Tag Archive | "Moody’s"

30 Days from Economic Disaster


Could we be 30 days from economic disaster?

real estate etf

See below how this fund (chart shown at business.yahoo.com ) and four other shares can help survive another economic flop.

Moody’s has threatened to downgrade the US credit rating… they’ll review this in July… in just 30 days. If the downgrade comes, expect an economic crash… one this site has been predicting based on economic history and our 40 years of research on 15 year cycles.  The study suggests that the global economy will see one more correction… before the next even stronger recovery.

Those who are prepared to ride though the storm, can actually gain from this downturn.   Economic crunches create opportunity for brighter times after.

Last Saturday’s message said: The research on global economics suggests that we have one more terrible crash ahead in the current 15 year bear cycle.   This, hopefully, will be the end of a 15 year bear cycle that started in 1998.

Even though good times are ahead, this next crash cannot be ignored.  The legend in my family for example is that my grandfather’s brother was the last British solider killed in WWI. He was shot in some useless exercise.   My grandfather was so outraged that he left the UK and immigrated to the USA.

In other words, even if the war is almost over...  even if only one more bullet is going to be fired…  even if this long bear cycle is almost through… we have to be sure we are not ruined by that last round.

Excerpts from a June 2, 2011 New York Times article “Moody’s Warns of Downgrade for U.S. Credit” by Jackie Calmes and Carl  Hulse say:  WASHINGTON — Moody’s Investors Service warned Thursday that it might downgrade the United States government’s sterling credit rating if Congress did not increase the nation’s debt limit “in coming weeks,” putting a spur to the sputtering talks between party leaders and the White House on a plan to restore fiscal stability.

The warning, from one of the agencies whose assessments of creditworthiness help determine interest rates, amounted to a stern reminder from Wall Street to Washington that global financial markets are watching the budget battle closely and that a standoff or brinkmanship could have economic consequences.

Both sides seized on Moody’s statement to reinforce their bargaining positions, with Republicans demanding that President Obama get more serious about deep spending cuts and Democrats saying that Republicans are risking a financial crisis in pursuit of an ideological agenda.

Moody’s said a review of the credit rating was “likely” in July, given that “the risk of continuing stalemate has grown.” Its warning followed a similar one from another major ratings firm six weeks ago, and it came as the administration met Thursday with both House Republicans and Democrats in search of a deal.

We hope that America’s politicians will sort the problems out and increase the debt limit.  In fact many probably depend on it.

First, let’s remember that adding to the credit limit does not solve the problem… just the most immediate concern.  I recall my first experiences with borrowing.   I had just married at the ripe age of 19 and my father-in-law suggested we buy a new TV to start building our credit.   We hustled one Sunday morning to a TV store in the Lents district of Portland. The salesman closed hard reminding me that if I signed now, they would deliver that day and we could watch Bonanza that night in color!   We left the proud owners of a Muntz color TV with record player… including a stack of free 33 LPs.   Then came the hospital bill (our daughter). Then came new furniture and then came the new car… a 1966 Tempest Le Mans Sprint.

I was working at a gas station making $1.75 an hour and still going to college… so there were tuition bills as well.  Then came the “past due”  notices, etc. (Nightmare horrors!)

I squirmed and wiggled trying to figure out how to get out from underneath this debt and took the easy way out. I recall going to Beaver Finance on SE Mcloughlin Drive and getting what they called a “Billpayers Loan”… a loan that paid off my bills and created one payment for $33 a month.    This did not solve my financial problem… if I continued to borrow more.  This did not eliminate the debt. This did not eliminate the bad spending habits.  This just increased my borrowing costs and cost of living.  I regret to say that I had not learned the lesson yet and had to beat myself up with debt for many years more before I realized what a life sapper borrowing to consume can be.

This is where the US now stands… burdened by a huge debt that will take a monumental effort to repay and yet still overspending.   The lenders are restless and the global economic community watching.

Probably at the last moment… the politicians will agree to a debt increase… the short term easy way out.

However beware.  Our research suggests that this cycle is similar to that of the late 1930s so I am rereading “The Second World War”  a six-volume history of the period from the end of the First World War to July 1945, written by Winston Churchill.

Churchill points out how easy it would have been for Western leaders to prevent WWII, after WWI, but again and again and again their political weakness and the public’s desires to avoid taking tough measures allowed conditions to evolve to such a serious state that millions of lives had to be lost to sort the mess out.

This seems a good analogy to the handling of current global economic affairs.  Everyone wants prosperity so badly that politicians continually take the easy way out rather than face the harsh issues of debt, aging population, climactic and technological shifts.

If this is correct, then the question is “When will the current global economic equivalent to the invasion of Poland take place?”

Even if  we are 30 days from the next crunch weighing upon us, what can we do?

At our upcoming International Investing and Business Seminar we’ll look at many business ideas to earn added income (always good in tough times) plus three levels of globally diversified portfolios… small ($25,000) medium ($100,000) and large (over $1,000,000).

For example here are some of the small portfolio shares.  We’ll look at over a dozen shares that can fit in the porfolio but here is an example of five.

Silver Wheaton (Investment in Silver – NYSE- SLW).

Wisdom Tree Emerging Market Local Debt (NYSEArca – ELD)

PowerShares Global Water Portfolio ETF (NYSEArca – PIO)

Third Avenue Real Estate Value Investor (Global Real eEstate – NASDAQ – TVRVX)

WisdomTree Commodity Currency ETF (NYSE – CCX).

For example this fund would helped protect against a falling dollar and loss of pruchsing power. This is a new fund launched September last year and is a first for the ETF industry. The ETF tracks a basket of eight currencies of emerging as well as developed commodity-producing economies:the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone, New Zealand dollar, Brazilian real, Chilean peso, Russian ruble and South African rand.

We’ll look at each of these shares and many more in detail at the seminar.

If yet another downwave is headed our way, let’s gain from it rather than see our purchasing power destroyed.

Gary

Brazil Multi Currency Opportunity


See how my multi currency course subscribers have been able to gain up to 50% in Brazil during 2009.

Many readers at this site know me best as Mr. Ecuador.  However recently some of our subscribers have enjoyed the biggest profits as multi currency investors in Brazil.

Though Merri and I have been investing, living and working in Ecuador for over a dozen years now, our greatest expertise is as multi currency investors as we are in our 41st year.

See below how multi currency investing brought us to Ecuador and how your interest in Ecuador can now bring you a free subscription to our multi currency course as I present a survivors guide to currency and market turmoil.

Those interested in Ecuador do not have to change currencies when they travel here because Ecuador’s currency is the US dollar.

This means they need to learn how to make your money go up as the US dollar and stock markets go up and down…

The US dollar has fallen… badly against major currencies like the yen, euro and Swiss franc for 37 years.  You can see this long term, steady decline of the US dollar in this chart from Grandfather.com.

multi-currency-debt

One reason for this fall is the growing debt in the USA.

Now this debt is even worse. Here is a picture from USA Today that shows how the US public debt  has just grown 12%.

ecuador-tickets

Even minor currencies such as the Colombian peso, and Brazilian real have risen steadily versus the US dollar… 25%, 50% since the early 2000s and more.

Until.. in 2008, the greenback suddenly zoomed up… as stock markets collapsed around the world. Now the dollar is falling again.

Sideways motion like this destroys most investors.

Yet there is a way to earn even in these worst times…by learning how to spot value…that turns turmoil and currency shifts into profit.

This is not just a problem for Americans either. The dollar’s downfall affects currencies all over the world and creates global economic turmoil. For the modern economy to operate in its current fashion some reserve currency is required.

Yet what currency would you choose…the Chinese yuan…the euro…gold, oil? Would you trust your life savings to speculate on that?

Of three things we can be sure.

First, The US dollar will fall more…much more.

Second, there will be confusion. Many…in fact most uninformed investors will lose…a lot.

Third there will be inflation…worldwide due to the excessive spending in the current global financial bailout.

Smart investors who know how to spot value in multi currency portfolios at some of the world’s safest banks have already earned 57%…120% …263% so even with the doom and gloom, they are still ahead.

More important these same investors have learned how to survive through turmoil.

My name is Gary Scott. I have been writing and publishing information about the falling greenback and how to earn from it though international investing for over forty years (since May 1968 to be exact).

Fortunately I stumbled across multi currency investing at an early stage and wrote a book about this clear back in the 1970s when the US dollar was first beginning to erode.

Since that time my books and reports have helped hundreds of thousands of investors find hot areas of value in every decade.

In the 1970s we helped our readers  find investments in gold & silver as well as investments  in the currencies of Japan, Germany, Switzerland, England, Australia and Hong Kong.

In the 1980s, the Tigers, Taiwan, Singapore Malaysia and South Korea, & Turkey were the places where our readers gained value.

The 1990s saw South America (which led me to Ecuador) as the place to invest.

The early 2000s offered great value in China, India and Eastern Europe.

We have helped readers find good value real estate throughout this time, first in Hong Kong, then London, Switzerland,  Isle of Man, Dominican Republic and now Ecuador as well as in Small Town USA.

We have also helped readers bet against the US dollar throughout these decades which as the chart above shows has worked well.

Finally in the early 200os we began helping readers find good value green investments.

I would like to offer you a valuable real time emailed course that teaches how to invest in multi currency portfolios plus how to sometimes use leverage in these portfolios to create extra profits.

Sleepy Safe Portfolios Can Earn Over 100% Per Year

Multi currency investing does not require any fast trading techniques.  Multi currency portfolios are normally slow and sleepy investments…not currency contracts or futures speculations.  Most multi currency positions are aimed with a five year horizon…pretty sleepy compared to people who trade currencies (an entirely different and far riskier technique).  For most of us, slow and sleepy means SAFE!

Yet multi currency portfolios can be really profitable as well.

How sleepy and how safe?

Let’s look first at sleepy.

In 2006 we created an Asian multi currency portfolio consisting of just five award winning mutual funds.

We did not touch the entire portfolio for an entire year. Then after one year we made just five changes…dropping two mutual funds and adding three other mutual funds. Then we did not make another single change. That’s pretty sleepy, choosing a handful of mutual funds and making only five changes in two years.

How safe?

The portfolio was chosen with the help of one of the world’s safest banks and the mutual funds were held at that bank at all times.

Okay. Here is the big question. How profitable?

In the first year (2006) this portfolio rose 114.16%. Then we made the five changes mentioned (two funds dropped and three added). In 2007 this portfolio rose 122.62%. 2008 was a disaster year which we will look at in a moment.  But when your portfolio is over 200% in two years, it takes a lot of disaster to lose.

Suppose we get more specific.

That safe bank is a Danish bank. That’s good because in recent years Denmark has been rated by Standard & Poor’s as one of the safest country in the world in which to bank

The bank is Jyske Bank…well established with a history of over 100 years. Jyske is Denmark ’s second largest bank, with 450,000 clients in Denmark and over 30,000 abroad.

Jyske Bank has over 23 billion euros in assets and also happens to be one of the leading currency traders in the world. The Danes have always been big currency traders because as a small naval country surrounded by England, Sweden, Finland, Russia, Germany, Norway and other countries…they have always had to deal in many currencies.

This historically gained expertise means that unlike most banks (that trade only eight hours a day) Jyske maintains a 24 hour global currency and commodity dealer service. Many other large banks use Jyske to handle their off hour currency positions. This means that Jyske is huge when it comes to multi currency activity. In fact their turnover reaches $50 billion dollars a day.

Let’s address this issue of safety in more detail. Normally this is a pretty moot point. Right now everyone is concerned. Is a bank safe or not? I like Jyske from a bank safety point of view because there are three bank safety points, from the top down.

Bank Safety Point #1: A recent Yahoo Canada article shows a survey by the World Economic Forum listed five safest countries in which to bank.

Canada
Sweden
Luxembourg
Australia
Denmark

So Denmark is a safe place to bank. Now let’s look at Jyske Bank’s safety rating.

Bank Safety Point #2: Jyske Bank is Denmark’s second largest bank.
On October 10 2008, Moody’s affirmed Jyske Bank’s long-term Aa2 rating stable rating. This decision came despite the deteriorated economic prospects in Denmark, particularly in respect of the property market.

Bank Safety Point #3: Also on Friday 10 October 2008, the Danish Parliament passed a bill that secured all deposits and unsecured claims against losses in Danish financial institutions.
The rating of the Kingdom of Denmark is Aaa/AAA with Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s respectively.

That’s safe!

I happen to know Jyske Bank because I began using them (as my bank) over 20 years ago. They are one of the few banks that offers a special multi currency portfolio service for investors from almost anywhere in the world.

I was one of the first writers and publishers to begin writing about multi currency investing. Jyske bank was one of the first banks to offer a multi currency portfolio service…and they were my bank.

Not surprising we got together and have created a strategic alliance that can help you learn how to create multi currency portfolios that suit you.

My multi currency course helps readers learn how to find good value and develop multi currency portfolios that suit their specific circumstances.

Before I explain how you can use this course, let’s look at both the up and down side of these high performing portfolios?

The course provides two levels of education. Part one gives readers an extensive beginner’s guide to developing multi currency portfolios.

Part two is unusual and neat.  Part two educates in real time. We create multi currency portfolios and track them real time.  The education comes from dissecting and discussing the portfolio results.  This is a totally novel way to learn…real time from real portfolios created by some of the best investment managers in the world as these portfolios rise or fall in the market place…in the here and now.

Jyske Bank assists by providing all the portfolio details.   Our symbiotic relationship allows me to combine my experience with this bank’s incredible knowledge, real time capability and expertise so course subscribers can learn in a most practical way from some of the greatest multi currency experts in the world.

Here is our educational performance over the past few years.

We created five portfolios for educational purposes on November 1, 2005. One of the five multi currency portfolios was the Asian Emerging Multi Currency Portfolio. The portfolio started with a $100,000 investment and a $200,000 loan in Japanese yen (more on the loans in a moment).

This gave us $300,000 to invest in this portfolio.

Amount

Currency

Investment

75,000

Rupee

Jyske Invest Indian Equity Mutual Fund

75,000

Yuan

Jyske Invest Chinese Equity Mutual Fund

75,000

Yen

Jyske Invest Japanese Equity Mutual Fund

75,000

Multiple

Jyske Invest Emerging Market Bond Fund

Investments Total Value 300,000.00

Invested $100,000

Loan $200,000 100.00% JPY at 1.63%

Loan cost for one year $3,260.

This portfolio diversified into bonds and equities throughout Asia ..very multi currency.

Chinese yuan, Indian rupee, Japanese yen and more.

Twelve months later the portfolio was worth $417,420. Paying off the loan cost $203,260 leaving $214,160 or $114,160 (114.16% profit) on the $100,000 originally invested.

On November 1, 2006 we made the five changes mentioned above. We dropped the Japanese equities and emerging market bond mutual funds and added an Eastern European, Far Eastern and Turkey equity mutual funds. This is how the rearranged portfolio stood.

Amount

Currency

Investment

75,000

Rupee

Jyske Invest Indian Equity Mutual Fund

75,000

Yuan

Jyske Invest Chinese Equity Mutual Fund

75,000

EUR

Jyske Invest Eastern European Equities

50,000

Asian

Jyske Invest Far Eastern Equities

25,000

Lira

Jyske Invest Turkish Equities

Investments Total Value 300,000.00

Invested $100,000

Loan $200,000 100.00% Czech Koruna at 3.875%

Loan cost for one year $7,750.

As promised this portfolio only had five changes. We swapped the Japanese equity fund for a Eastern European equity fund and dropped the bond fund replacing it with a Far Eastern and Turkey equity fund.

May I, at this point, interject a note about Jyske Invest fund managers. They are a Danish firm and are the investment management affiliate of Jyske Bank. This rock solid organization uses a good value system have been rated #1 by Morningstar. They use this value system to select shares in their mutual funds and we place these funds in our multi currency portfolios because they are strictly regulated by the Danish government and have such an excellent record…because they focus on finding value, not market timing.

So how did this new updated portfolio do? From November 1, 2006 to October 31, 2007 the fund rose in value from $300,000 to $430,370. The loan payoff of $207,750 leaves a profit of $222,620 or a rise of 122.62%.

There you have it, a safe sleepy portfolio created at and held in one of the world’s safest banks. With only three trades in two years the performance has been up 114.16% in year one and up 122.62% in year two.

I am sure that when looking at performance like that you are thinking “how did the other portfolios do?” Good question and your suspicions are correct…some of the other portfolios did not rise this much.

Yet believe it or not some portfolios did even better.

For example the 2007 Green Portfolio consisted of six shares and rose 266.30%!

Here is the exact performance of all five portfolios for the last two years.

2006 Portfolio

US Dollar Long

9.04%

US Dollar Short

10.43%

US Dollar Hedge

11.46%

Emerging Market

42.93%

Asia Emerging Market

114.16%

2007 Portfolios

Dollar Neutral

38.67%

Dollar Short

48.19%

Swiss Samba

53.32%

Asia Emerging Market

122.62%

Green

266.30%

You can imagine with performance like this attracted quite a bit of attention…and it did.  However these high returns are not the important benefit you gain with our multi currency course.

Our course does not recommend nor manage portfolios.  We did not suggest that any single reader invest in any of these portfolios. The portfolios are educational and designed to help readers work with their own investment manager to create their own multi currency portfolio that suits their own special, individual needs.

Our multi currency investment course helps readers learn how to manage their manager… nothing more.

Yet this is incredibly valuable because Jyske Bank can provide a stable and safe institution for those who wish to employ a multi currency strategy.

The course helps guide readers so they can direct any investment adviser or investment manager who understands how to invest in more than one currency.

The course also helps you manage risk. The incredible portfolio performance above was achieved because the portfolios were leveraged using a tactic we call a multi currency sandwich. Investors borrow low and invest in yielding or growth portfolios. The portfolios used loans in Japanese yen and Swiss francs to magnify profits in good times.

The course teaches how these loans can magnify losses in bad times as well.

For example look at the performance of the leveraged portfolios we created to study from November 2007 through September 2008.

2008 Portfolios

Infrastructure Portfolio

-112%

Blue Chip Portfolio

-79%

Danish Health Portfolio

-92%

Asia Emerging Market

-73%

Green

-56%

Leverage in 2008 caused the portfolios to lose badly…in one instance the total portfolio was lost!

The multi currency course is useful because it helps investors not to expect rising markets all the time.

The power of studying markets real time, as they unfold, wards off false expectations.

The course helps subscribers learn how to look ahead and act rather that react (after the fact when it is too late).

The sad fact is…we all have to become multi currency investors.  Trusting your fate to any one currency now can destroy your purchasing power.    Every investor needs to know what to do!

The course helps spot when to leverage good times and when to retract for the bad.  he idea is to cash in when the going is good and then withdraw.

For example in early August 2007…well before the market crash….our study of the market began to show increased risk.  Our first warning lesson said:  “We have enjoyed two years of enormous growth.  Periods of high growth are normally followed by periods of low growth.”

August 17, 2007 a lesson said: “The numbers are close enough that we could be entering the fourth sub cycle down (similar to 1976 to 1978). If so expect a sustained drop in markets for two to three years.”

On September 21, 2007, a lesson said: “equity markets dropped again violently last month. Now these markets have recovered again. Yet this may be a last gasp party.”

An October 14, 2007 lesson stated:  “We never know for sure when an upwards cycle will stall. Fundamentals look good for a bright 2008 in emerging and equity markets, but this can change quickly so to give our readers a better perspective, this year we are reducing leverage and adding a sixth portfolio with no leverage to study”.

The October 15, 2007 lesson reviewed how leveraged investments rise and fell faster than investments without leverage.

The lesson on Oct 26, 2007  saved many investors as it was entitled Leveraged Investments Gone.  Just before markets started to head south this lesson warned: “I have had only about 10% of my portfolio leveraged. Compare this to 200% for the Green Portfolio (which is up 265% this year). Now I have none.

So a lot of my portfolio investments are basically in a multi currency portfolio of bonds…mostly in pounds, Swedish and Danish kroner. The equities I hold are mainly in Europe and I do not leverage equities…especially after markets have risen so much. Periods of high returns are normally followed by periods of low returns. These facts, plus my belief that numerous economic woes are rising and my recollection of Oct 1987 leave me wanting to reduce risk in my equity portfolio. So now I have eliminated all my leverage.”

The next lesson warned again: “Okay it’s time to turn the burner down.”

A November 8, 2007 Black Friday lesson reviewed  all the warnings above again and more.

The course also helps readers find ways to spot unusual distortions that profit even in bad times.

For example  lessons  on April 18 and April 27 2009 looked at the benefit of investing in Brazilian currency bonds.

This lesson led to a quick profit.

Here is an excerpt from our June 12, 2009 lesson:

Based on these ideas and those presented in the April 18 and April 27 lessons we looked at why Brazilian bonds made good sense in the LONG TERM.

Sometimes we get lucky though in the short term… as we have now.

Brazilian bonds have made a sudden jump up!   Those who have invested in them have made as much as 50% (in US dollar terms) this year.

Yet the distortion we’ll review below shows how there is even more dollar denominated profit potential ahead.

Last week the Brazilian central bank lowered key interest rates to 9.25%.  This will likely send the price of  Brazilian real denominated bonds up.

The central bank has stated that there could be more rate cuts, but they will be smaller.

This is positive news plus Brazilian inflation has declined to 5.2% from 5.53% in April 2009.

When you take into account the high interest of the real, the rise in value of bonds and the rise of the real you can see the potential.

Brazilian real bonds have risen nearly 30% since the beginning of the year…  in terms of Euro!

This is where there is another huge distortion.  The real has not risen anywhere near this much versus the dollar.

The charts from finance.yahoo.com below show the distortion.

In the last three months the US dollar has dropped from $1 = 2.30 BRL to $1 = $1.97 (- 14.3%) versus the Brazilian real as this chart shows.

brazil-distortion

In the last three months the euro has dropped from 1 euro = 3.05BRL to 1 euro = 2.60 BRL (-13.5%).   This correlation of the euro and dollar would seem normal except…

brazil-distortion

as the chart below shows, the euro has risen from $1 euro = $1.28 to 1 euro =$1.40 a 9.27% rise versus the US dollar.

brazil-distortion

In addition the Brazilian central bank has had to intervene several times in recent months to avoid the Brazilian real being too strong against the euro.

Traditionally the real has had a strong correlation with the dollar but the recent weakening of the buck versus the dollar has not spilled over into the Brazilian real.

In other words. The real is up against the euro almost 10% more than against the dollar.  This is called a cross rate distortion and means that one of two things is likely to happen.  The dollar will rise versus the euro or  the dollar will fall versus the Brazilian real.

Given the fundamental US fiscal weaknesses that could push the dollar down, I am bullish on the real rising more versus the dollar and this makes me bullish about Brazilian real denominated bonds.

Always remember the basic rule though is to never speculate more than you can afford to lose.   A US dollar – Brazilian real sandwich is worth discussing with your portfolio manager or adviser now but could creates losses as well as profits.

I have not leveraged my Brazilian bond investment. Based on this data I instructed JGAM to increase me Brazilian bond holdings.

If you are using Jyske Bank, and are a non US citizen or resident, or a US citizen living abroad, you can simply have the bank purchase Brazilian bonds and lend you the funds (within the bank’s loan to asset restrictions).   Non US citizens contact Rene Mathys for more details at mathys@jbpb.dk

US citizens should contact Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

If you are a US citizen resident in the US and have an advisory account with JGAM, they may not be able to buy Brazilian bonds for you.  They could  buy the US traded ETF “The WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real Fund.” (BZF)

These three lessons (April and June 2009) helped many readers cash in on an unusual value!

I would like to invite you to enroll in our multi currency investment course and to also receive a nine lesson report that covers basics and fundamentals of  multi currency investing.

This nine lesson report has been read by tens of thousands of investors over the years.   This report sells on its own as a survivor’s hand guide to currency turmoil for $79.  I’ll email it to you free when you enroll in our online course.

The course is emailed to you regularly and studies stock, bond and currency markets worldwide, real time, as they unfold.

I believe, from the response of tens of thousands of readers over the last 20 years, that you will gain enormously from the course.

Our course helps you learn  why and where to invest and learn why and how currencies and interest rates rise and or fall.

The initial nine lesson report I’ll email you free also shows how to calculate and manage leveraged risk and how to decide if and when to leverage or not.

Is this course for you?

Everyone needs to know how to have multi currency diversification. But in case this course does not help you, we provide a 30 day “completely satisfied or your money back” guarantee that we have offered our hundreds of thousands of readers for more than 20 years.

Our Multi Currency Educational Service is a mere $175 for a very long and educational year! Won’t you share this exciting world of wealth accumulation with us and our readers around the world? Multi Currency Educational Service

Gary Scott

Multi Currency Portfolios Course. Subscribe

Or enjoy this multi currency course for a year free!  Here is how you can save $175.

We enhance our emailed courses with regular international investing and business seminars that I conduct in coordination with Jyske Bank and Jyske Global Asset Management.

Here I am at our last seminar in Naples Florida (may 2009).

multi-currency-debt

The speakers at the Naples seminar discussed prospects for the economic future.  Left to right: Samuel Rachlin,  Rich Checkan, Steve Blumenthal, Joe Cox, John Mauldin, Gary Scott, Lars Stouge. Thomas Fischer Moderating.

The 115 delegates reported that they really gained from listening to what we had to say and…

brazilian-bond-distortion

talking among themselves during the coffee brakes and at meals.

brazilian-bond-distortion

One benefit of these seminars is talking to an overseas banker.  Here I am at the Naples  seminar  with my Jyske account executive Anders Nielsen.

brazilian-bond-distortion

Thomas Fischer of Jyske Global Asset Management will join us for the July North Carolina seminar.

I invite you to attend this July course. If you enroll between now and July 1st, I’ll also enroll you in  our emailed multi currency course free. You save $175.

Enroll in our July 24-26 International Investing and Business Made EZ course here

Here is Thomas speaking to our delegates at a previous course.

brazilian-bond-distortion

Enroll in our emailed Multi Currency Portfolios Course for $175  here.  Subscribe

Save $175!  Receive the emailed course free when you Enroll in our July 24-26 International Investing and Business Made EZ course here

Here is what a few others from around the world have said about our services and reports on international investing.

“ Gary , I am a long time subscriber in various media, and while cleaning out my files today I found some old ‘Gary A. Scotts World Reports’. In particular, the April 1988 issue provided the info that made me over a million dollars. Just wanted to say a belated ‘thank you’ and please continue the excellent work. Warm regards,”

From an Unknown Reader

“Dear Gary, I would like to give thanks to you for introducing me to Jyske Bank two years ago.

“I have been a long-time client of Merrill Lynch, but am in the process of re-evaluating my relationship with the largest brokerage company in the world. My problem is that when I compare Merrill to Jyske, Jyske outshines Merrill (or other major U.S. brokerage firms) in most categories as follows:

“1) Even though Jyske is much smaller, it has a much more global perspective which is critical in an evermore global investment environment.

“2) In order to maximize their own individual revenue, the brokers at Merrill prefer to outsource the day-to-day management of their accounts to various fund managers and hence, ‘manage the managers’. In contrast, I can call my Account Manager at Jyske and he can discuss every aspect of my account in detail with me.

“3) I attribute this difference in #2 to the fact that Jyske’s employees are not compensation driven, but instead are focused on satisfying their customers. That is why Jyske’s clients stay with the Bank on average for 12 years, which is phenomenal by Wall Street standards.

“4) Jyske’s security is far more stringent than that of Merrill’s. In addition to the standard account code and password, to pass through Jyske’s security one has to enter a Key Card number and also a randomly-generated 4-digit number from said Key Card.

“5) Having an account offshore allows me to sleep better given the anxious times we live in. Since I report the existence of the account and pay all taxes due, I am fully compliant with the law. However, such an account gives me and my family a ‘financial life boat’ should events in our own country ever get out of hand.

“As Dorothy Parker once said, ‘You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them THINK’. Jyske is a thinking person’s bank. My only complaint is the time zone difference since I live in California . However, since I am an early riser and my Account Manager is very responsive to my emails, this problem is very small relative to the HUGE benefits.

“Again, many thanks for introducing me to Jyske Bank. Given the ‘dumbing down’ that occurs in the popular media today, your ezine and its recommendations are ever more important. Please continue your good work to enlighten your readership.

“Warm regards,”

C.M. CALIFORNIA Businessman

“I was so overwhelmed with information I received I had to spend several days reading, sorting and filing it! I have decided to move my modest investment capital overseas.”

B.W. MONTREAL CANADA Professor

“Send me your report on safe banks lending at 7% for redeposit at 13% or more.” B.V. ADDIS ABADA ETHIOPIA Economic Commission United Nations

“A number of new and significant contacts were made. It would be extremely helpful if you could supply us with WORLD REPORTS.” I.M. TORONTO , CANADA Banker

“You are as good as your word which is rare these days. I look forward to attending one of your seminars.” C.K. GENEVA , SWITZERLAND Banker

“In spite of my marketing experience, your information really got me going!” M. C. LONDON, ENGLAND Marketing Consultant

“Thanks for the three reports. They are very interesting and should find many readers here in Japan .” M.A. Tokyo , JAPAN Computer Programmer

“I would like to say how much I enjoyed the information I received.” A.B. Providenciales TURKS & CAICOS Accountant

“First let me say how much we enjoyed the investment seminar.” W.J. SAUDI ARABIA Oil Engineer

“Once again thanks for all the great information.” G.K. PERTH , AUSTRALIA Insurance Executive

“Your letter of November 8th warned me to beware of the market just a week before the 120 point crash on November 15th!” T.G. N. CAROLINA Pilot”

Won’t you join us as we learn from our Multi Currency Educational Service? Just a mere $175 for a full 12 months of valuable, wealth building education.

Enroll in our emailed Multi Currency Portfolios Course for $175  here.  Subscribe

Save $175!  Receive the emailed course free when you Enroll in our July 24-26 International Investing and Business Made EZ course here

The American Dream Goes South at Florida Investment Seminar


I’ll focus on how the American dream is heading south at JGAM’s multi currency seminar in Florida this May.

If looked at one way… the American dream is dead. Let’s ramble through economic history for a moment to see why.

In the early 1980s the US had a challenge… a severe recession from July 1981 to November 1982.  Inflation was high so the Fed  slowed the rate of growth of the money supply and raised interest rates. The federal funds rate rose to 20% by June 1981. The prime interest rate, at the time a highly important economic measure, eventually reached 21.5% in June 1982. Businesses went broke by the drove… 50 percent over the previous year.  Especially hard hit were farmers and real estate developers.

The recession was the most serious recession since the Great Depression.

This was tough but inflation eased and the economy rebounded.  Growth took off again… real growth without bad inflation because the real estate overhang and subsequent bankruptcy of the Savings & Loan industry was dealt with by the Resolution Trust Corporation.

RTC liquidated via auction and a massive sell off to private business, the real estate that had been assets of savings and loan associations that were insolvent.

The US government had the sense then not to try and control these assets.  Entrepreneurs bought the assets for pennies on the dollar and turned the property into viable deals in ways that no government agency ever could.

Japan then had a serious recession and the same opportunity.  There was a real estate and stock bubble in Japan in the 1980s.   Then in 1989 there was a massive withdrawal of confidence. Investment collapsed, causing the Nikkei index to fall more than 60 percent.

The Japanese government however decided that it could provide a fix. the Japanese felt they could not let big Japanese businesses go broke.  Between 1992 and 1995, Japan tried six spending programs totaling 65.5 trillion yen. They cut  taxes in 1994. In 1998 they cut taxes again and launched stimulus packages worth more than 40 trillion yen.,  A year later… another stimulus program. In 2000 11 trillion yen more was spent to stimulate the economy.

Over a decade the Japanese government provided 10 stimulus packages worth more than a 100 trillion yen.   The main result was to ruin the Japanese government’s credit with public debt that exceeds 100 percent of GDP. This is the highest percent of debt of all major nations.

Any other results?  Here is evidence… the main Japanese stock index the Nikkei 225 from 1989 till 2009.  Japanese society is indebted for life and the stock exchange has fallen from over 35,000 to  7,600 in 20 years.

Wow that really worked well… so

power-investing

now the US government has decided to do the same thing.

Last week the government  offered another $30 billion in funds to A.I.G. insurance.  This is the fourth round of aid to the American International Group. The government already owns nearly 80 percent of the insurer’s holding company. How much more can they buy?

This sounds like a good investment since the insurance giant was about to report a $62 billion loss after the government has already given a $60 billion loan, a $40 billion purchase of preferred shares and purchased $50 billion of the company’s toxic assets.

Behind this, the government has invested $50 billion in Citigroup… $45 billion in Bank of America.  The Us auto bailout could cost another 100 billion. More on that in a later message.

This is all taking place as the US economy spirals down at an accelerated pace.

Yet the current administration is basing its spending on calculations that suggest vigorous rates of economic growth in years to come.

They have suggested this economic growth will come in 2010.

I wonder?

There seems to  a disconnect between the Federal projections and fiscal reality.   Current conditions are not yet at the level of the 1980s, when unemployment exceeded 10 percent, but they could be soon.

Moody’s chief economist now places the odds of “a mild depression” at 25 percent. In that view, the unemployment rate would reach 10.5 percent by the end of 2011 — up from 7.6 percent at the end of January — average home prices would fall 20 percent on top of the 27 percent they have plunged already, and losses in the financial system would more than triple, to $3.7 trillion.

Yet President Obama calls this a “once in a generation” opportunity and proposed a 10-year budget that overhauls health care, arrests global warming and expands the federal role in education.

How to pay for it?   Tax more corporations and the wealthiest taxpayers.

Wrong!  Higher tax will simply kill business or drive it abroad.  What a  good idea to chase away the last of the success.

The President said  he would shrink annual deficits.  His explanation is that he will increase revenue from rich individuals and polluting industries, reduce war costs and assume a good rate of economic growth by 2010.

The rich will stop working or leave the US.  The polluters will move to Mexico or China or wherever.   The high rate of economic growth will not appear.  Stopping the war will help… but not enough.

Technology means that politicians can no longer ignore the global market and tax its citizens to death.

Take for example what is happening in Ecuador.  Remittances sent by  Ecuadorians who work abroad fell 22 percent in the last quarter of 2008.

$643.9 million was sent from October to December 2008. This is $181.7 million less than in Oct.to Dec.2007.

A similar drop was experienced in the third quarter of 2008 and is caused by the global financial crisis and especially the economic slowdown in the United States, where it is estimated 1.5 million Ecuadorians live and work.

The U.S. employment rate has crashed especially in manufacturing and construction which employ a large number of Ecuadorians.

The same is true in  Spain – where 600,000 Ecuadorians live. this is the second-leading destination for Ecuadorians.

This means that there are more Ecuadorians to serve for less in Ecuador.  This forces the Ecuador cost of living down down.

So if you are an American who is about to be super taxed… where would you choose to live?  Our farm manager sent us this note recently, “We had 4 inches of snow in China Grove.”

multi-currency-florida-course

Would you rather live there and pay more tax or…

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enjoy open air dining as Merri and are doing here in our Cotacachi hotel courtyard with Dan Prescher and Suzan Haskins or…

multi-currency-investing-florida-course

would you rather enjoy a mountain train ride as these…

multi-currency-investing-florida-course new Cotacachi residents are doing…  passing through green mountains  and blue skies.  Getting a sun burn.

multi-currency-investing-florida-course

The is the train from Ibarra to Salinas Ecuador.  Would you rather be taxed extra to be in this pool or…

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be here on Ecuador’s coast with tax advantages?

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Which view will the rich prefer?  This in the US or…

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this… especially if this San Clemente Ecuador ocean view costs much, much less?

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Where would I prefer to walk with my hound?  Here in sub zero temperatures or

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here in Cotacachi Ecuador…especially if I am taxed less and the cost of living is much lower and government interference in my life is less?

multi-currency-investing-florida-course

Technology and the global market gives us as individuals enormous power to live where and as we choose that politicians can no longer ignore.

The government’s attitude to increase taxes on those who work hard could turn the existing brain drain from the US into a brain torrent.

In short there are many reasons I see that suggest the economic mess will  last for years in the US,  just as it has in Japan.

Recently, Warren Buffett wrote in his company’s annual report that “the economy will be in shambles, throughout 2009, and, for that matter, probably well beyond.”

This is not the picture we expect of the American dream.  However the picture is not bad for all.  Not all Italians became poor when Rome fell.  Italy is still a great place to live.  There are still millions of Japanese who have thrived over the past 15 years of Japanese recession.  The end of the America dream does not have to be the end of your dream.

In the US we can expect the rich to get richer… the poor poorer.   We can see why from our study of Power Distance Index.  We looked at PDI, and what it is, in a recent message about JGAM’s multi currency seminar.

There is more about Power Distance Index at http://www.clearlycultural.com which says:

Hofstede’s Power Distance Index measures the extent to which the less powerful members of organizations and institutions (like the family) accept and expect that power is distributed unequally. This represents inequality (more versus less), but defined from below, not from above. It suggests that a society’s level of inequality is endorsed by the followers as much as by the leaders.

For example, Germany has a 35 on the cultural scale of Hofstede’s analysis. Compared to Arab countries where the power distance is very high (80) and Austria where it very low (11), Germany is somewhat in the middle. Germany does not have a large gap between the wealthy and the poor, but have a strong belief in equality for each citizen. Germans have the opportunity to rise in society.

On the other hand, the power distance in the United States scores a 40 on the cultural scale. The United States exhibits a more unequal distribution of wealth compared to German society. As the years go by it seems that the distance between the ‘have’ and ‘have-nots’ grows larger and larger.

The trick then is to not accept the PDI from the lower end. Let me explain.

Excerpts from 2007 article by a Stefan Bach , Giacomo Corneo  and Viktor Steiner at www.voxeu.org entitled German income inequality outlines an idea.  The article says:

Paul Krugman frequently mentions that America’s super rich make the 19th Century wealthy look poor. “We know what John D. Rockefeller, the richest man in Gilded Age America, made in 1894 … $1.25 million, almost 7,000 times the average per capita income in the United States at the time.” Krugman wrote. ”But that makes him a mere piker by modern standards … James Simons, a hedge fund manager, took home $1.7 billion, more than 38,000 times the average income.”

Surely such extremes cannot happen on Continental Europe with its social market economics and social solidarity. The authors of Policy Insight No. 4 shows that although income inequality in Germany is a long way from reaching US proportions, the trend is in that direction. Germany rich are getting richer, and its super-rich are getting super-richer.

In other words as a society progresses, those with power get richer while the majority of  the population become poorer.

Note above that power is determined  from below, not from above. It suggests that a society’s level of inequality is endorsed by the followers as much as by the leaders.”

Power is an illusion that keeps most investors and business people depressed while a few gain from this social falsification.

The internet destroys this illusion. The web gives us all power!  Today we have as much opportunity as the rich to gain from the changes that this economic correction will bring.

This is why Merri, our webmaster and I have created a new course on how to build a web business with a webmaster.  More on this in a moment.

First what you can do as an investor or with your own business.

One answer we saw above is to live in a better lower cost environment like Ecuador.

Another answer is to be a multi currency investor. Despite America’s government spending , the dollar has been gaining, particularly against European currencies. The euro slipped to under $1.26, nearing a two-year low and down from a high of almost $1.60. This is caused as fearful investors jump into 10-year Treasury bonds… which have been shown to be terrible long term investments.   All the US government spending means that the US dollar will fall. But against what?

The euro is not a trustworthy currency now. A March 1, 2009 New York Times article by Steven Erlanger and Stephen Castle entitled “Growing Economic Crisis Threatens the Idea of One Europe” explains why.  Here is an excerpt from that article:

The leaders of the European Union gathered Sunday in Brussels in an emergency summit meeting that seemed to highlight the very worries it was designed to calm: that the world economic crisis has unleashed forces threatening to split Europe into rival camps.

With uncertain leadership and few powerful collective institutions, the European Union is struggling with the strains this crisis has inevitably produced among 27 countries with uneven levels of development.

Whether Europe can reach across constituencies to create consensus, however, has been an open, and suddenly pressing, question.

“The European Union will now have to prove whether it is just a fair-weather union or has a real joint political destiny,” said Stefan Kornelius, the foreign editor of the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung. “We always said you can’t really have a currency union without a political union, and we don’t have one. There is no joint fiscal policy, no joint tax policy, no joint policy on which industries to subsidize or not. And none of the leaders is strong enough to pull the others out of the mud.”

Thomas Klau, Paris director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, an independent research and advocacy group, said, “This crisis affects the political union that backs the euro and of course the E.U. as a whole, and solidarity is at the heart of the debate.”

“All of that is in doubt if the cornerstone of the E.U. — its internal market, economic union and solidarity — is in question,” said Ronald D. Asmus, a former State Department official who runs the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund.

If the the euro is a good currency for diversification, which currencies are?

Our multi currency course helps you learn how to diversify into safe currencies.  Our studies currently suggest that the Danish, Swedish, Norwegian kroner and Canadian dollar make sense. For example beginning in March the Swedish kroner hit a new record low. The Eastern European problems are having an adverse impact on the Swedish banks.   Also the Norwegian currency is a good technical buy.

You can join us to understand why these currencies make sense by subscribing to our on line multi currency course.

You can also join us for a currency review at JGAM’s Naples Florida investment course May 29 to 31, 2009.  This course is $499 ($750 for two) but free to those who have subscribed to our on line multi currency course.

Another way you can attend JGAM Florida seminar free is to subscribe to our course on how to have a web based business.   You can enroll in this special course for $299 and attend the JGAM course in Naples free.

Here is a special offer on this course “Tangled Web – How to Have a Web Business“.

Or join us for an upcoming course in North Carolina or Ecuador.

Gary

Future 2009 courses

May 29-31  JGAM Multi Currency investment Seminar Naples Florida

June 12-14 Shamanic Mingo Tour
June 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
June 18-21 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 3-6 Ecuador Import Export Expedition
July 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
July 10-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two

Ecuador Banking & Currency Excerpts


Ecuador banking for gringos can be made easy.

You can use banks like this without even opening a bank account.  We’ll see why in a moment.  First…

Ecuador-multi-currency-atm

First this is day three in Ecuador health week.

Ecuador Health Tip #3  is to simply eat more simply and eat less.

Good nutrition is a vital part of good health. But what nutritionally is right?

Having lived around the globe, I have learned so many schools of thought on nutrition (starting with McDonald’s my primary food provider when in high school and I’m still paying for that bad habit) to shamanic Andean nutritional routines., that my head spins when I think about it. Plus Merri and I nrolled in a doctorate degree program (not for the degree but the knowledge) on holistic nutrition.

Program for Health

The problem is, the more one reads, the more the experts seem to contradict themselves! Some say eat raw, others only cooked. Some say something is good others bad and the list of conflicts goes on and on.

Many of them are right, but the crunch is they are only right part of the time, or in some instances or only if an entire program is followed. And of course, most of them don’t take into account body types, which for us is of utmost importance.

Merri’s and my program for health falls into three categories-nutrition, exercise, consciousness and purification. The three parts are so intertwined that one cannot look at any one of them totally alone.

These categories wrap around themselves in every material and consciousness aspect of health. For example, what we watch on TV is a consciousness aspect of nutrition. Our entire being has to digest what we watch, see and hear. So what we see is a type of nutrition. What we see, hear, smell, feel and taste as we eat (and even before a meal) also impacts the digestion of food. Digestion works with every sense and affects the nutrition we receive.

So the rule of KEEP IT SIMPLE seems to be one that almost all the systems I have blundered across agree on.

Certainly a secret of slowing the aging process is do not eat too much!

This sounds so simple but the fact is almost every diet book in the world tiptoes around this simple fact. Many claim you can eat as much as you want on a diet. Rubbish. The only way that scientific research has ever shown to live a longer life is by cutting back calories.

Biologist Siegfried Hekimi learned how to lengthen the average lifespan of tiny transparent worms from 15 to 20 days (the equivalent of increasing a human lifespan from 75 to 100) and confirmed what many scientific studies have found. There is a link between metabolism and lifespan. Eating less can slow the metabolism down.

Our Andean shaman stressed this fact in many ways.  As mentioned in tip #2, I once asked him his most important rule for nutrition. “Eat only on an empty stomach,” was his reply.

This is hard to do if you eat too much. Your blood sugar rockets (from all the food). This causes your adrenalin to kick in to keep the blood sugar in balance. This causes the blood sugar to plummet. This makes you hungry way before the body has had a chance to digest its meal.

There are more reasons. The body is very adept at confirming to our circumstances by creating habits. We eat a lot and the stomach is stretched. The body worries about this and grows the stomach. The bigger stomach instills the habit for more food to fill it. Habits are hard to break except because we are subject to the law of diminishing returns, we want to eat more and more and more.

That’s a universal rule. Let’s look at some specifics. The Andean nutritional system keeps a good fat, protein carbohydrate balance. The Andean shamanic health diet  does not mix sweet with salt. They avoid fermented foods and divide foods into three group: sweet, savory and neutral. You can mix sweet and neutral or salt and neutral but not sweet and savory.

Melon and pineapple are only eaten alone. The Shamanic way is to have light sweet meals morning and evening and full savory meal at noon.

Keeping life simple makes sense when it comes to Ecuador living and banking.   This excerpt of a full report on Ecuador banking, just sent to our Ecuador Living subscribers shows why. Here is the excerpt.

Ecuador’s currency is the US dollar so no currency exchange is required coming or going.  This makes banking easy to begin…but how can one operate money wise on a day to day basis.

There are several ways to bank in Ecuador without having an Ecuador bank account.

Let me add to begin.  I do not trust Ecuador banks. I  lost a fair amount of money in Ecuador banks when they crashed in 1999.  Once bitten twice shy.  plus it is hard for anyone without a resident visa (which Merri and I do not have nor desire) to open an Ecuador bank account.   There are better ways.

One way is  to use ATMs.  Merri and I never had an ATM card in the US but found that this is a good way to access cash here. We also have a safe in all our rooms in Meson de las Flores. Most  hotels  offer free safety deposit boxes so when we arrive, we just put all our cash, wallet with credit cards and passports in our safe box. Then we just have a bit of cash like $20 or so in our pockets.

Ecuador ATM’s

Merri and I live off of ATMs in Ecuador for our day to day cash needs..

ATM’s are in almost every village in Ecuador and are compatible with international credit cards.

Visa credit cards work at ATMs operated by Bank of Guayaquil, Pichincha, Produbanco and Banco Pacífico. Each ATM shows the logos of which cards can be used on that machine. We use our regular ATM cash card issued by our Florida bank at this Bank of Pichincha branch (shown above) on Cotacachi’s second smaller plaza.

Ecuador-multi-currency-plaza

The plaza is pristine because it is maintained by the bank.

Ecuador-multi-currency-atm-sign

The bank is next to the police station and the second smaller Cathedral.

Ecuador-multi-currency-atm-cathedral

Bes ure to see further on what they are doing behind the bank.  There are two Cathedrals in Cotacachi and one bank…a nice ratio.

However there are three Cotacachi ATMs. The other two are on the main street 10th of August. Here is one of them…the newest of the three.

cotacachi-road-work

We are allowed to take $500 a day from the Pichincha ATM and $300 a day from the others.

Jyske ATM Banking in Ecuador

One nifty way to combine global investment management bank and your cash needs in Ecuador is through Copenhagan with Jyske Bank’s VISA debit cards.

This card makes it easy to access cash from your Danish bank account.

Why a Danish bank?  As mentioned earlier I do not trust Ecuador banks. On the other hand Danish banks are among the safest in the world.

First let’s examine safety.  How safe?

In recent years Denmark has been rated by Standard & Poor’s as one of the safest country in the world in which to bank.

Jyske Bank is well established with a history of over 100 years. Jyske is Denmark ’s second largest bank, with 450,000 clients in Denmark and over 30,000 abroad.

Jyske Bank has over 23 billion euros in assets and also happens to be one of the leading currency traders in the world. Many other large banks use Jyske to handle their off hour currency positions. This means that Jyske is huge when it comes to multi currency activity. In fact their turnover reaches $50 billion dollars a day.

Bank Safety Point #1: A recent Yahoo Canada article shows a survey by the World Economic Forum listed five safest countries in which to bank.

Canada
Sweden
Luxembourg
Australia
Denmark

So Denmark is a safe place to bank. Now let’s look at Jyske Bank’s safety rating.

Bank Safety Point #2: On October 10 2008, Moody’s affirmed Jyske Bank’s long-term Aa2 rating. This decision came despite the deteriorated economic prospects in Denmark, particularly in respect of the property market.

Bank Safety Point #3: Also on Friday 10 October 2008, the Danish Parliament passed a bill that secured all deposits and unsecured claims against losses in Danish financial institutions. The rating of the Kingdom of Denmark is Aaa/AAA with Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s respectively.

The people at Jyske are common sense bankers. They had minimal sub prime exposure when that scandal broke. Jyske had zero Madoff exposure.

That’s safe!

How about service?  First of all,  Jyske can manage your wealth. For anyone with $50,000 or more to invest Jyske can buy, sell and hold investments from all over the world, stocks, liquid assets, bonds and commodities. They provide full managed or advisory only services.  They even lend in multiple currencies to leverage investments for investors with $100,000 or more.   Almost no bank in North or Latin America can do this.

Once you have Jyske caring for your wealth, they can then provide a steady stream of cash when you need it…via a global debit card.

Jyske Ecuador & Global Service.

Even US clients who have managed accounts at Jyske Global Asset Management  (JGAM) can have a VISA debit card.

JGAM opens a specific on demand account with Jyske Bank so funds can be made available via the card.

These cards can provide access to cash anywhere in the world…including Ecuador.

Here is Cotacachi’s third ATM.

cotacachi-road-work

Jyske offers three different cards to match different needs.   Each type of card provides considerable flexibility.

You can choose to have the card denominated in a number of currencies based on your choice.  An account is created at Jyske bank in the same currency. No matter the account currency,  the cards can be nominated in euro, US dollar,  British pound, Swiss franc, Swedish or Danish kroner.

If you have have dollars invested and are drawing dollars in Ecuador, you can eliminate forex costs by nominating your card in US dollars.

For more information US investors contact Thomas Fischer of Jyske Global Asset Management at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors contact Rene Mathys of Jyske Bank at mathys@jbpb.dk

You can read the entire report on how to protect against Ecuador banks, Ecuador bank fees and access money in Ecuador …to pay bills, live and invest  etc. as an Ecuador Living subscriber.

Keeping your investing simple in these complex and difficult times can also be easy as the excerpt below form our multi currency course explains.  Here is the excerpt.

Inflation…to be or not to de… Deflate that is. That is the question…we must answer to invest correctly in the days ahead.

I lean further towards inflation over deflation each day.  We can see it coming…governments (led by the USA) spending so much money they do not have, that currencies lose purchasing power.

Here is another inflationary note from the New York Times in an article yesterday that said:

President-elect Barack Obama plans to include about $300 billion in tax cuts for workers and businesses in his economic recovery program, advisers said Sunday, as his team seeks to win over Congressional skeptics worried that he was too focused on government spending.

The legislation Mr. Obama is developing with Congressional Democrats will devote about 40 percent of the cost to tax cuts, including his centerpiece campaign promise to provide credits up to $500 for most workers, costing roughly $150 billion. The package will also include more than $100 billion in tax incentives for businesses to create jobs and invest in equipment or factories.

This may seem like really good news for business, but bad news for the US dollar and hence inflation.   Spending that is not matched by production is inflationary.

For most people, this is bad.

Yet inflation creates fortunes for those of us who know what to do.

There are three ways to profit and stay ahead of inflation. Multi currency investments in distorted shares….distorted commodities and distorted real estate.

TO KEEP MY GLOBAL INVESTING SIMPLE, I BREAK DOWN MY INVESTMENTS INTO THREE PORTIONS, personal…pension…and property.

Yesterday’s lesson looked at my current personal investments to see how I am reacting to this scenario.  We saw that our current asset  breakdown in our personal liquid portfolio is:
Cash Accounts 36%
Bonds 64%

This cash and bonds have a currency breakdown of

Canadian dollar       9%
Euro                         18%
British pound          3%
Hungarian florin   19%
Norway Kroner        9%
NZ dollar                   9%
Sweden kroner       26%
US dollar                   8%

We asked …why all cash and bonds if I believe in inflation?

You may even wonder more when you see  my pension portfolio breakdown.
The asset breakdown of my pension liquid investments are:

This portfolio is more aggressive than my personal liquid portfolio, with shares, emerging shares and emerging currencies.

You can see my pension portfolio breakdown and why I  keep the investments with the lowest potential profit in my personal account since profits and the high risk investments in my pension as a Multi Currency Portfolio Course

Until next message, may all your money be easy to access in a simple way!

Gary

Join us at a course in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Cotacachi speeds ahead! Yesterday we saw how a new road was transformed in a day.

MERRI AND I WALKED BACK AT 6:40 AM THIS MORNING AND THEY HAD MADE ENORMOUS PROGRESS AND WERE ALREADY ON THE JOB.

cotacachi-road-work

They already have sidewalks complete and…

cotacachi-road-work

are laying the brick pavers. I expect they’ll have made a huge impact by tomorrow and will report then. he workers were tickled when I showed them their picture.

cotacachi-road-work

Jyske Gobal Asset Management will join us Feb. 13-15 for our course International Business & Investing Made EZ

Join us at a course in Cotacachi to learn more about multi currency investing or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Feb. 9-11  Beyond Logic Simple Ways to More Wealth and Better Health

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ

Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 10-15 Ecuador Export Expedition

March 16-19 Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one$1,349 for two

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one$1,799 for two

Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our entire schedule of 27 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009 and how to attend as many of them as you like FREE.

The course fee includes meeting at Quito airport (day before the
course)…transportation (by group bus) to Cotacachi and back to Quito.
Course fee does not include air are. accommodations, food or individual transportation.

Profit From the 2011 Economic Disaster


Are We 33 Months From Real Economic Disaster?

Dear International Friend,

Many investors worry about the current economic downturn…yet there is a destructive investment fundamental that is now so powerful it overwhelms all other factors that affect investing.  It has such power it could destroy most investors in North America and make the current recession pale in comparison. The frightening part is it could unleash its destruction as soon as October 2011!  I want to share what, when and when this disaster could happen.

Then I want to share how you can make a fortune from NOW THROUGH 2012 and during this crash.

Before I explain how you can reap profits never before imagined and sidestep the upcoming disaster that will wipe out so many investors…..we need to look at some facts.

These are facts, figures and statistics that will truly horrify anyone who even keeps a modest checkbook.  The figures give rise to such great concern that we can see the horrible predicament into which we are being led.

Let me prepare you by assuring you that every economic crash is simply a shifting of fortunes.  Just as the depression of the 1930s created many millionaires, so will this crash.  Once you understand the problems, you can find easy ways to protect against them and become one of those who are enriched rather than ruined during the transition.

Part of this debacle will come because the US dollar is now near a major fall…in fact an unprecedented crash is a better term what will happen to the dollar.  We now know, having seen the Dow fall 50% in a year, that US institutions are not invincible from unparalleled drops.

There may be ups for the US Dollar.  For every period of a rising dollar, there will be longer periods when dollars fall.  For every upward move, there will be an ever greater fall,  Each rising will be weaker and shorter, each fall, longer and deeper.

In this knowledge lies a fortune!  Here is why this fact is so sure.

In 1964, the year Lyndon Johnson became president, the total national debt was  $316 billion. By the time, Ronald Reagan left office that debt had climbed to $2.6 trillion.  The interest cost alone was $214 billion.  By 1990 the debt had risen to $3.2 trillion and interest costs for just the one year were $242.9 billion. Interest was the largest single government cost after Social Security, even greater than defense spending.  That was when the economic problem began as US debt moved towards a precipice where recovery becomes impossible.

Flash forward 18 years and read this excerpt from a December 2008 Washington Post article.

“President Bush has nearly doubled the national debt during his eight years in the White House.  Mr. Bush is on track to add $5 trillion to the $5.73 trillion national debt he inherited when he took office. According to Treasury Department data, the number was $10.66 trillion at the end of November, and it has been rising at an astronomical rate.”

That’s bad enough…but the future gets worse as the article says that during fiscal 2008, which ended Sept. 30, 2008 the national debt increased by more than $1 trillion, breaking the previous fiscal year record of more than $600 billion.

The government’s debt situation is about to get worse as the Post outlines that
Federal debt should increase by $2 trillion in fiscal year 2009 alone!

Given an average interest rate of 4 percent, that $5 trillion of extra debt requires extra $200 billion per year from taxpayers in interest on that debt – in perpetuity.

The Post article points out,  “During October, the first month of fiscal 2009, the national debt increased by a staggering $549 billion. That was approximately three-quarters of $1 billion every hour of every day, or more than $12 million per minute and more than $200,000 per second.”

This is a lot of debt even for America’s 14 trillion a year economy.

Then the news gets worse.

Excerpts from an August 2008 US News & World report says:  “Welcome to America’s $2 Trillion Budget Deficit.  Barack Obama has already said that America’s ‘investment deficit’ will take priority over its budget deficit.

A rough estimate of the cost of this New New Deal would be close to $500 billion a year, maybe $775 billion if Uncle Sam is to completely offset the drop in consumer spending predicted by Rosenberg. Now, as it is, the government is expected to run a $500 billion deficit next year. So the S&S plan would put that budget deficit at over $1 trillion. And if you tack on a potential $500 billion to $1 trillion bailout of the banking industry, that $1 trillion deficit could conceivably double to $2 trillion.

But a $2 trillion budget deficit would be, like, 15 percent of GDP. That would be the highest level since World War II and more than twice as high as the postwar peak of 6 percent in 1983.

I can’t believe the global bond and currency market vigilantes wouldn’t completely freak, sending U.S. financial markets into chaos. Talk about a worst—though entirely possible—case scenario.

How much worse could the situation get… a one year deficit that is 15% of Americas fourteen trillion dollar a year economy?

The answer is much worse…in fact five times worse… because…
all of these government estimates are skewed.

If US debt is now 10 trillion and Obama’s administration borrows 2 billion more in 2009, that makes the debt look like 12 trillion.

Yet according to excerpts a USA Today article, “Taxpayers on the hook for $59 trillion” by Dennis Cauchon.  The federal government’s debt is five times worse if corporate-style accounting standards are used.

The article says:  “Modern accounting requires that corporations, state governments and local governments count expenses immediately when a transaction occurs, even if the payment will be made later.

“The federal government does not follow the rule, so promises for Social Security and Medicare don’t show up when the government reports its financial condition.

“Bottom line: Taxpayers are now on the hook for a record $59.1 trillion in liabilities, a 2.3% increase from 2006. That amount is equal to $516,348 for every U.S. household.”

With such fundamentals, it is hard to be anything but pessimistic about the US dollar.  This is why, with the information I am about to share, you can reap profits again and again.

Take for example the financial power that comes from understanding the value of the US dollar to the Japanese yen.

Despite the crash of 2008, long term investors in the US stock market have done well.  January  1, 1982, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 896.  January 1, 2009 it was  8,515.  That is a rise of 9.5 times in 26 years or about 36% (9% compounded) return a year…even after the 2008 crash!   $10,000 invested has grown to $95,000.

So, it seems.

Now, let’s look at the yen.  During the first half of the 1980s, the yen failed to rise in value even though current account surpluses returned and grew quickly. From ¥221 in 1981, the average value of the yen actually dropped to ¥239 in 1985.

When the Dow was 896, a US dollar bought 230 yen.

Today, 26 years later, January 1, 2009, a dollar buys about 90 yen. Imagine this. 2,300,000 yen purchased $10,000 in 1982 which grew to $95,000.   The $95,000 buys 8,550,000 yen.

The excellent Dow profit looks downright lousy, an increase of only 3.7 times in 26 years.  61% percent of all the Dow profit in the last 26 years has been lost due to US dollar erosion.  And the dollar’s fall will grow worse!

This is powerful profit knowledge…IF…you know what to.

US government debt has passed the short term point of no return.  Three bold steps were needed two decades ago, a reduction of entitlement costs (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.), reduced defense spending and a reduction of the existing debt.  The government moved in the opposite direction… in all three cases.

There are many ill omens as our new government still does not take this incredible problem seriously. The proposed new plans might cost trillions more. These are trillions that the US government does not have.  Nor are we likely to see any increases in tax revenues during the current economic downturn.

America must borrow to spend and the deeper the US debt, the greater the dollar’s fall.

The government’s refusal to create a plan to balance the budget shows no solution is in sight.  It is menacing to see how the government plans to spend more now.

The US Treasury only has 33 months left before a tsunami of expense rushes over  the government.   By the time (if ever) the government finally recognizes this problem, for most investors, it will be too late.  If it takes a terrible crash of the US dollar to finally wake the government, it could wipe out millions of families’ saving, capital and spending power in the process.

All these facts are omens of ill winds ahead.  There are already tens of millions of Americans who have been financially wiped out….but the worst has not even begun.

We will see hyper inflation, massive unemployment and a free fall of the greenback that will affect currencies and investing everywhere.  This crash will make the current downturn…even the last great 1930s depression look like a Sunday picnic.

You do not have to be alarmed because the resolution which I am about to share is so simple, anyone can act and can prepare for this disaster without inconvenience or trouble.

You do not have to participate in the great fall of the US dollar.  All you have to do is learn how to be a multi currency investor.

The time for international investing is right.  Global diversification has already created fortunes for a few sophisticated investors because this obvious problem of the US government debt actually makes it easier to make money, if you know how to invest abroad.

Let me explain why big problems can mean big profits, then let me explain why no one has been around to tell you how to invest abroad but why there is not a solution that can make multi currency investing totally easy for you.

First, let’s look at the big problem. It’s a sad reality that US government debt has actually been ruining US investments for over 40 years.  The big bankruptcy that’s coming is just the end.  The bankruptcy really started in 1971 and has been building steadily since.

Until 1971 the US dollar was the kingpin currency for the world.  Then it was “temporarily” suspended from the gold standard.  This “temporary” move, like our debt today, was ignored by the government. Since that time (the dollar was never reinstated to the gold standard), the buck has fallen and fallen. Though you may have read about a strong dollar lately, the reality of the greenback’s slide continues.

Don’t get me wrong, the dollar has not dropped every day.  It has enjoyed some short term rises over the past 37 years, but to see the real picture all you have to do is look at the dollar’s value in any major currency in 1971 and then look at its value today.

In 1972 for example the US $ was worth over 4.25 Swiss francs, 4.00 German marks and nearly 400 Japanese yen.  Today, as you can see from the yahoo.the same dollar has dropped as low as 1 dollar per Swiss franc, .65 euro (related to the German mark) and only 90 yen.  In other words, if you had $10,000 in 1971, it was worth about 4,000,000 yen.  If you invested those dollars safely clear back in the 1970s and earned a 4% compound return, by 2008 those dollars were worth over $40,000.  You might well feel the investment had gone well.

The sad truth is those $40,000 are now worth only 3,800,000 yen!  All US dollar investments have lost over 4% compounded each and every year for the past 22 years.  Your 4% return was a real loss by hard currency standards, but this loss has been hidden and the real facts about your wealth have been kept from you.

On the other hand, had you invested in Japan, Switzerland, Germany or most other major currencies, your investment would have tripled or quadrupled in dollar terms even before you started making profits!

There is another fact that is even more spectacular.  Most stock and bond markets abroad (in addition to the currency gains) have been better than in the US.

For example had you invested in the Dow in 1978, the ow was standing at 865. Today, mid December 2008 is is 8,500.  $10,000 invested in the Dow in 1978 would have grown to about $100,000…even after the global stock market crash.

Not bad?

If instead you had invested $10,000 in an investment as simple as the Templeton World Fund which started in 1978 and invests in stock markets al over the world, the $10,000…after the 2008 global crash…is still worth $352,080.

Look at the performance of bond markets as well.

Right now you receive 1.96% on the U.S. Treasury bonds that mature 2013.

Yet good quality Danish bonds of about the same term pay 4.53%  in Danish kroner.

Norwegian kroner bonds pay 3.70%
Swedish government bonds pay 2.74%
British Treasury bonds pay 3.18%
Mexican Government US dollar bonds 5.10%
Peru Government US dollar bonds 7.57%
South African bonds in euro pay 8.61%
Indonesian bonds in US dollars pay 11.57%
Hungarian Government Florin bonds 12.35%
Brazilian Government Real bonds 14.78%

Plus all of the currencies above (though depressed lately) have appreciated as much as 50% versus the dollar in recent years.

These statistics show how US government debt has invisibly, but relentlessly, destroyed the value of our investments in North America.  These statics come from my multi currency investment course, that can help you prosper even though the US dollar falls.

I’ll explain the course but first let me explain why, even though the US dollar has fallen so dramatically over the past 37 years, no one has been knocking on your door to tell you how to invest abroad.

It is the very weakness of the US dollar that has stopped North American banks, brokers and other financial institutions from telling you about the problem. These facts have been hidden from you because they have been afraid if US investors knew how bad the dollar has been that no one would deal with them.  They have, short and simple, been afraid of losing business.

Now let me tell you about this simple easy-to-use investment course called Multi Currency Investing  (MCI) and how you can have it on a no risk basis.

First, let me explain that the course is designed for anyone.  It is even for those who have never invested abroad, even if they are small investors with only a few thousand or a small amount to invest monthly.  MCI explains how investments can be made overseas for small amounts.  It even explains how to invest out of the US dollar right her in the US and never leave your home of office.

However, MCI also gives sophisticated information that you might not know even if you have been investing all over the world.  Some of my readers and course delegates are billionaires who own dozens of companies and invest all over the world!

Sleepy, Safe Portfolios Can Earn Over 100% Per Year

Multi currency investing does not require any fast trading techniques.  Multi currency portfolios are normally slow and sleepy investments…not currency contracts or futures speculations.  Most multi currency positions are aimed with a five year horizon…pretty sleepy compared to people who trade currencies (an entirely different and far riskier technique). For most of us, slow and sleepy mean SAFE!

Yet multi currency portfolios can be really profitable as well.

How sleepy and how safe?

Let’s look first at sleepy.

In 2006 we created an Asian multi currency portfolio consisting of just five award winning mutual funds.

We did not touch the entire portfolio for an entire year. Then after one year we made just five changes…dropping two mutual funds and adding three other mutual funds. Then we did not make another single change. That’s pretty sleepy, choosing a handful of mutual funds and making only five changes in two years.

Okay. Here is the big question. How profitable?

In the first year (2006) this portfolio rose 114.16%. Then we made the five changes mentioned (two funds dropped and three added). In 2007 this portfolio rose 122.62%.  2008 was a disaster year and the portfolio lost 79%. But when your portfolio is up over 236% in two years, it takes a lot of disaster to lose…so this portfolio is well ahead even after the great 2008 crash.

Year one up 114%
Year two up 122%
Year three down 79%

Total in three years…up 157% or an average of over 52% per annum for three years…even after the 2008 crash.

May I hasten to add that the portfolios published in the portfolio are not published recommendations.  These are portfolios we study to learn why they rise or fall. More on this in a moment.

First let’s examine safety.  How safe?

The portfolios were chosen with the help of one of the world’s safest banks and the mutual funds were all subsidiaries of that bank.

That safe bank is a Danish bank. That’s good because in recent years Denmark has been rated by Standard & Poor’s as one of the safest country in the world in which to bank.

The bank is Jyske Bank…well established with a history of over 100 years. Jyske is Denmark ’s second largest bank, with 450,000 clients in Denmark and over 30,000 abroad.

Jyske Bank has over 23 billion euros in assets and also happens to be one of the leading currency traders in the world. The Danes have always been big currency traders because as a small naval country surrounded by England, Sweden, Finland, Russia, Germany, Norway and other countries…they have always had to deal in many currencies.

This historically gained expertise means that unlike most banks (that trade only eight hours a day) Jyske maintains a 24 hour global currency and commodity dealer service. Many other large banks use Jyske to handle their off hour currency positions. This means that Jyske is huge when it comes to multi currency activity. In fact their turnover reaches $50 billion dollars a day.

Let’s address this issue of safety in more detail. Normally this is a pretty moot point. Right now everyone is concerned. Is a bank safe or not? I like Jyske from a bank safety point of view because there are three bank safety points, from the top down.

Bank Safety Point #1: A recent Yahoo Canada article shows a survey by the World Economic Forum listed five safest countries in which to bank.

Canada
Sweden
Luxembourg
Australia
Denmark

So Denmark is a safe place to bank. Now let’s look at Jyske Bank’s safety rating.

Bank Safety Point #2: Jyske Bank is Denmark’s second largest bank.
On October 10 2008, Moody’s affirmed Jyske Bank’s long-term Aa2 rating stable rating. This decision came despite the deteriorated economic prospects in Denmark, particularly in respect of the property market.

Bank Safety Point #3: Also on Friday 10 October 2008, the Danish Parliament passed a bill that secured all deposits and unsecured claims against losses in Danish financial institutions. The rating of the Kingdom of Denmark is Aaa/AAA with Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s respectively.

These are common sense bankers. They had minimal sub prime exposure when that scandal broke. Jyske had zero Madoff exposure.

That’s safe!

I happen to know Jyske Bank because I began using them (as my bank) over 20 years ago. They are one of the few banks that offers a special multi currency portfolio service for investors from almost anywhere in the world…including US investors through their Jyske Global Asset Management.

I was one of the first writers and publishers to begin writing about multi currency investing. Jyske bank was one of the first banks to offer a multi currency portfolio service…and they were my bank.

Not surprising we got together and have created a symbiotic relationship that can help you learn how to create multi currency portfolios that suit you.   Jyske Bank assists by providing information that only a huge global bank trading 50 billion dollars of currencies and contracts a day (as Jyske does) can afford.   My symbiotic relationship with Jyske allows me to combine my experience with this bank’s incredible knowledge, real time information capability and expertise so you learn in a most practical way from some of the greatest multi currency experts in the world.

Now let’s look at both the up and down side of these high performing portfolios and how they work?

The goal of MCI is not to recommend investments for you, but to help you learn how to be a multi currency investor so you are better at directing your broker,  banker or investment advisor.

To accomplish this goal, the course provides three levels of education.

Part one of MCI is an extensive beginner’s guide to developing multi currency portfolios.  This entire primer is sent to you when you begin the course.  This portion of the course takes nothing for granted and walks you step by step through every part of international investing.

Take, one of the primer lessons as an example. It explains theory on some of the reasons why currencies move, but taking nothing for granted it also explains what the currencies of the world are and gives their history, so before you learn why the euro doubled versus the US dollar, you get to know these currencies and the their underlying fundamentals.

Another lesson in the primer gives case studies that are real examples of how the theory has been put to use in the past.  This lesson covers theory on why currencies move and how to spot the hot currencies months ahead of time. Then it gets down to brass tacks and explains how to open bank accounts overseas to hold the hot currencies…or even how to invest abroad through US banks and brokers.

Everything about how to bank abroad and hold the currencies is covered.  How to open accounts, how to send money abroad all the laws relating to overseas accounts, taxation, etc. plus the most important part, which is how to spend the money when you need it from overseas accounts.

Then the course gives a real, live case study that show how the theory works in reality. It tells about an investor who opened an account, got a  checkbook and credit card and how he used them both and held several currencies for higher returns that he gained with US dollars.

Finally you also get valuable contacts in the course.  These are vitally important. There are names and addresses of institutions and source of information you can use to turn your knowledge into action!

Here is the syllabus of the primer you will receive in MCI.

* Why Currencies Move.

* How to Bank Abroad.

* How to Buy Stocks and Bonds Overseas.

* How to Choose Currencies.

* Why Currencies Rise and Fall.

* How to Borrow Low and Deposit High.

* How to Buy Mutual Funds That Invest Abroad.

* ETFS. Why They are Often Better Than Managed Funds.

* How to Find Bonds that are Like and Often Better than Shares

* How and When to Capture Recoveries.

* Global Portfolio Diversification Theory.

* When Leveraged Low Risk Portfolios Are Safer and Perform Better Than High Risk Portfolios.

The primer deals with the past…but as we so vividly saw in 2008…markets are always in a state of change so…

Part two studies global markets in real time.  Your MCI course comes in regular emailed lessons usually emailed every two or three days.  Though at times you’ll get a lesson every day for many days in a row. Other times nothing will come for a week because these lessons are based on real time market activity.  MCI studies currencies and global investment markets and reports to you on their value and why that value occurs.

This portion of the course studies the current performance of portfolios that Jyske bank creates…plus examines the portfolios of several globally diversified mutual funds….for both small and large investors.   This portion of your course gives you an overall, up-to-date understanding of market and currency moves.

Part three of MCI shares my portfolio and where I invest.  This is an unusual feature…so let me explain why MCI regularly reviews my personal investment portfolio and how this can be of value to your investing.

First this is honest.nd we have fund that for us…honesty pays.

As we recently learned from the Madoff scam…investors must always be on guard.  This is our 41st year of educating about international investing.  This is all we do and our great long term success has been based on placing our readers ahead of all other considerations.   We do not sell investments. We do not give individual advice.  We have no hidden agendas that could lead investments astray.

We want you to see and know what we are doing based on our own advice so you can trust the data we share.  Otherwise the lessons do little good.  You the reader are the only way we earn.  We do not receive commissions…or any form of remuneration for selling shares or accounts etc.   We hope to work with you for life…rather than make some type of quick killing by advising you to invest in something we d not really believe in.

We feel that by letting you know how we actually invest helps accomplish this long term bond.

This is vital because we often invest exactly the opposite of the market.

Take for example the five 2007 portfolios we studied in MCI:

Portfolios             12 Month Rise
Swiss Samba           53.32%
Emerging Mkt        122.62%
Dollar Short             48.19%
Dollar Neutral          38.67%
Green                    266.30%

This is performance you will rarely see duplicated…anywhere…at any time.

Yet these were model portfolios…not meant to be yours….not meant to be mine.  I do not invest in these portfolios because…they do not suit my lifestyle and my unique personal financial needs.  One of the key lessons that MCI focuses on…again and again is “there is no perfect portfolio for you”… except one designed uniquely for you.

My portfolio is not perfect for you either…yet seeing “how” I adapt my portfolio to our virtual real time portfolio reviews can help you learn how to adapt your personal portfolio  as well.

So even though our study portfolios were enjoying world class performance, exploding upwards like rockets,  I was reducing leverage and getting out of markets.  On August 17, 2007…well before the 2008 collapse began I posted the note in an MCI lesson on why I was getting out of leverage and equities.

“Such historical measures are so inexact that we cannot predict just from them what will happen in the short term. The numbers are close enough that we could be entering the fourth sub cycle down (similar to 1976 to 1978). If so expect a sustained drop in markets for two to three years.”

Even though the portfolios MCI studied continued to rise, I sent another danger lesson to the course on September 21, 2007. “Equity markets dropped again violently last month. Now these markets have recovered again. Yet this may be a last gasp party.”

I began increasingly concerned for myself and on October 14 sent this lesson  “Periods of high performance are followed by times of low returns. We never know for sure when an upwards cycle will stall. Fundamentals look good for a bright 2008 in emerging and equity markets, but this can change quickly so to give our readers a better perspective, this year we are reducing leverage and adding a sixth portfolio with no leverage to study”.

The Oct. 15, 2007 lesson said: “Okay it’s time to turn the burner down and offered a “leverage dwindling” warning.  On Oct. 26 I explained to readers that I had eliminated even my modest leverage and wrote: “There is a final reason I liquidated my leverage now…to lead by example. Too many readers are thinking that the dollar short or dollar neutral Portfolios are only up 38% or 48% for the year. When one thinks that way they could be headed for trouble, so I hope investors will follow my lead and take greater care with their leverage.”

I did not stop. The November 8, 2007 was a Black Friday interim message that warned again about all the points above and more.

This created one plain and simple fact.   The 2008 stock market crash drop did not surprise those enrolled in MCI.

Right now at the end of 2008, I am adding leveraged bonds to my portfolio. Here is an excerpt from the December 28, 2008 MCI lesson:

There are many similarities between the US economy and the US government’s response to the downturn with Japan’s slowdown in the early 1990s and the Japanese  government’s response then.   Readers made fortunes borrowing yen as they may make fortunes borrowing dollars now.

Watch especially now for ways to borrow dollars at low rates for investing in high yield, short term dollar bonds like:

Currency                      Bond                               Yield

USD    9.125   19/05/2009    SOUTH AFRICA     6.04%

USD    10.25   17/06/2013     BRAZIL REP OF     6.24%

USD     8.25     31/03/2010     RUSSIA                   5.93%

This type of bond has no currecny risk if leveraged in US dollars.  Your only major risk is default.

Bonds denominated in euro are even more to my liking because they pay higher interest and have a potential forex gain if the dollar drops again verus the euro.

Yet our lessons are objective and provide warnings of risk as well.  This type of leveraged investment also has a chance of loss if the dollar rises verus the euro. Do not borrow more than you can afford to lose!

There is even more yield potential in bonds denominated in euro.

EUR      5.75   02/07/2010     ROMANIA             10.81%

EUR    8.5     24/09/2012     BRAZIL REP OF      7.49%

EUR    5.25     16/05/2013     SOUTH AFRICA     8.61%

These three bonds yield an average 8.97%. They represent a diversification into Europe, Latin America and Africa.   If you invest $100,000 and also invest another borrowed $100,000 at 4%, your total annual return is 13.94%  before  any forex gains or loss.

MCI provides you with bank contacts who  lend in many currencies often at very low rates, to leverage investments.

Multi Currency Investing helps you enjoy the ultimate form of financial security.

From the very first lesson, you expand your knowledge about investing abroad.  You gain contacts that can bring you solid profits and safety when most investors are being silently robbed blind by the steady deterioration of the US economy and the US dollar.

I want to give my readers an answer to relieve the anxiety they faced from this awesome dollar problem that I don’t think is going to get solved.

I originally started this course just for my readers.  Tens of thousands enrolled and we have shared how to invest globally for deades.

Now due to the 2008 global economic crash, I am rewriting the entire course.  This
crash has changed everything and I would like to share how to profit in 2009 with you.

Everyone needs to know how to have multi currency diversification. But in case this course does not help you, we provide a 30 day “completely satisfied or your money back” guarantee that we have offered our hundreds of thousands of readers for more than 20 years.

Our Multi Currency Educational Service is normally a mere $249 for a very long and educational year!

Won’t you share this exciting world of wealth accumulation with us and our readers around the world?

Subscribe here or see below how to join us in Ecuador or North Carolina and receive this course FREE.

Gary Scott

P.S.   As previously mentioned, the portfolios we tracked in 2007 had the following results:

Portfolios             12 Month Rise
Swiss Samba           53.32%
Emerging Mkt        122.62%
Dollar Short             48.19%
Dollar Neutral          38.67%
Green                    266.30%

You can imagine performance like this attracted quite a bit of attention…and it did.

However these high returns were not the important benefit our readers gained.

MCI does not recommend nor manage portfolios.  We did not suggest that readers invest in these portfolios. We created and tracked them because they were educational.

The courses is designed so you can work with your own investment manager to create your own multi currency portfolio that suits your own special, individual needs.  The multi currency investment course is designed to help you learn how to manage your manager… nothing more.  Yet this is a lot because Jyske Bank can provide a stable and safe institution for those who wish to employ a multi currency strategy.

The course will help you guide  any investment adviser or investment manager who understands how to invest in more than one currency.

The course also helps you manage risk. The incredible portfolio performance above was achieved because the portfolios were leveraged using a tactic we call a multi currency sandwich. Investors borrow low and invest in yielding or growth portfolios. The portfolios used loans in Japanese yen and Swiss francs to magnify profits in good times.

Plus we learned how leverage pushes losses faster in bad times and that leverage can help recovery at the end of bad times as well.

Here is an interesting multi currency fact that provides us with a valuable investing idea.   In 2009 we are tracking three Jyske portfolios.

Low Risk Multi Currency Portfolio invests in:  Fixed Income 70%,  Equities 20%,  Alternatives 5%,  Cash 5%.

Medium Risk Multi Currency Portfolio invests in: Fixed Income, 40%,  Equities 50%,  Alternatives 5%, Cash 5%.

High Risk Multi Currency Portfolio invests in:  Fixed Income  10%, Equities 80%,  Alternatives 5%,  Cash 5%.

Our studies to date have shown that the low risk portfolio, with some leverage, can be safer and perform better than a non leveraged high risk portfolio.

MCI continually reviews these portfolios so we can earn real time from their performance.

Subscribe here or see below how to join us in Ecuador or North Carolina and receive this course FREE.

Here is what a few others from around the world have said about our services and reports on international investing.

“ Gary , I am a long time subscriber in various media, and while cleaning out my files today I found some old ‘Gary A. Scotts World Reports’. In particular, the April 1988 issue provided the info that made me over a million dollars. Just wanted to say a belated ‘thank you’ and please continue the excellent work. Warm regards,”
From an Unknown Reader

“Dear Gary, I would like to give thanks to you for introducing me to Jyske Bank two years ago.

“I have been a long-time client of Merrill Lynch, but am in the process of re-evaluating my relationship with the largest brokerage company in the world. My problem is that when I compare Merrill to Jyske, Jyske outshines Merrill (or other major U.S. brokerage firms) in most categories as follows:

“1) Even though Jyske is much smaller, it has a much more global perspective which is critical in an evermore global investment environment.

“2) In order to maximize their own individual revenue, the brokers at Merrill prefer to outsource the day-to-day management of their accounts to various fund managers and hence, ‘manage the managers’. In contrast, I can call my Account Manager at Jyske and he can discuss every aspect of my account in detail with me.

“3) I attribute this difference in #2 to the fact that Jyske’s employees are not compensation driven, but instead are focused on satisfying their customers. That is why Jyske’s clients stay with the Bank on average for 12 years, which is phenomenal by Wall Street standards.

“4) Jyske’s security is far more stringent than that of Merrill’s. In addition to the standard account code and password, to pass through Jyske’s security one has to enter a Key Card number and also a randomly-generated 4-digit number from said Key Card.

“5) Having an account offshore allows me to sleep better given the anxious times we live in. Since I report the existence of the account and pay all taxes due, I am fully compliant with the law. However, such an account gives me and my family a ‘financial life boat’ should events in our own country ever get out of hand.

“As Dorothy Parker once said, ‘You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them THINK’. Jyske is a thinking person’s bank. My only complaint is the time zone difference since I live in California . However, since I am an early riser and my Account Manager is very responsive to my emails, this problem is very small relative to the HUGE benefits.

“Again, many thanks for introducing me to Jyske Bank. Given the ‘dumbing down’ that occurs in the popular media today, your ezine and its recommendations are ever more important. Please continue your good work to enlighten your readership.  Warm regards,”
C.M. CALIFORNIA Businessman

“I was so overwhelmed with information I received I had to spend several days reading, sorting and filing it! I have decided to move my modest investment capital overseas.”
B.W. MONTREAL CANADA Professor

“Send me your report on safe banks lending at 7% for redeposit at 13% or more.” B.V. ADDIS ABADA ETHIOPIA Economic Commission United Nations

“A number of new and significant contacts were made. It would be extremely helpful if you could supply us with WORLD REPORTS.” I.M. TORONTO , CANADA Banker

“You are as good as your word which is rare these days. I look forward to attending one of your seminars.” C.K. GENEVA , SWITZERLAND Banker

“In spite of my marketing experience, your information really got me going!” M. C. LONDON, ENGLAND Marketing Consultant

“Thanks for the three reports. They are very interesting and should find many readers here in Japan .” M.A. Tokyo , JAPAN Computer Programmer

“I would like to say how much I enjoyed the information I received.” A.B. Providenciales TURKS & CAICOS Accountant

“First let me say how much we enjoyed the investment seminar.” W.J. SAUDI ARABIA Oil Engineer

“Once again thanks for all the great information.” G.K. PERTH , AUSTRALIA Insurance Executive

“Your letter of November 8th warned me to beware of the market just a week before the 120 point crash on November 15th!” T.G. N. CAROLINA Pilot”

Yet global economics 2008 have changed everything.   So I am now offering this course to a wider audience who have indicated their concern with the state of the US economy.

Before I make this offer to a wider audience however, I want to make a special December offer to you.

This course has been and is normally offered for $249.

To begin, I am reducing that price to $175…a savings of $74…yet there is much more because you can enjoy this course FREE.

You can enroll here…now and save $74

Here is how to receive this course FREE.

In 2009 I will work with Jyske Bank to conduct four  courses  about how to be a multi currency investor.

Two of these courses will be conducted in Ecuador

February 13 -15 and Nov. 6 to 8, 2009

The other two courses will  be conducted in North Carolina.

July 24-26 and  Oct. 9-11, 2009

Simply sign up for any of the four courses above and you receive the Multi Currency Course in 2009 FREE.

Cotacachi Morning


Our Cotacachi Ecuador economic tour continues this morning.

We start the day walking instead of talking…enjoying a hike in the fresh morning air. This is the wet season which means perfect, cool, sunny mornings with afternoon clouds and perhaps later rain.

This confuses many readers. If one looks at the Ecuador weather reports for Quito, Cotacachi and surrounds it seems to rain almost every day. This is true, it rains a bit many days. Thank goodness. Most days it is so sunny and clear and the sun so intense that without those clouds one would really burn. Learn more about this at Ecuador Weather.

I rise about 4:30, try to answer my email etc. before dawn,. Then Merri and I hit the street around 6am. This morning we were in a perfect position to watch the sun rise behind Mt. imbabrura.

ecuador-tours

This seemed appropriate because the course we are conducting is looking at how many opportunities are rising now.

On our way back we passed the local Cotacachi food store, a two story affair with a great mural from the Guayasamín school. This morning it was perfectly framed by Mt. Cotacachi in the background.

ecuador-tour

The 50+ delegates enjoyed breakfast in the hotel.

cotacachi-tours

Cotacachi loves art and there are murals everywhere in village, including in our dining room. Our mural depicts all the famous buildings in the village.

At 9 am we began speaking again. Delegates are getting seated and ready to go.

ecuador-tour

Here is Peter Laub from Jyske Global Asset Management talking about the current economic downturn.

ecuador-tour

One current condition that Peter and I reviewed was the current downturn in bonds around the world.

Some time back we reviewed at this site bonds issued by Bank TuranAlem (BTAS) the second-largest bank in Kazakhstan bank, formed in 1997 as a merger between two government-owned banks. This is a full-service bank with representative offices in Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, China, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Tajikistan and Armenia. The bank’s bonds are rated by Moody’s Ba1 and S&P: BB and it has government backing.

This bank has been offering many bonds in dollars and euro. Now while the bond market is in panic mode the yields are phenomenal.

Their 6.25% 27/09/2011 bond denominated in euro is being sold at 74.22 which creates a yield of 18.14%…in euro.

The bank has bonds in pounds yielding 36.46% and US dollars at 45.25%

You can see some of the bonds and their yields below.

GBP 7.125 21/12/2009 TURANALEM FIN BV 75.00 36.46%

USD 5.434 22/01/2009 TURANALEM FIN BV 92.75 45.25%

USD 7.875 02/06/2010 TURANALEM FIN BV 71.00 33.19%

USD 8.000 24/03/2014 TURANALEM FIN BV 50.49 25.37%

USD 8.5 10/02/2015 TURANALEM FIN BV 52.00 23.52%

Yields like this create an argumet for speculating in such bonds now.

See more about Bank TuranAlem at Multi Currency Investment Secrets.

There are plenty of other dollar, euro and pound bonds with exceptional yields now.
EUR 5.75 12/01/2009 FORD MOTOR CRED 92.52 53.63%

EUR 5.875 08/07/2013 HUTCH WHAM FIN 89.96 8.53%

EUR 8.465 15/05/2013 EUROPCAR GROUPE 43.00 34.10%

EUR 8.25 01/05/2016 NORDIC TEL CO HL 74.00 13.96%

We gave an in depth review of these bonds at the course.

Tomorrow learn about our coffee breaks and quinoa jello!

Until then may your Sunday be as bright as ours.

Gary

Join us at a course in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Jan. 16-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Jan. 22-23 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Jan. 24-27 Coastal Real Estate Tour

We’ll visit the Otavalo markets.

Ecuador-Project

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ
Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Cotacachi-meeting

Courses are centered around this open air courtyard in our colonial inn El Meson de las Flores.

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
March 10-15 Ecuador Export Expedition
March 16-19 Coastal Real Estate Tour

You are also invited to tag along to the beach where we visit all types of Ecuador beach property for sale. Here is one f our previous tours enjoying a visit to Vistazul condos.

Ecuador-Project

Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our entire schedule of 26 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009.

Multi Currency Seasoned Bond Yields


Multi currency seasoned bond yields offer special potential now.

One benefit of being aged 62, with 40+ years of global investing under the belt is that it is easier to spot rare opportunities that only come once in awhile, simply because I have experienced them before.

Current events in the multi currency seasoned bond market remind me of the last great credit crunch in the 1970s when you could earn high yields on multi currency bonds.

First, a quick primer on investing in seasoned multi currency bonds. A seasoned bond is a loan that was issued over six months ago. When that bond was issued, a currency, maturity date and (depending on the prevailing current interest rates at time of issue), an interest rate is set.

Take the US dollar GMAC Bond 6.875% 15/09/2011 as an example.

This means that General Motors Acceptance Corp. borrowed US dollars and promised to pay 6.875% interest until September 15, 2011 when it will repay the loan.

The bond, again depending on current interest rates and the credit rating of the company, was issued either at par or at a premium or discount.

If the bond was sold at par to begin, investors who invested $10,000 bought a $10,000 bond. If it was sold at a discount they paid less than $10,000 for a $10,000 bond. If there was a premium, investors paid more than $10,000.

Interest however is usually paid semi annually on $10,000 (though it can be quarterly or annually) so every six months (March and Sept.) the investor has received $343.75 (half the $687.50 which is 6.875% of $10,000).

This bond is seasoned because it is now offered for sale in the bond market…just like a share is sold on the stock market. However it is the interest rate, rather than potential dividend, that sets its fundamental price.

This GMAC bond above, as of September 2008, had three years until it matures (meaning when the $10,000 is paid back). Interest of $687.50 (6.875%) will be paid each year so this bond is worth in total $2,062 (6.875% interest) plus $10,000 (repaid in three years) or $12,062 over the three years. If interest rates rise to 7.5%, then the bond is worth less because a new bond offering 7.5% would be worth $12,250. The seasoned bond example would fundamentally be worth $188 less than a 7.5% bond. All other things being equal, the example seasoned bond above would sell at a discount price of about 99.

In other words, a new investor would only be willing to pay $9,900 for a $10,000 bond because $9,900 at 7.5% creates $742.50 a year of interest or $2,222.75. So the discount
makes up for the lower interest of 6.875% versus 7.500%.

That is the fundamental that drives bond prices…but just like shares, the market then has opinions based on the credit rating on how much interest rates will change, etc.
These opinions are based on the number of years to maturity, expected interest rate change and expected credit worthiness of the borrower. Just like shares on a stock market, bonds on the bond market are usually bought and sold for more or less than they are fundamentally worth based on a buyers and sellers differing opinion.

The same rule that applies to share markets applies to bond markets. “In the long term markets are efficient and can be trusted because they are ruled by fundamentals. In the short term, markets are unpredictable because they are ruled by human emotion.”

Right now bond markets appear similar where they were in the 1970s (when I made a killing by buying good quality bonds). It appears that the human emotion of fear has caused bonds to be oversold.

For example that US dollar 6.875% 15/09/2011 GMAC bond we used as an example above was for sale yesterday at 34.00. In other words an investor could have bought a $10,000 bond for $3,400. This created a yield potential of 54.27%. Investors would get back $12,062 over three years for an investment of $3,400. They nearly quadruple their money in three years.

This bond was used as an example but this lesson does not recommend this bond which has a junk bond credit rating.
The reason for this huge discount is that GMAC may not be able to repay the $10,000 in three years. Investors may lose part or all of their investment . Buying this bond is a speculation. Most of us should leave it to the gamblers and pros.

However, wise investments are available in better quality discounted seasoned bonds.

The current credit crisis has the corporate-bond market spiraling down. Corporate
bonds with low credit rating (like the GMAC above) have dropped by massive amounts. But also more secure, safer corporate bonds with a higher rating have been hit hard as well and are available at big discounts.

The spread on European euro denominated BB- rated corporate bonds has, for instance, increased sevenfold compared to the spread in the spring of 2007.

The euro spread is the extra interest earned above what a top quality major market government bond Such bonds are considered a baseline of safety. Risk premium is measured by how much more a bond will yield than these safest bonds.

The chart below shows that in 2007 investors could earn 3% more than the safest bonds. Now they can earn 7% more.

multi-currency-bond-spread

This large sell-off in reasonably safe bonds is due to investors’ search for liquidity. This falling price on these better credit corporate bonds creates a golden opportunity for long-term investors.

Take for example, a Gazprom bond denominated in euro with a 7.8% coupon (interest rate) that matures 27-09-2010 (September 27, 2010). This bond in the energy sector has a A3 / BBB but is selling at the discounted price of 97.50 which creates a 9.2% yield or 6.03% over the safety baseline.

All investments have risk…now more so than in most times. The key to good investing is to make sure you are paid an adequate premium for taking the risk.

As we look at examples above and below, remember that rates change continually so earnings an investor can actually make, may be more or less depending on rates at the time of investment.

In the Gazprom example above, a €9,750 investment on September 27, 2008 returns €11,840 over two years. €1,840 in interest and €10,000 in maturity September 27, 2010.

Let’s now look at a US dollar example of a Gazprom bond.

The 7.93% June 28, 2013 Gazprom issue is offered at the discounted price of 82.25. his creates a yield of 13.08% which is a premium of 10.64% over a US Treasury bond. Investors would pay $8,225 for the $10,000 bond in this example. The bond would then pay $793.30 per annum interest through June 2013. In 4.5 years this is a total interest earning of $3,600. Plus the bond, at maturity returns $10,000 or a total return. This creates a total return of $13,600 on the $8,225 investment. Over the four and a half years the total profit is $5,375 on $8,225 invested or 65.34% (about 14.52% per annum).

This is an excellent return for investment grade bonds.

In addition investors with $100,000 to invest can create a multi currency sandwich by borrowing up to one time the investment. US dollar loan interest is in the 4% range.

Imagine the example of an investor who invests $100,000 in December 2008, (used to make the calculation an easier 4.5 years, Dec. 2008 to June 2013) plus borrows $100,000 and invests the entire $200,000 into bonds of this type.

Assuming this same discount prevailed at that time, $200,000 would buy about $242,000 of such bonds at the discounted $82.25 price. The total interest earned from the bonds from now to June 2013 would be about $86,350 minus an interest cost of $18,000. This leaves $68,350 of net interest earned.

Plus of course $242,000 is paid back at bond maturity. The loan repayment would be $100,000 leaving $142,000. The total earnings on the original $100,000 invested would be $68,350 plus $142,000. The investor gets $210,350. This is a total net profit of $110,350 above the original $100,000 invested. This is a 110.35% total return or about 24.52% per annum over the 4.5 years.

There is no currency risk in the loan because it is in US dollars and the investment is in dollars as well.

What are the risks?

One risk is that the interest rate on the loan could rise. In this case you would normally just sell bonds to pay off the loan if the interest rate of your loan rose higher than your yield.

However there is another risk…normally one so remote we would barely mention it. With such short term bonds the capital value of good and even medium risk borrowers would hardly ever fall, unless there was some special corporate misfortune. Never would we expect all investment grade bonds to lose much capital value.

These are not normal times though. This is why we may never see such a guaranteed profit potential with such a low risk again.

However in the short term, if liquidity continues to tighten the yield on such bonds could rise even more and their capital value fall further. Be sure to review your liquidity needs with your investment advisor. You do not want to be caught having to sell at the wrong time. Plus if you leverage though a loan…never leverage more than you can afford to lose.

In a real time situation investors would also normally diversify into more than one bond for greater portfolio stability.

I have been sending my Multi Currency Course subscribers a seven chapter report about the bond potential now. This report contains a review of many bond recommendations. You can have this report as a multi currency subscriber. Learn more about how to subscribe to our multi currency course.

You can invest in the bonds mentioned above via Jyske Bank (American investors can use Jyske Global Asset Management JGAM).

I just finished a long meeting with Thomas Fischer at JGAM to review the updated services that JGAM. JGAM now has an advisory service so US investors can invest in multi currency seasoned bonds. Based on what I learned about the new services Jyske offers Americans, I am personally investing $1 million in a new program to help my multi currency course subscribers understand how to use these services.

You learn how to use this million dollar program when you subscribe to our multi currency course.

Jyske Bank’s Safety Rating

Jyske Bank is Denmark’s second largest bank and I have worked with them for over 20 years. They are my main bankers and investment advisors and have in depth multi currency investment experience.

On October 10 2008, Moody’s affirmed Jyske Bank’s long-term Aa2 rating stable rating. The affirmation of the ratings reflects Jyske Bank’s strong domestic retail and commercial banking franchise, current good asset quality, strong capitalization, and strong risk management. This decision came despite the deteriorated economic prospects in Denmark, particularly in respect of the property market.

New Danish Government Bank Guarantee

Also on Friday 10 October 2008, Jyske confirmed that it had no exposure to Iceland debt. In addition the Danish Parliament passed a bill that secured all deposits and unsecured claims against losses in Danish financial institutions. The agreement was designed to reassure both depositors and the banking community. It is up to each bank to decide to join the new guarantee scheme. Jyske Bank announced that it will join the new government guarantee scheme. During the two-year programme, banks cannot issue dividends, make share buy-backs or establish or renew share option schemes for managers. The rating of the Kingdom of Denmark is Aaa/AAA with Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s respectively.

For more details on how to buy multi currency seasoned bonds at Jyske bank aand JGAM contact:

US investors contact Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors contact Rene Mathys at mathys@jbpb.dk

Until next message, may your multi currency investing bond with high profits.

Gary

There is great beauty here in the Blue Ridge as the leaf change begins to take hold. Here is my front yard view now.

multi-currency-purpose

The salmons and gold mean its time to think SOUTH, WARM and SUNNY. This will be my Cotacachi Ecuador view soon.

Join Merri, me, Steve, Kjetil Haugan and Peter Conradsen of Jyske Global Asset Management in Cotacachi Ecuador. We’ll review economic conditions, Ecuador real estate, my entire portfolio, seasoned bonds and investing and business ideas for the months ahead.

Our delegates have a great time as they learn. Here is last week’s group enjoying an organic wine and cheese reception after the course at Bohemia Gallery and Cafe in West Jefferson North Carolina.

multi-currency-seminar-delegates

Nov 7-9 2008 International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/international-business-made-ez-ecuador

Stay on for the real estate tour Cotacachi and surrounding areas. See wonderful condos like this for sale at $46,000 in Cotacachi.

multi-currency-Ecuador-condos

Nov 10-11 Cotacachi-Imbabura Real Estate tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-real-estat

Then travel to the coast. See Vistazul condos like this for $89,000.

Ecuador-beach-condo

With this clubhouse view.

Picture 9

November 12-15, 2008 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour; Quito Real Estate Tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-coastal-real-estate-tour

See discounts for two or more of these courses and tours

Multi Currency Bank Risk


Multi currency investing and multi currency banks reduce risk.

During this current credit crisis, it makes sense to pay attention to ways to bank risk as well as investment and multi currency risk.

Eleven US banks have failed in 2008, seven of them since mid July.

Now a Warren Buffett owned insurance company has stopped insuring bank deposits above the federal $100,000 guarantee. This withdrawal of insurance shows that many insurers and bankers are worried about future bank failures.

One of many reasons I have banked with Jyske Bank (beyond the fact that they are multi currency experts) for many years is their strong safety ranking.

I like the fact that Denmark has ranked high in Moody’s and other country ratings as one of the safest countries in which to bank.

However, recently one Danish Bank had problems.

Thomas Fischer at Jyske Bank sent me this note in July 2008:

“Hi Gary, I just want to keep you informed that this morning Roskilde Bank (a Danish regional bank) had to ask the Danish Central Bank for support. It is the 9th largest Danish bank and it has been hit hard as it has been involved in the Danish real estate market. The share dropped 45% this morning. Some other smaller regional banks have seen their share prices falling between 10-20%. Jyske Bank has dropped 1.3% The Central Bank will probably put Roskilde Bank up for sale either the entire bank or parts thereof. The bank will not be allowed to collapse and the clients are thus not going to lose any money but it is obvious not good timing to get a situation like this. Thomas”

Thomas was correct and shortly after the Globe and Mail reported:

COPENHAGEN — Denmark’s central bank unveiled an $896.8-million U.S. bailout of Roskilde Bank acting to confine the negative effect of the struggling bank on the Danish financial system. The central bank stepped in after Roskilde, Denmark’s eighth-largest retail bank by market share, failed to receive any offers after putting itself up for sale in the face of bigger than expected writedowns on real estate loans.

The article outlined that Roskilde was extraordinary as a Danish bank in
that it was heavily exposed to the property sector and that other Danish banks in general were well prepared in a deteriorating Danish economic situation.

The Danish Central Bank had no expectations of any other banks suffering
similarly.

In fact a June 2008 report from Denmark’s National Bank says:

Denmark’s domestic and foreign central-government debt has the highest rating from Standard & Poor’s (AAA), Fitch Ratings (AAA) and Moody’s
(Aaa). Standard & Poor’s, Fitch Ratings and Moody’s affirmed the rating
in September 2007, December 2007 and April 2008 respectively with an
unchanged stable outlook.

Analytical reports and specific ratings on individual government secu-
rities are available on the websites of respectively Standard & Poor’s
(www.standardandpoors.com), Fitch Ratings (www.fitchratings.com) and
Moody’s (www.moodys.com).

Jyske Bank also ranks well on its own and has a stable outlook at this time. unlike most major banks. Here are current rankings:

Bank Rating Outlook
Jyske Bank A+ Stable
Citigroup AA- Negative
Deutsche Bank AA- Negative
Goldman Sachs AA- Negative
JP Morgan Chase AA- Negative
Credit Suisse A+ Negative
Lehman Brothers A Negative
Morgan Stanley A+ Negative
UBS AA- Negative

As can be seen, Jyske Bank is doing well. Jyske is the only bank on the list with a stable outlook. All others are on the watch list for down-grading.

Note that Jyske Bank has the same rating as Morgan Stanley but a better outlook.

Jyske Bank’s rating is better than Lehman (after today probably much better), the same as Credit Suisse and one grade below the others. However, it’s very seldom that S&P give a rating above A+ for a relatively small bank like Jyske Bank. The other banks on the list benefit from their size but this does not tell much about how well they are run.

If you have any questions on how Jyske Bank you can see the bank’s home page www.jyskebank.dk/english and read the latest semi-annual report.

US investors should contact Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors should contact Rene Mathys mathys@jbpb.dk

The thousands of other reasons I like Jyske are the people that work there.

An article at scienceblog.com entitled “Happiness is rising around the world” says that Danes are the happiest people in the world.

The article says:

People in most countries around the world are happier these days, according to newly released data from the World Values Survey based at the University of Michigan Institute for Social Research.

During the past 26 years, the World Values Surveys have asked more than 350,000 people how happy they are, using the same two questions.

Data from representative national surveys conducted from 1981 to 2007 show the happiness index rose in an overwhelming majority of nations studied.

The 2007 wave of the surveys also provides a ranking of 97 nations containing 90 percent of the world’s population. The results indicate that Denmark is the happiest nation in the world and Zimbabwe the unhappiest. The United States ranks 16th on the list, immediately after New Zealand.

Economic growth, democratization and rising social tolerance have all contributed to rising happiness, with democratization and rising tolerance having even more impact than economic growth. All of these changes have contributed to providing people with a wider range of choice in how to live their lives—which is a key factor in happiness.

“The results clearly show that the happiest societies are those that allow people the freedom to choose how to live their lives,” Inglehart said.

As an example, Inglehart points to the tolerant social norms and democratic political systems in Denmark, Iceland, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Canada all of which rank among the 10 happiest countries in the world.

In my opinion this happiness shows through at Jyske. Our dealings have always found the staff to be helpful, cheerful and willing to take an extra step to help make us as their customer happy as they are

Until next message, may you be happy too.

Gary

Join me and Thomas Fischer from Jyske Global Asset Management in North Carolina to learn more about economic trends.

International Investing and Business Made EZ North Carolina

We’ll have lunch at the farm and enjoy the leaf change.

farm colors

Thomas Fisher speaking to our delegates at the farm.

seminar-roses

orange-roses

multi-currency-meeting

Delegates enjoying a private conversation with Thomas Fischer during a coffee break at the farm.

This is the most beautiful time of the year on the Blue Ridge.

multi-currency-meeting-in-autumn