Tag Archive | "Small Town USA"

Anchor of Value


Merri’s and my secret investing weapon has been a personal anchor of value.

Learn how to get a FREE report, on how to earn and live through good value, below.

See how that anchor helped me buy this manor house in the Cotswold.

gary-scott-in Gloucestershire

This huge, old manor house, built over a century,beginning in the 1700s… had wonderful views and our next door neighbor was Princess Anne at Gatcomb Park.  Buying it was a pretty big step for a middle class American from Rockwood Oregon, but I was able to do so due to my anchor of value.

Recently as part of our 50th year anniversary I was interviewed on an investment webinar and the moderator asked me this question:

There are a lot of real estate investors who have been successful buying, selling and holding real estate in their own backyards.  A few have been successful investing in 2-3 markets in the USA.

But it is rare to find a successful real estate investor who has been investing in real estate all over the world.

And even more rare to find a real estate investor who has been successfully investing all over the world for FIFTY (50) years!

You are that guy!  What’s the secret?

My secret to freedom has been to use an anchor of value that I developed to invest in American residential real estate.  Though I created this anchor in the 1960s it has helped me invest in real estate, stocks, bonds and business around the world to this day.

The philosophy behind this strategy and tactics can be used to create your own anchor for investing in shares, bonds, currencies or commodities  as well as real estate.

Let’s look at value first.  The anchor helps me understand that I am investing for profit, not to be right. 

Based on the “profit rather than pride” principle  there are two (and only two) reasons why we invest in real estate.   To rent for income or to resell the property for more than we had invested.

Based on this reasoning, there are three ways to spot value in residential property.

#1: The first way to spot value is based on how much NET income can the property generate after taxes, insurance, maintenance and management costs.

#2: The second method is based on relative comparables.  Calculate how much similar properties in the area are selling for.  Also find out how much similar properties in other areas are selling for.

#3: The third method is to calculate how much a property would cost to replace with new construction.

What is the anchor?

We can build an understanding of residential value by understanding the monthly mortgage payment or rent a buyer or renter can pay.  In the USA, for example, the typical bank limit on monthly mortgage payments is about 28 percent of your gross monthly income.  Banks generally will let a borrower devote up to 28 percent of their household income in a mortgage payment and expenses (including taxes, insurance and HOA dues).

If there are many families in an area who earn an average of $4,000 a month, then this will be a good market for rentals at $1,000 a month.

This simple formula provides a basis from which all dependable value can be measured.   This is the science of the valuation.

Using this approach, years ago, Merri and I have been able to spot dozens of contrasts, distortions & trends in real estate value, everywhere.

An added factor to add into the mix is appeal.  You could call appeal the art of the valuation.

Sometimes an investment can be a really good value, but a hard sell.  The best investments are underpinned by appealing good value products and services.

Investing in what you know (and  enjoy) helps you understand appeal and makes it easier to mesh the art and the science of valuation.

For example, Merri’s and my background have a lot in common.  Merri’s formative years were in Georgia and mine in Oregon.  There were many differences between these states.  Yet as baby boomers we have much in common.  We saw the same shows on TV, Howdy Doody, the Cisco Kid, Ed Sullivan, Gunsmoke. Roy Rogers, etc.  We read the same books in school such as the Bridge over San Luis Rey, the Red Badge of Courage.  We saw the same movies, heard the same radio , listened to the same Golden Oldies, read the same news, the same magazines, so it is not surprising that our tastes are pretty much the same.

The fact we are NOT special gives us the ability to understand appeal.  There are 60 million baby boomers who have that same background.  This gives us confidence that if we like a house, others will like it as well.  This gives us good judgement (from an investing point of view) when it comes to appeal.

Our strategy is to buy houses that appeal to us which have a reasonable potential to return a decent income (and likely appreciate) based on rent in the $1000 a month range.

For example, we recently looked at a nice house just offered and with access to a wonderful lake, 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom, in very good shape with an asking price of $169,000.  The house fit the $1,000 profile and because it had a very nice guest cottage as well, meant we could likely charge $1,200 a month rent.  Merri and I looked the place over and felt just fine offering $140,000, knowing we could go up to $145,000.

How did we come to such a price?

The math worked like this.  The house will rent for $1,200 a month.  The rental market is strong and at this price it will rent quickly.  That creates an income of  $14,400 a year.  Our target ratio of price to rent is 10%.  We want a 10% cash flow, so $14,400 a year rent justifies a $14,400 price.

First, the area where we are buying is in a bit of a bubble.  Prices have started to rise beyond a reasonable expectation of return.  We did not think the house would rent for $1,300 or $1,400 a month so we were not willing to rise to the $169,000 price.

We did not get that house.  In fact this was the fifth house in a row on which we were outbid.  Because faith is vital to successful investing, we need to stick to our strategy, and our strategy is based around that 10% cash flow.  That percentage is sufficient to give us a reasonable return on our investment.

Just because everyone else is paying too much for houses, does not mean we should make this error as well.

Anchors of value help us remain logical so we don’t invest in trends that are turning into bubbles.  Anchors of value help us avoid giving back profits because we stayed in a trend for too long.

For example, my real estate anchor of value first created in Portland, Oregon in the 1960s helped me successfully understand good real estate trends in Hong Kong, Fiji and London, then the Isle of Man, Naples, Dominican Republic and Ecuador and eventually led Merri and me to invest in Smalltown USA in Mount Dora, Florida.

Real estate has always been in our blood.  I do not know why but by the age 21, I had already built a $2,000 windfall into seven duplexes and a house  on 14th Ave (mortgaged then to the hilt) in the small town of Gresham, Oregon.  I could have continued to buy, sell and rent real estate in Oregon but the wanderlust bug bit me and when I was offered a job to sell mutual funds in Hong Kong, I began to travel throughout Asia.

Owning those duplexes and that house left me with an anchor of value.  I understood rents (at that time the 1960s) from $125 in Smalltown USA to $250 a month in cities.

When I arrived in Hong Kong in 1968 real estate rentals were about the same as in downtown Portland.

Fear had created good value in Hong Kong.  In 1968 there were communist riots and bombs being set off in the streets.  The first day I arrived a motorcycle policeman had his leg blown off by a terrorist bomb.  The Chinese army was massed on the border and there were continual talks about an invasion. Hong Kong businessmen were fleeing.  Real estate was literally being given away.

Life went on.  We all figured out the fastest route to the British and American war ships in the harbor for a quick exit in case the Chinese decided to invade.  We watched out for boxes in the street that could be bombs.  Then we just got busy with life, working and earning so we could pay our rent.

I rented a huge apartment on Shouson Hill Road overlooking the ocean and the village of Aberdeen.  The owner wanted to sell this block of apartments but I had no money or experience then.  He was so desperate that he made a deal.  Instead of paying him $250 a month rent I invested $250 into mutual funds for him.

Then in 1970 the company I worked for sent me to London to spend a year at its headquarters developing a European sales training program.  I rented a nice house near Golders Green tube station on Finchley Road.  The rent was the equivalent of $250 a month.

In 1971 I was moved to work in San Francisco and I purchased a home in Petaluma, California.

petaluma

I bought this house in Petaluma California for $33,000 and assumed a 5% GI mortgage. Payments were about $175 a month.

In 1972 I returned and worked in Hong Kong for another four years.

The early 1970s was a time of serious inflation.  During that time I watched the prices and rents of real estate at the duplexes in Gresham, the house in Petaluma, and especially in Hong Kong rise… a lot!

In 1976, when I moved from Hong Kong back to London and noticed that London real estate was priced about the same as it had been in 1970.  This puzzled me. Why had London property prices remained flat despite inflation?

On investigation, I learned that there had been a huge real estate crash in 1970 continued to distort and dampen real estate prices six years later despite the rampant global inflation.  The British pound had also collapsed dropping 35% versus the U.S. dollar from 2.4 dollars per pound to a new all time low of 1.52 dollars per pound and at one point hit a low of one dollar per pound.  To my way of thinking, London houses, which I thought were already very cheap by world standards, just became 35% cheaper.

london-house

The house in Bedford Park.

I could not resist and began property shopping and eventually bought a five bedroom house in Bedford Park in West London. I made a 10,000 pound down payment and took a 25,000 pound loan to meet the 35,000 pound asking price.

First, I was right. London property had been under priced.  I was able to sell the house four years later for 115,000 Pounds.  I made a profit of 80,000 pounds.  But the currency change helped enormously too.  The pound had risen to over 2.2 dollars per pound.  My 80,000 pound profit was now worth $215,000.

I was willing to make this  purchase because I could rely on a mental anchor of value… a residential property that a working person could rent in the $250 a month range.  I was investing in what I knew and was comfortable with.

Manx real estate came next.  In the 1980s I had an offshore corporate formation business and noticed that Isle of Man overseas companies were as good as Jersey and Guernsey structures, but cost less than half.  This led me to believe that the Isle of Man would increase in popularity as a financial center.  While visiting, Merri and I discovered that a long depression had forced over 2,000 properties onto the Island real estate market (population was only 60,000).  We began taking real estate buying tours to the Isle of Man because rents and house prices were so low.  Some delegates purchased remodeled beach front condos for $12,000.

Then while conducting a seminar in Florida, we saw that real estate in Naples, Florida was much less expensive than on the East Coast of Florida.  Rents in Miami  and Ft. Lauderdale seemed really high to us, but Naples prices were much lower.  Merri had been living in Naples for some time and found a wonderful old large house just off the beach.  We bought it for a song (compared to the price we sold it for!)

Naples prices skyrocketed while we were living there and in 1995 we visited Ecuador.  Merri and I saw Ecuadorian beach front lots that would cost two million dollars in Naples that were selling for $5,000.   We saw we could buy a house on Ecuador’s beach for a price that we understood and were comfortable with.

Cotacachi hotel El Meson de las Flores

A hotel we purchased in Ecuador.

By 2009 Ecuador prices has skyrocketed and Florida real estate faltered.  We began selling out our Ecuador real estate and buying again in Florida.

In Florida we saw great rental value.  We also wanted to live closer to our children and grandchildren.  We knew that studies had shown that 80% of adults 45 and older believe it is important to live near their children and grandchildren.  Those 60 million people, just like us, were thinking differently about where they would buy and/or rent a home.

We selected Mt. Dora as a small town to buy rental real estate for numerous reasons, but the first feature was its proximity to our daughter and grandson.

I can look back through this 50 year travel and real estate adventure and see that my decisions and investments have all been linked to that original anchor of value.

We live in a turbulent world and can expect rapid change, hidden agendas, huge shifts in communication.  When we are caught in the currents of such rapid shifts, our anchors of value can help us remain steady and secure.

Gary

Get the FREE report How to be of Value

Amazing Deal on Ocean-View Land in Puerto Cayo, Ecuador


See how to find good value in Small town USA and Ecuador.

First, here is a paid advertisement:

This is a “first notice” announcement on an incredible offer for raw land in Puerto Cayo, Ecuador.

The land is 1.4 Hectares (150,000 square feet or 3.5 acres). It sits perfectly located on the ridge just across from the beach leaving the owners with amazing ocean views and a vertical advantage from the ocean. Directly across from the land is city zoned public beach access with both expat and local neighbors right by.

The owner is currently offering to sell the land as six (6) individual lots of 22,000 square feet each with measurements of 100 ft x 250 ft. Each lot is being offered for only $169,000.

Yes, that’s 22,000 square feet of ocean view property located in walking distance from town for only $169,000.

As a note; alternatively the owner will accept $700,000 for the whole property.

Whether looking to build a personal home, invest or develop, we can’t emphasize enough how much we like this offer. The property has already been cleared. We are a full construction and development agency so feel free to discuss construction options and ideas with us. Regardless of if you work with us, we can help you with answers surrounding requirements, costs, etc.

IMG_0546-small IMG_0547-small IMG_0548-small

A little about Puerto Cayo:
Cayo offers a small town community sense of safety and lets you be about as busy as you choose to. We don’t even have traffic lights here in Cayo. We have a small local grocery store, an abundant fresh produce market and numerous restaurants. Cayo does have a 24/7 medical clinic for anything typical. All in all, anything you need is offered locally. If for some reason you find something specific you need that is not available, it’s a gorgeous and quick drive up the coast to Manta.

The community and people of Puerto Cayo are absolutely wonderful. It’s truly a community that has left us feeling welcomed since we moved here personally. Aside from also owning our own organic farm here, we are involved directly in community relations and helping to just brake ground on Cayo’s first animal rescue center.

IMG_0144

Cayo in general:

Shot off bluff above town:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/3427932/IMG_0143.jpg

Fishing boats on the beach in town:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/3427932/IMG_0184.jpg

Boardwalk in-town:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/3427932/IMG_0185.jpg

Shot of Flamingos off the beach:
(Taken almost directly in front of the beach where the land is located)
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/3427932/flamingos2.jpg

As always, we are here to help with even your general issues or questions around Ecuador. Whether it’s for visa services, residency, investment or even travel related, we are happy to help and have dealt with it. We are a family operated business and if we don’t know the answer personally, we’ll help ensure you find the right place to get it.

We are so happy to have you join us as neighbors in the community and look forward to more great times to come.

contactus

Sincerely,
The PuertoCayo.com family!
email: Sean@puertocayo.com
Phone: (310) 584 − 7221
EC #: +0994436094

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We DO NOT investigate properties when they are advertised so be sure to complete your due diligence. Always use an independent Ecuador attorney who represents you (not the seller) when you buy real estate in Ecuador. We also recommend that you rent, become familiar with Ecuador before you buy.

Home Sweet Home in Small Town USA

There is a great story about how to earn through positive environmental activity at the New York Times website about Sweet Home Oregon and second growth logging (1).

I grew up in Portland… had many loggers in the family and recall those huge trucks with about 3 logs to fill them barreling down and out of Mt. Hood. Zig Zag, Clear Lake, Little Crater Lake, Frog Lake, Frying Pan Lake around Mt. Hood and the Coastal Range were our stomping grounds as teenagers.

logging truck

Oregon Logging truck circa 1970.

The New York Times article explains how in Sweet Home, Oregon and East Linn County, two hours south of Portland, one in five families earns less than the federal poverty threshold. In 2012 Oregon had the nation’s highest percentage of residents receiving federal food stamp assistance, according to the census.

A federal study found that from 2011 to 2013, more than 15 percent of Oregon families were sometimes uncertain about getting enough to eat.

Sweet Home Oregon’s economy was based on the fact that in the late 1980s, the Willamette National Forest produced more wood than any other national forest in the country.

Change reduced the timber harvest on federal land in Oregon, Technology reduced the need for manual labor and essentially ended the logging industry in Sweet Home.

Yet there is opportunity in this change.

The national forest is still a huge resource that attracts hikers and cyclists. Turnarounds have happened in other similar towns. Merri and I have observed this in our area. Damascus, Virginia is one example, just down the mountain from our North Carolina farm.  It was a train stop in the 1920s and thrived on logging and mining.

After nearly crumbling it is now an active, prosperous small town as a trailhead for hiking the Appalachian Trail and cycling the 34 mile long Virginia Creeper bike path.

virginia creeper trail

Our daughter Eleanor with Merri and me riding the Virginia Creeper Trail.

New Potential in Forests

The old, blue-collar economy is gone, but the forest and natural resources create a new opportunity.

Sweet Home for example has a project built upon academics, local, state and federal representatives and grants to tap the riches of the forest new ways.

Look for opportunity in change.  This site has looked at Ecuador and Small Town USA as two great areas of opportunities.

Here are several ways to tap into this new wave of business.

#1: Gain value added. This is the era when small and flexible are beautiful. Modern community technology makes it possible for even micro businesses to virtually integrate. (I’ll give you a specifics in a moment.)

#2: Invest in real estate. Property value is high in these areas where it is currently perceived to be depressed. You can get incredible bargains.

#3: Invest in alternative power and sustainability. The demand for fresh water…living trees… clean soil… clean air will grow.

#4: Invest in natural health. The current social economic lifestyle is flawed. The acquisition of stuff creates too much work…leading to too much stress…with too little time…and poor nutrition…leading to pharmaceutical and surgical intervention. This intervention costs too much and is not a pleasant, effective approach that optimizes maximum human efficiency.

#5: Invest in efficiency. Ashe County and four others around us have the highest percentage of residential fiber optics connectivity in the USA. We can have 50 mbs broadband, no commute, low property tax and affordable costs of living.

Based on this belief, I have been working on a plan at our farm in North Carolina building homes from local sustainable timber.

We are turning dead wood, like this poplar log, into a value added product.

portable mill

This poplar sitting right behind our house died a few years ago and dropped branches on the house all winter. Last spring we trimmed off the branches and last week a bad winter storm brought it down…we cut it in three pieces and dragged them to one of our fields.

We set up portable mills in the summer and cut over a thousand board feet of nice poplar planks.

We used this wood to renovate and expand the rental units we own.

sustaibable timber

One of the cabins we built from dead wood.

Whether you are thinking to move out of or into the USA, think small town.  Living can be better and values are fantastic.

Gary

If you are interested in having a full time home or weekend cabin in a small town USA forest, click here.

(1) New York Times “Sweet Home Logging – Second Growth”

Orange Blossoms & Smalltown USA


Orange Blossoms… Smalltown USA and profits that surprise.

Florida-train

Train at Mt. Dora.

We all possess connections to infinite knowledge. When we let go and let our intuition lead us we can gain wonderful surprises… opportunities and luck.

Yesterday’s message looked at the benefits Merri and I gained when we let our intuition lead us to invest in Smalltown USA, Florida. We gained unexpected income and health benefits.

This message shows how we may reap some capital rewards from following our intuition as well.

Real estate has been pretty depressed in the US. Merri and I followed the leads we gained and bought… believing our gains would come in the long term.

However a February 27, 2011 article in the Orlando Sentinel entitled “Orange Blossom Express could ferry commuters between Lake County and Orlando” shows that we may have a special capital benefit.

Here are excerpts.  A long-discussed train gains steam when a state agency agrees to help pay to upgrade tracks.  A proposal for another commuter train is gaining steam: The Orange Blossom Express, which would shuttle passengers between Eustis and downtown Orlando with stops in Apopka and Tavares.

For Lake County residents, it could mean commuting to Orlando to work or taking in a Magic game.  The Orange Blossom train also could link with SunRail lines in downtown Orlando, supporters say, to create a regional passenger-rail network.

“This is really a unique opportunity for Central Florida,” said T.J. Fish, executive director of the Lake-Sumter Metropolitan Planning Organization. “I tell people that if we have train stations, that land will be close to the value of beachfront property. That’s been proven all over the country.” (bold is mine)

The track improvements — estimated at $18.4 million — would stretch nearly 60 miles, including spurs to Mount Dora, Winter Garden and an industrial complex near Silver Star Road in Pine Hills. The tracks would have to be replaced on about a 22-mile segment between Eustis and Plymouth to allow trains to travel up to 60 mph.

In the short term, faster-moving freight trains would spur industrial and manufacturing growth near the rail line, creating a boon for the area’s economy, supporters say. In the long term, the track upgrades would allow passenger trains.

Florida-train

Train at Eustis, Florida.  Both train stops Eustis and Mt. Dora would be near our Florida real estate.

There is controversy about this and one never knows till the train whistle blows… but if this train comes in our extra gains will be substantial.  Though Merri and I did our home work before investing in Lake County… we never could have guessed that this type of added potential might come.

By using our intuition and paying attention to our hunches we have in a bad economic time gained additional income… extra health benefits and perhaps a wonderful capital gain… all unexpected.

Do not be trapped by the tyranny of reason.  We all need to use our brains and experiences in our lives, business and investing. Let’s don’t ever exclude the heart as well.

Gary

Phytobiodermie has arranged discounts for our readers and has set a special schedule so delegates at our April 9-10, 2011 course can have a massage the day before or after or in the evenings of the 9th and 10th.


Orange Blossom Express could ferry commuters between Lake County and Orlando

Smalltown USA Ashe County


Smalltown USA Ashe County offers many living and business benefits as well as great real estate value.  See why below.

Merri’s and my business has thrived for many years because we try to avoid financial fashion and always look ahead for value instead.

blue-ridge-photos

See why this home on 47.8 acres offers such good value.

This search for value has led us to the long term focus we have had on three important trends… the falling USA dollar… investing business and living outside the USA and Smalltown USA.

Back in 2005 way before the real estate crash our site looked at five factors that suggested we would see growth in Small Town USA.

Smalltown USA Value Factor #1: Some parts of America were growing increasingly overvalued. Our 2005 message warned about Naples, Florida (where homes were 84% overvalued).  We also warned about  Merced, Ca. 76.7%; Salinas, Ca. 74.8%; Port St. Lucie, Fl., 72.2%; and Stockton, Ca., 72.0%.  We reviewed how 41 of the 65 significantly overvalued markets were in California and Florida.

That message also looked at  how the most undervalued markets were in small towns in Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina and Alabama.

Smalltown Value Factor #2: One of the largest demographic groups in history (Baby Boomers) about to retire.

Smalltown Value Factor #3: A majority of boomers plan to move when they retire and a majority of the movers plan to settle in small towns 25 or 30 miles from where they now live.

Smalltown Value Factor #4: Boomer surveys show that most Boomers plan to keep working part time when they retire.

Smalltown Value Factor #5: Technology now makes it easier than every before for these boomers to move to small towns and continue to work part time.

Smalltown Value Factor #6:  There is a large decline in the purchasing power of corporate pensions.

Smalltown Value Factor #7: The loss of Social Security and the US dollar’s purchasing power will force many  boomers to move to paces where the cost of living is less expansive.

In other words, Small Town USA offered good value and the changes that demand would grow was strong.  This fact remains in place today.

Take for example Ashe County, North Carolina where Merri and I live part of the year.

As of December 2009 the cost of living index in Ashe County was very low 83.2  compared to the U.S. average of 100.

Here are some demographic facts about Ashe County.

Industries providing employment: Manufacturing (26.7%), Educational,health and social services (16.2%), Construction (10.9%), Retail trade (10.3%).
Type of workers:

•    Private wage or salary: 75%
•    Government: 13%
•    Self-employed, not incorporated: 11%
•    Unpaid family work: 1%

Races in Ashe County, North Carolina:
•    White Non-Hispanic (96.1%)
•    Hispanic (2.4%)
•    Other race (1.1%)
•    Black (0.7%)
•    American Indian (0.6%)
•    Two or more races (0.6%)
(Total can be greater than 100% because Hispanics could be counted in other races)

Median resident age:
42.1 years
North Carolina median age:
35.3 years

Males: 12,031
(49.3%)
Females: 12,353
(50.7%)

Plus between the recession and the cold winter this year real estate has really dropped in price as this chart shows.

ashe-county-real-estate

There are some very interesting values in this part of the Blue Ridge.

Take for example this 47+ Acre mountain tract with 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home (shown above) bordered by the Jefferson National Forest.

blue-ridge-photos

Blue Ridge Mountains are in sight.  This is a very private mountain cabin.

blue-ridge-photos

This mountain cabin has wood floors, gas log fireplace, covered wrap porch and full walk-out lower level with expansion potential.

This is an almost new cabin with all wood interior 2-bedrooms, bath and great room on the main level.

blue ridge cabin

The great room, dining area and kitchen are placed in an energy-efficient cluster.

blue ridge cabin

An efficiently designed step saving kitchen with ample storage and work space is perfect for the chef who does not want to spend coveted time in the mountains toiling in the kitchen.

There are two bedrooms and a full bath on the main level.

A full partially finished lower level features expansion potential with a multipurpose room that can be used for additional sleeping space and a game room area with lots of storage space.

A large covered wrap porch is ideal for outdoor entertaining and relaxing with the views with the sounds of Nature all around.

blue ridge cabin

Total privacy, views and lots of room for outdoor entertaining.

Extending the dining experience outdoors is this detached screened picnic shelter where you can enjoy the view while entertaining friends and family.

In addition to the picnic shelter, this second building will work nicely as a workshop or garage.

Jefferson National Forest borders this 47.8 acre tract along one side and the back adding to the privacy. This tract was timbered a few years ago but young hardwoods and evergreens are already reaching for the sky.

Trails meander throughout the property providing excellent adventure, hiking and horseback riding opportunities to explore all that this unique mountain tract has to offer. Located with in the Mount Rogers Recreation Area, this would be perfect for horses.

There are multiple potential building sites with views.

There are also numerous natural mountain springs and streams.

The asking price is $239,500.

You can get details about the property above from Jeff Neal a Realtor/Broker/ABR at Ashe High Country Realty.
email: Jeff@AsheCountyRealEstate.com

Jeff will be at our North Carolina Seminar this June 24 to 27 to answer questions about Blue Ridge real estate.

Merri and I feel great comfort having our farm in the Blue Ridge. This is the type of place where one could live through most economic and social disasters… plenty of good water…. fresh air and fuel… plus enough land and wildlife to provide food.

Yet we did not buy into Smalltown USA as protection from disaster. That is just frosting on the cake.

History suggests life will just get better and I am all for that and still want to be in the mountains during the summer where it is cool and filled with peace, quiet and beauty…. away from the maddening crowd.

Learn more about a great Ecuador grain for weight loss and better health without sacrifice here.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety in 2020

The most important investment you can make in 2020, is in yourself. 

Invest in more time.  Invest in less stress. Invest in greater security.That’s why four years ago we created the Purposeful Investing Course (PI) because when it comes to finances, there are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

The core model portfolio we teach in the PI Course rarely changes, but is highly diversified in thousands of shares around the world… so there is higher long term profits, less stress and greater safety.

The portfolio consists of 19 country ETFs.  During the four years since we created the Purposeful Investing Course and set up a $40,000 real time portfolio at Motif Brokers, we have held the same 19 shares and have only traded three times.

The portfolio started with $40,000 and has risen to $53,591 ($49,015 in shares and the balance in accumulated cash).

The portfolio did really well from 2015 to 2018, better than the DJI Index.  Then as the US dollar grew in strength it fell behind.

The chart below shows the actual results of thos portfolio compared with the S&P 500.

motif

 

This good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around investing models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Canada, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Spain, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of theseall good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in all the shares of the MSCI Index in each good value market reduces long term risk.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last four years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2020 I celebrate my 54th anniversary in the investing business and 52nd year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal Investing Course.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

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