Tag Archive | "us dollar"

Sailing Along With a Weak Dollar


The key to successful investing is to find trends that put the wind behind your sails.

I was lucky 45 years ago to have an opportunity to move to Hong Kong to sell US mutual funds. That was exactly the wrong place and time to be… sailing into a harsh wind.   But the error and a great sailor put me in a unique position to see beyond the US dollar.

hk sailing

Photo of the Hong Kong Tommy Bahama Round the Island Race for the La Cigale Trophy.  The winner had the wind behind his sails!

Noel Croucher, an eccentric Hong Kong expat, loved to sail alone.  He loved to make money as well.  The Royal Hong Kong Yacht Club still honors his contribution as commodore and secret financier.  The La Cigale Trophy is named after his yacht La Cigale II.

I arrived in Hong Kong in 1968 to sell US mutual funds but this was just about the end of a great US market bull cycle.  The Dow was entering a 15 year bear.  However Hong Kong was about to explode upwards.

I might have missed this fact but was lucky that one of my clients was Noel Croucher.  He lived to be 88, but when I walked in his door on a cold call, in the 1970s I suspect he was somewhere in his 70s.

There is a book “Quest of Noel Croucher by Vaudine England” which tells his story.

croucher

Image from Amazon.com page offering the book “The Quest of Noel Croucher” by Vaudine England.

The book tells that Croucher was a man of many facets, some not very nice.  All I saw was his good side.  Perhaps he saw in me a similarity to his past, a young man just starting with nothing but a willingness to work.  Whatever the reason, Croucher was happy to provide me with many hours of his time.

I knew he was a founder of the Stock Exchange and had been in Hong Kong so long that he could remember the colony before WWI.  He was a wealth of legends and stories about the Colony and seemed willing to sit and talk for hours of the past.

He shared stories of Hong Kong and his being interred during the wars and how the stock exchange was formed.

Croucher had a very poor background. His mother brought the family looking for a fugitive husband. She became a single mother in a hard world.  He started working hotels and the post office but worked his way to become a stock broker and became a founder of the HK Stock Exchange.

His surroundings were humble so I had no idea that he was the richest white man east of Suez when he emerged from a Japanese prisoner of war camp in Hong Kong in 1945.

He was never fully accepted by the Hong Kong upper crust but he left a vast fortune in trust that helps fund education to this day via the Croucher Foundation and he left me with wonderful insights both into the HK Exchange and the colony’s history for which I am forever grateful.   Noel Croucher helped me see how times had changed and that I should be selling Hong Kong investments to Americans rather than American investments in Hong Kong!  Nothing could have been more brilliant.

I switched and have never looked back.  Statistics support that this was a good decision.

dji

Dow Jones Industrial Index 1970s to now

Had I invested in the Dow Jones Industrial Index in 1970 and left the investment there… it would have done very well… rising from 973 to over 15,000… an appreciation of 873%.  That is an increase of about 15 times.

However when the Hong Kong Stock market’s Hang Seng Index was first published, its base was 100 points.

heng Seng

Heng Seng Index 1970s to now.

The Heng Seng Index rose from 100 to 30,000 and now is around 23,000. That’s an increase of 230 times.

I am not sure it would have been possible to invest just in the indexes at that time.    However one fact is clear. Anyone who invested long term in something as simple as the Dow Jones Industrial Index for the past 45 years has certainly had the wind behind their back.

Those who invested in emerging markets, like Hong Kong, during the same time had a much stronger wind.

During this weekend’s course in the Blue Ridge, I will expound on Croucher and Sailing Along with a Weak Dollar.  After all, I am still grateful and look forward to sharing more wisdom from Noel Croucher.

Gary

We’ll look at where the economic winds may be blowing for the next six months at our International Investing Seminar this weekend. Due to a larger than normal attendance we became overbooked so have moved to a larger meeting room and still have space.

Multi Currency Value Investing Seminar

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

Are We Days from Dollar Disaster?


Are we days from a US dollar disaster?

This is such an urgent question, I posted a free report for all readers entitled “US Dollar Protection Review“.

This report is quite long so here is an executive summary as it is important that you do not miss this part.

Understanding multi currency investing is very timely and important.

There are three factors that suggest there will be another significant US dollar fall.   If the dollar weakens… everything Americans buy abroad… which is a lot… will cost more.  Interest rates may rise and business may suffer.

Factor #1:  Economic recovery.  Since the 1960s the greenback has lost as much as 95% of its purchasing power to other major currencies, but it  has been strong since the 2007 recession.  There is a precedence for this.  After the other terrible recession in the 1980s, the US dollar became the currency of choice for about five years. Then after the recession ended, it took a terrible fall.  Investors have fallen back to the dollar again and again in times of fear.  They do not know where else to invest.  This is a short term emotional response that is fundamentally wrong.

Factor #2:  Congress.  Congress has just days left to approve lifting the $16.7 trillion borrowing cap and a government operating budget.  If this does not happen… an increasingly likely prospect… the government will shut down and the US could default on its debts shortly after.

This is a first-ever scenario which could throw the dollar into a tailspin at any time.

The $16.7 trillion debt limit was breached last May but the government has continued by using emergency measures such as not funding pensions for federal workers to stay open.

The Treasury says it will run out of options around mid-October and could default around that time.

However a US dollar crunch could come sooner… at any time in fact, because investors may lose confidence and stop reinvesting in U.S. government debt.

If this happens and bond investors switch to other countries’ bonds… the greenback’s snowball downwards could turn into an avalanche.

Every Thursday, the Treasury pays about $100 billion to investors.  Normally these investors roll over the investment.  If they lose confidence and want to be repaid instead, the Treasury’s entire cash balance could be wiped out leading to default.

In other words, America… right now is living from payday to payday.  Any Thursday payday could stop.

This would likely cause a crash on Wall Street and hurt the US economy, business and the public with a sharp and high increase in interest rates.

The administration acts as if it is expecting a shutdown and the Office of Management and Budget’s director has sent memos to federal agencies outlining preparations for closure.

Congress will most likely get their act together… again but this could cause an emotional panic and force the dollar down.  This emotional weakness is important because the US dollar should not be so strong anyhow. The dollar has been buoyed for some time by inertia… not by strong currency fundamentals.

Factor #3:  Weak Fundamentals.   The forces that support a currency are weak in the US.  Other currencies have better fundamentals.

Start for example with the Mexican peso and how it protected its purchasing power over the past five years.

At the bottom of the 2000 recession when investors were flocking to the US dollar,  I invested in Mexican Fixed Rate  MXN 780.000 with an  8% coupon. They mature December 2015 and are still in my portfolio.

I purchased at a premium of 103 ($10,000 of these bonds cost $10,300) so my yield has been 7.30% per annum for the past four years… plus as you’ll see I have enjoyed a forex profit.

Mexican peso data

Dollar peso multi currency chart from www.finance.yahoo.com

Click on image to enlarge.

When I invested in these bonds, each dollar I invested purchased 13.6 pesos.  That means that each peso was worth 7.35 cents.

I would like to say I was a hot shot and made the investment in February 2009 when the peso had drop temporarily to 15.3 pesos per dollar.  I did not. I do not ever try to capture the absolute tops and bottoms…for a reason.

This is multi currency diversification, not multi currency speculation.

I invested in these bonds when the peso was a bit stronger… as mentioned 13.6 pesos per dollar.  I immediately made a nice forex profit as the dollar fell from 13.6 pesos per dollar to 11.3 pesos per dollar.  That was a 15.4% forex profit in nine months.  I did not take that profit though.

This is multi currency diversification, not multi currency trading.
I was not looking for a short term speculation but a long term profit.  The US dollar strengthened again.  Today each US dollar buys about 12.9 pesos. This means that each peso is worth 7.75 cents.  In other words every 10,000 peso bond I bought was worth $735 at purchase.   Today each 10,000 pesos is worth $775 and the dollar is trading down versus the peso.

I am still earning 7.50% per annum and in 2015, I’ll get my money back with either a forex profit or loss.  If the peso has a strong run up in the next year or so, I may lock in the forex profit with a forex contract.

Simply put, the purchasing power of those bonds has increased, plus every year I received 7.5% income.

Let’s look at what this means in terms of total return.

From 2009 till 2015, I get $750 for every $10,000 I invested.  In simple return I earn 45% and then I get my money back.

Compare that to having invested in a Dow Jones Industrial Index ETF.  Right now had I invested in October 2009 my return would be about 35%.  The Dow has to rise 10% more to match the peso bond return.  Of course if the peso rises the Dow would have to climb more to provide an equal return.

Why the peso still makes sense.

Here are three charts from the Economist magazine.

Mexican peso data

Mexican peso data

Click on the image to enlarge or go to the Economist Statistics by clicking here.

Compare the fundamentals of the US versus Mexico. The first important statistic is the interest rate, 7.75% for Mexico and  2.92% for the US.  Budget deficit for Mexico  is -1.8% of GDP.  The US deficit is -4%.  The US current account is -2.7% of GDP. Mexico’s is about half that at -1.4%.  These fundamentals suggest that the peso with strengthen  versus the US dollar.

This next chart shows that Mexico has strong foreign reserves.

Mexican peso data

Click on the chart to enlarge or go to the Economist chart by clicking here.

Finally this chart shows that the Mexican peso is the 8th most traded currency in the world so there is plenty of liquidity.

Mexican peso data

Click on image to enlarge or go to the Economist website here

Jyske Bank’s website says:  We recommend investors to BUY MBONO 9.5% 2014 as we find that the bond and the currency offer reasonable return potential. We estimate that there is basis for a strengthening of the currency. However, a number of factors may weaken the currency in the short term. Sustained moderate growth in Mexico and the US and the Fed’s initiated scaling down of its purchase programme involves a risk of affecting the currency adversely.

It is important to keep an eye on particularly two issues with respect to our expectations of a strengthening of MXN over the next 12 months. Firstly, that energy and fiscal policy reforms will be implemented and, secondly, that growth will improve in H2. We expect that both of these factors will materialise. There is still potential of a number of upgrades of Mexico’s credit rating, and Mexico’s proximity to the US will be beneficial.

This bond yields about 3.5% per annum at this time.

How to Leverage

There is one more step that investors with a more speculative nature can take.  Borrow US dollars in the 3% range  and invest in pesos in the 6% range.  The idea behind this Borrow Low – Deposit High Strategy is to take advantage of the interest differential called the “positive carry”.  This creates additional income and potential for increased forex profit at the cost of risk from forex loss.

We will review how to calculate risk reward on such speculation at the upcoming International Investing and Business seminar October 4-5-6.

The bond that matures in 2104 does not pay high enough interest now, but longer term bonds do such as the 8% Mexican Bonos maturing 07-12-2023  is rated Baa1 A- and selling at 114.34 yields 6.11%. You borrow for 3% and invest for 6.11%.

EZ Peso

An easy way to invest in the peso is with the ETF iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund (EWW) launched in 1996 on the New York Stock Exchange. This is an easy way to invest via the Mexican Stock Market into pesos, but of course has the normal market risks.

The iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund seeks to provide investment results generally equivalent to publicly traded securities in the Mexican market, as measured by the MSCI Mexico Index.

You can learn more about investing in a diversified portfolio of ETF from Morgan Hatfield at mhatfield@ruggiewealth.com .

In the past year we have also looked at the potential of investing in Singapore dollars.

We also looked at how we sort of cleaned up with a Yen dollar- Multi Currency Sandwich.

See ENR Asset Management’s six currency diversification recommendation here.

We will look at the seven best currencies to invest in now at our International Investing and Business Seminar October 4-5-6.

Gary

Multi Currency Value Investing Seminar

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

To help you see a bigger picture I have posted a free report for all readers entitled “US Dollar Protection Review“.

Best of Multi Currency Investing Times & Worst


We can seize multi currency investing opportunity when we reflect on a tale… of two cities.

Take of Two Cities

A Tale of Two Cities at Amazon.com is FREE

A note from a concerned multi currency reader revealed ideas about good times and bad… the ups and downs… joys and sorrows… expansions and contractions – the frequencies that compose every measure in this symphony we call life.

This multi currency investor  wrote: Hi Gary Scott!  A long term reader trying to learn as much as possible before coming to Super Thinking International Investing Business Seminars.  Due to Newsmax I got tuned into Aftershock Survival Summit with Robert Weidemer who says real estate values going to dive down double dip from now until 2016.  He says don’t buy real estate now… rent until the significant declines hit.  What to do?

The answer came from Charles Dicken’s “A Tale of Two Cities” as it starts:  It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way.

I replied to the reader.  There are always multi currency problems and opportunities regardless of the current public mindset.

There is always someone predicting an upcoming disaster.  There is always someone lauding the upcoming boom. However dire and manic predictions never cover the entire picture.  Nor is the state of the canvas all that important.  It is what we do with the paint we possess that will determine our affairs, our fate and our fortunes in the coming days.

There are some good reasons to expect another shock between now and 2016.  Since 2000 our research (and our notes to readers) have shown that global equity markets are in a bear cycle of 13 to 20 years.

This last downwards pressure creates a huge opportunity.  This may be last bargain basement for investments that many of us will see.

First… the world  has a bigger global population with greater productive capacity and better ability to trade.  In other words, the really big picture is more production and more consumption.  Bigger… greater… better.  More people…. more to do…. more opportunity.

Second… we have more energy and use it better.   The industrial revolution has been fueled by fossil fuels and farmers (coming off the farm into the factory).   The increase in global natural gas and oil reserves along with the many steps that have been taken to increase fossil fuel efficiency are encouraging.

A September 2013 New York Times article “How We Learned Not to Guzzle” by Ralph Cavanagh says:  Over the past 40 years, we have found so many innovative ways to save energy that we more than doubled the economic productivity of our oil, natural gas and electricity.

Government data indicate that our energy-saving efforts already have yielded some amazingly good news. Our factories and businesses are producing substantially more products and value with less energy, which goes to the heart of the president’s climate strategy. In fact, energy use in the United States has been dropping since 2007, and last year’s total was below the 1999 level, even though the economy grew by more than 25 percent from 1999 to 2012, adjusted for inflation.

At the same time, the amount of oil we are using in our vehicles, homes and businesses continued to decline last year, down 14 percent from a peak in 2005. Surprisingly, oil use was lower in 2012 than in 1973 (when the nation’s economy was only about a third of its current size). The main reason is that we are demanding better mileage from our vehicles and driving them less.  (see a link to the entire article below).

Third… the value analysis from Keppler Asset Management shows an implicit three-to-five-year projection that the Equally Weighted World Index is expected to rise to 12,259 from its current level of 7,401 in three to five years. This corresponds to a compound annual total return estimate of 13.4 % in local currencies – up from 12.8 % last quarter. The upper-band estimate of 14,710 by June 30, 2017 implies a compound annual total return of 18.7 %, while the lower-band estimate of 9,807 corresponds to a compound total return of 7.3 % p.a.

Keppler Value

Click on charts to enlarge.  Read more about Keppler’s best value stock markets below.

In other words, the stock market should be good.

Fourth… our long term analysis of 30 year stock market cycles suggests that we are in the 13th year of a bear cycle that normally last 15 years so should expect a bull market to start fairly soon and last until about 2030.

dow-chart

Fifth…there is a new wave of technology that is changing the global socio-economic efficiency.   This has the potential  to create the buzz and exciting news that will stimulate non thinking expansion and reduces non thinking fear at the .com bubble news in the 1990s.  Those who do think can take advantage of the values created by distortions from the thundering herd as it stampedes up or down.

Sixth…the new wave of communications ability and technology allows society to tap productive markets (older people) who normally would leave the work place and become a social expense.

Seventh…changes in weather and the reorganization of emerging economies such as the Middle East will continue to stimulate the economy.

That is seven pieces of good news.

However, there are three negative forces we’ll want to avoid:

NF#1: The same technology that helps the economy also helps those in charge of the technology take advantage of the public.  We can see this in the New York Times article “The Rich Get Richer Through the Recovery” by Annie Lowrey that says:  The top 10 percent of earners took more than half of the country’s total income in 2012, the highest level recorded since the government began collecting the relevant data a century ago, according to an updated study by the prominent economists Emmanuel Saez and Thomas Piketty.

The top 1 percent took more than one-fifth of the income earned by Americans, one of the highest levels on record since 1913, when the government instituted an income tax.

The figures underscore that even after the recession the country remains in a new Gilded Age, with income as concentrated as it was in the years that preceded the Depression of the 1930s, if not more so.

NYT chart

To read “The Rich Get Richer” see the link below.

NF#2: During the last 15 year bear cycle the US and many other nations have badly increased debt.

US National debt alone is now near 17 trillion dollars or over $148,000 per person. That’s just Federal debt. State, County, City, Personal all make this worse.

debt clock

See more US debt data at the www.usdebtclock.org link below

The US is not unique in this problem and has led many governments to confiscate pensions.

The Christian Science Monitor article “European nations begin seizing private pensions” by Jan Iwanik shows how governments have started tackling private pension funds in a stronger way.  The article says:  Hungary, Poland, and three other nations take over citizens’ pension money to make up government budget shortfalls.

People’s retirement savings are a convenient source of revenue for governments that don’t want to reduce spending or make privatizations.

The most striking example is Hungary, where last month the government made the citizens an offer they could not refuse. They could either remit their individual retirement savings to the state, or lose the right to the basic state pension (but still have an obligation to pay contributions for it). In this extortionate way, the government wants to gain control over $14bn of individual retirement savings.

The Bulgarian government has come up with a similar idea.

A slightly less drastic situation is developing in Poland.

The fourth example is Ireland. In 2001, the National Pension Reserve Fund was brought into existence for the purpose of supporting pensions of the Irish people in the years 2025-2050.  However, in March 2009, the Irish government earmarked €4bn from this fund for rescuing banks. In November 2010, the remaining savings of €2.5bn was seized to support the bailout of the rest of the country.

The final example is France. In November, the French parliament decided to earmark €33bn from the national reserve pension fund FRR to reduce the short-term pension scheme deficit.

Since that article, Poland, the largest of central Europe’s emerging economies, did take over many of the assets held by private pension funds, including treasury bonds, to a state vehicle.

Also in Cypress as part of a last-minute $13 billion deal with international lenders to prevent the country from financial collapse, deposit-holders with more than 100,000 euros will face big losses up to 40% of their assets.

This is not likely to happen in the US. There hasn’t been a depositor haircut in the U.S. since the Great Depression.

Instead the government has been putting pressure on private pension managers to be safer and has been subtly coercing them to invest in the US dollar and US bonds.  Because the US is a currency issuer the government can create conditions so more dollars are printed which leads to the third problem.

NF#3:  Terribly weak dollar fundamentals. The one thing I have learned about stocks and currencies is you can never predict what will happen short term as both markets are ruled by emotion.

However you can also be sure that long term the markets will be ruled by fundamentals and four important currency fundamentals are:

* Trade Balance and Current Account
* Federal Debt as % of GDP
* Federal Deficit as % of GDP
* Interest rate
* Inflation

The US is among the worst of any developed nation in four of the five these fundamentals.

Concerns over these weak fundamentals are compounded by the history of the dollar after the 1980s recession. The dollar showed a strength that was not supported by fundamentals in the 1980s with a steep decline after.

granfather economics chart

This chart is from a great report about dollar fundamentals at Financial Sense Editorials.(See link below)

These facts suggest that the dollar could have a serious decline in forex parity and purchasing power and should not be trusted as the only currency held.

This is what we look at in the multi currency sessions of our International Investing and Business seminar October 4-5-6.  There is always someone telling us that it’s the best times. There is always someone warning it’s the worst.

Our seminars explains why the times are both and looks at how to take advantage of the new wisdoms and avoid damage from the old foolishness.

This is our 45th year of creating ways to serve. to earn and diversify our savings and investments to protect against loss of the dollar’s purchasing power.

We share what we are doing and what one can do in small and large ways at our seminars and courses.

Read more about our philosophy about how to earn and invest below.

Gary

Multi Currency Value Investing Seminar

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

Read more about our philosophy about how to earn and invest at PIEC Investing

How We Learned Not to Guzzle by Ralph Cavanagh

Read about the best value stock markets here.

Read The Rich Get Richer click here  US Debt Data is at www.usdebtclock.org/

European nations begin seizing private pensions

Read about the dollar’s demise at Financial Sense Editorials.

Protect Your Wealth, Savings & Pension With t1/2


Protect your wealth by understanding the half-life (t1/2) of the US Dollar.

According to Wikipedia, Half-life shown as (t½) is the time required for a quantity to fall to half its value as measured at the beginning of the time period. In physics, it is typically used to describe a property of radioactive decay, but may be used to describe any quantity which follows an exponential decay.

There are three aspects for having and keeping wealth.   First, earn,  second, spend less than you earn and third… invest the savings so they increase future spending power.

We’ll look at the earning aspect in a moment… but first let’s talk about the half life of the US dollar because most of us will at be earning and saving (or at least accounting) with the greenback… which has been proven to lose purchasing power.

This means we have to keep earning and profiting more just to financially stand still.

One way to stay abreast of how much we lose is by tracking the half life of the dollar as compared to the price of gold.

Our long time friend Charles Vollum produces the Pricedingold.com website and wrote this about the half life of the dollar: Since 2001, the US Dollar has lost half of its value every 4 years. Of course, its actual value dithers about, sometimes more than this theoretical value and sometimes less, but as you can see from the chart below, it tracks very close to this decay line.

dollar gold chart

This chart is from www.Pricedingold.com

Charles continues:   The chart below also projects this line into the future, giving a reasonable guess at what the continuation of the last decade’s policies will do to the USD’s value in gold terms.

dollar gold chart

See the entire “Half Price of the Dollar” article at pricedingold.com here.

Half of our October International Investing and Business course October 4-5-6 will review ways to protect purchasing power with precious metals, commodities, real estate and multi currency investments. Thomas Fischer who is moving from Jyske in Copenhagen to ENR Asset Management in Montreal will join us to look at global portfolios and multi currency investments.

blue-ridge-leaf-change

October leaf change at our North Carolina farm.

Half of our International Investing and Business Seminar is about how to earn through your own business and the other half is about how to save and invest beyond the US dollar.

We hope to see you there.  October 4, 5, 6 in the Blue Ridge.

Gary

Multi Currency Value Investing Seminar

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

 

Micro Business & Multi Currency Abundance


Our recent International Business & Investing Seminar looked at the micro business & multi currency abundance we have ahead of us now.

gary-scott-seminar

We met at Jefferson Landing and enjoyed autumn’s blaze of colors.

Little Horse Creek view

An October view from our North Carolina farm.

Life is such an analogy and nature is reality’s artist showing us truth in so many ways…. everyday.  This picture of golden richness is that time of reality’s greatest beauty as it also heralds the darkest hour.

This was the theme of our International Business & Investing Seminar last weekend at Jefferson Landing here in the mountains.  We looked at how so much news is focused on doom and gloom but why and how this is the richest of times for opportunity.

We first looked at the benefits of the economic cleansing we have seen in the past few years… how housing has become affordable… how big government is being exposed…how labor costs are reaching competitive levels and how North Americans and Europeans are beginning to work harder and save again… how they are seeing the importance of relying on themselves instead of big brother.

The delegates at the seminar enjoyed perfect autumn weather and as we examined why we should be afraid but also bold.

Why the Fear?

Do not get me wrong.  We let our delegates know that not all the news is good.  Many in the world will suffer from the evolution that is taking place.

An October Bloomberg news article entitled “Falling Wages Threaten Consumer Spending” shows an avenue of suffering when it says: Ninety-one percent of people in the U.S. labor force have a job. That may be the extent of the good news for these Americans, whose incomes tell a darker story.

Take-home pay, adjusted for prices, fell 0.3 percent in August, the third decrease in five months, and personal income dropped for the first time in two years, the Commerce Department reported last week. The declines followed news from the Census Bureau that median household income in 2010 fell to $49,445, the lowest in more than a decade, and the poverty rate jumped to 15.1 percent, a 17-year high.

Salary and benefit growth “has been going nowhere,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “One of the key reasons the recovery has stalled is that real incomes have fallen.”

The earning power of the average American male’s age has dropped back to 1950’s levels.

The October 10, 2011 New York Times article “Recession Officially Over, U.S. Incomes Kept Falling” by Robert Pear shows another bout of economic pain:   In a grim sign of the enduring nature of the economic slump, household income declined more in the two years after the recession ended than it did during the recession itself, new research has found.

Between June 2009, when the recession officially ended, and June 2011, inflation-adjusted median household income fell 6.7 percent, to $49,909, according to a study by two former Census Bureau officials. During the recession — from December 2007 to June 2009 — household income fell 3.2 percent.

Many with old mindsets could have a hard time.

Reasons for being bold now!

Let’s look at the good.  A reader recently forwarded one of those emails I never pass on but this one began with a note that is so applicable to this message that I have included this excerpt: ONE AT A TIME.  Yesterday I was in WalMart looking for a wastebasket. I found some made in China for $6.99. I didn’t want to pay that much so I asked the lady if they had any others. She took me to another department and they had some at $2.50 made in USA. They are just as good. Same as a kitchen rug I needed. I had to look, but I found some made in the USA and they were $3.00 cheaper.  We are being brain washed that everything that comes from China and Mexicois cheaper. Not so. That is also why I don’t buy cards at Hallmark anymore. They are made in China and are expensive. I buy them at Dollar Tree….50 cents each and made in US .

I have not researched this and don’t know how this works as I haven’t been buying anything much lately…but the sentiment is well said and the factors behind it true. We are seeing big changes as US workers become more competitive….and this is not bad.

A Rising US Dollar

At the seminar we looked at why this is time for a short term US dollar rebound as well.  A recent New York Times article on the US dollar confirms our thinking and says: For the better part of the past decade, the American dollar has been the 98-pound weakling of the foreign exchange world. It has lost value against almost every other global currency — not just the euro, pound and yen but even the Romanian new leu and the Latvian lats.

Driven largely by the Federal Reserve’s policy of printing dollars to help spur a healthy economic recovery that remains stubbornly elusive, the dollar, weighed against a basket of other currencies, hit a 40-year low in May 2011.

But betting against the dollar may no longer be such a safe play — not necessarily because of any sudden macroeconomic shifts but because of a sense that the long dollar sell-off may have finally gone too far.

The dollar’s bounce, though too brief to be called a trend, has not been driven by any noticeable improvement in America’s economic fundamentals. Indeed, the faint but real risk that Congress will fail to reach agreement on raising the legal ceiling on government borrowing only underscores the still parlous state of the American economy.

At the same time, unemployment in the United States remains stubbornly high, at 9 percent. And there is a strong belief among big money investors that the Obama administration as well as the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, tacitly welcome a cheaper dollar to spur exports and encourage American manufacturers to hire more aggressively.

Opportunity from a Stronger US dollar.

Thomas Fischer, Senior VP for Jyske Global Asset Management, spoke about how their low risk portfolio currently holds 40% dollar cash.   This was not because JGAM believes in a long term strong US dollar but because they expect the stronger US dollar will create extra buying opportunities  in the near future.

We looked at why equities provide the greatest opportunity for long term profit.  We shared with delegates a study by Dimson, Marsh & Staunton at London Business School on long-term global equity performance from 1900 to 2009. Over a 110-year period, 19-country capitalization-weighted stock index total return of 8.6% per annum in U.S. dollars compared to a 4.7 % return per annum for the equivalent 19 country bond index. Allowing for inflation, 3.0% per annum real returns of 5.4% and 1.7% per annum,  the global stock portfolio grew 331 fold vs. global fixed-income which grew only 6 fold.

We also viewed how the current downturn has totally been expected.  This site has continually reviewed the 15 to 17 year economic cycle as outlined by Austrian economist, Joseph Shumpeter. The global economy (and US stock market) enjoys an approximately 15 year bull…. then about a 15 year bear (a period of no growth) and then moves back to start a 15 year bull.   These stock market bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.

15-year-economic-cycle-chart

At this seminar we looked at how the US equity market is currently about 12 to 13 years into the 15 year trend.

We then compared the last 15 year bear cycle that began in 1968 and saw how in the 12 years from 1968 to Oct 1980 the S&P 500 index was almost flat having dropped from 103 to 102.

Then we saw how from the beginning of this bear cycle that began Oct. 2000 into 2011,  the S&P was again almost flat from 1249 to 1150.

Then we looked at this chart from Moore Research Center, Inc. to see what to expect from Oct. 2011 to Oct. 2012 if that period compares with the same period in the cycle.  The historical story tells us to expect little growth in the next year.

Notice the similarities between the market in early 1980 (Blue Line) and the current S & P 500 below.  There is also a strong synchronicity between the S&P 500 and the MSCI World Index below (covers all shares globally).

s&P chart

Moore Research showing S&P 1980 to 1982.

charts

S&P 500 Index for the last year.

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MSCI World Index for the last year.

The S&P 500 dropped about 9.6% from October 1980 to October 1981 and rose 3.7% from, October 1980 to October 1982.

If this cycle theory were to repeat itself neatly… we should expect a downwards drift for the next 12 months then just a tiny bit of recovery in 2013.

Here is the good news.  From 1982 forward the market experienced steady growth for the next 17 years.  By October 1994 the S&P 500 was 460 and by October 1999, 1470… when the next bear cycle began.

chart

Again if the theory repeats… around October 2013 the S & P will once again begin to rise.  This is when the next bull market begins and we can be sure that the next rise will be due to good economic news.

So hang on!  Plus be sure to look for what new exciting evolutions will once again jump start social economic expansion.

These broad trends are not very exact… but history strongly suggests the bear market we have seen since 1999 is normal… the worst is over but we could see some added downwards drift this next year.  However, a great time to buy!

Perfect Time for A Micro Business

We also shared ways to earn income from micro business start ups.  There has never been a better time to have a lifestyle micro business.  Technology and rapid change in the way the world works all favor small mobile flexible businesses.

We looked at ways that readers can have a small micro business in global finance.   Another way is with environmentally safe organic chemistry.

Another idea we looked at was how to have an export business.  One export is Ecuador Flowers and we shared 50 Ecuador roses with the delegates at the seminar.

See how to get a FREE recording of this October seminar and how to attend our  Mt. Dora Florida, February, 2012 International Investing and Business Seminar.

On the subject of Ecuador roses now is the time to order 50 Halloween roses.  These orange bi colors are called High & Mighty.

gary-scott-seminar

To give you an idea what you can do with 50 roses, we had 50 roses at the seminar. I gave a dozen of them away at the hotel but now have…

gary-scott-seminar

some at the entrance to our house, plus…

gary-scott-seminar

bouquets and…

gary-scott-seminar

numerous small…

roses

arrangements like…

roses

these.

Once again on the subject of Roses, these are not economic days of wine and roses…these are days of risk management when global economics look bleak.  However, such times are the most fertile beds of opportunity for those who recognize the true nature of all cycles and take this time of change as a time to accumulate great value and future potential opportunity.

Gary

Order fresh Ecuador Roses Delivered to your home by Fedex by October 19th for delivery Tuesday October 25th.

Order the 50 fresh cut Halloween roses for $91 here.

Save $53.  Order 100 fresh cut Halloween roses for $129 here.

Save $41. Subscribe Ecuador Living Premium Service (normally $119).   Get your subscription and first Halloween rose order at half price. $169 total.

See more about ordering fresh Ecuador roses here.

Gary

Join The International Club

We have set our schedule for 2012. Learn how to attend as many of our seminars in 2012 (plus our last 2011 seminar in November) free.

Read New York Times articles

The Dollar

Recession Officially Over, U.S. Incomes Kept Falling

 

Ginseng & Ecuador – the Dollar – Q&A


ecuador-lilies This is the last day to order Ecuador lilies for Easter. See details here.

See what Ginseng, Ecuador  and the US Dollar have in common in this Q&A.

ginseng

Ginseng

All questions this Saturday relate to inflation. This is good because inflation is here and it probably will grow worse.

#1: BRIC countries leaving the dollar standard.

#2: What’s up with Ecuador prices.

#3:  Why Ginseng?

Question #1:  Are BRIC countries leaving the US dollar standard? A reader wrote: Hi Gary:   If you have been following the Meeting of the BRICS  (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) the New Economic Power Houses, in the last few days, they have voiced their concern about the Dollar being the dominant currency.  In fact, they have made it clear that the World Economic Order needs a new Monetary System.

If this happens what happens to all the dollar denominated investments?  In particular, since Ecuador uses the dollar as its national currency, how will the country and its foreign investors be affected, if the Dollar is relegated to only a national currency? A concerned investor.

My Reply: This is pretty ancient news that a lot of countries no longer like the US dollar standard. They fuss and fume, but on the other hand, what is the solution?  The bottom line… is that the USA is still a very stable democracy… it is the military might and is still incredibly rich.  There is no other currency that can come close at this time to being the standard.
A global reserve currency has to be huge… and strong. No currency does that at this time so the dollar wins by default and inertia.  Expect a slow departure from the greenback. Other countries will expand their reserves to hold more gold… and a basket of other currencies.  The purchasing power of almost all currencies will fall… but at faster or slower rates.
The way to protect your purchasing power is with a multi currency portfolio.

Question #2: What’s up with Ecuador prices? Another reader wrote:   You have confused me.   Original updates tell of how inexpensive it is to live in Ecuador, and Cuenca especially.   Today’s update tells of $24.00 per person breakfasts.  I had planned on coming to Cuenca in Sept or October.   Second thoughts are starting to infiltrate my mind with updates like the one I received today.  Please shed more light on a retirees cost of living.  You also indicate a $1,000 figure is now a $2,000 amount for average living.  Please advise.
My reply.There are several problems here.  First, we have nearly 5,000 pages at our website posted over the past 15 years.  Many readers tap into old news at the site without looking at dates.  Those who came with us to Ecuador 15 years ago have enjoyed incredible appreciation on their property.
Today… between inflation, the falling US dollar and a heavy immigration of expats creating enhanced demand on real estate… the low hanging fruit is gone.  Yes, you can still live in Ecuador for $700 a month.  Millions of Ecuadorians do.  But life at that level is different than what North Americans are used to and not so easy to attain for gringos.
We used to say you could live well for $700 a month IF you owned your home and lived like a king for $1,000 a month.  Those times have passed. To live like a king is more likely a cost of $2,000 a month.
Ecuador is not immune from inflation.  The economy there is just starting from a lower threshold. You can still get better food… better accommodations…. better help…. better health care at much lower costs.  Yet the cost of living is nowhere as low as before and we should expect it to rise.  Inflation is global.

This is why we feature courses on how to earn anywhere in the world.  Many who planned to live off Social Security or pensions may have to supplement that income before inflation once again subsides.
See more on how to have your own micro business below.
My belief is that the current greatest bargains are on the coast and the hotbed of activity (as this site has predicted for a decade)  is in the Bahia area now that the bridge over the Chone Estuary is complete.
Question #3:  Why Ginseng?  Dear Gary, There is American, Korean and Russian Ginseng. Korean is quite strong and not recommended for women. American Ginseng grown in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota is considered the best for women. The nutritional and healing properties of ginseng depend on the soil nutrition. Since it is the root that is harvested, how long does one wait to harvest the plant’s root?  A year or 3? Is it sold by weight or by individual root? Do you have a photo of what the Ginseng plant looks like?

My Reply: One business sector that I believe will grow a lot in the years ahead is agriculture.  Ginseng is one crop that benefits in two ways. First, it grows on north facing mountain slopes in North America which is still some of the least expensive land for sale in Small Town USA.    Second, the demand comes from China, one of the greatest contributors to inflation.   This means that as inflation rises… so too will the price of ginseng.

The price of ginseng as an agricultural crop will rise and fall and the price for good quality, dry ginseng will be different in seven or eight years which is the time it takes to bring a crop to harvest.  Over the last five years, ginseng has been selling from $250 to $500 per pound.  Price variance due to quality and the difference between wild and commercial ginseng is very substantial more than with most crops. Ginseng prices exploded up in 2007 when wild ginseng hit close to $1,000/lb for dried and woods-grown ginseng.   Wild-simulated ginseng roots fetched $350 to $750/lb dried, depending on the age and quality of the root. This price trend is likely to stay and strengthen because China… the big buyer of ginseng is growing in wealth.

There you have it… Ecuador… beat inflation by moving to a lower threshold for inflation.  Ginseng… a business likely to boom during inflation and multi currency investing… something we all should do to protect against the US dollar’s fall.

Gary

Learn more about investing in ginseng and Small Town USA. Learn more about multi currency investing. Learn more about  living, investing and earning in Ecuador all at our upcoming June 24 to 26, North Carolina International Investing and Business Seminar.

Trading Down Part VII


Trading Down Part VII

This series has looked at why a huge new economic era will benefit US and Ecuador real estate.  We have also looked at a different Ecuador property for sale each step of the way.

See a link to see this message’s Cotacachi Ecuador property below.

First, this last report on “Trading Down” asks “What do the following have in common with big business and trading down?”

Ecuador and US real estate…

photo

Why would Merri and I buy a beat up 180 year old inn in Ecuador?

Christmas trees and Mexicans?

photo

Ashe County is one of the top Christmas producers in the US. Here is a Christmas Tree farm next to our farm.

North Carolina farm roads…

photo

We have put in miles of road on our farm.

Deer…

photo

Here is a nice buck I snapped sneaking though our woods.

Water…   

photo

We have a lot of water on our land… all running down the mountain.

Ecuador and US real estate… Christmas trees and Mexicans… North Carolina farm and roads… deer and water.

What do these all have in common with trading down?   What is their connection?  They are all connected because they all follow the same universal rule that follows the path of least resistance.

Christmas trees farms are everywhere in Ashe County.  Here they are being grown within the city limits of West Jefferson.  Because Christmas trees are cut and wrapped in late October, early November many Mexicans arrive in the mountains this time of year. We are seeing them everywhere.

They are following the path of least resistance to earn income and the flow north where there is work.

Photo floating to the left

We have put in over eight miles of roads on our farm shown in blue.

photo

Usually the first question people ask when visiting our farm is; “This is so remote how did you find this place”?   The second question is “How did you figure out where to put the roads?”

My answer to the road question is simple.  “I did not need a surveyor or engineer.  We have a lot of deer on the farm. I simply followed the deer trails.”

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Here’s two does I photoed feeding in our front yard.

The deer follow the path of least resistance so their trails produce roads that run as level as you can get.

The entire farm is a reflection of this universal rule… not a farm in the Blue Ridge sense, but a…

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global headquarters with a…

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barn like seminar hall hung over Little Horse Creek…

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barns converted to apartments and…

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farm houses and…

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nestled on the creek and…

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tucked in…

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remote parts of the woods, with…

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cozy accommodations so guests from around the world can…

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meet to share global ideas about health and wealth… investing and business.

Those who grew up here are selling their farms so they can move into the city and those like Merri and me from the city are moving to the farms… as technology… cars… trains…. planes… the internet and low cost communications change their utility.

All these… like water following the path of least resistance and flow…

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downhill.

This brings us to the US.   The price of American real estate… compared to European and Japanese has dropped enormously in the last several years.  Even more than it seems when the devaluation of the US dollar is factored in.

This gives America an advantage… cheap offices… cheap gas stations… cheap homes… cheap factories.

Trading down is the process of mankind following the path of least material resistance. Trading down is the process of  big business following the path of least resistance.

Energy of industrialization has been run on  human fuel, farmers moving from rural to urban and suburban environments.  From the farm to the factory as they dramatically improve productivity at a very low cost.  Their enhanced wages increase their consumption.   In short the burst of increased affluence over the past several centuries has been fueled by cheap labor enhanced mainly by fossil fuels.

In this era past big business followed the path of least resistance wherever labor was cheapest in the world.

Globalization and improved technology plus a serious 2008 recession reduced the costs of US labor and enhanced the likelihood that the eleven American benefits we have reviewed in this seven part series will again help the USA be an important leader of mankind into the next socio-economic era.

What About Ecuador and Trading Down?

Ecuador gains from this trading down process in several ways.   First Ecuador real estate and labor were really inexpensive to begin.   Since Ecuador uses the US dollar as its currency, it benefits from the greenback’s fall as Ecuador real estate, labor and debt become less expensive.

In this process of trading down, technology creates a circular flow… just like the flow of farmers to the city and urban dwellers to the farm.  Immigrants move to America as Americans (who no longer have to labor) move out of the US to a less expensive and less cumbersome lifestyle.

The two big losers in the current soci0-economic pact are lenders to the USA and those on fixed incomes.

Ecuador real estate potential is enhanced by increased inflation and this is why Ecuador real estate investing makes sense. Messages at this site monitor investments in Ecuador.

The collapse of the US economy made real estate in America more affordable… but reduced income, jobs and wealth also.  This has forced the US government to stimulate the economy at the expense of the US dollar.  This will cause inflation.

This is forcing many middle class Americans to move to less expensive areas in the US and abroad.

60 million baby boomers have begun to retire.  Many of their pensions and social security will be severely squeezed by inflation, leaving these people with one of five options.

#1: Keep working
#2: Move to less expensive areas within the US
#3: Export their retirement
#4: Live in near poverty
#5: Die

This is one reason I  believe in Ecuador.  Imagine this. 60 million boomers will retire over the next 20 years. We boomers are the most spoiled group of consumers as a demographic class that has ever existed on earth. We were promised the world. We were given the world. Now the magic is about to disappear.

Assume that 10% of these boomers will decide to move to less expensive countries. That’s 6 million people. Where is the most likely place to go? Eastern Europe offers great potential but is a long distance from the US.

Estimating the Number of Americans Who Move Abroad.

My estimates at 105 may also be low. An article in Barrons entitled, “A new life in Panama” by Bob  Adams tells of  a silent immigration of Americans retirees and more, seeking to  work and live in other nations.

I have been writing and speaking and urging people to consider an international life for not quite 40 years. Yet the scale of the  immigration that is taking place now surprises even me.  The author of this article did a survey with over 115,000 respondents.

Any relocating for less than two years or because of military, government or their jobs was eliminated.  The survey uncovered uncovered that 1.6 million  households have already made the decision to relocate. 1.8 million households are seriously considering relocating and 7.7 million households are somewhat seriously considering relocating. The survey suggests that in total, an astounding 10% of American households are considering relocating abroad and another 10% are considering owning a home to either vacation or live part time abroad or 20% of Americans are n the move!

More surprisingly the largest group which is making these plans are in households aged 25 to 34.

If this survey is anywhere near correct (I will assume that Barron’s vetted this at least a bit), then the wave of Americans headed abroad is larger than I believed.

So where will these Americans (Canadians, British, Australians, Kiwis and Continentals who are leaving their homelands as well) go?

Canada is out…too expensive and too cold. Most people will head south.

Mexico stands to be #1. Prices there have risen and there is a lot of anti-gringo sentiment.  After all there have been numerous Mexican-American wars. The building of a fence across the border will not help either.

The law and order crisis in Mexico has also grown. Yet it’s still probably the number one benefactor of this flow due to location.

Cuba, when it opens, will be ripe and good as well. A great place to buy when you can assume no negative political circumstances. The low end Caribbean is also good except for those darn hurricanes that will put lots of people off…plus many water and transportation problems and the fact that few of the islands have a real infrastructure.

Panama is good. There is a lot  of English spoken, many yanks already there, but weather is lousy if you want to be in town (hot and humid) and prices are no longer low.

We see many Americans now moving from Panama to Ecuador.

Ditto for Costa Rica.  The rest of Central America lacks infrastructure though there are some nice gringo settlements although they are expensive.

Colombia and Venezuela are the first nations with the potential for full fledged economies  and infrastructures after Panama and Mexico. They can be wonderful places but security and political risks stop most from going there for now.  If the security/drug/crime issues are resolved and image cleans up…go buy in Colombia.  If the political system shifts in Venezuela this could be a great opportunity.

Argentina & Uruguay? Both Buenos Aries and Montevideo should do well also.  They are further from North America but both have very European flavors.

Ecuador, 3 hours and 45 minutes from the US will benefit as the first nation with a full infrastructure and really low cost of living.

If Ecuador gets just 10% of six million Americans who leave the US, imagine what this means to this nation of 11 million.  This is more than a 5% increase in population. However look at what it means in dollars!

According to the CIA World Fact Book, Ecuador has a Gross Domestic Income of $4,300 per annum per person. That makes a total GDP of $47,300,000,000.

Imagine what happens if the 600,000 gringos have an average income of $18,000 a year per person. That adds $10,800,000,000. This is an annual income that almost equals 20% of the entire national GDP! This is one reason why Merri and I include Latin equities in our investment portfolio and are buying more and more real estate in Ecuador.

Every cloud has a silver lining and two clouds casting shade on the greenback’s value are liberal money supply and political interference to support presidential elections. The silver lining comes in the form of profits made in places where fed up Americans and Canadians decide to go when they leave home.

This is why we have purchased a hotel, an office building, 13 condos and houses, and a 900+ acre hacienda in Ecuador over the last 10 years.

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Our hacienda Rosaspamba.

What if the 11 benefits are not enough?

This report is about global diversification with the US and Ecuador as parts of an overall plan.

I believe the US debt is high and will cause the US dollar to fall, so this report is about being short American currency because the advancements in the US will be due in part to a declining greenback.

As one of the first Americans to write about being an international citizen, I am suspicious of my US enthusiasm.  But I am suspicious of Europe, China and India as well.

That is why since the release of my first book “Passport to International Profit” in the 1970s I have preached and practiced being a One Man Multinational.

The core message in “Passport to International Profit” was to become a one man multinational where you live in one country bank in another country and earn in another  a six point command posture which is to:

Let’s take this one step further. To have a fulfilling lifestyle make your residence in a place you love and want to be. Do not limit yourself to where you are or where you were born.

More than 40 years after we left the USA,  Merri and I still believe that being global is vital from an investing point of view and enlivening for one’s lifestyle.

This does not mean that the US should be excluded as a place to live or invest.

The 11 American benefits reviewed in this series suggests that the USA may remain a leader in the upcoming socio-economic evolution of “Trading Down”.

That is why Merri and I have increased the weighting of our portfolio in the USA.

That is also one reason why Merri and I love Ecuador as a place to own real estate and live.

Gary

Gain From Election Volatility

Here we are again… another election on its way… all the robo calls from politicians… the dirty tricks and the innumerable amounts of nonsense this vital process brings.

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the election process.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   A market correction is due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics has created an uncertain era.  Everyone has been shaken over the past three years whether they are pleased with the government or not.

Nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third if we see rising interest rates, this will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the strong US dollar and undervalue non dollar stock markets to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies are the best way to profit long term, through good politics and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.

However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 plus years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

finance.yahoo.com chart SLV

iShares Silver Trust (symbol SLV) from www.finance.yahoo.com

Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2019 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2109”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2019” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2019” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2109” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Gary

 

 

 

Wealth in Multi Currency Waves


There is wealth in catching multi currency waves.

See multi currency waves below.   Having captured just four would have made you one of the wealthiest people on earth.

We just completed our International Investment & Business Course in West Jefferson, North Carolina.

Here is what a few of the delegates wrote to me about this seminar.

“Thank you so much for your invitation to your seminar.  I was thoroughly impressed with your choice of speakers and your emphasis on ‘wholistic’ investing.”

“Gary,   Thanks for a great Seminar and a great afternoon tea.  I have met many ‘like minded’ folks this weekend.”

“We are grinning from ear to ear – pleased about the interest in his work and the positive flow of $.  Thanks so much for your southern hospitality as always, and the opportunity to get together again.  You are the best!  Hopefully you are giving the throat a well needed rest, and that the both of you are feeling the love and warmth and balancings we are sending your way.”

“Hello Gary,  I got back to Virginia at 1 AM yesterday and am finally catching up on paperwork today. This is the most fun that I’ve had in ages! I plan to spend this long weekend putting together the format, formulas, reading and figuring out the underlying financial concepts. Look forward to your data input.  Thank-you again for so much meme generosity.”

These courses look at how to invest and do business globally as well as how to prepare mentally and physically to succeed in times of rapid change.

Thomas Fischer speaks at many of our courses and often shares market waves that made some investors really rich.

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Here is Thomas speaking to a group at our North Carolina home.

The seven waves are:

1970s: Gold

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1980s: Nikkei 225

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1990s: Nasdaq

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2000s: Crude oil
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I reviewed seven multi currency waves I have followed over the last 42 years.

During the 42 years I have been investing abroad, I have enjoyed seven golden trends.

#1: 1970s Gold & Silver.

#2: Japan , Germany , Switzerland , England, Australia and Hong Kong .

#3: 1980s. The Tigers, Taiwan , Singapore Malaysia and South Korea  & Turkey .

#4: 1990s. South America (which led me to Ecuador).

#5: 2000s. China , India and Eastern Europe .

#6: Good Value Real Estate Throughout.

#7: Bet Against the US Dollar Throughout

The biggest of these seven trends has been the declining US dollar as this chart from the Grandfather Economic Report shows. The dollar drop has accompanied all the other trends.

multi-currency-chart

Now an eighth trend, perhaps the most powerful of them all, Green Investments is warming up.
We can see this in an excerpt from an article in yesterday’s USA Today Money Section entitled  “Tesla Motors stock finds buyers on first trading day”
by Kathleen Galligan which says:

DETROIT — Shares of Tesla Motors climbed in their trading debut Tuesday even though the carmaker that has never made money and has sold just 1,000 cars the entire time it’s been in business.

Tesla’s performance was a feat in a sour market that has forced many companies looking to raise funds through IPOs to accept lower prices to get deals done.
Investors snapped up Tesla’s shares even as the broader markets took a beating. The stock soared $6.89, or 40.5% from its offering price, to close at $23.89 — marking the second-biggest first-day gain among initial public offerings this year.
Tesla’s IPO came on a day when U.S. stocks fell more than 2% — following Asian and European markets lower — on worries that the economy is slowing. Tesla’s shares initially traded as high as $19, but quickly pared that gain. The company’s shares rose 99 cents, or 5.8%, to $17.99 in midday trading.
The company trades on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker “TSLA.”
This looks like a really bad investment to me.  Yet despite the fact that the market (as we recently warned here) is in a negative mode this share is performing well.
Why? Because green is hot.  The deterioration of our environment is a huge problem. Problems create opportunity and investors know it.
At the June North Carolina seminar we looked at seven places to invest now including green investments. They are:
•Multi Currency Interest Spreads
•Value Markets
•Emerging Markets
•Wellness
•Water Alternate Energy
•Truth & Cohesion
•Real Estate

Join me with Thomas Fischer in Copenhagen this August or next Ocotber in North Carolina.

The strong US dollar makes this the year to enjoy Europe and Thomas Fischer at Jyske just sent me this note: Gary due to the increasing US dollar, the fee for our August seminar in Copenhagen for Americans has dropped from about $2,050 to $1,700, a 15% discount.

I love attending these seminars because of the great speakers and this year one speaker will be Bjorn Lomborg known as the “Skeptical Environmentalist.”  See more on Lomberg here.

Another speaker will be Jeff Rubin. Rubin was the Chief Economist for CIBC, a North American investment bank for 20 years. See more about Rubin here.

One of the key note speakers is Kenneth Rogoff  who is the Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and Professor of Economics at Harvard University.

Rogoff is the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and has predicted “a bunch of sovereign defaults” in the next few years. He gave a warning that Greece is likely to be the first domino of several to fall.

Ezra Klein economic analyst for the Washington Post writes about Rogoff:  In their book “This Time is Different,” Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff construct the richest and most detailed history of financial crises that anyone has developed. Their data set covers 66 countries, five continents and eight centuries, and gives them an unparalleled ability to see patterns and predictors amongst different types of crashes. And see them they do. I spoke to Rogoff about the causes, trajectories and solutions to financial crises earlier today.

See details on how to join Merri and me at Jyske’s bi annual Copenhagen seminar here Global Wealth Management Seminar.

Some great things about the Copenhagen conference are the seminar of course…then there’s the stunning food and the wonderful visits included…This package includes:
accommodation at the Copenhagen Marriott Hotel for four nights, (25-28 August) including breakfast,  Reception and dinner at the bank’s Copenhagen offices, seminar fee and materials for the seminar sessions on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. full lunches on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, canal & harbour tour on Friday in the late afternoon, four-course gala dinner with entertainment and dancing on Saturday evening, and a Sunday excursion including lunch.

Merri and I always go on the excursion also to Silkebord with a drive out into the country, lovely food, picnic cruise and a chance to see the main office and the trading center.  This is always our most interesting, favorite and delightful conference…and we hope you will join us there!  We love the stroll along the harbor, the fresh air, wonderful meals and interesting people from all over the world.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

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There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

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The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

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Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

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Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

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Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

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The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

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Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Tesla Motors stock finds buyers on first trading day