Tag Archive | "stocks"

Why There is Always Something We Do Not Know


The first rule of investing is that there is always risk.   There is always something we do not know.

Did the recent drop in the share price of Facebook shake your confidence?   About $120 billion of  wealth was wiped in just a day.  Facebook shares dropped  19 percent in one of the largest one-day losses of a company’s stock market value.

Is this the beginning of a market crash or is this an opportunity?

History strongly supports the fact that the economic expansion is mature and should slow.  Since 1854, the U.S. has had 34 expansions. The periods of growth have lasted from less than a year to ten years. The current expansion in its 10th year, is the second longest of all (The 1990s expansion was longer).

Is the Facebook crunch the trigger pulled that starts a crash?

Maybe we’ll know later today.  Maybe not.

A lot of our investing strategy is based on the idea that this expansion is doomed to end soon.  It probably will, but… there is always something we do not know.

Expansions do not have to end.

For example the Wall Street Journal article How an Economic boom Can Run Out the Clock” (1)  says: Australia is experiencing an amazing economic run—a 27-year expansion that survived a regional economic crisis in the 1990s, a global economic crisis in the 2000s, and a boom-boost cycle in its core commodity sector in the 2010s.

Australia paid down gross government debt from 32% of gross domestic product in 1994 to less than 10% in 2007, according to International Monetary Fund estimates, effectively socking away resources during good times, taking some steam out of an already strong economy and leaving the government with a cushion to support the economy on a rainy day.

When the global crisis hit in 2008, Australia cut taxes and increased spending, pumping 70 billion Australian dollars (US$52 billion) into its economy, equal to 1.6% of economic output, more than U.S. stimulus equal to 1.25% of output, according to Australian Treasury Department estimates.

The US expansion probably will end.

At least it will not be prudent planning, reduced spending and saving by the government that provides  strength during a downturn.

As the chart below from the ST. Louis Federal Reserve Bank (2) shows, during this expansion, the US has increased its debt to over 105% of GDP… ten times that of the debt that Australia had.

But there is always something we do not know.

An unknown future is not something to fear, but it should be acknowledged, respected and planned for.

The thought here is to not throw history out the window.  When it comes to investing, the ability to look back is a really valuable tool.

The good news is, no one knows, so we are all equal in that way.

Create your plans. Get started. Go for it. Take a shot, but always temper you expectations with this reality.  Our reflections from the past are useful.  Our plans, powerful.  Our actions always fruitful in some way.  But the fruit is not always what we expect because there is always something we do not know.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

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The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

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This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

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Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

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Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

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The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

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Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com: How an economic boom can run out the clock

(2) fred.stlouisfed.org: US Debt as % of GDP

Multi Currency Investing Baker’s Dozen


Here is a multi currency investing baker’s dozen ideas.

Every day I get some wisdom from my dad.

selling-ideas

He’s been gone from this earthly plane for well over 30 years…I wish we had had more time together as grownups.  Yet every day I start with some wisdom from him because I have just one gift he left me to use.

Talk about being old fashioned, I use my dad’s shaving brush, the one item I have that was his… an “Ever Ready Guaranteed” brand made in the USA that he kept with an Old Spice shaving mug.

I moved up from the old Gillette single blade razor that seemed to skin hair when you hurried…  but otherwise the routine never varies.

Picking up that brush each morning brings back some wisdom he shared with me like:

#1: “The best way through trouble is straight through it.”

#2: ” You make your own bed, so you have to lie in it”.

#3:”Nothing a gambler has is ever his own”.

There is nothing spectacular about these ideas. We all know them… but the gift is that because they are such common and simple ideas they can often be ignored.  The brush helps me make sure I don’t forget.

I realize how comforting such really basic concepts are in times of seeming economic turmoil and change.  They are so fundamental they cut through the noise and stick with reality any place…. any time…. any market.

So may I pass on the gift and share a baker’s dozen of basic ideas I have been taught about multi currency investing in the hopes they can help you during this time of social, investing and earning unrest.

1: We know less than we think we do…and that’s OK.

#2: Listen to those who disagree with us…this expands our horizons.

#3: The consensus may be wrong…truth is not created through repletion of an error.

#4: You cannot succeed without making mistakes…if you opt for certainty, you will die anonymously.

#5: Cheap good value stocks outperform expensive stocks.

#6: Companies with share prices already in established up trends offer greater immediate opportunity.

#7: Stocks with high earnings and rising earnings outperform stocks with low and falling earnings.

#8: Good value, high quality stocks with rising earnings that have gained attention from the market are the most likely to appreciate.

#9: Don’t care too much about day to day volatility.

#10: Don’t care too little about strategy.

#11: Do not count on extraordinary returns. Be realistic.

#12: Do not underexpose (don’t make too many short term decisions and not enough long term decisions) yourself for the long term.

#13: Know that a period of high returns will be followed by a period of low returns.

I hope these ideas remind you of ways that make your life better every day.

Gary

On the subject of remembering, don’t forget that we have a free gift reminder service.

Gain From Election Volatility

Here we are again… another election on its way… all the robo calls from politicians… the dirty tricks and the innumerable amounts of nonsense this vital process brings.

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the election process.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   A market correction is due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics has created an uncertain era.  Everyone has been shaken over the past three years whether they are pleased with the government or not.

Nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third if we see rising interest rates, this will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the strong US dollar and undervalue non dollar stock markets to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies are the best way to profit long term, through good politics and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.

However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 plus years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

finance.yahoo.com chart SLV

iShares Silver Trust (symbol SLV) from www.finance.yahoo.com

Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2019 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2109”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2019” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2019” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2109” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Gary

 

 

 

 

Multi Currency Investment Bargains


The current market turmoil is creating some incredible multi currency investment bargains.

These charts from www.finance.yahoo.com 4pm yesterday show why…

dollar-swiss-franc-chart

the five year US dollar Swiss franc chart from www.finance.yahoo illustrates why the Swiss franc is not a bargain to buy now.

yahoo.com-charts

www.finance.yahoo.com 5 day chart of Dow Jones industrial average.

 

yahoo.com-charts

Here is the five year Dow Jones chart for perspective.

Panic in financial market creates opportunity and three really good potentials are developing.  These are opportunities  in equitiesreal estate and bonds.
One of my financial advisers wrote:
 The bond market is still OK, selling prices are a bit down – at the moment, who knows what is next.  It is difficult to have ideas to purchase anything at the moment – but on the long term it is a good time to buy in the equity market.

Prices of Gold and Swiss franc are much too high, and do not cover any real value. To invest here now might be the most risky business of all. The industrial side of gold is more or less dead. And the Swiss have great problems with their currency being so strong.  The Swiss franc has appreciated 50% against the US dollar the last five years. This is very difficult for Swiss business.

Warren Buffett once wrote to his shareholders, “we have usually made our best purchases when apprehensions about some macro event were at a peak“.

This cleansing could be a really good one  for a special reason… because for the first time in many decades, the market is not expecting governments to bail them out.   This is a huge fundamental difference between the financial crisis of three years ago and the current balancing.

The 2008 crash started at the bottom and rose up.   Bad value real estate pricing distorted the Wall Street equity market. The credit-rating firms badly misjudged the risk and this led to a collapse that caused the recession.

The current drop instead comes because the investment world finally accepts that Governments around the world can no longer gain access to unlimited amounts of money to stimulate their economies.

Simply put the old system has lost the trust of the business and financial communities.

This realization that stimulus is just added government debt has kept private sector investment down, led to high unemployment and slow growth.

In this recession there is no deleveraging. This has already taken place. Instead companies are loaded with cash and private debt has been reduced.

This has left consumption low but creates a platform for a sudden correction when prices drop so low the values attract all the cash that is laying around.

In 2008 everyone looked for governments to provide liquidity into the economy.  Now this is not expected.  Liquidity is not low. U.S. companies have record piles of cash.

Instead this is a loss of confidence in the system… in the banks and governments’ ability to boost economic growth.

The concepts of stimulus that have been used for decades simply won’t work this time round.  The reality is that, unlike 2008, governments’ money is no good in today’s over borrowed economy.

These days, large companies are frowning all the way to the bank, depositing excess funds in safe-but-idle accounts, as shown by Bank of New York’s unprecedented move last week to charge companies to park their cash in its vaults.

Sell offs always overdo so at some point equities will be good enough that investors will begin to buy. The sharp rally at the end of yesterday bouyed only by a Fed promise to keep low interest rates suggests that the market expects this to happen quickly.

Look for value shares.

The real answer is for U.S and European politicians to introduce the fiscal and labor reforms that will restart demand and investment growth. Look for this but do not expect too much too soon.

Look for bond values created by wide spreads.  These bond calculations were sent to me yesterday by Jyske Global Asset Management (JGAM).

Bond spreads rose to 5% and 6% today. That means if you bought a bond today for $10,000 and resold it immediately you would lose $500 or $600.  However if the bonds are purchased and held to maturity that spread matters not.

These spreads push the bond prices down and add to the opportunity.  Here are five buy recommendations from JGAM yesterday.

The expected return (second to last figure) is calculated on 1 year’s basis, takes the development of the currency into consideration, so if the yield on a USD bond is 3% and the expectation is that USD will drop 5% against the EUR over the next 12 month the expected return will be 8%. Thus this figure is just an estimate.

All the bonds below are denominated in euro and the  return is calculated based on the expected rise of the euro versus the danish kroner not the US dollar.

Take the Bombadier Bond as an example.  The annual interest you receive is 7.1% and if the spread narrows the bond could be sold for a profit. However if the bond is held to 2021… you would receive that 7.1% every year and then receive you investment back.

multi-currency bonds

Real estate prices are already low.  The current fear will soften the market even further.

For more information on bonds American investors should contact Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Non Americans contact Rene Mathys at mathys@jbpb.dk

Our analysis of 30 year cycles suggests that the current market correction is almost exactly on time.  The good values created in this downfall could create strong profits in the years ahead.

Gary

See new idea on how to earn with Ecuador agriculture and exports .

See this Manabi farm with organic cashew potential.


manabi-ecuador-farm

Join Merri and me as we look at ways to fight international investment turmoil in the year ahead.

We have written for many years about many unique products and services that we use. Now we have started a program to help our readers create their own micro business working with these businesses as introducers, dealers and distributors.

This creates a way to earn globally… meeting some great… really unique global businesses tied together with our communication system that can bring all this: training…. communicating and networking.

We are starting with these five businesses first.

#1: Jyske Global Asset Management  (JGAM)
#2: Bio Wash
#3: Candace Newman Essential Oils
#4: Roses
#5: Ecuador Imbabura Export Products

After attending our International Business and investing seminar on October 7-8-9, you will be qualified to enroll for introducer, distributor and dealer programs above and any others we develop. 

Enrolling in any of our online business development courses and attending one seminar provides full qualification to apply for all programs we provide for a year.

I’ll explain the first specific way you can tap into greater power for everlasting health and wealth in a moment.

We provide three e-courses that can help you develop your own micro business that we designed to help you earn anywhere you live in the world.

International Business Made EZ ($299)

Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher ($499)

Event – Full How to Earn With  Your Own Seminars ($349)

We have started the beta program that can bring you the following benefits:

#1: Connect you via our our online course “International Business Made EZ” to here and now specific business opportunities.

#2: Keep you in touch with other readers in the program, share business tips, ideas contacts and even website support in some instances.

Our first turnkey business program is Jyske global Asset Management because our activities as publishers has a synchronicity with Jyske and JGAM.   We have been able to combine our training, communications and lead generation abilities with their financial organization.

Business is always a little more complicated when it entails financial products so we have created a beta program to develop this system.

An Introducer does not have to be a registered as an investment adviser but JGAM does have a due diligence requirement. JGAM will also expect a certain amount of referrals per year though this amount has not been determined… hence this beta offer.

JGAM pays a percentage of their fee to the Introducer up to a maximum 25% of their fee. This not only offers an excellent income generating opportunity but creates a potential long term income stream because JGAM keeps paying the fee as long as the client remains a client. Fees are paid on a quarterly basis.

There is also potential for growing long term income because JGAM pays the referrer based on the total assets under management.  If a referred client makes additional payments, the referrer will be paid on the total amount.

For example if an referrer refers a client who invests a minimum $100,000 and the annual fee is 2%, the Introducer earns $500 per annum basic fee (as long as the customer remains with JGAM)… plus if the assets grow either through portfolio growth or added deposits… so too does the Introducer’s fee.

We have set our first training JGAM training session for October 10, 2012.

This program will allow subscribers to any of our  online courses who have attended an International Business Made EZ seminar to become Introducers for JGAM.

We have been working with Jyske Bank for over 20 years and Jyske Global Asset Management, a Jyske Bank wholly owned subsidiary. We started talking to Thomas Fischer Senior VP about an referral program for some time.  Finally, we introduced this opportunity for the first time at our June 2011 seminar.  The response was overwhelming.

Jyske Bank employs a staff of about 4,000 and operates 116 Danish branches, which makes it the second largest independent Danish bank. They offer a full range of financial solutions to retail as well as small and medium-sized corporate clients.

We have always liked Jyske because they are one of Europe’s largest currency traders and offer very simple but sophisticated multi currency investing services.  They are one of Europe’s largest currency traders and dealers.

We have especially enjoyed our business relation with Jyske because being open and honest is one of the core values of the bank group. Traditionally, Jyske formulates and communicates its values – and the way they understand and live by them – to the surrounding world. They work hard offering shareholders, customers and employees balanced opportunity.

We especially like the fact that Jyske employees are not paid bonuses.  No multi million pay outs are in the system that might temp staff to distort earnings or take undue risks.

Here is how you can apply for this program.

To start as a referrer,  there is first the compliance process with Jyske Bank.

Once that process is complete, our IBEZ system helps educate and assist referrer.

First… once a referrer has been approved by JGAM, and the referrer has completed our online course International Business Made EZ course and attended one of our  international investing and business seminars they can attend an exclusive training seminar at our farm.

We have a…

little-horse-creek

creekside…

little-horse-creek

seminar hall where…

little-horse-creek

unless the group grows too large, we’ll meet.   We’ll have lunch  on the deck looking over Little Horse Creek.

JGAM and our company conduct this one day intensive training for potential Introducers the day after each International Investing and Business seminar.

The first such seminar will be conducted Monday, October 10, 2011 immediately after our October 7-8-9 International Investing and Business Seminar in West Jefferson, North Carolina.

Part of the JGAM program is designed so we can assist Introducers by referring readers in their locale to them.  So for example if a referrer is in Miami, we will send special emails to our readers in that area, help organize mini seminars… etc.

We can zero in as close as 20 miles to a location so for example we can send a separate email to every reader within 20 miles of the address of an Introducer.  And although we won’t release the names in that area, we can send them a note of the opportunity.

We will also provide a Introducer communication forum and update training as well as portfolio and investing ideas.  We have general plans at this stage but find the best way to develop systems is to refine through action. We expect our beta program this year to clarify how we can best help our readers become Introducers and how we can help them succeed.

Step one is to start the compliance process with JGAM.  Thomas Fischer  can send you the Introducer Questionnaire and Terms of Business.

Thomas Fischer’s email is fischer@jgam.com

This will begin the process of establishing a relationship with JGAM.  Once this relation is approved and verified, then you will be able to enroll in the Introducer training.

You must complete one of the online business development courses above and attend an International Business and Investing Seminar to be eligible for the October training.

All of our readers are invited to enroll in our International Business Made EZ Online Course and our International Business and Investing Seminar at any time.

Satisfaction Guaranteed.  Three Guarantees.

There is no guarantee that JGAM will approve your application as a Introducer just because you enroll in the seminar or take the online course so we make two special guarantees.

First Guarantee. Regarding the online course International Business Made EZ.  Enroll in this course. Take it and if you are not satisfied for any reason within 30 days… let us know and we’ll give you a full refund.

Second Guarantee. Enroll in our October 7-8-9 International Business & Investing Seminar.  I’ll send you a recording of the June seminar now so you better understand what these seminars are and how they help you.  If you are not happy with what you hear, let us know within 30 days and we’ll give you a full refund. You keep the recorded seminar as our thanks.

Third Guarantee.  Your earnings potential has this guarantee.  First, any time between now and October… before you attend the International Business and Investing seminar if you fail to qualify as a JGAM Introducer you can ask for a full refund.

Early enrollment for our October 7-9 North Carolina Course click here for details.

 

International Investing Update


Here is an International Investing Update:

We need to continually update our investment plans to protect the purchasing power of our savings, investments and pensions.

Let’s begin this international investment update with a look at the state of the market for bonds.

At Jyske Bank’s most recent Global Wealth Seminar, one of the great speakers was Tommy Leung. He is in charge of the bond trading for UBS in London… so I really enjoyed listening to him and then talking more about bonds over dinner.

tommy-leung

Tommy Leung speaking to Thomas Fischer and other speakers at the Jyske Global Wealth Seminar.

Tommy pointed out that there may be a bond bubble in several segments of the bond markets.

This chart from his speech at the Jyske conference shows how bonds out- performed shares even during the credit crisis.

global-bonds-2010-

He showed how some segments of the corporate bond yields are near…

global-bonds-2010-

20 year lows. This is what a bond bubble is about… low yields.  This means that bonds are expensive.

However Tommy looked at some segments of the bond market that still offer potential.

Here is another slide from his presentations.

global-bonds-2010-

Summed up this slide says to me: There are still opportunities in high yield investment grade bonds. Avoid the below investment grade (BBB) issues.

Some bond issues he reviewed included the bonds below:

Name: New World Resources Miners   (NWORLD)

Bond: 7.875% 2018

Rating: BB-

Yield:  7.13%

Name: Rhodia Chemicals RHA

Bond: 7% 2018

Rating: BB-

Yield: 6.30%

Name: Obrascon Huarte Lian Construction OBRAS

Bond: 7.375% 2015

Rating: BB-

Yield: 8.57%

Name:  Virgin Media Cable VMED

Bond: 9.5% 2016

Rating: B+

Yield: 6.05%

Name: Campofrio Food Group Food CPFSM

Bond: 8.25% 2016

Rating: B+

Yield: 7.68%

Be sure to check with your investment adviser for current bond yields as they continually change.

Leung also  mentioned high yielding equities.

With the global economy in a shaky recoverywith continued high US and Western European unemployment and… since equity markets had bounced strongly after the recession, we are likely to see a period of high uncertainty volatility and low growth in stock markets.

Yet we face great inflation risk.  The huge debt and public spending in both the US, Europe and Asia will at some time lead to global inflation.

The normal investments thus are equities, high yielding bonds, commodities, real estate or one’s own business.

If bonds  are expensive and equities risky, where does one go?

High yielding equities may be the answer.

Jyske Global Asset Mangers (JGAM) believe this and have produced a report “High Dividend Paying Stocks” that identifies 54 high yield shares.

JGAM wrote:  As the next few years most likely will show subdued economic growth, we believe that less cyclical companies and companies paying high dividend yields have become even more attractive.

With interest rates at historic lows, money in the bank generates little or no return, while the yield from government bonds -2.6% for the 10-year Treasuries – is not that appealing. We believe there are a great number of high-quality equities which offer a yield in excess of cash and bonds.

In addition to their attractive dividends yield above that of cash and bonds, most also offer good prospects for long-term growth.

We have prepared a list of companies we find interesting. High dividend yield stocks tend to be less risky and volatile than growth stocks, as long as they keep pumping out the dividend. This may partly be due to investors being content with sitting back and collecting their checks when the market gets rough. Please note though, they are still stocks and in case of a new contraction, these may to varying degree be negatively affected by this.

Here are seven of these shares that I like and will review at our October 7 to 10 International Investing and Business Course.

American Water Works Co USA USD  provides drinking water, wastewater and other water-related services in multiple states and Ontario, Canada. The Company’s primary business involves the ownership of regulated water and wastewater utilities that provide water and wastewater services to residential, commercial and industrial customers.

E.ON AG E.Germany EUR operates in power generation and gas production businesses.
The Company’s operations include electric generation at conventional, nuclear, and renewable-source facilities; electric transmission via high-voltage wires network; regional distribution of electricity, gas, and heat; power trading and electricity, gas, and heat sales.

Endesa, S.A. Spain EUR generates, distributes, and trades electricity in Spain, Italy, France, Portugal, North Africa, and Latin America. The Company distributes natural gas, operates co-generation plants, and treats and distributes water.

Enel S.p.A. Italy EUR 3 generates, transmits, distributes, and trades electricity.
The Company operates hydroelectric, geothermal, and other generating plants. Enel, through subsidiaries, also provides fixed-line and mobile telephone services, installs public lighting systems, and operates real estate, factoring, insurance, telecommunications, and Internet service provider businesses.

Veolia Environnement France EUR operates utility and public transportation businesses. The Company supplies drinking water, provides waste management services, manages and maintains heating and air conditioning systems, and operates rail and road passenger transportation systems.

Land Securities Group Plc UK GBP a property investment and management company. The Group invests in real estate, including offices, shops and shopping centres, out of town retail locations, supermarkets and industrial/warehouse facilities throughout the United Kingdom. Land Securities’ portfolio also consists of a small percentage of hotel, leisure and residential properties.

Suntec REIT Singapore SGD is a real estate investment trust.
This Asian company was  established with the objective of investing in income-producing real estate properties which are used primarily for retail and office purposes.

You can get the report on all 54 shares including a table that JGAM has prepared mid-August that shows:

#1: Latest share price
#2: Latest paid dividend
#3: Yield  – latest paid dividend as a percent of latest share price
#4: Whether the dividend is paid annually, semiannually or quarterly
#5: Bloomberg recommendation – on Bloomberg analysts following the company stating thei4 recommendation to Buy, Hold or Sell
#6: Bloomberg 12 month Price Target – is an average on the analysts price targets
#7: Morgan Stanley – Their 12 month price target and recommendation
(UW = Under Weight – EW = Equal Weight – OW = Over Weight) and Percentage Upside/downside on the 12 month price targets from Bloomberg and Morgan Stanley.

To obtain this report, contact Thomas Fischer at JGAM at fischer@jgam.com

Or join me with Thomas Fischer, Jean Marie Butterlin at Team Ecuador, David Cross, my webmaster, Bob Shane  and Ann Russell Roberts for our October seminar…coming up in the Blue Ridge with all its autumnal glory!

Enroll here. $749 Reserve here –  $999  Reserve for two

I also believe there is excellent opportunity for income and growth in real estate… especially in Florida and Ecuador.

This is why we are continually adding Ecuador properties in our Ecuador Multiple Listing like this house in Guayaquil.  Here you gain rental income potential and appreciation potential when inflation surges.

Guayaquil House

guayaquil-house-for-sale

2 story, 3 bedroom, 3 bath home.  Large European style kitchen, guest bathroom, foyer, living room dining room, laundry room and a very large backyard. Ciudad Celeste is near the Babahoyo River.   Upgrades on closets, lighting and cabinets.

This is a gated community with tennis court, olympic size swimming pool, social area, gym. Maintenance fee is $55 a month.

See more details and contacts under “Guayaquil House” at our Ecuador MLS.

Gary