Tag Archive | "wikileaks"

Greater Mobility – Less Freedom


Do we actually pay to give up our freedom?  

The lyrics to the 1970’s hot “Moon Shadow” points out how the  law of  opposite and equal reactions can influence our lives.

cat stevens

Listen to Moon Shadow on Youtube here.

“Oh, if I ever lose my hands, Oh, if I won’t have to work no more. … Yes, if I ever lose my eyes, Oh, if I won’t have to cry no more. … Yes, if I ever lose my legs, Oh, if I won’t have to walk no more.”

Surely we don’t want to lose our legs.  But this is kinda what humanity did when it embraced the car.  Maybe we gave up our eyes when we had artificial lighting for the special lights at dawn and dusk.  Maybe we gave up our hands when we allowed the TV instead of arts and crafts to absorb our free time.

In each case, our loss was compensated by enormous gains in productivity.  We increased our control over the dimensions of time and space.  The exchange may have even been a good deal.  The point is, there is a cost  and we should know the price of anything we buy (or buy into) and what to do with the gains and/or the loss.

So what did we give up for the convenience of our electronic world?  What are the costs of the internet, smart phone and smart TV?  Is the price denominated in the currency of privacy and freedom?

Let’s think about this.  Someone could be watching you right now, through your phone or computer.

wikileaks

This week, WikiLeaks will begin a new series of leaks on the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. Code-named “Vault 7” (1).  This introduces details relating to the CIA’s global covert hacking program that can turn Apple’s iPhone, Google’s Android and Microsoft’s Windows and even Samsung TVs, which could be turned into covert microphones.

Probably no one is watching, but they could be!  Most certainly your internet or cell phone activity is tracked.  A record remains of every word we speak, write, hear and see.

“So what?”, we ask.

One example why we want privacy came to me from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) this January.  The FDIC, the government agency that is there to protect you and me.  The FDCI explained that one of its employees had loaded data about me and my bank account (and other people) on a computer when some were leaving employment.  This included my name, Social Security number, address, birth date, account numbers and balances.

Here is another reason.  If you are a Boomer as I am, you may have some wonderful memories of Cat Stevens and his great music.   Yet after his conversion to Islam and name change to Jusuf Islam he was one time put on a watch list and refused entry into the US.  Does the fact that you are reading about and I am writing about Cat Stevens put us on some list?  This does not seem very plausible, but the plain and simple fact is, it could.

Not Just Big Brother.  The government is not the only entity we should be concerned about seeing every word we speak, write, hear and see.

A recent Wall Street Journal article, “Congress Moves to Strike Internet Privacy Rules From Obama Era” (2) tells how companies like Verizon, Comcast or AT&T can continue tracking and sharing people’s browsing and app activity without permission.

It seems unlikely that we would be put on any terror related list for watching Cat Stevens, but it is possible, even likely, that we will be led to advertising about music by Cat Stevens or related music or products.  Most certainly our act of pulling up a youtube recording of Cat Stevens will have some impact on what advertising we see.

The new congressional action reduces strong online privacy rules and let’s broadband providers collect data on us and sell even our sensitive information.  Details about our health, finance and families can be collected, collated, used, shared or sold to the highest bidder without our permission.

The article says:  A company like AT&T or Sprint can tell the time people wake up by when they check the clock on their phone, or see where users go to lunch or whom they visit.  By tracking a user’s browsing of medical websites, a carrier can also determine if that person might have an illness.

We are paying these communication companies to  provide us benefits, but there is a hidden cost of privacy loss because they can sell all the information about us they collect.   We never know the price either.

So what have we given up for the substantial gains of convenience and productivity we achieve?   How will this impact our lives?  What impact will this have on our privacy and freedom?  Will we lose control over the information we receive?  These questions are definitely some food for thought.

There are good people and bad, like in every business, who are government employees and who work for companies that now have unfettered access to our private personal information.

What can we do about it?

Most of us are not willing to give up our computers, smart phones, the Internet or smart TVs.  Even modern cameras can track us. They have a GPS, (my Leica V-LUX 30 pocket camera that I carry almost everywhere does) so we even lose privacy over the pictures we take.  I get an Allstate discount for having a device on my car that records when I drove, how fast, how long and how hard I brake.  I like that savings.

If the government wants the data, I don’t know how to avoid this.

There is little we can do to escape the marketing decisions that publications make as to which news will be broadcast to us.  Here are several really simple steps we can take to broaden our information horizons.

First, subscribe to publications (in print or online) where the subscribers (not the information) are in different parts of the world.   As mentioned, I take three editions of the Wall Street Journal.

gary scott

Plus, I had a program created (shown above) for my desktop  that gives me one click links to publications where the subscribers are in different places, countries, regions and continents.

Second, when it comes to investing, I rely on mathematically based financial information news to find good value instead of the economic conjecture that is in almost all the news.  I track three sources of financial thinking at ENR Asset Management, Tradestops and Keppler Asset Management to find conclusions about value created by distortions and trends.

Third, subscribe to varied information, that interests you and does not.  For example, I subscribe to blogs about gardening and growing food, water, weather, toys (I have no interest really), stocks, high fashion cloths (again no interest at all), vision, and scientific advances.   I continually shift the mix and open and click through sites I have no interest in and do not read.  This befuddles the algorithms and increases the odds that the information that flows to me will be a little more random… like life.

This brings a delight of unplanned, impromptu, unbidden data flowing to me.  Like the gurgle of a murmuring creak, this erratic stream adds serendipity into the brook of information that expands my thinking and who I am.  Life is a walk along a random path.  Loosening the restrictions on what we learn allows the flukes, the times when we have lucky breaks by stumbling upon the unexpected to fall in place so displays of pure dumb luck can grace our lives.

The marketing geniuses that run the advertising universe online and in print rely on patterns.  They want to fit you into a mold.  When we break the average cast and let the grander designs of nature lead us, we gain freedom and independence of thought and can enjoy the frightful delight of evolution in our world.

Gary

(1) Wikileaks: Vault7

(2) www.nytimes.com: Congress Moves to Strike Internet Privacy Rules From Obama Era

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere

A huge economic struggle is taking place.

If that struggle is lost what’s left of our privacy, the safety of our food supply, the control over our health, the safety of our money and even the sanctity of our opinions and thoughts could be lost.

Markets and social order can collapse at any time.  Schools are not safe from shooters on the rampage.  Streets are in danger of terrorists ramming their cars into riders on bikes.  We are no longer safe… in shopping centers, at festivals, even in the church.

Yet the bigger danger grows.   This struggle is taking place, right now.

You can read about tiny parts of this conflict daily in the news.   Most of the clash however is hidden from view.  There are horrible consequences hidden beneath the visible spin.

There is an association forming that can ruin our health care, nutrition and the environment.  This group an control what you read on the internet, see all the words in our phone calls, watch what we see on TV and slant the trends we learn about in social media.

Everything you write or say can be recorded and used  to control what you hear and read.

The warning shot, above the surface, was the merger between Bayer and Monsanto.

Bayer and Monsanto each have each developed poisons that are harsh on our ecosystem.

The merger of the two firms should have been stopped to ensure human and planetary survival.

But these massive companies have invested so much into lobbying and financing political campaigns that they have the ability to shape political systems to their own end.

Scientific studies found that neonicotinoid pesticides made by Bayer have almost eradicated some bird populations and flying insects.

These pesticides, along with Monsanto’s toxic herbicide Roundup, have delivered a one-two punch against  butterflies, honeybees and birds. Roundup has also been linked to over 40 human diseases, including cancer.

But both the US and the European Union approved the $66 billion merger of Bayer and Monsanto.  This union not only increases the potential of adding toxic poison to the environment but also gives this giant form control over genetically modified (GMO) seeds that have reduced seed diversity globally.

This union is horrible enough, yet it’s only the tip of the iceberg.

Seven companies are involved in a more sinister plot.

The momentum of this dangerous alliance has picked up faster than anticipated.

I began researching and preparing a report “Learn Anywhere, Earn Everywhere” when the Bayer-Monsanto merger was the big deal.   They were two of the seven firms involved in this almost invisible take-over of our food and medical services as well as the internet, cell phones and TV.

I started researching when I saw the hidden depths of this Bayer-Monsanto merger.  I was truly concerned and shocked because my research discovered that the consolidation of Bayer and Monsanto is not the biggest merger nor the most dangerous by far.

I miscalculated how much time we have.  I went to work on the report right away, taking my time to delve deeply, but even before I have finished the report, events have begun to heat up.   The pace of this hidden unification has increased.  Now another merger is taking place, far more destructive and the alliance has an incredible lobby program working to make sure that the deal goes through.

A triad of three huge concerns and four smaller ones with hundreds of billions of dollars have built one of the most formidable lobbying operations in Washington.  Nearly 100 registered lobbyists are already on retainer and they include former members of Congress.   One company in this heptagon is also the largest donor to federal lawmakers.

The donations we know of equal more than $11 million paid to 374 of the House’s 435 members and 85 of the Senate’s 100 members in this election cycle.

This deadly seven point affiliation is likely to snake into almost every part of our livelihood.

One part of the cartel will increase our dependence on modified food that can purposely increase our needs for pharmaceuticals manufactured and sold at outrageous prices by another arm of the group.

The organizations will know more about us than any other group in existence.  They will (in fact they already are) act as spies for the government.  This amalgamation will control what ads we see, the products we buy, listen into our phone calls and even monitor and influence what we see on TV.

Sadly most of the public will not even know that this fusion has taken place.  Life will appear to go on as normal.  They won’t even see the change as what’s left of their good life which could be drained away by corporate malfeasance.

This is why I am rushing a report to you so you can be one of the few who avoid the ruin of this alliance and gain rather than lose from the shift.

The report “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” contains seven steps we can take to gain benefits and protection from this cartel.

Here is some background.  At the beginning of the 20th century, Carl Duisberg, the head of Bayer, created a profit sharing cartel from three firms BASF, Bayer and Agfa, called the Dreibund (Triple Alliance) or little IG.

This German chemical association dominated commerce everywhere under the name of IG Farben, the largest company in Europe, the 4th largest anywhere and the largest chemical company in the world.

Because “Power Corrupts” this company morphed into something truly evil before and during the Second World War.

After WWII IG Farben was considered so morally corrupt it could not be allowed to continue to exist and was split into its original constituent companies.  Today Agfa, BASF, Sanofi and Bayer (now expanded) remain.

This is where facts become truly scary.  Some of these very same companies have merged with other mega concerns to create a new American Dreibund (a Triple Alliance dominating the USA).   This new cartel has such power it can take control of your food, your medicine and even influence, if not control, what you read and the information you access for health and wealth.  Even worse, they can monitor everything you do and give it to others in government and business as well.

From a political point of view we cannot do much about this alliance.   The cartel has hundreds of billions of dollars and hundreds of lobbyists.  They are making their big move right now, to take advantage of the current political distraction.  They know that after an election politicians are willing to accept bad news because it will be forgotten in four years.

In addition their greatest enemy in the government has only a couple of months left as the head of the Federal agency that will fight this cartel.

Only a few people will know how to take advantage of the shifts created from the results of this alliance.

The sooner we act, the greater the benefits.   This is why I want to rush my newest report “Live Anywhere-Earn Everywhere” to you.  This report shares how to protect what you have from this coalition that is taking over mainstream media, our food supply as well as our medical history, health care and communications.

Fortunately a loophole can set you free.  You can protect what you have and actually improve your situation, a lot.  Merri and I have already jumped though the loophole and want to share why and how you should too.

How to Gain Extra Freedom – While Almost Everyone Loses Theirs.  Become a Pruppie!

May I coin a new word, Pruppie?

We all know about preppers.  They believe that the world, as we know it, is about to end.  And we also know about Uppies, upward professionals as in Yuppies, young upward professionals.  Uppies expect their world to get better.

The reality is that our worlds have changed and for most of us, there is still great opportunity for a better lifestyle, yet the preppies could be right.

I invite you to join Merri and me as Pruppies, those who expect the world to get better and live and earn based on that expectation but enjoy a progressive lifestyle of freedom that also happens to prepare us for bad times as well as good.

Just in case… the world goes sideways… we will still survive and prosper anyway.  We do not give up anything much.  We can enjoy the good parts of the new economy, as we protect ourselves from what can be bad.

For example in this report, you’ll see how to make your dining room table bring you more control, more time, more income and more freedom.  After all, what can be more accessible than a dining room table?

ecuador-banks

You’ll even learn how to turn dining room tables into income and tax deductions as we have with these dining room tables we build out of local wood.

Let me be clear.  I expect that the world will get better, at least for the few who adapt and avoid the dangers the American Dreibund has planned for the public.  The wealth of the world, albeit with inequality, has continued to grow.  There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential and they even work well in disaster scenarios.

Let me provide one simple, concrete example.  Ginseng.

This is a great health root.  The demand is growing especially in China.  At times good dried Ginseng sells for $1,000 a pound!  This is an incredible and easy crop to grow.   The less care you give it, the more valuable it can become.  Yet if everything goes south, the health qualities will be good to have and make it an excellent barter item.  Once you know what to do with ginseng, it’s easy to grow in your back yard.

Even better one of the best kept secrets is that ginseng and 125 other medicinal crops that are currently unsustainable but can be grown on land  that is extraordinarily cheap.

goldenseal ginseng

Ginseng growing in our back yard.  I know about growing ginseng through experience and explain why and how in the report.

There are are specific places that reduce your living expenses, easily increase your income, make you smarter, healthier and provide tax benefits as well. 

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes these places special and seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar spots of opportunity.

Here are some of the experiences this report shares:

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not).

The report is very specific because it is about what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning globally.

  • Learn about the magic of the north facing slope.   This is where Merri and I live almost half of our time.  North facing mountain land is some of the least expensive in the world but has hidden values that the report reveals.  There is a lot of this land and a lot of hidden value that you can tap.   When we bought our Blue Ridge farm (252 acres) I mentioned this to my Swiss banking friend.  “That’s bigger than the entire village where I live!” was his response.  Smalltown USA offers a last chance at having a lot of space.  By living in two Smalltown places there are enormous tax advantages as well.  One step in the system saves Merri and me over $28,345 in taxes a year.

The report shows how to buy cheap north facing slopes and create an income producing tiny home for $29,000 or less.

If you lack the $29,000 to invest, a start up using tents is even less.  These are tipis we put up at our farm before we built our first tiny home.  Learn how they can create tens of thousands of dollars in income for you.

Fwd: gary-scott-tipis

  • See ways that small businesses like Tipi rentals can create BIG tax savings as well as extra income.  For more than 30 years Merri and I have enjoyed a strong six figure income, some years more, in the millions.  Yet there have been very few years when we had to pay federal income tax.  The report lays out a three structure program and how it is used when you are in school (up to age 30), then from 25 to 50, 50 to 70  and beyond 70.   Learn why Chapter C corporations and pensions can be better than the normally recommended Chapter S.  See how new mileage log rules gives you a possible opportunity to increase your tax deductions using IRS Form 4562.  Using a two-vehicle strategy you can gain $12,976 in new deductions even if you do not have to drive one mile further or spend one additional penny on your car.
  • See how a greenhouse can help you eat better and be healthier, plus provide income and a tax deduction and be funded by a government grant.

gary-scott-farming

Our North Carolina greenhouse.

gary scott greenhouse

Our Florida greenhouse.

  • There are similar benefits from having a second home office defined in IRS publication 463 and IRS publication 587, even if your desk is a dining room table.  The report also shows how your dining room table can become an actual income producer as its creates a huge tax deduction at the same time, not to mention a great place to eat, work and lay out plans for a brighter, safer more lucrative and enjoyable future.
  • Living in this environment is also healthier, economically as well as physically.  You’ll see in the report how researchers at Harvard found an amazing correlation between living in conditions found on north facing slopes, longevity and mental health.  The researchers were quite surprised by this strong correlation that also extended into mental health.  In addition to feeling better, reducing stress and having more Joie de Vivre the places outlined in “Live Anywhere-Earn Everywhere” can help you avoid hospitals, high cost disease management (aka health care) and BIG pharma while providing an investment opportunity in three plants that have some of the fastest growing demand in natural health care.  These three plants are just one of seven business opportunities that can create multiple streams of income.
  • How changes in cell phone and internet technology eliminated the need to be in one place.   An old law that creates new opportunity for small business in small towns is available to everyone.
  • Use the specific search and purchase guide.  Construction plans are included that show how to generate first tier income that leads to five, second tier avenues of earnings.
  • How to pay off old debt and avoid new debt by avoiding spurts and embracing value. 
  • Learn seven skills that will always have value.  See how to turn First Aid, medicinal plants, hospitality, food, trees, alternate energy and writing to sell into everlasting, low stress wealth.

merrily farms

This pond at our farm is a pleasure but also helps create a safe, healthy food supply and creates a tax deduction as well.

My Guarantee

This may be the most important report I have written in 50 years.  The information is certainly the most urgent.  Do not delay.  The risks are upon us right now and you’ll understand how the final steps of the alliance are taking place as you read the current news.

To take any risk out of gaining this urgent information with my full satisfaction or money back guarantee.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.  I guarantee you can ask for a full refund any time within 60 days and I’ll refund your payment in full, no questions asked.

You can keep the reports as my thanks for ordering it.

Buy Live Anywhere, Earn Everywhere Report  $39.99

Gary

 

Gary Scott Questions & Answers


Here are the Gary Scott Saturday Questions and Answers.

gary scott panel

Gary Scott speaking at European seminar on international investing.

Here are the Questions for today:

1: Question about the falling US dollar.

#2: Comments on beating the TSA Xray or pat down.

#3: Questions about the euro.

#4: Comments about government workers.

#5: Question on Ecuador’s offer of residence to the head of Wikileaks.

ecuador-roses

Don’t forget to order Ecuador Christmas Roses

#1: Question about the falling US dollar. Gary you keep making the statement [as the dollar falls] I keep reading every day about the dollar going up. Just wondering and ‘rwhy not be a little more positive about the U.S. Dollar and truthful, there are some pretty sound minds that believe it may rebound and if you’re that negative about it why all the assets in the U.S.?

My reply:

The dollar going up? These charts from Yahoo show…
dollar chart

that the US dollar has fallen from .85 to .75 euro over the past four years.

It has fallen even more versus the Japanese yen.

dollar chart

The dollar has even collapsed against emerging currencies like the Brazilian real.

dollar chart

Since I began writing about global investing 43 years ago, there have always been some pretty good minds who have argued that the dollar will rise. There have been short term trends (such as 1980 to 1985) but here is the long term reality shown in a chart from Grandfather.com. The dollar has been going… down… down…. down.

multi-currency-debt

In the past dozen years I have posted over 3,000 articles at my website at least a tenth of them about the falling US dollar.

Yet I just finished a report “Investing in Risk”.  Risk on what is good about investing the USA and why Merri and I love the USA.   However I do not confuse my love for the USA and Ecuador with my investments in currencies.  The US dollar is the currency of the USA and Ecuador but not my choice for investing.

My overall investment portfolio is short the US $…the only US $ investments that I have are in US and Ecuador real estate which I view as a separate currency that will rise as the US dollar falls.

If you would like these answers please start reading as you might get a better understanding of why we should expect the US dollar to fall but why investments in the US (especially made with borrowed dollars) offer great potential.

A shortcut to all the searching in my site is to order my report “Borrow Low-Deposit High” . Click here to learn more about the report.

Currently we also include the “Investing in Risk” report (a $49 value) free.

Many investors who love America have been fooled by the “Concept Conversion Trick”. I have warned against this since the 1970s. See why at the “Concept Conversion Trick” page of my International Investing basics.

#2: Comments on beating the TSA Xray or pat down.  This comment to last week’s Q & A about TSA came from a reader in Arizona. Hi! I live in Arizona. When I’ve flown to Ecuador, I’ve gone through Los Angeles or Houston. Tijuana has lots of flights to Costa Rica, which is a hub for Central and South America, as Panama is. I can get to San Diego in the same time I can get to L.A. by car. I won’t be going to Ecuador for a while again, but if the situation doesn’t change, I’m thinking about driving to San Diego, crossing the border on foot, and flying from Tijuana. I would go through U.S. Customs at the Tijuana border on foot on the way back. And I wouldn’t have to leave L.A. in the middle of the night. I see an international travel niche for Tijuana!

My comments: One can also travel by boat to the Bahamas or drive to Canada (regretfully Canada has no direct flights to Ecuador) and get a direct flight to Mexico, Costa Rica, Columbia, Panama.  Soon I expect we’ll also be able to boat to Cuba and once this happens we might see an increase in Havana-Quito flights!  But watch out. Many years ago, we lost a number of our Ecuadorian friends when a Russian built aircraft leaving Quito and bound for Havana crashed on takeoff in Quito, but hopefully a better airline with better planes will be available. Perhaps Quantas will fly some of its Airbus A380s from there.

Another Reader wrote this: For TSA-free travel, a “travel co-op” could purchase ( or lease ) passenger jets and fly out of FBO terminals security-check-free. People who fly in private jets are subject only to US Customs inspections & only on entry to the USA. Private jet passengers are never subjected to security searches. No bureaucrat would be that stupid. Just a thought.

My comments: I love and looked into the ideas of using multiple jet ownership, private jet service offering jet cards or jet taxis.

Flyers can tailor their itinerary and choose nearby airports and enjoy flying from FBOS when they choose to fly not based on the airlines schedule. Merri and I have made a couple of flights like this.  What a way to go!

This was a highly touted idea a few years ago when the VLJ (very light jet) was introduced. These smaller jets ring flight costs down… down…. down.

There were two big innovators with a lot of hype.  Eclipse Aviation claimed to have 2,500 Eclipse 500 aircraft on order and Adam Aircraft said they had an order backlog of 282 of its Adam A700 VLJ.

Airlines such as Florida-based air taxi company, DayJet, were forming based around using the VLJs and touting a new way to fly.

Regretably all three companies went bust.

Several airlines now produce VLJs such as Cessna’s  Mustang and Embraer’s Phenom 100 calling them very light personal jets or introductory class jets.  The jets carry four passengers and have a maximum range of about three hours.

Jet taxi services offer improved efficiency.  Blink Airlines for example which flies from London claims you arrive 15 minutes before you take off by avoiding check-in, inefficient security procedures, and delays reclaiming baggage.  They also offer multiple city visits in a day. Their ads says “Start in London, fly to Paris, travel on to Stuttgart and drop into Antwerp on the way home – such journeys are usually impossible if you travel with commercial airlines. With Blink, the possibilities are endless.”

Plus Blink claims to be competitive with business class travel when four people fly in their VLJs.

However they are still really expensive… about $4,000 an hour for the jet cards and private jet travel and the VLJs do not work for most overseas travel.  This is a really nice  option but limited and pretty pricey and I suspect most readers feel the same as well.

#3: Questions about the euro. Gary, hope you are well, enjoying the great daily updates as usual. As a resident of Ireland and in this crisis period, how do you see the euro performing? The greatest Euro sceptics are saying the euro would not last 20 years. Should Portugal, Spain follow suit and request help, is the euro doomed? Is it time to move your money and if so where? $ and £ look just as risky.

My reply: This is a million (trillion actually) dollar question.  The idea of the euro is rooted in Serajevo when on 28 June 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, heir apparent to the Austro-Hungarian throne, and his wife, Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg, were shot dead by Gavrilo Princip, one of a group of six Bosnian Serb assassins who were intent on breaking off Austria-Hungary’s south-Slav provinces so they could be combined into a Greater Serbia or a Yugoslavia.

That event was the spark that caused European tensions to explode into WWI.

You can enjoy a great read and understand the tensions that led to WWI and how WWI led to WWII  better reading Ken Follett’s new book Fall of Giants.

After those wars… the world was terrified that WWIII could follow, so the idea of uniting Europe began.  The euro and EU traces its origins from the original effort of some unification with the European Coal and Steel Community formed between six countries in 1951 and the Treaty of Rome formed in 1957 by the same states.

When I first started investing in and writing about multi currency investing… the formula was simple. Invest in the currencies where the governments were employing economic sanity… such as Germany and Japan.  Bet against the US dollar because the US government continued to spend more than it earned.

Then other politicians learned bad habits from the US. Germany went into debt buying East Germany and partnered up with other insane spenders gave up the DMark and joined the euro. Japan became on the the biggest spenders of all.  Yet these governments have not been as bad as Spain, Italy, Ireland and Greece.

Understanding global currency markets is so complex that unless it is one’s daily business the only way to figure out what is what is to employ the most simple, basic equations to these most complex questions.

So here is a simple view that I take.

First, see the tension. If a government has too much debt… it creates money by printing… which is inflationary. Inflation in a currency normally causes the currency to fall versus currencies in countries without so much debt. This makes goods from outside the debt ridden country more expensive.

The euro however allows overspending highly indebted nations in Europe called the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain – plus we need now to add Ireland) to have a currency (the euro) that is stronger than deserved.

The counterpoint is WWI and WWII. Plus now the difficulty of undoing the euro would be huge (though I do not think it to be as hard as many believe).

One simple measure to watch is budget balance as a percent of GDP.  The US is currently -9%,  Japan -7.6% and the euro area -6.4%.

This means long term, there is a pressure for the yen to fall versus the euro and the US dollar to fall versus both currencies.

However then look at the budget balance of  the nations who use the euro. Germany is -3.7%, France -7%, Belgium, -5.7%, Austria, -5.1%, Netherlands -5.7%, Italy, -5%, Greece, -9.1%, Spain -9.7%.  It is predicted that Ireland budget deficit could rise to -24%.

So the tension is internal to the euro and overall… from this comparison the euro is in better shape than the USA and Japan.

Ireland will announce its budget December 7, 2010 and I expect the euro to survive. However during the time it takes for the EU to sort out this mess, I also expect the euro to be volatile. So short term the euro will be bouncy… long term could be stronger than the dollar and yen.

I expect all three currencies to fall versus emerging currencies and personally have a highly diversified portfolio of currencies with an over weight in emerging market currencies.

The WisdomTree Emerging Market Debt Fund is one way to get managed diversification in these currencies.

There are many forces that could cause terror in the market including a potential Korean war, China & Russia abandoning the US dollar, Ireland’s budget falling apart, Spain needing a bailout, inflation hitting the US. Unemployment rising in the US and Western Europe, and who knows what impact the leaks at Wikileaks will create.

Global markets have been weakening throughout November.

wisdomtree chart

The symbol for the Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund is ELD.  This is an actively managed ETF.  See more on this ETF in an upcoming message.  The six month chart above from Bloomberg.com shows how this fund reflects volatility in currency markst but despite its fall (the fund quadrupled in price in a short time then corrected) its price has almost doubled in six months.

#4: Comments on government workers. Gary I work for the “gov’ment,” and I do not make the kind of wages you speak of where we make more than the private sector.  On the contrary!  I live and work in Alaska, for the State of Alaska, and I can PROMISE you that State workers in Alaska do NOT make more than the private sector, overall.  I made the trade-off for security,  because my background IS from the private sector.  I worked for Airline after Airline that went belly up, all because the government decided to remove their control and hand us the airline demise of “DEREGULATION.”  With that came the failed airline industry….one after another and people losing their jobs…they should have stayed regulated, the gov’t bailed on us….with their control there would have been more stability…  trickle down Reagan-nomics has proved to be a failed policy, where only the RICH GET RICHER and the poor get poorer….as we have proof of this after 8 years of GWBUSH and the evil Cheney…That party clearly caused the great recession….in my humble opinion, they and their stupid wars….. I would venture to say that big oil controls the gov’t not the other way around… …

So when you write your articles, please make it clear that not ALL GOV’T workers make more than the private sector…because there are people out there who will believe anything they read…. And not catch that you even said federal…. you made it sound like ALL gov’t workers make more money….which is so untrue..

We State workers lost all of our sick leave a long time ago, plus, free medical is no longer given out to retirees and neither is a defined retirement….Alaska only gives out what  you save after five years commitment along with their match up to a small percentage….plus, because state workers do not pay in to social security but in to a different account, we risk losing it as we did in the downturn….so any money we paid in to social security from all the years before we went to work for the state, guess what, we are penalized and do not get to collect on…. Also, the State of Alaska is second from the bottom in the USA for paying unemployment benefits….you pay in to it, you collect a pittance if out of work..(compared to other States – we compare to Alabama! )

I think you are a very unique individual and I so appreciate your writing, for the most part.   You cannot please all of the people all of the time, but you do a pretty good job of it.

Thank you

My reply: Oops. Just after I wrote this article on how much Federal government workers were paid I read this in the New York Times: President Obama to Announce a Pay Freeze for Most Federal Workers  – President Obama plans to announce a pay freeze for most federal workers later Monday morning, according to an administration official, the latest White House move intended to demonstrate concern over deficit spending.

The president’s announcement will effectively wipe out plans for a 1.4 percent across-the-board raise for most of the 2.1 million federal government employees in 2011. The president has frozen the salaries of his own top White House staff members since taking office 22 months ago.

Yikes, I hope my article did not cause this. Seriously… this reader has a point I am all toowell aware of.  State, city and county government employees do not have government like deals.

I know this because my dad grew up in the depression and was fanatical about job security.  He therefore worked his entire life after WWII for the City of Portland, making less than private sector.  That worked for him and when the zoo was turned over the the Zoological society, the city still had a job for him as a parks foreman.  He never made a lot of money… but back in those days the insurance… the sick days… the vacation and the steadiness were all good.   Today it is different.  Dad is gone and my mom is beginning to suffer as the City loses its ability to fill obligations and commitments to its workers.  Lucky she has Merri, our daughter, my sister and me to make sure she remains in comfort  as she nears 90! (Good goin’ mom!).

Reader’s Question #5: Would you comment on Ecuador’s offer to the head of Wikileaks.

The reader sent me this note: November 29 Associated Press Article entitled “Ecuador offers a home for founder” By GONZALO SOLANO

QUITO, Ecuador (AP) – If WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange needs a home, Ecuador’s deputy foreign minister says this Andean nation is happy to provide one.

The 39-year-old Australian, who has incensed and embarrassed Washington with the release by his online whistle-blowing organization of hundreds of sensitive diplomatic cables, had sought residency and a work permit in Sweden.

But after the release by WikiLeaks beginning in late July of thousands of sensitive documents from the Iraq and Afghan wars, a Swedish court ordered him detained for questioning on sexual assault allegations—claims Assange denies and calls part of a smear campaign.

Assange, who keeps his whereabouts secret and moves around a lot, could also face legal complications at home. Australia’s attorney general said Monday that it was studying whether he’d broken any laws there.

In contrast to the potential hostility from U.S. allies, leftist-run Ecuador provided Assange with an invitation Monday.

Deputy Foreign Minister Kintto Lucas said in audio posted online by the Ecuador Inmediato news site that “We are open to giving him residence in Ecuador, without any kind of trouble and without any kind of conditions.”

“We think it would be important not only to converse with him but to listen to him,” Lucas added, saying Ecuador wanted to invite Assange to “freely expound” and see what it’s like in “friendly countries”.

He praised people like Assange “Who are constantly investigating and trying to get light out of the dark corners of (state) information”.

Lucas said Ecuador’s government was “very concerned” by revelations that U.S. diplomats have been involved in spying in the first of the more than 250,000 U.S. diplomatic cables and directives that WikiLeaks has begun to release.

WikLeaks says it has 1,621 cables that originated in the U.S. Embassy in Quito.

Their contents have not yet been disclosed.

Ecuador expelled two U.S. diplomats in early 2009, accusing one of directing CIA operations in Ecuador and another of interferring in police affairs.

The government continues close counternarcotics cooperation with the United States, but a year ago President Rafael Correa, a U.S.-educated economist, refused to renew the lease on what had been Washington’s only base for counternarcotics flights in South America, the Manta airfield.

He said that if Washington would grant Ecuador an air base in Florida, he’d be happy to host U.S. flight operations.

My reply: I checked on this and learned that Deputy Foreign Minister Kintto Lucas is considered a loose cannon… who is out of favor in the government and may have said this to try and grab attention.  I am told that President Correa has a good realtionship with the US Ambassador and also Hilary Clinton so this sounds more like political theatrics than anything substantial.

As to Wikileaks… I have conflicting feelings but do believe this idea will change politics as we know them.  Governments have encouraged whistle blowers in private industry so why as voters should we not be entited to them as well?  Others who wish to harm us can be secretive but perhaps this will help those of us who believe in open democracy to find a way to defend ourselves and without trampling rights under the guise of “national security”.  I hope so.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary