Tag Archive | "trailing stops"

What Can You Do About Pensions?


What do you do if your pension goes stupid?

share chart

Valeant shares have fallen in the last year from over $250 to $26. Valeant chart from www.finance.yahoo.com (1)

Drug prices have soared in the last couple of years as Valeant drove up the prices for their heart medications and was a role model that taught other drug firms how to raise prices.

Valeant for example bought the rights to a pair of life-saving heart drugs.  The same day, they increased prices by 525% and 212%.  Neither of the drugs, was improved nor were there any investments in lab work, testing or anything good for patients. The only change was the drugs’ ownership to Valeant and Valeant’s management feeling that their only duty was to maximize the shareholder’s value.

Hats off the Valeant’s management for such a  good job, reducing shareholder’s value by about 90% in less than a year!

I would be seeing nothing but good from this.  Value would be a role model in how not to think short term and the fine line between creating profit and extortion.

Sadly there is a negative to this because the Valeant losses could hurt many retirement plans.

Workers in over 50 companies from such as Walt Disney Company offered the Sequoia Fund, Inc. as an investment option in their employee savings plans.  The Sequoia Fund was purportedly an exclusive manager with historical ties to Warren Buffett, closed to new investors for years.  Employees of these companies supposedly had a unique privilege to be able to invest their pensions in Sequoia.

Regretfully Sequoia’s largest holding, at one point last year more than 30% of its portfolio, was Valeant Pharmaceuticals.

The fund has underperformed 98% of its peers so far this year and hurt some retirement plans  at companies such as Disney, where Sequoia was among the most widely held investment.

What is the Lesson?

There are several lessons we can learn from this tragedy.   The first is that short term investment thinking is dangerous.  Valeant may be able to force these high prices on people. Their life depended upon it.  You can also make people do things they do not want when you put a gun to their head.  Neither form of inducement is correct. Both are coercion and when anyone pushes helpless people too much, for too long, there will be a pay back.

Keep these facts in mind when researching where to invest.  Companies need to provide a fair service as well as make a profit.

Also we should beware of hotshots and the Golden Boy Syndrome. Having been in the business almost 50 years now, I  have seen so many kings knocked off their throne.  Any time anyone acts as if they are doing you a favor taking your money… BEWARE!

What do you do?

We need to be masters of our own finances and the best way to do this is by continually looking for value.

This will often make you seem like a contrarian because the herd mentality creates and/or destroys value.  You may seem to be acting just the opposite of everyone else, but we are not.  Instead of following the money we are simply following the value.

For example we recently reported that gold has triggered a Re-Entry Rule at Trade Stops.com, one of the advisors we track.

share chart

Gold chart from www.finance.yahoo.com (2)

Gold and silver almost always have a small place in our portfolio as insurance, but how much of our money should we allocate to gold and silver as speculations?

Our friend Richard Smith, a PhD in mathematics, is the founder of Tradestops.com and he created a program to help us match our risk tolerance with our investment risk profile.

When our risk tolerance is out of line with the risk profile of our investments, we are more likely to make poor emotional rather than wise investmen decisions.

Richard sent me this note:

Today, what I’d like to bring to your attention, is how you can use the tools available in TradeStops to make some high level decisions about how to structure your own portfolio.

One nice benefit that we enjoy as investors today is the rich universe of ETFs that we have access to. We can use these ETFs to help us make some decisions around our personal asset allocation. GLD, for example, is the ETF that tracks the cash price of gold bullion.

There are lots of websites out there that offer tools to help you easily find ETFs of interest. One that I use regularly is ETF Replay. The Summary section of ETF Replay is a great place to browse around and find ETFs that represent asset classes that you might be interested in.

Browsing through the Summary pages of ETF Replay, I found the following ETFs of interest to me (note that when deciding between similar ETFs I tend to favor those with the highest Net Assets):

VTI: Vanguard Total U.S. Stock Market – (I opted for an ETF to capture the whole US stock market.)
IEF: iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr Treasury (7-8yr)
VEU: Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
VWO: Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets
GLD: SPDR Gold Shares
USO: United States Oil Fund
LQD: iShares iBoxx Invest Grade Bond (7-8yr)
SHM: SPDR Short-Term Municipal Bond (2-3yr)
IYR: iShares Dow Jones Real Estate REIT
GDX: Market Vectors Gold Miners Equity Index

The above list is by no means exhaustive. It’s just a list of possible investment categories that captured my interest (and that had sizable net assets).

Now I’m going to build a Watch Only portfolio of the above ETFs (starting with 1 share each) with $100,000 in cash and then run that through my Risk Rebalancer tool to get a rough idea of how $100,000 could be allocated across the above investment classes.

Here’s how it all came out (sorted by VQ% ascending):

Tradestops

Click on image to enlarge.

As you can see in the above, GLD and GDX together add up to just under $10,000 which is about 10% of this $100,000 portfolio. (Note that I’m disregarding the SSI indicators for this exercise.)

Interestingly, this is a VERY low volatility portfolio overall, with 88% of the assets in low volatility investments.

Tradestops

Now I didn’t go through this exercise because I think that you should allocate your assets as I have above. It’s just an example. I want you to go through this exercise yourself, so that you start to build your own position in gold and gold miners in a pre-meditated way.

Given your portfolio size and your asset class preferences, approximately how much should you be looking to invest in gold and the gold miners?

Think about it. Play around with some numbers in TradeStops using some ETFs as proxies for asset classes. The absolute worst thing you could do would be to buy more gold or gold stocks than you are comfortable buying. If you do that, you will very likely get stuck in a losing position (if the rally peters out) or take your profits too soon (if this is indeed the beginning of a new bull market).

You need more than just hope. You need a plan … and you need to stick to your plan. That, more than anything, is what will ultimately determine your success.

Richard M. Smith, PhD
CEO, TradeSmith
Founder, TradeStops.com

Richard’s advice above makes good sense and I recommend that if you are an investor,  subscribe to the professional version of Tradestops. Get full details here.

Gary

(1)  finance.yahoo.com – VRX

(2)  finance.yahoo.com – GLD

Why Leverage Silver ETFs

Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less?

I first spotted an opportunity in 1986.   Two short term distortions (in the price of silver and the strength of the British pound) created potential for huge profits.  I wrote in a report (called the “Silver Dip”) that told how to borrow British pounds to speculate in silver and earn over $50,000 profit.  That’s the headline I used then in 1986, “Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less”.

The report showed how to take borrow overpriced British pounds and invest the loan in under priced silver.   $250 was required to set up the loan.  No other cash was needed to borrow the pounds.

Readers who followed the report made $46,299 on the no cash investment in only one year

Then in 2015 I spotted the same distortion again.  The British pound was overvalued.  Silver was undervalued. 

I quickly issued a report… the “Silver Dip 2015” that looked at how similar conditions to 1986 had fallen into place.  The price of silver had reached a six year low.  The British pound strength was rising.  The dollar per pound rate was $1.55 per pound, exactly the same as in 1986 and the silver/gold ratio rose over 80 just as in 1986.

That report revealed the iShares Silver Trust, a silver ETF  and during the year after issuing this report, the share price rose from $13.57 per share to $19.60 in 2015.

The rise in the silver price created a nice profit.   The currency and leverage tactics within the strategy turned the nice profit into a very nice profit.

A $10,000 (6,451 British pounds) loan purchased 736 shares at $13.57.  In 2015 the shares rose to $19.60 and were worth $14,425 (up 44.25%).

Those profits were spectacular by any stretch of the imagination but turned out even better because the profits above excluded the forex profit.

In 2015-2016 , the British pound dropped almost exactly as it did 30 years ago!  The British pound fell from $1.55 per pound to $1.33 per pound.

At $1.33 per pound, the 6,451 pound loan only required $8,575 to pay back the loan.  This created an extra $1,425 forex profit.

When the opportunity appeared again last year, I updated the report to  “Silver Dip 2018”.

The 2018 report showed how the opportunity for this speculation was even better than it was in 2015.

Yet the profits have not yet arrived.  This allows me to make an amazing no-risk guaranteed offer to you.

Silver Dip 2019 includes profit calculations for 2019 and I offer you the report “Silver Dip 2019” with a year long guarantee.

“If the profits recommended in the report don’t arrive by the end of the year, I’ll give you a complete and full refund”.

That’s right if the tactic described in Silver Dip 2019 do not hit their target, you don’t have to pay a thing for the report.

Investing in silver ETFs leveraged with margin loans may create extraordinary profits in 2019.

The “Silver Dip 2019”  shows how to easily make an ideal speculation for almost any amount.   The report shows when and how to get margin loans in dollars, British pound, Japanese yen or euro.

In fact you learn how to borrow in 23 different currencies, even Russian rubles, so you can choose the weakest currency with the lowest interest rates.

Low Interest Loans

Interest on the loan won’t eat up profits.  The “Silver Dip 2019” shows how to borrow many currencies right now for less than 2%.

The Silver Dip is only exercised when conditions are absolutely ideal.  Value investors never push this rule.  Investment and speculative markets are full of rumor, conjecture (a lot of it false) and hidden agendas.  The Silver Dip relies instead on a really simple theory… that the price of gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s price should maintain a parity with gold.  When that parity is out of balance (as it has been since August 2018) silver’s price is ready to explode.

The “Silver Dip 2019” explains how to speculate in silver ETFs plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in silver if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment:  who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons why conditions are excellent for better for a Silver Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2019” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2019” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in silver.

Learn how to beware of certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how silver profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of silver’s price with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine its real value.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of silver to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2019  $39.95

The benefit of 50 years experience in watching markets, metals, bonds, interest rates and currencies, I have learned many special pricing situations to watch for.

These special opportunities do not appear every day.  That’s why they are special.

Unless you have seen them come and go, it’s hard to see them coming again.

That is why I was willing to wait for years for silver to be in a special pricing position.

Our courses and reports are about finding good value and they have been helping astute readers find value investments, again and again for 50 years.

The “Silver Dip 2019” report shows a current huge opportunity.  I continuously watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.   Sometimes a rare quirk, such as the currency distortions, low cost loans and low silver price  offer potential for profit, with very little risk of long term loss.

Investors who speculate on these aberrations at the correct time can make fortunes.

The time is now.

Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

We are stalking precious metal opportunity now.

The trap is set. We are waiting…

This opportunity is explained in the report “Silver Dip 2019”.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Here is why there is no risk for you.  The report is 100% guaranteed.

I do not sell book, reports and courses.  I offer benefits.  If  the Silver Dip 2019 does not bring you the benefits you expect, just let me know any time in 2019 and I’ll send you a quick, no questions asked, full refund.

I can’t promise that silver’s price will rise in 2019 but  I can guarantee you’ll be fully satisfied with the report or… you can have your money back in full.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Gary

Important: Trailing Stops Information


Trailing stops can offer value investments extra value protection during volatile economic times.

dow chart

Dow Jones Industrial Year to Date 2016 chart at www.finance.yahoo.com

All of the red and green bars in this chart show that as the market falls, investor sentiment is very uncertain.  We may have profits from the long term but they could be wiped out in a sudden drop.  Trailing Stops protects our investments from rapid drops.

The trailing stop service I work with, Tradestops.com, has two unusual but really smart tips about using trailing stops.  Due to the uncertainty of 2016, I want to share them here with you.

The First Trailing stops tip is to base your stop on value rather than investment price.  TradeStops uses a proprietary algorithm called “Smart Trailing Stops 2.0” (STS 2.0).  STS 2.0 is a step up from the typical trailing stop practice.  The algorithm uses an automatically-detected “Best High Price from the Past” rather than using an entry date and entry price as the initial point from which to trail the stop.

A best high price is a better indicator of value than our investing price because it relies on the dynamics of the market instead of our personal investing activity.   This is a better way to stop from buying high and selling low.  Using a best high, rather than our investment price as the prime calculator, is a huge advance.

This is valuable information!  The fact that the STS 2.0 algorithm stops out a share is a red flag that the stock is not behaving normally as it has recently suffered a relatively severe correction.  This gives us an early warning.  This allows us to maximize profits without leaving a good value platform and if we are holding ETFs, without having to know about or track any of the specific underlying shares!

The Second Trailing Stops tip is never put our stops in the market.

This tip was recently reviewed in the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).

Pi relies on mathematical based information systems that include:

  • Financial news to choose top value markets instead of economic news
  • Monitoring of value manager portfolios
  • Algorithms to create trailing starts & stops
  • Portfolio Analysis to determine leverage potential

The lesson on trailing stops looked at a Trailing Stops tactic provided by Dr. Richard Smith.

dr richard smith

Dr. Richard Smith CEO of Tradesmith.com

Dr. Richard Smith, is the founder and CEO of TradeStops.  Richard earned a PhD in Math and Systems Science, and has applied his education and experience to investing.  He spent a decade researching and developing algorithms and services that give individual investors the tools they need to remain in their personal investing comfort zone and to succeed!

Here is good advice on how to use Trailing Stops that Richard has shared.

Why I Never Put My Stops in the Market by Dr. Richard Smith

We’re all familiar with the Flash Crash of May 6, 2010 when the stock market fell nearly 10% in a matter of minutes and then recovered sharply:

tradestops.com chart

And more recent events like August 21, 2015 when many stocks, like Apple, opened up 10% lower only to recover sharply the same day:

tradestops.com chart

These kinds of widespread volatile intraday moves get a lot of attention from the media, as well they should.  Sharp intraday moves like these are devastating to investors who are trying to protect themselves by putting stop loss orders in the market.  Stops can and do get taken out during these intraday drops.

Professional traders call them “wash and rinse” moves because they hose down and wring out unsuspecting investors and traders.

Richard Smith

That Pi lesson looked at intraday crashes on three more major US traded shares and explained why moves like these are much more prevalent than anyone cares to admit.  Their existence is an affront to the façade of fair and orderly markets.

Dr. Smith ended that note with three wise suggestions: TradeStops is focused on servicing investors looking to ideally buy and hold stocks for a year or more.  What happens between 9:30am and 4pm doesn’t concern us. We’ve got better things to do. We pay attention to where the dust settles by the market close … and we never ever put our stops in the market.

Learn more about Tradestops.com here

Trailing stops provide protection from steep drops in the price of shares we hold.  That protection is even better when we use these two trailing stops tips:

1-Set stops best on best values rather than purchase price

2-Never put those stops in the market.

Gary

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

Multi Currency Investment Risk Balance Thoughts


What can we do to balance risk in our multi currency investing portfolios.

We need to be masters of our own finances and the best way to do this is by continually looking for value.

This will often make you seem like a contrarian because the herd mentality creates and/or destroys value.  You may seem to be acting just the opposite of everyone else, but we are not.  Instead of following the money we are simply following the value.

For example we recently reported that gold has triggered a Re-Entry Rule at Trade Stops.com, one of the advisors we track.

share chart

Gold chart from www.finance.yahoo.com (2)

Gold and silver almost always have a small place in our portfolio as insurance, but how much of our money should we allocate to gold and silver as speculations?

Our friend Richard Smith, a PhD in mathematics, is the founder of Tradestops.com and he created a program to help us match our risk tolerance with our investment risk profile.

When our risk tolerance is out of line with the risk profile of our investments, we are more likely to make poor emotional rather than wise investmen decisions.

Richard sent me this note:

Today, what I’d like to bring to your attention, is how you can use the tools available in TradeStops to make some high level decisions about how to structure your own portfolio.

One nice benefit that we enjoy as investors today is the rich universe of ETFs that we have access to. We can use these ETFs to help us make some decisions around our personal asset allocation. GLD, for example, is the ETF that tracks the cash price of gold bullion.

There are lots of websites out there that offer tools to help you easily find ETFs of interest. One that I use regularly is ETF Replay. The Summary section of ETF Replay is a great place to browse around and find ETFs that represent asset classes that you might be interested in.

Browsing through the Summary pages of ETF Replay, I found the following ETFs of interest to me (note that when deciding between similar ETFs I tend to favor those with the highest Net Assets):

VTI: Vanguard Total U.S. Stock Market – (I opted for an ETF to capture the whole US stock market.)
IEF: iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr Treasury (7-8yr)
VEU: Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
VWO: Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets
GLD: SPDR Gold Shares
USO: United States Oil Fund
LQD: iShares iBoxx Invest Grade Bond (7-8yr)
SHM: SPDR Short-Term Municipal Bond (2-3yr)
IYR: iShares Dow Jones Real Estate REIT
GDX: Market Vectors Gold Miners Equity Index

The above list is by no means exhaustive. It’s just a list of possible investment categories that captured my interest (and that had sizable net assets).

Now I’m going to build a Watch Only portfolio of the above ETFs (starting with 1 share each) with $100,000 in cash and then run that through my Risk Rebalancer tool to get a rough idea of how $100,000 could be allocated across the above investment classes.

Here’s how it all came out (sorted by VQ% ascending):

Tradestops

Click on image to enlarge.

As you can see in the above, GLD and GDX together add up to just under $10,000 which is about 10% of this $100,000 portfolio. (Note that I’m disregarding the SSI indicators for this exercise.)

Interestingly, this is a VERY low volatility portfolio overall, with 88% of the assets in low volatility investments.

Tradestops

Now I didn’t go through this exercise because I think that you should allocate your assets as I have above. It’s just an example. I want you to go through this exercise yourself, so that you start to build your own position in gold and gold miners in a pre-meditated way.

Given your portfolio size and your asset class preferences, approximately how much should you be looking to invest in gold and the gold miners?

Think about it. Play around with some numbers in TradeStops using some ETFs as proxies for asset classes. The absolute worst thing you could do would be to buy more gold or gold stocks than you are comfortable buying. If you do that, you will very likely get stuck in a losing position (if the rally peters out) or take your profits too soon (if this is indeed the beginning of a new bull market).

You need more than just hope. You need a plan … and you need to stick to your plan. That, more than anything, is what will ultimately determine your success.

Richard M. Smith, PhD
CEO, TradeSmith
Founder, TradeStops.com

Richard’s advice above makes good sense and I recommend that if you are an investor,  subscribe to the professional version of Tradestops. Get full details here.

Gary

(1)  finance.yahoo.com – VRX

(2)  finance.yahoo.com – GLD

Why Leverage Silver ETFs

Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less?

I first spotted an opportunity in 1986.   Two short term distortions (in the price of silver and the strength of the British pound) created potential for huge profits.  I wrote in a report (called the “Silver Dip”) that told how to borrow British pounds to speculate in silver and earn over $50,000 profit.  That’s the headline I used then in 1986, “Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less”.

The report showed how to take borrow overpriced British pounds and invest the loan in under priced silver.   $250 was required to set up the loan.  No other cash was needed to borrow the pounds.

Readers who followed the report made $46,299 on the no cash investment in only one year

Then in 2015 I spotted the same distortion again.  The British pound was overvalued.  Silver was undervalued. 

I quickly issued a report… the “Silver Dip 2015” that looked at how similar conditions to 1986 had fallen into place.  The price of silver had reached a six year low.  The British pound strength was rising.  The dollar per pound rate was $1.55 per pound, exactly the same as in 1986 and the silver/gold ratio rose over 80 just as in 1986.

That report revealed the iShares Silver Trust, a silver ETF  and during the year after issuing this report, the share price rose from $13.57 per share to $19.60 in 2015.

The rise in the silver price created a nice profit.   The currency and leverage tactics within the strategy turned the nice profit into a very nice profit.

A $10,000 (6,451 British pounds) loan purchased 736 shares at $13.57.  In 2015 the shares rose to $19.60 and were worth $14,425 (up 44.25%).

Those profits were spectacular by any stretch of the imagination but turned out even better because the profits above excluded the forex profit.

In 2015-2016 , the British pound dropped almost exactly as it did 30 years ago!  The British pound fell from $1.55 per pound to $1.33 per pound.

At $1.33 per pound, the 6,451 pound loan only required $8,575 to pay back the loan.  This created an extra $1,425 forex profit.

When the opportunity appeared again last year, I updated the report to  “Silver Dip 2018”.

The 2018 report showed how the opportunity for this speculation was even better than it was in 2015.

Yet the profits have not yet arrived.  This allows me to make an amazing no-risk guaranteed offer to you.

Silver Dip 2019 includes profit calculations for 2019 and I offer you the report “Silver Dip 2019” with a year long guarantee.

“If the profits recommended in the report don’t arrive by the end of the year, I’ll give you a complete and full refund”.

That’s right if the tactic described in Silver Dip 2019 do not hit their target, you don’t have to pay a thing for the report.

Investing in silver ETFs leveraged with margin loans may create extraordinary profits in 2019.

The “Silver Dip 2019”  shows how to easily make an ideal speculation for almost any amount.   The report shows when and how to get margin loans in dollars, British pound, Japanese yen or euro.

In fact you learn how to borrow in 23 different currencies, even Russian rubles, so you can choose the weakest currency with the lowest interest rates.

Low Interest Loans

Interest on the loan won’t eat up profits.  The “Silver Dip 2019” shows how to borrow many currencies right now for less than 2%.

The Silver Dip is only exercised when conditions are absolutely ideal.  Value investors never push this rule.  Investment and speculative markets are full of rumor, conjecture (a lot of it false) and hidden agendas.  The Silver Dip relies instead on a really simple theory… that the price of gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s price should maintain a parity with gold.  When that parity is out of balance (as it has been since August 2018) silver’s price is ready to explode.

The “Silver Dip 2019” explains how to speculate in silver ETFs plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in silver if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment:  who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons why conditions are excellent for better for a Silver Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2019” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2019” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in silver.

Learn how to beware of certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how silver profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of silver’s price with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine its real value.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of silver to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2019  $39.95

The benefit of 50 years experience in watching markets, metals, bonds, interest rates and currencies, I have learned many special pricing situations to watch for.

These special opportunities do not appear every day.  That’s why they are special.

Unless you have seen them come and go, it’s hard to see them coming again.

That is why I was willing to wait for years for silver to be in a special pricing position.

Our courses and reports are about finding good value and they have been helping astute readers find value investments, again and again for 50 years.

The “Silver Dip 2019” report shows a current huge opportunity.  I continuously watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.   Sometimes a rare quirk, such as the currency distortions, low cost loans and low silver price  offer potential for profit, with very little risk of long term loss.

Investors who speculate on these aberrations at the correct time can make fortunes.

The time is now.

Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

We are stalking precious metal opportunity now.

The trap is set. We are waiting…

This opportunity is explained in the report “Silver Dip 2019”.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Here is why there is no risk for you.  The report is 100% guaranteed.

I do not sell book, reports and courses.  I offer benefits.  If  the Silver Dip 2019 does not bring you the benefits you expect, just let me know any time in 2019 and I’ll send you a quick, no questions asked, full refund.

I can’t promise that silver’s price will rise in 2019 but  I can guarantee you’ll be fully satisfied with the report or… you can have your money back in full.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Gary

Two Ways to Cure Fear for Health & Wealth


I understand phobias from a real lesson in uncontrollable fear.

Many years ago I was living in Chelsea, London on Radnor Walk, just off the King’s Road. While walking along the walk headed for the Sloane Square tube station, a dog passed.  For reasons unknown, he decided to tear into me.  That dog grabbed my arm and really went to it.

Cynophobia

Image from animaplanet.com article on cynophobia (1)

I developed cynophobia, an unreasonable fear of dogs.  For about two years I could not be near a dog.   I love animals.  My dad was a zoo keeper.  We raised baby lions and tigers and always had dogs.  Yet I could not during that time let a dog get near me.  I would rationally tell myself how stupid that was, but my body and mind simply took over.

Part of me knew the fear was unreasonable and irrational, but for some other part of my brain, it was real and in control.

So I know fear.

Fear has a huge impact on how people invest. I always look to learn more about it, intellectually that is.  Interesting research shows that a drug can cure extreme fear.

A recent article, compared three groups in the journal Biological Psychiatry perked my interest.  (2) One group was exposed to a tarantula in a glass jar for two minutes, and then given a beta-blocker called propranolol.  The second group was exposed to the tarantula and given a placebo. The third group was just given propranolol without being shown the spider.

The first group’s anxiety had dropped significantly when shown the spider then after taking the drug, then again three months later, and finally after a year. Those who received the propranolol alone and those who had the placebo had no improvement.  The arachnophobes who were exposed to the spider and given the drug were able to touch the tarantula within days and by three months.  Many felt comfortable holding the spider with their bare hands. Their fear did not return even at the end of one year.

Propranolol blocks a brain chemical, similar to adrenaline, that enhances learning.  Blocking that chemical disrupts memory storage after it is retrieved, a process called reconsolidation.

Blocking an emotional memory, real or imagined about  spiders and a dreaded outcome, when briefly exposed to  a spider, stops the reactivated fear.  Now the pharmaceutical industry is working on a drug to block fears.   This will take years and when it arrives, I bet it will cost a lot!

This drug will not stop the fear we feel when markets crash everywhere and investors stampede.   2016 is likely to be a year when investors are immersed in fear.  Fear forces most investors to sell investments at exactly the wrong time and miss the greatest opportunities.  Buying high and selling low is caused by the fear based “Behavior Gap”.

The question of economic survival is not in whether a crash will come or not.  The crash will come.  No one knows exactly when, but it is on its way.

The question of success or failure will be answered by your behavior.  There are several ways to improve investing behavior by controlling fear. The note below shows how to cure this wealth problem with trailing stops and algorithms.  I highly recommend that you read it.

Gary

(1) www.animalplanet.com  Fear of dogs cynophobia/

(2) www.nytimes.com A drug to cure fear

Protect Your Wealth From Mistakes

Here are three steps to multi currency profits.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make you smarter than the smartest man in the world.

sir issac newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market.  His comment was “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence in seeking value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why two of the three exports I use in my Purposeful investing course (Pi) and mathematicians not economists.  I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline in our Pi course.

Use math, not emotion to protect your wealth.

There are time tested mathematical systems that can help you know when to take profits that maximizes gains and minimizes loss.

These systems help you seek value but also create disciplined exit strategies because one of the toughest decisions most of us have is to know when to sell a rising or falling share.

Human nature makes it harder to let winners run, than to cut loses.

Let’s look at a real time example of how purposeful investing strategies can increase profit.  In this real example, in 2002 Merri and I invested in Jyske Bank shares.  We were visiting the bank with a group of readers.  We had been in Copenhagen for several days and took the group out to the bank’s headquarters in the small charming village of Silkeborg.  We visited the CEO (who has been a friend for many years) in his new modest offices, saw the bank’s new currency trading room and visited with the Jyske Invest Fund Managers.  What impressed us was the conservative and balanced thinking throughout the bank.  There were no staff limos or corporate jets.  The CEO’s office was small with walls of glass so staff could see him at work.  The bank worked for and talked about the long term view.

TFC Corp

Jyske Bank share price since September 2002.

We invested in Jyske shares at DKK96.50 on 2nd September 2002. We sold half in April 2006 at DKK352.50.  The share price of the remaining shares we hold have never dropped below our purchase price.  Today the share price is over DKK300 again.

Could I have done better with a mathematical system?  I asked Dr. Richard Smith, CEO of Tradestops.com,  who has a PhD in mathematics and is one of the experts we use in our system, to see how his trailing stops strategy would have increased my profit.

It turns out I could have done better.  Much better.   Here is the chart of the trailing stops that his strategy would have given me had I been using it.

magci calculator

Click on image to enlarge.

Let’s look at three scenarios to show the difference in profit between using simple buy and hold with no stops, my system of taking back the original investment and the Trailing Stops strategy.  For simplicity sake, I am not including dollar to Danish kroner fluctuations.  The forex fluctuations would make a difference if calculated in US dollars performance but we’ll analyze that element of the invest in another message.

Scenario #1: DKK100,000 becomes worth DKK350,158.  Profit is DKK241,880 in 15 years.  In this scenario we assume a DKK100,000 investment.  The investment is at DKK96.50 so 1036 shares were purchased.  The assumption in this scenario is that all the shares have been held.  The price of today’s quote (April 23, 2015) is DKK330.  The value is DKK341,880 on DKK100,000 invested.

Scenario #2: DKK100,000 becomes worth DKK357,679. Profit is DKK247,840 in 15 years.  Assume again, DKK100,000 investment.  1036 shares were purchased at DKK96.50.  In this scenario, (what I actually did), 285 shares when the price reached DKK352.50.  This returned my original investment appx. DKK100,000.  The remaining 751 shares at 330 (4/22/2015 price) are still held so are worth DKK 247,840.  This represents a total profit of  247,840.  This is a little better than keeping all the shares,  except the shares sold in 2006 created new opportunity potential for nine years so this scenario is actually much better than the numbers appear.

Scenario #3: DKK 100,000 becomes worth DKK1,156,069.  Profit is DKK1,056,069 in 15 years.  As in the other two scenarios there was a DKK100,000 investment.  1036 shares were purchased at DKK96.50.

Dr. Smith, backtracked to and see what the system would have done would with this share.

Richard sent the exact dates with buy and sell numbers:

Exit @ 325.50 on 6/13/2006.  All the shares are sold bringing in DKK337,218.

Buy @ 321.98 on 10/9/2006.  The DKK337,218 buys 1047 shares.

Exit @ 404 on 6/8/2007.   This sale grosses DKK422,988

Buy @ 118.5 on 3/20/2009.  The DKK422,988 buys 3,569 shares

Exit @ 170 on 8/10/2011. This sale grosses DKK606,730

Buy @ 173.40 on 2/1/2012.  The DKK606,730 buys 3,499 shares

Still in @ 330.4 on 4/22/2015. The share value at this time is DKK1,156,069.

Wow, what a difference if one followed and used the trailing stops.  The trailing stops and re buy signals increase the investment by 11 times versus 3.5 times in the other scenario.

The Jyske shares have a volatility quotient at this time of 15.5% so would create a sell signal at around DKK287 at this time.

These scenarios are based on approximations and do not include trading costs, management fees, etc. so the real money in the bank would not be exactly this amount.  For our analytical purposes this study suggests that trailing stops help us protect the successes we gain in spurts.

This type of math creates great discipline so you know not to sell too soon and give away profit but, also know not to hold too long and give away returns already made.

Yet using trailing stops only works when you have good shares to begin.

To easily spot good value, we use Keppler Asset Management  as our first source of data.  We follow the analysis of our friend, Michael Keppler.

Michael Keppler is an expert on stock market value and I have worked with him for nearly 30 years because the best way to create long term multi currency investment profits is to get good value in the shares you buy.

Michael continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each major stock market’s history.  From this he develops his Good Value Major Stock Market Strategy, an analysis that is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short ups and downs.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Keppler.  In my opinion, Michael is one of the best market statisticians in the world.

Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds. In January, his company, Keppler Asset Management, was, for the third consecutive year, named Best Fund Company in the Fund Specialists’ category by Capital, a leading German business magazine.  Keppler’s firm was one of only six out of 100 companies tested that received the highest five-star rating based on an independent evaluation of fund quality, management, and customer service by Feri Rating & Research and Steria Mummert Consulting.

Yet you have not heard about Keppler nor can you hire his services because he only serves mutual funds and institutional investors for investors in Europe.

This is why I want to introduce you to our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) with this special offer.

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

Become Smarter

 

Join the top 3 percent of intelligent people in the world.

Become more independent and relaxed by becoming smarter.

A study of 10,000 British people studied the pure relationship between intelligence and happiness stability.

IQ can predict the emotional ups and downs of life.   The research found that the lower the IQ,  the more stress and higher the ups and downs in life satisfaction.  The differences were not due to education, income, or jobs either, but simply IQ.

gary-scott-seminar

Delegates at a Super Thinking course relaxing in their secret rose garden.

Free yourself by becoming smarter, healthier, happier… in just weeks… hearing  a relaxation session that takes you into your secret rose garden.

Merri, David and I originally developed this session for our Super Thinking courses and have set it into an online workshop for you.

Listen… just 18 minutes day.  We guarantee your life will be better.

Inflate Your IQ.

When it comes to money… inflation is cheating.

That’s bad for you.

When it comes to intelligence… inflating is smart… fair… good for you and it’s good for the rest of the world.

Monetary inflation is a sneaky government and business trick.

What cost a dollar in 1965 can easily cost $15 now.

They promise you more.

Liars?

They devalue the currency so you get more dollars that buy less.  They can rip off your salary,  your pension…raise insurance, almost everything.

And they make you work harder… longer… for less.

Whittle, whittle, whittle.  Push, push, push.  That’s what monetary inflation does to you.

Fight back… overcome the inflation trick.  Inflate your IQ as you relax.

Gain more than IQ.

Be smarter… more energetic…. healthier… more relaxed.

That’s the way to get ahead!

Create more income opportunity.  Reduce stress.  Improve your health.  Be naturally smarter… use Super Thinking.

You can improve your IQ in just weeks.

You might well ask… How is this possible?

Here’s how the scientists say it is possible.

A Wall Street Journal article entitled “Ways to Inflate Your IQ”(1)  show how you can be smarter and actually add matter to your brainThe article says:

           Many people think of IQ as a genetic trait, like brown eyes or short legs: You’re born with it and you’re stuck with it.

Now, a growing body of research is showing that a person’s IQ can rise—and even fall—over the years.

Scores can change gradually or quickly, after as little as a few weeks of cognitive training, research shows.

British students were given IQ tests and brain scans at ages 12 to 16 and again about four years later.  9% of the students showed a significant change of 15 points or more in IQ scores.

The study published in Nature said that on a scale where 90 to 110 is considered average, one student’s IQ rose 21 points to 128 from 107, lifting the student from the 68th percentile to the 97th compared with others the same age. 

MRIs in this study showed changes in gray matter in areas corresponding to fluctuations in the kid’s skills.

There are practical steps people can take to see longer-term IQ changes.  New tasks stimulate the brain most.  Young adults given just one month of intense training in juggling, found an increase in the corresponding gray matter in the brain as early as seven days after the training began.

Fluctuations in IQ scores over time underscore the brain-boosting benefits of musical training and new experiences throughout a lifetime.

Music lessons are linked to higher IQ throughout life.  Six years’ lessons lifted children’s IQ scores an average 7.5 points.

 Improve the brain through music… without lessons.

Here’s the Super Thinking story…

The educational program Merri and I developed uses a form of brain wave integration that increases IQ.

Super Thinking uses frequency (in music and a number of other ways) to integrate brain waves so the process of absorbing, processing and recalling information is vastly accelerated.  The music creates the three C’s:  Calm, Clarity and Coherence.

This Super Thinking program is not a gimmick or trick… just advanced education.

Certain types of Baroque music are the base, and they make you smarter!

Proof?

At least four best selling books, “Psychic Discoveries Behind the Iron Curtain”,  “Superlearning”, the “Mozart Effect” and “Superlearning 2000″ showed how to learn and think more powerfully based on systems drawn from the Bulgarian educational master, Dr. Georgi Lozanov.

This Baroque music tactic alone is so powerful that Small Business Innovation Research… an official site of the US government granted over $100,000 for the specific purpose they said was: to provide a method to remove barriers which hinder or prevent the employment of blind persons.  An innovative method, the Lozanov Learning System, is proposed to help train blind persons to become computer programmers and operators of automated equipment.

Merri was among just a few who learned this technique directly from Dr. Lozanov the time he visited the USA.

Our Super Thinking workshop enhanced this system with numerous other tactics.

We added slight alterations in nutrition that create a higher IQ.   Altered nutritional tips in Super Thinking can make anyone 25% smarter!

Baroque Music and nutrition are just part of seven, easy to use, learning techniques that make you smarter.

Gain any skill, from computers to athletics to conversational languages…in less time…two-to-five times faster.

Here’s a huge bonus.  Super Thinking also relieves stress.  Super Thinking is fun.

You can use a Super Thinking focus in everything:  health… earning… education… investing.

Super Thinking works on the learner first…the data second.  This system “grows the learner” rather than the information.

If you have 4.5 inches of information flowing through a 4 inch learning pipe, the solution is not to add another inch of information.  The answer is create a six inch IQ pipe!

Share our years of experience.

For nearly 50 years, Merri and I have conducted hundreds of courses and tours for tens of thousands, in dozens of countries (even behind the Iron Curtain).  Our Super Thinking Workshop has been one of the most profound.  Now the workshop is even better online because it condenses Super Thinking so you can increase your IQ, at home… right away.

The workshop shows how these mind expanding tactics can be applied to starting and running a business for extra income, to forex trading and investing.  Athletes of all types… golfing being one common sport benefit.  Our Super Thinking plan goes far beyond Lozanov and allows you to rapidly get smarter in every part of your life.

For example, real estate broker, Suzy Kurinsky took the workshop to help her learn Spanish.

She wrote: “You are the BEST!!! Your Seminar was fantastic! I am so excited. I had procrastinated fulfilling my continuing education for my Broker’s License and then just before my surgeries, I realized by expiration date isn’t Nov. 12th – it is Sept 12th. Prior to taking your course I had only completed 3 units of the required 45 units. I thought I would take your course and then complete my remaining 42 units over the next 2 weeks. However, I took one class exam on Saturday night, August 27th. I didn’t even take the cellophane off the required Course manuals until after I saw the two of you today less than 5 hours ago! I used your techniques and completed 39 units of continuing education today. I have now completed all 45 units. All of my test scores were in the 90.6-96% range.  My course exam information is listed below. I just wanted to let you know how valuable your course was to me. Thanks again!”

Super thinking can improve almost anything you do… faster, better, more fun and with less stress.

Another attendee to the Super Thinking Workshop sent this note.

 Thank you for the wonderful workshop on Super Learning + Spanish!  I really enjoyed the workshop and getting to know you.   I can see several ways to apply what I learned in the classes I teach.

Since I returned home, I have purchased some of the CDs of Baroque music and thought about which specific pieces will work best in different parts of my classes.  I am also reading Perfect Health by Deepak Chopra.  I found your discussion of this book to be very helpful in showing how to balance one’s life.  I have adjusted my daily schedule, and I can already notice a difference in my productivity.

Super Thinking can help improve your health. Super Thinking can make you rich and add richness to your life.

However the time, travel expense and workshop cost (delegates have paid up to $999) have prohibited many from getting this benefit.

That’s why we have created the workshop in electronic form.  Get Super Thinking online for less than fifty bucks.

You can order the online Super Thinking Workshop here ($49.95)

Relax in the Secret Rose Garden.

The workshop is divided into two parts.  Part one is the application… the sessions that tell you exactly what to do, what music to use and even includes two recorded sessions based around a secret rose garden that you can use.  We have kept this portion short and simple so you can easily start immediately.

Part two is a longer portion on theory.

Part one is enough.

Super Thinking is like jogging… giving results if you simply do it!

You do not have to know why Super Thinking works to increase your IQ.   But Part Two explains why you are getting the good results from Part One, if you want to know.

You might ask…”Will it work for me”?

The Super Thinking Workshop will help increase your IQ.

Our guarantee.

I guarantee it.  Order the Super Thinking Workshop.  Use it for two months.  If you are not totally satisfied… in any way, during that time, simply let me know and I’ll send a full refund… immediately… no questions asked.

Order the online Super Thinking Workshop here ($49.95)

Another Super Thinking workshop attendee wrote: Listening to the two of you during our time together has suddenly got me to thinking, and although some of the ideas still seem foreign to me,  I am at a point in my life now where I can say, “anything is possible”.   I am now willing to embrace and allow myself to experience the world of possibility and let it take me in directions I may have in the past resisted.  I really don’t know where all this is going to lead me but I am now willing to explore, develop and grow.   Thank you again for a wonderful four days!!

Inflation is a cheat… a crime when it comes to money.  Inflating your IQ to beat inflation is simple good sense.  Learn Super Thinking now with no risk.  Begin to increase your intelligence today.

Order the online Super Thinking Workshop  $49.95.

Gary

(1) Read Wall Street Journal article Ways to Inflate Your IQ

(2) See government grant records on teaching blind persons with the Lozanov method

 

Pi’s Basic Purpose


This reply to a Pi subscriber clarifies how Pi can help in one of three ways.

A long time subscriber sent a note after reading a January 2016 CNBC headline that said “Red alert: A $1 trillion stock bubble ready to pop”.  He asked, Does this affect your thinking? 

I sent this reader the chart of the MSCI Word Index since 1970 (below) and a lengthy reply.

msci world index

MSCI Word Index since 1970.

Here is my reply:  This is a good question.   The answer has little to do with markets, but relates to questions of time, mentality, comfort and life’s purpose instead.

Most investors spend too much time deciding what markets will do, when the focus should be on their emotions and reactions to the market.  Emotions usually determine profits and losses, not the markets.

The 45 year chart (above) of the MSCI World Index shows that markets are not the problem.  If an investor simply invested in this index and left it alone for the last 45 years they increased their money by more than ten times without any worries, fuss or bother.  In addition if they did so with an Index ETF, they lost little in trading costs.

The MSCI World Index  captures large and mid cap representation across 23 Developed Market countries. With 1,653 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.  You cannot diversify much more than that.  Yet an investment into the ETF  iShares MSCI World (symbol XWD.TO) is like investing equally into all those shares.

However, we can do better than the world index.   An equally weighted portfolio of Top Value country ETFs outperforms the total world ETF.

The difference between a bull market and a bear is time.  We know that the world stock markets have been in a bull market since 1970.   It can be argued that we are at the end of a seven year bull market.  My strategy is based on the belief that we are at the end of a 17 year bear and headed to a 17 year bull market.

I ask Pi subscribers to ask themselves, ‘How do I feel about timing?  What is more important to me, getting out of the bear or getting into the bull?’

All investors should ask (and answer)  “How do I feel when my investments go up or down?How do I react to how I feel?”

In addition all investing strategies should take the cost of stress and the value in quality of life into account.  Here are some thoughts:

How much time does one want to spend fiddling with shares?

Where do we want to find our agony and ecstasy, in share fluctuations or elsewhere?

Do we have better places to spend our time?

Do we feel we really can out think the market?

The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) tracks three types of portfolio that make top value investing easier, safer and more profitable.

The first type of portfolio is the Primary Pifolio.  This is the portfolio that Merri and I use.  We simply diversify into the good value markets as defined by Keppler Asset Management and leave the timing for the long term.  The portfolio may rise or fall but I believe in long term prospects and believe that we will be better off if we leave our portfolio alone and do not try to time the markets.

This strategy stops me from meddling and muddling our investments with wrong decisions.  Our tactics ignore the emotions I go through when shares in my portfolio rise and fall.  This is good because my nature is to become attached to my investments and let my emotions cloud my logic.

Investing in  an equally weighted, diversified, good value portfolio and leaving it alone helps me avoid losses caused by the behavior gap.

This strategy also gives me more time to think about other things such as long term strategy and to spend more time in my business, where I have a much greater chance of making profit.  I’ll ride through storms because I believe in the long term growth prospects of this broadly diversified, equally weighted mix good value equities.  Plus I avoid a lot of trading costs.

The 2nd Pifolio follows Richard Smith’s Tradestops “Smart Trailing Stop 2.0” system.

Smith, like Keppler is a mathematician whom I trust very much.  Instead of using a buy and hold strategy, Smith creates trailing stops based on moving average algorithms.  The computer generated calculations recommend when to sell and when to buy back in.

This approach may create higher profits, if the trailing stop discipline is adhered to.  I am not sure I have the mentality to sell (as the algorithms suggest) most of my portfolio right now.  I agonize over making decisions, so I am often too slow getting in.  However, once I make a choice, I am stubborn and am often too slow getting out.   This means that following a Trailing Stops trading discipline is emotionally hard for me.  My chances of screwing up a good thing by second guessing are high.  Instead I use  a modified approach and let the Trailing Stop alerts warn me when to hold back on investing more.

The third portfolio we track is composed of specific shares selected by Eric Roseman and Thomas Fischer at ENR Asset Management.  ENR uses good value principles for those who feel comfortable with a diversified portfolio of individual shares instead of indices.

When this primer was issued (January 2016) ENR  was recommending to their advisory clients: “Buy long-term bonds, Buy reverse-market indexes, Buy option exchanges, Gold bullion, Raise cash reserves.”

ENR had 12 shares in their recommended portfolio at that time including CBOE Holdings, (NASDAQ CBOE), ProShares Short S&P 500 Index, iShares MSCI EAFE Minimum Volatility ETF (NYSE EFAV) Fanuc Corporation (Tokyo 6954).  These shares were shown in the ENR Piflio Updates.

Pi’s philosophy is not based on the question  “What are markets going to do?”

Pi’s philosophy is based around answers to these questions:

  • How do I react to the ups and downs in equity markets?
  • What type of investing philosophy am I most comfortable with?
  • Which plan am I most likely to stick to?

Support for this thinking comes from a quote from Warren Buffet in the 2013 Berkshire-Hathaway Annual Report:

“Most investors, of course, have not made the study of business prospects a priority in their lives. If wise,  they will conclude that they do not know enough about specific businesses to predict their future earning power.

“I have good news for these non-professionals: The typical investor doesn’t need this skill. In aggregate, American business has done wonderfully over time and will continue to do so (though, most assuredly, in unpredictable fits and starts). In the 20th Century, the Dow Jones Industrials index advanced from 66 to 11,497, paying a rising stream of dividends to boot. The 21st Century will witness further gains, almost certain to be substantial.  The goal of the non-professional should not be to pick winners – neither he nor his “helpers” can do that – but should rather be to own a cross-section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal.

“That’s the “what” of investing for the non-professional. The “when” is also important. The main danger is that the timid or beginning investor will enter the market at a time of extreme exuberance and then become disillusioned when paper losses occur. (Remember the late Barton Biggs’ observation: “A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.”) The antidote to that kind of mistiming is for an investor to accumulate shares over a long period and never to sell when the news is bad and stocks are well off their highs. Following those rules, the “know-nothing” investor who both diversifies and keeps his costs minimal is virtually certain to get satisfactory results. Indeed, the unsophisticated investor who is realistic about his shortcomings is likely to obtain better long-term results than the knowledgeable professional who is blind to even a single weakness.

“My money, I should add, is where my mouth is: What I advise here is essentially identical to certain instructions I’ve laid out in my will. One bequest provides that cash will be delivered to a trustee for my wife’s benefit. (I have to use cash for individual bequests, because all of my Berkshire shares will be fully distributed to certain philanthropic organizations over the ten years following the closing of my estate.)  My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund.  (I suggest Vanguard’s.)  I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors – whether pension funds, institutions or individuals – who employ high-fee managers.”

Pi’s strategy is based on the long term, big picture belief that in the 21st Century business will have strong further gains.  There will be more productivity through innovation (more supply) and a growing global population (more demand).

We do not have to depend on what equity markets will do short term. In the long term, share prices will rise (albeit in spurts).  Our best individual investing strategies should be centered around our individual beliefs and understanding of ourselves.  We each need to have an honest grip of how we individually feel and react to the spurts that equity markets will have.   We each need to choose a strategy that suits our personality and one that we can stick with.

Our individual strategy should reflect what we each want from our remaining years.

Personally at 70 I hope to have 30 years left (Mom’s 93 and still going strong so why not?) but whatever time I am graced with, I would like to spend as much of it in enjoyable pursuits.  Sitting in front of a monitor, watching and anticipating short term stock market moves and trading stocks is not one of the favored choices for me.

I hope this explanation of Pi’s core beliefs helped clarify the situation for the subscriber reader and helps you understand how Pi can assist you in reducing risk and increasing profits.

Gary

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investing Advice from Cecil


We can get some investing advice from the media exposure of Cecil the Lion.  Let’s see if I can walk through a mine field because we can learn a lesson on how to be better investors by thinking through the recent outrage about the killing of a lion.

healthy-pet-lions

Picture from old Oregon Journal article of me and my sister feeding a baby tiger we were raising.

May I start with credentials?  I am pro lion and do know a bit about lions and tigers.  My dad was a zookeeper in Portland, Oregon.  We raised many lions and tigers at home that were abandoned by their mom’s.

bill-scott-lion-image

My dad with Boots a lion we raised.

We returned these babies to the zoo at about this age.  I doubt we would do this in today’s litigious atmosphere.

While many of my neighbors had cats and dogs, I used to ride around the neighborhood with big felines.  We raised them from the day they were born, feeding them from a bottle, burping them over our shoulders and rubbing their rear ends with warm rags to make sure they did not become constipated.  They were family and I am sure they felt that way.

The last one raised, while I was at home, was Rajah, a Bengal tiger.  He was about as big as a German Shepard and slept at night with me before we returned him to the zoo.  The parting broke my heart.  I was sick for a week.

My son followed in my footsteps and worked for years as an education coordinator with the National Wildlife Federation and was involved in the project to protect Florida Panthers in the Everglades.

So the media wave about the shooting of Cecil the Lion caught my attention.  The way the media hype swayed public opinion fascinated me because this is the same type of media hype that leads so many investors to destruction.

This type of media exaggeration created the wild west and many other major unreal dream worlds.  I am not condoning nor condemning sports hunting.  There are many pros and cons about hunting, as with most things.

I am looking at how many partial truths in this story created so much destructive emotion.

A thought provoking article in the New York Times entitled “In Zimbabwe we do not cry for lions” (1) asks some very pertinent questions that are worth considering.

The article says: The American tendency to romanticize animals that have been given actual names and to jump onto a hashtag train has turned an ordinary situation — there were 800 lions legally killed over a decade by well-heeled foreigners who shelled out serious money to prove their prowess — into what seems to my Zimbabwean eyes an absurdist circus.  We Zimbabweans are left shaking our heads, wondering why Americans care more about African animals than about African people.  Zimbabwean politicians are accusing the United States of staging Cecil’s killing as a “ploy” to make our country look bad.  Americans who can’t find Zimbabwe on a map are applauding the nation’s demand for the extradition of the dentist, unaware that a baby elephant was reportedly slaughtered for our president’s most recent birthday banquet.  Don’t tell us what to do with our animals when you allowed your own mountain lions to be hunted to near extinction in the eastern United States. Don’t bemoan the clear-cutting of our forests when you turned yours into concrete jungles.  And please, don’t offer me condolences about Cecil unless you’re also willing to offer me condolences for villagers killed or left hungry by his brethren, by political violence, or by hunger.

A Washington Post article (2) tells how PETA is calling for the hunter to be hanged. This much outrage has the potential to do more harm than good.

Here is one moral in this story.   The media rarely gives us the full story.   The media profits when readers jump on a bandwagon, no matter what it is about.   We as investors have to sort out the reality from the stories we read.

This is why wise investors always look beyond the story and try to find support in numbers.

Bertrand Russell once said “The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed, in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a wide-spread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible”.

Whatever happens when you read a story, about investing ideas, about lions or whatever, remember this golden rule of investing. “Do not let feelings influence you too much”. 

Make profitable investments that are meaningful to you because they are through out, supported by value and all the pros and cons have been examined.  Do not let media or mass hysteria sway your logic so you make investments based on any short term emotional response.  History shows us that the predators in investment markets make short work of those who do.

One way to gain the power of math is to use trailing stops when you invest.  See more on how to use trailing stops with your investments here.

Gary

(1) nytimes.com  In Zimbabwe we don’t cry for lions

(2)  www.washingtonpost.com  Peta calls for Walter Palmer to be hanged for killing Cecil the lion

Gain From Election Volatility

Here we are again… another election on its way… all the robo calls from politicians… the dirty tricks and the innumerable amounts of nonsense this vital process brings.

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the election process.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   A market correction is due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics has created an uncertain era.  Everyone has been shaken over the past three years whether they are pleased with the government or not.

Nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third if we see rising interest rates, this will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the strong US dollar and undervalue non dollar stock markets to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies are the best way to profit long term, through good politics and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.

However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 plus years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

finance.yahoo.com chart SLV

iShares Silver Trust (symbol SLV) from www.finance.yahoo.com

Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2019 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2109”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2019” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2019” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2109” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Gary

 

 

 

Execute or Be Executed by Investments


Yesterday’s message “The Seventh Prediction” made a bold statement. “Here are six predictions where profits are guaranteed.” 

Read the seventh prediction here.

I could afford to be bold because I made those predictions over the past 49 years.  Hindsight can be 20-20.

These predictions were correct.  Anyone who invested in them had a chance to become unbelievably rich.

The words “had a chance” leads us to the 2nd Golden Rules of Investing: “Human nature stacks the odds against us“.

This rule really struck home many years ago when Merri and I were strolling in the dawn near this wonderful old hotel, The Tampa Bay Bel Mido,  known as “The White Queen of The Gulf”.  Built in 1897, it sits high on a bluff and combines old world charm, from the antique-filled Henry Library to the Tiffany Ballroom with its priceless skylights of stained glass, to its private resort setting.

I will never forget this hotel because I learned perhaps the most valuable lesson about investing.  We were conducting an investing seminar there.  As I arrived at the hotel to check in, even before I reached the registration desk, one of the delegates, a heart surgeon, approached me and vigorously shook my hand.  “Gary,” he said, “I cannot thank you enough.  I have followed your recommendations about borrowing yen to invest in pesos and shares and have made so much money.  I have been able to buy a house on the beach in my homeland and can now retire.”

I felt a glow as I walked away headed for the check-in counter of the hotel.  (One always feels good having helped a client and friend.)  I was happy that the doctor had made a lot more profit than I did.  I am conservative with my own investments and had only borrowed two to one.  This doctor had borrowed four to one and had held on during the yen rise.

However, the warm feelings did not last. Still before I could check in another delegate, also a medical professional, collared me. “Gary,” he said, “I am not even sure if I should be here. I followed your advice borrowing the yen to invest in peso and shares and lost every single penny.”

It turned out he had chosen to borrow six to one.  When the yen appreciated and he was faced with putting up substantially more money, he decided to cut his losses.

Three investors (two doctors and myself) with similar backgrounds and exactly the same information.  All had the same investment manager yet they obtained three totally different results!

The lesson was clear.  The most important investment manager is always yourself.   In the end your other investment manager (or managers) will never make you happy unless you have a belief and purpose that guides and manages them.

With this in mind here are excerpts from the Felix Dennis poem that is at the beginning of his book, “How to Get Rich”.

Good Fortune?
The fact is
The more that you practise,
The harder you sweat,
The luckier you get.

Ideas?
We’ve had’em
Since Eve deceived Adam,
But take it from me
Execution’s the key.

This poem holds true in business and investing.

Because of this rule, most investors execute in the exactly the wrong way.  They sell their winners and keep their losers.

When we invest in the unknown, millenniums of human evolution kick in.  Doubts arrive, especially if the investment falters.  Our fears and doubts create an investor phenomenon called the “Behavior Gap”.

The behavior gap is the difference between the rate of return earned from a diversified portfolio that is rebalanced correctly and the rate of returns earned by investors who move their money around in an emotional response to market ups and downs.

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why most investors fail (and few succeed).  Hasty, emotional decisions based on fear and greed cause portfolios to significantly under perform the market in which they invest.

A large body of psychological and physiology research, including magnetic resonance imaging, shows that most human beings do not make the correct logical decisions to overcome the power of emotion when making or losing money.  Neuroscientists have even shown that making money stimulates the brain with dopamine, almost like cocaine.

Financial loss however, or even the threat of loss, is like a physical attack.  Fear, anger and grief release adrenaline and cortisol.  The heart rate and blood pressure rise.  We sweat and become alert ready to fight or flee.  These reactions are hardwired into our bodies.  We cannot change this.

We can learn how to beat the behavior gap with trailing stops.  Trailing stops use logic to create a discipline that increases emotional stability as they reduce risk and increase the potential for profit.

I have been sharing a real life example at this site based on my long term investments which have been in shares of Jyske Bank.

I worked with and believed strongly in this bank so held these shares through good times and bad.  Because I did not support those beliefs with the mathematics and use trailing stops, I gave up huge amounts of profit.  I earned 257,679 kroner instead of 1,056,069.   I lost this because of the behavior gap.

My original investment turned 100,000 Danish kroner into 357,679 Danish kroner.  This has been a great return but the investment could have grown to 1,156,069 Danish kroner instead if I had enhanced my purpose by using a system of trailing stops.

Good investing requires a relentless search for value. Look at the math instead of listening to the stories.   Then create a mathematical discipline trailing stop to overcome fear and emotions.

My newest course,  The Purposeful Investing Course Pi, examines numerous portfolios real time to learn how to create strategies based on mathematically verifiable value rather than stories.

Gary

Gain From Election Volatility

Here we are again… another election on its way… all the robo calls from politicians… the dirty tricks and the innumerable amounts of nonsense this vital process brings.

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the election process.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   A market correction is due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics has created an uncertain era.  Everyone has been shaken over the past three years whether they are pleased with the government or not.

Nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third if we see rising interest rates, this will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the strong US dollar and undervalue non dollar stock markets to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies are the best way to profit long term, through good politics and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.

However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 plus years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

finance.yahoo.com chart SLV

iShares Silver Trust (symbol SLV) from www.finance.yahoo.com

Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2019 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2109”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2019” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2019” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2109” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Gary

 

 

 

 

The Seventh Prediction


Here are six predictions where profits are guaranteed.  They are absolute guarantees because I made these predictions over the past 49 years.  They were correct and those who invested in the six predictions became unbelievably rich.  Each had a cycle though, so the really great opportunity is now past.

You can still use these six predictions though, because they lead to the seventh prediction that I am investing in now.

See below the six predictions to learn how to cash in on the seventh prediction.  Use my 49 years of global investing research to gain slow, profitable, worry free investing… plus discover how even your amazing investments could earn 1,237% more!

Prediction #1 – 1970s: Invest in the Hong Kong Stock Market.  This prediction was in my first published report “Three Secrets for Investing Abroad”.  The Heng Seng Index was around 700.   Since then it has risen to over 21,000, an increase of  30 times.

Heng seng chart

Heng Seng chart from www. yahoo.com.  Click to enlarge.  Compare that to the Dow which has risen only 17 times.

Prediction #2 – early 1980s: Invest in London real estate.  Prices looked so good that Merri and I conducted London real estate tours.  The first house I bought in central London cost $35,000.  Today the average price in this area is almost $2.5 million (1.6 million pounds).

daily mail graph

Graph from Daily Mail.

Prediction #3 – later 1980s: Invest in Isle of Man Real Estate.  You could buy a nice ocean front house for $20,000.  Merri and I shifted our seminars and tours from London to the Isle of Man.  By the 1990s that price had risen 10 times.  When the UK market crashed in the early 1990s, Manx values doubled. The average house price went from around $125,000 in 1995 to about $375,000 by 2007.

Prediction #4 – early 1990s: Borrow yen at low interest rates and deposit in dollars at high interest rates and related currencies.

Yen chart

See full chart at Fxtop.com

Three times, our predictions of when to borrow and/or invest in yen created fortunes.

Prediction #5 – 1997  – Invest in Ecuador real estate.

IMF charts

Those who have been reading our site for some time know that beginning in the late 1990s through mid 2000s we sold much of our Florida real estate and began buying Ecuador property.  We urged readers to join in the adventure, fun and profit.

We purchased numerous condos on the beach and in the Andes, almost 1000 acres of hacienda and even a hotel.  Prices were ridiculously low. Pretty soon hundreds of my readers were buying Ecuador real estate as well.

Prediction # 6 – 2009:  Invest in Smalltown USA.  In 2009 we switched strategies again. We started selling our Ecuador real estate and began buying back in small towns in Florida.

wsj chart

Wall Street Journal article (1)

Since then we have accumulated numerous rental properties in central Florida.  The Wall Street Journal recently reported: “Existing homes sales this year are expected to hit levels not seen since just after the peak, in 2006, driven by strong job growth, low interest rates and a gradual loosening of lending standards, according to the National Association of Realtors.”

The area we recommended and have written about is part of the fastest growing metropolitan area in the USA.  The New York Times article (2) said:  “The Villages, Florida: In 2014, its population rose more quickly than that of any other census area in the United States, climbing 5.4 percent, compared with 0.7 percent for the nation as a whole.”

Investing in each of these six predictions ourselves has created financial security.   I’ll share the investment I am making now in a moment.  First, let’s look at the first golden rule of investing because though I have achieved every financial goal that most people simply dream of, I know that all can be lost because of this rule.

Investing Rule #1:  There is always something that you and I, nor anyone, does not know.

Because 2015 is the count down year of my 50th anniversary of talking and writing about savings and investments, I want to share vital information about these rules and 49 more.

The “50 Golden Rules of Investing” are the 50 best investing lessons I have accumulated from five decades of global travel, investing and business.  The stories mostly come from mistakes made, plus some decisions that reaped really rich rewards. Before I explain how you can get these 50 Golden Rules let’s look at the first in more detail.

History is littered with this fact that there is always something we do not know.  The Titanic was called “unsinkable”.  There was “Peace in our time” in 1938.  “Dewey Defeats Truman” in 1948.  The Edsel was produced in 1958.  In 1968 Business Week wrote:  “With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market.”

Gary Scott

After working in US investments for two years, I took my first flight to Hong Kong in 1968. I wished I had known then what I know now!   That’s not how life works though.  There is always something we do not know.  This rule applies to almost  everyone, listless and smart, young and old, big and small.

A late 1870 Western Union memo said:  “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”

Associates at RCA told David Sarnoff  in the 1920s:  “The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?

The chairman of IBM said in the 1940s: “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”

Margaret Thatcher missed her own greatness, in 1974 she said: “It will be years — not in my time — before a woman will become Prime Minister.

A Boeing engineer missed knowing when after the first flight of the 247, a twin engine plane that holds ten people, he said:  “There will never be a bigger plane built.”

gary scott

2015

So here we are.  We know what happened in the past.  Looking ahead is never quite so certain, but we have to invest anyway. To live without knowing for sure and with inaccurate beliefs is part of human nature.

The Seventh Prediction.  In the 1980s.  A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.

Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said: “Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!”

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The best place to invest for the long term is in shares.  This chart from the 24 page Keppler Asset Management 2014 Asset Allocation Review shows that over the past 80+ years equities have dramatically outperformed other types of investments.

keppler

Click on chart to enlarge.

The search for good investments requires a relentless search for value.  Our investments have to be good enough to reap an outstanding profit even after the parasites siphon off part of the profit.

To take advantage of the once every 17 year circumstances, I chose to track Keppler Asset Management who continually researches developed and emerging markets globally.  Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisors.  Keppler compares the value of each share in each market based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  From this study of monumental amounts of data Keppler develops a Good Value Stock Market Strategies.  The analysis is based on long term, rational, mathematical facts and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

From Keppler I learned that market timing is not the way to get these high profits.  Another graphic from the 2014 Keppler Asset Allocation Review explains why.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

A dollar invested 88 years ago in Treasury bills rose to $20.58.  The same dollar invested in U.S. stocks over the 88 years grew to be was worth $4,677, UNLESS you missed the best 43 months.  Literally all of the the Dow’s growth in 1,056 months came in 43 of those months.  Your odds have been one in 24, better than roulette perhaps, but not good enough.  Plus even after these odds, the predators are going to take their cut.  We have to ask, “Am I that good at timing?”

The better alternative to timing is investing long term indexing based on value.  Long term strategic investing in market indices reduces the amount of trading.  Low trading activity is important because trades are where you are most vulnerable to predatory tactics.

A part of the long term strategic trading is to invest in low fee diversified Index ETFs.  This simplifies your search for value because it focuses your research into lumps.

A comparison of US versus German Stock Market Indexes gives an example of lump research and you can create good value, low cost, diversified portfolios that offer maximum potential for profit as they reduce risk.

Keppler’s research shows that Germany’s stock market is a good value market.  Keppler lumps all the shares (or at least 85% of the shares) into the calculations.  There is no attempt to select any one specific share. Keppler’s research shows that the US stock market index (a lump of about 85% of all the US shares) is now a bad value.

Germany has the world’s fourth largest economy.  The country is the third largest exporter in the world and in 2013 recorded the highest trade surplus in the world making it the biggest capital exporter globally.  Yet German shares have been overlooked.  German share prices are cheap.

The German Stock Market as of January 2015 in terms of US dollars has a relative price to book value ratio of  .78,  a relative price earnings ratio of  0.87 and a relative dividend yield of 1.12.  The US Stock Market has a much higher relative price to book value ratio of 1.29, a relative price earnings ratio of 1.07 and a relative dividend yield of 0.81.  German shares cost much less, compared to the values and earnings, than US shares.  German shares pay much higher dividends as well.

Keppler predicts that the US Stock Market (which is ranked as a sell market by Keppler) will have an annual index gain for the next five years of  3.1% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 21.7%.  The same calculations for the German Market predicts an average annual index gain over the next five years of 7.5% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 47.3%.

Which would you rather buy,  a 47.3% return sold for 78 cents on the dollar or a 21.7% return sold for $1.29 on the dollar?

You can forget about any specific share in the US or Germany and invest into an index (in this case the Morgan Stanley Capital Index) which represents about 85% of all the shares traded on the exchange.

You can invest in ETFs that passively invest in all the shares of the index in stock markets that offer good value.  iShares investment company for example has  an ETF that invests in 85% of the shares traded on Wall Street.

This ETF icalled the iShares USA (symbol EUSA) has risen from 22.91 to 43.40 or 89% in the past five years.

iShares also offers an ETF that invests in about 85% of the stocks listed on the German Stock Exchange (Symbol EWG).  EWG has risen from 19.70 to 28.13  or 42% in the past five years.

ishares

Keppler’s lump research shows that Germany is a good value market.   One simple (even very small) investment in iShares Germany MSCI Index ETF gives you a portfolio  of almost all the shares traded on Germany’s largest stock exchange in Frankfurt.  This ETF is a share traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The ETF invests in 85% of the shares in Germany.  This ETF is a passive fund that does not try to outperform the growth of the German Stock Market. The managers simply track the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index.  This makes it easy to capture the powerful economic circumstances that are unfolding now.

However, just investing in Germany is not enough.  There are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.  Plus there are 12 good value emerging markets. You can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

Investing in many stock markets through ETFs gives you opportunity in the second economic wave, a rising US dollar.  Preserving the purchasing power of your earnings, savings and wealth requires currency diversification.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.  The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years. Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if you start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

Screen Shot 2015-07-26 at 12.03.44 PM

Chart from snbchf.com   Click on chart to enlarge.

Look at that dollar spike against the Swiss franc in 1985.  The dollar rose then against the yen, the German mark, British pound and all major currencies.  Imagine the profit you could have made, had your known that the greenback was set to fall 50% in the next two years.

Conditions for a dollar downfall are set again.

For example because of fears about the euro, EWG, the German ETF is down 9 percent over the last 12 months and down 8 percent over the last six months.  These declines are created by currency concerns.  When the euro regains strength, the shares have the potential to appreciate even more.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.” 

This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Order the report here $29.95

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.  I never thought of that.  I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 start again and those that continue to offer opportunity.  This powerful profit wave has begun. I made it and am glad you did too.  Even more I look forward to the next 17 years and sharing how to have more than enough money for the rest of your life.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, the first five “Golden Rules of Investing” and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and that can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee to cancel your subscription and refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep the golden rules of investing you have received and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Order the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”  $29.95

Subscribe to Pi and save $102 (Pi is priced at $299 per year but we have an introductory discount available now; only $197 for the first year), plus received the “50 Golden Rules of Investing” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” report” free.

Save $131.95.   Subscribe to the Pi for $197.

Gary

(1)  WSJ Real Estate Moving on up

(2)   The Giant Retirement Community That Explains Where Americans Are Moving

 

Végre nem butulok tovább


“Végre nem butulok tovább” is Hungarian for “I’ve finally stopped getting dumber.”  This is the epitaph on the headstone in Budapest of Paul Erdös, the world’s most prolific mathematician.  See below, three steps I take to stop my investing from being dumb and dumber.

Erdos

Erdös wrote this, his own epitaph, so I am confident that he was wise.  I believe this because in each of the 47 years of  global investing, the most important lessons I have learned are about how much I do not know.  I believe, with luck, after 50 years of investing I’ll truly know that I know nothing.  Only then can I, maybe, become a great investor.

Recently I met with a group of experienced investment managers.  There were two points upon which we agreed:

“There is always something we do not know!”

Risk is our partner for better or for worse!”

Since investing always creates some chance, we are lucky to have geniuses like Erdös who come into the world.  We can use simple logic to apply their advanced thinking in a way that makes our investing better.

For example, Erdös and another mathematician, Alfred Rényi, published theories about a type of math called “Combinatorics”.

Here is the definition of Combinatorics: “Given a positive integer n and a probability value 0 \leq p \leq 1, define the graph G(n,p) to be the undirected graph on n vertices whose edges are chosen as follows. For all pairs of vertices v,w there is an edge (v,w) with probability p”. 

Just thinking about combinatorics makes my head spin!  I do not have a clue what this means.  Yet when we use a telephone, computer, electricity, buy food or fly in an airplane, we are taking advantage of combinatorics.

We may not understand the math behind combinatorics, but the civilization that supports us does.  Companies use it in many big projects.  Airlines figure out the best way to maximize the space for the most number of passengers to increase profit per takeoff.  This requires the program to not only figure out the best fit in the space but also in the budget.  Combinatorics is used in computer science for programming and algorithm construction.

I am in awe of those who have mathematical genius.  They make math seem so simple.  It is said, Archimedes discovered the principles of geometry by using his fingernails to trace figures on his oily skin after emerging from his bath.

Yet there is a trade off.  Erdös collaborated with more people than any other mathematician in history.   However, his every day life had to be looked after by mother and later his friends.  He put in nineteen-hour days, regularly taking Benzedrine or Ritalin, strong espresso, and caffeine tablets.  He once said “A mathematician is a machine for turning coffee into theorems.”  He never cooked or even boiled water for tea.  He was twenty-one when he buttered his first piece of bread.  He was eleven, before he tied his shoes for the first time.  His whole wardrobe fit into his one small suitcase with room to spare.

There is a lesson to be learned here.  We do not have to be geniuses to enjoy the works of genius.  We may even live a better life without being a genius, especially if we let the geniuses work for us.   Most of us are not electricians but we all know how to turn on the lights.

A specific example shows how to apply mathematical genius in investing.  Our most recent report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” revealed the 22 best value stock markets in the world and 19 ETFs that provide diversified opportunity in all 22 of these markets.  I gained this information from the mathematical genius of Michael Keppler – Keppler Asset Management.

EWA chart

Five year chart for iShares MSCI Australia. Click on image to enlarge.

However when I combine Keppler’s math with the math of the TradeStops’ Smart Trailing Stop 2.0 I gain even more insights into my investments.

For example TradeStops recently sent a Stop Alert on the ETF that covers Australia, (one of the 22 good value markets).

The ETF is the iShares MSCI Australia  ETF (symbol EWA).  This fund has a very low volatility quotient of  14.04%, so the share is not expected to bounce around much.  The Smart Trailing Stop 2.0 is a unique way to use trailing stops because its algorithm uses a best price as a basis for creating the stop rather than on any specific purchase price.

In the case of iShares MSCI Australia  ETF TradeStops best price was around $26 a share.  With a 14.o4% VQ, the stop price is $22.75.  When I looked at this share, the price was $22.46.  TradeStops had already given a sell signal because the price had fallen below the stopped price.  The fund has already corrected by more than it was expected to correct in the normal course of business.  This means that it has moved further than VQ from the recent high close as detected by the STS 2.0 algorithm.

Just because a stock has a current STS 2.0 status of Stopped Out does that mean we shouldn’t buy it?  A STS 2.0 status of Stopped Out is just telling us that the stock has already corrected more than what would normally be expected of it.

One of the golden rules of investing is look for good value, high quality stocks with rising earnings and increasing attention from the market.  The stopped out status simply tells us that there is something we do not know because the shares are high value, but the price is falling rather than rising.

There is a third mathematical genius I bring into my investing armory, my investment adviser, ENR Asset Management.

Keppler mathematics helps me zero in on good value markets.  TradeStops helps me manage the behavior gap that will impact the good value investments I make.  Human nature leads us to sell our winners short and hold our losers too long.  TradeStops helps me hold my winners longer and sell my losers sooner.

The information from both Keppler and TradeStops is impersonal.  Their math applies to all.

ENR, as an investment adviser, adds the personal touch and helps me decide which of the good value investments (stopped or not) makes sense for my own personal situation.

I am not sure if I am not still getting dumber.  If it requires an epitaph to do so, then this is good.  I do know that I am increasingly aware that there is always something in the investments I make that I do not know.  By using the mathematics of these three geniuses brings me closer to the truth and protects me from disobeying another golden rule of investing.

“Don’t fall in love with a stock…the feeling is never mutual.”

Gary

Smart Trailing Stops


“Where would the world be like if Euclid had been able to exchange ideas with Albert Einstein or Pythagoras with John Nash?”

See how this question created a powerful investing strategy that can help make sure that you always have enough.

Pythagoras

Pythagoras

Euclid, Pythagoras, Einstein and Nash were four of the greatest mathematicians in history.   They were of different eras.  Euclid and Pythagoras were great, great grandfathers of math.  Einstein and Nash, lived much later.  The latter surely were influenced by the earlier math geniuses, but what might have happened had they all been able to huddle in the same room unleashing a torrent of brilliant formulas, theorems/proofs/ideas that could be used in the economic world?

The benefits to humanity could be untold.

The idea of getting mathematical geniuses together led to a benefit for us as investors trying to cut through the fog of rapid change and a financial industry that is integrity challenged.

Euclid

Euclid

The idea of combing the brilliance of more than one math expert  started me thinking about how I find good value equity investments by following the mathematical analysis of Michael Keppler.  Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked him for over 20 years.  Michael continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Major Stock Market Strategy.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short ups and downs.

My latest report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reviews 10 good value developed markets and 12 good value emerging markets.  According to Keppler’s analyses, an equally-weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance in each of these sectors.

That report recommends dollar cost averaging into 19 ETFs, each investing in the MSCI Index of one of these markets.

einstein

Einstein

Another mathematical approach I have added to my investing armory is TradeStops created and operated by Richard Smith, a math PhD. who has created algorithms that set a Volatility Quotient (VQ) judging how much each share in its data base might rise or fall.   The VQ is used to provide suggested trailing stops.

john nash

John Nash

Thinking of  Euclid, Pythagoras. Einstein and Nash, I asked myself, “What if I combined Keppler’s analysis with Dr. Smith’s TradeStops?

This would help me and my readers using double the mathematical logic to choose when to buy and sell good value investments.

To test this theory, I used TradeStops to measure ETFs that are invested in Keppler Good Value Markets.  Two of the samples I used were iShares MSCI Germany (symbol EWG) and IShares China Large-Cap (Symbol FXI).

A part of the long term strategic trading strategy I use is to invest in low fee, diversified Index ETFs. This simplifies the search for value because it focuses research into simple, easy lumps.  These two ETFs represent investments into two of the largest, most dynamic economies in the world.

The beauty in this approach is that all we have to know is that these are large, dynamic, good value markets  You & I do not have to know much about Germany or China.  You do not have to know anything about any of the shares in these markets or how the stock markets work or are currently moving or anything like that.

What you do know is that the markets are huge players in the global scheme of things and that mathematically now is a good time to invest in them.

We’ll look at why Germany (if a good value market) below but let’s compare China first because it is the world’s second largest economy (maybe even the largest).

The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (symbol FXI) seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of large-capitalization Chinese equities that trade on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The fund generally invests 90% or more of its assets in securities in an index that tracks the performance of the 50 largest companies (that are available to international investors) in the Chinese Equity Market.

A comparison of US versus Chinese Stock Market indexes gives an example of lump research and how to spot good value, low cost, diversified portfolios that offer maximum potential for profit as they reduce risk.

China has long been the world’s largest nation in terms of population.  Its economy has been growing faster than most other large nations.  In February 2011 it formally overtook Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy.  Given China’s higher economic growth rate, it has probably overtaken the US as the world’s largest economy, though statistics have not yet caught up with this fact.

China is one of the world’s top exporters and is attracting record amounts of foreign investment.  In turn, it is investing billions of dollars abroad.  Yet when compared to US shares, Chinese share prices are cheap.

China Stock Market Ratios.  Price to Book 1.61.   Price to Earnings 11.1.  Dividend 2.85.
USA Stock Market Ratios.   Price to Book 2.86.   Price to Earnings 20.0.   Dividend 1.99.

Chinese shares cost much less, compared to the values and earnings, than US shares.  Chinese shares (surprising for an emerging economy) also pay much higher dividends as well.

This is why according to Keppler’s analysis the Chinese Market is good value.

Then I looked at these iShare ETFs via TradeStops.

The iShare Germany ETF (EWG) has a 15.07% VQ.  This means that this share is a low risk market as it is not likely to fall more than 15.07%.   The trailing stop price of this ETF share is currently $26.01.  The price is currently over $30.  If the shares of this ETF drop to $26.01, TradeStops would recommend us to lock in our profits and later recommend when it’s time to invest again.

The China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has a higher VQ of 17.68%.  This is still quite low risk for an emerging market.  The trailing stop price is  $43.39.   The price is currently over $51.  If the shares of the China Large-Cap ETF drops to  $43.39, TradeStops would recommend we lock in our profits and later recommend when its time to invest again.

TradeStops uses a new algorithm called “Smart Trailing Stops 2.0” (STS 2.0).  STS 2.0 is a step up from the typical trailing stop practice.  The difference is that STS 2.0 uses an automatically-detected “Best High Price from the Past” rather than using your entry date and entry price as the initial point from which to trail the stop.

A best high is a better indicator of value than your investing price because it relies on the dynamics of the market instead of our personal investing activity.  This is a better way to stop from buying high and selling low.

STS 2.0 sometimes “stops out” a share sooner than we might expect but having a best high, rather our investment price as the prime calculator, is a huge advance.

Dr. Smith’s smart trailing stops have always been based upon the concept of the normal expected volatility range for a stock  (the VQ).  Smart Trailing Stops 2.0 adds the benefit of automatically identifying the best high closing price from which to trail the stop.

This is valuable information!  The fact that the STS 2.0 algorithm stops out a share is a red flag that the stock is not behaving normally as it has recently suffered a relatively severe correction.  This gives us an early warning.

This allows us to maximize profits without leaving a good value platform and without having to know about or track any of the specific underlying shares!

Together, the combined mathematical expertise of Keppler and Smith give us a new powerful investing dynamic.  We can be intelligent and clever by letting mathematical wisdom aim us at good value investments and then protect our profits with mathematically sound trailing stops.

If I were given a day to spend with Pythagoras, Euclid, Einstein and Nash, I doubt that I would gain a thing, except maybe a headache.  I am no mathematician!

I am, however, an investor with almost 50 years experience and know that the best investing strategies are based on numbers rather than stories.  The most profitable long term investments are made with logic rather than emotion.

Keppler’s and Smith’s hard efforts combined with technology mean that all of us can gain from their mathematical wisdom, when it comes to investing.  All we have to do is be able to turn on our computers and let the numbers shape our investing for us.

Learn how to use TradeStops here.

Learn more about why and the best way to invest in Keppler’s good value markets below.

Gary

The Ultimate Investing Secret

The ultimate investing secret is the simple fact that investment opportunities come and go in cycles.  

Because we have been watching the trends for decades, we spot many distortions  we saw decades ago as they create repeat opportunities.  For example, our 1986 report “The Silver Dip” showed readers how to turn $250 into over $45,000 in a year.   When we spotted the same repeat distortion in silver’s price in 2015, we issued our report “Silver Dip 2015”.   Those who acted on the report made as much as 200% in 2016.

There is another phenomenal distortion that has been building for a number of years.   Here is how I (and you can as well) am cashing in on this trend.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.

Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Now I see those circumstances headed our way again.

The Dow Jones Industrial recently soared past 20,000 and reached an all time high.   So why aren’t average investors all rich?   There are several answers.  First, even though the Dow has peaked, for the last 17 years the US stock market has been in a bear trend.  You’ll see why in a moment.  Another reason why the investors have not done so well is because of currency loss.

One final reason why profits have not been so good.  Someone, probably someone you trust, has been stealing from you.

One of the biggest obstacles in profiting from the upcoming circumstances has been and remains the financial system.  The reality is that banks and brokers have been structuring investments that are sure to lose.  They sell you on these investments and then another division of the very same bank (or broker) that recommended the investment, bets against you.   The bank knows that the investment is toxic.  To add insult to injury, many of these same institutions cheat you on the way in and the way out (when you buy and sell a share) of the bad investment.  Most brokers and bankers are interested in your money making them rich, not in helping increase your wealth.

Three Patterns Create 50% profits.

Despite the predators on Wall Street who are waiting to take big gouges out of your savings and wealth, equities are still the best place to invest for the long term.  This chart from the 24 page Keppler Asset Management Asset Allocation Review shows that over the past 80+ years equities have dramatically outperformed other types of investments.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

Good investments require a relentless search for value.   Your investments have to be good enough to reap an outstanding profit even after the parasites siphon off their part.

To take advantage of the once every 17 year circumstances, I chose to track Keppler Asset Management who continually researches developed and emerging markets globally.  Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisors.  Keppler compares the value of each share in each market based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  From this study of monumental amounts of data Keppler develops a Good Value Stock Market Strategies.  The analysis is based on long term, rational, mathematical facts and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

From Keppler I learned that market timing is not the way to get these high profits.  Another graphic from the Keppler Asset Allocation Review explains why.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

A dollar invested 88 years ago in Treasury bills rose to $20.58.  The same dollar invested in U.S. stocks over the 88 years grew to be was worth $4,677, UNLESS you missed the best 43 months.  Literally all of the the Dow’s growth in 1,056 months came in 43 of those months.   Your odds have been one in 24, better than roulette perhaps, but not good enough.  Plus even after these odds, the predators are going to take their cut.  You have to ask, “Am I that good at timing?”

The better alternative to timing is to invest in long term indexing based on value.  Long term strategic investing in market indices reduces the amount of trading.  Low trading activity is important because trades are where investors are most vulnerable to predatory tactics.

A part of the long term strategic trading is to invest in low fee diversified Country Index ETFs.  This simplifies the search for value because it focuses research into lumps.

A comparison of US versus German stock market indexes gives an example of lump research and you can create good value, low cost, diversified portfolios that offer maximum potential for profit as they reduce risk.

Keppler’s research shows that Germany’s stock market is a good value market.  Keppler lumps all the shares (or at least 85% of the shares) into the calculations.  There is no attempt to select any one specific share.  Keppler’s research shows that the US stock market index (a lump of about 85% of all the US shares) is now a poor value.

Germany has the world’s fourth largest economy.  The country is the third largest exporter in the world and has recorded some of the highest trade surplus in the world making it the biggest capital exporter globally.  Yet German shares have been overlooked.  German share prices are good value.

For example, recently the German Stock Market had a relative price to book value ratio of  .78,  a relative price earnings ratio of  0.87 and a relative dividend yield of 1.12.  The US Stock Market has a much higher relative price to book value ratio of 1.29, a relative price earnings ratio of 1.07 and a relative dividend yield of 0.81.  German shares cost much less, compared to the values and earnings.  German shares pay much higher dividends as well.

Keppler predicts that the US Stock Market (which is ranked as a sell market by Keppler) will have an annual index gain for the next five years of  3.1% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 21.7%.  The same calculations for the German Market predicts an average annual index gain over the next five years of 7.5% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 47.3%.

Which would you rather buy,  a 47.3% return sold for 78 cents on the dollar or a 21.7% return sold for $1.29 on the dollar?

You can forget about any specific share in the US or Germany and invest into an index (in this case the Morgan Stanley Capital Index) which represents about 85% of all the shares traded on the exchange.

You can invest in ETFs that passively invest in all the shares of the index in stock markets that offer good value.  iShares investment company for example has  an ETF that invests in 85% of the shares traded on Wall Street.

ishres

This ETF is called the iShares USA (symbol EUSA) and in this example rose from $22.91 to $43.40 or 89% in the past five years.

iShares also offers an ETF that invests in about 85% of the stocks listed on the German Stock Exchange (Symbol EWG).  EWG rose  from $19.70 to $28.13  or 42% in the past five years.

ishares

Keppler’s lump research shows that Germany is a good value market.   One simple (even very small) investment in iShares Germany MSCI Index ETF gives you a portfolio  of almost all the shares traded on Germany’s largest stock exchange in Frankfurt.  This ETF is a share traded on the New York Stock Exchange.  The ETF invests in 85% of the shares in Germany.  This ETF is a passive fund that does not try to outperform the growth of the German Stock Market.  The managers simply track the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index.  The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the German Index which is composed of the stocks of 54 different German companies and covers about 85% of all the German equities.  Germany’s ten largest companies compose about 60% of the index.  These ten companies are:  BAYER (Health Care) composes 9.91% of the index – SIEMENS (Industrials) 7.89% – DAIMLER (Consumer Discretionary) 7.04% – BASF (Materials)  6.81% – ALLIANZ (Financials) 6.65% – SAP STAMM (Info Tech) 5.69% – DEUTSCHE TELEKOM (Telecom Srvcs) 4.46% – DEUTSCHE BANK NAMEN  (Financials) 3.66%  – VOLKSWAGEN VORZUG (Consumer Discretionary) 3.18% – BMW STAM (Consumer Discretionary)  3.15%.

You lump your research.  You lump your investment.  This makes it easy to capture the powerful economic circumstances that are unfolding now.

Just investing in Germany is not enough.  There are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.   Plus there are 11 good value emerging markets.  With even a couple of thousand dollars you can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

Investing in many stock markets through ETFs gives you opportunity in the second pattern of the falling US dollar.  Preserving the purchasing power of your savings and wealth requires currency diversification.

The strength of the US dollar over recent years is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   In 1980, the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern has been growing, is seriously overdue and could create up to 50% extra profit if you start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

For example because of fears about the euro, EWG, the German ETF dropped 9 percent in 12 months.  These declines are created by currency concerns.  When the euro regains strength, the shares have the potential to appreciate even more.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but includes links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hot the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

I look forward to the next 17 years and sharing how to have more than enough money for the rest of your life.

Gary