Tag Archive | "us dollar"

Are Trillions Too Much?


Expect costs to rise and the US dollar to fall.

The US government has added trillions of dollars in debt and this is causing the US dollar to fall.

Our good value portfolio is gaining dramatically because all shares held are in non US dollar markets.

How much money can be dumped into a national (or the global) money supply before there is rampant, runaway inflation?

Answering this questions is perhaps the most important economic question we can face in the decade ahead.

The answer can help us prepare for either a deflationary or inflationary scenario.

NYT.com

A reader recently asked this question: Here’s a quick question I’ve been puzzling about… so we’re all very aware that the US, UK and many other governments have been borrowing literally TRILLIONS of dollars to support their economies during the pandemic – but where is that money all coming from? Who, even collectively has trillions sitting around waiting to be loaned? I cant imagine banks, investors, funds etc have that just waiting around to be loaned? So where does that come from ? Sorry if its a silly Q. I presume the answer is something along the lines that money just gets moved around and pulled out of lower return investments and loaned on better rates in bulk to governments. But then I wonder how they can do that so quickly. Presumably agreements in place mean they cant just pull trillions from one sources and reinvest it in another at the drop of a hat. But seemingly they can?  Thanks!

This is a good question and the answer is not one that’s much understood, partly because it seem so outrageous.

That money is created by the Federal Reserve Bank or the Bank of England or the EU central bank, mostly by the push of a button.

The US the government gets money in three ways; tax, borrow or print (ie push a button nowadays).

When it needs more than borrowers (such as Japanese, Chinese, Middle Eastern, US investors and governments) have available, they use a technique called “Fed Accommodation”.

In simple terms the Fed just increases its balance sheet by entering that fact into its computers. In other words it says… “we have more money”.

Then with this new money it created out of thin air, it buys the government bonds.

There is more sophistication to this as the Fed also creates money by lowering reserves that banks have to have or lending the banks money (again by simply entering into their computer that they have more money). The banks then lend this on to the public which increases the money supply.

This week’s Wall Street Journal article “Behind the Vast Market Rally: A Tumbling Dollar” (1) shows how this creating of many makes the US dollar fall.

Investors are ramping up wagers on the falling currency, believing the surge in coronavirus cases will hamper U.S. business activity and drive even more government spending.  The dollar has made a sharp U-turn this summer following a long rally, confounding many traders but potentially adding fuel to this year’s surprising stock-market rebound.

The ICE Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, in July notched its worst month in nearly a decade and recently hit a two-year low. The fall extended a reversal that began in late March, spurred lately by ballooning worries that mounting coronavirus cases will stall the U.S. economic rebound, even as growth accelerates in countries from China to Germany.

wsj.com

Big-name investors such as Ray Dalio and Jeffrey Gundlach have recently said publicly that the flood of U.S. government spending being injected into the financial system could eventually stoke inflation, eroding consumers’ purchasing power. Surging budget deficits tend to make investors less likely to hold a country’s currency. Fitch Ratings on Friday revised its credit rating outlook for the U.S. to negative from stable, though it maintained its top, triple-A rating.

At the same time, the currency’s slide is adding further support to the booming market rally, lifting stocks and commodities. A weaker dollar boosts multinational companies, which see their products get more competitive abroad and can more easily convert overseas profits into dollars. It also makes products and investments that are priced in the currency cheaper for overseas investors, supporting demand for a host of financial assets. U.S. stocks have climbed near five-month highs recently, while raw materials are paring much of their 2020 decline.

“These things are denominated in dollars, and the dollar is getting crushed,” said Christopher Stanton, chief investment officer of Sunrise Capital Partners. He expects the trend to continue and is directly wagering against the currency, betting on gains in the euro against the dollar and buying gold, which some investors are using as an alternative store of value. Gold recently climbed to all-time highs for the first time since 2011.

The US is a poor value market, so all of the investments in our Good Value portfolio are in NON US dollar markets.  This is adding extra profit, that’s safer because of the value and  because this portfolio pays a much higher average dividend than the US market.

Gary

Protect Your Wealth From a US Dollar Loss

Here are three steps to multi currency profits.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve and increase our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make you smarter than the smartest man in the world.

sir issac newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market.  His comment was “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence of value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why the data we use in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) is created by  mathematicians not economists.

I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline so you can use math, not emotion to protect and increase your wealth.

There are time tested mathematical systems that can help you know when to take profits that maximizes gains and minimizes loss.

These systems help you seek value but also create disciplined exit strategies because one of the toughest decisions most of us have is to know when to sell a rising or falling share.

Human nature makes it harder to let winners run, than to cut loses.

To easily spot good value and stick to it, we use Keppler Asset Management  as our first source of data.

Keppler’s analysis begins with a continual researches of corporate information on thousands of shares in 46 major stock markets. Keppler compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Keppler explains why a Top Value Country Selection Strategy for equities is important and says in his analysis: Among the generally accepted reasons for taking a global perspective in investments is the historical fact that no nation can maintain economic and political pre-eminence ad infinitum.

Studies have shown that, regardless of the investor’s national market and currency, diversified global equity portfolios, over longer periods, offer higher returns at lower risk than investments in national markets.

Keppler Asset Management Inc. (KAM) was  founded by Michael Keppler in 1992.  KAM is an SEC–registered investment advisory firm dedicated to finding and exploiting investment opportunities in the global equity markets. Based in New York, they advise institutional investors worldwide and help manage published mutual funds with total assets exceeding two billion US dollars. Plus they advise many private pension funds by specializing in active quantitative portfolio strategies that aim to deliver superior long-term performance and seek to limit risk through a firm commitment to value.

Starting in 2009, KAM was named Best Fund Company in the Fund category, five years in a row, by Capital, a leading German business magazine.

That’s my simplicity secret for keeping track of where to invest.  Using Keppler’s data has served me well for 25 years.  This is an effective easy system that does not requires a lot of time and avoids being drowned in a sea of conflicting opinions about what investment to make next.

More good news is that Keppler does not manage individual accounts and though SEC registered and headquartered in New York, does not mange funds for US customers.  That means that not many US investors are tapped into the information we use.

That’s why I created our Purposeful Investing Course, one of the few, if not the only sources of Keppler analysis for individual investors.

Here is how to tap into this valuable information on a no risk basis right now.

The Purposeful Investing Course combines Keppler analysis with research on low cost, good value country ETFs.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 16 country ETFs, along with precious metals.   This is also why this position has hardly changed in the past five years. During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 16 shares and have traded only six times.

This portfolio above is based on stock price-to-value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of 16 country ETFs. Each ETF  covers  one of the stock markets that are undervalued.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally hold now.

70% of the equities is diversified into iShares ETFs that represent Keppler’s nine good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Austria, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the equities are invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Malaysia, Mexico and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The big bonus.  You get paid more now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not right now.

This chart from the New York Times article “The Mystery of High Stock Prices” (1) shows that equities pay a higher yield than bonds.

wsj.com

Most Important, Get Paid the Most Now!

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact the chart below shows that US shares pay one of the lousiest yields of the 46 stock markets we monitor around the world.

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.91%.  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.6% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Nine solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay 71% higher yield, 3.27% compared to the US yield of 1.91%.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years. 

This strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term dividend income right now.

In a moment, I’ll show how to push that yield to 4.07% per annum without adding additional risk.

keppler62020

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only three times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top (or neutral in the case of Canada and Australia) value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Pi strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

I am updating my plan to increase my average yield to as much as 4.07%.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The average yield of these nine markets combined was 3.27% as of June 2020.  By replacing the three lowest yielding markets, Austria (.64%), Germany (1.83%)  and Japan (2.51%)  with two better yielding neutral markets Australia (4.57%) and Canada (3.54%) the average annual yield on the entire portfolio rises to 4.07%.

4.07% is 154% higher than the 1.6% you can currently earn on AA rated corporate bonds!

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) www.nytimes.com: mystery of high stock market prices

www.wsj.com: Behind the vast market rally a tumbling dollar

What Happens to the US Dollar Now?


The cut in the US dollar interest rate failed to stem panic on Wall Street.  We have seen enormous volatility since and should expect that to continue.

Fundamentally the lower interest rate created an even greater risk for the US market.

Screen Shot 2020-03-03 at 9.42.21 AM

Three factors have pushed the value and price of US stocks.  One factor is the belief in the US economy and earnings of US companies.

A second factor is that the belief that the price of US shares will rise.

The third factor has been the strength of the US dollar.

When the Fed cut the dollar’s interest rate, it weakened one of the foundations of the greenback’s strength.

The strength of a currency depends on several factors; trade and current account balance, national debt and budget balance are important factors.

One of the most important factors is the real interest rate (interest less inflation).

The US dollar has had a much higher interest rate than most major currencies and even after this FED cut, still has one of the highest interest rates of all (even at a miserly 1%).

The chart from Economist.com shows that even the British pound, facing the unknowns of Brexit, still pays only half the interest of the greenback. the Euro, Swiss franc and European currencies pay negative interest way below the dollar.

economist32020

Due to the huge US debt, the US dollar has been falling long term against other major currencies since the late 1960s.

There have been spikes of strength in this long term trend, but the path has steadily been down, down, down.

The two charts below show the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX).  This is a measure of the value of the United States dollar relative to six currencies, shown below.

Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight

Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight

Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight

Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight

Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight

Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight

The first chart from Wikipedia.com shows the long term loss of parity of the greenback.

wikipedia

In 2014, due to the strong performance of the US stock market and  the interest rate in other major currencies dropping near or into negative territory, the dollar rallied.

We can see the rally  better at this chart from www.investing.com.

investing.com

The dollar has weakened with the recent market correction.

Fed shifts that push the dollar interest rate down further, can erode the greenback’s strength even more.

Be sure to keep an eye on the US dollar.  A sagging buck can magnify a US stock market fall.

Gary

Coronavirus and the Stock Market Round One is Done

Coronavirus and the stock market.  Round Two is coming.

This virus and the market faced off in the spring.  The market won.  As the chart below shows, after a huge March 2020 collapse, by early June, the DJIA was back to its December 2019 level.

stock chart

The market’s back up, but history suggests that we’ll see volatility in the ten years ahead.

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  The .dotcom bubble burst just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

The market then went nowhere from 2000 to 2014.   Finally it started reaching new high levels.

Such decades long sideways movement after a severe correction is nothing new in the stock market.

So everything’s in order… except the pandemic.  The ravages of the coronavirus dramatically increase the unknown and this uncertainty is the greatest purveyor  of weakness that a stock market can have.

How do we maximize the return on your savings and investments during this extremely dangerous time?

For the past four and a half years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain income and appreciation from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course to determine which markets offer the best value so we can be in a perfect position to take advantage of stock market corrections all over the world.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

You can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but during the pandemic to introduce you to this online course  I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy, diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

 

Worried About Hidden Inflation?


Worried about inflation, a weak dollar, recession?

The bigger worry should be about missing the opportunity that such events bring.

wsj.com

Plus inflation might not be so hidden any more.

The chart from the last week’s Wall Street Journal article “U.S. Inflation Picks Up in July as Core Prices Strengthen” (1)  shows how the government can no longer hide the rising cost of living.

The article says: Back-to-back 0.3% monthly increases in the core consumer-price index mark the strongest two-month stretch since early 2006.

Inflation accelerated in July as an underlying measure of consumer prices posted its strongest two-month gain since early 2006.

The consumer-price index, which measures what Americans pay for items from mutton to motel rooms, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% last month from June, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Excluding volatile food and energy, so-called core consumer prices rose 0.3% for a second consecutive month, the strongest two-month gain in more than a decade.

The data marked the latest sign that inflation is finding its footing after a sluggish price gains earlier this year raised concerns at the Federal Reserve. The Fed lowered interest rates last month for the first time since 2008.

Despite statistics that have shown low inflation, rising costs of living have been with us. 

The contradiction between inflation statistics and cost reality exists because price increases have been hidden in a couple of ways.

First, because we living in a global economy and have the worst trade balance of any developed country, the strong US dollar has shifted the higher cost of living abroad.  A super charged greenback has kept prices of imports down.  American costs have been partly contained at the expense of our neighbor’s.

The chart below from the Economist (2) shows that the US current account balance (trade balance, after investments in and out of the country) is one of the worst in the world.  The 2.4% current account deficit as a percent of Gross Domestic Product  is only beat by six other countries, (Britain,  Canada, Indonesia, Pakistan, Chile and South Africa).

www.economist.com

The strong US dollar has shifted inflation abroad, as it reduces the cost (in dollar terms) of the goods America imports, but increases the cost of living for those abroad as US products are more expensive.  Asia’s incredible economic growth over the past two years has allowed that region to absorb those rising costs.

Now US tariffs and the natural slowing the the Emerging Asian countries is putting a strain everywhere.  Growth in Asian countries has slowed dramatically and this leads to restless populations (such as in Hong Kong).

“So what”, one might ask.  “That’s our neighbor’s problem.”

We like to ignore other countries problems but cannot as they lead to trade wars, immigration, security and military complications.

The second factor that has kept inflation down is low interest rates.  The cheap cost of borrowing has stimulated governments to grow increasingly more in debt.  This is building towards a crisis as well.

This week’s Wall Street Journal article “Budget Deficit on Path to Surpass $1 Trillion Under Trump” shows how acute this dilemma has become.

The article says (bolds are mine):  The federal budget deficit is growing faster than expected as President Trump’s spending and tax cut policies force the United States to borrow increasing sums of money.

The deficit — the gap between what the government takes in through taxes and other sources of revenue and what it spends — will reach $960 billion for the 2019 fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. That gap will widen to $1 trillion for the 2020 fiscal year, the Congressional Budget Office said in updated forecasts released on Wednesday.

The updated projections show deficits rising — and damage from Mr. Trump’s tariffs mounting — faster than the office had previously predicted. In May, the budget office said it expected a deficit of $896 billion for 2019 and $892 billion for 2020.

That damage would be even higher if not for lower-than-expected interest rates, which are reducing the amount of money the government has to pay to its borrowers. Still, the 2019 deficit is projected to be 25 percent larger than it was in 2018, and the budget office predicts it will continue to rise every year through 2023.

This is the really huge concern.  How long can interest rates stay low?  At some time, borrowers will start to need a higher return as inflation rises.  Rising interest rates can in turn increase inflation in a dangerous upwards (higher rates and higher inflation) spiral.

The MSN.com article “TREASURIES-Yields rise as Treasury considers ultra-long bonds” (4) shows the the government is already concerned enough to reconsider issuing 50 and 100 year bonds.

The article says: Treasury reopens queries into 50-, 100-year bonds .  U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday after the Treasury Department late on Friday said it was gauging market interest in ultra-long-dated debt, and as risk sentiment improved. The Treasury said it wants to “refresh its understanding of market appetite” for 50-year or 100-year year bonds.

The government is looking for ways to borrow now and not have to repay for 50 or 100 years.  This pushes the nation’s fiscal problems onto our great grandkids, even great great grandkids.   Let’s party up now and let the children of our children;s children pay the bill.

The government may pull some tricks to create a market for these ultra long bonds, but that’s another story for another time.  The point here is how serious the debt problem has become.

Where’s the opportunity?

If interest rates remain low and the US dollar weakens, the most likely beneficiary will be stock markets in other countries.  After Brexit is concluded… after the Hong Kong affair settles down, stocks markets abroad are likely to gain increased demand.  See how to spot good value non US dollar stock markets, below.

Gary

Make a Difference & Earn

Live anywhere.  Earn everywhere. Make a difference.  Tell Your Story.

Here is a Boomer special  offer.  Get my Writing and Self Publishing course for any amount you feel you can pay.

Learn how to earn high income in your own back yard.   Choose where you want that back yard to be.

You can create a lifestyle that you previously could only dream regardless of your age.

Gain 3 powerful benefits when you choose to become a writer:

Benefit #1: Freedom.   You set your own hours.  You work when you want to, not  when you are told.   Working at home eliminates a commute unless you count the 8 seconds it takes to walk from the bedroom to your office.   You can even work in your pajamas.  One writer who used our course says that this is one of his favorite benefits.

You don’t have to ask permission to take time off to attend your children’s sporting events, concerts, plays or any other event.  You have greater control over your earnings and your destiny.  If you want to earn more, give yourself a raise by increasing your revenue.  When you work hard, you are working hard for your benefit and wealth not someone else’s.  Being able to fit your business to circumstances can sometimes be the most important benefit of all.  A writer who had just started her self publishing business when their daughter was diagnosed with bone cancer.   During her daughter’s hospitalization she was able to be there 24/7… yet continue to write.  She told me… “This is one of the BEST reasons for writing, the freedom to work from the hospital room on your laptop and be there when your child needs you the most”.

Benefit #2:  You become part of the solution, not part of the problem.  There is so much bad news now all about events we are powerless to change or stop. You have a story to tell and in so doing can help others.

Benefit #3: You gain respect.  Writers are the people who bring the information to the rest of the world in an information era.  They are the ones who affect change and because of this, have a tremendous amount of power.

You can earn and enjoy these benefits writing about almost any subject you choose.

Here are  few stories of how writers have used what they learned to take small steps that led to greater control, increased success and incredible fulfillment in their lives.

Barry Weinhold sent this note: We were successful authors before attending the Writer’s Camp, with our first book published in 1989 selling over 200,000 print copies. With the tips from your course last fall, we have published six new ebooks in Kindle format that are now available  at Amazon.com.

Thanks for helping us get the word out about Barry’s 2-part Breaking Family Patterns series. Janae has also released her 3-part Con Job series.

weinhold book

We’ve co-authored “How To Break Free of the Drama Triangle and Victim Consciousness.”

weinhold book

Our monthly royalty checks are now coming in and we are very pleased with the response to our new books (656 books sold and 1295 free downloads in seven months). We have six more new ebooks in the pipeline for publication.  Our goal is to publish twelve new ebooks by our one-year course anniversary. We couldn’t have published this quickly without the great support we received from your Writer’s Camp. We highly recommend it to anybody seeking the fast track to becoming independent self-publisher.

Self Publishers can also write in more than one niches.

Nickolette Goff writes non fiction in two niches.  After attending a Writer’s Camp Nicki used what she had learned to help promote her first book… a Quinoa recipe cookbook with 13 recipes.  She had 10,000 downloads of the book in five days and obtained dozens of good reviews!

You can get 13 more great quinoa recipes in Nicki Goff’s book at the links below.

quinoa-book

You can order Nicki’s first book at Amazon.com.

She wrote:  Hi, Gary,  Book sales are actually going well, and I’m having a lot of fun with this. I’m so grateful to you and Merri  for pushing me to get some action going!

The free promos really get things going, and seem to reignite sales.

Two more in the works – both on gardening topics.  Best wishes for 2013 to you and Merri.   Love, Nicki

What a joy seeing how helping and connecting people helps self publishers create their own special success.  How beautiful to see friends turn their passions into profit!

Nicki learned at the camp that getting these downloads is step three in a seven step process. We (and others) have been helping Nicki and our delegates walk through these steps so they can earn income through writing and publishing again and again.

Nicki is now well on her way to wonderful self publishing success.   She just completed her fourth book in a totally different genre gardening. This book is “Under Cover Gardening”.

She used the three day free Kindle marketing program again. Read about Nicki’s new book here.

kindle book

Nicki wrote:  Gary: My book was downloaded exactly 6000 times during the 3 days, and is selling around 5 per day right now.  I’m very pleased with the results – three 5* reviews so far.  Nicki

Chances are that most books you write will not be a best seller.  However Nicki’s books show the process that you use to create a steady income as you build inventory.   She is publishing numerous books in each of the genres she loves.  This creates extra income and added inventory if one of your books becomes a big success.

Let’s look at Nicki’s example again to see these benefits. Imagine this. Nicki writes a half dozen books, three on organic gardening and three on quinoa.

Then imagine that Oprah is interested in quinoa, reads Nicki’s book and has her on the show.  Nicki’s quinoa book sales will go bananas.  So too will all her other quinoa books.   Add further to this example and say that the national psyche just happens to be focused on better nutrition when this all happens.  If so, Nicki’s organic gardening book sales will skyrocket as well.

To sum this up… you can use our course to learn the importance of writing for your niche, even though it may be unusual.

You can also self publish at any age.  A number of our friends who have used our writers course to self publish are in their 70s and 80s.

Here is how we can serve you.

Merri and I have had a long career in writing and self publishing.

You can write in numerous ways on a hobby, sport, profession or any interest you have.  What do you love?  Rare cars?  You can earn writing in the genre you love.  Do you prefer fine art?   Or do you love beautiful jewelry, coins, gems, real estate, furs, model railways, dolls, scientific equipment, war memorabilia, old and rare books, or whatever?

Do you prefer social subjects rather than objects?  Are you concerned with the environmental problems, with crimes, war, poverty?  Would you like to help wipe them out?  Each of these offers opportunity in publishing.

Are you a golfer?  Do you love to travel?  Why not make the kinds of money I’ve just mentioned publishing reports about golf courses all over the world?

Would you like to help the world be a more spiritual place, help people get along better together?

You can do something good for the world, increase your income in the process and live wherever you please!

Writing can also help you travel, even have an international lifestyle so you can live anywhere and still earn everywhere.  This is especially valuable if you love to travel.  For example, one shrewd writer realized that Panama was a great place to live and published information on Panama.

Other writers reaped rich rewards selling information on their own country.  Merri and I, for example, lived in Europe for years, then fell in love with Ecuador for 15 years.  We earned by writinig about our experiences there.

Now in our 70s, we live in Smalltown USA.  We love the peace and quiet, are closer to my mom, our children and grandchildren.  We still write (and publish) about what we love and are doing!   In each phase of our lives, the idea of tight focus has allowed us to move and live where we desired.

Imagine what writing means if you love to travel.  Part of every trip you take can be tax deductible!  You can honestly write off every trip that is related to your publishing business.  Every journey can become a research oriented adventure and a tax deductible event

Many benefits come in the form of reduced tax.  As a writer, you’ll have one of the most respected and tax protected businesses in the country.  Other benefits come in the form of legal protection.  Publishers are protected by the U.S. constitution.  You do not need a license to publish.  There is no government watchdog nor do you have bureaucratic red tape involved in publishing.  The biggest benefits are the freedom, the independence to work wherever you choose in any field you desire.

May I introduce you to our course, “SELF-FULFILLED – How to Be a Publisher to Sell”.

Merri and I created an entire system to help our readers have their own writing business.  This system is unique because my wife, Merri, and I are unique.  We started our self publishing business together.  Since we’re almost recluses, we decided to do the whole business by ourselves.  We began working at home.  Today, though we have tens of thousands of readers and have made millions, we still work at home and do not employ a single person.  When we switched to online publishing we added one business partner, our webmaster, who created and runs our website.  You’ll can learn how to do this in the course I am about to introduce.

The course teaches all you need to know on how to start and run your own writing and self publishing business by yourself.   The first lessons in the course answers your questions and get you started!

This course can put you well on your way to publishing to sell and give you the freedom to live wherever you choose!  It covers numerous income producing secrets:

Secret #1:  How to gain 1,000% returns.  See why some of the wealthiest families in the world today come from publishing.  Learn how margins can be so incredible that few would believe them.  This online course contains many case studies.  Case Study #3 for example shows one publisher who sold an idea delivered on one photocopied page.  His cost was only three cents, his selling price $12.50!

Secret #2:  How to create and market your product or find products to sell.  Learn 11 steps in creating the perfect product.  Understand how to review ideas, test focus, aim at markets.  See why you don’t have to write anything if you don’t want to!  Learn where and how to get your data and get others to write for you almost FREE.

For example, the course shows how one friend, before the Internet, never wanted to write and decided instead to publish on cassette tape.  He later switched to webinars.  He started part time and built a career that brought in millions and brought him to know some of the most interesting people.  Now of course publishers who do not want to write can use the internet.

Learn how marketing is the key to successful publishing and how to turn pennies into dollars with good marketing focus.  Gain samples of winning marketing pieces.  Learn 21 frequently committed marketing blunders and what to do about each.

You’ll learn how to turn advertising dollars into a fortune.  How to create your own ads.  When to use classifieds, space ads, direct mail or word of mouth.  See how to build a PR list and get thousands of dollars in free publicity.  I share my most secret results on recent mailings so you will know why sometimes you sell more units of a publication at $49 instead of $29.  I show how one couple used ads about retirement to supplement their retirement income and get free trips all over the world.

Secret #3: When to print, how to print and when to go online only.  How to print and fulfill.  Learn how to cut your printing bill in half by asking for quotes differently.  Learn tricks of the trade, how to get the best quality at the lowest price, why to avoid the biggest printer in town and why to avoid the franchise printers.

Secret #4: How to compute and use the Internet.  With an inexpensive computer, you can easily run a business from home and still have tons of time left over-even if you are computer illiterate.  Merri and I have proven this!  The secrets in the course include a step-by-step approach on what to do.   Our partner, the internet expert includes what you need to know for online publishing.

The course contains information on how to use computers and the Internet for your publishing business.  For example you will learn how I have eliminated hundreds of thousands of dollars of printing and postage by switching all of my business onto the net.

We unlock all the secrets of publishing so you can have increased lasting income and reduced taxation.  This course is perfect for those with great computer skills and can help you learn how to focus these skills into a profitable publishing business.

See how when we reached retirement age, we slowed down our self publishing business but still earned $2,404725.98, tax free, over the next ten years.

However, the course also helps computer illiterates like myself and shows how to get your computer work done with no upfront cost.

I have created this course in an easy to understand style.  Everything is explained what to do in vivid detail.  We share all, how we have done it ourselves.  The course is full of publishing ideas and case studies.  You’ll learn about a pilot who published a book on the best airport cafes.  All his flying became tax deductible!

You’ll see how one couple who loved an island wrote a guide on the place and made enough to buy a home on the beach there.

Another made millions with one simple legal idea.

I give names, resources and addresses of contacts in marketing, printing, plus attorneys, accountants, Internet whiz kids who can give help.

This course is not theoretical.  It describes on a step-by-step basis, how Merri and I built a million dollar international business in just 7 years and how you can do the same.

The course is designed so you can get your own writing, self publishing business going, full or part time right away.  I’ll explain how and why by sharing one other amazing experience that makes this special offer available for you now so you can have the course for pennies on the dollar.

I have previously exposed this idea only to my readers and never to the general public.  We conducted a course charging $2,000.  Here are raves from delegates who have used our course.

For example, one delegate, a publisher from California said:  “Your publishing course is outstanding! Just two hours of study on Sunday alone were worth more than the price.”

An engineer from Ohio wrote, “Basically, I learned how to be a publisher, especially the selling and marketing implications. The course is absolutely worth the cost!”

A retired railway worker from Michigan said, “Your course opened my eyes to the merits, profits, and prestige of becoming a publisher, particularly the idea of publishing in Canada for distribution in the U.S. (for total tax protection).” An employed couple from New York wrote, “We found the course interesting and informative. We were inspired to start work on a booklet. When we came down, we had no idea on what to publish.” And an attorney from Germany stated, “What I like most is that it is a nuts and bolts course-not pie in the sky.” While a business woman from Atlanta exclaimed, “It was great going through your steps, being 100% honest without fear of giving trade secrets since you have paid the price (to gain this knowledge).”

Merri and I have been overwhelmed by how much the course helped so we conducted another course and recorded it.  We then reproduced it in written form so it can be delivered entirely online at a huge reduction.  Though many readers have paid up to $2,000 for this course, you can start for only $299.

Here are some of the lessons you will learn in the online course:

Lesson #1:  A Day in the Life of a Publisher.  See how you can start with only a very small amount of money, work as little as four hours a day (if you are operating full time) even less if you start part time. Learn how two of my publishing friends, one an M.D.-the other a pilot ran their own money letters.  This gave them incredible tax protection, took them on many free, exotic trips, widened their perspective and field of friendships, helped them keep the money they were making in their fields and gave them a backup business that they loved for retirement.

Lesson #2:  How to Create Your Product.  Learn 11 steps in creating the perfect product.  Understand how to review ideas, test focus, aim at markets. See why you don’t have to write anything if you don’t want to!  Learn where and how to get your data and get others to write for you almost FREE.

Lesson #3:  How to Choose Your Format.  Some ideas are timeless and can be sold in a book for years on end.  Others are better in a magazine, newsletter or other periodic publication. Some products can just be lists, simple one page photocopied ideas or names and addresses. Understand when to print, record (on audio or video) and when to transfer through the Internet. Learn how to choose the format that suits you, full or part time.

Lesson #4:  How to Publish to Sell.  Learn how marketing is the key to successful publishing and how to turn pennies into dollars with good marketing focus.  Gain samples of winning marketing pieces.  Learn 21 frequently committed marketing mistakes and what to do about each. Know where and when to advertise (such as never near Easter-Christmas is OK).

You’ll learn how to turn a few advertising dollars into a fortune.  How to write or have ads written.  When to use classifieds, space ads, direct mail or word of mouth.  See how to build a PR list and get thousands of Dollars in free publicity.  Learn the tricks of the Internet to easily focus and capture a market there.

Lesson #5:  If You Print-How to Print?  Did you know that you can reduce your printing bill by half just asking for a job in the right way?  Learn all the tricks of the trade, how to get the best quality at the lowest price, why to avoid the biggest printer in town and why to avoid the franchise printers.  Learn how to choose the right graphics, correct paper, envelope, style, letter fonts.  When on demand printing is best.  Every Secret is included.

Lesson #6:  How to Fulfill.  This session is a practical guide on how to administer your business.  How to set up a computerized fulfilment system, get local families to do all your work for you and run your business (if you wish) from your home.  Learn how and why to use low and variable overheads, yet give one day turn-around delivery.  Learn when to choose delivery services, to fulfill yourself or build your own system…or when to simply fulfill via the Internet.

Lesson #7:  How to Finance.  Learn all you’ll need about the financial end, of the business, how to control physical or online inventory, keep overheads down, check ad results, get 30 day free credit and stay on top of your business.  Learn 11 hazards to avoid and tricks to stay profitable without a daily accountant.  The course and manual contain all these secrets and more.  The computer/internet workshop personalizes the knowledge so you can get started.

Who is This Course For?

This course is for those who would like to write to make a difference, for fun and profit but also helps business people, brokers and professionals, insurance agents and marketers who want to enhance their existing business or build a second source of income.

This course is for individuals and couples.  You can order the course but your entire immediate family has permission to use it.  We include those who want their own business or who want to have a business together or a family business.  Business people or professionals who want to add an extra profit center to their business or who want to change their business entirely will benefit.  Those who want more control over their career should take this course.  Plus those who love travel and want to turn their trips into profitable tax deductions!

Only those who really want to publish for profit or to expand their business should sign up for this course.  We have created a proposition where you cannot lose, but the course is not for idle curiosity.  We are giving away every business secret we possess and expect those who use it to reap fortunes in extra income, tax savings or expanded business. We expect this knowledge will change your life for the better.  You’ll gain extra income, more fun, adventure, friends, freedom, independence and prestige too.

You receive a complete manual provided by me, Merri and our webmaster, David Cross (who teaches the internet aspects of publishing).

Though many readers have paid up to $2,000 for the in person course, and tens of thousands paid $299 for the online course…  you can pay whatever you desire.

You could not duplicate the computer and Internet knowledge for $2,000.  It covers what you need to get on the Net, how to use the Web to publish, how to define your Internet market, how to develop your site, target your market and start getting visits, the top ten Internet tips to use, the top ten traps to avoid, and many other lessons our Webmaster has used in his 20+ years on the net.  In many cases your tax savings will be five to ten times the cost of the system alone, plus you will learn how to gain thousands of FREEBEES and earn hundreds of thousands a year.

Our publishing business has brought us more wealth, satisfaction, fun and friendship than I imagined possible.  It has brought so much to my life, I would like to help everyone be in publishing and I hope you are one with whom I will have the pleasure sharing this exciting and profitable way of life!

Whether you are retired, an investor, chiropractor, doctor, dentist, professional or already own your own business, this offers another way to make money, to turn your passion into profit. We guarantee to share all we know to help you start and run your own publishing business.

Don’t miss this opportunity.  Sign up with this special Boomer offer.   If you are a Boomer, you can decide how much to pay for our special Self Publishing course.

Choose below any amount and we’ll send a specially adapted course “Self Fulfilled – How Boomers Can Write and Self Publish”.

Here is what to do.  If you’re not sure whether you really want to have a publishing business, consider the ways that such a way of living can improve your life.

Then look at this no risk guaranteed offer.

Our Guarantee

Our guarantee is that you can pay any amount.

Tens of thousands of readers have ordered our self publishing course for $299, but if you are a Boomer (born between 1946 and 1964) just decide how much you wish to pay for the course and  Order “Self Fulfilled – How Boomers Can Write and Self Publish Sell. 

Buy The Self Publishing Course (PDF)

Gary

 

(1) www.wsj.com: U.S. inflation picks up in July as core prices strengthen

(2) www.economist.com: Economic data commodities and markets

(3) www.nytimes.com: Deficit will reach 1 trillion next year budget office predicts

(4) www.msn.com: Treasuries yields rise as treasury considers ultra long bonds

Panama Currency and Safety Beyond


Here’s a risk (or opportunity) to living abroad.

If your main income is in US dollars (from a pension and or Social Security) for example, what happens if the value of the US dollar falls versus the local currency.

panama

Forex fluctuations can work in your favor.  When Merri and I lived in Ecuador the currency there, the sucre, collapsed.  This meant our US dollar income was worth more.

On the other hand when living in England the pound went from just over one dollar per pound to over two dollars per pound.

The purchasing power of my dollar income was cut in half!

This risk is unfolding in Hong Kong, for example, right now.

The Wall Street Journal article “Worried Hong Kong Residents Are Moving Money Out as Protests Escalate” explains.

The article says: The local currency has weakened rapidly since early July, a move analysts attribute partly to outflows.

Money is leaking out of Hong Kong as months of protests raise concerns about the city’s future.

The local currency has weakened rapidly since early July, a move analysts attribute partly to outflows. Some businesses say they are seeing money move abroad, and several individuals who spoke to The Wall Street Journal said they have either swapped money into other currencies or are considering doing so.

One way to eliminate the worry of forex loss when living abroad is to choose a country that use the US dollar as its currency… such as Panama.

Our friend Jackie Lange at Panama Relocation explains a safety concept that goes even beyond protecting purchasing power in an article “What’s Your Plan B: Safety Insurance (2)”.

The article says: I have not watched the news in several years. Instead, I get my news from people from all over the world who come on a Panama Relocation Tour every month. Friends and family forward news articles to me too. What I’ve learned about what’s really going on around the world is a bit scary and it makes me ever so grateful that I live in Panama where there’s peace and everyone just gets along.

Sadly, other countries are not so lucky. This is what tour clients are reporting:

In South Africa and Zimbabwe, people are afraid to go to a grocery store or walk down the street unless they have a gun or a body guard to protect themselves. It’s dangerous to let their children go to school. It’s even dangerous to stop at a red light. South African farmers are murdered every day.

In Hong Kong, the protests are getting worse every day. I’ve been told by tour clients that a major revolution is coming soon there. All flights in to and out of Hong Kong have been cancelled.

In Nicaragua, the revolution has been going on for a few years and the death count is rising. You don’t dare go out after dark.

In Venezuela, there is not much food on grocery store shelves and it’s very hard to find any medicine. It’s getting worse every day. Now, it’s hard to even get permission to leave the country.

The United States has become a country divided by ideologies. Many I’ve talked to fear that it will get worse as tempers heat up with the upcoming elections. No matter who wins the 2020 election some will be angry which could lead to violence.

In most of Europe, tour clients report that the immigration problem has made locals feel unsafe living in their own country. Even expats who have lived in Europe for many years don’t feel safe anymore so they are checking out Panama as a Plan B.

Stress!

Yet, despite the unrest in much of the world, some are not in a position to just sell everything and move to another country. Perhaps they can’t afford to quit their job or sell their business. It may be impossible to sell their house and that’s where a lot of their money is tied up. Or maybe they don’t want to leave family and friends. I’m sure everyone is hoping things will get better.. some day soon.

Whatever the reasons for wanting to go but not being able to go, it could cause a very stressful situation. High blood pressure and anti-anxiety medications sales are at an all-time high worldwide because of the stress so many people are under.

So, what’s the solution?

You have health insurance just in case you have a major health problem and so a major medical bill does not bankrupt you.

You have house insurance just in case there is a fire or hurricane and your house is destroyed or damaged.

You have car insurance just in case you get into a wreck and your car is totaled.

What about safety insurance?

Panama Residency Visa after Panama Relocation TourMaybe it’s time to get safety insurance in the form of a residency Visa in Panama so you know you have a safe place where you can move to “just in case” things get so bad where you are living now that you don’t feel safe living there anymore. Panama offers many different residency Visa options.

Even if you don’t move to Panama any time soon, just knowing you have a residency Visa which allows you to live in Panama indefinitely will give you peace of mind. When you get a residency Visa in Panama, you are not even required to live in Panama. Once you get a Visa, you just need to come back every two years for a few days to maintain your residency Visa.

Jackie Lange hosted a LIVE Q & A Conference Call last Saturday. 

I was a guest speaker.  Listen in to what I had to say about international living, Ecuador and Panama, as well as Super Thinking.

You can hear hear the call at this link.   Click here to listen to the call.

Another way to learn more about Panama is with Jackie Lange’s free eight part series on living in Panama.

panama

Get Jackie Lange’s FREE report “How to Retire in Panama” here.

Gary

Spanish Words You Can Use

Money –  dinero

Bank – banco

Deposit – depositar

Wealth – riqueza

Fortune – fortuna

Dollar – dólar

learnspanish

Learn Spanish in Three Days ONLINE

Instant $110 discount on the course!

The “Learn Spanish in Three Day Course” is now available online.

Read below to see why we are offering our Super Spanish course online for the first time.

Speaking Spanish is a huge benefit on its own.  You can become one of the rare North Americans who can get along in Spanish speaking countries.  You can be one of the special people who can communicate with 10 million non-English speakers in the USA.  Spanish is the second most used language in the USA.  There are more Spanish speakers than speakers of Chinese, French, German, Italian, Hawaiian, and the Native American languages combined.  According to the Census Bureau, Spanish is the primary language of nearly 50 million people in the US.  This is the largest Spanish-speaking community outside of Mexico. Only half of these speakers also speak English “very well,” and 19% do not speak Spanish at all.

You can tap into all this potential when you speak Spanish.  Yet there are more benefits.

An article in England’s leading newspaper, the Telegraph, entitled “Why learn a foreign language? Benefits of bilingualism” (1) sum up the biggest benefit of learning a second language and increased intelligence.  The article says: “Learning a foreign language is more than just a boost to your CV or handy for traveling.  It will make you smarter, more decisive and even better at English.  Physiological studies have found that speaking two or more languages is a great asset to the cognitive process.  The brains of bilingual people operate differently than single language speakers, and these differences offer several mental benefits.”

The article then explains studies that show seven cognitive advantages gained from learning a foreign language.

#1:  You become smarter
#2:  You build multitasking skills
#3:  You stave off Alzheimer’s and dementia
#4:  Your memory improves
#5:  You become more perceptive
#6:  Your decision-making skills improve
#7:  You improve your English

Does it sound impossible to learn Spanish in three days?  Yes, it is impossible when you try to learn Spanish in the old, traditional way.

Though you may choose to take more time using this course to learn Spanish, thousands of our readers have learned at our Spanish courses.

There is a scientific method of learning… proven and described in numerous best selling books that create educational jumps by making education natural, easy and fun.   This course works because it is education without stress!

This method was created and refined by the Bulgarian educational master, Georgi Lozanov, who transformed the entire Soviet educational system to such a degree that this third world country beat the USA into space.

Merri was lucky to be one of a handful of students outside of Bulgaria who were allowed to be taught this system in the early 70s.  She practiced this unique and remarkable form of education for  four decades. It was a delight!

Merri and I began integrating these techniques with other shamanic and educational tactics we had gained in our global travels and then applied them to teach Spanish in three days.

The course has been proven again and again by the thousands who have used this system.  You can read a few of the many raves we have received from delegates who have learned from the Super Thinking Spanish course we created.

Here are a few quotes from delegates of the course.

One delegate from St. Louis wrote:  Hi Gary,  Just ended forty-five years in dentistry last week, and I’m on to a new career.  What is my new career?  Still formulating, but the eye -opening,mind expanding Super-Spanish course last weekend in St. Louis surely shows me the opportunity exists to expand my horizons.

Besides having a lot of nice people to learn our new language; the methods Merri and you developed proved to be just what you said they would be.  We all and I in particular relaxed our way to new learning.  I feel so very comfortable with the basis of my new language skills that I know I will be spitting out great Spanish sentences by the time I reach Ecuador in October.  Last year I spent six weeks in Ecuador and now I plan on conversing with the people.

Today’s excerpt of your newsletter really hit home. You do what you say you will. There are no surprises or hidden sales tricks. The only tricks are beneficial to our learning.  Thank you for a wonderful experience that I was quite unable to grasp how you would pull it off.  You did, however, and I look forward to other courses that you offer, and I have absolutely no doubt they also will work beneficially.  Best regards, Denis Molloy.

Another wrote about the Super Spanish course:   Buenos Dias, here is a testimonial for Super Thinking-Super Spanish.  Please feel free to use all or part in promotions for the course.  In addition, you may give my email address to any prospect “on the fence” about enrolling.  Yesterday, in Cotacachi, Ecuador, I finished Super Spanish.  I had high expectations for the course and they were exceeded.

After three days, I can speak Spanish in complete sentences. In simple conversations, such as buying groceries or ordering a meal, I can make myself understood. I think that’s incredible!

Although I am far from the competence level of a native speaker, I feel I’ve taken a giant step forward in learning Spanish so that I can experience the people and culture of Ecuador.  The foregoing benefits would have more than justified the time and money I invested in Super Spanish.  And learning some Spanish was not the most important benefit I got from the course.

Prior to leaving the USA, I had felt for some time that the pace of life there was unhealthy for me (and for most people) and I did nothing about it.

I’ve thought about the pace issue during the course.  One of the key elements Merri Scott designed into Super Spanish is placing the student in the optimal state for learning.  In class, the past three days, I’ve been re-introduced to guided journeys and introduced to the calming effects of Baroque music (www.sundaybaroque.org).  What a blessing! I’m inclined to make one or both a daily part of my life.   Rob Christi.  Cotacachi, Ecuador

Another attendee from a course wrote:   “I took this incredible class a few weeks ago, and I would like to tell anyone that is interested, that it is an amazing three days of learning with lots of laughs included. You leave everyday wanting to learn more and are so excited to do so.

“Other Spanish classes and tutoring made us feel like it would take forever to get to the point where we could put it into practice, but this method gave us a more fluent use for everyday life almost immediately AND the confidence to use it.  It is a fantastic way to show people how much they know and give confidence to learn and use Spanish creating a momentum.

“They made learning Spanish easy and fun in a very relaxed, comfortable atmosphere.  I would definitely recommend this course.  Even if you know some Spanish, this helps make it easier because of the less stress that no verb conjugations gives you.  This gives you more confidence in yourself to try and speak it more.

 “The stress free atmosphere and tons of interaction and participation were very conducive to learning.  The relaxation techniques alone are worth the price.  The fact that I can now feel more comfortable conversing in Spanish with my new friends and neighbors is priceless.  Muchas, muchas gracias.”

“I loved the relaxed environment.  I picked up quite a lot of new vocabulary.  I found this course very informative about how the language works, how I can make sentences and understand others better!  Muchas Gracias!  I had a call from Telcel (the local phone company) after our second class and I was able to speak and understand them for the first time. Despacio (meaning slowly) … a great word!  Everyone should take this course before they pick up bad habits.”

“I liked how simply the course was organized and the positive attitude about learning.  Thank you so much for helping me to learn Spanish!”

“I liked the laid back yet professional approach.  I highly recommend this new, relaxing method of learning Spanish,  I feel a lot more confident in the delivery of my words and sentences. It was taught in an excellent and very professional way.

“It was a very enjoyable class.”

How The Course Works

The first tactic is to use Baroque music in the learning process.  At least three best selling books, “Superlearning”, the “Mozart Effect” and “Superlearning 2000” have revealed insights about how to learn and think more powerfully based on systems drawn from the Bulgarian educational master, Dr. Georgi Lozanov.  Merri Scott was among just a few who learned directly from Lozanov.

The second tactic uses 17 unique lessons to provide Spanish fluency in a short time.   Let me prove to you how this tactic works by teaching you hundreds of Spanish words in less than 30 seconds.

Here is the proof.

“Most words in English that end in ION are almost identical, just pronounced differently.  For example action is accion, education-educacion, manipulation- manipulacion, etc.”

There you have it.  How long did it take you to read the sentence?  You now know hundreds of Spanish words that you will never forget.

See examples of the words you already know below.

How long would have taken you to memorize all those words?  How soon would you have forgotten them?

This is just one of seventeen Spanish lessons in the course.

The next lesson teaches how to pronounce each of the nouns.

Then, the third lesson teaches almost as many verbs, almost as quickly.

The fourth lesson shows how to avoid conjugating verbs by sticking with the infinitive (far easier than it sounds).  This simple lesson leaves a person sounding like a Spanish professor without ever conjugating a verb.

Lesson five shows how to sound infinitely polite and yet get almost anything desired in Spanish.

Lesson six gives valuable connectors and the seventh lesson triples the Spanish capacity with three words for “yesterday,” “now” and “tomorrow”.

By the end of three days you feel comfortable speaking Spanish.

Plus the system is Impro-Dynamic.  This means your Spanish keeps getting better even though you do not seem to be studying… practicing… or speaking Spanish.

I was amazed by this as I traveled back and forth from the USA to Ecuador.  The longer I was away from Ecuador… the better my Spanish became.  My second language was automatically improving The self improving feature comes because you learn to create Spanish sentences rather than remember them.  The portion of the brain that creates is more powerful than the portion that recalls.  When your mind creates something… it owns it!  You do not have to remember .

During the course you learn 4005 Spanish words that you already know .  

You then learn how to create Spanish sentences from these words.

Throughout the course you learn how to pronounce the sentences you create.

When the course ends… the mind keeps working… and creating… so next time you begin to speak Spanish you’ll be surprised .  You improve even though you have not actively worked on your lingual skill.

Due to the difficulty of getting groups together to learn this valuable technique, we created an online program for subscribers to use the Super Spanish course at home.  Normally $149, this is available at the highly reduced price of $79. Simply use coupon code SPANISH110 at checkout.

I’ll be in touch personally via email with each person who signs up for this course to see how it works or what is required to make it better.  Once this test is complete, we plan to offer the program on a larger scale and at a much higher price.

The ONLINE course has our, full satisfaction or money back, guarantee.  Try Super Spanish for 60 days.  If not fully satisfied, simply let us know for a full refund.

Learn Spanish online $79 – using coupon code SPANISH110 at checkout to immediately save $110 off the regular price of $149

Here are more testimonials from previous Super Spanish Courses.

Maggie wrote: It didn’t really seem possible that we would be speaking and understanding Spanish in only 3 days but the course made it happen in a very supportive learning environment.  I would highly recommend this course for anyone wishing to learn “practical Spanish”.  The teaching methods, use of relaxation, the use of native Spanish speakers for pronunciation and the teachers themselves who were approachable and helpful and always positive made this a very valuable class.

This course improved my self confidence in my ability to learn and retain a language.  It was presented with genuine enthusiasm, great energy and the style of learning is very effective. Gracias!  It was a great experience.

Nadine wrote: “Just spent the last 3 days in the most wonderful learning environment learning Spanish.  What an amazing learning experience!!  First day out of class and I could not stop thinking in Spanish WOW!!  I am amazed by how much I learned, retained and how much more is showing up now that I am out of class.  And the best part is THERE WAS NO STUDYING!! Indeed this is Super Thinking!!!  I would highly recommend this to anyone that has ever had a desire to learn another language or learn anything in record time.

And a few days after that ….  As I went through my day, just hanging out with my son, I could see myself starting to think in Spanish.  At first I thought it was amusing but as it continued and increased I thought “My goodness this is really remarkable amazing” It was really an effortless unfolding.  I wasn’t at any point “trying” to think in Spanish, just words I knew would fly across the screen in my mind.  And then this afternoon, my son cuddled up on the couch to watch some cartoons on his ipad and was watching Peppa Pig in Spanish…hmm coincidence?  I think not, I’m radiating Spanish so much that my son is being influenced!  Thanks a million again.  This weekend the best learning experience of my life!!

If you have ever had a desire to learn Spanish this is the way to do it!  By the end of the first day I had more confidence and more practical ability than I had from any previous courses I had taken.  It was fun and relaxed and full of laughter.  You will leave this class excited to use what you have learned.  Rather than leaving overwhelmed with how much you have yet to learn and master, you are equipped with the knowledge and know how to go out and communicate as well as the excitement to do it!”

Gary noted:  “The whole approach is positive and conducive to learning at a level that benefits ALL participants.  It is not intimidating and does not set up a pass/fail atmosphere.  The presenters are terrific and the results unbelievable.  It was relaxed, informal, friendly and effective.”

Twila said:  “This class provided a very refreshing and relaxed way of learning.  The atmosphere felt very safe to say the words you were practicing.  I learned a lot in a way that will make it easy to apply.  Starting with conversation is way more fun.  How quickly you can learn!  It was a great group, great instructors and great stories.

The atmosphere in the classroom was so relaxed that learning Spanish felt like a breeze and not like a painful task.  The relaxation exercises are really conducive to language learning.  We learned A LOT in a short time and it was fun and the environment was non-threatening.”

Brigitte sent this:  “Buenos Dias, Suzanne. su clase de espanol es excelente! Muchas Gracias!  
I have already done what you suggested and went into the program listening to the music and going over the lessons.  I know: Repetition……reinforcement…..thinking in the new language….it’s all part of it.  I loved your course and will certainly recommend it to friends.  Who knows….I might feel the urge and have the opportunity to repeat it at your beautiful place in Puerto Aventuras…..Quien sabe? Hasta otro dia y saludos a su familia.”

Marie wrote:  “I would highly recommend this course.  The amount covered in 3 days is amazing!  All with no stress.  The correlation lessons and pronunciation practice has greatly reduced my anxiety to go out and use my Spanish.  I really enjoyed the whole process and thank you for the take away tools.”

Learn Spanish online $79 – using coupon code SPANISH110 at checkout to immediately save $110 off the regular price of $149

Gary

Here is the English translation of a few of the many Spanish words you now know and will never forget.  How long would it have taken you to memorize them?  How soon would you forget?

“Most words in English that end in ION are almost identical, just pronounced differently.  For example, action is accion, education-educacion, manipulation- manipulacion, etc.”

Some more of these words:  Combination, Attrition, Education, Vacation, Petition, Lotion, Motion, Construction, Abduction, Pronunciation, Concentration and a ton of others!

Learn Spanish online $79 – using coupon code SPANISH110 at checkout to immediately save $110 off the regular price of $149

(1) www.telegraph.co.uk Benefits-of-bilingualism.html

(1) www.wsj.com/articles/worried-hong-kong-residents-are-moving-money-out-as-protests-escalate-11566120603

(2)  panamarelocationtours.com/plan-b-safety-insurance

 

Why the US Dollar Will Fall.


Will the US dollar survive the current global and political turmoil?

Yesterday’s message Hidden Inflation showed why, as bad as US dollar interest rates have been, they are still the highest in the industrialized world.

This chart from the Economist shows that US 10 year government bonds yield only 1.7%.  That’s higher than all the other major Western currencies.

The yen, Euro, Danish and Swedish bonds have negative yields now.  If you invest in those bonds you get back less than you invested.

Britain, despite Brexit, pay only 0.6%.  Canada, 1.2%.

economist.com

Despite low interest rates all over the world, the news is filled with warnings of a global economic slowdown.

For example the Wall Street Journal printed this in its article “Warning Signs Point to a Global Slowdown” (2).

Warning signs pointing to a deepening global economic slowdown—and the risk of recession—are flashing more brightly.

Weakness in Germany, China, puts pressure on record U.S. expansion as recession risks rise; U.S. stocks tumble

Many of the biggest troubles are showing up overseas. But stock and bond markets are signaling that the threat of a downturn is spreading to the U.S., the world’s largest economy, now in its longest expansion on record.

Economic output in Germany, the world’s fourth-largest economy, contracted in the second quarter, according to a report Wednesday, while a report on factory output in China, the second-largest economy, came in lower than expected.

There is little room left for governments to lower interest rates to stimulate their economy.  Yet the US has been trying to stimulate and the Fed recently lowered the US dollar interest rate.

When the Fed lowers the dollar interest rate,  the US dollar will weaken.

Governments globally have been playing a dangerous short term game… lowering interest rates so they can afford to borrow more money.

The Economist chart above shows that China and the US have two of the highest federal deficits of any country.   Only Pakistan, Brazil, Egypt and Saudi Arabia has higher deficits as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product than China and the USA.

The US government is sprinting to become the worst wanton spender.

The Wall Street Journal article “U.S. Budget Gap Widens 27% in First 10 Months of Fiscal Year” (3) shows that the government is on a runaway spending spree.

The article says: The government collected $2.9 trillion in receipts, a 3% increase, while spending climbed 8% so far this fiscal year.

The U.S. budget gap widened further in July as federal spending outpaced revenue collection, bringing the deficit to $867 billion so far this fiscal year, a 27% increase from the same period a year earlier.

The Treasury Department said Monday federal receipts rose 3% from October through July, totaling $2.9 trillion, while outlays climbed 8%, to $3.7 trillion. A senior Treasury official said federal revenue collection has picked up significantly since April compared with a year earlier, when lower tax rates implemented under the 2017 tax overhaul weighed on receipts.

At the same time, rising enrollment in Medicare and higher interest rates have led to higher government costs on benefits and interest payments, pushing the deficit even higher despite robust economic growth that usually shrinks budget shortfalls.

The US government is in a tough spot.  When the economy slows, tax revenues will fall and government spending will rise.  This could throw US government financing into turmoil when investors are no longer willing to invest  in such a debt laden currency with a low interest rate.

A lower interest rate and weakened dollar are two of the government’s best option.

Governments generally try to stimulate economies in three ways… spending more, lowering interest rates and taxing less.  Now the US and China, the two largest economies in the world, have little room to use any of these three options.

America’s alternative is to weaken the US dollar in the hopes that lower prices for it goods and services will create demand and speed up America’s exports.

Weakening the dollar will increase the cost of living  in the US.

The US dollar is a distorted, overpriced currency.  The greenback’s strength is so high the US government has been considering that they will force it down.  The government says it won’t do it.

Denial by a government is usually a sign that they almost certainly will do what they say they will not.

Expect a weaker greenback.

Gary

One way to profit from a falling dollar is to invest in good value non dollar stock markets as described below.

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

motif

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

(1) www.economist.com/economic-and-financial-indicators/2019/08/08/economic-data-commodities-and-markets

(2) www.wsj.com/articles/warning-signs-point-to-a-global-slowdown-11565814494?mod=itp_wsj&mod=&mod=djemITP_h

(3) www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-budget-gap-widens-27-in-first-10-months-of-fiscal-year-11565633008?mod=itp_wsj&mod=&mod=djemITP_h

 

 

Hidden Inflation


Hidden inflation is robbing our savings and wealth.

Inflation is low. So say the statistics.

The truth is our purchasing power is being eroded anyway, despite what the statistics say.

We can understand the problem today by looking at the period of dramatic inflation and currency turmoil in the 1970s.

This inflation was similar to current rising prices, except now, the inflation is shown in depressed interest rates instead of higher prices.

macrotrends.com

The chart above from Macroecomics.net (1) shows the highest inflation in the past 50 years was 13.29% in 1979.

The chart below shows how interest rates rose to match the inflation.  This chart also from Macroeconomics.com (2) shows the 10 year Treasury rates.

When the highest inflation rate rose to 13.29% in 1979, the 10 year treasury rate rose to 15.71%.    There was still a real return yield above inflation of 2.42%

macroeconomics.net

 

A low interest rate creates the same effect as inflation for those who have invested and saved money.   Their savings buys less, unless it is invested with greater risk.

This is a worldwide problem!

Here’s the current inflation, less the 10 year treasury yield (TY), in the world’s major economies.

                 Inflation      TY          Yield

US               1.6%         1.7%        0.02%
China         2.7%         2.9%       0.02%
Japan         0.7%        0.2%    –  0. 05%
Britain       2.0%        0.6%    –  1.40%
Canada      2.0%        1.2%     –  0.80%
Euro           1.1%         0.6%    –  0.50%
Denmark   0.6%      -0.5%    –  1.10%
Sweden      1.8%       -0.3%   –   2.10%
Norway      1.9%         1.1%    –  0.80%
Australia    1.6%        1.0%    –  0.60%

Every country, except the US and China has a negative yield. The slightly higher positive Treasury Yield of the US dollar  has created a distorted, overpriced greenback.  The dollar’s strength is so high that the US government has been considering ways to force it down.

The government says it won’t do it.

Denial by a government is usually the first sign that they will do what they say they won’t.

See one way to profit from a falling dollar.

Gary

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll Really Cash In Next Time”

Periods of good investing performance are always followed by periods that are bad.

Think about this…

The US dollar has risen over 50% above its lows of 2011.   The greenback is at its highest level versus the Chinese yuan since 2008.  India’s rupee is at an all-time low against the buck.  Other Asian currencies, the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit have plunged to depths not seen since the financial crisis of 1997-98.  The euro, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar have crashed.  In other words, the US dollar is in a period of high performance.

What happens is the greenback is in a free fall.  Smart investors can cash in huge profits.

Yet there is a bigger economic problem that can ruin the purchasing power of your cash faster than you can imagine.

While the dollar was rising non US governments and businesses accumulated almost ten trillion dollars of debt denominated in US dollars.

The terror in this debt is that it acts as a destructive and very rapid financial amplifier.  Dollar debt is like a short position.  When the dollar rises, borrowers scramble to short-cover their position by selling their own currency.  This defeats the purpose of their hedging as it increases the strength of the dollar.  So they short even more.  Those short sales create an upward dollar spiral.  The buck rises higher and higher, based entirely on fear and speculation.

When that leverage energy is spent the currency stalls and plummets out of control… like now.

The last time we saw such a upwards spiral was from 1980 to 1985.  The dollar rose 50% in those five years.

Guess what?

Then it collapsed 50% in just two years.

The US dollar is in a similar position as at the beginning of Ronald Reagan’s first term in the 1970s.  This was a time of widening budget deficits, rising interest rates and a US dollar surge.  This created a problem then, as it does now, and creates huge opportunity for those in the know.

The rise of the dollar, the debt and the US stock market creates an especially dangerous conflict because Donald Trump wants to balance America’s trade.  A stronger dollar makes this impossible because it pushes up the cost of US material, US labor and US exports.

The overpriced dollar, the poor value of the US stock market (compared to other markets) create a dollar crisis and a special opportunity for you and me as investors.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.  I had wished I could have invested more.

Now those circumstances are here again.

And I have…

invested more… a lot more… betting again the dollar.

The swollen stock market prices, huge dollar denominated debt and weakening dollar are three patterns that can create a fast 50% profit.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.

There is a way to accumulate good value equities denominated in the following currencies of special strength, including the Euro, Canadian dollar, Singapore dollar, British pound, New Taiwan dollar and Chinese yuan.

The report reveals 21 special non dollar equities that have the greatest opportunity for safety and appreciation.

I kept the report short and simple, but include links to 153 pages of global stock market and asset allocation analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to inexpensively accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hit the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep the report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

Or get this report free.  Subscribe to the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) described below.

 

Protect Your Wealth From a US Dollar Loss

Here are three steps to multi currency profits.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve and increase our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make you smarter than the smartest man in the world.

sir issac newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market.  His comment was “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence of value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why the data we use in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) is created by  mathematicians not economists.

I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline so you can use math, not emotion to protect and increase your wealth.

There are time tested mathematical systems that can help you know when to take profits that maximizes gains and minimizes loss.

These systems help you seek value but also create disciplined exit strategies because one of the toughest decisions most of us have is to know when to sell a rising or falling share.

Human nature makes it harder to let winners run, than to cut loses.

To easily spot good value and stick to it, we use Keppler Asset Management  as our first source of data.

Keppler’s analysis begins with a continual researches of corporate information on thousands of shares in 46 major stock markets. Keppler compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Keppler explains why a Top Value Country Selection Strategy for equities is important and says in his analysis: Among the generally accepted reasons for taking a global perspective in investments is the historical fact that no nation can maintain economic and political pre-eminence ad infinitum.

Studies have shown that, regardless of the investor’s national market and currency, diversified global equity portfolios, over longer periods, offer higher returns at lower risk than investments in national markets.

Keppler Asset Management Inc. (KAM) was  founded by Michael Keppler in 1992.  KAM is an SEC–registered investment advisory firm dedicated to finding and exploiting investment opportunities in the global equity markets. Based in New York, they advise institutional investors worldwide and help manage published mutual funds with total assets exceeding two billion US dollars. Plus they advise many private pension funds by specializing in active quantitative portfolio strategies that aim to deliver superior long-term performance and seek to limit risk through a firm commitment to value.

Starting in 2009, KAM was named Best Fund Company in the Fund category, five years in a row, by Capital, a leading German business magazine.

That’s my simplicity secret for keeping track of where to invest.  Using Keppler’s data has served me well for 25 years.  This is an effective easy system that does not requires a lot of time and avoids being drowned in a sea of conflicting opinions about what investment to make next.

More good news is that Keppler does not manage individual accounts and though SEC registered and headquartered in New York, does not mange funds for US customers.  That means that not many US investors are tapped into the information we use.

That’s why I created our Purposeful Investing Course, one of the few, if not the only sources of Keppler analysis for individual investors.

Here is how to tap into this valuable information on a no risk basis right now.

The Purposeful Investing Course combines Keppler analysis with research on low cost, good value country ETFs.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 16 country ETFs, along with precious metals.   This is also why this position has hardly changed in the past five years. During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 16 shares and have traded only six times.

This portfolio above is based on stock price-to-value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of 16 country ETFs. Each ETF  covers  one of the stock markets that are undervalued.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally hold now.

70% of the equities is diversified into iShares ETFs that represent Keppler’s nine good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Austria, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the equities are invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Malaysia, Mexico and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The big bonus.  You get paid more now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not right now.

This chart from the New York Times article “The Mystery of High Stock Prices” (1) shows that equities pay a higher yield than bonds.

wsj.com

Most Important, Get Paid the Most Now!

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact the chart below shows that US shares pay one of the lousiest yields of the 46 stock markets we monitor around the world.

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.91%.  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.6% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Nine solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay 71% higher yield, 3.27% compared to the US yield of 1.91%.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years. 

This strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term dividend income right now.

In a moment, I’ll show how to push that yield to 4.07% per annum without adding additional risk.

keppler62020

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only three times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top (or neutral in the case of Canada and Australia) value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Pi strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

I am updating my plan to increase my average yield to as much as 4.07%.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The average yield of these nine markets combined was 3.27% as of June 2020.  By replacing the three lowest yielding markets, Austria (.64%), Germany (1.83%)  and Japan (2.51%)  with two better yielding neutral markets Australia (4.57%) and Canada (3.54%) the average annual yield on the entire portfolio rises to 4.07%.

4.07% is 154% higher than the 1.6% you can currently earn on AA rated corporate bonds!

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) www.nytimes.com: mystery of high stock market prices

(1) www.macrotrends.net/2497/historical-inflation-rate-by-year

(2) www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart

 

A “Get Paid to Borrow” Mortgage


What happens when interest rates dip below zero?

Recent messages at this site looked at how Danish government bonds now pay a negative interest rate.

enr asset management

The low government bond rate has filtered through into the Danish banking system.

Our Danish friend Thomas Fischer recently wrote: Hi Gary,

Mortgage rates on condos in Copenhagen dropped to a new low inJuly 1.  Look at the 5 years fixed interest rate.

Interest rate:                                                          minus 0.40%

Administration costs:                                          0.75%

Total borrowing costs for 5 years:      0.35%

That’s a nice deal.

Low dollar rates have kept US mortgages at low rates as well, but not that low!

Thomas also sent the valuable information below about how lowering US dollar interest can create overseas opportunity.

Time to diversify overseas.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has just published its 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook.

By the end of this year, federal debt held by the public is projected to equal 78 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—its highest level since shortly after World War II.  If current laws generally remained unchanged, growing budget deficits would boost federal debt drastically over the next 30 years, the Congressional Budget Office projects. Debt would reach 92 percent of GDP by the end of the next decade and 144 percent by 2049 .

Consequences of High and Rising Federal Debt If federal debt as a percentage of GDP continues to rise at the pace that CBO projects it would under current law, the economy would be affected in two significant ways:

• That debt path would dampen economic output over time, and

• Rising interest costs associated with that debt would increase interest payments to foreign debt holders and thus reduce the income of U.S. households by increasing amounts.

That debt path would also pose significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook, although those risks are not currently apparent in financial markets.

The last remark from CBO indicates that the financial markets have not yet reacted to the threat of increased debt and lower economic growth. We could be on the cusp of a huge investment opportunity for US investors as the focus shifts from US equities to European/German equity markets. If the USD also, as a consequence of the dire economic outlook, continues its current weakening US investors with non-USD investments could be in for a win-win situation.

The German DAX Index, along with most other markets around the world, has severely lagged New York since March 2009. In dollar terms, the iShares Germany ETF (NYSE-EWG), which closely resembles the blue-chip DAX Index, has gained just 5.43% per annum over the past ten years compared to 16.50% per annum for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE-SPY). That’s a huge difference. It’s almost the same story for other bourses overseas, especially as the dollar has remained strong since late 2011. The bottom line: the majority of international markets have performed poorly in dollar terms over the past three, five and ten years while Wall Street has skyrocketed. The last time foreign markets trounced the S&P 500 Index was back in the early 1990s until 1995 when the U.S. bull market took-off. Major and emerging markets earned big returns from 1988 to 1994 and earlier in the mid-1980s. That period of outperformance will return.

German equities have been beaten up for more than a year. The seemingly endless travails of Deutsche Bank AG (DAX-DBK) and the latest blow to chemicals group Bayer AG (DAX-BAYN) highlight the cracks in some of the country’s best-known corporate names. But Swiss bank UBS believes it may finally be time to give Germany a break. Since the start of 2018, German stocks have been comfortably the worst performing in Europe, lagging major markets in the rest of the region by about 9%, UBS notes. That means stocks from this supposed euro-zone economic powerhouse, which led the rest of the continent in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, have trailed even behind those of the Brexit-hobbled UK.

Fed Rate Cut in 2019 Points to Lower Dollar

After a blistering rally off the late 2011 lows, the U.S. dollar is poised to finally weaken ahead of an imminent interest rate cut currently in the process of being discounted by financial markets. With May payrolls up just 75,000, markets have begun to discount a possible July Fed rate cut. The dollar has also started to soften this week, down more than 1.5% and the biggest weekly decline in months. The last time EURUSD broke its 200-day moving average, it rose from 1.08 to 1.25 equaling a USD weakening of 15%.

I have worked with Thomas for nearly two decades, first at Jyske Bank and now at ENR Asset Management.  ENR are one of the few SEC registered investment advisors that can help investors manage their portfolios at Swiss and Austrian banks.

ENR Asset Management offers a range of non-USD managed investment strategies from only USD $100,000. If you would like to hear more about our products and services feel free to contact Thomas Fischer at thomas@enrasset.com.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

motif

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

Part 6 – Why Half of America Can’t Sleep at Night


Money is the biggest cause of stress in America today.

According to an American Psychological Association poll, despite the ongoing economic recovery, money worries continue to create too much stress.  Nearly three out of four adults reported feeling stressed about money at least some of the time. Financial worries served as a significant source of stress for 64 percent of adults in 2014, ranking higher than three other major sources of stress: work (60 percent), family responsibilities (47 percent), and health concerns (46 percent).

stress

Clear thinking is the root of all wealth. Image from dreamsline.com

The association found that Americans are too stressed for good health and the problem is compounded because stress  interferes with clear thinking.  Poor decisions, eroding memory and cognitive difficulties reduce the odds of making good financial and life decisions.

Why does stress damage?

According to the Sciencedaily.com article “How stress influences disease” (1), stress leads to inflammation and there is a clear link between stress, reduced decision making and clarity of thought.

Stress wreaks havoc on the mind and body. Until now, it has not been clear exactly how stress influences disease and health. Now researchers have found that chronic psychological stress is associated with the body losing its ability to regulate the inflammatory response. The research shows for the first time that the effects of psychological stress on the body’s ability to regulate inflammation can promote the development and progression of disease.

Inflammation, in turn is a pivotal player in such diverse brain conditions as Alzheimer’s disease, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson’s disease and even autism.

This problem grew worse in 2014 because of inflation.

When money became worth less at the grocery store there was an increase in American stress.

Americans noticed that they were paying more for almost everything.  They started to cut back even though the economy was rising.  The economic growth was helping top earners but not the middle class and poor.

They changed their spending habits, tried to do more local errands in one day so they could cut down on trips.  They tried to consolidate things as higher costs for food and gas hit their budgets.

Americans began to sacrificed things, like not doing an ice cream runs during the week with the kids.

At the grocery store, meat, dairy and fruit prices were all up substantially. People are even paying more for lattes at their local coffee shops.

This created more stress.

“Money is a very important component of establishing a secure life,” said Norman Anderson, CEO and executive vice president of the American Psychological Association. “When people are financially challenged, it makes sense that their stress level would go up.”

Inflation is raising its ugly head again so fight fire with fire. 

Watch for Inflation.  Monitor the US dollar index.  Spot good value investments that are worth more due to an overly strong US dollar.

Rare, long term economic cycles can help us see distortions and future trends such as the over bought US dollar.

The chart below from the September 29, 2018 New York Times article, “The Mini-Recession That Many Missed” (2) shows how the 2014 inflation caused the US dollar to rise in 2015.

nyt.com

The article explained: There was a sharp slowdown in business investment, caused by an interrelated weakening in emerging markets, a drop in the price of oil and other commodities, and a run-up in the value of the dollar.

The Federal Reserve, seeing the United States economy looking healthy, started ending its era of ultra-easy monetary policy.

As the Fed moved toward tighter money, its counterparts at the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan were going in the opposite direction. The prospect of higher interest rates in the United States and lower rates in the eurozone and Japan fueled a steep rise in the value of the dollar on global currency markets.

We can see the 2014 rise in the US dollar in this chart of a US dollar. Index Futures ETF.

yahoo.com

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX) shows the US dollar relative to this basket of foreign currencies:red to other currencies.

Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight
Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight

Since then, when the greenback gained strength in 2015, the index has been hovering around 100.

The 100 mark is significant due to its rarity.  A look at a long term chart of the index shows it has only breached this barrier four times since 1967.

wiki

This suggests that its a better than normal time to use US dollars to buy shares in non dollar markets.

When the dollar index weakens… as it will, investors will flow out of US markets into markets abroad.  This creates double profit for non dollar share investors.  The inflow of investments pushes share prices up.  Higher non dollar currency parities make shares worth more in US dollars.

Invest in good value non dollar markets.  This is easy, because long term studies suggest that all top value equity markets right now, are non dollar stock markets.

Keppler Asset Management’s last market valuation shows that the Top Value Developed Markets are selling at less than half (1.50 vs 3.29) the book value of the US market.

keppler asset management

This may be a long term investment.  The US dollar has remained buoyant far longer than most traders have expected.  We have no way to know when forces will shift and non US markets will rise faster than US markets nor when the six index currencies will rise against the US dollar.

What we do know is history powerfully suggests that distortions of this strength do eventually adjust and when they do, the correction normally takes place quickly.

Here are the Top Value Markets and their Price to Book, PE Ratios and Average Dividend Yield.

keppler

Money worries cause stress.  Stress causes inflammation. Inflation reduces our ability to think right and intelligently invest.  Beat back this biggest cause of stress with good value investing.

Gary

Borrow Low – Deposit High

Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less.   If someone offers you a deal like this, I would normally say “Run as fast as you can!”

Yet in 1986. This is exactly what I wrote in a report, The Silver Dip”  that told how to borrow British pounds to buy silver.  I must admit it. I was wrong. Readers who followed the report made nearly that amount ($46,299 to be exact) in only one year!

I have been updating this report since.  The last update showed how to get 2% loans that turned $39.95 into $28,185 profit.

Now is the time to borrow low and earn high again because… an amazing investing trend is taking place.

Most investors will miss it.   You do not have to lose out.

Let’s take a look why.

I have been helping readers use a little known, easy loan investing technique for over 30 years.   Almost any investor can get the loans.

The $39.95 is for a report that explains how to borrow $10,000… no loan application required.   You’ll  get the lowest interest rates in town according a Barron’s online review.

Right now the loan interest rates are between 1.41% to 2.66%.

Here is what happened the first time I issued this report over three decades ago.

The year was 1986.  The price of silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce down to $4.85 in May 1986.  

Everyone was afraid of investing in silver.

But I had been investing and writing and speaking about global investments since 1968.   When I issued the Silver Dip in 1985 I  had nearly 20 years of experience, so knew that when fear rules a market, the chance of profits are high.

As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply of silver had fallen to 449.7 million ounces.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at that time.  Secondary recovery of silver was constricted by low prices as well.

Then a “special silver pricing position” fell into place.

I showed readers how to borrow 10,000 British pounds at cheap interest rates, to invest in silver.   A British pound at that time was worth $1.86 so the loan was sufficient to buy 3,835 ounces of silver at $4.85 per ounce.

Silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  By 1987 the 3,835 ounces of silver was worth $42,185.

The profit did not stop there!

The loan was in British pounds.  By May 1987 the pound had dropped from $1.86 per pound to only $1.40 per pound.  The 10,000 pound loan that had been worth $18,600 in 1986 only required $14,000 to pay it off in 1987.

The falling pound had created an extra $4,600 profit.

Do the math: 

Silver worth $42,185

Loan payoff  $14,000

Profit             $28,185

Cash Required  Zero

All of this profit was made on the 10,000 pound loan.  No extra cash was required on the investor’s part.

The $28,185 was pure… extra profit.

Let me add that some investors had borrowed even more.  Some less.  The report showed a loan to risk formula that investors could follow.

That was in the 1980s.  Silver’s special pricing position” does not happen often (this is why most investors miss it).

Nearly 30 years passed before the “silver’s special pricing position” fell into place again.

Conditions for the silver dip returned 30 years later in 2015.  The availability of low cost loans and silver’s price were perfect.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, most missed this important profit generating event. 

My readers did not.

I had been watching the entire 30 years for “silver’s special pricing position” to return.

I had been watching currency shifts and interest rates distortions so I knew the best currency to borrow.

From 2011 to 2015 the price of silver had once again crashed from $48.35 to below $14 an ounce.

The “special silver pricing position” reappeared.

I dusted off the “Silver Dip” and updated it to the “Silver Dip 2015”.

I prepared a “Silver Dip 2015” report and shared it immediately.  

The report paid off again.

From July 2015 to July 2016, the price of the silver ETF  iShares Silver Trust (Symbol SLV) rose from $13.92 and ounce to $18.71.  You can see the rise in the finance.yahoo.com chart below.

yahoo

A 10,000 pound loan (the pound was $1.52 per pound) purchased 1091 shares of the silver ETF SLV.   Those Shares rose to be worth $20,421 by 2016, a 34.34% additional profit.

The profit did not stop there!

The loan again was in British pounds.  From 2015 the pound dropped from $1.52 dollars per pound to only $1.39 dollars.  The 10,000 pound loan that had worth $15,200 in 2015 only required $13,900 to pay it off in 2016.

yahoo pound chart

The falling pound had created an extra $1,300 profit.

Do the math: 

Silver worth $20,421

Loan payoff  $13,900

Profit             $6,521

Cash Required  Zero

All of this profit was made on the 10,000 pound loan.  No extra cash was required.

Again this was pure… extra profit.

Some investors borrowed less… others borrowed much more so their profits were even higher.

All the extra earnings were derived from a low cost, easy to obtain loan that almost any investor can have.

I would like to help you learn how to tap into this type of profit that most investors will miss… in my newest report “The Silver Dip 2019”.

First let me answer a really important question…  that if you have not asked, you should.

Isn’t there some risk?

Yes.  There is always risk when you invest.

The first golden rule of investing outlined in the Silver Dip 2019 report is…”there is always something we do not know”.

The numbers above are what have happened.   We never know for sure what will happen.

2015 was similar to 1986.  Investors were afraid of silver.  Courage was required and this is exactly why dip investments work so well.

When most investors are afraid of a precious metal, extra good value is created!

Plus there is a way to dramatically increase the odds that your investment will be safe and that you’ll reap the type of high rewards I have described above.

The formula for increasing safety and improving the odds for profit are included in the new report, “Silver Dip 2019”.

The benefit of 50 years experience.

With so many years of experience in watching markets, metals, bonds, interest rates and currencies, I have learned many special pricing situations to watch for.

These special opportunities do not appear every day.  That’s why they are special.

Unless you have seen them come and go, it’s hard to see them coming again.

That is why I was willing to wait for years for silver to be in a special pricing position.

Our courses and reports are about finding good value and they have been helping astute readers find value investments, again and again for 50 years.

The “Silver Dip 2019” report shows a new, even bigger opportunity.  I continuously watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.   Sometimes a rare quirk, such as we saw with the pound loans and the Silver Dip offer potential for profit, with very little risk of long term loss.

Investors who speculate on platinum at the correct time can make fortunes.

The time is now.

Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

We are stalking precious metal opportunity now.

The trap is set. We are waiting…

This opportunity is explained in the report “Silver Dip 2019”.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Here is why there is no risk for you.  The report is 100% guaranteed.

I do not sell book, reports and courses.  I offer benefits.  If  the Silver Dip 2019 does not bring you the benefits you expect, just let me know within 60 days and I’ll send you a quick, no questions asked, full refund.

I can’t promise that silver’s price will rise in the next 60 days.  I can guarantee you’ll be fully satisfied with the report or… you can have your money back in full.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Gary

 

(1) www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/120402162546.htm

(2) www.nytimes.com: Mini recession 2016

Dollar Danger


Social Security runs out of surplus this year.

A recent Wall Street Journal article, “Social Security expected to-dip into its reserves this year” (1) says:  The Social Security program’s costs will exceed its income this year for the first time since 1982, forcing the program to dip into its nearly $3 trillion trust fund to cover benefits.

This is three years sooner than expected a year ago, partly due to lower economic growth projections, according to the latest annual report the trustees of Social Security and Medicare released Tuesday. The program’s income comes from tax revenue and interest from its trust fund.

The trust fund will be depleted in 2034 and Social Security will no longer be able to pay its full scheduled benefits unless Congress takes action to shore up the program’s finances. Without any changes, recipients then would receive only about three-quarters of their scheduled benefits from incoming tax revenues.

The report also said that Medicare’s hospital insurance fund would be depleted in 2026, three years earlier than anticipated in last year’s report. Absent changes, the program then would be able to handle 91% of costs.

social security

This chart from the Social Security site shows funds flowing into the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) trust fund and how it is projected in 2032 the surplus will be gone.  From that time on, in current legislation, no specific amounts will be  guaranteed.

In other words Social Security dips into its three trillion dollars of reserves starting this  year.   The reserves will keep payments up as projected until 2032.  That’s great to have all that money stored up.

But wait a minute!

First keep in mind that the surplus is already being tapped sooner than projected.   How much can we trust the 2032 projection?

Plus what are these reserves composed of anyway?

The Social Security website (2) says: Social Security benefits are paid from the reserves of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) trust fund.  The reserves are funded from dedicated tax revenues and interest on accumulated reserve holdings, which are invested in Treasury securities.

The Social Security Act provides that the funds are maintained “on the books of the Treasury.” The Treasury manages the Social Security accounts in much the same way that a bank manages a checking account: Accurate accounts are kept of the cash deposits and the accruing interest; cash (plus interest) withdrawals are allowed whenever needed; and in the meantime, the bank can put the cash to other uses.

So the Social Security reserves are like money in the bank, but the bank is the Treasury  and the Treasury has invested that money?

Right?

Not quite!

The Social Security site goes on to say: Until the invested amounts are needed to pay benefits, the cash is intermingled with the Treasury’s cash operations for the rest of the government.

Although these procedures do not affect the budget accounts of the rest of the government, they do affect the Treasury’s cash operations. When the trust fund tax income is deposited with the Treasury, the amount of cash that the Treasury must borrow from the public for its other operations is reduced.

Because the surplus Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASDI) funds are essentially loaned to the rest of the government, a full understanding of the effects of  (OASDI) financing requires consideration of its effects on the Treasury’s general account cash flows.

Uh Oh.  Those reserves are not especially invested by the government in assets that maintain their value and create a profit.

For example in recent years US forces have fired over 400 M142 High Mobility Artillery Rockets from Jordan  into Syria.  The rockets cost about $400,000 each so that might be $160 million of Social Security reserves, gone up in smoke.

I am not in the least bit qualified to know if that expenditure was for the greater good or not, but, but what does seem apparent is that  it won’t create a return for the Social Security fund.

There is a bigger  problem as well.

The Social Security site also says that Social Security changes will impact on the rest of the federal budget.

The draw down of Social Security reserves will create pressures on other parts of the US budget.

In other words. Until this year, the US Government earned tax revenues, borrowed money and had Social Security reserves to spend.  Starting this year the US Government has tax revenues and has to PAY back to Social Security.  This means they have to borrow more.

This also means they will have to pay higher interest rates that creates the really big problem of rising national debt service. 

For more than a decade American national debt was skyrocketing.  At the same time interest rates were plunging and have remained really low.  Now rates are expected to rise as will the US debt service.

The chart from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows that debt service is expected to more than triple in the next ten years.

dollar charts

This is an extra half trillion dollars a year that won’t be spent on roads, on the military, on health care, the environment or schools.  That rising debt service creates a vicious cycle that can only lead to a devaluation of the US dollar so the debt can be paid, but in phony terms.

This is why we the good value stock markets we track in our Purposeful Investing Course are non dollar denominated.

All investors need to diversify in more currencies than just the greenback.

Social Security runs out of surplus this year and though it has trillions in reserves… the word reserves, in this case, is part of a con game.   There are no reserves, just more demands on taxpayers.

The pressure these demands will make on the US Treasury will certainly cause the purchasing power of the US dollar to fall.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

motif

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

(1)  www.wsj.com: Social Security expected to-dip into its reserves this year

(2) www.ssa.gov: Social Security Trust Fund Cash Flows and Reserves

(3) www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-rise-fall-of-empires-nations-city-states/

 

Dollar Danger in Nature’s Law


Nature abhors a vacuum.   We should never defy this law.  Yet billions do every day… by borrowing.

We must have a balance in all things.   Work… play.  Awake… sleep.  Eating… exercise.  Earning… spending.  Borrowing… saving.

In 1951, my folks, who lived from paycheck to paycheck, made a big sacrifice and purchased me a set of  15 books, “The Child’s World”.

Volume #1 was “Stories of Childhood.”

childrens world

I keep the volumes, to remember how wonderful my mom and dad were… (actually mom is at 95) and especially to review the first issue, which is filled with fairy tales, every once in awhile.

I  have no idea what impressions reading these wisdom filed stories had on me as a child had, but am sure that the Aesop Fable of the “Ant & the Grasshopper” was somehow embedded in my psyche.

childrens world

The grasshopper lived high on the hog in the good time.  But perished in the winter because he did not save.

childrens world

Yet as a nation, the US borrows and borrows and borrows.

This increases US debt and also widens the trade balance with other nations.

The Wall Street Journal article “Taking Aim at a Trade Gap? It’s Easy to Miss the Target” shows one danger from too much borrowing as  nation.

The article says:  U.S. oil boom of the past decade shows emphasizing one industry or nation can’t wipe out a deficit

As recently as 2009, nearly half the U.S. trade deficit was driven by one product: petroleum. If ever a national strategy could be devised to tackle the trade gap by targeting an individual product or individual set of countries, American dependence on foreign oil was on its face the place to look.

From mid-2011 to mid-2015, U.S. oil production climbed 78%, easily eclipsing the volume of imports.
But in the same decade that America tackled oil, the deficit outside of petroleum exploded. The overall trade gap has been widening in recent years even though one of its biggest sources has effectively disappeared.

Trade balances writ large are a function of how much Americans invest and save. When domestic saving isn’t enough to cover investment, the balance is made up from abroad. Low saving leads to wider trade deficits. Conversely, high-saving countries, such as Germany and China, run surpluses that fund the consumption and investment of others.

One major reason the U.S. didn’t shrink its trade deficit was simultaneous fiscal deficits.

When government borrowing rises, it needs money from somewhere. Consumers could dramatically ramp up their saving and purchase Treasurys—which would dent consumption—but in practice did not. That leaves foreign nations with financial surpluses as the biggest source of funds buying up U.S. debt—nations that save a lot and export more than they import.

“It’s a contradiction in terms of policies to say we want to borrow a lot for fiscal operations but don’t want to borrow from other countries, which is what the trade deficit amounts to,” Mr. Hamilton said.

Large tax cuts and spending increases enacted by Congress and the Trump administration are poised to push fiscal deficits above $1 trillion in coming years. That implies trade deficits will grow.

The US debt and trade deficit are likely to grow.  This will weaken the US dollar versus currencies in high saving countries such as Germany, Japan and China.

One way to cash in on this fact is by investing in good value, non US dollar stock markets such as those described below.

Gary

Spend time earning instead of spending!

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

motif

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com: Taking aim at a trade gap its easy to miss the target