Tag Archive | "Value investing"

Extra Value, Higher Income Equity Markets


There are three extra value, stock markets that will present special opportunity in the next market correction.

Numerous signals suggest there will be a global stock market correction some time this year.  Here are a couple provided by ENR Asset Management,(1)  one of the few SEC registered investment advisors that still help US investors hold assets outside the USA.

#1: A new phase of bull market speculation triggered by the Fed’s ultra easy monetary policies and asset purchases ($120 billion/month) have pushed the post-March 2020 mania into overdrive. Hedge funds, including Melvin Capital, lost more than $70 billion in short squeeze trades last month to a band of organized retail speculators –almost crashing one of Wall Street’s most successful hedge funds. Bitcoin, SPACs, IPO frenzies, massive price gains for many unprofitable companies and record NYSE margin debt all portend a severe correction looming at some point.

#2: The stock market has been on a tear since November and we continue to anticipate a short but violent correction. Excesses abound in the ‘retail mob’ (Reddit) attacking hedge fund shorts and driving individual stock prices to ridiculous single-day gains. Exuberance remains largely manifested in record high NYSE margin debt, a SPAC and IPO boom, a collapse in the puts-to-calls ratio, and bullish investment adviser sentiment. In the absence of a near-term correction, excesses will continue, and a deeper decline will follow.

ENR’s thinking matches mine that equity markets are in a balloon stage.

The record New York debt margin is a special early alert to me.

PIXABAY

When big investors become overconfident, they borrow too much, a sure sign that danger’s ahead.

Value markets are not overbought as much, but are still vulnerable as all markets have been pushed up by low interest rates and the other factors mentioned above by ENR.

My experience suggests that when the correction comes, all markets will see a sharp drop and a window of good buying opportunity will prevail.

PIXABAY

Asia offers special opportunity.

ENR also pointed out:

#1: China, long ranked #2, assumed top spot for foreign direct investments (FDI) in 2020, overtaking the United States for the first time. The U.S. has held title to the top FDI destination for decades.FDI peaked in the U.S. in 2016 at $472 billion when China drew $134 billion. In 2020, East Asia attracted a third of all FDI worldwide, its largest share since records began in the 1980s. India saw a 13% increase. In the West, the EU saw a hefty 71% plunge; the U.K. and Italy attracted no new investments while in Germany FDIs sank 61% last year. The pandemic hurt U.S. and EU FDI flows;

#2: The United States and China are set to lead the global recovery this year, according to the IMF. China has successfully implemented what the IMF called ‘effective containment measures’ to aggressively curb the spread of Covid-19.

#3: In 2020, Chinese GDP grew 2.3% versus a contraction of 3.5% in the United States;

pixabay

Two Extra Value Asian Stock Markets

Low price-to-book shows that both the Hong Kong and Singapore stock market offer ultra good value at this time.

Investing in these markets currently reaps of  3.33% average dividend and offers a large diversification into good value, high quality equities.

Hong Kong and Singapore are top value markets in a zone of extra opportunity.

I am watching for this correction and will be letting my Purposeful Investing (Pi) subscribers know when I buy, but you should be watching too so you can increase your portfolio at a time that makes sense for you.

If these values remain,  plan to add these markets during market downturns.

Here’s all eight of the current top value developed stock markets.

keppler feb 2021

Each of the markets is accessible through an iShares country ETF.

The ETFs are:  iShares Hong Kong (EWH).

Here’s the funds last year performance.

ishares

iShares Singapore (EWS).

ishares

Gary

CHAOS CREATES MANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR YOU

Cash in on the new normal.

If the pandemic has taught us anything it’s that the so called “experts” really don’t have a clue how to solve this problem. We cannot rely on their information. Instead, we need to plan for and prepare for our own “new normal” if we want to survive.

The pandemic is not the only problem.

The global response to this viral outbreak is just one signal of a world that’s sliding into a devastation and disorder.  The worst turmoil is still to come because of the economic destruction.

With mounting debt, we are well into an economic collapse that will be worse than the pandemic.

The current social economic archetype has already killed millions and destroyed the finances and lives of far more.   Worldwide, unemployment is at an all-time high.  Many businesses have been destroyed.

Governments are trying to solve the problem by throwing money on the fire and are they are being crushed in debt in the process.

Yet, this is just a beginning. It is estimated that it will take 10-15 years to recover from the economic devastation.

To survive the coming economic downturns, you’ll need to learn the importance of adjusting how you live, work, invest and take care of yourself for the next ten to fifteen years!
You can’t rely on governments to bail you out.

Adapt!

That’s exactly what Merri and I have been doing for the last 50 years.

3 d

We have learned the power of being able to adapt to constantly changing markets all over the world and created a not-so small fortune while doing so.  That’s why we’re uniquely qualified to teach you how to not just survive but to PROSPER during the challenging times ahead. Chaos always creates many opportunities for those who know how to spot them and take advantage of them. A good example has been the mass exodus from urban areas to more rural areas.

Since many are working from home, they can live anywhere. There is a shortage of good housing in rural areas now. Merri and I are buying then rehabbing houses to full the gap.  We saw this opportunity coming and jumped in early.

We let readers know of the risks of a pandemic, back in 2016.

Many are already enjoying a safer more secure and financially stable lifestyle already despite the lockdowns and crumbling economy.

Instead of waiting for things to get better, start preparing for things to get worse, much worse.

You also need to learn how to spot opportunities which are all around you. As the economy changes, the opportunities will change too.

That’s why Merri and I keep a constant pulse on opportunities worldwide and report our findings to a special club of unique individuals that we started over 30 years ago. For decades, this club has been called the International Club, but this year we renamed it the Pruppie Club.

What is a Pruppie?

Pruppieism, the new economic and social realism.  Pruppies, like Yuppies, expect everything to expand. They take advantage of every new benefit and technology they can. Pruppies enjoy using the fruits of our ancestor’s deliberations and labors to earn in this advanced technological world.

Pruppies, also, like Preppers, engage in activity that they love that will sustain them when society and the incredibly intricate weave of our global economy and society let us down.

We need to be both, Yuppies and Preppers, Pruppies!

Take profit from the incredible new technology that gives us super powers to earn and grow wealth. Be safe and secure, when social economic tidal waves like plagues, stagflation fascism and communism overwhelm the world.

Pruppies are prepared in case everything, everywhere, or at least everything relating to their income and savings fails and the fabric that surrounds their lives disintegrates into an unknown veil.

Yet a Pruppie’s preparation is not a sacrifice, but a joy as you will see.

Learn how you can become a Pruppie.

gary-scott-orange-grove

I’m no farmer but grow citrus so I’ll always have food to swap. Let me show you how to lock in your food supply.

EARLY ACCESS! We are changing more than the club’s name and you can be in the unique position as one of a select few who are charter members of our new Pruppie Club.

You’ll be the first to know about opportunities and trends all over the world in our bi-monthly report and monthly conference calls which are exclusively for members.

You’ll learn how to:

  • Create a sustainable income without a job or a pension – just in case you lose your job or there is a disruption in pension payments.
  • Learn how to make money working from home – wherever home might be.  A location independent business gives you the flexibility to move to a safer or more affordable location if necessary.
  • Turn your passion in to a profit.
  • How to create quick cash and lasting wealth when you don’t have any money to get started. This strategy can help you build a nest egg fast.
  • Learn easy ways to grow food, including beekeeping, hydroponic and greenhouses (if necessary, food can be used to trade for other services or to sell)
  • Natural healing and lifestyle changes to make now to avoid expensive medications later.
  • Alternative water sources including rainwater collection – just in case the municipal supply is not available for extended periods of time.
  • Alternative Heating and Power. Solar, wood, wind, and hydropower.
  • Where the opportunities are now and the best way to profit from them.
  • Communication beyond internet – how to stay in touch if the internet or power goes down. Protect against government and businesses from snooping around what you wrote and say.
  • Learn about safe social media sites.
  • Precious Metals, Crypto Currencies, and stock investing diversification strategies.
  • International living to reduce costs and gain more freedoms

All this and much more will be EXCLUSIVELY available to you as one of the select charter members of our Pruppie Club.

The regular prices for the International Club was $497 per year, but during this time of crisis and evolution we are offering new charter members an early access special fee schedule.

EARLY ACCESS SPECIAL! Join before February 15th for only $179 plus $99 per year.

I invite you to join those few who will become healthier, wealthier and more fulfilled in the decade ahead.  Become a Pruppie, one of the core persons who will glide through the destruction and be able to help the world restore order.

Ecuador-beach-condos

I’m no builder nor carpenter, but was partly responsible for creating these condos on Ecuador’s coast (above) and in Ecuador’s Andes (below), a decade before this expat community boomedFind out the trick for spotting trends like this early.

Ecuador real estate for sale

As an Elite Pruppie Member, you’ll get INSTANT ACCESS To:

Live Anywhere, Earn Everywhere (a $39.99 value). This 250 page report published in 2016 reveals ways to gain fulfillment doing what you love but how to also include something that will be useful if society and the incredibly intricate weave of the global economy and society fail.

This report has already helped many readers prepare for the pandemic in advance, but it’s not too late. the incredible special opportunities for future profit still exist.

Natural Healing the Shamanic Way (a $59.97 value).  Learn about #1: Nutrition, #2: Purification, #3: Exercise These three reports show how to gain better natural health. The foundation of all fulfillment, contentment, happiness and success is good health. Yet when it comes to health care, we may well be on our own. The way to escape the dangers of the high cost, deteriorating health care system, is to not need it. Declare health independence… and create natural good health. There are dozens of simple, really low costs steps that can improve health… eating, purification, exercise, even the way we think and don’t think when we sleep.

Super Spanish (a $79 Value).  One alternative to infrastructure deterioration and skyrocketing costs is to move abroad. The top choices include Panama, Ecuador and several other Spanish speaking countries. Super Spanish provides a way to almost instantly be able to communicate in Spanish. Thousands who have taken this course were creating Spanish sentences in just four hours.

The course uses special music to unlock your brain’s super powers and provides 17 easy lessons that give you a vocabulary of 4055 words you don’t have to memorize and will never forget. Within three days you have a base language that works and lets you become a fluent speaker of Spanish.

Purposeful Investing Course: ( a $99 Value).  A Good Value Stock Market Strategy. The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs. This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use. Pi analysis every share in 46 stock markets around the world and reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Because all shares in the Pi portfolio were in non USA stock markets, the return seemed to under perform due to a strong US dollar. Yet the return was still over 10% per annum. Now conditions are set for overperformance in the upcoming years.

Super Thinking Workshop (a $49 Value). Increase your mental agility with baroque music. Be smarter… more energetic…. healthier… more relaxed in 17 minutes a day.

Self Fulfilled: How to Have a Pinnacle Career with an at home self-publishing business (a $79 Value). In this era, our experience is worth more than the cost of getting it. We are not worn out at 50 or 55 or 65 or more. These can be our best years. Make the rest of your life the best time of your life. Turn your passion into profit with a mission.

gary scott

I have no hatchery but learned how to raise trout like this, for fun, profit and a guaranteed protein supply.  Learn how to turn passions into protein.

THERE’S MORE…

BI-MONTHLY REPORTS. Exclusively for Pruppie Club members. Best practices to prosper, unique opportunities, and better ways to survive the economic collapse. The report will feature what other subscribers are doing too. We can all learn from each other.

MONTHLY CONFERENCE CALLS! I will talk about the latest news and trends to help you jump on opportunities. This will not be about the doom and gloom that surrounds you. These one-hour calls are your chance to ask questions and share ideas too. ONLY Pruppie members will have access to the replay of all conference calls.

TWO BONUS REPORTS: Five Ways to Make Money With Real Estate Even You Don’t Have Any Cash or Credit eBook. The techniques in this ebook could help you make $3,000 to $5000 per month without a job. 



This bonus is Jackie Lange’s ebook on how to generate cash without a big investment.

Jackie’s book is a step-by-step guide for making money with real estate with less than $10 invested, not buying the house, and no repairs….yet still making at least $5000.

She made $30,000 in three days on her last flip deal.

Even if people don’t want to make a business out of this, it is a fast, low-risk way to generate cash

Fund Your Freedom Overseas eBook – Learn how to make money working from your home anywhere in the world. These are all location independent business ideas.

jackie

GET READY!

Enormous, economic, social, political and productivity change was already in the process.  The pandemic however has accelerated and accentuated the process. You still have time to join the few who are left standing from the 2020 disaster.

You still have time to become one who will prosper during the 2020 decade. You can be one of a small elite group who will be able to help restore a healthy world order. The world will be very different from what we have known for the past seventy years, but when looked at in a framework of longer history… it’s the same old tale.

The last couple of millennia are filled with stories of empires rising and falling.  There are basic conditions in each of these tales.

  • First the idea of debt loses its real meaning and rising to levels that are unsustainable.
  • Interest rates charged for debt fall to extremely low levels so the idea of investing for a known amount stops making sense.
  • Central monetary authorities replace innovation and increased productivity as activators of the economy.
  • Disparity of wealth widens dramatically and the spread increases.
  • There is so much divisiveness in politics within countries that social and political conflicts spiral.

We’re seeing these changes rapidly happening now!

Fwd: gary-scott-tipis

I learned how to turn land into income producing property cheap and cashed in on the glamping craze a decade before the word was invented.  I want to share this trick with you.

Social and economic deterioration restricts safety, lifestyle, well-being and peace of mind. Social and economic shifts of this nature reduce the purchasing power of income.

Inflation, for example puts pensions and savings at risk. 

Growing deception allows manipulation of medical care, finances, the value of homes, how cars are bought, the price of gas, the education and raising of children, the food we buy and eat, the shows watched and the ways we work and play.

A very large and growing part of the public throughout the Western world no longer believes in the integrity of local or national government, law enforcement, health care, banking, pensions, legal systems, educational processes, media or church, just to name a few.

However, mistrust of anything authorities say has become so deeply rooted that even health assurances as serious as the pandemic have not been believed.

I invite you to join Merri and me in expecting the world to get better… to live and earn based on that expectation but…  to also prepare for bad times as well as good.  Just in case… the world goes sideways… we will still survive and prosper.

We do not give up anything much.  We can enjoy the good parts of the new economy, as we protect ourselves from what can be bad.

Let me be clear.  I expect that the world will get better, at least for the few who adapt and avoid the dangers that the changes from the COVID pandemic will bring.

The wealth of the world, albeit with inequality, will continue to grow.  This collapse of the global economy will bring an incredible new opportunity for those who know what to do.  These profit making avenues offer enormous income potential and even work well in disaster scenarios. Join the Pruppie Club so you can wake up every day knowing that you are prepared and in charge of your destiny.

gary scott

I’m no doctor but have learned how to avoid and survive the excessively expensive western health system and its hidden agendas.  See a simple $19.95 trick  used when the COVID-`19 symptoms appeared.

JOIN the PRUPPIE CLUB HERE. Only $179 if you join before February 15th.

 

 

 

Robin Hoodie


Do not confuse values with value.  If you do, the guy with the hood can (and will) steal from you.

Don’t expect Robin Hood to steal from the rich and give to the poor.  He just steals.

Last week (Feb. 1) I wrote: “Small investors are cooperating through social networking communication and are winning over some of the biggest investment firms.  Expect more of this type trading this week, but DO NOT DO IT YOURSELF!

If you have been playing this game, take your profits and run.  If you have not…. don’t!”

I promised to say more in a future message, so here it is.

We have all heard of pump and dump.  That’s where a stock promoter will tout the benefits of buying a share while selling personally.  This is one of the oldest stock ripoff tricks in the world.

See below how ideal social networking is, as an instrument to pump and dump.

hoodie

Don’t let Robinhood (or any broker) become Robinhoodie and rob you.

The Wall Street Journal article “Robinhood’s Reckoning: Facing Life After GameStop” shows one reason why I put DO NOT DO IT in bold and with an exclamation.

Stock market investing and politics are contact sports! When anyone threatens the established financial order to such a degree as the Gamestop surge has, it will be shut down. 

In these periods of rapid technological change, experience is often a disadvantage, but in this case, my experience with silver investing is applicable.

I was young and speculated heavily in silver during the 1970s era when Bunker Hunt and his brothers William and Lamar Hunt began accumulating large amounts of silver in the 1970s.

By 1979, they had nearly cornered the global silver market and profited an estimated US$2-4 billion in silver speculation.

This drove silver’s price from $11 an ounce in September 1979 to $50 an ounce in January 1980.  I was so lucky.  Due to a trip that would keep me away from a phone (no cell phones back in the day) and my heavy leverage, I sold at the very top of the market (right at the top).

Almost to the day of my sale, the establishment struck back in several ways.

The trading companies raised the margins required to cover silver contracts.  Then the Hunt brothers were charged “with manipulating and attempting silver price by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

By 1988 the billionaire (a lot in the 1980s) Hunt brothers filed for bankruptcy as a result of their silver speculation. They paid tens of millions in fines in addition to a multimillion-dollar settlement to pay back taxes, fines and interest to the IRS

So The Wall Street Journal article “Robinhood’s reckoning can it survive the Gamestop bubble” (1) did not bring me any surprise.

The article says: The firm that set out to bring investing to the masses has run into the reality of Wall Street regulations

Matters came to a head early on Jan. 28 when the clearinghouse that handles Robinhood’s trades demanded it put up a total of $3 billion to cover the day’s trading, a cushion for the risks created by a stunning run-up in a few stocks, such as GameStop Corp. GME 19.20% , fed by cheerleading on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum.

The demand, 10 times Robinhood’s daily requirements earlier that week, set in motion a chain of events that included stopping customers from buying the very stocks that made the app so popular.

The firm that set out to bring investing to the masses had run into the reality of Wall Street, with its tangle of often-expensive regulations, overseers and Byzantine infrastructure.

This is the same tactic the establishment used against the Hunts in 1980.  Robinhood managed to raise the money to cover the extra margin but this will not end Robinhood’s problems.

They may survive, but investors have to beware because social networking is a perfect venue for pumping and dumping.

A lot of stories get circulated about amateur  investors turning a few thousand into fortunes.  Another Wall Street Journal article tells how one 14 year old bought 33 shares of Game stop at $87 and saw it rise to $483.  He held on and it dropped to $53.50, but the investor said:  “The stock price hardly matters right now, I’m definitely riding with it.”

For years, we have been sharing the idea that investors will increasingly invest based on values as well as value.  We encourage this… investing in what you believe in.

But your values need to be supported by value!

If my grandfather, and his cohorts had protested what automobiles would do to humanity and invested in buggy whip manufacturing factories. they simply would have lost their money.  Cars would still be here.

Many of the social media traders who invested in Gamestops and AMC (interesting that silver became involved) did so with some idea that they were protesting and hurting “Big Wall Street”.   Losing money to Wall Street is not a good way to protest!

These traders think they are making history and this has made trading stocks look like fun.

Such ephemeral concepts that go viral without any real thought and are then magnified and intensified by waves of other non thinking traders are a perfect foil for pumpers and dumpers.

The Wall Street Journal article “Trader ‘Roaring Kitty’ and Former Employer May Face Federal Regulatory Scrutiny” (2) shows how vulnerable investors are to this tactic.

Mr. Gill has posted dozens of videos or livestreams over the past six months, most of them related to his view that GameStop shares were undervalued and would rise as others took notice. Some videos examined the company’s past performance and forecast aspects of its future outlook.

Mr. Gill has owned 50,000 shares of GameStop since early January, along with bullish options that pay off if the stock price passed $12, according to his recent posts on Reddit, which were written under the username “DeepF—ingValue.” Mr. Gill posted Wednesday on Reddit that he was “gonna back off the daily updates for now.”

GameStop shares reached an intraday high of $483 on Jan. 28, after trading around $17 at the beginning of the year, according to FactSet. The stock plummeted in the past few days but rebounded somewhat on Friday to reach $61.07.

Mr. Gill talked to the Journal last week about his new life as a famous trader.

The next day, Mr. Gill posted another screenshot—showing about a $15 million loss. After Thursday’s market close, his E*Trade brokerage account, viewed by the Journal, held around $33 million, including GameStop stock, options and millions in cash.

The article does not confirm that Mr. Gill was pumping and dumping, but you can be sure, if he was not, others were and they will when social networking creates future waves of this sort.

My parents used to hammer me with the thought that “a gambler never owns anything”.  Some of that ideology must have stuck.  There is no such thing as a risk free investment.  Risk is the price we pay for expecting a return.  The more risk we take, the greater return we should expect.  But also the greater loss.

Most of us are not emotionally prepared to take too much risk.  Risk aversion is a human trait that simply means that avoiding loss is more important than making profit.  It is our nature to react more dramatically and make more mistakes when prices are crashing than when they rise.

hoodie

Most of us are not prepared for hoodie like this alone, at night nor are we prepared for  leveraged trading

Robinhood has  a mantra “provide insane customer service,”.  I think that means provide insanely good service, but according to the Wall Street Journal article, the company only had about 100 people assigned to respond to users’ issues and didn’t operate a hotline users could call to seek help. Agents responded only to emails and social-media messages.

This resulted in some disasters.

From WSJ: Limitations in customer service continued into the summer, when a 20-year-old student named Alex Kearns tried to reach a Robinhood customer-service representative in the middle of the night regarding a sophisticated options position. An amateur trader, Mr. Kearns was rattled when he thought his account statement showed he had lost three-quarters of a million dollars.

Mr. Kearns received an automated email reply from the company, according to people familiar with the matter. He killed himself on June 14, leaving a note that asked how someone of his inexperience was allowed to trade so easily. Mr. Kearns’s father declined to comment.

At the time, a relative told The Wall Street Journal that Mr. Kearns appeared to be looking at a figure on his account statement representing one leg of a trade that was losing money, but not the opposing leg that was gaining value.

Don’t kill yourself or let your finances be killed over investing.  Seek value in the values in which you invest.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

A model portfolio that dates back to 1969 has dramatically outperformed almost every stock market in the world.

keppler

A hundred US dollars invested in that portfolio in 1969 is now worth $44833 compared to $100 invested in an equity weighted world index being worth $11,548.

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2020.   There have been no changes since.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: China, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Germany (symbol EWG) is a Country Index ETF  that tracks the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index. The fund is at all times invested at least 80% of its assets in the securities of its underlying index that primarily consists of all the large-and mid-capitalization companies traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market in our Pifolio.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing. Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades. This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

keppler

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Save $102 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years,  right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $99 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com/articles/robinhoods-reckoning-can-it-survive-the-gamestop-bubble-11612547759?mod=itp_wsj&mod=djemITP_h

(2) www.wsj.com/articles/gamestop-trader-roaring-kitty-and-former-employer-may-face-federal-regulatory-scrutiny-11612553349?mod=itp_wsj&mod=djemITP_h

Slow Developed Stock Markets For the Next Four Years


Today’s a big day with the Presidential inauguration.

A big question in everyone’s mind, as the event unfolds, should be “how will the stock market react to the new administration?”

Yesterday I sent Purposeful Investing Course subscribers the answer to this question in a 79 page Keppler Asset Management Quarterly Developed Market Report.

This is a huge amount of information based on studies of every developed stock market around the world.  I doubt there are few sources of information that contain so much market data at one time.

I also stressed several important points that helped subscribers understand the answer to this four year stock market question.

First point: Keppler’s Total Return Projections, made since 1994, have been very accurate.

The chart below shows the entire real-time forecasting history for the KAM Equally Weighted World Index, starting at the end of 1993.

keppler

This last quarter the actual KAM Equally Weighted World Index is only 3.4% below the intrinsic value that Keppler forecast in December 2016.

Second Point: Keppler now projects a much lower return for all developed markets over the next three to five years.

This drop in projected results has little to do with politics, economies, world trade or any of that guesswork.

It’s all about the value!

Due to such a sharp rise in each major market last quarter, the projection for every national, index or strategy return projection is now down by several percentage points compared to the September 2020 projection quarter-end last year.  The markets shot up so fast they simply are not such good value now.

The current (December 31, 2020) projection is that the KAM Equally Weighted World Index will see a compound annual total return estimate of 2.6% in local currencies.  That projection is way down from the projection of 6.1% just three months ago.

The upper-band estimate implies a compound annual total return of 7.4% (down from 11.1% three months ago), while the lower-band estimate of  indicates a compound annual total return of minus 3.0% (down from positive 0.4% last quarter).

In other words global markets overheated, soared too high and we won’t see significant growth in the 3 to 5 years ahead.

Third point: The US market will see the worst results of all the major markets into 2024.

Keppler’s projections show negative 3-5 year total returns for the MSCI USA Index for the first time since 2000.

keppler

Fourth Point: The Top Value Markets will do best, Asia and Europe will be the best developed markets from now to 2024.

World growth will be stunted by the low US results.  Asia and Europe will catch up with the terrific results the US market enjoyed over the past 5 years.

The average developed market—as measured by the KAM Equally Weighted World Index—is now under-valued by 29% vs. the cap-weighted MSCI World Index, based on traditional valuation measures..

The Top Value Markets are now undervalued by 39% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index and are undervalued 51% compared to the MSCI USA Index.

This summary suggests that the next four years will see lower results in stock markets, especially the USA.

This fact is important to keep an eye on in case there is a significant correction.  If so this will be a good time to add to the Pifolio.

Gary

Learn how to create your own Top Value Portfolio (we call it a Pifolio).

Last week I sent a five year performance review showing that the Pifolio saw steady growth and good income (9.4% per annum) over that period.

The review shows that the Pifolio has been safe.

Perhaps the biggest benefit has been the ease.  There have been no advantages to viewing this portfolio daily or even weekly.   A monthly checkup has been more than enough to keep the portfolio balanced.  There have been only a handful of changes in the Top Value market over the past five years.  This strategy of easy, long term investing stops us from getting daily jitters and most important, frees up time so we can enjoy life.

The three benefits of the Pifolio are; safety, maximum profit potential and more time to live.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 53rd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full, no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2022 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

How to Make a Stock Market Fortune in 2021


Do you have what it takes to cash in on Wall Street?

Many will say you (be careful) do.

And you do (but maybe not how you think) as I’ll explain in a moment.

But first, consider this?

Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal article “James Simons Steps Down as Chairman of Renaissance Technologies” (1) tells the story of why today, a majority of trading on Wall Street comes from quantitative and other “nonfundamental” stock traders, that use computer driven predictive algorithms to make investments.

The article says: James Simons, who helped lead a quantitative revolution that has swept the world of finance, is stepping back from his hedge fund on the heels of a terrible year for clients, but a terrific one for the firm’s employees.

Mr. Simons, among the largest financial backers of Democractic candidates in recent years, told investors he was retiring as chairman of Renaissance Technologies LLC’s board of directors as of Jan. 1.

A former math professor and code breaker, Mr. Simons built Renaissance into one of the most successful investment firms in history by helping develop a new way to invest.

In the 1980s and 1990s, when most of the investing world was reading annual reports, chatting with executives and relying on intuition, Mr. Simons decided to let computers make his trading moves. He and his colleagues—all from the worlds of math and science—built predictive models capable of uncovering unrecognized market patterns, partly using early versions of machine learning.

Eventually, Mr. Simons built a fortune of more than $25 billion.

So do we have what it takes to clean up on Wall Street? 

Can we build predictive models capable of uncovering unrecognized market patterns, partly using early versions of machine learning?  Plus can we implement these codes with super powerful, ultra fast equipment based in high rent districts near where stock market computers process trades?

Because that’s what it takes to cash in on shares.

Jyske-bank

I know I can’t.  Many years ago, when I worked with Jyske Bank (one of the largest currency, stock and commodity traders in the world) I had meetings in their trading hall.  I met with their top traders and the people who created their algorithms and IT experts who ran their equipment.

They had this huge staff of really bright people, many millions of dollars of equipment and they were set up to trade 24 hours a day.

Jyske-bank

Photo I took of Jyske’s trading hall

I had been investing the old way for decades, starting in Hong Kong in the 1960s.  “What in the world am I doing trying to compete with these guys”, I thought.

So I stopped trading with the realization I still had to be invested in shares.

Many will tell you they have the algorithms and will sell them to you.  Be careful of those promises.  Chances are those codes don’t really work.   Even if they did work, do you have the fast (and I mean really fast) equipment and 24 hour a day ability to execute orders?

My answer was certainly no, so I looked for another way to have an easy, low cost process of gaining maximum profit and safety with investments in equities.

I found a solution and put it to work five years ago we I began the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi). 

I had for years followed the global stock market analysis of Keppler Asset Management, (KAM) the best value analyst I have ever found.   In October 2015, I  conducted a seminar that featured  Michael Keppler the founder of KAM as a speaker explaining how his analysis works.  I have included a link to that speech at the end of this review.

Then mid December 2015 to start our analysis of the portfolio (Pifolio) we would create investing in country ETFs of Keppler Top Value countries, we invested $80,000 that we could track and report on to our subscribers so they saw the real deal, the genuine results  as they unfolded.

The goal was to make the process utterly simple, excessively inexpensive and safe in the long term.

Here are the results of that Pifolio after five years.

ETF                                                  Invested   Now    Gain    %

Global X FDS GLBX MSCI NORW  $6242    $8103   1861   29.3%
iShares MSCI ETF Brazil                   2597      3883   1286   45.8%
iShares MSCI ETF Chile                    2613      3151     538   20.5%
iShares MSCI ETF Colombia             2613      3274     661   25.2%
iShares MSCI ETF France                 6183       8307   2124   34.3%
iShares MSCI ETF Germany              6175      7637   1462    23.6%
iShares MSCI ETF Hong Kong          6174      7842   1668     27.0%
iShares MSCI ETF Mexico                 5488      5996     508     09.2%
iShares MSCI ETF Spain                   2989      3880      891    29.8%
iShares MSCI ETF Sth Korea            2559      4618     2059   80.4%
iShares MSCI ETF Australia              3196      4047       851   26.6%
iShares MSCI ETF Canada               7965       9857    1892    23.7%
iShares MSCI ETF Italy                     6175       7382    1207    19.5%
iShares MSCI ETF Japan                  6203       8106    1903    30.6%
iShares MSCI ETFMalaysia                 563         375    -188   -37.4%
iShares MSCI ETF Singapore            6189       7117     928    14.9%
iShares MSCI ETF Taiwan                 2596       4501    1905    73.3%
iShares MSCI ETF UK                       6201       6470      269      4.3%
iShares MSCI ETF China                  4066        5121    1055    25.9%

The $80,000 invested is now worth $109,667, a gain of $29,667 or a 37.08% gain over five years.  This works out at a 7.41% per annum gain before dividends which WERE NOT reinvested.

I failed to keep an accurate track of dividends received, but they have been running in the region of 2% to 3% per annum so the annual return over the past five years have been around 9.4% to 10.4%.

Though this is not as dramatic an increase as we have seen in some US market indices, I’m happy with the results because the Pifolio is based on the reality that value controls market prices in the long term.

If that return were randomly distributed, it would be hard for most investors to lose over the long term.  The reason so few win and so many lose is because stock price increases and drops are not randomly distributed.  There are long time-periods in which valuations steadily rise (with small drops mixed in).  There are also periods of sharp corrections.  During these times, when markets may be volatile, investors tend to panic and liquidate at the worst possible time.

The Pifolio over the past five years has been as steady as can be in such turbulent times, was incredibly diversified for safety and provided decent returns while locking in extra value potential.

Why the Top Value Portfolio has extra potential now.

There are three factors that give extra potential to the Pifolio now.

#1: The U.S. dollar has been in decline.  This is usually bullish for global risk assets and every investment in the Pifolio is currently in non USA markets.

#2: Value stocks have under performed their growth counterparts for 13 consecutive years.  Mean-reversion (value investments now over performing) is probable well into 2021 given the accelerating under performance since last December.

#3: Global major and emerging markets are drowning in net fund flows in late 2020. According to Bank of America, a record $89 billion flowed into stock funds over three weeks up to November 20, 2020.

These three factors could cause the Top Value Pifolio to rise dramatically in 2021.

We should not count on extra ordinary returns. We need to be realistic… but logic and math are on our side.

Most humans are not realistic!  Humans have a bias against risk that creates a performance gap.

We created Pi to face this fact and prepare for it.

The Pifolio above invests in 19 country ETFs.  These ETFs represent investments in hundreds of shares in the Top Value Markets.  There are few ways to gain greater safety though diversification. 

No one knows when the super heated US stock market, that is now at or near an all time high,  will slow.

What we do know is the value of the US market is low, compared to its history and to other stock markets around the world.

The table below shows how the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to three alternatives at the end of December 2020 based on selected valuation and return measures:

keppler

According to Keppler Asset Management’s analyses, the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is now undervalued by 39% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index, by 51% compared to the MSCI USA Index and by a whopping 68% compared to the MSCI World Growth Index.

The average developed market—as measured by the KAM Equally Weighted World Index—is undervalued by 29% compared to the cap. weighted MSCI World Index.

This next table below shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to three alternatives as of the end of December 2020 based on selected valuation and return measures:

keppler

According to Keppler’s analyses, the asset class Emerging Markets Equities is now undervalued by 21% compared to the MSCI World Index of the developed markets. Moreover, the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfoliois undervalued by 23% compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets (Standard) Index,by 39%compared to the MSCI World Index and by a whopping 57% compared to the MSCI EM Growth Index.

These numbers suggest that value shares will outperform Wall Street or at least US shares will under perform global shares at some time in the years ahead.

We just do not know when the shift will equalize values.

We can still see profits and growth in US shares and we will… until we won’t.

All stock markets have risk and volatility, but if you invest in the top value markets  you get the best value and creating and managing such a portfolio is easy.

This five year review shows that the Pifolio has seen steady growth and good income.

The review shows that the Pifolio has been safe.

Perhaps the biggest benefit has been the ease.  There have been no advantages to viewing this portfolio daily or even weekly.   A monthly checkup has been more than enough to keep the portfolio balanced.  There have been only a handful of changes in the Top Value market over the past five years.  This strategy of easy, long term investing stops us from getting daily jitters and most important, frees up time so we can enjoy life.

The three benefits of the Pifolio are; safety, maximum profit potential and more time to live.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 53rd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full, no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2022 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

Here is a reminder why Pi makes so much sense for us as investors. This core Pi information was presented by Michael Keppler at a value investing seminar in October 2015.

There are two documents as well as Keppler’s talk.   The first was a reprinted article of an interview with Michael in which he explained why most investors misunderstand risk.

Keppler asset management

Click here to read  Keppler’s Interview “A New Definition of Risk”

Keppler also delivered this 22 page PDF report at his speech in 2015.

Keppler asset management

Click here to read or download and print “Keppler’s 22 page “Top Value Strategy”

Keppler Video

Here is Michael Keppler’s one hour 40 minute presentation on Top Value Asset Allocation.

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com:  James Simons steps down as chairman of Renaissance Technologies

Borders Blur Opportunity


Border blindness can stop us from seeing opportunity.

border guard

Borders can be unfriendly places. Don’t let that stop you,  because we are one and there is value in the unity.

Imagine the ocean… that’s everything.  See the waves,  Those are the earth, the mountains, the valleys and plains… but they are still the ocean.  Then see the spray and the little droplets kicked up by the wind and rain.  That’s us the people, you, them and me and the other species… but we are still the ocean… all connected in this vast limitless body of water.

Sometimes though we forget the connection.

That loss of memory can be damaging.  Look what happens when part of the ocean is cut off from the whole.  It becomes nothing more than a puddle.  If not fed by a river or other source beyond the pond’s borders, it dries up, shrinks and evaporates into nothingness.

And so to do people, counties, states, provinces, countries, any group that disconnects.   They shrivel into an incestuous stagnation, dry and bereft of  vibrancy and growth.

Yet it’s too easy is it to classify people or a person by some fictional story.  Americans are this… or the British are that… or Saudis are whatever?

What is your nationality?  Do you agree with your government and the way things are in your country… or do you sometimes feel frustrated at how the nation where you were born or live has turned out?  Ever feel trapped in a country gone mad?

The majority, or at least a strong minority  of people in most countries feel exactly the same way.  They are this or that… but don’t agree with a lot of what is going on in their nation.

We are all connected individuals.

Viewing others, people or nations in too general way can lead to errors of judgement that can be expensive.

My first book published in the 1970s “Passport to International Profit” threw out this idea of Border Blindness.

It said:  Borders are transcended by almost all human emotions. Get a pretty Italian and handsome Irishman together and they will fall in love. Put a Mexican with a cheaper tomato next to a hungry Canadian and the Canadian will get out his loonies and buy the tomato. Put an Englishman and Frenchman in a sinking ship and they will both bail water.

The market place of humanity tramples borders. The deepest nature of our existence supports free trade and free movement of all to anywhere in the world.

Modern communications and transportation have made globalization so easy and brought us the wonder of multi cultural joys,  This is really good but this evolution also threatens the sovereignty of nations and they react by stiffening the borders.

Order Ecuador fresh cut Valentine Roses early to assure the color you desire and get a 10% discount.

ecuador-roses

Red roses at our house

You can have 24 fresh cut roses from Ecuador delivered to any zip code in the USA…including Alaska. (Shipping is not available to Hawaii at this time) and for a total cost after applying the “garysvalentinesgift10” discount coupon of $70.20. No additional shipping or tax fees.

The “garysvalentinegift10” code at checkout will give you a 10% discount and there will be NO shipping or handling fee or tax.

All Ecuador Valentine rose orders will be scheduled for delivery on or before February 12, 2021. You have the option to deliver earlier in the week.

To order, click on the Ecuador USA Rose website (The home of “The Rose Guy) here.

Expect stiffer borders.

The disruptive evolution we are seeing is enough to cause those who do not keep up to react.  The pandemic adds to the bolstered border fuel.

Social technology inflames the existing problem as it has not yet sorted out its editing and accuracy issues.

We live in a perfect world but we often cannot see that perfection and this leads to anger, jealousy, greed, all the human emotions that stifle the benefits of globalization.

The innovations that help humanity expand also help the forces that dry us up.  Thus we have excessive surveillance, loss of privacy and increased hassles at border crossings.

Our son has his family isolated in a country village in the Czech Republic.  He had to take a short trip back to the UK and was caught out when the new strain of virus caused the shut down all flights from the UK back to the CR.  This is a shot of the paper work he had to complete just to drive back and cross three borders.

borders

Starting at the Chunnel

borders

Under the English Channel

borders

A long night on French autoroutes and German Autobahnen.

borders

Finally in the Czech Republic

borders

All that work because the simple technology (aka an airplane) has been closed to borders.

What to do?

When most of society is headed in the wrong direction, we can profit by recognizing the error and moving the opposite direction.

First, don’t let borders overly flavor what you feel about each and every person you meet.  There are positive and negative terminals everywhere and in every thing.  Borders simply amplify both.  There are not really Canadians, Mexican, British or whatever.  Those tags are a story.

Yes they are unique human beings, trapped in a nationality they may or may not like.  The story that defines (or confines) may have an effect on how they act.  That’s fine to know, but understand that they are all part of the ocean and they have something to offer.  They also  respond to love, care and respect.

I work every day not to blind myself to that fact.

Be global!

Currently the Top Value Portfolio of country ETFs I invest in, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom (at equal weights) is selling for 1.42 times book value compared to the US market selling at 4.39 times book.  That portfolio also pays a 2.94% dividend compared to the US average of 1.45%.

keppler

According to the analyses of Keppler Asset Management, that developed markets top value portfolio is now undervalued by 39% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index, by 51% compared to the MSCI USA Index and by a whopping 68% compared to the MSCI World Growth Index.

I do not let borders determine my investments, but look insetad to value.

Look beyond the fiction of borders and you’ll find opportunity greater than before.

Gary

Profitable Investing Made EZ

There are only three steps to sustained, safe profits in investing.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value professional investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make professional investing EZ because you become smarter than the smartest man in the world.

newton

Sir Issac Newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market. 

Newton said: “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.”

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence in seeking value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why my Purposeful investing course (Pi) is based around mathematicians not economists.

I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline in our Pi course.

Use math and time, not emotion and timing to protect your wealth.

We need a strategy so our savings, investments & income are sufficient for a full lifetime which can be much longer than statistics suggest.  That’s really good to know but longer life expectancy is expected to worsen the shortfall in Social Security by 11 percent over the next 75 years.

What will a longer, active life do to our savings and budgets?

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed that some people, such as Warren Buffett, have a three point good value strategy that increases their wealth again and again.

What are the three tactics of this strategy?

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

A research paper that studied Warren Buffet’s investing strategy was published at Yale University’s website. This research shows that the stocks he chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power so you can let time do its work.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffet strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third, limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses value, time and leverage to buy and hold “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He uses limited leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

You can learn how to use this type of three point strategy with the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  This course is based on my 50 years of global investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Pi Model Portfolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it is based entirely on good math and uses time to take advantage of value.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Listen to Michael Keppler explain his philosophy for 6 minutes and 43 seconds here.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2020.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the online Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio update lessons throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $99 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Best Value Emerging Market


What do we do when stock markets seem too  high, but there is nowhere else to invest?

One answer is to aggressively seek good value markets. Last week  a message “Best Value  Stock Market” showed why Austria is the best value developed stock market in the world.

How about  emerging markets?

One benefit of our Purposeful Investing Course subscription are updates of the Keppler Asset Management’s Good Value Emerging Country Selection Strategies.  

Here is the update for the December 2020 emerging markets selections.

Emerging market equities often have high performance and had their highest monthly returns since July this year.

On average, i.e. equally weighted, emerging markets had their highest monthly return—plus 12.7 %—since December 1993, when they returned 18.7%.

Year-to-date, the MSCI Emerging Market  (EM) Index is up 10.2% in US dollars and 3.4% in euros.

All twenty-six markets included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced in November 2020.

Greece was up (+27.3%), Poland and Thailand were both up 21.2%) for the month.

Year-to-date,  China  is up +24.8 %, Taiwan +21.3% and Korea 18.7%.

The Top Value emerging markets are Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Korea,Malaysia, Mexico, Russia and Taiwan.

According to the analyses, of Keppler Asset Management,  an equally weighted combination of these most attractively valued markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

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Screen Shot 2020-12-12 at 9.40.34 AM

The best value markets on  a price-to-book basis are Pakistan (0.78), Turkey  (0.93), Russia (0.97) and Columbia (1.04).

Pakistan and Turkey however are not top value markets according to the Keppler’s analysis above.

Also due to due to liquidity issues and geopolitical risks, Keppler assigns lower than equal weights to smaller markets in the portfolios they advise.

Personally, due to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership that links 15 Asian and Pacific countries, I  like Korea. China is the central partner with 14 other countries across the Asia Pacific region in a huge free trade deal nearly a decade in the making.    The  agreement connects 15 countries and 2.2 billion people, or nearly 30% of the world’s population

Yet the Korean MSCI, still has a very low price-to-book of 1.18.

One easy way to invest in the Korean market is with the iShares MSCI Korean ETF (symbol EWY.  The chart below from www.finance.yahoo.com shows the 5 year performance of this fund.

www.fiancne.yahoo.com

We seem to  be in  an  era where many of the reliable relationship that rule the pricing in stock markets are not  reliable.   One way to  survive this dilemma as investors is to look  for value and  economic shifts such as we see in  the Korean market.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

A model portfolio that dates back to 1969 has dramatically outperformed almost every stock market in the world.

keppler

A hundred US dollars invested in that portfolio in 1969 is now worth $44833 compared to $100 invested in an equity weighted world index being worth $11,548.

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2020.   There have been no changes since.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: China, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Germany (symbol EWG) is a Country Index ETF  that tracks the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index. The fund is at all times invested at least 80% of its assets in the securities of its underlying index that primarily consists of all the large-and mid-capitalization companies traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market in our Pifolio.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing. Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades. This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

keppler

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Save $102 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years,  right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $99 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

Best Paying Developed Stock Market


How do we invest when every experience tells us that stock markets are upside down?

One answer is to aggressively seek good value markets. Yesterday’s  message “Best Value  Stock Market” showed why Austria is the best value developed stock market in the world.

Another way to invest in hyper markets is to  seek the best paying stock markets.

Screen Shot 2020-12-12 at 9.40.00 AM

Screen Shot 2020-12-12 at 9.32.15 AM

The best paying stock market in the world is Portugal with an average dividend of  4.53%.   However this market has been known for its volatility.

The chart below from the MSCI website shows that in the last 15 years it has dramatically underperformed world markets and that it has only overperformed world markets three times in that decade and a half.

Plus the Portuguese market is not a good value market as it is selling at a high 2.2 price-to-book and outrageous 50.7 PE ratio.

The good value Singapore market  looks better.

The Singapore market pays over a 4% average dividend (4.10%) and is the second best value of all developed markets based on price-to-book and PE ratios.

Go with Singapore for high income (where else can you get 4% on your money)  and a good change of capital appreciation.

msci

The chart above shows the easy-to-buy iShares MSCI Singapore ETF (symbol EWS).

Singapore has good economic news that impacts a third of the World’s population  as well.

Singapore belongs to the  15 country Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. China is the central partner with 14 other countries across the Asia Pacific region in a huge free trade deal nearly a decade in the making.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership spans 15 countries and 2.2 billion people, or nearly 30% of the world’s population, according to a joint statement released by the nations on Sunday, when the deal was signed. Their combined GDP totals roughly $26 trillion and they account for nearly 28% of global trade based on 2019 data.

The deal includes several of the region’s heaviest economic hitters aside from China, including Japan and South Korea. New Zealand and Australia are also partners, as are Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam in Southeast Asia.

 

The 15 countries are:
Australia
Brunei
Cambodia
China
Indonesia
Japan
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
New Zealand
Philippines
Singapore
South Korea
Thailand
Vietnam

In topsy turvy times… when uncertainty is great, relentless searches for value and high income are  two of the easiest and most effective tools for protecting wealth and savings.

Both searches lead us to  Singapore at this time.

Gary

Add Safety, Profit & Get Paid Double

The next four years will be a period of  low stock growth, especially in the US stock markets.

This is based on an in depth analysis by Keppler Asset Management Company in New York using a huge amount of information that includes every stock in 46 stock markets around the world.  I doubt there are few sources of information that contain so much market data at one time.  Our Purposeful Investing Course subscribers look at this data every month.

Last year’s projections showed that the four years ahead would produce good stock market results.  Then 2020 had such incredible growth in markets that I want to zero in on several important points that relate to the next four years of global stock market performance.

First point: Keppler’s Total Return Projections made since 1994 have been very accurate.

The chart below shows the entire real-time forecasting history for the KAM Equally Weighted World Index, starting at the end of 1993.

keppler

This last quarter the actual KAM Equally Weighted World Index is only 3.4% below the intrinsic value that Keppler forecast in December 2016.

Second Point: Keppler now projects a much lower return over the next three to five years.

This drop in projected results has little to do with politics.  It’s all about value!  Due to such a sharp rise in each major market last quarter, the projection for every national, index or strategy return projection is now down by several percentage points compared to the September 2020 projection quarter-end last year.  The markets shot up so fast they are simply not such good value now.

The current (December 31, 2020) projection is that the KAM Equally Weighted World Index will see a compound annual total return estimate of 2.6% in local currencies.  That projection is way down from the projection of 6.1% just three months ago.

The upper-band estimate implies a compound annual total return of 7.4% (down from 11.1% three months ago), while the lower-band estimate of  indicates a compound annual total return of minus 3.0% (down from positive 0.4% last quarter).

In other words global markets are overheated and won’t see significant growth in the three to five years ahead.

Third point: The US market will see the worst results of all the major markets into 2024.

Keppler’s projections show negative 3-5 year total returns for the MSCI USA Index for the first time since 2000.

keppler

Fourth Point: The Top Value Markets will do best, Asia and Europe will be the best developed markets from now to 2024.

World growth will be stunted by the low US results.  Asia and Europe will catch up with the terrific results in the US over the past 5 years.

The average developed market—as measured by the KAM Equally Weighted World Index—is now under-valued by 29% vs. the cap-weighted MSCI World Index, based on traditional valuation measures..

The Top Value Markets are now undervalued by 39% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index and are undervalued 51% compared to the MSCI USA Index.

Keep an eye out for any significant correction in global stock markets.  If so this will be a good time to add to the Pifolio.

The chart below shows the last 26 years of real-time forecasting by the global equity analyst we track to make our portfolio decisions.

More importantly look for markets that pay the highest income now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not at this time.

In 2020 many equities paid a higher yield than bonds.

As of February 2021, according to Ycharts.com, (1)  AA bond yields are at 1.57%.

bond yields

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.60% as of February 2021 .  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.57% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact US shares pay one of the lousiest average yields of the 46 stock markets we, via Keppler, monitor around the world.

Eight solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay more than double the average US yield.  They pay  2.89% compared to the US yield of 1.68%.

keppler

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years.

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only five times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course uses Keppler analytics to track 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Pi teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for most stock markets around the world.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of higher performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) Ycharts.com corporate bond yields

Asian Stock Breakaway


Look to Asia for profit.

Asian stocks are outperforming US stocks by the biggest margin in ten years.

That’s relevant because the S&P 500 Index has blown away every region over the past decade with a 13.74% annualized return compared to just 1.01% per annum for the MSCI EAFE  (Europe, Asia, Far East) Index (ex.USA), 2.35% annually for MSCI Pacific and a lowly 0.31% per year for MSCI Europe Index.

pixabay.com

Asian shares are rising

It worth noting that three of the eight Keppler Top Value Developed Markets that we track in  our Purposeful Investing (Pi) Course are in Asia; Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan.

keppler

Four of the ten Keppler Top Value Emerging Markets are also in Asia; China, Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

keppler

Due to the size of China’s economy, I treat China as a developed market in my 70% (developed) 30% (emerging) market weighting and that over weighting has added a boost in my portfolio.

When planning your global diversification of assets abroad for the next four years, first and foremost think value…  then add emphasis to finding good value investments in Asia.

Gary

Add Safety, Profit & Get Paid Double

The next four years will be a period of  low stock growth, especially in the US stock markets.

This is based on an in depth analysis by Keppler Asset Management Company in New York using a huge amount of information that includes every stock in 46 stock markets around the world.  I doubt there are few sources of information that contain so much market data at one time.  Our Purposeful Investing Course subscribers look at this data every month.

Last year’s projections showed that the four years ahead would produce good stock market results.  Then 2020 had such incredible growth in markets that I want to zero in on several important points that relate to the next four years of global stock market performance.

First point: Keppler’s Total Return Projections made since 1994 have been very accurate.

The chart below shows the entire real-time forecasting history for the KAM Equally Weighted World Index, starting at the end of 1993.

keppler

This last quarter the actual KAM Equally Weighted World Index is only 3.4% below the intrinsic value that Keppler forecast in December 2016.

Second Point: Keppler now projects a much lower return over the next three to five years.

This drop in projected results has little to do with politics.  It’s all about value!  Due to such a sharp rise in each major market last quarter, the projection for every national, index or strategy return projection is now down by several percentage points compared to the September 2020 projection quarter-end last year.  The markets shot up so fast they are simply not such good value now.

The current (December 31, 2020) projection is that the KAM Equally Weighted World Index will see a compound annual total return estimate of 2.6% in local currencies.  That projection is way down from the projection of 6.1% just three months ago.

The upper-band estimate implies a compound annual total return of 7.4% (down from 11.1% three months ago), while the lower-band estimate of  indicates a compound annual total return of minus 3.0% (down from positive 0.4% last quarter).

In other words global markets are overheated and won’t see significant growth in the three to five years ahead.

Third point: The US market will see the worst results of all the major markets into 2024.

Keppler’s projections show negative 3-5 year total returns for the MSCI USA Index for the first time since 2000.

keppler

Fourth Point: The Top Value Markets will do best, Asia and Europe will be the best developed markets from now to 2024.

World growth will be stunted by the low US results.  Asia and Europe will catch up with the terrific results in the US over the past 5 years.

The average developed market—as measured by the KAM Equally Weighted World Index—is now under-valued by 29% vs. the cap-weighted MSCI World Index, based on traditional valuation measures..

The Top Value Markets are now undervalued by 39% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index and are undervalued 51% compared to the MSCI USA Index.

Keep an eye out for any significant correction in global stock markets.  If so this will be a good time to add to the Pifolio.

The chart below shows the last 26 years of real-time forecasting by the global equity analyst we track to make our portfolio decisions.

More importantly look for markets that pay the highest income now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not at this time.

In 2020 many equities paid a higher yield than bonds.

As of February 2021, according to Ycharts.com, (1)  AA bond yields are at 1.57%.

bond yields

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.60% as of February 2021 .  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.57% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact US shares pay one of the lousiest average yields of the 46 stock markets we, via Keppler, monitor around the world.

Eight solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay more than double the average US yield.  They pay  2.89% compared to the US yield of 1.68%.

keppler

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years.

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only five times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course uses Keppler analytics to track 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Pi teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for most stock markets around the world.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of higher performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) Ycharts.com corporate bond yields

 

How Election Results Impact Stock Markets


What will the election results mean to the stock market?

If history is an accurate guide, “Not Much” is the answer to this question.

Last week we sent our Purposeful Investing (Pi) course subscribers, the November 2020 ENR Asset Management Market Outlook (1).   One key feature was some positive thoughts relating to the outcome of US election.

This issue of the Outlook says:   For investors worried about how the stock market will fare in the event of a divided government, history shows equities tend to rise regardless of which party controls government.

From 1929 through 2019, one party controlled both chambers of Congress and the presidency in 45 of those years.

The S&P 500 Index on average rose 7.45% during those years, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The index was up 30 times and down 15 times.

In the other 46 years when there was a split government, the index climbed 7.26% on average, rising 29 times, falling 16 times and remaining unchanged once;

According to Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, stocks have performed better under Democrats.

Since 1900, $10,000 invested in the Dow Jones Industrial Average only when Republicans were President would have grown to about $100,000 (4% annualized). The same $10,000 would have grown to nearly $430,000 if it were invested only when Democrats were President (6.1% annualized return).

The Outlook also upgraded Asia and emerging markets to BUY in November because Asian stocks are outperforming the United States by the most in ten years, according to Bloomberg and Rosenberg Research.

pixabay.com

Asia, where markets may be rising more

With the US stock markets exhibiting extreme volatility, we need international alternatives to balance our portfolios.

Once a quarter we send out Purposeful investing subscribers (Pi) a 52 page report prepared by Keppler Asset Management that looks at the value and performance of every emerging stock market in the world.  Here are short excerpts of the emerging markets report for the autumn of 2020.

 The report shows the values of the ten best value emerging markets.

keppler

We can compare these values to the high cost of the US and other overpriced markets.

keppler

Investing in a spread of the top value emerging markets at a price-to-book of 1.31 paid an average dividend of 3.78% compared to 1.63% from US markets.   Pus the price-to-book for  US shares is 3.96 more that three times higher than the average price-to-book for the top value emerging markets.

Plus investors who ignored overseas markets lost out!

Through September 2020, the US market was up  6.8%. The Taiwan market was up +14%, India +12.3.1%, China +12.0%,

After suffering one of their worst quarterly returns for the last thirty years in the first three months of this year, emerging markets equities recovered strongly.

Following double-digit returns in the second quarter, the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index (ND) climbed another  9.6% in US dollars.

Year-to-date, however, the MSCI EM TR Index is, in US dollars down 1.2% in the first nine months.

Among the three regional indices, Asia advanced 10.6%, while Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) gained 2.5% and Latin America was down 0.9%.

Year-to-date, Asia fared best, gaining 8.0% thanks to the good performance of China, while EMEA fell 10.5% and Latin America declined 17.4%.

Thirteen markets advanced last quarter, and also thirteen markets were down. Taiwan (+14%), India (+12.3.1%) and China (+12.0%) had the highest total returns last quarter, while Thailand (-11.9%), Hungary (-10.6%) and the Czech Republic (-8.6%) performed worst.

Year-to-date, however, only three out of the twenty-six markets included in the MSCI EM Index recorded a positive return.

The Top Value Model Portfolio gained 3.0% in US dollars last quarter.

There were no changes in Keppler’s country ratings last quarter. The Top Value Model Portfolio continues to hold ten markets—Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia and Taiwan—at equal weights.

According to Keppler’s analyses, an equally weighted combination of these most attractively valued markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.The table below shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to selected indices as of the end of September, based on important variables (current numbers for book value, 12-months trailing numbers for the other variables—no forecasts).

keppler

According to Keppler’s analyses, the asset class Emerging Markets Equities is now undervalued by 24% compared with the MSCI World Index of the developed markets.

Moreover, the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is undervalued by 28% compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets (Standard) Index, by 45% versus the MSCI World Index and by a whopping 61% compared to the MSCI EM Growth Index.

Therefore, the outlook for superior performance of emerging markets equities in general and the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio in particular, over the next three to five years, remains very favorable.

Note: Due to liquidity issues and geopolitical risks, Keppler assigns lower than equal weights to smaller markets in the portfolios they advise.

We live in a global economy and to keep our investments balanced with the world, we should keep a continual watch on value in all stock markets and look for international as well as local equity opportunity.

Gary

Add Safety, Profit & Get Paid Double

The next four years will be a period of  low stock growth, especially in the US stock markets.

This is based on an in depth analysis by Keppler Asset Management Company in New York using a huge amount of information that includes every stock in 46 stock markets around the world.  I doubt there are few sources of information that contain so much market data at one time.  Our Purposeful Investing Course subscribers look at this data every month.

Last year’s projections showed that the four years ahead would produce good stock market results.  Then 2020 had such incredible growth in markets that I want to zero in on several important points that relate to the next four years of global stock market performance.

First point: Keppler’s Total Return Projections made since 1994 have been very accurate.

The chart below shows the entire real-time forecasting history for the KAM Equally Weighted World Index, starting at the end of 1993.

keppler

This last quarter the actual KAM Equally Weighted World Index is only 3.4% below the intrinsic value that Keppler forecast in December 2016.

Second Point: Keppler now projects a much lower return over the next three to five years.

This drop in projected results has little to do with politics.  It’s all about value!  Due to such a sharp rise in each major market last quarter, the projection for every national, index or strategy return projection is now down by several percentage points compared to the September 2020 projection quarter-end last year.  The markets shot up so fast they are simply not such good value now.

The current (December 31, 2020) projection is that the KAM Equally Weighted World Index will see a compound annual total return estimate of 2.6% in local currencies.  That projection is way down from the projection of 6.1% just three months ago.

The upper-band estimate implies a compound annual total return of 7.4% (down from 11.1% three months ago), while the lower-band estimate of  indicates a compound annual total return of minus 3.0% (down from positive 0.4% last quarter).

In other words global markets are overheated and won’t see significant growth in the three to five years ahead.

Third point: The US market will see the worst results of all the major markets into 2024.

Keppler’s projections show negative 3-5 year total returns for the MSCI USA Index for the first time since 2000.

keppler

Fourth Point: The Top Value Markets will do best, Asia and Europe will be the best developed markets from now to 2024.

World growth will be stunted by the low US results.  Asia and Europe will catch up with the terrific results in the US over the past 5 years.

The average developed market—as measured by the KAM Equally Weighted World Index—is now under-valued by 29% vs. the cap-weighted MSCI World Index, based on traditional valuation measures..

The Top Value Markets are now undervalued by 39% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index and are undervalued 51% compared to the MSCI USA Index.

Keep an eye out for any significant correction in global stock markets.  If so this will be a good time to add to the Pifolio.

The chart below shows the last 26 years of real-time forecasting by the global equity analyst we track to make our portfolio decisions.

More importantly look for markets that pay the highest income now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not at this time.

In 2020 many equities paid a higher yield than bonds.

As of February 2021, according to Ycharts.com, (1)  AA bond yields are at 1.57%.

bond yields

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.60% as of February 2021 .  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.57% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact US shares pay one of the lousiest average yields of the 46 stock markets we, via Keppler, monitor around the world.

Eight solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay more than double the average US yield.  They pay  2.89% compared to the US yield of 1.68%.

keppler

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years.

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only five times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course uses Keppler analytics to track 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Pi teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for most stock markets around the world.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of higher performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) Ycharts.com corporate bond yields

Developed Market Update


With the US stock markets being so wobbly, we need alternative investments around the world.

Once a quarter we send out Purposeful Investing subscribers (Pi) a 79 page report prepared by Keppler Asset Management that looks at the value and performance of every developed stock market in the world.  Here’s a chart that’s in this quarter’s for the autumn of 2020.

keppler

The good value markets selling at an average price-to-book of 1.24 are quite a bargain compared to the US market selling at an average price of book of 3.96.

Plus investors who ignored overseas markets, last quarter, lost out!  Through September 2020, the US market was up 6.8%. Th Danish market was up +20.2%.  New Zealand was up +8.1%.  In addition while the US market paid an average  1.63% dividend, the Top Value markets paid an average 3.44% dividend.

In connection with the Coronavirus outbreak in the first three months 2020, developed markets equities suffered their worst quarterly decline of the last fifty years. Then, in the second quarter they recovered strongly with total returns in the high teens.

In the third quarter, the cap-weighted MSCI World Total Return Index (ND) advanced 7.9% in US dollars.

Twelve markets advanced last quarter and eleven markets declined.

Denmark (+10.3%), Sweden (+10.1%)and Ireland (+9.7%) were up most, while Austria (-8.8%), Spain (-7.8 %) and Portugal (-7.5%) were the biggest losers.

Despite the strong rally in the second and third quarters, seventeen markets were still down and only six markets advanced year-to-date.

Denmark (+20.2%), New Zealand (+8.1%) and the U.S. (+6.8%) performed best year-to-date, while Austria (-37.2%), Spain (-28.6%) and Belgium (-25.6%) came in last.

There were no changes in the best value developed market ratings last quarter. The Top Value Model Portfolio now holds the eight  “Buy”-rated markets Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom at equal weights.

According to the analyses of Keppler Asset management, an equally weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance. The chart below shows the entire real-time forecasting history for the KAM Equally Weighted World Index, starting at the end of 1993.

keppler

The current level is 5.8% above the lower forecast band, which Keppler forecast four years ago. In the past, entry levels below or around the lower valuation band have always yielded positive returns three to five years later.

Keppler’s implicit three-to-five-year projection places the KAM Equally Weighted World Index rising for a compound annual total return estimate of 6.1 % in local currencies.

The upper-band estimate implies a compound annual total return of 11.1%, while the lower-band estimate indicates a compound annual total return of only 0.4%.

keppler

While the average developed market—as measured by the KAM Equally Weighted World Index—is now under-valued by 31% vs. the cap-weighted MSCI World Index, based on traditional valuation measures, the Top Value Markets are now undervalued by 41% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index, by 53% compared to the MSCI USA Index and by a whopping 68% compared to the MSCI World Growth Index.

We live in a global economy and to keep our investments balanced with the world, we should keep a continual watch on global value and international opportunity.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

A model portfolio that dates back to 1969 has dramatically outperformed almost every stock market in the world.

keppler

A hundred US dollars invested in that portfolio in 1969 is now worth $44833 compared to $100 invested in an equity weighted world index being worth $11,548.

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2020.   There have been no changes since.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: China, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Germany (symbol EWG) is a Country Index ETF  that tracks the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index. The fund is at all times invested at least 80% of its assets in the securities of its underlying index that primarily consists of all the large-and mid-capitalization companies traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market in our Pifolio.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing. Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades. This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

keppler

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Save $102 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years,  right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $99 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary