Tag Archive | "MXN"

Speculative Swiss


Here is a more speculative approach to the MultiCurrency Sandwich.

In these days of rapid change… government spending and inflation we need to continually look for ways to increase our income just to maintain our purchasing power.    Yet investments such as savings accounts, CDS and government bonds are paying very low returns.

Plus April is the month that begins the season with the lowest traditional stock market returns.

However there are quite safe ways to boost your yields such as the Swiss MultiCurrency Sandwich.  Here is an excerpt from my updated report Borrow Low Deposit High:

Borrow Swiss francs and invest the loan in a portfolio of diversified emerging bonds similar to Jyske Bank’s model bond portfolio.

2010 is the eighth year of Jyske’s model portfolio for emerging-market bonds. This portfolio was designed for long-term investors who want to diversify but be more selective than mutual funds.

Performance since inception is below.

2003 -2.1%
2004  14.7%
2005 27.5%
2006 2.9%
2007 15.1%
2008 -17.6%
2009 24.6%

This is an average return of 9.9% per annum.

The portfolio diversifies into five currencies Mexican peso (MXN), Russian Ruble (RUB),  Hungarian florin (HUF), Brazilian real (BRL) and Turkish try (TRY).

Here is the portfolio

Bond                                               Currency  Yield     Rating
10.00%   Mexican BONO  05.12.2024 MXN  7.87%    Baa1/A
6.25%   EIB                     11.03.2013 RUB    6.06%   Aaa/AAA
6.75%   HGB                   24.02.2017 HUF    7.22%   Baa1/BBB-
8.75%   IBRD                  15.06.2012 BRL     8.16%   Aaa/AAA
8.50%   KFW                  15.01.2013 TRY     9.14%   Aaa/AAA

The average yield 7.69%. The additional profit in the years above comes from the forex gain.

If one borrowed Swiss francs at this time the interest rate (at Jyske) is:

For loan amount $13,000 – $67,000) 2.275%
$67,000 – $134,000 2.125%:
$134,000 – $671,000) 1.875%
$671,000 and above 1.625%

If one invested $100,000 in this portfolio and borrowed $100,000 to invest in the portfolio, the income earned would be.

$200,000 X 7.69%   =                    $15,380

Loan cost $100,000 X 2.125% =      2,125

Income                                              $13,255 or 13.2% on the $100,000 invested.

If one borrowed  $200,000

If one invested $100,000 in this portfolio and borrowed $200,000 to invest in the portfolio, the income earned would be.

$300,000 X 7.69%   =                    $23,070

Loan cost $100,000 X 1.872% =      3,750

Income                                              $19,320 or 19.3% on the $100,000 invested.

19.32% return on a diversified portfolio of investment grade bonds is quite attractive at this time… especially considering that we are entering the season when the stock market is most likely to fall.

Remember never borrow more than you can afford to lose. The update of the report Borrow Low-Deposit High shows the risks… rewards and costs of this and many other MultiCurrency sandwiches.

This is currently offered at the pre-release price of $49, while it is being edited.  In the next week (or two), upon completion of the update edit the price will rise to $79.

Gary

Mother’s Day roses in Ecuador.

ecuador-mother's-day-Roses

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

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There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

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Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

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Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

See this listing at our Ecuador Multiple Listing

vilcabamba estate

Ecuador Stock Market


See below why I am not buying into the Ecuador stock market… or any stock market at all.

First, let me be clear… there is not much of an Ecuador  stock market… never has been and probably won’t be for quite a while.

Merri and I do own a few Ecuador shares… in Cemento, an Ecuador cement company,  but these were purchased years ago when Ecuador had a stock market beginning to boom. Then the economy and sucre collapsed and all the Ecuador banking shares (including the ones we held) rushed to zero.

The Ecuador cement shares were all that was left… along with a lesson learned.

Yet there are two other reasons why you’ll not see many Ecuador equities in my portfolio.

In fact, you won’t see many stocks in our portfolio at all.  A review of my recent total asset allocation shows that I hold only 3% in equities.

An excerpt from our recent Multi Currency Update shows that I do not hold many shares at all and why I am not buying more now.

Last week my account adviser at Jyske Global Asset Management sent me this note.

Gary, The USD on the move!  The main focus this week has been on the FX market. We have had a long period of a declining US Dollar against most other currencies. The market participants have been waiting for an excuse to take profits. The market got its excuse last week, where we for the first time saw better than expected US unemployment figures. The non-farm payrolls where better than expected and the unemployment rate dropped to 10%. When the numbers hit the market the EUR/USD was trading above 1.5000 and during this week the USD strengthened approximately 5%, currently trading at 1.4350.

The correction of the EUR/USD also indicates that the psychology in the market could have changed. During 2009 improving economic figures led to a risk-on scenario where investors began  to diversify in to  more speculative markets and at the same time exiting the USD safe-haven. The change in psychology has resulted in a focus on possibly increasing interest rates as the economies worldwide begin to improve. The US economy shows signs of improvement and investors are thus beginning to focus on being long USD assets.

The FED however announced no change in the FED funds after their meeting on Wednesday. Bernanke told the market on the following press conference that the interest rate would remain unchanged until the economy is back on track and we see a significant drop in the unemployment rate. We therefore believe that the current strength in USD is temporary and we do expect the EUR/USD to turn around and once again go toward our target of 1.5500.

The main focus in Europe during the week has been on the down grading of the sovereign debt of Greece to BBB+, by both FITCH and S&P. Both rating agencies, still have Greece on a negative watch. The 10 year government bond of Greece now pays a historical 250 bps more than a 10 year German government bond.

Norway once again increased their interest rate with 25 bps, from 1.5% to 1.75%. Norway has seen an increase in the private consumption and a hot real estate market. The Central bank of Norway thus chose to increase the interest rate, even though the industrial production in Norway still suffers.

That note from my adviser cemented my thinking that the greenback’s upswing creates a good time to further reduce US dollar positions. I am reducing my euro positions as well.

The global economy continues to upswing and eventually interest rates will be heading up…. bit equities are at risk due to the chances of another economic slowdown and massive government economic stimulation that has supported high risk speculation.

So last week I added more emerging currencies with higher interest rates by liquidating my Jyske Invest Danish Bond Fund and Jyske Invest Euro Bond Fund.

I used the proceeds to purchase higher interest rate bonds away from the euro and mostly into the dollar zone but not the US dollar itself.

I purchased:

NOK 4% Rabo Bank 29.05.2013 (AAA)     101,25   3,60% p.a.
CAD 4,95% KFW October 2014  (AAA)      109,60  2,80% p.a.
EUR 7,25% Bombardier 15.11.2016 (BB+) 102,25  6,70% p.a.
AUD 6,00% EIB 14.08.2013 (AAA)            101,60   5,50% p.a.
NZD 6,50% EIB 10.09.2014 (AAA)            104,50   5,39% p.a
MXN 8% Bonos 19.12.2013 (A+)               103,60   6,97% p.a.
BRL 11,25% EIB 14.02.2013 (AAA)           104,75   9,41% p.a.

I also sold my Hungarian government bonds and bought the Polish bond below with the proceeds.

PLN 6,50% EIB 12.08.2014   (AAA)            107,00   4,77% p.a.

I see any period of US dollar strength as an opportunity to exit the greenback and accumulate other currencies.

Learn how to get my regular portfolio updates.

The personal reasons why I do not invest much in shares is based on three cornerstones in Merri’s and my lifestyle and investing philosophy.

Cornerstone #1:   Know Thyself.

Cornerstone #2: Be True to Thyself.

Cornerstone #3: Turn Your Passion into Profit.

Merri and I love our business. We earn more than enough from it and…  we gain enormous fulfillment from serving others.

Plus we love buying and fixing up real estate. If you have been sharing this site from long you have read our escapades buying real estate in North Carolina, Ecuador and now again in Florida.

We love fixing up real estate in Ecuador and…

Ecuador-house-for-sale

on our North Carolina farm…

golden-mean

and…

ecuador-future

at the lakefront in Florida.

On the dark side, we hate accounting. We cannot read balance sheets… nor do we trust them much… so we tend to avoid equities… which historically overall are the best investments of all…. if… you ignore the three cornerstones.

We only have two shares… Bank of Florida and Jyske Bank…. because we know (and like) the people and the concepts involved.  Plus we understand the financial business.  Otherwise the most we do in shares… even though we have helped others make many millions in the stock market… is buy ETFS or mutual funds.

When we invest in shares there are three factors we continually look for…

Investing Factor #1: Contrasts.

Investing Factor #2: Trends.

Investing Factor #3: Value.

We are always looking for contrasts in value that will eventually create trends.

This is why we began buying real estate in Florida and are not investing in many equities now.  A recent New York Times article “New Slip in Housing Prices Undercuts Fragile Optimism” by David Streitfeld explains why.  Here is an excerpt:

Just as the economy is finally beginning to strengthen, the real estate market is showing new signs of deterioration.  Prices slipped in many cities in October, new figures show, despite low mortgage rates and a generous tax credit meant to spur sales. Now rates are starting to rise, making it harder for many buyers to afford a house, and the tax credit seems to be losing its capacity to lure them into the market.

The renewed worries about housing come against a backdrop of improvement in the broader economy.  Surveys suggest consumers are growing more confident. That better mood probably helped improve holiday retail sales. The number of people joining the ranks of the jobless is dwindling, while the hiring of temporary workers is up, a traditional harbinger of recovery.

Still, economic growth for the third quarter was more modest than originally reported; it was revised down to an annual rate of 2.2 percent from 2.8 percent. Many economists are fretting that housing could drag down the tenuous recovery.

The figures released Tuesday showed that the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index, a widely watched measure of housing markets in 20 metropolitan areas, rose 0.4 percent in October from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
It was the fifth consecutive month that prices were up, but the rate of increase has dropped sharply from the impressive gains of the summer. Prices in nine of the 20 cities were flat or down.

“I’m worried. Everyone’s worried,” said Karl E. Case, the Wellesley College economist who helped design the housing index that provided fresh cause for alarm on Tuesday. “If prices sink 15 percent from here, which is a possibility, and the 2008 and 2009 loans go bad, then we’re back where we were before — in a nightmare.”

One might think why invest in real estate… not stocks… when real estate seems down.

Due to the last economic downturn… many governments… led by the US… spent trillions flooding the market with easy money… for big banks.

These big banks in turn borrowed the money and poured that money into stock markets.  This made the banks look profitable and pushed stock markets up… at the expense of currencies around the world.

Government spending rarely works efficiently as evidenced by the multi billions spent of security that missed a Nigerian, whose father’s warning to the US Embassy validated a risk… that the CIA had already picked up… even though he was on a risk list… and after buying a ticket for cash…. and arriving without luggage… he was allowed to walk onto a plane headed for the US with a bomb in his underwear.

This post 9-11 security may not have been such a great government investment.

Just imagine that the economic spending from the governments of the world have created the same situation… making the public feel better when  the reality is… the risk is the same… or actually worse… because of the government’s heavy handed involvement.

If the economy once again stalls…  the stock markets… many of which are thinly traded… will collapse like a house of cards. All that government money (actually your money and mine) will be gone.

Repayment of the loss will most likely be made via inflation.  Stock portfolios will be wiped out.

This concerns me.  Jyske Global Asset Managers are concerned as well.  Their low risk managed account for US investors has only 17.5% in equities and they are only in seven investments… of which five are major Blue Chips.

Electricite De France France’s electric company.

Siemens AG a global powerhouse in electronics and electrical engineering, operating in the industry, energy and healthcare sectors.

Bayer AG, a global enterprise with companies in almost every country.

G4S Plc the world’s leading international security solutions group, operating in over 100 nations.

Novartis AG Reg.  the largest producer of insulin.

Only a very small portion of the portfolio is in other equities, iShares II BRIC and Jyske Invest IT Equities.

If we see a double dip recession, then real estate will remain depressed perhaps for a bit.  However there is real utility in real estate and the very inflation that could ruin so many investors will benefit those who hold real estate (and can hold on) plus those who hold commodities and have their own business.

There is no doubt still some good individual shares but overall shares offered good value early last year… not now so investors should beware.

Gary

We hope you will join us for seminars and tours in 2010.

If you plan to join us at six or more seminars and tours in Ecuador, Florida or  North Carolina in 2010 you can save as an International Club member

See details about each of our seminar and tours below… then see our December special that allows you to attend as many of these courses you like at a huge savings.

For International Investing and Business.

For Super Thinking + Spanish

For Ecuador Shamanic Tour

For Ecuador Export

For North Andes, Imbabura & Cotacachi

For Manta & Mid Coast

For Quito & Mindo

For Salinas & South Coast

For Cuenca

You gain discounts by attending multiple seminars and tours.

Here are our multi tour adventure discounts.

Two Pack… 2 seminar courses & tours $998 Couple  $1,349 Save $149 on couple

Three Pack… 3 seminar courses & tours   $1399 Couple  $1,899 Save $98 single or $348 on a couple or more

Four Pack… 4 seminar courses & tours   $1,699 Couple $2,299 Save $98 single or $697 on a couple or more

Five Pack… 5 seminar courses & tours  $1,999 Couple $2,699 Save $496 single or $1,046 on a couple or more

Six Pack… 6 seminars courses & tours  $2,199 Couple $3,099 Save $795 single or $1,395 on a couple or more

But our 2009 International Club membership which allows you and a guest to attend as many of the 56 courses and tours we’ll sponsor and conduct in 2010  (fees would be $40,947 for all these courses individually) is only $2,999.

The International club fee rises to $3,500 in January 2010. Enroll in the International Club now at the original fee of $2,999. Save $501.

International Club 2010

Attend our 56 investment, business, Spanish, real estate and export, courses and tours in 2010 with one small enrollment fee.

International Club 2010 Membership Enroll here

Here are the 56 courses and tours you can attend free. Plus there is even one more savings you will see below.

Jan.   8-11     Ecuador Export Tour
Jan. 13-14     Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Jan. 15-18     Coastal Real Estate Tour
Jan. 19-20    Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour
Jan. 21-23    Cuenca Real Estate Tour

Join us in February or March.

Feb. 11-14   Quantum Wealth Florida -International Investing & Internet Business, Mt. Dora, Fl.

Feb. 15-16   Travel to and visit Quito
Feb  17         Travel to Manta
Feb. 18-19   Coastal Real Estate Tour
Feb. 20        Travel to Cotacachi
Feb. 21-22   Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Feb. 23-24  Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour
Feb. 26-27  Cuenca Real Estate Tour

Mar. 11-14     Super Thinking + Spanish Course, Mt. Dora, Fl.
Mar. 15-16    Travel to Quito and Andes
Mar. 17-18     Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Mar. 19-20    Cotacachi Shamanic tour
Mar. 22-23    Coastal Real Estate Tour
Mar. 25-26    Cuenca Real Estate Tour
Mar. 28-29   South Coast Real Estate Tour

Apr. 12-15   Ecuador Export Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Apr. 17-18   Imbabura Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Apr. 20-21  Coastal Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Apr. 23-24  Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Apr. 26-27  Cuenca Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)

May  13-14     Ecuador Shamanic Minga  ($499 or couple $749)
May  16-17    Imbabura Real Estate Tour  ($499 or couple $749)
May  19-20    Coastal Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
May  22-23    Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour  ($499 or couple $749)
May  25-26    Cuenca Real Estate Tour  ($499 or couple $749)
May  28-29    South Coast real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)

June 24         Quantum Wealth North Carolina
June 25-27    International Investing and Business North Carolina  ( $749 or couple $999)
June 28-29   Travel to Ecuador and Andes
June 30-Jy 1 Imbabura Real Estate Tour  ($499 or couple $749)
July 3-4          Coastal Real Estate Tour   ($499 or couple $749)
July 6-7          Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour    ($499 or couple $749)
July 9-10        Cuenca Real Estate Tour   ($499 or couple $749)

Sept.   3-6      Ecuador Export Tour  ($499 or couple $749)
Sept.   8-9      Imbabura Real Estate Tour  ($499 or couple $749)
Sept. 11-12     Coastal Real Estate Tour   ($499 or couple $749)
Sept. 14-15     Cuenca Real Estate Tour    ($499 or couple $749)
Sept. 17-18     Ecuador Shamanic Minga  ($499 or couple $749)
Sept 20-21      South Coast Real Estate tour ($499 or couple $749)

Oct.    7          Quantum Wealth North Carolina
Oct.   8-10     International Investing & Business North Carolina ($749 or couple $999)
Oct.   11-12    Travel to Quito and Andes
Oct.  13-14     Imbabura Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Oct.  16-17     Coastal Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Oct.  19-20    Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Oct. 22-23     Cuenca Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)

Nov.    4-7        Super Thinking + Spanish Course Florida ($749 or couple $999)
Nov.    8-9       Travel to Quito and Andes
Nov. 10-11       Imbabura Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Nov. 13-14      Coastal Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Nov. 16-17      Quito-Mindo Real Estate  ($499 or couple $749)
Nov. 19-20     Cuenca Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Nov  22-23      South Coast Real Estate Tour (($499 or couple $749)

Dec.   3-5       Ecuador Shamanic Mingo  ($499 or couple $749)
Dec.   7-8       Imbabura Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Dec.  10-11    Coastal Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Dec. 13-14     Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Dec. 16-17      Cuenca Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)

If you join the International Club, the entrance fee for 2010 is $2,999 (until January 2010).  Your attendance fees at all courses will be waived. You and your guest can attend courses worth $40,947.

You can calculate the savings as our schedule of all 2010 courses is shown below.

Arrival dates are always one or two days earlier. Please double check with us before booking flights.

I invite you to be a member of the International Club which allows you and your guest of your choice to attend all of these courses which are valued at $40,947!

International Club 2010 Membership Enroll here

You may well wonder why I would make such an offer and ask why the cost is so low? Let me answer this question frankly and from the heart.

First, it helps us do a better job for you. We feel greatly enriched when we can really help our clients improve their lives. We have learned through years of experience the best way to do this is to meet with you regularly. We can best help you learn how to improve your health and wealth through continual expansion of knowledge.

Second, we gain enormous fulfillment from the many friendships we form through the years. Our friends have enriched our lives tremendously. Let me explain this in more detail.

As a member, you will be part of our international family that meets intensively over the next year to examine ways we can make our lives better. Our goal is beyond just having money. Our goal is to have quantum wealth… good health… wealth and fulfillment through service.

Though I give all course delegates my very best, I cannot help but to do a better job for those who come again and again. As we meet often; your particular wants, needs and desires become clear, and it is easier for me to point you in the right direction.

Another phenomenon is that repeat delegates help each other! They get to know one another, help each other learn, share their insights, make contacts and gain more wealth.

Out associates in Ecuador, are experienced business people who live or work and conduct our real estate and export courses.  They can also act as your local backup for the business.

Lifestyle for Two. There is more! I have learned at my courses that many repeat delegates were couples.

We want couples! As a member of the program, you are entitled to bring another person to every single course or tour. The cost for that extra person will be ZERO!  You can bring whomever you wish. Bring your spouse, a friend, son or daughter, partner, accountant, adviser. You can bring the same person each time or a different person, whomever you choose to accompany you. (Accommodations and air fares relating to the courses are not included for members, delegates or their guests.)

Won’t you join us in this exciting club and share Merri’s and my lifestyle for the next year? We look forward to seeing you at as many courses as possible and sharing this wonderful world of abundance and well being with you!

Gary

International Club 2010 Membership  Enroll here

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