Tag Archive | "Value investing"

How to Make a Stock Market Fortune in 2021


Do you have what it takes to cash in on Wall Street?

Many will say you (be careful) do.

And you do (but maybe not how you think) as I’ll explain in a moment.

But first, consider this?

Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal article “James Simons Steps Down as Chairman of Renaissance Technologies” (1) tells the story of why today, a majority of trading on Wall Street comes from quantitative and other “nonfundamental” stock traders, that use computer driven predictive algorithms to make investments.

The article says: James Simons, who helped lead a quantitative revolution that has swept the world of finance, is stepping back from his hedge fund on the heels of a terrible year for clients, but a terrific one for the firm’s employees.

Mr. Simons, among the largest financial backers of Democractic candidates in recent years, told investors he was retiring as chairman of Renaissance Technologies LLC’s board of directors as of Jan. 1.

A former math professor and code breaker, Mr. Simons built Renaissance into one of the most successful investment firms in history by helping develop a new way to invest.

In the 1980s and 1990s, when most of the investing world was reading annual reports, chatting with executives and relying on intuition, Mr. Simons decided to let computers make his trading moves. He and his colleagues—all from the worlds of math and science—built predictive models capable of uncovering unrecognized market patterns, partly using early versions of machine learning.

Eventually, Mr. Simons built a fortune of more than $25 billion.

So do we have what it takes to clean up on Wall Street? 

Can we build predictive models capable of uncovering unrecognized market patterns, partly using early versions of machine learning?  Plus can we implement these codes with super powerful, ultra fast equipment based in high rent districts near where stock market computers process trades?

Because that’s what it takes to cash in on shares.

Jyske-bank

I know I can’t.  Many years ago, when I worked with Jyske Bank (one of the largest currency, stock and commodity traders in the world) I had meetings in their trading hall.  I met with their top traders and the people who created their algorithms and IT experts who ran their equipment.

They had this huge staff of really bright people, many millions of dollars of equipment and they were set up to trade 24 hours a day.

Jyske-bank

Photo I took of Jyske’s trading hall

I had been investing the old way for decades, starting in Hong Kong in the 1960s.  “What in the world am I doing trying to compete with these guys”, I thought.

So I stopped trading with the realization I still had to be invested in shares.

Many will tell you they have the algorithms and will sell them to you.  Be careful of those promises.  Chances are those codes don’t really work.   Even if they did work, do you have the fast (and I mean really fast) equipment and 24 hour a day ability to execute orders?

My answer was certainly no, so I looked for another way to have an easy, low cost process of gaining maximum profit and safety with investments in equities.

I found a solution and put it to work five years ago we I began the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi). 

I had for years followed the global stock market analysis of Keppler Asset Management, (KAM) the best value analyst I have ever found.   In October 2015, I  conducted a seminar that featured  Michael Keppler the founder of KAM as a speaker explaining how his analysis works.  I have included a link to that speech at the end of this review.

Then mid December 2015 to start our analysis of the portfolio (Pifolio) we would create investing in country ETFs of Keppler Top Value countries, we invested $80,000 that we could track and report on to our subscribers so they saw the real deal, the genuine results  as they unfolded.

The goal was to make the process utterly simple, excessively inexpensive and safe in the long term.

Here are the results of that Pifolio after five years.

ETF                                                  Invested   Now    Gain    %

Global X FDS GLBX MSCI NORW  $6242    $8103   1861   29.3%
iShares MSCI ETF Brazil                   2597      3883   1286   45.8%
iShares MSCI ETF Chile                    2613      3151     538   20.5%
iShares MSCI ETF Colombia             2613      3274     661   25.2%
iShares MSCI ETF France                 6183       8307   2124   34.3%
iShares MSCI ETF Germany              6175      7637   1462    23.6%
iShares MSCI ETF Hong Kong          6174      7842   1668     27.0%
iShares MSCI ETF Mexico                 5488      5996     508     09.2%
iShares MSCI ETF Spain                   2989      3880      891    29.8%
iShares MSCI ETF Sth Korea            2559      4618     2059   80.4%
iShares MSCI ETF Australia              3196      4047       851   26.6%
iShares MSCI ETF Canada               7965       9857    1892    23.7%
iShares MSCI ETF Italy                     6175       7382    1207    19.5%
iShares MSCI ETF Japan                  6203       8106    1903    30.6%
iShares MSCI ETFMalaysia                 563         375    -188   -37.4%
iShares MSCI ETF Singapore            6189       7117     928    14.9%
iShares MSCI ETF Taiwan                 2596       4501    1905    73.3%
iShares MSCI ETF UK                       6201       6470      269      4.3%
iShares MSCI ETF China                  4066        5121    1055    25.9%

The $80,000 invested is now worth $109,667, a gain of $29,667 or a 37.08% gain over five years.  This works out at a 7.41% per annum gain before dividends which WERE NOT reinvested.

I failed to keep an accurate track of dividends received, but they have been running in the region of 2% to 3% per annum so the annual return over the past five years have been around 9.4% to 10.4%.

Though this is not as dramatic an increase as we have seen in some US market indices, I’m happy with the results because the Pifolio is based on the reality that value controls market prices in the long term.

If that return were randomly distributed, it would be hard for most investors to lose over the long term.  The reason so few win and so many lose is because stock price increases and drops are not randomly distributed.  There are long time-periods in which valuations steadily rise (with small drops mixed in).  There are also periods of sharp corrections.  During these times, when markets may be volatile, investors tend to panic and liquidate at the worst possible time.

The Pifolio over the past five years has been as steady as can be in such turbulent times, was incredibly diversified for safety and provided decent returns while locking in extra value potential.

Why the Top Value Portfolio has extra potential now.

There are three factors that give extra potential to the Pifolio now.

#1: The U.S. dollar has been in decline.  This is usually bullish for global risk assets and every investment in the Pifolio is currently in non USA markets.

#2: Value stocks have under performed their growth counterparts for 13 consecutive years.  Mean-reversion (value investments now over performing) is probable well into 2021 given the accelerating under performance since last December.

#3: Global major and emerging markets are drowning in net fund flows in late 2020. According to Bank of America, a record $89 billion flowed into stock funds over three weeks up to November 20, 2020.

These three factors could cause the Top Value Pifolio to rise dramatically in 2021.

We should not count on extra ordinary returns. We need to be realistic… but logic and math are on our side.

Most humans are not realistic!  Humans have a bias against risk that creates a performance gap.

We created Pi to face this fact and prepare for it.

The Pifolio above invests in 19 country ETFs.  These ETFs represent investments in hundreds of shares in the Top Value Markets.  There are few ways to gain greater safety though diversification. 

No one knows when the super heated US stock market, that is now at or near an all time high,  will slow.

What we do know is the value of the US market is low, compared to its history and to other stock markets around the world.

The table below shows how the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to three alternatives at the end of December 2020 based on selected valuation and return measures:

keppler

According to Keppler Asset Management’s analyses, the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is now undervalued by 39% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index, by 51% compared to the MSCI USA Index and by a whopping 68% compared to the MSCI World Growth Index.

The average developed market—as measured by the KAM Equally Weighted World Index—is undervalued by 29% compared to the cap. weighted MSCI World Index.

This next table below shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to three alternatives as of the end of December 2020 based on selected valuation and return measures:

keppler

According to Keppler’s analyses, the asset class Emerging Markets Equities is now undervalued by 21% compared to the MSCI World Index of the developed markets. Moreover, the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfoliois undervalued by 23% compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets (Standard) Index,by 39%compared to the MSCI World Index and by a whopping 57% compared to the MSCI EM Growth Index.

These numbers suggest that value shares will outperform Wall Street or at least US shares will under perform global shares at some time in the years ahead.

We just do not know when the shift will equalize values.

We can still see profits and growth in US shares and we will… until we won’t.

All stock markets have risk and volatility, but if you invest in the top value markets  you get the best value and creating and managing such a portfolio is easy.

This five year review shows that the Pifolio has seen steady growth and good income.

The review shows that the Pifolio has been safe.

Perhaps the biggest benefit has been the ease.  There have been no advantages to viewing this portfolio daily or even weekly.   A monthly checkup has been more than enough to keep the portfolio balanced.  There have been only a handful of changes in the Top Value market over the past five years.  This strategy of easy, long term investing stops us from getting daily jitters and most important, frees up time so we can enjoy life.

The three benefits of the Pifolio are; safety, maximum profit potential and more time to live.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 53rd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full, no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2022 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

Here is a reminder why Pi makes so much sense for us as investors. This core Pi information was presented by Michael Keppler at a value investing seminar in October 2015.

There are two documents as well as Keppler’s talk.   The first was a reprinted article of an interview with Michael in which he explained why most investors misunderstand risk.

Keppler asset management

Click here to read  Keppler’s Interview “A New Definition of Risk”

Keppler also delivered this 22 page PDF report at his speech in 2015.

Keppler asset management

Click here to read or download and print “Keppler’s 22 page “Top Value Strategy”

Keppler Video

Here is Michael Keppler’s one hour 40 minute presentation on Top Value Asset Allocation.

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com:  James Simons steps down as chairman of Renaissance Technologies

Borders Blur Opportunity


Border blindness can stop us from seeing opportunity.

border guard

Borders can be unfriendly places. Don’t let that stop you,  because we are one and there is value in the unity.

Imagine the ocean… that’s everything.  See the waves,  Those are the earth, the mountains, the valleys and plains… but they are still the ocean.  Then see the spray and the little droplets kicked up by the wind and rain.  That’s us the people, you, them and me and the other species… but we are still the ocean… all connected in this vast limitless body of water.

Sometimes though we forget the connection.

That loss of memory can be damaging.  Look what happens when part of the ocean is cut off from the whole.  It becomes nothing more than a puddle.  If not fed by a river or other source beyond the pond’s borders, it dries up, shrinks and evaporates into nothingness.

And so to do people, counties, states, provinces, countries, any group that disconnects.   They shrivel into an incestuous stagnation, dry and bereft of  vibrancy and growth.

Yet it’s too easy is it to classify people or a person by some fictional story.  Americans are this… or the British are that… or Saudis are whatever?

What is your nationality?  Do you agree with your government and the way things are in your country… or do you sometimes feel frustrated at how the nation where you were born or live has turned out?  Ever feel trapped in a country gone mad?

The majority, or at least a strong minority  of people in most countries feel exactly the same way.  They are this or that… but don’t agree with a lot of what is going on in their nation.

We are all connected individuals.

Viewing others, people or nations in too general way can lead to errors of judgement that can be expensive.

My first book published in the 1970s “Passport to International Profit” threw out this idea of Border Blindness.

It said:  Borders are transcended by almost all human emotions. Get a pretty Italian and handsome Irishman together and they will fall in love. Put a Mexican with a cheaper tomato next to a hungry Canadian and the Canadian will get out his loonies and buy the tomato. Put an Englishman and Frenchman in a sinking ship and they will both bail water.

The market place of humanity tramples borders. The deepest nature of our existence supports free trade and free movement of all to anywhere in the world.

Modern communications and transportation have made globalization so easy and brought us the wonder of multi cultural joys,  This is really good but this evolution also threatens the sovereignty of nations and they react by stiffening the borders.

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ecuador-roses

Red roses at our house

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To order, click on the Ecuador USA Rose website (The home of “The Rose Guy) here.

Expect stiffer borders.

The disruptive evolution we are seeing is enough to cause those who do not keep up to react.  The pandemic adds to the bolstered border fuel.

Social technology inflames the existing problem as it has not yet sorted out its editing and accuracy issues.

We live in a perfect world but we often cannot see that perfection and this leads to anger, jealousy, greed, all the human emotions that stifle the benefits of globalization.

The innovations that help humanity expand also help the forces that dry us up.  Thus we have excessive surveillance, loss of privacy and increased hassles at border crossings.

Our son has his family isolated in a country village in the Czech Republic.  He had to take a short trip back to the UK and was caught out when the new strain of virus caused the shut down all flights from the UK back to the CR.  This is a shot of the paper work he had to complete just to drive back and cross three borders.

borders

Starting at the Chunnel

borders

Under the English Channel

borders

A long night on French autoroutes and German Autobahnen.

borders

Finally in the Czech Republic

borders

All that work because the simple technology (aka an airplane) has been closed to borders.

What to do?

When most of society is headed in the wrong direction, we can profit by recognizing the error and moving the opposite direction.

First, don’t let borders overly flavor what you feel about each and every person you meet.  There are positive and negative terminals everywhere and in every thing.  Borders simply amplify both.  There are not really Canadians, Mexican, British or whatever.  Those tags are a story.

Yes they are unique human beings, trapped in a nationality they may or may not like.  The story that defines (or confines) may have an effect on how they act.  That’s fine to know, but understand that they are all part of the ocean and they have something to offer.  They also  respond to love, care and respect.

I work every day not to blind myself to that fact.

Be global!

Currently the Top Value Portfolio of country ETFs I invest in, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom (at equal weights) is selling for 1.42 times book value compared to the US market selling at 4.39 times book.  That portfolio also pays a 2.94% dividend compared to the US average of 1.45%.

keppler

According to the analyses of Keppler Asset Management, that developed markets top value portfolio is now undervalued by 39% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index, by 51% compared to the MSCI USA Index and by a whopping 68% compared to the MSCI World Growth Index.

I do not let borders determine my investments, but look insetad to value.

Look beyond the fiction of borders and you’ll find opportunity greater than before.

Gary

Profitable Investing Made EZ

There are only three steps to sustained, safe profits in investing.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value professional investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make professional investing EZ because you become smarter than the smartest man in the world.

newton

Sir Issac Newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market. 

Newton said: “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.”

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence in seeking value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why my Purposeful investing course (Pi) is based around mathematicians not economists.

I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline in our Pi course.

Use math and time, not emotion and timing to protect your wealth.

We need a strategy so our savings, investments & income are sufficient for a full lifetime which can be much longer than statistics suggest.  That’s really good to know but longer life expectancy is expected to worsen the shortfall in Social Security by 11 percent over the next 75 years.

What will a longer, active life do to our savings and budgets?

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed that some people, such as Warren Buffett, have a three point good value strategy that increases their wealth again and again.

What are the three tactics of this strategy?

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

A research paper that studied Warren Buffet’s investing strategy was published at Yale University’s website. This research shows that the stocks he chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power so you can let time do its work.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffet strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third, limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses value, time and leverage to buy and hold “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He uses limited leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

You can learn how to use this type of three point strategy with the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  This course is based on my 50 years of global investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Pi Model Portfolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it is based entirely on good math and uses time to take advantage of value.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Listen to Michael Keppler explain his philosophy for 6 minutes and 43 seconds here.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2020.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the online Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio update lessons throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $99 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Best Value Emerging Market


What do we do when stock markets seem too  high, but there is nowhere else to invest?

One answer is to aggressively seek good value markets. Last week  a message “Best Value  Stock Market” showed why Austria is the best value developed stock market in the world.

How about  emerging markets?

One benefit of our Purposeful Investing Course subscription are updates of the Keppler Asset Management’s Good Value Emerging Country Selection Strategies.  

Here is the update for the December 2020 emerging markets selections.

Emerging market equities often have high performance and had their highest monthly returns since July this year.

On average, i.e. equally weighted, emerging markets had their highest monthly return—plus 12.7 %—since December 1993, when they returned 18.7%.

Year-to-date, the MSCI Emerging Market  (EM) Index is up 10.2% in US dollars and 3.4% in euros.

All twenty-six markets included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced in November 2020.

Greece was up (+27.3%), Poland and Thailand were both up 21.2%) for the month.

Year-to-date,  China  is up +24.8 %, Taiwan +21.3% and Korea 18.7%.

The Top Value emerging markets are Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Korea,Malaysia, Mexico, Russia and Taiwan.

According to the analyses, of Keppler Asset Management,  an equally weighted combination of these most attractively valued markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

Screen Shot 2020-12-12 at 9.32.56 AM

Screen Shot 2020-12-12 at 9.40.34 AM

The best value markets on  a price-to-book basis are Pakistan (0.78), Turkey  (0.93), Russia (0.97) and Columbia (1.04).

Pakistan and Turkey however are not top value markets according to the Keppler’s analysis above.

Also due to due to liquidity issues and geopolitical risks, Keppler assigns lower than equal weights to smaller markets in the portfolios they advise.

Personally, due to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership that links 15 Asian and Pacific countries, I  like Korea. China is the central partner with 14 other countries across the Asia Pacific region in a huge free trade deal nearly a decade in the making.    The  agreement connects 15 countries and 2.2 billion people, or nearly 30% of the world’s population

Yet the Korean MSCI, still has a very low price-to-book of 1.18.

One easy way to invest in the Korean market is with the iShares MSCI Korean ETF (symbol EWY.  The chart below from www.finance.yahoo.com shows the 5 year performance of this fund.

www.fiancne.yahoo.com

We seem to  be in  an  era where many of the reliable relationship that rule the pricing in stock markets are not  reliable.   One way to  survive this dilemma as investors is to look  for value and  economic shifts such as we see in  the Korean market.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

A model portfolio that dates back to 1969 has dramatically outperformed almost every stock market in the world.

keppler

A hundred US dollars invested in that portfolio in 1969 is now worth $44833 compared to $100 invested in an equity weighted world index being worth $11,548.

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2020.   There have been no changes since.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: China, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Germany (symbol EWG) is a Country Index ETF  that tracks the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index. The fund is at all times invested at least 80% of its assets in the securities of its underlying index that primarily consists of all the large-and mid-capitalization companies traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market in our Pifolio.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing. Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades. This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

keppler

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Save $102 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years,  right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $99 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

Best Paying Developed Stock Market


How do we invest when every experience tells us that stock markets are upside down?

One answer is to aggressively seek good value markets. Yesterday’s  message “Best Value  Stock Market” showed why Austria is the best value developed stock market in the world.

Another way to invest in hyper markets is to  seek the best paying stock markets.

Screen Shot 2020-12-12 at 9.40.00 AM

Screen Shot 2020-12-12 at 9.32.15 AM

The best paying stock market in the world is Portugal with an average dividend of  4.53%.   However this market has been known for its volatility.

The chart below from the MSCI website shows that in the last 15 years it has dramatically underperformed world markets and that it has only overperformed world markets three times in that decade and a half.

Plus the Portuguese market is not a good value market as it is selling at a high 2.2 price-to-book and outrageous 50.7 PE ratio.

The good value Singapore market  looks better.

The Singapore market pays over a 4% average dividend (4.10%) and is the second best value of all developed markets based on price-to-book and PE ratios.

Go with Singapore for high income (where else can you get 4% on your money)  and a good change of capital appreciation.

msci

The chart above shows the easy-to-buy iShares MSCI Singapore ETF (symbol EWS).

Singapore has good economic news that impacts a third of the World’s population  as well.

Singapore belongs to the  15 country Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. China is the central partner with 14 other countries across the Asia Pacific region in a huge free trade deal nearly a decade in the making.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership spans 15 countries and 2.2 billion people, or nearly 30% of the world’s population, according to a joint statement released by the nations on Sunday, when the deal was signed. Their combined GDP totals roughly $26 trillion and they account for nearly 28% of global trade based on 2019 data.

The deal includes several of the region’s heaviest economic hitters aside from China, including Japan and South Korea. New Zealand and Australia are also partners, as are Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam in Southeast Asia.

 

The 15 countries are:
Australia
Brunei
Cambodia
China
Indonesia
Japan
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
New Zealand
Philippines
Singapore
South Korea
Thailand
Vietnam

In topsy turvy times… when uncertainty is great, relentless searches for value and high income are  two of the easiest and most effective tools for protecting wealth and savings.

Both searches lead us to  Singapore at this time.

Gary

Add Safety, Profit & Get Paid Double

The next four years will be a period of high overseas stock growth.

The chart below shows the last 26 years of real-time forecasting by the global equity analyst we track to make our portfolio decisions.

The analyst is Keppler Asset Management and the index they create The KAM Equally Weighted World Index is 15.4% below the value that the analyst forecast four years ago in September 2016.

The chart shows how in the past, two and a half decades there have been four opportunities (red Xs) when the entry levels in global markets were below or around the lower valuation band.  In the previous three low points like this, there has always been the highest growth and positive returns three to five years later.

keppler

 

So it’s good to know that if you invest in global stock markets overall, now, you’ll make capital gains over the next four or five years.

More importantly you get paid more income now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not in 2020.

This year equities have been paying a higher yield than bonds.

As of November 2020, according to Ycharts.com, (1)  AA bond yields are at 1.59%.

ycharts.com

 

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.68% as of November 2020 .  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.59% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact US shares pay one of the lousiest average yields of the 46 stock markets we, via Keppler, monitor around the world.

Eight solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay more than double the average US yield.  They pay  3.57% compared to the US yield of 1.68%.

keppler

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years.

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only five times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course uses Keppler analytics to track 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Pi teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for most stock markets around the world.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of higher performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) Ycharts.com corporate bond yields

Asian Stock Breakaway


Look to Asia for profit.

Asian stocks are outperforming US stocks by the biggest margin in ten years.

That’s relevant because the S&P 500 Index has blown away every region over the past decade with a 13.74% annualized return compared to just 1.01% per annum for the MSCI EAFE  (Europe, Asia, Far East) Index (ex.USA), 2.35% annually for MSCI Pacific and a lowly 0.31% per year for MSCI Europe Index.

pixabay.com

Asian shares are rising

It worth noting that three of the eight Keppler Top Value Developed Markets that we track in  our Purposeful Investing (Pi) Course are in Asia; Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan.

keppler

Four of the ten Keppler Top Value Emerging Markets are also in Asia; China, Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

keppler

Due to the size of China’s economy, I treat China as a developed market in my 70% (developed) 30% (emerging) market weighting and that over weighting has added a boost in my portfolio.

When planning your global diversification of assets abroad for the next four years, first and foremost think value…  then add emphasis to finding good value investments in Asia.

Gary

Add Safety, Profit & Get Paid Double

The next four years will be a period of high overseas stock growth.

The chart below shows the last 26 years of real-time forecasting by the global equity analyst we track to make our portfolio decisions.

The analyst is Keppler Asset Management and the index they create The KAM Equally Weighted World Index is 15.4% below the value that the analyst forecast four years ago in September 2016.

The chart shows how in the past, two and a half decades there have been four opportunities (red Xs) when the entry levels in global markets were below or around the lower valuation band.  In the previous three low points like this, there has always been the highest growth and positive returns three to five years later.

keppler

 

So it’s good to know that if you invest in global stock markets overall, now, you’ll make capital gains over the next four or five years.

More importantly you get paid more income now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not in 2020.

This year equities have been paying a higher yield than bonds.

As of November 2020, according to Ycharts.com, (1)  AA bond yields are at 1.59%.

ycharts.com

 

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.68% as of November 2020 .  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.59% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact US shares pay one of the lousiest average yields of the 46 stock markets we, via Keppler, monitor around the world.

Eight solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay more than double the average US yield.  They pay  3.57% compared to the US yield of 1.68%.

keppler

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years.

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only five times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course uses Keppler analytics to track 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Pi teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for most stock markets around the world.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of higher performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) Ycharts.com corporate bond yields

 

How Election Results Impact Stock Markets


What will the election results mean to the stock market?

If history is an accurate guide, “Not Much” is the answer to this question.

Last week we sent our Purposeful Investing (Pi) course subscribers, the November 2020 ENR Asset Management Market Outlook (1).   One key feature was some positive thoughts relating to the outcome of US election.

This issue of the Outlook says:   For investors worried about how the stock market will fare in the event of a divided government, history shows equities tend to rise regardless of which party controls government.

From 1929 through 2019, one party controlled both chambers of Congress and the presidency in 45 of those years.

The S&P 500 Index on average rose 7.45% during those years, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The index was up 30 times and down 15 times.

In the other 46 years when there was a split government, the index climbed 7.26% on average, rising 29 times, falling 16 times and remaining unchanged once;

According to Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, stocks have performed better under Democrats.

Since 1900, $10,000 invested in the Dow Jones Industrial Average only when Republicans were President would have grown to about $100,000 (4% annualized). The same $10,000 would have grown to nearly $430,000 if it were invested only when Democrats were President (6.1% annualized return).

The Outlook also upgraded Asia and emerging markets to BUY in November because Asian stocks are outperforming the United States by the most in ten years, according to Bloomberg and Rosenberg Research.

pixabay.com

Asia, where markets may be rising more

With the US stock markets exhibiting extreme volatility, we need international alternatives to balance our portfolios.

Once a quarter we send out Purposeful investing subscribers (Pi) a 52 page report prepared by Keppler Asset Management that looks at the value and performance of every emerging stock market in the world.  Here are short excerpts of the emerging markets report for the autumn of 2020.

 The report shows the values of the ten best value emerging markets.

keppler

We can compare these values to the high cost of the US and other overpriced markets.

keppler

Investing in a spread of the top value emerging markets at a price-to-book of 1.31 paid an average dividend of 3.78% compared to 1.63% from US markets.   Pus the price-to-book for  US shares is 3.96 more that three times higher than the average price-to-book for the top value emerging markets.

Plus investors who ignored overseas markets lost out!

Through September 2020, the US market was up  6.8%. The Taiwan market was up +14%, India +12.3.1%, China +12.0%,

After suffering one of their worst quarterly returns for the last thirty years in the first three months of this year, emerging markets equities recovered strongly.

Following double-digit returns in the second quarter, the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index (ND) climbed another  9.6% in US dollars.

Year-to-date, however, the MSCI EM TR Index is, in US dollars down 1.2% in the first nine months.

Among the three regional indices, Asia advanced 10.6%, while Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) gained 2.5% and Latin America was down 0.9%.

Year-to-date, Asia fared best, gaining 8.0% thanks to the good performance of China, while EMEA fell 10.5% and Latin America declined 17.4%.

Thirteen markets advanced last quarter, and also thirteen markets were down. Taiwan (+14%), India (+12.3.1%) and China (+12.0%) had the highest total returns last quarter, while Thailand (-11.9%), Hungary (-10.6%) and the Czech Republic (-8.6%) performed worst.

Year-to-date, however, only three out of the twenty-six markets included in the MSCI EM Index recorded a positive return.

The Top Value Model Portfolio gained 3.0% in US dollars last quarter.

There were no changes in Keppler’s country ratings last quarter. The Top Value Model Portfolio continues to hold ten markets—Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia and Taiwan—at equal weights.

According to Keppler’s analyses, an equally weighted combination of these most attractively valued markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.The table below shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to selected indices as of the end of September, based on important variables (current numbers for book value, 12-months trailing numbers for the other variables—no forecasts).

keppler

According to Keppler’s analyses, the asset class Emerging Markets Equities is now undervalued by 24% compared with the MSCI World Index of the developed markets.

Moreover, the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is undervalued by 28% compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets (Standard) Index, by 45% versus the MSCI World Index and by a whopping 61% compared to the MSCI EM Growth Index.

Therefore, the outlook for superior performance of emerging markets equities in general and the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio in particular, over the next three to five years, remains very favorable.

Note: Due to liquidity issues and geopolitical risks, Keppler assigns lower than equal weights to smaller markets in the portfolios they advise.

We live in a global economy and to keep our investments balanced with the world, we should keep a continual watch on value in all stock markets and look for international as well as local equity opportunity.

Gary

Add Safety, Profit & Get Paid Double

The next four years will be a period of high overseas stock growth.

The chart below shows the last 26 years of real-time forecasting by the global equity analyst we track to make our portfolio decisions.

The analyst is Keppler Asset Management and the index they create The KAM Equally Weighted World Index is 15.4% below the value that the analyst forecast four years ago in September 2016.

The chart shows how in the past, two and a half decades there have been four opportunities (red Xs) when the entry levels in global markets were below or around the lower valuation band.  In the previous three low points like this, there has always been the highest growth and positive returns three to five years later.

keppler

 

So it’s good to know that if you invest in global stock markets overall, now, you’ll make capital gains over the next four or five years.

More importantly you get paid more income now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not in 2020.

This year equities have been paying a higher yield than bonds.

As of November 2020, according to Ycharts.com, (1)  AA bond yields are at 1.59%.

ycharts.com

 

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.68% as of November 2020 .  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.59% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact US shares pay one of the lousiest average yields of the 46 stock markets we, via Keppler, monitor around the world.

Eight solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay more than double the average US yield.  They pay  3.57% compared to the US yield of 1.68%.

keppler

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years.

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only five times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course uses Keppler analytics to track 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Pi teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for most stock markets around the world.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of higher performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) Ycharts.com corporate bond yields

Developed Market Update


With the US stock markets being so wobbly, we need alternative investments around the world.

Once a quarter we send out Purposeful Investing subscribers (Pi) a 79 page report prepared by Keppler Asset Management that looks at the value and performance of every developed stock market in the world.  Here’s a chart that’s in this quarter’s for the autumn of 2020.

keppler

The good value markets selling at an average price-to-book of 1.24 are quite a bargain compared to the US market selling at an average price of book of 3.96.

Plus investors who ignored overseas markets, last quarter, lost out!  Through September 2020, the US market was up 6.8%. Th Danish market was up +20.2%.  New Zealand was up +8.1%.  In addition while the US market paid an average  1.63% dividend, the Top Value markets paid an average 3.44% dividend.

In connection with the Coronavirus outbreak in the first three months 2020, developed markets equities suffered their worst quarterly decline of the last fifty years. Then, in the second quarter they recovered strongly with total returns in the high teens.

In the third quarter, the cap-weighted MSCI World Total Return Index (ND) advanced 7.9% in US dollars.

Twelve markets advanced last quarter and eleven markets declined.

Denmark (+10.3%), Sweden (+10.1%)and Ireland (+9.7%) were up most, while Austria (-8.8%), Spain (-7.8 %) and Portugal (-7.5%) were the biggest losers.

Despite the strong rally in the second and third quarters, seventeen markets were still down and only six markets advanced year-to-date.

Denmark (+20.2%), New Zealand (+8.1%) and the U.S. (+6.8%) performed best year-to-date, while Austria (-37.2%), Spain (-28.6%) and Belgium (-25.6%) came in last.

There were no changes in the best value developed market ratings last quarter. The Top Value Model Portfolio now holds the eight  “Buy”-rated markets Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom at equal weights.

According to the analyses of Keppler Asset management, an equally weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance. The chart below shows the entire real-time forecasting history for the KAM Equally Weighted World Index, starting at the end of 1993.

keppler

The current level is 5.8% above the lower forecast band, which Keppler forecast four years ago. In the past, entry levels below or around the lower valuation band have always yielded positive returns three to five years later.

Keppler’s implicit three-to-five-year projection places the KAM Equally Weighted World Index rising for a compound annual total return estimate of 6.1 % in local currencies.

The upper-band estimate implies a compound annual total return of 11.1%, while the lower-band estimate indicates a compound annual total return of only 0.4%.

keppler

While the average developed market—as measured by the KAM Equally Weighted World Index—is now under-valued by 31% vs. the cap-weighted MSCI World Index, based on traditional valuation measures, the Top Value Markets are now undervalued by 41% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index, by 53% compared to the MSCI USA Index and by a whopping 68% compared to the MSCI World Growth Index.

We live in a global economy and to keep our investments balanced with the world, we should keep a continual watch on global value and international opportunity.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

A model portfolio that dates back to 1969 has dramatically outperformed almost every stock market in the world.

keppler

A hundred US dollars invested in that portfolio in 1969 is now worth $44833 compared to $100 invested in an equity weighted world index being worth $11,548.

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2020.   There have been no changes since.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: China, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Germany (symbol EWG) is a Country Index ETF  that tracks the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index. The fund is at all times invested at least 80% of its assets in the securities of its underlying index that primarily consists of all the large-and mid-capitalization companies traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market in our Pifolio.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing. Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades. This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

keppler

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Save $102 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years,  right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $99 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

The Value Best Stock Market in the World


What’s the best value stock market in October 2020?

In this era of divisive media and fake news, it’s increasingly hard to know who and what to trust.

This is why, when it comes to choosing equities, I increasingly rely on math rather than stories.

Individual investors tend to think in terms of stories and act upon emotional responses to these tales.  This makes them fodder for institutional investors who select equities based on math.  The big boys react to changes in numbers not conjecture and opinion so they slaughter those who invest based on the rumor mill.   Thus the rich get richer.

If I were to speculate in any stock right now, I would use math to choose an ETF that covers the best value stock market in the world, based on price-to-book.

Most often the least expensive market is an emerging market, but  not right now.

The chart below shows the 26 emerging markets monitored by Keppler Asst Management.

The best value emerging market based on price-to-book is Pakistan with a 0.81 price-to-book.

kepler

However, the Pakistani exchange has volatility that is sky high: Last year Bloomberg called it the “world’s worst stock market,” noting that values had halved in 2019.

The chart from www.finance.yahoo.com below shows the performance of the Global X MSCI Pakistan ETF (PAK) that  provides investors access to the largest, most liquid companies in Pakistan.

pakistan

Poor performing markets can bounce back.  This ETF that invests entirely in Pakistan equities is up 38.40% in the last six months.

Yet I would limit investments in Pakistan shares.

First there is the political risk.  Just three months ago (June 29), four gunmen stormed the Pakistan stock Exchange shooting bullets and grenades.  Eight people died.

Attacks on Wall Street or any stock exchange are not unthinkable of course.  Even 100 years ago 143 died when Wall Street was bombed.  The FBI has broken up recent plots to bomb the exchange as well.

Still Pakistan’s political situation might be a little less stable than many developed countries.

The Pakistan market is also very volatile due to the lack of an active investor base and liquidity in the market.

There is a developed market that has an even better price-to-book at this time.

Take a look at the developed value markets tracked by Keppler and you’ll see that Austria is the best value stock market with a price-to-book of 0.71.

keppler

keppler

The iShares MSCI Austria ETF seeks to track the investment results of a broad-based index composed of Austrian equities.

About iShares MSCI Austria ETF

The investment seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI Austria IMI 25/50 Index. The fund generally invests at least 90% of its assets in the securities of its underlying index and in depositary receipts representing securities in its underlying index. The index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index with a capping methodology applied to issuer weights so that no single issuer exceeds 25% of the underlying index weight, and all issuers with a weight above 5% do not cumulatively exceed 50% of the underlying index weight. The fund is non-diversified.

austria

With the plunge of 37% in late 2019, the Austrian market could offer some extra profit in a recovery.

This would be a speculation.  Austria is not a top value market based on Keppler Asset management analyses.

The top value markets are Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom at equal weights.

According to Kepler’s analyses, an equally weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

My strategy is based on investing in ETFs that invest in good value markets, based on their price-to-book,  P/E ratio and average dividend.

By trusting numbers we can create a plan based on math based, good value economic data, instead of guesswork.

Every type of analysis shows that by keeping costs down and investing in good value equities for the long term, provides maximum safety and profit in stock markets.

Yet Boomers can’t always have a long term perspective.

Thinking long term and keeping costs down are two of the vital components of a calm investing strategy so I have a special offer for Boomers on my birthday.

Enroll in our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) at any price you feel you can afford

Stock market have always been the best place to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 16 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 16 shares and have traded only three times.

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  The fact you don’t have to seek out specific shares eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential from the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of right now in October 2020.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI German (symbol EWG) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI German Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap German stocks.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market in our Pifolio.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Enroll in Pi for any amount you choose.  You get the 130 page basic training, plus you receive a 120 page 46 stock market value report, and access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates, usually 6 to 8 reports a month. Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  Learn the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Pi reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

In this special birthday offer you can subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi) for any amount you feel you can afford.  The annual fee is normally $299, but Boomers can pay whatever they choose for the first year.

ecuador-seminar

Gary Scott

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for any amount you choose.  This is the last week of  this special offer.

Buy Purposeful Investing

Your subscription will be charged the annual renewal fee of $99 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

Civil War II – The Cost of Trading Down


Over the last 52 years I have been involved in global economic activity, mostly while residing either on US or British soil.

During that time I  have never seen quite as much polarity in the USA or in the UK.

It’s like Civil War II.

Why?

boris johnson

Boris Johnson

Donald trump

Donald Trump

Could it be hairdos?

The hair is probably not the point nor should it be.

The fact that mainstream media focuses on the hair and looks and other irrelevant information is more the issue.

In both the US and Britain, huge tensions are being based around emotions created by unimportant information rather than on issues.  This makes Winston Churchill’s quote about voters all too correct.

Churchill said:  “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

Sadly politcans think this is true and try to lead through distorted stories.

Author Yuval Noah Harari, in his missive 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, clarified an important point:  “Humans think in stories rather than in facts, numbers, or equations, and the simpler the story, the better.”

This creates a problem.  Politicians think that voters have to be told a simple story, so they dumb down important, complex messages so they don’t get across enough of the tale.

I saw a prime example of this in NPR’s coverage of the recent Supreme Court hearings when one speaker spoke about the issue of allowing felons to vote.  He started off talking about how Democrats wanted to let murders and rapists vote.  That theme remained throughout the speech.  There was no mention of the fact that a majority of felons are not murders or rapists and huge numbers are solid citizens caught up in drug problems.

I felt insulted that anyone would think I would buy into such a distorted story!

I believe that one root of these tensions both in the US and UK is “Trading Down”.   Brexit and Trump are popular with the disenfranchised middle class who have seen the quality of their lifestyles erode as politicians and big businesses work together to make a few people, who prey on the middle class, rich.

One of many examples why the middle class should be angry is zero interest rates on her investments and savings.

Banks like JP Morgan Chase, pay nothing on middle class savings.  But they still charge really high interest on credit cards.  The middle class lifestyle is being whittled down by losses on their savings and high payments on their debts.  Even though banks like this have been shown (and fined billions) to cheat their customers again and again, they have been given billion dollar bailouts of public money during hard times.  The CEOs in charge are still on the job.  What is worse is they are paid huge sums that seem to increase yearly.

This trading down of values is true on the political scene as well.  Take Harry S. Truman as an example.  President Truman stated that he would never involve himself in “any transaction, however respectable, that would commercialize on the prestige and dignity of the office of the presidency.”

After his term, he lived modestly so he could get by on a $112.56 monthly Army pension and his savings.  It is said he saved as much as 20 or 25 percent of his $75,000 annual compensation (from April 1945 to January 1949, and $100,000 thereafter).

Truman’s net worth was estimated to be $750,000 so only his prudent retirement planning and modest living habits provided for an adequate retirement.

The Clinton family on the other hand who had a negative net worth when Bill Clinton left the presidency (due to legal fees related to the Monica Lewinsky affair) make tens of millions a year.

When middle class Americans (or British) see those who should be serving them, taking advantage; they become angry, especially when the middle class lifestyles are being eroded.

“Trading Down” is a great unsettling change.

The Brexit and Trump arguments are symptoms of such a change in the Western World that we could call it Civil War II.   I nor anyone knows how it will turn out, but there are practical ways to make sure that we are not ruined by the battle.

One of the most important steps is to seek value.  For example the UK and US political struggles have the potential to bring bad and good.

However the UK Stock Market reflects the risk where as the US market does not.  Look at these figures from a recent lesson about value investing in our Purposeful investing Course (Pi).

Both the US and UK face many unknown factors.  The UK market reflects these risks.  Look at the fundamentals.  According to the analysis of Keppler Asset Management shares in the US market are selling at a premium of 3.96 times book value.

The UK market is selling at 1.41 times book value.  The average dividend yield of the US market is 1.63%. The UK is more than double at 3.90%.

Compare the US and UK, as of Sep. 30, 2020 below.

keppler

Both markets offer great long term opportunity with short term risk.

The UK has a good risk reward ratio.  The US does not.

Is one guaranteed to rise more than the other? 

No one knows but the Top Value strategy we research in our Pi course shows that investing into a diversified equally-weighted combination of top value markets during times of turmoil and tension offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

This is the best way to protect against risk and increases the odds for profit.

Gary

Coronavirus and the Stock Market Round Two

Coronavirus and the stock market.  Round Two is coming.

This virus and the market faced off in the spring.  The market won.  As the chart below shows, after a huge March 2020 collapse,the DJIA is almost back to its December 2019 level.

stocks

The market’s back up, but history suggests that we’ll see volatility in the ten years ahead.

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  The .dotcom bubble burst just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

The market then went nowhere from 2000 to 2014.   Finally it started reaching new high levels.

Such decades long sideways movement after a severe correction is nothing new in the stock market.

So everything’s in order… except the pandemic.  The ravages of the coronavirus dramatically increase the unknown and this uncertainty is the greatest purveyor  of weakness that a stock market can have.

Such delays have profound implications for older generations who may need to cash in equities for income.  How do we maximize the return on your savings and investments during this extremely dangerous time?

For the past five years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain income and appreciation from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) to determine which markets offer the best value so we can be in a perfect position to take advantage of stock market corrections all over the world.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: Austria, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

You can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but during the pandemic to introduce you to this online course  I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy, diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

 

 

Better Value Now


Here’s why I am getting better value in the stock market this month compared to September. 

See how you can get better value too.

pixabay

Last week we sent our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) subscribers an October 2020 developed market update that provides immediate information about 23 major stock markets around the globe (essentially all of the world’s developed markets).

That update is based on an examination of every stock listed in the 23 developed equity markets.

The subscribers saw how in September 2020, six markets were up and seventeen markets declined.

The stock markets in Denmark (+3.3%), Sweden (+3.0%) and Ireland (+1.0%) gained most.  Stock markets in Israel (-7.9%), Austria (-7.0%) and Hong Kong (-5.2%) had the lowest returns.

They also saw that Year-to-date, Denmark was still the best performing market, up  +20.2%.

The review of these markets includes data dated back to 1969.  A model portfolio, based on the Top Value Strategy we use, that was started in December 1969 at $100, is now worth $33,413.

The review also showed that this model portfolio is very safe, far less volatile than any one share or even any one stock market as a whole.   Yet like any stock portfolio it does not rise all the time.  In fact in 2020 year-to-date, this portfolio is down 15.8%.

The secret in this type of investing is to accumulate during down times because, the portfolio offers better value when rices are down.

The basis for deciding what’s a good value or poor value portfolio is in part the price-to-book of the entire market and the average dividend yield.

According to the analysis we use for our Pi course the tables below shows how the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to three alternatives at the end of  August and September 2020 including price-to-book  (PBV) and average dividend yield (DY):

End of August 2020

keppler

Values at the end of August 2020

The Top Value Portfolio was available at 1.26 times book in August, but is available at 1.24 times book now.  In addition the average dividend has risen  from 3.36% to 3.44%.

End of September 2020

Screen Shot 2020-10-06 at 7.15.42 AM

Values at the end of September 2020

Dollar Cost Average

When investors create a dollar cost average strategy using a top value portfolio strategy, they get the largest amount of equities at the best price, that pay the highest dividend.

Here are the eight top value developed markets as of the end of September 2020.

The Top Value Model Portfolio holds the eight “Buy”-rated markets Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom at equal weights.

According to the analysis, we track for our Pi course, this Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is now undervalued by 41% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index, by 53% compared to the MSCI USA Index and by a whopping 68% compared to the MSCI World Growth Index.

Gary

Add Safety, Profit & Get Paid Double

The next four years will be a period of high overseas stock growth.

The chart below shows the last 26 years of real-time forecasting by the global equity analyst we track to make our portfolio decisions.

The analyst is Keppler Asset Management and the index they create The KAM Equally Weighted World Index is 15.4% below the value that the analyst forecast four years ago in September 2016.

The chart shows how in the past, two and a half decades there have been four opportunities (red Xs) when the entry levels in global markets were below or around the lower valuation band.  In the previous three low points like this, there has always been the highest growth and positive returns three to five years later.

keppler

 

So it’s good to know that if you invest in global stock markets overall, now, you’ll make capital gains over the next four or five years.

More importantly you get paid more income now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not in 2020.

This year equities have been paying a higher yield than bonds.

As of November 2020, according to Ycharts.com, (1)  AA bond yields are at 1.59%.

ycharts.com

 

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.68% as of November 2020 .  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.59% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact US shares pay one of the lousiest average yields of the 46 stock markets we, via Keppler, monitor around the world.

Eight solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay more than double the average US yield.  They pay  3.57% compared to the US yield of 1.68%.

keppler

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years.

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only five times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course uses Keppler analytics to track 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Pi teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for most stock markets around the world.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of higher performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) Ycharts.com corporate bond yields