Tag Archive | "value"

The Value of Security and Fun


Do you feel less secure in 2020?

Are you having less fun… satisfaction…. fulfillment?

Have events of this year taken you by surprise?  Are you more doubtful… increasingly confused?

If you’re like me… there were a lot of yes answers to the questions above.

Never fear!

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Were you surprised by the shortage of toilet paper and paper towels and how the stock market fell and then rose and is falling again (or is it by today)?

It was recently suggested to me that the phrase “2020” would become a colloquial verb, meaning “negative turbulence”.   When there’s talk about many problems taking place, you might hear the reply… “don’t 2020 me”.

Or maybe “2020” adjective, a synonym for “unsettled” “surprising” or “unknown”.

Certainly many readers have sent me notes similar to this one I received last week.

Gary, I have officially stopped stock trading as this year has been a complete disaster for me.

After 22 years investing in the market, I feel completely lost now.

Nothing makes sense to me and I am so afraid of another sharp correction that I don’t dare to hold anything over night. I’ve completely lost all appetite for risk. This has led to a ton of missed opportunities and quick losses.

I still feel more comfortable holding cash. In any case, mentally, it’s just not working for me in the market.

I will have a lot of freed up mental space to start focusing solely on my online – among a few other fun projects.

My thinking was ahead of this reader.  I came to a similar conclusion but over half a decade ago.

Two events, low interest rates and the abandonment of Federal fiscal responsibility, had enough impact on stock markets that I felt my 50 years of equity trading experience was no longer applicable enough.

Only one factor made sense to me… value.   I decided to let price-to-book, P/E ratios and average dividend yields of stock markets be my value guide.

Stock markets acted so contrary to what experience taught me, that when I held specific shares, I no longer felt secure.

Feeling secure is a really important part of  investing because when you invest without an anchor of value, a belief or purpose, you’re always running scared.  The human trait of “Risk Aversion” will almost always lead to loss.

If you are not feeling secure and if you are not enjoying the process, you should not be trading stocks.

However, long term, holding cash is not a good solution either!  Government deficits are at all time highs and the US debt is as high as at the end of WWII.

This is almost a guarantee of serious inflation.  The Feds new approach to maintain 2% inflation on average over a span of years, so that high inflation will later be corrected by low inflation is simply a stall aimed at sucking in gullible investors for a few extra years.

Do not believe the promise that high inflation will be corrected by low inflation in future years.

The answer to this dilemma is to invest in what you know and enjoy.  Make your investments based on value that you understand enough so you feel secure.

This conclusion led me to invest more strongly in real estate, because I know and enjoy the process.  I feel more secure investing in a property I can see and understand more than a stock.

For my equity investments, I set up a Good Value Equity Market portfolio I call a “Pifolio”…  my Purposeful Investments create my Pifolio.

That Pifolio is invested 70% in Country ETFs that hold equities in the best value developed stock markets around the world.

There are eight top value markets shown below.  For example the price to book of the Singapore stock market (based on its MSCI Index) is 1.00.  You can buy a mix of the Singapore stock market at book value.   In comparison, the cost of the US stock market is 4.11 times book value.   In other words Singapore investments are selling for a quarter of US stocks.

Plus Singapore shares pay an average dividend of 4.66% compared to 1.56% for the US market.

Here are the developed markets as of September 1st, 2020.

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The remaining 30% of my Pifolio is invested in the best value emerging markets.

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The indices of these markets are a much better value than US indices.

This emphasis on value has given me an added feel of security as well as a solid return since 2015.

The 70/30 Pifolio has not been as profitable in 2020 as investing in shares like Apple, Google, Amazon and other high tech shares that have pushed the S&P 500 Index to all time highs.   Yet I still feel secure and safe based on the incredible values of the shares I hold.

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What the rest of this year (and the flu season) will bring and how we’ll fare after the election into 2021, I do not know.

What I do know is that value investing takes very little time and is so well diversified and based on such immutable principles that I feel secure.  I may not (or might) have the highest return short term, but I do have the best sleep at night!

Plus statistics suggest that holding this type of portfolio generates the highest long term return.

The value approach is easy and leaves me time to live a rich life.  In the past five years there have only been a half dozen trades based on changing market values.  This gives me time to focus more on my family, writing and real estate, all the most important parts of my life that are fun and fulfilling for me.

Gary

Add Safety & Get Paid 154% More

Get paid more now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not right now.

This chart from the New York Times article “The Mystery of High Stock Prices” (1) shows that equities pay a higher yield than bonds.

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Most Important, Get Paid the Most Now!

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact the chart below shows that US shares pay one of the lousiest yields of the 46 stock markets we monitor around the world.

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.91%.  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.6% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Nine solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay 71% higher yield, 3.27% compared to the US yield of 1.91%.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years. 

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

In a moment, I’ll show how to push that yield to 4.07% per annum without adding additional risk.

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During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only three times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top (or neutral in the case of Canada and Australia) value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course tracks 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

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Our Pi strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

I am updating my plan to increase my average yield to as much as 4.07%.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into nine developed markets: Austria, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The average yield of these nine markets combined was 3.27% as of June 2020.  By replacing the three lowest yielding markets, Austria (.64%), Germany (1.83%)  and Japan (2.51%)  with two better yielding neutral markets Australia (4.57%) and Canada (3.54%) the average annual yield on the entire portfolio rises to 4.07%.

4.07% is 154% higher than the 1.6% you can currently earn on AA rated corporate bonds!

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) www.nytimes.com: mystery of high stock market prices

Triple the Profit – Double the Fun


I like to paint.  What do you like to do?

Would you like to turn that (your) passion into profit.

You can.   Have fun and gain triple profit.

Figure out a way to enjoy the multiple effect.

When I feel I have time, I grab my paint brushes and paint.  I like to do big stuff, like this heron at the entrance of our North Carolina house.

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These flowers in our Creek Cabin is another example.

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That artwork brings almost no financial gain… just savings from not buying art… and the joy.

There’s another type of painting I enjoy.  In fact, it’s more likely that you’ll see me with this type of paint brush, on the outside of the Creek Cabin.

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Painting exteriors, or ceilings and walls?  That’s not a high paying occupation either.

Until… we add the multiple effect and focus the job with an anchor of value.

First, let me be clear.  Merri and I find painting, cleaning and fixing things up oddly satisfying.  This is one of our hobbies.  We both come from families with real estate backgrounds and since we were kids, associated a house or apartment… clean and pretty and ready to sell or rent…  with a feeling of satisfaction fulfillment.

Pavlov at work!

This is not to suggest that you should paint or clean… of garden… or mow lawns!   The point is that there is something you gain satisfaction from, when done in the right way, can create some substantial income.

Painting might seem a poor investment of time for a writer… just painting or even scrubbing counter tops and floors.  Yet this physical activity is a great balance to the non activity of sitting behind a computer.  I can only spend so much time writing, usually four to six hours a day is enough.

There is a wonderful sense of accomplishment… immediate gratification when I paint a room or mow a lawn.

Plus the mundane becomes extremely profitable when our attention is focused on our anchor of value.

For example Merri and I took on the hobby of fixing this kitchen in one of our Mt. Dora rental houses.

Before.

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After.

kitchen

Our assistant Derek does the tile work and counter tops, but the painting, staining, cleaning and polishing are our domain.

Now again let me be clear again.  If I was in the business of flipping houses or owning and managing rentals, I would probably build a list of painters and cleaners to do these jobs.

Finding and fixing such places is not my job.  This is not my career.   This is a hobby I enjoy from beginning to end… the finding, the buying, the figuring our what to do and the cleanup.

My career is researching, writing and sending you these messages every day.

Where’s the multiple effect profit?  That house is worth many thousands of dollars more with that refurbished kitchen.

If I were to calculate my time,  I might be making $1,000 and hour… doing something that pays $15 and hour if it were work.

Let me explain how I focus my anchor of value to create the multiple effect and bring these profits with the aim of helping you spark some ideas about your anchor of value.

Start with the anchor of value.

The image below is from a Wall Street Journal article about retirement.

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Notice the similarity in this kitchen and the kitchen that we cleaned up shown above?

There are millions of kitchens like this, same cabinets, same ovens (that often still work) same design.  They were all built in the 1950s and 1960s, upgrades for the millions of WWII vets and their Baby Boomer children.

Merri and I understand these type of houses because they are identical… same hardwood floors, same cabinets, same closet doors… to the houses we grew up in.

What is the anchor?

We know this type of  house well and our anchor of value is the understanding how much people today can pay, either in a monthly mortgage payment or rent.  In the USA, for example, the typical bank limit on monthly mortgage payments is about 28 percent of your gross monthly income.  Banks generally will let a borrower devote up to 28 percent of their household income in a mortgage payment and expenses (including taxes, insurance and HOA dues).

If there are lots of families in an area who earn an average of $4,000 a month, then this will be a good market for sales or rentals at $1,000 a month.

This simple formula provides a basis from which a dependable value can be measured.   This is the science of the valuation.

Using this approach, years ago, Merri and I have been able to spot dozens of contrasts, distortions & trends in real estate value, in many places, Hong Kong, Fiji and London, then the Isle of Man, Naples Florida, Ashe County North Carolina, Dominican Republic and Ecuador.  This approach eventually led Merri and me to invest in Smalltown USA in Mount Dora, Florida.

Our passion of fixing up adds appeal into the mix.  This appeal creates the multiple effect.

Sometimes an investment can be a really good value, but a hard sell.  The best investments are underpinned by appealing good value products and services.

Investing in what you know (and  enjoy) helps you understand appeal and makes it easier to mesh the art and the science of valuation.

Our strategy is to buy houses built in the 1960s and 1970s that need to be cleaned, painted, landscaped and light rejuvenation, that appeal to us and which have a reasonable potential to return a decent income (and likely appreciate) based on rent or mortgage in the $1,200 a month range.

Here’s where the multiple effect comes in.

The cleanup, painting etc. does not bring more rent, but does make the property easier to rent and also increases the capital value.

We like to paint, but painting in general does not create much profit, until it is mixed in with anchors of value and improved appeal.

Have fun and triple your profits.  There is a synchronicity that comes when you are enjoying a process and knowing you’ll profit from the process as well.  Somehow the activity is more enjoyable and the likelihood of profit higher.

Look for an anchor of value you understand.  It can be anything you like, cars, boats or whatever.  A friend of mine loves to fix antique clocks.  Look for ways that you can do something you love that increases value and appeal while you are having fun.

Gary

Live Better and Be Free – 5 Global Earning Experiences

Here are 5 global income experiences and 7 business secrets that can help you live well and free anywhere despite the pandemic.

I began my international business over 50 years ago and have been creating and running international micro businesses since.

During that time my wife, Merri, and I have been able to live, work and earn all over the world… literally anywhere we wanted because of seven secrets we gained which we share here with you.  We have been blessed with global earning experiences that helped us make millions… but were also fun, such as with British Lordships.

See how this one micro business helped us rub elbows with British Royalty.

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One of Merri’s businesses that worked with British Royalty was featured in Doonesbury.

Global Earning Experience #1:  Lepers.  Our micro businesses have been fulfilling.  Merri started her international business in her 20s (long before she knew me) importing Italian clocks to the USA.  This earned so much ($80,000 in the first year) that she created other micro businesses helping orphans in the Yucatan and Haitian lepers (at the Albert Schweitzer Hospital) produce crafts she sold for them in the USA.

Excellent income ($80,000 in the 1970s was a lot of cash)…  incredible contacts… working with Dr. Larimer and Gwen Mellon who created the Albert Schweitzer Hospital in Haiti… and enormous satisfaction.  Merri still cries over 40 years later when she tries to speak of the gratitude of the lepers and her time and life in Haiti.

Plus she gained lessons that allowed her to live and earn… in many places and many ways.

Then we got together.

Global Earning Experience #2:  Lords.  Another of Merri’s ideas (in the mid 1980s) was to broker British titles to wealthy Americans.  We made a ton from that… even gained 15 minutes of fame when Gary Trudeau learned about this business and immortalized it by having B.D. Zonker buy a title!

What fun… profitable, plus stimulating, meeting and working with the Blue Bloods of Britain… visiting their castles… invited to their events and affairs.

Before I get ahead of myself, may I ask you a question?

 

Would you enjoy living in two or even more places wherever and whenever you choose?  Would you be happier with more freedom, lack of debt, and a life of riches, adventure and fulfillment?  Would you be glad to feel confident that you can discover interesting and fun business ideas again and again that not only bring in extra income but also help the poor and improve the environment?

If so then read on… because… Merri and I have led that lifestyle for decades and can show you how to live it too.

The key is to earn from home offices.   They are part of a micro business secret and you’ll see why have two home offices (and using two cars in business) can save thousands in taxes.

You can also enjoy such a lifestyle because after years of search, I found business secrets that you can use and enjoy.

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Waterfall at our North Carolina Farm.  See enjoyable benefits of a micro business in water.

Global Earning Experience #3: Hospitality.  Here’s a hotel we owned and operated in Ecuador.  Once we sold this we joined the sharing economy and began offering rentals in our North Carolina cabins through AIRBNB and houses in Florida.  We became designated super hosts within months and added thousands of extra dollars to our income every month.

Caring is just one example of how to live anywhere and earn, especially now that the pandemic will change how people vacation.

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Having a variety of places to live is part of one of the secrets on how to earn more, have a better life with more fun, adventure and greater freedom.

Global Earning Experience #4:  Import-Export.   Here I am at our Florida house showing clients how to import.

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I was wearing a hand tailored, made to order, high quality wool suit from Ecuador that could be imported into the US for as little as $135 .  Plus that Panama hat was made in Ecuador.  This is odd but true, all genuine Panama hats are made in Ecuador.  We imported Ecuador roses year round as well, all from one of our tax deductible US home office.

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The secrets we’ll share below are not about how to buy suits or flowers though.   The secrets show ways to make money (while helping others) marketing products and services wherever you are and much more…. globally.

Global Earning Experience #5:  Green Produce.   We have an orange grove and lake at our Florida home and

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are among the first to test new organic ways to make citrus farming better for the environment and the consumer.  In North Carolina we cultivate Wild American Ginseng as well as aquafarm.

These are just a few of the business experiences that can help you have the freedom to earn globally.  They are shared in our emailed correspondence course that you can now have FREE.

The course teaches a system based on seven secrets so powerful that it creates money for you regardless of where you are:  in town, out of the country, traveling or even in places as remote as we live.

These secrets have worked for us in real estate… titles… tours… agriculture… clothing… hospitality… alternative health…  spirituality… printing… publishing and art businesses for Merri and me all over the world.

Merri and I have created a special program we call “Live Well and Free Anywhere” that makes it possible for you to enjoy extra income doing something you love.  You can gain full or part time and enjoy excellent profits as you have fun and do something good in the world.

My search stumbled on the fact that most millionaires make their money in business.  This discovery led to a study of rich businesses, ones that generate everlasting wealth.  Here are three of seven secrets we share in our program that we learned and have used in our  micro businesses:

Secret #1: They must enjoy the multiple effect.  A product once created must produce profits again and again, almost on a never-ending basis.  Each investment made needs to make huge returns.

Secret #2: They need to be greater than their owner’s time.  They must produce income even when the owner doesn’t put in day-to-day effort. You may already be wealthy or earning a high income.  You may not even need another business or extra income, but some day you might.  One surgeon explained it this way.  “I am making a fortune because peoples’ lives are in my hands.  Once my hands are no longer steady, my income stops.   My entire financial well being will then be in someone else’s hands!”

Secret #3: These money making systems should be enjoyable and fun.  Sadly most people make money for the sake of making money.  Many spend their lives working, just to have a few precious hours having fun.  The most important fact about making and keeping wealth is that those who were richest absolutely love what they were doing.  Money is of secondary importance to their effort.  And as things are, this means they actually ended up making more money.

These secrets created a fantastic way to make money with my own international micro business doing what I love!

You too can have everlasting wealth by turning your passion into profit.

You too can have the freedom to do what you love from any place you like, even operating (actually preferably) from your bedroom, dining room or den if you wish.

What do you love? Rare cars?  You can make a fortune creating a business around them.  Do you prefer fine art? Or do you love beautiful jewelry, coins, gems, real estate, furs, model railways, dolls, scientific equipment, war memorabilia, old and rare books, or whatever?  Do you prefer social subjects rather than objects?

Are you concerned with the environment or humanitarian problems, with crimes, war or poverty?  Would you like to help wipe these social problems out in the course of your business?

Are you a golfer? Do you love to travel? Why not make all kinds of money in a global business related to golf?

Would you like to help the world be a more spiritual place, help people get along better together?  You can do something good for the world, increase your income and live wherever you please in the process!

Whatever your passion you can learn how to earn by creating a micro business based on it.

Take fishing, for example.

I am no great aquafarmer, but the numbers and lifestyle work on a small scale.  We pay about $3.50 a pound to stock the fish, they double, triple, even quadruple in size and we sell them at a local butcher shoppe for a modest profit.   This is not a big deal, but does generate income, helps attract guests to stay in our rental cabins, puts some great trout dinners on our table and is a thoroughly enjoyable part of my daily labor.  I need this to counter balance sitting in front of a computer.

Over a couple of months the fish grow… a lot.

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Millions of people love fishing but don’t have a pond.  This does not mean they cannot be involved in fishing.  Here are just a few of many ways that others have profitably matched this passion with profit.

Two of my friends, John and Lou, grew up near me in the Oregon mountains.  They were outdoor adventure types and moved to Canada, where they homesteaded 1,200 acres on a trout-filled lake in mid British Columbia.  They built a fishing camp that attracts fisherman from around the world.

Duncan Kinderman on the other hand loved fishing and castles.  He bought a castle on the River Tay, a great Scottish salmon river, and offered time shares for fisherman from Britain, Europe and the US.

Another entrepreneur I know was from Montana.  His skills were in marketing so he sold fishing trips for fishing camps.  He attended rod and gun exhibitions, met owners of these camps and arranged to sell their fishing trips to the US, Argentina and even in Russia to fisherman around the world.

Ralph Kylloe on the other hand loved fishing and photography so he created the book, “Fishing Camps”, which was published by Gibbs Smith publisher. This allowed Ralph to travel across the country enjoying fishing camps as he photographed and wrote.

Steve Ambrose, another friend of ours, had family commitments at home so he set up a bass fishing business in Florida that served Americans, Germans, Canadian, Dutch and Belgians.  Later as his children grew, he used his client base to arrange fishing trips in Argentina.

Each of these people had provincial backgrounds and differed in age, situation and skills.  Their common link, the love of fishing, led each to a global micro business.  Each was able to blend a unique nature and set of skills to develop a global business that surrounded them with fun, like minded fishing souls.

There is such an abundance of opportunity that Merri and I have created this program to help you have your own micro business that can be managed almost anywhere.  This program is unique because Merri and I are unique.  We started our global business together.  Since we’re almost recluses, we decided to do the whole business by ourselves… thus we create micro businesses that do not require large staffs.

We began working at home.  Today, though we have tens of thousands of buyers and have made millions, we still work at home on our remote farms and employ only a few people to help.

You’ll learn how to turn advertising dollars into a fortune.  You’ll learn how to create your own ads and when to use the internet… search engines… pay per click… classifieds, space ads, direct mail or word of mouth… even flea markets and roadside stands in some cases.

See how to build a PR list and social business network on the World Wide Web to gain thousands of dollars in free publicity.  I even share my most secret results on my marketing so you will know why sometimes you sell more units of a product at $49 instead of $29.

Learn how one couple used ads about retirement to supplement their retirement income and received free trips all over the world.

Learn how we have made money over the Internet (specific details, specific experiences, hard earned knowledge over the last 13 years!)  With an inexpensive computer you can easily run a business from home and still have tons of time left over – even if you are computer challenged.  Merri and I have certainly proven this.  We were one of the first to run a successful website and still rank high today even with millions of competitors.  The secrets in the course include a step-by-step approach.

Merri and I with our webmaster, David Cross, were leaders in beginning internet micros businesses and have sold millions over the web.  You gain ways to earn global income over the net from that experience as well.

Business people or professionals who want to add an extra profit center to their business or who want to change their business entirely will benefit.  Those who want more control over their career can profit.  Plus those who love global travel and want to turn their trips into profitable tax deductions!

Even older entrepreneurs are taking advantage of technology.  One of our friends and clients, Mickey E., was a 72 year old real estate broker, when she began a small global business.  With just a computer and internet, she created publications that attracted English real estate buyers.  This allowed her to become a top sales person in the biggest real estate firm (selling over a billion dollars of real estate a year) in town.  She later used the tactics she learned to move to Ecuador (in here late 70s) and start a micro business there.

This course is also for couples who want their own business or who want to have a business together or a family business.

This is the perfect course for those who can no longer find employment, who are looking for ways to earn abroad and who wish to retire and supplement their income.

Whether you are retired, an investor, chiropractor, doctor, dentist, professional or already own your own business, this offers another way to make money, to turn your passion into profit. We guarantee that we have shared all we know to help you start and run your own international business.  Enjoy and live a life of following your Passion to Profit… through an International Business.

The course is so complete Merri and I extend our “no fooling around-complete satisfaction guarantee”.

If you are not fully satisfied in any way,  just tell us within 60 days and we’ll send you a 100% full refund with no questions asked.

Normally to order our entire “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program would cost $299.

Right now you can get this program FREE.

Currently you can join The International Club with a 50% pandemic discount.  Save $598.23 because part of club membership is the $299 Self Publishing course FREE.

I want to help you gain the experiences that Merri and I have gained living,working, investing globally and loving every minute of it.    That’s why decades ago we created the International Club so we can share everything we learn and write about.

Club members start by receiving seven workshops and courses on how to earn everywhere with home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • The course “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Self Publish”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”
  • The course “International Business Made EZ”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”

The fee for this package is normally $299.

Club members also learn ways to be be healthier and have more energy.  

Ecuador Shamans

Here I am in the deep Amazon studying with a shaman.

I have created three natural health reports based on 50 years of study with healers around the world about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Recent news about Social Security, pensions and health care shows that the US government has excessive debt today and that we as individuals need tactics to make sure, when governments, pensions and insurers weasel out of their promises, that we can take care of ourselves.

One big broken promise is Social Security and Medicare.  The most recent Social Security trustee report shows that the programs will begin to spend more than they earn within just three or four years.   The Medicare hospital-insurance trust fund, could use all its reserves by 2028.  They face insolvency over the next 20 years because Social Security runs totally out of money by 2034.

My three natural health reports help learn ways to be happier, healthier and avoid much of the Western disease management (aka healthcare) expense.

Each report is available for $19.95.  However you’ll receive all three FREE as club member and save $59.85.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad. The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of numerous Model Portfolios, called Pifolio.

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

fibonacci

Learn how the Fibonacci Spiral impacts stock markets when the are 60% up or 30% down.

There are no secrets about this portfolio except that these mathematicians ignore the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $299.

There are two more reports I’ll send about the most exciting opportunities I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become an International Club member you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the past two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip” updated in late 2018.   The report explained the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.  Now with the stock market crash this report is more valid than ever.

Save $598.23… when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program including our Self Publishing Course”.  Free.

#2: The $299 Purposeful investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”.  Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2019”.  Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.   All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report.  Free.

#7: Plus updates and other report I release in the year ahead.

These reports, courses and programs would cost $767.73.

The International Club membership is $349 so the 2020 membership normally saves $418.78.

However due to the COVID-19 Pandemic we have cut membership in half and are currently accepting the discounted membership of $174.50 today.  You save $598.23 instead!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your membership at just $99 a year rather than $349.  Your membership will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel membership at any time.

Save $598.23.  Join the International Club for just $174.5o.   Receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons through the rest of 2020 and into of 2021  at no additional fee.

Don’t miss this opportunity.  Sign up with this special offer.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $174.50

Gary

 

 

 

Utility Shifts for Profit


See three utility shifts that  have helped hundreds of our readers enjoy a better lifestyle and profit.

Turn your passion into profit. This is a nice sentiment, but how?

Starting almost 20 years ago… Merri and I explored Ecuador’s mainland from top to bottom.   This was a great adventure… hard to call work… meeting new people… seeing new places… learning… growing… expanding horizons.   There was a financial reason for this travel though.   We wanted to spot distortions where utility would change value.   We spotted five such opportunities and have written about them again and again.

The five distortions in utility were the Chone Estuary as a barrier,  Manta airport,  insufficient coastal roads and insufficient infrastructure at Quito  and Cuenca airports.

See how new utility has altered three of these distortions.

#1: New Utility north of Quito.

cotacachi-hotels

Enjoy relaxing in this open air courtyard after a long flight to Ecuador.

A new Quito Airport special can save you $100 or more.

A reader just sent this note:  We plan stay in Quito the first night, spend a day there, then head to Otavalo, Cotatacachi, and Mindo before heading over to the coast, then make our way south and then back through Cuenca to Quito. We’re 55 and 57, but still love waves and surf and have a large extended family that would enjoy a place like Montanita-I think!

My reply saved the reader hundreds of dollars and can help yo save in Ecuador as well.  I wrote:   Regarding your arrival in March, the new Quito Airport will be operational by then. This puts Quito Airport about 45 minutes closer to Cotacachi, Otavalo and our hotel.  You’ll be doing a lot of backtracking and extra expense if you go to Quito and back to Otavalo.

Numerous locals have sent me a warning… because the new airport roads to Quito are not completed. Traffic into Quito will be a mess so leave yourself a lot of time getting in, from and back out to the airport.

Without traffic backups it will be about an hour and ten minutes into Quito and the cost for a taxi $35 to $40

To go directly to Cotacachi only takes only 1:30 hours and the price $40 to $45 with a private experienced driver.

Taxis from Quito to Cotacachi are $80, so you can save this cost and avoid Quito by going directly from the new airport to  Inn Land of the Sun in Cotacachi.

We have some really good drivers from Cotacachi who will meet and greet you at the airport and bring you for ($45).  This is an alternative to avoid Quito.  Overnight in Cotacahi and if you have a day enjoy the Crafts Trail:  leather village of Cotacachi,  the Otavalo markets, the weavings of Peguche and then return to Quito.

Overnight Special.

While in Cotacachi on a tour, meet the expats there at the Cotacachi expat dinners.

You are always welcome at the Inn.

Cotacachi hotel

Rooms at…

Cotacachi hotel

Inn Land of the Sun

The menu for this week’s Cotacachi Expat Meetings Friday and Saturday, February 15-16, 2013.

Each Friday and Saturday night there is a Cotacachi expat dinner. Expats meet in the fireplace room, enjoy a meal and talk about Ecuador news.

http://www.flickr.com/phot,os/garyascott/8469915199/in/photostream

Friday, February 15.   Chicken Cordon Bleu $5.00 including service tax and a soft drink.

Screen shot 2013-02-13 at 8.12.16 AM

Saturday, February 16. Milanesia With Rice. $5.00 including service tax and a soft drink.

Pizzas and pastas also available!

Telephone.  (593) 06-2916-009 – Telephone from US 336 – 792 – 4767 – Address: García Moreno 13-67 y sucre.

See more about Inn Land of the Sun here.

#2: New Utility North of the Chone. When we arrived in Ecuador there was no bridge across the Chone. This kept land values lnorth of the Chone away from Manta airport low.  Manta Airport was being extended but there were no international flights and coastal roads were bad.  Quito Airport was scheduled to shut down (well over a decade ago) and Cuenca Airport could not accept overnight flights.

Based around these facts Merri and recommended purchasing real estate outside Manta Airport, north of the Chone and in Cotacachi the opposite side of  the new Quito Airport. Hundreds… perhaps thousands of readers have done so and they are very happy now.

Four of the changes we expected have come to fruition.

The Chone bridge was completed and land prices north of the estuary have skyrocketed.

Ecuador_Information

The new Quito Airport is opening and now real estate in Cotacachi and Otavalo can compete with Quito.

#3: New Utility on the coast.  Now a new coastal road from Manta will increase the value of real estate in San Clemente.

Author, hotelier and archeologist Patricio Tamariz recently sent this note: Gary, Good news! At a meeting recently held at the Ministry of Tourism we talked with the Mayor of Bahia de Caraquez which was at a meeting with the Ministerio de Transporte y Obras Publicas (MTOP) in charge of the construction of the Manta Bahia highway and he has said that many people from the San Clemente area went to a meeting pleading that the project of the segment (San Clemente-Bahia) and have transmitted their opinion on the impact of the highway.

So Dr. Carlos Mendoza (mayor of canton Sucre-Bahia) says that he has been told that the highway will not be done in the segment San Clemente/Bahia.

The segment Manta /San Clemente will be done, not bothering the beachfront properties.

I was told by a reporter (that interviewed the Undersecretary of the MTOP) that the requests for proposals for construction companies should begin in April. So that segment will be a reality making the trip San Clemente –Manta’s airport in about 20 minutes and Bahia –Manta 45-50 minutes (from what now is 1 hour and a half).

ecuador pacific book

You can order Partricio’s book at Aamzon.com  The Secret of Paradise, The Mysteries of the Pacific Coast of Ecuador

See a beach view condo for sale in San Clemente

Spot distortions and change in utility that can create value!

Merri and I have used this approach again and again.   We invested in London before it because the biggest financial center in Europe.  We invested in Naples, Florida before I-75 brought in the hoards.   We invested in an Ashe County NC farm and turned our passion into profit.

Gary

learnspanish

Learn Spanish in Three Days ONLINE

Instant $110 discount on the course!

The “Learn Spanish in Three Day Course” is now available online.

Read below to see why we are offering our Super Spanish course online for the first time.

Speaking Spanish is a huge benefit on its own.  You can become one of the rare North Americans who can get along in Spanish speaking countries.  You can be one of the special people who can communicate with 10 million non-English speakers in the USA.  Spanish is the second most used language in the USA.  There are more Spanish speakers than speakers of Chinese, French, German, Italian, Hawaiian, and the Native American languages combined.  According to the Census Bureau, Spanish is the primary language of nearly 50 million people in the US.  This is the largest Spanish-speaking community outside of Mexico. Only half of these speakers also speak English “very well,” and 19% do not speak Spanish at all.

You can tap into all this potential when you speak Spanish.  Yet there are more benefits.

An article in England’s leading newspaper, the Telegraph, entitled “Why learn a foreign language? Benefits of bilingualism” (1) sum up the biggest benefit of learning a second language and increased intelligence.  The article says: “Learning a foreign language is more than just a boost to your CV or handy for traveling.  It will make you smarter, more decisive and even better at English.  Physiological studies have found that speaking two or more languages is a great asset to the cognitive process.  The brains of bilingual people operate differently than single language speakers, and these differences offer several mental benefits.”

The article then explains studies that show seven cognitive advantages gained from learning a foreign language.

#1:  You become smarter
#2:  You build multitasking skills
#3:  You stave off Alzheimer’s and dementia
#4:  Your memory improves
#5:  You become more perceptive
#6:  Your decision-making skills improve
#7:  You improve your English

Does it sound impossible to learn Spanish in three days?  Yes, it is impossible when you try to learn Spanish in the old, traditional way.

Though you may choose to take more time using this course to learn Spanish, thousands of our readers have learned at our Spanish courses.

There is a scientific method of learning… proven and described in numerous best selling books that create educational jumps by making education natural, easy and fun.   This course works because it is education without stress!

This method was created and refined by the Bulgarian educational master, Georgi Lozanov, who transformed the entire Soviet educational system to such a degree that this third world country beat the USA into space.

Merri was lucky to be one of a handful of students outside of Bulgaria who were allowed to be taught this system in the early 70s.  She practiced this unique and remarkable form of education for  four decades. It was a delight!

Merri and I began integrating these techniques with other shamanic and educational tactics we had gained in our global travels and then applied them to teach Spanish in three days.

The course has been proven again and again by the thousands who have used this system.  You can read a few of the many raves we have received from delegates who have learned from the Super Thinking Spanish course we created.

Here are a few quotes from delegates of the course.

One delegate from St. Louis wrote:  Hi Gary,  Just ended forty-five years in dentistry last week, and I’m on to a new career.  What is my new career?  Still formulating, but the eye -opening,mind expanding Super-Spanish course last weekend in St. Louis surely shows me the opportunity exists to expand my horizons.

Besides having a lot of nice people to learn our new language; the methods Merri and you developed proved to be just what you said they would be.  We all and I in particular relaxed our way to new learning.  I feel so very comfortable with the basis of my new language skills that I know I will be spitting out great Spanish sentences by the time I reach Ecuador in October.  Last year I spent six weeks in Ecuador and now I plan on conversing with the people.

Today’s excerpt of your newsletter really hit home. You do what you say you will. There are no surprises or hidden sales tricks. The only tricks are beneficial to our learning.  Thank you for a wonderful experience that I was quite unable to grasp how you would pull it off.  You did, however, and I look forward to other courses that you offer, and I have absolutely no doubt they also will work beneficially.  Best regards, Denis Molloy.

Another wrote about the Super Spanish course:   Buenos Dias, here is a testimonial for Super Thinking-Super Spanish.  Please feel free to use all or part in promotions for the course.  In addition, you may give my email address to any prospect “on the fence” about enrolling.  Yesterday, in Cotacachi, Ecuador, I finished Super Spanish.  I had high expectations for the course and they were exceeded.

After three days, I can speak Spanish in complete sentences. In simple conversations, such as buying groceries or ordering a meal, I can make myself understood. I think that’s incredible!

Although I am far from the competence level of a native speaker, I feel I’ve taken a giant step forward in learning Spanish so that I can experience the people and culture of Ecuador.  The foregoing benefits would have more than justified the time and money I invested in Super Spanish.  And learning some Spanish was not the most important benefit I got from the course.

Prior to leaving the USA, I had felt for some time that the pace of life there was unhealthy for me (and for most people) and I did nothing about it.

I’ve thought about the pace issue during the course.  One of the key elements Merri Scott designed into Super Spanish is placing the student in the optimal state for learning.  In class, the past three days, I’ve been re-introduced to guided journeys and introduced to the calming effects of Baroque music (www.sundaybaroque.org).  What a blessing! I’m inclined to make one or both a daily part of my life.   Rob Christi.  Cotacachi, Ecuador

Another attendee from a course wrote:   “I took this incredible class a few weeks ago, and I would like to tell anyone that is interested, that it is an amazing three days of learning with lots of laughs included. You leave everyday wanting to learn more and are so excited to do so.

“Other Spanish classes and tutoring made us feel like it would take forever to get to the point where we could put it into practice, but this method gave us a more fluent use for everyday life almost immediately AND the confidence to use it.  It is a fantastic way to show people how much they know and give confidence to learn and use Spanish creating a momentum.

“They made learning Spanish easy and fun in a very relaxed, comfortable atmosphere.  I would definitely recommend this course.  Even if you know some Spanish, this helps make it easier because of the less stress that no verb conjugations gives you.  This gives you more confidence in yourself to try and speak it more.

 “The stress free atmosphere and tons of interaction and participation were very conducive to learning.  The relaxation techniques alone are worth the price.  The fact that I can now feel more comfortable conversing in Spanish with my new friends and neighbors is priceless.  Muchas, muchas gracias.”

“I loved the relaxed environment.  I picked up quite a lot of new vocabulary.  I found this course very informative about how the language works, how I can make sentences and understand others better!  Muchas Gracias!  I had a call from Telcel (the local phone company) after our second class and I was able to speak and understand them for the first time. Despacio (meaning slowly) … a great word!  Everyone should take this course before they pick up bad habits.”

“I liked how simply the course was organized and the positive attitude about learning.  Thank you so much for helping me to learn Spanish!”

“I liked the laid back yet professional approach.  I highly recommend this new, relaxing method of learning Spanish,  I feel a lot more confident in the delivery of my words and sentences. It was taught in an excellent and very professional way.

“It was a very enjoyable class.”

How The Course Works

The first tactic is to use Baroque music in the learning process.  At least three best selling books, “Superlearning”, the “Mozart Effect” and “Superlearning 2000” have revealed insights about how to learn and think more powerfully based on systems drawn from the Bulgarian educational master, Dr. Georgi Lozanov.  Merri Scott was among just a few who learned directly from Lozanov.

The second tactic uses 17 unique lessons to provide Spanish fluency in a short time.   Let me prove to you how this tactic works by teaching you hundreds of Spanish words in less than 30 seconds.

Here is the proof.

“Most words in English that end in ION are almost identical, just pronounced differently.  For example action is accion, education-educacion, manipulation- manipulacion, etc.”

There you have it.  How long did it take you to read the sentence?  You now know hundreds of Spanish words that you will never forget.

See examples of the words you already know below.

How long would have taken you to memorize all those words?  How soon would you have forgotten them?

This is just one of seventeen Spanish lessons in the course.

The next lesson teaches how to pronounce each of the nouns.

Then, the third lesson teaches almost as many verbs, almost as quickly.

The fourth lesson shows how to avoid conjugating verbs by sticking with the infinitive (far easier than it sounds).  This simple lesson leaves a person sounding like a Spanish professor without ever conjugating a verb.

Lesson five shows how to sound infinitely polite and yet get almost anything desired in Spanish.

Lesson six gives valuable connectors and the seventh lesson triples the Spanish capacity with three words for “yesterday,” “now” and “tomorrow”.

By the end of three days you feel comfortable speaking Spanish.

Plus the system is Impro-Dynamic.  This means your Spanish keeps getting better even though you do not seem to be studying… practicing… or speaking Spanish.

I was amazed by this as I traveled back and forth from the USA to Ecuador.  The longer I was away from Ecuador… the better my Spanish became.  My second language was automatically improving The self improving feature comes because you learn to create Spanish sentences rather than remember them.  The portion of the brain that creates is more powerful than the portion that recalls.  When your mind creates something… it owns it!  You do not have to remember .

During the course you learn 4005 Spanish words that you already know .  

You then learn how to create Spanish sentences from these words.

Throughout the course you learn how to pronounce the sentences you create.

When the course ends… the mind keeps working… and creating… so next time you begin to speak Spanish you’ll be surprised .  You improve even though you have not actively worked on your lingual skill.

Due to the difficulty of getting groups together to learn this valuable technique, we created an online program for subscribers to use the Super Spanish course at home.  Normally $149, this is available at the highly reduced price of $79. Simply use coupon code SPANISH110 at checkout.

I’ll be in touch personally via email with each person who signs up for this course to see how it works or what is required to make it better.  Once this test is complete, we plan to offer the program on a larger scale and at a much higher price.

The ONLINE course has our, full satisfaction or money back, guarantee.  Try Super Spanish for 60 days.  If not fully satisfied, simply let us know for a full refund.

Learn Spanish online $79 – using coupon code SPANISH110 at checkout to immediately save $110 off the regular price of $149

Here are more testimonials from previous Super Spanish Courses.

Maggie wrote: It didn’t really seem possible that we would be speaking and understanding Spanish in only 3 days but the course made it happen in a very supportive learning environment.  I would highly recommend this course for anyone wishing to learn “practical Spanish”.  The teaching methods, use of relaxation, the use of native Spanish speakers for pronunciation and the teachers themselves who were approachable and helpful and always positive made this a very valuable class.

This course improved my self confidence in my ability to learn and retain a language.  It was presented with genuine enthusiasm, great energy and the style of learning is very effective. Gracias!  It was a great experience.

Nadine wrote: “Just spent the last 3 days in the most wonderful learning environment learning Spanish.  What an amazing learning experience!!  First day out of class and I could not stop thinking in Spanish WOW!!  I am amazed by how much I learned, retained and how much more is showing up now that I am out of class.  And the best part is THERE WAS NO STUDYING!! Indeed this is Super Thinking!!!  I would highly recommend this to anyone that has ever had a desire to learn another language or learn anything in record time.

And a few days after that ….  As I went through my day, just hanging out with my son, I could see myself starting to think in Spanish.  At first I thought it was amusing but as it continued and increased I thought “My goodness this is really remarkable amazing” It was really an effortless unfolding.  I wasn’t at any point “trying” to think in Spanish, just words I knew would fly across the screen in my mind.  And then this afternoon, my son cuddled up on the couch to watch some cartoons on his ipad and was watching Peppa Pig in Spanish…hmm coincidence?  I think not, I’m radiating Spanish so much that my son is being influenced!  Thanks a million again.  This weekend the best learning experience of my life!!

If you have ever had a desire to learn Spanish this is the way to do it!  By the end of the first day I had more confidence and more practical ability than I had from any previous courses I had taken.  It was fun and relaxed and full of laughter.  You will leave this class excited to use what you have learned.  Rather than leaving overwhelmed with how much you have yet to learn and master, you are equipped with the knowledge and know how to go out and communicate as well as the excitement to do it!”

Gary noted:  “The whole approach is positive and conducive to learning at a level that benefits ALL participants.  It is not intimidating and does not set up a pass/fail atmosphere.  The presenters are terrific and the results unbelievable.  It was relaxed, informal, friendly and effective.”

Twila said:  “This class provided a very refreshing and relaxed way of learning.  The atmosphere felt very safe to say the words you were practicing.  I learned a lot in a way that will make it easy to apply.  Starting with conversation is way more fun.  How quickly you can learn!  It was a great group, great instructors and great stories.

The atmosphere in the classroom was so relaxed that learning Spanish felt like a breeze and not like a painful task.  The relaxation exercises are really conducive to language learning.  We learned A LOT in a short time and it was fun and the environment was non-threatening.”

Brigitte sent this:  “Buenos Dias, Suzanne. su clase de espanol es excelente! Muchas Gracias!  
I have already done what you suggested and went into the program listening to the music and going over the lessons.  I know: Repetition……reinforcement…..thinking in the new language….it’s all part of it.  I loved your course and will certainly recommend it to friends.  Who knows….I might feel the urge and have the opportunity to repeat it at your beautiful place in Puerto Aventuras…..Quien sabe? Hasta otro dia y saludos a su familia.”

Marie wrote:  “I would highly recommend this course.  The amount covered in 3 days is amazing!  All with no stress.  The correlation lessons and pronunciation practice has greatly reduced my anxiety to go out and use my Spanish.  I really enjoyed the whole process and thank you for the take away tools.”

Learn Spanish online $79 – using coupon code SPANISH110 at checkout to immediately save $110 off the regular price of $149

Gary

Here is the English translation of a few of the many Spanish words you now know and will never forget.  How long would it have taken you to memorize them?  How soon would you forget?

“Most words in English that end in ION are almost identical, just pronounced differently.  For example, action is accion, education-educacion, manipulation- manipulacion, etc.”

Some more of these words:  Combination, Attrition, Education, Vacation, Petition, Lotion, Motion, Construction, Abduction, Pronunciation, Concentration and a ton of others!

Learn Spanish online $79 – using coupon code SPANISH110 at checkout to immediately save $110 off the regular price of $149

(1) www.telegraph.co.uk Benefits-of-bilingualism.html

 

The PO Gets KO’d


We have been looking at the importance of pension protection in the system we call “Life in the modern world”.   Previous messages also reviewed how we can use a nation’s Post Office as a mirror for the nation’s  state of affairs.

The Post Office is a small reflection of a grand scale that can help us see the whole.  The fiscal structure of the Western world is so complicated… the moral code so confused… the socio-economic communication so complex that it’s hard for we mere mortals to absorb.  Perhaps we can see it better and understand how to protect and profit from seeing how well the Post Office is doing.

I checked at the US Postal Service website and read this: The United States Postal Service is the one government agency that touches every American on a daily basis.  Through rain, sleet, and snow, Postal Service employees deliver more mail every delivery day, per capita, than most countries deliver in a month.

1st us postage stamps

First US postage stamps

The USPS website says: The story of the United States Postal Service begins in 1775, when the Continental Congress named Benjamin Franklin the first American Postmaster General.  Franklin and his fellow patriots saw a robust mail system as critical to the nation’s welfare.

I agree.  A country is as good as its mail!

Let’s look at the value of pensions when we read an article that appeared last week in USA Today entitled “Postal Service default appears likely” by Sean Reilly, of the Federal Times.

The article says:  The cash-strapped U.S. Postal Service is within weeks of defaulting on a legally required $5.5 billion payment into a health benefits fund for future retirees.

So far, it appears House leaders have no intention of preventing that from happening — they have postponed any action on relief measures until at least fall.
While a Senate-passed bill would significantly reduce the amount of the payment, the House has not acted on that legislation. House leaders also have reversed plans to take up a rival measure that would cut the payment to $1 billion, according to a spokesman for one of the measure’s sponsors, Rep. Dennis Ross, R-Fla.
“It appears, although we have the votes, leadership does not intend for postal reform to come to the floor before (the) August recess,” the spokesman, Fred Piccolo, said in an email late Wednesday.

Under a schedule laid out in the 2006 Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act, the Postal Service also is supposed to make a $5.6 billion payment into the retiree health fund at the end of September.

“Without congressional action, we will default on both payments,” Postal Service spokesman Dave Partenheimer said in an email Thursday.

How do we survive the system when even the post office falls apart?  If we cannot trust the Post Office who can we trust?   The answer to surviving in an era of mistrust is to trust our own common sense and to search for value.

This is why once a quarter we look at the emerging equity market valuation analysis by Michael Keppler.  Michael’s firms are the best when it comes to value analysis of stock markets.

Here is an update on the values of major stock markets by Keppler Asset Management.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Keppler

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Here is Keppler’s Emerging market analysis as of July 2012.

Recent Developments & Outlook

After gaining 10.7 % in the first three months 2012, Emerging Markets equities declined again in the second quarter.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Markets Total Return Index (December 1988 = 100) lost 8.9 % in US dollars and 4.4 % in Euros.

After advancing 2.6 % versus the US dollar in the first quarter 2012, the Euro gave up 4.7 % in the second quarter. It now stands at 1.2691 (USD/EUR) compared to 1.2982 at year-end 2011.

All three regional indices declined last quarter: Asia by 5.6 %, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) by 2.4 % and Latin America by 6.4 %. Performance numbers are in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

Five Emerging Markets advanced last quarter and sixteen markets declined.

The three best performing markets were Mexico (+3.6 %), Turkey (+2.4 %) and the Philippines (+1.9 %).

Brazil (-10.3 %), Morocco (-10.0 %) and Taiwan (-8.3 %) fared worst last quarter.

There were three changes in our performance ratings last quarter.

Korea and Malaysia were upgraded to “Buy” and Thailand was downgraded to “Neutral”.

The Top Value Model Portfolio now contains the eleven national MSCI markets Brazil, China, the Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Russia, Taiwan and Turkey at equal weights. According to our performance ratings, a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

Michael Keppler July 12, 2012

Multi currency subscribers can see the neutral and sell markets plus a full 48 page report on current emerging market valuations at their password protected multi currency site. Click here.

See how to subscribe to our multi currency report and updates here.

We  are a system living within a system.  All systems are composed of three forces of… growth…. continuity and… deterioration.

As the systems around us deteriorate we need to add more growth and continuity within.  When we integrate our own personal system reality rather than fashion… we add strength in our energies of growth and continuity.   These strengths help protect us as we also balance distortions in the bigger systems.

The only way to have a strong nation is to have strong people because there is no such thing as security… just opportunity.

Gary

Learn more about how to gain balance through value at our upcoming Super Thinking + Investing and Business Seminar this October 5-6-7 2012.

Better still join the International Club and attend this seminar FREE.

Belong to the International Club

The Huge 2020 Risk

Here is a huge risk that could explode in 2020.

I hope I am wrong… but the numbers are clear.

According to Treasurydirect.com, (1) as of December 26, 2020 the total US public debt was 23 trillion and 845 billion dollars.

This is not a theoretical problem for the future.  This is not something that our children and grandchildren will have to deal with.  This is a problem in the here and now for you and me.

Rising interest rates create a massive problem for every American.

treasury direct

Look at how the interest costs alone have risen to over a half trillion dollars a year.

treasury direct

 

The bad news is that the (US federal debt) is getting bigger….harder to miss.  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected in 2010 (the debt then was a bit over 14 trillion) that, under law at that time, debt held by the public would exceed $16 trillion by 2020, reaching nearly 70 percent of GDP.

The $7 Trillion Error.

They sure goofed on that.  Here we are… only in 2020 and debt has shot past 23 trillion.

How could the CBO be so wrong? 

The CBO screwed up because they could never imagine that the Fed would push interest rates so low… and keep them there.  The interest rates are so low that the government has been able to borrow more than imagined and still afford the interest.

For example, US Federal government interest last year amounted to around $573 billion.  Yet in 2008 on debt of only $9 trillion +  the interest that year was $451 billion +.

Interest payments in 2017 were 27% higher than they were in 2008.  Yet the debt is over 250% higher.  

Very low interest rates have helped the government borrow.  Low interest has also helped the US stocks reach all time high prices.

The government will resist raising rates because it will ruin their budget, cause a collapse of the stock markets and destroy the US dollar.

Rising interest rates, will create an almost unimaginable debt crisis.  If government interest doubles it is like the $23+ trillion national debt  rising to 46 trillion!  Unless there are some huge tax increase the interest payments are not sustainable.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife, Merri and I, have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.

Let me share the basics of this data and how we can be of help through 2020.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.

Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life through 2020 and beyond.

A falling US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but also brings a window of huge profit as I explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average passed a record high, the U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

The double shock of money fleeing Wall Street and US debt skyrocketing, will destroy the purchasing power of the greenback.

Go to the store even now.  Statistics say inflation is low, but buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.  Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.

Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?

What can we do?

Gain a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I will celebrate our 50th year of global living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Global micro business income.

#2:  Low cost, natural health.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, investments that take little time or cost to buy and hold… so you can focus on earning more instead

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on better, easier investing.

28 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

Join us for all of 2020 NOW.

The three disciplines, earning, health and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three natural health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However you’ll receive this free as club member and save $59.85.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to you as a club member free.  You save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $2299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Platinum Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

Now there is a new distortion ready to ripen in the year ahead.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Platinum Dip 2019”.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged precious metal speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Platinum Dip 2018” offers enormous profit potential in 2018.

The report “Platinum Dip 2019” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Platinum Dip 2019”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: A year’s follow up subscription to the Purposeful investing course… Plus more.

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons 2019 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 

 

 

Postal Service default appears likely

Toxic Equity Markets


Equity markets appear to be growing more toxic.  What a great opportunity this creates!  See a Singapore investing idea below.

wikipedia ratings

This chart from a Wikipedia entry (linked below) shows that there are few AAA rated borrowers left.

There are several reasons why equity markets have been falling … beyond global economic shifts… the European debacle… excessive government debt just about everywhere and the recent slowdown in US employment.

These factors are bad enough to cause a crash, but beginning in May we naturally expected a slowdown because May is the time of year when markets traditionally drop.

A statistical analysis was done some years ago by Michael Keppler. This study shows that most appreciation in most major equity markets, is achieved from the beginning of November through the end of May.

Michael wrote: “Gary, We have done extensive research on seasonality and I am proud to announce that a shortened version of a major study which I have coauthored with our Director of Research, Dr. Xing Hong Xue, will be published in the Winter Issue of the Journal of Investing. Our research shows that basically in all major equity markets, nearly all returns are achieved from the beginning of November through the end of May. All the best to you and Merri. Michael”
Keppler showed that over 30 years, the Dow grew 8.16% overall.
There was 8.36% growth in the months November through April.
There was 0.37 growth in the months May  to October.$100 invested in the Dow grew to $848 overall over the 30 years.$100 invested in the Dow grew to $1,067 if it were invested only in the months of November through April.$100 invested in the Dow dropped to $79 if it were invested only in the months of May to October. Historically the best five months with the greatest change of low growth began last month. There is no on-off switch I know of but we should be thinking more about risk aversion at this time of year.
Ruggie Wealth Management agrees.  My Florida neighbor, Morgan Hatfield, works for Ruggie Wealth Management in Central Florida and sends me regular updates.

Ruggie, like JGAM is a small firm (which manages hundreds of millions not billions) but has repeatedly been listed as a top wealth manager in numerous magazines including Registered Rep Magazine Wealth Manager Web,  Financial Advisor Magazine,  Worth Magazine and Barron’s.

I also pay attention to the data Ruggie sends me like this data Ruggie wrote (bolds are mine):

Judging by what’s happening in the bond market, it appears that some investors are more concerned about the return of their money than the return on their money.

Screen shot 2012-05-31 at 6.56.10 AM

When investors get nervous about the stock market, you often see money flow into the government securities of perceived safe haven countries such as Germany, Japan, U.K., and the U.S. This increased demand helps drive down the yield on their bonds. In fact, take a look at the following chart to see some amazingly low government securities yields:

By contrast, yields on government securities in perceived “risky” countries such as Italy (10-year yield of 5.76 percent) and Spain (10-year yield of 6.10 percent) are much higher, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Unfortunately, even the government securities of the “safe” countries may experience a loss in “purchasing power.” For example, with inflation running at 2.3 percent in the U.S. for the 12 months ending in April, investors in 10-year U.S. government securities may lose purchasing power since the yield is less than the inflation rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On top of that, if interest rates rise over time, the bonds could experience a capital loss as the price of the bond adjusts to reflect current interest rates.

IF THE WORLD WAS A LAUNDROMAT, the U.S. might be the “cleanest dirty shirt”. As new signs point to a global slowdown, we’re on the lookout for countries that might hold up better in the rinse cycle and the U.S. could be that country, according to U.S. News & World Report.

The “cleanest dirty shirt” analogy comes from Mohamed El-Arian of PIMCO who says, “When you’re on a business trip that gets extended and you don’t have any more clean shirts, you wear the one that’s least dirty.”   In our case, you invest in the country that’s ‘least bad’.

‘Least bad’ may not sound like a great way to invest, but consider this. With the U.S. fiscal situation in horrible shape, you might expect investors to shun the U.S. dollar on fear the government will print dollars and reduce its value. Well, recently, investors have been clamoring to buy dollars. For example, last week, “The ICE dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of major currencies, rose to 82.416 – its highest level since 2010,” according to MarketWatch.

In the dollar’s case, nobody is suggesting that, in isolation, it looks great. Rather, when you compare it to another currency such as the euro – which represents 17 countries in Europe – it looks relatively better because Europe’s problems seem more pressing than ours.

Just like taking a dirty shirt to the Laundromat to get it cleaned, investments over time may turn from “dirty” to “clean” as problems get worked out and situations improve. There’s money to be made during this cleansing cycle and we’re doing our best to “clean up.”

Learn more about Ruggie Wealth from Morgan Hatfield at mhatfield@ruggiewealth.com

Ruggie’s message supports a note I sent to a Multi Currency subscriber  last week when he wrote:   Hi Gary,  Moody’s Investors Service on Wednesday downgraded nine Danish financial institutions, pointing to sluggish economic growth, risks from the euro zone debt crisis and structural changes to the covered bond market, a reliable source of cash.

Other banks hit by downgrades include Jyske Bank, Spar Nord Bank, Ringkjobing Landbobank and Sydbank.  Thomas and the crew at JGAM are great.  The rating downgrades are troubling. What are your thoughts?  Warm regards,

My reply confirms the importance of risk aversion and looking for value.  I replied:  The downgrade does not affect safety much if one is holding deposits less than 100,000 euros,  the amount guaranteed by the Danish government.

The Danish government’s credit is good according to this Wikipedia entry (linked below) its the 4th best in the world.

wikipedia ratings

The high ranking along with Ecuador’s S&P B ranking (and a 5% tax on all money taken out of Ecuador) are why I invest in Ecuador real estate but do not keep much in Ecuador banks, stocks or bonds.

Investments shares, bonds and such held at Jyske are held on behalf of the investor and are not part of the bank’s balance sheet so the downgrading does not affect them.

Shares (I hold quite a few Jyske shares) and/or bonds issued by Jyske or large cash balances could be at greater risk.

Thomas Fischer at JGAM can tell you a more exact amount of the Danish guarantee at any given time.  Also Thomas has a nine page Moodys Credit Report on Jyske and a presentation on the strength of Jyske Bank that is very interesting.

His email is Fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors should contact René Mathys  at mathys@jbpb.dk

I have always liked the people in Jyske’s management, their modest budgets (no limos for the CEO here)…  their no bonus pay plan for staff and equal responsibility philosophy to look after employee – shareholder and customer.   This I believe reduces the risk of a gigantic JP Morgan type debacle and is one reason I remain a long term shareholder.

I tend to be a thematic investor taking long term positions that I do not alter unless the theme changes.  This is why I also hold shares in Unicredit.

The themes I am investing in are based on my belief that investors typically oversell bad news and that Europe will recover.

This idea is hedged with some shares (Jyske being one along with Axel Spring and Sky Deutsch) that earn mainly in North Europe.  The theme here is based on the chance that the EU will create two euros… the Euro Hard and Euro Soft.  Jyske, Axel Spring and Sky Deutsch are all companies where a big share of their earnings are in areas that would be in the hard euro (Denmark, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Finland are likely targets).

This theme is based on the belief that the troubles have made most European shares an extra good value  and European banks an even better value with the added boost of a potential potential Euro split.

I also invest in the themes of water… electricity… silver and commodities plus Singapore real estate.

gary-scott-portfolio

Note that equities make up only 29% of my liquid portfolio and the other 71% are in bonds and this represents less than half of my total portfolio… the balance being in real estate.  In other words I am very diversified.

Other messages have noted that I am shifting towards agriculture and other basics as well… ie. water, food and shelter.

I rarely watch the price of the shares I hold. This in a way is laziness, but I like to think that my time is better spent on my own business where I have more control over events.

Instead I watch the themes.

On the theme of water, one of the shares I especially like (and have written about numerous times at this site) is Hyflux Ltd.  This is listed on the New York Stock Exchange with the symbol (HYFL.SI).

Hyflux purifies water with proprietary membranes.   They began with Chinese municipalities then switched their expansion to the Middle East.

As the Hyflux share chart shows the shares were hammered during the Middle East political awakening.

hyflux chart

Did the need for water go away?  Did Hyflux’s management skills and decade of experience and contacts disappear?

Based on belief in the theme (water) and the company combined with the principle that investors oversell during times of panic, I invested in more Hyflux shares last June.  They rose 31.8% up to May 2012… plus paid a dividend.

Then a bit of bad news came along.  An excerpt from this May 3, 2012 Reuters article entitled Brokers cut Hyflux target, estimates explains:   OCBC Investment Research and Maybank Kim Eng Research lowered their price targets on Hyflux Ltd after the water treatment company reported weaker-than-expected results.  OCBC cut its price target to S$1.35 from S$1.55 and maintained its hold rating, while Kim Eng reduced its target to S$1.15 from S$1.21 and maintained its sell rating.

Hyflux shares were up 0.4 percent at S$1.44, having risen around 20 percent so far this year.

OCBC cut its earnings forecast for Hyflux’s 2012 fiscal year by 14 percent and by 11 percent for 2013 on lower margin assumptions.

Due to the geographical switch in Hyflux’s order book profile to Asia from Middle East and North Africa, its gross margin fell to 38 percent in its first quarter from 51 percent a year ago, OCBC said.

Kim Eng downgraded its 2012-2014 earnings estimate by 10-15 percent on reduced margin assumptions.

This has pushed the shares down a bit again because Hyflux is doing the correct thing… diversifying back into China.

This is a formula I seek:

#1: Theme unchanged (there is still a growing water shortage).

#2: Business fundamentals unchanged or improved.

#3: Shares pushed down by short term news.

I continue to like the water theme and Hyflux technology.   Bad short term news creates added value.

Diversification is an important part of protection when markets are toxic. .

On the subject of toxicity numerous news stories that have reported  that Bluefin tuna carrying radioactive contamination from Japan have arrived at US shores 6,000 miles away. This  is the first time a huge migrating fish has been shown to carry radioactivity such a distance.

Screen shot 2012-05-31 at 7.04.04 AM

Photo from Washington Post article on Japanese radiation and Bluefin Tuna.

The article said “We were frankly kind of startled,” said Nicholas Fisher, one of the researchers reporting the findings online Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Merri and I know a lot about the insidious effects of radiation as we suffered radiation poisoning from Chernobyl.   In this time of radiation awareness, we are being more careful.

I regrettably may know too well about the effects of radiation on health. Growing up in the 1950s and 1960s, I swam in the Columbia River every summer day, not knowing (according to the Washington State Department of Health) that for more than 40 years, the U.S. government produced plutonium for nuclear weapons at the Hanford Site so until the 1970s, the Columbia River “held the distinction of being the most radioactive river in the United States”.

Then Merri and I were exposed to excessive doses of radiation from Chernobyl.  Added to this and/or regular, frequent air travel for decades our health suffered.

Our report “Protect Against Radiation” shows seven ways we regained and even improved our health.  Order this report here $4.99.
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Gary
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Thomas Fischer of JGAM will join our delegates at the June 2012 Writer’s Camp to help them learn how to invest better as well as gain global economic background for better writing perspective.   Plus he will be speaking at our North Carolina leaf change October 5-6-7 Earning With Quantum Thinking in a Micro Businesses seminar.

If you are diversifying abroad see this unique condo in San Vicente with views across the Chone of Bahia asking $50,000 negotiable!

san vicente ecuador condo

Major Market Value Update April 2012


See Keppler’s Latest Major Market updates below.

MSCI global index chart tags:

This chart from finance.yahoo.com shows a worrying head and shoulders pattern.

The head and shoulders pattern is a reversal pattern most often seen in uptrends.  This is most reliable when found in an uptrend and shows that the market has begun to slow down as the forces of supply and demand are becoming unbalanced.   This fits with one of the foundations in our investing philosophy that “periods of high performance are followed by periods of low performance and vice versa”.

Already as you’ll see below some big money was just lost in the markets.

There are three steps that can help protect you from such volatility so you can retire from the rat race at any age in this world of rapid change.

#1: Learn how to be healthier, smarter and more intuitive.

#2: Use the added advantages from Step #1 to learn how to earn by filling a purpose you truly enjoy.

#3: Learn how to invest your extra earnings from Step #2 into good value multicurrency investments.

The best way to enhance profits and protect against loss is by always seeking value.

Understanding good value is the tricky part.

This is why once a quarter we look at a major and emerging equity market valuation analysis by Michael Keppler.  Michael’s firms are the best when it comes to value analysis of stock markets.

Here is an update on the values of major stock markets by Keppler Asset Management.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Keppler

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Multi Currency Subscribers can see the total 85 page major market value report at your password protected site. Click here.

Learn how to become a multi currency subscriber here.

Recent Developments & Outlook

Global Equities continued their recent uptrend in the first quarter 2012. The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) finished the quarter up 11.2 %, up +11.6% in US dollar and up +8.8 % in Euro, respectively.

After having lost 3.2 % versus the US dollar in 2011, the Euro gained 2.6 % in the first quarter 2012. It now stands at 1.3317 (USD/EUR) compared to 1.2982 at year-end 2011.

Twenty-two markets advanced in the first quarter, two markets declined.

Japan had the highest return (+19 %), followed by Germany (+17.9 %) and Belgium (+16 %).

Spain (-5.7 %), Portugal (-0.9 %) and Canada (+4.4 %) performed worst last quarter. Performance is shown in local currencies, unless mentioned otherwise.

Fundamentals have improved further over the last 12 months: Book values, cash flows and dividends of the Equally Weighted World Index grew by 7.4, 6.3 and 17.2 percent, respectively.

Earnings, however declined by 0.6 percent compared to March 2011.

The Top Value Model Portfolio, based on the Top Value Strategy (December 1969 = 100) using national MSCI country indices as hypothetical investment vehicles, finished the first quarter  up +12.7 %), in US dollars up +14.2 %) and in Euro up +11.3 %.

There were no changes in our performance ratings last quarter.

The Top Value Model Portfolio holds the six “Buy”-rated markets Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Norway at equal weights. According to our analyses, a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The table below shows how the Major Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI World Index, the MSCI Europe Index and the MSCI US Index as of March 31, 2012 based on selected variables (current numbers for book value; 12-month trailing numbers for the other variables – no forecasts).

To demonstrate the current attractiveness of global equities in general, I also show the key variables of the MSCI World Index as of December 31, 1999, when the MSCI World Index reached its all-time-high.

Which portfolio would you rather have? Don’t get fooled by the 15.1 % to pay a premium of 131 % over the current book value to receive this return, return on equity of US stocks. You have if you enter the market at current prices.

keppler tags:

Wouldn’t you rather have a return on equity of 8.4 % at a Price/Book Value of 1.09, which translates into an earnings yield of 7.8 % as compared to 6.5 % for US equities?

You have to decide whether higher expected earnings growth in the US may justify this type of a premium.

While nobody in a sane mental condition would opt for the MSCI World Index at the valuation levels experienced at the end of the last millennium, global equity investors should ask themselves what makes more sense today:

– Invest in US equities at a valuation premium of 55% compared to the MSCI Europe Index,

– Invest in the MSCI World Index at a valuation premium of 28% compared to the MSCI Europe Index,

– Invest in the Top Value Markets at a valuation discount of 39% compared to the MSCI World Index.

In my more than 30 years’ experience, I have never seen such a bad sentiment towards continental Europe. After a strong start in 2012, chances are good for a continuation of rising stock prices in general for the coming years.

If history is any guide, chances are better still for the Major Markets Top Value Model Portfolio.

This view is supported by our implicit three-to-five-year projection for the compound annual total return of the Equally-Weighted World Index, which now stands at 15.3 %, down from 17.6 % last quarter.

The upper-band estimate of 13,835 by March 31, 2016 implies a compound annual total return of 20.7 %; the lower-band value of 9,223 corresponds to a compound total return of 9.0 % p.a. Even our worst case makes equities look attractive — please see chart below, which shows the entire real-time forecasting history of Keppler Asset Management Inc. for the Equally Weighted World Index.

These numbers are based on relationships between price and value over the previous fifteen years. Given the current low levels of interest rates – real rates are negative in most places – I would like to point out that we do not have to be right with regard to the magnitude of our projections, but only directionally for investors to make money.

keppler tags:

Michael Keppler New York, April 16, 2012

We can see from Keppler’s analysis some really great value in the major markets

Multi currency subscribers can see an 85 page value report that values every market and shows the bad and neutral markets as well. Go to your password protected page here.

See how to subscribe and receive the password and the 85 page report extra below.

 

Triple Value


The key to success in investing and business is to find value.

Ecuador beaches offers great value.  Speaking Spanish adds value in a person’s life. These facts and a special savings this month at Ecuador’s beach adds tripe value.

Super Thinking + Spanish Teacher Glenn Sterling explains why he is conducting Spanish courses on Ecuador’s beaches that are coordinated with Ecuador beach real estate tours.

ecaudor-beach

Why Spanish on Ecuador’s Beaches?

By Glenn Sterling

Perhaps your priority is quiet, quaint.   Perhaps like in the H. G. Wells’ novel, “The Time Machine”, you’d prefer to go back to a simpler time, less costly, with fewer rules and regulations, with more time just for you?

 Retirement on the beach in that quiet, quaint location in a simpler time you dream of does exist.  It’s less costly by far, has fewer rules, fewer regulations and most of your time is your own.  The most that’s not taken up by guests, neighbors, well-wishers and other such “friends” anyway – or by the beach.

You can be alone on the beach 90% of the year, you can make your own disappearing trail in the sand or surf.

ecaudor-beach

You can watch fishermen at work or admire their boats.

ecaudor-beach

Perhaps you’ll want to see the frigates (sacred to the Mayans) catching thermals, soaring high, or…

ecaudor-beach

admire the pelicans patrolling the surf.

ecaudor-beach

What you won’t feel from these pictures is the warm humid coastal air embracing you, you won’t hear the exploding surf as it tumbles beachward.

ecaudor-beach

You won’t smell the invigorating brine scent of the brisk sea breeze.  For three fourths of the year you may NOT notice the almost “perfect” climate.  Unless you’re an early riser, you may miss the morning fishing catch unloading on the beach.

ecaudor-beach

San Clemente, Ecuador offers all of the above, the basics to survive, thrive and little more besides quiet and alone time.

For the recluse in you, San Clemente is almost perfect.  Here you can almost make time stand still!

Glenn

Super Thinking + Spanish teacher Glenn Sterling and Jean Marie head of Ateam Ecuador on the beach have coordiated a Spanish course and real estate tour on the dates below.

April 19-20-21 Coastal Real Estate Tour

You can take advantage of a multi tour adventure price and pay only $998 for both the course and the tour. This saves $200!

Two Pack… 2 seminar courses & tours $998

Two pack Couple  $1,399 Save $149 on couple  Save $249

Buy a three pack and attend the April 23-24-25 Cuenca tour as well and save even more.

Three Pack… 3 seminar courses & tours   $1399  Save $298.

Three pack Couple  $1,899.  Save $498.


Up 26.5% in 3 months as Markets Crash


Read about my latest report for your Kindle at Amazon.com.   Amazon Prime members can borrow for Kindle free!

The data below shows how and why a good value major market was up 26.5% in a year when most stock markets crashed.

See the Global Major Market Values Update as of January 1, 2012 below.

euro

First see the major market in the euro that has skyrocketed up because it had dropped so far below reason that it offered incredible value.

The euro. Can it survive?

Excerpts from a recent article in the Financial Times question the ability of the euro to survive.  The article entitled “S&P downgrades France and Austria” by Gerrit Wiesmann in Berlin, Peter Spiegel in Brussels and Robin Wigglesworth in London says:  The eurozone debt crisis returned with a vengeance on Friday as Standard & Poor’s, the credit rating agency, downgraded France and Austria – two of the currency zone’s six triple A rated countries – as well as seven nations not in that top tier, among them Italy and Spain.

This is bad news for the euro and global economy but this is not the worst of it.  The article went on to point out:  S&P, also gave 14 of 16 countries – including France, Italy and Spain – a negative outlook, which means there is a one-in-three chance for each country of a further downgrade this year or next.

The agency downgraded France and Austria by one notch to double A plus, while it cut Italy Spain and Portugal by two notches. Portugal has now been relegated to “junk” status by the three main rating agencies following similar actions by Moody’s in July and Fitch in November. Ireland held its rating.

The downgrades reignited fears about the fiscal sustainability of the eurozone and the knock-on effect on its rescue fund, which could now lose its own triple A rating, reducing its firepower or forcing eurozone nations to increase contributions yet again.

The really bad news is that a day later S&P downgraded the eurozone bail-out fund.   This means that the eurozone’s bail-out fund without a AAA credit rating, will have a harder time containing the euro debt crisis.   The cost of holding the euro together will rise.

Deeply profound problems like this will keep economic markets in turmoil for some time.   This turmoil however makes finding value more important than ever before.

The way value can surprise us with a 26.5% jump is shown below.

Here is an update on the values of major stock markets by Keppler Asset Management.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Keppler

The global economy is in tension.  US and Western European economies are both being forced to face up to debt, aging populations and huge unfunded future obligations in pensions, medical care and who knows what, amid a disintegrating, global social cohesion evidenced by terrorism… revolution and internal strife such as the bombing and killing in Norway.   

Huge losses will occur as the dollar and euro, or whatever currency format emerges in Europe,  lose purchasing power.

The best way to protect against these losses is by always seeking value.

Understanding value is the tricky part because in these difficult times investors ALWAYS overestimate the risk and create extra value.

This is why the bad boy of European markets last quarter made investors a cool 26.5% n just three months.

This is also why once a quarter we look at a major equity market valuation analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Here are Keppler’s Comments on Major Market Value for the last quarter to January 1, 2012.

Recent Developments & Outlook

Global Equities had reached their 2011 high in April and after that declined for five consecutive months before recovering again in the last three months. The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) finished the year up 7.8 % in the fourth quarter),  (+7.6 % in US dollars and up +11.2 % in euro).

In 2011, the MSCI World Index declined 5.5 % both in local currencies and in US dollars and 2.4 % in Euros.

The Euro lost 3.2 % versus the US dollar both in the last quarter and in 2011. It finished the year at 1.2982 (USD/EUR) — 3.2 % below its year-end 2010 level of 1.3416.

Eighteen markets advanced in the final quarter 2011, six markets declined.

Ireland had the highest return (+26.5 %), followed by Denmark (+11.8 %) and the US (+11.5 %).

Greece (-25.1 %), Portugal (-6.5 %) and New Zealand (-4.2 %) performed worst last quarter.

The best performing markets in 2011 were Ireland (+17.5 %), New Zealand (+5.7 %) and the US (+1.4 %).

Greece (-61.5 %), Austria (-34.3 %) and Finland (-29.6 %) were last year’s worst performing markets. Performance is shown in local currencies, unless mentioned otherwise.

Fundamentals have improved remarkably in 2011 moving in the opposite direction of stock prices: Compared with their end of 2010 levels, book values, 12-month trailing earnings and dividends of the Equally Weighted World Index grew by 9.1 %, 9.3 % and 19.1 %, respectively, last year. In addition, opportunity costs — i.e. the low interest rate environment — continue to make stocks look attractive.

There were no changes in our performance ratings last quarter.

The Top Value Model Portfolio holds the six “Buy”-rated markets Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Norway at equal weights.

According to our analyses, a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The table below shows how the Major Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI World Index, the MSCI Europe Index and the MSCI US Index at the beginning of 2012 based on selected variables. To demonstrate the current attractiveness of global equities in general, we also show the key variables of the MSCI World Index as of December 31, 1999, when the MSCI World Index reached its all time-high both in price and in terms of valuation. Compared with those levels, the MSCI World Index is now 59.2 percent cheaper. This explains to a large extent why the developed markets had been a loser in the first decade of the new millennium.

keppler-charts

Based on their current valuation levels, I believe that the second decade should turn out just fine for global equities in general and better yet for the Major Markets

Which portfolio would you rather have? While nobody in a MSCI World Index at the valuation levels experienced at the end of the last millennium, global equity investors should ask themselves what makes more sense today:

* invest in US equities at a premium of 64 % compared to the MSCI Europe Index,

* invest in the MSCI World Index at a premium of 31 % compared to the MSCI Europe Index, or

* invest in the Top Value Markets at a discount of 10 % compared to the MSCI Europe Index.

Our implicit three-to-five-year projection for the compound annual total return of the Equally-Weighted World Index now stands at 17.6 %, down from 19.2 % last quarter — see chart below.

keppler-charts

A look at the Irish Stock Exchange ISEQ General Index shows how the shares recovered after investors paniced mid 2011 and fled this market.

irish-market-chart

Irish ETF

iShares ETF managers offers the MSCI Ireland Capped Investable Market Index Fund (Symbol EIRL NYSE) U.S.-listed ETF which provides exposure to the Irish economy.

EIRL is linked to the MSCI Ireland Investable Market 25/50 Index, a benchmark that is designed to measure the performance of stocks in the top 99% by market capitalization of equity securities listed on stock exchanges in Ireland.  The index consisted of appx. 20 securities, with large allocations to the materials (25%), consumer staples (23%), and industrials (18%) sectors.  Large holdings include  CRH PLC, an Irish building materials group, the food company Kerry Group (11%) and drug development firm Elan Corporation (9%).

Since Ireland is a neutrally ranked market (by Keppler) and has enjoyed this last quarter spurt… others markets make better value sense now.

See which markets and why the Danish market is now in sell territory at our upcoming Super Thinking + Investing and Business Seminar.

Multi Currency portfolio subscribers can see Keppler’s full analysis of major markets at the password protected site here.

Learn how to obtain a Multi Currency portfolio password here.

Gary

 

Global Emerging Markets Value Update – October 2011


Look for emerging market value.  Times and conditions are changing.  We cannot count on emerging markets rising as they have in the past. See three stories of change, emerging markets and value below.

Talk about change!   Story #1 is about the weather. This last week we were in Wyoming photographing wildlife and playing with grandkids. Sunday and Monday we were in short sleeves.

antelope

On Monday afternoon the antelope looked like this.

Temperatures were in the 70s… the sky a bowl of pure powder blue and I was getting sunburned.

By Wednesday the photos I took of the antelope had changed along with temperature… down to 12 degrees F!

antelope

Antelope Wednesday morn.

That ended my thoughts of taking our granddaughters Sequoia and Teeka hiking.

gary-scott

Here we are in the afternoon snow.

With the weather it’s pretty easy to bring along extra layers of clothes… look outside in the morning and dress perfectly for the entire day. This was the exception. Perfect morning clothes would have left us frozen by evening.

Story # 2 is about currency volatility.  This is also a time of rapid currency change and unfortunately we cannot look out each morning to know which currency to choose.

A reader recently sent this note.  Dear Gary,  Huge thanks on your insightful articles.  I read them all the time and many few times over as they provide a lot of interesting information ahead of time.

I wrote to you before asking for advice/opinion on China and the Australian market/dollar.

I need to make a life decision very soon as to my apartment to sell or keep for another year.  All of my friends tell me to keep it as it is in a very good location, I would say a prime location that I rent all the time without a problem.  My concern is about China and commodities which could very slip as it already happened in Europe and other places.

What are your general consensus about China in the next 2 years or a  year? Do you honestly think it could be a bubble about to burst?

It is my life decision because my apartment is the only asset I have.  So if I could sell it before the bubble burst I will be smiling or very sad.. all depends on China as Australia is very closely connected.  My sincere thanks,

My reply is:  First, understand that the big wave of economic growth in China is over.   Future growth can be expected but is more complicated and less dependable.

Any investor’s position should be based on when they can buy… when they might need to sell and what and where they might need the money.  There’s no way that I could answer this reader’s question without knowing all these details.

You can get a glimpse of the problem in an October 24, 2011 Financial Times article entitled “Cost of credit on the rise in Asia” by Henny Sender that says:   Asian companies are discovering that the cost of raising money in the region, especially in US dollars, has risen even for those with strong credit ratings while for junk-rated firms the credit markets have been almost totally closed since June.

While the severity of the problem varies across the region, the trend illustrates that just as Asia’s economies have not decoupled from the west, neither have its capital and banking markets.  Given the uncertainty stalking the European and US markets, banks have less liquidity and the big investment houses hit by fund redemptions are pulling back from Asian bonds. The risk is that the lack of financing will erode economic growth, in turn deterring capital flows to Asia.

This means that investing in emerging currencies versus major market currencies must be viewed as a high risk speculation with risk of short term volatility.

Next, it is not possible to predict what currencies will do in the short term. Look at the volatility of the Australian to US dollar in the past year.

australian dollar chart

This is great motion for traders who are on top of currency moves by the minute and hour. For most of us, this is a formula for disaster if we try and take a position based on market timing.  These ups and downs are based almost entirely on unpredictable human emotion… and events beyond imagination.

The way to deal with this risk is… invest for the medium and long term and look for value!

This is why seeking value is so important.  Story #3 is about value as the harmonious aspect of existence that wishes to fill every void.  Value is the ecstasy that harmonizes away the agony of imbalance.  Value means you are buying what is NOT in demand at a price lower than the object’s or share’s worth.

This is why once a quarter we look at an emerging equity market value analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Here is Keppler’s latest emerging market value analysis for the third quarter of 2011 says:

Emerging Markets stocks have suffered their largest quarterly setback since December 2008.

Last quarter, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Markets Total Return Index (December 1988 = 100) declined 15 % in local currencies, 22.6 % in US dollars and 16.3 % in Euros.

The Emerging Markets Benchmark now stands at $ 1,110 and € 912, respectively.

Year-to-date, the Index is down 16.8 % in local currencies and 21.9 % in both US dollars and in Euros.

The Euro lost 7.5 % versus the US dollar in the last three months and finished the third quarter at 1.3417 USD/EUR — basically unchanged from its year-end 2010 level of 1.3416.

All three regional indices declined in the second quarter: Asia was down 17 %, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) declined 12.3 % and Latin America lost 11.6 %.

In the last nine months, Asia lost 17.5 %, EMEA gave up 12.6 % and Latin America 17.6 %.

Performance numbers are in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

There was no place to hide in the Emerging Markets included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index: All markets declined both last quarter and year-to-date.

South Africa (-1.3 %), Turkey and Morocco (both down 3.3 %) lost least last quarter.

Hungary (-33.6 %), China (-25.2 %) and Poland (-19.7 %) fared worst.

Indonesia (-2.2 %), South Africa (-2.7 %) and the Czech Republic (-5.6 %) performed best since the end of 2010.

Egypt (-38.3 %), Peru (-30.1 %) and China (-24.4 %) lost most year-to-date.

The Top Value Model Portfolio based on the Top Value Strategy (December 1988 = 100) declined 17 % in local currencies, 25.2 % in US dollars and 19.2 % in Euros. The Top Value Model Portfolio (December 1988 = 100) now stands at $ 21,403 and € 17,585.

Year-to-date, the Top Value Model Portfolio declined 17.9 % in local currencies and 22.7 % in US dollars and in Euros.

There was no change in our performance ratings last quarter.

The Top Value Model Portfolio contains the nine national MSCI markets Brazil, the Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey at equal weights.

According to our performance ratings, a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

SELL CANDIDATES (Low Value)   Chile            India           Indonesia       Korea.

NEUTRALLY RATED MARKETS China        Colombia      Malaysia      Mexico         Morocco      Peru    Philippines     South Africa.

Last week markets were crashing.   This week they have been strongly rising… because it appears that the euro may survive.   I predict that we’ll see plenty more euro troubles and that we’ll see plenty more up and down currency and market motion caused mainly by unpredictable market sentiment.

The way to cut through this noise and profit from this volatility is to seek value.

Gary

Learn more about Multi Currency investing here.

Belong to the International Club

The Huge 2020 Risk

Here is a huge risk that could explode in 2020.

I hope I am wrong… but the numbers are clear.

According to Treasurydirect.com, (1) as of December 26, 2020 the total US public debt was 23 trillion and 845 billion dollars.

This is not a theoretical problem for the future.  This is not something that our children and grandchildren will have to deal with.  This is a problem in the here and now for you and me.

Rising interest rates create a massive problem for every American.

treasury direct

Look at how the interest costs alone have risen to over a half trillion dollars a year.

treasury direct

 

The bad news is that the (US federal debt) is getting bigger….harder to miss.  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected in 2010 (the debt then was a bit over 14 trillion) that, under law at that time, debt held by the public would exceed $16 trillion by 2020, reaching nearly 70 percent of GDP.

The $7 Trillion Error.

They sure goofed on that.  Here we are… only in 2020 and debt has shot past 23 trillion.

How could the CBO be so wrong? 

The CBO screwed up because they could never imagine that the Fed would push interest rates so low… and keep them there.  The interest rates are so low that the government has been able to borrow more than imagined and still afford the interest.

For example, US Federal government interest last year amounted to around $573 billion.  Yet in 2008 on debt of only $9 trillion +  the interest that year was $451 billion +.

Interest payments in 2017 were 27% higher than they were in 2008.  Yet the debt is over 250% higher.  

Very low interest rates have helped the government borrow.  Low interest has also helped the US stocks reach all time high prices.

The government will resist raising rates because it will ruin their budget, cause a collapse of the stock markets and destroy the US dollar.

Rising interest rates, will create an almost unimaginable debt crisis.  If government interest doubles it is like the $23+ trillion national debt  rising to 46 trillion!  Unless there are some huge tax increase the interest payments are not sustainable.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife, Merri and I, have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.

Let me share the basics of this data and how we can be of help through 2020.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.

Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life through 2020 and beyond.

A falling US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but also brings a window of huge profit as I explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average passed a record high, the U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

The double shock of money fleeing Wall Street and US debt skyrocketing, will destroy the purchasing power of the greenback.

Go to the store even now.  Statistics say inflation is low, but buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.  Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.

Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?

What can we do?

Gain a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I will celebrate our 50th year of global living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Global micro business income.

#2:  Low cost, natural health.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, investments that take little time or cost to buy and hold… so you can focus on earning more instead

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on better, easier investing.

28 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

Join us for all of 2020 NOW.

The three disciplines, earning, health and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three natural health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However you’ll receive this free as club member and save $59.85.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to you as a club member free.  You save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $2299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Platinum Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

Now there is a new distortion ready to ripen in the year ahead.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Platinum Dip 2019”.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged precious metal speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Platinum Dip 2018” offers enormous profit potential in 2018.

The report “Platinum Dip 2019” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Platinum Dip 2019”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: A year’s follow up subscription to the Purposeful investing course… Plus more.

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons 2019 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 

 

 

Read  Cost of credit on the rise in Asia

Survival of the Euro


Can the Euro Survive?

euro

If not, what will are the consequences for you and me?  Is there anything we can do to prosper and thrive during the turbulence these profound questions create?

See how to thrive by seeking value in place where other investors flee.

Gary