Tag Archive | "us debt"

Dollar Danger


Social Security runs out of surplus this year.

A recent Wall Street Journal article, “Social Security expected to-dip into its reserves this year” (1) says:  The Social Security program’s costs will exceed its income this year for the first time since 1982, forcing the program to dip into its nearly $3 trillion trust fund to cover benefits.

This is three years sooner than expected a year ago, partly due to lower economic growth projections, according to the latest annual report the trustees of Social Security and Medicare released Tuesday. The program’s income comes from tax revenue and interest from its trust fund.

The trust fund will be depleted in 2034 and Social Security will no longer be able to pay its full scheduled benefits unless Congress takes action to shore up the program’s finances. Without any changes, recipients then would receive only about three-quarters of their scheduled benefits from incoming tax revenues.

The report also said that Medicare’s hospital insurance fund would be depleted in 2026, three years earlier than anticipated in last year’s report. Absent changes, the program then would be able to handle 91% of costs.

social security

This chart from the Social Security site shows funds flowing into the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) trust fund and how it is projected in 2032 the surplus will be gone.  From that time on, in current legislation, no specific amounts will be  guaranteed.

In other words Social Security dips into its three trillion dollars of reserves starting this  year.   The reserves will keep payments up as projected until 2032.  That’s great to have all that money stored up.

But wait a minute!

First keep in mind that the surplus is already being tapped sooner than projected.   How much can we trust the 2032 projection?

Plus what are these reserves composed of anyway?

The Social Security website (2) says: Social Security benefits are paid from the reserves of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) trust fund.  The reserves are funded from dedicated tax revenues and interest on accumulated reserve holdings, which are invested in Treasury securities.

The Social Security Act provides that the funds are maintained “on the books of the Treasury.” The Treasury manages the Social Security accounts in much the same way that a bank manages a checking account: Accurate accounts are kept of the cash deposits and the accruing interest; cash (plus interest) withdrawals are allowed whenever needed; and in the meantime, the bank can put the cash to other uses.

So the Social Security reserves are like money in the bank, but the bank is the Treasury  and the Treasury has invested that money?

Right?

Not quite!

The Social Security site goes on to say: Until the invested amounts are needed to pay benefits, the cash is intermingled with the Treasury’s cash operations for the rest of the government.

Although these procedures do not affect the budget accounts of the rest of the government, they do affect the Treasury’s cash operations. When the trust fund tax income is deposited with the Treasury, the amount of cash that the Treasury must borrow from the public for its other operations is reduced.

Because the surplus Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASDI) funds are essentially loaned to the rest of the government, a full understanding of the effects of  (OASDI) financing requires consideration of its effects on the Treasury’s general account cash flows.

Uh Oh.  Those reserves are not especially invested by the government in assets that maintain their value and create a profit.

For example in recent years US forces have fired over 400 M142 High Mobility Artillery Rockets from Jordan  into Syria.  The rockets cost about $400,000 each so that might be $160 million of Social Security reserves, gone up in smoke.

I am not in the least bit qualified to know if that expenditure was for the greater good or not, but, but what does seem apparent is that  it won’t create a return for the Social Security fund.

There is a bigger  problem as well.

The Social Security site also says that Social Security changes will impact on the rest of the federal budget.

The draw down of Social Security reserves will create pressures on other parts of the US budget.

In other words. Until this year, the US Government earned tax revenues, borrowed money and had Social Security reserves to spend.  Starting this year the US Government has tax revenues and has to PAY back to Social Security.  This means they have to borrow more.

This also means they will have to pay higher interest rates that creates the really big problem of rising national debt service. 

For more than a decade American national debt was skyrocketing.  At the same time interest rates were plunging and have remained really low.  Now rates are expected to rise as will the US debt service.

The chart from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows that debt service is expected to more than triple in the next ten years.

dollar charts

This is an extra half trillion dollars a year that won’t be spent on roads, on the military, on health care, the environment or schools.  That rising debt service creates a vicious cycle that can only lead to a devaluation of the US dollar so the debt can be paid, but in phony terms.

This is why we the good value stock markets we track in our Purposeful Investing Course are non dollar denominated.

All investors need to diversify in more currencies than just the greenback.

Social Security runs out of surplus this year and though it has trillions in reserves… the word reserves, in this case, is part of a con game.   There are no reserves, just more demands on taxpayers.

The pressure these demands will make on the US Treasury will certainly cause the purchasing power of the US dollar to fall.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

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The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

motif

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

(1)  www.wsj.com: Social Security expected to-dip into its reserves this year

(2) www.ssa.gov: Social Security Trust Fund Cash Flows and Reserves

(3) www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-rise-fall-of-empires-nations-city-states/

 

Economic Alarms Ringing


Three economic alarms were all ringing this week.   They’ll scare the heck out of most investors.  Value investors will see an amazing opportunity instead.

When warnings of economic shifts don’t materialize, one of two things have happened.  The theories that suggest the shift could be wrong.  More likely, though there is a distortion growing.  Some hang-up is delaying the correction from taking place.

These distortions can be likened to dams with no outlet.  They’ll stop a natural flow for awhile.  Eventually the pressure will cause them to let go.  The longer the dam holds, the bigger the release when it bursts.

When the pressure klaxons are blaring, even if the dam seems to be strong, don’t ignore the warning.  Get to high ground above the dam.  When dealing with delays of the natural economic order, believe me, the question is never “Will a correction come?”  The only question is “When” and in economics we never really know.

There have been three economic hang-ups increasing their pressure since the last recession.  Each has lasted longer than they should but now the warning sirens are wailing.

The first distortion has been a deflationary trend.  Artificially induced low interest rates should have created inflation but has not.  This is changing.  The evidence can be seen in last Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal article “Measures of Inflation Tick Up Around the Globe”.

The article said: Modest upward pressure on wages and prices in the U.S. has been leading the way.

This growing inflation, and politics is pressuring the next distortion, which has been a weakness in the price of gold.   The Wall Street Journal article “Gold Prices Up on Data, Politics” also said last Wednesday:

The second week of Donald Trump’s presidency rattles investors; gold’s best month since June.

Both these distortions are accompanied by signs that one of the biggest economic distortions of all, a strong US dollar, is correcting.

The Wall Street Journal article entitled “Dollar slides as US data and Politics weigh” also reported on the greenback last Wednesday.

U.S. dollar slid to its lowest level since November, Tuesday amid weak U.S. data and new indications that the Trump administration would prefer a weaker dollar.

Merri’s and my business has supported a good life for almost 50 years by spotting economic contrasts  and distortions.  The unleashing of these three stresses, all at one time magnifies a special opportunity.  These factors can push gold prices high, but the price of another precious metal can rise even faster, explosively so.

Check out these Wall Street Journal articles.  They provide warnings you should not ignore.   Then read below and see how to cash in when the corrections develop.

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com measures of inflation tick up around the globe

(2) www.wsj.com Gold prices up amid political turmoil

(3) www.wsj.com: Dollar slides as US data & politics weigh

Borrow Low – Invest High

A special value investing tactic makes high risk, high profit speculations safer and more profitable.

For example in 2015, a 10,000 pound loan (in British pounds at $1.52 per pound) was used to purchase 1,091 shares of the silver ETF SLV.  Those shares rose to be worth $20,421 by 2016, a 34.34% additional profit.

 

From July 2015 to July 2016, the price of the silver ETF  iShares Silver Trust (Symbol SLV) rose from $13.92 and ounce to $18.71.  You can see the rise in the finance.yahoo.com chart below.

yahoo

A 10,000 pound loan (the pound was $1.52 per pound) purchased 1,091 shares of the silver ETF SLV.   Those shares rose to be worth $20,421 by 2016,  a 34.34% additional profit.

The profit did not stop there!

From 2015 to 2016 the pound dropped from $1.52 dollars per pound to only $1.39 dollars.  The 10,000 pound loan that had worth $15,200 in 2015 only required $13,900 to pay it off in 2016.

yahoo pound chart

The falling pound had created an extra $1,300 profit.

Do the math: 

Silver worth $20,421

Loan payoff  $13,900

Profit             $6,521

Cash Required  Zero

All this profit was made on the 10,000 pound loan.  No cash was required on the investor’s part.

The entire $6,521 was pure… extra profit.

Some investors borrowed less… others borrowed much more so their profits were even higher.

This example came from our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) which studies three main layers of value investing tactics in real time.

Tactic #1: Diversify equally in good value developed and emerging stock markets.
Tactic #2:  Use trending algorithms to increase, reduce or hold positions in these markets.
Tactic #3:  Add spice to a portfolio speculating in precious metals, when their price is under “ideal conditions”, using leveraged, low value currency loans.

An “ideal condition” is a rare distortion in an economic fundamental that history has shown “almost always” corrects itself.

The words “almost always” indicates that there is risk.  There is risk that a basic fundamental has changed and the distortion will not correct in any targeted period of time.   Or a new fundamental has shifted dynamics to such an extent that the distortion never corrects.  There is always risk.

Profit is the reward for taking that risk, but there is always a chance of loss which is why the third layer speculation is to be used like a spice… sparingly.

Pi looks for several ideal conditions in precious metals using the price of gold based on over 40 years of speculation in precious metals.

The first condition is gold’s price to inflation.   Gold is the anchor of the strategy but its ricing is perhaps the most speculative since a meaningful inflation rate is hard to define.

Gaining a true perspective on gold’s value is difficult because the price of gold was fixed for many years.  The gold price was fixed at $35 an ounce at the end of WWII and this fixing did not take into account the huge inflation this conflict created.   This also impacts any accuracy in understanding what the real the price of gold should have been at the end of the war.

Statistics can be misleading.  In the report Platinum Dip 2018 there is an analysis of inflation.

These factors distort the accuracy of the picture.  How much is gold really worth now?  What is its real value?  This is truly THE golden question.

At this time the magic number we sue for gold is $1,225 an ounce.  If gold’s price is much higher than $1,225, than the Silver Dip or Platinum Dip are not in an ideal condition.

When gold is priced ideally, then there are several ratios that can alert us to an ideal condition.

The first ratio is the gold to silver ratio.  When the gold silver ratio reaches 80 we consider speculation in silver to be ideal (if gold is ideally priced).

This value indicator is simple because the gold silver ratio is rarely as high as 80, only three times in 36 years as the chart below shows.

gold silver spread

Chart from www.goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html#36_year_gold_price

The spread was over 80 when we issued the original Silver Dip in the 1980s.  30 years later ideal conditions coincided again. The chart above shows how the spread was shooting towards 80 when we issued the Silver Dip 2015 report.

The spread hit 80 in 2015 and again in March 2016, but we can see from the chart above that a drop in the spread was on its way. The trend was for a continued lowering of the spread as silver’s price rise was much stronger than gold’s throughout 2016.

This chart below from infomine.com shows the trend clearly.

silver

http://www.infomine.com/investment/price-ratios/gold-silver/10-year/

Another ratio we watch is the gold to platinum ratio.   When the price of gold rises above the price of platinum, platinum’s price is at an ideal condition.

Platinum is a good value when it sells for less than gold and gold is close to our below its fair price ($1,225).   As the chart below shows, platinum costs more than gold more often than not.  The fundamental reasons for platinum’s high price, including platinum’s supply scarcity support this.

The chart below from Kitco.com shows the gold-platinum ratio.  The ratio is the red line and right axis.  The price of gold is the yellow line, left axis.  The price of platinum is the blue line, left axis, from 1975 to May 13, 2016.

gold

http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2016-06-27/Gold-to-Platinum-Ratio.html

Notice how each time the gold-platinum ratio (red) has spiked, 1975, 1982, 1985, 2002, 2009, shortly after the price of platinum (blue line) has skyrocketed shortly after.

The gold-platinum ratio was at an almost  historical low when this report was written and the “Silver Dip 2017” recommended a shift from speculating  in silver to speculating in platinum. The 2017 report recommended leveraging the platinum ETF “ETFS Physical Platinum Shares” (Symbol) PPLT.

The spice.  This type of speculating is not done on its own, but as an adjunct that enhances an existing equity portfolio.  The portfolio is used as collateral for a loan that is invested in the metal with an “ideal condition price”.

Let’s examine how a speculation in silver (based on a gold silver ratio’s ideal condition) increased the profits of a portfolio of good value developed and emerging market equity ETFs.

This study looks at the $100,000 invested in a portfolio we began tracking in our Pi course.  The portfolios were started September 2015 (591 days before this study or 17 months ago).  70% was invested in ten good value developed market ETFs and 30% in 10 good value emerging market ETFs.

This is a list of the shares in the Developed Market Portfolio.

Screen Shot 2017-02-19 at 12.30.18 PM

This is a list of the shares in the Emerging Market Portfolio.

Screen Shot 2017-02-19 at 12.30.55 PM

The good value portfolio was up 4.64% (a gain of $3,248) since inception and the emerging market portfolio is up 6.72% (a gain of $2,016).

A portfolio of these shares with an original investment of $100,000 invested 70%-30% after 591 days (February 2017) was worth $105,267, a 5.26% gain.

In this study we examine the change in performance when an additional $10,000 was risked on the iShares Silver ETF (Symbol SLV) beginning March 2016 when the gold silver ratio broached 80.

Image from www.macrotrends.net/1441/gold-to-silver-ratio

The price of SLV was $14.01 in March 2016 and is currently $17.06.

Screen Shot 2017-02-19 at 12.50.25 PM

Image from https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/slv?

Let’s examine profits under three different exit strategies.

Exit strategy #1:  No exit.  The $10,000 was worth $12,163 at the time of this study (February 2017).

Exit Strategy #2: Exit when Tradestops issued a Stop Loss signal November 2016 at a price of $16.07 per share.  The $10,000 was worth $11,457.

Exit Strategy #3: Exit when the Gold silver ratio dropped below 70 on January 2017.  The $10,000 was worth $11,365.

The overall portfolio performance was improved in each situation.

Exit strategy #1:  Profits increased from $5,267 to $7,430.  A 10% increase in the portfolio added a 41% increase in profit.

Exit Strategy #2: Profits increased from $5,267 to $6,724.  A 10% increase in the portfolio added a 27% increase in profit.

Exit Strategy #3: Profits increased from $5,267 to $6,632.  A 10% increase in the portfolio added a 26% increase in profit.

All of these additional profits were gained without a penny of extra investment.  All the profits came from loans that were invested in silver.

The other benefit beyond profit is safety from time.

When leveraging investments, time is most important.  Because leverage is secured by the entire portfolio rather than just the additional investment, the odds of a margin call are almost nil so the investor gets to determine how long the investment will have to mature.

Let’s take an example of the good value Pifolio above.

In this study the loan was $10,000.

The collateral is not the $10,000 investment in silver, but the entire portfolio which is now $115,267 ($105,267 plus the $10,000 in silver).

This means (if the rules of the lender requires a two to one loan ratio) that the portfolio would have to drop around 75% before there would be a margin call.  Such a loss is highly unlikely.

This margin has as much time as is needed to let fundamental forces work through the market.

Any profit gained comes without adding a penny to the portfolio.

The most important elements of making good investments are price and time.  There is always something about investments we won’t know, but the one thing we can trust is that investments purchased at the right price, and given time, have the highest odds that profits will flow.

Silver is falling. 

slv

Chart from finance.yahoo.com/chart/SLV?

Recently the silver ETF iShares Silver Trust (symbol SLV)  was priced 18.62% below the highest close of $19.60 from last August.   The mathematical system we track created a stop loss price of $16.18, showing that this precious metal moved into selling territory.  Now the share price is in the $15 per ounce range.

We Use Math to Spot Value. 

Whether one likes to trade or invest and hold, math based financial information works better than the spin, rumor and conjecture of the daily economic news.   Mathematical based investing can put us on a solid path to everlasting wealth that is not easily diverted by the daily drama that seems to be unfolding in the modern world.

For example, our Purposeful investing Course teaches three mathematically based routines that have been proven to out perform the market over time .

The first routine in the course is the quarterly examination by Keppler Asset Management of 43 equity markets and analysis of their value.  This makes it possible to create a base portfolio of Country ETFs based on basic value.  This passive approach to investing in ETFs is simply to invest in Country ETFs of good value equity markets.

For example, Keppler’s analysis in 2017 shows that the “Good Value Developed Market” Portfolio is twice the value of a US market index fund and a much better value than any of the other indices shown.  These are based on the cornerstones of value, price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield (except the European dividend yield).

The Good Value Developed Market Portfolio offers even better value than the Morgan Stanley Capital Index  Emerging Market Index.

keppler

History shows, that over the long run, math and value drive the price of markets.

Using math makes it simple, easy and inexpensive to diversify in the predictability of good value.

The second tool Pi provides is a way to actively monitor and shift the good value markets using trending and volatility algorithms.  These algorithms allow us to trade good value markets through downtrends and upticks to increase profits in a diversified even more.

These trending algorithms use the math that spotted the current condition of silver.

Use math to spot distortions that create ideal conditions for speculation.

Pi teaches the strategy of speculating in metals when speculative conditions are absolutely ideal.  The Silver Dip relies on a really simple theory… gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s and platinum’s price should maintain a parity with gold.

Our math based study has created an ideal price for gold and though its trending up it has passed the good value level we use.  Gold is still okay, but not a bargain any more.  Value investors only seek bargains.

When “Silver Dip 2017” was written profits on silver had been taken.

Platinum conditions are ideal for 2018.

Since 2014 the price of platinum has fallen below the price of gold and at the beginning of this year reached a historical low.  The distorted gold platinum spread suggests that platinum is a very good value so we are updating our dip report, and it will be the “Platinum Dip 2018”.

The report explains how to speculate in platinum plus outlines the following:

  • How to use theDip strategy in platinum without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in platinum if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment and who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons conditions are better for a Platinum Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest and speculate in gold, silver or platinum in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Platinum Dip 2018” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

The first way the Dip adds extra performance is with leverage.

The second way to enhance performance is to maintain the leverage in poor value currencies.   Choosing which currencies to borrow is almost as important as choosing which metal to invest in.  The examples in this report have shown loans made in British pounds.  Other times it has been better to borrow Japanese yen, Swiss francs, once Mexican pesos.

Currently the best currency to borrow is US dollars.

The Platinum Dip 2018 report reviews each currency and which is best to borrow now and what to watch for.  Sometimes it is best to borrow a second currency and pay off the initial loan in mid stream.

Rising interest rates make the US stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Platinum Dip 2017” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in platinum.

Learn how to get platinum loans for as low as 1.58%.  See why to beware of  certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how platinum profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of gold and silver with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine the real value of gold, silver and platinum.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from the gold and silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of platinum to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we eliminated the cost of paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2017  $39.95

Get the Silver Dip 2017 FREE when you subscribe to the Purposeful investing Course.  Act Now.

Subscribe to the first year of the Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  You also receive the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” FREE.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the three reports right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days, and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and your initial 160 page online introduction and the regular bi weekly emailed updates for a year.

Gary

Trading Down Part VII


Trading Down Part VII

This series has looked at why a huge new economic era will benefit US and Ecuador real estate.  We have also looked at a different Ecuador property for sale each step of the way.

See a link to see this message’s Cotacachi Ecuador property below.

First, this last report on “Trading Down” asks “What do the following have in common with big business and trading down?”

Ecuador and US real estate…

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Why would Merri and I buy a beat up 180 year old inn in Ecuador?

Christmas trees and Mexicans?

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Ashe County is one of the top Christmas producers in the US. Here is a Christmas Tree farm next to our farm.

North Carolina farm roads…

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We have put in miles of road on our farm.

Deer…

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Here is a nice buck I snapped sneaking though our woods.

Water…   

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We have a lot of water on our land… all running down the mountain.

Ecuador and US real estate… Christmas trees and Mexicans… North Carolina farm and roads… deer and water.

What do these all have in common with trading down?   What is their connection?  They are all connected because they all follow the same universal rule that follows the path of least resistance.

Christmas trees farms are everywhere in Ashe County.  Here they are being grown within the city limits of West Jefferson.  Because Christmas trees are cut and wrapped in late October, early November many Mexicans arrive in the mountains this time of year. We are seeing them everywhere.

They are following the path of least resistance to earn income and the flow north where there is work.

Photo floating to the left

We have put in over eight miles of roads on our farm shown in blue.

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Usually the first question people ask when visiting our farm is; “This is so remote how did you find this place”?   The second question is “How did you figure out where to put the roads?”

My answer to the road question is simple.  “I did not need a surveyor or engineer.  We have a lot of deer on the farm. I simply followed the deer trails.”

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Here’s two does I photoed feeding in our front yard.

The deer follow the path of least resistance so their trails produce roads that run as level as you can get.

The entire farm is a reflection of this universal rule… not a farm in the Blue Ridge sense, but a…

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global headquarters with a…

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barn like seminar hall hung over Little Horse Creek…

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barns converted to apartments and…

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farm houses and…

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nestled on the creek and…

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tucked in…

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remote parts of the woods, with…

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cozy accommodations so guests from around the world can…

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meet to share global ideas about health and wealth… investing and business.

Those who grew up here are selling their farms so they can move into the city and those like Merri and me from the city are moving to the farms… as technology… cars… trains…. planes… the internet and low cost communications change their utility.

All these… like water following the path of least resistance and flow…

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downhill.

This brings us to the US.   The price of American real estate… compared to European and Japanese has dropped enormously in the last several years.  Even more than it seems when the devaluation of the US dollar is factored in.

This gives America an advantage… cheap offices… cheap gas stations… cheap homes… cheap factories.

Trading down is the process of mankind following the path of least material resistance. Trading down is the process of  big business following the path of least resistance.

Energy of industrialization has been run on  human fuel, farmers moving from rural to urban and suburban environments.  From the farm to the factory as they dramatically improve productivity at a very low cost.  Their enhanced wages increase their consumption.   In short the burst of increased affluence over the past several centuries has been fueled by cheap labor enhanced mainly by fossil fuels.

In this era past big business followed the path of least resistance wherever labor was cheapest in the world.

Globalization and improved technology plus a serious 2008 recession reduced the costs of US labor and enhanced the likelihood that the eleven American benefits we have reviewed in this seven part series will again help the USA be an important leader of mankind into the next socio-economic era.

What About Ecuador and Trading Down?

Ecuador gains from this trading down process in several ways.   First Ecuador real estate and labor were really inexpensive to begin.   Since Ecuador uses the US dollar as its currency, it benefits from the greenback’s fall as Ecuador real estate, labor and debt become less expensive.

In this process of trading down, technology creates a circular flow… just like the flow of farmers to the city and urban dwellers to the farm.  Immigrants move to America as Americans (who no longer have to labor) move out of the US to a less expensive and less cumbersome lifestyle.

The two big losers in the current soci0-economic pact are lenders to the USA and those on fixed incomes.

Ecuador real estate potential is enhanced by increased inflation and this is why Ecuador real estate investing makes sense. Messages at this site monitor investments in Ecuador.

The collapse of the US economy made real estate in America more affordable… but reduced income, jobs and wealth also.  This has forced the US government to stimulate the economy at the expense of the US dollar.  This will cause inflation.

This is forcing many middle class Americans to move to less expensive areas in the US and abroad.

60 million baby boomers have begun to retire.  Many of their pensions and social security will be severely squeezed by inflation, leaving these people with one of five options.

#1: Keep working
#2: Move to less expensive areas within the US
#3: Export their retirement
#4: Live in near poverty
#5: Die

This is one reason I  believe in Ecuador.  Imagine this. 60 million boomers will retire over the next 20 years. We boomers are the most spoiled group of consumers as a demographic class that has ever existed on earth. We were promised the world. We were given the world. Now the magic is about to disappear.

Assume that 10% of these boomers will decide to move to less expensive countries. That’s 6 million people. Where is the most likely place to go? Eastern Europe offers great potential but is a long distance from the US.

Estimating the Number of Americans Who Move Abroad.

My estimates at 105 may also be low. An article in Barrons entitled, “A new life in Panama” by Bob  Adams tells of  a silent immigration of Americans retirees and more, seeking to  work and live in other nations.

I have been writing and speaking and urging people to consider an international life for not quite 40 years. Yet the scale of the  immigration that is taking place now surprises even me.  The author of this article did a survey with over 115,000 respondents.

Any relocating for less than two years or because of military, government or their jobs was eliminated.  The survey uncovered uncovered that 1.6 million  households have already made the decision to relocate. 1.8 million households are seriously considering relocating and 7.7 million households are somewhat seriously considering relocating. The survey suggests that in total, an astounding 10% of American households are considering relocating abroad and another 10% are considering owning a home to either vacation or live part time abroad or 20% of Americans are n the move!

More surprisingly the largest group which is making these plans are in households aged 25 to 34.

If this survey is anywhere near correct (I will assume that Barron’s vetted this at least a bit), then the wave of Americans headed abroad is larger than I believed.

So where will these Americans (Canadians, British, Australians, Kiwis and Continentals who are leaving their homelands as well) go?

Canada is out…too expensive and too cold. Most people will head south.

Mexico stands to be #1. Prices there have risen and there is a lot of anti-gringo sentiment.  After all there have been numerous Mexican-American wars. The building of a fence across the border will not help either.

The law and order crisis in Mexico has also grown. Yet it’s still probably the number one benefactor of this flow due to location.

Cuba, when it opens, will be ripe and good as well. A great place to buy when you can assume no negative political circumstances. The low end Caribbean is also good except for those darn hurricanes that will put lots of people off…plus many water and transportation problems and the fact that few of the islands have a real infrastructure.

Panama is good. There is a lot  of English spoken, many yanks already there, but weather is lousy if you want to be in town (hot and humid) and prices are no longer low.

We see many Americans now moving from Panama to Ecuador.

Ditto for Costa Rica.  The rest of Central America lacks infrastructure though there are some nice gringo settlements although they are expensive.

Colombia and Venezuela are the first nations with the potential for full fledged economies  and infrastructures after Panama and Mexico. They can be wonderful places but security and political risks stop most from going there for now.  If the security/drug/crime issues are resolved and image cleans up…go buy in Colombia.  If the political system shifts in Venezuela this could be a great opportunity.

Argentina & Uruguay? Both Buenos Aries and Montevideo should do well also.  They are further from North America but both have very European flavors.

Ecuador, 3 hours and 45 minutes from the US will benefit as the first nation with a full infrastructure and really low cost of living.

If Ecuador gets just 10% of six million Americans who leave the US, imagine what this means to this nation of 11 million.  This is more than a 5% increase in population. However look at what it means in dollars!

According to the CIA World Fact Book, Ecuador has a Gross Domestic Income of $4,300 per annum per person. That makes a total GDP of $47,300,000,000.

Imagine what happens if the 600,000 gringos have an average income of $18,000 a year per person. That adds $10,800,000,000. This is an annual income that almost equals 20% of the entire national GDP! This is one reason why Merri and I include Latin equities in our investment portfolio and are buying more and more real estate in Ecuador.

Every cloud has a silver lining and two clouds casting shade on the greenback’s value are liberal money supply and political interference to support presidential elections. The silver lining comes in the form of profits made in places where fed up Americans and Canadians decide to go when they leave home.

This is why we have purchased a hotel, an office building, 13 condos and houses, and a 900+ acre hacienda in Ecuador over the last 10 years.

ecuador-health

Our hacienda Rosaspamba.

What if the 11 benefits are not enough?

This report is about global diversification with the US and Ecuador as parts of an overall plan.

I believe the US debt is high and will cause the US dollar to fall, so this report is about being short American currency because the advancements in the US will be due in part to a declining greenback.

As one of the first Americans to write about being an international citizen, I am suspicious of my US enthusiasm.  But I am suspicious of Europe, China and India as well.

That is why since the release of my first book “Passport to International Profit” in the 1970s I have preached and practiced being a One Man Multinational.

The core message in “Passport to International Profit” was to become a one man multinational where you live in one country bank in another country and earn in another  a six point command posture which is to:

Let’s take this one step further. To have a fulfilling lifestyle make your residence in a place you love and want to be. Do not limit yourself to where you are or where you were born.

More than 40 years after we left the USA,  Merri and I still believe that being global is vital from an investing point of view and enlivening for one’s lifestyle.

This does not mean that the US should be excluded as a place to live or invest.

The 11 American benefits reviewed in this series suggests that the USA may remain a leader in the upcoming socio-economic evolution of “Trading Down”.

That is why Merri and I have increased the weighting of our portfolio in the USA.

That is also one reason why Merri and I love Ecuador as a place to own real estate and live.

Gary

Gain From the Volatility of the Next Four Years

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the next four years.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   The market’s downward shift is simply due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics will create an uncertain era. Everyone is shaken whether they are pleased with the election or not and nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third we’ll see rising interest rates over the next 48 months. This will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the downtrends  to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies increase through bull markets and bear, through good presidents and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.   He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

silver chart

(Click on chart from Google.com  (1) to enlarge.)   Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2016” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2017 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2106”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2017” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2017 free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2016” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2106” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Gary