Tag Archive | "Swedish Bond Fund;"

Multi Currency Predictions Feb. 2009


We made several multi currency predictions at our February 2009 International Investing & Business Course in Cotacachi, Ecuador. The investing and business portion concluded yesterday. We are now inspecting Ecuador property.

We used many approaches to process information about how markets and economies might move.

We viewed currencies at the technical level and saw that Jyske Global Asset Management (JGAM) had closed their British pound recommendation.

This is the fine detailed view… the technical end of investing,  Peter Laub of JGAM showed how JGAM had recommended investing in pounds at 1.3750 with a stop loss at 1.3700. Peter explained how the pound dropped to 1.3703 before rising to 1.4500.  JGAM took profit on the backslide to 1.4300.

We looked at economic fundamentals and discussed the February 10, 2009 New York Times article   “Bailout Plan: $2.5 Trillion and a Strong U.S. Hand”  by Edmund  Andrews and Stephen  Labaton  which said:

WASHINGTON — The White House plan to rescue the nation’s financial system, announced on Tuesday by Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary, is far bigger than anyone predicted and envisions a far greater government role in markets and banks than at any time since the 1930s.

Administration officials committed to flood the financial system with as much as $2.5 trillion — $350 billion of that coming from the bailout fund and the rest from private investors and the Federal Reserve, making use of its ability to print money.

We compared the inflationary impact of this bailout with the deflationary impact of a 20% contraction in the $14 trillion economy.  This looks like a wash that could bring an economic balance at the cost of the US dollar’s parity to  other currencies.

We viewed how seasonality was at work. Over 30 years the Dow has frown 8.16%  overall but all of that growth and more (8.36% per annum average)  have come in in the months of November through April. The average annual growth per annum over thirty years in May  to October is only 0.37%.   In other words… history suggests that every day we move closer to May, the chances of a stock market correction in 2009 diminish.

We viewed the economic cycle and saw that we are reaching the phase of the economic cycle when we should be coming out of cash and bonds and into  shares as:

* Interest rates are down.

* There is a rush for liquidity.

* Employment is growing.

* Uncertainty is high.

multi-currecny-predictions

We looked at the fact that we have plenty of time… no hurry. We can wait and see.  We have time to choose and pick…  the best bargains and values.

We even looked at how the planets and full moon affect investors. There is a historic link in the general trend of world affairs and the the cycles of Jupiter and Saturn.    History suggests that when  these planets are in a good phase it is been auspicious for the world and vice verse.

The cycles of these planets are about 12 years and 30 years which ties into the market cycles we track.

The chart below shows the historical relationship.

We viewed this chart  from a Maharishi Vedic Astrology prediction by Siebelt Meyera in February 1997.

multi-currency-markets

The chart is a bit hard to see here so here is what it reads in the troughs:

1914 Start of WW I

1939 Start f WWII

1962 Cuban Crisis

1973 Yom Kippur War

1997 Economic meltdown in Asia

Since 1991, the cycle has been in their downward trends and reached its lowest in 1997 when Jupiter was debilitated, and in 1998 when Saturn will be debilitated. From 1999 onwards the value will slowly and reach a peak value again between 2012 and 2015.  This suggests a slow recovery over the next three years.

All of this confirmed that we should not expect a quick recovery and reconfirmed our recommendation to do nothing now. Maintain a defensive position and wait for opportunity to present itself.

We reviewed my personal portfolio to see how I am doing this.

Liquid Portfolio  Allocation

Cash  23%
Bonds  61%
Shares 16%

Liquid Portfolio Currency Allocation

Brazilian real              4%
Denmark kroner      33%
euro                            31%
British pound          10%
Turkey Lira                8%
US$                           14%

Total Asset Allocation

Cash  21%
Shares 2%
Emerging Shares .5%
Bonds 17.5%
Emerging Bonds  8%
Ecuador Real Estate 9%
US Agricultural Land 12%
Residential Property 10%
Commercial Property 20%

My Cash Currency Breakdown

USD   14%
GBP  4%
Norwegian kroner 1%
Swedish kroner 1%
Other 1%

My Shares

Bank of Florida  .5%
Jyske Bank  .5%
Turkey Equity Fund .5%
European Equity Fund 1%

My Bonds

Swedish Bond Fund  2%
Euro Bond Fund 4.5%
Danish Bond Fund 7%
ELF Aquitain  EUR 4.500% 23.03.2009  1.5%
Caisse D‚Amort Dette  EUR 12.07.2009  1.5%
Rabobank NL    CAD 4.250% 2009           1%

My Emerging Bonds

Hungary Gvt.    HUF 6.250%12.08.2009   1%
Hungary Gvt.    HUF 6.750%12.02.2013     1%
Emerging Market Bond fund  2.5%
European Investment BK TRY Bond  1.5%
Brazil    BRL  12.500% 05.01.2016          1%
China    EUR  1%

My US Real Estate

US Agricultural Land  12%
Residential Property  10%
Commercial Property 21%

My Ecuador Real Estate

Ecuador Andean residential 2%
Ecuador Coastal    5%
Ecuador Agricultural 2%

We also looked at the importance of investing in things we like.

We reviewed real estate investments in Cotacachi and on the Ecuador beach.

Delegates met Ecuador condo owners Bob & Barbara Humphrey. Here is Bob & Barbara at the Ecuador beach.

multi-currency-predictions

Bob & Barbara live in Telluride Colorado in the summer. Bob has retired from his diving business… flies his own plane and races cars (Shelby Cobra).  Barbara is a Feng Shui expert who lectures globally on this subject.

Like many of our readers Bob & Barbara have a condo both in Cotacachi and on the beach at Vistaazul Beach Condos.

We packed incredible amounts of information into three days but had fun as well.

There was plenty of time for delegates to talk and share what they learned.  Here are several delegates talking, US, Australian and Canadian.

multi-currency-predictions

Plus JGAM hosted a Valentine’s Day wine & cheese reception on Saturday night.

multi-currency-predictions

Andean musicians performed.

Multi-currency-predictions

There was Andean music… a Conga line began.

multi-currency-predictions

Andean dancers entertained.

multi-currency-predictions

There is an excellent organic vineyard and Swiss cheese factory near Cotacachi.  They are both for sale (the properties) and we are viewing them on today’s real estate tour.  For the party we just enjoyed the products, three excellent Swiss cheeses…

multi-currency-predictions

plus excellent wines.

multi-currency-predictions

The photographers in the group were having fun.

multi-currency-predictions

The youngest delegate was a bit bewildered.

multi-currency-predictions

Here is the key advice from that course.   Hold off. Wait. Do Not hurry. opportunities abound but we have plenty of time to pick them up. There could be another drop in May before a gradual recovery.  Invest with care… but invest with passion. Do things fulfilling as well as profitable. Enjoy the process as well as the end results.

Regards

Gary

Join us in Cotacachi and on Ecuador Coast in March.

Merri, our webmaster and I have created a new course on how to build a web business with a webmaster.  Here is a special offer on this new course.

You can enroll in this special course for $299. However if you sign up for our three courses in March 2009, I will send it to you free. You save $299.

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 10-15 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

March 16-19 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Bob Shane will be at our March courses and will be available to provide health balancing.

Get our web based course FREE if you join us in Ecuador this February or March.

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two

Future 2009 courses

May 29-31  JGAM Global Asset Strategy Seminar

June 12-14 Shamanic Mingo Tour
June 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
June 18-21 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 3-6     Ecuador Import Export Expedition
July 8-9    Imbabura Real Estate Tour
July 10-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 9-11     IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

Nov. 6-8    IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Cotacachi Amazing Real Estate


Cotacachi, Ecuador real estate is amazing sometimes. An even more amazing event took place yesterday…in fact a couple of them.

I’ll share my entire investment portfolio in a moment.. First, let me explain why I am adding more Cotacachi real estate to my portfolio.

A recent message explained why I recommend our upcoming course conducted by our astrologer, Blaine Watson, on  February 9-11, 2009  Beyond Logic Simple Ways to More Wealth and Better Health

I outlined how Merri and I had a wonderful reminder why we need to live beyond logic.

I showed our hotel…Meson de las flores.

cotacachi-health

and told how we had the opportunity to buy this fixer upper directly across the street from the hotel.

cotacachi-health

The fixer upper is coming out great by the way. Plus we received a huge bonus.

Everything about this building was great except there was one problem… traffic buses and trucks…fumes and noise ran right past it..

We racked our brain  trying to figure out how to resolve this….but there seemed no solution.  We almost decided not to buy… but Blaine and our chart indicated that this was the right thing to do.  So we went ahead… leapt in faith and bought the building.  We started fixing it up.

Yesterday we learned that the village is building a new bus and truck road, blocks away.   Our road…that goes right past our new fixer upper building will be blocked to trucks and buses.    When we bought…no one could have known!

We would have never thought of this solution. The answer was Beyond Logic.

Now another almost eerie real estate coincidence has happened.

Yesterday I sent my Ecuador Living subscribers a password protected message about some Cotacachi property that I believe is special.

You can read this password protected information as an Ecuador Living subscriber.

I have been writing to you about this area where this dirt road is being paved.

cotacachi-real-estate

What I shared with the Ecuador Living subscribers was information about an area just past this road  where I had a special, good feeling.  I was thinking of buying some land myself in this area.

I wrote:  When we see a road like this developing we start looking in all the nooks and crannies.  This area looks rural but it’s not.  This seemingly rural area is right in the path of progress. Our hotel is not far…next to the Cathedral you see in the distance here.

cotacachi-real-estate

There are numerous lots for sale by owner… some really excellent deals that we’ll see on our upcoming property tours.

Here are a few…they do not look like much… but…

cotacachi-real-estate

all this property is just a few blocks from this new road.  So when we see a wall like this we do not see crumbling stone.

cotacachi-real-estate

We see what is beyond.

cotacachi-real-estate

A field and it’s for sale.

cotacachi-real-estate

So when we see this…

cotacachi-real-estate

or this

cotacachi-real-estate

or this

cotacachi-real-estate

or this

cotacachi-real-estate

and this … new construction in the midst of all these lots for sale.

cotacachi-real-estate

We know the game is afoot…there is special opportunity.

Then in that password protected message I showed one of the numerous houses our readers have purchased from our friend, Diana Carasco.

cotacachi-real-estate

Diana is a famous artist in Ecuador but she also builds really great houses…that sell from as low as $76,000…and they are amazing. Delegates on our real estate tours snap them up faster than she can build.

So today Diana took us around to show us some new land she is buying today.

Here it is, exactly the land I saw and shared with my readers yesterday. This is the type of coincidence I look for when spotting opportunity.

cotacachi-real-estate

I want you to know … I came back and immediately made an offer on the land in this area that i have been considering.  To know that Diana was going to build in this area was beyond logic. I took this as the final sign…act now!

You can enroll in Beyond Logic at Feb 9-11 Beyond Logic, Keys to More Wealth & Better Health

There is more that you can see from this excerpt I sent to my password protected multi currency investors. Here is the excerpt:

Our last message looked at my personal stagflation portfolio which has the following asset diversification.

Cash
USD                                                                       14%
GBP                                                                        4%
Norwegian kroner                                              1%
Swedish kroner                                                   1%
Shares
Bank of Florida Shares                                    0 .5%
Jyske Bank, Shares                                           0.5%
Turkey Equity Fund                                         0 .5%
European Equity Fund                                    1.0%
Bonds
Swedish Bond Fund                                          2%
European Bond Fond                                      4.5%
JI Danish Bond Fund                                        7%
ELF Aquitain  EUR 4.500% 23.03.2009     1.5%
Caisse D’Amort Dette  EUR 12.07.2009      1.5%
Rabobank NL    CAD 4.250% 2009                1%
Emerging Bonds
Hungary Governm.    HUF 6.250%12.08.2009    1%
Hungary Governm.    HUF 6.750%12.02.2013     1%
Emerging Market Bond fund                                 2.5%
European Investment BK TRY Bond                    1.5%
Brazil    BRL                  12.500% 05.01.2016            1%
China    EUR                                                                   1%
US Real Estate
Agricultural Land                                                       12%
Residential Property                                                  10%
Commercial Property                                                 21%
Ecuador Real Estate
Ecuador Andean Residential                                     2%
Ecuador Coastal                                                            5%
Ecuador Agricultural                                                   2%

This portfolio dropped 11.1% from December 2007 to December 2008.  Compared to the markets this was not all that bad.

Last month it rose 4.31% so is now down 7.11% from its all time high in 2007.
Yet for me, the portfolio did not really move at all.

You can read this entire password protected update with a deeper review of my portfolio as a Multi Currency subscriber.

I then went on to share three rules behind this portfolio.

One of the rules is that I assume that the real estate portion of my portfolio will protect the entire portfolio’s purchasing power.

We have a wealth of property to see on our upcoming property tours… Cotacachi houses, condos, haciendas… gated communities, a cheese factory…and land.

We hope to see you here.

Gary

Join us in Ecuador this February.

Feb 9-11 Beyond Logic Keys to More Wealth & Better Health

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ

Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one$1,349 for two

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one$1,799 for two