Tag Archive | "value investng"

Investments in Leisure & Travel


Investments in pandemic fatigue make sense because the weariness caused by the 2020 lockdowns is a deeply ingrained part of human nature.

Recently we sent our Purposeful Investing (Pi) course subscribers the November 2020 ENR Advisory Extra bulletin (1).

The Advisory is produced by ENR Asset Management for its largest clients.  This bulletin is only available to these large ENR clients and PI subscribers.

ENR is one of the very few SEC registered investment advisors that can help US investors bank and hold assets with non US banks.

In this issue, ENR President Eric Rosemen reviews how “Dogs in 2020 Might be Big Winners in 2021”.

Eric wrote: As we approach the end of another year – certainly a most challenging environment marked by wild
volatility – investors need to brace for some important changes. With the U.S. election outcome still
unofficial, our view remains the broad recovery in the world economy will be maintained – regardless if a second stimulus package is agreed on and passed. The recent market volatility should begin to cool-off in the weeks ahead as investors shift their focus to post-election policy in the United States and a Covid-19 vaccine. Despite a virus resurgence this fall, investors need to plan for a post-Covid-19 macro environment and how to position growth portfolios.

This issue looked at:

  • High-yield bonds
  • Copper
  • Agriculture,
  • Emerging market stocks and bonds
  • The Chinese yuan
  • Bitcoin
  • The Boom ahead in Leisure Travel

One graph in the Advisory especially captured my attention, was a chart showing investment opportunity in leisure and travel.

enr asset management

ENR  has a list of ‘recovery’ theme candidates in the leisure-travel sphere that includes hotels/resorts, airlines, cruise lines and restaurants, but in the advisory listed listed just one company they believe offers the best long-term risk-adjusted upside once travel bans are lifted worldwide and a viable vaccine is widely distributed in the United States and overseas.  That company is MGM Resorts International

The Advisory said: When the U.S. and international economies reopen there will be a large uptick in some types of companies. If you wait to invest when vaccines are announced you’ll miss the big ‘recovery’ jump. The best time to invest is now when asset values are depressed and stock prices are down 30% to 60% in 2020.

One way to diversify is to invest  in a travel and leisure ETF.  The chart of one such ETF, the US Global JETS ETF  shows how much the fund’s share price has fallen.

JETS provides exposure to the global airline industry, including airline operators and manufacturers from all over the world, by tracking the U.S. Global Jets Index. In total, the product holds 40 securities and charges investors 60 bps in annual fees. The fund has over a billion dollars in its asset base and has a trading volume of nearly 3.7 million shares a day.

www.finance.yahoo

The USA Today article, “‘Pandemic fatigue: Pent-up demand is driving holiday flight bookings despite COVID-19 spike”  (2) reinforces this thought.

airlines

The article says: Planning to fly somewhere for Thanksgiving or Christmas?

Your flights might be fuller than you’d expect during a pandemic.

Airlines have reported encouraging holiday booking signs in the past two weeks – a welcome boost during a year of devastating financial losses – and executives appear confident ticket sales won’t dive as they did in early July amid an increase in cases of coronavirus, which causes COVID-19.

Budget carrier Allegiant Air told investors Wednesday the blows from COVID-19 spikes have gradually decreased throughout the year, a trend reported by other airlines, including giant Southwest.

“Based both on what our customers are saying and what our customers are doing, we see a clear divergence in terms of their attitudes toward the pandemic and their intentions towards leisure air travel,” said Scott DeAngelo, Allegiant’s chief marketing officer. “That is to say, customers believe the situation may once again be getting worse, but their leisure travel activity or their travel booking intent remains largely unchanged.”

Most  people will eventually choose to get on with life, pandemic or not.  If a vaccine is created, so much the better.  This means  that leisure and travel investments might make sense in 2021.

Gary

Add Safety, Profit & Get Paid Double

The next four years will be a period of high overseas stock growth.

The chart below shows the last 26 years of real-time forecasting by the global equity analyst we track to make our portfolio decisions.

The analyst is Keppler Asset Management and the index they create The KAM Equally Weighted World Index is 15.4% below the value that the analyst forecast four years ago in September 2016.

The chart shows how in the past, two and a half decades there have been four opportunities (red Xs) when the entry levels in global markets were below or around the lower valuation band.  In the previous three low points like this, there has always been the highest growth and positive returns three to five years later.

keppler

 

So it’s good to know that if you invest in global stock markets overall, now, you’ll make capital gains over the next four or five years.

More importantly you get paid more income now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not in 2020.

This year equities have been paying a higher yield than bonds.

As of November 2020, according to Ycharts.com, (1)  AA bond yields are at 1.59%.

ycharts.com

 

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.68% as of November 2020 .  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.59% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact US shares pay one of the lousiest average yields of the 46 stock markets we, via Keppler, monitor around the world.

Eight solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay more than double the average US yield.  They pay  3.57% compared to the US yield of 1.68%.

keppler

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years.

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only five times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course uses Keppler analytics to track 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Pi teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for most stock markets around the world.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of higher performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) Ycharts.com corporate bond yields

(1) ENR Asset Management

(2) www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/11/02/holiday-travel-airlines-say-despite-covid-19-spike-booking-strong/3740774001/

 

The 3rd Magic Moment of Investing


The greatest investment profits are made when you buy investments… not when you sell.

In the past 20 years, there have been three magic moments for equity investing… in 2001, in 2008 and now.

Here’s why I believe the 3rd magic moment of equity investing this millennium has arrived.

I have tracked the global equity value analysis of  Keppler Asset Management (KAM) for over 25 years.

I closely watch their quarterly analyses of an equally weighted combination of top value equity markets.

These markets offer the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The chart below shows the entire real-time forecasting history for the KAM Equally Weighted World Index, starting at the end of 1993.  These forecast have been amazingly accurate most of the time.

Each time the forecast has been incorrect on the low side, it was the best time in decades to invest in shares.

The chart below shows how the magic moment comes when Keppler’s long term forecast is off.

keppler

The time for long term investing has arrived.

Last quarter, the KAM Equally Weighted World Index declined by 22.3% to 10,191 in local currencies (LC).

This figure is 26.5% below the intrinsic value of LC13,856 that KAM implicitly forecast in March 2016.

Even worse, it is 8.1% below the lower forecast band, which we had estimated at LC11,084 four years ago.

In the past, entry levels below the lower valuation band have always yielded positive returns three to five years later.

History suggests that this time should not be different.

Keppler’s implicit three-to-five-year projection places the KAM Equally Weighted World Index at LC17,211 by March 31, 2024, up from its current level of LC10,191.

This corresponds to a compound annual total return estimate of 14.0% in local currencies—up from Keppler’s forecast of 5.2% three months ago.

Results could even be better.  The upper-band estimate of LC20,653 by March 31, 2024 implies a compound annual total return of 19.3% (up 9.2 percentage points from three months ago).

Even the the lower-band estimate of LC13,769 indicates a compound annual total return of 7.8% (up from -0.5% last quarter).

Value investing especially makes sense now. 

buffet

The MSCI World Growth Index now sells at a premium of 175% to the MSCI World Value Index based on key fundamentals, e.g. book value, cash flow, earnings and dividends.

The market will adjust to these facts probably sooner rather than later.

In addition following the strategy in our Purposeful Investing Course (PI) the top value developed markets we invest in are now undervalued by 68% compared to the MSCI World Growth Index.

The Top Value Model Portfolio now holds the nine “Buy”-rated markets Austria, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom at equal weights.

Don’t get me wrong.  I am not suggesting that I know if we’ll see a surge in equity prices tomorrow or next week or even by the end of the year.  Equity markets could fall much further as they did in 2008.  There probably will be a negative reaction to the terrific rise in equity prices in the month of April.

What I do believe is that those who begin to add equities now will see a good profit (between 7.8% and 19.3% per annum) within four years.  That’s why this is the magic moment for long term equity investors.

Gary

I would like to help you learn an easy way to invest in the best value investment during this special time of opportunity.  See how to become an International Club member, save $598.23 and obtain a 130 page report on how to invest in good value shares now.

Coronavirus and the Stock Market Round Two

Coronavirus and the stock market.  Round Two is coming.

This virus and the market faced off in the spring.  The market won.  As the chart below shows, after a huge March 2020 collapse,the DJIA is almost back to its December 2019 level.

stocks

The market’s back up, but history suggests that we’ll see volatility in the ten years ahead.

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  The .dotcom bubble burst just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

The market then went nowhere from 2000 to 2014.   Finally it started reaching new high levels.

Such decades long sideways movement after a severe correction is nothing new in the stock market.

So everything’s in order… except the pandemic.  The ravages of the coronavirus dramatically increase the unknown and this uncertainty is the greatest purveyor  of weakness that a stock market can have.

Such delays have profound implications for older generations who may need to cash in equities for income.  How do we maximize the return on your savings and investments during this extremely dangerous time?

For the past five years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain income and appreciation from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) to determine which markets offer the best value so we can be in a perfect position to take advantage of stock market corrections all over the world.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: Austria, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

You can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but during the pandemic to introduce you to this online course  I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy, diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary