Tag Archive | "Warren Buffet;"

It’s About Time


Making the highest profits in the stock market is about time, not timing.

Time is the friend of value investors.

Warren Buffet once said “if you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about holding it for ten minutes”.

This statement exemplifies the fact that market timing should be about how long you hold an investment, not whether the market is about to rise or fall.

Last week I sent our Purposeful Investing Course subscribers the 2019 annual Keppler Asset Allocation report that shows the results of stock investing over the last 93 years.

That report graphically illustrates how important time and value are when buying stocks.  All investing should be about finding value and often it takes time for true value to works its way into the market.

Take for example the chart of page six of the Asset Allocation Report.

keppler

This Keppler Annual Asset Allocation chart (above) shows that over the last 93 years, on average, the highest return an investor holding stocks made in a year was 162%.  The chances of that return however carried a considerable risk.

The highest loss could be 67.5%.

As time progresses, the average return drops.  After five years the best profit obtained was 36.1%, but the worst loss had also dropped to -17.4%

The average return however is where the relationship of value and time in stocks gets interesting.  The greatest profits and biggest losses are rare high and low hot spots over a 93 year span.

The average return is more telling.

keppler

On average, over the past 93 years, if you held stock for a year the profit was 12.3%.  If you held stocks for five years, the return drops a little to 11.4%.  Every year after the average rises, just a little, but, the probability of loss dramatically drops!

The chart on page 9 of the Asset Allocation Report shows that over the past 93 years, the probability of loss was 25% if you held a stock for one year.  After five years that probability dropped to 13% and after 10 years it was only 6%.

In the past 93 years, here was no probability of loss if stocks were held for 15 years.

keppler

The Keppler chart on page 10 confirms the importance of giving stocks time to work their value.  The probability of maximum profit in one year was 67%.  After ten years it rose to 80%.

keppler

There is a ton of evidence showing that market timing doesn’t yield the best results.

Keppler’s Asset Allocation shows that fining value and giving it time to reveal itself is what yields the best investment returns.

Here is another Warren Buffet quotes that shows how to maximize profits with time.

“Our stay-put behavior reflects our view that the stock market serves as a relocation center at which money is moved from the active to the patient.  My favorite time frame is forever.”

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only twice.

motif.com

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 118 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pi updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Keppler analysis and online access to all that analysis of the last three years.  Each update examines the current activity in  Pi, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 118 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more covering thousands of shares.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is one of two reason why my Pifolio lagged behind the S&P 500 from May 2018.

The US dollar has become overly strong.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The strong dollar gives non US shares extra profit potential.

The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away.  Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

The Time for Value is Near

Overseas, value investing is really a bargain following a dismal year in 2018.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/30789695468/in/dateposted-public/

It’s no secret that value-based equities in the United States and overseas have lagged their growth cousins since 2009.  It’s unusual for value to lag growth this long (see above chart).

Why has value so badly trailed growth in this cycle?  Investors have embraced growth because of accelerated earnings and growing revenues in sectors of the market that continue to lead the charge in this bull market: technology.

Recent declines in tech shares suggests that we’ll soon see a return to value.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrated my 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $366.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $99, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am including FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $366.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

On other bit in the bargain is that after the first year, you will continue to receive the market analysis but for only $39 a year.   You can cancel at any time, but for just over $3 a month you’ll receive all my updates on global investing.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 118 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pi updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

Fools Rush Into Stocks Unknown


It’s foolish to predict the future.  But we can’t help but try.

And being foolish isn’t always bad.

Few great ideas are created by consensus, but many ideas that seem foolish have actually been genius that changed the entire course of mankind.

How can we tell which is which, if we do not try and are willing, from time to time wear a foolish face?

Perhaps Aristotle got it right when he said, “No great mind has ever existed without a touch of madness.”

We all have great minds in some way.  We all have some madness.

The trick, in applying our minds and madness to investing, is not to test how great our minds are, but to know the limitations of our madness.

marketwatch.com

Chart from Marketwatch.com article “How low will the S&P 500 go? Buffett and Shiller know” (1).

Many great minds believe in long term stock predictions.

A recent Wall Street Journal article “Impeachment and your investments” (2) contains five words of wisdom.

Guess what those words of wisdom are?

The article said: The $64 trillion question is what happens to the stock market if President Trump is impeached.

I’ve long contended that only fools predict stock markets, so here I go.

A week before Election Day 2016, analysts at Barclays forecast the market would drop by 11% to 13% if Mr. Trump was elected. When it became clear he had won, CNN anchors noted—almost with glee—that Dow 30 futures were down more than 900 points. They dropped 5% overnight, the maximum selloff allowed on the exchange. But I hope you didn’t sell: The Dow Jones Industrial Average regained 3% the next day and has risen almost 40% since.

When Andrew Johnson was impeached in 1868, markets were cruising in the wake of the Civil War, with banks and railroads making up the majority of the stocks. Lehman Brothers strategists calculated that the market—call it the Dow Jones Pre-Industrial Average—rose 10% in the three months before the impeachment, paused, then rose another 6% over two months after acquittal.

From the start of the televised Watergate hearings in May 1973, the market began a 16-month decline of more than 20%. After Nixon released the White House tapes and then quit on Aug. 8, 1974, the market popped up 5% in a few days. I hope you did sell then, because that’s when the real bloodbath started. The Dow dropped 27% through early October and bottomed out at 577 in December. Messy oil markets, inflation, a recession and Gerald Ford didn’t help.

Bill Clinton’s impeachment made similar shock waves. During the run-up to the release of the Starr report, from July through September 1998, the market sold off almost 20%. A friend who ran a big investment fund told me, “I don’t care what Clinton does with his sex life until it affects my portfolio.” Financial chaos after Russia’s debt default made matters worse. After Mr. Clinton was acquitted in February 1999, the dot-com debauchery began.

So if a Trump impeachment takes place, here’s what I think will happen: First, stock futures will soar, maybe by as much as 5% on Day 1. Bells will peal across the land, and I’d expect massive flash mobs dancing in circles singing “Ding, dong, the wicked witch is dead!” Or something like that.

Then reality will set in. To understand markets, you need to know that every morning, portfolio managers at investment funds meet to discuss short- and long-term trends. During market-shaping events these meetings feel like war rooms as investors think through best- and worst-case scenarios and assign probabilities to each, planning how to position their capital.

The likeliest outcome if Mr. Trump is impeached—unless he shot someone on Fifth Avenue—is that the Senate would acquit. And the bull market would survive.

The five words are “only fools predict stock markets”.

Two more words should have been added… “short term”.  The correct seven words that separate foolishness from wisdom should be “only fools predict stock markets short term“.

The Marketwatch.com article “How low will the S&P 500 go?” says: Buffett and Shiller know suggests that long term predictions are pretty accurate and each of the experts predictions for the US stock market from now to 2028 are pretty dim.

The chart (above from that article shows that only Schiller predicts growth.  Buffet and others expect a lower S&P 500, ten years from now.

The article says Every trader’s secret wish is to be psychic. If we could only know in advance whether the market was going to go up or down.

Well, good luck trying to predict next year’s return—or even just tomorrow’s. But surprisingly, there are several recognized methods for projecting the S&P 500’s SPX, -0.09% return in the next 7 to 15 years, and they’re pretty good.

The article then goes on to describe the long term predicting systems of Warren Buffet and Robert Schiller.

Personally for 25 years, I have used Keppler Asset Management’s predictions.  As you can see below since 1994 its been pretty good and Keppler projects that global share prices will rise in the years ahead, while Buffet and other experts predict that US share prices will fall.

keppler

Will Keppler Asset Management’s predicted stock global growth through 2022 come true?

For the past ten years US stock indices have outperformed those of overseas stock measurements.

Perhaps we are about to see this shift from US to global equity dominance.  If so think about one more bit of advice from Warren Buffet.  “What the wise do in the beginning, fools do in the end.”

Which markets, if any, will rise over the next decade is unknown, but what we do know is that we can invest in a World share index at about a third the price to book (2.15 vs. 3.01) of the US index.   Even better if we invest in the ten best value markets, we are paying nearly 2/3rds (1.30 vs. 3.01) less that the US.

keppler

Whether investing in an equally weighted portfolio of ETF that invest in the top value stock markets is foolish or fabulous is unknown, but it’s statistically one of the easiest, lowest cost, safest ways  to invest long term.

See how below.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only twice.

motif.com

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 118 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pi updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Keppler analysis and online access to all that analysis of the last three years.  Each update examines the current activity in  Pi, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 118 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more covering thousands of shares.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is one of two reason why my Pifolio lagged behind the S&P 500 from May 2018.

The US dollar has become overly strong.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The strong dollar gives non US shares extra profit potential.

The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away.  Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

The Time for Value is Near

Overseas, value investing is really a bargain following a dismal year in 2018.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/30789695468/in/dateposted-public/

It’s no secret that value-based equities in the United States and overseas have lagged their growth cousins since 2009.  It’s unusual for value to lag growth this long (see above chart).

Why has value so badly trailed growth in this cycle?  Investors have embraced growth because of accelerated earnings and growing revenues in sectors of the market that continue to lead the charge in this bull market: technology.

Recent declines in tech shares suggests that we’ll soon see a return to value.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrated my 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $366.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $99, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am including FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $366.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

On other bit in the bargain is that after the first year, you will continue to receive the market analysis but for only $39 a year.   You can cancel at any time, but for just over $3 a month you’ll receive all my updates on global investing.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 118 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pi updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

Gary

(1) www.marketwatch.com: How low will the- S&P  500 go Buffett and Shiller know 2019

(2) www.wsj.com: Impeachment and your investments

 

Don’t Ignore the Complacency Factor


Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the he clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The course examines and regularly reports on the hows and whys of seven professionally managed portfolios so we can learn how managers find and invest in good value.  The Pifolios are:

  • Keppler Good Value Developed and Emerging Market Pifolios
  • State Street Global Advantage Emerging & Developed Market Pifolios
  • Gold & Silver Dip Pifolio
  • ENR Advisory Extra Pifolio
  • Tradestops.com Trailing Stops Pifiolio

tradestops

As you can see in this image (click to enlarge) the top performing Pifolio we are tracking is the State Street Global Advantage Pifolio was up 43.15%.  Here is the breakdown of that current Pifolio.

pifolio

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

State Street is one of the largest fund managers in the world and their Global Advantage funds invest in good value shares in good value markets.

In the updates we review each portfolio, what has been purchased and sold, why, the ramifications for high risk, medium risk and low risk investors.

At the beginning of 2018 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

This portfolio has outperformed the US market (S&P 500) in 2017 as the chart below shows.

My portfolio blue.  S&P 500… green.

Screen Shot 2018-06-04 at 7.39.15 AM

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2017” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 50th anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2018” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

The Global Investing Value of Missions


Missions help define value and bring profits that go far bigger than the bucks.

Secret #1:  Have a Mission

Jeff Bezos’ belief in missions caused Amazon.com shares to rise like this.

amazon chart fnanceyahoo

(Click on photo to enlarge)

There is more to this than money though knowing it can bring you wealth.

In 1994 Jeff Bezos made a cross-country drive from New York to Seattle, creating  the Amazon business plan on the way.  He left a good paying job and started Amazon.com in his garage.

He had three simple ideas in mind.  Beat the tax man… use quirks of the internet and fulfill a mission.

Defying Gravity in Wealth

Having a mission is the most powerful of these ideas… especially in our existing era of rapid change.  What is reasonable today… may not be reasonable soon.  Take Bezos’s play on tax benefits.  Tax advantages  can evaporate on the whim of Congress.  How about change on the internet?   There is no place where change happens faster.

Right now four companies that may not have seemed reasonable just a decade or so dominate the internet… Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Google.

Amazon.com is not even 20 years old.  Bezos started Amazon in 1994 in his garage.   Then he went billions in the hole.

Today, Bezos is listed as one of the wealthiest people in the world with an estimated net worth of US 22.1 billion.  He is ranked by Harvard Business Review as the the best living CEO.

According to Forbes, Amazon’s shares have “defied gravity”,  jumping 55% and adding $6.5 billion to Bezos’ net worth.

Yet Amazon could be gone in a flash.   The four internet giants: Amazon, Facebook, Apple and Google are competing fiercely.  The chart below from a Financial Times article “Battle of the Giants is about this four way competition and shows that Amazon…on paper… is the poorest of them all.

economist article

Graph from Financial Times article on the “Battle of these Giants”  (see link below).

Amazon has the least cash and lowest profit but I am betting on Amazon because of its mission.    More likely in another decade all four internet giants could be gone… or they’ll be also rans beat out by new  disruptive technology we cannot even imagine right now.

If Bezos… and Apple and all these giants with their enormous resources are at risk to change… how can we as small investors and micro businesses invest and survive in such a rapidly changing world?

The answer is provided by Bezos.

Bezos built his fortune based around two ahas and one concept… about missions and missionaries.

Bezos’ first aha was to invest in areas of rapid growth.  He had learned about the rapid growth of Internet use.  The second aha was that rapid Internet growth coincided with a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that online retailers did not have to collect sales taxes in states where they lacked physical presence.

His third and most important belief went beyond taking advantage of short term change.  He saw that long term success in investing and business relies on more than business acumen.

The key to lasting success is a mission.

Bezos said:   I strongly believe that missionaries make better products. They care more. For a missionary, it’s not just about the business. There has to be a business, and the business has to make sense, but that’s not why you do it. You do it because you have something meaningful that motivates you.

He summed up the key to prosperity and survival in business and investing.   Care… invest in… and work at… something that is meaningful to you.

This is why I have updated my report… “Running Risk – Investing in Risky Times”.   This report defines a formula for investing that works regardless of change.  You can  learn how to spot trends that emerge from change.  See how to unveil good value and find investment and business opportunities that can help you earn and fulfill your positive mission.

Money is no longer enough!

“Running Risk” is about how to profitably embrace change and find a personal and meaningful business investing path.

The report integrates three assets:

The first asset is a simple, common sense plan to understand the global economy so you spot trends for investing and business for profit.

The second asset is the knowledge of yourself for positivity and fulfillment and how to integrate YOU with the global economy.

The third asset is diversification for flexibility, safety and endurance.

Here is what you learn from “Embracing Change  – Investing in Changing Times”.

* Currency problems create wealth:  The Multi Currrency Sandwich.

The report starts with a look at currencies and how their purchasing parity threatens all wealth.  See why some currencies are not at equal risk. Gain ways to find extra value created by a strong (but fundamentally weak) currency with a low interest rate that is tensed with a weak (but fundamentally strong) currency that pays a higher rate of return.

The report begins by reviewing our January 2013 recommendation to borrow Japanese yen at 82 yen per dollar and invest the loan in US dollars and euro.  Within three months the yen had fallen to 96 yen per dollar and this multicurrency sandwich had created 21.5% profit in three months.

* Stock, economic and productivity cycles anticipate bull and bear trends in market and the global economy.

“Embracing Change”  tracks the Dow back over 100 years to reveal a consistent pattern of bull and bear markets that each last about 17 years.  The Dow has been in a sideways bear market since 2000.  Comparing the Dow from 2000 to 2013 to the Dow from 1966 to 1982 (the previous bear cycle)  shows why we could see another sharp retraction in the Dow now despite having  reached recent all time highs.

In 1974 (eight years after the bear began) the Dow collapsed nearly 50% before the great run up that began in the 1980s.  In 2008 (eight years after the next bear market began), the Dow collapsed nearly 50%.

The stock market had stormed upwards but a comparison of the Dow Jones from 1960 to 1974  and from 2000 to March 2013 was troubling.

www.stockcharts.com

1960 to 1974 Dow Chart from www.stockcharts.com

Notice four peaks representing over bought markets during a 17 year sideways bear market that ran from 1966 to 1982.

from www.stockcharts.com

2000 to 2013 Dow chart from  www.stockcharts.com

Learn what to do if the Dow is ready for one more sideways bear crash in this down cycle.

* How to anticipate new waves of technology.

Spotting innovations is as important as the 17 year cycles.

See a review of some of the top innovations that have entered the market in the past decade.  One innovation reviewed in the report is fermionic condensate invented by Deborah S. Jin. This is a superfluid phase formed by fermionic particles at low temperatures.

Fermionic condensate is special because it is a new form of matter, the sixth known after solids, liquids, gases, plasma and a Bose-Einstein condensate.

The way the atoms act suggest there should be a way to turn this matter into a room-temperature solid that is an everyday, usable superconductor. This would allow electricity to be transmitted with no loss and no heat.

Superconductor technology is being fed into the development of magnetically levitated trains. Free of friction these vehicles glide along at high speeds using a fraction of the energy of conventional trains.

Another new technology takes living cells, loads them into a printer, and squirts out a 3D tissue that could develop into a kidney or a heart.  This is the first printer for embryonic human stem cells.

A research group at Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh, Scotland, has created a cell printer that spits out living embryonic stem cells.

The new printing method could be used to make 3D human tissues for testing new drugs, growing organs, or ultimately printing cells directly inside the body for use in regenerative medicine — repairing, replacing and regenerating damaged cells, tissues or organs.

Then the report deals with another major innovation factor which is… “How do we sort out the winning innovations from the bad?”

There are new innovations announced almost daily… some created by huge companies.   Take MSN Direct as an example.  This technology piggybacked on FM radio signals.  Microsoft said this was the next big delivery system for delivering data to portable devices and Bill Gates seemed particularly fond of watches that received the signals. Alas, cell,phones and their networks offered stronger signals, wider coverage, and more flexibility. The MSN Direct data folded years ago.

Another example is TheGlobe.com.   This was social networking before Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn.  TheGlobe started in 1995. Three years later the IPO stock was offered at $9 a share and skyrocketed to $65,  the largest first day gain of any IPO in history up to that date.  Then online advertising went bust, the stock price plummeted  and the TheGlobe.com was laid to rest in 2008.

How to Make a Small Fortune

Even spotting winning innovations does not always convert into profit.   The way to make a small fortune is to start with a large fortune and turn every $38 into $26.

That is what happened with the winning innovation… Facebook.   Though the innovation has worked well… many investors were wiped out when the stock’s $38 IPO price lost over a quarter of its value in less than a month and went on to lose over half its IPO value in three months.   All this time later, the shares are $26 per share well below the IPO launch.

facebook shares

Secret #2:  Know Thyself

* How to integrate YOU with trends and the world.

Warren Buffet showed how selecting good shares is a unique personal art that begins with what you like and know. The ups and downs of markets have almost nothing to do with your investing success at all.

Warren Buffet, one of the world’s great investors, confirmed that understanding  your mission is a key component of success when he shared tips that are the foundation of how he invests.  Here are the core points he shared:

  1. Do what you like
  2. Money isn’t everything
  3. Work only with people you like
  4. Invest only in what you understand
  5. Don’t over diversify
  6. Keep looking for new opportunities
  7. Look for businesses that are available at a good price

“Running Risk” looks at how to put invaluable information to work using a PIEC wealth system.   PIEC is an acronym for “Personal Income Earning Corridor”. This concept of financial prudence differs greatly from traditional approaches of accumulating wealth.

Traditionally people invest to create income and profit.  They invest and work to live and support their lifestyle and aim towards a future of doing something enjoyable without work.

PIEC investors reverse the priorities. Instead of investing for profit, PIEC investors learn how to enjoy investing in a profitable way.

For example, if a PIEC investor loves golf, they’ll focus and invest in some aspect of the golfing trade.

“Running Risk” shares how PIEC uses the evolutionary cycle of business, the diffusion curve and the golden rule of simplicity.

Secret #3:  Be Smarter

How do we get to the core of true success?   “Running Risk” shows one example that was the core of Apple’s success… relaxed concentration.

Relaxed concentration helps you spot better trends that are interesting to YOU.  In times of rapid change, it is important to think beyond logic.  We need Super Thinking.

Super Thinking had a lot to do with Apple and why it has more revenue, more cash and more profit than Amazon, Google and Facebook combined.

Steve Jobs used Super Thinking.

I first started began my exploration of Super Thinking after hearing a quote from Aristotle Onassis.   He said that you do not need an astrologer to be a millionaire but to be a billionaire you do.  Astrology is a way of thinking beyond logic.

Later, I was a speaker at a Cayman Island investing seminar along with John Templeton.  He explained that he did everything to stay on top of trends but then also reviewed everything with a black box…. a form of thinking beyond logic.

Even later while conducting a book signing for my novel “The 65th Octave” I gave a talk about Super Thinking because this is the core of that book.   One attendee, began crying.  She explained that she had been Warren Buffet’s personal assistant and that she was so sorry because Buffet and Charlie Munger used these principles and encouraged her to use them, but she had ignored them.

My report “Embracing Change”  shares the results of my quest to gain greater intelligence by thinking outside the box.

With his passing, it became recognized that Steve Jobs was a mystic with mental access to Super Thinking wisdom.

Jobs’ biographer, Walter Isaacson, confirmed that Jobs  had a lifelong passion following basic precepts of Eastern thought, such as the emphasis on experiential prana, wisdom or cognitive understanding that is intuitively experienced through concentration of the mind.

Jobs loved “Autobiography of a Yogi” a book that helps us understand how and why we are more than our physical bodies.

Isaacson writes that on Jobs’ last holiday… just before his transition…  that this was the only book he read.

Jobs was integrating brain waves and we show why and how in “Embracing Change – How to Invest in Changing Times”.

Rapid change makes it impossible to logically understand what is going to happen.  In this report you learn how to escape the tyranny of reason. If you have 4.5 inches of information flowing through a 4 inch learning pipe, the solution is not to add another inch of information.  The answer is to first create a six inch pipe and then an even larger pipe…a never ending expansion of abilities!  This is super thinking!

* Getting safety and comfort from diversification and the six point command posture.

Finally after we think we are doing everything correctly, we diversify to protect against what we miss.  “Embracing Change” contains case studies of where I have diversified and shows:

Where why, when and how to buy gold and precious metals.

Where in the USA you can buy overseas shares.

* How to use ETFs for multi currency safety.

* When and why collectibles make more sense now then before as a diversification.

* The report reviews  recent recommendations and our current portfolio of shares.

* The report reviews the shares of ADK Ammunition… shares where conspiracy and opportunity collided.

atk inance.yahoo.com chart

Look at these investment possibilities:

* Aegion & Hyflux investments in water

aegion share yahoo.finance chart

Our site featured Aegion on December 6, 2012 and the share immediately rose over 10% in three months.

* Jyske, Skybest & Axel Springer, two plays on a falling euro.

* Unicredit & Jyske shares in the shunned European finance.

* Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners… an ultimate inflation protector.

Brookfield renewable energy finance.yahoo.com chart

We first wrote about Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP in 2010.  The shares have risen over 70% and in January 2013 the company was named as a top 25 dividend stock, according the most recent Canada Stock Channel ”DividendRank” report. The report noted that among the coverage universe, BEP.UN shares displayed both attractive valuation metrics and strong profitability metrics. The report also cited the strong quarterly dividend history at Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP, and favorable long-term multi-year growth rates in key fundamental data points.

* Singapore Real Estate Trusts… shares that are not a gamble on gambling but rose because of gambling.

* Why investments in smalltown USA have become big.

* How to move up as the global economy trades down.

This report is not a recommendation of these shares but offers case studies on WHY they were selected at the time we wrote and or invested in them.   “Embracing Change” shares ideas on how to be fulfilled in the search for value… and your mission through investing that can make the world a better place.

“Embracing Change” also reviews… the safest places to bank, multi dimensional investments that earn in two ways or more… the profit in natural health, sustainability and agriculture.

“Running Risk:  How to Invest in Risky Times” was just brought up to date last week and renamed Embracing Change to assist you in gaining fulfillment and profit.   However to make sure that this is a satisfying process for you, as with all our products we always offer complete satisfaction of your money back.

Money Back Guarantee

Order “Embracing Change – How to Invest in Changing Times”.  Learn how to create and fulfill your mission through investing.  I’ll email this report to you immediately.

Read the report and if not satisfied, let me know within 30 days and we’ll send a full refund… no questions asked.

Order here

Gary

The Power of Passion in Wealth Building


Turn Your Passion into Profit.

See how to create a PIEC experience for wealth below.

Merri & I attribute most of the business successes we enjoy to the fact that we simply write about what we are doing.  This has worked because what we do has always been have interesting, fulfilling and fun… for us and others as well.

Merri and I feel that pursuing a passion is the key to this success.

For example, we recently had a bit of bad news in our orange groves in the form of some root rot.

We had to call in big machines like… this

business-ideas

to yank out about a third of our trees so our grove that looked like this… now…

business-ideas

looks like this.

business-ideas

That’s farming for you!  Yet we are excited because…

business-ideas

we just sprayed the 1000+ remaining trees…

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with…

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Bio Wash.  A post at this site The Ultimate Small Business Freedom recently showed how this organic bio-degradable spray can increase yield and sugar content.   We are very excited to be leading in this field because we are passionate about finding ways to grow food that is more sustainable and healthy.  The satisfaction in being able to lead the way with this far outweighs the sense of loss in the uprooted trees.

Our passion goes way beyond just the short term money.  There is a great excitement that comes from being ahead of the curve and on the leading edge.

Warren Buffet, one of the world’s great investors, confirmed this fact when he shared some tips with college students on how to invest. Here are the core points he shared:

  1. Do what you like
  2. Money isn’t everything
  3. Work only with people you like
  4. Buy businesses, not stocks
  5. Invest only in what you understand
  6. Don’t over diversify
  7. Keep looking for new opportunities
  8. Buy businesses you plan to keep for life
  9. Look for businesses that are available at a good price

PIEC Experience

This invaluable information describes perfectly the benefits of having PIEC wealth. PIEC is an acronym for “Personal Income Earning Corridor”. This concept of financial prudence differs greatly from traditional approaches of accumulating wealth.

Traditionally people get jobs to create income. They work to live and support their lifestyle while attempting to spend less than they earn. Maybe the savings will bring, some time in the future, a lifestyle of doing something enjoyable without work.

PIEC investors reverse the priorities. Instead of working for money to save and invest. They focus their prime effort on doing something they enjoy right now. Then they learn how to enjoy the effort in some profitable way. They learn to create “Avenues of Abundance” that combine lifestyle with the necessary task of accumulating wealth.

For example, if a PIEC investor loves golf; instead of working six days a week, 50 weeks a year just to golf on Sundays and during short vacations, instead he’ll create a business in some aspect of the golfing trade.

In another example, a client of mine, who loved animals became a vet. But he learned that the vet’s lifestyle was not one he enjoyed. He wanted to travel and move around, which is difficult for a professional who needs to stay at his office and build a practice. So he built a business that prepares special animal foods for race horses. Now he travels globally visiting horse breeders and makes much more money as well.

PIEC investors combine money with time, energy and desires. They generate income doing something desired. Desire and fulfillment become at least as, if not more, important as the money.

Do What You Love!

The reason PIEC investing works well is that when we love to do something, we do it better, for longer and with greater enthusiasm.

These are wealth building attributes that cannot fail. Yet PIEC investing does not mean we should suddenly abandon our jobs and try becoming golf pros, when we have never been able to break 100. Smart PIECS often require a gradual approach.

For example, as a writer and lecturer, I was never fully satisfied sitting behind a desk or standing on a podium all day long, even though I was making over a million bucks a year. I’m the physical, outdoors type and yearned for exercise and the wilds of the deep woods. “What good’s the money if this isn’t fun?” I often asked myself.

Rather than quit writing and teaching, I looked for ways to combine these professions with the outdoor life. Through research I learned that many city folk like myself yearn to be in the primitive outdoors. So I bought an isolated farm high in the Blue Ridge Mountains and an Andean plantation high in Ecuador where we have developed seminar centers with charming but simple dwellings, set in rustic surroundings, with clean water and pure air. Now I can teach in a primitive setting and after I finish the writing or talking, I run up into the woods with an axe and clear another cabin site or something physical like that. I’ve combined my writing with physical work and have blended the life I want, with my readers’ needs in a way that makes great financial sense. The cabins are projected to bring more profits than most stocks or bonds could ever return.

The process took years to shift and we are far from finished. But while I’m doing what I love, who cares? This is one of the great benefits of PIEC investing. We can slow down and enjoy the work instead of always rushing ahead, looking for something more.

Those who work nine to five can start PIEC businesses part time if they are too uneasy to quit their jobs. Others, who like myself, already have a business can slowly shift their product or service in a sensible way and let it evolve toward their PIEC.

But where do we start?

There is a seven step process we can all use whether we have our own careers, a business or even if we are retired (PIEC investing is especially good for retirees who have found the supposed good life flat or financially short).

The first step is to get a clear idea or vision of our dream. This is sometimes harder to achieve than it seems. We are so deluged with false ideals from Washington, Wall Street, Madison Avenue, etc. that we have to stop and really take stock.

There is a very practical economic reason to look inward for wealth. Warren Buffet recommends that we only invest in what we understand. What can we understand better than ourselves?

This inner search will lead us to an ideal that begins the second step which is gaining enthusiasm. How can we be anything but enthusiastic about finally fulfilling our deepest dreams? The enthusiasm leads to the third step; gaining an education.

We need to find out everything we can about our idea.  To succeed we must become real experts in the product or service we offer.

Fourth, this educational process allows us to develop an intelligent, focused business plan we can act upon and the action is the fifth step which brings us the experience. Experience gives us the sixth step, a financial loss or profit. Remember we always profit in increased knowledge which creates the seventh step, more ideas. Then the entire cycle starts all over again: Idea, Enthusiasm, Education, Action, Experience, Financial Profit and New Ideas.

This is a way to follow Warren Buffet’s advice to keep looking for new opportunities. Business is rarely static. It is an ever evolving process instead.

This seven step cycle may take days, weeks, months or years, but the moment you begin you’ll start moving into an avenue of affluence where you love your work so though money isn’t your main goal it comes more easily.

The Building of Wealth

The building of wealth becomes a fulfilling, enjoyable process of service. Great financial rewards are an extra benefit rather than ultimate goals. Worries about money become less dominant and we gain an inherent power because we want to work harder and longer. We don’t need to search (and spend) so much for fulfillment and are more likely to excel financially.

Knowing ourselves also helps begin a business with a most powerful business tool I call the Golden Rule of Simplicity. This rule says there are millions of people just like us. When we truly see ourselves we look into a mirror that reflects an entire market who feel and desire just as we do. This is a simple rule yet gives us a finely tuned market research system which shows us how to get create our product, get in touch with our market, deliver the product or service, etc.

Self-knowledge is also essential for comfort, and comfort is a vital part of everlasting wealth. When investors are not comfortable, no profit is enough. Uncomfortable investors have a never-ending thirst for more that cannot be quenched. This indefatigable desire gums up the money making process. Amounts don’t matter. Even investors with incredible assets suffer this never-ending lust. A well documented example is Bunker Hunt’s huge losses when he speculated in silver. He had hundreds of millions yet speculated it all to make even more. When is hundreds of millions not enough?

Three Layer Financial Plan

PIEC business does not mean you should put all your money in just your own business (though at times you may). Diversification is always good. PIEC diversification again departs from the financial planning norm.

PIEC portfolios come in three layers, first the business, then a layer of very safe investments over a third, much smaller layer of speculative deals.

The majority of PIEC diversification should be in stodgy, liquid investments such as utilities, CDs and bonds. These investments might pay little in the short term, but are safe and they are highly liquid at a known price. The low return on these investments is acceptable because they support your PIEC business which makes profits like few other investments can. These very safe investments act as reserves if your business hits a sticky patch and can provide ready finance if sudden business opportunities arise. They also don’t take up much time in research, accounting, watching the market, etc. so you can devote your energy doing what you love (your business) instead.

However, if you genuinely love researching and tracking the market and have the mentality, capital and experience for it, just being an investor can be a wonderful PIEC business in itself.

The third layer of diversification can be speculative because modern portfolio theory suggests that safe investments are enhanced and made safer by adding a small amount of higher risk deals. This also allows us to fulfill any casino mentality we might have left if having our own business is not enough.

PIEC investing makes it easier to create and keep wealth. It enhances our lifestyles now, because it lets us make money being who we really are. It makes life more fulfilling and fun.

Gary


ecuador-mother's-day-Roses

To learn about using wills, LLCs and IBCs in Ecuador, click here.

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

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Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

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Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

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The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

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Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Global Investing and Ecuador


My global investing and business began 41 years ago May 2, 1968 and eventually led me to Ecuador.

My background as son of a zoo keeper did not leave me prepared.

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Here is a newspaper clipping of my sister Sandra and me feeding a baby lion we kept at home… one of many lions and tigers we raised.

Let me share 41 years of multi currency investing and a couple of important facts I learned that may help you… including what’s happening with the swine flu in Ecuador.

I arrived in Hong Kong in the night, the tropical air so soft it was a velvet mist.   Thick evening scents in the fragrant harbor and mellow insects purrings in rhythm with the cacophony of the great city!  What a an exotic adventure.

Kai Tak was Hong Kong’s airport then and being American born and bred, I knew nothing about investing aboard.

That was my first airplane trip, first time out of Oregon. Portland to Vancouver, Tokyo to Hong Kong.  I melted in my heavy woolen blazer, was weary and afraid but excited too. An incredible global investing journey had begun… and continues to this day.

Here I was, 21 years old.

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Here is the first stamp in that first passport. That stamp you might say was my first international investment.

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That first stamp makes a point by the way about how to enter and initially work or invest in a country.  That first stamp was issued May 2, 1968 and allowed me to stay in Hong Kong until June 2, 1968.

I worked in Hong Kong for quite some time on tourist stamps… coming in for a month at a time.   I was developing sales teams in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines at the same time so a month was plenty of time before I exited.

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Here is one of my first sales teams… this one in Hong Kong led by John So Kwok Kee (far left – you can guess which one I am).

I built teams from the north in Japan down through Thailand.  One of the salesmen we worked with in Thailand, Brian Tracy, returned later to Canada and has had great success in the sales education field.

Starting a business, investigation or residence with a tourist visa is a pretty good idea. This is usually the easiest, most efficient, practical way to begin so you can be sure what you are doing and how you’ll develop a more permanent stay if you want one.  In many cases… such as mine… a permanent tourist system is simply the easiest and best.

I began my business in Hong Kong this way and for years I also lived and worked in England on tourist stamps before obtaining my permanent residence there.

A reader recently sent me this note about Ecuador tourist visas.

“Gary, When I was staying at the Hotel, someone mentioned that you do not
have a residential visa for Ecuador.  Is this correct?  How do you
spend as much time in the country as you do?”

Here is my rely:

“I spend less than 6 months a year in Ecuador.

“We have heard from others who come stay for 90 days, leave for just a day or two (especially just over the border in Peru or Colombia)  and come right back that there are difficulties.

“Our experience is that every time we come to Ecuador we are given a 90
day visa.  However we do not stress this system. For example we may stay 70 days and then be away for weeks or even a month or so.  Then return for 20 days or so.. then leave for another month etc.   The immigration officers look carefully at the total number of days by the end of the year and to help them, I keep a list of each day we have arrived and departed and the page number in our passport… so they can efficiently see we have not been in more than 180 days the maximum allowed on a T-3 tourist visa).

Be careful not to overstay. One reader reported that having done so he was denied entrance upon his return and were not allowed to return to Ecuador for one year.

We have a full report on Ecuador visas and an immigration attorney who helps our Ecuador Living subscribers.

I am also preparing a report for Ecuador Living subscribers to answer this question from a reader yesterday.

“Hi Gary, Wonderful timing, we had tickets to fly from Guadalajara to Quito yesterday, but were stymied by the fact that Ecuador (and Peru) are refusing passengers from Mexico.  We understand Ecuador’s borders  will be closed for a month to non-residents flying in from Mexico.

We had thought about flying back to the States and then flying to Ecuador, but an electronic scan of our passports would show we’d been in Mexico and we’re not sure what would happen.  Any insights?   Thanks!

You can obtain these reports and answers as an Ecuador Living subscriber. Learn how to subscribe to Ecuador Living here.

Back to Hong Kong.  I began there selling US mutual funds.

When arriving there 41 years ago there is no way I could have known how exciting the next decades would be, how much information, facts, figures, ideas and insights on how to invest globally would be gained. Had I known the mistakes to be made I would probably have run!

Then I moved east again to England and Europe… trying many things.

Thankfully all the trials, tortures and errors were mitigated by much fun and an earnest endeavor to live right and learn.

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Here is a newspaper clipping of me  with a business partner in my London office on Artillery Row selling square inches of Graceland… not really a very good idea.

Later I imported Rolls Royces and Bentleys from England to the US… a better idea.

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One goal at this site is to share basics of global investing and living an international life learned over these 41 years. Global investing has changed so much during this time and is changing even faster now.  I am continually forced to rearrange my thinking strategy and tactics at a faster pace.

We offered health courses at our North Carolina farm. Here I am with our son, Jake, with one tactic we taught… a morning dip in a cold creek after exercise… yes that is snow on the banks and no… this not surprisingly did not sell very well either.

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Our food as medicine courses taught by Merri in her teaching kitchen at the farm had better attendance!

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For almost 15 years now we have been conducting courses in Ecuador. Here I am this year in the meeting room at the Cotacachi museum next to Meson de las Flores on an Ecuador export tour.

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This continual evolution has helped Merri and me, our readers and our income continually grow… through good times and bad.

Yesterday April 2009 for example ended with anoter record month for our internet sales.  Our 2009 sales (April month on month) were up 48.01% over April 2008, which in turn were up 24.04% over April 2007 sales.

Our sales in the first four months of 2009 were up 81.75% over Jan through April 2008 which was up 26.20% over 2007.  Learn how to develop an internet business that can grow like this here.

The reason we have survived and progressed amidst this never ending update is that the little stuff shifts and evolves, but the fundamentals remain immutable.

Investing globally is not a panacea, but expanded horizons are. Life is a trip and we have an entire globe to enjoy the ride.

Two years ago on May 2, 2007, I wrote:

History suggests that this is a time when chances are increased for panic and sudden drops in investment markets. Investors who have proven themselves nervous short term thinkers are highly leveraged, in thin, over purchased markets that are easily sinkable boats treading the dangerous waters of May though October when tradition says the currents will most likely be treacherous and surrounded with lots of storms.

Now, that this risk has proven true, history also suggests that we have a once in a life time opportunity.

The way to cash in on this incredible opportunity is the same way I suggested avoiding the collapse two years ago. I wrote then: “One way to get good international investments is to take a long term, expansive international view.”

My first trip abroad 41 years ago was significant because 1968 was the beginning of a new era for world stock markets. When I arrived in Hong Kong the world of investing was dominated by Wall Street. That was about to end. 1968 was the year when the Hong Kong Stock Market began to explode upwards along with Tokyo’s market. What a ride!

The Heng Seng Index was then 100 and rose to 18,000. Anyone who steadily committed money to this market then made a fortune.

I can sum up my investment basic investing and advice in seven sentences.

#1: 1970s. Invest in real estate, gold, silver Japan, Germany, Switzerland and Hong Kong.

#2: 1980s. Invest in real estate, the Tigers, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore Malaysia and South Korea as well.

#3: 1990s. Invest in real estate South America (which led me to Ecuador).

#4: 2000s. Invest real estate, China, India and emerging markets including Ecuador real estate.

#5: Always have an expansive view.

#6: Use stop losses during peaks.

#7: Have an international investment view. Never overextend. Don’t trade too much, just hang on.

This philosophy has reaped millions for Merri and me. Had we been more expansive, we would have an extra $20 million or so.  However our conservative approach to business and investing also protected us during the recent melt down of 2007 and 2008.

This may be time to begin taking advantage of the recovery. Panic is subsiding but values are still high. The huge excesses of the US and other government’s will at some stage begin to seriously erode the purchasing power of currencies.

I remain highly diversified from a currency point of view.  Here is my current currency breakdown in my liquid portfolio that represents 43% of my total portfolio.

An excerpt from a recent Multicurrencyinvesting.com lesson explains why when I wrote about the currency distribution of investments:

Here is my currency distribution:

Danish kroner    24%
Euro                     24%
British Pound      8%
US Dollar            12%
Canadian Dollar 3%
Norway kroner   4%
NZ Dollar             3%
Sweden kroner    7%
Brazil real             3%
Hungary Forint   6%
Turkey Try            6%

With more than a third of my liquid position in Danish, Swedish and Norwegian kroner, my Scandinavian  position is seriously over weighted in terms of global market size.

One reason is because these are such small countries located on the sea.  This means that their histories are composed of  travel and trade.

A nation’s heritage reflects in the value of its currency strength. This fact helped me answer this question from a reader.

“Gary, Will  future strength in DKK be bad for equities denominated in that currency?”

Here is my reply.

Most of the Danish companies you would buy are global companies.

Because Denmark is such a small market any large Danish company is doing most of its business out of Denmark  so a lot of their success depends on the type of business business and where the company actually manufactures and sells its products.

Plus look at the margins built into the product.

One benefit in Scandinavia is their very highly educated population. A recent Time magazine article shows that Finland (not Scandinavian but Baltic and Finland’s currency is the euro – otherwise I would have Finmark in my portfolio as well) ranked number one for educational performance of 15 year olds in math. Denmark was number 10, Sweden number 15 and Norway number 23… all ahead of the US (number 25).

Finland was number one for reading performance of 15 years olds as well.  Sweden number seven, Norway number 10 and Denmark number 16. The US was number 15.

This means that the products produced in these nations will tend to be high value.

For example, Novo Norsk makes insulin.  I suspect that the margins are substantially high.

Ditto for novozymes that makes enztymes for environmental purification.  These are firms where there is likely to be a great deal of value added into their product.

Vestas, makes wind turbines. and may be more affected by a strong kroner if they do a lot of manufacturing in Denmark but are having and sales in the US and especially if their competitors manufacture in the US or other countries where the currency is weak.

I am updating the value of major and emerging markets now at multicurrencyinvesting.com and will be revaluing our green and Danish portfolios in upcoming lessons.  You can subscribe to our Multi Currency Portfolios Course here.

I have increased my Ecuador real estate to 22% of my total property.  The balance is in US property and I am looking to add more US property now in Florida and or Savannah.

If you have real estate in central Florida or Savannah that you would like to swap for real estate in Ecuador… let me know.

I have held a high cash position for over a year but now agree with Warren Buffet who recently wrote about business and opportunity:

Clinging to cash equivalents or long-term government bonds at present yields is almost certainly a terrible policy if continued for long. Holders of these instruments, of course, have felt increasingly comfortable – in fact, almost smug – in following this policy as financial turmoil has mounted. They regard their judgment confirmed when they hear commentators proclaim “cash is king,” even though that wonderful cash is earning close to nothing and will surely find its purchasing power eroded over time.

Now is the time to convert cash into investments that will appreciate with the loss of cash’s loss of purchasing power… stocks… commodities… real estate or your own business.

This leaves all of us with a lot to do after 41 years of a global life.

I feel healthier and more energetic then 41 years ago.   Maybe I am not wiser… but I am more experienced and seem in a better position then when I took that first trip.

Merri and I look forward to the next 41 years… and we look forward to sharing them with you!

Gary

This is the schedule of Gary our 2009 Ecuador information tours, courses and seminars.

May 16-17 Ecuador Coastal Tour

May 20-21 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

May 22-24. Ecuador Amazon Herbal Tour

June 12-14 Shamanic Mingo Tour

June 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

June 18-21 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 4-8  Ecuador Export Tour

July 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

July 10-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course

Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two.


Cotacachi Organic Animal Care


Here is a way to earn income and help animals in Cotacachi (or anywhere) with organic care.

Meet Lee…

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and Peggy…

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Lee & Peggy Carper.

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and their latest project.

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Lee and Peggy are animal lovers who look after Cotacachi animals. More on the puppy and this specific project in a moment.

First, let’s look at the Cotacachi organic animal  business and income opportunity.

Our last two messages have looked at advice from billionaires Warren Buffet and Li Ka-Shing on how to use this economic correction to create wealth.

Here is another quote from a billionaire… T. Boone Pickens who said:

We’ve got all these politicians talking about better health care and what all, but believe me, we’re not going to have the money to take care of sick people.. or anyone else as far as I’m concerned.. if we don’t fix our energy problem right now.

There are several ways to take advantage of the current economic correction… invest in stocks… real estate… commodities or  to have or start your own business.

Picken’s quote hit on several huge fundamental problems that will need many businesses to solve…  energy… health and federal spending.

This is why I am writing this series on Ecuador business ideas and have focused on the environment and using organic products which helps solve all three of the problems above.

Here is an Cotacachi Ecuador organic animal care business idea.   You can help Ecuador pets and earn income in the process.

Our Land of the Sun Foundation  (LOTS) has been helping Lee & Peggy.   They live right next to our hotel, Meson de las Flores. Here is a typical shot of their balcony.

Ecuador-pets

They help dogs.  They feed stray dogs, get medical care for them and have them spayed and neutered.

Lee and Peggy’s neighbors know about this care for the animals.  They bring pets in need to Lee & Peggy.   For example this dog had been hit by a car.  A neighbor took them to the dog.  Traces of blood were dry on the sidewalk under this weak and under nourished male basset hound. His eyes were infected which made his drooping eyes even more pitiful.

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Lee and Peggy got together with a nurse and they paid for the antibiotic she suggested he needed. She quickly mixed the two part antibiotic and administered the first dose and wrote instructions for the future.

Peggy visited Meson de Las Flores and found a translator  as she was having a difficult time explaining the accident and getting advice. After  giving the medicine they flagged a truck and the driver took them and the dog to their place.

They called the local vet, Jose, and he gave the dog a shot for pain and inflammation, bathed the area of the dried blood, and put on iodine. He checked for broken bones and for internal injury as the dog did have blood mixed in with his urine. He assured them the hound would be fine, but he  came back the next day to give him another shot and see how he was fairing.

Lee and Peggy fed the hound and nursed him back to health.

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They named him Sid and thanks to the many guests at Meson who have donated, as well as LOTS, Sid fully recovered.

Now there is a profitable, organic, commercial way to help animals in Cotacachi… or anywhere you choose.

Our webmaster’s wife, Cinda, is a Veterinarian and she is introducing a new line of organic animal washes for pets.  Our webmaster recently sent this note to vets we know.

Hi,  I’m helping my wife Cinda (a veterinarian in Oregon) with her new
project – a cool website for pet owners and vets. She is sticking her
neck out vicariously through me to offer you a great opportunity.

For pet owners, it’s a great place to get impartial information and
suggestions on pets, pet ownership, going to the vet, virtual “second
opinions” a place where people can read more and ask the questions
they wished they’d asked at the vets and were either too confused,
worried, unsure, or plain forgot to ask.

For vets, it’s a phenomenal place to go and read about cases, business
ideas for running a vet practice, share tips with colleagues and catch
up on new ideas, techniques and developments. Like CE but we don’t
call it that.

We’ll have some incredible vets, skilled animal trainers, select vet
techs, and a few select pet owners writing and contributing content.

Pretty cool huh?

And as an incredible vet, vet tech, animal trainer or pet owner here
is that great opportunity I mentioned…

We’d like to invite you to contribute content – articles, ideas,
opinions, suggestions, etc. either for pet owners or vets. We’ll
include your bio and a link back to your website or practice website
and (if you wish) your email address so people may contact you. As
frequently or infrequently as you can manage. Once a blue moon? Great.
Daily? Awesome.

The site is just starting but we’ll build it into an incredible online
community. And you’ll have been there since the start and will gain
all those referrals from day one through my own expertise – Internet
marketing.

A couple of vet friends already said “Wow! OK!” so you can feel you’re
in good company. Just say OK and I’ll send you details to get you
started.

Super and thank you so much!

David

PS: If you’ve colleagues or friends who fit the bill, we’d love to
have them on board. Have them email me please.

You can get involved on the ground floor because Dr. Cinda is introducing a biodegradable, organic, pet wash. This creates a business opportunity distributing  this organic animal care solution in Ecuador or any part of the world.

Here is our webmaster David and his wife Cinda.

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For information on the earning potential of Dr. Cinda’s organic animal wash  visit the ourfamilyvet.com site and use the “Contact Us” to reach David and Dr. Cinda for the financial details.

I can give David & Dr. Cinda a wholehearted recommendation. David has been my friend and webmaster for more than a decade.  I know Cinda even better. She has been my daughter for…  I am not allowed to say how many years!

Cinda is #2  of our five children.

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Until next message may all your income be good and come with care.

Gary

See below how to have fun as you learn how to profit.

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To help you learn how to earn income anywhere,  I am making a special offer with three days to go. (I have extended this two days due to our web site crash).

You can have the “The Tangled Webs We Weave”…our course on how to have a Web Based  Business… FREE..

A Cotacachi business is great…a quiet peaceful place without much crime, noise or pollution. You can do as Merri and I  have done… have a business that works in Cotacachi, the Blue Ridge of North Carolina or anywhere we choose in the world!

I launched this course earlier this year and am making a special offer…that gives you this course free…and more.

Now you can learn everything that I do to create income and have fun and fulfillment in a web based micro business.  Here is a  special offer.

This new course entitled “Tangled Webs We Weave – How to Have Your Own Internet Business” is available at $299.

This is a bargain. Merri and I have been traveling and doing international business for 41 years. We have had a web based business for over ten years. You can share everything we have learned.

However when you sign up for Tangled Web in March 2009, I’ll include two of my other emailed courses, How to be a Self Publisher and International Business Made EZ  FREE as well.

PLUS…

My webmaster is joining Merri and me at our two North Carolina courses this year for our first Tangled Web seminars.

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina + Tangled Web

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina + Tangled Web

Nov. 6-8  IBEZ Cotacachi + Tangled Web

If you have ordered Tangled Web, I will reduce any of these course fees by $299!

In all you receive the emailed “Tangled Web” course, International Business Made EZ” and “How to be a Self Publisher”,  FREE when you enroll in either the July, October or November seminar.

Enroll here $299

or enroll for any of the three courses above. I’ll send all three emailed courses free right away.

We provide our standard, full guarantee. Enroll.  Try the course for 30 days. If not satisfied we’ll give you an immediate, full… no fuss refund.  This offer expires at midnight April 3, 2009.

Another reason to join us is we have fun at our courses.  Here are musicians at our last Ecuador course.

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We have encouraged this young group. This was one of their first public performances.

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Seven of them… plus…

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they brought indigenous dancers.

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You can learn…

Ecuador-exports

more about the entertainment we have at our courses here.

Plus see more about Lee & Peggy’s per project!

Join us and Cotacachi’s animals in North Carolina or Cotacachi Ecuador for learning, earning and fun!

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina + Tangled Web

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina + Tangled Web

Nov. 6-8  IBEZ Cotacachi + Tangled Web

Ecuador & NC Web Business Course


Our online and Ecuador & NC Web Business Courses show how the current economic downturn creates opportunity.

Not long a Warren Buffet wrote this about business and opportunity.

“Clinging to cash equivalents or long-term government bonds at present yields is almost certainly a terrible policy if continued for long. Holders of these instruments, of course, have felt increasingly comfortable – in fact, almost smug – in following this policy as financial turmoil has mounted. They regard their judgment confirmed when they hear commentators proclaim “cash is king,” even though that wonderful cash is earning close to nothing and will surely find its purchasing power eroded over time.”

There are several ways to take advantage of the current economic correction… invest in stocks… real estate… commodities or  to have or start your own business.

I could not agree more and though I was lucky to be holding a lot of cash and short term bonds during the 2008 market correction, I am busy investing this into real estate and my own business now.

Personally I have purchased seven condos on Ecuador’s beach as well as a Cotacachi office building.  We are expanding our Cotacachi business as opportunity presents itself.   Right now we are developing a Panchakarma clinic in Cotacachi.

All this however is financed by our internet business.

This is why I am making a special offer until April 2, 2009 that allows you to get “The Tangled Webs We Weave”…our online course on how to have a Web Based  Business… FREE..

The current global economic distortion is so grave it will force many of us to continue working… or  to work more then expected or… to start working for ourselves when an existing job is eliminated.

This problem is so acute that Merri and I decided to create a new course…on how to develop your own international internet business.

I launched this course earlier this year and am making a special offer…that gives you this course free…and more.

Now you can learn everything that I do to create income and have fun and fulfillment in a web based micro business.  Here is a  special offer.

This new course entitled “Tangled Webs We Weave – How to Have Your Own Internet Business” is available at $299.

This is a bargain. Merri and I have been traveling and doing international business for 41 years. We have had a web based business for over ten years. You can share everything we have learned.

However when you sign up for Tangled Web in March 2009, I’ll include two of my other emailed courses, How to be a Self Publisher and International Business Made EZ  FREE as well.

PLUS…

My webmaster is joining Merri and me at our two North Carolina courses this year for our first Tangled Web seminars.

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina + Tangled Web

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina + Tangled Web

Nov. 6-8  IBEZ Cotacachi + Tangled Web

If you have ordered Tangled Web, I will reduce any of these course fees by $299!

In all you receive the emailed “Tangled Web” course, International Business Made EZ” and “How to be a Self Publisher”,  FREE when you enroll in either the July, October or November seminar.

Enroll here $299

or enroll for any of the three courses above. I’ll send all three emailed courses free right away.

We provide our standard, full guarantee. Enroll.  Try the course for 30 days. If not satisfied we’ll give you an immediate, full… no fuss refund.  This offer expires at midnight April 3, 2009.

Another reason to join us is we have fun at our courses.  Here are musicians at our last Ecuador course.

Ecuador-exports

We have encouraged this young group. This was one of their first public performances.

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Seven of them… plus…

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they brought indigenous dancers.

Ecuador-exports

You can learn…

Ecuador-exports

Join us in North Carolina or Cotacachi Ecuador for learning, earning and fun!

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina + Tangled Web

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina + Tangled Web

Nov. 6-8  IBEZ Cotacachi + Tangled Web

Ecuador Export Potential


Ecuador Export potential comes with imagination.

Meet Maggie Beesley.

ecuador-exports

She attended one of our import export courses and has been buying and exporting from Ecuador since.   More on Maggie in a moment.

Yesterday’s message looked at Warren Buffet’s comments on the risks of losing purchasing power by holding cash for too long.

Other billionaires are reminding us of the great opportunity that exits now as well.

Li Ka-Shing, Hong Kong’s legendary billionaire, recently reminded investors that “if you buy in a slow market, in the medium term you get good returns.”

Li is a self-made billionaire who controls some of Hong Kong’s largest companies.  Li is the man the local media call “Superman” and liken him to Warren Buffett.  He heads one of Asia’s most powerful businesses and is a generous philanthropist.

“If you have money in your pocket,” Mr. Li recently said, “consider buying into stocks.

Li however advised against borrowing to invest what remains a shaky and volatile environment.

There are several ways to take advantage of the current economic correction… invest in stocks… real estate… commodities or your own business.

This is why I have been writing a series this week on Ecuador business ideas.

When you combine what you like with imagination, you can create many business ideas.

The necklace and earrings that Maggie is wearing for example are made from orange peel.

ecuador-exports

Imagine what your imagination  could do with an idea like this.

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Another article Maggie has sniffe dout in the market are leather hair pins.

ecuador-exports

These come in many colors.

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They have…

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wonderful detail and…

ecuador-exports

could be the beginning of an entire line of goods like this… school logos… badges… and such.

What an export business like this requires is searching for the product… setting up the supplier and improving the product to match your market… with your imagination.

To help your business imagination I am making a special offer with four days to go.

Get the “The Tangled Webs We Weave”…our course on how to have a Web Based  Business… FREE..

A Cotacachi business is great…a quiet peaceful place without much crime, noise or pollution. You can do as Merri and I  have done… have a business that works in Cotacachi, the Blue Ridge of North Carolina or anywhere we choose in the world!

2008 provided many economic lessons that we can use in 2009 to create our own business in Cotacachi or wherever.

The reason we can have this freedom in business as you overcome the global economic distortion that is so grave it will force many of us to continue working… or  to work more then expected or… to start working for ourselves when an existing job is eliminated.

This problem is so acute that Merri and I decided to write a new course…on how to develop your own international internet business.

I launched this course earlier this year and am making a special offer…that gives you this course free…and more.

Now you can learn everything I do to create extra income and have fun and fulfillment in a web based micro publishing business.

The syllabus of this course will help you learn how to find something that is fun, fulfilling and profitable for you to do.

My webmaster who helped me start this site has agreed to co-write the course with me.  Merri and I will explain what and how we do in business.  The writing…the marketing…the product planning and such.   Our webmaster is outlining the technical part. How to choose a server…set up a shopping cart…create pay per click systems…send thousands of emails a day.

Here is a  special offer.

This new course entitled “Tangled Webs We Weave – How to Have Your Own Internet Business” is available at $299.

This is a bargain. Merri and I have been traveling and doing international business for 41 years. We have had a web based business for over ten years. You can share everything we have learned for just $299.

Plus we provide our standard full guarantee. Enroll.  Try the course for 30 days. If not satisfied we’ll give you an immediate, full… no fuss refund.

However when you sign up for Tangled Web in March 2009, I’ll include two of my other emailed courses, How to be a Self Publisher and International Business Made EZ  FREE as well.

PLUS…

My webmaster is joining Merri and me at our two North Carolina courses this year for our first Tangled Web seminars.

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina + Tangled Web

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina + Tangled Web

I will reduce the fee by $299!

In all you receive the emailed “Tangled Web” course, International Business Made EZ” and “How to be a Self Publisher”,  FREE when you enroll in either the July or October seminar.

Enroll here $299

or enroll for either North Carolina course. I’ll send all three emailed courses free right away.

This offer expires at midnight April 2, 2009.

Lifetime Lifestyle Opportunity


Global economic, currency and market turmoil are creating wonderful opportunities now.

Whether you are an investor, business person or just looking for a lifestyle change…what is happening now could be good for you…if you see it in the positive way…and adjust accordingly.

The Friday, December 4, 2009 USA Today headline was Employers cut 533,000 jobs in Nov., most since 1974.

This article by Barbara Hagenbaugh said:  Employers slashed jobs at the swiftest pace in 34 years in November, leading the unemployment rate to rise to 6.7% from 6.5% in October and the highest in 15 years, the government said Friday.  The report points to a rapidly deepening recession. The unemployment rate was held down as discouraged workers dropped out of the job pool.

This can lead to a lifestyle opportunity…for several reasons.

I find this downturn very exciting.  Last June I had my annual progression with my Vedic astrologer and he commented, “beginning Nov. 30, 2008  the period will be benign but will give self confidence that I will doubt.”

See how and why astrology is one of many ways I process information at Beyond Logic.

My astrologer asked for feedback on how this came to light because he had never seen this before.   What this meant was puzzling to him.

Now I can see how this position has been growing all through last year…as markets collapsed…as the portfolios we create and track crashed..as the world’s material mindset began to crumble.  I have felt a growing sense that everything is in perfect order…correct…and whatever comes we’ll  (Merri, me and you, my readers) not only do well….but will prosper greatly.

While many feel fear, I feel excitement and anticipation.  What a chance to examine new ways of living, business and investing!

Of course, part of me has questions, “Can this all be right? Will markets collapse?” etc. etc.

But in my heart there really is no fear.

I work at keeping it that way as well.  I stay away from the popular press headlines for example. I do not watch TV (we don’t have it here in NC or in Ecuador) or get caught up in the daily news.

Doing this is supported by Time magazine’s  December 11, 2008 article, “The Happiness Effect” by Alice Park  which says:

So public-health experts are beginning to wonder whether certain health-related behaviors are just as contagious as microbes.

If you’re struggling with your weight, did you in effect catch a case of fat by learning poor eating and exercise habits from a friend or family member who was similarly infected by someone else?

If you smoke, do you light up because you were behaviorally contaminated by smokers who convinced you of the coolness of the habit? Even more important, if such unhealthy behaviors are contagious, are healthy ones–like quitting smoking or exercising–equally so? And what if not only behaviors but also moods and mental states work the same way?

Can you catch a case of happy? Increasingly, the answer seems to be yes.

That’s the intriguing conclusion from a body of work by Harvard social scientist Dr. Nicholas Christakis and his political-science colleague James Fowler at the University of California at San Diego. The pair created a sensation with their announcement earlier this month of a 20-year study showing that emotions can pass among a network of people up to three degrees of separation away, so your joy may, to a larger extent than you realize, be determined by how cheerful your friends’ friends’ friends are, even if some of the people in this chain are total strangers to you.

If that’s so, it creates a whole new paradigm for the way people get sick and, more important, how to get them healthy. It may mean that an individual’s well-being is the product not just of his behaviors and emotions but more of the way they feed into a larger social network. Think of it as health Facebook-style. “We have a collective identity as a population that transcends individual identity,” says Christakis. “This superorganism has an anatomy, physiology, structure and function that we are trying to understand.”

This is what I do…just shut the negatives off.  If a happy friend of a friend’s friend can help you be happy…so too can fear in a distant acquaintance help you be afraid. I focus instead on the positive side of the changes in man’s mindset that this downturn can bring..about having stuff…using natural resources…being more with friends and family…leading a simpler life.  These are changes humanity must make. Economics are usually the fastest guide.

How can we complain, if one of our greatest tasks in life is to stop using so much plastic and the economic slowdown stops us from buying as much junk?  How can we complain, when one of our greatest tasks is to reduce our carbon output when the economic slowdown stops us from driving so much?  How can we complain when when one of our greatest tasks in life is to rid ourselves on the dependence on fossil fuels when the economic slowdown enhances innovations for alternate energy?

We’ll see how this unfolds…but I have always seen myself as an investor and business person on the leading edge…writing about what Merri and I are actually doing…rather than theories.  We are always starting some new venture and venture capitalists see opportunity in recession.

Ventures are fun!

An excerpt from a recent article in USA Today about venture investors by Edward Iwata, says:  Ever the glowing optimists, venture capitalists here vowed this week that a backlog of healthy young companies — with $100 million-plus in annual revenue and growing — are poised to lift the economy and stock market next year when they get acquired or go public.

“Ignore the gloomy forecasts”, says Tim Draper, founder of the Draper Fisher Jurvetson venture firm in Silicon Valley. “Many successful start-ups were born or grew quickly during downturns. That includes Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Google, eBay and Fairchild Semiconductor, which launched the technology revolution in the 1950s.

“Each recession provides opportunities for renewal and growth,” Draper said. “The short-term view may be down, but the long-term view is fantastic.”

Draper and others even predict that new products and companies in clean technology, medical devices, wireless technology and other sectors will usher in a new economic era.

Some economists forecast that the U.S. economy won’t bounce back for several quarters. But that didn’t deter several hundred leading venture capitalists and entrepreneurs from spreading economic cheer at the Always On Venture Summit Silicon Valley at the Ritz-Carlton hotel here.

The article predicted a rebound after several quarters and went on to say:

Jeff Matthews, general partner at the RAM Partners hedge fund, said the current downturn is “absolutely the worst I’ve ever seen since the mid-1970s.” The upside? Wise investors will follow the example of legendary investor Warren Buffett, who bought all of the stocks he could afford in that recession 30 years ago.
“This is a cycle, a very terrible cycle,” Matthews says. “But this, too, shall pass.”

So Merri and I invite you to join us, with other venture and value investors like Warren Buffet, on the positive side of this downturn. The lifestyle opportunity could be a once in a lifetime deal!

Gary

See a lesson in lifestyle opportunities at Ecuador Holiday Roses.

We also invite you to join us this winter in Ecuador. Our course on beyond logic is February 9 to 11, 2009. For more information see

Feb. 9-11 Beyond Logic

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ

Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one$1,349 for two

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one$1,799 for two