Tag Archive | "MSCI World"

Major Market Value Update April 2012


See Keppler’s Latest Major Market updates below.

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This chart from finance.yahoo.com shows a worrying head and shoulders pattern.

The head and shoulders pattern is a reversal pattern most often seen in uptrends.  This is most reliable when found in an uptrend and shows that the market has begun to slow down as the forces of supply and demand are becoming unbalanced.   This fits with one of the foundations in our investing philosophy that “periods of high performance are followed by periods of low performance and vice versa”.

Already as you’ll see below some big money was just lost in the markets.

There are three steps that can help protect you from such volatility so you can retire from the rat race at any age in this world of rapid change.

#1: Learn how to be healthier, smarter and more intuitive.

#2: Use the added advantages from Step #1 to learn how to earn by filling a purpose you truly enjoy.

#3: Learn how to invest your extra earnings from Step #2 into good value multicurrency investments.

The best way to enhance profits and protect against loss is by always seeking value.

Understanding good value is the tricky part.

This is why once a quarter we look at a major and emerging equity market valuation analysis by Michael Keppler.  Michael’s firms are the best when it comes to value analysis of stock markets.

Here is an update on the values of major stock markets by Keppler Asset Management.

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Michael Keppler

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Multi Currency Subscribers can see the total 85 page major market value report at your password protected site. Click here.

Learn how to become a multi currency subscriber here.

Recent Developments & Outlook

Global Equities continued their recent uptrend in the first quarter 2012. The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) finished the quarter up 11.2 %, up +11.6% in US dollar and up +8.8 % in Euro, respectively.

After having lost 3.2 % versus the US dollar in 2011, the Euro gained 2.6 % in the first quarter 2012. It now stands at 1.3317 (USD/EUR) compared to 1.2982 at year-end 2011.

Twenty-two markets advanced in the first quarter, two markets declined.

Japan had the highest return (+19 %), followed by Germany (+17.9 %) and Belgium (+16 %).

Spain (-5.7 %), Portugal (-0.9 %) and Canada (+4.4 %) performed worst last quarter. Performance is shown in local currencies, unless mentioned otherwise.

Fundamentals have improved further over the last 12 months: Book values, cash flows and dividends of the Equally Weighted World Index grew by 7.4, 6.3 and 17.2 percent, respectively.

Earnings, however declined by 0.6 percent compared to March 2011.

The Top Value Model Portfolio, based on the Top Value Strategy (December 1969 = 100) using national MSCI country indices as hypothetical investment vehicles, finished the first quarter  up +12.7 %), in US dollars up +14.2 %) and in Euro up +11.3 %.

There were no changes in our performance ratings last quarter.

The Top Value Model Portfolio holds the six “Buy”-rated markets Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Norway at equal weights. According to our analyses, a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The table below shows how the Major Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI World Index, the MSCI Europe Index and the MSCI US Index as of March 31, 2012 based on selected variables (current numbers for book value; 12-month trailing numbers for the other variables – no forecasts).

To demonstrate the current attractiveness of global equities in general, I also show the key variables of the MSCI World Index as of December 31, 1999, when the MSCI World Index reached its all-time-high.

Which portfolio would you rather have? Don’t get fooled by the 15.1 % to pay a premium of 131 % over the current book value to receive this return, return on equity of US stocks. You have if you enter the market at current prices.

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Wouldn’t you rather have a return on equity of 8.4 % at a Price/Book Value of 1.09, which translates into an earnings yield of 7.8 % as compared to 6.5 % for US equities?

You have to decide whether higher expected earnings growth in the US may justify this type of a premium.

While nobody in a sane mental condition would opt for the MSCI World Index at the valuation levels experienced at the end of the last millennium, global equity investors should ask themselves what makes more sense today:

– Invest in US equities at a valuation premium of 55% compared to the MSCI Europe Index,

– Invest in the MSCI World Index at a valuation premium of 28% compared to the MSCI Europe Index,

– Invest in the Top Value Markets at a valuation discount of 39% compared to the MSCI World Index.

In my more than 30 years’ experience, I have never seen such a bad sentiment towards continental Europe. After a strong start in 2012, chances are good for a continuation of rising stock prices in general for the coming years.

If history is any guide, chances are better still for the Major Markets Top Value Model Portfolio.

This view is supported by our implicit three-to-five-year projection for the compound annual total return of the Equally-Weighted World Index, which now stands at 15.3 %, down from 17.6 % last quarter.

The upper-band estimate of 13,835 by March 31, 2016 implies a compound annual total return of 20.7 %; the lower-band value of 9,223 corresponds to a compound total return of 9.0 % p.a. Even our worst case makes equities look attractive — please see chart below, which shows the entire real-time forecasting history of Keppler Asset Management Inc. for the Equally Weighted World Index.

These numbers are based on relationships between price and value over the previous fifteen years. Given the current low levels of interest rates – real rates are negative in most places – I would like to point out that we do not have to be right with regard to the magnitude of our projections, but only directionally for investors to make money.

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Michael Keppler New York, April 16, 2012

We can see from Keppler’s analysis some really great value in the major markets

Multi currency subscribers can see an 85 page value report that values every market and shows the bad and neutral markets as well. Go to your password protected page here.

See how to subscribe and receive the password and the 85 page report extra below.

 

Ecuador Tickets


See how to save up to $658 on Ecuador tickets to the Galapagos Island tours plus one of the most important international investing thoughts you may see this year.

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First, here is an international investing thought we reviewed at our  recent International Investment and Business Course. Then we’ll look more at Ecuador tickets and how to get Galapagos cruise savings.

Yesterday’s message International Investment Gains looked at the fact that the Dow has moved in 15 to 17 year up and down cycles.  We saw that the Dow is into the twelfth year of a down cycle that started in 1998.  When we compared the Dow’s movements for the last two years to the equivalent time in the previous (1968 to 1982) down cycle, we saw that these two years had an amazing 93% correlation.

This led us to the question…What is next?  See below in blue what the Dow did between 1980 and 1982.

The chart below from Moore Research compares the Dow from 1978 through 1980 to the Dow of the last 18 months. The Blue line is what happened in the equivalent period in the 1970s for the next two years.  Ignore the black line (this is how the Dow has just moved). There should not be and is little correlation.

What is important is understanding the blue line. This what the Dow did during in the equivalent period (1978 to 1980) in the 1968 to 1982 downturn. The black line represent the Dow’s recent activity and should not matter.

This is a really important international investment thought. If history repeats,  if the Dow’s movement from now to mid 2011 has as strong a correlation as 2007 to 2009 had to 1978 to 1980, then the current uptick in the US market is simply bait leading most investors to slaughter!

This chart suggests that soon we will see a sharp correction in the market followed by a period of  very volatile sideways movement.

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Jyske Global Asset Management is suspicious of markets as as well.  Thomas Fischer, Senior VP JGAM, spoke at our July 2009 International Investment Course about the fact that the current upwards trend in the market is not supported by economic fundamentals.

He reconfirmed this when he shared market comments yesterday that said:

Another week with positive trends in global markets. The MSCI World Index is up 1.37% this week but uncertainty about the direction of the market is beginning to show. On Tuesday the Chinese stocks plunged 5% as investors became nervous about the fast share price gains in the Shanghai Composite Index of almost 80% in 2009. The banking industry has seen some very good second quarter reports, but many banks have dramatically increased their provisions against bad loans due to continued pressure on the credit environment. On Tuesday the share price for Deutsche Bank tumbled 11% even though it reported a net income of USD $1.4 billion in the second quarter as bad loan provisions of USD $1.4 billion spooked investors. Consumers are still “maxed out” and with rising unemployment and none existing wage pressures. It will probably take some time before consumers return to the shopping malls in droves as indicated in the consumer confidence number for July showing a fall from 49.3 to 46.6. The big $64,000 question is whether we will have inflation or deflation and at the moment it certainly does not look like inflation. The Fed’s latest survey (Beige Book) shows an economy that is still very weak and the so called  “green shoots” will take a long time to grow.

Jyske Bank and JGAM are one of the few truly international banks that still provides a service for Americans. Learn more about JGAM from Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

In other words… be very cautious about speculating in the equity market.

See an entire report on this as a Multi Currency Portfolios Course subscriber.

Or join us to update what is happening at at our October 9, 10,  11 IBEZ North Carolina Seminar

Here is what a delegate shared about our July seminar:

Merri, My wife and I would like to thank you and Gary for a wonderful course. We thoroughly enjoyed all the information presented by Gary, Thomas and David. And we thank you for your hospitality with having us to your lovely “piece of paradise” in Lansing. The lunch was delicious and your presentation of import/export items was quite interesting.  We look forward to visiting Ecuador in September of 2010. And we look forward to visiting and staying at your hotel in Cotocatchi. Thank you again for a truly life changing and life enhancing weekend. Best regards,

Now let’s look at how a  $119 Ecuador Living subscription can help you save up to $658 on Ecuador Galapagos tickets on one of the most luxurious Galapagos cruises on this catamaran the M/S Nina with this excerpt from the Ecuador Living article Ecuador Galapagos Tickets.

Our friend Kjetil Haugan, the largest Galapagos Ecuador cruise operator just sent us this note.

Dear Friends!  Greetings from Haugan Cruises!

I would like to remind you of the promotions on our fleet for July until December 2009. Please find our special deals below.

The M/C Nina.

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The Nina is also a 16 passenger luxury catamaran, with four main deck double or twin cabins, two single cabins and four upper deck  double cabins, with a king size bed.

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Nina King

All the cabins have a private balcony and the windows can be opened, except for the single cabins that have sealed windows, but still have a little balcony.

The Nina offers eight day cruises only and the normal cruise fee is $4,390 per person in a double cabin.

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Nina Deck

We are offering 2 x 1 deals August 25 – September 1 and Nov 24th to Dec 1st.

We are offering a $1,000 discount  + a flight ticket (Quito to the Galapagos) for August 18 – 25th and September  8 – 15th September 15th – 22nd, Oct 13th – 20th, Oct 20th – 27th and Oct 27th – Nov 03.

For additional information and added discounts see Ecuador Galapagos Tickets.

This is the ticket to the Galapagos, Ecuador!

Haugan tours pays tour operators commissions on these tours but as publishers we do not accept commissions so pass this on to our subscribers in the form of savings that amount to as much as $658.

If you are an Ecuador Living subscriber, contact us to calculate your 15% discount for your Ecuador Galapagos tour.

If you are not an Ecuador Living subscriber and want to go to the Galapagos, you can save money AND have your subscription free!  Learn how to subscribe here.

Gary

Join Merri me and Thomas Fischer of JGAM and our webmaster David Cross in North Carolina this October.

Learn more about global investing, how to have an international business and early retirement in Ecuador at the course.

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Or join us in Ecuador and learn more about living and retiring in Ecuador.

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two.

See other Ecuador tickets to Galapagos cruises here.

International Investing Trick


Here is a global diversification trick that may do well in the likely global economic scenario ahead. Buy good value shares internationally as markets dive during the summer dip.

In a moment we’ll look at some Ecuador health ideas… first the investing trick.

Global equity markets have been in a bear market rally for six months but are now hitting the summer blues due to seasonality.

Share prices will probably drop now. Chances are there will be a strong global equity slump at least through October 2009.

This will create extra value in equity markets and provide good opportunity to pick up high value long term.

The bear market is likely to carry on until 2012-13, but good value shares acquired during dips are more likely to spike early and have extra potential after the bear ends.

Now through October 2009 could be a good time to invest in high value shares for long term appreciation.

But which shares… in which markets?

One way to approach this is to look for extra value created by inefficiencies in markets…to find markets where the values are best.

Statistically this is the best way to be absolutely sure of the best long term returns.

There are numerous investment managers who use very strict valuation criteria (usually based on dividend yields, cash flow, price earnings) to spot the best value markets.  They then try to apply similar criteria to select good value shares in the good value market.

The next goal is to decide how much should be weighted in major market and how much in emerging markets.

Here is a comparison of the Morgan Stanley Major Market versus Emerging Market indices.

The MSCI World Index is a market capitalization weighted index that measures the equity market performance of developed markets.  It includes 23 developed market country indices : Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The MSCI Emerging Market Index includes Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey.

MSCI Indices performances.  Total per annum return over:

Major                            Emerging
15 years    4.10%                   5.41%
10 years  -3.85%                   9.11%
5 years    -2.77%                  11.16%
3 years   -10.81%              -00.17%
1 year      -20.81%             -27.53%
3 mos.      14.30%               27.53%

Regardless of the time frame observed,  the emerging equities almost always seriously outperformed major markets… but as a class they also dropped further in the 2008 downturn.

Here is a year-on-year comparison for the past five years.

Major                   Emerging
2003  10.74%           29.63%
2004    6.46%           16.51%
2005   26.17%           54.41%

2006     7.40%          18.23%

2007     -1.66%         25.71%
2008   -50.30%      -37.64%
2009      5.39%         34.79%  3 months

This history suggests that emerging markets deserve a substantial ranking.

However before becoming too aggressive in over weighting emerging markets, we have to keep in mind two thoughts.

First economic thought. The last 15 years has been a catch-up era when the investing world caught on to the idea that emerging markets offered great opportunity.

Second economic thought. A great deal of emerging growth came from debt financed exports to the developed world. This leaves emerging economies holding huge amounts of debt for customers who may not be able to repay the debt nor continue to buy the same volume of goods as before.

The easiest way for investors to invest in good value during dips is via a value mutual fund.

You can select a value major market fund, a value emerging market fund or a value diversified fund.

The benefit of a value diversified fund is that the professional manager decides how much to weight in emerging and major markets.

For example I just sent a lesson to our multi currency subscribers that showed a US traded international diversified value fund that has risen 36.08% in the past quarter ending June 30, 2009.  This fund is 86% in major markets and 14% in emerging markets.

Learn how to read about this fund as a multi currency subscriber.

The most valuable asset we can have in tough economic times is good health. This is why we studied Ecuador health ideas at our June tour.

Cotacachi is considered sacred by the shamans… a place of wonderful mountains that ring the valley.  This is Mt. Cotacachi to the west.

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Mt. Imbabura to the east.

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The valley is surrounded by mountains like these twin peaks…

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creating wonderful, mystic  sunrises.

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The first afternoon of the tour we visited La Mirage Spa and the Shamana Estella.

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She began a theme that the many shamans we visited confirmed.   She said that the three keys to better health, increased longevity, more energy and fulfillment are good nutrition, proper exercise and good sleep.

The purpose of the Ecuador shamanic tour is to learn ways to unlock this healthy  combination in a natural low cost way!

The second day we joined Clemencia, the Shamana of Zuleta and drove 15 minutes from our hotel Meson de las Flores to Otavalo market where we visited the local food market…

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filled with fruits…

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vegetables…

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flowers and …

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herbs.

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Here is the shamana speaking to the group with Merri and Mauricio translating.

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We learned the importance of the herbs to make good teas that hydrate the body are cedron, chamomile and lemon verbena.

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We learned how other herbs relax such as chamomile and valerian root. Plus we were told to boil lettuce in milk as a prebedtime drink for better sleep.

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On the other hand, tea from cinnamon, paprika, cloves and ginger help reduce sluggishness in digestion and to speed the system when we need to be fired up.

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You can read this entire report as an Ecuador Living subscriber.

Gary

We hope you’ll join us and enjoy Ecuador’s or North Carolina’s beauty soon.

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Sunrise from Meson de las Flores.

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Or join us in Ecuador and learn more about living and retiring in Ecuador.

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two.