Tag Archive | "Wall Street"

Cotacachi Tours

We have over two dozen Cotacachi & Ecuador tours and courses scheduled in 2009. Many have asked what they are like…so let’s take a tour of the tour…then I’ll share an investing tip.

Our November International Business & Investing course began yesterday…so we’ll follow this group. This is a typical schedule…beginning with a course, then followed with an Adean real estate tour and concluding with a real estate tour on the Ecuador coast.

We try to schedule three courses together like this so delegates can choose one two or all three tours…whatever works best for them and this allows us to provide substantial discounts on the second and third tour.

Most delegates arrive in Quito the night before. Alberto, Steve and a few of our staff drive up to meet everyone and deliver them to a hotel (usually Hotel Quito or Radisson – we negotiate a discount for everyone so the hotel that offers the best deal gets the business) where they spend the night.

Next morning they all meet and have a ride around Quito before heading north to Cotacachi.

Before the main group is arrives, the staff at our Inn goes into hyerdrive bringing in fresh food. Here is our manager Franklin with makings for fresh vegetable soup.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

Consuelo and her helper follow.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

They fill up the bodega. Here is our chef Santiago checking the inventory.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

while his assistant Alberto starts the soup.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

A few early arrivals are already in the courtyard waiting and talking. Here a couple are discussing economics with Peter Laub of Jyske Bank.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

Eduardo and his assistant, prepares juice and quinoa cake for everyone to enjoy.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

This time Eduardo has created a mango alfalfa drink..delicious.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

Finally the bus arrives.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

Delegates disembark and the courtyard comes alive.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

Many friendships are made. Guests dine, sit round the fireplace and discuss what they expect…what they want…what they think we’ll learn.

Tomorrow we begin next door in the Museum’s meeting room at nine.

Cotacachi tours

Our hotel, of course, is fully booked so we place delagtes at La Mirage, several hostels as well as condos near the hotel.

Subject matter in the course begins with global economics and were to invest now. We have several speakers who join me. In this case Peer Laub of Jyske Global Asset Management (JGAM).

We look at the long term economic fundamentals at work and how investors can react now.

This week JGAM pointed out:

The main attention this week was the US presidential election. Up to the election we saw markets in Asia acting with euphoria due to positive signs of improved conditions in the credit markets as well as the prospect of Obama winning office. Europe and Wall Street continued with the positive sentiment and Tuesday became the strongest presidential election day rally in history. After the election celebrations, markets woke up to the outlook of a severe economic contraction and the euphoria turned into panic selling, with declines up to -10% over two days. Bank of England (BoE) chocked the market Thursday with an aggressive cut of 150 basis points on the key interest rate. This move sparked a mid day rally for 45 minutes until the European Central Bank (ECB) disappointed the market with only a 50 basis point reduction. The EUR/USD has been very volatile over the week ranging from 1,2520 to 1,3120 now trading at 1,2797. We anticipate other central banks to follow the US and EU with reductions over the next few weeks. “

Then we looked at how this volatility and lowering interest rates would create opportunity in bond markets…my message was “a golden bond opportunity is coming.”

Today we will be lookng at this as the course continues.

Until next message good global investing.


Join us at a course in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Jan. 16-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Jan. 22-23 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Jan. 24-27 Coastal Real Estate Tour

We’ll visit the Otavalo markets.


Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ
Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour


Courses are centered around this open air courtyard in our colonial inn El Meson de las Flores.

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
March 10-15 Ecuador Export Expedition
March 16-19 Coastal Real Estate Tour

You are also invited to tag along to the beach where we visit all types of Ecuador beach property for sale. Here is one f our previous tours enjoying a visit to Vistazul condos.


Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our entire schedule of 26 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009.

Beware the Dead Cat Bounce

Could the sudden recovery on Wall Street and elsewhere be a dead cat bounce creating that creates an environment for a long tail shock? There are a number of reasons why global equity markets may recover (shared in our multi currency course) but here is the news about two important phrases and risks you should know.

The first is the “Dead-Cat Bounce”. This is a temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or bear market, after which the market continues to fall. If you drop a dead cat from a high roof it will bounce but this does not mean it still is alive.

The recent best day for European stocks and the biggest rebound for US markets since the 1929 Great Cash must be kept in context. After the 1929 crash, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 18.8% in the next two days. The Dow’s bounce earlier this week was 19.2%.

The second phrase is “Fat Tail Shock.” This phrase is all about predictive ability.

In finance, most investment markets are affected by normal bell shaped curves ending in a thin tail. The rise, leveling and falls of most markets are predictable.

Fat tails are considered undesirable because they introduce additional risk…because markets become less dependable. For example, an investment strategy may have an expected return. In normal times the likelihood of its failure (negative return) is less than one in a million. Normal distributions that emerge in finance generally do so because the factors influencing an asset’s value or price are mathematically “well-behaved.” In ther words markets are based on fundamental value. However, traumatic “real-world” events (such as an oil shock, a large corporate bankruptcy, or an abrupt change in a political situation) are usually not mathematically well-behaved. Human emotion dramatically outweighs fundamental logic. This causes investments to become less predictable.

This is where we are now…markets crashing, dashing, rising and even exploding/imploding. As markets move more and more dramatically so too does the daily news…Headlines become bolder… pictures more horrid and announcers increasingly grim.

All this is at the expense of our nervous systems.

Merri and I use a different method of news casting!

Here is the Merrily Farms morning news. You’ll find it a little different…and hopefully more refreshing…then CNN, NBC, CBS or ABC

Please walk with me around the farm. We have no TV at Merrily Farms so we take a walk North, East, West & South to get our morning news. First, we start by looking east from my office to see the first broadcast of the day.


We’ll I’ll be darned. The sun has risen again! The sky isn’t falling after all.

Then I look south…


just because the view is pretty to see. This is not a bad thing to do…to see something of beauty first thing.

Then I amble out and open the goose pen.


This is really handy. They are the watch dogs here. The geese let me know if any real problem is coming. This means I can focus on the day without worry. Handy things…these watchdog geese.

Then we head out for a morning walk.


We break for an important announcement at this waning autumn view…


The view is very different from the same spot in the blooming spring.


Yet both have beauty…and these seasons are required. We would really be in a fix if everything just kept growing.


Somewhere along the way we head up a path where the going starts getting dark.

Sometimes the way becomes quite dark.


Yet every dark path always seems to have a light at the end. Just when we begin to think it will never brighten, a meadow opens…


with we see views that seem like they’ll never end.


Of course they do end because every meadow has a beginning and an end.

Every walk is filled with beauty.

That is the news. Every walk has it dark and bright moments…but there is beauty and necessity every step along the way. There is a reason for the open woodland…


and the dark forest.


The meadow.


Every day the news here is different…always wonderful and in some ways exactly the same.

Basically the news is really simple….saying that life is filled with wonder…


if you stop and take long enough to look for it.

You can find beauty in the quiet glens.


You can enjoy the long views.

multi-currency-long views

You can be patriotic or not.


You can like where you are or not. You can stay put or follow a meandering stream.


Whichever the news will be the same…the daily message is…keep walking…this incredible event we are undertaking is a journey and there will always be a new path that is perfect for you.


Tomorrow’s message looks at how this message of continual change has opened a new exciting opportunity for us to share with you.

Until then, thanks for sharing this little hike and the news from Merrily Farms.

Fade out…play the Merrily Farm theme song…

“Row Row Row your boat. Gently DOWN the stream.

Merrily Merrily Merrily. Life is but a Dream.


These shots show the glory of the Blue Ridge leaf change. They also hint rumors of colder days ahead…time to head south.

Won’t you join us…in the sun…for the Ecuador news?

Join Merri, me and Jyske Global Asset Management at one of our courses. We review economic conditions, Ecuador real estate, my entire portfolio and natural awakenings to health and wealth with investing and business ideas for the months ahead.

International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador

Stay on for the real estate tour Cotacachi and surrounding areas. We’ll see real estate for sale on this lake.


Plus we’ll see homes at San Miguel and Prima Vera II.


Primavera II $46,000 condos.


Nov 10-11 Cotacachi-Imbabura Real Estate tour

Then travel to the coast and enjoy this Pacific surf that in November is warm!

Ecuador real estate for sale .

Salt or fresh water

Ecuador real estate for sale

November 12-15, 2008 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour; Quito Real Estate Tour

See discounts for two or more of these courses and tours