Tag Archive | "risk"

There is Always Risk


There is always risk in investing, business and life… because there is always something we don’t know.

The great scientist, the late Stephen Hawking, was known for many achievements in science.  His books unveiled the great mysteries of the cosmos in simple, digestible language.

Hawking also made many predictions.

Some can make us feel good.… “Modern health care will make 100 years a normal lifetime”.

Others not so… “Humanity only has 100 years left on earth”.

Of course we do not know whether either forecast is really accurate.

However, we can relay on Hawking’s wisest and most accurate prognostication though; “Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change.” 

The ability to adapt, to what we perceive is good or bad, can make us smarter than the smartest man in the world.

Adaptability is such a valuable asset because we can never envision how the future will unfold.

The Wall Street Journal article “Two Can Play at Trade War” (1) provides an example.

The article outlines tariffs that China has placed on US goods in retaliation for the levies on steel (25%) and aluminum (10%) imports from China.

Americans may see lower prices for pork and apples which are hit with the tariffs.

The article says “Greater damage may come from China’s 15% tariff on American fruits, nuts and sparkling wine. Apple growers in Washington State only gained full access to the Chinese market in 2015 and have seen rapid growth in exports from zero three years ago. Sales of American wine to China, almost all from California, grew 10% last year to $197 million, still a small percentage of total production. Such industries now face headwinds to building market share.”

The tariffs may even create some environmental good in the Western US as it could slow down almond production (a very thirsty crop).

California nut farmers are especially vulnerable since China is their largest export market. According to the Golden State’s agriculture department, they sold $530 million in pistachios and $518 million in almonds to China in 2016. For pistachio farmers, China accounts for 55% of total exports. Almond exports are down from five years ago because drought limited production, but sales to China rebounded 6% last year.

The article provided evidence of “How the best laid plans of mice and men go wrong”.  There is no way that these food producers could have anticipated these trade sanctions so they have to adapt.

Merri and I have turned several of our hobbies into businesses to expand our adaptability.

Writing and real estate have been our mainstay businesses but we turned our agricultural hobbies into businesses as well.

We have orange groves at our Florida home.  We raise trout at our North Carolina farm.  These small businesses in food and agriculture are satisfying, fun and add safety in our lives as we always have a food based survival income.

We also grow ginseng.

ginseng

Ginseng growing in our back yard.

The logic, beyond enjoying the process, is:

* Our farm is a natural habitat for ginseng.

* Ginseng prices are margins are high.

* Ginseng grows easily without much labor.

* Ginseng is an important Chinese medicinal root.

* China’s growing economy will increase the demand for ginseng.

ginseng

Planting ginseng at our North Carolina farm.

This all sounds like a good idea, but there is always something we do not know.  The Wall Street Journal article shows how the tariffs could also hurt the market for ginseng.

A Chinese medicinal root is one of the more obscure items on the 15% tariff list, and the impact will fall almost entirely on one county in central Wisconsin around the city of Wausau.  Ginseng from Marathon County is highly prized in Asia, and about $30 million of it is exported annually to China.

When we began planting ginseng many years ago, we could not have guessed that there was this risk.  Fortunately we have no need or plans to sell at this time.  As ginseng root grows so does its potential for profit.

Plus there is another important reason why we planted ginseng… it is an important medicinal root that we can personally use to maintain our vitality and health.

Our original thinking about the financial prospects of ginseng may be flawed, by tariffs,  but  we can still use it for our own natural health or perhaps create a local market, if we decide we need to harvest a crop.

Whatever comes, I’ll adapt.

I hope this reminder will refresh your thought process, so as you look forward into this risky future with equanimity.   If you do, embracing change and risk with an even mind can bring greater contentment, happiness and success.

Gary

Protect Your Wealth From a US Dollar Loss

Here are three steps to multi currency profits.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make you smarter than the smartest man in the world.

sir issac newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market.  His comment was “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence in seeking value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why two of the three exports I use in my Purposeful investing course (Pi) and mathematicians not economists.  I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline in our Pi course.

Use math, not emotion to protect your wealth.

There are time tested mathematical systems that can help you know when to take profits that maximizes gains and minimizes loss.

These systems help you seek value but also create disciplined exit strategies because one of the toughest decisions most of us have is to know when to sell a rising or falling share.

Human nature makes it harder to let winners run, than to cut loses.

To easily spot good value and stick to it, we use Keppler Asset Management  as our first source of data.  We follow the analysis of our friend, Michael Keppler.

Keppler’s analysis begins with a continual researches of corporate information on thousands of shares in 46 major stock markets. Keppler compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Keppler explains why a Top Value Country Selection Strategy for equities is important and says in his analysis: Among the generally accepted reasons for taking a global perspective in investments is the historical fact that no nation can maintain economic and political pre-eminence ad infinitum.

Studies have shown that, regardless of the investor’s national market and currency, diversified global equity portfolios, over longer periods, offer higher returns at lower risk than investments in national markets.

Keppler Asset Management Inc. (KAM) was  founded by Michael Keppler in 1992.  KAM is an SEC–registered investment advisory firm dedicated to finding and exploiting investment opportunities in the global equity markets. Based in New York, they advise institutional investors worldwide and help manage published mutual funds with total assets exceeding two billion US dollars. Plus they advise many private pension funds by specializing in active quantitative portfolio strategies that aim to deliver superior long-term performance and seek to limit risk through a firm commitment to value.

Starting in 2009, KAM was named Best Fund Company in the Fund category, five years in a row, by Capital, a leading German business magazine.

That’s my simplicity secret for keeping track of where to invest.  Using Keppler’s data has served me well for 25 years, allowing me time to get on with life rather than being drowned in a sea of conflicting opinions about what investment to make next.

More good news is that Keppler does not manage individual accounts and though SEC registered and headquartered in New York, does not mange funds for US customers.

That’s why I created our Purposeful Investing Course, one of the few, if not the only sources of Keppler analysis for individual investors.

Here is how to tap into this valuable information on a no risk basis right now.

The Purposeful Investing Course combines Keppler analysis with research on low cost, good value country ETFs.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 country ETFs, along with precious metals.   This is also why this position has hardly changed in four years. During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of  Keppler Asset Management.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally hold now.

70% of the equities is diversified into iShares ETFs that represent Keppler’s eight good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the equities are invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The equity ETFs in my portfolio are balanced with investments in silver, platinum and gold.

Get paid more now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not right now.

This chart from the New York Times article “The Mystery of High Stock Prices” (1) shows that equities pay a higher yield than bonds.

wsj.com

Most Important, Get Paid the Most Now!

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact the chart below shows that US shares pay one of the lousiest yields of the 46 stock markets we monitor around the world.

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.91%.  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.6% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Nine solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay 71% higher yield, 3.27% compared to the US yield of 1.91%.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years. 

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

In a moment, I’ll show how to push that yield to 4.07% per annum without adding additional risk.

keppler62020

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only three times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top (or neutral in the case of Canada and Australia) value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course tracks 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Pi strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

I am updating my plan to increase my average yield to as much as 4.07%.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The average yield of these nine markets combined was 3.27% as of June 2020.  By replacing the three lowest yielding markets, Austria (.64%), Germany (1.83%)  and Japan (2.51%)  with two better yielding neutral markets Australia (4.57%) and Canada (3.54%) the average annual yield on the entire portfolio rises to 4.07%.

4.07% is 154% higher than the 1.6% you can currently earn on AA rated corporate bonds!

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) www.nytimes.com: mystery of high stock market prices

(1) www.wsj.com: Two can play at trade war

The 13 Joys (and Necessities) of Taking Risks


Change brings risk.   Risk is our partner whether we like it or not (mostly we don’t).   Many of the biggest risks that determine the paths of our lives are unexpected, unplanned and beyond our control.  We face such facts every day.  Maybe there is a meteor heading for the roof top or that lottery ticket in our pocket is a big winner?  Some times we rise.  Sometimes we fall.  These are facts.  Risks are our life’s partner so why not embrace them with joy?

meteor

Meteors.  Beautiful… or not?

Modern technology is changing everything in our lives; finances, daily routines, social networks, how and where we work and earn.  Technology has changed how we read, write, travel, meet and make friends, eat, exercise, look after our health.  Literally just about everything we do is changing.

One big change in life that is changing big time is retirement.

A Wall Street Journal article, “The biggest surprises in retirement” (1)  Like surprises? Retirement—for better and worse—will change your life more than you anticipate.  That’s the consensus of those who should know best: the retirees themselves.

The article was based on answers the Journal editors asked readers, about changes in later life, and what surprised them in retirement. The biggest, and best, surprise in retirement, according to many readers, was what happens when one takes risks.  Retirees liked trying and learning something new, risking time, energy and sometimes pride.  Taking risks changed their lives for the better.

What became clear in researching  how to enjoy taking risk was that one fundamental quality:  they key to success… “having resilience”.   Resilience is the ability to bounce back from some real or experienced adversity.  When we are resilient, we simply keep trying until our change is positive and complete.  When we are resilient, we never give up, as so many successful people have told us we must never do!

You just can’t beat the person who never gives up. Babe Ruth

Never, never, never give up. Winston Churchill

Never give up,  for that is just the place and time that the tide will turn. Harriet Beecher Stowe

Never give up.  And never, under any circumstances,  face the factsRuth Gordon

Resilience is the quality that gives us everlasting effort because the process of change, of learning, of growing is no longer a struggle of stress, strain and trouble!  Change becomes a way of living filled with fulfilling achievement that is productive and fun.

These thoughts sent me to work researching this question, “What traits give us resilience?”   One scientific study entitled “Psychological and social aspects of resilience: a synthesis of risks and resources” at the US National Library of Medicine shows 13 qualities that can help us become resilient.

resilience

The article offered a table of 13 resilience traits. (3)

With this in mind, let’s take a look at these qualities, one at a time, in upcoming messages.

The one quality of resilience we will look at in this message is “Purpose and Planning”.   According to this scientific study, the most resilient individuals are seemingly more purposeful and committed to an organized, analytical approach, as well as to a sequential plan of dealing with difficulties or challenges and resolving problems.

Having a purpose is the most powerful driving force because it connects us to what is important in our life and unleashes the greatest energy we can have.  Whenever we are organizing whatever with a purpose, we feel in harmony with our surroundings, even if the activity contains risk.

When we are acting on purpose we feel alive, clear, authentic, meaningful and energized. Purpose creates speak performances as we get in the “flow,” the state of total absorption in which time seems to disappear and we feel content and fulfilled.

Purpose provides emotional, psychological, physical benefits that invigorates and motivates our activity.  Purpose reinforces, stimulates and strengthens our ability to plan.

Planning creates resilience because it reduces risk by eliminating unknown variables.  There are so many unknown in life that we often fear change.  Planning helps us think through what might be and understand what variables might occur so we are ready for them.  When we face expected challenges (rather than surprises) we do not have the same feelings of adversity.

When we plan, we can also direct our activity around the things we can control with the greatest certainty. Our planning reduces the number of variables that are out of our control, and this adds power to our activity.

Planning is the first step to avoid procrastination. Planning is not productivity, just like a jump start is not a source of ongoing energy.  Yet planning is a start and that initiation can be a fun, energizing boost to get us moving along the track we need to follow.

Planning also helps reveal a clear purpose.  However, our deepest, most powerful purpose is not always clear. The most important byways in life do not reveal themselves until we move away down a slightly obscured track.  We might know we are headed in the right direction, but not quite sure where!

Our purpose gains power when it is well articulated first to ourselves and second when shared with others.  A well thought out plan clarifies our purpose and helps us reveal it to others.

Here is a plan that can help you enjoy taking a risk, whether it be retirement, starting a new micro business, trying a new health routine or making a new investment or just about anything that creates change.  Embrace risk.  Recognize that most of the factors that shape our lives are beyond our control.  Next, feel around for a purpose that’s important to you.  Then make a plan outlining the things you can and cannot change.  From this plan just take one small step forward.

Do it again, but make a better plan based on the experience.  Take a bigger  step… and repeat.  This is a formula for resilience.

Life is a never ending series of steps in the right direction… for you.

In upcoming messages, we’ll look at the other 12 factors that create resilience.

Gary

(1)  www.wsj.com The biggest surprises in retirement

(2) www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov: Psychological and social aspects of resilience: a synthesis of risks and resources

(3)  www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov:Personal attributes that are positive for resilience.

One of the 12 factors we’ll review is physical health and how it correlates with coping skills and resilience. Learn more about resilience beyond strength here.

 

 

7 Comes 11 in Business and Investing


Seven facts and 11 actions can help you overcome one of the greatest risks to your wealth.

Census Chart

A sign of death in the US economy.

A Wall Street Journal article “Endangered Species: Young U.S. Entrepreneurs – New Data Underscores Financial Challenges and Low Tolerance for Risk Among Young Americans” shows one of the greatest risks to the American future.

The article says: The share of people under age 30 who own private businesses has reached a 24-year-low, according to new data, underscoring financial challenges and a low tolerance for risk among young Americans.

This trend reflects the rise of fear and cynicism in the Western world.

Start-ups create employment. More important they generate the ideas that create the Western vitality and evolution of the global economy.

Start-ups of new businesses and trying new things are essential to growth.

This is not just a concern for the youth.  The drop in young start-ups is is part of a broader drop in private business ownership over the past 25 years.

One study in the U.S. shows that the start-up rate  (start-ups as a percentage of all firms) fell almost in half between 1978 and 2011.

In the past decade there has especially been a slowing of start-ups in the vital areas of  technology.

The decline in start ups has many causes but the bottom line is a falling tolerance  for risk.  In an annual survey at Babson College a survey of 25-to-34-year-old Americans more than 41% saw an opportunity to start a business said fear of failure would stop them.  The percentage in 2001 was only 23.9% in 2001.

The fear of failure is the measure we should be most concerned about.

Without starts ups, the economy suffers stagnation from business consolidation.  This creates a stiffened old boys network of the super rich who resist  growth in the economy.

The costs of operating many types of small businesses have come down in the past decade, with the greater use of technologies that reduce labor costs. But young entrepreneurs face formidable financial hurdles.

You can help solve this problem and profit in the process using the 7-11 rules of business and investing.   The 7-11 rules apply to the process of investing and starting a business.  After all. your business is simply an investment that is multiplied by your own personal experience and energy.

Seven Facts to Know

#1: Markets are ruled by supply and demand and in the long term are predictable.
#2: Markets in short term are ruled by emotion and cannot be predicted.
#3: Periods of high performance are followed by periods of low performance and vice versa.
#4: Cheap (good value) investments outperform expensive (poor value) investments.
#5: Investments in established up trends offer greater immediate opportunity.
#6: Investments with high and rising earnings outperform investments with low and falling earnings.
#7: Good value, high quality stocks with rising earnings that have gained attention from the market are the most likely to appreciate.

Eleven Steps to Take

#1: Know that we know less than we think we do and that’s OK.
#2: Listen to those who disagree.  Expand horizons.
#3: Be wary of the thundering herd.  Truth is not created by repetition of an error.
#4: Avoid what is traditionally safe. Fashion reduces value. If  you opt for certainty, you could die anonymously.
#5: Don’t care too much about daily volatility.
#6: Don’t care too little about strategy that suits your own abilities, wants, needs and desires.
#7: Don’t count on extraordinary returns.
#8: Do not underexpose (don’t make too many short term decisions and not enough long term decisions) yourself for the long term.
#9: Invest in what you know.
#10: Look for contrasts and trends that create value.
#11: Accept that risk is your partner, embrace it, adapt and bet on growth.

Let’s Hook Up the Young & the Old.

Here are two steps to take.  If you are an investor, find a young entrepreneur and invest in him or her.  If you are creating your own micro business, find a young person and involve them in the business.  If you are young and want to get started, look for someone with a few miles under their belt to assist.

Fearing risk in times of accelerating change is a mistake.  Statistics show that increasing numbers are making this error.  The thundering herd’s shift away from risk, creates value for you, me and others who are willing to “Go Try Things”.

Gary

Turn Your Passion to Profit So You Never Run Out of Money

Earn everlasting wealth and fulfillment as you reduce stress.

First earn with online self publishing.   The three stories below show how Amazon.com and self publishing has enriched the lives of three others.

Online self publishing is creating a wealthy writer’s middle class.   Read the three stories of self publishing success below to learn a secret that new self publishers can use to make life rich.

In the past, a few writers made fortunes. The rest starved.  No more!  The old way of writing and publishing was great… if you like the lottery.   Not so good if you wanted an income for sure.

There are growing numbers of great stories about beginning writers using Kindle to sell their publications.  Here are three stories of how new self publishers have used Amazon.com to make their lives better as they earned more.

Let’s start with Nickolette Goff who is retired and loves, organic gardening,  healthy cooking and visiting Ecuador.   She had never published a book and after our self publishing course she wrote and promoted her first book… a Quinoa recipe cookbook with 13 recipes she garnered from her Ecuador trips.   She had 10,000 downloads of the book in five days and obtained dozens of good reviews!

You can get 13 more great quinoa recipes in Nicki Goff’s book at the links below.

quinoa-book

You can order Nicki’s first book at Amazon.com.

She wrote:  Hi, Gary,  Book sales are actually going well, and I’m having a lot of fun with this. I’m so grateful to you and Merri  for pushing me to get some action going!

The free promos really get things going, and seem to reignite sales.

Two more in the works – both on gardening topics.  Best wishes for 2013 to you and Merri.   Love, Nicki

Nicki’s husband recently wrote:  Nicki, her sister and two nieces are visiting Ecuador for 3 weeks in January –  Her Kindle books have paid for her trip so she loves that.

Nicki’s first book sells for .99 cents and is ranked #266,764 of paid sales in the Kindle Store.    Even being ranked in the 200,000 class, Nicki has earned enough to travel to Ecuador.

Take Bob Gandt as another example.

Bob Gandt

Bob Gandt has had great writing success and has been published by numerous major publishers.  Bob’s niche is flying, war and writing.  He published his first story at age sixteen – the same year he first soloed an airplane.  Since then he has logged something over 25,000 hours, written fourteen books and published countless articles. Hearing the stories of others like Bob help me (as well as you) better understand how many different ways there are to Write to Sell.

At age 20 he was at the time the youngest aviator in the U.S. Navy. In 1965 he began his 26 year career as a pilot for Pan American World Airways.   His 1995 book, Skygods, (Wm. Morrow & Co.), recounts the meteoric descent and crash of the once-great Pan Am. His 1997 book “Bogeys and Bandits” (Viking Penguin) told of a training squadron at the same base where he had trained years before.

This book led to a CBS series Pensacola: Wings Of Gold.   Bob was the writer and technical consultant for these twenty-two-episodes, which starred James Brolin as the commander of a Marine F/A-18 training squadron. Bob’s books were previously published by the big publishing houses, but now Bob’s focus is on self publishing.  As an author whose numerous books have been published for and sold through book stores, he sees the bookstore path filled with dinosaurs.

Bob started with print but took a special step that every writer should know.  This step has helped him add Ebooks to his stable of income producing systems.  Print and Ebooks are all part of the publishing process… but Ebooks make self publishing easier than ever before. Bob’s passion is flying and the military.  His books reflect this.

Learning and sharing your passion with like minded souls is just fun.  There is no other way to say it.  This is how life should be lived and self publishing lets you live it this way.

Yet despite an offer from a major publisher, Bob self published  his latest book at Amazon.com.  We helped introduce this book last April and it has reached #1o on the Military Thrillers best sellers list several times since! See Bob’s website here.

Another great story is about Hugh Howey, a writer that every self publisher should meet and hear.   Hugh had had just a little success with publishers, a book with modest success.

Hugh Howey

Hugh whipping me badly in a game of chess.

Hugh self published his book Wool.  Hugh was a bookstore clerk.  In his spare time he wrote science fiction and began self-publishing his work on Amazon.com in 2011.  Soon he was earning him over $100,000 a month on Amazon.  His books made the New York Times best seller list.  See Hugh Howey’s Amazon.com page here.

The formula that each of these writers has used is based around building a following for their books.  They wrote more than one book.  They sell their first book at a low price (free to .99 cents).  This compares to the typical $9.99 to $12.99 for books written by top branded authors on Kindle.

The low price starts building a readership.  In Hugh Howey’s case, he offered his first book free.  After the book became a best seller at Amazon.com, his other book sales, foreign rights, six figure print deal and film rights flowed naturally.

Nicki Goff and Bob Gandt are using this formula as well…  a  low priced first book attracts readers and builds a following for more…. higher priced, followup books.

This is one secret contained in our Self Publishing Course “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher”.  

Online self publishing allows you to lower price…  increase volume and cut out a publisher, distributor and book store who normally absorb up to 88% of the income created by a book.

You can start self publishing with no printing costs, no shelf space, no inventory, no postal delivery.  Most of the publishing expenses are eliminated.

The writer keeps 70%.

Amazon keeps 30%.

A typical writer earning 12% of the wholesale book sales makes about $.60 per $9.99 book sale.  A Kindle writer makes $2.10 on a $3 sale.

Costs are reduced as well.  Nicki Goff, Bob Gandt and Hugh Howey all write at home with no office or staff overheads.  This is how most self publishers start so all the income generated is profit.

This is a new exciting era for writers.

Smart self publishers can begin earning quickly with no obstacles between their publication and the reading public.   New technology provides self publishers with the following benefits:

* Printing, shipping and disposal (of unsold books) costs eliminated.

* Shelf space unlimited and almost free with no capital costs.

* Increased sales volume. Kindle owners buy more books than print readers and will spend weekly to get new chapters rather than entire books.

Get a great head start on earning income through the the evolving online self publishing process that we reveal in our course.

Technology favors self publishers today. Portable computers, the internet, wireless access, on demand printing smart phones and electronic readers all create enormous new, quick earning potential for self publishers.

If you take advantage of this offer there is a new added benefit.   You receive the basic “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher 101”,  “Self Publishing 202… How to Publish on Kindle” and our newest course “Self Publishing 303 – Tapping into the Amazon Evolution”.

The goal of “Self Publishing 303” is to help writers take advantage of a new trends at Amazon.com.   During the initial stages these new features offer the greatest potential.

Amazon.com publishing is evolving.  I have been studying, testing and publishing at Amazon.com and applying new technology offered by Amazon.com.  The  303 sessions share what I learned.

“Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher”  teaches our proprietary step-by-step plan for getting your publishing business going… full or part-time… right away.

You learn:

* How you can start earning quickly  with a very small amount of money even if you do not write full time.

* 11 steps to creating the perfect product, including how to review ideas, test focus, and aim at markets.

* How to gain 1,000% returns on some of your publications.

* How to choose a format—book, newsletter, list, audio or video—that suits you and your audience.

* Frequently committed marketing mistakes and how to avoid them (plus, you’ll get samples of winning marketing pieces to study).

My wife, Merri, and I became multi-millionaires in our own self-publishing business over 40+ years.  Today, we have more cars than we can drive, five homes and numerous cabins in North Carolina and Ecuador.  We have a beautiful lake front home on 16 acres (with an orange grove to boot).  We have no mortgages, not a penny of debt, and plenty of money in the bank.  More importantly even though we are well past retirement age, we can remain active,  love what we do… and make contributions to society that feel are meaningful.

Gain practical publishing ideas and case studies.

For example, you’ll learn about a pilot who published a book on the best airport cafés (suddenly all his flying became tax-deductible!)… how one couple who loved an island wrote a guide on the place and made enough money to buy a home on the beach there… and how another couple made millions with a simple legal idea.

What’s Your Passion: Travel and Tourism?

A client of ours amassed a fortune by starting travel guides for cities. He started with Sarasota, Florida, publishing a simple booklet with attractions, restaurants, etc. and plenty of advertising. Then he moved onto Naples, and on and on,until the whole state of Florida was done.

He didn’t have to put much work into the booklets as he could carry over plenty of generic information from booklet to booklet. But there were plenty of advertisers and plenty of people who wanted to obtain these booklets.

You learn:

* How to set up a computerized fulfillment center even if you’re computer illiterate.

* How to turn advertising dollars into a fortune by creating winning ads, direct mail pieces, and getting thousands of dollars in free publicity.

* How to use your computer and the internet to save hundreds of thousands of dollars in printing and postage.

* How to control inventory, check ad results, and keep overhead down.

* 11 financial hazards to avoid and tricks to stay profitable without a daily accountant.

* My secret pricing strategies that will help you sell more units of your product.

* How to define and target your internet market, and start getting visits

* How to develop your website

* The top 10 internet tips to use and the top 10 traps to avoid

“In Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher” Merri and I give away every publishing secret we know to write to sell for a solid income.

Why we’ll add the Self Published Kindle addition free.

Our self publishing course has been a mainstay for almost three decades but is updated regularly.  The course is based on the trial and error experiences Merri and I have had for the past 47 years… the very experiences that have made us self-fulfilled multimillionaires.  We are continually adapting our business as the industry evolves.  Our course helps readers evolve with us.

There is more because Merri’s and my story goes beyond self publishing.  We have also always earned with travel.

The second way to get ahead is by getting ahead.  Really.

bell shaped curve

The bell shaped curve affects all trends.  The 15.75% of businesses and investors that really get ahead are the early adopters.  They gain the largest rewards.

You can get ahead because a new trend is on its way.   This is an era of rapid disruptive change that hits even the giants.  In fact the bigger they are… the more vulnerable they become.  Amazon.com for example has turned huge industries upside down… and knocked booksellers, publishers and many retail businesses to their knees, but is Amazon.com the giant that will stumble next?

Our online course “Event – Full Business, How to Profit From an Events Business” teaches how to earn by conducting seminars and tours.

Self publishing at Amazon.com is evolving.   The idea of simply publishing and just waiting for royalties to roll in, is well along the bell shaped curve.  Amazon will be with us for some time…  but new technologies that can disrupt Amazon.com are already on their way.

What’s Next? – Huge Profits For the Early Adapter

Amazon.com will change.  The firm has incredible income but small profit.   Amazon.com is the 1,000 pound  gorilla when it comes to selling books.  For how long?  Just when everyone thinks they have the system figured out… a new disruption comes along.   Ask the guys at Borders or Barnes & Noble!   Wait… that’s right. I forgot.  Borders is gone.  Barnes & Noble’s retails sales have been decreasing for years.

Be a Micro Amazon.com.  A new trend is rising… small companies with Amazon.com like capabilities.   Early adopters have a chance to get ahead of this trend by mastering the 7Ps.

Our two online courses, “Self Fulfilled – How to Self Publish” and “Event – Full Business – How to Profit From an Events Business”, both teach how to use the 7Ps.  The two courses work together in a synergistic way so you can create a micro publishing seminar business as Merri and I have.

The 7 Ps are “For Certain” principles in this uncertain world.

The 7Ps are  Passion – Problem – Person – Product – Prospecting Path – Promise – Presentation and go beyond change.

Whatever disruption new technology brings, the 7Ps create opportunity because they identify, reach, engage, focus and solidify customers at a profit.

The Ps are really important to any writer, publisher or micro business because they transcend all forms of technology.  They are a constant in an ever changing world.

The 7Ps reflect an immutable logic that worked in paper based publishing before computers.  They worked with computerized Cheshire labels.  The 7Ps worked  with jet printing on envelopes and personalized emails.  They work for websites and blogs.  Our Writer’s Camp and Online Self Fulfilled delegates and Event Full subscribers are using the 7Ps successfully right now at Amazon.com and in numerous micro businesses.

Learn how to earn extra income by combining the 7Ps in an events business that is supported by self publishing and writing to sell.

gary scott events

Merri and I speaking to over 400 delegates in Quito, Ecuador

gary scott events

Merri and I speaking to a dozen delegates at our farm office in North Carolina.

Merri and I have been using the 7Ps for over 45 years.   Since May 1968 we have been paid to travel and live exactly where we have wanted to be… because we have known how to write to sell and monetize the publishing success with events, seminars, courses and tours.

The combination of self publishing working hand in hand with an events business has allowed us to visit and to live anywhere in the world we have desired.   Many of our courses delegates are using the 7Ps to enjoy great profits and lifestyle as well.

One reader sent me this note:

“Gary,  I participated in a Home Party last week and sold $253 worth of Ecuador goods that I brought back on my trip there last November.  That makes a total of approx. $450 in random sales so far which comes real close to paying for my airline ticket.  I still have a nice inventory, so will work on selling the rest.” 

This reader is using an events based business to generate income that pays for Ecuador travel.

Our online course “Event – Full Business” shows how to start small and gradually build a larger events business (if that is your desire) as we have done.

There are many fringe benefits to an events business. For example almost all of our global travel has been tax deductible for all these years.

The pay has certainly not been bad either.  One event earned  $142,260 in three days.  In another instance we earned over $135,000 in two days.  Once our earnings exceeded $200,000 in just three days.  More often we bring in $10,000 for a weekend’s work.

Yet the income has been a small part of this adventure.  The expanded horizons… the people we have met… the adventures we have shared… the tens of thousands of delegates we have enjoyed and hopefully helped…. the poor we have served… the freedom we have felt… to be able to go where we desire and come home, when we desire, with more than when we left.

Event Full Business- How to Have a Seminar and Tour Business.

We have conducted seminars or events or spoken at them in… (alphabetical order)  Australia, Austria, Bahamas, Belgium, Belize, Canada, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, England, Ecuador, Finland, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary (before the Iron Curtain came down), Indonesia, Isle of Man, Jamaica, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Nevis, Panama, Philippines, Puerto Rico, Scotland, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand and at one time or another most of the United States and even more.

There is a possibility that  Merri and I know more about conducting events than 99.9% of the people in the world.

We share what we know about events in our emailed correspondence course:  “Event – Full Business”.

Self publishing and events go hand in hand.  Writing to sell can build an events business and events can sell self published books, reports and courses.

Here are the initial lessons you receive.

#1: How to earn millions from seminars, courses and tours. See how we have earned as much as $200,000 for three days’ work. (Once $135,000 in two days.)

#2: How to build a seminar business. See the one day Washington-Atlanta-San Francisco system that helped our courses evolve and how to use this approach to help your teaching grow.

#3: When and when not to use other speakers. Seminars for speakers… a way to get it all out as your bank accounts gets it all in.

#4: How to use other speakers. Gain the key to the room and the people within. Why the golden pen is mightier than a glib tongue, the sword and the overloaded brain.

#5: Dealing with hotels/locations. Why the marketing does not talk to catering which will not communicate with accounting and the mess this could mean for you. How to choose… arrange and survive the hotel. Forget the $11,314 coffee bill… for swill.

#6: Scheduling seminars. Magic dates and times for marketing… how far in advance to market and seminar death dates to avoid.

#7: Creating a back end business. How Merri made $12,936 dollars at a seminar in 37 minutes by just standing still.

#8: Three types of courses… delegate driven… speaker driven… third party driven.

#9: The importance of strategic partnerships for added wealth.

#10: How to market seminars, courses & tours.

#11: How to build a List.

#12: Alternative seminar and course location options.

#13: The benefits of both big seminars and small courses.

#14: How to survive the dreaded problems: What to do when enrollments are low. Handling the heckler, the takeover and the cell phone. When the hotel fails. Surviving speaker no shows and all of those types of things!

#15: How to enhance your other businesses with seminars.

Event – Full Business – How to have a seminar and tour business sells for $349, but in this special offer you receive both fully guaranteed online courses “Event – Full Business” and “Self Fulfilled” for only $299 and save $349.

Self Fulfilled-How to be A Self Publisher.  There are growing numbers of great stories about beginning writers using Kindle to sell their publications.  You saw three above.

The course includes 11 steps to creating the perfect product, including how to review ideas, test focus, and aim at markets.

* How you can start with a very small amount of money and eventually work only four hours a day (if you are operating full-time).

* How to gain 1,000% returns on some of your publications.

* How to choose a format—book, newsletter, list, audio or video—that suits you and your audience.

* Frequently committed marketing mistakes and how to avoid them (plus, you’ll get samples of winning marketing pieces to study).

* How to set up a computerized fulfillment center even if you’re computer illiterate.

* How to turn advertising dollars into a fortune by creating winning ads, direct mail pieces, and getting thousands of dollars in free publicity.

* How to use your computer and the internet to save hundreds of thousands of dollars in printing and postage.

* How to control inventory, check ad results, and keep overhead down.

* 11 financial hazards to avoid and tricks to stay profitable without a daily accountant.

* My secret pricing strategies that will help you sell more units of your product.

* Plus much, much more that I don’t have space for here!

* How to use the internet to publish

* How to define and target your internet market, and start getting visits

* How to develop your website

* The top 10 internet tips to use and the top 10 traps to avoid

To help you start, I have created a special offer… our course on how to be a self publisher, our course on how to use the internet and a website in your business  and six bonuses for you.

Bonus #1: Get the 50 minute Video Workshop worth $99 “How to Start Your Own Internet Business” presented by our webmaster David Cross,

Bonus #2: Get FREE, the $299 online course “The Tangled Webs We Weave – How to Have an Internet Business”.  To read more  about this course click here.

Bonus #3: Our Super Thinking Workshop in an MP3 file so you can listen on your computer, burn a disk or listen on you Ipod or in your car. This workshop is a $199 value.

Bonus #4: A special report only available to those who enroll in “Self Fulfilled” entitled  “Three Secrets for Creating Publishing Ideas”.

Bonus #5:  We have created a special program so you can enjoy both our guaranteed online courses “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher” and “Event Full Business – How to Have a Seminar and Tour Business”.  “Event Full Business – How to Have a Seminar and Tour Business” has been offered regularly at $349.

When you order “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher” at the regular price of $499 you receive all five bonuses at no extra cost. You save $946 total.

Self Fulfilled Special $499

GUARANTEED. We’ll Accept All the Risk!

We completely guarantee the program.

Order Self Publishing: Your Complete Business Plan for becoming a self publisher and take a full 30 days to put it through its paces.  That way you can follow my simple process and start seeing the results for yourself.

If you’re not completely convinced that this information can help you develop income through writing to sell—all you have to do is let us know and  you’ll receive a complete refund of every penny of your investment.

Fair enough?

Our publishing business has brought us more wealth, satisfaction, fun and friendship than we ever imagined possible.  We want to share our knowledge and secrets with anyone who has a desire to experience this way of life.

Whether you are an engineer, doctor, housewife, business owner, or retiree… self-publishing offers a way to create income by turning your passion into profit.

Don’t miss this special opportunity.  Order Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher today if you want to cash in on the satisfying, profitable and exciting lifestyle that publishing can bring despite and in fact because of trouble in the world.

Self Fulfilled Special $499

 

(1)  A Wall Street Journal article “Endangered Species: Young U.S. Entrepreneurs

Micro Business Evolution


Every micro business has risk.

About 35 years ago I wrote my first book “Passport to International Profit” and in that book wrote the statement, “The sun is always shining somewhere”.  I was wrong and would like to restate that phrase… “The sun is always shining everywhere!”

That realization crystalized when the note below, from our Ecuador rose supplier, arrived: Gary,  just sharing not so good news.  The extension for the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act was not renewed as we had expected, meaning there is a good chance that it is gone.

When the temporary extension ended last Sunday, thousands of products from Ecuador became taxable when they enter the USA… including Ecuador flowers.

We still hope that an extension would be granted until June, which had given us some time to plan a strategy, but this did not happen.  Thousands of Ecuadorians depended on this agreement, but the official government position from Ecuador is “that we won’t ask for it to be extended, the government doesn’t not ask or beg as they put it, so we have no official from our government lobbying to get this benefit.”

Here are some of the taxes that will be charged on some agricultural products.ecaudor-tax

We have not added the cost of this tax to Ecuador roses offered at this site.  Order Ecuador roses now and save this tax. 

Ecuador-valentine's-roses

See how to get a two year Ecuador Living subscription and 50 Ecuador roses free. See details here.

This US import tax will change Ecuador business and highlights the importance of  gaining opportunity by being able to spot and adapt to change.

Warren Buffet gives us clues when he writes about investing and says:

  1. Do what you like
  2. Money isn’t everything
  3. Work only with people you like
  4. Buy businesses, not stocks
  5. Invest only in what you understand
  6. Don’t over diversify
  7. Keep looking for new opportunities
  8. Buy businesses you plan to keep for life
  9. Look for businesses that are available at a good price

This seventh tip to always keep looking for new opportunities is really important…. especially in this rapidly changing world.

ecuador-ocean-view

Due to technology Merri and I can operate our micro business from our apartment on this beach of Ecuador’s Pacific.  See the Ecuador house for sale where this photo was taken on the same beach as our apartment.

north-carolina-leaf-change

We can operate our micro business from the remote woods of our North Carolina farm.

Gary-Scott

We can operate our business from our Florida orange grove.  This is one of my favorite workplaces… at sunset… our lanai… overlooking the lake,  the oaks and the grove.

There is no perfect investment. There is no perfect place, but… there is opportunity everywhere and the key to spotting opportunity if for every person needs to incorporate their personal realities with the marketplace.

Making money in business is easier than any other way and modern technology, low cost computing, inexpensive transportation and cheap, reliable communication makes it simpler to have your own business today.

Small, fast and flexible are now beautiful in business! We’ll rarely understand a business better than one we own ourselves.

This fact is what we defined the concept of living a lifestyle with never ending wealth as PIEC wealth.

PIEC is an acronym for “Personal Income Earning Corridor”.  This concept of financial prudence differs greatly from traditional approaches of accumulating wealth.

Traditionally people get jobs to create income. They work to live and support their lifestyle while attempting to spend less than they earn. Maybe the savings will bring, some time in the future, a lifestyle of doing something enjoyable without work.

PIEC investors reverse the priorities. Instead of working for money to save and invest, they focus their prime effort on doing something they enjoy right now. Then they learn how to enjoy the effort in some profitable way. They learn to create “Avenues of Abundance” that combine lifestyle with the necessary task of accumulating wealth.

For example, if a PIEC investor loves golf; instead of working six days a week, 50 weeks a year just to golf on Sundays and during short vacations, instead he’ll create a business in some aspect of the golfing trade.

In another example, a client of mine, who loved animals became a vet. But he learned that the vet’s lifestyle was not one he enjoyed. He wanted to travel and move around, which is difficult for a professional who needs to stay at his office and build a practice. So he built a business that prepares special animal foods for race horses. Now he travels globally visiting horse breeders and makes much more money as well.

PIEC investors combine money with time, energy and desires. They generate income doing something desired. Desire and fulfillment become at least as, if not more, important as the money.

gary-scott-photo

We can operate our micro business from our home or our hotel courtyard in the Ecuadorian Andes.

Do what you love.

The reason PIEC investing works well is that when we love to do something, we do it better, for longer and with greater enthusiasm.

Let your passions lead you to opportunity wherever you are.

These are wealth building attributes that cannot fail. Yet PIEC investing does not mean we should suddenly abandon our jobs and try becoming golf pros, when we have never been able to break 100. Smart PIECS often require a gradual approach.

For example, as a writer and lecturer, I was never fully satisfied sitting behind a desk or standing on a podium all day long, even though I was making over a million bucks a year. I’m the physical, outdoors type and yearned for exercise and the wilds of the deep woods. “What good’s the money if this isn’t satisfying?” I often asked myself.

Rather than quit writing and teaching, I looked for ways to combine these professions with the outdoor life. Through research I learned that many city folk like myself yearn to be in the primitive outdoors. So we bought an isolated farm high in the Blue Ridge Mountains and an Andean plantation high in Ecuador where we developed seminar centers with charming but simple dwellings, set in rustic surroundings, with clean water and pure air. Now I can teach in a primitive setting and after I finish the writing or talking, I run up into the woods with an axe and clear another cabin site or something physical like that. I’ve combined my writing with physical work and have blended the life I want, with my readers’ needs in a way that makes great financial sense. The cabins are projected to bring more profits than most stocks or bonds could ever return.

The process took six years to shift and we are far from finished. But while I’m doing what I love, who cares? This is one of the great benefits of PIEC investing. We can slow down and enjoy the work instead of always rushing ahead, looking for something more.

Those who work nine to five can start PIEC businesses part time if they are too uneasy to quit their jobs. Others, who like myself, already have a business can slowly shift their product or service in a sensible way and let it evolve toward their PIEC.

internet-business

Wherever I have a computer and the internet, I can be in business. You can too!

Where to Start

There is a seven step process we can all use whether we have our own careers, a business or even if we are retired (PIEC investing is especially good for retirees who have found the supposed good life flat or financially short).

The first step is to get a clear idea or vision of our dream. This is sometimes harder to achieve than it seems. We are so deluged with false ideals from Washington, Wall Street, Madison Avenue, etc. that we have to stop and really take stock.

There is a very practical economic reason to look inwards for wealth. Warren Buffet recommends that we only invest in what we understand. What can we understand better than ourselves?

This inner search will lead us to an ideal that begins the second step which is gaining enthusiasm. How can we be anything but enthusiastic about finally fulfilling our deepest dreams? The enthusiasm leads to the third step; gaining an education.

We need to find out everything we can about our idea. (This is where an Ecuador Living subscription really pays off. There are few better sources of contacts and information in Ecuador). To succeed we must become real experts in the product or service we offer.

Fourth, this educational process allows us to develop an intelligent, focused business plan we can act upon and the action is the fifth step which brings us the experience. Experience gives us the sixth step, a financial loss or profit. Remember we always profit in increased knowledge which creates the seventh step, more ideas. Then the entire cycle starts all over again: Idea, Enthusiasm, Education, Action, Experience, Financial Profit and New Ideas.

This is a way to follow Warren Buffet’s advice to keep looking for new opportunities. Business is rarely static. It is an ever evolving process instead.

This seven step cycle may take days, weeks, months or years. The speed you set can be related to your income needs, but whatever pace you set, the moment you begin you’ll start moving into an avenue of affluence where you love your work so though money isn’t your main goal it comes more easily.

Building Wealth

Building wealth becomes a fulfilling, enjoyable process of service. Great financial rewards are an extra benefit rather than ultimate goals. Worries about money become less dominant and we gain an inherent power because we want to work harder and longer. We don’t need to search (and spend) so much for fulfilment and are more likely to excel financially.

Knowing ourselves also helps begin a business with a most powerful business tool I call the Golden Rule of Simplicity. This rule says there are millions of people just like us. When we truly see ourselves we look into a mirror that reflects an entire market who feel and desire just as we do. This is a simple rule yet gives us a finely tuned market research system which shows us how to get create our product, get in touch with our market, deliver the product or service, etc.

Self-knowledge is also essential for comfort, and comfort is a vital part of everlasting wealth. When investors are not comfortable, no profit is enough. Uncomfortable investors have a never-ending thirst for more that cannot be quenched. This indefatigable desire gums up the money making process. Amounts don’t matter. Even investors with incredible assets suffer this never-ending lust. A well documented example is Bunker Hunt’s huge losses when he speculated in silver. He had hundreds of millions yet speculated it all to make even more. When is hundreds of millions not enough?

Three Layers of Wealth

PIEC business does not mean you should put all your money in just your own business (though at times you may). Diversification is always good. PIEC diversification again departs from the financial planning norm.

PIEC portfolios come in three layers, first the business, then a layer of very safe investments over a third, much smaller layer of speculative deals.

The majority of PIEC diversification should be in stodgy, liquid investments such as utilities, CDs and bonds. These investments might pay little in the short term, but are safe and they are highly liquid at a known price. The low return on these investments is acceptable because they support your PIEC business which makes profits like few other investments can. These very safe investments act as reserves if your business hits a sticky patch and can provide ready finance if sudden business opportunities arise. They also don’t take up much time in research, accounting, watching the market, etc. so you can devote your energy doing what you love (your business) instead.

However, if you genuinely love researching and tracking the market and have the mentality, capital and experience for it, just being an investor can be a wonderful PIEC business in itself.

The third layer of diversification can be speculative because modern portfolio theory suggests that safe investments are enhanced and made safer by adding a small amount of higher risk deals. This also allows us to fulfill any casino mentality we might have left if having our own business is not enough.

PIEC investing makes it easier to create and keep wealth. It enhances our lifestyles now, because it lets us make money being who we really are. It makes life more fulfilling and fun.

Whether you are employed or have your own business, our website can help you gain knowledge and contacts to be a better entrepreneur. In the process consider becoming a PIEC investor so you can get the most, in money and fun, out of your own business.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety in 2020

The most important investment you can make in 2020, is in yourself. 

Invest in more time.  Invest in less stress. Invest in greater security.That’s why four years ago we created the Purposeful Investing Course (PI) because when it comes to finances, there are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

The core model portfolio we teach in the PI Course rarely changes, but is highly diversified in thousands of shares around the world… so there is higher long term profits, less stress and greater safety.

The portfolio consists of 19 country ETFs.  During the four years since we created the Purposeful Investing Course and set up a $40,000 real time portfolio at Motif Brokers, we have held the same 19 shares and have only traded three times.

The portfolio started with $40,000 and has risen to $53,591 ($49,015 in shares and the balance in accumulated cash).

The portfolio did really well from 2015 to 2018, better than the DJI Index.  Then as the US dollar grew in strength it fell behind.

The chart below shows the actual results of thos portfolio compared with the S&P 500.

motif

 

This good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around investing models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

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Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Canada, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Spain, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of theseall good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in all the shares of the MSCI Index in each good value market reduces long term risk.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last four years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2020 I celebrate my 54th anniversary in the investing business and 52nd year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal Investing Course.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

An International Investing Risk


One international investing risk is inflation.

lakeside-inn

Lakeside Inn

Because problems create opportunity… this creates an international investment opportunity.

Our International Investing and Business Seminar started at the Lakeside Inn in Mt. Dora Florida and we are looking at seven international investing risks and how to position our savings and investments to gain from and protect against the changes these seven events will bring.

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Our meeting is in the Donnelly room above the…

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La Cremerie cafe so during delegates can… sit on…

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porch or inside to view the…

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interesting and somewhat amusing art.

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One of our seminars in the Donnelly room.

This seminar is sold out and with a good reason… inflation.

One of the risks we are reviewing is inflation and how it is heating up.

Excerpts from a February 4th USA Today article “Prices starting to creep higher” by Paul Davidson” tells the tale: The near-zero inflation era may be ending. Prices are rising slightly, and economists expect a steady climb as the recovery gains steam.

In recent earnings reports, some retailers and manufacturers have said they’re boosting prices this year on clothing, groceries and other items after holding firm in 2010.

The uptick is largely driven by surging food, energy, cotton and other global commodity prices as economic growth heats up significantly in China and emerging markets.

U.S. firms largely absorbed higher costs last year in the belief that price increases would drive away penny-pinching consumers in a weak recovery. But they can withstand shrunken profit margins only so long.

“You run out of margin and eventually close”, says investment strategist Bruce McCain of Key Private Bank.

The consumer price index in December rose 1.5% from a year ago, the most since May. Yet, wholesale prices for finished goods jumped 4%, indicating firms were squeezed.

Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics expects 2% inflation this year, still well below pre-recession rates of 3% to 4%. But higher food and gasoline prices could trim consumer spending by two-tenths of a percentage point, he says. Among those raising prices:

•VF Corp., maker of Wrangler and Lee jeans, plans to raise prices as denim costs have been pushed up by soaring cotton prices.

•Grocer Supervalu is raising prices from 3% for items such as cereal to as much as 14% for cooking oil.

•UPS, citing a 26% jump in 2010 fuel costs, plans to raise its fuel surcharge Monday to 6% from 5.5% for ground packages and to 10% from 9% for air service.

•Tire costs for retailer Hogan Tire in Northern Virginia jumped 18% each of the past three years due partly to rising rubber costs.

Many construction firms could close because they can’t pass on higher copper, steel and fuel costs in a dismal market, says trade group Associated General Contractors of America.

Rising prices will push up short term interest rates and bond yields.

One of the slides from our seminars outlines this risk.

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A solution… invest in emerging equities.  More slides from the seminar show why.

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international-investment-slides tahs:

At this international investing seminar we’ll be seeing how events in the Middle East… and in Europe as the euro breaks up or survives… plus a super heated Dow will lead to Risk Off investing that creates exceptional emerging market opportunity.

Another solution we’ll review are shares in the company Silver Wheaton… traded in New York and Toronto.

lakeside-inn

Silver Wheaton is an alternative to holding silver.  Here is the share price chart since 2006.

The companies fact sheet says:

Established in 2004, Silver Wheaton has quickly positioned itself as the largest metals streaming company in the world. The company currently has 15 silver purchase agreements and two precious metals agreements where, in exchange for an upfront payment, it has the right to purchase all or a portion of the silver production, at a low fixed cost, from high-quality mines located in politically stable regions.

Forecast 2010 production, based upon the company’s current agreements, is 22.2 million ounces of silver and 20,000 ounces of gold, for total production of 23.5 million silver equivalent ounces. By 2013, annual production is anticipated to increase significantly to approximately 40 million silver equivalent ounces. No ongoing capital expenditures are required to generate this growth and Silver Wheaton does not hedge its silver production.

Silver Wheaton’s industry-leading growth profile is driven by a portfolio of world- class assets, including silver streams on Goldcorp’s Peñasquito mine in Mexico and Barrick’s Pascua-Lama project straddling the border of Chile and Argentina. The company’s unique business model creates significant shareholder value by providing considerable leverage to increases in the silver price while reducing the downside risks faced by traditional mining companies. Silver Wheaton has an experienced management team with a strong track record of success and is well positioned for further growth.

You can order the entire seminar in audio digital form delivered online… see all seven risks and international investing solutions here.

Gary