Tag Archive | "Latin America"

Ecuador Wills


Ecuador wills do not work if challenged.

We’ll look at some important information about Ecuador wills and Ecuador’s legal system in a moment.

Plus see below how asset protection benefits in the LLC you use may have changed.

Here is a group of indigenous farmers that our foundation Land of the Sun (LOTS) is helping.  They created a mingo (working circle) to clean out their water system that feeds a school that LOTS is helping to renovate.  Merri and I and some friends visited to check on their progress.

Ecuador-wills

Everyone works, men…

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women…

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young…

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and old.

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Well… not everyone works.

Ecuador-wills

But everyone gets involved in helping. Here is our hotel manager Franklin Sandoval conferring with the head of the village.

Ecuador-wills

I mentioned our foundation here  because it helps us gained fulfillment in our business, plus creates tax and asset protection benefits plus is part of our estate planning to make sure that the people of Ecuador are helped even after we pass.

Making sure that your assets held abroad are protected and properly conveyed in your estate requires extra planning.

Yet many Ecuador Living subscribers have been buying real estate or are moving to Ecuador without giving thought to the added complexity in their estate plans and other legal requirements.

I strongly suggest that you review you entire estate with both a local and Ecuadorian attorney. Here are some excerpts from an Ecuador Living report on why.

The Western world operates on two systems of law, the civil law of ancient Rome, and the common law of England.  These two systems have a lot in common, yet in many important areas they differ.

These differences can create legal conflicts in contracts, wills, trusts, parental rights and even residency.

The passing of wealth to heirs for example is one area that differs.

Few people coming from North America (which operates under a British common Law system), understand that US, Canadian or Ecuador wills do not work in Ecuador if challenged.

Many legal systems have evolved from The Roman civil code.  The Napoleonic Code is the French version, established under Napoléon I in 1804.  The Napoleonic code was not the first legal code to be established in a European country with a civil legal system though. The Codex Maximilianeus bavaricus civilis was reated in Bavaria arund 1756).  The Allgemeines Landrecht formed in Prussia, around 1794.  The West Galician Code,  began in part of Austria around 1797.

Many of the civil codes in Latin America are based on an original work derived from the French code and Castillan law.  Chile was the first to accept this type of legal system in 1855.  Ecuador followed in 1858.  El Salvador,  Venezuela,  Nicaragua, Honduras, Colombia and Panama are other countries with a legal system based on this foundation.

In this Ecuador legal system, the will is called the testament and allows the testor to direct the disposal, in whole or in part, of their property, upon death.   The testor retains the right to revoke the provisions in the testament anytime during his or her life.

However there is a difference in common and civil law as to what is a person’s property is.   In most civil codes, the wife automatically owns half of all property unless otherwise  stipulated in a formal way. The children own the other half.  Period. A will cannot supersede this fact.

If a person’s will leaves all of his or her property to his or her spouse, the will works fine UNLESS the children contest the will. If they do the testament will not be valid.

This can create complications in simple circumstances.  If the circumstances become complicated… for example children from two or more marriages… then problems could mount.  There is even a concern in my mind that a surviving spouse could lose investor residency status if the inheritance falls below required minimums.    A spouse could lose residency and a house!

In a common law country a person can write a will on a scrap of paper, throw it in a drawer (not advised) and that may be enough.  Though it also might not.  In a civil code jurisdiction such a will definitely will not work!

So if you create a will in Ecuador and then write another later… be sure to make the change official. Otherwise the new will may not work.

In a common law legal system wills do not have to be recorded and often the act of writing a new will allows the new document to supersede the old.

Ecuador’s Act reforming the Civil Code, of August 17, 1989 updated a number of areas relating to  covers relationships between a children and their parents, marriage, divorce, the status of wives, marital property and marital agreements.

Having an attorney to help you with estate planning in every country where you hold property makes sense…  especially if  two of the countries have different legal systems.

The US attorney we use is our friend (and trustee of LOTS) Joe Cox.

Joe’s firms specializes in cross border tax and estate planning, asset protection and real estate.

He provides an incredible system called The Strategic Snapshot which is an easy to use, color coded visualization of a person’s structures, corporate entities, estate plan and assets. We use the snap shot and have found it incredibly useful in seeing how everything from a legal point of view should fit.

You can ask Joe about the Strategic Snapshot at  jcox@coxnici.com.

Joe’s law firm also provides an excellent estate planning newsletter that I read regularly.

A recent letter at his archive shows how and says:

Conversion to Manager-Managed LLC Format

Many individuals concerned with asset protection have formed a Limited Liability Company (“LLC”) in an effort to protect their assets. In fact, most people do not know that Florida was the second state in the United States to draft LLC legislation (dating back to 1982). Most LLCs we see in our daily practice have been formed as member-managed LLCs, that is, when the members (i.e., owners) of the LLC control and manage the LLC as well. However, due to recent changes in the law regarding LLCs, we are now recommending that any Member-Managed LLC be converted into a Manager-Managed LLC format.

The intent of this recommendation is to increase the creditor protection of the LLC should the Member be involved in a lawsuit.

For example; under a Member-Managed LLC, if a creditor of the Member is able to obtain the LLC membership units (by court order, for example), the creditor could obtain management rights and make decisions for the LLC. At least one recent court ruling (from Colorado) makes this result a possibility. However, under a Manager-Managed LLC format, the Manager retains control of the management of the assets held by the LLC even if someone else “controlled” the LLC membership units.

In a Manager-Managed LLC, an elected Manager (pursuant to the Operating Agreement) manages the LLC. Note, that an existing member can act as the initial Manager of the LLC, and an independent Manager can be elected at a later time, if desired. Under a Manager-Managed LLC format, if a member was successfully sued, and the creditor obtained the member’s LLC membership units, the Manager could withhold distributions from all Members and the creditor would receive nothing. This result could deter a potential creditor from filing an unjustified or otherwise frivolous claim.


Plus Joe’s website offers an easy to use internet questionaire. See Questionaire.

We live in a complicated world often made more frustrating by the legal system.  Legal systems are problematic enough when one lives and resides in one country.   Difficulties can compound when living and or holding assets in two countries or more… especially if both legal systems…common and civil become involved.  So get an attorney and get advice so you, your spouse and your heirs never find your results uncivil.

The text above is an excerpt from a more complete report sent to Ecuador Living subscribers that describes Ecuador legal system, how to create wills there and provides legal contacts in the US, Canada and Ecuador that can help.

Learn how to subscribe here.

Regards,

Gary

Join us in Ecuador at a 2009 course or tour.

Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour May 16-17. $499 Enroll here.   $749 For a couple.

Imbabura-Cotacachi Real Estate Tour May 20-21.  $499 Enroll here.  $749 For a couple.

Ecuador Amazon Herbal Tour May 22-24.  $399 Enroll here. $499 For a couple.

Take Two for One. Attend any of the three international business & investing courses below and select any one of the tours above free.

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina + Tangled Web

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina + Tangled Web

Nov. 6-8  IBEZ Cotacachi + Tangled Web

Sign up for our three May 2009 tours and attend any of the IBEZ Cotacachi + Tangled Web seminar above FREE.

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two.

Learn about our July 2009 Ecuador export tour 2-4-1 deal here.

See our full 2009 schedule here.

May 29-31  JGAM Multi Currency investment Seminar Naples Florida

June 12-14 Shamanic Mingo Tour
June 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
June 18-21 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 3-6 Ecuador Import Export Expedition
July 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
July 10-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Cotacachi Culture


Cotacachi culture offers many opportunities for those of us who live in Cotacachi.

Many readers ask, “what is there to do in Cotacachi?”

There are many wonderful cultural events in Cotacachi such as the Casa Dansa event that our Cotacachi import export course enjoyed last week.

Cotacachi-culture

Dancers and singers were represented from three countries. Mexico, Venezuela and Peru.  This dancer was terrific in his Aztec regalia.

Here was an amazing performer from Peru.

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The Peruvian performance was as close to Chinese opera as anything I have ever seen… once again…

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showing the ancient link between Latin America and Asia.

This was as special event as the coordinators especially welcomed our group and the North American residents of Cotacachi. We are now a large segment of Cotacachi’s population.

Here we are.

Cotacachi-culture

The two hour event was really enjoyed by our delegates once again showing that Cotacachi culture is always offering something for us to do.

Gary

Join us at a course our tour in 2009 in Ecuador, North Carolina or Florida.

Merri, our webmaster and I have created a new course on how to build a web business with a webmaster.  Here is a special offer on this new course.

You can enroll in this special course for $299. However if you sign up for three courses in any one month.

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two

Future 2009 courses

May 29-31  JGAM Multi Currency investment Seminar Naples Florida

June 12-14 Shamanic Mingo Tour
June 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
June 18-21 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 3-6 Ecuador Import Export Expedition
July 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
July 10-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Ecuador Banking & Currency Excerpts


Ecuador banking for gringos can be made easy.

You can use banks like this without even opening a bank account.  We’ll see why in a moment.  First…

Ecuador-multi-currency-atm

First this is day three in Ecuador health week.

Ecuador Health Tip #3  is to simply eat more simply and eat less.

Good nutrition is a vital part of good health. But what nutritionally is right?

Having lived around the globe, I have learned so many schools of thought on nutrition (starting with McDonald’s my primary food provider when in high school and I’m still paying for that bad habit) to shamanic Andean nutritional routines., that my head spins when I think about it. Plus Merri and I nrolled in a doctorate degree program (not for the degree but the knowledge) on holistic nutrition.

Program for Health

The problem is, the more one reads, the more the experts seem to contradict themselves! Some say eat raw, others only cooked. Some say something is good others bad and the list of conflicts goes on and on.

Many of them are right, but the crunch is they are only right part of the time, or in some instances or only if an entire program is followed. And of course, most of them don’t take into account body types, which for us is of utmost importance.

Merri’s and my program for health falls into three categories-nutrition, exercise, consciousness and purification. The three parts are so intertwined that one cannot look at any one of them totally alone.

These categories wrap around themselves in every material and consciousness aspect of health. For example, what we watch on TV is a consciousness aspect of nutrition. Our entire being has to digest what we watch, see and hear. So what we see is a type of nutrition. What we see, hear, smell, feel and taste as we eat (and even before a meal) also impacts the digestion of food. Digestion works with every sense and affects the nutrition we receive.

So the rule of KEEP IT SIMPLE seems to be one that almost all the systems I have blundered across agree on.

Certainly a secret of slowing the aging process is do not eat too much!

This sounds so simple but the fact is almost every diet book in the world tiptoes around this simple fact. Many claim you can eat as much as you want on a diet. Rubbish. The only way that scientific research has ever shown to live a longer life is by cutting back calories.

Biologist Siegfried Hekimi learned how to lengthen the average lifespan of tiny transparent worms from 15 to 20 days (the equivalent of increasing a human lifespan from 75 to 100) and confirmed what many scientific studies have found. There is a link between metabolism and lifespan. Eating less can slow the metabolism down.

Our Andean shaman stressed this fact in many ways.  As mentioned in tip #2, I once asked him his most important rule for nutrition. “Eat only on an empty stomach,” was his reply.

This is hard to do if you eat too much. Your blood sugar rockets (from all the food). This causes your adrenalin to kick in to keep the blood sugar in balance. This causes the blood sugar to plummet. This makes you hungry way before the body has had a chance to digest its meal.

There are more reasons. The body is very adept at confirming to our circumstances by creating habits. We eat a lot and the stomach is stretched. The body worries about this and grows the stomach. The bigger stomach instills the habit for more food to fill it. Habits are hard to break except because we are subject to the law of diminishing returns, we want to eat more and more and more.

That’s a universal rule. Let’s look at some specifics. The Andean nutritional system keeps a good fat, protein carbohydrate balance. The Andean shamanic health diet  does not mix sweet with salt. They avoid fermented foods and divide foods into three group: sweet, savory and neutral. You can mix sweet and neutral or salt and neutral but not sweet and savory.

Melon and pineapple are only eaten alone. The Shamanic way is to have light sweet meals morning and evening and full savory meal at noon.

Keeping life simple makes sense when it comes to Ecuador living and banking.   This excerpt of a full report on Ecuador banking, just sent to our Ecuador Living subscribers shows why. Here is the excerpt.

Ecuador’s currency is the US dollar so no currency exchange is required coming or going.  This makes banking easy to begin…but how can one operate money wise on a day to day basis.

There are several ways to bank in Ecuador without having an Ecuador bank account.

Let me add to begin.  I do not trust Ecuador banks. I  lost a fair amount of money in Ecuador banks when they crashed in 1999.  Once bitten twice shy.  plus it is hard for anyone without a resident visa (which Merri and I do not have nor desire) to open an Ecuador bank account.   There are better ways.

One way is  to use ATMs.  Merri and I never had an ATM card in the US but found that this is a good way to access cash here. We also have a safe in all our rooms in Meson de las Flores. Most  hotels  offer free safety deposit boxes so when we arrive, we just put all our cash, wallet with credit cards and passports in our safe box. Then we just have a bit of cash like $20 or so in our pockets.

Ecuador ATM’s

Merri and I live off of ATMs in Ecuador for our day to day cash needs..

ATM’s are in almost every village in Ecuador and are compatible with international credit cards.

Visa credit cards work at ATMs operated by Bank of Guayaquil, Pichincha, Produbanco and Banco Pacífico. Each ATM shows the logos of which cards can be used on that machine. We use our regular ATM cash card issued by our Florida bank at this Bank of Pichincha branch (shown above) on Cotacachi’s second smaller plaza.

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The plaza is pristine because it is maintained by the bank.

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The bank is next to the police station and the second smaller Cathedral.

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Bes ure to see further on what they are doing behind the bank.  There are two Cathedrals in Cotacachi and one bank…a nice ratio.

However there are three Cotacachi ATMs. The other two are on the main street 10th of August. Here is one of them…the newest of the three.

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We are allowed to take $500 a day from the Pichincha ATM and $300 a day from the others.

Jyske ATM Banking in Ecuador

One nifty way to combine global investment management bank and your cash needs in Ecuador is through Copenhagan with Jyske Bank’s VISA debit cards.

This card makes it easy to access cash from your Danish bank account.

Why a Danish bank?  As mentioned earlier I do not trust Ecuador banks. On the other hand Danish banks are among the safest in the world.

First let’s examine safety.  How safe?

In recent years Denmark has been rated by Standard & Poor’s as one of the safest country in the world in which to bank.

Jyske Bank is well established with a history of over 100 years. Jyske is Denmark ’s second largest bank, with 450,000 clients in Denmark and over 30,000 abroad.

Jyske Bank has over 23 billion euros in assets and also happens to be one of the leading currency traders in the world. Many other large banks use Jyske to handle their off hour currency positions. This means that Jyske is huge when it comes to multi currency activity. In fact their turnover reaches $50 billion dollars a day.

Bank Safety Point #1: A recent Yahoo Canada article shows a survey by the World Economic Forum listed five safest countries in which to bank.

Canada
Sweden
Luxembourg
Australia
Denmark

So Denmark is a safe place to bank. Now let’s look at Jyske Bank’s safety rating.

Bank Safety Point #2: On October 10 2008, Moody’s affirmed Jyske Bank’s long-term Aa2 rating. This decision came despite the deteriorated economic prospects in Denmark, particularly in respect of the property market.

Bank Safety Point #3: Also on Friday 10 October 2008, the Danish Parliament passed a bill that secured all deposits and unsecured claims against losses in Danish financial institutions. The rating of the Kingdom of Denmark is Aaa/AAA with Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s respectively.

The people at Jyske are common sense bankers. They had minimal sub prime exposure when that scandal broke. Jyske had zero Madoff exposure.

That’s safe!

How about service?  First of all,  Jyske can manage your wealth. For anyone with $50,000 or more to invest Jyske can buy, sell and hold investments from all over the world, stocks, liquid assets, bonds and commodities. They provide full managed or advisory only services.  They even lend in multiple currencies to leverage investments for investors with $100,000 or more.   Almost no bank in North or Latin America can do this.

Once you have Jyske caring for your wealth, they can then provide a steady stream of cash when you need it…via a global debit card.

Jyske Ecuador & Global Service.

Even US clients who have managed accounts at Jyske Global Asset Management  (JGAM) can have a VISA debit card.

JGAM opens a specific on demand account with Jyske Bank so funds can be made available via the card.

These cards can provide access to cash anywhere in the world…including Ecuador.

Here is Cotacachi’s third ATM.

cotacachi-road-work

Jyske offers three different cards to match different needs.   Each type of card provides considerable flexibility.

You can choose to have the card denominated in a number of currencies based on your choice.  An account is created at Jyske bank in the same currency. No matter the account currency,  the cards can be nominated in euro, US dollar,  British pound, Swiss franc, Swedish or Danish kroner.

If you have have dollars invested and are drawing dollars in Ecuador, you can eliminate forex costs by nominating your card in US dollars.

For more information US investors contact Thomas Fischer of Jyske Global Asset Management at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors contact Rene Mathys of Jyske Bank at mathys@jbpb.dk

You can read the entire report on how to protect against Ecuador banks, Ecuador bank fees and access money in Ecuador …to pay bills, live and invest  etc. as an Ecuador Living subscriber.

Keeping your investing simple in these complex and difficult times can also be easy as the excerpt below form our multi currency course explains.  Here is the excerpt.

Inflation…to be or not to de… Deflate that is. That is the question…we must answer to invest correctly in the days ahead.

I lean further towards inflation over deflation each day.  We can see it coming…governments (led by the USA) spending so much money they do not have, that currencies lose purchasing power.

Here is another inflationary note from the New York Times in an article yesterday that said:

President-elect Barack Obama plans to include about $300 billion in tax cuts for workers and businesses in his economic recovery program, advisers said Sunday, as his team seeks to win over Congressional skeptics worried that he was too focused on government spending.

The legislation Mr. Obama is developing with Congressional Democrats will devote about 40 percent of the cost to tax cuts, including his centerpiece campaign promise to provide credits up to $500 for most workers, costing roughly $150 billion. The package will also include more than $100 billion in tax incentives for businesses to create jobs and invest in equipment or factories.

This may seem like really good news for business, but bad news for the US dollar and hence inflation.   Spending that is not matched by production is inflationary.

For most people, this is bad.

Yet inflation creates fortunes for those of us who know what to do.

There are three ways to profit and stay ahead of inflation. Multi currency investments in distorted shares….distorted commodities and distorted real estate.

TO KEEP MY GLOBAL INVESTING SIMPLE, I BREAK DOWN MY INVESTMENTS INTO THREE PORTIONS, personal…pension…and property.

Yesterday’s lesson looked at my current personal investments to see how I am reacting to this scenario.  We saw that our current asset  breakdown in our personal liquid portfolio is:
Cash Accounts 36%
Bonds 64%

This cash and bonds have a currency breakdown of

Canadian dollar       9%
Euro                         18%
British pound          3%
Hungarian florin   19%
Norway Kroner        9%
NZ dollar                   9%
Sweden kroner       26%
US dollar                   8%

We asked …why all cash and bonds if I believe in inflation?

You may even wonder more when you see  my pension portfolio breakdown.
The asset breakdown of my pension liquid investments are:

This portfolio is more aggressive than my personal liquid portfolio, with shares, emerging shares and emerging currencies.

You can see my pension portfolio breakdown and why I  keep the investments with the lowest potential profit in my personal account since profits and the high risk investments in my pension as a Multi Currency Portfolio Course

Until next message, may all your money be easy to access in a simple way!

Gary

Join us at a course in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Cotacachi speeds ahead! Yesterday we saw how a new road was transformed in a day.

MERRI AND I WALKED BACK AT 6:40 AM THIS MORNING AND THEY HAD MADE ENORMOUS PROGRESS AND WERE ALREADY ON THE JOB.

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They already have sidewalks complete and…

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are laying the brick pavers. I expect they’ll have made a huge impact by tomorrow and will report then. he workers were tickled when I showed them their picture.

cotacachi-road-work

Jyske Gobal Asset Management will join us Feb. 13-15 for our course International Business & Investing Made EZ

Join us at a course in Cotacachi to learn more about multi currency investing or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Feb. 9-11  Beyond Logic Simple Ways to More Wealth and Better Health

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ

Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 10-15 Ecuador Export Expedition

March 16-19 Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one$1,349 for two

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one$1,799 for two

Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our entire schedule of 27 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009 and how to attend as many of them as you like FREE.

The course fee includes meeting at Quito airport (day before the
course)…transportation (by group bus) to Cotacachi and back to Quito.
Course fee does not include air are. accommodations, food or individual transportation.

Ecuador and the Dollar


Since 2000, the US dollar has been Ecuador’s currency. Could it be that now Ecuador and the dollar might part ways?

Many readers have written and voiced concern that Ecuador might stop using the US dollars as its currency and return to a new sucre.

This may or may not happen. I previously did not think it would, until recently President Correa vowed that Ecuador would continue to use  the US dollar.

Lesson one of our Multi Currency Investing course points out that a general rule of currency investing is to expect a currency to devalue (or in this case change) soon after the responsible government swears that it will not.   See more about our Multi Currency Investing Course

Perhaps.

The current strength of the greenback alters the fundamentals.  If the dollar remains strong it is more likely that Ecuador will go off the dollar in  2009.

A continued low oil price could also have an impact on a decoupling decision for two reasons.  First, Ecuador’s President Correa will be under extreme pressure to deliver local promises he has made to the public.  Without high oil prices he has no money to deliver the goods.  His public excuse could be to blame America and the US dollar.  A return to the sucre would allow Correa to print money he needs for local promises right now.  This would only give him a short term boost but if he is desperate this might happen to make him look better.

Secondly, low oil  prices will diminish Ecuador’s foreign exchange reserves and the nation’s ability to pay foreign obligations and debt.  Correa has proven he is willing to jilt long term obligations.  A bond default slams the door in the face of someone who gave you something in the past.  However it is a bit easier to beat up on creditors of the past than those you need to deliver goods now or in the future.  If you do not pay them, they stop sending the goods!

Correa will not want the country running short of the supplies it needs to run on a day to day basis.

Let’s watch for Ecuador’s  reserves versus its short term obligations as an indicator of when Correa might pull the dollar plug.

If Ecuador and the US dollar do part, we must ask, so what? For many, this switch back to the sucre would be good.

When Ecuador originally Dollarized those who suffered most were the urban poor and citified middle class.  When the sucre was Ecuador’s currency and it devalued… wages were always raised at the same time. This meant that basics like food, clothing and subsistence shelter did not really cost more. Inflation at the base level was not real.  Certainly Western imported goods cost more…like TVs, cars and computers.  This mattered little to the urban poor because they never had a chance for this stuff anyway.  The middle class emigrated in droves to Spain and Italy.

Dollarization made inflation real!  Politicians could print more sucres to raise wages with inflation…but they could not print more dollars.  The poor in the city reeled.

The poor in the country who worked in agriculture did well though.  The price of crops rose.

Then the US dollar began to collapse versus other currencies.

The falling dollar helped create business opportunity.  One friend who owns a flower exporting business told me that the flower business in Ecuador was good due to the dollar fall versus other Latin America currencies, especially the Colombian peso. Colombia is one of Ecuador’s largest competitors in roses and bananas, two of Ecuador’s largest exports.

The cost of Ecuadorian products became lower even in the U.S. when compared to products from countries (such a Colombia) where the currency had strengthened against the dollar.

As the dollar falls versus other Latin America currencies, Ecuadorian products become less and less expensive in global terms.

Now of course the dollar has gained strength and this hurts Ecuador’s export potential.  The strong dollar is the rock…the low oil prices…a hard spot.  Correa and Ecuador’s economy are caught between them.

Also a new sucre, though less convenient,  would probably be good for expats.

A full report sent to our Ecuador Living subscribers explains what this would mean to expats and the Ecuador real estate market. You can subscribe here

Gary

Join us at a course in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Jyske Gobal Asset Management will join us Feb. 13-15 for our course International Business & Investing Made EZ

Join us and then stay on for a real estate tour Here is our latest group inspecting the hotel,which is one block from the Ecuador’s Pacific.

ecuador-real-estate-risk

We’ll view this hotel. It has a huge front porch.

ecuador-real-estate-risk

Large second floor veranda with ocean views.

ecuador-real-estate-risk

Beautiful flowered front yard.

ecuador-real-estate-risk

The building is really rough and needs work…but over 8,000 square feet of building. The asking price is $60,000.

We have sent our Ecuador Living paid subscribers more details on this building on this Ecuador hotel for sale. Subscribe to get this report. See how to subscribe to Ecuador Living here.

Join us for our next Spanish course ad real estate tours.

Join us at a course in Cotacachi to learn more about multi currency investing.or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Jan. 16-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Jan. 22-23 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Jan. 24-27 Coastal Real Estate Tour

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ
Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
March 10-15 Ecuador Export Expedition
March 16-19 Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one$1,349 for two

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one$1,799 for two

Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our entire schedule of 27 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009 and how to attend as many of them as you like FREE.

The course fee includes meeting at Quito airport (day before the
course)…transportation (by group bus) to Cotacachi and back to Quito.
Course fee does not include air are. accommodations, food or individual transportation.

Profit From the 2011 Economic Disaster


Are We 33 Months From Real Economic Disaster?

Dear International Friend,

Many investors worry about the current economic downturn…yet there is a destructive investment fundamental that is now so powerful it overwhelms all other factors that affect investing.  It has such power it could destroy most investors in North America and make the current recession pale in comparison. The frightening part is it could unleash its destruction as soon as October 2011!  I want to share what, when and when this disaster could happen.

Then I want to share how you can make a fortune from NOW THROUGH 2012 and during this crash.

Before I explain how you can reap profits never before imagined and sidestep the upcoming disaster that will wipe out so many investors…..we need to look at some facts.

These are facts, figures and statistics that will truly horrify anyone who even keeps a modest checkbook.  The figures give rise to such great concern that we can see the horrible predicament into which we are being led.

Let me prepare you by assuring you that every economic crash is simply a shifting of fortunes.  Just as the depression of the 1930s created many millionaires, so will this crash.  Once you understand the problems, you can find easy ways to protect against them and become one of those who are enriched rather than ruined during the transition.

Part of this debacle will come because the US dollar is now near a major fall…in fact an unprecedented crash is a better term what will happen to the dollar.  We now know, having seen the Dow fall 50% in a year, that US institutions are not invincible from unparalleled drops.

There may be ups for the US Dollar.  For every period of a rising dollar, there will be longer periods when dollars fall.  For every upward move, there will be an ever greater fall,  Each rising will be weaker and shorter, each fall, longer and deeper.

In this knowledge lies a fortune!  Here is why this fact is so sure.

In 1964, the year Lyndon Johnson became president, the total national debt was  $316 billion. By the time, Ronald Reagan left office that debt had climbed to $2.6 trillion.  The interest cost alone was $214 billion.  By 1990 the debt had risen to $3.2 trillion and interest costs for just the one year were $242.9 billion. Interest was the largest single government cost after Social Security, even greater than defense spending.  That was when the economic problem began as US debt moved towards a precipice where recovery becomes impossible.

Flash forward 18 years and read this excerpt from a December 2008 Washington Post article.

“President Bush has nearly doubled the national debt during his eight years in the White House.  Mr. Bush is on track to add $5 trillion to the $5.73 trillion national debt he inherited when he took office. According to Treasury Department data, the number was $10.66 trillion at the end of November, and it has been rising at an astronomical rate.”

That’s bad enough…but the future gets worse as the article says that during fiscal 2008, which ended Sept. 30, 2008 the national debt increased by more than $1 trillion, breaking the previous fiscal year record of more than $600 billion.

The government’s debt situation is about to get worse as the Post outlines that
Federal debt should increase by $2 trillion in fiscal year 2009 alone!

Given an average interest rate of 4 percent, that $5 trillion of extra debt requires extra $200 billion per year from taxpayers in interest on that debt – in perpetuity.

The Post article points out,  “During October, the first month of fiscal 2009, the national debt increased by a staggering $549 billion. That was approximately three-quarters of $1 billion every hour of every day, or more than $12 million per minute and more than $200,000 per second.”

This is a lot of debt even for America’s 14 trillion a year economy.

Then the news gets worse.

Excerpts from an August 2008 US News & World report says:  “Welcome to America’s $2 Trillion Budget Deficit.  Barack Obama has already said that America’s ‘investment deficit’ will take priority over its budget deficit.

A rough estimate of the cost of this New New Deal would be close to $500 billion a year, maybe $775 billion if Uncle Sam is to completely offset the drop in consumer spending predicted by Rosenberg. Now, as it is, the government is expected to run a $500 billion deficit next year. So the S&S plan would put that budget deficit at over $1 trillion. And if you tack on a potential $500 billion to $1 trillion bailout of the banking industry, that $1 trillion deficit could conceivably double to $2 trillion.

But a $2 trillion budget deficit would be, like, 15 percent of GDP. That would be the highest level since World War II and more than twice as high as the postwar peak of 6 percent in 1983.

I can’t believe the global bond and currency market vigilantes wouldn’t completely freak, sending U.S. financial markets into chaos. Talk about a worst—though entirely possible—case scenario.

How much worse could the situation get… a one year deficit that is 15% of Americas fourteen trillion dollar a year economy?

The answer is much worse…in fact five times worse… because…
all of these government estimates are skewed.

If US debt is now 10 trillion and Obama’s administration borrows 2 billion more in 2009, that makes the debt look like 12 trillion.

Yet according to excerpts a USA Today article, “Taxpayers on the hook for $59 trillion” by Dennis Cauchon.  The federal government’s debt is five times worse if corporate-style accounting standards are used.

The article says:  “Modern accounting requires that corporations, state governments and local governments count expenses immediately when a transaction occurs, even if the payment will be made later.

“The federal government does not follow the rule, so promises for Social Security and Medicare don’t show up when the government reports its financial condition.

“Bottom line: Taxpayers are now on the hook for a record $59.1 trillion in liabilities, a 2.3% increase from 2006. That amount is equal to $516,348 for every U.S. household.”

With such fundamentals, it is hard to be anything but pessimistic about the US dollar.  This is why, with the information I am about to share, you can reap profits again and again.

Take for example the financial power that comes from understanding the value of the US dollar to the Japanese yen.

Despite the crash of 2008, long term investors in the US stock market have done well.  January  1, 1982, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 896.  January 1, 2009 it was  8,515.  That is a rise of 9.5 times in 26 years or about 36% (9% compounded) return a year…even after the 2008 crash!   $10,000 invested has grown to $95,000.

So, it seems.

Now, let’s look at the yen.  During the first half of the 1980s, the yen failed to rise in value even though current account surpluses returned and grew quickly. From ¥221 in 1981, the average value of the yen actually dropped to ¥239 in 1985.

When the Dow was 896, a US dollar bought 230 yen.

Today, 26 years later, January 1, 2009, a dollar buys about 90 yen. Imagine this. 2,300,000 yen purchased $10,000 in 1982 which grew to $95,000.   The $95,000 buys 8,550,000 yen.

The excellent Dow profit looks downright lousy, an increase of only 3.7 times in 26 years.  61% percent of all the Dow profit in the last 26 years has been lost due to US dollar erosion.  And the dollar’s fall will grow worse!

This is powerful profit knowledge…IF…you know what to.

US government debt has passed the short term point of no return.  Three bold steps were needed two decades ago, a reduction of entitlement costs (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.), reduced defense spending and a reduction of the existing debt.  The government moved in the opposite direction… in all three cases.

There are many ill omens as our new government still does not take this incredible problem seriously. The proposed new plans might cost trillions more. These are trillions that the US government does not have.  Nor are we likely to see any increases in tax revenues during the current economic downturn.

America must borrow to spend and the deeper the US debt, the greater the dollar’s fall.

The government’s refusal to create a plan to balance the budget shows no solution is in sight.  It is menacing to see how the government plans to spend more now.

The US Treasury only has 33 months left before a tsunami of expense rushes over  the government.   By the time (if ever) the government finally recognizes this problem, for most investors, it will be too late.  If it takes a terrible crash of the US dollar to finally wake the government, it could wipe out millions of families’ saving, capital and spending power in the process.

All these facts are omens of ill winds ahead.  There are already tens of millions of Americans who have been financially wiped out….but the worst has not even begun.

We will see hyper inflation, massive unemployment and a free fall of the greenback that will affect currencies and investing everywhere.  This crash will make the current downturn…even the last great 1930s depression look like a Sunday picnic.

You do not have to be alarmed because the resolution which I am about to share is so simple, anyone can act and can prepare for this disaster without inconvenience or trouble.

You do not have to participate in the great fall of the US dollar.  All you have to do is learn how to be a multi currency investor.

The time for international investing is right.  Global diversification has already created fortunes for a few sophisticated investors because this obvious problem of the US government debt actually makes it easier to make money, if you know how to invest abroad.

Let me explain why big problems can mean big profits, then let me explain why no one has been around to tell you how to invest abroad but why there is not a solution that can make multi currency investing totally easy for you.

First, let’s look at the big problem. It’s a sad reality that US government debt has actually been ruining US investments for over 40 years.  The big bankruptcy that’s coming is just the end.  The bankruptcy really started in 1971 and has been building steadily since.

Until 1971 the US dollar was the kingpin currency for the world.  Then it was “temporarily” suspended from the gold standard.  This “temporary” move, like our debt today, was ignored by the government. Since that time (the dollar was never reinstated to the gold standard), the buck has fallen and fallen. Though you may have read about a strong dollar lately, the reality of the greenback’s slide continues.

Don’t get me wrong, the dollar has not dropped every day.  It has enjoyed some short term rises over the past 37 years, but to see the real picture all you have to do is look at the dollar’s value in any major currency in 1971 and then look at its value today.

In 1972 for example the US $ was worth over 4.25 Swiss francs, 4.00 German marks and nearly 400 Japanese yen.  Today, as you can see from the yahoo.the same dollar has dropped as low as 1 dollar per Swiss franc, .65 euro (related to the German mark) and only 90 yen.  In other words, if you had $10,000 in 1971, it was worth about 4,000,000 yen.  If you invested those dollars safely clear back in the 1970s and earned a 4% compound return, by 2008 those dollars were worth over $40,000.  You might well feel the investment had gone well.

The sad truth is those $40,000 are now worth only 3,800,000 yen!  All US dollar investments have lost over 4% compounded each and every year for the past 22 years.  Your 4% return was a real loss by hard currency standards, but this loss has been hidden and the real facts about your wealth have been kept from you.

On the other hand, had you invested in Japan, Switzerland, Germany or most other major currencies, your investment would have tripled or quadrupled in dollar terms even before you started making profits!

There is another fact that is even more spectacular.  Most stock and bond markets abroad (in addition to the currency gains) have been better than in the US.

For example had you invested in the Dow in 1978, the ow was standing at 865. Today, mid December 2008 is is 8,500.  $10,000 invested in the Dow in 1978 would have grown to about $100,000…even after the global stock market crash.

Not bad?

If instead you had invested $10,000 in an investment as simple as the Templeton World Fund which started in 1978 and invests in stock markets al over the world, the $10,000…after the 2008 global crash…is still worth $352,080.

Look at the performance of bond markets as well.

Right now you receive 1.96% on the U.S. Treasury bonds that mature 2013.

Yet good quality Danish bonds of about the same term pay 4.53%  in Danish kroner.

Norwegian kroner bonds pay 3.70%
Swedish government bonds pay 2.74%
British Treasury bonds pay 3.18%
Mexican Government US dollar bonds 5.10%
Peru Government US dollar bonds 7.57%
South African bonds in euro pay 8.61%
Indonesian bonds in US dollars pay 11.57%
Hungarian Government Florin bonds 12.35%
Brazilian Government Real bonds 14.78%

Plus all of the currencies above (though depressed lately) have appreciated as much as 50% versus the dollar in recent years.

These statistics show how US government debt has invisibly, but relentlessly, destroyed the value of our investments in North America.  These statics come from my multi currency investment course, that can help you prosper even though the US dollar falls.

I’ll explain the course but first let me explain why, even though the US dollar has fallen so dramatically over the past 37 years, no one has been knocking on your door to tell you how to invest abroad.

It is the very weakness of the US dollar that has stopped North American banks, brokers and other financial institutions from telling you about the problem. These facts have been hidden from you because they have been afraid if US investors knew how bad the dollar has been that no one would deal with them.  They have, short and simple, been afraid of losing business.

Now let me tell you about this simple easy-to-use investment course called Multi Currency Investing  (MCI) and how you can have it on a no risk basis.

First, let me explain that the course is designed for anyone.  It is even for those who have never invested abroad, even if they are small investors with only a few thousand or a small amount to invest monthly.  MCI explains how investments can be made overseas for small amounts.  It even explains how to invest out of the US dollar right her in the US and never leave your home of office.

However, MCI also gives sophisticated information that you might not know even if you have been investing all over the world.  Some of my readers and course delegates are billionaires who own dozens of companies and invest all over the world!

Sleepy, Safe Portfolios Can Earn Over 100% Per Year

Multi currency investing does not require any fast trading techniques.  Multi currency portfolios are normally slow and sleepy investments…not currency contracts or futures speculations.  Most multi currency positions are aimed with a five year horizon…pretty sleepy compared to people who trade currencies (an entirely different and far riskier technique). For most of us, slow and sleepy mean SAFE!

Yet multi currency portfolios can be really profitable as well.

How sleepy and how safe?

Let’s look first at sleepy.

In 2006 we created an Asian multi currency portfolio consisting of just five award winning mutual funds.

We did not touch the entire portfolio for an entire year. Then after one year we made just five changes…dropping two mutual funds and adding three other mutual funds. Then we did not make another single change. That’s pretty sleepy, choosing a handful of mutual funds and making only five changes in two years.

Okay. Here is the big question. How profitable?

In the first year (2006) this portfolio rose 114.16%. Then we made the five changes mentioned (two funds dropped and three added). In 2007 this portfolio rose 122.62%.  2008 was a disaster year and the portfolio lost 79%. But when your portfolio is up over 236% in two years, it takes a lot of disaster to lose…so this portfolio is well ahead even after the great 2008 crash.

Year one up 114%
Year two up 122%
Year three down 79%

Total in three years…up 157% or an average of over 52% per annum for three years…even after the 2008 crash.

May I hasten to add that the portfolios published in the portfolio are not published recommendations.  These are portfolios we study to learn why they rise or fall. More on this in a moment.

First let’s examine safety.  How safe?

The portfolios were chosen with the help of one of the world’s safest banks and the mutual funds were all subsidiaries of that bank.

That safe bank is a Danish bank. That’s good because in recent years Denmark has been rated by Standard & Poor’s as one of the safest country in the world in which to bank.

The bank is Jyske Bank…well established with a history of over 100 years. Jyske is Denmark ’s second largest bank, with 450,000 clients in Denmark and over 30,000 abroad.

Jyske Bank has over 23 billion euros in assets and also happens to be one of the leading currency traders in the world. The Danes have always been big currency traders because as a small naval country surrounded by England, Sweden, Finland, Russia, Germany, Norway and other countries…they have always had to deal in many currencies.

This historically gained expertise means that unlike most banks (that trade only eight hours a day) Jyske maintains a 24 hour global currency and commodity dealer service. Many other large banks use Jyske to handle their off hour currency positions. This means that Jyske is huge when it comes to multi currency activity. In fact their turnover reaches $50 billion dollars a day.

Let’s address this issue of safety in more detail. Normally this is a pretty moot point. Right now everyone is concerned. Is a bank safe or not? I like Jyske from a bank safety point of view because there are three bank safety points, from the top down.

Bank Safety Point #1: A recent Yahoo Canada article shows a survey by the World Economic Forum listed five safest countries in which to bank.

Canada
Sweden
Luxembourg
Australia
Denmark

So Denmark is a safe place to bank. Now let’s look at Jyske Bank’s safety rating.

Bank Safety Point #2: Jyske Bank is Denmark’s second largest bank.
On October 10 2008, Moody’s affirmed Jyske Bank’s long-term Aa2 rating stable rating. This decision came despite the deteriorated economic prospects in Denmark, particularly in respect of the property market.

Bank Safety Point #3: Also on Friday 10 October 2008, the Danish Parliament passed a bill that secured all deposits and unsecured claims against losses in Danish financial institutions. The rating of the Kingdom of Denmark is Aaa/AAA with Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s respectively.

These are common sense bankers. They had minimal sub prime exposure when that scandal broke. Jyske had zero Madoff exposure.

That’s safe!

I happen to know Jyske Bank because I began using them (as my bank) over 20 years ago. They are one of the few banks that offers a special multi currency portfolio service for investors from almost anywhere in the world…including US investors through their Jyske Global Asset Management.

I was one of the first writers and publishers to begin writing about multi currency investing. Jyske bank was one of the first banks to offer a multi currency portfolio service…and they were my bank.

Not surprising we got together and have created a symbiotic relationship that can help you learn how to create multi currency portfolios that suit you.   Jyske Bank assists by providing information that only a huge global bank trading 50 billion dollars of currencies and contracts a day (as Jyske does) can afford.   My symbiotic relationship with Jyske allows me to combine my experience with this bank’s incredible knowledge, real time information capability and expertise so you learn in a most practical way from some of the greatest multi currency experts in the world.

Now let’s look at both the up and down side of these high performing portfolios and how they work?

The goal of MCI is not to recommend investments for you, but to help you learn how to be a multi currency investor so you are better at directing your broker,  banker or investment advisor.

To accomplish this goal, the course provides three levels of education.

Part one of MCI is an extensive beginner’s guide to developing multi currency portfolios.  This entire primer is sent to you when you begin the course.  This portion of the course takes nothing for granted and walks you step by step through every part of international investing.

Take, one of the primer lessons as an example. It explains theory on some of the reasons why currencies move, but taking nothing for granted it also explains what the currencies of the world are and gives their history, so before you learn why the euro doubled versus the US dollar, you get to know these currencies and the their underlying fundamentals.

Another lesson in the primer gives case studies that are real examples of how the theory has been put to use in the past.  This lesson covers theory on why currencies move and how to spot the hot currencies months ahead of time. Then it gets down to brass tacks and explains how to open bank accounts overseas to hold the hot currencies…or even how to invest abroad through US banks and brokers.

Everything about how to bank abroad and hold the currencies is covered.  How to open accounts, how to send money abroad all the laws relating to overseas accounts, taxation, etc. plus the most important part, which is how to spend the money when you need it from overseas accounts.

Then the course gives a real, live case study that show how the theory works in reality. It tells about an investor who opened an account, got a  checkbook and credit card and how he used them both and held several currencies for higher returns that he gained with US dollars.

Finally you also get valuable contacts in the course.  These are vitally important. There are names and addresses of institutions and source of information you can use to turn your knowledge into action!

Here is the syllabus of the primer you will receive in MCI.

* Why Currencies Move.

* How to Bank Abroad.

* How to Buy Stocks and Bonds Overseas.

* How to Choose Currencies.

* Why Currencies Rise and Fall.

* How to Borrow Low and Deposit High.

* How to Buy Mutual Funds That Invest Abroad.

* ETFS. Why They are Often Better Than Managed Funds.

* How to Find Bonds that are Like and Often Better than Shares

* How and When to Capture Recoveries.

* Global Portfolio Diversification Theory.

* When Leveraged Low Risk Portfolios Are Safer and Perform Better Than High Risk Portfolios.

The primer deals with the past…but as we so vividly saw in 2008…markets are always in a state of change so…

Part two studies global markets in real time.  Your MCI course comes in regular emailed lessons usually emailed every two or three days.  Though at times you’ll get a lesson every day for many days in a row. Other times nothing will come for a week because these lessons are based on real time market activity.  MCI studies currencies and global investment markets and reports to you on their value and why that value occurs.

This portion of the course studies the current performance of portfolios that Jyske bank creates…plus examines the portfolios of several globally diversified mutual funds….for both small and large investors.   This portion of your course gives you an overall, up-to-date understanding of market and currency moves.

Part three of MCI shares my portfolio and where I invest.  This is an unusual feature…so let me explain why MCI regularly reviews my personal investment portfolio and how this can be of value to your investing.

First this is honest.nd we have fund that for us…honesty pays.

As we recently learned from the Madoff scam…investors must always be on guard.  This is our 41st year of educating about international investing.  This is all we do and our great long term success has been based on placing our readers ahead of all other considerations.   We do not sell investments. We do not give individual advice.  We have no hidden agendas that could lead investments astray.

We want you to see and know what we are doing based on our own advice so you can trust the data we share.  Otherwise the lessons do little good.  You the reader are the only way we earn.  We do not receive commissions…or any form of remuneration for selling shares or accounts etc.   We hope to work with you for life…rather than make some type of quick killing by advising you to invest in something we d not really believe in.

We feel that by letting you know how we actually invest helps accomplish this long term bond.

This is vital because we often invest exactly the opposite of the market.

Take for example the five 2007 portfolios we studied in MCI:

Portfolios             12 Month Rise
Swiss Samba           53.32%
Emerging Mkt        122.62%
Dollar Short             48.19%
Dollar Neutral          38.67%
Green                    266.30%

This is performance you will rarely see duplicated…anywhere…at any time.

Yet these were model portfolios…not meant to be yours….not meant to be mine.  I do not invest in these portfolios because…they do not suit my lifestyle and my unique personal financial needs.  One of the key lessons that MCI focuses on…again and again is “there is no perfect portfolio for you”… except one designed uniquely for you.

My portfolio is not perfect for you either…yet seeing “how” I adapt my portfolio to our virtual real time portfolio reviews can help you learn how to adapt your personal portfolio  as well.

So even though our study portfolios were enjoying world class performance, exploding upwards like rockets,  I was reducing leverage and getting out of markets.  On August 17, 2007…well before the 2008 collapse began I posted the note in an MCI lesson on why I was getting out of leverage and equities.

“Such historical measures are so inexact that we cannot predict just from them what will happen in the short term. The numbers are close enough that we could be entering the fourth sub cycle down (similar to 1976 to 1978). If so expect a sustained drop in markets for two to three years.”

Even though the portfolios MCI studied continued to rise, I sent another danger lesson to the course on September 21, 2007. “Equity markets dropped again violently last month. Now these markets have recovered again. Yet this may be a last gasp party.”

I began increasingly concerned for myself and on October 14 sent this lesson  “Periods of high performance are followed by times of low returns. We never know for sure when an upwards cycle will stall. Fundamentals look good for a bright 2008 in emerging and equity markets, but this can change quickly so to give our readers a better perspective, this year we are reducing leverage and adding a sixth portfolio with no leverage to study”.

The Oct. 15, 2007 lesson said: “Okay it’s time to turn the burner down and offered a “leverage dwindling” warning.  On Oct. 26 I explained to readers that I had eliminated even my modest leverage and wrote: “There is a final reason I liquidated my leverage now…to lead by example. Too many readers are thinking that the dollar short or dollar neutral Portfolios are only up 38% or 48% for the year. When one thinks that way they could be headed for trouble, so I hope investors will follow my lead and take greater care with their leverage.”

I did not stop. The November 8, 2007 was a Black Friday interim message that warned again about all the points above and more.

This created one plain and simple fact.   The 2008 stock market crash drop did not surprise those enrolled in MCI.

Right now at the end of 2008, I am adding leveraged bonds to my portfolio. Here is an excerpt from the December 28, 2008 MCI lesson:

There are many similarities between the US economy and the US government’s response to the downturn with Japan’s slowdown in the early 1990s and the Japanese  government’s response then.   Readers made fortunes borrowing yen as they may make fortunes borrowing dollars now.

Watch especially now for ways to borrow dollars at low rates for investing in high yield, short term dollar bonds like:

Currency                      Bond                               Yield

USD    9.125   19/05/2009    SOUTH AFRICA     6.04%

USD    10.25   17/06/2013     BRAZIL REP OF     6.24%

USD     8.25     31/03/2010     RUSSIA                   5.93%

This type of bond has no currecny risk if leveraged in US dollars.  Your only major risk is default.

Bonds denominated in euro are even more to my liking because they pay higher interest and have a potential forex gain if the dollar drops again verus the euro.

Yet our lessons are objective and provide warnings of risk as well.  This type of leveraged investment also has a chance of loss if the dollar rises verus the euro. Do not borrow more than you can afford to lose!

There is even more yield potential in bonds denominated in euro.

EUR      5.75   02/07/2010     ROMANIA             10.81%

EUR    8.5     24/09/2012     BRAZIL REP OF      7.49%

EUR    5.25     16/05/2013     SOUTH AFRICA     8.61%

These three bonds yield an average 8.97%. They represent a diversification into Europe, Latin America and Africa.   If you invest $100,000 and also invest another borrowed $100,000 at 4%, your total annual return is 13.94%  before  any forex gains or loss.

MCI provides you with bank contacts who  lend in many currencies often at very low rates, to leverage investments.

Multi Currency Investing helps you enjoy the ultimate form of financial security.

From the very first lesson, you expand your knowledge about investing abroad.  You gain contacts that can bring you solid profits and safety when most investors are being silently robbed blind by the steady deterioration of the US economy and the US dollar.

I want to give my readers an answer to relieve the anxiety they faced from this awesome dollar problem that I don’t think is going to get solved.

I originally started this course just for my readers.  Tens of thousands enrolled and we have shared how to invest globally for deades.

Now due to the 2008 global economic crash, I am rewriting the entire course.  This
crash has changed everything and I would like to share how to profit in 2009 with you.

Everyone needs to know how to have multi currency diversification. But in case this course does not help you, we provide a 30 day “completely satisfied or your money back” guarantee that we have offered our hundreds of thousands of readers for more than 20 years.

Our Multi Currency Educational Service is normally a mere $249 for a very long and educational year!

Won’t you share this exciting world of wealth accumulation with us and our readers around the world?

Subscribe here or see below how to join us in Ecuador or North Carolina and receive this course FREE.

Gary Scott

P.S.   As previously mentioned, the portfolios we tracked in 2007 had the following results:

Portfolios             12 Month Rise
Swiss Samba           53.32%
Emerging Mkt        122.62%
Dollar Short             48.19%
Dollar Neutral          38.67%
Green                    266.30%

You can imagine performance like this attracted quite a bit of attention…and it did.

However these high returns were not the important benefit our readers gained.

MCI does not recommend nor manage portfolios.  We did not suggest that readers invest in these portfolios. We created and tracked them because they were educational.

The courses is designed so you can work with your own investment manager to create your own multi currency portfolio that suits your own special, individual needs.  The multi currency investment course is designed to help you learn how to manage your manager… nothing more.  Yet this is a lot because Jyske Bank can provide a stable and safe institution for those who wish to employ a multi currency strategy.

The course will help you guide  any investment adviser or investment manager who understands how to invest in more than one currency.

The course also helps you manage risk. The incredible portfolio performance above was achieved because the portfolios were leveraged using a tactic we call a multi currency sandwich. Investors borrow low and invest in yielding or growth portfolios. The portfolios used loans in Japanese yen and Swiss francs to magnify profits in good times.

Plus we learned how leverage pushes losses faster in bad times and that leverage can help recovery at the end of bad times as well.

Here is an interesting multi currency fact that provides us with a valuable investing idea.   In 2009 we are tracking three Jyske portfolios.

Low Risk Multi Currency Portfolio invests in:  Fixed Income 70%,  Equities 20%,  Alternatives 5%,  Cash 5%.

Medium Risk Multi Currency Portfolio invests in: Fixed Income, 40%,  Equities 50%,  Alternatives 5%, Cash 5%.

High Risk Multi Currency Portfolio invests in:  Fixed Income  10%, Equities 80%,  Alternatives 5%,  Cash 5%.

Our studies to date have shown that the low risk portfolio, with some leverage, can be safer and perform better than a non leveraged high risk portfolio.

MCI continually reviews these portfolios so we can earn real time from their performance.

Subscribe here or see below how to join us in Ecuador or North Carolina and receive this course FREE.

Here is what a few others from around the world have said about our services and reports on international investing.

“ Gary , I am a long time subscriber in various media, and while cleaning out my files today I found some old ‘Gary A. Scotts World Reports’. In particular, the April 1988 issue provided the info that made me over a million dollars. Just wanted to say a belated ‘thank you’ and please continue the excellent work. Warm regards,”
From an Unknown Reader

“Dear Gary, I would like to give thanks to you for introducing me to Jyske Bank two years ago.

“I have been a long-time client of Merrill Lynch, but am in the process of re-evaluating my relationship with the largest brokerage company in the world. My problem is that when I compare Merrill to Jyske, Jyske outshines Merrill (or other major U.S. brokerage firms) in most categories as follows:

“1) Even though Jyske is much smaller, it has a much more global perspective which is critical in an evermore global investment environment.

“2) In order to maximize their own individual revenue, the brokers at Merrill prefer to outsource the day-to-day management of their accounts to various fund managers and hence, ‘manage the managers’. In contrast, I can call my Account Manager at Jyske and he can discuss every aspect of my account in detail with me.

“3) I attribute this difference in #2 to the fact that Jyske’s employees are not compensation driven, but instead are focused on satisfying their customers. That is why Jyske’s clients stay with the Bank on average for 12 years, which is phenomenal by Wall Street standards.

“4) Jyske’s security is far more stringent than that of Merrill’s. In addition to the standard account code and password, to pass through Jyske’s security one has to enter a Key Card number and also a randomly-generated 4-digit number from said Key Card.

“5) Having an account offshore allows me to sleep better given the anxious times we live in. Since I report the existence of the account and pay all taxes due, I am fully compliant with the law. However, such an account gives me and my family a ‘financial life boat’ should events in our own country ever get out of hand.

“As Dorothy Parker once said, ‘You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them THINK’. Jyske is a thinking person’s bank. My only complaint is the time zone difference since I live in California . However, since I am an early riser and my Account Manager is very responsive to my emails, this problem is very small relative to the HUGE benefits.

“Again, many thanks for introducing me to Jyske Bank. Given the ‘dumbing down’ that occurs in the popular media today, your ezine and its recommendations are ever more important. Please continue your good work to enlighten your readership.  Warm regards,”
C.M. CALIFORNIA Businessman

“I was so overwhelmed with information I received I had to spend several days reading, sorting and filing it! I have decided to move my modest investment capital overseas.”
B.W. MONTREAL CANADA Professor

“Send me your report on safe banks lending at 7% for redeposit at 13% or more.” B.V. ADDIS ABADA ETHIOPIA Economic Commission United Nations

“A number of new and significant contacts were made. It would be extremely helpful if you could supply us with WORLD REPORTS.” I.M. TORONTO , CANADA Banker

“You are as good as your word which is rare these days. I look forward to attending one of your seminars.” C.K. GENEVA , SWITZERLAND Banker

“In spite of my marketing experience, your information really got me going!” M. C. LONDON, ENGLAND Marketing Consultant

“Thanks for the three reports. They are very interesting and should find many readers here in Japan .” M.A. Tokyo , JAPAN Computer Programmer

“I would like to say how much I enjoyed the information I received.” A.B. Providenciales TURKS & CAICOS Accountant

“First let me say how much we enjoyed the investment seminar.” W.J. SAUDI ARABIA Oil Engineer

“Once again thanks for all the great information.” G.K. PERTH , AUSTRALIA Insurance Executive

“Your letter of November 8th warned me to beware of the market just a week before the 120 point crash on November 15th!” T.G. N. CAROLINA Pilot”

Yet global economics 2008 have changed everything.   So I am now offering this course to a wider audience who have indicated their concern with the state of the US economy.

Before I make this offer to a wider audience however, I want to make a special December offer to you.

This course has been and is normally offered for $249.

To begin, I am reducing that price to $175…a savings of $74…yet there is much more because you can enjoy this course FREE.

You can enroll here…now and save $74

Here is how to receive this course FREE.

In 2009 I will work with Jyske Bank to conduct four  courses  about how to be a multi currency investor.

Two of these courses will be conducted in Ecuador

February 13 -15 and Nov. 6 to 8, 2009

The other two courses will  be conducted in North Carolina.

July 24-26 and  Oct. 9-11, 2009

Simply sign up for any of the four courses above and you receive the Multi Currency Course in 2009 FREE.

Multi Currency Inflation


Multi currency inflation will have a profound  impact on  your investments and savings.

The key to understanding multi currency investing and inflation is to understand that a shrinkage of the global economy  creates deflation.

See how to determine which scenario will unfold at inflation or deflation

Here is an excerpt from that multi currency lesson.

Watch for the figures…global government debt and global economic growth or contraction.

Historically during inflation the best multi currency investments are commodities, equities and real estate.  During deflation, the best are bonds, cash (T-Bills) and real estate.

During inflation leverage works best.   During deflation it is nice to sit in a no debt multi currency situation.

Review each possible scenario with your financial adviser.  If they assure you that they know…beware.  NO one knows for sure…so adjust your portfolo to your personal circumstances and the scenario that you and your adviser agree is most likely to unfold.

Remember… statistics  are sometimes obscured for political reasons at best.   Even when they are transparant… they are often incorrect.

The best we can do is make a reasonable guess,  keep watch  and be willing to adapt.

Always look for value in distortions and trends.

There is a huge distortion growing in the trend of the US government  borrowing to fix everyone’s woes.   If  this borrowing offsets deflation but does not create runaway inflation, the dollar is likely to drop versus currencies with higher interest rates or where the government is not so deeply in debt.

This borrowing and the US economic slow down have created the perfect storm for a currency distortion…an over strong currency…that is likely to fall….and can be borrowed at a very low interest rate

There are many similarities between the US economy and the US government’s response to the downturn with Japan’s slowdown in the early 1990s and the Japanese  government’s response then.   Readers made fortunes borrowing yen as they may make fortunes borrowing dollars now.

Watch especially now for ways to borrow dollars at low rates for investing in high yield, short term dollar bonds like:

Currency                      Bond                     Yield

USD    9.125   19/05/2009    SOUTH AFRICA     6.04%

USD    10.25   17/06/2013     BRAZIL REP OF     6.24%

USD     8.25     31/03/2010     RUSSIA          5.93%

This type of bond has no currency risk if leveraged in US dollars.  Your only major risk is default.

Bonds denominated in euro are even more to my liking because they pay higher interest and have a potential forex gain if the dollar drops again verus the euro.

Yet this type of leveraged investment also has a chance of loss if the dollar rises verus the euro. Do not borrow more than you can afford to lose!

There is even more yield potential in bonds denominated in euro.

EUR      5.75   02/07/2010     ROMANIA             10.81%

EUR    8.5     24/09/2012     BRAZIL REP OF      7.49%

EUR    5.25     16/05/2013     SOUTH AFRICA     8.61%

These three bonds yield an average 8.97%. They represent a diversification into Europe, Latin America and Africa.   If you invest $100,000 and also invest another borrowed $100,000 at 4%, your total annual return is 13.94%  before  any forex gains or loss.

Until next message may all your scenarios be clear.

Gary

The bonds mentioned above are from Jyske Bank’s bond list. These are indicative rates not recommendations.

To learn more about bonds like those above diversification  and to check on current Jyske risk profiles, US investors should contact JGAM Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors contact Jyske Bank Rene Mathys at  mathys@jbpb.dk

Until next message good global investing.

Gary

Join Merri, me and Peter Laub of Jyske Global Asset Management at OUR INTERNATIONAL INVESTING & BUSINESS COURSE IN ECUADOR. We review economic conditions, Ecuador real estate, my entire portfolio plus investing and business ideas for the months ahead.

Feb. 9-11 Beyond Logic.

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ
Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our entire schedule of 27 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009 and learn how to attend them FREE.

Ecuador Bond Default


Today, December 15, 2009, we’ll know for sure if Ecuador has defaulted on some of its bonds. Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa threatened to do this once before…and did not.

This time I believe he will.

This will be good…for many…because despite the default, Ecuador’s sun will not go away.

Ecuador-bond-default

Nor will the beauty of Ecuador’s mountains like this one we climbed.

Ecuador-bond-default

Nor will it stop the smiles of Ecuador’s happy people like these potato farmers we met on the hike.

Ecuador-bond-default

Nor will the hard working energy of the crafts people in town like Otavalo (shown here) cease.

Ecuador-bond-default

Nor the richness of the land like this Intag forest go away.

Ecuador-bond-default

Nor will the wonder of the longevity valleys like this Intag plain end.Ecuador-bond-default

Ecuador’s bond default may create profits in two ways….one in the global bond market. The other gain will be in Ecuador.

Many readers have sent me a link to last week’s Bloomberg December 12, 2009 article by Stephan Kueffner which says:

Correa Defaults on Ecuador Bonds, Seeks Restructuring.  Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa halted payment on foreign bonds he calls “illegal” and “illegitimate,” putting the South American country in default for a second time in a decade.

The government won’t make a $30.6 million interest payment by Dec. 15, when a month long grace period expires, Correa told reporters in his office in Guayaquil. The $510 million bonds due in 2012 plunged to 23 cents on the dollar from 31 yesterday and 97.5 cents three months ago.

“I have given the order that interest payments not be made,” Correa said. “The country is in default.”

Though Ecuador is a small country, the size of France, with about 11 million people, its bond default may slow the recovery of the bond market during this global economic downturn.

Latin Bonds already have strong yields.  Look at the high yields on medium term denominated in US euro and US dollars!

Currency   Bond                Country             Yield

EUR     8.5  24/09/2012     BRAZIL             7.49%

EUR     7.375 03/02/2015   BRAZIL            8.38%

EUR     11.5   31/05/2011   COLOMBIA      8.17%

EUR     5.375 10/06/2013   MEXICO           7.28%

EUR         7.5  14/10/2014  PERU               9.02%

USD        10.25 17/06/2013 BRAZIL           6.24%

USD     8.25 22/12/2014      COLOMBIA     7.42%

USD     9.875  06/02/2015    PERU             7.57%

Ecuador owes about $10 billion to bondholders, multilateral lenders and other countries…not a lot by global standards…but  Ecuador’s bond default could cause a ripple down in Latin bonds and create even higher yields.  If so, I’ll buy some today.

The bonds and yields above are from Jyske Bank’s bond list of last Friday. These are indications not recommendations.    You can get up-to-date bond information from:

US investors at Jyske Global Asset Management.  Contact Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Non US Investors at Jyske Bank. Contact  Rene Mathys at mathys@jbpb.dk

The next opportunity is in Ecuador. Many readers have asked questions like:

Ecuador is defaulting on its bonds. Any problems because of this? Is this good or bad?

This is a question much like, “Is the US federal $800 billion bail out, good or bad?”

The answer is yes and no.

First, remember that Ecuador defaulted on bonds once before in 1999.   Everything fell apart. Bank’s shut down. The country ran out of gas.  Times were terrible.

The country remained a great place to live. The cost of living collapsed. Help was easy to get. You could buy real estate for a song. So the answer to “Is this good or bad?” depends on who you are, how much money you have and where it is invested.

The Bloomberg article points out that Correa says of the default:

“I couldn’t allow the continued payment of a debt that by all measures is immoral and illegitimate,” Correa said. “It is now time to bring in justice and dignity.”

A debt commission Correa formed last year said in a 172 page report in November that the global bonds due in 2012 and 2030 “show serious signs of illegality,” including issuance without proper government authorization. Correa invoked the 30- day grace period on the interest payment last month, saying he wanted to analyze the commission’s findings.

Correa, 45, said the government will present a restructuring proposal in coming days. “We want creditors to recoup part of their money,” he said.

Personally I think this is true, but is the wrong approach.  I have long been a defender of Correa.  He is much like Barrack Obama, young, smart, energetic, from a poor background, who worked his way to the top with a mandate made possible by minorities….based on promises that probably cannot be kept.

He is trying to make improvements..but can he?

Obama cannot change the previous American debt and some of that US debt, in my opinion, is as immoral and illegitimate as can be.  If previous Ecuadorian politicians broke the law and created incorrect loans…Correa and the people of Ecuador should punish them.  They should recoup what they can from those people…but to punish lenders will simply stop lenders from lending to Ecuador.   This will hurt the nation, long term, as a whole.

The Bloomberg article goes on to say:

“Ecuador is moving further into isolation,” said Vicente Albornoz, head of the Cordes research institute in Quito. “The hardliners in the government won.”

“Ecuador is a serial defaulter,” said Arturo Porzecanski, an international finance professor at American University in Washington. “They defaulted in the 1980s, 1990s and this decade. A lot of other countries have had one or two defaults, but Ecuador tops them all.”

Correa, who holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, has said he will not sacrifice spending on health and education to pay the debt. Ecuador’s foreign obligations are equal to 21 percent of its $44 billion gross domestic product. Argentina’s debt, by comparison, was equivalent to 150 percent of its GDP when it defaulted in 2001, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Oil, which has plunged 67 percent since July amid the global financial crisis, accounts for about 60 percent of Ecuador’s exports. Finance Minister, Maria Elsa Viteri, said on Nov. 18 the country’s fiscal accounts remain “strong and healthy.” Ecuador had $5.65 billion in cash reserves as of Dec. 5, according to the Central Bank.

The default was triggered by the combination of the decline in oil with “a ridiculous ideology,” said Claudio Loser, the former director of the International Monetary fund’s Western Hemisphere department, who now is a scholar at the Inter- American Dialogue. “The financial need wasn’t so great that it was forced to declare a default,” Loser said.

The South American country has defaulted six times since it separated from Gran Colombia in 1830, according to “Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises,” a book published in 2007 by Federico Sturzenegger and Jeromin Zettelmeyer.

“It’s a final blow to external investors, and particularly any energy investors that may have retained interest or had future plans to attempt an investment in Ecuador,” said Enrique Alvarez, head of Latin America fixed-income research at IDEAglobal Inc. in New York.

I believe this default will hurt Ecuador’s overall economy…and help expats who live and invest there in small ways. When economic conditions drop, prices become lower. Labor is easier to find. Everyone is more willing to serve and work hard…if you have money.

Merri and I were living in Ecuador when the sucre collapsed falling from 3,000 sucres per dollar to 24,000 sucres per dollar. This roller coaster reduced the cost of food, clothing, shelter, staff, everything local. Wages were down. Bargains were everywhere!

Merri and I were loved because we stayed. We spent. We provided jobs.

Life can actually be better in hard times…especially if you have your income and investments OUT of the depressed country.

There is a caveat. If conditions deteriorate too far, law and order can break down.  Short term this will make Ecuador’s life better. They won’t have the loan to repay…but long term, as they become more isolated from the global economy, this will hurt.

Ecuadorians are basically friendly, non violent people so I do not have any great concern about this. This is based on experience. I have lived in places where people were not quite as easy going, like Hong Kong in the 1960s when there were riots and bombing in the streets.

My belief if that Ecuador will remain a great place to be…especially for now.

Gary

Join us at a course in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Here is our latest group inspecting the hotel,which is one block from the Ecuador’s Pacific.

ecuador-real-estate-risk

We’ll view this hotel if it has not sold. It has a huge front porch.

ecuador-real-estate-risk

Large second floor veranda with ocean views.

ecuador-real-estate-risk

Beautiful flowered front yard.

ecuador-real-estate-risk

The building is really rough and needs work…but over 8,000 square feet of building. The asking price is $60,000.

We have sent our Ecuador Living paid subscribers more details on this building on this Ecuador hotel for sale. If you subscribe, you can have this report. See how to subscribe to Ecuador Living here.

Join us for our next Spanish course ad real estate tours.

Join us at a course in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Jan. 16-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Jan. 22-23 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Jan. 24-27 Coastal Real Estate Tour

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ
Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
March 10-15 Ecuador Export Expedition
March 16-19 Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one$1,349 for two

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one$1,799 for two

Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our entire schedule of 27 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009 and how to attend as many of them as you like FREE.

The course fee includes meeting at Quito airport (day before the
course)…transportation (by group bus) to Cotacachi and back to Quito.
Course fee does not include air are. accommodations, food or individual
transportation.

Multi Currency Risk Premium


Getting a multi currency risk premium is important because the government bail outs that will be announced in the weeks ahead, whatever they will be, will accelerate inflation. Multi currency risk premiums will help beat the price increases which have already been bad enough.

Emerging real estate and emerging bonds (seen below) are two ways to gain some extra multi currency premiums that can help fight this rise in costs.

The three main multi currency investments that fight inflation are:

#1: Commerce. (normally equities but sometimes bonds as shown below).

Prices have risen on these condos, but still offer an incredible value, plus until October 1, Kjetil is offering the original price (a $10,000 savings) to Ecuador Living subscribers.

For details on the units below contact Thor Anderson at thor@sanclementeecuador.com

#2: The raw materials required by commerce (commodities).

#3 Real estate (required in commerce for production and consumption).

Some real estate markets offer a better risk premium than others. This is what I like about Ecuador. So few people have been there so the majority of the investment market get it wrong. They misunderstand the politics, the people, the rumors of crime, the entire ambiance of the place. This has kept Ecuador real estate prices low. Prices are beginning to rise but are still low in terms of Latin America where a deluge of US, Canadian and European investors are now arriving.

This is why I have been harping on the $79,000 condos (where Merri and I bought) north of Manta.

Ecuador-beach-condo

I doubt that investors will ever see prices this low again in our life time for the quality of construction and so much green space. There are only 63 units on 12 are that include 5,000 fruit trees and an organic vegetable garden. (This one shown above is of course not quite finished.)

Ecuador-beach-condo-clubhouse

Plus such views like this sunset shot I took.

Ecuador-beach-condo-sunset view

Prices have risen on these condos, but still offer an incredible value, plus until October 1, Kjetil is offering the original price (a $10,000 savings) to Ecuador Living subscribers.

For details on the units below contact Thor Anderson at thor@sanclementeecuador.com

However during times (like now) when there is a lot of volatility, some investors need a place to park cash while they wait for the picture to clear.

Where is safe when even money market funds have risk?

The answer is “every type of investment has risk…especially now”. The key is to at least be properly paid for taking it.

Here is a simple fact that can help you spot distortions so you get the maximum bang for your at risk buck.

Industrialized economies seem unable to increase their output at any rate better than about 3% percent a year on a sustained basis. This seems to be a universal standard of human evolution.

This is a huge fact as it means we should not expect major economies to grow faster than about 3%.

This is a baseline that can help us sort out whether an investment has extra or too little risk premium because the baseline for safe savings than should be about the same as industrial growth…3%…if the money supply is keeping pace with the economy.

Bank accounts and government bonds, for example, are perceived as the safest investments (especially if government guaranteed). A look at their long term history shows that they pay about 3%. So if a bank account or government bond pays less…in the long term it’s bad. If it pays more…that’s better. Yet the idea is that bank accounts will not really make money. They will just keep up with growth…at 3%.

Knowing this, rather than wasting time trying to avoid risk…which cannot be done, we can assess risk and what we are paid to take it instead by asking:

#1: How much risk is there in any particular investment?

#2: What perceptions do the market have of the risk?

#3: What risk premium is due?

To get real growth requires taking risk. If an investment appears to be less safe than the safest (that pays 3%) the less safe investment will pay more than 3%. The extra payment is called a risk premium.

Bonds pay more than bank accounts because they are perceived to be less safe. Stocks pay more than bonds because they are perceived even riskier. Emerging market stocks pay more than major market stocks. Emerging market bonds pay more than major markets bonds.

Over the long run, bonds issued in countries and currencies perceived to be stable pay 5% to 7%…if they are issued in their own currencies.

Stocks in major countries should pay 7% to 10% annual return in the stock market as a function of global growth, long term earnings growth plus risk premium (above bank accounts and bonds).

To attain higher growth than 7% to 10% investors must either increase risk, trust luck or spot distortions.

This is good because the market is almost always wrong. Most investors always trying to avoid risk. Most investors dump their wealth into investments that are perceived to be safe. This creates excessive demand and lowers value and actually makes the perception wrong.

Knowing this helps wise investors spot trends created by distortions.

For example, right now short term bonds denominated in Euro issued by major market governments pay about 4.25%. One can increase yield by about 50% by buying emerging government bonds. Here are yields on some short term bonds denominated in euro.

South Africa 2013 6.22%
Philippines 2010 6.19%
Romania 2010 5.16%
Brazil 2012 6.03%
Colombia 2011 6.15%

It is not likely that any of these governments will default on their bonds in this short term…so at a time when equities are very volatile this could be a good place to get out of the US dollar, park cash in euro and still make a bit extra.

We are reviewing five emerging bond portfolios in our online multi currency course this week. You can learn them as a multi currency course subscriber

Until next message, may you get a premium for everything you do.

Gary

I’ll also review these emerging bonds and review my entire portfolio and all this thinking next weekend. October 3-5 in North Carolina at our International Investing and Business Course. Why don’t you join me.

The course was fully booked but we had many late applications and have have moved to a larger meeting room so still have space.

Join me with Thomas Fischer of Denmark’s Jyske Global Asset Management, who was a currency trader for years to review our multi currency portfolio thinking for the year ahead.

To help our subscribers meet and learn, we are giving all delegates at the North Carolina course a FREE year’s subscription to our online multi currency course. This is a $249 value.

This will not be all work-no play. We selected this particular weekend as the most likely to be beautiful with the autumnal leaf change. The colors are glorious.

autumn-gold

Here delegates at a previous course chat during a coffee break.

blue-ridge-leaf-change

Gary

Join us in North Carolina next week end October 3-5 and save $249. Enroll here.

Or join us in November to inspect Ecuador property for sale

Vistazul-Ecuador-beach-condos-model

Our September 17-20 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour; Quito Real Estate Tour was sold out as was our September 28-29 Imbabura Real Estate Tour was sold out.

Our Oct 14-18 Ecuador Import Export Course only has a couple of spaces open.
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-import-and-export-tour

We still have space in November

Join us in Cotacachi at El Meson de las Flores.

cotacachi-daybreak

Nov 7-9 International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/international-business-made-ez-ecuador

See these condos at $46,000 in Cotacachi.

Nov 10-11 Imbabura Real Estate tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-real-estat

Dine with delegates at the Vistazul clubhouse.

Ecuador-fishng-view-4

November 12-15, 2008 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour; Quito Real Estate Tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-coastal-real-estate-tour

Small Business Starts


Small business starts are important because your own small business is one of the best ways to fight inflation and hard economic times. Yet the most frequent question I hear about starting small business is “where and how should I start my small business.

The answer to this begins with two questions:

Small business starting question #1: How much time do you have to start a small business.

Small business starting question #2: How much money do you have to start a small business.

The answers are often related but in the end most people are in one of five
positions.

Small business start up position #1: Plenty of time and enough money to live on and start a business.

Small business start up position #2: Plenty of time and enough money to live on but not enough to start a business.

Small business start up position #3: Plenty of time but not enough money to live on (or start a business).

Small business start up position #4: Enough money to live on and start a business but no time.

Small business start up position #5: No time and no money.

Interestingly enough position #5 is safest (not much to lose) and position #1 has the greatest risk for small business start ups. Small business start up position #1 suggests some previous success and or inherited money. Either position can make one over confident and encourage, “full steam ahead!”

Full steam is not often the best way to begin a small business. I always recommend that people start small…limited steam in a very directed way. Open the small business stopcocks nice and slow.

Small beginnings are nature’s way. Most businesses start with a learning curve. During the beginning and in the initial learning period, it is essential to remain small as you err. Once lessons have been learned, the business can grow using business evolutionary cycle.

The small business evolutionary cycle is

#1: Get an idea

#2; The idea leads to enthusiasm.

#3: The enthusiasm leads to education.

#4: The education leads to action.

#5: The action leads to profit or loss but also more ideas.

The cycle repeats and this is the way that businesses should grow.

My businesses never really started in a full steam ahead mode. In a way I have always had one business, but it has morphed again and again, each new development being financed by the old. Each new development has always been (to Merri, me and we hope our clients) better.

I began as a Prudential Insurance agent selling door to door in Portland Oregon.

That beginning was financed by working in a gas station while I learned and trained to sell.

Selling insurance in Portland led to selling American investments door to door in Hong Kong. This was really the only full time jump I made. I nearly starved! And I learned. Yet even then I was still selling door to door…with the same tactics just for a different product in a different place.

I learned (as I starved) that the different product and place required different tactics.

This started the evolution and due to traffic congestion in HK, I began putting on seminars to sell US investments more efficiently. Then I created a small newsletter to keep in touch with the investment salesmen I hired.

small-business-sales-team

These were the salesmen i motivated with my first newsletter. That was a good idea and both part time efforts (the newsletter and seminars) were financed originally by my door to door selling of US investments!

But this approach was flawed. In the early 1970s, I was living in Hong Kong selling US mutual funds. This was when the Hong Kong stock market first began to emerge. Share prices in Hong Kong rose and rose. This was also the first time the U.S. stock market had collapsed in twenty years.

To be frank U.S. investments then, sucked. Hong Kong investments were good.

That idea changed my business. I began writing newsletters and reports about Hong Kong investments for Americans and how US investors could make more money abroad.

This was a good idea but ahead of its time so I did this part time and financed the new effort with my existing business…selling US investments in Hong Kong.

As my income grew from the new activity (selling HK investment ideas to Americans) I saw investment opportunity beyond Hong Kong. I moved to London. There was more international investing knowledge and information available there. I began selling reports about investing in gold, silver, Swiss francs, Australia, England and Germany.

I tried many business ideas in London. Here is a shot that was in a London daily, part of a PR  program to help sell square inches of Graceland after Elvis died. That was a really bad idea.   I am very glad  I started that one small!

small-business-in-london

This move to London was financed by selling HK investments to Americans.

Then I saw other Asian countries beginning to have great potential. I began researching there and as phone rates dropped and the fax came along, I saw that I could get out of the big city and moved to Naples, Florida, then a sleepy fishing village… closer to my North American clients. My seminar business boomed financed by my London business.

Then in the early 1990s saw potential in Latin America and in Smalltown USA.

I began researching and traveling in these places part time…financed by my existing efforts in Florida.

Finally as Naples became crowded, because of the Internet, we were able to move to isolated farms both in The Blue Ridge and in Ecuador and still have access to any international investment business information and stay in touch with my clients.

My internet business began in a small way as well…as a supplement to my print business…not earning much…until gradually it became the only way we do business.

Each step in our business growth has been a gradual evolution financed by the last.

Each time we began the new part of our business in a small way, crept along and learned until it grew and took over to become our core.

Today our business on the farm and in Ecuador create the largest part of our income.

What’s next?

I do not know. You’ll find out as I do and my business evolves once more.

What I do know is that whatever ideas emerge the ones that enthuse me will be the ones I follow…in a small way. I will test them…in some small way…not expecting to make enough to live on. Some will survive ad grow. Others will be discarded.

Whatever your time and money position, you can begin your own business by looking for ideas that create enthusiasm in you. When you feel excited in a field start to educate yourself. Learn about the idea and then test small business ideas. Use a little time and or capital. Try…read…ask…learn. Tkae small risks.

After that if you still feel good…go for it in a larger way and let your small business evolve from there.

If you have little money start a business that uses your time and energy (as i did as a salesman) as your capital.

The is the era when small is beautiful so until next message may your success to begin be fulfilling but small!

Gary

We offer two emailed courses to help you start a small business.

International Business Made EZ

Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher

Readers are proving again and again that having a small business is smart! One reader just shared this note:

Gary: This is Randy. I have been a subscriber of your newsletter for a long, long, time and I LOVE it. I just thought that I would chip in a comment about your comments about Labor as we are approaching Labor Day. I thought for years that Manuel Labor was a Latino and then I got involved in creating my company and found out differently. That is supposed to be a joke. Seriously, we started FFI November 2, 2005 and we have grown to over $200,000,000. And are shipping our products to over 200 Countries and territories and we are primarily an Internet company doing eCommerce. I agree with you that if one is doing something they truly love, it is not considered work, but a labor of love. My wife (Wendy) and I have traveled to over 81 countries during the last couple of years speaking to people about our products, and expressing our passion for what we do, and today we have over 200,000+ people selling our products face-to-face and the rest of our sales are on the Internet. Anyone that has a determination to succeed and have enough knowledge of Internet marketing can distribute their products.Keep up the good work of delivering your message with no hype, but telling the truth. Your Friend, Randy”

We offer seminar courses to help you start your own small business as well .

International Investing and Business Made EZ North Carolina October 3-5

Ecuador Ecuador Import Export Course October 14-18

This export course has been working well. One reader just wrote:

“Good Evening Gary/Merri/Steve, Speaking of a small business, we have opened All American Enterprises, LLC (AAE) which includes selling products from Ecuador at a trade days operation about 200 miles East of Dallas. I don’t know if we are off to a “bang” but we are sure having fun. See attached pictures to include our model, Consuella.

small-business-ecuador-exports

Please tell Mary we have made profit on our inventory and the big sellers are alpaca silver jewelry and Octovalo alpaca ponchos. We will visit with Steve at the end of September and would like to restock to include blankets/ponchos/throws from Hilana. Does Mary have the contact for wholesale Hilana products? Say hi to Ma and the cats, too. Bob and Dot”

small-business-from-ecuador

International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador
November 7-9, 2008

See discounts for couples attending more than one course.

Here is another comment from delagtes who attended the import export course

“Hi Gary & Merri. Our business of selling Ecuador products is still going well. We are now appointing Agents across Australia and should have the whole country covered by mid-August. Our initial shops continue to re-order on a regular basis. The best shops seem to re-order every two weeks.We have also received inquiry to provide buying services for people in a few other countries. So we will be seriously thinking about starting our own brand name to market globally. If successful, it should help many Ecuadorians.We have appointed a national distributor for our Andes Artisans products (www.andes-artisans.com) so we will be leaving Australia to live in Ecuador soon. Thank you again John & Dixie.”

Ecuador Ecuador Import Export Course October 14-18

Multi Currency Paths of Opportunity


Multi currency paths of opportunity come in totally unique ways.

For example I have been looking for multi currency investments in Asian currencies.

The path that has led me to a Malaysian share has included a combination of experience, alertness, intuition, our own specific knowledge and contacts and good luck.

A circuitous multi currency route led me to shares in PureCircle a Malaysian company traded on the London Stock Exchange.

Pure Circle sells Stevia to Pepsi Cola and Coca Cola.

Let’s look at how I came to see potential in these shares in the hopes that studying my approach will help yu understand the process better so you can adapt the process to better fit your individual circumstances.

First, this path (to PureCircle) began because I have known about for Stevia for quite some time.

I wrote about it at this site in an article entitled Three Foundations of Health in the Fall in September 2002.

Second I know that blood sugar problems and diabetes are huge Western problems. Problems create opportunity. This is why we looked at the Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk that specializes in insulin in June (2008). Plus again in another June article Multi Currency Equity Investments.

I also know that the natural health industry is growing. I wrote about this as early as July 2003 at Healthy Investing=Wealth #7

That is the past me…some ideas I believe in. Ideas that create convictions…that could help me invest

Then there is chance…in this case an article I wrote two weeks ago that mentions stevia. The article is entitled Protein Blackberry Pie Recipe

Plus there are my unique contacts…in this case my friend and London stock broker Barrie Martin. He wrote:

“Gary, Your cobbler recipe prompts me to send you details of a new war in the soft drinks industry over Stevia. Kind Regards Barrie”

Barrie included an August 6, 2008 article by Sarah Hills entitled “PureCircle could be winner in Pepsi v Coca-Cola stevia wars”

The article says:

“As both PepsiCo and Coca-Cola gear up to launch beverages sweetened with stevia, it could be that their common supplier, PureCircle, is the real winner in the race to be first to market.

PureCircle, a Malaysian company has just signed long-term contracts to supply PepsiCo and its partner the Whole Earth Sweetener Company with its all-natural, zero-calorie sweetener, Reb-A, under the PureVia brand. In addition, it has been granted an exclusive license to market Reb-A as PureVia as long as there is no conflict of interest, according to Peter Milsted, sales and marketing director at PureCircle.

This is on top of PureCircle’s contract to supply Cargill, which teamed up with Coca-Cola to develop their own stevia-derived product called Truvia in response to strong consumer demand for low-calorie products.
The beverage giants are preparing to launch drinks sweetened with stevia, which is permitted for sale in the US as a dietary supplement on the basis of its low glycemic index, but is yet to be generally recognized as safe (GRAS) by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for use in beverages.

However, Milsted told FoodNavigator-USA.com: “We are absolutely assuming that this product will be free to use in the USA from here on in.

“We supply high purity Reb-A both to Cargill and to PepsiCo. We started off with an exclusive contact with Cargill. That ended a few weeks ago. We have extended the contract for a further length of time on a non-exclusive basis.

He explained that it had been the company’s strategy initial to be a “market maker as oppose to being part of somebody’s supply chain”.

Milsted said that Cargill was happy to accept the change in contract as long as it was assured of continued supply, which reflected PureCircle’s ability to “supply consistently and at serious volumes”.

Likewise, he claimed that PepsiCo was happy for PureVia to be exploited as widely as it can, as long as it wasn’t used in areas of competition, such as similar drinks.

And he predicts that other companies will follow their lead and use Reb-A as a sweetener.

Milsted said: “We aim to carry on and make the investments that we have made already in our supply chain and are continuing to make, and that they lead to large contracts with large suppliers.

“We are talking pretty much with every food and beverage manufacturer that anybody has every heard of and the interest is strong and genuine.”

Supply volumes

In November PureCircle said it would float on London’s AIM in a bid to raise $50m to expand Reb-A (Rebaudioside-A) sweetener production and secure an advantage in anticipation of an explosion in demand.
The company said at the time that global annual consumption of sugar and all other sweeteners was an estimated 150m tonnes. PureCircle’s Reb-A accounted for just 0.2 per cent of this volume (0.3m tonnes).

The company owned a 55 per cent stake in a subsidiary called Ganzhou Julong, which is involved in large-scale stevia plantation and production of crude extracts. PureCircle believed its capacity for crude stevia extraction was the largest in the world at 1000 tonnes of crude extract are produced per annum.

By the end of this year it predicted that it would increase this to 3000 tonnes per annum.

Stevia market

Reb-A is the sweetest, purest part of the leaf from the South American stevia plant, which is approximately 200 times as sweet as sugar.

The US market for stevia is estimated to be worth about $60m, a figure analysts say could triple if FDA GRAS is granted. Currently the biggest markets for stevia are Japan and Korea.

Whole Earth, a subsidiary of Merisant Company, has submitted a notification and supporting scientific data to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) that PureVia is generally recognized as safe (GRAS) for use in beverages, foods and tabletop sweeteners.

The US’s largest supplier of stevia, Wisdom Natural Brands, announced in June that it is launching the natural sweetener beyond the dietary supplements aisle for the first time, after having self-affirmed its version of stevia – Sweet Leaf – as GRAS. It said at the time that the ingredient will be available in a soda or food products by the year’s end.

Coca-Cola and Cargill also recently published science backing their ingredient, Truvia.

Last week PepsiCo told FoodNavigator-USA.com that it would prefer to wait for FDA approval before bringing PureVia to consumers in the United States. But it will debut in a new nutritionally enhanced PepsiCo beverage called SoBe Life, to be launched in Latin America, starting with Peru next month. It will then be rolled out globally.

There you have it…ideas about health…ideas about the future of health and natural health…a friend who is a stock broker and an article about blackberry pie. These ideas are all magnified by the marketing powers of Coke and Pepsi.

The entire natural health industry has failed to mae stevia a public name. These two soft drink manufacturers can.

This is not a formula you will find in any book on investing.

This is a unique path that has led me to consider a share.

We will all have unique paths that lead us to investments we can consider.

We cannot and should not buy them all. So at this stage we have the good value test to conduct.

Remember what we look for are shares of:

#1: Well managed companies.

#2: In growth industries.

#3: Available at a good value.

#4: With rising earnings.

#5: That have captured the attention of the market (ie price is already on the rise).

You can gain a good value evaluation of the PureCircle shares as a Multi Currency Portfolios Course subscriber.

Gary

Join me with Jyske Global Asset Management to learn more about value investing.

International Investing and Business Made EZ North Carolina

International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador