Tag Archive | "Unemployment"

Is Artificial Existential?


Rarely do we see the biggest threats until they are upon us.

For example, computerization.

Computers bring us many good things.

They have also turned the world upside down.

The message “Labor With Creativity” looked at the the end of labor… as we know it… due to computerization.

The article said:  Take trucking as an example.  Autonomous self-driving trucks will eradicate millions of trucking jobs.  The shifts in labor are not a future problem either.  They started decades ago and really accelerated in 2011.  The way you, I and the world works, lives and plays has to adapt.  This shift affects us all, working or retired.  Entire sectors of commerce will evaporate.   Markets will crash. Panic, fear and divisiveness will grow.

Pensions, insurance companies and governments won’t keep promises.

Even currencies will fail us.  They won’t deliver the purchasing power we expect or need.

The rich will get richer.  The poor… more so.

Sound frightening?

It is!

And computerization is already past being upon us.  Computers and robots gobbled up jobs so fast that we hardly recognize it until we watch Madman on TV and see how things have changed.

Yet there is a bigger problem… much worse.

This one is almost upon us now.

Artificial intelligence… a change so huge that everything we know, believe in and trust, could cease to exist.

Elon Musk,  the head of Tesla Motors and Space X, (among other things) recently urged the need to regulate artificial intelligence “before it’s too late.”  He believes that artificial intelligence is an “existential threat to mankind.  Some A.I. scientists feel that this is an alarmist but everyone recognizes the valid concerns about impact on weapons, jobs and privacy.

Should we simply drop A.I.?

We can’t!

It’s too late.

Other nations, China, Russia could overtake us.

A.I. in America may be bad… even fatal.

America, without A.I…. while China or Russia or any other country has it, that’s even worse!

An MIT Review article says:

Russian state news organization RT reports that Vladimir Putin believes “whoever becomes the leader in [artificial intelligence] will become the ruler of the world.” Earlier this year, the Chinese government announced plans to surpass Western nations in the field. Predictably, Elon Musk tweeted his concern: “Competition for A.I. superiority at national level most likely cause of WW3.”

Should we worry about AI’s existential threat?

The article links to two articles:

#1: Yes, We Are Worried About the Existential Risk of Artificial Intelligence. (1)

#2: No, the Experts Don’t Think Super-intelligent A.I. is a Threat to Humanity. (2)

I urge you to read them.

Like it or not…

We will have to deal with Artificial Intelligence.

It’s here.  It will change everything.

Don’t depend too much on the internet, electricity or phones.  Almost all the things we trust now could change.

The greatest asset we can have to prosper from these problems is a keen mind and healthy body.

Creative Intelligence will be the golden asset that takes advantage of artificial intelligence.  That’s why Merri and I will be working hard to share ideas about how we can all be smarter, happier, healthier and more fulfilled.  Let’s take advantage of the changes that are rapidly imposed in our lives.

Gary

Reduce Stress With Sound

 

Join the top 3 percent of intelligent people in the world.

Become more independent and relaxed by becoming smarter.

A study of 10,000 British people studied the pure relationship between intelligence and happiness stability.

IQ can predict the emotional ups and downs of life.   The research found that the lower the IQ,  the more stress and higher the ups and downs in life satisfaction.  The differences were not due to education, income, or jobs either, but simply IQ.

gary-scott-seminar

Delegates at a Super Thinking course relaxing in their secret rose garden.

Free yourself by becoming smarter, healthier, happier… in just weeks… hearing  a relaxation session that takes you into your secret rose garden.

Merri, David and I originally developed this session for our Super Thinking courses and have set it into an online workshop for you.

Listen… just 18 minutes day.  We guarantee your life will be better.

Inflate Your IQ.

When it comes to money… inflation is cheating.

That’s bad for you.

When it comes to intelligence… inflating is smart… fair… good for you and it’s good for the rest of the world.

Monetary inflation is a sneaky government and business trick.

What cost a dollar in 1965 can easily cost $15 now.

They promise you more.

Liars?

They devalue the currency so you get more dollars that buy less.  They can rip off your salary,  your pension…raise insurance, almost everything.

And they make you work harder… longer… for less.

Whittle, whittle, whittle.  Push, push, push.  That’s what monetary inflation does to you.

Fight back… overcome the inflation trick.  Inflate your IQ as you relax.

Gain more than IQ.

Be smarter… more energetic…. healthier… more relaxed.

That’s the way to get ahead!

Create more income opportunity.  Reduce stress.  Improve your health.  Be naturally smarter… use Super Thinking.

You can improve your IQ in just weeks.

You might well ask… How is this possible?

Here’s how the scientists say it is possible.

A Wall Street Journal article entitled “Ways to Inflate Your IQ”(1)  show how you can be smarter and actually add matter to your brainThe article says:

           Many people think of IQ as a genetic trait, like brown eyes or short legs: You’re born with it and you’re stuck with it.

Now, a growing body of research is showing that a person’s IQ can rise—and even fall—over the years.

Scores can change gradually or quickly, after as little as a few weeks of cognitive training, research shows.

British students were given IQ tests and brain scans at ages 12 to 16 and again about four years later.  9% of the students showed a significant change of 15 points or more in IQ scores.

The study published in Nature said that on a scale where 90 to 110 is considered average, one student’s IQ rose 21 points to 128 from 107, lifting the student from the 68th percentile to the 97th compared with others the same age. 

MRIs in this study showed changes in gray matter in areas corresponding to fluctuations in the kid’s skills.

There are practical steps people can take to see longer-term IQ changes.  New tasks stimulate the brain most.  Young adults given just one month of intense training in juggling, found an increase in the corresponding gray matter in the brain as early as seven days after the training began.

Fluctuations in IQ scores over time underscore the brain-boosting benefits of musical training and new experiences throughout a lifetime.

Music lessons are linked to higher IQ throughout life.  Six years’ lessons lifted children’s IQ scores an average 7.5 points.

 Improve the brain through music… without lessons.

Here’s the Super Thinking story…

The educational program Merri and I developed uses a form of brain wave integration that increases IQ.

Super Thinking uses frequency (in music and a number of other ways) to integrate brain waves so the process of absorbing, processing and recalling information is vastly accelerated.  The music creates the three C’s:  Calm, Clarity and Coherence.

This Super Thinking program is not a gimmick or trick… just advanced education.

Certain types of Baroque music are the base, and they make you smarter!

Proof?

At least four best selling books, “Psychic Discoveries Behind the Iron Curtain”,  “Superlearning”, the “Mozart Effect” and “Superlearning 2000″ showed how to learn and think more powerfully based on systems drawn from the Bulgarian educational master, Dr. Georgi Lozanov.

This Baroque music tactic alone is so powerful that Small Business Innovation Research… an official site of the US government granted over $100,000 for the specific purpose they said was: to provide a method to remove barriers which hinder or prevent the employment of blind persons.  An innovative method, the Lozanov Learning System, is proposed to help train blind persons to become computer programmers and operators of automated equipment.

Merri was among just a few who learned this technique directly from Dr. Lozanov the time he visited the USA.

Our Super Thinking workshop enhanced this system with numerous other tactics.

We added slight alterations in nutrition that create a higher IQ.   Altered nutritional tips in Super Thinking can make anyone 25% smarter!

Baroque Music and nutrition are just part of seven, easy to use, learning techniques that make you smarter.

Gain any skill, from computers to athletics to conversational languages…in less time…two-to-five times faster.

Here’s a huge bonus.  Super Thinking also relieves stress.  Super Thinking is fun.

You can use a Super Thinking focus in everything:  health… earning… education… investing.

Super Thinking works on the learner first…the data second.  This system “grows the learner” rather than the information.

If you have 4.5 inches of information flowing through a 4 inch learning pipe, the solution is not to add another inch of information.  The answer is create a six inch IQ pipe!

Share our years of experience.

For nearly 50 years, Merri and I have conducted hundreds of courses and tours for tens of thousands, in dozens of countries (even behind the Iron Curtain).  Our Super Thinking Workshop has been one of the most profound.  Now the workshop is even better online because it condenses Super Thinking so you can increase your IQ, at home… right away.

The workshop shows how these mind expanding tactics can be applied to starting and running a business for extra income, to forex trading and investing.  Athletes of all types… golfing being one common sport benefit.  Our Super Thinking plan goes far beyond Lozanov and allows you to rapidly get smarter in every part of your life.

For example, real estate broker, Suzy Kurinsky took the workshop to help her learn Spanish.

She wrote: “You are the BEST!!! Your Seminar was fantastic! I am so excited. I had procrastinated fulfilling my continuing education for my Broker’s License and then just before my surgeries, I realized by expiration date isn’t Nov. 12th – it is Sept 12th. Prior to taking your course I had only completed 3 units of the required 45 units. I thought I would take your course and then complete my remaining 42 units over the next 2 weeks. However, I took one class exam on Saturday night, August 27th. I didn’t even take the cellophane off the required Course manuals until after I saw the two of you today less than 5 hours ago! I used your techniques and completed 39 units of continuing education today. I have now completed all 45 units. All of my test scores were in the 90.6-96% range.  My course exam information is listed below. I just wanted to let you know how valuable your course was to me. Thanks again!”

Super thinking can improve almost anything you do… faster, better, more fun and with less stress.

Another attendee to the Super Thinking Workshop sent this note.

 Thank you for the wonderful workshop on Super Learning + Spanish!  I really enjoyed the workshop and getting to know you.   I can see several ways to apply what I learned in the classes I teach.

Since I returned home, I have purchased some of the CDs of Baroque music and thought about which specific pieces will work best in different parts of my classes.  I am also reading Perfect Health by Deepak Chopra.  I found your discussion of this book to be very helpful in showing how to balance one’s life.  I have adjusted my daily schedule, and I can already notice a difference in my productivity.

Super Thinking can help improve your health. Super Thinking can make you rich and add richness to your life.

However the time, travel expense and workshop cost (delegates have paid up to $999) have prohibited many from getting this benefit.

That’s why we have created the workshop in electronic form.  Get Super Thinking online for less than fifty bucks.

You can order the online Super Thinking Workshop here ($49.95)

Relax in the Secret Rose Garden.

The workshop is divided into two parts.  Part one is the application… the sessions that tell you exactly what to do, what music to use and even includes two recorded sessions based around a secret rose garden that you can use.  We have kept this portion short and simple so you can easily start immediately.

Part two is a longer portion on theory.

Part one is enough.

Super Thinking is like jogging… giving results if you simply do it!

You do not have to know why Super Thinking works to increase your IQ.   But Part Two explains why you are getting the good results from Part One, if you want to know.

You might ask…”Will it work for me”?

The Super Thinking Workshop will help increase your IQ.

Our guarantee.

I guarantee it.  Order the Super Thinking Workshop.  Use it for two months.  If you are not totally satisfied… in any way, during that time, simply let me know and I’ll send a full refund… immediately… no questions asked.

Order the online Super Thinking Workshop here ($49.95)

Another Super Thinking workshop attendee wrote: Listening to the two of you during our time together has suddenly got me to thinking, and although some of the ideas still seem foreign to me,  I am at a point in my life now where I can say, “anything is possible”.   I am now willing to embrace and allow myself to experience the world of possibility and let it take me in directions I may have in the past resisted.  I really don’t know where all this is going to lead me but I am now willing to explore, develop and grow.   Thank you again for a wonderful four days!!

Inflation is a cheat… a crime when it comes to money.  Inflating your IQ to beat inflation is simple good sense.  Learn Super Thinking now with no risk.  Begin to increase your intelligence today.

Order the online Super Thinking Workshop  $49.95.

Gary

(1) Read Wall Street Journal article Ways to Inflate Your IQ

(2) See government grant records on teaching blind persons with the Lozanov method

 

(1) www.technologyreview.com: Yes, We Are Worried About the Existential Risk of Artificial Intelligence.

(2) www.technologyreview.com/s/602410/no-the-experts-dont-think-superintelligent-ai-is-a-threat-to-humanity/?utm_source=MIT+Technology+Review&utm_campaign=ca4afa470f-The_Download&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_997ed6f472-ca4afa470f-153756177

 

Economic Cyclical Danger


The time has come to review the economic cycle.  Many economic events suggest we are seeing a shift in the economic cycle.

market-value

There are three phases in the economic cycle;

Phase I:  Recession

Lower Inflation Expected
Interest Rates Come Down
Depressed Demand
Rising Unemployment
PE Multiples Contract

This phase which we saw in 2007 and 2008 is an ideal time to invest in bonds.

Phase II:  Recovery

Inverted Yield Curve
Rush for Liquidity
Authorities Relax Money Supply
High Unemployment
High Level of Uncertainty

This phase which began in 2009 is an ideal time to invest in shares.

Phase III: Boom

Rising Inflation
Short Rates Pushed Up
Bond Yields Rise
Falling Unemployment
PE Multiples Expand

There are many signs that the economy is transitioning into this phase.  This phase is an ideal time to invest in cash and short term investments.

wsj graph

The chart above is from a recent Wall Street Journal article “Economy Up, Stocks Down? Don’t Be Surprised!” (1).  This article outlines one reason why there is increasing danger of a stock market correction.

The article says:  Investors bullish about a Trump capital expenditure boom must realize that buybacks, one of the bull market’s drivers, may suffer.

Weak corporate investment has been one of the economy’s great flaws. An expected boost in capital spending—driven by rising confidence, stronger profits and tax reform—is one reason the stock market has soared.  But investors are confusing the benefits that rising spending would bring to the economy with its short-term impact on the stock market. A boom in corporate investment could be a drag on stocks.

As the economy struggled to grow, companies lacked the confidence to write big checks, except when they bought competitors. Instead they have been purchasing their own shares furiously. Companies in the S&P 500 have spent more than $2.5 trillion on share buybacks in the five years through 2016’s third quarter, according to FactSet. In the third quarter of 2016 alone buyback champs Apple Inc. and General Electric Co. repurchased $11.5 billion worth of their shares combined.  Yet the third quarter marked the second consecutive period of declining buybacks compared with a year earlier. In dollar terms, the drop was the largest since 2009, and it could get worse if more cash is diverted to new factories and equipment.”

However… in this boom phase there are better options due to the lack of synchronicity in stocks markets.   When the US market drops other stock markets can rise.   In fact many investors fleeing the US dollar or US stock market can cause other markets to rise.   These investors sell US shares and put the money in non dollar stocks

Take extra steps during inflationary times. Cash can be a really lousy idea.

Warren Buffet mentioned this problem when he said: Clinging to cash equivalents or long-term government bonds at present yields is almost certainly a terrible policy if continued for long.  Holders of these instruments, of course, have felt increasingly comfortable – in fact, almost smug – in following this policy as financial turmoil has mounted.  They regard their judgment confirmed when they hear commentators proclaim “cash is king,” even though that wonderful cash is earning close to nothing and will surely find its purchasing power eroded over time.

An alternative in Phase III is good value non US dollar stock markets.

When you invest in good value, you put the most basic power  to work to increase your savings and wealth.   This power creates wealth based on when you buy, not when you sell.   The purchase price of your investments are the main factor that determines your profit later on.

You can’t just rely on an appreciating market or wishful thinking to create profit, especially when the market is at a frothy all time high.  Share prices can collapse at any hour now.

The value of stocks is based on dividends, and long-term increase in value.  Value is based on total long term returns.   Value is created when well-run companies with strong finances and a history of shareholder-friendly management practices can be purchased at lower price than competitors and at a price lower than is usual.

There are only two ways to build your wealth in the stock market: You profit when share prices rise.  Over the long-term, share price rise because business grows or shares are repurchased.  You profit from dividends.

Good value shares are those that have the most profits and pay the highest dividends at the lowest price.   This is why we track the value analysis of Keppler Asset Management.   We can what value means in Keppler’s latest quarterly valuation of developed stock markets.

keppler

Which would you rather own, a portfolio that pays a dividend of 3.44% per annum purchased at 1.79 times book value (the MSCI European Index) or a portfolio  that pays 2.07% per annum and was purchased at 2.89 times book value (MSCI US Index)?

Innumerable factors, such as the economic cycle cause share prices to fluctuate up and down short term.  Long term, only one factor is the motivator of price, value.

US equity markets have risen to all time highs.  Better values in overseas developed stock markets have grown.  The economic cycle is making the US market riskier and the good value markets even  more special now.

See below how to develop slow moving, good value portfolios, that reduce time, effort as they increase profitability and safety.

Gary

WSJ.com:  Economy up stocks down don’t be surprised

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll Really Cash In Next Time”

Periods of good investing performance are always followed by periods that are bad.

Think about this…

The US dollar rose almost 50% above its lows of 2011.   Last year the greenback was at its highest level versus the Chinese yuan since 2008.  India’s rupee was also at an all-time low against the buck.  Other Asian currencies, the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit have plunged to depths not seen since the financial crisis of 1997-98.  The euro, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar had crashed.  In other words, the US dollar has been in a period of high performance.

The greenback is in a free fall.

Yet there is a bigger economic problem that can ruin the purchasing power of your cash faster than you can imagine.

While the dollar was rising non US governments and businesses accumulated almost ten trillion dollars of debt denominated in US dollars.

The terror in this debt is that it acts as a destructive and very rapid financial amplifier.  Dollar debt is like a short position.  When the dollar rises, borrowers scramble to short-cover their position by selling their own currency.  This defeats the purpose of their hedging as it increases the strength of the dollar.  So they short even more.  Those short sales create an upward dollar spiral.  The buck rises higher and higher, based entirely on fear and speculation.

When that leverage energy is spent the currency stalls and plummets out of control… like now.

The last time we saw such a upwards spiral was from 1980 to 1985.  The dollar rose 50% in those five years.

Guess what?

Then it collapsed 50% in just two years.

The US dollar is in a similar position as at the beginning of Ronald Reagan’s first term.  This was a time of widening budget deficits, rising interest rates and a US dollar surge.  This created a problem then, as it does now, and creates huge opportunity for those in the know.

The rise of the dollar, the debt and the US stock market creates an especially dangerous conflict because Donald Trump wants to balance America’s trade.  A stronger dollar makes this impossible because it pushes up the cost of US material, US labor and US exports.

The overpriced dollar, the poor value of the US stock market (compared to other markets) create a dollar crisis and a special opportunity for you and me as investors.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.  I had wished I could have invested more.

Now those circumstances are headed our way again.

And I have…

invested more… a lot more.

The swollen stock market prices, huge dollar denominated debt and weakening dollar are three patterns that can create a fast 50% profit.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.

There is a way to accumulate good value equities denominated in the following currencies of special strength, including the Euro, Canadian dollar, Singapore dollar, British pound, New Taiwan dollar and Chinese yuan.

The report reveals 21 special non dollar equities that have the greatest opportunity for safety and appreciation.

I kept the report short and simple, but include links to 153 pages of global stock market and asset allocation analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to inexpensively accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hit the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep the report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

 

 

Wanna Make a Bet?


Wanna make a bet… that there is more global economic disaster… somewhere ahead?

Frankly and sadly… we already are… all making a bet… whether we like to or not… because events are beyond our control and our government has placed each of us badly in debt.

In 2007 and 2008 the world saw its worst recession since the 1930s.

We are told that in 2009 the recession was at its end… maybe… yet only because of massive government spending… almost everywhere.

Governments from the US to Europe to Asia and even in emerging markets like Ecuador have debts they’ll never be able to honestly repay.

The rub is that this problem may continue to grow because… high unemployment is still with us and economic growth is still slow.

The dilemma of growing government in a weak economy is likely to get worse as the forces that build big business and big governments remain at work.

First, let’s look at big business.

An October 25, 2010  New York Times article “GlaxoSmithKline Agrees to Pay $750 Million to Settle Manufacturing Complaints” says:  GlaxoSmithKline, the British drug giant, has agreed to pay $750 million to settle criminal and civil complaints that the company for years knowingly sold contaminated baby ointment and an ineffective antidepressant — the latest in growing number of whistle-blower lawsuits that drug makers have settled with multimillion dollar fines.

Altogether, GlaxoSmithKline sold 20 drugs with questionable safety that were made at a huge plant in Puerto Rico that for years was rife with contamination.

Another article in the New York Times October 28, 2010 says: Firms Knew of Cement Flaws Before Spill, Panel Says Halliburton and BP knew weeks before the fatal explosion of the Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico that the cement mixture they planned to use to seal the bottom of the well was unstable but still went ahead with the job, the presidential commission investigating the accident said on Thursday.

In the first official finding of responsibility for the blowout, which killed 11 workers and led to the largest offshore oil spill in American history, the commission staff determined that Halliburton had conducted three laboratory tests that indicated that the cement mixture did not meet industry standards.

The result of at least one of those tests was given on March 8 to BP, which failed to act upon it, the panel’s lead investigator, Fred H. Bartlit Jr., said in a letter delivered to the commissioners on Thursday.

In short, it’s sad to say that all too often big businesses are big because they cut corners.

That cheating encourages the public to vote for bigger government to provide protection.

This creates a tension… bigger government complicates small business and forces businesses to get even bigger to survive the burdens put on them by officialdom.  Which in turn favors even more government.

Eventually government reaches the state where it houses the elite in its own cozy den.

For example, in the past private industry offered the best pay. The  government workers took a lower salary for job security.

This is no longer true.

An article at jobs.AOL .com shows that current government jobs give rich benefits packages and higher wages than in the private sector.

Unlike most private employees, federal workers have a choice of several health plans and life insurance options, all paid for by the government.

Government workers have more paid time off. They get 13 days of sick leave a year, that accrue indefinitely, plus earn 13 vacation days when they start and this rises 26 vacation days or 39 days off in total PLUS public holidays.

And the benefits don’t stop at retirement. Those hired after Jan. 1, 1984 can participate in the three-tiered Federal Retirement System.

And a growing number of government earn more than in the private sector according to the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Economist:  
Government average: $89,441
.   Nationwide average: $80,900

Microbiologist: 
Government average: $80,798.  
Nationwide average: $63,360

Architect
:  Government average: $80,777.  
Nationwide average: $68,560

Accountant:  
Government average: $74,907.  
Nationwide average: $58,020

Librarian
: Government average: $74,630.  
Nationwide average: $49,110

Nurse:  
Government average: $60,935.  
Nationwide average: $56,880

Medical Technician:  
Government average: $35,526.  
Nationwide average: $33,170

This spiral grows via government inefficiency and non productivity continually encourages bigger business which intensifies the apparent need for even more government.

Finally big government and big business get into bed together… the FDA and big pharma.  The EPA and the oil industry.  The SEC and big banks, etc.

We hope that America’s angry voters have sent a message to government… yet even this is not dependable.

Fortunately there is a sure fire way to prosper and enhance freedom, fun and adventure despite even the harshest of big business, big government struggles.

The bigger businesses become, the more crumbs they leave behind… the more opportunity they provide for micro businesses to fill in the niches.  Ditto for big government.  Take the delivery and mail address services… UPS and Fedex,  Kinko (Now Fedex), Regus, Mailbox and businesses like that… all grew because the post office was so customer unfriendly and inefficient.

Your own micro business can give you a way to earn income anywhere in the world and can (should be) fun as well.

Everyday we all must bet on how our economic future will unfold. The great part is that come what may we can be prepared to gain from whatever happens if we develop our own way to serve and earn.

Gary

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Read about  Government versus private sector jobs

Read More on: GlaxoSmithKline Agrees to Pay $750 Million to Settle Manufacturing Complaints

Read more about Halliburton and BP Knew of Cement Flaws Before Spill, Panel Says

Overseas Jobs


Overseas jobs create opportunity.

Technology is at it again… creating problems… then offering solutions.

Technology has formed a global economy that eradicated many Western jobs… just as the Western population ages the most.

For example an article in the Economist, “The Future of Europe Staring into the Abyss”:

Between 2005 and 2030 the working-age population of the European Union will shrink by 20m, and the number of those over 65 will increase by 40m. Thanks to the focus on crumbling public finances, that demographic time-bomb is now a common part of European public debate. Governments in places like Britain or the Netherlands have been able to propose paying pensions at 67 or even 70, without angry protests.

So many of my messages look at problems faced by Baby Boomers and those thinking about retirement ahead.

However how about the Western youth? Without their gainful employment to finance Social Security programs for the retired… there will be no money to pay for retirement.

An article in Business Week entitled “The Lost Generation” highlighted this problem when it said.

The continuing job crisis is hitting young people especially hard—damaging both their future and the economy

Bright, eager—and unwanted. While unemployment is ravaging just about every part of the global workforce, the most enduring harm is being done to young people who can’t grab onto the first rung of the career ladder.

Affected are a range of young people, from high school dropouts, to college grads, to newly minted lawyers and MBAs across the developed world from Britain to Japan. One indication: In the U.S., the unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds has climbed to more than 18%, from 13% a year ago.

For people just starting their careers, the damage may be deep and long-lasting, potentially creating a kind of “lost generation.” Studies suggest that an extended period of youthful joblessness can significantly depress lifetime income as people get stuck in jobs that are beneath their capabilities, or come to be seen by employers as damaged goods.

Equally important, employers are likely to suffer from the scarring of a generation. The freshness and vitality young people bring to the workplace is missing. Tomorrow’s would-be star employees are on the sidelines, deprived of experience and losing motivation. In Japan, which has been down this road since the early 1990s, workers who started their careers a decade or more ago and are now in their 30s account for 6 in 10 reported cases of depression, stress, and work-related mental disabilities, according to the Japan Productivity Center for Socio-Economic Development.

Whats should society do?

Our son, Jake, gave us a clue when he wrote:

Dad your article “Funky Micro Business Ideas Internet Support” reminded me to share this thought:

Perhaps many readers will have young people in their lives who like those in Britain face a very bleak employment future at home.

We now have a crisis in youth employment in this country but as my dad says “the sun is always shining somewhere in the world” and the Guardian last week did the following piece on the issue. Perhaps an interesting thought for many readers:

That article is ‘Graduates look overseas as jobs dry up’ and it says:

“With 70 applicants for every UK graduate job, could applying abroad be the answer? From Brussels to Beijing, meet the enterprising university leavers finding work overseas.

“For beleaguered graduate job hunters, the news just seems to get worse and worse. Figures released last week by the Higher Education Statistics Agency showed that about 10% of 2009 graduates failed to find work during the past year. As if that weren’t bad enough, the Association of Graduate Recruiters (AGR) this week released the findings of its biannual survey, showing an average of around 70 applications for every graduate job, with employers expecting to see a further 6.9% drop in vacancies this year – a forecast nearly four times worse than the AGR’s own predictions just six months ago.

“The AGR’s chief executive, Carl Gilleard, points out that the depressing forecast reflects a fragmented graduate jobs market in which sectors such as finance are now showing high levels of growth, while others, including law and engineering, remain in the doldrums. “The important thing for graduates is to keep their ears to the ground,” he says. “A snapshot survey of our members reveals that 30% haven’t yet filled their vacancies.”

“Yet for those prepared to look farther afield, there may be a glimmer of hope from the increasing numbers of UK graduates who are successfully finding work overseas.

“Nannette Ripmeester, a Rotterdam-based international careers expert who has worked in 17 countries, says the jobs outlook is not as bleak everywhere. “Within the European Union, the UK and Spanish jobs markets have been worst-hit, but other countries such as the Netherlands, and also newer member states like Poland, have not suffered as much,” she says. “Outside Europe, think of Asia and places like China and Singapore, where jobs markets are considerably better.” Jake.

Life is change.  Technology has accelerated change as it diminishes the concepts of time and space.  Those… young and old…  who adapt and participate in this global view can find opportunity in the global economy and the fact that the sun always shines somewhere.

Gary

Learn to speak Spanish in four days.

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Read the lost generation

The Future of Europe

Graduates look overseas as jobs dry up

Economic Cycle Review


It is time for an economic cycle review.

Over the weekend I truly enjoyed speaking at Jyske Global Asset Manager’s seminar in Laguna Beach, California.

During that seminar I shared five reasons why we should expect a pull back in the US stock market now.

One reason is seasonality which we reviewed at this site in April.

Another reason is that we are seeing a shift in the economic cycle.

market-value

There are three phases in the economic cycle.

Phase I Recession

Lower Inflation Expected
Interest Rates Come Down
Depressed Demand
Rising Unemployment
PE Multiples Contract

This phase which we saw in 2007 and 2008 is an ideal time to invest in bonds.

Phase II Recovery

Inverted Yield Curve
Rush for Liquidity
Authorities Relax Money Supply
High Unemployment
High Level of Uncertainty

This phase which began in 2009 is an ideal time to invest in shares.

Phase III Boom

Rising Inflation
Short Rates Pushed Up
Bond Yields Rise
Falling Unemployment
PE Multiples Expand

There are many signs that the economy is transitioning into this phase and this phase is an ideal time to invest in cash and short term investments.

However… when in the boom phase we need to take some extra steps because cash during inflationary times can be a really lousy idea.

Warren Buffet mentioned this problem when he said: Clinging to cash equivalents or long-term government bonds at present yields is almost certainly a terrible policy if continued for long. Holders of these instruments, of course, have felt increasingly comfortable – in fact, almost smug – in following this policy as financial turmoil has mounted. They regard their judgment confirmed when they hear commentators proclaim “cash is king,” even though that wonderful cash is earning close to nothing and will surely find its purchasing power eroded over time.

We’ll look at the other three reasons why we can expect equities to falter now… plus ideas on cash substitute investments in upcoming messages.

See a Galapagos special here.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

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Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

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The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

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This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

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Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Small Green Internet Business


Here is why a small green internet business can be so valuable.

Imagine having a hobby… that you enjoyed… was a lot of fun and that always paid for your cost of living and lifestyle.

Wouldn’t that be worth pursuing?

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Does this look like work?  Delegates on a our Ecuador tour.  In a moment we’ll see a link to Ecuador business ideas.

Having your own small business for extra income is more important now than ever before.

Over the past decade, this site has regularly recommended that one of the best ways to create wealth is…  having your own business.

This idea makes sense!  Government spending almost assures inflation.  Inflation hurts those on fixed incomes, new entrants in the job market and salaried workers the most.   Business however always adjust for inflation…. so your own business protects your spending power.

The excerpts below from a March 2010 Atlantic Magazine article “How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America” By Don Peck shows the concern:  The Great Recession may be over, but this era of high joblessness is probably just beginning. Before it ends, it will likely change the life course and character of a generation of young adults. It will leave an indelible imprint on many blue-collar men. It could cripple marriage as an institution in many communities. It may already be plunging many inner cities into a despair not seen for decades. Ultimately, it is likely to warp our politics, our culture, and the character of our society for years to come.

How should we characterize the economic period we have now entered? After nearly two brutal years, the Great Recession appears to be over, at least technically. Yet a return to normalcy seems far off. By some measures, each recession since the 1980s has retreated more slowly than the one before it. In one sense, we never fully recovered from the last one, in 2001: the share of the civilian population with a job never returned to its previous peak before this downturn began, and incomes were stagnant throughout the decade. Still, the weakness that lingered through much of the 2000s shouldn’t be confused with the trauma of the past two years, a trauma that will remain heavy for quite some time.

The unemployment rate hit 10 percent in October, and there are good reasons to believe that by 2011, 2012, even 2014, it will have declined only a little. Late last year, the average duration of unemployment surpassed six months, the first time that has happened since 1948, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking that number. As of this writing, for every open job in the U.S., six people are actively looking for work.

All of these figures understate the magnitude of the jobs crisis. The broadest measure of unemployment and underemployment (which includes people who want to work but have stopped actively searching for a job, along with those who want full-time jobs but can find only part-time work) reached 17.4 percent in October, which appears to be the highest figure since the 1930s. And for large swaths of society—young adults, men, minorities—that figure was much higher (among teenagers, for instance, even the narrowest measure of unemployment stood at roughly 27 percent). One recent survey showed that 44 percent of families had experienced a job loss, a reduction in hours, or a pay cut in the past year.

The Long Road Ahead

Since last spring, when fears of economic apocalypse began to ebb, we’ve been treated to an alphabet soup of predictions about the recovery. Various economists have suggested that it might look like a V (a strong and rapid rebound), a U (slower), a W (reflecting the possibility of a double-dip recession), or, most alarming, an L (no recovery in demand or jobs for years: a lost decade). This summer, with all the good letters already taken, the former labor secretary Robert Reich wrote on his blog that the recovery might actually be shaped like an X (the imagery is elusive, but Reich’s argument was that there can be no recovery until we find an entirely new model of economic growth).

Historically, financial crises have spawned long periods of economic malaise, and this crisis, so far, has been true to form. Despite the bailouts, many banks’ balance sheets remain weak; more than 140 banks failed in 2009. As a result, banks have kept lending standards tight, frustrating the efforts of small businesses—which have accounted for almost half of all job losses—to invest or rehire. Exports seem unlikely to provide much of a boost; although China, India, Brazil, and some other emerging markets are growing quickly again, Europe and Japan—both major markets for U.S. exports—remain weak. And in any case, exports make up only about 13 percent of total U.S. production; even if they were to grow quickly, the impact would be muted.

Most recessions end when people start spending again, but for the foreseeable future, U.S. consumer demand is unlikely to propel strong economic growth. As of November, one in seven mortgages was delinquent, up from one in 10 a year earlier. As many as one in four houses may now be underwater, and the ratio of household debt to GDP, about 65 percent in the mid-1990s, is roughly 100 percent today. It is not merely animal spirits that are keeping people from spending freely (though those spirits are dour). Heavy debt and large losses of wealth have forced spending onto a lower path.

So what is the engine that will pull the U.S. back onto a strong growth path? That turns out to be a hard question. The New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, who fears a lost decade, said in a lecture at the London School of Economics last summer that he has “no idea” how the economy could quickly return to strong, sustainable growth. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, told the Associated Press last fall, “I think the unemployment rate will be permanently higher, or at least higher for the foreseeable future. The collective psyche has changed as a result of what we’ve been through. And we’re going to be different as a result.”

One big reason that the economy stabilized last summer and fall is the stimulus; the Congressional Budget Office estimates that without the stimulus, growth would have been anywhere from

The economy now sits in a hole more than 10 million jobs deep—that’s the number required to get back to 5 percent unemployment, the rate we had before the recession started, and one that’s been more or less typical for a generation. And because the population is growing and new people are continually coming onto the job market, we need to produce roughly 1.5 million new jobs a year—about 125,000 a month—just to keep from sinking deeper.

And even within industries that are likely to bounce back smartly, temporary layoffs have generally given way to the permanent elimination of jobs, the result of workplace restructuring. Manufacturing jobs have of course been moving overseas for decades, and still are; but recently, the outsourcing of much white-collar work has become possible. Companies that have cut domestic payrolls to the bone in this recession may choose to rebuild them in Shanghai, Guangzhou, or Bangalore, accelerating off-shoring decisions that otherwise might have occurred over many years.

New jobs will come open in the U.S. But many will have different skill requirements than the old ones. “In a sense,” says Gary Burtless, a labor economist at the Brookings Institution, “every time someone’s laid off now, they need to start all over. They don’t even know what industry they’ll be in next.”

“We haven’t seen anything like this before: a really deep recession combined with a really extended period, maybe as much as eight years, all told, of highly elevated unemployment,” Shierholz told me. “We’re about to see a big national experiment on stress.”

Those of us who start and own small businesses do not have to join the stress.

The changes that brought on the recession and unemployment also created opportunity for those who embrace change and innovate.

The Atlantic article also said:  Ultimately, innovation is what allows an economy to grow quickly and create new jobs as old ones obsolesce and disappear. Typically, one salutary side effect of recessions is that they eventually spur booms in innovation. Some laid-off employees become entrepreneurs, working on ideas that have been ignored by corporate bureaucracies, while sclerotic firms in declining industries fail, making way for nimbler enterprises.

In with the new… small… fun… innovative businesses. Out with the old… big…complicated, stressful work.

Here are three tips for success with your own small business.

Tip #1:  Live beneath your means. Start small… build upon existing skills and grow in relationship to your situation.

Small beginnings are nature’s way. Most businesses start with a learning curve. During the beginning and in the initial learning period, it is essential to remain small as you err. Once lessons have been learned, the business can grow using business evolutionary cycle.

The small business evolutionary cycle is:

#1: Get an idea

#2; The idea leads to enthusiasm.

#3: The enthusiasm leads to education.

#4: The education leads to action.

#5: The action leads to profit or loss but also more ideas.

The cycle repeats and this is the way that businesses should grow.

This is why one of the favorite workshops I teach is “Early Wealth” for kids. This is sometimes conducted before other adult courses and sometimes presented to groups of school kids.

They love it and soak up the information on how to attain wealth.

The course begins by showing a dollar bill and a candy bar and letting the kids choose which they would prefer. Some choose the candy, others cash. But twenty-six more dollar bills are taped to the first and they then unfold. Now the kids see twenty-seven dollar bills dangling before them and they are asked to choose again. Kids are not stupid. They take the twenty-seven bucks and in the process learn the power of compounded interest.

If they take a dollar and put it in the bank, even at a low interest rate it grows to twenty-seven by the time they reach age 65.

Many of the parents at this workshop tell me they wish they had had this when they were younger as I point out the importance of starting early.

This chart shows that a person who saves $4,000 a year for ten years ($40,000 total) from age 19 to 29 and leaves it earning 8% per annum compounded will have $1,097,285 at age 65. This is compared to a person who saves $4,000 a year ever year from age 29 to 65 ($148,000 total) has only $877,264.

Then we have the banker’s race. Two children are selected, one a large boy, the other a small girl. They race as they drag a fifty pound bucket of mud. Each selects five bankers. The difference is the girl has been good and saved money so her five bankers help her pull the bucket. The boy, who has been bad and borrowed money has to drag the bucket and his five bankers. You can guess who wins the race.

These lessons  are based on the expectation that a social code will be adhered to… that rewards capital.  Those who are frugal, save and invest will enjoy greater financial security then those who just spend.

Tip #2: Expect inflation. Save and invest in a business…. your own or someone’s else’s… not cash.

Government’s globally now and throughout history have tended to cheat on this economic honor system… as they are doing so badly now.

For example, the US government… already deeply and growing deeper in debt has initiated a new program to help American borrowers who have been clobbered by falling home prices, the government has created a new plan to help those who own property that is worth less than its mortgage.   The plan has several strategies including requiring mortgage servicers to consider cutting a loan’s principal if it is up to 15% more than the home is worth.

Because additional debt is most likely to deteriorate the value of the dollar, those who lived above their means… or speculated on real estate or bought real estate they really could not afford are being rewarded.  So too are banks who did not vet their borrowers carefully enough.

The government’s explanation for this additional spending is that the cost to taxpayers is less than the cost of not doing something.

Yet the simple reality is that these rewards are at the expense of those who have saves and lives beneath their means. Those who will be punished most are those with fixed incomes and cash.

This is not just a US phenomenon either.  Governments are going deeper into debt everywhere… spending money that does not create goods.

Warren Buffet recently commented on this when he purchased a railroad for $27 billion.  He said: Cash is always a bad investment. When people said cash is king a year ago, that [was] crazy. Cash wasn’t producing anything, and it was sure to go down in value over time. And then you always want to be sure you have enough. It’s like—like oxygen—you want to be sure it’s around, you know. But you don’t need to have excessive amounts of it around. We will always have enough cash around. But anytime we have surplus cash around, I’m unhappy. And we found a chance in the last year, thereabouts, to deploy [it]. We came in with something over $40 billion in cash. We have got about $20 billion now, and we’ve had some earnings. So, we’ve put a lot of cash to work. And I like that. I’d much rather own a good business than have cash. . . . [BNSF] is not a bargain, but it’s a good asset for Berkshire to own over the next century.

You can say all assets are a hedge against the dollar. All you know is that the dollar is going to be worth less 10, 20, 30 years from now. I say “worth less.” Not worthless. You want to watch that. [It’s] true of almost every currency I can think of.  The question is how much it depreciates in value. But cash is not a place. We’ll print more of [it] in relation to the amount of goods that are moving. If we dropped a million dollars of cash into every household in the United States today, everybody would feel very good except the people that invested in things that were denominated in dollars.”

Yet most of us don’t have an extra $27 billion lying around.  In fact many of us may not have enough cash to convert into inflation fighting assets.  Instead we need more income.

These facts alter the way we must live and invest… with a shift towards holding inflation fighting assets… like a small business.

Fortunately science and technology has truly set us free.  An internet business can help us earn income.

Golden Income.

Plus isn’t the goal here to enjoy life… without living beyond our means?

An internet business can help us turn our passion into profit and earn income in enjoyable ways.

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For example I love to write.  My internet business allows me to do so in places I want to be.

Here I am with our hound working at our Florida home.

Technology has destroyed the limitations imposed by time and space and an internet business gives us freedom to earn and be mobile. We no longer have to be stuck in one place.

I can sit in my office in North Carolina and work.

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with this view. (You can see that my hound dog wants me to hurry up and get out on the mountain!)

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Or hike into our Blue Ridge forest and work.

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You can see that now she is happier!

Or visit Ecuador’s beaches and work.

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Tip #3: Look for and solve problems that are important to you.

For example if environmental problems are important to you,  think about sustainable farming.   America only has two million farmers.  Their average age is 55.  Sustainable farming needs small-scale, local, organic methods rather than petroleum-based machines and fertilizers.

There is a dramatic demand for more small sustainable… small  modern farmers… small business people who become skilled in heirloom produce and new ways of marketing.

This is one reasons why I have been posting messages about EnviroSafety Bio Wash and farming.

This is a good idea for Smalltown USA which is one reason why we now have a Florida orange grove business and a North Carolina sustainable forestry business. We are to test bio wash on citrus growing and fighting greening.  See more here at Bio Oranges

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This also offers a great Ecuador organic farming idea. See more here.

Join Merri and me and our webmaster, David Cross, and Jyske investment adviser, Peter Laub, to learn more about business, investing, health and Ecuador this June at our Quantum Wealth  seminar where we share ways to invest, do business and live that protect wealth as they bring joy, satisfaction and better health.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

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There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

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However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

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Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

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The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

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Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

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Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

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iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

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Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

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The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

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This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

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Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Read the entire Atlantic Magazine article How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America here.

Self Publishing Gift


A self publishing delegate sent the note below… a gift to me because I love seeing people have success… especially when they have  attended one of our courses.

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Spring on our farm.  As we adjust to the seasons, we must adjust to changing economies and times.

See how Todd Smith’s note below can be a gift to you as well.

In October 2005, I attended Gary’s “Self-Fulfilled” course on how to become a self-publisher.  At the time, I was a successful wedding photographer in Richmond, VA, and while I enjoyed my work, it didn’t completely fulfill my creative desires.  There are things you never get to express when you are working for clients.

I wanted to create a photography job that would fulfill me as an artist and give me the potential to scale my income instead of working by the job as a wedding photographer.  In the end, there are only 52 weekends a year, which means there was a cap on my wedding income potential.

Gary’s course was packed with knowledge and practical tips of how he has created and run a self-publishing business for decades.  I loved his simple description of self-publishing:  “to inform.”  He encourages his students to pick something that they are passionate about and to make that the basis of their businesses.

I love nature photography, flowers, landscapes, travel etc.  I also love spirituality, and I was a monk for a number of years.  Combining these two loves I started a free email newsletter two years ago to share new photos and to share my own uplifting observations or experiences every week.

People tell me that they look forward to my email every Thursday… some call it therapy, others pray that it will never stop.  Everyone agrees that it is a highlight of the week.

“Beautiful newsletter!  Soft and lovely way to start the day.”  Jean Byrd Frederick, MD

“You are such an artist Todd, your words paint a picture!” Bernie Koftinoff, Kelowna, BC

This newsletter has become the basis of my business.  It accomplishes two things:  1. It gets me out taking new pictures every week and hones my writing skills.  2. It keeps my work in front of people who like seeing it.

When I first published a wall calendar two years ago I sent a message to my list of 120 readers and I sold 150 calendars! If you take care of your readers they will pay you for your efforts.  This year I printed 1000 calendars and have already sold 53 in just one week in the middle of August without strongly promoting it.

As I continue to build my business through search engine optimization and promotions to other lists my base of loyal customers is growing.  Gary detailed in his course everything I needed to know to make this happen.  From time to time I look back at the huge manual he gave us as part of the course material and I discover another creative way to improve my marketing.

Publishing is a very old profession, and it is all about marketing.  The biggest piece of advice I learned from Gary’s course was “write the marketing piece before you create the product.”  Gems like this have kept my business on target in early growth phase which devours many startups.  Thanks to Gary I’m not completely flying by the seat of my pants!

I love the way Gary uses publishing to create a lifestyle that is fulfilling to him.  I use it in the exact same way.  While there is a lot to do in the startup phase, everything I do is cumulative, allowing me more and more free time to do what I love:  take photographs and enjoy a pace of life which is not breakneck.  When I was on the course four years ago, I told him I wanted to step out of the rat race.  By becoming a self-publisher I have done just that.  I can speed up or slow down my business as I like and I can choose what I want to publish.  It is a business that allows maximum freedom in life.

If you like working for yourself on your own hours and are considering becoming a self-fulfilled publisher like me, I highly encourage you to take Gary’s course and learn from someone who has been doing this successfully for years.  He certainly gave me a boost, and I still use many of things I learned four years ago in my business today.  Todd

This is nice to read… a benefit to me.  There is a benefit for you as well.

As a special promotion to my readers Todd is offering a 10% discount on his 2010 photography calendar.

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You can purchase Todd’s calendars here.  Merri and I already have received ours that we ordered for friends on our list.

Just add the calendar to your cart and use the promotion code, “garyscott” to receive a 10% discount when you check out.

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Summer on the farm.  When opportunity is hot we must seize it!

Knowing how to earn through your own internet business grows in importance as unemployment grows and more importantly as types of employment shifts.

Excerpts from the September 5, 2009 Wall Street Journal article, “Job Losses Weigh on Recovery Layoffs Slow but Unemployment Rate Hits 9.7%, Highest Since 1983” by Sudeep Reddy shows that getting a job is a diminishing option.

Here is the excerpt: Nonfarm payrolls fell by 216,000 jobs in the month, fewer than the 276,000 lost in July, the Labor Department said Friday. The economy has shed 6.9 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. The data reinforced expectations that employers will begin adding jobs by early next year, though the pace of job creation remains uncertain.

The latest figures are consistent with an economy pulling out of the deepest downturn since the Great Depression. But rising unemployment portends persistent weakness in consumer confidence, income and spending, even as manufacturers start bouncing back and stocks revive. The construction and manufacturing sectors together accounted for more than half of August’s job losses. Losses in retail and business services narrowed. The biggest gains came in health care.

The rise in unemployment, after dipping to 9.4% in July, came as more Americans returned to the work force. Teenage unemployment hit 25.5%, the highest since the government began keeping records in 1948. Most economists expect the rate to top 10% in coming months and stay over 9% through 2010.

internet-business-idea

Autumn on the farm. When times change, we must embrace change.

Even more important is the fact that when the economy recovers the types of jobs available will have changed.  Older workers and graduating students may especially be affected.

Excerpts from a September 8, 2009 article “Job change takes on a new meaning”
in the Chicago Daily Herald show how greater skills will be required. The excerpt says: If this recession has taught us anything it’s the times they are a changin’, especially when it comes to business and the labor market. And, we must coach not only unemployed workers, but also high school and college students to recognize that and look to where the jobs will be in the future when considering a career.

The reason is pretty clear. Some bellwether corporations have gone bankrupt, entire industries are rethinking and reshaping their business plan; several traditional can’t miss careers are no longer sure things.

The American work force was sent reeling by corporate cutbacks. The jobless rate now flirts with 10 percent, and the economy has shed nearly 7 million jobs since the start of the recession.

Those numbers reflect laid off workers, but they also affect graduating students unable to start their career because no jobs are available.

And, that’s why workers – current and future – need to think change.

Energy jobs, especially at companies stepping up environmental initiatives, are expected to be an area of growth.

Do you have an interest in global business? It’s more important now than ever to ask two key questions when investigating a career choice: Where will the jobs be in the future? And what do I have to do to get one?

internet-business-idea

Winter on our farm. When times are harsh, we must bundle up, hibernate or move to warmer spots… like Ecuador (see below).

Merri and I love seeing people succeed.  We can all have success when we embrace change!

Please send your stories of job change success and see below how we can help you succeed.

Gary

The greatest asset of all is the ability to labor at what you love wherever you live. This brings everlasting wealth.

This is why we are providing a special three for one offer with our  course Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business

This course can help you create your own internet business.

Our emailed course “Tangled Webs We Weave – How to Have Your Own Web Based Business” is a continuing educational program.  You receive the first 28 lessons when you enroll and a new lesson every week or two.

This course teaches how to create a web based business and is developed from the ongoing experiences that we have from our successful and profitable internet business.

This course is well worth the enrollment fee of $299… but currently you also receive two additional courses FREE.

The other two courses are #1: International Business Made EZ, and #2: Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.

These two courses have sold for $398 and thousands have paid this price. We add them to your course, at no added cost, as I believe they will help you develop a better business in these crucial times..

Even Better Get All three Courses Free

To make this offer even more compelling,  I am giving everyone who enrolls in our North Carolina or Ecuador International Business & Investing seminar in October or November all three courses, “Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business Course,”  “Self Fulfilled- How to be a Self Publisher” and “International Business Made EZ” free.

internet-business-idea We always conduct our autumn North Carolina course on the first weekend of October… the best time to enjoy  the leaf change.

Join us with Jyske Bank and my webmaster David Cross in West Jefferson North Carolina. Learn more about global investing, & how to have an international business at the seminar.

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina with our webmaster  David Cross & Thomas Fischer of JGAM

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You’ll see views like this on your way to West Jefferson for the October seminar.

Or head south to Ecuador!

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October 16-18 Ecuador Southern coastal tour

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Oct. 25-26 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

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In Cotacachi the weather is always Spring like.  Here is the village plaza near our hotel Meson de las Flores.

Join us with Peter Laub of Jyske Global Asset Management in Ecuador. Learn more about global investing, how to have an international business at the seminar.

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador Seminar

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Let our friendly staff at Meson de las Flores serve you.

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

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This shorts weather photo was taken from our beach penthouse in February.

Join us in the mountains and at the sea.  Attend more than one seminar and tour and save even more plus get the three emailed courses free.

Attend any two Ecuador seminar or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799

Read the entire articles: “Job Losses Weigh on Recovery
Layoffs Slow but Unemployment Rate Hits 9.7%, Highest Since 1983″

Job change takes on a new meaning