Tag Archive | "value investments"

An Unusual Developed Versus Emerging Market Comparison


Currently developed markets offer better value than emerging markets.  

Normally, emerging markets sell at a considerably lower price-to-book than developed markets.  This is not the case starting in February 2020 and remaining in March.

pixabay

Keppler’s Top Value analysis names nine “Buy”-rated developed markets;  Austria, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom at equal weights.

According to Keppler’s analyses, an equally weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

According to his analyses, the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is now undervalued by 40% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index, by 52% compared to the MSCI USA Index and 65 % compared to the MSCI World Growth Index.

The Emerging Markets Equities are not quite as attractive, now undervalued by 40 % compared to the MSCI World Index and by 58% compared to the MSCI EM Growth Index.

The Top Value Model Portfolio includes twelve markets Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia,Taiwan and Turkey at equal weights.

In addition to these undervaluations, the developed markets also pay a higher average dividend (4.21%) compared to the 4.01% average dividend paid by the top value emerging markets.

The developed markets are also selling at lower price-to-book, 1.23 compared to 1.28 for emerging markets.

Our Pifolio began with a 70% developed and 30% emerging balance, but currently we are adding 75% developed markets to 25% emerging.  While all these markets offer good value, developed markets pay a better return and traditionally are less volatile than emerging markets.

As equity markets approach all time highs and the global economy struggles with concerns over immigration, demographics and resource transition, developed markets offer more stability and currently better value as well.

Gary

Coronavirus and the Stock Market Round One is Done

Coronavirus and the stock market.  Round Two is coming.

This virus and the market faced off in the spring.  The market won.  As the chart below shows, after a huge March 2020 collapse, by early June, the DJIA was back to its December 2019 level.

stock chart

The market’s back up, but history suggests that we’ll see volatility in the ten years ahead.

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  The .dotcom bubble burst just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

The market then went nowhere from 2000 to 2014.   Finally it started reaching new high levels.

Such decades long sideways movement after a severe correction is nothing new in the stock market.

So everything’s in order… except the pandemic.  The ravages of the coronavirus dramatically increase the unknown and this uncertainty is the greatest purveyor  of weakness that a stock market can have.

How do we maximize the return on your savings and investments during this extremely dangerous time?

For the past four and a half years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain income and appreciation from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course to determine which markets offer the best value so we can be in a perfect position to take advantage of stock market corrections all over the world.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

You can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but during the pandemic to introduce you to this online course  I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy, diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

 

Dollar Dip or Not?


Monitoring the US dollar index can help spot good value investments.

Rare, long term economic cycles help us see distortions and future trends such as the current over bought US dollar.

The chart below was in the September 29, 2018 New York Times article, “The Mini-Recession That Many Missed” (1).

This article explained how the US dollar rose in 2015.

nyt.com

The article explained: There was a sharp slowdown in business investment, caused by an interrelated weakening in emerging markets, a drop in the price of oil and other commodities, and a run-up in the value of the dollar.

How it happened

The mini-recession defies neatness. It’s a story of spillovers and feedback loops and unintended consequences. But here’s a summary:

In 2015, Chinese leaders were concerned that their economy was experiencing a credit bubble, and they began imposing policies to restrain growth. These worked too well and caused a steep slowdown. That in turn caused troubles in other emerging nations for whom China was a major customer.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve, finally growing confident that the United States economy was returning to health, made plans to end its era of ultra-easy monetary policy.

As the Fed moved toward tighter money, its counterparts at the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan were going in the opposite direction. The prospect of higher interest rates in the United States and lower rates in the eurozone and Japan fueled a steep rise in the value of the dollar on global currency markets.

We can see the rise in the US dollar in this chart of a US dollar Index Futures ETF.

finance.yahoo.com

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX) shows the US dollar relative to this basket of foreign currencies.

Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight
Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight

Since the greenback gained strength in 2015, the index has been hovering around 100.

The 100 mark is significant due to its rarity.  A look at a long term chart of the index shows it has only breached this barrier four times since 1967.

wiki

This suggests that its a better than normal time to use US dollars to buy shares in non dollar markets.

Long term studies suggest that the best overseas investments are in good value stock markets.

Keppler Asset Management’s last market valuation shows that the Top Value Developed Markets are selling at less than half (1.50 vs 3.29) the book value of the US market.

keppler asset management

But this could be a long term investment.  We have no way to know when forces will shift and non US markets will rise faster than US markets nor when the six index currencies will rise against the US dollar.

What we do know is that history powerfully suggests that distortions of strength do eventually adjust and when they do, the correct normally takes place quickly.

Here are the Top Value Markets and their Price to Book, PE Ratios and Average Dividend Yield.

keppler

Gary

The strong dollar also offers opportunity for a reverse multicurrency sandwich.

In 2015 we offered a report showing how to borrow the six index currencies to invest in dollars and dollar denominated investments such as silver.  This took advantage of the US dollar’s rise. Our 2018 report shows how to take advantage of the dollar’s correction. See details below.

Borrow Low – Deposit High

Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less.   If someone offers you a deal like this, I would normally say “Run as fast as you can!”

Yet in 1986. This is exactly what I wrote in a report, The Silver Dip”  that told how to borrow British pounds to buy silver.  I must admit it. I was wrong. Readers who followed the report made nearly that amount ($46,299 to be exact) in only one year!

I have been updating this report since.  The last update showed how to get 2% loans that turned $39.95 into $28,185 profit.

Now is the time to borrow low and earn high again because… an amazing investing trend is taking place.

Most investors will miss it.   You do not have to lose out.

Let’s take a look why.

I have been helping readers use a little known, easy loan investing technique for over 30 years.   Almost any investor can get the loans.

The $39.95 is for a report that explains how to borrow $10,000… no loan application required.   You’ll  get the lowest interest rates in town according a Barron’s online review.

Right now the loan interest rates are between 1.41% to 2.66%.

Here is what happened the first time I issued this report over three decades ago.

The year was 1986.  The price of silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce down to $4.85 in May 1986.  

Everyone was afraid of investing in silver.

But I had been investing and writing and speaking about global investments since 1968.   When I issued the Silver Dip in 1985 I  had nearly 20 years of experience, so knew that when fear rules a market, the chance of profits are high.

As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply of silver had fallen to 449.7 million ounces.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at that time.  Secondary recovery of silver was constricted by low prices as well.

Then a “special silver pricing position” fell into place.

I showed readers how to borrow 10,000 British pounds at cheap interest rates, to invest in silver.   A British pound at that time was worth $1.86 so the loan was sufficient to buy 3,835 ounces of silver at $4.85 per ounce.

Silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  By 1987 the 3,835 ounces of silver was worth $42,185.

The profit did not stop there!

The loan was in British pounds.  By May 1987 the pound had dropped from $1.86 per pound to only $1.40 per pound.  The 10,000 pound loan that had been worth $18,600 in 1986 only required $14,000 to pay it off in 1987.

The falling pound had created an extra $4,600 profit.

Do the math: 

Silver worth $42,185

Loan payoff  $14,000

Profit             $28,185

Cash Required  Zero

All of this profit was made on the 10,000 pound loan.  No extra cash was required on the investor’s part.

The $28,185 was pure… extra profit.

Let me add that some investors had borrowed even more.  Some less.  The report showed a loan to risk formula that investors could follow.

That was in the 1980s.  Silver’s special pricing position” does not happen often (this is why most investors miss it).

Nearly 30 years passed before the “silver’s special pricing position” fell into place again.

Conditions for the silver dip returned 30 years later in 2015.  The availability of low cost loans and silver’s price were perfect.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, most missed this important profit generating event. 

My readers did not.

I had been watching the entire 30 years for “silver’s special pricing position” to return.

I had been watching currency shifts and interest rates distortions so I knew the best currency to borrow.

From 2011 to 2015 the price of silver had once again crashed from $48.35 to below $14 an ounce.

The “special silver pricing position” reappeared.

I dusted off the “Silver Dip” and updated it to the “Silver Dip 2015”.

I prepared a “Silver Dip 2015” report and shared it immediately.  

The report paid off again.

From July 2015 to July 2016, the price of the silver ETF  iShares Silver Trust (Symbol SLV) rose from $13.92 and ounce to $18.71.  You can see the rise in the finance.yahoo.com chart below.

yahoo

A 10,000 pound loan (the pound was $1.52 per pound) purchased 1091 shares of the silver ETF SLV.   Those Shares rose to be worth $20,421 by 2016, a 34.34% additional profit.

The profit did not stop there!

The loan again was in British pounds.  From 2015 the pound dropped from $1.52 dollars per pound to only $1.39 dollars.  The 10,000 pound loan that had worth $15,200 in 2015 only required $13,900 to pay it off in 2016.

yahoo pound chart

The falling pound had created an extra $1,300 profit.

Do the math: 

Silver worth $20,421

Loan payoff  $13,900

Profit             $6,521

Cash Required  Zero

All of this profit was made on the 10,000 pound loan.  No extra cash was required.

Again this was pure… extra profit.

Some investors borrowed less… others borrowed much more so their profits were even higher.

All the extra earnings were derived from a low cost, easy to obtain loan that almost any investor can have.

I would like to help you learn how to tap into this type of profit that most investors will miss… in my newest report “The Silver Dip 2019”.

First let me answer a really important question…  that if you have not asked, you should.

Isn’t there some risk?

Yes.  There is always risk when you invest.

The first golden rule of investing outlined in the Silver Dip 2019 report is…”there is always something we do not know”.

The numbers above are what have happened.   We never know for sure what will happen.

2015 was similar to 1986.  Investors were afraid of silver.  Courage was required and this is exactly why dip investments work so well.

When most investors are afraid of a precious metal, extra good value is created!

Plus there is a way to dramatically increase the odds that your investment will be safe and that you’ll reap the type of high rewards I have described above.

The formula for increasing safety and improving the odds for profit are included in the new report, “Silver Dip 2019”.

The benefit of 50 years experience.

With so many years of experience in watching markets, metals, bonds, interest rates and currencies, I have learned many special pricing situations to watch for.

These special opportunities do not appear every day.  That’s why they are special.

Unless you have seen them come and go, it’s hard to see them coming again.

That is why I was willing to wait for years for silver to be in a special pricing position.

Our courses and reports are about finding good value and they have been helping astute readers find value investments, again and again for 50 years.

The “Silver Dip 2019” report shows a new, even bigger opportunity.  I continuously watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.   Sometimes a rare quirk, such as we saw with the pound loans and the Silver Dip offer potential for profit, with very little risk of long term loss.

Investors who speculate on platinum at the correct time can make fortunes.

The time is now.

Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

We are stalking precious metal opportunity now.

The trap is set. We are waiting…

This opportunity is explained in the report “Silver Dip 2019”.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Here is why there is no risk for you.  The report is 100% guaranteed.

I do not sell book, reports and courses.  I offer benefits.  If  the Silver Dip 2019 does not bring you the benefits you expect, just let me know within 60 days and I’ll send you a quick, no questions asked, full refund.

I can’t promise that silver’s price will rise in the next 60 days.  I can guarantee you’ll be fully satisfied with the report or… you can have your money back in full.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Gary

 

(1) www.nytimes.com: Mini recession 2016

Leverage Profits


garyheadshot

Here is how subscribers to our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) recently earned 98.68% profit in eight months.

Last November 2015, silver had dropped to a special low price.  The gold-silver spread had reached a historic high.

The iShares Silver Trust ETF ( symbol “SLV”) was priced at US$13.60 per share.

The British pound parity was US$1.54 US dollars per share.

We issued a special report (Silver Dip 2015) to Pi subscribers showing how a 30 year cycle and the risk reward ratio had tipped towards using a British pound margin account to invest in “SLV”.

Here is what happened to an investment of US$10,000 with an additional margin loan of  6,500 pounds.  The 6,500 pounds were converted to US$10,000.  The total $20,000 was invested in SLV at US$13.60.  This purchased 1,470 shares of the “SLV” ETF.

Eight months later, due in part to Brexit, “SLV” shares reached $19.22.  Those shares were worth US$28,253.

Paying off the 6,500 pound loan cost only US$8,325 because the pound has crashed to $1.29.  After the loan payoff, the balance is US$19,868.

The profit in eight months is $9,868 or 98.68% of the original $10,000 invested.

Here is the chart at www.finance.yahoo.com showing the horrendous drop in the pound as it plunged to 1.29 dollars per pound.

Screen Shot 2016-07-10 at 12.06.57 PM

The chart below shows the price of the silver ETF SLV (recommended in the Silver Dip Report) which spiked up to US$19.22.

Screen Shot 2016-07-10 at 12.06.27 PM

There has been such great profit potential in the Silver Dip I updated the report in the “Silver Dip 2016” report.

This is not the first time Pi subscribers made profits off leverage.

Earlier, subscribers received a report entitled “Multi Currency Sandwich” that showed how shorting the Japanese yen and investing the loan in dollars and euro could also bring a fast profit with minimal risk.

What a ride!  The dollar appreciated over 12% versus the yen in just three monthsThe Dow Jones Industrial average rose 9.5% in the same period.  Those who borrowed yen and invested in the Dow Jones industrial average earned both the 9.5% and 12% profit or 21.5% in three months.

Earlier, we helped readers earn up to 266.3% in one year using Swiss franc and yen margin loans.   Then we recommended getting out of all the shares and investing in Danish & Swedish bonds before the 2007 to 2009 global stock market crash.

Yet our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) is NOT about fast moving, speculative stock and currency trading.  Pi is about slow, worry free, good value investing from finding good value.  Our purpose is to invest for profit, not pride. 

This means there are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We should invest to make the world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

This good value portfolio is based entirely on good value financial information and math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed using my 50 years of investing experience and study of the mathematical market analysis of Michael Keppler and his company, Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of these BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The Pifolio is the main portfolio we study in our Purposeful investing Course.  Then we add spice with leveraged speculations that offer additional profit potential often using leverage.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently the ten good value non US developed markets and none good value emerging markets mentioned above.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio that includes each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.  Three decades past, in 1985 the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then in 1988 the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that allows you to accumulate these bargains now in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.  This powerful profit wave can eliminate that concern.  My experience of the 17 years in the 1980s and 90s combined with mathematical science can make the next 17 years so rich, you’ll always be rich.

You can order this report Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” for $29.95.  Order the report here $29.95

Or you can have the report free when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Here is a ratio that can make us rich….1.6 to 1.  Leverage in this amount has helped build one of the greatest fortunes in history.  This ratio is one of three secrets in the science of everlasting wealth.

Research published at Yale University’s website shows the actual science of using this ratio to become and remain rich.

A research paper shows how Warren Buffett used leverage to amass his $50 billion dollar fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at this Golden Ratio of 1.6 to make large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.

Buffett has amassed an amazing fortune by leveraging a good strategy for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

The study found that Buffett applies a leverage of about 1.6 to 1, boosting both his risk and excess return in that proportion.  He uses this in his borrowing, not too little, not too much.

The 50 years of experience the Pi course shares also explains when leverage provides extra potential.   For example in 1986 I issued a report called The Silver Dip that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

silver chart

Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.   As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year. The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip returned 30 years later.  The availability of low cost loans and silver were at an all time low.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.

slv share chart

The price of silver has crashed all the way from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).  (Click on chart from Google.com  (1) to enlarge.)

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers could take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  The speculation was so time sensitive with such fast profit (but also loss) potential that I only offer it for a short time.   As explained above, that report helped create a 98.68% profit in just eight months.

There is still plenty of potential in the Silver Dip 2016 but a new even bigger opportunity has arrived.  A Chinese stock and currency distortion has created a new leverage opportunity.  This potential caused me to rush out another report “Safe Speculations in Currency Profits”.

This new report shows how there is a sequence that the appreciation or decline of currencies and stock markets always follow.  After 50 years of global business and investing, I have learned to watch for aberrations in this sequence.  Sometimes a rare quirk, such as we saw with the yen loan and the Silver Dip offers potential for a quick, fast profit, but almost no risk of long term loss.

The newest such quirk is a Chinese stock and currency distortion that recently came together.  This anomaly has really captured my attention because it offers extra potential for those who act now.

Investors who jump in at the correct breaks in the sequence can make fortunes.  Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

Some Facts about Currency Opportunity

My new report “Safe Speculations in Currency Profits” shows how to cash in on a distorted cycle in the sequence of China’s stock market and currency that has interfered with the US dollar’s fall.

The economic expansion you’ll learn may be one of the most important social, economic phenomena since the original Industrial Revolution two and a half centuries ago.  Upon completion the sequence will triple the number of poor who will have been lifted from poverty.  This is such a huge change that Chinese growth is not going away because China has discovered a secret economic recipe.  This recipe will make those who invest in it rich, maybe overnight, certainly over time.  (Supporting China’s economy will help the world be a better place as well).

To order the new report “Safe Speculations in Currency Profits” that shows how to gain a special short term opportunity in China and in Britain with little long term risk, $49 click here.

Save $207.95

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi). The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $27 report “The Silver Dip 2016” and $49 report “Safe Speculations in Currency Profits” free for a total savings of $207.95.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get all issues of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2015” and “Safe Speculations in Currency Profits” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee to cancel your subscription and refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2106” and “Safe Speculations in Currency Profits” reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Save $158.95.   Subscribe to the Pi for $197.

Gary

Looking Back’s Not Good?


Looking back at our mistakes isn’t good, unless we learn.  I try to avoid going down the crooked road of regrets but when I do, I always find something interesting.

road

Coy Ham Road on the way to our farm.

Mistakes can be looked at in two ways.  Our errors can be events that caused something to be lost, or they can be seen as starting points where something was gained.  I joke about the real estate Merri and I bought and sold in London, England and Naples, Florida.  Had we kept just two of the houses, (one in London-one in Naples), we would have an extra five or six million dollars.

So did we lose, by making those deals?

When I think through the entire transaction, I see that each sale brought us something far better-other investments, adventures in new locations and a richer, fuller, more enjoyable life.

This should not come as a surprise.  Numerous scientific studies of the brain and of human behavior have found that mistakes can be as good for us as success!

One MRI study found that most chemistry in the brain is linked to gaining pleasure or avoiding punishment.  Some people expect on some level to be punished for mistakes and the brain becomes inhibited.  The brains of those who make a habit of learning from the mistakes begin to treat mistakes as rewards and performance is improved.

Another study found that mistakes improve the ability to pay attention and incorporate new information that improves learning and performance.

Researchers elsewhere discovered that memories of mistakes help us learn new tasks faster even when we make them while learning a completely different task.

There is one more reason not to have regrets or worry about mistakes. A quote from the late Muhammad Ali shows why.

“I’ve made my share of mistakes along the way, but if I have changed even one life for the better, I haven’t lived in vain”.

Gary

Regrets create the behavior gap in investing.

Protect Your Wealth From Mistakes

Here are three steps to multi currency profits.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make you smarter than the smartest man in the world.

sir issac newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market.  His comment was “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence in seeking value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why two of the three exports I use in my Purposeful investing course (Pi) and mathematicians not economists.  I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline in our Pi course.

Use math, not emotion to protect your wealth.

There are time tested mathematical systems that can help you know when to take profits that maximizes gains and minimizes loss.

These systems help you seek value but also create disciplined exit strategies because one of the toughest decisions most of us have is to know when to sell a rising or falling share.

Human nature makes it harder to let winners run, than to cut loses.

Let’s look at a real time example of how purposeful investing strategies can increase profit.  In this real example, in 2002 Merri and I invested in Jyske Bank shares.  We were visiting the bank with a group of readers.  We had been in Copenhagen for several days and took the group out to the bank’s headquarters in the small charming village of Silkeborg.  We visited the CEO (who has been a friend for many years) in his new modest offices, saw the bank’s new currency trading room and visited with the Jyske Invest Fund Managers.  What impressed us was the conservative and balanced thinking throughout the bank.  There were no staff limos or corporate jets.  The CEO’s office was small with walls of glass so staff could see him at work.  The bank worked for and talked about the long term view.

TFC Corp

Jyske Bank share price since September 2002.

We invested in Jyske shares at DKK96.50 on 2nd September 2002. We sold half in April 2006 at DKK352.50.  The share price of the remaining shares we hold have never dropped below our purchase price.  Today the share price is over DKK300 again.

Could I have done better with a mathematical system?  I asked Dr. Richard Smith, CEO of Tradestops.com,  who has a PhD in mathematics and is one of the experts we use in our system, to see how his trailing stops strategy would have increased my profit.

It turns out I could have done better.  Much better.   Here is the chart of the trailing stops that his strategy would have given me had I been using it.

magci calculator

Click on image to enlarge.

Let’s look at three scenarios to show the difference in profit between using simple buy and hold with no stops, my system of taking back the original investment and the Trailing Stops strategy.  For simplicity sake, I am not including dollar to Danish kroner fluctuations.  The forex fluctuations would make a difference if calculated in US dollars performance but we’ll analyze that element of the invest in another message.

Scenario #1: DKK100,000 becomes worth DKK350,158.  Profit is DKK241,880 in 15 years.  In this scenario we assume a DKK100,000 investment.  The investment is at DKK96.50 so 1036 shares were purchased.  The assumption in this scenario is that all the shares have been held.  The price of today’s quote (April 23, 2015) is DKK330.  The value is DKK341,880 on DKK100,000 invested.

Scenario #2: DKK100,000 becomes worth DKK357,679. Profit is DKK247,840 in 15 years.  Assume again, DKK100,000 investment.  1036 shares were purchased at DKK96.50.  In this scenario, (what I actually did), 285 shares when the price reached DKK352.50.  This returned my original investment appx. DKK100,000.  The remaining 751 shares at 330 (4/22/2015 price) are still held so are worth DKK 247,840.  This represents a total profit of  247,840.  This is a little better than keeping all the shares,  except the shares sold in 2006 created new opportunity potential for nine years so this scenario is actually much better than the numbers appear.

Scenario #3: DKK 100,000 becomes worth DKK1,156,069.  Profit is DKK1,056,069 in 15 years.  As in the other two scenarios there was a DKK100,000 investment.  1036 shares were purchased at DKK96.50.

Dr. Smith, backtracked to and see what the system would have done would with this share.

Richard sent the exact dates with buy and sell numbers:

Exit @ 325.50 on 6/13/2006.  All the shares are sold bringing in DKK337,218.

Buy @ 321.98 on 10/9/2006.  The DKK337,218 buys 1047 shares.

Exit @ 404 on 6/8/2007.   This sale grosses DKK422,988

Buy @ 118.5 on 3/20/2009.  The DKK422,988 buys 3,569 shares

Exit @ 170 on 8/10/2011. This sale grosses DKK606,730

Buy @ 173.40 on 2/1/2012.  The DKK606,730 buys 3,499 shares

Still in @ 330.4 on 4/22/2015. The share value at this time is DKK1,156,069.

Wow, what a difference if one followed and used the trailing stops.  The trailing stops and re buy signals increase the investment by 11 times versus 3.5 times in the other scenario.

The Jyske shares have a volatility quotient at this time of 15.5% so would create a sell signal at around DKK287 at this time.

These scenarios are based on approximations and do not include trading costs, management fees, etc. so the real money in the bank would not be exactly this amount.  For our analytical purposes this study suggests that trailing stops help us protect the successes we gain in spurts.

This type of math creates great discipline so you know not to sell too soon and give away profit but, also know not to hold too long and give away returns already made.

Yet using trailing stops only works when you have good shares to begin.

To easily spot good value, we use Keppler Asset Management  as our first source of data.  We follow the analysis of our friend, Michael Keppler.

Michael Keppler is an expert on stock market value and I have worked with him for nearly 30 years because the best way to create long term multi currency investment profits is to get good value in the shares you buy.

Michael continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each major stock market’s history.  From this he develops his Good Value Major Stock Market Strategy, an analysis that is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short ups and downs.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Keppler.  In my opinion, Michael is one of the best market statisticians in the world.

Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds. In January, his company, Keppler Asset Management, was, for the third consecutive year, named Best Fund Company in the Fund Specialists’ category by Capital, a leading German business magazine.  Keppler’s firm was one of only six out of 100 companies tested that received the highest five-star rating based on an independent evaluation of fund quality, management, and customer service by Feri Rating & Research and Steria Mummert Consulting.

Yet you have not heard about Keppler nor can you hire his services because he only serves mutual funds and institutional investors for investors in Europe.

This is why I want to introduce you to our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) with this special offer.

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We’ve Added a Good Value Share


There is a new good value share in one of the portfolios we track in our Purposeful investing Course( Pi).

The portfolio is called the ENR Pifolio and is derived from the ENR Asset Management “Advisory Extra Report”, a monthly report offered only to ENR Asset Manager investors with the largest portfolios who choose their own investments with ENR’s assistance.

This ENR Pifolio had a starting value of 138,880 in September 2105.  The value was over $169,929 as of April 28, 2016.

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3 days left to order Ecuador Mothers Day Roses

ENR added one share (Mead Johnson Nutrition Co.) to the buy list and removed one share.

Eric Roseman CEO of ENR wrote in the monthly Advisory Extra Report:

The Boom in Infant Formula and How to Play the Next Big Buyout in the Food Business

One company, we think, holds a top-brand premium on infant formula and it dominates the global market, including China – home to a few hundred million babies. And most importantly, in 2015, the Chinese government abandoned the ‘one-child policy’ rule, opening the door to larger families and of course, greater demand for MJN’s products.

enr asset management

Founded way back in 1900 in Jersey City, New Jersey, by Edward Mead Johnson, Sr., Mead Johnson Nutrition (NYSE-MJN) earned more than $4 billion dollars in revenues last year and ranks as the largest player in the infant formula market.

With a wide moat based on strong brands, Mead Johnson is well-positioned in an industry that’s poised to consolidate. As the premier pure-play pediatric nutrition company, Mead Johnson is linked to demographic trends, benefiting from emerging-market industrialization and female workforce mobilization while suffering from efforts to increase breastfeeding. Scale drives research, sales, and marketing investments, all of which reinforce Mead Johnson’s intangible assets and create barriers to meaningful entry. The firm’s products are aspirational in developing markets where trust in the safety of locally produced products is often low; therefore, we think Mead Johnson will capture share as incomes rise.

Buyout Target

What really appeals to us is the high likelihood of a buyout offer for Mead Johnson. It’s public information that MNJ is seeking a tie-up, but probably with a smaller competitor so anti-trust concerns are avoided.

We view a takeover by Group Danone (Paris-BN) as more likely than a Nestlé (Zurich-NESN) acquisition for anti-trust reasons.

Nestlé and Mead Johnson have strong market share in China and the U.S., with the former leading the Chinese industry (Mead Johnson is #2) and the latter pacing its American counterpart (Nestlé is #3). Nestlé’s acquisition of Pfizer’s infant nutrition business caught regulatory scrutiny in 2012, and we expect that further consolidation may draw regulators, particularly in China. By contrast, Danone’s presence is smaller than Nestlé’s in China, and the firm is not a large participant in the U.S.

The real long-term driver for Mead Johnson Nutrition is the growth of emerging market incomes, an increasingly affluent female working population in countries like China and India, and the termination of China’s one-child policy. These bullish developments should more than offset the declining demographics in the West and Japan, and the challenges facing the middle class in the industrialized economies.

MJN now trades 17% below its all-time high of $102.85. A potential bid should boost the stock significantly higher from current levels as any suitor will pay a premium to own this brand. BUY Mead Johnson Nutrition (NYSE-MJN) at market up to $87.50.

enr asset management

Based on the ENR advisory extra buy and hold chart above, we sold one share in the portfolioand invested the proceeds in  Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (Symbol MJN).

This is the ENR Advisory Model Portfolio as of April 28, 2017.

tradestops.com

Click on chart to enlarge.

For more Information on how to use the ENR Advisory service contact Thomas Fischer:  Thomas@enrasset.com

ENR’s report states that investors should always consult a professional regarding specific legal or tax matters and that 1)  ENR or its employees or its access persons own shares of Freeport-McMoRan Inc., Dollar Tree Stores, Cisco Systems.

You can learn more about Pi, and how to view the entire the ENR Pifolio and ENR Advisory Report below.

Gary

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pi’s Basic Purpose


This reply to a Pi subscriber clarifies how Pi can help in one of three ways.

A long time subscriber sent a note after reading a January 2016 CNBC headline that said “Red alert: A $1 trillion stock bubble ready to pop”.  He asked, Does this affect your thinking? 

I sent this reader the chart of the MSCI Word Index since 1970 (below) and a lengthy reply.

msci world index

MSCI Word Index since 1970.

Here is my reply:  This is a good question.   The answer has little to do with markets, but relates to questions of time, mentality, comfort and life’s purpose instead.

Most investors spend too much time deciding what markets will do, when the focus should be on their emotions and reactions to the market.  Emotions usually determine profits and losses, not the markets.

The 45 year chart (above) of the MSCI World Index shows that markets are not the problem.  If an investor simply invested in this index and left it alone for the last 45 years they increased their money by more than ten times without any worries, fuss or bother.  In addition if they did so with an Index ETF, they lost little in trading costs.

The MSCI World Index  captures large and mid cap representation across 23 Developed Market countries. With 1,653 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.  You cannot diversify much more than that.  Yet an investment into the ETF  iShares MSCI World (symbol XWD.TO) is like investing equally into all those shares.

However, we can do better than the world index.   An equally weighted portfolio of Top Value country ETFs outperforms the total world ETF.

The difference between a bull market and a bear is time.  We know that the world stock markets have been in a bull market since 1970.   It can be argued that we are at the end of a seven year bull market.  My strategy is based on the belief that we are at the end of a 17 year bear and headed to a 17 year bull market.

I ask Pi subscribers to ask themselves, ‘How do I feel about timing?  What is more important to me, getting out of the bear or getting into the bull?’

All investors should ask (and answer)  “How do I feel when my investments go up or down?How do I react to how I feel?”

In addition all investing strategies should take the cost of stress and the value in quality of life into account.  Here are some thoughts:

How much time does one want to spend fiddling with shares?

Where do we want to find our agony and ecstasy, in share fluctuations or elsewhere?

Do we have better places to spend our time?

Do we feel we really can out think the market?

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) tracks three types of portfolio that make top value investing easier, safer and more profitable.

The first type of portfolio is the Primary Pifolio.  This is the portfolio that Merri and I use.  We simply diversify into the good value markets as defined by Keppler Asset Management and leave the timing for the long term.  The portfolio may rise or fall but I believe in long term prospects and believe that we will be better off if we leave our portfolio alone and do not try to time the markets.

This strategy stops me from meddling and muddling our investments with wrong decisions.  Our tactics ignore the emotions I go through when shares in my portfolio rise and fall.  This is good because my nature is to become attached to my investments and let my emotions cloud my logic.

Investing in  an equally weighted, diversified, good value portfolio and leaving it alone helps me avoid losses caused by the behavior gap.

This strategy also gives me more time to think about other things such as long term strategy and to spend more time in my business, where I have a much greater chance of making profit.  I’ll ride through storms because I believe in the long term growth prospects of this broadly diversified, equally weighted mix good value equities.  Plus I avoid a lot of trading costs.

The 2nd Pifolio follows Richard Smith’s Tradestops “Smart Trailing Stop 2.0” system.

Smith, like Keppler is a mathematician whom I trust very much.  Instead of using a buy and hold strategy, Smith creates trailing stops based on moving average algorithms.  The computer generated calculations recommend when to sell and when to buy back in.

This approach may create higher profits, if the trailing stop discipline is adhered to.  I am not sure I have the mentality to sell (as the algorithms suggest) most of my portfolio right now.  I agonize over making decisions, so I am often too slow getting in.  However, once I make a choice, I am stubborn and am often too slow getting out.   This means that following a Trailing Stops trading discipline is emotionally hard for me.  My chances of screwing up a good thing by second guessing are high.  Instead I use  a modified approach and let the Trailing Stop alerts warn me when to hold back on investing more.

The third portfolio we track is composed of specific shares selected by Eric Roseman and Thomas Fischer at ENR Asset Management.  ENR uses good value principles for those who feel comfortable with a diversified portfolio of individual shares instead of indices.

When this primer was issued (January 2016) ENR  was recommending to their advisory clients: “Buy long-term bonds, Buy reverse-market indexes, Buy option exchanges, Gold bullion, Raise cash reserves.”

ENR had 12 shares in their recommended portfolio at that time including CBOE Holdings, (NASDAQ CBOE), ProShares Short S&P 500 Index, iShares MSCI EAFE Minimum Volatility ETF (NYSE EFAV) Fanuc Corporation (Tokyo 6954).  These shares were shown in the ENR Piflio Updates.

Pi’s philosophy is not based on the question  “What are markets going to do?”

Pi’s philosophy is based around answers to these questions:

  • How do I react to the ups and downs in equity markets?
  • What type of investing philosophy am I most comfortable with?
  • Which plan am I most likely to stick to?

Support for this thinking comes from a quote from Warren Buffet in the 2013 Berkshire-Hathaway Annual Report:

“Most investors, of course, have not made the study of business prospects a priority in their lives. If wise,  they will conclude that they do not know enough about specific businesses to predict their future earning power.

“I have good news for these non-professionals: The typical investor doesn’t need this skill. In aggregate, American business has done wonderfully over time and will continue to do so (though, most assuredly, in unpredictable fits and starts). In the 20th Century, the Dow Jones Industrials index advanced from 66 to 11,497, paying a rising stream of dividends to boot. The 21st Century will witness further gains, almost certain to be substantial.  The goal of the non-professional should not be to pick winners – neither he nor his “helpers” can do that – but should rather be to own a cross-section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal.

“That’s the “what” of investing for the non-professional. The “when” is also important. The main danger is that the timid or beginning investor will enter the market at a time of extreme exuberance and then become disillusioned when paper losses occur. (Remember the late Barton Biggs’ observation: “A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.”) The antidote to that kind of mistiming is for an investor to accumulate shares over a long period and never to sell when the news is bad and stocks are well off their highs. Following those rules, the “know-nothing” investor who both diversifies and keeps his costs minimal is virtually certain to get satisfactory results. Indeed, the unsophisticated investor who is realistic about his shortcomings is likely to obtain better long-term results than the knowledgeable professional who is blind to even a single weakness.

“My money, I should add, is where my mouth is: What I advise here is essentially identical to certain instructions I’ve laid out in my will. One bequest provides that cash will be delivered to a trustee for my wife’s benefit. (I have to use cash for individual bequests, because all of my Berkshire shares will be fully distributed to certain philanthropic organizations over the ten years following the closing of my estate.)  My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund.  (I suggest Vanguard’s.)  I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors – whether pension funds, institutions or individuals – who employ high-fee managers.”

Pi’s strategy is based on the long term, big picture belief that in the 21st Century business will have strong further gains.  There will be more productivity through innovation (more supply) and a growing global population (more demand).

We do not have to depend on what equity markets will do short term. In the long term, share prices will rise (albeit in spurts).  Our best individual investing strategies should be centered around our individual beliefs and understanding of ourselves.  We each need to have an honest grip of how we individually feel and react to the spurts that equity markets will have.   We each need to choose a strategy that suits our personality and one that we can stick with.

Our individual strategy should reflect what we each want from our remaining years.

Personally at 70 I hope to have 30 years left (Mom’s 93 and still going strong so why not?) but whatever time I am graced with, I would like to spend as much of it in enjoyable pursuits.  Sitting in front of a monitor, watching and anticipating short term stock market moves and trading stocks is not one of the favored choices for me.

I hope this explanation of Pi’s core beliefs helped clarify the situation for the subscriber reader and helps you understand how Pi can assist you in reducing risk and increasing profits.

Gary

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

Multi Currency Value Seminar Montreal


Multi Currency Investing Seminar October 10-11-12, 2014.

montreal

Join us for the leaf change and a multi currency investing seminar in Montreal.

quebec city

After Montreal we’ll have an optional trip on Rail Canada to Quebec City to  spend the night at the Chateau Frontenac where we’ll talk about global economics, self publishing, super thinking or whatever.

The multi currency seminar integrates lessons on Super Thinking with  protecting purchasing power and pensions with multi currency investing. The course teaches how to add safety and create to profit from multi currency breakouts.

Value Investing Outside the Box. Here is a partial syllabus of the Multi currency value investing seminar:

* See new breakout possibilities… in global investing.

* How to have the three point command posture. Live in one country – Earn in a second country – Bank and invest in a third country.

*  Benefits of early investments in an oil that’s up 22.8 times in the past ten years.

* Beyond Gold.  Three hard assets that protect against all currency erosion.

* The Small Country Effect.  Why small markets rise more than large ones.

* Three Top Value small markets and how to easily invest small or large amounts.

* The Borrow Low Strategy. Borrow at 3% and invest for 8.47%

* The best four currencies for the year ahead.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as WHICH CURRENCIES to invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s… and we have worked with Jyske Bank…. one of the largest currency traders in the world for over 25 years.  We have a strategic alliance with ENR Asset Management a Canadian investment management company that works with Jyske Bank so Americans can gain multi currency investments as well as Canadian and Danish investments.

Eric Roseman and Thomas Fischer will review portfolio and currency updates.  Thomas and Eric have worked with us for nearly two decades.

* Seven Strong Buy Stocks that rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* We’ll also look at the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.   We will share why the value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s Up With Gold and Silver.  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars – how interest rates at zero eliminate opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* New tax strategies.  How to create businesses that earn income and reduce tax.

At the seminar we will update Ecuador real estate and residency rules with data provided by our own Ecuador attorneys.

What to do in Ecuador & why. Where’s next… benefits in Cuba & Argentina.

* How to protect your savings, your pension with multi currency investments.

* How to be more Intelligent with Super Thinking.

* Ecuador Living & Emerging Country Living Review.

Super Thinking.  There are numerous little known, but scientifically proven ways to enhance the speed, accuracy and efficiency of your decision making process for greater wealth, health and happiness.

In this three day seminar you can gain almost amazing learning skills. At least three best selling books, Superlearning, the Mozart Effect and Superlearning 2000 have revealed insights about how we can learn and think more powerfully based on systems drawn from the Bulgarian, Dr. Georgi Lozanov and his incredible techniques which Merri had the privilege of studying in the 1970s. In 1980 Superlearning sold over two million copies and showed how the Lozanov learning system blended long-tested sciences of yoga with contemporary physiology and psychology so people could learn faster and better.

This system teaches how to integrate brain waves through all five sense so the process of absorbing, processing and recalling information is vastly accelerated.  You learn how to use music, aromas, touch, colors and tastes to gain the three C’s:  Calm, Clarity and Coherence. This is a course that shows you how to increase your mental power to better succeed in the 21st century when we can otherwise be overwhelmed by so much information. We are in our 46th year of business.  We share what we have learned in our upcoming seminar.

Join us. Spotting new trends and applying them to our micro business has brought us a strong and continual flow of income through good times and bad.  More importantly the process has been fulfilling… has helped the world and our health.   Now you can benefit from the latest… and perhaps strongest… of all the trends we have stumbled upon. Applying the concepts of Super Thinking to spotting trends over the past 45 years has helped thousands of our readers make and save millions.   The success of our readers has been a driving force in our lives. We have always wanted to do more so continued looking deeper at ways we can share how to have income, stability, good health and contentment. Join us to learn our most recent experiences and most advanced concepts and ideas.

Join Merri and me at our Super Thinking + Multi Currency Investing Seminar  Enroll here $799.   Couple $999

Save $699 to $899

We have two Super Thinking + Spanish courses scheduled for the year ahead. Enroll in the Montreal Seminar and you gain a full scholarship to one of these the Spanish courses of your choice.  You save $699 (single) to $899 (couple).

July 18-19-20 Super Thinking + Spanish, West Jefferson, North Carolina. (Normally $899.)

January  16-17-18 Super Thinking + Spanish, Mt. Dora, Fl. (Normally $999.)

Merri and I look forward to being with you in Montreal, the Blue Ridge and/or in Mount Dora.

The Best Investment


The best investment you can make is in yourself… in your intelligence. The second best is in value.

Learn how to “Get Smarter” at our Super Thinking + Spanish course. We have two places left in January. See more here.

Recently a reader asked me if I had read the latest edition of an investment newsletter produced by a well known economist.

My reply: Someone does send this to me but I never read this or any other newsletters. If I do I’ll find one really good evidence that shows why everything will go up and another why it’ll all go down and a final one that will say it will all stay the same.

I stick instead to the data flow I have developed over the past 40 years and consume the raw data thus coming to my own conclusions.   Then we try to to focus on how to helping ourselves and readers become more intelligent so they can prosper no matter which way the wind blows.

With just a quick glance it appears that this guy is looking at pretty much the same data I do and write about often.  His focus is on long term bull – bear trends and value.
Here is the most recent bull – bear chart I have sent readers.

dow-chart

The problem with depending too much on these charts is that small shifts in reference points leads to greatly different conclusions.

One can predict (and manage investments) of very small moves of equity and currency valuations in the very short term.  This is a massive industry… speculating on short tem volatility.  One can predict very long term trends.

What one cannot do is zero in on is the price of a currency, equity of commodity  in any one particular day, month or year.

One cannot depend on upticks in our investments always nicely coinciding with our financial needs.

There is little doubt that there have been major bull and bear cycles of about 15 years up and 15 years down since 1900 or even earlier.  The last bear cycle started quite clearly in 2000 and was less severe (probably  due to government tinkering) in its early stages than preceding bears.  Hence the more severe downturn now.

Previous bears last nine years (1906 to 1915) 13 years (1929 to 1942) 16 years (1966 to 1982).

Having said this, our research suggests the bear will end in 2013 to 2014…. but if each bear is lasting longer and this trend continues, we could see the bear going to 2018 before the next big upwards move.

The keys as I have written often could be war… the huge conflict or an effort on mankind that creates new waves of technology. The boom has always been fueled by this technology being shifted from military to domestic use… steam power… internal combustion power… jet power… internet, etc.

Watch for this struggle and the new technology.  They will be really important early indicators of the next bull indicator.

One of my key sources of analysis is Keppler Asset Management.

Once a quarter we look at a major and emerging equity market value analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Keppler’s January issue will arrive shortly and we’ll be reviewing it at this site.

In the meantime, we also track the investment breakdown of the State Street Major and Emerging Market Global Advantage Funds because Keppler is adviser to these funds.

This review gives us a hint about good value shares in the good value markets.

The investment objective of the major market fund is to beat the Morgan Stanley Capital World Total Return Index and is described as described by State Street here.

state-street-data

The emerging market fund has a similar objective but with an emerging market index.

state-street-data

The performance of these funds shows how following value has beat the market long term.

Major Market

state-street-data

Emerging Market

state-street-data

This approch has proven itself to outperform the average.

keppler

Another of our data sources is the breakdown of these funds. If they outperform the market long term, it makes sense to understand where they are diversified.

Here is the latest major market fund allocation breakdown.

state-street-data

State Street Global Advantage Emerging Market Fund reveiw.

state-street-data

One simple way for non Americans to diversify in global stocks is to simply invest in this fund.

state-street-data

The fund is not registered for sale to US investors but we Yanks can learn where we may want to diversify by looking at where the fund invests.

One way Americans can duplicate global diversification of this nature is with Jyske Global Asset Management. Get details from Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com . Non Americans should write Rene Mathys mathys@jbpb.dk

Another simple approach to finding global value is the MSCI EAFE Value ETF (symbol EFV).

This fund seeks investment results that correspond to the MSCI EAFE® Value Index and invests at least 90% of its assets in the securities of the index or in depositary receipts representing securities in the index.

The MSCI EAFE® Value Index  is composed of about 50% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the MSCI EAFE® Index… half that are classified by MSCI as most representing the value style.

Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. (MSCI) is a leading provider of global indices and benchmark related products and services to investors worldwide.

The MSCI EAFE Index covers Europe, Australasia, Far East and is market capitalization index that measures the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 22 developed market country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

Investing in EAFE is like investing in a spread of shares that compass all 22 indices.

MSCI then refines the indices into value and growth that cover the full range of MSCI Developed, Emerging and All Country Indices across large, mid and small cap size segmentations. They also cover large and mid cap size segments for the MSCI Frontier Markets Indices. The indices are constructed using an approach that provides a precise definition of style using eight historical and forward-looking fundamental data points for every security. Each security is placed into either the Value or Growth Indices, or may be partially allocated to both (with no double counting). The objective of this index design is to divide constituents of an underlying MSCI Equity Index into respective value and growth indices, each targeting 50% of the free float adjusted market capitalization of the underlying market index.

Investing in the MSCI EAFE® Value Index is like investing in half of the shares in these 22 indices that are considered good value by MSCI.

This chart from finance.yahoo.com shows how the fund has fared since inception. Value investments generally make most of their profit during recoveries and this chart confirms this fact.

EFV chart

Keppler’s value analysis suggests that shares are still historically undervalued and that over the next three years would rise 19.2% to stay in line with long term patterns.

keppler

However a global bond fund may have been a better way to store wealth in the last three decades.

Multi Currency portfolio subscribers can see a full report why bonds have been better for the past 3o years at their password protected site here.

See how to get a multi currency portfolio password here.

Gary

Join us at our February International Investment & Business Seminar where we focus on how to find investing value… buy better bonds and “Get Smarter” in investing and business.

Important Value Investments Idea


See how to get really important value investments ideas.

Now is the time when value is most accessible but also when it is hardest to believe in value.

See how something very interesting … an MSCI European Index has collapsed and why I am smiling.

Click here.

Gary

Storing Wealth Made EZ


Storing Wealth Made EZ

mcsi indices

These charts from Bloomberg.com of the Morgan Stanley World Index and

mcsi indices

and the MSCI ALL World Index shows how risky the economic world has become.

The MSCI World is a stock market index of over 6,000 ‘world’ stocks. It is maintained by MSCI Inc., formerly Morgan Stanley Capital International, and is often used as a common benchmark for ‘world’ or ‘global’ stock funds.

The index includes a collection of stocks of all the developed markets in the world, as defined by MSCI. The index includes securities from 24 countries but excludes stocks from emerging and frontier economies making it less worldwide than the name suggests.

A broader index, the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI), incorporates both developed and emerging countries.

The volatility of these markets over the past five years shows how we have edged into an increasingly risky world.

Here are three ways to store wealth in this high risk world.

Over the past four decades global economic tensions in the USA and Europe have twisted like gigantic tectonic plates colliding at seismic faults.  Government and private debt, aging populations and huge, unfunded future obligations have slowly but relentlessly built and distorted fiscal reality while a younger emerging world grew bold and rich through low cost labor.

Finally this monetary stress unleashed an earthquake of financial reform that threatens every financial aspect of the modern world.  Banks, stocks, bonds, government debt and most currencies have all been thrown into stagflationary shock…where inflation rips purchasing power apart at the same time that wages and employment opportunities fall.

This shift has put almost every investment at risk and raises the question, “How can one store wealth in such an atmosphere?”

High Risk World

Most investments are now at risk because most savings and capital come in the form of a promise. Stocks are a promise of shared earnings and growth in business. Bonds are a promise of money used and returned with interest. Bank and savings accounts are a promise of money kept and cared for to be returned at the owners’ desire.

Currencies are promises of products and services delivered later from products and services given now.

We are in times when few promises… especially those made in terms of paper currency can be kept.

Traditionally Swiss francs and precious metals, especially gold and silver are the favored stores of wealth.  These investments should usually play a part in portfolios as insurance. 5% to 10% of a portfolio in metals and hard currencies is a general rule of thumb.

These hard assets were good ideas for speculation a year or two or even a few months ago.  Not when they are at all times highs though. History suggests that their high price puts their promise as a store of value at risk. In previous monetary corrections when the price of Swiss francs, gold and silver exploded upwards… the peak was followed by a harsh… extended downfall.

Storing Wealth Made EZ

Today investors and businesses need a new mindset for storing wealth…a thought pattern that leads in new ways to  make a relentless search for diversification, necessity and value.

Here are some tips that lead to professional investing who can help you make it easy to zero in on three ways to store of wealth in the high risk years ahead.

Diversification  –  Non Correlated Investments

The first way to store value is to look beyond stocks, bonds and certificates of deposit .

Stocks, bonds and certificates of deposit are the traditional ways that most investors and savers store wealth.

These three asset classes usually offer non synchronized opportunity. Their movements are connected.  When cash investments make sense… shares and bonds may not be such good buys.  When shares are rising… bonds are falling and vice versa.

When economic and fiscal problems create systemic risk… as they are now,  the entire system is shaken and all three asset classes… stocks, bonds and cash may be at risk.

One non correlated type of investment is a managed currency or forex speculation investment.  Such investments are aimed at profiting on currency parity fluctuations which have little to do with stock or bonds so these fluctuations are not correlated to any of these asset classes.

An example is the Managed Forex Account offered by Jyske Global Asset Management in Copenhagen. These accounts offer a fundamentally managed forex service where every investor has a separate account.  This is a very low leverage service with a maximum of four times leverage depending on each individual’s risk profile.

Experienced JGAM currency traders borrow currencies they believe will fall in value and invest the loans in currencies they believe will rise versus the borrowed currency.  Then they use 24 -7 overview and stop losses to cut losses short and to let profitable positions ride.

Borrowed Currencies

Current JGAM is leveraging the account with one third US Dollar, one third Japanese yen and one third euro loans.

The dollar is weak in JGAM’s opinion because the Federal Reserve (Fed) is under no pressure to normalize policy any time soon and will keep the interest at the very low level until mid-2013.  This announcement makes the US dollar (USD) attractive as a funding currency, which should have a negative effect on the USD.

They have borrowed euro because on the other side of the Atlantic the eurozone has many unsolved debt challenges, which create a distrust of the euro. This distrust make investors sell euro (EUR).  The challenge is that both currencies cannot weaken at the same time (verus each other).

As of mid August 2011 Morgan Stanley’s (MS’s) EUR/USD target for Q3 is 1.40 and Bank Credit Analysts (BCA) predict 1.55. It is currently trading at 1.4240.

The Japanese yen (JPY) is a borrowed currency because it has strengthened so much due to the turmoil in the global economy. MS and BCA are both arguing that JPY inflows will remain substantial as long the uncertainty is intact.

However, Bank of Japan (BoJ) has intervened several times (sold JPY) in order to stem the JPY rally. BoJ has announced that it has increased the amount of its asset purchase program, which creates plenty of ammunition for further interventions. BCA is bullish on the JPY while MS is neutral to bearish.

Because of the current situation with financial uncertainty and divided expectations, JGAM decided to continue with the current loan mix, consisting of three equally weighted funding currencies.

Diversification is JGAM’s strategy and their existing currency positions (August 20, 2011) are:

The Singapore dollar (SGD) which has retracted upward lately (weaker SGD) and broke the 1.2100 resistance level against USD. However, JGAM remains confident of the SGD fundamentals and maintains their long SGD and short USD position. They are keeping their stop loss order at USD/SGD 1.2740.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) has suffered the past month and moved from 0.9433 to 0.9850 against the USD.  The sudden change in sentiment happened on the back of softening economic data and in generally weaker commodity currencies. However, the Canadian economy is outperforming its southern neighbor and Bank of Canada (BoC) should gradually normalize fiscal policy while odds of additionally Fed easing are rising. The diverging monetary policies should over time push USD/CAD lower (stronger CAD). Therefore, JGAM has kept this position.

Learn more about JGAM’s forex account for Americans from Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Learn about Jyske for non Americans from René Mathys at mathys@jbpb.dk

 (GRV) Mars Hill Global Relative Value ETF

Another non correlated investment is the Mars Hill Global Relative Value ETF (GRV).   The goal of this ETF is to generate consistent positive returns in excess of the average annual return of the MSCI World Index using  a “Relative Value” approach to identify long positions within the major global regions that they expect will outperform the Index and an equal amount of short positions within the major global regions that they expect will underperform the Index.

This core long/short portfolio construction is designed to mitigate the directional influence of the global equity markets and instead seeks to profit from the spread between its long and short positions, which are prevalent throughout flat, rising and falling market environments.

This ETF reduces market exposure as its investments are fully hedged like a hedge fund, but as a New York Stock Exchange traded share has an open book so investors can see the high degree of risk management. The short positions offer a hedge against a decline in global equity markets, while concurrently offering an opportunity to even generate positive returns in such an environment.

The Fund employs an equal amount of long and short positions regardless of market direction so can profit whether the market is on a rise or fall.

The Fund’s Relative Value approach looks for attractive positions that bring added return and liquidity for the risk.

Because of the long/short strategy, the performance positions create a return stream that is expected to have a low correlation with both stocks and bonds.

This GRV ETF invests in many countries, sectors and industry groups to provide global diversification.

Necessity – Invest in Agriculture and Water

farm water

One reason Merri and I purchased our Blue Ridge farm is an abundance of…

farm water

spring fed water and dozens and dozens of artisian wells.

The second way to store wealth is in necessities.   No matter the state of the economy… basic necessities remain… food clothing and shelter.

Clothing perhaps can wait… but eating and drinking cannot.

Water is becoming a scarce resource yet investment in water treatment and infrastructure has been low due to artificially low prices.  This trend is changing as supply and demand realities  overwhelm political expediency.

Water is becoming a leading global commodity as the world population increases and increases the demand for clean water.  Global water demand has increased almost twice as fast as population growth in recent years.

Global population growth and water withdrawals that are already 275% higher now than 50 years ago add trillion dollar potential to this industry.

Modern farming creates the greatest demand on water for agricultural irrigation, so investments in water also are investments in food.

Investments in shares of water processing companies can provide multi currency diversification.

For example, holding just these three shares diversifies savings globally into dollars, euro and Singapore dollars!

American Water Works Co. – USA –US Dollar. This company  provides drinking water, wastewater and other water-related services in multiple states and Ontario, Canada. The Company’s primary business involves the ownership of regulated water and wastewater utilities that provide water and wastewater services to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Symbol NYSE: AWK.

 

Veolia Environnement S.A. – France – Euro.  This firm operates utility and public transportation businesses. The Company supplies drinking water, provides waste management services, manages and maintains heating and air conditioning systems, and operates rail and road passenger transportation systems.  Veolia ADRS symbol at NYSE:VE

Hyflux  – Singapore – Singapore Dollar. Hyflux is a leading provider of integrated water management and environmental solutions with operations and projects in Singapore, Southeast Asia, China India, Algeria, the Middle East and North Africa. Symbol OTC: HYFXF

water share chart

This finance.yahoo.com chart of the Water Shares Index shows that water shares are down… a short term fear based drop on a long term fundamentally sector.

For greater diversification several exchange traded funds are designed to give a diversified investment in water.

PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio (NYSEArca: PHO)

PowerShares Global Water Portfolio ETF (NYSEArca: PIO)

Guggenheim S&P Global Water Index (NYSEArca: CGW)

First Trust ISE Water Index Fund (NYSEArca: FIW)

Necessity – Shelter – Real Estate

The collapse of American real estate prices combined with rising construction costs and the fact that the USA is growing faster than any other industrialized country in the world creates an outstanding store of wealth.

Studies have shown that Americans today occupy almost 20% more developed land (housing, schools, stores, roads) than 20 years ago.  By the late 1990s, 1.7 acres — the equivalent of about 220 parking spaces or 16 basketball courts — were developed for every person added to the population.

As America’s population expands from 300 to 400 million people the next 100 million people will at present standards create 73 million new jobs, about 70 million new homes and 100 billion square feet of non-residential space.

The overhang from the overbuilding in the mid 2000s cannot supply this demand for long.

Extraordinarily low US property prices are already attracting increasing numbers of people from around the world.  For example, Visit Florida reported that visitor numbers for the second quarter of 2009 were up 6.9% over the same period as last year to about 21 million visitors.  Estimates show that US visitors increased 5.3%, overseas visitors increased 17.3% and Canadian visitors 18.4%.  About 82 million visitors spent 60 billion dollars in 2010.

One way to invest in US real estate is with a US real estate ETF.  An August 5, 2011  ETF Digest article entitled “Top 10 Real Estate ETFs” points out that: “There is currently an expanding list of nearly 20 ETFs oriented to primarily REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) with more on the way”.

Included in the list are:

Vanguard REIT ETF(VNQ_) follows the MSCI US REIT Index which covers about 2/3 of all REITs in the U.S. market.

iShares DJ U.S. Real Estate ETF(IYR_) follows the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index which measures the real estate industry primarily through REITs.

SPDR DJ Wilshire REIT ETF(RWR_) follows the Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT Index consists primarily of REITs in commercial real estate.

Good Value Equities

The third way to store value is with good value equities. This is traditionally the best long term investment.

A long term multi currency research project by asset allocation expert, Ibbotson Associates, looked at various returns over 95 years of differing assets classes under varied conditions.

The asset classes we bonds, T-bills. Equities, Housing and Silver. Over the entire 95 years the return was:

Equities: 11.9% per annum

Housing: 6.7% per annum

Bonds: 4.8% per annum

T-Bills: 4.6% per annum

Silver: 4.2% per annum

However the results were very different when the economy was split and viewed in five different conditions, Stable. Moderate Inflation, Rapid Inflation and Deflation.  Equities outperformed all asset classes except during rapid inflation when silver performed better and deflation when bonds were the best bet.

If stagflationary trends continue (inflation and recession) the economic slowdown will add a drag to the industrial and demand side of metals making them suspect as a dependable store of value.

The easiest way to diversify in equities globally is via an ETF  that tracks one of MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital Index) Indicies.

The MSCI World is a stock market index of over 6,000 ‘world’ stocks. It is maintained by MSCI Inc., formerly Morgan Stanley Capital International, and is often used as a common benchmark for ‘world’ or ‘global’ stock funds.

The index includes a collection of stocks of all the developed markets in the world, as defined by MSCI. The index includes securities from 24 countries but excludes stocks from emerging and frontier economies making it less worldwide than the name suggests.

A broader index, the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI), incorporates both developed and emerging countries.

Here are two US traded ETFs that give various global equity diversification.

The iShares MSCI ACWI Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI All Country World Index.

The Rydex MSCI EAFE Equal Weight ETF seeks investment results generally corresponding to the price + yield performance of the MSCI EAFE Equal Weighted Index. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Equal Weighted Index equally weights the securities in the MSCI EAFE Index (MSCI EAFE Cap-Weighted Index), which is a free float-adjusted market cap index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the USA & Canada.

Having enjoyed global financial stability for almost 60 years, the mindset of most investors has become used to stocks bonds and CDs.  These investments have been considered as safe as the Western governments in an expanding industrialized work.

Not since the 1930s, when all financial institutions were questioned, has so much of the global economic system been shaken. This puts all stocks, bonds and cash instruments at greater risk.   The three ideas above and many professional money managers can help make the process of storing wealth in this risky world safer and easy.

Gary

Learn how to get my full  Multi Currency report here.

You can learn more about ETFs from Morgan Hatfield at Ruggie Wealth. Her email is mhatfield@ruggiewealth.com

Tom Ruggie of Ruggie Wealth was featured on the Flashpoint Talk Show last week.

ruggie-wealth

See Tom Ruggie on Flash Point here.

Join Merri, me and Thomas Fischer from JGAM in North Carolina this October.