Tag Archive | "major stock markets"

Green Investments Update


Investing in Green Investments has been created great success in recent years.

Big problems create big opportunity.  There are few problems the world faces as big as protecting the environment.  This problem creates huge profit potential in green investments.

Plus the risk of a new terrorist EMP attack could create a new international investment era that accelerates green investment potential especially in the field of non grid alternative energy.

We have proven the potential of green investments with our Green Portfolio that rose 266.30% in the first year (2007 to 2008) that Jyske Bank’s staff created and we tracked.

Now the same staff sends this thought:

There is a lot of focus these days on the climate changes and  the “Green Energy” solution.  Our capitol Copenhagen will actually host the UN Climate Change Conference (COP15) in December 7-18th 2009.

US President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao have committed themselves to strive for a wide consensus and a successful Copenhagen climate change conference. According to Xinhuanet, both parties expressed the wish that the two countries should set up common targets and carry out constructive, practical cooperation in developing clean energy and addressing climate changes.

Countries in Asia have been using a large part of their stimulus packages on “Green solutions.”   South Korea has spent up to 79% and China has used 34% of the above stimulus package on investments in green technology. They have at the same time announced, that they intend to be a leading player in Energy Technology.  At the same time India is investing massively in solar and wind energy.

Therefore, these investments in “Green Energy” will be a driving force on future growth in the area.

We believe that the “climate aspect” has to be integrated into future investments, and that such a strategy can offer good returns.

We suggest investing in iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index.
This ETF aims to track the S&P Global Clean Energy Index and offers exposure to 30 of the largest publicly listed companies around the world that are involved in clean energy related businesses. The index is comprised of a diversified mix of Clean Energy Production and Clean Energy Technology and Equipment Providers companies.

We recommend an allocation as below:

If you have a Low Risk profile                  : up to 5%
If you have a Medium Risk profile             : up to 8%
If you have a High Risk profile                 : up to 10%

iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index. is traded on the New York Stock Exchange (code ICLN).

This ETF tracks the S&P Global Clean Energy Index and generally invests at least 90% of its portfolio in shares that are in the index.

US investors can get more information from Thomas Fischer of Jyske Global Asset Management at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors should contact Rene Mathys of Jyske Bank at mathys@jbpb.dk

The top shares held in this ETF are:

VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS A/S 5.68%
COVANTA HOLDING CORP 5.28%
EMPRESA NAC ELEC-CHIL-SP ADR 5.15%
CIA PARANAENSE ENER-SP ADR P 5.07%
FIRST SOLAR INC 5.06%
SOLARWORLD AG 5.05%
IBERDROLA RENOVABLES 4.88%
GAMESA CORP TECNOLOGICA SA 4.77%
EDP RENOVAVEIS SA 4.72%
RENEWABLE ENERGY CORP AS 4.70%

The fund currently holds 25.51% of its portfolio in US shares and the balance in:

China 16.24%
Spain 14.37%
Germany 13.62%
Denmark 5.68%
Chile 5.15%
Brazil 5.07%
Norway 4.70%
France 3.82%
Australia 3.35%

Here is a sector breakdown of the fund.

green-investment-chart

Average Annualized Total Returns since inception is  -35.08% compared to the index being down -36.40%

Here is a chart of performance since inception at www.finance.yahoo.com

green-investment-chart
The current Price to Earnings Ratio is 23.39 and Price to Book Ratio 2.32.

The management fees are 0.48% of assets.

Big problems create big opportunity and the risk of a new terrorist EMP attack generates a bigger problem that could create a new international investment era and extra profits with green investments.  The S&P Global Clean Energy Index may gain extra profit from this fact.

Gary

Join us at our upcoming courses and tours on international and green investments.

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

December 6-8 Blaine Watson’s  Beyond Logic & Shamanic Tour

December 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

December 11-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Join us in 2010.   Attend more than one seminar and tour and save even more plus get the three emailed courses free.

Our multi seminar-tour discounts have grown!  See the 2010 winter schedule below.  To Enroll click below.

1 real estate tour  $499 Couple $749

2 seminar courses & tours $949 Couple  $1,399

3 seminar courses & tours   $1199 Couple  $1,749

4 seminar courses & tours   $1,399 Couple $2,149

5 seminar courses & tours  $1,599 Couple $2,499

(Be sure to show in the comments section which courses and tours you are attending)

International Club attend up to 52 courses and tours in 2010 free.

Jan.   8-11     Ecuador Export Tour ($499) Couple $749
Jan. 13-14     Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Jan. 16-17     Coastal Real Estate Tour
Jan. 19-20    Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour
Jan. 22-23    Cuenca Real Estate Tour

Feb. 11-14   Quantum Wealth Florida -International Investing & Internet Business, Mt. Dora, Florida ($749) Couple $999
Feb. 15-16   Travel to Quito and Andes
Feb  17-18   Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Feb. 20-21  Coastal Real Estate Tour
Feb. 23-24  Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour
Feb. 26-27  Cuenca Real Estate Tour

Mar. 11-14     Super Thinking + Spanish Course, Mt. Dora, Florida ($749) Couple $999
Mar. 15-16    Travel to Quito and Andes
Mar. 17-18     Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Mar. 19-20    Cotacachi Shamanic Tour
Mar. 22-23    Coastal Real Estate Tour
Mar. 25-26    Cuenca Real Estate Tour

See our entire 2010 seminar and tour schedule here

International Investments Major Market Valuations August 2009


Here are details about International Investments Major Market Valuations for August 2009.

At our July 2009 international investing seminar, we reviewed the Dow’s previous 16 year down cycle which ran from February 1966 through August 1982.

international-investing-seminar

Here are delegates  at a local winery for a wine tasting after the course.

During that seminar we saw that in the first 12 years of that period, 1966 to 1977, the Dow dropped 1% overall  in 135 months.

Then we compared the similar period in the current Dow downside which is from  1998 until May  2009. The Dow had also dropped 1% in 135 months.

Then we looked at three charts comparing the Dow’s performance over various two year periods  to the period July 2007 to July 2009.

We viewed how the Dow appears to be entering the 12th year of a 15 to 17 year down cycle that began in 1998.  We compared the last two years of this cycle, with the equivalent period in the 1966 to 1982 bear cycle.

We saw an amazing 93% correlation between then and now.

The chart below from Moore Research compares the Dow from 1976 through 1978 with the same time to July 2009.  The Blue line is what happened in the equivalent period in the 1970s to now.

global-trends

Then we looked at what might happen in the next two years.  Ignore the black line which shows the Dow for the last two years. This should not correlate with the next two years period.

This suggests that in the next two years, we’ll see a lot of sideways motion with some severe drops.

The next chart suggests that between 2011 and 2014 we’ll see even more severe drops. Again ignore the black line.  This represents the Dow over the last two years and  has no bearing on these periods.

The blue line is what history suggests the Dow might act in the years ahead.

dow-chart

Down… down… down… until late in the two year period when the bull finally begins.

Then the bull trend continues over the next two years.

dow-chart

According to our 35 + or –  year wave theory some great new innovation should come along around 2014 and ignite the next 15 to 17 year bull in 2013 or 14.  The steam won’t really pick up till about 2016… or even a bit later.

This will be good news for retiring boomers who manage not to be wiped out from the next half decade of sideways and downwards motion.

This led us in the seminar to see seven places to invest now.

Value Markets for the long term
Multi Currency Spread
Emerging Markets for the long term
Wellness
Water
Alternate Energy
Real Estate

This message focuses on value markets and reviews Michael Keppler’s just released three month Major Market Value Analysis.

If you are a new reader learn about Keppler Asset management here.

Keppler wrote:

In my Spring 2009 edition, I wrote that Benjamin Graham’s margin of safety indicates that much better times may lie ahead for global equity investors. I was not aware, however, that such a powerful turnaround was underway. After seven consecutive negative quarters, global equity markets had in the second quarter 2009 their sixth best return since inception of the MSCI Indices at the end of 1969. The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1984=100) advanced 16.5 % in local currencies, 20.7 % in US dollars and 14.3 % in euros.

All markets covered here advanced in the second quarter. Singapore (+39 %), Hong Kong (+35.8 %) and Spain (+29.3 %) performed best last quarter.

The United Kingdom (+10.2 %), Australia (+10.3 %) and Switzerland
(+11.2 %) had the lowest returns.

During the first half of the year, sixteen markets advanced and two markets
declined.

Hong Kong (+35.1 %), Singapore (+33.4 %) and Sweden (+23.8 %) fared best. Germany (-1.5 %).

The United Kingdom (-1.3 %) and Switzerland (+0.5 %) came in at the bottom of the performance range.

The Top Value Model Portfolio based on the Top Value Strategy using national MSCI country indices as hypothetical investment vehicles, finished the second quarter 2009 at +21.9 % in local currencies,  (+30 %) in dollars and +23.1 % in euros outperforming the benchmark by 5.4, 9.3 and 8.8 percentage points,
depending on the currency.

Year-to-date, the Top Value Model Portfolio is up 13.3 % in local currencies,     17.8 % in US dollars and 16.7 % in euros. These results exceed the benchmark returns by 8.5, 11.4 and 11.3 percentage points in local currencies, US dollars and euros, respectively.

There were two changes in our performance ratings last quarter: Hong Kong and Belgium were downgraded to “Sell” from “Buy”.

The Top Value Model Portfolio currently contains the following six “Buy” rated countries at equal weights: Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

Our current ratings suggest that these markets offer the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted returns.

Last quarter, I showed our implicit 3 to 5 year return projections of 27.8 % p.a. for the equally weighted World Index. The projections stood at their all-time high at the end of March 2009. The equally weighted World Index better
represents the global equity environment than the cap.-weighted MSCI World Index with its 48.5 percent weight in US stocks. After having risen 19.4 % last quarter, the equally weighted World Index now stands at 1,816.9.  During
the last three months our expectation of the index level in 3 to 5 years declined from 4,055 to 3,852, which in combination with the strong price appreciation over the last three months leads to a drop of our current estimates of the annual price appreciation over the next 3 to 5 years to 20.7 percent.

dow-chart

I show these numbers with the usual caveats: Forecasts are dangerous, particularly those about the future.

Keppler’s analysis shows that low value markets are: Canada, Belgium,  Denmark, Hong Kong, Switzerland and USA.

Neutral value markets are Australia, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Spain and Sweden.

It is interesting to show that Keppler’s projections for value investments shows appreciation into 2014.

History however suggests that equity investments may be subject to a lot of turmoil for the next few years. The down periods will create exceptional value if you can ride though the storm and hold on medium to long term. The volatility will also create some trading opportunities for those who are qualified to buy and sell shorter term.

I am especially cautious now. See why at International Investments Warning.

You can see several ideas on what to do now at our password protected site as a Multi Currency Portfolios Course subscriber.

Gary

Join us in Ecuador and learn Super Thinking.

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Join Merri me and Thomas Fischer of JGAM in North Carolina this October and enroll in our emailed multi currency course free. Save $175.

Learn more about global investing, how to have an international business and early retirement in Ecuador.

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

The Balance of our 2009 course and tour schedule.

Learn how to import Ecuador roses.

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.