Tag Archive | "Philippines"

Galapagos Real Estate for Sale


This advertisement has been submitted by a reader for Galapagos real estate for sale… a wonderful Galapagos farming opportunity.

Galapagos-Transport

Villamil Beach Galapagos

I was really impressed by this ad because Galapagos is a pristine area where tourists and even residents are regulated but this farm is in a part of the Galapagos where even the tourists cannot go.

Here is what Mike Van Pelt wrote about the farm he has for sale.

“Galapagos”  What other word conjures up so many varied wild imaginations of fearless animals, peace and solitude, turquoise oceans with pristine island beaches, lava spouting volcanoes, and yes, Darwin?

This is a very rare opportunity to own your piece of Galapagos Paradise.

We are offering a 10 acre farm in the highlands of Isabela at a really rock bottom price.

Isabela is by far the largest of the islands in the Galapagos Archipelago, formed by the uniting of 5 volcanoes to create an island that equals a bit more than 50% of the land mass of all of the islands, 2850 square miles in total.  Its seahorse shape only adds to the charm of this enchanting island.  The population of 2,500 islanders encompasses a mix of Ecuadorians, Galapaginos, and Ex-Pats from the USA, UK, and various European countries. Its Southeastern coastal city of Puerto Villamil is a sleepy town that still has the quaint charm of all sand streets.  Puerto Villamil has begun to upgrade its appearance in the past 2 years.  There has been an addition of an embarcadero for the passenger boats.

Isabela-Docks-Galapagos

There is now sawn-lava side walks and a public square with shaded gazebo areas (which at this moment has free wifi).

Villamil plaza-Galapagos-

and an addition to the public hospital… where medical care is free.

Villamil Medical-Hospital-Galapagos Tags

Villamil medical clinic and hospital.

Villamil Plaza-Church-Galapagos

Villamil Plaza-Church.

I checked this out. Isabela Island is bigger than all the other Galapagos islands combined. It is about 75 miles long and 50 miles at its widest. The total land area is 1771 square miles—bigger than Rhode Island.  These mountains that form this island were probably separate at one time and then fused in to a single mass. The most recent eruption was Cerro Azul in 1999. So the island is still rising, and Wolf Volcano is the highest point in the islands—an elevation of 5,600 feet.

Here is a Galapagos map. You can see how large Isabela is compared to rest of the islands.

Galapagos-Map

Mike continues.

This finca (farm) is about a 15 minute drive from town toward Sierra Negra Volcano National Park, in an $8 per hour taxi.  It is situated at the corner of the Sierra Negra road and the Santo Tomas road.  Electricity is present on the property (The island’s electricity plant now powered by diesel generators, is scheduled to be replaced by a solar plant that powers the entire island by 2010).

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Electricity to the property. See the rich volcanic earth.

A beautiful ocean view can be seen from the property.  The Sierra Negra road is in the process of being paved, constituting the only paved road on the island.

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This is the beach on our island.

The island of Isabela is accessible by 4 daily flights to (and from) the island of Santa Cruz.  From Puerto Ayora board an island-hopper for a 2.5 hour boat ride to Isabela and its port city of Villamil where you will surely be greeted by one of the numerous lethargic sea lions who have claimed stake to a fisherman’s boat for the afternoon.  Although the boat ride may soon be alleviated, as a commercial airport has been started, but is awaiting additional governmental funding for its completion.  It is also possible to take a 6-passenger plane directly from Baltra airport to Isabela.

Villamil Port Area- Galapagos

This is the Villamil Port Area.

The Academy Bay and…

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Pointe Ayora are on Santa Cruz Island.

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Since you must go to Santa Cruz to get to Isabela you see these views on the journey.

This aerial was taken when we flew from Isabela directly to the airport on Baltra.

galapagos-Views

The activities available on Isabela are sure to please every palate with beach activities including snorkeling either from beach or from boat (as long as you don’t mind penguins, sea lions or turtles as your companions), swimming, scuba diving, and volleyball; boat/land trips around the Bay and the Tintoreras Islets off of the shore of Villamil from which much wildlife can be seen and photographed including the Galapagos Penguins, Blue Footed Boobies, Sea Lions too numerous to count, Eagle Rays, and Green Sea Turtles.

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Snorkeling with Sea Lions.

Colonies of sea lions continue on their daily activities seemingly unaware that we are in their presence.

Galapagos-Transport

Don’t forget to look up and see the ever-soaring Frigate Birds with their red throats.  I am told that this is a birding paradise.   This is not my strong area, but if you are a birder you will know.

Galapagos-Transport

Blue Footed Boobie.

For the land-lovers, and nature lovers, a hike to the Sierra Negra Volcano and Volcan Chico is an absolute must, either partially by horseback or totally on your own hoof.  Either way the views, especially on a clear day, are more than breathtaking.  Then there is the geology – multi-colored lava, Pele’s tears, lava tubes, sulfur vents, and the endless black flow that is absorbed into the sea.

Los-Tuneles-Galapagos

Los-Tuneles.

On a different day plan to take in one of the lava tube caves, you will not be disappointed.  For the strong at heart, multiple-day hiking/camping trips to various remote locations can be arranged for hiking Sierra Azul or wildlife viewing in areas not accessible by the 2 roads on the island.

Back in Puerto Villamil, the main town do not miss the Poza Salinas, or brackish ponds, which sport several Flamingos sifting the salt-water for food.

Villamil-Albermarle-Hotel-Galapagos

Villamil Albermarle Hotel.

Meals are really inexpensive.   In the restaurants the Plate of the Day lunch runs $2.50-$3 and dinner:  $3-$4.

Main Street-Restaurant-Galapagos-Transport

Main street restaurant.

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Local transportation.

Since the US dollar is the official currency there are no conversion costs or forex concerns.

If you are not staying at the farm, there are nice, new accommodations with A/C for as little as $15 a day… though you can spend
-up to $100/night for on-the-beach luxury.

Here…

Galapagos-Transport

Villamil beach shots and…

Galapagos-Police

the police station and…

Galapagos-Transport

Post office.

Walk  along the beach and the beach paths from town to the Rearing Center for the Giant Tortoises where several species of endangered Galapagos Tortoises are raised from incubation and released back into the wild at the age of 5.  Note:  They are always looking for volunteers, should you feel the desire to help an endangered species hands-on.

Galapagos-Transport

There are also several boardwalks for viewing other natural water flora and fauna of the coastal marshy areas.

Lagoon-Conche-Perle-Galapagos

Lagoon Conche Perle.

This finca is busting at the property lines with bananas in various varieties, papaya, guava, mature avocado (2 crops per year) and mango trees, various types of citrus, and passion fruit.

Papaya & Mango.

Papaya & Mango-Galapagos

Octoi & Banana.

Octoi & Banana-Galapagos Tags

Citrus.

Citrus-Galapagos Tags

Bananas.

Papaya & Mango-Galapagos

Farmhouse seen from the road.

FarmHouse-seen-from-Road Galapagos

Cruises leave from Puerto Ayora, ranging from Single Day-Cruises to luxury 9-Day Cruises.

Cruise Boats are NOT allowed access to Isabela.   This helps preserve the pristine qualities of the island.

This is a farm and land of…

Galapagos-shots

true beauty… sunrise to…

Galapagos

sunset.

I have Ecuador beach lots as well as this farm and would like to use the farm but never find the time to stay on the island long enough to get a Cedula (residency) card.  The Islands only allow 3 months per year visits with possible extensions of 3 each in one month periods so I will sell this for $109,000 or would consider a trade for a Cotacachi area property or other highland area or more Ecuador beach property.

For more details contact me, Mike Van Pelt at mike1athome@hotmail.com

This is a paid advertisement I am not involved so please direct your inquiries to Mike.

Gary

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

December 6-8 Blane Watson’s Beyond Logic & Shamanic Tour

December 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

December 11-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Join us in the mountains and at the sea.  Attend more than one seminar and tour and save even more plus get the three emailed courses free.

Attend any two Ecuador seminar or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799


International Investing Trick


Here is a global diversification trick that may do well in the likely global economic scenario ahead. Buy good value shares internationally as markets dive during the summer dip.

In a moment we’ll look at some Ecuador health ideas… first the investing trick.

Global equity markets have been in a bear market rally for six months but are now hitting the summer blues due to seasonality.

Share prices will probably drop now. Chances are there will be a strong global equity slump at least through October 2009.

This will create extra value in equity markets and provide good opportunity to pick up high value long term.

The bear market is likely to carry on until 2012-13, but good value shares acquired during dips are more likely to spike early and have extra potential after the bear ends.

Now through October 2009 could be a good time to invest in high value shares for long term appreciation.

But which shares… in which markets?

One way to approach this is to look for extra value created by inefficiencies in markets…to find markets where the values are best.

Statistically this is the best way to be absolutely sure of the best long term returns.

There are numerous investment managers who use very strict valuation criteria (usually based on dividend yields, cash flow, price earnings) to spot the best value markets.  They then try to apply similar criteria to select good value shares in the good value market.

The next goal is to decide how much should be weighted in major market and how much in emerging markets.

Here is a comparison of the Morgan Stanley Major Market versus Emerging Market indices.

The MSCI World Index is a market capitalization weighted index that measures the equity market performance of developed markets.  It includes 23 developed market country indices : Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The MSCI Emerging Market Index includes Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey.

MSCI Indices performances.  Total per annum return over:

Major                            Emerging
15 years    4.10%                   5.41%
10 years  -3.85%                   9.11%
5 years    -2.77%                  11.16%
3 years   -10.81%              -00.17%
1 year      -20.81%             -27.53%
3 mos.      14.30%               27.53%

Regardless of the time frame observed,  the emerging equities almost always seriously outperformed major markets… but as a class they also dropped further in the 2008 downturn.

Here is a year-on-year comparison for the past five years.

Major                   Emerging
2003  10.74%           29.63%
2004    6.46%           16.51%
2005   26.17%           54.41%

2006     7.40%          18.23%

2007     -1.66%         25.71%
2008   -50.30%      -37.64%
2009      5.39%         34.79%  3 months

This history suggests that emerging markets deserve a substantial ranking.

However before becoming too aggressive in over weighting emerging markets, we have to keep in mind two thoughts.

First economic thought. The last 15 years has been a catch-up era when the investing world caught on to the idea that emerging markets offered great opportunity.

Second economic thought. A great deal of emerging growth came from debt financed exports to the developed world. This leaves emerging economies holding huge amounts of debt for customers who may not be able to repay the debt nor continue to buy the same volume of goods as before.

The easiest way for investors to invest in good value during dips is via a value mutual fund.

You can select a value major market fund, a value emerging market fund or a value diversified fund.

The benefit of a value diversified fund is that the professional manager decides how much to weight in emerging and major markets.

For example I just sent a lesson to our multi currency subscribers that showed a US traded international diversified value fund that has risen 36.08% in the past quarter ending June 30, 2009.  This fund is 86% in major markets and 14% in emerging markets.

Learn how to read about this fund as a multi currency subscriber.

The most valuable asset we can have in tough economic times is good health. This is why we studied Ecuador health ideas at our June tour.

Cotacachi is considered sacred by the shamans… a place of wonderful mountains that ring the valley.  This is Mt. Cotacachi to the west.

ecuador-shaman-recap

Mt. Imbabura to the east.

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The valley is surrounded by mountains like these twin peaks…

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creating wonderful, mystic  sunrises.

ecuador-shaman-recap

The first afternoon of the tour we visited La Mirage Spa and the Shamana Estella.

ecuador-shaman-recap

She began a theme that the many shamans we visited confirmed.   She said that the three keys to better health, increased longevity, more energy and fulfillment are good nutrition, proper exercise and good sleep.

The purpose of the Ecuador shamanic tour is to learn ways to unlock this healthy  combination in a natural low cost way!

The second day we joined Clemencia, the Shamana of Zuleta and drove 15 minutes from our hotel Meson de las Flores to Otavalo market where we visited the local food market…

ecuador-shaman-recap

filled with fruits…

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vegetables…

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flowers and …

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herbs.

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Here is the shamana speaking to the group with Merri and Mauricio translating.

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We learned the importance of the herbs to make good teas that hydrate the body are cedron, chamomile and lemon verbena.

ecuador-shaman-recap

We learned how other herbs relax such as chamomile and valerian root. Plus we were told to boil lettuce in milk as a prebedtime drink for better sleep.

ecuador-shaman-recap

On the other hand, tea from cinnamon, paprika, cloves and ginger help reduce sluggishness in digestion and to speed the system when we need to be fired up.

ecuador-shaman-recap

You can read this entire report as an Ecuador Living subscriber.

Gary

We hope you’ll join us and enjoy Ecuador’s or North Carolina’s beauty soon.

ecuador-sun

Sunrise from Meson de las Flores.

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Or join us in Ecuador and learn more about living and retiring in Ecuador.

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two.

Power Distance Index Profits


Power can bring profits in many ways… the first via the Power Distance Index.

I recently wrote in Ecuador shamans and truth how Merri and I have been drawn more and more back to the USA.   We have enjoyed phenomenal success in Ecuador but we are pioneers… Our investments and business are early in and early out. Ecuador is now really well on its way and for us this is not so fun.

We’ll look at how the Power Distance Index makes Ecuador living better.  First more on PDI.

We’ll still enjoy time in Cotacachi and on the Pacific, but we are arranging for others to take over the day to day so we can  head off on a new adventure.

Part of our next horizon is to make our North Carolina farm much more self sustainable and to share what we learn in the process.

Thinking about this leads me to share some other thoughts on power and the Power Distance Index.

One powerful investing and business idea is to invest in countries with a low Power Distance Index (PDI).

Malcom Gladwell explains this in his newest book “Outliers” a book about what makes  success.

One part of the book looks at the importance of the Power Distance Index in each nation.  This is vital information because it explains how countries differ in their approach to dealing with risk and uncertainty.  The ability to handle risk and uncertainty  in changing times is vital.

Here is how the website www.kwintessential.co.uk describes PDI.

The Power Distance Index (PDI) is one of the five intercultural dimensions developed by Hofstede. In short this cultural dimension looks at how much a culture does or does not value hierarchical relationships and respect for authority.

Examples of cultures with high PDI scores include Arabic speaking countries, Russia, India and China. Those with low scores include Japan, Australia and Canada. See a world map of power distance index scores.

So how does this manifest in a culture or country?

In a high power distance cultures the following may be observed:

. Those in authority openly demonstrate their rank.
. Subordinates are not given important work and expect clear guidance from above.
. Subordinates are expected to take the blame for things going wrong.
. The relationship between boss and subordinate is rarely close/personal.
. Politics is prone to totalitarianism.
. Class divisions within society are accepted.

In a low power distance culture:

. Superiors treat subordinates with respect and do not pull rank.
. Subordinates are entrusted with important assignments.
. Blame is either shared or very often accepted by the superior due to it being their responsibility to manage.
. Managers may often socialize with subordinates.
. Liberal democracies are the norm.
. Societies lean more towards egalitarianism.

The Power Distance Index is a measure of the attitude toward hierarchy.  In short the PDI shows how much people overall, in a country, respect authority.

This index is really important in this rapid changing world because authority almost always lags behind reality.  Authority resists required change to adapt in altering conditions.  Countries with a high PDI suffer from change.

For example the US has a low PDI. Russia has a very high PDI.  Thus during the changing 1980s the Soviet Union disintegrated while the US rebounded and thrived.  PDI differences were not the only reasons for this but when a nation’s leadership cannot communicate with its people…  it cannot sense reality as times shift.

On the subject of the 1980s. Many readers are worried about the current economic downturn.  Current conditions are not as poor as during the twin recessions of the 1980s, when unemployment exceeded 10 percent.  This downturn is on track to be worse… but not yet.

Gladwell writes in “Outliers::  In low power index countries, power is something is something in which power holders are almost ashamed and will try to underplay.  In Austria (a low PDI country)  Prime Minister Bruno Kreiskt was known to sometimes take a streetcar to work.

Here are six countries with high PDIs:
Brazil
South Korea
Russia
Mexico
Philippines
Uruguay

Six Countries with low PDIs:
Austria
Denmark
United States
Ireland
Australia
New Zealand

A low PDI can help a country adapt faster and better to change, so look for investments in countries with low PDIs. 

This message is an excerpt from our latest multi currency lesson.  You can read what to do now as a multi currency subscriber. Learn how to subscribe here.

However countries with high PDIs are often better for living.

I was thinking about this one recent morning while visiting Quito.  This is one of the world’s beautiful cities so I rose to watch the dawn.  The day broke in glorious rose patina.

power-distance-index

Like the days ahead…  the view was obscured until the light began…

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to reveal Quito’s beauty.

Ecuador’s Power Distance Index in Ecuador is a bit high. This does not stop a great city from growing. I loked out and saw that there was plenty here.  Riches enough.  All the …

power-distance-index

creature comforts…

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glowing in the daybreak.  Every material thing a person could want…

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As the light spread, i dressed and rode up to the hotel restaurant.

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I’ll looked out at Quito again in the light of day.

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There is amazing wealth here. The hotel restaurant is opulent.

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With amazing views around the city.  yet the prices here are low in part because…

power-distance-index

poor government is created with the help of a high Power distance Index. This  keeps most of the people in Ecuador poor.  This means that we can help bring and spending our money here.   This who do, help Ecuador’s poor and are rewarded with good living at a low price.

This reinforces what I wrote in “Multi Currency Bank Safety

Live in one country
Bank in a second country
Invest in many countries
Earn in two or more countries
Use a company incorporated in a fifth country
Take a second residence

On the subject of banking abroad Denmark has the second lowest PDI in the world (Austria is number one) so it is not surprising that for the last 20 years my major bankers have been in Copenhagen and Vienna.  I like the autonomy that investment advisers have in low PDI countries.

This is in my estimation one reason why Jyske Bank (Denmark’s second largest bank) was not caught in the sub prime or Madoff scandals.

Bank’s in countries with a low PDI are more likely to use the wisdom of their entire organization to head off trouble at the pass.

Organizations have enormous wisdom.

The book, “The Wisdom of Crowds, Why the Many are Smarter than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies and Societies and Nations” by James Surowiecki tells how potent the wisdom of a group can be.

The book begins by telling how at the annual West of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition in the fall of 1906, a British scientist became interested in a weight judging competition. 800 people, smart, dumb, old, young in all types of professions guessed the weight of two dressed oxen. The correct answer was 1,197 pounds. The scientist’s research found that the collective estimate was incredibly close, 1,198 pounds.

The book suggests that there is an uncanny and generally unconscious collective intelligence at work. The book shows how clouds of birds seem to move in one mind but actually are each acting on their own following four simple rules:

#1) Stay as close to the center as possible.

#2) Stay two body lengths away from your neighbor.

#3) Do not bump into another bird.

#4) If a predator dives at you get out of the way.

The book suggests that rather than crowds being mindless mobs that the many are weirdly smart and effective even when many of the group are average or below in intelligence or experience.

A key point that the article makes is that there is incredible effectiveness in a diversity of individual intelligences and this is why we are sharing ideas about trends at this site. There are thousands of us reading these messages so perhaps our problem solving ability grows to the 4000th power.

However if a high PDI disconnects its leaders from this wisdom… the organization’s wisdom is wasted.

Bank safety is vital now and PDI can count. Here is a wonderful shot taken by our friend Dennis Goff.  Placid… yet most travel accidents… in air and by oat are caused by a high PDI. The Captain does not listen to his crew!

When you travel… wen you bank… when you invest look for low PDI!

High Energy Sunrise

This is why you may want to join me with the staff of Jyske Global Asset Management in Naples Florida to learn more about where in the world to invest now.  Learn how to attend this course free and save $499 to $750.

Until next message good global investing!

Gary

One of the best ways to prosper in this downturn is with your own internet business. You can enroll in our email internet course here for $299. However if you sign up for all three courses in June or later in 2009, I’ll send it free. You save $299. Learn more here

Get our web based course FREE if you join us in Ecuador. Learn more here.

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two

Future 2009 courses

May 29-31  JGAM Florida Investment Course

June 12-14 Shamanic Mingo Tour
June 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
June 18-21 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 3-6 Ecuador Import Export Expedition
July 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
July 10-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Multi Currency Risk Premium


Getting a multi currency risk premium is important because the government bail outs that will be announced in the weeks ahead, whatever they will be, will accelerate inflation. Multi currency risk premiums will help beat the price increases which have already been bad enough.

Emerging real estate and emerging bonds (seen below) are two ways to gain some extra multi currency premiums that can help fight this rise in costs.

The three main multi currency investments that fight inflation are:

#1: Commerce. (normally equities but sometimes bonds as shown below).

Prices have risen on these condos, but still offer an incredible value, plus until October 1, Kjetil is offering the original price (a $10,000 savings) to Ecuador Living subscribers.

For details on the units below contact Thor Anderson at thor@sanclementeecuador.com

#2: The raw materials required by commerce (commodities).

#3 Real estate (required in commerce for production and consumption).

Some real estate markets offer a better risk premium than others. This is what I like about Ecuador. So few people have been there so the majority of the investment market get it wrong. They misunderstand the politics, the people, the rumors of crime, the entire ambiance of the place. This has kept Ecuador real estate prices low. Prices are beginning to rise but are still low in terms of Latin America where a deluge of US, Canadian and European investors are now arriving.

This is why I have been harping on the $79,000 condos (where Merri and I bought) north of Manta.

Ecuador-beach-condo

I doubt that investors will ever see prices this low again in our life time for the quality of construction and so much green space. There are only 63 units on 12 are that include 5,000 fruit trees and an organic vegetable garden. (This one shown above is of course not quite finished.)

Ecuador-beach-condo-clubhouse

Plus such views like this sunset shot I took.

Ecuador-beach-condo-sunset view

Prices have risen on these condos, but still offer an incredible value, plus until October 1, Kjetil is offering the original price (a $10,000 savings) to Ecuador Living subscribers.

For details on the units below contact Thor Anderson at thor@sanclementeecuador.com

However during times (like now) when there is a lot of volatility, some investors need a place to park cash while they wait for the picture to clear.

Where is safe when even money market funds have risk?

The answer is “every type of investment has risk…especially now”. The key is to at least be properly paid for taking it.

Here is a simple fact that can help you spot distortions so you get the maximum bang for your at risk buck.

Industrialized economies seem unable to increase their output at any rate better than about 3% percent a year on a sustained basis. This seems to be a universal standard of human evolution.

This is a huge fact as it means we should not expect major economies to grow faster than about 3%.

This is a baseline that can help us sort out whether an investment has extra or too little risk premium because the baseline for safe savings than should be about the same as industrial growth…3%…if the money supply is keeping pace with the economy.

Bank accounts and government bonds, for example, are perceived as the safest investments (especially if government guaranteed). A look at their long term history shows that they pay about 3%. So if a bank account or government bond pays less…in the long term it’s bad. If it pays more…that’s better. Yet the idea is that bank accounts will not really make money. They will just keep up with growth…at 3%.

Knowing this, rather than wasting time trying to avoid risk…which cannot be done, we can assess risk and what we are paid to take it instead by asking:

#1: How much risk is there in any particular investment?

#2: What perceptions do the market have of the risk?

#3: What risk premium is due?

To get real growth requires taking risk. If an investment appears to be less safe than the safest (that pays 3%) the less safe investment will pay more than 3%. The extra payment is called a risk premium.

Bonds pay more than bank accounts because they are perceived to be less safe. Stocks pay more than bonds because they are perceived even riskier. Emerging market stocks pay more than major market stocks. Emerging market bonds pay more than major markets bonds.

Over the long run, bonds issued in countries and currencies perceived to be stable pay 5% to 7%…if they are issued in their own currencies.

Stocks in major countries should pay 7% to 10% annual return in the stock market as a function of global growth, long term earnings growth plus risk premium (above bank accounts and bonds).

To attain higher growth than 7% to 10% investors must either increase risk, trust luck or spot distortions.

This is good because the market is almost always wrong. Most investors always trying to avoid risk. Most investors dump their wealth into investments that are perceived to be safe. This creates excessive demand and lowers value and actually makes the perception wrong.

Knowing this helps wise investors spot trends created by distortions.

For example, right now short term bonds denominated in Euro issued by major market governments pay about 4.25%. One can increase yield by about 50% by buying emerging government bonds. Here are yields on some short term bonds denominated in euro.

South Africa 2013 6.22%
Philippines 2010 6.19%
Romania 2010 5.16%
Brazil 2012 6.03%
Colombia 2011 6.15%

It is not likely that any of these governments will default on their bonds in this short term…so at a time when equities are very volatile this could be a good place to get out of the US dollar, park cash in euro and still make a bit extra.

We are reviewing five emerging bond portfolios in our online multi currency course this week. You can learn them as a multi currency course subscriber

Until next message, may you get a premium for everything you do.

Gary

I’ll also review these emerging bonds and review my entire portfolio and all this thinking next weekend. October 3-5 in North Carolina at our International Investing and Business Course. Why don’t you join me.

The course was fully booked but we had many late applications and have have moved to a larger meeting room so still have space.

Join me with Thomas Fischer of Denmark’s Jyske Global Asset Management, who was a currency trader for years to review our multi currency portfolio thinking for the year ahead.

To help our subscribers meet and learn, we are giving all delegates at the North Carolina course a FREE year’s subscription to our online multi currency course. This is a $249 value.

This will not be all work-no play. We selected this particular weekend as the most likely to be beautiful with the autumnal leaf change. The colors are glorious.

autumn-gold

Here delegates at a previous course chat during a coffee break.

blue-ridge-leaf-change

Gary

Join us in North Carolina next week end October 3-5 and save $249. Enroll here.

Or join us in November to inspect Ecuador property for sale

Vistazul-Ecuador-beach-condos-model

Our September 17-20 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour; Quito Real Estate Tour was sold out as was our September 28-29 Imbabura Real Estate Tour was sold out.

Our Oct 14-18 Ecuador Import Export Course only has a couple of spaces open.
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-import-and-export-tour

We still have space in November

Join us in Cotacachi at El Meson de las Flores.

cotacachi-daybreak

Nov 7-9 International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/international-business-made-ez-ecuador

See these condos at $46,000 in Cotacachi.

Nov 10-11 Imbabura Real Estate tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-real-estat

Dine with delegates at the Vistazul clubhouse.

Ecuador-fishng-view-4

November 12-15, 2008 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour; Quito Real Estate Tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-coastal-real-estate-tour