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Fixer Upper Smalltown USA


Our last real estate project has been a Fixer Upper in Smalltown USA.

Real estate prices continue to fall giving us a chance to get fixer upper real estate while the bargains last.

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This was the fixer upper.

Real estate… imagination… research for value… creativity… and a bit of elbow grease create five powerful profitable combination… especially in…

guest-house

depressed real estate markets. See how you can use these five qualities to beat inflation below. Here it is now.

of  stock and bond markets.

Merri and I like investing in real estate… especially in places like Florida where prices have fallen so dramatically and created so much value.

Our current project is in a small central Florida town where we purchased 16 acres… with orange groves… and a house in bad repair.

The process of fixing has begun. First this garage… had a guest house that had been almost…

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abandoned.   Now it looks like…

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this.  Outside and…

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in.

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This process fills part of Merri’s and my  creative desires as it…

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adds fun and value into out lives.

Prices are down and may fall more, but the demographics support.

Unemployment can continue to stall Florida’s real estate recovery. Plus there was a huge wave of 5 year balloon mortgages in 2005… that may create another wave of defaults.  So real estate in Florida could take another hit.

Keep these short term facts in mind but look at the long term demographics.

A USA Today article “Where will everybody live?” By Haya El Nasser outlines three significant facts about this.

First, the American population has risen from 200 million to 300 million in 39 years. At present growth rates the next hundred million will come in only 34 years!

Second, today each American owns 20% more developed land (housing, schools, stores, roads) than 20 years ago. By the 1990s 1.7 acres of land was developed for each additional person.

Third. More people need more space.  100 million additional people will need 70 million new homes and 100 billion square feet of non residential space.

Inflation supports real estate investments.

Construction costs are not going to fall! Normal inflation and increased demand from emerging markets for cement, steel, timber and other basics assure this. Plus environmental concerns will continue to slow acceleration of supplies as well.

Another reason for real estate investments in the US is changing utility. For example my mom’s home which was once the bastion of suburban WASPs is now filled with Mexicans, Chinese and Ukrainians. Our builder friend tells me that at least half his home buyers are first time immigrants who use a family plan (the whole family comes over pitches in and buys a house). This means that a single house is once again becoming more popular as a place for two, three or even four generations to live together rather than just one.

House lots used to be 5,000 square feet minimum. Now they can be 2,500 square feet. That’s a big change in utility.

Technology is altering the concepts of time and space so…property (like the farms we live on) that was once pretty useless, or land in the desert like the dry part of the land in southeast Oregon suddenly has a new utility. This is especially true for tens of millions of boomers who will be highly mobile when they retire.

Next, we need to compare US property prices in global terms. Sometimes the forest is hard to see because of the trees and real estate values are hard to see because of local comparables.

Prices of housing in the US may seem high, when you compare them with US house prices of five or ten years ago.

What happens when we compare US real estate prices to those in other industrialized countries like France, England, Denmark and such instead? The thought. “We ain’t seen nothing yet” may arise!

There is another reason that Merri and I like investing into real estate.   There is a local fundamental utility that is easier to understand and see.

We always invest with the understand that there is always something we do not know.

A December New York Times article “11 Secretive Banking Elite Rules Trading in Derivatives”  by Louise Story explains why when it says:

On the third Wednesday of every month, the nine members of an elite Wall Street society gather in Midtown Manhattan.

The men share a common goal: to protect the interests of big banks in the vast market for derivatives, one of the most profitable — and controversial — fields in finance. They also share a common secret: The details of their meetings, even their identities, have been strictly confidential.

Drawn from giants like JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the bankers form a powerful committee that helps oversee trading in derivatives, instruments which, like insurance, are used to hedge risk.

In theory, this group exists to safeguard the integrity of the multitrillion-dollar market. In practice, it also defends the dominance of the big banks.

The banks in this group, which is affiliated with a new derivatives clearinghouse, have fought to block other banks from entering the market, and they are also trying to thwart efforts to make full information on prices and fees freely available.

Banks’ influence over this market, and over clearinghouses like the one this select group advises, has costly implications for businesses large and small.

Derivatives are also big business on Wall Street. Banks collect many billions of dollars annually in undisclosed fees associated with these instruments — an amount that almost certainly would be lower if there were more competition and transparent prices.

Just how much derivatives trading costs ordinary Americans is uncertain.

But big banks influence the rules governing derivatives through a variety of industry groups. The banks’ latest point of influence are clearinghouses like ICE Trust, which holds the monthly meetings with the nine bankers in New York.

Even when we use good investment analysts to invest in stocks and bonds, there is a lot more… going on in places we cannot see… we do not know.

We do not like Flipping real estate!

Flipping is a nice concept to buy and quickly resell for a great profit… but this is usually pure speculation. Most flippers end up broke!

We believe in value added real estate investing.

Add imagination to your real estate investment.

Combine the miracles and talents that lay within you. By all means study how to be a better investor or business person each and every day. Use the benefits of modern technology. Create a common sense approach to searching for good value in investments. Develop external disciplines. Don’t spend more than you have. Work. Save. Invest. Hire professionals to help you study the markets. Even study economics and finance if you wish.

But match each of these external steps by also looking within. You are unique. You are a fountain of wealth…get to know yourself better. Tap the incredible power, knowledge and experience you already have. Your wealth not only will grow, but will become better, an everlasting flood of abundance that makes your ordinary journey through life an extraordinary process you’ll never want to end.

Real estate… imagination… research for value… creativity… about of elbow grease create a powerful, profitable combination… even in these depressed times!

Gary

Make Safe More Profitable With the Silver Dip

May 2017 will be my 51st anniversary of being in the investment & finance business.  This is the 49th year since I started talking about international investing, (I started a Hong Kong mutual fund business in May 1968).

Since that time, my investing goals have been based around spotting contrasts and trends.

One current trend is that the valuations of US shares are dramatically overpriced  in every fundamental way.   The Morgan Stanley MSCI Index USA currently sells for 2.81 times book value, compared to the MSCI Europe Index that sells for 1.68 times book value.   The US PE Ratio is 21.2 versus 18.2 in Europe and the average US dividend yield is 2.15% versus 3.69% in Europe.  Shares in Europe on average are a far a better value.

When you use a long time dimension and diversify correctly, investing in value such as this has always created the highest profits and greatest safety.

I use this strategy because using a value strategy also takes the least work and has the lowest stress!

Then I look for ways to add spice and extra profit short term distortions.

For example in 2015 I spotted two distortions.  They were contrasts that  had reaped huge rewards for me and many of my readers 30 years ago.  I quickly issued two reports, one for each trend.  After a  year one of the distortions has already returned 210.58% in the last year.

A new contrast has even more potential in 2017.

One of the reports released, “Silver Dip 2015” looked at potential profits in silver because when the US stock market falls, the price of gold and silver rise.  I have been a gold bug for almost 50 years and spotted this fact long ago.

The “Silver Dip 2016” report reviewed a way to profit from silver and gold because of a mathematical, historical fact.  When the silver/gold ratio rises over 80, silver is more likely to rise than gold.  That ratio is even higher now than it was in 2015 so silver may not create the extraordinary profits this year.

The “Silver Dip 2017” offers a new ideal speculation.

The second distortion, explained below, has greater long term potential and all but guarantees short term profits in gold, silver and the currenct hot speculation.

There is no question that a long term correction is coming.  Only the full timing can be in doubt.  The question we must ask is, “Could the big break come in 2017 and could it break upon us right now?”  The answer is “Yes”.  When the bubble bursts, it can cause the perfect economic storm that makes a few investors, who are ready, rich.

I have been warning readers about this stock market correction (and how to profit instead of lose), since  January 28, 2015.

Zero interest is the sucker punch that can devastate millions of investors.  This is a Ponzi scheme where governments rob money from the future and spend it badly in the here and now.  Each downward economic wave of the last 30 years has created a larger mountain of debt that brings the world closer to an economy where there is no more future money to steal.  The only way governments can afford to borrow more is to take it for nothing.  That’s zero interest.  In worst case scenarios, governments can charge you to borrow your own money.  In Europe some bonds now have negative interest.

shouldn’t pay us anything.  Even worse they could charge a negative interest rate on our bank accounts and lock our money into the system.  The alternative is to invest in a risky, over priced stock market and morbidly weak currency.

Over priced stocks and an over priced US dollar are the third sucker punch!

To date we have been able at least to choose where and in what currencies we invest.  This is where we encounter the one-two-three punch.  The zero or negative interest rate destroys the purchasing power of our savings.  Capital controls lock us into a weak currency or market so we cannot take profits or protect our purchasing power from this inflation and currency loss.

Our savings, pensions and wealth can be floored by a combination of a falling stock market, crashing US dollar and inflation.

The purchasing power of the US dollar will fall.   Trading down is working in many ways.  Even if  pensions can pay what they have promised, the money in dollars won’t buy as much.  Coffee isn’t free with meals.  Many ordinary foods (tomatoes, peppers, almonds and walnuts as an example) and yes, maple syrup become luxuries.

Social Security won’t be as useful either, if it is paid at all.  Could Social Security really default?  The answer is “Yes, it could”.  An October 8, 2013 Reuters article at finance.yahoo said:  “President Barack Obama warned last week that Social Security benefits might not go out ‘on time’ if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling.  Should seniors and disabled Americans really be worried about their benefits if the U.S. government runs out of borrowing capacity later this month?  The answer is YES.”

I can make these predictions based on 30 year trends because I have been writing and teaching global investing for almost 50 years.  Long term experience helps me spot distortions and cycles that have been building for even as long as 30 years.   This experience has helped me steer my readers in the right direction again and again.

I invite you to join me and a small selective group who for the next year will participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi). The purpose of Pi is finding value to protect our savings, pensions, income and wealth from these two devastating economic conditions.

I’ve been watching this 30 year distortion take shape and believe that 2017 could very well be the year of a huge shift.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout 2017 into 2018 with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example, in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!   There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report, “The Silver Dip 2017” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I updated the special report now “Silver Dip 2017” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share my 30 years of experience speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of one commodity offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Silver Dip 2017” reveals how to gain enormous profit potential in the year ahead.

Save $428.95 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of the Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”, the $27  report “Silver Dip 2015” and our latest $297 online Value Investing Seminar for a total savings of $428.95.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” and “Silver Dip 2015” plus the Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

 

Smalltown USA – 4th Front Expands


Last week’s message looked at the benefits of being in Smalltown USA due to a war on four fronts.

The third front appears to be expanding in part at least to the concerns we commented on last week… excessive police force.

Excerpts from a Los Angeles Times article entitled “Mexico protests shooting death of teen at Texas border” by Tracy Wilkinson and Richard A. Serrano confirms this when it says:

The second border death in two weeks roils U.S.-Mexican relations. U.S. officials say a Border Patrol agent was attacked while trying to arrest suspected illegal immigrants and opened fire.

Alejandro Bringas / Reuters

Reporting from Mexico City and Washington — For the second time in less than two weeks, the death of a Mexican national at the hands of U.S. border agents is outraging Mexicans and testing relations between the two countries.

The Mexican government Wednesday vigorously protested the shooting this week of a 15-year-old boy at Mexico’s border with Texas. The boy, Sergio Hernandez Guereca, died of a wound to the face. U.S. officials say he died after a Border Patrol agent opened fire Monday night on a group of Mexicans throwing rocks at the agent, who was attempting to arrest suspected illegal immigrant

Mexican President Felipe Calderon said Tuesday that his government “will use all resources available to protect the rights of Mexican migrants.”

The government “reiterates its rejection to the disproportionate use of force on the part on U.S. authorities on the border with Mexico,” the president added in a statement.

It’s about the Money!

I have no strong opinion on increased regulation on the border.  This is a complex issue.  I do not live there so I am not one to judge.

However I do see that there are economic consequences that affect me… and just about everyone in the world.  The US is spending more and more on security, defense and regulation and less and less on education, health advances and infrastructure.   We have hundreds of miles of fence on the border but our bridges are falling down… our roads have potholes.  Even cutting back in these vital areas… the nation’s spending far overshadows its income. This deficit and the huge debt accumulated so far will affect the US dollar… cause inflation and social disorder.  Which by the way, may create increased stress which will lead to increased drug use… which will lead to… I think you get the picture.

In short, the money will affect all of our ifestyles.

There has always been a movement of people.

One of life’s great ironies, is that the immigration problem in the US is creating immigration concerns in other countries when  Americans leave the US.

A reader commented on this when she wrote:  “Gary, I’ve received your email newsletter for about six months now.  I have been interested in real estate in Ecuador for about a year.  I’ve been to Ecuador twice in the past year, and am going again July 1.  On the one hand I understand your enthusiasm for Ecuador, but on the other I wonder how pushing Ecuador real estate will impact the local population?  Obviously if you are a property holder, it’s a good thing; but if you’re not, but hope to be, outside money could push many locals out of the market.  Is this creating any kind of animosity toward outsiders?  I’d appreciate your insight on this.  I am an economist with a focus on international finance, so I enjoy all aspects of your writings.  Regards.”

My reply was that this movement of people has been a never ending story since the beginning of time..everywhere, neighborhood to neighborhood, city to city, county to county and country to country.

So far the majority of Ecuadorians love us….as much or more as our neighbors here in North Carolina’s Blue Ridge mountains.

Most Ecuadorians cannot afford property because the locals were pushed out of the market by the Spanish about 500 years ago…just as American natives in the US were pushed out by the English, Germans, Irish, Scots, Italians, Chinese and others who arrived here.

Our arrival in Ecuador creates jobs, hope and a chance that many more Ecuadorians will be able to own their own land.

However the problem goes beyond just a few investors arriving from the US, Canada, Span, Italy and many from Colombia and Peru.   This is a time of transition for Ecuador with the final phase of the colonial hierarchal system nearing its end.  Whether the locals in Ecuador like it or not…just as people in many other countries do not like it, we all live in a global economy.   Many Americans did not like selling so much property to the Japanese in the 1980s.  The Floridians gripe when the Snowbirds come south. Yet they sell. they take the Snowbirds’ money and if they are too fed up, the Floridians move to North Carolina… where the North Carolinians gripe about the inflow of Floridians.

I am a full blooded American…born and raised in the USA…as you can get yet for most of my life have been an immigrant. First I was a long nose foreign devil in Hong Kong.  Then a Yank in England… then a Snowbird in Florida… then a gringo in Ecuador and a Floridiot in North Carolina.

I wear an all American wardrobe beginning with my American Converse tennis shoes (made in China), my American Wrangler jeans (made in Mexico), my American Fruit of the Loom underwear (made in El Salvador) and my American Van Heusen shirt (made in Bangladesh).

So even if I had stayed in my hometown, unless I had planned on running around shoeless and naked, I would have encroached on people in other countries…pushed up property prices for factories… created jobs… helped feed families… but also created pollution in third world nations.

My first book “Passport to International Profit” was published in the early 1970s and included a chapter on “border blindness.”  This chapter looked at how political borders are illusions that support hidden agendas for the few who encourage them. 

It said: Borders are transcended by almost all human emotions. Get a pretty Italian and handsome Irishman together and they will fall in love. Put a Mexican with a cheaper tomato next to a hungry Canadian and the Canadian will get out his loonies and buy the tomato. Put an Englishman and Frenchman in a sinking ship and they will both bail water.

The market place of humanity tramples borders. The deepest nature of our existence supports free trade and free movement of all to anywhere in the world.

I have never argued for or against globalization and or people crossing borders… legally or illegally.   I do believe though that right or wrong… human nature being what it is… globalization will continue to expand.  Also the poor will continue to move to places where they can work and earn.

I also believe that excessive expenditures to try and stop the tide of these forces can put a currency, economy and even an entire country at risk.

Modern communications and transportation have made globalization even more likely.   For example in Ecuador broadband has changed the way we can live in Cotacachi. 

We are, at the deepest level of our being, all citizens of the world.  It is logical and correct that we trade with those who serve us best…whether they bring products to us (like the tomatoes, shirts, shoes, pants and even underwear) or we go to the product (real estate abroad).

I have found that if one treats people with fairness and respect, these courtesies will be returned.  This was as true when we moved from Hong Kong to England to Florida to Ecuador to Ashe County, North Carolina…where Floridians are called “Floridiots” by many Blue Ridge locals.  Also, I’d like to note that on our real estate tours for over 6 months, we see properties being sold from month to month…AND the interesting thing is that these properties are being bought by Ecuadorians themselves!

How would I like to see this globalization evolve?

I can sum this up by quoting some dialogue from my novel the “65th Octave”.

In this book, the hero and heroine, Robin MacAllen and Talking Panther, stumble across a group of Controllers who try to gain control of the world’s economy. These Controllers accumulate huge amounts of shares and dump them after creating terror in the marketplace. With their extensive cash hoards, they buy up the market for pennies on the dollar. Released well before the September attack on freedom, I worried the premise was far fetched. Now the plot hardly seems dramatic enough!

Here is one of Talking Panther’s dialogues.

“In the beginning, we were one. We were in the middle and this was good. All knew the other and all were in harmony with nature. Then some of us wandered and left the middle. Some went west. Others east. We lost touch.

“In the east and the west as they settled, they forgot that there was a middle. For their sons, the east and the west became the middle. Those in the west saw the sunrise and called it the beginning as those in the east saw the same sun setting and called it the end. The difference was confusing and the confusion made the difference an issue.

“In the beginning we were one. We were united by all that was common.  Then as we moved we became united by all that was different. Spread apart the view was beyond the vision of the eagle and it became easier to look at the horizon than beyond.

“Few could see that we are still part of a whole.

“This was the beginning of ignorance and its son fear. Fear made each feel less and made each want to be more. Fear blinded the truth that all are equal and that we really are all one.”

My preference is that we all got along… we are all honest… we get rid of most rules and regulations and live by a few simple ideals based on self respect and respect for others.  I however am not expecting this to happen anytime soon.

I expect the border situation to deteriorate. I expect more rules… more regulations and a reduced lifestyle for most.  The recent events on the border reinforces this belief.

My solutions are to look for good value investments in commodities, shares and real estate… diversified globally.  Plus to work hard at keeping a micro business that is fun, fulfilling and makes a positive contribution to society and the world.

Why Micro a Business?

Small is now more beautiful than ever before.

Every other year Jyske Bank has a wonderful summer investment seminar and I have had the privilege to speak at these seminars for many years.  Merri and I have been invited again for this summer’s learning and festivities.   We look forward to Jyske’s August 17, 2010 seminar.

The seminar always begins at the Copenhagen headquarters in a grand old building in the center of town where the bankers speak a little and feed us a lot of beautiful, fresh food in the company dining room.

I am always impressed that the bankers themselves wait on tables and serve us.

The building’s history gives us a bit of architectural awe and since Jyske are not normal bankers they really do work hard to entertain. Normally there are 70 to 100 delegates from all over the world. I have met Australians, Ecuadorians, Swiss, Germans, Danes, Swedes, Taiwanese, Canadians, French, Austrians,  Ukrainains. Bulgarians, Ghanans, Spanish, British and  South Africans to name a few and we all have a genuinely fun time as well as learn a lot.

I was especially impressed with a speaker at one Jyske, Ian Pierson, the head futurist for British Telecom. He is really a bright guy, but I was a bit astounded when he said “British Telecom is working on the premise that we won’t pay for telephone calls in a decade”.

I am less amazed now.

Ian was author of the book “Business 2010″ as well and  one comment he made was, “In the future a company’s value will be its ideas, less its size and experience”.

Let me clarify that small can still be  profitable.

Merri and I continually pride ourselves for having one the the smallest but most profitable web based businesses.

How rich can you become by starting small?

We have probably more cash in the bank than we’ll ever spend. We have our 252 acre farm with two houses and five cabins in the Blue Ridge… owned free and clear.

We have our Florida home with a 12 acre orange grove… our Ecuador beach apartment… Ecuador beach condos… a Cotacachi house and apartments there plus our hotel.

ecuador-passion

Our Ecuador beach condo balcony.

Plus we have the hotel.

Cotacachi-dining

 All of this is owned free and clear..  paid for and supported by our small micro web business.

We have no debt in Ecuador… or anywhere… period.

Yet we are one of the tiniest businesses around.  Merri and I work from home offices deep in the woods of the Blue Ridge, or tucked into our Florida grove and in hidden deep in Ecuador. Our hotel has staff yes. So too does our farm… but our web business has just Merri, me, one part time and our webmaster.

The point? You do not have to have a huge operation to earn and live very well.

And we try to stay that way! Small (but profitable). This keeps life simple… easier to enjoy.

Plus small businesses tend to attract less rules, regulations and government interference.

Your own business greatly increases your chance of becoming financially independent even when your business remains small.

Join Merri and me in Copenhagen for another big value.  The strong US dollar makes this the year to enjoy Europe. The rising US dollar  for Jyske’s August seminar in Copenhagen dropped the fee from about $2,050 to $1,700, a 15% discount.

See details about Jyske’s bi annual Copenhagen seminar here Global Wealth Management Seminar.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety in 2020

The most important investment you can make in 2020, is in yourself. 

Invest in more time.  Invest in less stress. Invest in greater security.That’s why four years ago we created the Purposeful Investing Course (PI) because when it comes to finances, there are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

The core model portfolio we teach in the PI Course rarely changes, but is highly diversified in thousands of shares around the world… so there is higher long term profits, less stress and greater safety.

The portfolio consists of 19 country ETFs.  During the four years since we created the Purposeful Investing Course and set up a $40,000 real time portfolio at Motif Brokers, we have held the same 19 shares and have only traded three times.

The portfolio started with $40,000 and has risen to $53,591 ($49,015 in shares and the balance in accumulated cash).

The portfolio did really well from 2015 to 2018, better than the DJI Index.  Then as the US dollar grew in strength it fell behind.

The chart below shows the actual results of thos portfolio compared with the S&P 500.

motif

 

This good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around investing models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Canada, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Spain, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of theseall good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in all the shares of the MSCI Index in each good value market reduces long term risk.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last four years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2020 I celebrate my 54th anniversary in the investing business and 52nd year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal Investing Course.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Mexico protests shooting death of teen at Texas border

Smalltown USA – War on Four Fronts


Smalltown USA will benefit (relatively) from war on four fronts.

smalltown-USA

Merri and I happily arrived back at Little Horse Creek  over the weekend!  This was the view yesterday as I wrote this note.

The cool mountain weather… lack of unnatural sounds… freshness of the air and water are as refreshing as the lightening bugs at night under a Milky Way and pitch black starry, starry skies.

Plus there is a certain comfort being secluded in deep woods with an abundant food supply and no crowds… noise or traffic around.

These qualities of comfort and isolation are growing in value because of this quote you”ll want to remember… “The Mexican cartels are not just about crossing the U.S. border — they’re about developing a multinational operation”.

This fact about the drug cartels could and probably will dramatically affect your life… and mine… and my family’s… and just about everyone in the Western world.

The conclusion of this  particular message is so disturbing to me that I feel compelled to first remind you (and reaffirm this fact to myself) that every generation has its cross to bear.   There are times when it is hard to remember that every problem creates opportunity. This is such a case.

Mark Twain wrote about this in 1899 when he penned a note that said:  “I have been reading the morning paper. I do it every morning–knowing well that I shall find in it the usual depravities and basenesses and hypocrisies and cruelties that make up civilization, and cause me to put in the rest of the day pleading for the damnation of the human race. I cannot seem to get my prayers answered, yet I do not despair.”

So let’s tie several facts… get some conclusions… and hope they ARE NOT correct.

Then let’s start figuring what to do personally for the betterment of ourselves… our family’s future and hopefully the rest of the world.  This is just in case our guesswork comes true.

We’ll enter the problem with a quote from Christian Science Monitor.  (There are links to the numerous articles we look at in this message at the end so you can delve more deeply into this scenario if you wish).

This February 2010 article by CSM staff writer Gordon Lubold entitled  “QDR: Pentagon revises its long-held two-war doctrine” says:

A key Pentagon strategic document released Monday, called the Quadrennial Defense Review, increases the emphasis on a new range of threats, including cybersecurity. It departs from the military’s traditional goal of being able to fight two conventional wars at once.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates’s efforts to focus the Defense Department on the wars at hand – not the ones being waged in the minds of futurists fixated on China or Russia – is the guiding principle behind a new strategic document that sets the Pentagon’s priorities for the next several years.

In the past, the QDR has demanded that the US be prepared to confront two major, conventional wars at one time. But noting that the US is already engaged in two wars, Gates said Monday that it’s time to rethink the “construct” of national security.

The new QDR outlines that the Pentagon must be prepared to fight a “much broader range of security challenges,” including high-tech ones in cyberspace, as well as the ones in which the US is currently engaged.

This does not sound good to me… but makes sense by the fact that the US is already fighting wars on three fronts and could soon see a fourth (in Korea).

Where’s the third front?

We can see the third front already building five years ago in an August 2005  USA Today article by Danna Harman of August entitled “Mexican drug cartels’ wars move closer to U.S. border”.

That article said:  CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico — The kingpins of this hemisphere’s illegal drug trade are no longer Colombians.

Mexican federal agents patrol the streets of Nuevo Laredo, a city of 350,000 on the Rio Grande. Nuevo Laredo been hit hardest by the drug wars’ violence this year.In the largest shake-up since the 1980s, Mexican cartels have leveraged the profits from their delivery routes to wrest control from Colombian producers, senior U.S. drug officials say. The shift also is the result of the success Colombian and U.S. authorities have had in cracking down on Colombia’s drug lords.

“Today, the Mexicans have taken over and are running the organized crime, and getting the bulk of the money,” says John Walters, the White House drug czar. “The Colombians have pulled back.”

Walters says Mexican drug lords are calling the shots in what the United Nations estimates is a $142 billion a year business in cocaine, heroin, marijuana, and methamphetamine and other illicit drugs on America’s streets. One consequence of the new dominance of the Mexican cartels is a spike in violence along the 2,000-mile U.S.-Mexico border, where rival cartels are battling law enforcement authorities and one another for control of transit corridors.

The problem started being acknowledged later.  An 2009 MSNBC article by Alex Johnson “In Mexico’s drug wars, fears of a U.S. front
Violence that has killed thousands is beginning to cross border, officials say” is an example.

The article said:  With U.S. forces fighting two wars abroad, the nation’s top military officer made an important visit last week to forestall a third.

He went to Mexico.

Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made the trip to confer with Mexican leaders about the Merida Initiative, a three-year plan signed into law last June to flood the U.S.-Mexican border region with $1.4 billion in U.S. assistance for law-enforcement training and equipment, as well as technical advice and training to bolster Mexico’s judicial system.

For awhile we have tried fighting this third front war with Mexican military.

Now that facade has come tumbling down as evidenced by an article in the  Arizona Republic by by Erin Kelly and Ginger Rough “President Obama to send 1,200 troops to Mexican border”

Here is an excerpt:  President Barack Obama will deploy up to 1,200 National Guard troops to help secure the Southwest Border against Mexican drug cartels, White House officials said Tuesday.

Obama also is requesting that Congress approve $500 million for enhanced border protection and law enforcement activities as part of an emergency spending bill expected to come to the Senate floor this week.

Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and a bipartisan group of border state lawmakers in Congress have been urging Obama to send in National Guard troops to respond to the high-profile violence along the U.S.-Mexico border. More than 20,000 Mexicans have died in drug-related violence, and Arizona law enforcement officials have complained of increased home-invasion robberies and other crime in the state’s border towns.

Giffords has been calling for the deployment since immediately after the March 27 murder of Cochise County rancher Robert Krentz.The White House has not said exactly where the troops will be stationed, but Giffords said no place is as desperate for help as Southern Arizona.

Will 1,200 soldiers be enough?

This is anyone’s guess… and I sure am not military strategist but the Arizona article article goes on to add:

While Giffords welcomed the announcement, the White House action is not expected to satisfy everyone. Arizona Sens. John McCain and Jon Kyl, both Republicans, unveiled a border action plan last month calling for the immediate deployment of 3,000 National Guard troops – more than twice as many as Obama is sending.

Would 3,000 soldiers on the Mexican border be enough?

A  June 1, 2010 USA Today article by Chris Hawley, “Mexican cartels go beyond their borders” outlines one reason why small military presence on the US border may not be enough.

That article says:  ACAYUCAN, Mexico — On a balmy night, five sport-utility vehicles full of gunmen roared up to the gates of the immigration detention center in Acayucan. They were on a rescue mission.

The gunmen pointed assault rifles at the guardhouse. They entered without firing a shot and loaded up 13 Guatemalans who had been detained while traveling to a training camp run by the Zetas, a Mexican cartel. Then they sped off into the night, according to the Mexico Attorney General’s office.

The April raid is part of a disturbing new trend in the U.S.-backed war against Mexico’s drug cartels as Mexican traffickers turn to Central America for reinforcements, ammunition and protection by corrupt authorities, experts say.

“The Mexicans are gaining ground here, and the police can’t stop them,” said Helen Mack, president of Guatemala’s Myrna Mack Foundation, which studies crime trends.

Three days after the April 19 raid in Acayucan, six of the freed Guatemalans were recaptured in Tlaxcala state, hundreds of miles away. They told the attorney general’s office they were on their way to a Zetas training camp in the northern Mexican state of San Luis Potosí.

On May 19, at least three Guatemalans were among a group of eight gunmen who attacked Mexican marines patrolling near San Carlos, a town hundreds of miles north of Guatemala, according to the Mexico navy.

In Guatemala, police found a Zetas training camp complete with an arsenal of assault rifles and a stash of 500 grenades last year, according to the Guatemala Ministry of Defense.

Another Zetas weapons stash found near Guatemala City included 3,800 bullets and 560 grenades with markings indicating they had come from the Guatemalan military, the ministry said.

“There’s been so much focus on the U.S.-Mexico border that people forget about the back door,” said Fred Burton, vice president of Stratfor, an Austin-based global intelligence firm.

“Entire regions of Guatemala are now essentially under the control of (drug trafficking organizations), the most visible of which is the Mexican group known as the ‘Zetas,’ ” a U.S. State Department report said in March.

The Mexican traffickers are also strengthening their grip on Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador, the U.S. State Department says.

Honduran drug czar Julian González issued a warning in December about the growing presence of the Zetas, the Sinaloa Cartel and La Familia Michoacana, another Mexican drug gang. He was gunned down soon afterward.

The Mexican presence reflects a major change in the way drugs are smuggled, said Mauricio Cárdenas, a Latin America expert at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.

In Guatemala, street gangs that once used homemade weapons are now wielding assault rifles provided by the Mexican cartels, Mack said.

“The Mexican cartels are not just about crossing the U.S. border — they’re about developing a multinational operation,” Cárdenas said. (my bold).

Where is the battlefield?

CENTRAL-AMERICA-MAP

There are a number of concerns here.

Third Front Concern #1:  deterioration of US civil liberties. If US territory becomes a war zone… what law applies…civil or military?  We have already seen this conflict and confusion over… who has rights and what are they… growing via the war on terrorism.  The signing of Arizona bill, SB 1070 by Governor Jan Brewer is another sign of the struggle in human rights. This bill is the broadest and strictest immigration measure in generations and makes the failure to carry immigration documents a crime and gives police broad power to detain anyone suspected of being in the country illegally.  The brings on the age old question… which is worse… the crime or the law?

Do I have the right to walk around without a document saying who I am in my pocket?  Does someone have the right to detain me if I am doing no wrong except not having the document?

I have clients who live in border states complaining about this problem.  One delegate from South Texas told me that he was stopped three times just driving in the country, doing nothing wrong, except perhaps having a car with tinted windows.    The stops, he said, “were not pleasant”… the TSA agents were on the verge of being rude… hostile… for no reason. He made the mistake… just once of trying to make a joke and was severely reprimanded by the officer.

Yet the problem of reduced civil rights may get worse.

An excerpt from  February 23 New York Times article by Randal C. Archibold entitled, Wave of Drug Violence Is Creeping Into Arizona From Mexico, Officials Say says:

PHOENIX — The raging drug war among cartels in Mexico and their push to expand operations in the United States has led to a wave of kidnappings, shootings and home invasions in Arizona, state and federal officials said at a legislative hearing on Monday.

The drug trade has long brought violence to the state, which serves as a hub as illicit drugs and illegal immigrants are smuggled to the rest of the nation.

Over all, in this city and surrounding Maricopa County, homicides and violent crime decreased last year. But the authorities are sounding an alarm over what they consider changing tactics in border-related crime that bear the marks of the violence in Mexico.

A home invasion here last year was carried out by attackers wielding military-style rifles and dressed in uniforms similar to a Phoenix police tactical unit. The discovery of grenades and other military-style weaponry bound for Mexico is becoming more routine, as is hostage-taking and kidnapping for ransom, law enforcement officials said.

The Phoenix police regularly receive reports involving a border-related kidnapping or hostage-taking in a home.

The Maricopa County attorney’s office said such cases rose to 241 last year from 48 in 2004, though investigators are not sure of the true number because they believe many crimes go unreported.

The violence in Mexico — where more than 6,000 people were killed in the last year in drug-related violence, double the number of the previous year — is “reaching into Arizona, and that is what is really alarming local and state law enforcement,” said Cmdr. Dan Allen of the State Department of Public Safety.

“We are finding home invasion and attacks involving people impersonating law enforcement officers,” Commander Allen told the State Senate Judiciary Committee, whose chairman, Jonathan Paton of the Tucson area, called the hearing. “They are very forceful and aggressive. They are heavily armed, and they threaten, assail, bind and sometimes kill victims.”

Chief David Denlinger of the State Department of Public Safety said that while tactics like home invasions might not be new in the drug trade, “they are getting more prevalent.”

“Border crimes are not just on the border,” Chief Denlinger said, pointing to posters showing weapons, drugs and people who had been held hostage.

This type of problem in the US could increase the forcefulness of the US law enforcement and make contact with the police less pleasant.

Many of us have experienced the civil rights twilight zone at airports.  Some have found this very disturbing… so much so they no longer fly.   One reader wrote:  If I ever decide to travel by air again I’ll definitely make NC a destination.  We would love to come to one of your events at the farm. Last time I traveled was an unfortunate catastrophe — got some overzealous security guards who first forced my wife to start removing articles of clothing right in front of everyone.  And when I stepped forward to help her because she has a physical disability and could not pull her belt through the belt loops on her pants (which they had demanded she do), they decided I too was a potential threat to world peace.  Long story, but to cut to the chase it was a very unpleasant experience being treated like a criminal (never been arrested, hadn’t even had a parking violation in 20 years, no radical associations, etc.) for simply trying to help my wife get her belt off.  And so I swore I’d never set foot in another airport as long as I live.  Guess what?  That was three or four years ago and I haven’t missed flying for a single moment since.

When doesn’t a person have the right to help his or her spouse… or a handicapped person?

Such sad tales may grow.  In fact it was recently reported in a USA Today article “Pushy fliers may show up on TSA’s radar  by Thomas Frank. The article says:  WASHINGTON — Airline passengers who get frustrated and kick a wall, throw a suitcase or make a pithy comment to a screener could find themselves in a little-known Homeland Security database.  The Transportation Security Administration says it is keeping records of people who make its screeners feel threatened as part of an effort to prevent workplace violence.  Privacy advocates fear the database could feed government watch lists and subject innocent people to extra airport screening.

There is no simple answer either.  TSA employees also have rights. There are immigration problems in Arizona that threaten the safety of law abiding citizens.  Yet history suggests that the pendulum usually swings too far.  The loss of rights… originally aimed at protecting rights… could well be worse than the protection.

Third Front Concern #2:  More global entanglements and a war that cannot be won.

Remember the DMZ?

Since war and Korea are in the news, let’s look at the…

korea-dmz

DMZ in Korea from…

korea-dmz

Wikepedia.

Yet the Vietnam DMZ and Pakistan today may be better examples of other similar situations which stop winning forces from pursuing their enemy. Such DMZs create wars that cannot be won.  Will US and Mexican troops end up fighting terrorists who are trained in and retreat to Guatemala, and other Central American states?

This leads to the third concern… death by a thousand cuts.

Third Front Concern #3: More Deficits. More Debt… More Money spent that we do not have. More Money withdrawn from positive social needs such as education.

Already the Western world is deeply in debt.  The United States and the US dollar suffer from debt and overspending that really started to grow with Lyndon Johnson’s “Guns & Butter.”

A number of US administrations in a row have turned that concept into a fine art… yet law and order must prevail so more goes into military expenditures… less into education… infrastructure… and other investments that could bring positive social evolution.

This creates a harsher society… one that encourages drug use to finance our enemy.

These three concerns could make parts of the Western world far less comfortable as places to stay.  Smalltown USA could prosper (relatively) for numerous reasons from a war on four fronts.

We’ll see why and what we can do to create opportunity and help stop or slow the negative downwards spiral in the Western world in the next several articles. Stay tuned!

Gary

See why Ecuador can benefit in troubled times.

We’ll look at ways to live, invest, do business during a three or four front war at our June 24 to 27 Quantum Wealth course in West Jefferson… the epitome of Smalltown USA.

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety in 2020

The most important investment you can make in 2020, is in yourself. 

Invest in more time.  Invest in less stress. Invest in greater security.That’s why four years ago we created the Purposeful Investing Course (PI) because when it comes to finances, there are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

The core model portfolio we teach in the PI Course rarely changes, but is highly diversified in thousands of shares around the world… so there is higher long term profits, less stress and greater safety.

The portfolio consists of 19 country ETFs.  During the four years since we created the Purposeful Investing Course and set up a $40,000 real time portfolio at Motif Brokers, we have held the same 19 shares and have only traded three times.

The portfolio started with $40,000 and has risen to $53,591 ($49,015 in shares and the balance in accumulated cash).

The portfolio did really well from 2015 to 2018, better than the DJI Index.  Then as the US dollar grew in strength it fell behind.

The chart below shows the actual results of thos portfolio compared with the S&P 500.

motif

 

This good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around investing models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Canada, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Spain, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of theseall good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in all the shares of the MSCI Index in each good value market reduces long term risk.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last four years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2020 I celebrate my 54th anniversary in the investing business and 52nd year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal Investing Course.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

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