Tag Archive | "Yield curve"

Why We Can’t Wait for the Next Recession


It’s coming… the next economic slowdown.

Panic in the market.  Jobs lost.  Businesses broke.  Banks closed.  Pensions torn asunder.

We should not wait for this to happen.

If you are filled with dread when someone speaks of recessions, read on.

Recessions are the best times of opportunity for a rare few. Those who are clued in find recessions the greatest starting place for making money.  See why below.

fed graph

The chart of the yield gap above shows why the next recession will reshape our economy as we know it.

The US economy will near 10 years of expansion by the end of 2018… just a month from now.

There’s been steady growth that’s not too hot and not too cold.

That might seem good, but expansion for this length means just one thing: a recession is coming and the graph above reinforces that thought.

There have only been two expansions that lasted as long as this latest one.  To match the 120-month boom in the 1990s, the economy only needs to keep growing past January 2019.

We are just two months away from a record expansion.

Yes the economy can make a new record in its history of growth.  Such a record will simply mean that the current expansion is near a correction and the chart explains why.

This is uncharted financial territory.  Interest rates have remained very low for almost ten years.

Rather than help the middle and lower classes put more money in their bank accounts, during this expansion inequities of have skyrocketed.

Tax cuts have helped the rich more than the middle class.  Tax increases have added leverage to stock prices so they are more likely than usual to crash hard.

Federal debt’s at an all time high and the budget deficit is soaring above $1.0 trillion.

Watch the yield gap.

The yield gap is the difference in interest rates between two year and ten year government bonds. Ten year bonds almost always pay higher interest rates than the two year bonds.

When this gap or curve flattens and the interest rate of the two year bond closes in on the ten year rate, it’s a sign of economic trouble and a recession ahead.

A San Francisco Federal Reserve economic letter outlined the value of the yield curve as an economic forecaster.

The Fed letter shows that inversion has preceded every recession in the last 60 years.

The yield gap does not have to invert for a recession to start, but this is a reliable warning indicator.

Watch the yield gap carefully and plan early for a recession.

The recession will arrive.  We do not know when… simply that every day it’s closer.

Don’t get caught by surprise.

Gary

One way to prepare for a recession is to have a business that doubles when economic growth is down.  Learn how below.

Go Try Things

 

Here’s a phrase that can make your life better with everlasting wealth … “Go Try Things!”

This phrase can help you grow richer, feel better and be healthier… beginning right now.

gary-scott-images

Here I am working at home.  “Go try things”… so you gain the benefits of earning globally from home.

Perhaps the importance of what should be shared began in Hong Kong over 50 years ago, may 1968.

A warm South China Sea fog swept up the mid levels like a spider’s  web in fast air… then hung like a moist blanket over the thin ribbon of asphalt that snaked the ridge line through the jungle ahead.  Low city rumbles blunted the green tropical freshness and fought nature’s cacophony of dawn.

Bowen Road runs flat as a pancake through the mid-levels of Hong Kong.  I lived there for several years decades ago and took early morning runs most days.  Arriving shortly after my 21st birthday, my task was to build a sales team that sold American mutual funds to the Hong Kong Chinese.

That turned out to be a bad idea.  The Hong Kong market was booming and the US stock market dead.

Yet trying this, led me into the business of writing about how Americans could invest in Hong Kong. Many of my readers made fortunes and for me, a career was born.

A decade later after a move to London… distortions were spotted in the cost of Manx corporations.  This led me shortly to the Isle of Man… overlooking Douglas Bay… a brisk ocean air off the harbor carried mournful seagull songs into our room at the Palace Hotel.  I was looking for cheap corporations but found a real estate treasure instead.  Years of real estate tours helped readers start businesses there and they picked up unimaginable profits… because we tried new things.

However Britain’s gray winters soon drove me to the sun.  I found myself watching sun rays sparkle on the emerald prisms of cool, spring fed pools.  They reflected and danced, rainbows that glimmered on towering mahogany, banana, stately palm.  Green vistas shimmered, easy paced in the afternoon sun and sweet, tropical perfumes floated in the breeze.

Merri, and I were sitting on a huge veranda, overlooking a vast expanse of lush, green, countryside watching our kids joyfully ride their horses up the mountains in the Dominican Republic.  A tropical breeze flowed over the porch cooling the sunny afternoon.  My portable laptop computer sat before me.  Working, I had dozed off, lulled by katydid songs, the soft breeze and my lost thoughts.   That was work and the sudden realization of how wonderful that work was shocked me into understanding that having an international business is the best way to security, wealth, freedom and fulfillment in life.  That realization was the foundation of our publishing business that helped readers learn how to have a micro business by trying new things.

Our business has evolved over 50 years from Hong Kong to London to Europe to the Isle of Man to the Dominican Republic to Florida to North Carolina to Ecuador.

Each time because we were trying things of interest and fascination to us.

Not once did the business turn out how we expected… but there was some success… happy customers…. good deeds…. great service… profit… fulfillment and adventure all originating from just trying some things.

Our publications help readers improve their lives, gain greater independence, increase financial safety and dramatically gain more freedom to lead the type of life they desire… by helping them “go try things”.

What can be more satisfying then that?

Gaining fulfillment and earning anywhere do not have to stop with age either.

Retirement age is a myth!  You can earn anywhere at any age.  An article entitled “THEY WON’T QUIT” sums up the vast importance of trying and the benefits you can gain when you “go try things”.

The article says:  Experts say Baby Boomers are starting to work past conventional retirement age, a trend fueled by an uncertain economy, improved health in older life and an understanding that staying engaged leads to a better sense of well-being.

Hitting 65 and “getting the gold watch” is not on the must-do list anymore for many people, says Jacquelyn James, research director at the Sloan Center on Aging and Work at Boston College.

“Their emphasis isn’t just to keep working but to do things that add life to years and not years to life. 

Get Gold in the Golden Years

People who retire at age 60, can easily spend 35 years in retirement.  That would be tedious.  Job satisfaction grows and stress levels drop with age, so why not earn doing something you love in the golden years.

There isn’t a script for 65 anymore. We recommend the same action for those in their 50s 60s and beyond as for those in their 20s: Go try things.

I would like to help you make your life better with a business that can earn anywhere and have expanded this focus in our self publishing and business course.

You can learn how to gain “earning flexibility” so you can earn… mobile or not… full or part time… young or old.    We have many boomers take our micro business course.  Other participants are in their 20s and 30s and want to get started while avoiding the rat race.  Others in their 40s and 50s are looking for ways out of the rat race.

Technology and economically speaking, you have a a perfect time now to have your own micro business. Communications and computers do most of the work that previously required labor and staff.   Outsourcing and virtual offices, plus internet marketing mean a one man (or woman or couple) show can accomplish incredible things.

Let’s Make Earning Easy

The lessons in our course are highly practical and usable because they are a reflection of what Merri and I are doing… now.   You won’t hear any ivory tower theory…. just the realities of business as we see them in the marketplace today… and how we respond to these conditions.

Our lessons focus on how to use modern technology to start global micro businesses… that can create valuable extra income with minimal investments of time and capital.

You learn how to start small and build with stepping stones and a harmonious focus… how to build a successful at home business via the internet using several profit generating phrases at Google.   You gain the secrets of how you can use words to create your own global income as well at our seminar.

The course shares how to use the first four of “Seven Ps”  (Person, Problem and Promise, Product) to zero in on key word phrases.  Then you learn how to use the Fifth P Promise to develop new customers. The Sixth P is the Prospecting Path and Seventh P is the Presentation to create income.

Then you gain all the facts on how to try the seven Ps.

This knowledge has really helped previous course subscribers. Here is what one previous subscriber shared:

“Gary , I have been working on my website, healthy-holistic-living.com site and I figure it is time for another update. It is really hard to believe it, but my site just keeps growing and growing and I am now averaging 2000 visitors per day!

“What I find to be most amazing is that in just a few short months my site is #1 out of over a million sites and sometimes even millions of sites! As you always say the internet is the ‘Great Equalizer’ anybody given the right tools can compete on the internet.“Below are some of my search results. I only listed GOOGLE and YAHOO but you can find similar results on both MSN and ASK.com.

GOOGLE:

#1 out of 1,190,000 …………………………“definition healthy spirit “

#1 and #2 out of 1,210,000.………………….“benefits to living a holistic life “

#1 out of 1,260,000 …………………………“gaining a healthy mind “

#1 and #2 out of 1,260,000 …………………“benefits to living a holistic life “

#2 out of 935,000 …………………………..“holistic lifestyle tips “

You will learn how to use the same system to expand (or start) your publishing business globally!

Small publishers gain during economic disaster.

Publishing can do well in good times and bad.

Our sales doubled during the last recession.  Our list of readers increased over 100%.

This is how good, value oriented business grow by the way.   They should increase steadily in good times.  They do not get caught overextending in euphoria. Then during bad times they are in a position to do really well!   Since the economy picked up our business growth has slowed but business is still growing. This is how good, value oriented business grow by the way.

Knowing the micro business philosophies we follow can help you invest better and can help you create an internet success if you desire.

The Western economy has changed… probably forever.  The old ways are gone and those who held jobs… or still have work in the private sector have lost the most.

We are in an era of global structural change… in economics… in society and in the way we work because technology brings us low cost administration, low cost access to data, low cost communication, and low cost travel, plus the opening of markets beyond logic that rely more on passion and experience than on efficiency and cost.

There is such an abundance of opportunity that Merri and I have created an entire system to help you have your own publishing business.

Began working at home.  Build up a lost of tens of thousands of buyers. Make a little extra income or made millions, but even when busy employ only a few people to help.

You can do the same with a system contained in our electronic self publishing correspondence course

Thousands have profited from this course which we updated in its fifth edition.

For example, Ben, an investor from Pennsylvania used International Business Made EZ and wrote:

“Jam packed with vital information. My head is spinning. Thank goodness this is all backed up by your manual. This is a true and cherished gift. Your tips on low cost business are a blessing! Thank you once again for an outstanding course. The value far exceeds the price.”

In just a week, you can be well on your way to income and freedom to live wherever you choose!  The course “Self Fulfilled How to be a Publisher” shows you how to take advantage of income earning secrets.

Secret #1: Look for ways to gain 1,000% returns in business. The wealthiest families in the world today come from global businesses.  Learn how margins can be so incredible that few would believe them. Learn how to use stories to make huge shifts in the value of products.  Take for example our friend Earl who is a dog trainer.  On a trip to Ecuador clay whistles in the market place were for sale at .35 cents each. By calling them dog whistles Earl was able to sell them at $9.95,  a whopping 2,700% mark up!

Secret #2: Create and market your product everywhere using niche marketing.  There are 11 steps to create the perfect product.  You learn them with International Business Made EZ.  Understand how to review ideas, test focus, aim at markets. Learn where and how to get your data and get others to provide your marketing material for you almost FREE.

You’ll learn how to turn advertising dollars into a fortune.  You’ll learn how to create your own ads and when to use the internet… search engines… pay per click… classifieds, space ads, direct mail or word of mouth… even flea markets and roadside stands in some cases.

See how to build a PR list and social business network on the World Wide Web to gain thousands of dollars in free publicity.  I even share my most secret results on my marketing so you will know why sometimes you sell more units of a product at $49 instead of $29.

Learn how one couple used ads about retirement to supplement their retirement income and received free trips all over the world.

Learn how we have made money over the Internet (specific details, specific experiences, hard earned knowledge we have over the last 20 years!)   With an inexpensive computer you can easily run a business from home and still have tons of time left over- even if you are computer challenged.  Merri and I have certainly proven this.  We were one of the first out there with a successful website and still rank high today even with millions of competitors.  The secrets in the course include a step-by-step approach.

Merri and I with our webmaster, David Cross, were leaders in beginning internet micros businesses and have sold millions over the web.  You gain ways to earn global income over the net from that experience as well.

At www.garyascott.com our daily emailed messages are sent to over 20,o00 readers every day.

You learn the income producing power of defined focus and immediate repetition to get good search engine rankings and sales.

Here is an example when I worked on the phrase “multicurrency investing”.

google ranking

This was a competitive phrase at Google with sites from US News, Toronto Dominion Bank, Citibank, HSBC Bank all huge competitors, but we to the date of this writing rank in the top three of organic rankings.

You can earn successfully while living anywhere because people of all ages are doing this.  Technology wiped out any disadvantages of age and gender.  A USA Today article entitled “The new entrepreneurs: Americans over 50” explains that older business people often start one person ventures in home offices using technology that did not exist a few years ago.

The article gave an example of Franny Martin who launched a cookie company at age 56 and quickly rose to a half million dollar income started her web site, which attracts cookie customers from around the world, with equipment that cost only $3,000.

The course is arranged in an easy to understand style.  Everything is explained in vivid detail. We share all, how we have done it ourselves. The course is full of business ideas and case studies based on our 42 years of experience.

The course gives names, resources and addresses of contacts in marketing, printing, plus attorneys, accountants, Internet whiz kids who can give help. This is not theoretical. It describes on a step-by-step basis, how Merri and I built a multi-million dollar international micro business in just 7 years and how you can do the same.

Terry T., a friend and attorney from Germany took the course and enjoyed this fact when he stated, “What I like most is that it is a nuts and bolts course-not pie in the sky.”

  • Learn How to Gain Total Security. Learn how and why the global economy makes employment riskier because change is no longer an option. See ways to become and agent of and profiteer from change never a victim of change.
  • Learn How to Perfect a Lifestyle. Living as you choose is important because life is short. Fortunately matching what you love with what you do in business actually increases profits.

George K an MD from California confirmed this when he wrote: “Your course helped me to crystallize and clarify ideas I’ve been considering that relate to my interests in writing, travel and ecology. They showed ways to combine them in a personally engaging and potentially profitable way. I especially appreciated the practical advice on organizing and marketing-turning ideas into products that sell and make a profit.”

  • Learn  How to Choose the Best Legal Structure. How to use Non-Controlled Corporations. How to gain freedom, asset protection and privilege.

A retired railway executive from Michigan picked up on this aspect and said, “Your course opened my eyes to the merits, profits, and prestige of becoming an international businessman, particularly the idea of doing business in Canada for distribution in the U.S. (for total tax protection).”

  • Learn How to Market Your Publication. Learn truths that rule the market place. Gain knowledge on subjects like….How to Make the Truth Exciting. Create your own Sales Story. How to Deal With Cultural Differences. How to Build Global Lists and Use International PR. How to Spot the National Psyche and Quadruple Profits With Multimedia Marketing. How to Choose Businesses as Pioneers or as Settlers.

Tom K., an engineer from Ohio, cashed in on this idea and wrote, “Basically, I learned the selling and marketing implications. The course is absolutely worth the price!”

Learn How to Obtain What You Need from the Net. How to Use the Web to Reach your Market. How to develop your site, target your market and start getting visits. The top ten Internet tips to use, the top ten traps to avoid, and many other lessons our Webmaster has used in his 20 years on the net. This system is so simple anyone can use it.

“Thank you for taking the mystery out of business and bringing it down to the ham and eggs level.” L – Chiropractor – Oklahoma”

Learn the Importance of Business Evolution. It is vital to success and fulfillment that your business has balance and grows in harmony.

Rachel B, a housewife from Washington, enjoyed learning this fact and told us, “The idea of starting at the lowest cost level was terrific.”

Self Fulfilled – How to be a Publisher contains all these secrets and more.

One delegate, Ted T. a publisher from California said, “Your course is outstanding! Just two hours of study alone were worth more than the price.”

While Kelly, a business woman from Atlanta, exclaimed, “It was great going through your steps, being 100% honest without fear of giving trade secrets since you have paid the price (to gain this knowledge).”

This correspondence course is for those who would like their own international business for fun and profit. The course also helps business people, brokers and professionals, insurance agents and marketers who want to enhance their existing business or build a second source of income.

Business people or professionals who want to add an extra profit center to their business or who want to change their business entirely will benefit. Those who want more control over their career can profit. Plus those who love global travel and want to turn their trips into profitable tax deductions!

Even older entrepreneurs are taking advantage of technology. One of our friends and clients, Mickey E., a 72 year old real estate broker, began a small global business. With just a computer and internet, she created publications that attracted English real estate buyers. This allowed her to become a top sales person in the biggest real estate firm (selling over a billion dollars of real estate a year) in town.

If you want fun, freedom, extra income and fulfillment with your own full or part time business that earns anywhere, or want to increase your existing business, you can profit by this course.

This course is also for couples who want their own business or who want to have a business together or a family business.

This is the perfect course for those who can no longer find employment, who are looking for ways to earn abroad and who wish to retire and supplement their income.

An employed couple from New York wrote, “We found the course interesting and informative. We were inspired to start work on an international project. When we came down, we had no idea on what to do.”

There is nowhere else to gain such a unique network of information and help. The contacts are well worth more than the course alone. We have a successful international business with over 20,000  readers in 82 countries so you gain practical current business contacts that are active now.

Are you interested in a global micro business? It can be small and part time mainly to gain prestige, fun and tax benefits. It can be full fledged and rake in thousands a day.

The course is an absolute bargain. Our goal and guarantee is that you will be able to start and run your own global micro business.

If you are not fully satisfied in any way, just tell us with 60 days and we’ll send you a 100% full refund with no questions asked.

Whether you are retired, an investor, chiropractor, doctor, dentist, professional or already own your own business, this offers another way to make money, to turn your passion into profit. We guarantee that we have shared all we know to help you start and run your own international business. Enjoy and live a life of following your Passion to Profit… through a publishing business.

 Those who worked the hardest lived the longest — the responsible and successful achievers thrived in every way, especially when dedicated to things and people beyond themselves.

Gary

“The course gave me insight on what to do with widening my client base.” M – Real Estate Broker – Florida

“The course helped me in several ways. #1: To realize that it is not only OK but preferable to start small. #2: I feel I have a workable program to have my own newsletter-my own passion!” T B – Professional, Washington

“The course fulfilled all my expectations providing all the details necessary to start a business from creating the idea, through marketing including the systems necessary to implement our ideas.” B C – Chiropractor – California

“The first thing that strikes you when you start this course is how quickly and simply Gary cuts through many of the common misunderstandings about doing business.  In fact anyone with even a small local business could learn a wealth of practical marketing and sales strategies and tips.”

So simple even my Mom can use it.

This course is designed to make the business of publishing so easy that even my Mom, when she was a retired 76 year old grandmother, could participate. (She learned how to turn her doll collecting hobby into a real publishing business which adds zest in her life and turns her hobby into a tax deductible expense.) Yet the program is so comprehensive even sophisticated business people will gain.

More Comments from Readers

“I completed International Business Made EZ in a (long!) weekend and – unlike many business books and courses – I didn’t fall asleep whilst reading it! I found it helpful to refer back to whilst I put my business ideas into action and the business and banking contacts in the course were worth their weight in gold.”

“There is a lot of rubbish written about business and ‘get rich quick schemes’ and I seem to receive some sort of junk mail or spam e-mail most days trying to sell me a ‘get rich quick’ idea, but I found Gary’s course genuinely different.”

“Firstly, the International Business Made EZ course is written by someone who has tried and proven his international business and then chose to share those practical examples in a course rather than as ‘pie-in-the-sky theory’. Secondly, although the course would show even hard-nosed, skeptical business people a few things about doing business internationally, it is written in a completely unassuming and open way and this makes it easy for anyone to gain maximum benefit in the minimum amount of time from the course.”

This electronic course is delivered online and costs $299. You gain incredible education and the importance of the knowledge for you and your family’s wealth. The course is so complete Merri and I extend our “no fooling around-complete satisfaction guarantee.”

If you are not fully satisfied in any way, just tell us with 60 days and we’ll send you a 100% full refund with no questions asked.

Does that sound fair enough?

There has never been a time when the opportunity for small businesses abroad has been so outstanding. Expand your borders now! Increase your economic security freedom, independence and success. Order now!

To order Self Fulfilled – How to be a Publisher for $299.   Click Here.

Gary

 

Economic Cyclical Danger


The time has come to review the economic cycle.  Many economic events suggest we are seeing a shift in the economic cycle.

market-value

There are three phases in the economic cycle;

Phase I:  Recession

Lower Inflation Expected
Interest Rates Come Down
Depressed Demand
Rising Unemployment
PE Multiples Contract

This phase which we saw in 2007 and 2008 is an ideal time to invest in bonds.

Phase II:  Recovery

Inverted Yield Curve
Rush for Liquidity
Authorities Relax Money Supply
High Unemployment
High Level of Uncertainty

This phase which began in 2009 is an ideal time to invest in shares.

Phase III: Boom

Rising Inflation
Short Rates Pushed Up
Bond Yields Rise
Falling Unemployment
PE Multiples Expand

There are many signs that the economy is transitioning into this phase.  This phase is an ideal time to invest in cash and short term investments.

wsj graph

The chart above is from a recent Wall Street Journal article “Economy Up, Stocks Down? Don’t Be Surprised!” (1).  This article outlines one reason why there is increasing danger of a stock market correction.

The article says:  Investors bullish about a Trump capital expenditure boom must realize that buybacks, one of the bull market’s drivers, may suffer.

Weak corporate investment has been one of the economy’s great flaws. An expected boost in capital spending—driven by rising confidence, stronger profits and tax reform—is one reason the stock market has soared.  But investors are confusing the benefits that rising spending would bring to the economy with its short-term impact on the stock market. A boom in corporate investment could be a drag on stocks.

As the economy struggled to grow, companies lacked the confidence to write big checks, except when they bought competitors. Instead they have been purchasing their own shares furiously. Companies in the S&P 500 have spent more than $2.5 trillion on share buybacks in the five years through 2016’s third quarter, according to FactSet. In the third quarter of 2016 alone buyback champs Apple Inc. and General Electric Co. repurchased $11.5 billion worth of their shares combined.  Yet the third quarter marked the second consecutive period of declining buybacks compared with a year earlier. In dollar terms, the drop was the largest since 2009, and it could get worse if more cash is diverted to new factories and equipment.”

However… in this boom phase there are better options due to the lack of synchronicity in stocks markets.   When the US market drops other stock markets can rise.   In fact many investors fleeing the US dollar or US stock market can cause other markets to rise.   These investors sell US shares and put the money in non dollar stocks

Take extra steps during inflationary times. Cash can be a really lousy idea.

Warren Buffet mentioned this problem when he said: Clinging to cash equivalents or long-term government bonds at present yields is almost certainly a terrible policy if continued for long.  Holders of these instruments, of course, have felt increasingly comfortable – in fact, almost smug – in following this policy as financial turmoil has mounted.  They regard their judgment confirmed when they hear commentators proclaim “cash is king,” even though that wonderful cash is earning close to nothing and will surely find its purchasing power eroded over time.

An alternative in Phase III is good value non US dollar stock markets.

When you invest in good value, you put the most basic power  to work to increase your savings and wealth.   This power creates wealth based on when you buy, not when you sell.   The purchase price of your investments are the main factor that determines your profit later on.

You can’t just rely on an appreciating market or wishful thinking to create profit, especially when the market is at a frothy all time high.  Share prices can collapse at any hour now.

The value of stocks is based on dividends, and long-term increase in value.  Value is based on total long term returns.   Value is created when well-run companies with strong finances and a history of shareholder-friendly management practices can be purchased at lower price than competitors and at a price lower than is usual.

There are only two ways to build your wealth in the stock market: You profit when share prices rise.  Over the long-term, share price rise because business grows or shares are repurchased.  You profit from dividends.

Good value shares are those that have the most profits and pay the highest dividends at the lowest price.   This is why we track the value analysis of Keppler Asset Management.   We can what value means in Keppler’s latest quarterly valuation of developed stock markets.

keppler

Which would you rather own, a portfolio that pays a dividend of 3.44% per annum purchased at 1.79 times book value (the MSCI European Index) or a portfolio  that pays 2.07% per annum and was purchased at 2.89 times book value (MSCI US Index)?

Innumerable factors, such as the economic cycle cause share prices to fluctuate up and down short term.  Long term, only one factor is the motivator of price, value.

US equity markets have risen to all time highs.  Better values in overseas developed stock markets have grown.  The economic cycle is making the US market riskier and the good value markets even  more special now.

See below how to develop slow moving, good value portfolios, that reduce time, effort as they increase profitability and safety.

Gary

WSJ.com:  Economy up stocks down don’t be surprised

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll Really Cash In Next Time”

Periods of good investing performance are always followed by periods that are bad.

Think about this…

The US dollar rose almost 50% above its lows of 2011.   Last year the greenback was at its highest level versus the Chinese yuan since 2008.  India’s rupee was also at an all-time low against the buck.  Other Asian currencies, the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit have plunged to depths not seen since the financial crisis of 1997-98.  The euro, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar had crashed.  In other words, the US dollar has been in a period of high performance.

The greenback is in a free fall.

Yet there is a bigger economic problem that can ruin the purchasing power of your cash faster than you can imagine.

While the dollar was rising non US governments and businesses accumulated almost ten trillion dollars of debt denominated in US dollars.

The terror in this debt is that it acts as a destructive and very rapid financial amplifier.  Dollar debt is like a short position.  When the dollar rises, borrowers scramble to short-cover their position by selling their own currency.  This defeats the purpose of their hedging as it increases the strength of the dollar.  So they short even more.  Those short sales create an upward dollar spiral.  The buck rises higher and higher, based entirely on fear and speculation.

When that leverage energy is spent the currency stalls and plummets out of control… like now.

The last time we saw such a upwards spiral was from 1980 to 1985.  The dollar rose 50% in those five years.

Guess what?

Then it collapsed 50% in just two years.

The US dollar is in a similar position as at the beginning of Ronald Reagan’s first term.  This was a time of widening budget deficits, rising interest rates and a US dollar surge.  This created a problem then, as it does now, and creates huge opportunity for those in the know.

The rise of the dollar, the debt and the US stock market creates an especially dangerous conflict because Donald Trump wants to balance America’s trade.  A stronger dollar makes this impossible because it pushes up the cost of US material, US labor and US exports.

The overpriced dollar, the poor value of the US stock market (compared to other markets) create a dollar crisis and a special opportunity for you and me as investors.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.  I had wished I could have invested more.

Now those circumstances are headed our way again.

And I have…

invested more… a lot more.

The swollen stock market prices, huge dollar denominated debt and weakening dollar are three patterns that can create a fast 50% profit.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.

There is a way to accumulate good value equities denominated in the following currencies of special strength, including the Euro, Canadian dollar, Singapore dollar, British pound, New Taiwan dollar and Chinese yuan.

The report reveals 21 special non dollar equities that have the greatest opportunity for safety and appreciation.

I kept the report short and simple, but include links to 153 pages of global stock market and asset allocation analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to inexpensively accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hit the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep the report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

 

 

Economic Cycle Review


It is time for an economic cycle review.

Over the weekend I truly enjoyed speaking at Jyske Global Asset Manager’s seminar in Laguna Beach, California.

During that seminar I shared five reasons why we should expect a pull back in the US stock market now.

One reason is seasonality which we reviewed at this site in April.

Another reason is that we are seeing a shift in the economic cycle.

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There are three phases in the economic cycle.

Phase I Recession

Lower Inflation Expected
Interest Rates Come Down
Depressed Demand
Rising Unemployment
PE Multiples Contract

This phase which we saw in 2007 and 2008 is an ideal time to invest in bonds.

Phase II Recovery

Inverted Yield Curve
Rush for Liquidity
Authorities Relax Money Supply
High Unemployment
High Level of Uncertainty

This phase which began in 2009 is an ideal time to invest in shares.

Phase III Boom

Rising Inflation
Short Rates Pushed Up
Bond Yields Rise
Falling Unemployment
PE Multiples Expand

There are many signs that the economy is transitioning into this phase and this phase is an ideal time to invest in cash and short term investments.

However… when in the boom phase we need to take some extra steps because cash during inflationary times can be a really lousy idea.

Warren Buffet mentioned this problem when he said: Clinging to cash equivalents or long-term government bonds at present yields is almost certainly a terrible policy if continued for long. Holders of these instruments, of course, have felt increasingly comfortable – in fact, almost smug – in following this policy as financial turmoil has mounted. They regard their judgment confirmed when they hear commentators proclaim “cash is king,” even though that wonderful cash is earning close to nothing and will surely find its purchasing power eroded over time.

We’ll look at the other three reasons why we can expect equities to falter now… plus ideas on cash substitute investments in upcoming messages.

See a Galapagos special here.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

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There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

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However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

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Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

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Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

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The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

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Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary