Tag Archive | "Value investing"

European Share Recovery


If Europe overcomes COVIS-19 quickly, there may be a double advantage to investing in European shares.

A recent article in the New York Times suggests that Europe has a social advantage that can help end the pandemic more quickly.

nyt.com

Image from New York Times article “Despite Historic Plunge, Europe’s Economy Flashes Signs of Recovery” (1).

National health care amidst social leanings may create a more effective response to our global health dilemma.  See why in excepts from the article below.

The article says (bolds are mine): European countries that have better contained the virus are poised for speedier economic recovery than the United States.

Despite Historic Plunge, Europe’s Economy Flashes Signs of Recovery

European countries that have better contained the virus are poised for speedier economic recovery than the United States.

The United States has spent more than Europe on programs to limit the economic damage of the pandemic. But much of the spending has benefited investors, spurring a substantial recovery in the stock market. Emergency unemployment benefits have proved crucial, enabling tens of millions of jobless Americans to pay rent and buy groceries. But they were set to expire on Friday and there were few signs that Congress would extend them.

Europe’s experience has underscored the virtues of its more generous social welfare programs, including national health care systems.

Americans feel compelled to go to work, even at dangerous places like meatpacking plants, and even when they are ill, because many lack paid sick leave. Yet they also feel pressure to avoid shops, restaurants and other crowded places of business because millions lack health insurance, making hospitalization a financial catastrophe.

“Europe has really benefited from having this system that is more heavily dominated by welfare systems than the U.S.,” said Kjersti Haugland, chief economist at DNB Markets, an investment bank in Oslo. “It keeps people less fearful.”

But for now, Europe’s moment of confidence is palpable, most prominently in Germany, the continent’s largest economy.

Surveys show that German managers — not a group inclined toward sunny optimism — have seen expectations for future sales return to nearly pre-virus levels.

That buoyancy translates directly into growth, emboldening companies to rehire furloughed workers.

The double benefit comes because Germany is also one of the best value developed markets in the world.

The value analysis of developed markets shows that the average price to book of German share is currently 1.48 compared to the US average of 3.69.  This means one can buy into the German stock market at a 59% discount compared to US shares, plus get paid an extra  half percent (.54% actually) income for getting the bargain.  The average income paid by US shares is 1.80% and is 2.59% from German shares.

keppler

Add these three benefits together, higher income, much lower price and a faster chance of pandemic recovery.

My personal portfolio includes the iShares German country ETF, as well as four other European country ETFs country ETFs, Italy, Norway, Spain, the United Kingdom, as well as for Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore.

This diversification adds safety to my portfolio, increases the average dividend I receive, gives me the best value and adds the chances of a COVID-19 recovery spurt.

Gary

Coronavirus and the Stock Market Round One is Done

Coronavirus and the stock market.  Round Two is coming.

This virus and the market faced off in the spring.  The market won.  As the chart below shows, after a huge March 2020 collapse, by early June, the DJIA was back to its December 2019 level.

stock chart

The market’s back up, but history suggests that we’ll see volatility in the ten years ahead.

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  The .dotcom bubble burst just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

The market then went nowhere from 2000 to 2014.   Finally it started reaching new high levels.

Such decades long sideways movement after a severe correction is nothing new in the stock market.

So everything’s in order… except the pandemic.  The ravages of the coronavirus dramatically increase the unknown and this uncertainty is the greatest purveyor  of weakness that a stock market can have.

How do we maximize the return on your savings and investments during this extremely dangerous time?

For the past four and a half years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain income and appreciation from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course to determine which markets offer the best value so we can be in a perfect position to take advantage of stock market corrections all over the world.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

You can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but during the pandemic to introduce you to this online course  I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy, diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

 

 

 

When Value and Leadership Combine


Opportunity is squared when mathematical value and new fundamental strengths come together.

Five of the eight “Buy” developed country ETFs we hold in our “Developed Market Porfolio” are European; Germany, Italy,  Norway, Spain and the United Kingdom at equal weights. The remainder are Asian, Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore.

Those choices are made entirely based on a math based equation that looks at each markets price-to-book, price earnings, average dividend and other such price and risk-return circumstances.

That match brings good news because the portfolio is about to receive a boost due to a fundamental factor created by the pandemic. 

The New York Times article, “The Which Country Will Triumph in the Post-Pandemic World?” shows how Germany has positioned itself to gain faster, stronger e onomic recovery due to good pandemic avoidance leadership.

The article says:  Imagine a country, a major Western economic power, where the coronavirus arrived late but the government, instead of denying and delaying, acted early. It was ready with tests and contact tracing to “flatten the curve” swiftly and limited its death rate to orders of magnitude lower than that of any other major Western industrial nation. Containing the virus allowed for a brief and targeted lockdown, which helped limit unemployment to only 6 per cent. Amid a shower of international praise, the country’s boringly predictable leader experienced a huge spike in popular approval, to 70 per cent from 40 per cent.

This mirror image of America under President Trump is Germany under Chancellor Angela Merkel. Her surging popularity has politically marginalised the extreme right and extreme left. German unions have worked closely with bosses to keep factories open and working conditions generally safe (the country’s meatpacking industry was a notable exception). Merkel’s government has coordinated with all the German states to contain the pandemic and with fellow European Union members to establish a recovery fund for nations hardest hit by the virus.

The strengths Germany is showing make it the large economy most likely to thrive in the post-pandemic world.

On top of this German shares offer much better value at this time.

The MSCI German Index is selling at 1.48 Price to Book and pays a 2.34% average dividend compared to the MSCI US Index selling at 3.69 Price to Book and paying a 1.80% average dividend.

When a good value investment gains a new fundamental strength, such as Germany’s good handling of the pandemic, an additional weighting in that investment makes sense.

Gary

Add Safety & Get Paid 154% More

Get paid more now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not right now.

This chart from the New York Times article “The Mystery of High Stock Prices” (1) shows that equities pay a higher yield than bonds.

wsj.com

Most Important, Get Paid the Most Now!

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact the chart below shows that US shares pay one of the lousiest yields of the 46 stock markets we monitor around the world.

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.91%.  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.6% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Nine solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay 71% higher yield, 3.27% compared to the US yield of 1.91%.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years. 

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

In a moment, I’ll show how to push that yield to 4.07% per annum without adding additional risk.

keppler62020

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only three times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top (or neutral in the case of Canada and Australia) value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course tracks 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Pi strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

I am updating my plan to increase my average yield to as much as 4.07%.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into nine developed markets: Austria, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The average yield of these nine markets combined was 3.27% as of June 2020.  By replacing the three lowest yielding markets, Austria (.64%), Germany (1.83%)  and Japan (2.51%)  with two better yielding neutral markets Australia (4.57%) and Canada (3.54%) the average annual yield on the entire portfolio rises to 4.07%.

4.07% is 154% higher than the 1.6% you can currently earn on AA rated corporate bonds!

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) www.nytimes.com: mystery of high stock market prices

www.nytimes.com/2020/07/19/opinion/coronavirus-germany-economy.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20200720&instance_id=20450&nl=todaysheadlines&regi_id=48317279&segment_id=33828&user_id=208b2cbe62eb7b536babab791d172bc7

How to Catch the Best Performing Markets


Invest in every stock market.

This is not a wise way to invest, but it’s the only way to be sure to always capture the best short term performing stock market.

pixabay

The only way to capture the best performing stock market each month is to invest in them all.

The downside of this tactic is that you also will be invested in the worst performing stock market.

Therefore its best to find a way increase your odds of being invested the best performer when it happens.

My approach and that of an elite group of investors who use our Pi strategy, choose mathematics to narrow our field of opportunity.  We follow the analysis of Keppler Asset Management, who tracks ever stock in 46 stock markets and using important factors such as price to book value, price to earning and average dividend yield, grades stock markets as top value (buy), neutral value (hold) or poor value (sell).

Currently Keppler’s Top Value Model Portfolio holds eight“Buy”-rated markets Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom at equal weights.

This does not always work, nor does it always seem to make sense short term.

For example in the first six months of 2020, the top three performing stock markets were New Zealand (+12.2%), Denmark (+9.0%) and the Netherlands (-1.1%).  They performed best year-to-date and as the performance chart below shows… two of these top performers are sell candidates.

Yet in June, the month when China revoked Hong Kong’s special status as an autonomous entity, the Hong Kong stock market rose +11.0%, the highest performing stock market of the month.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/50089310228/in/dateposted-public/

https://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/50090120892/in/dateposted-public/

There is always something we do not know, so we never know which markets will rise (or fall) the most in the next month… or quarter… or even in any one year.

However if we look at the 50 year performance of Keppler’s top value strategy we see a dramatic over performance of a top value portfolio… 12.85% per annum versus .87 for an equally weighted global share portfolio.

keppler

The two lessons here is that there is no way to predict equity performance short term, but by mathematically choosing top value stock markets, you gain superior performance long term.

Gary

Add Safety & Get Paid 154% More

Get paid more now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not right now.

This chart from the New York Times article “The Mystery of High Stock Prices” (1) shows that equities pay a higher yield than bonds.

wsj.com

Most Important, Get Paid the Most Now!

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact the chart below shows that US shares pay one of the lousiest yields of the 46 stock markets we monitor around the world.

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.91%.  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.6% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Nine solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay 71% higher yield, 3.27% compared to the US yield of 1.91%.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years. 

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

In a moment, I’ll show how to push that yield to 4.07% per annum without adding additional risk.

keppler62020

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only three times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top (or neutral in the case of Canada and Australia) value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course tracks 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Pi strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

I am updating my plan to increase my average yield to as much as 4.07%.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into nine developed markets: Austria, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The average yield of these nine markets combined was 3.27% as of June 2020.  By replacing the three lowest yielding markets, Austria (.64%), Germany (1.83%)  and Japan (2.51%)  with two better yielding neutral markets Australia (4.57%) and Canada (3.54%) the average annual yield on the entire portfolio rises to 4.07%.

4.07% is 154% higher than the 1.6% you can currently earn on AA rated corporate bonds!

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) www.nytimes.com: mystery of high stock market prices

 

 

4% Per Annum Developed Market Stock Market Income


Learn what’s up with stock market growth, value and dividend yields around the world.

As the US becomes more isolated, we as investors need to become more global.

For decades the US economy was so much larger than any others that everyone was pretty much forced to get along.

stock markets

America’s  dominance has been fading.  The US economy is still estimated to be about a fourth of the world’s total, but the combined economies of China (16% of the global economy), Japan (6%) and Germany (4%) are larger now.  Or the EU economy (22%) is almost as large as the US economy.

In the decades of dominance, the US has been less than competitive compared to the Chinese in developing relationships in Latin America.  Recent activity by the US government has also weakened US, European trade.  Now the European travel ban of U.S. residents creates another economic soft spot, not to mention the potential of stopping foreign students from living in the US.

Now there appears to be a risk that Iran and China will join in a sweeping economic and security partnership that would clear the way for billions of dollars of Chinese investments in energy and other sectors.    The Chinese would invest in Iranian banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and receive Iranian oil over the next 25 years.

China and Iran would also increase military cooperation, that would create new and potentially dangerous flash points in the deteriorating relationship between China and the United States.

As America’s global dominance wanes, the greatest change of long term profits are available to investors when they invest around the world.

A recent Purposeful Investing Course lesson contained an eight page update fro Keppler Asset Management of the best value developed stock markets.  Here are excerpts from  one of the eight pages.

Recent Developments & Outlook

Supported by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, developed market equities advanced for the third consecutive month in June.

The euro advanced 1.0% to 1.1232 vs. the US dollar in June. Year-to-date, it is up 0.1%.

In June, twenty markets were up and three markets declined.

Hong Kong (+11.0%), New Zealand (+8.1%) and Italy (+6.8%) gained most, while Norway (-2.2%), Israel (-0.9%) and Portugal (-0.4%) had the lowest returns.

Year-to-date, only two markets (Denmark and New Zealand) advanced, while twenty-one markets declined.

New Zealand (+12.2%), Denmark (+9.0%) and the Netherlands (-1.1%) performed best year-to-date, while Austria (-31.1 %), Belgium (-23.9%) and Spain (-22.6%) had the lowest returns.

There is one change in our country ratings this month: Austria is downgraded to “Neutral” From “Buy” due to poor developments of her underlying fundamentals.The Top Value Model Portfolio now holds the eight“Buy”- rated markets Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom at equal weights.

According to our analyses, an equally weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

A table in that report shows that the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is currently selling at 1.21 price-to-book and pays an average annual income of 3.57% compared to the MSCI USA Index selling 3.69 price to book and paying only an average 1.80% annual dividend.

The Top Value Model Portfolio is undervalued by 42% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index, by 54% compared to the MSCI USA Index and by a whopping 70% compared to the MSCI World Growth Index.

We can see the benefits of global investing from these excerpts.  Despite Wall Street having its best quarter appreciation in years, it was still not the best performing stock market for the month or for the year to date.

New Zealand (+12.2%), Denmark (+9.0%) and the Netherlands (-1.1%) have performed best year-to-date in 2020.

Humanity’s greatest strength is the ability to cooperate.  Technology forces us to live and cooperate in a global economy.  So as the US withdraws from this greater opportunity, we as investors need to increasingly maintain and expand our global view.

Gary

Add Safety & Get Paid 154% More

Get paid more now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not right now.

This chart from the New York Times article “The Mystery of High Stock Prices” (1) shows that equities pay a higher yield than bonds.

wsj.com

Most Important, Get Paid the Most Now!

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact the chart below shows that US shares pay one of the lousiest yields of the 46 stock markets we monitor around the world.

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.91%.  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.6% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Nine solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay 71% higher yield, 3.27% compared to the US yield of 1.91%.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years. 

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

In a moment, I’ll show how to push that yield to 4.07% per annum without adding additional risk.

keppler62020

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only three times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top (or neutral in the case of Canada and Australia) value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course tracks 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Pi strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

I am updating my plan to increase my average yield to as much as 4.07%.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into nine developed markets: Austria, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The average yield of these nine markets combined was 3.27% as of June 2020.  By replacing the three lowest yielding markets, Austria (.64%), Germany (1.83%)  and Japan (2.51%)  with two better yielding neutral markets Australia (4.57%) and Canada (3.54%) the average annual yield on the entire portfolio rises to 4.07%.

4.07% is 154% higher than the 1.6% you can currently earn on AA rated corporate bonds!

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) www.nytimes.com: mystery of high stock market prices

 

 

What’s Inflation


Inflation is caused by too much money without enough products or services to spend it on.

The quotes below from Yuval Noah Harari, author of several successful books including “Homo Deus: A History of Tomorrow” and “Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind” can help us understand inflation.

Sapiens rule the world because only they can weave an intersubjective web of meaning: a web of laws, forces, entities and places that exist purely in their common imagination. This web allows humans alone to organise crusades, socialist revolutions and human rights movements.”

“Fiction isn’t bad. It is vital. Without commonly accepted stories about things like money, states or corporations, no complex human society can function.

“Money is the most universal and most efficient system of mutual trust ever devised.”

Society needs money.  Money makes it possible for us to buy and sell without bartering.  Money gives us a “medium of exchange,” which allows our complex global, economic system to function.

Money acts as a way to put tangible, universal value on commodities and services.  It helps us compare the value of one thing with another.  Money gives us a “unit of value,” which allows us to make decisions about purchases and investments.

Money needs trust.

With trust, money provides a way to store wealth — to preserve current purchasing power for spending at a later date.

Money must be “real and rare” to have this trust.  Only money created by real production can be real money that survives inflation, because rarity creates trust.

Money must be universal in value and acceptable to everyone, portable, divisible, uniform in quality, durable, safe and rare.

This is why gold has lasted as a form of money.  This precious metal has all of the qualities required of money.  Yet if you compare gravel to gold, you will see that gravel also has most of these qualities, except rarity.  Gravel is so common the temptation would be to just pick it up on the road, rather than work for it.

Money must offer an incentive to work and apply discipline.  Rarity creates this incentive.

Reducing the quality of rarity creates inflation.  When a government reduces the rarity of its money, the action destroys the money’s value.

Because almost all money is issued and controlled by governments, its rarity is at risk, so money is only a temporary store of value… but it is not a solid asset.

Why didn’t we see inflation after the super stimulus  of money after the 2008 recession?  

There is always something we do not know.  This is my first golden rule of investing.  That rule was certainly proven when my expectations of inflation when the US dumped billions of support into the monetary system during the 2009 ‘quantitative easing’ but did not create inflation.

Was everything I thought I know about money wrong?

I don’t think so.  Inflation was avoided in part, I believe, due to a technology bump.  The growth in use of the cell phone, internet and sophisticated algorithms changed our ways of life and boosted productivity enough to create alternate demands that absorbed the extra money that governments had spread around.

In addition super hot stock markets absorbed a lot of the extra monetary supply as well.

ENR Asset Management CEO Eric Roseman looked at the potential for inflation.

ENR is one of the very few SEC registered investment advisors that can help US investors bank and hold assets with non US banks. (1)

Eric wrote:  “Central Bank printing and Government fiscal spending almost assure an inflationary episode.

Don’t Bet on Repeat of 2009-2019 Central Bank.

Outcome of Soaring Assets and Low Inflation.

No two economic outcomes are ever the same. Following the near collapse of the banking system in the fall of 2008 following the demise of Lehman Brothers, the subsequent combined unorthodox monetary stimulus and asset purchases (dubbed ‘quantitative easing’) by central banks eventually halted the destruction of credit and deflation that almost ruined the world economy.

Many shrewd investors, hard-money advocates and monetarists all warned of an impending inflationary boom as a result of the trillions of dollars minted by central banks post-2008 – myself included. It was inconceivable that inflation wouldn’t eventually rear its ugly head at some point because the Federal Reserve has ‘gone off the deep end’ printing bundles of cash along with the world’s other major central banks.

But it didn’t happen.

To this day, central banks in the G20 economies can’t grow inflation to meet their annual targets; in short, there’s an inflation deficit. This is currently the lowest cumulative ten-year inflation period since the 1930s (see second chart).

enr asset mgt

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is exploding, growing by about $3 trillion since mid-March and now totaling more than $7 trillion (see above chart).

It could conceivably exceed $10 trillion by year end, as the central bank buys corporate bonds, municipal securities and makes loans to medium-sized businesses while purchasing $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) each month. This would be more than double the peak that the Fed’s balance sheet reached after the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Since the start of 2020, the Fed’s balance-sheet has expanded by a massive $3 trillion to 33% of gross domestic product compared to 19% as of December 31, 2019.

According Tim Congdon at the Institute of International Monetary Research at the University of Buckingham in the United Kingdom, growth in the broadest measure of money supply has broken all modern peace times American records, up by 25.5% in the 12 months ending May 31.

According to hard-money advocate and editor of the widely acclaimed, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, Jim Grant claims ‘The record of the crises of the past 20 years, beginning with the post-millennium dotcom crash, is one of lower and lower interest rates, and of greater and more aggressive bond-buying.’

enr asset mgt

Indeed, global fiscal and monetary support has been nothing less than stunning.

Morgan Stanley notes that the central banks of the G4 countries – U.S., Japan, Europe and U.K. – will collectively expand their balance sheets by 28% of GDP over this cycle. The equivalent number during the 2008 financial crisis was 7%. And fiscal deficits are surging, too. Across the G4 and China, Morgan Stanley forecasts deficits will hit 17% of GDP in 2020.

Goldman Sachs, in another study, claims virus relief spending has resulted in global debt levels soaring to their highest since WW II to more than 150% of GDP.

The big difference compared to 2008, however, is that this isn’t a banking crisis; today, most of this stimulus is flowing to non-financial corporates and households. Checks are flowing to individuals to keep wage earners solvent or liquid enough to meet short-term debt and spending requirements.

The paragraph above is of utmost importance.   Think about it.  The stimulus of 2008-2009 was given to keep people working.  The current stimulus is to pay people not to work.  This may have a decisive role in the money versus supply balance and be a tipping point for inflation.

That’s happening in the United States, Canada, U.K. and the euro-zone.

Eric goes on to say: With central banks and governments poised to do whatever it takes to keep deflation from accelerating, investors are again wagering on a similar outcome that occurred following the 2008 credit collapse. If the Fed and other central banks are printing much more compared to a decade ago, then stocks and other risky assets have to rise in value.

It’s a guarantee. That’s the prevailing mindset.

Only this time, I think inflation will surprise everyone, including the Fed.

Eric ends the advisory by saying: “Stocks have been in the process of correcting since mid-June following a surge of Covid-19 cases across 31 states and in several nations, including India, Brazil and China. Though the risk of another countrywide lockdown is unlikely in the United States, investors should monitor outcomes as cases explode higher in Texas, Florida, Arizona, California, and other U.S. hotspots that might adversely affect consumption trends.

Regretfully the media is reporting that COVID-19 is again on the rise and Congress is looking at sending the economy more stimulus.

Investments in the stock market have traditionally been the best way to fight inflation.

Gary

Coronavirus and the Stock Market Round One is Done

Coronavirus and the stock market.  Round Two is coming.

This virus and the market faced off in the spring.  The market won.  As the chart below shows, after a huge March 2020 collapse, by early June, the DJIA was back to its December 2019 level.

stock chart

The market’s back up, but history suggests that we’ll see volatility in the ten years ahead.

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  The .dotcom bubble burst just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

The market then went nowhere from 2000 to 2014.   Finally it started reaching new high levels.

Such decades long sideways movement after a severe correction is nothing new in the stock market.

So everything’s in order… except the pandemic.  The ravages of the coronavirus dramatically increase the unknown and this uncertainty is the greatest purveyor  of weakness that a stock market can have.

How do we maximize the return on your savings and investments during this extremely dangerous time?

For the past four and a half years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain income and appreciation from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course to determine which markets offer the best value so we can be in a perfect position to take advantage of stock market corrections all over the world.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

You can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but during the pandemic to introduce you to this online course  I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy, diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

 

(1) http://enrassetmanagement.com/

 

Which Markets Will Perform Best


Here’s an important question concerning our future… “will the US stock market continue to outperform the rest of the world over the next ten years?”

No one has an answer to this question, but a comparison of developed country stock markets versus emerging country stock markets might help us have a better feel for what might happen.

More importantly this comparison can provide a path of action we can follow into the chaos we face.

The comparison has to do with subtle distortions in price and value in overseas stock markets.

buffett

Developed good value markets have been rising in value and currently sell at 1.08 times book. They offer an average dividend yield 3.27%.  Emerging good value markets have a price to book of 1.15 and pay an average dividend yield of 3.52%.

Developed 1.08 vs. Emerging 1.15 – Price-to-Book

Developed 3.27%    Emerging 3.52% Average – Dividend Yield

These differences are not great, but this flip flop is worth noting because traditionally emerging markets sell for a lower price-to-book but pay a far lower dividend than developed markets.

Why have these traditions reversed?

One reason for the developed versus emerging value flip could be that US indices have skyrocketed higher than other European and Asian markets since 2010. Thus US sares are sucking up a greater portion of the developed market sector investments.

The chart below shows the Dow Jones Industrial Index’s rise over the past decade versus the MSCI EAFE (EuropeAfricaFarEast).

charts

Since the US market is a poor value market and many developed European and Asian markets are good value markets, the overweighting of US shares creates an European-Asian value buildup as it keeps the price of European and Asian stock prices down in terms of comparison.

If this theory has any connection to reality, then every month, the top value developed markets have become a better deal.

When investing, I always look for contrasts, distortions and trends.

The surge of emerging market prices and rise in developed market values is a distortion.

Let’s look back since last year.

In November 2019 the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio we track in our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) was undervalued by 36% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index.

The Emerging Markets Equities were undervalued by 27% compared to the MSCI World Index .

By March 2020 the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio was undervalued by 40% and the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio was undervalued by 22% compared to the MSCI World Index.

By April the developed Markets were undervalued by 44% emerging markets by 20% compared with the MSCI World Index.

Now in June 2020 the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is undervalued by 43% Emerging Markets Equities undervalued by 27% compared to the MSCI World Index.

The June figures could be the beginning of a trend reversal that would help push good value developed market share prices up.

The timeline are too short and numbers too limited to prove any positive trend, but they suggest that we should watch these figures closely. If they are the beginning of a trend then value markets will outperform the US market and developed markets should outperform the most.

Gary

Coronavirus and the Stock Market Round One is Done

Coronavirus and the stock market.  Round Two is coming.

This virus and the market faced off in the spring.  The market won.  As the chart below shows, after a huge March 2020 collapse, by early June, the DJIA was back to its December 2019 level.

stock chart

The market’s back up, but history suggests that we’ll see volatility in the ten years ahead.

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  The .dotcom bubble burst just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

The market then went nowhere from 2000 to 2014.   Finally it started reaching new high levels.

Such decades long sideways movement after a severe correction is nothing new in the stock market.

So everything’s in order… except the pandemic.  The ravages of the coronavirus dramatically increase the unknown and this uncertainty is the greatest purveyor  of weakness that a stock market can have.

How do we maximize the return on your savings and investments during this extremely dangerous time?

For the past four and a half years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain income and appreciation from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course to determine which markets offer the best value so we can be in a perfect position to take advantage of stock market corrections all over the world.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

You can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but during the pandemic to introduce you to this online course  I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy, diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

 

Market’s Rising Danger


Last week the US stock market really rose.  The lure of this upward thrust is the danger.

On May 4, 2020 my article at this site said “Sideways motion kills the average investor, leading them to buy at the top, sell at the bottom, again and again.

Now can be a good time to invest, but for the long term.  Expect a lot of ups and downs along the way.  The recovery could be for the long haul so sticking to the best values will be key.

Keep in mind the dangers of this rapid recovery.  We can see the risk by looking at the chart below at macrotrends.net which shows the crashes and recoveries of Dow Jones Industrial Index for over 100 years.  Never has there been a straight up recovery after a collapse of the magnitude we have seen.

stock chart

 

It took almost 30 years for the US market to return to its previous high from the 1930s, 20 years from the 1960s and about five years from 2008 to 2013.  Recovery time appears to be getting shorter.  A full recovery in just a couple of months?  Such thinking spells danger!

harari

 

History suggests that if you invest in stocks today, you’ll profit in the long term, but  also suggests that in the short term we’ll see a lot of volatility.   The question is, “how long financially and emotionally can you hang on?”

The New York Times article “Don’t Lose the Thread. The Economy Is Experiencing an Epic Collapse of Demand” (1) supports the danger in the market recovery story.

The article says: A rip in the fabric of the economy won’t be healed easily, and denial of the severity of the crisis won’t solve it.

You can already sense in the public debate over the economy that people are starting to lose the thread — viewing the slight rebound from epic collapse as a sign that a crisis has been averted. That certainly is the kind of optimism evident in the stock market, which is now down a mere 1.1 percent for the year.

Despite it all — a nation on edge, with an untamed pandemic and convulsive protests over police brutality — for the first time in three months there is a scent of economic optimism in the air.

Employers added millions of jobs to their payrolls in May, and the jobless rate fell, a big surprise to forecasters who expected further losses. Businesses are reopening, and the rate of coronavirus deaths has edged down.

The fabric of the economy has been ripped, with damage done to millions of interconnections — between workers and employers, companies and their suppliers, borrowers and lenders. Both the historical evidence from severe economic crises and the data available today point to enormous delayed effects.

“There’s a lot of denial here, as there was in the 1930s,” said Eric Rauchway, a historian at the University of California, Davis, who has written extensively about the Great Depression. “At the beginning of the Depression, nobody wanted to admit that it was a crisis. The actions the government took were not adequate to the scope of the problem, yet they were very quick to say there had been a turnaround.”

The economy is a gigantic machine in which one person’s consumption spending generates someone else’s income. The pandemic began by crushing the economy’s productive capacity — a shock to the supply side of the economy, as many types of business activity were shut down for public health concerns.

In normal times, when there is a negative supply shock (say, a year of drought that reduces agricultural crops, or new tariffs that make imports more expensive), the pain can be intense for people in sectors directly affected, yet the economy as a whole adjusts.

But this crisis is so large and so sudden that the usual adjustment mechanisms aren’t working very well.

The people losing their jobs because of shutdowns cannot easily find new ones, because so much of the economy is shuttered at the same time.

Always ask yourself… “when will I have to liquidate?”

Stick to logic and mathematics. Do not trust stories and emotions.

The dangerous story now is “OMG, I am missing a massive bull market that’s on its way.  Everyone is getting into the market.  I don’t want to miss this”.

Our list management system says that 58% of our readers are age 65 or over and 14% age 55 to 64.  In others words there’s a 75% chance that you are thinking more about drawing on your portfolio than building.

Expect and plan for volatility in all equity markets.

Look for good value equity investments for the long term now, but base your investments on your liquidity needs and do not hurry.  Plenty of bargains will abound for quite some time.

The 46 markets we track, many of these markets are at their best prices in decades.

The key to maintaining discipline is to create a logical math based plan that fits your age and circumstances that allows you to hold on through a downturn.

Then stick to the plan!

Gary

I would like to help you learn an easy way to invest in the best value investment during this special time of opportunity.  See how to become an International Club member, save $598.23 and obtain a 130 page report on how to invest in good value shares now.

Coronavirus and the Stock Market Round One is Done

Coronavirus and the stock market.  Round Two is coming.

This virus and the market faced off in the spring.  The market won.  As the chart below shows, after a huge March 2020 collapse, by early June, the DJIA was back to its December 2019 level.

stock chart

The market’s back up, but history suggests that we’ll see volatility in the ten years ahead.

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  The .dotcom bubble burst just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

The market then went nowhere from 2000 to 2014.   Finally it started reaching new high levels.

Such decades long sideways movement after a severe correction is nothing new in the stock market.

So everything’s in order… except the pandemic.  The ravages of the coronavirus dramatically increase the unknown and this uncertainty is the greatest purveyor  of weakness that a stock market can have.

How do we maximize the return on your savings and investments during this extremely dangerous time?

For the past four and a half years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain income and appreciation from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course to determine which markets offer the best value so we can be in a perfect position to take advantage of stock market corrections all over the world.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

You can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but during the pandemic to introduce you to this online course  I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy, diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

 

(1)  nytimes.com/2020/06/06/upshot/coronavirus-economic-crisis.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_200607&instance_id=19160&nl=todaysheadlines&regi_id=48317279&segment_id=30285&user_id=208b2cbe62eb7b536babab791d172bc7

Why Gold Prices Will Soar


Gold is a poor value according to my reckoning.   See here why you should own it anyhow.

I create a lot of confusion about investing in gold because there are two reasons to buy gold and silver.  So sometimes I am saying, “do not speculate in the precious metals, but invest in some”.

The first reason to invest in gold is as a speculation.  At times when gold is priced so low that it’s good value, there can be special opportunities to profit in gold, silver and platinum.

The analysis in our Report “Silver Dip 2019” suggests that once gold’s price shoots much past $1,350, its not a good value for speculation.

The current chart of gold’s price at goldprice.org shows that gold surged past it’s good value point in early 2019 long before the pandemic and stock market correction.

silver

This graph suggests that gold is a poor value in its current price range around $1,700.

In other words we should not speculate in gold at this time, but there is a second reason to own gold and silver… as insurance.   Investments in precious metals are financial insurance, a store of value.

You should already have made this part of precious metals investments long ago.  If not, bite the bullet and invest in gold or silver or both now even though their price is no bargain.

The price of gold and silver may very well rise due to inflation created by the government’s wanton spending.

Eric Roseman CEO of ENR Asset Management (1) agrees.  In the May ENR Advisory Extra bulletin he wrote:

I’m also gravely concerned about skyrocketing U.S. and foreign deficits as central banks and governments alike print trillions to finance the deep recession and soaring unemployment. This is why I’m bullish on gold. U.S. deficits are heading to the Moon. I would argue that a default cycle is looming because of the sheer size of existing and upcoming debt issuance – both sovereign and corporate. The Fed can technically print into oblivion, unlike most other nations. Yet even the Fed can’t mint money forever before compromising the dollar and the Treasury market.

GOLD: The U.S. dollar will eventually go down. The post-2011 secular USD bull market is nearing an end, lacking any fundamental support as deficits blast higher, rates crash lower and the Fed prints much more money compared to 2008-2009. The United States government expects to borrow a record $4.5 trillion this fiscal year as it steps up spending to battle what is likely to be the deepest economic downturn since the Great Depression.

Gold is only 11% below its all-time high of $1,924 an ounce in 2011 but has room to shoot past this.

Eric believes the price will “blast through that $1,900 threshold over the next 12-18 months, if not sooner.”  His advice: all portfolios should have at least 5% to 10% in physical gold.

Eric agrees with me that the world economy has a chance to slowly transition away from a highly deflationary setting and move into a more inflationary environment, probably around the middle of the 2020s.

This is another support for a long term price rise.  The world will have to keep zero interest rates.  The huge debt that’s being accumulated is unsustainable, even at low or no interest, but rising interest costs would throw almost every government budget into a tailspin.

If interest rates cannot rise to offset inflation, commodities, real estate and equities will be the main asset sectors providing protection.  However real estate and equities are more subject to currency rises and falls.

There are likely to be competitive devaluations between countries trying to make their products more affordable as major economies battle against slow growth and increasing deflationary pressures.

“Gold as a quasi-monetary standard will likely be revalued higher relative to all fiat money.”

Gary

Coronavirus and the Stock Market Round One is Done

Coronavirus and the stock market.  Round Two is coming.

This virus and the market faced off in the spring.  The market won.  As the chart below shows, after a huge March 2020 collapse, by early June, the DJIA was back to its December 2019 level.

stock chart

The market’s back up, but history suggests that we’ll see volatility in the ten years ahead.

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  The .dotcom bubble burst just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

The market then went nowhere from 2000 to 2014.   Finally it started reaching new high levels.

Such decades long sideways movement after a severe correction is nothing new in the stock market.

So everything’s in order… except the pandemic.  The ravages of the coronavirus dramatically increase the unknown and this uncertainty is the greatest purveyor  of weakness that a stock market can have.

How do we maximize the return on your savings and investments during this extremely dangerous time?

For the past four and a half years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain income and appreciation from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course to determine which markets offer the best value so we can be in a perfect position to take advantage of stock market corrections all over the world.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

You can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but during the pandemic to introduce you to this online course  I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy, diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

 

(1) Get details about ENR portfolio performance from Thomas Fischer at thomas@enrasset.com

 

Have Two Sources of Income


We cannot be sure what equity investments will do so we need a second source of income to make sure we have time to complete our equity investing plan.

Recent messages at this site have warned about the dangers of sideways motion and showed how this type of action can last for many years, even decades.

An article in the New York Times “Warren Buffett’s Optimistic? Pessimistic? No, Realistic” (1) confirms these facts.

The article says about Buffett:  He was careful to say the markets would improve in the long term — though his time frame for certainty was decades, not months or not even necessarily years from now. About the current climate, he said, “You can bet on America, but you kind of have to be careful about how you bet.” He added “simply because markets can do anything.”

He talked about the possibility of a second wave of coronavirus infections. He acknowledged that the world might profoundly change for years to come. And he spent a notable portion of the meeting detailing the economy’s performance since 1789, with a particular focus on the years between 1929 and 1951, a period in which the stock market took 22 years to get back to its highs.

More than his words, he spoke with his wallet. He usually relishes a down stock market to take advantage of lower prices. Not this time. He hadn’t made any purchases recently; he didn’t buy up stocks when they had fallen last month during what felt like a mini-panic: “We have not done anything, because we don’t see anything that attractive to do.”

This time, he is husbanding his capital. “Our position will be to stay a Fort Knox,” he said.

“I don’t believe anyone knows what the market is going to do tomorrow, next week, next month, next year.”

This chart below can help us understand why Buffett focused on the 1929 to 1951 period.  It shows the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for over 100 years (since Feb.1919).  It’s interactive and I recommend looking it over.  Click here. Macroeconomics.net

chart

Let’s look at what happened to the Dow Jones Industrial Average at various points in each bear market over the past 100 years.

In July 1929 the DJIA rose to an all time high of 5,198.  Then it collapsed to 814 by June 1932.  The index did not regain that previous high number again until December 1958.

That full recovery took 29 years for investors who invested at the Dow’s all time high.

If an investor entered a Dow Jones Industrial Index ETF (for example only – they did not exist in that era) after the index had fallen 30% (it was then 3,648) in July 1930, it still took 24 years for the index to recover to 3,733 in November 1954, or about 24 years.

However if an investor invested in the index after it fell 40% to 3,119 in February 1931, he or she only waited a bit over five years to November 1936 when it reached 3,324.

However… and note the trend as it repeats in each recovery, after achieving a big recovery, the Dow dropped back and stayed below its all time high until August 1954.

Fast forward to the next bear that began in 1966. The DJIA reached a high of 7,884 in December 1966.

Investors who invested right at that top, did not see a recovery until August 1995 when the Dow reached 7,801, in about 30 years.

Investors who entered the market 30% below the 1965 high (5,519 in Sept 1969) saw it recover by March 1973 but then slipped until June 1987 and then immediately slipped again to September 1991.  The full convincing recovery took about 26 years.

Investors however who waited until the DJIA fell 40% to 4,731 in December 1973 saw a recovery in January 1987, but again the index immediately slipped and did not reach that level again until August 1988, about 15 years.

In other words it took a full 15 years for a full convincing recovery.

The next DJIA high came in December 1999 at 17,671.

When this bear began, the index reached a 30% loss (12,370) by August 2002.

Those who jumped in then saw a quick recovery by June 2003.

The DJIA then rose into the 17,000 again, but fell quickly yet an the 30% loss range was not reached again until October 2010.

Those waited for a 40% (10,603) fall missed the recovery completely. The Dow’s lowest point was 11,220 before it began the bull that just ended and rose to 28,738

If the DJIA falls 30% from this latest all time high it will reach 20,107.

A 35% drop will bring the index to 18,680. A 40% drop will bring it to 17,243.

This review provides three clues.

It suggests that the time from an all time high to the next can take decades, but the periods between them are becoming shorter.

There are also suggestions that investments in the Dow at 30% below the top have a mini crash after their first recovery.

In the 2008 bear and bull waves, the Dow Jones Industrial Average never reached a 40% drop.

Investors who want to time markets and get in right at the bottom, might have a pretty good wait if history repeats.  Those who increase their portfolios after a 30% drop can also have a considerable wait as well, but if they put off much longer they’ll miss some of the rebound.

These facts and the uncertainty of what’s ahead means we should have more than one way to gain profit.

This is why we created the International Club over 30 years ago, to help club members earn income from an at home business plus protect their savings and increase its value with value equity investing.

When you join the club you get seven workshops and courses on how to earn everywhere with home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn income from your home and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • The course “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Self Publish”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”
  • The course “International Business Made EZ”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”

The fee for this package is normally $299.

As a club member you get these seven courses FREE.

Club members also receive a second way to profit, the $299 Purposeful Investing Course (PI) FREE.

The Purposeful Investing Course is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.

The course teaches how to form  a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The course teaches an analysis that is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investments create a diversified portfolio of good value indices in the best value stock markets around the world.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $299.

When you join the International Club you receive both courses, plus much more:

#1: The seven part $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program including our Self Publishing Course”.  Free.

#2: The $299 Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”.  Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2019”.  Free

#5: Three Natural Health Reports at $19.99.   All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report.  Free.

#7: Plus updates and other report I release in the year ahead.

These reports, courses and programs would cost $767.73 if purchased individually.

The International Club membership is $349 so the 2020 membership normally saves $418.78.

However due to the COVID-19 Pandemic we have cut membership in half and are currently accepting the discounted membership of $174.50 today.  You save $598.23 instead!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your membership at just $99 a year rather than $349.  Your membership will be auto renewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel membership at any time.

Save $598.23.  Join the International Club for just $174.5o.   Receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons through the rest of 2020 and into of 2021  at no additional fee.

Don’t miss this opportunity.  Sign up with this special offer.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $174.50

Gary

(1) www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/business/dealbook/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_200504&instance_id=18184&nl=todaysheadlines&regi_id=48317279&segment_id=26549&user_id=208b2cbe62eb7b536babab791d172bc7

Investment Sea Change


Sideways motion kills the average investor, leading them to buy at the top, sell at the bottom, again and again.   The greatest protection is value.

Now can be a good time to invest, but for the long term.  Expect a lot of ups and downs along the way.  The recovery could be for the long haul so sticking to the best values will be key.

We can see what I mean from looking at the chart below at macrotrends.net which shows the S&P 500 Index at its bottom of the 2008 crash.

charts

The S&P 500 took about five years from 2008 to 2013 to return to its previous high.

Even after the first big drop from over 15,000 down into the 12,000 range in September, 2008, the S&P did not reach the 12,000 range again until January of 2011.  Prices rose and fell, rose and fell.

We are seeing this pattern again. March was one of the worst months for the US market ever.  April was one of the best ever.  Then the market began to slide away again in May.

Expect volatility in all equity markets, but of the 46 markets we track, many of these markets are at their best prices in decades.

Last week we sent our Purposeful Investing Course subscribers the 52 page Keppler Asset Management Quarterly Emerging-Markets Analysis for this spring and included this chart.

keppler

The price-to-book of the Top Value Emerging Markets Index is just 1.07 and the average dividend yield 4.79%.

The price-to-book of the top value developed markets is even lower, 1.00 with a higher dividend yield of 5.23%.

These are historic low prices that suggest extreme good value for investors who can steadily accumulate through market volatility that may last for several years.

How much the pandemic and its interference in the global economy will change markets is still unknown.

How much volatility we will see in the next year or two is also unknown, but what we do know is that top value the top value  stock markets globally now offer incredible value.  Keppler Asset Management’s value analysis projects that a $10,000 investment portfolio, equally weighted, in top value equity markets (based on his analysis) will be worth between $13,394 and $20,462 in four years.

Look for good value equity investments for the long term now, but base your investments on your liquidity needs and do not hurry.  Plenty of bargains will abound for quite some time.

I cut my investing teeth on bear markets, when I started investing, writing and talking about stock investments in May 1968.  At that time the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 6721.

The Dow dropped to 2158 by June 1982, so I learned about the dark side of the market from the get-go.

I was right there in December 1999 as well when the DJIA was 17625 and dropped to 9229 over the next ten years till January 2009.

Then it began this last meteoric rise up through December 2019 and hit 28262. Now in just three months it has fallen to 23,700 range as of yesterday.

In the chart below, I have marked the high and low points I have lived through in the historical chart below to show that we could expect a low of 15,000.  This means that a correction could have plenty of room to go.

This is not a prediction… just a possibility we should plan for.   Always ask yourself… “when will I have to liquidate?”

If your liquidity needs are near term, you do not want to liquidate when the Dow is at 15,000!

Screen Shot 2020-03-10 at 7.00.14 AM

The key to maintaining discipline is to create a logical math based plan to be able to hold on through a downturn.  Then stick to the plan!

Gary

I would like to help you learn an easy way to invest in the best value investment during this special time of opportunity.  See how to become an International Club member, save $598.23 and obtain a 130 page report on how to invest in good value shares now.

Coronavirus and the Stock Market Round One is Done

Coronavirus and the stock market.  Round Two is coming.

This virus and the market faced off in the spring.  The market won.  As the chart below shows, after a huge March 2020 collapse, by early June, the DJIA was back to its December 2019 level.

stock chart

The market’s back up, but history suggests that we’ll see volatility in the ten years ahead.

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  The .dotcom bubble burst just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

The market then went nowhere from 2000 to 2014.   Finally it started reaching new high levels.

Such decades long sideways movement after a severe correction is nothing new in the stock market.

So everything’s in order… except the pandemic.  The ravages of the coronavirus dramatically increase the unknown and this uncertainty is the greatest purveyor  of weakness that a stock market can have.

How do we maximize the return on your savings and investments during this extremely dangerous time?

For the past four and a half years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain income and appreciation from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course to determine which markets offer the best value so we can be in a perfect position to take advantage of stock market corrections all over the world.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

You can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but during the pandemic to introduce you to this online course  I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy, diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary