Tag Archive | "TFS Corp."

Stock Market for April Fool’s


Since this is April Fool’s Day it seems a good time to reflect on the importance of value investing and how stock market traders can fool investors.  Here is an excerpt from a value update in our Purposeful investing Course.

A lesson in value.

sandalwood

Share chart of TFS Corporation at www.finance.yahoo.com

In early 2014 we issued a report “A Most Valuable Investment” at this site (1).

The report said:  We are continually updating our research on sandalwood investing. We have added a business that is scheduled to earn $3.57 billion Australian dollars over the next 15 years (its share price is projected to rise 1000% in the next decade) into our Sandalwood Investing Report. You can research this business on your own (the company is called TFS Corp. and it is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange) or to save you endless hours and numerous calls to Australia you can order the report at Amazon.com.

TFS Corp. shares were $1.19 per share at that time and the price skyrocketed to over $2.00 per share but (as the chart above shows) has fluctuated wildly since then.

In February 2017, three Australian analysts (2) in Feb all maintain buy recommendation with expectations of share price over $3.

Then in March, the company rebranded and changed its name to Quintis as it expanded its focus from growing trees to marketing its product to the perfume, pharmaceutical and skincare trade.  The company controls around 80 per cent of the world’s rare Indian sandalwood and because of its rarity there is a lot of fraud in the industry.  Quintis wants a brand that assures consumers that the products are sustainable and ethical.

Natural resource companies have long been the targets of stock manipulation and the TFC (now Quintis) shares are no exception.  They are one of the most shorted shares on the Australian stock exchange… one reason for the volatility .

During the name change one big short selling form took advantage of the confusion and produced a report that was sure to create volatility.

A Barron article “Short Seller Glaucus Takes Aim At TFS, Says Shares Are Worthless – TFS Fires Back, Reiterates Guidance.”(3) tells the story.  In a report issued Wednesday, the U.S. research firm criticized TFS – which this week changed its name to Quintis – for having a “Ponzi-like structure.” The Perth-based company says it’s the world’s biggest manager of commercial sandalwood plantations. Indian sandalwood is used in incense, perfumes and traditional Chinese medicine.

The shares plummeted.

Quintis responded: ” The report is a self-serving report by a shorter of the stock in an attempt to drive TFS’s share price down for their own financial gain.  There are substantial and egregious inaccuracies littered throughout the report which could have been avoided had the report’s author contacted the Company”.

I checked with the analyst who helped me originally assess the value of this company.  He wrote:  “The Glaucus report isn’t worth the paper it’s written on in my view. TFC  (now QIN) have put out a detailed rebuttal which appears valid. Nonetheless, Glaucus did a great job of launching a bear raid, with superb timing.”

Then the founder and CEO of Quntis (TFS) resigned and is working with a third party to launch a takeover.

The shares rose on this news.  Fools were slaughtered by this sideways move.

The key to value investing, is to spot good value and buy for the long term.  Do not get caught up in the short time economic news.  Share prices are manipulated everywhere, especially with volatile shares.

Good investing requires three assets; comfort, value and time.  In my investment with TFS Corp, I have comfort due to my understanding and knowledge of Sandalwood.  When I invested, my analysis was based on financial news that suggested that over ten years the shares could rise to be worth $10 per share.  In the $1.20 range, they were great value.  I made the investment knowing that there is always something I don’t know, but with a ten year time frame, the true underlying value will direct the ultimate share price. I rarely look at the fluctuations.

Risk is always with us and is our friend when we use math to see through the economic noise and invest in mathematically based financial data.  The data has not changed and suggests that the shares are worth over $3 per share now.  When they sell in the US $1 range, that’s good news!

Gary

(1)  Sandalwood, A Most Valuable Investment

(2) Quintis.com.au: Broker research

(3) blogs.barrons.com: Short seller Glaucus takes aim at Quintis

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll Really Cash In Next Time”

Periods of good investing performance are always followed by periods that are bad.

Think about this…

The US dollar has risen over 50% above its lows of 2011.   The greenback is at its highest level versus the Chinese yuan since 2008.  India’s rupee is at an all-time low against the buck.  Other Asian currencies, the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit have plunged to depths not seen since the financial crisis of 1997-98.  The euro, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar have crashed.  In other words, the US dollar is in a period of high performance.

What happens is the greenback is in a free fall.  Smart investors can cash in huge profits.

Yet there is a bigger economic problem that can ruin the purchasing power of your cash faster than you can imagine.

While the dollar was rising non US governments and businesses accumulated almost ten trillion dollars of debt denominated in US dollars.

The terror in this debt is that it acts as a destructive and very rapid financial amplifier.  Dollar debt is like a short position.  When the dollar rises, borrowers scramble to short-cover their position by selling their own currency.  This defeats the purpose of their hedging as it increases the strength of the dollar.  So they short even more.  Those short sales create an upward dollar spiral.  The buck rises higher and higher, based entirely on fear and speculation.

When that leverage energy is spent the currency stalls and plummets out of control… like now.

The last time we saw such a upwards spiral was from 1980 to 1985.  The dollar rose 50% in those five years.

Guess what?

Then it collapsed 50% in just two years.

The US dollar is in a similar position as at the beginning of Ronald Reagan’s first term in the 1970s.  This was a time of widening budget deficits, rising interest rates and a US dollar surge.  This created a problem then, as it does now, and creates huge opportunity for those in the know.

The rise of the dollar, the debt and the US stock market creates an especially dangerous conflict because Donald Trump wants to balance America’s trade.  A stronger dollar makes this impossible because it pushes up the cost of US material, US labor and US exports.

The overpriced dollar, the poor value of the US stock market (compared to other markets) create a dollar crisis and a special opportunity for you and me as investors.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.  I had wished I could have invested more.

Now those circumstances are here again.

And I have…

invested more… a lot more… betting again the dollar.

The swollen stock market prices, huge dollar denominated debt and weakening dollar are three patterns that can create a fast 50% profit.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.

There is a way to accumulate good value equities denominated in the following currencies of special strength, including the Euro, Canadian dollar, Singapore dollar, British pound, New Taiwan dollar and Chinese yuan.

The report reveals 21 special non dollar equities that have the greatest opportunity for safety and appreciation.

I kept the report short and simple, but include links to 153 pages of global stock market and asset allocation analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to inexpensively accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hit the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep the report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

Or get this report free.  Subscribe to the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) described below.

 

 

 

The Risk of Leverage


There is reward and risk in leverage.  Let’s look at the potential of investing in sandalwood investment to better understand this fact.  There are two ways to invest in sandalwood.

One approach is to buy a plot of sandalwood tress and have TFS Corp manage the grove for you.

The other approach (that I use and recommend if this type of investment fits your plans and circumstances) is to invest in the shares of TFS Corp (symbol TFC-AX). This is the only commercial sandalwood plantation that has shares offered on a market (The Australian bourse) that I have found.  In January 2014, we recommended investing in these shares.  The price was $1.19 per share at that time.

TFS Corp

Chart from www.finance.yahoo.com

Shortly after the recommendation the share price scorched up to $2.25.  Then the price plummeted to $1.29.   Talk about a roller coaster!  The share price is very volatile.

A reader who has been tracking TFS and the idea of leveraging investments sent this note that stimulated me to write this message.

I would like to encourage you to study the idea of buying a grove of Sandalwood from TFS Corp utilizing leverage by borrowing the AUD with USD’s.   There is a good play on the stock as well.  TFS says that their harvest this year will be ’10x’ last years.

Here are some thoughts on why I would NOT recommend leverage in a grove or for TFS Corp shares.

The first idea, to borrow money to own a grove that TFS Corp manages, has three difficulties.  First, few banks (especially non Australian banks) would accept the grove as collateral.  Second, the nature of grove investments is many years of loss before a big profit comes at harvest.  Leverage would most likely come from borrowing short and investing long.  That is always a bad idea.

Leveraging an investment as volatile as TFS Corp shares also has greater than normal risk.  TFS shares have a volatility quotient over 40.  This means that share prices can swing 40% up or down in the normal course of business.  Shifts in parity between the US and Australian dollar can increase this swing.

Take, for example, an investment of $50,000 in TFS Corp shares.  Let’s say a broker would offer margin at a loan to value ratio of 50% (doubtful, but perhaps).  This provides another $50,000 to invest so $100,000 would be invested in shares with a $50,000 loan.

This doubles the investing power.  This also doubles the risk.

If a broker would allow this much leverage, (I am not sure they would), $100,000 invested at the current price of $1.60 buys 62,500 shares.

If the price rises 40% (.64 cents) to $2.20, the 62,500 shares are worth $140,000.  The loan payoff is $50,000 (plus interest) and approximately $90,000 is left.  The investment was only $50,000 so the profit is about $40,000!

Wow… that’s great.  Right?  Yes it is, but first, let’s look at the downside.

The price can drop 40% instead, just in the normal course of business.  A .64 cent drop brings the share price to .96 cents.  The 62,500 shares are worth $60,000.   The loan is $50,000. The loss is $40,000 and at the loan to value ratio of 50% , the broker wants $40,000 added to the account.  In fact the broker would have asked for more almost as soon as there was any significant price drop, which is why the margin would be hard to obtain in the first place.

When we recommended this share in 2o14, we stated that this was a long term investment with a long term ten year view.  The potential at that time was a 1,000% rise over ten years, but with significant ups and downs.  The volatility prohibits the practicality of normal stop losses or risk protection tools.  This is a win or lose all, long term speculation in its truest form.

I believe in the future of sandalwood.  TFS Corp is the only logical way I know of to invest.  However, each investor needs to make sure that the nature and volatility quotient of each investment makes suits their overall financial strategy.

When making your plan and investments, if you use leverage, make sure you weigh the risks as well as rewards before you take up any loans.

Gary

Protect Your Wealth From Mistakes

Here are three steps to multi currency profits.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make you smarter than the smartest man in the world.

sir issac newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market.  His comment was “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence in seeking value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why two of the three exports I use in my Purposeful investing course (Pi) and mathematicians not economists.  I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline in our Pi course.

Use math, not emotion to protect your wealth.

There are time tested mathematical systems that can help you know when to take profits that maximizes gains and minimizes loss.

These systems help you seek value but also create disciplined exit strategies because one of the toughest decisions most of us have is to know when to sell a rising or falling share.

Human nature makes it harder to let winners run, than to cut loses.

Let’s look at a real time example of how purposeful investing strategies can increase profit.  In this real example, in 2002 Merri and I invested in Jyske Bank shares.  We were visiting the bank with a group of readers.  We had been in Copenhagen for several days and took the group out to the bank’s headquarters in the small charming village of Silkeborg.  We visited the CEO (who has been a friend for many years) in his new modest offices, saw the bank’s new currency trading room and visited with the Jyske Invest Fund Managers.  What impressed us was the conservative and balanced thinking throughout the bank.  There were no staff limos or corporate jets.  The CEO’s office was small with walls of glass so staff could see him at work.  The bank worked for and talked about the long term view.

TFC Corp

Jyske Bank share price since September 2002.

We invested in Jyske shares at DKK96.50 on 2nd September 2002. We sold half in April 2006 at DKK352.50.  The share price of the remaining shares we hold have never dropped below our purchase price.  Today the share price is over DKK300 again.

Could I have done better with a mathematical system?  I asked Dr. Richard Smith, CEO of Tradestops.com,  who has a PhD in mathematics and is one of the experts we use in our system, to see how his trailing stops strategy would have increased my profit.

It turns out I could have done better.  Much better.   Here is the chart of the trailing stops that his strategy would have given me had I been using it.

magci calculator

Click on image to enlarge.

Let’s look at three scenarios to show the difference in profit between using simple buy and hold with no stops, my system of taking back the original investment and the Trailing Stops strategy.  For simplicity sake, I am not including dollar to Danish kroner fluctuations.  The forex fluctuations would make a difference if calculated in US dollars performance but we’ll analyze that element of the invest in another message.

Scenario #1: DKK100,000 becomes worth DKK350,158.  Profit is DKK241,880 in 15 years.  In this scenario we assume a DKK100,000 investment.  The investment is at DKK96.50 so 1036 shares were purchased.  The assumption in this scenario is that all the shares have been held.  The price of today’s quote (April 23, 2015) is DKK330.  The value is DKK341,880 on DKK100,000 invested.

Scenario #2: DKK100,000 becomes worth DKK357,679. Profit is DKK247,840 in 15 years.  Assume again, DKK100,000 investment.  1036 shares were purchased at DKK96.50.  In this scenario, (what I actually did), 285 shares when the price reached DKK352.50.  This returned my original investment appx. DKK100,000.  The remaining 751 shares at 330 (4/22/2015 price) are still held so are worth DKK 247,840.  This represents a total profit of  247,840.  This is a little better than keeping all the shares,  except the shares sold in 2006 created new opportunity potential for nine years so this scenario is actually much better than the numbers appear.

Scenario #3: DKK 100,000 becomes worth DKK1,156,069.  Profit is DKK1,056,069 in 15 years.  As in the other two scenarios there was a DKK100,000 investment.  1036 shares were purchased at DKK96.50.

Dr. Smith, backtracked to and see what the system would have done would with this share.

Richard sent the exact dates with buy and sell numbers:

Exit @ 325.50 on 6/13/2006.  All the shares are sold bringing in DKK337,218.

Buy @ 321.98 on 10/9/2006.  The DKK337,218 buys 1047 shares.

Exit @ 404 on 6/8/2007.   This sale grosses DKK422,988

Buy @ 118.5 on 3/20/2009.  The DKK422,988 buys 3,569 shares

Exit @ 170 on 8/10/2011. This sale grosses DKK606,730

Buy @ 173.40 on 2/1/2012.  The DKK606,730 buys 3,499 shares

Still in @ 330.4 on 4/22/2015. The share value at this time is DKK1,156,069.

Wow, what a difference if one followed and used the trailing stops.  The trailing stops and re buy signals increase the investment by 11 times versus 3.5 times in the other scenario.

The Jyske shares have a volatility quotient at this time of 15.5% so would create a sell signal at around DKK287 at this time.

These scenarios are based on approximations and do not include trading costs, management fees, etc. so the real money in the bank would not be exactly this amount.  For our analytical purposes this study suggests that trailing stops help us protect the successes we gain in spurts.

This type of math creates great discipline so you know not to sell too soon and give away profit but, also know not to hold too long and give away returns already made.

Yet using trailing stops only works when you have good shares to begin.

To easily spot good value, we use Keppler Asset Management  as our first source of data.  We follow the analysis of our friend, Michael Keppler.

Michael Keppler is an expert on stock market value and I have worked with him for nearly 30 years because the best way to create long term multi currency investment profits is to get good value in the shares you buy.

Michael continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each major stock market’s history.  From this he develops his Good Value Major Stock Market Strategy, an analysis that is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short ups and downs.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Keppler.  In my opinion, Michael is one of the best market statisticians in the world.

Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds. In January, his company, Keppler Asset Management, was, for the third consecutive year, named Best Fund Company in the Fund Specialists’ category by Capital, a leading German business magazine.  Keppler’s firm was one of only six out of 100 companies tested that received the highest five-star rating based on an independent evaluation of fund quality, management, and customer service by Feri Rating & Research and Steria Mummert Consulting.

Yet you have not heard about Keppler nor can you hire his services because he only serves mutual funds and institutional investors for investors in Europe.

This is why I want to introduce you to our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) with this special offer.

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Importance of Investing Purpose


Here is an example of how value investments can be safe, profitable and have purpose.

Merri and I care about the sustainability of essential oils.  Aromatherapy has become such a fast growing way to help maintain natural health that many essential oils have become very expensive and the root plant has become threatened.  Sandalwood is such a oil.  When I read that sandalwood was so threatened that there were smuggling wars over it, I began researching for ways to support sandalwood sustainability.

I found a way with the TFS company in Australia.

On February 13, 2014, I wrote: 

“Sandalwood’s place within science and scent make it interesting as a medicine and an investment.”

Sandalwood is used in perfume, fine furniture and carving, religious ceremonies but has extra demand potential due to its great medicinal qualities.  Sandalwood oil has been used traditionally by herbalists to treat skin diseases, acne, dysentery, gonorrhea, and a number of other conditions.  In Traditional Chinese Medicine, sandalwood oil is considered an excellent sedating agent.  Sandalwood is already accepted as a medicine in Germany.  As  health care costs rise… the demand for sandalwood is most likely to increase as well.

The research found that the only public company in the world with sandalwood plantations was in Australia, TFS Corp. Ltd.  I also saw that there was potential for 1,000% appreciation in the next ten years.

As the chart below from finance.yahoo.com shows, the TFS Corp. Ltd. share price was $1.06 at that time (Feb 13, 2014).  Over the next eight months, this price skyrocketed to $2.22, a 107% gain.  Wow!  Was that investment good!  This could make a person feel good, supporting a belief and doubling one’s money.

tfs corp

TFS Corp Ltd (symbol TFS) chart at www.finance.yahoo.com

I warned back then, in 2014, that this type of investments was not without uncertainty.   This is a volatile long term investment.

As the chart shows, I was also correct about this.  Since that first message about sandalwood, the price has been as high as $2.22 and as low as $1.11 and is currently around $1.50.

In this last two years, this investment in shares of TFS Corp has more than doubled, then lost half and is now in between.

How have I reacted as the shares have moved?  Not at all.  I have not cared about the volatility because this investment was made to support a worthy cause, was chosen for its good long term potential and has the potential, sometime in the next decade, to really skyrocket.  This is such a volatile, speculative investment that one should ignore the ups and downs and not create a stop loss.  This is a lose or win big investment.  So far the price has risen almost 50% since our first message about this share.  Tomorrow this could double or dramatically fall.

What makes an investment in TFS Corp. safe is when the investment is very long term and is a small part of an equally weighted globally diversified good value portfolio.

This is how I add purpose in my portfolio.

How to Learn More about Sandalwood Investing

Most brokers can buy Australian shares for their clients and should be able to purchase TFS corp. shares. You can research this business on your own (the company is called TFS Corp. and it is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange) or to save you endless hours and numerous calls to Australia you can order the report at Amazon.com.

Screen shot 2014-01-28 at 5.28.13 PM

Sandalwood Investing Report

Gary

We’ll look at TFS Corp and other sustainable resource investments at the International Club retreat this August.  If you plan to attend, do not delay as there are only a few spaces left.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll Really Cash In Next Time”

Periods of good investing performance are always followed by periods that are bad.

Think about this…

The US dollar has risen over 50% above its lows of 2011.   The greenback is at its highest level versus the Chinese yuan since 2008.  India’s rupee is at an all-time low against the buck.  Other Asian currencies, the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit have plunged to depths not seen since the financial crisis of 1997-98.  The euro, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar have crashed.  In other words, the US dollar is in a period of high performance.

What happens is the greenback is in a free fall.  Smart investors can cash in huge profits.

Yet there is a bigger economic problem that can ruin the purchasing power of your cash faster than you can imagine.

While the dollar was rising non US governments and businesses accumulated almost ten trillion dollars of debt denominated in US dollars.

The terror in this debt is that it acts as a destructive and very rapid financial amplifier.  Dollar debt is like a short position.  When the dollar rises, borrowers scramble to short-cover their position by selling their own currency.  This defeats the purpose of their hedging as it increases the strength of the dollar.  So they short even more.  Those short sales create an upward dollar spiral.  The buck rises higher and higher, based entirely on fear and speculation.

When that leverage energy is spent the currency stalls and plummets out of control… like now.

The last time we saw such a upwards spiral was from 1980 to 1985.  The dollar rose 50% in those five years.

Guess what?

Then it collapsed 50% in just two years.

The US dollar is in a similar position as at the beginning of Ronald Reagan’s first term in the 1970s.  This was a time of widening budget deficits, rising interest rates and a US dollar surge.  This created a problem then, as it does now, and creates huge opportunity for those in the know.

The rise of the dollar, the debt and the US stock market creates an especially dangerous conflict because Donald Trump wants to balance America’s trade.  A stronger dollar makes this impossible because it pushes up the cost of US material, US labor and US exports.

The overpriced dollar, the poor value of the US stock market (compared to other markets) create a dollar crisis and a special opportunity for you and me as investors.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.  I had wished I could have invested more.

Now those circumstances are here again.

And I have…

invested more… a lot more… betting again the dollar.

The swollen stock market prices, huge dollar denominated debt and weakening dollar are three patterns that can create a fast 50% profit.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.

There is a way to accumulate good value equities denominated in the following currencies of special strength, including the Euro, Canadian dollar, Singapore dollar, British pound, New Taiwan dollar and Chinese yuan.

The report reveals 21 special non dollar equities that have the greatest opportunity for safety and appreciation.

I kept the report short and simple, but include links to 153 pages of global stock market and asset allocation analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to inexpensively accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hit the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep the report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

Or get this report free.  Subscribe to the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) described below.

 

 

Weird Stanford Touches on Value Investing


Let’ see if we can derive some insights on value investing  from a weird Stanford touch.

Wednesday’s message What Can You Do About Pensions looked at how many pensions were screwed when the Sequoia Fund was flattened by its 30% holding in the price gouging pharma company, Valeant.  That firm’s share price dropped almost 90% in the last year.  One lesson on how to avoid this type of rip off was  to avoid the Golden Boy Syndrome.  I wrote:

Look out for hotshots and the Golden Boy Syndrome.  Having been in the business almost 50 years now, I  have seen so many kings knocked off their throne.  Anytime anyone acts as if they are doing you a favor taking your money… BEWARE!

So the New York Times article “College Admissions Shocker”(1) about Stanford University caught my attention.  Stanford University cemented its standing as the most selective institution of higher education by having a zero acceptance rate for the 2020 class from record-setting number of applications.

For example, they turned down a young lady who, at age 17, had already performed surgery, because “it wasn’t open-heart or a transplant or anything like that”.

One 15 year old applicant blamed his parents because they had earlier sued to let him begin kindergarten ahead of schedule.  “If I’d been held back a year, I would have been applying to the Stanford Class of 2021”, was his comment.

Why would a school do this?   The article says: Over recent years, Stanford administrators noticed that as the school rejected more and more comers, it received bigger and bigger donations, its endowment rising in tandem with its exclusivity, its luster, a magnet for Silicon Valley lucre.

This sounds much like the Golden Boy Syndrome to me.  Wanting something because you can’t have it is not a foundation for finding value.

But Stanford’ aloofness is not the point.  The lesson we can derive comes from the reaction of other universities.

The article goes on to outline how university administrators at other institutions were upset because their acceptance rate was too high.  One school’s reaction to create demand is:  “to send every high school senior in America who scored in the top 4 percent nationally on the SAT a complimentary spray bottle of Wharton: The Fragrance, which has a top note of sandalwood and a bottom note of crisp, freshly minted $100 bills”.

I am not sure how fragrance will enhance a school’s reputation but I am all for it because of one word… get ready for this… Sandalwood.

Those who have been reading this site for the past few years know that I am a fan of sandalwood.  A couple of year’s ago I invested in (and still hold share in) TFS Corporation, an Australian Sandalwood grower and manufacturer.

I was so enthused about TFS Corp. (Australian stock exchange symbol TFC:AU) that I co-authored with Candace Newman, the essential oil expert,  The Sandalwood Investing Report which was published and is still available at Amazon.com.  My first recommendation for this share was in a February 2014  message “A  Most Valuable Investment”.  I wrote:

A Most Valuable Investment

Click on title “A Most Valuable Investment” to read entire 2014 message.

The shares at that time  (marked with arrow) were $1.12.  Despite a bumpy ride (more on this in a moment) they were $1.69 yesterday.

TFC Corp

TFC Corporation share chart at au.finance. yahoo.com (2)

That report by the way is still available at Amazon.com. No fundamentals have changed except we have two years of extra price history on the shares.

Screen shot 2014-01-28 at 5.28.13 PM

You can get details or order the Sandalwood Investing Report at Amazon.com Sandalwood Investing Report details at Amazon.com

Yet the lesson we can gain is not really about sandalwood either.

The bigger lesson and point of this message is to remember that Golden Rule of Investing #1; “There is always something we do not know”.

I have no idea if all the top students in America being exposed to a fragrance with a hint of sandalwood will increase the demand for this rare essential oil.  That’s the point.  Everyday, there are almost infinite numbers of extremely tiny events that we will never notice or think about.  Any one of them could have huge profound impact on our lives.

Since we cannot know what the future brings, we need some other way to gain information about where we should invest.  One approach is to gain information about investing ideas with value analysis.

For example we don’t know all the forces that will impact the value of sandalwood long term, but we can look at what analysts say about the short value of TFS shares.

The analysts at capitalcube.com recently issued a report “TFS Corp. Ltd.: Gathering momentum, can it sustain its performance?” (3).

Here are some points to consider about the value of  TFS Corp. shares.

  • Australia is a good value market according to Keppler Asset Management.
  • The Australian dollar has been artificially depressed versus the US dollar so it should provide a forex profit boost.
  • The long term supply demand for sandalwood is very strong.
  • TFC-AU‘s share price performance was a -9.84% over the last 12 months. This is below its peer median but its 30-day trend in share price performance of 27.41% is better than the peer median.  This recent rising stock price may herald a change in relative share price performance.
  • TFS Corporation Ltd’s current Price/Book is at a discount of 0.89, a  good value.
  • TFC-AU‘s relatively high profit margins are burdened by relative asset inefficiency.  This means there is even more profit potential.
  • Changes in annual revenues (relative to peers) are better than the change in its earnings (relative to peers), implying the company is focused more on revenues. (reflects potential for growth).

The company’s return on assets over the past five years suggest that its relatively high operating returns are sustainable.

All of these factors suggests that shares in TFS Corp offer a good value now, but this is still a long term speculation.

TFC Corp

This relative value assessment from the capitalcube.com analysis linked below shows how the TFS Corp. share price performance is leading its sector.

Each of us should ask how much we can afford to allocate to a speculation of this nature?  This is a personal decision because we each have a unique risk tolerance.  When our risk tolerance is out of line with the risk profile of our investments, we’ll make more poor emotional decisions than wise investments.  See how to balance risks at “Risk Balance Thoughts“.

Stanford University’s “Golden Boy Syndrome” means that most people won’t get to school there, but this does not mean the school can’t provide us with some lessons.  One lesson is that even weird action, like Stanford’s zero applicant acceptance creates a ripple effect that creates a future where there is always something we cannot see and do not know.  This is why we use financial information rather than economic news to find investing value.

Gary

(1) www.nytimes.com  College Admissions Shocker

(2) https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TFC.AX

(3) http://www.capitalcube.com TFS corp gathering momentum can it sustain its performance

Why Leverage Silver ETFs

Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less?

I first spotted an opportunity in 1986.   Two short term distortions (in the price of silver and the strength of the British pound) created potential for huge profits.  I wrote in a report (called the “Silver Dip”) that told how to borrow British pounds to speculate in silver and earn over $50,000 profit.  That’s the headline I used then in 1986, “Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less”.

The report showed how to take borrow overpriced British pounds and invest the loan in under priced silver.   $250 was required to set up the loan.  No other cash was needed to borrow the pounds.

Readers who followed the report made $46,299 on the no cash investment in only one year

Then in 2015 I spotted the same distortion again.  The British pound was overvalued.  Silver was undervalued. 

I quickly issued a report… the “Silver Dip 2015” that looked at how similar conditions to 1986 had fallen into place.  The price of silver had reached a six year low.  The British pound strength was rising.  The dollar per pound rate was $1.55 per pound, exactly the same as in 1986 and the silver/gold ratio rose over 80 just as in 1986.

That report revealed the iShares Silver Trust, a silver ETF  and during the year after issuing this report, the share price rose from $13.57 per share to $19.60 in 2015.

The rise in the silver price created a nice profit.   The currency and leverage tactics within the strategy turned the nice profit into a very nice profit.

A $10,000 (6,451 British pounds) loan purchased 736 shares at $13.57.  In 2015 the shares rose to $19.60 and were worth $14,425 (up 44.25%).

Those profits were spectacular by any stretch of the imagination but turned out even better because the profits above excluded the forex profit.

In 2015-2016 , the British pound dropped almost exactly as it did 30 years ago!  The British pound fell from $1.55 per pound to $1.33 per pound.

At $1.33 per pound, the 6,451 pound loan only required $8,575 to pay back the loan.  This created an extra $1,425 forex profit.

When the opportunity appeared again last year, I updated the report to  “Silver Dip 2018”.

The 2018 report showed how the opportunity for this speculation was even better than it was in 2015.

Yet the profits have not yet arrived.  This allows me to make an amazing no-risk guaranteed offer to you.

Silver Dip 2019 includes profit calculations for 2019 and I offer you the report “Silver Dip 2019” with a year long guarantee.

“If the profits recommended in the report don’t arrive by the end of the year, I’ll give you a complete and full refund”.

That’s right if the tactic described in Silver Dip 2019 do not hit their target, you don’t have to pay a thing for the report.

Investing in silver ETFs leveraged with margin loans may create extraordinary profits in 2019.

The “Silver Dip 2019”  shows how to easily make an ideal speculation for almost any amount.   The report shows when and how to get margin loans in dollars, British pound, Japanese yen or euro.

In fact you learn how to borrow in 23 different currencies, even Russian rubles, so you can choose the weakest currency with the lowest interest rates.

Low Interest Loans

Interest on the loan won’t eat up profits.  The “Silver Dip 2019” shows how to borrow many currencies right now for less than 2%.

The Silver Dip is only exercised when conditions are absolutely ideal.  Value investors never push this rule.  Investment and speculative markets are full of rumor, conjecture (a lot of it false) and hidden agendas.  The Silver Dip relies instead on a really simple theory… that the price of gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s price should maintain a parity with gold.  When that parity is out of balance (as it has been since August 2018) silver’s price is ready to explode.

The “Silver Dip 2019” explains how to speculate in silver ETFs plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in silver if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment:  who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons why conditions are excellent for better for a Silver Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2019” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2019” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in silver.

Learn how to beware of certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how silver profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of silver’s price with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine its real value.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of silver to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2019  $39.95

The benefit of 50 years experience in watching markets, metals, bonds, interest rates and currencies, I have learned many special pricing situations to watch for.

These special opportunities do not appear every day.  That’s why they are special.

Unless you have seen them come and go, it’s hard to see them coming again.

That is why I was willing to wait for years for silver to be in a special pricing position.

Our courses and reports are about finding good value and they have been helping astute readers find value investments, again and again for 50 years.

The “Silver Dip 2019” report shows a current huge opportunity.  I continuously watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.   Sometimes a rare quirk, such as the currency distortions, low cost loans and low silver price  offer potential for profit, with very little risk of long term loss.

Investors who speculate on these aberrations at the correct time can make fortunes.

The time is now.

Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

We are stalking precious metal opportunity now.

The trap is set. We are waiting…

This opportunity is explained in the report “Silver Dip 2019”.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Here is why there is no risk for you.  The report is 100% guaranteed.

I do not sell book, reports and courses.  I offer benefits.  If  the Silver Dip 2019 does not bring you the benefits you expect, just let me know any time in 2019 and I’ll send you a quick, no questions asked, full refund.

I can’t promise that silver’s price will rise in 2019 but  I can guarantee you’ll be fully satisfied with the report or… you can have your money back in full.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Gary

Sandalwood Makes the News Again


Sandalwood makes the news again, but in a terrible way.   We can gain valuable ideas about portfolio selection from this news.

Last year, I wrote about investing in TFS Corp., a sandalwood company after reading a Wall Street Journal article that explained how sandalwood has become so valuable that the police shot dead one of India’s most notorious sandalwood smugglers, known as Veerappan.

tFS corp

See latest TFS Corp share chart www.finance.yahoo.com.

The demand for sandalwood grows as a BBC article “Indian police kill 20 suspected red sandalwood smugglers” (1) tells how Police in India’s Andhra Pradesh killed at least 20 suspected red sandalwood smugglers.

The article says: Sandalwood smuggling is rampant in southern India, with a tonne selling for tens of thousands of dollars on the international black market.

The police are being questioned and investigated about using excessive force but this conflict shows how the growing value of sandalwood means that laborers are willing to risk their lives to harvest this wood.

TFS Corp. is located in Australia and is the only company with a viable plantation plus a vertical soil to oil sandalwood business that includes a sandalwood essential oil distillery and sandalwood skin care brand product.

The shares have risen form $1.19 a share to $1.68, but as the chart above shows, this has not been a smooth ride.  The shares of TFS Corp. are so volatile each investor should ask “should I invest in this company and if so, how much?

Sandalwood has great value and  TFS Corp. has an opportunity to tap into this value, but will they and how long will this take?  If so how much can a TFS Corp. share grow?

Our research found that over ten years the share price could reach $10 per share.  If so, this represents about a 900% gain from the $1.19 price at the time of our recommendation.

However, there is always something we do not know.  This is a high risk investment, plus not every investor has a ten year timeline.  Even more important our minds are not correctly geared to make volatile investments.  Fear provides about twice as much input as greed when we invest.

Many studies have found that fear is controlled within the brain by the amygdala, an almond-shaped part of the brain involved in emotion and decision-making.

We may make rational decisions about investments to begin.  But as the price of the investment moves (up or down) the fear of loss (the unrealized loss or the loss of the gain) kicks in.  Our perception of what’s happening causes blood flow to shift from the brain’s rational center, the frontal cortex, and flow to the amygdala where our emotions are activated.

We become less likely to use reasoning, judgment and planning and often respond to our emotions instead. We can stop thinking through our choices and act out of fear.

From an evolutionary standpoint, fear is good as a neural circuit that helps keep us stay alive in dangerous situations.  In investing this is not so good because our perceptions about the danger of loss activates pathways that send information to the amygdala, which is likely to trigger emotional responses like hiding or fleeing.

We are attacked by our fear of loss.  The reaction tends to be to hide or run which in the financial world tends to be to hold onto bad investments that have dropped in price and sell good investments that have risen.

Let’s use the roller coaster TFS Corp. share price to illustrate why volatile shares have an increased human emotional risk.

Investors who invested when I first wrote may have jumped in February 2015 at $1.19.  Over the next seven months the shares scorched up to $2.22 for a quick 86% profit.   Investors who bought at $1.19 or near began to think, “Should I sell and take that profit?”  Remember the analysis shows that the shares could go to $10 per share.

Then TFS  announced that a Nestle owned company will buy $500 million worth of sandalwood oil from them over the next ten years.  The share price did not rise in a logical way.  The price plummeted back to $1.22 instead.  These are thinly traded shares and I suspect that some major shareholders took profits.

Many investors by this time were be thinking, “Should I sell and get my money back”, (if they invested at the $1.19 price).  Those who had waited and invested at $1.40, or $1.80 or $2.00 per share more likely thought “OMG,  I have lost! I must to get out to save what’s left.”

This is why I have been introducing readers to the Magic Calculator, a service that assesses the potential volatility of shares around the world and creates a trailing stop.

The correct way to have bought the TFS Corp. shares was to set a downside target based on one’s needs and total portfolio and stuck with this target through the ups and downs that thinly traded shares tend to have.

The Magic Calculator helps in setting such targets.

Last week, I invited Richard Smith, a PhD in Mathematics, the inventor and operator of the Magic Calculator to visit Merri and me at our home.  His information was so fascinating that our meeting lasted over five hours.

The Magic Calculator eliminates a huge amount of the mental process required for good investing by turning the question of “When should I sell?” into a mathematical model rather than a mental churning complicated by our human reactions to fear and desire.  We desire a profit and fear a loss.  This conflict can cause most investors to make poor investment decisions time and time again.  This is not an error on any investor’s part.  This is a fabric of human nature.

The Magic Calculator also estimates the volatility of shares.  For example TFS Corp shares has a high volatility rating of 40.  This means that the share is likely to lose as much as 40% of its price.  This is powerful information because it helps decide how much of any specific shares we might want to risk.

For example if the maximum loss we feel we should sustain is $10,000, then $25,000 is the most we would want to risk on TFS Corp. stock.  If the investment of $25,000 drops 40%,  the loss is $10,000.

I asked Richard if he could calculate the process of TFS Corp from the time I made that recommendation at $1.19.

He replied:  I took a quick look at TFS Corp.  Was it around January, 2014 that you recommended TFS?  At the time the Volatility Quotient (VQ) was 35%.  Currently the volatility quotient is about 41%.

It does look like the Smart Trailing Stop triggered on the drop from $2.22 to $1.21 from September to December 2014. That was a drop of about 45%, which exceeded the VQ of about 40% by early December.

So while the Magic Calculator would have helped folks understand the risk in this case, I’m afraid that it would have stopped folks out around break-even if they had gotten in at $1.19.

I do think that once you start to see VQ’s in the 40% and above range that it’s good to think of the investment as likely being an all or nothing bet.

Here are three valuable benefits from this information.  First, we can see how much to risk when we see a 40% VQ… everything we invest.  We do not invest more than we can afford to lose.  Second, this clears our mind, we do not have to keep spending time thinking, “Should I sell  – should I hold – should I buy more?”  If we made an all or nothing bet, then we forget about it and let it ride through the turmoil.

This has been the correct action since the shares were $1.19.  Now the shares are in the $1.60 range.  Investors from 2013 have made over 200% return.  Investors who invested last September  may have lost as much as 26%.

Those who analyzed the potential of Sandalwood and the prospects of TFS Corp.  are investing in what they believe . With a VQ of 40%  we may want to logically recheck the performance of the company and the value of sandalwood, but the day to day performance of the share price should be noise we ignore.

New York mathematics PhD. who created the Magic Calculator made a startling investment confession.

Over the years, we have had great success at giving readers information on markets and currencies that were about to explode… up.  Yet one problem we have always had is helping each individual figure out which of these opportunities suits him or her best.  More importantly we have never had a way of helping individuals decide when it is best to sell any specific investment.

Recently I found a solution to these problems when I received this note from Richard Smith.  I am testing his service and recommend that you do as well.

Gary

Richard sent me this note.  Hi, my name is Dr. R. Smith (I have a PhD in mathematics from Binghamton University in New York).  You don’t know me, but I think you’ll want to hear my story.

You see, I love investing. Always have… even though I’ve never really been that good at it.

Over the years, I’ve made just about every mistake in the book.  Whether it’s selling too soon on stocks that go up… selling too late on stocks that go down… or following the investing herd off a cliff over and over again.  You name it, I’ve done it.

I’ve personally lost a bundle.

But not too long ago something happened to me that literally reversed my fortune – and enabled me to get back everything I lost (and I mean everything), plus hundreds of thousands of dollars more… over the course of just 48 months.

The amazing thing is… I didn’t even have to change which investments I was making!

So what happened exactly?

I don’t want to spoil the surprise about exactly what I did, but I strongly encourage you to take a minute to check it out.

You can get the full details here.

Sincerely,

Dr. R. Smith

(1) Indian police kill 20 suspected red sandalwood smugglers

 

A Christmas Gift


Merry Christmas. 

snowman

Snowman by my sister, Sandra Strait.

Here is a Christmas gift from Merri and me to you.  I believe one of the best long term values I have spotted in 2104 are the shares in TFS Corp. an Australian company that has a vertical East Indian sandalwood business from the soil to the oil.

TFS chart

Chart from www.finance.yahoo.au.com

The sandalwood investment we reviewed in our “Sandalwood Investing Report” has risen over 50% since the beginning of the year when a Wall Street Journal article on illegal sandalwood tree harvesting captured my attention.  I have great interest in helping the environment, in forestry and in sandalwood oil, and began researching investing in sandalwood.

I wrote an entire report and have been selling this at Amazon.com.    Today and tomorrow you can get this report free.  Simply click onto Amazon.com.  I have dropped the price to zero for today and tomorrow.   On Saturday the price will return to $9.99.

Screen shot 2014-01-28 at 5.28.13 PM

You can get the Sandalwood Investing Report FREE today and tomorrow at Amazon.com

Merri and I send our best wishes for Happy Holidays and the most prosperous yet in 2015.

Gary

A Tale of Two Kitties


What’s the kitty?  Your accumulated wealth, your savings, your pension?   Your kitty is the lump sum created by your lifetime of effort, sacrifice and work.   Yet there are many who will try to take that kitty away.

Kitty

Definitions of Kitty.

Your kitty is the reward for not spending all you have, for the contributions, investments and restraint your financial management entailed.  This is the social promise that you can use to live, to live better and to grow.

So how safe is it?  What’s the timing for investing your kitty?  Where in the Dickens should you be investing now?  These are classic investing questions and we can gain some advice from a classic.

These are the best of times. They are the worst of times. This is the age of investing wisdom and the age of foolishness in investing.

These are the times that can ruin you or make you rich.

Two High Risk Kitties

This message is about three principles of risk management because the first rule of investing is do not lose your kitty!   I am sharing this note because last month, at our multi currency global investing seminar we reviewed a case study built around a breakout portfolio of seven shares that had risen 490.65% in 22 months. (1).

Delegates started asking me how can I invest in this portfolio before they looked at, understood and calculated if they could accept the risk.   This was a portfolio of great profit, but with significant risk.  There was especially a timing risk, because a great deal of the profit came from one share, TFS Corp. which at the time we studied the portfolio had risen from A$1.19 to A$2.15 a share.   This is a thinly traded, volatile share with the greatest profit potential still years away.

Yesterday,  just a month after the review, this share had dropped from A$2.15 to A$1.34 per share.  That is a 37.6% loss in one month!

TFS

TFS Corp. share chart www.au. finance.yahoo  (2) Click on chart to enlarge.

We regularly create and post portfolios at this site to research, examine and study risk versus reward.  We learn a lot from watching such portfolios in action.   One important lesson learned is that portfolios that have just done well are not always good investments for the current times.  Plus they may never be good investments for many investors.

This case +490% study for example has lost a lot of value in the last month!

Here is another example.  In 2007 we created a case study Emerging Markets Portfolio.  In 2007 it did well rising +122.62%
 in 12 months.  In 2008 the same portfolio fell -73.79%.

The price for extra performance with  leverage is added volatility and risk.

We study portfolios to learn the potential rewards and risks.  The studies help us see an entire picture, but the painter of the whole story is time.  Risk is increased by jumping into a portfolio in the midst of a study, especially when the portfolio has performed well.

Based on numerous studies like this over the past 46 years, we have learned that there are only three sure ways to gain the highest returns on your kitty and reduce risk at the same time.   #1: Take time. #2:  Seek value. #3: Regularly monitor the investments without emotion.

Leverage increases profits or losses.  Leveraged investments move more rapidly than non leveraged and require extra attention and discipline.

Have time and seek value.  I repeat this because it is why I do not manage leverage in my investments.  I become too invested in defending my decisions.  I leave this instead to a professional manger (ENR Asset Managers) who are in the business of watching leveraged portfolios each day and removing their making decisions from their ego.

For those who have time and seek value, it can be the best of times.  For those who try to gain extra rewards without accepting the added risk and without providing emotionally free management of the portfolio, it is the worst of times.

A Safer Portfolio

If you want to leverage a growth investment, take a look at the Viking Dynamic one times leverage portfolio.  This portfolio is managed for you and is up this year in spite of a volatile market and strong US dollar that has pushed the price of non dollar holdings down.  The leverage in this portfolio is 25% Japanese yen, 50% Euro and 25% US dollar.  For those with an interest here is the latest fact sheet.

ENR Dynamic Portfolio

Click here for the full 12 page fact sheet  ENR Viking Dynamic Portfolio (SEPT 2014)

Charles Dickens told us the obvious in his “Tale of Two Cities”.  Things aren’t always as they seem.  The dregs of society can turn out to be saviors.  The cream of the human crop can turn out to be bloodthirsty thugs.  This is true of portfolios as well. Do not turn the story of your kitty into one of pity.  Have a relentless search for value. Be sure to allot enough time for the value of your investments to emerge.  Give the day to day management to professionals who can make decisions without letting their emotions get in the way.

Gary

How to Gain With Multi Currency Value Investments

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

 

 

 

(1) 490% Breakout Portfolio

(2) TFS share chart at au.finance.yahoo.com

Sandalwood Investing Update


Here is a Sandalwood investing update.

Sandalwood & Nestles

We published our Sandalwood Investing report January 2014 when shares in the Sandalwood plantation company, TFS Corp. (share symbol TFC) were selling at A$1.19. The shares passed A$2.15.

sandalwood chart

(click on image to enlarge.)

Then TFS  announced that a Nestle owned company will buy $500 million worth of sandalwood oil from them.

The share price then plummeted.  These are thinly traded shares and I suspect that some major shareholders took profits.

TFS

See the updated TFS Corp. share chart here

Value still looks excellent t me and I continue to hold my position in TFS Corp.

An ABC.net article entitled “International dermatology company Galderma confirmed as multi million dollar buyer of sandalwood oil” (1) by Tyne McConnon says:  The world’s largest producer of Indian sandalwood says Nestle-owned company Galderma is the multi-million-dollar buyer of its oil.

Tropical Forestry Services (TFS) announced in March it had signed a deal expected to be worth half a billion dollars with a pharmaceutical company.

TFS has plantations in Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland.
The company’s head of global products Mario Di Lallo says Galderma will use the oil in various products.

“Things like eczema creams, warts, acne, actinic keratosis, which are the pre-cancerous skin lesions that people go and get cut off and burnt off.

“Most things that afflict the skin.”

Mr Di Lallo confirms the deal to sell the sandalwood oil for US$4,500 per kilogram for up to 20 years.

The TFC price may still be quite low.

The analyst we used who has visited the plantation and issued a report on the shares of TFS Corp. gave a Buy recommendation with a target price of .A$.90 cents.  The price was A$.77 cents at the writing of the report.

The report said:  We visited TFC’s operations around Kununurra and seeing for ourselves the proceeds from the first 8ha harvest, what is clear is that the knowledge gained from the earliest plantations has been deployed and has resulted in material improvements in Indian Sandalwood growth; as such whilst yields over a number of years are likely to fall short of PDS targets we see harvests for more recent plantings as likely to considerably exceed heartwood developed per tree.

With confidence provided regards heartwood and oil production, the next key uncertainty is sustainable pricing as larger volumes of wood and oil become available; we are of the view that emergence of a sustainable, legal supply (most Indian Sandalwood is poached) will see an increase in demand from pharmaceutical and fine fragrance sectors, with the growing wealth of India and China driving decorative carving, fragrance and religious ceremony needs.

The dwindling supply of natural Indian Sandalwood has seen a considerable amount of trade on the black market rather than via official traceable channels and product substitution (both different sandalwood species and synthetics) occur, which does present uncertainty as to how inelastic pricing is as sustainable plantation volumes increase.

TFC is the only traceable supplier for pharmaceutical industry

Demand estimates shows there appears little prospect of oversupply.

Indeed, by the time the FY13 plantings are harvested and sold in 2028 the likely demand from an increasingly wealthy India and China will continue to favour demand.

Scope for +$3bn of operating profit over next 15 years vs current market cap of $220m.

Market will pay attention to TFC at some point in time.

As such, when combined with harvesting and processing fees for MIS and Wholesale plantations it is not unreasonable to anticipate +$2.5bn EBITDA being generated over the coming fifteen years from all harvesting and sales activities, on top of another ~$750m EBITDA from establishment services if the company can consistently generate +1,000ha of annual new plantation sales.

Stock market will inevitably appreciate ‘embedded value’ given sheer scale of potential profits.

However if we look forward a number of years, say a decade at which point TFC could be generating sustainable EBITDA of ~$400m from harvesting its owned plantations, harvesting and value-adding MIS investors’ harvested wood and also from new establishment fees; in turn this could generate EPS of +80c which if applied to a PER of ~13x (a +25% discount to the current FY14 XSI aggregate) implies a potential ~$10 share price offering robust prospective long-term returns from current levels.

The shares have been rising and falling, but if this analysis is correct the price could reach A$10 in the long term (appx. 15 years). This means the shares are good value now.

We have published a complete report on Sandalwood Investing ($9.99) which is available at www.amazon.com

Screen shot 2014-01-28 at 5.28.13 PM

Order the Sandalwood Investing Report here.

You can order the book in print for $10.79

TFS owns and manages East Indian Sandalwood plantations in Australia. TFS Corp. shares are traded on the Australian Stock Exchange. You can order the Sandalwood Investing Report at Amazon.com. These shares built-in value with potential for a $10 price over the next 10 years.

You can research this business on your own or to save you endless hours and numerous calls to Australia you can order the report at Amazon.com.
The Primer on Value Investing

“The Intelligent Investor” written by Benjamin Graham and Jason Zweig with Warren Buffet as a collaborator is THE classic book on value investing. This investment book outlines no-fail value strategies without gimmicks. The book is filled with wisdom about investing.

Intelligent Investor

You can order this at Amazon.com here

Spotting economic contrasts and trends that create value is a sure way to make investments and savings grow faster than the loss of purchasing power. Ignore what the market is doing. Examine value instead.

Two of my favorite places to invest are in agriculture and water. I hope these sandalwood updates create ideas for investing for you.

Gary

Learn more about agri and sandalwood investing at our International Investing Seminars.

ad file=”https://www.garyascott.com/ads/ibezseminar”]

(1)  ABC article International dermatology company Galderma confirmed as multi million dollar buyer of sandalwood oil

 

Contrasts Eliminate Wooden Profits


Contrasts that show value suggest we should look at investing in wood.  Here is a distortion that may lead to profit.

Since June 2008 when the US stock market crashed, the Dow Jones Industrial has risen 37.90%.

wood chart finance.yahoo

Click on charts to enlarge

The S&P 500 index has risen 37.64%

S&P chart finance.yahoo

In the same period the Wood Index has risen 7.33%

dow chart finance.yahoo

Since the price of wood is such an important element in the recovery of the global economy we should expect timber shares to rise at a rate at least similar to the Dow or S&P. If this assumption is true, then wood represents great value now.

A recent Wall Street Journal article entitled “U.S. Company Targets Australian Timber” by Daniel Stacey suggests this is true.

Here is an excerpt:  Not long ago, overseas forestry companies were snapping up businesses and entire timber districts in Australia with the glee of mythical lumberjack Paul Bunyan.

Now, San Francisco-based New Forests Pty. is planning a new wave of deals, targeting up to $1.7 billion Australian dollars (US$1.5 billion) of the country’s state-owned pine forests ahead of an expected surge in demand from China and the U.S.

The company Monday said it had closed a new A$707 million investment fund for timber assets in Australia and New Zealand. It pulled in A$490 million in a similar fundraiser four years ago that it used to buy privately owned forests and sawmills. New Forests Chief Executive David Brand told The Wall Street Journal he planned to use the new war chest to target 250,000 hectares of plantations owned by the New South Wales and Western Australia state governments—even though they may be unwilling to sell.

Most of the state-owned forests were planted after World War II, amid a panic over timber shortages after large swaths of domestic softwood were felled to build military installations, and later for reconstruction. Australian forests now provide far too much softwood for the domestic market.

Companies such as New Forests and rivals like U.S. investment fund Global Forest Partners in recent years were lured to Australia by a once-in-a-lifetime pipeline of deals after many of the nation’s private plantation companies collapsed following a disastrous flirtation with a tax-shrinking strategy.

Here are three ways to invest in wood.

iShares Global Timber & Forestry (WOOD).  This NADQ traded ETF seeks to track the S&P Global Timber & Forestry IndexTM, which is comprised of about 25 of the largest publicly-traded companies engaged in the ownership, management or upstream supply chain of forests and timber lands.  See details of S&P wood at the link below.

Guggenheim Timber ETF (CUT).  This  NYSE traded ETF invests in the shares that are in the Beacon Global Timber Index.  This index is composed of global timber companies who own or lease forested land and harvest the timber from such forested land for commercial use and sale of wood-based products, including lumber, pulp or other processed or finished goods such as paper and packaging.  See details of CUT at the link below

TFS Corp.  This is one of the few Australian plantation companies that did not collapse due to the disastrous flirtation with a tax-shrinking strategy.  TFS owns and manages East Indian Sandalwood plantations in Australia. The shares are up 605% since the company began.

tfs finance.yahoo chart

TFS Corp. shares are traded on the Australian Stock Exchange and have risen 46% since late January when we first recommended these shares and released the Sandalwood Investing Report.

tfs finance.yahoo chart

You can also order the Sandalwood Investing Report. Though the shares are up over 50% in the last month this share has plenty of built-in value with potential for a $10 price over the next 10 years.

Screen shot 2014-01-28 at 5.28.13 PM

You can learn all about the value of a TFS sandalwood share investment in the Sandalwood Investing Report at  Amazon.com

The Primer on Value Investing

“The Intelligent Investor” written by Benjamin Graham and Jason Zweig with Warren Buffet as a collaborator is the classic book on value investing.  This investment book outlines no-fail value strategies without gimmicks. The book is filled with wisdom about investing.

Intelligent Investor

You can order this at Amazon.com here.

Spotting economic contrast and trends that create value is a sure way that investments and savings can grow faster than the loss of purchasing power.  Ignore what the market is doing. Examine instead the potential value.

How to Gain With Multi Currency Value Investments

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

 

 

 

iShares Global Timber & Forestry (WOOD)

Guggenheim Timber ETF (CUT

WSJ article U.S. Company Targets Australian Timber by Daniel Stacey

Profit With Value in Math and Character


Profits come from good value investing and good value investing requires good math AND good character.

Here is a quote from Benjamin Graham’s  (Warren Buffet’s teacher) book  “The Intelligent Investor”.   This kind of intelligence has nothing to do with IQ or SAT scores.  It simply means being patient, disciplined and eager to learn; you must be able to harness your emotions and think for yourself.  This kind of intelligence is a trait more of character than of the brain.

Good character grows from patience and eagerness to learn.

Discipline comes from good math which is why I am happy to introduce an investing math program aimed at instilling discipline in one savings and investing activity.

R. Smith Ph.D. lost all his savings in 21 months.  He was a math and computer whiz who has crunched numbers for many big corporations. He came upon a mathematical secret that helped him recover the loss and make $309,000 profit in just 48 months.  He calls the secret a “Magical Calculator” and it helps investors calculate exit prices based on an individual stock’s price.

He has an offer for the “Magical Calculator” to show how to improve your investing discipline.

Here is an example of how this works. We wrote about TFS Corp. a Sandalwood plantation manager,  in January 2014. We published a report on this businesses and its great ten year value and potential.

That share surprised us by skyrocketing nearly 50% in just over a month.

tfs corp

January to March 2014 share chart for TFS Corp.

With such quick results, the question has to come to mind, “Should I sell and take a profit?”

The STS (Smart Trailing Stop) on the stock ticker, when I checked, was 37.8%, which means that is the current trailing stop level as of March 2014 that you would use for that share at its current price.

This type of math creates great discipline so one knows not to sell too soon and give away profit but, also knows not to hold too long and give away returns already made.

I am adding this system to my bag of investing tools and will be reporting how it works for me.

Learn how to use the “Magical Calculator” that shows how to improve investing discipline.

Gary

“The Intelligent Investor” written by Benjamin Graham and Jason Zweig with Warren Buffet as a collaborator is the classic book on value investing.  This investment book outlines no-fail value strategies without gimmicks. The book is filled with wisdom about investing.

Intelligent Investor

You can order this at Amazon.com here.

You can also order the Sandalwood Investing Report. Though the shares are up over 50% in the last month this share has plenty of built-in value with potential for a $10 price over the next 10 years.

Screen shot 2014-01-28 at 5.28.13 PM

You can learn all about the value of a TFS sandalwood share investment in the Sandalwood Investing Report at  Amazon.com

Spotting economic contrast and trends that create value is a sure way that investments and savings can grow faster than the loss of purchasing power.  Ignore what the market is doing. Examine instead the potential value.

How to Gain With Multi Currency Value Investments

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report