Tag Archive | "msci"

Win Win at the Panama Canal

Here are two events that can bring you win-win investment opportunities.

The first is taking place in China. China has the largest and one of the fastest growing economies in the world.  However, due to a natural slowdown in this growth, investors have panicked.  The Chinese Stock Market and China’s currency have collapsed.

Yet China’s global economic influence grows.

For example, the $5.4 billion Panama Canal expansion opened this week.  The first vessel through was not American or European.  The Chinese merchant ship, Cosco Shipping Panama, led the way.   This photo from a USA Today article shows it crossing the new Cocoli Locks at the Panama Canal on June 26, 2016.  (1).


The good value Chinese market offered special opportunity before Brexit.  Brexit made the potential better because since the exit vote, the Chinese yuan fell to its weakest point against the US dollar since 2010. (2)

The second opportunity is in the UK as the British pound has fallen into the low 1.3 dollars per pound range.  I have seen the pound as low as 1 pound per dollar ($1.05 officially and I made a big forex profit then).  You can see that pound crash in the 1980s in the chart below (3).

The same potential exists now.

british pound

Here is why both of these forex positions are win-win situations.   Each currency has the potential for a quick rebound (and profit).  Yet if the currency remains weak for some time, both the UK and Chinese Stock Markets are good value markets.  If you invest in British and Chinese shares, your odds of long term profit are maximized, plus you have the extra short term potential for forex profit.

Here is what I do.  My basic strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of good value markets as defined by Keppler Asset Management.  Statistically, this is the best way to easily outperform global equity markets.  I emphasize the word easily.  A key feature of this strategy is that I don’t have to spend much time trading based on short term volatility.  I have too many other things I enjoy doing more.

Currently there are 20 good value markets, 10 good value developed markets and 10 good value emerging markets.  I invested 70% in the good value markets and 30% in the emerging markets using Country ETFs. Each of the ETFs invest in the MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital) Index of one of the markets.

From this base, from time to  time, I speculate by emphasizing one market or another.  For example, due to the special Chinese opportunity, I treat China as a developed market instead of an emerging market.  Thus it gets almost 7% of my portfolio instead of 3%.  The UK is a good value developed market and one way to speculate on this special position is to overweight the UK position (about 7% of the total portfolio) by perhaps doubling the weighting with a pound margin loan.

Most investors maximize their returns by investing into a broadly based good value portfolio. When we have such a base of investments, we can cautiously expand our positions during special circumstances  (such as in the UK and China) to add spice to a logical long term position.


(1) usatoday.com 54 billion panama canal expansion opens

(2) www.wsj.com yuan falls to weakest point against dollar

(3) British pound history

How to Have Peace & Profit

There are still ways to reduce stress.

Prolonged exposure to stress is the # 1 root of death and disease in our modern world.

Stress can ruin your health and wealth… in many ways.

Daily stress has been magnified because we no control, no way out of the current global political and economic mess.  The news makes current problems feel like things are getting worse.

This downwards spiral leads to health problems, heart disease, hypertension, impaired immune function, infertility, and mental illness.

The health problems lead to economic problems from loss of income, poor investment decisions and high disease management costs.



Yet there is a way back.

I was reminded of this once when I made a horrible mistake.

The supposed error?  Letting my mind wander six decades back to an hour I spent with a girl.

Learn from this near disaster, seven most powerful sources of wealth, health, security and fulfillment in this era.

The girl was pretty and blond.  Terry was her name. My imagination spanned decades returning to my Oregon roots seeing her as if she were there.

We were 11 or 12 and had known each other since we started Rockwood grade school.  Just buddies, our non-romantic friendship lasted 12 years, from first grade till high school’s end.  Then she went off to Pepperdine College in California.  I started traveling the world.  Never saw her again.  I hope her life has gone well.  But until that reflection I’d never thought much of Terry in so many years.

What could have been the tragic error was letting that memory touch my heart.  Two kids, walking on a crisp, Pacific Northwest autumnal afternoon.

We walked down a sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt path.  Huge, fat, green Douglas firs lined the road.  Traffic was no problem, not many cars.  Crossing Stark Street we turned left, hiking three blocks to 182nd.  There we passed an old clapboard candy store.  I can still hear the wooden sidewalk of that store slap beneath my feet, felt the soggy planks sag and smelled astringent pitch from the fir trees.  Then we turned right, up 182nd for about a mile.  There was Terry’s house.

I carried on, walking through a big field, waist high grass turned straw brown by an early frost.  There were dozens of paths made by who knows what.  Animals perhaps or countless generations of other kids walking home alone from school.  I chose one following it to another wood of tall, rough-barked fir.  Crossing one more field, I climbed a rock wall, struggled through a barbed wire fence (my Mom hated that fence ripping my jeans).  I was home!

Sweet simplicity, that dream.  Two kids holding hands, walking on a dirt trail under a crisp, but blue, sunny sky.  Pure innocence.

My tragic error was looking back.  I returned to Rockwood, Oregon with Merri and my kids to show them this part of their roots.  Following the route, Terry and I had walked were the candy store, grange hall, old wooden buildings and their home spun honesty and charm.

Instead we found six lanes of fast, frantic traffic and road rage.  McDonalds, KFC, strip shopping centers.  The car radio blared warnings of local gangs and drive-by-shootings.

Beauty, innocence, sweet simplicity, replaced by drive ins and drive bys.  Gangs and drive-by shootings replacing a tender walk in the sun.

Good bye memories, good bye.

How can our kids walk in places like this?  How can we return to those old feeling of security and comfort?

How can any of us possibly keep pace in this world that’s moving so fast?

Then something inside snapped.

“There has to be an answer for honest, hard working folks to enjoy the wonderful opportunities of today and regain what we’ve lost over the past forty years”, I swore to myself.

How can we keep up, without having such a fast paced life we turn into machines?  Where do we find time for God, family, charity, and our friends?  How can we rediscover those sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt paths we want to walk?

“There has to be places that are still innocent and pure”, I thought.  “There has to be a way of life that does not pound us with stress”.

This thinking led me to begin reviewing the thousands of economic and business experiences I have shared with readers over the decades.

This started a search for a simpler way of life and a better place to earn and protect our wealth.

By digging, asking and observing, traveling and talking to investors and investment managers all over the world I found that there are true paths to real security in the here and now.  That knowledge helped me develop courses on how to have natural health, everlasting wealth and purposeful investments.

This knowledge helped Merri and me invest in stocks and real estate all over the world.  It helped us find and develop our farms in North Carolina and Florida into sanctuaries.

That almost error led us to create an entire portfolio of information on how to keep pace, get ahead, enjoy our modern society but, to enjoy life wherever you choose without having to move too fast.

This is why I am making a special “Let’s get our lives back” offer.

“What would you think in the last 30 seconds of your life if you were the richest man in the world but were unhappy?”

This quote is from the opening slide of our Value Investing Seminar, “How to Secure Your Future With a Value Breakout Plan”.   This a vital question because few investors think about the value of comfort and happiness.  Yet the truth is, those who are comfortable and happy with their investments are most likely to succeed financially.

Without comfort, no matter how much money a person has, they are more likely to lose it or kill themselves with stress from worry.

There is a way to have the perfect form of financial security.

Let’s call it the perfect pension.  To help understand how to build an unshakable economic platform, here is Part One of the report, The Pruppie Factor.

The Pruppie Factor – Seven Steps to Comfortable Living & Profits.

“May you live in interesting times”.  That’s a Chinese curse that seems to have been cast on our modern world.  We can enjoy comfort and profits in the year ahead despite this fact.

Become a Pruppie.  Integrate your earning with your investing and enjoy peak living, everlasting wealth and natural health with PIEC Investing in the year ahead.

Before we look at what PIEC means, let’s delve into Pruppieism, the new economic and social realism.  Pruppies expect everything to expand.  They take advantage of every new benefit and technology they can.  Pruppies enjoy using the fruits of our ancestor’s deliberations and labors to earn in this advanced technological world.  They also engage in activity that they love that would sustain them in case society and the incredibly intricate weave of our global economy and society should fail.

Pruppies are prepared in case everything, everywhere, or at least everything relating to their income and savings fails and the fabric that surrounds their lives disintegrates into an unknown veil.  Yet a Pruppie’s preparation is not a sacrifice, but a joy as you will see.

Hope springs eternal and it should.  One of the key themes in my first book, Passport to International Profit, (published in the 1970s) was “The Sun Always Shines Somewhere”.  This thought has been in and remains a foundation of everything I do.

Sometimes this sunshine is hard to see because the press always focuses on doom and gloom.  Current news often makes the world seem about to end.  We cannot blame the press. Bad news sells.  The majority seem to want to worry instead of learn about all that’s good.  This does not make doom and gloom right.  This is why the majority are also the rich portion of the population, but bad news is an economic fact for the press.

Yet despite all the negative headlines, we have lived through the Cold War and MAD, Y2K, GridX II, the Peak Oil Crisis, the recession of the 1970s, 1980s 2007, etc. etc. etc.  Chicken Little is always out there, selling the falling sky.  Don’t buy into this story!

History suggests that there will always be opportunity.  The sun always shines somewhere.

Brexit, global warming and the American political process are examples of how the press gravitates to negative news.   The press  make anything and just about everything seem negative.  This can blind us to the positive realities ahead, if we let it.


Expect that the world will remain standing and look for opportunity instead!

Our wealth and economic opportunity is pushed by supply and demand.  We are part of a growing global population.  New technology makes more people, as a whole, more productive every day.  The world has increasingly larger markets creating more supply in increasingly efficient ways.

This reality increases everyone’s wealth.  Yes there is a lot of bad news in many places.  There is inequality.  There is crime.  There is war and hate and injustice.   Despite these negatives there is even more that is positive.  Opportunity grows.

Pruppies tap into and use every bit of the good news they can.  They have a plan B if everything goes wrong, but Plan B is based on something a Pruppie wants to do we love, not just a shelter from bad news.

At the end of this report, you’ll find a special offer that can help you integrate earning and investing for the ultimate form of profit and safety.

Imagine this example of Pruppism.  The Tiffany lamp casts an amber glow, rich, ivory and warm in the grey gloom of early dusk.  The gold knobbed mahogany desk, its deep patina waxed and smooth, shines with reflections of ancient leather Chesterfields stuffed full, but rumpled with age and of maritime shots that hang in brass frames on the wall. The room speaks of settled tradition, the kind that might never end.  But thoughts instead are on the demise of the business that has supported this room.

The late Jim Slater of Slater Walker, a British industrial conglomerate turned bank in the 1970s was in that room.  I recall his bank’s collapse well as I was living in Hong Kong and Slater Walker was a huge going concern in what was a British colony in those days.  The Slater Walker crash was big news that unsettled the entire British banking system at the time.

Slater, the founder, had been a really high roller, using every modern banking tactic available including buying many assets with cheap loans.  Then in the mid 1970s banking crisis interest rates skyrocketed and his bank was unable to refinance its debt.  The company failed and Slater had to resign.  Numerous charges were brought against him and he spent considerable time defending what he had done.

In the end he was only fined a nominal sum but despite this, his banking career was well and truly dead.

However he had already moved on.

He wrote about this in his autobiography, “Return To Go”.  He had always had a hobby making puppet shows and telling stories to his children, so instead of banking, he turned his passion into profit and wrote some children’s books.  His first effort sold a respectable 35,000 copies.  His next a monster series for younger children, became a huge hit.

He had also maintained a hobby of salmon fishing so again turned his passion into profit by creating a business that bought up fishing rights and resold them as time-shares.  He had quite a success.

Some day a catastrophe beyond our control could redirect the course of our lives.  We might lose a job, learn that our pension won’t pay or that our dollars won’t buy as much as they must.

Though Jim Slater was a banker, outside economic forces beyond his control caused his business disaster.  Yet he had options because he had been doing things he loved that were not related to his banking, but could become useful income generators in difficult time.

I do not know if Slater understood Pruppism but that’s what he was practicing.

Pruppism is a positive realism based on the knowledge that much of our lives are directed by events that we do not know or expect and could not change them even if we did.  There is always something we do not know and that’s okay.

Years ago I was speaking at an investing seminar in Marbella Spain.  One of the speakers was a brilliant strategist, Johan Peter Paludan, of the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.  This institute has a large interdisciplinary staff with expertise in economics, political science, ethnography, psychology, engineering, PR and sociology.  They identify and analyze global trends that influence the future.  Paludan was speaking of these trends and answering questions that delegates had about the world’s economic future.

One delegate asked what to do if there was a global nuclear exchange.  Paludan replied that the results of some events are so unpredictable that it is not worth trying to plan for them.

This thought has stuck with me for decades because it helped me realize that no matter how cautious, how defensive and careful we are, there are events that we cannot even imagine that can turn our lives upside down, for the good or bad.  With this in mind my wife Merri and I have created a lifestyle where we turn our passions into profit but in a way that whatever happens we are likely to be in a position to spot the positive and the opportunity.

A PIEC Experience

Pruppies gain the benefits of PIEC wealth.  PIEC is an acronym for “Personal Income Earning Corridor”.  PIEC income and wealth come from doing what you do for love, rather than just the money.

Traditionally people get jobs to create income.  They work to live and support their lifestyle while attempting to spend less than they earn.  They hope, that maybe the savings will bring, sometime in the future, a lifestyle of doing something enjoyable without work.

Pruppies reverse the priorities.  Instead of working for money to save and invest, they focus their prime effort on doing something they enjoy right now.  Then they learn how to enjoy the effort in some profitable way.  They learn to create “Avenues of Abundance” that combine lifestyle with the necessary task of accumulating wealth.

If economic circumstances tie them to an existing income effort, they create hobbies that are income producers of the future.

For example, if a Pruppie loves golf; instead of working six days a week, 50 weeks a year just to golf on Sundays and during short vacations, instead he or she will create a business in some aspect of the golfing trade.

In another example, a client of mine, who loved animals became a vet.  But he learned that the vet’s lifestyle was not one he enjoyed.  He wanted to travel and move around, which is difficult for a professional who needs to stay at his office and build a practice.  So he built a business that prepares special animal foods for race horses.  Now he travels globally visiting horse breeders and makes much more money as well.

Pruppies combine money with time, energy and desires.  They generate income doing something desired.  Desire and fulfillment become at least as, if not more, important as the money.

#1: Do What You Love!

The reason PIECs work well is that when we love to do something, we do it better, for longer and with greater enthusiasm.

Effort, determination and tenacity are wealth building attributes that cannot fail.  Yet Pruppism does not mean we should suddenly abandon our jobs and try becoming golf pros, when we have never been able to break 100.  Smart Pruppies start small and gradually expand into their passion.

For example, as a writer and lecturer, I was never fully satisfied sitting behind a desk or standing on a podium all day long, even though I was making over a million bucks a year. I’m the physical, outdoors type and yearned for exercise and the wilds of the deep woods. “What good’s the money if this isn’t fun?” I often asked myself.

Rather than quit writing and teaching, I looked for ways to combine these professions with the outdoor life.  Through research I learned that many city folk like myself yearn to be in the primitive outdoors.  So I bought an isolated farm high in the Blue Ridge Mountains and an Andean plantation high in Ecuador where I developed seminar centers with charming but simple dwellings, set in rustic surroundings, with clean water and pure air.  Now I live in nature so after I finish the writing or talking, I can walk in the woods or take my axe and chop firewood or something physical.  I’ve combined my writing with physical work and have blended the life I want, with my readers’ needs in a way that makes great financial sense.

We built a series of cabins in the wild that bring more profits than most stocks or bonds could ever return.

The process took six years to shift. Now we have been at this for nearly two decades and we are far from finished.  But while doing what we love, who cares? This is one of the great benefits of PIEC investing. We can slow down and enjoy the work instead of always rushing ahead, looking for something more.

Those who work nine to five can start PIEC businesses part time if they are too uneasy to quit their jobs. Others, who like myself, already have a business can slowly shift their product or service in a sensible way and let it evolve toward their PIEC.

But where do we start?

There is a seven step process we can all use whether we have our own careers, a business or even if we are retired (PIEC investing is especially good for retired folks who have found the supposed good life flat or financially short).

The first step is to get a clear idea or vision of our dream.  This is sometimes harder to achieve than it seems.  We are so deluged with false ideals from Washington, Wall Street, Madison Avenue, etc. that we have to stop and really take stock.  What do we sincerely want?

There is a very practical economic reason to look inwards for wealth.  Warren Buffet recommends that we only invest in what we understand. What can we understand better than ourselves?

This inner search will lead us to an ideal that begins the second step which is gaining enthusiasm.  How can we be anything but enthusiastic about finally fulfilling our deepest dreams?  The enthusiasm leads to the third step; gaining an education.

We need to find out everything we can about our idea.  To succeed we must take the third step and become real experts in the product or service we offer.

Fourth, this educational process allows us to develop an intelligent, focused business plan we can act upon and the action is the fifth step which brings us the experience. Experience gives us the sixth step, a financial loss or profit.  We always profit in increased knowledge which creates the seventh step, more ideas.

Then the entire cycle starts all over again: Idea, Enthusiasm, Education, Action, Experience, Financial Profit and New Ideas.

This is a way to keep adding new opportunities into our lives.  Business is rarely static. It is an ever evolving process instead.

This seven step cycle may take days, weeks, months or years, but the moment you begin you’ll start moving into an avenue of affluence where you love your work so though money isn’t your main goal it comes more easily.

#2: Do what you love, but also be of service.  Do something for others that is meaningful and important to you.

We all have a purpose in life and when we are filling it, we feel fulfilled.  Wealth and fulfillment is the goal.  Fulfillment is important because of the law of diminishing returns.  A 2008 study that analyzed Gallup surveys of 450,000 Americans suggested that day-to-day contentment improves until income hits around $75,000 per annum.  After that, more money just brings more stuff, with far less gain in happiness.  Income beyond $75,000 does not do much for a person’s daily mood.

This is a pretty general study and regional differences in costs, inflation and life circumstances will create many fluctuations from this norm, but the point is when money is the main goal, the better you get, the harder it will be to gain satisfaction.

Giving, on the other hand, never has limitations, especially when the giving helps complete a purpose that is part of our destiny.

This is true in business and investing.  A study of investors for example found that investors with socially responsible ideals gained the best returns.  A dual goal of profit and achieving some social benefit provides a purpose beyond returns.  This brings comfort and determination to the investments and the added stick-to-it-ness helps increase profits.

The study helped define three aspects of investing that are generally ignored, purpose and habits.

Purpose.  Purpose requires some soul-searching questions about what we each want our life to be.  This purpose is more important than the investment goal.  The purpose of the money we have becomes more important than the amount in the portfolio.

Habits.  Habits come next because we need to create habits and routines that keep us on the path of our unique purpose.  The marketplace does all it can to distract us from our goals.  There is an endless stream of news, rumor, conjecture, facts figures, ideas and tactics generated by every part of every stock market aimed at getting us to act in ways that benefit the agenda of others.

Good habits help us avoid being distracted from what we are meant and want to do.  Good habits muffle the noise of Madison Avenue, the spin from Washington DC and the hidden agendas of big business.  These are among the most powerful ways to increase wealth.  Having greater fulfillment as well as more wealth is a bonus that Pruppies call “Everlasting Wealth”.

#3: Integrate your earning and investing. 

Long term success in business and investing are determined by control and comfort.

Comfort comes from feeling in control, but since there is always something we do not know, real comfort comes from knowing that we are serving a valuable purpose, the best we can, regardless of how events unfold.

Real comfort helps maintain determination, dedication and enthusiasm, all among the most vital parts in the process of succeeding in investing and business.

Our own business increases comfort because a business is simply an investment that gives us more control due to the addition of our own time and energy. 

A Personal Income Earning Corridor (PIEC) begin with a main income generator that we control.  For some this is a job with a salary.  For others it is a pension. For many it is their own business using the concepts of SNAP (Small Niche Area Publishing).

Here’s why self publishing offers such great potential.

Sam Walton… or is it Warren Buffet?  Self publishing is based on three cherished beliefs that two of the wealthiest people in the world, Sam Walton and Warren Buffet, shared.

Buffet and Walton shared several cherished business beliefs that you can gain from a special writing and publishing business that is at its very beginning stage.

Cherished Belief #1:  Small is Beautiful.  Both Sam Walton (Bentonville, Arkansas) and Warren Buffet (Omaha, Nebraska) chose America’s heartland away from the big cities as their homes.  What’s more, Walton chose to do business in these small places as well… building the largest retail operation in the world almost entirely in small towns.

Warren Buffet believes that potential in small towns offers special value.  He believes this so strongly that he has been buying newspapers in small towns.

Over the last few years Berkshire Hathaway purchased 63 small and mid-sized daily and weekly newspapers throughout the United States.

He plans to buy more and says: “I like buying individual papers at the right prices.” 

Buffet stated that Berkshire is not buying big newspapers or more newspaper shares. He is sticking with small publications because he believes in the value of local communities.

Cherished Belief #2:  Community Orientation.

Buffet is not buying big publications but is grabbing up small community focused publications.

His bet is that publications focused on local communities can withstand the shift of readers and advertisers to the Internet.

The individual papers can be really small as 10,000 circulation with tiny staffs.

He said no one has stopped reading “half-way through a story that was about them or their neighbors.”

He also noted, “Berkshire buys for keeps. I’d rather buy newspapers myself directly,” and is seeking papers that publish in cities and towns with a “Sense of  Community.”

From this vision WalMart remains committed not just to expanding the businesses but to improving the communities.

You can enjoy all these benefits through Self publishingbecause small communities can be places, ideas or ideas within places.

The factors that makes publications like this successful are its common interests.  Common interest can be focused on a geographical area or a niche idea that targets a niche of a larger market.  For example, the market for truckers is quite large, but trackers that look after their health is a much smaller niche.  One benefit of SNAP publishing is it surrounds you with people who have a common interest, so your readers are like-minded souls.

Cherished Belief #3:  Seek Good Value.

Sam Walton built one of the largest fortunes in the world… with the simple goals of providing great value and great customer service.  Warren Buffett’s belief is that the essence of value investing is buying stocks at less than their intrinsic value.  The discount is called the “Margin of Safety”.

Both Buffet and Walton shared a vision that small towns ignored by the mainstream offered good value.  You can tap into extra profit potential as a SNAP publisher who helps a small community.

Knowing BOTH successful niche magazine publishers and internet marketing geniuses is important for a reason that Buffet outlined to his publishers when he purchased their papers.  Buffet believes that small newspapers will change and that they serve an important purpose.  He said, “Papers must rethink the industry’s initial response to the Internet as focus on continuing to maintain a strong sense of community“.

His bet is that publications focused on local communities can withstand the shift of readers and advertisers to the Internet.  Buffet has said that giving news away free online is “unsustainable” and has sought papers that publish in cities and towns with a “sense of community.

We have never seen this need for a sense of community as we do know because community creates trust.  As the world has expanded on big is better, the public has lost trust.  We no longer trust big business, big government, big hospitals, big banks, etc.  Yet publications offer nothing if they do not have the reader’s trust.  Internet publishing on the big scale has reduced trust.  Anyone can say anything on the internet and thus internet information is highly suspect.  Publishers who use a small niche to create trust have an advantage.

To begin this introduction let me add one more point and outline the value of what I am about to offer.  A SNAP publication may eventually require $5,000, $10,000 or even $15,000 in start up costs but can make up to $11,835 a month… or more.  That’s value… plain and simple.

Join The International Club for all of 2018 NOW.  Learn how to wrote and publish.  Save $418.78.

Club members start by receiving seven workshops and courses on how to earn everywhere with home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • The course “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Self Publish”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”
  • The course “International Business Made EZ”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”

Club members also learn ways to be be healthier and have more energy.   I have created three natural health reports about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Recent news about Social Security, pensions and health care shows that the US government has excessive debt today and that we as individuals need tactics to make sure, when governments, pensions and insurers weasel out of their promises, that we can take care of ourselves.

One big broken promise is Social Security and Medicare.  The most recent Social Security trustee report shows that the programs will begin to spend more than they earn within just three or four years.   The Medicare hospital-insurance trust fund, could use all its reserves by 2028.  They face insolvency over the next 20 years because Social Security runs totally out of money by 2034.

My three natural health reports help learn ways to be happier, healthier and avoid much of the Western disease management (aka healthcare) expense.

Each report is available for $19.95.  However you’ll receive all three FREE as club member and save $59.85.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad. The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of numerous Model Portfolios, called Pifolio.

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

There are no secrets about this portfolio except that these mathematicians ignore the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $299.

There are two more reports I’ll send about the most exciting opportunities I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become an International Club member you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the past two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2019” updated in late 2018.   The report explained the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The price of silver may offer special value later in 2019, but the price of platinum is special now.   So I want to send you the report “Platinum Dip 2019”.

Save $418.78… when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program including SNAP”.  Free.

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#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report.  Free.

#7: Plus updates and other report I release in the year ahead.

These reports, courses and programs would cost $767.78 so the 2018 membership saves $418.78.

The International Club membership is $499. 

To encourage our first 100 members for 2018 to join quickly so we are currently accepting discounted membership at $349. 

Save $418.78.  Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons through the rest of 2018 and all of 2019 at no additional fee.

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Keppler Developed Market Good Value Analysis – Spring 2015

Here is the Keppler Developed Market Good Value Analysis – Spring 2015. 

Trust in value.  Through ups and down, thick and thin, good times and bad, bulls and bears, expansions, recessions and depressions think long term value.  Most of the great wealth has been accumulated by buying good long term value during corrections created by short term trends.

This is why once a quarter we review all developed multi currency equity markets through the Keppler Asset Management’s Global Market Value analysis.  If you are a new reader you can learn more about Keppler Asst Management by clicking here.  Keppler Asset Management

Keppler’s Recent Developments & Outlook April 20, 2015

Global equity prices finished yet another quarter at new highs, making it the 14th consecutive positive quarter in local currencies since September 2011.

The MSCI World Total Return Index advanced 4.9 % in local currencies, 2.3 % in US dollars and 15.3 % in Euros.

The MSCI World Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) now stands at LC 3,556, $ 4,650 and € 2,297, respectively.

The Euro accelerated its recent downtrend, dropping 11.2 % versus the US dollar in the first quarter 2015 and now stands at 1.0740 USD/EUR, down 22.1 % compared to its level of 1.3780 at the end of 2013.

All twenty-three markets included in the MSCI World Index advanced last quarter. Denmark (+30.9 %), Germany (+22.0 %) and Portugal (+20.9 %) were the best performing developed markets last quarter. The United States (+1.2 %), Singapore (+1.5 %), New Zealand and Switzerland (both up 2.4 %) performed worst.

In the last fifteen months, twenty-one markets included in the MSCI Developed Markets universe were up and two markets declined.

The best performing markets since the end of 2013 were Denmark (+58.0 %), Israel (+53.2 %) and Belgium (+41.5 %).

Portugal (-15.0 %), Austria (-7.1 %) and the United Kingdom (+4.5 %) performed worst in the last fifteen months. Performance is in local currencies, unless mentioned otherwise.

The Top Value Model Portfolio, based on the Top Value Strategy using national MSCI country indices as hypothetical investment vehicles, finished the first quarter 2015 up 11.8 % in local currencies, +4.3 % in the US dollar and  +17.5 % in Euro., outperforming the benchmark by between 2.0 and 6.9 percentage points — depending on the currency in which the performance is measured.

In the last fifteen months, the Top Value Model Portfolio gained 13.5 % in local currencies, lost 4.7 % in US dollars and gained 22.2 % in Euros, underperforming the benchmark by between 1.6 and 15.5 percentage points, depending on the currency.

There were no changes in our country ratings last quarter.

The Top Value Model Portfolio currently holds ten “Buy”-rated markets — Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom — at equal weights. According to our analyses, an equally-weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.


Click on image to enlarge.

The table above shows how the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI World Index, the Keppler Asset Management (KAM) Equally-Weighted World Index, the MSCI Europe Index and the MSCI US Index at the end of March 2015, based on selected variables (current numbers for book value, 12-month trailing numbers for the other variables — no forecasts).  In addition, we show the MSCI World Index at its All-Time High Valuation at the end of the last millennium and its All-Time Low Valuation at the end of 1974.

The chart below shows the entire real-time forecasting history of Keppler Asset Management Inc. for the KAM Equally-Weighted World Index, starting at the end of 1993.  Our numbers are based on relationships between price and value over the previous 15 years.


The chart includes two remarkable episodes: the five-year period (1997-2001) during which the KAM Equally-Weighted World Index stayed above the upper forecast band, and the period starting in October 2008, when it last fell below the lower forecast band, where it has stayed through April 2014 (5 years and 7 months). Ever since, the Index has stayed above the lower forecast band and now stands at 10,257 Local Currencies — very close to the 10,837 projected four years ago.

Our implicit three-to-five-year projection indicates that the KAM Equally-Weighted World Index is expected to rise to 13,412 from its current level of 10,257.

This corresponds to a compound annual total return estimate 6.9 % in local currencies — down from 9.3 % last quarter.

The upper-band estimate of 16,094 by March 31, 2019 implies a compound annual total return of 11.9 % (down from 14.4 % three months ago), while the lower-band estimate of 10,729 corresponds to a compound annual total return of 1.1 % (down from 3.3 % three months ago).  Given the current low interest and inflation environment, even this lower estimate sounds appealing given the current low- interest environment.

Annual growth rates of key fundamentals have held up pretty well.  Annual book value growth (March 2015 over March 2014) for the KAM Equally-Weighted World Index now stands at 11.0 % (previous quarter: +11.4 %). Cash flow is up 10.4 % over the last twelve months (previous quarter: +12.4 %). Annual earnings growth has accelerated to 10.2 % from 5.4 % at the end of 2014. And finally, dividends for the KAM Equally-Weighted World Index grew 11.8 % in the last twelve months as compared to the annual dividend growth of 9.8 % as of the end of December 2014. Numbers are in local currencies.

The Ultimate Investing Secret

The ultimate investing secret is the simple fact that investment opportunities come and go in cycles.  

Because we have been watching the trends for decades, we spot many distortions  we saw decades ago as they create repeat opportunities.  For example, our 1986 report “The Silver Dip” showed readers how to turn $250 into over $45,000 in a year.   When we spotted the same repeat distortion in silver’s price in 2015, we issued our report “Silver Dip 2015”.   Those who acted on the report made as much as 200% in 2016.

There is another phenomenal distortion that has been building for a number of years.   Here is how I (and you can as well) am cashing in on this trend.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.

Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Now I see those circumstances headed our way again.

The Dow Jones Industrial recently soared past 20,000 and reached an all time high.   So why aren’t average investors all rich?   There are several answers.  First, even though the Dow has peaked, for the last 17 years the US stock market has been in a bear trend.  You’ll see why in a moment.  Another reason why the investors have not done so well is because of currency loss.

One final reason why profits have not been so good.  Someone, probably someone you trust, has been stealing from you.

One of the biggest obstacles in profiting from the upcoming circumstances has been and remains the financial system.  The reality is that banks and brokers have been structuring investments that are sure to lose.  They sell you on these investments and then another division of the very same bank (or broker) that recommended the investment, bets against you.   The bank knows that the investment is toxic.  To add insult to injury, many of these same institutions cheat you on the way in and the way out (when you buy and sell a share) of the bad investment.  Most brokers and bankers are interested in your money making them rich, not in helping increase your wealth.

Three Patterns Create 50% profits.

Despite the predators on Wall Street who are waiting to take big gouges out of your savings and wealth, equities are still the best place to invest for the long term.  This chart from the 24 page Keppler Asset Management Asset Allocation Review shows that over the past 80+ years equities have dramatically outperformed other types of investments.


Click on image to enlarge.

Good investments require a relentless search for value.   Your investments have to be good enough to reap an outstanding profit even after the parasites siphon off their part.

To take advantage of the once every 17 year circumstances, I chose to track Keppler Asset Management who continually researches developed and emerging markets globally.  Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisors.  Keppler compares the value of each share in each market based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  From this study of monumental amounts of data Keppler develops a Good Value Stock Market Strategies.  The analysis is based on long term, rational, mathematical facts and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

From Keppler I learned that market timing is not the way to get these high profits.  Another graphic from the Keppler Asset Allocation Review explains why.


Click on image to enlarge.

A dollar invested 88 years ago in Treasury bills rose to $20.58.  The same dollar invested in U.S. stocks over the 88 years grew to be was worth $4,677, UNLESS you missed the best 43 months.  Literally all of the the Dow’s growth in 1,056 months came in 43 of those months.   Your odds have been one in 24, better than roulette perhaps, but not good enough.  Plus even after these odds, the predators are going to take their cut.  You have to ask, “Am I that good at timing?”

The better alternative to timing is to invest in long term indexing based on value.  Long term strategic investing in market indices reduces the amount of trading.  Low trading activity is important because trades are where investors are most vulnerable to predatory tactics.

A part of the long term strategic trading is to invest in low fee diversified Country Index ETFs.  This simplifies the search for value because it focuses research into lumps.

A comparison of US versus German stock market indexes gives an example of lump research and you can create good value, low cost, diversified portfolios that offer maximum potential for profit as they reduce risk.

Keppler’s research shows that Germany’s stock market is a good value market.  Keppler lumps all the shares (or at least 85% of the shares) into the calculations.  There is no attempt to select any one specific share.  Keppler’s research shows that the US stock market index (a lump of about 85% of all the US shares) is now a poor value.

Germany has the world’s fourth largest economy.  The country is the third largest exporter in the world and has recorded some of the highest trade surplus in the world making it the biggest capital exporter globally.  Yet German shares have been overlooked.  German share prices are good value.

For example, recently the German Stock Market had a relative price to book value ratio of  .78,  a relative price earnings ratio of  0.87 and a relative dividend yield of 1.12.  The US Stock Market has a much higher relative price to book value ratio of 1.29, a relative price earnings ratio of 1.07 and a relative dividend yield of 0.81.  German shares cost much less, compared to the values and earnings.  German shares pay much higher dividends as well.

Keppler predicts that the US Stock Market (which is ranked as a sell market by Keppler) will have an annual index gain for the next five years of  3.1% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 21.7%.  The same calculations for the German Market predicts an average annual index gain over the next five years of 7.5% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 47.3%.

Which would you rather buy,  a 47.3% return sold for 78 cents on the dollar or a 21.7% return sold for $1.29 on the dollar?

You can forget about any specific share in the US or Germany and invest into an index (in this case the Morgan Stanley Capital Index) which represents about 85% of all the shares traded on the exchange.

You can invest in ETFs that passively invest in all the shares of the index in stock markets that offer good value.  iShares investment company for example has  an ETF that invests in 85% of the shares traded on Wall Street.


This ETF is called the iShares USA (symbol EUSA) and in this example rose from $22.91 to $43.40 or 89% in the past five years.

iShares also offers an ETF that invests in about 85% of the stocks listed on the German Stock Exchange (Symbol EWG).  EWG rose  from $19.70 to $28.13  or 42% in the past five years.


Keppler’s lump research shows that Germany is a good value market.   One simple (even very small) investment in iShares Germany MSCI Index ETF gives you a portfolio  of almost all the shares traded on Germany’s largest stock exchange in Frankfurt.  This ETF is a share traded on the New York Stock Exchange.  The ETF invests in 85% of the shares in Germany.  This ETF is a passive fund that does not try to outperform the growth of the German Stock Market.  The managers simply track the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index.  The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the German Index which is composed of the stocks of 54 different German companies and covers about 85% of all the German equities.  Germany’s ten largest companies compose about 60% of the index.  These ten companies are:  BAYER (Health Care) composes 9.91% of the index – SIEMENS (Industrials) 7.89% – DAIMLER (Consumer Discretionary) 7.04% – BASF (Materials)  6.81% – ALLIANZ (Financials) 6.65% – SAP STAMM (Info Tech) 5.69% – DEUTSCHE TELEKOM (Telecom Srvcs) 4.46% – DEUTSCHE BANK NAMEN  (Financials) 3.66%  – VOLKSWAGEN VORZUG (Consumer Discretionary) 3.18% – BMW STAM (Consumer Discretionary)  3.15%.

You lump your research.  You lump your investment.  This makes it easy to capture the powerful economic circumstances that are unfolding now.

Just investing in Germany is not enough.  There are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.   Plus there are 11 good value emerging markets.  With even a couple of thousand dollars you can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

Investing in many stock markets through ETFs gives you opportunity in the second pattern of the falling US dollar.  Preserving the purchasing power of your savings and wealth requires currency diversification.

The strength of the US dollar over recent years is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   In 1980, the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern has been growing, is seriously overdue and could create up to 50% extra profit if you start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

For example because of fears about the euro, EWG, the German ETF dropped 9 percent in 12 months.  These declines are created by currency concerns.  When the euro regains strength, the shares have the potential to appreciate even more.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but includes links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hot the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

I look forward to the next 17 years and sharing how to have more than enough money for the rest of your life.



Invest in Fear

Invest in fear when the thundering herd stampedes.

There has been a great deal of stock market synchronicity this year.  Three charts tell the tale.  This is the S&P 500 index performance.


S&P Index performance from Google Finance. Click on photo to enlarge. See link to entire chart below

The Morgan Stanley Capital Index (MSCI) World Index has moved in a very similar way.

The MSCI World is a stock market index of over 6,000  world stocks maintained by MSCI Inc.  This is a common benchmark for ‘world’ or ‘global’ stock funds but does not include emerging markets.


The MSCI Emerging Market Index is moving downwards short term as well.


The MSCI Emerging Markets Index measures 21 emerging market indices: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey.

When there is this much correlation… especially on the downside… extra value is created somewhere amidst the fall.

A note from a reader about the emergence of  the next major 15 year bull cycle shows how to use fear and long term cycles to cash in one extra value created by short term fear.

The reader wrote in response to an article at this site that predicts we are at the darkest hour near the beginning of the next major boom and said:   Hi Gary  – have you taken into account that the baby boomer generation is now taking more money out for retirement than they have been putting in while they were working and this trend will continue until 2020 when there will be more people putting money into savings for retirement during the working years and the bull market should resume.   The baby boomers were responsible for the great bull markets that came before but now are taking the money out for retirement. thanks.

Well, this could be a misunderstanding of money.  We need to remember the fact that money is always somewhere.   Money in the bank is not sitting in piles of unused cash.  Money is a circular social agreement and the essence of money is freedom of flow.  Freedom of flow is good.  Restriction of flow is bad.  Balanced flow is best.

If boomers put money into savings… then that money is redirected into businesses.  This can have an upwards impact on stock markets that creates bad value.  However if boomers (or any significant market sector) put all their money into savings and do not spend… then businesses will feel the pinch.  They cannot repay their loans nor earn profits which create downward  pressures on shares.

What boomers do is only one very small part of how stock markets around the world react.    This can certainly have an impact… but with balance… and in an ideal world, boomers will now be spending more of their savings to employ younger generations who will increase their savings with part of their earnings.

This is one small force in an increasingly complex global economic formula of up and down pressures.

This will have some middle of the road influence but what is more important to getting good profits are the really short term distortions that create long term value.

The major 15 year cycle is one dependable long term indicator… though it has fluctuated by three or four years.

This major trend combined with the very short term fear cycles can be used to spot times when values are enhanced.

When fear is correlated in markets, as it is now… good values are easier to find.

When all the indicators are correlated… down… this is a good indication that fear permeates the market.

These are good times to get value because markets overreact when fear dominates.   The stampede reaction has proven itself as the most powerful force in herds again and again.  Markets fall faster than they rise.  Fear predominates greed… the other driving force is the other emotion that drives most investors.  Hopefully readers of this site invest with a purpose instead and they look at the deeper reality of value.

Our friends at Jyske Global Asset Management agree about fear in the market and wrote in their November 16, 2012 Market Update.

Mounting fear is dominating
This week the sentiment turned sour. The risk willingness in the global markets has become more hesitant due to the mounting numbers of risk elements that require eminent action from the global policymakers. An overall lack of faith in global leaders ability to problem-solve have reduce the appetite for risk.
This week it came to a military confrontation between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Oil prices reacted immediately on concern that the Middle East tension would disrupt supplies.
In Europe, the eurozone GDP data for the third quarter was released on Thursday confirming that the common currency region now officially is in recession. Just a few hours up to the GDP release, optimism spurred as better than expected GDP numbers out of Germany and France sparked hopes that the expected eurozone recession could be avoided. However, the positive numbers from Germany and France only reduced the rate of the decline. The euroarea economy is expected to contract by 0.6% in 2012 as a whole.
Further to Europe, labor unions in Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy and France this week staged strikes against the eurozone’s demanding austerity policy, as unemployment in both Greece and Spain has reached above 25%. Greece’s economic downturn, now in its 5th year, has been exacerbated by the austerity demands imposed by the European union and the International Monetary Fund. Wednesday, the GDP data out of Greece revealed a deepening recession, as the economy contracted at a faster pace than prior quarter by 7.2% compared to 3rd quarter last year.     
In the US, the market participants worry about the policymakers’ inability to find a solution to the Fiscal Cliff in time before year end. If a solution is not found, then automatic spending cuts take effect from fiscal year 2013 through fiscal year 2021.

What to Do

Here are three ways to take advantage of fear.

#1: Use an investment manager abroad. Merri and I use Jyske.

US Investors with $100,000 or more can use Jyske Global Asset management to invest and if they choose leverage their investments (non leveraged investors require $200,000 minimum).  JGAM will create and manage a portfolio of global shares, bonds, cash and alternatives… leveraged or not.

Investors with $500,000 or more can build and manage their own portfolio if they prefer with JGAM’s advice.

Learn more from JGAM by contacting Sr. Vice President Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Non US readers should contact Jyske’s René Mathys at mathys@jbpb.dk

#2: Build your own global value portfolio using US brokers who can buy global investments.

Michael McDonald at Aegis Investments can explain more. Contact him at mmcdonald@aegiscap.com

#3: The simplest approach is to invest in ETFs that invests in the MSCI World Index or the MSCI Emerging Market Index.

One such ETF is iShares MSCI World (symbol URTH)

This ETF replicates the MSCI World Index. The index measures the performance of equity securities in the top 85% of equity market capitalization and the ETF invests in nearly 6,000 shares globally.

If you prefer Emerging Markets, take a look at the iShares MSCI Emerging Markst ETF (symbol EEM).  This ETF invests at least 90% of assets in the securities of the MSCI Emerging Markets index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets.


Geographical distribution of holdings in EEM as of November 16, 2012.

Learn more about ETFs from Morgan Hatfield at Ruggie Wealth at mhatfield@ruggiewealth.com

There are plenty of short term hitches in the world’s economic giddyup to create fear right now.  For those who can hold on through the down times and have the patience and discipline to wait, this is a good time to find value now.

Learn how to make multi currency investments… how and when.


S&P Index chart at Google.com

MCSI World Index at Bloomberg.com

MSCI Emerging Markets Index at Bloomberg.com

The Best Investment

The best investment you can make is in yourself… in your intelligence. The second best is in value.

Learn how to “Get Smarter” at our Super Thinking + Spanish course. We have two places left in January. See more here.

Recently a reader asked me if I had read the latest edition of an investment newsletter produced by a well known economist.

My reply: Someone does send this to me but I never read this or any other newsletters. If I do I’ll find one really good evidence that shows why everything will go up and another why it’ll all go down and a final one that will say it will all stay the same.

I stick instead to the data flow I have developed over the past 40 years and consume the raw data thus coming to my own conclusions.   Then we try to to focus on how to helping ourselves and readers become more intelligent so they can prosper no matter which way the wind blows.

With just a quick glance it appears that this guy is looking at pretty much the same data I do and write about often.  His focus is on long term bull – bear trends and value.
Here is the most recent bull – bear chart I have sent readers.


The problem with depending too much on these charts is that small shifts in reference points leads to greatly different conclusions.

One can predict (and manage investments) of very small moves of equity and currency valuations in the very short term.  This is a massive industry… speculating on short tem volatility.  One can predict very long term trends.

What one cannot do is zero in on is the price of a currency, equity of commodity  in any one particular day, month or year.

One cannot depend on upticks in our investments always nicely coinciding with our financial needs.

There is little doubt that there have been major bull and bear cycles of about 15 years up and 15 years down since 1900 or even earlier.  The last bear cycle started quite clearly in 2000 and was less severe (probably  due to government tinkering) in its early stages than preceding bears.  Hence the more severe downturn now.

Previous bears last nine years (1906 to 1915) 13 years (1929 to 1942) 16 years (1966 to 1982).

Having said this, our research suggests the bear will end in 2013 to 2014…. but if each bear is lasting longer and this trend continues, we could see the bear going to 2018 before the next big upwards move.

The keys as I have written often could be war… the huge conflict or an effort on mankind that creates new waves of technology. The boom has always been fueled by this technology being shifted from military to domestic use… steam power… internal combustion power… jet power… internet, etc.

Watch for this struggle and the new technology.  They will be really important early indicators of the next bull indicator.

One of my key sources of analysis is Keppler Asset Management.

Once a quarter we look at a major and emerging equity market value analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Keppler’s January issue will arrive shortly and we’ll be reviewing it at this site.

In the meantime, we also track the investment breakdown of the State Street Major and Emerging Market Global Advantage Funds because Keppler is adviser to these funds.

This review gives us a hint about good value shares in the good value markets.

The investment objective of the major market fund is to beat the Morgan Stanley Capital World Total Return Index and is described as described by State Street here.


The emerging market fund has a similar objective but with an emerging market index.


The performance of these funds shows how following value has beat the market long term.

Major Market


Emerging Market


This approch has proven itself to outperform the average.


Another of our data sources is the breakdown of these funds. If they outperform the market long term, it makes sense to understand where they are diversified.

Here is the latest major market fund allocation breakdown.


State Street Global Advantage Emerging Market Fund reveiw.


One simple way for non Americans to diversify in global stocks is to simply invest in this fund.


The fund is not registered for sale to US investors but we Yanks can learn where we may want to diversify by looking at where the fund invests.

One way Americans can duplicate global diversification of this nature is with Jyske Global Asset Management. Get details from Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com . Non Americans should write Rene Mathys mathys@jbpb.dk

Another simple approach to finding global value is the MSCI EAFE Value ETF (symbol EFV).

This fund seeks investment results that correspond to the MSCI EAFE® Value Index and invests at least 90% of its assets in the securities of the index or in depositary receipts representing securities in the index.

The MSCI EAFE® Value Index  is composed of about 50% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the MSCI EAFE® Index… half that are classified by MSCI as most representing the value style.

Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. (MSCI) is a leading provider of global indices and benchmark related products and services to investors worldwide.

The MSCI EAFE Index covers Europe, Australasia, Far East and is market capitalization index that measures the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 22 developed market country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

Investing in EAFE is like investing in a spread of shares that compass all 22 indices.

MSCI then refines the indices into value and growth that cover the full range of MSCI Developed, Emerging and All Country Indices across large, mid and small cap size segmentations. They also cover large and mid cap size segments for the MSCI Frontier Markets Indices. The indices are constructed using an approach that provides a precise definition of style using eight historical and forward-looking fundamental data points for every security. Each security is placed into either the Value or Growth Indices, or may be partially allocated to both (with no double counting). The objective of this index design is to divide constituents of an underlying MSCI Equity Index into respective value and growth indices, each targeting 50% of the free float adjusted market capitalization of the underlying market index.

Investing in the MSCI EAFE® Value Index is like investing in half of the shares in these 22 indices that are considered good value by MSCI.

This chart from finance.yahoo.com shows how the fund has fared since inception. Value investments generally make most of their profit during recoveries and this chart confirms this fact.

EFV chart

Keppler’s value analysis suggests that shares are still historically undervalued and that over the next three years would rise 19.2% to stay in line with long term patterns.


However a global bond fund may have been a better way to store wealth in the last three decades.

Multi Currency portfolio subscribers can see a full report why bonds have been better for the past 3o years at their password protected site here.

See how to get a multi currency portfolio password here.


Join us at our February International Investment & Business Seminar where we focus on how to find investing value… buy better bonds and “Get Smarter” in investing and business.