Tag Archive | "Scientific method"

Why Simple Investing Works


Here is one reason we want simpler solutions for building and protecting wealth in an increasingly complex world.  Modern technologies in communication have altered the way we converse with and learn from academia and science.  Changes in the models of disseminating thought are making old methods of discovering truth less reliable.

See three tips for learning simple truths below.

The leading structure of finding truth in most Western cultures is the Scientific Method.

science buddies

Image from www.sciencebuddies.org  Learn more about the Scientific Method.

A couple of New York Times articles, “Beyond Publish or Perish,  Academic Papers Look to Make a Splash” (1) and “Scientists Who Cheat” (2) show why we cannot trust the scientific method as much as before.  Perhaps it is more accurate to say, we can trust the method, but not the scientists who claim to use it.

“Beyond Publish or Perish”  says: The benefits to academics of generating media attention may be subtly skewing their research. “The pressure is tremendous,” said James Heckman, an economist at the University of Chicago and the winner of a Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science. “Many young economists realize that they win a MacArthur or the Clark prize, or both, by being featured in The Times.”

The article tells how the mainstream media has grown in importance for delivering scientific economic information.  Some scientists now tailor their academic papers for direct distribution to journalists, rather than writing papers and allowing the news media to discover them.

The good in this change is that we may hear about new discoveries faster.  The bad is that mainstream media runs on drama.  This can lead scientists to fudge their results for the sake of attracting publicity rather than finding truth.

“Scientists Who Cheat” tells how cheating in scientific and academic papers has grown worse.  Researchers at some of the nation’s most prestigious universities have been implicated.  The process of how scientists share their data, how their peers review it and who is allowed to enforce academic standards needs to be changed.

When we live in a world where truth is distorted, what do we do when the experts cannot be trusted so much?

One practical solution is to rely on simple, time tested approaches to understanding value and truth.

To see truth, we can look at contrasts and distortions. Tension caused by divergences from truth reveal a lot.  Alfred Nobel said it like this: One can state, without exaggeration, that the observation of and the search for similarities and differences are the basis of all human knowledge.

Here are three tips from great thinkers on how to refine simplicity.

Simple Tip #1:  Realize that simplicity really does work.  Issac Newton said it like this: “Nature is pleased with simplicity. And nature is no dummy.”

Simple Tip #2:  Be willing to adapt to simplicity and open to truths even if they fly in the face of popular belief.  Winston S. Churchill says it like this:  “Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened.”

Simple Tip #3:  Look for simple truths that apply to everyone.  William James says it like this:  “The god whom science recognizes must be a God of universal laws exclusively, a God who does a wholesale, not a retail business. He cannot accommodate his processes to the convenience of individuals.”

The greatest tool for resolving complexity in investing, is simplicity of thought.  We don’t need to worry that our simple truths are incorrect either.  Quantum reality tells us that we can never know absolute truth.  The Observer Effect tells us that we cannot see the absolute truth without changing it.  Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle reveals a further fundamental limit on our precision.  We cannot know the position and momentum of anything simultaneously.  Marcus Aurelius made the point clear“Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact.   Everything we see is a perspective, not a truth.”

Let’s continually shift our opinions and perceptions toward simple truths that work easily.  When we rely on mathematics and simplicity it’s easier to enhance our wealth despite the noise created by an increasingly complex world.

Gary

(1) nytimes.com Beyond publish or perish scientific papers look to make splash

(2) nytimes.com Scientists who cheat

See three simple facts that can improve your investing now.

The Ultimate Investing Secret

The ultimate investing secret is the simple fact that investment opportunities come and go in cycles.  

Because we have been watching the trends for decades, we spot many distortions  we saw decades ago as they create repeat opportunities.  For example, our 1986 report “The Silver Dip” showed readers how to turn $250 into over $45,000 in a year.   When we spotted the same repeat distortion in silver’s price in 2015, we issued our report “Silver Dip 2015”.   Those who acted on the report made as much as 200% in 2016.

There is another phenomenal distortion that has been building for a number of years.   Here is how I (and you can as well) am cashing in on this trend.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.

Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Now I see those circumstances headed our way again.

The Dow Jones Industrial recently soared past 20,000 and reached an all time high.   So why aren’t average investors all rich?   There are several answers.  First, even though the Dow has peaked, for the last 17 years the US stock market has been in a bear trend.  You’ll see why in a moment.  Another reason why the investors have not done so well is because of currency loss.

One final reason why profits have not been so good.  Someone, probably someone you trust, has been stealing from you.

One of the biggest obstacles in profiting from the upcoming circumstances has been and remains the financial system.  The reality is that banks and brokers have been structuring investments that are sure to lose.  They sell you on these investments and then another division of the very same bank (or broker) that recommended the investment, bets against you.   The bank knows that the investment is toxic.  To add insult to injury, many of these same institutions cheat you on the way in and the way out (when you buy and sell a share) of the bad investment.  Most brokers and bankers are interested in your money making them rich, not in helping increase your wealth.

Three Patterns Create 50% profits.

Despite the predators on Wall Street who are waiting to take big gouges out of your savings and wealth, equities are still the best place to invest for the long term.  This chart from the 24 page Keppler Asset Management Asset Allocation Review shows that over the past 80+ years equities have dramatically outperformed other types of investments.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

Good investments require a relentless search for value.   Your investments have to be good enough to reap an outstanding profit even after the parasites siphon off their part.

To take advantage of the once every 17 year circumstances, I chose to track Keppler Asset Management who continually researches developed and emerging markets globally.  Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisors.  Keppler compares the value of each share in each market based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  From this study of monumental amounts of data Keppler develops a Good Value Stock Market Strategies.  The analysis is based on long term, rational, mathematical facts and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

From Keppler I learned that market timing is not the way to get these high profits.  Another graphic from the Keppler Asset Allocation Review explains why.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

A dollar invested 88 years ago in Treasury bills rose to $20.58.  The same dollar invested in U.S. stocks over the 88 years grew to be was worth $4,677, UNLESS you missed the best 43 months.  Literally all of the the Dow’s growth in 1,056 months came in 43 of those months.   Your odds have been one in 24, better than roulette perhaps, but not good enough.  Plus even after these odds, the predators are going to take their cut.  You have to ask, “Am I that good at timing?”

The better alternative to timing is to invest in long term indexing based on value.  Long term strategic investing in market indices reduces the amount of trading.  Low trading activity is important because trades are where investors are most vulnerable to predatory tactics.

A part of the long term strategic trading is to invest in low fee diversified Country Index ETFs.  This simplifies the search for value because it focuses research into lumps.

A comparison of US versus German stock market indexes gives an example of lump research and you can create good value, low cost, diversified portfolios that offer maximum potential for profit as they reduce risk.

Keppler’s research shows that Germany’s stock market is a good value market.  Keppler lumps all the shares (or at least 85% of the shares) into the calculations.  There is no attempt to select any one specific share.  Keppler’s research shows that the US stock market index (a lump of about 85% of all the US shares) is now a poor value.

Germany has the world’s fourth largest economy.  The country is the third largest exporter in the world and has recorded some of the highest trade surplus in the world making it the biggest capital exporter globally.  Yet German shares have been overlooked.  German share prices are good value.

For example, recently the German Stock Market had a relative price to book value ratio of  .78,  a relative price earnings ratio of  0.87 and a relative dividend yield of 1.12.  The US Stock Market has a much higher relative price to book value ratio of 1.29, a relative price earnings ratio of 1.07 and a relative dividend yield of 0.81.  German shares cost much less, compared to the values and earnings.  German shares pay much higher dividends as well.

Keppler predicts that the US Stock Market (which is ranked as a sell market by Keppler) will have an annual index gain for the next five years of  3.1% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 21.7%.  The same calculations for the German Market predicts an average annual index gain over the next five years of 7.5% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 47.3%.

Which would you rather buy,  a 47.3% return sold for 78 cents on the dollar or a 21.7% return sold for $1.29 on the dollar?

You can forget about any specific share in the US or Germany and invest into an index (in this case the Morgan Stanley Capital Index) which represents about 85% of all the shares traded on the exchange.

You can invest in ETFs that passively invest in all the shares of the index in stock markets that offer good value.  iShares investment company for example has  an ETF that invests in 85% of the shares traded on Wall Street.

ishres

This ETF is called the iShares USA (symbol EUSA) and in this example rose from $22.91 to $43.40 or 89% in the past five years.

iShares also offers an ETF that invests in about 85% of the stocks listed on the German Stock Exchange (Symbol EWG).  EWG rose  from $19.70 to $28.13  or 42% in the past five years.

ishares

Keppler’s lump research shows that Germany is a good value market.   One simple (even very small) investment in iShares Germany MSCI Index ETF gives you a portfolio  of almost all the shares traded on Germany’s largest stock exchange in Frankfurt.  This ETF is a share traded on the New York Stock Exchange.  The ETF invests in 85% of the shares in Germany.  This ETF is a passive fund that does not try to outperform the growth of the German Stock Market.  The managers simply track the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index.  The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the German Index which is composed of the stocks of 54 different German companies and covers about 85% of all the German equities.  Germany’s ten largest companies compose about 60% of the index.  These ten companies are:  BAYER (Health Care) composes 9.91% of the index – SIEMENS (Industrials) 7.89% – DAIMLER (Consumer Discretionary) 7.04% – BASF (Materials)  6.81% – ALLIANZ (Financials) 6.65% – SAP STAMM (Info Tech) 5.69% – DEUTSCHE TELEKOM (Telecom Srvcs) 4.46% – DEUTSCHE BANK NAMEN  (Financials) 3.66%  – VOLKSWAGEN VORZUG (Consumer Discretionary) 3.18% – BMW STAM (Consumer Discretionary)  3.15%.

You lump your research.  You lump your investment.  This makes it easy to capture the powerful economic circumstances that are unfolding now.

Just investing in Germany is not enough.  There are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.   Plus there are 11 good value emerging markets.  With even a couple of thousand dollars you can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

Investing in many stock markets through ETFs gives you opportunity in the second pattern of the falling US dollar.  Preserving the purchasing power of your savings and wealth requires currency diversification.

The strength of the US dollar over recent years is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   In 1980, the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern has been growing, is seriously overdue and could create up to 50% extra profit if you start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

For example because of fears about the euro, EWG, the German ETF dropped 9 percent in 12 months.  These declines are created by currency concerns.  When the euro regains strength, the shares have the potential to appreciate even more.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but includes links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hot the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

I look forward to the next 17 years and sharing how to have more than enough money for the rest of your life.

Gary

 

Logic Defrocked


You can truly achieve anything you desire because the chains of logic are being unlocked.  Messages at this site often look at how and why you should escape the Tyranny of Reason.  Our era is ruled by logic and reason and a huge chunk of logic has just been unfrocked… by mice and rats.

rat

Image from Telegraph article on rats

Logic is supported by science and the double blind study is a cornerstone of the scientific method.  Our lives are impacted every day by ideas and products derived from blinded research, from medicine, to psychology and the social sciences, to forensics, to marketing.

Despite science’s knowledge of Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle asserting a fundamental limit on precision the blinding studies remain one of society’s basic tools to give the appearance of precision.  You could even call double blind studies a foundation of reason.

Now a scientific study has shown a flaw in scientific studies, one more reason to escape the Tyranny of Reason.

An Economist article “Pain perception – Sex, writhes and videotape – Rodents feel less pain when men are around. For scientists, that is worrying” tells the story.

Here is an excerpt:  THOSE who study animal behaviour have long feared that their mere presence might affect the outcomes of their experiments. Few attempts have been made to see if it actually does so—but a study just published in Nature Methods by Jeffrey Mogil of McGill University in Montreal and his colleagues has tried to correct that deficiency.

Dr Mogil’s team injected the ankles of mice with zymosan A, an inflammatory agent, and monitored what happened when, in some cases, an experimenter stayed in the room, sitting about half a metre away, and when in others, he or she did not. They evaluated evidence of murine pain, caught on videotape, using the “mouse grimace scale”. This measures ear and whisker position, eye-squeezing and the bulging of noses and cheeks to gauge an animal’s level of distress.

Both when the mice were left on their own and when they had any of four female researchers in the room with them, the injections induced visible distress. But when any of four male researchers was there, the animals showed significantly fewer signs of pain. The same was true when the team did the experiment on rats, and also when they used a different pain stimulus, formalin.

Nor was the actual presence of a human required. When the team substituted the four men with T-shirts that those men had slept in the night before, the rodents responded in the same way. Women’s T-shirts, like women themselves, did not reduce apparent pain—indeed, when placed in the room next to a man’s shirt, a woman’s shirt was able to abolish its effect. Nor was the phenomenon caused only by the scent of human males. Bedding slept in by male dogs, cats, rats and even guinea pigs all produced a similar response.

We must ask… how much of our life is ruled by double blind studies that are incorrect because of this gender flaw?

Or in other words… if you have a dream, desire or ambition that is unreasonable, no matter how unreasonable your desire… go for it!  The reason it is unreasonable may be flawed!

Gary

Economist.com Rodents feel less pain when men are around

Super Thinking defies logic!  This is why you can learn Spanish in three days.

Our Secret Income Producer

Our secret weapon for self publishing profit is search engine success.  The real secret to this success is our webmaster David Cross.

David-cross-images tags:"2012-4-20"

David Cross

David has been our webmaster since our website began in the 1990s.  He is Merri’s and my business partner. We could not run our business as we do without him.   One reason is that he is a search engine optimization expert.

You can learn the tactics we use in webinar that condenses 20 years of practical experience about search engine optimization, and writing for search engines.

For the last 27 years David has worked with companies large and small – IBM, Agora Publishing, AstraZeneca and many small business owners.  He has worked in 22 countries, and lived in six of them.

David’s clients span the globe and represent companies and charities both large and small. From corporate giants to small, one-woman businesses and everything from finance, healthcare, publishing, technology, real estate, veterinarians, alternative health centers and everything in between.

David is an essential part of our web based business and Myles Norin, CEO of Agora, Inc.  wrote:  “I have found David’s knowledge and experience unmatched in the industry. Without David’s expertise and guidance for the past 7 years, we would not be nearly as successful as we are.”

As Senior Internet Consultant to Agora Inc. in Baltimore, MD, he worked closely with Agora’s publishers and marketers and – over a 7-year period – helped to propel Agora’s online revenues from around $20 million to well over $300 million.

David’s webinar will help you gain the types of search engine benefits that large internet marketing companies use.    In this practical course you will learn valuable skills to help you:

  • Attract search engines like Google, Yahoo and Bing to your website
  • Write interesting, compelling articles for real people, while using the search engine’s rules and algorithms to your advantage
  • Discover special tricks, tactics, and techniques you should use to attract search engines
  • Understand the “search engine secrets” you should avoid, and how these can get your site blocked by search engines
  • Learn about the role social media plays in search engine optimization, but why a social media presence is not your first step
  • Capture your visitors’ interest once they’ve arrived at your website, turning interest into action

As a writer, self-publisher or business owner, optimize your writing, and select what you could write for top placement in search engines.  This is of increasing importance to your business.

Over the last 20 years David has worked with businesses, large and small. He has trained writers, publisher, editors and marketers on how to adapt their writing skills to attract search engines while retaining web pages, articles and stories that are still interesting for their customers and prospects.

David has condensed these tips into a training course on Writing Copy for Search Engine Optimization (SEO).

This is an engaging, practical, online/telephone training course on SEO techniques and best practices for writers, authors, publishers and copywriters that will last approximately 90 minutes.

We held this SEO webinar live recently and a recording of it is available for download.

Join David and learn:

  • How to create engaging copy that ranks well in search engines
  • How – and why – to use keywords within your copy
  • How to link your articles together for better relevancy and SEO impact
  • How to convert interest into action for visitors driven through SEO
  • Working with and developing a Master Keyword List
  • Why getting someone to your website via search engines is the easy part of the equation; learn about conversions and how to capture your visitor’s interest, moving them along the path to becoming your customer
  • The value of social media in SEO

David provides slides, practical examples and an understanding of the SEO process that you can add and adapt to your own personal writing process.  You may review at your leisure the valuable information that David shares.

Copy (writing) is still king. Learn how to make your copy relevant to the changing landscape of search engines.

Enroll for the David Cross Search engine optimization webinar here.

Gary