Tag Archive | "keppler"

Top Value Developed Markets in March


Invest in Spain and Italy now?

The places with the greatest opportunity are often those that seem most unlikely.  That’s why we use the math from Keppler Asset Management to spot stock market value… not trends.

One benefit of a Purposeful Investing Course subscription is updates on the Keppler Asset Management’s Good Value Country Selection Strategies.  

Here is a portion of the eight page update for the March 2020 developed markets selections strategies that was sent to Pi subscribers last week.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Keppler

Recent Developments & Outlook

After a poor start in the first two months of the New Year, developed markets suffered their fifth-worst monthly decline in the 50-year history of the MSCI World Index in March.

The loss in the first quarter of 20.1% also ranks as the fifth worst since the start of the Index in January 1970.

Last month, the cap.-weighted MSCI World Index (ND) fell 12.8% in local currencies,13.2 % in US dollars and 13.1 % in euros.

The MSCI World Index with net dividends reinvested (December 1969 = 100) now stands at LC4,213, $5,455 and €2,638.

The euro declined 0.1% to 1.0973 vs. the US dollar in March.

Year-to-date it is down 2.2%. For a second month in a row, all twenty-three markets in the MSCI World Index were lower in March.

The markets losing least were Denmark (-3.7%), Switzerland (-4.7%) and Japan (-7.1%).

Austria (-31.6%), Italy (-22.4%) and Spain (-22.0%) performed worst.

In the last fifteen months, eight markets were up and fifteen markets were down.

In that period,New Zealand (+30.6%), Denmark (+22.8%)and Switzerland (+14.9%) performed best, while Austria (-31.9%), Spain (-18.0 %) and Belgium (-15.5%) had the lowest returns.

Performance is in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

The Top Value Model Portfolio, which is based on the Top Value Strategy (December1969 = 100) using national MSCI country indices as hypothetical investment vehicles, finished March at LC40,134 (-17.3%), $28,491 (-18.7%) and €13,777 (-18.6%).

In the last fifteen months, the Top Value Model Portfolio was down 11.2% in local currencies,
15.6% in US dollars and 12.1% in euros.

For details on the recent performance of national MSCI indices, benchmarks and strategies in local currencies, US dollars and euros, please see page 6.

There is no change in our country ratings this month. The Top Value Model Portfolio holds the nine “Buy-rated markets Austria, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom at equal weights.

According to our analyses, an equally weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The table below shows how the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to three alternatives at the end of March 2020 based on selected valuation and return measures.

According to our analyses, the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfoliois now undervalued by 44% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index, by 55% compared to the MSCI USA Index and by a whopping 68% compared to the MSCI World Growth Index.

Get the entire eight page update when you subscribe to the Purposeful Investing Course.

Stock Investing In the New World

On January 12, 2020, I asked subscribers this question:

“Will the 2020 stock market decade be more like the 2000s decade or the 2010 decade?”

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  You can see that bubble pop just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

For the past four years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course to determine which markets offer the best value and now sit in a perfect position to take advantage of the global stock market correction.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

 I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but currently we have a Pandemic offer for our International Club.  It’s a better option to be a club member as you receive Pi at no charge and save the $299.

Club members also receive two more reports I’ll send about the most exciting opportunities I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become an International Club member you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the past two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip” updated in late 2018.   The report explained the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

Save $598.23… when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program including SNAP”.  Free.

#2: The $299 Purposeful investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”.  Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2019”.  Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.   All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report.  Free.

#7: Plus updates and other report I release in the year ahead.

These reports, courses and programs would cost $767.73.

The International Club membership is $349 so the 2020 membership normally saves $418.78. 

However due to the COVID-19 Pandemic we have cut membership in half and are currently accepting the discounted membership of $174.50 today.  You save $598.23 instead!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your membership at just $99 a year rather than $349.  Your membership will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel membership at any time.

Save $598.23.  Join the International Club for just $174.5o.   Receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons through the rest of 2020 and into of 2021  at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $174.50

Become an International Club member today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

How to Invest Now


The bull market has well and truly ended.  Welcome to bear territory and the opportunity it brings.

This should have been expected.  The drop has been deeper and swifter than most would have thought,  but this should not bother us too much.

The fact that the coronavirus has spread so fast, and so many are ill, this could bother us.

Seeing so many people suffer economically, around us and globally, in so many ways… yes that’s bad.

Reading daily about the US, and so many other countries, in political turmoil… that’s terrible.

Finding that the stock market is correcting from terribly high prices.  That’s not so bad.

The correction and the current stock market bear we see are part of a normal long term process .  This correction creates opportunity.

I began investing more heavily in 2010 and began selling in 2019.  I have liquidated about 35% of my major investments in the last year, so have been sitting on a pile of cash (aka US gvt bond ETFs) asking, “what’s next”.

Now I’m pretty sure of “what’s next”.  I’ll invest in more good value shares.

The question is “when”.

To get some background on this, let’s look at at previous bear markets to see “when” it was best to invest more.

This chart below shows the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for over 100 years (since Feb.1919).  It’s interactive and I recommend looking it over.  Click here. Macroeconomics.net

stock chart

Let’s look at what happened to the Dow Jones Industrial Average at various points in each bear market over the past 100 years.

In July 1929 the DJIA rose to an all time high of 5,198.  Then it collapsed to 814 by June 1932.  The index did not regain that previous high number again until December 1958.

That full recovery took 29 years for investors who invested at the Dow’s all time high.

If an investor entered a Dow Jones Industrial Index ETF (if they had existed in that era) after the index had fallen 30%  to 3,648 in July 1930, it still took 24 years for the index to recover to 3,733 in November 1954, or about 24 years.

However if an investor invested in the index after it fell 40% to 3,119 in February 1931, he or she only waited a bit over five years to November 1936 when it reached 3,324.

However… and note the trend as it repeats in each recovery, after achieving it’s high again, it dropped back and stayed below its all time high until August 1954.

Fast forward to the next bear that began in 1966. The DJIA reached a high of 7,884 in December 1966.

Investors who invested right at that top, did not see a recovery until August 1995 when the Dow reached 7,801, in about 30 years.

Investors who entered the market 30% below the 1965 high (5,519 in Sept 1969) saw it recover by March 1973 but then slipped until June 1987 and then immediately slipped again to September 1991.  The full convincing recovery took about 26 years.

Investors however who waited until the DJIA fell 40% to 4,731 in December 1973 saw a recovery in January 1987, but again the index immediately slipped and did not reach that level again until August 1988, about 15 years.

In other words it took a full 15 years for a full convincing recovery.

The next DJIA high came in December 1999 at 17,671.

When this bear began, the index reached a 30% loss (12,370) by August 2002.

Those who jumped in then saw a quick recovery by June 2003.

The DJIA then rose into the 17,000 again, but fell quickly yet and the 30% loss range was not reached again until October 2010.

Those who waited for a 40% (10,603) fall missed the recovery completely. The Dow’s lowest point was 11,220 before it began the bull that just ended and rose to 28,738

The DJIA has already fallen over 30% from this latest all time high when it fell below to 19,730 on Friday March 20,2020.

A 35% drop will bring the index to 18,680. A 40% drop will bring it to 17,243.

This review provides three clues.

It suggests that the time from an all time high to the next takes decades, but the periods between them are becoming shorter.

There are also suggestions that investments in the Dow after a 30% drop have a mini crash after their first recovery.

In the last bear and bull, the crash never reached a 40% drop.

Investors who want to time markets and get in right at the bottom, might have a pretty good wait if history repeats.  Those who increase their portfolios after a 30% drop can also have a considerable wait as well, but if they put of much longer they’ll miss the rebound.

This current market correction has been expected.  During global secular equity markets, value shares are likely to drop along with growth equities.

Traditionally, value shares will fall less and recover sooner and more.

In the current valuations we should see a stronger recovery in value shares than with growth shares.

Learn how to get the Keppler Global good value stock market data  below.

Gary

Stock Investing In the New World

On January 12, 2020, I asked subscribers this question:

“Will the 2020 stock market decade be more like the 2000s decade or the 2010 decade?”

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  You can see that bubble pop just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

For the past four years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course to determine which markets offer the best value and now sit in a perfect position to take advantage of the global stock market correction.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

 I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but currently we have a Pandemic offer for our International Club.  It’s a better option to be a club member as you receive Pi at no charge and save the $299.

Club members also receive two more reports I’ll send about the most exciting opportunities I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become an International Club member you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the past two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip” updated in late 2018.   The report explained the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

Save $598.23… when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program including SNAP”.  Free.

#2: The $299 Purposeful investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”.  Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2019”.  Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.   All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report.  Free.

#7: Plus updates and other report I release in the year ahead.

These reports, courses and programs would cost $767.73.

The International Club membership is $349 so the 2020 membership normally saves $418.78. 

However due to the COVID-19 Pandemic we have cut membership in half and are currently accepting the discounted membership of $174.50 today.  You save $598.23 instead!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your membership at just $99 a year rather than $349.  Your membership will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel membership at any time.

Save $598.23.  Join the International Club for just $174.5o.   Receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons through the rest of 2020 and into of 2021  at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $174.50

Become an International Club member today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

An Unusual Developed Versus Emerging Market Comparison


Currently developed markets offer better value than emerging markets.  

Normally, emerging markets sell at a considerably lower price-to-book than developed markets.  This is not the case starting in February 2020 and remaining in March.

pixabay

Keppler’s Top Value analysis names nine “Buy”-rated developed markets;  Austria, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom at equal weights.

According to Keppler’s analyses, an equally weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

According to his analyses, the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is now undervalued by 40% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index, by 52% compared to the MSCI USA Index and 65 % compared to the MSCI World Growth Index.

The Emerging Markets Equities are not quite as attractive, now undervalued by 40 % compared to the MSCI World Index and by 58% compared to the MSCI EM Growth Index.

The Top Value Model Portfolio includes twelve markets Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia,Taiwan and Turkey at equal weights.

In addition to these undervaluations, the developed markets also pay a higher average dividend (4.21%) compared to the 4.01% average dividend paid by the top value emerging markets.

The developed markets are also selling at lower price-to-book, 1.23 compared to 1.28 for emerging markets.

Our Pifolio began with a 70% developed and 30% emerging balance, but currently we are adding 75% developed markets to 25% emerging.  While all these markets offer good value, developed markets pay a better return and traditionally are less volatile than emerging markets.

As equity markets approach all time highs and the global economy struggles with concerns over immigration, demographics and resource transition, developed markets offer more stability and currently better value as well.

Gary

Stock Investing In the New World

On January 12, 2020, I asked subscribers this question:

“Will the 2020 stock market decade be more like the 2000s decade or the 2010 decade?”

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  You can see that bubble pop just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

For the past four years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course to determine which markets offer the best value and now sit in a perfect position to take advantage of the global stock market correction.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

 I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but currently we have a Pandemic offer for our International Club.  It’s a better option to be a club member as you receive Pi at no charge and save the $299.

Club members also receive two more reports I’ll send about the most exciting opportunities I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become an International Club member you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the past two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip” updated in late 2018.   The report explained the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

Save $598.23… when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program including SNAP”.  Free.

#2: The $299 Purposeful investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”.  Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2019”.  Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.   All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report.  Free.

#7: Plus updates and other report I release in the year ahead.

These reports, courses and programs would cost $767.73.

The International Club membership is $349 so the 2020 membership normally saves $418.78. 

However due to the COVID-19 Pandemic we have cut membership in half and are currently accepting the discounted membership of $174.50 today.  You save $598.23 instead!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your membership at just $99 a year rather than $349.  Your membership will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel membership at any time.

Save $598.23.  Join the International Club for just $174.5o.   Receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons through the rest of 2020 and into of 2021  at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $174.50

Become an International Club member today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

Top Value Developed Markets in February


One benefit of a Purposeful Investing Course subscription is updates on the Keppler Asset Management’s Good Value Country Selection Strategies.  

Here is a portion of the eight page update for the February 2020 developed markets selections strategies that was sent to Pi subscribers last week.

Recent Developments & Outlook

While the average developed market lost 1.0% in January, the cap.-weighted MSCI World Index (ND) declined only 0.3% in local currencies and 0.6% in US dollars.

Due to renewed dollar strength, however, it gained 0.7% in euros last month.

The MSCI World Index with net dividends reinvested (December 1969 = 100) now stands a tLC 5,259, $6,868 and €3,288.

The euro declined 1.3 percent to 1.1082 USD/EUR in January, i.e. it is down 3.1% in the last thirteen months.

Ten markets were higher last month and thirteen markets declined.

The best-performing markets in January were Portugal (+6.1%), Australia (+5.1%)and Israel (+4.7%).

Austria (-5.0%), Hong Kong (-4.8 %) and the United Kingdom (-3.3%) performed worst.

In the last thirteen months, all twenty-three markets included in the MSCI World Index were up.

Over that period, New Zealand (+42.2%), Ireland (+35.5%) and Portugal (+33.6%) performed best.

Hong Kong (+4.6%), Norway (+9.8%), and Israel (+10.0%) had the lowest returns in the last thirteen months.

Performance is in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

In the last thirteen months, the Top Value Model Portfolio was up 15.7% in local currencies, 13.5% in US dollars and 17.1% in euros.

There is no change in our country ratings this month. The Top Value Model Portfolio holds the ten “Buy”-rated markets Australia, Austria, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom at equal weights.

According to Keppler’s analyses, an equally weighted combination of the markets above offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The table of Developed Markets Top Value comparisons  showed that the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is now undervalued by 39% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index, by 51% compared to the MSCI USA Index and by a whopping 63% compared to the MSCI World Growth Index.

Gary

Get the entire eight page update when you subscribe to the Purposeful Investing Course.

Stock Investing In the New World

On January 12, 2020, I asked subscribers this question:

“Will the 2020 stock market decade be more like the 2000s decade or the 2010 decade?”

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  You can see that bubble pop just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

For the past four years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course to determine which markets offer the best value and now sit in a perfect position to take advantage of the global stock market correction.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

 I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but currently we have a Pandemic offer for our International Club.  It’s a better option to be a club member as you receive Pi at no charge and save the $299.

Club members also receive two more reports I’ll send about the most exciting opportunities I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become an International Club member you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the past two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip” updated in late 2018.   The report explained the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

Save $598.23… when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program including SNAP”.  Free.

#2: The $299 Purposeful investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”.  Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2019”.  Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.   All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report.  Free.

#7: Plus updates and other report I release in the year ahead.

These reports, courses and programs would cost $767.73.

The International Club membership is $349 so the 2020 membership normally saves $418.78. 

However due to the COVID-19 Pandemic we have cut membership in half and are currently accepting the discounted membership of $174.50 today.  You save $598.23 instead!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your membership at just $99 a year rather than $349.  Your membership will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel membership at any time.

Save $598.23.  Join the International Club for just $174.5o.   Receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons through the rest of 2020 and into of 2021  at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $174.50

Become an International Club member today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

Three Words Create a FAB Idea


Here are three steps we can take to have a fabulous lifestyle.

These steps, that can create a fab future, can be summed in three words, “Change… Our… Perception”.

ecuador-car-rentals

This was my first car when I turned 16, a powder blue 58 Chevy.  That seemed like a great car… then.  I would not want to drive it (even if it were new) much now.  Human nature causes us to look at the past as “good old days”.   Production standards have risen a lot in recent decades but, by romancing the past, we can forget how much better so many products are now.

We tend to look at the past with rose colored glasses.  The past becomes “the good old days” even when they were not so good.  This rosy tint is created by a form of memory bias, called “Fading Affect Bias” or FAB.  FAB is caused by a neurobiological reaction in many mammals.  FAB makes positive events in our past more attractive than negative events.  As time passes, we remember the events that made us feel good more than those that made us feel bad.

FAB is great in some ways.  Dwelling on past negatives (except to learn and improve from them) does not get us anywhere.  Nor does “downer thinking” feel good.  The downside is that FAB allows us to fool ourselves into making errors, such as thinking that returning to the past will make the future better.  FAB can rob us of the excitement and adventure of living in such wonderful times of opportunity right now.

For example, a Wall Street Journal article “Economists Disagree With Voters Who See U.S. Worse Off Today Than in 1960s” (1) reviews a poll that asked if life in America is better today than 50 years ago.   A plurality of 46% said things were worse now.  Only 34% said life today is better than in the 1960s.

Yet 88% of economists who were asked in a poll said the U.S. is better today than in 1960 and 87% see today as better than 1980.

The facts are clear.  Industrialized society has seen a six times increase in wealth in the last century.  Almost everyone is richer even though most of the world has become cynical.  Modern communications allow us to better see growing discrepancies between the rich and poor.  This clearer picture of reality creates anger, turmoil, hatred and war.

There are many factors that make it seem like the quality of life has deteriorated in the past few decades.  Wages and available jobs have deteriorated for some groups, especially men without high-school diplomas and men working in manufacturing.  This is a large group so this change is often covered in the news.

Uncertainty is far higher.  Americans, overall, may be wealthier than in the past, but faster change and destructive technology have created more uncertain times in the labor market.  There are not many cradle to grave jobs left.  This might seem like bad news for those who have forgotten the messages contained in “The Man in the Gray Flannel Suit”.

Plus the technology of connectiveness makes the world a less connected place.  Our interface with so many businesses are with computers, recordings, algorithms, websites, instead of people.  No mater how good these contacts are, none of them are much of a match for a human voice that asks, “How are you?  How can I help?” and means it.

When we are turned into numbers instead of names and when we lose human contact, we feel caught in more of a hostile, frustrating, uncaring habitat.

The difference between the rich and the poor everywhere makes many people unhappy.  The US has one of the worst discrepancies between the top and bottom 10% of wealth.  This is good if you want to be really rich.  The US is a great place to become rich but we Americans need to reduce this income discrepancy.

Yet the fact remains that wealth is growing around the world and that US standards and growth are among the best.

One of the core principles of our investing and business philosophy for almost 50 years has been to live, bank and invest where it is best for you, not just where you were born.  This does NOT mean that where you were born and live is not the best place to be or to invest.  

Merri and I have lived all over the world, the US, London, Ecuador, Dominican Republic, Isle of Man, England, Germany and Hong Kong.  We choose to live in the USA.   This is the best place for us, for now, based on our  particular circumstances.  Yet we are not investing in US shares.  The US economy and stock market have incredible opportunity, but right now investors pay way too much for the US shares.  The USA is a great place to be but the US stock market as a whole is overvalued.

Europe is a great place to be right now as well and the MSCI USA Index Price to Book Value is 40% higher than the MSCI Europe Index.  The US Index’s average dividend yield is 71% lower than Europe’s.

keppler chart

The best value is the Keppler Developed Markets Top Value Portfolio.  The price to book value of this portfolio is 1.27 compared to the MSCI US index of 2.81.   We can can enjoy the benefits of living in the US, or wherever is best us, but we can also invest in stocks where they give us the best value.

Here are three ways to change our perceptions so we can enjoy and profit from the “Good Now Days”.

#1: Realize that it is human nature to look at the past through rose colored glasses as well as to resist change.  We can avoid making this error and look for ways that such incorrect thinking creates value in the here and now.

#2: Measure the here and now in factual mathematical terms instead of drama laden daily news.  Use financial information instead of advertising driven, subscription based economic news.

#3:  We can look for and at the current successes all around us instead of focusing on failures.  We can seek understanding of why these successes are working now and look for ways to incorporate such lessons into our lives.

These three steps can help us create a fab lifestyle of excitement, adventure and fulfillment right now.

Gary

(1) http://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-disagree-with-voters-who-see-u-s-worse-off-today-than-in-1960s-1463061602

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

How to Really Make America Great Again


What does  it take for us to make America great again?   The answer can be summed in three words, “Change… Our… Perception”.

One of the core principles of our investing and business philosophy for almost 50 years has been to live, bank and invest where  it is best for you, not just where you were born.  This does NOT mean that where you were born and lived is not the best place to be or to invest.

This is why Merri and I are living in he USA and investing in US real estate but not US shares.   The chart below shows that the USA is a great place to be.

ecd char

OECD chart in Economist magazine (1).

However, if one listens to the various politicians stumping for office, it would seem as if the country has become a basket case.  This incorrect dialogue can throw our perspective astray, so let’s readjust our view by looking at some facts:

#1: Industrialized society has seen a six times increase in wealth in the last century.

#2:  Almost everyone is richer but most of the world has become cynical. Modern communications allows us to better see growing discrepancies between the rich and poor. Few people have confidence in governments, big business, or even some churches.

#3: This growing gap between the rich and the poor is leading to greater and greater turmoil, hatred and war.

This anger ignores the fact that we have all become better off and the USA is one of the greatest places to live.

The OECD began publishing a “Better Life Initiative” in May 2011.   The attempt is to bring together internationally comparable measures of well-being.

Well Being includes: Housing, Income, Jobs, Community, Education, Governance, Health, Life Satisfaction, Safety and Work-life balance.

The US has highest net disposable income,  household net financial wealth and personal earnings, by far.  See the latest findings as of May 2016 at the OECD website (1).   The US ranks well in almost every category.

Warren Buffett has a message about this for presidential candidates who have been spreading doom and gloom about the United States.  He says:  “America is great, and her children will inherit a better country than the previous generation. The babies being born in America today are the luckiest crop in history.”

Economic fundamentals support Buffet’s claim.

The tidal flow of economic opportunity is pushed by supply and demand.  As the global population grows, new technology allows a larger population to be increasingly productive.  Population (demand) and production (supply) grow.   These are the underlying ground swells that push a rising tide of wealth in the global economy.  We have a growing population, improved technology and increased production.  This means there are more services and products (supply) and more people to buy them (demand).

Wealth is growing around the world.  The US growth is one of the best of the developed worlds. 

The Federal Reserve Statistical Release of March 10, 2016 for the fourth quarter of 2015 shows that the net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $86.8 trillion.  The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $758 billion.  The value of real estate rose over 450 billion.

Financial Accounts of the United States Flow of Funds, Balance Sheets, and Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts: (Source Federal Reserve) (2).

Federal Reserve

There is, however, a growing inequality of wealth.   The US has one of the worst discrepancies between the top and bottom 10% of wealth.  This is good if you want to be really rich.  The US is a great place to become rich.

The difference between the rich and the poor makes many people unhappy.  We Americans need  to work on that, so it is an opportunity.

We may not personally be able to totally change all inequality, but we can help.  We can do many things to assure that we are not among the poor and to make sure that what we do also helps reduce income inequality.

This is why I named our course on value investing the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  We need profit from our investments, but also need our investments to have a purpose that is meaningful to us as individuals.

This is also why I am not investing in US shares.  Many factors such as natural resources, efficiency, distribution of wealth and confidence cause a steady rise and fall of value of shares.

There is so much confidence in the US right now that investors pay way too much for the US shares.

This is why we need to always seek value.  The US is a great place to be but the US stock market as a whole is overvalued.

The MSCI USA Index Price to Book Value is 40% higher than the MSCI Europe Index.  The US index’s average dividend yield is 71% lower than Europe’s.

keppler chart

The best value is the Keppler Developed Markets Top Value Portfolio.  The price to book value of this portfolio is 1.27 compared to the MSCI US index of 2.81.   You can enjoy the benefits of living in the US, or wherever is best for you, but invest in stocks where they give you the best value.

Gary

(1) http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/06/daily-chart-1

(2) http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?DataSetCode=BLI#

(3) https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1.pdf

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investing Alternatives With Value


Live where you love but invest where it is best for you.  The two places are not always the same so always take a more global view.  Look for investing alternatives with value everywhere.

One of the huge tensions that creates so much stress today is that political evolution has not kept pace with commercial gains.  Many people still think of themselves as a member of one tribe or another. “I am American or I am Chinese or I am Iranian,”   They separate themselves emotionally from other human beings in this guise… yet marry them in the market place.  This is one reason why the political drama has become so.  Prime Ministers, presidents, parliamentarians, politicians and candidates of all sorts spend all their time bashing opponents instead of outlining some semblance of a a policy or plan that will guide their nations.

This is because events of all national leaders is beyond their control.   This has always been the case… leaders cannot control all those within their jurisdiction. They have even less influence with those outside their borders.  Due to technology and the logic of global economics… those living outside another nation’s borders have far more impact than ever before.

Winston Churchill acknowledged this thought when he said, “If the Almighty were to rebuild the world and asked me for advice, I would have English Channels round every country. And the atmosphere would be such that anything which attempted to fly would be set on fire.”

Pandora has well and truly opened that box so there we have it… a global economy running a tribal political world.

We cannot change this fact, but we can adapt. We can use the technology to live where we love but invest and earn where it is best for us.

For example, a reader wrote:  Hello Gary…I am coming to Ecuador soon, hopefully with my husband.  I wonder if you can give me a recommendation for a bank or banks in Ecuador to use.  Have you been wiring funds back and forth and can you give any pointer on how best to do that? What to watch out for?

Our advice is to not put more than you need in an Ecuador bank.

I replied:  We used Banco Pichincha but mainly just live off ATM from a US account and or wire in larger amounts to buy real estate only as it is needed.

Funds over $2,000 coming out of Ecuador are now taxed at 5%. Put in $2,000 and you can only take back $1,900. That’s not a good deal.

If you deposit large amounts ($50,000 or more) be sure to clear in advance with the receiving Ecuador bank so they are satisfied that these funds come from a legitimate source.  I had a couple hundred thousand frozen and almost lost a real estate deal because a bank froze funds even though my Danish bankers emailed the fact that the funds were from our pension account.  The Ecuador bank did not accept that explanation.  Only a threatened law suit by our attorney released the funds.   Regards,

Why invest in Ecuador when global stock markets make great sense now?  There are several reasons why this may be a time to start a huge run of profits.

One reason is that statistically…. equity markets are now selling at a good value.  Michale Keppler wrote in his latest quarterly equity value analysis:

Keppler analysis

(Click on photo enlarge).

Our implicit three-to-five-year projection for the compound annual total return of the equally weighted World Index now stands at 15.1 %, down from 17.0 % last quarter. The upper-band estimate of 14,084 by September 30, 2016 implies a compound annual total return of 20.4 %, while the lower-band value of 9,390 corresponds to an estimated compound total return of 8.8 % p.a.

Last quarter, I laid out the reasons for our optimistic outlook in detail based on the development of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values, which had grown by 8.3, 8.1, 8.8 and 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually from the turn of the century through June 30, 2012.

I also pointed out that the trend of shrinking multiples in connection with negative real interest rates for many bonds should have exhausted itself and will very likely run out of steam over the coming years. A turnaround in the valuation levels may come sooner rather than later. There is a good chance that it is happening already.

For the forecasts to be accurate we assume that each of the 18 markets included in our equally weighted World Index – these are those developed markets which have been a constituent of the MSCI World Index since its inception in December 1969 – will reach its respective expected value over the coming three to five years.

This assumption has proved to be accurate on average over long periods in the past. Like all value concepts, the warnings tend to come early as do the signs of optimism in times of severe undervaluation – like those we experience currently.

Interestingly, the former Fed Governor Alan Greenspan first warned of “Irrational Exuberance” on December 5, 1996, when the upper valuation band in our chart was first breached on the upside – even though the global bull market in equities continued another three years before the bubble burst. When Warren Buffett mentioned that stocks should “produce long-term returns far superior to bonds” in his famous article “You Pay a Very High Price in the Stock Market for a Cheery Consensus” in the Forbes issue of August 6, 1979, it took exactly three years to August 13, 1982 for one of the biggest global bull markets in stock market history to get started.

We prefer being early to being sorry.  Michael Keppler

Keppler’s analysis and thinking are in line with our study of long term equity market waves.

A chart of the Dow Jones Industrial we reviewed at our last Super Thinking + Investing & Business seminar looked at how after the 16 year 1966 to 1982 bear market ended… despite a recession just ending in the US (and lasting in most of the world till 1985) the Dow started a steady climb for 17 years.

dow-stock-chart

Click to enlarge or go to stockcharts.com

This time from 1982 to 1990 was the darkest hour… when the herd was thinking negatively but the reality was that a boom was on!   I recall how the book “Bankruptcy 1995: The Coming Collapse of America and How to Stop It” by Harry E. Figgie, Jr., with Gerald J. Swanson became a New York Times best seller in the early 1990s.  Most investors had still not caught on to the fact that fortunes were being made (as the chart above shows).

Then in 1999 another bear market began and history suggests that the end of this bear is near.

We can be like the smart investors who began investing in 1982 while everyone else cried in their beer or not.

I have been increasing my equity portfolio for almost a year now and plan to continue doing so.

By all means live in and enjoy Ecuador…. just do not do all your banking and investing there!

We leave most of our funds with our investment manager Jyske Global Asset Manager (JGAM) in Denmark and when we need liquidity wire it from there.

You can learn more from JGAM Senior VP Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors contact René Mathys at mathys@jbpb.dk

The sun always shines somewhere and provides many places we might love to live.  There is also always opportunity somewhere.  Modern technology allows us the ability to live where we love but protect our savings, investments and pensions in places where profits are most likely.

Gary

Update what’s happening with investments globally and see where to invest next at our February 1-2-3, 2013

Borrow Low – Invest High

A special value investing tactic makes high risk, high profit speculations safer and more profitable.

For example in 2015, a 10,000 pound loan (in British pounds at $1.52 per pound) was used to purchase 1,091 shares of the silver ETF SLV.  Those shares rose to be worth $20,421 by 2016, a 34.34% additional profit.

 

From July 2015 to July 2016, the price of the silver ETF  iShares Silver Trust (Symbol SLV) rose from $13.92 and ounce to $18.71.  You can see the rise in the finance.yahoo.com chart below.

yahoo

A 10,000 pound loan (the pound was $1.52 per pound) purchased 1,091 shares of the silver ETF SLV.   Those shares rose to be worth $20,421 by 2016,  a 34.34% additional profit.

The profit did not stop there!

From 2015 to 2016 the pound dropped from $1.52 dollars per pound to only $1.39 dollars.  The 10,000 pound loan that had worth $15,200 in 2015 only required $13,900 to pay it off in 2016.

yahoo pound chart

The falling pound had created an extra $1,300 profit.

Do the math: 

Silver worth $20,421

Loan payoff  $13,900

Profit             $6,521

Cash Required  Zero

All this profit was made on the 10,000 pound loan.  No cash was required on the investor’s part.

The entire $6,521 was pure… extra profit.

Some investors borrowed less… others borrowed much more so their profits were even higher.

This example came from our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) which studies three main layers of value investing tactics in real time.

Tactic #1: Diversify equally in good value developed and emerging stock markets.
Tactic #2:  Use trending algorithms to increase, reduce or hold positions in these markets.
Tactic #3:  Add spice to a portfolio speculating in precious metals, when their price is under “ideal conditions”, using leveraged, low value currency loans.

An “ideal condition” is a rare distortion in an economic fundamental that history has shown “almost always” corrects itself.

The words “almost always” indicates that there is risk.  There is risk that a basic fundamental has changed and the distortion will not correct in any targeted period of time.   Or a new fundamental has shifted dynamics to such an extent that the distortion never corrects.  There is always risk.

Profit is the reward for taking that risk, but there is always a chance of loss which is why the third layer speculation is to be used like a spice… sparingly.

Pi looks for several ideal conditions in precious metals using the price of gold based on over 40 years of speculation in precious metals.

The first condition is gold’s price to inflation.   Gold is the anchor of the strategy but its ricing is perhaps the most speculative since a meaningful inflation rate is hard to define.

Gaining a true perspective on gold’s value is difficult because the price of gold was fixed for many years.  The gold price was fixed at $35 an ounce at the end of WWII and this fixing did not take into account the huge inflation this conflict created.   This also impacts any accuracy in understanding what the real the price of gold should have been at the end of the war.

Statistics can be misleading.  In the report Platinum Dip 2018 there is an analysis of inflation.

These factors distort the accuracy of the picture.  How much is gold really worth now?  What is its real value?  This is truly THE golden question.

At this time the magic number we sue for gold is $1,225 an ounce.  If gold’s price is much higher than $1,225, than the Silver Dip or Platinum Dip are not in an ideal condition.

When gold is priced ideally, then there are several ratios that can alert us to an ideal condition.

The first ratio is the gold to silver ratio.  When the gold silver ratio reaches 80 we consider speculation in silver to be ideal (if gold is ideally priced).

This value indicator is simple because the gold silver ratio is rarely as high as 80, only three times in 36 years as the chart below shows.

gold silver spread

Chart from www.goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html#36_year_gold_price

The spread was over 80 when we issued the original Silver Dip in the 1980s.  30 years later ideal conditions coincided again. The chart above shows how the spread was shooting towards 80 when we issued the Silver Dip 2015 report.

The spread hit 80 in 2015 and again in March 2016, but we can see from the chart above that a drop in the spread was on its way. The trend was for a continued lowering of the spread as silver’s price rise was much stronger than gold’s throughout 2016.

This chart below from infomine.com shows the trend clearly.

silver

http://www.infomine.com/investment/price-ratios/gold-silver/10-year/

Another ratio we watch is the gold to platinum ratio.   When the price of gold rises above the price of platinum, platinum’s price is at an ideal condition.

Platinum is a good value when it sells for less than gold and gold is close to our below its fair price ($1,225).   As the chart below shows, platinum costs more than gold more often than not.  The fundamental reasons for platinum’s high price, including platinum’s supply scarcity support this.

The chart below from Kitco.com shows the gold-platinum ratio.  The ratio is the red line and right axis.  The price of gold is the yellow line, left axis.  The price of platinum is the blue line, left axis, from 1975 to May 13, 2016.

gold

http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2016-06-27/Gold-to-Platinum-Ratio.html

Notice how each time the gold-platinum ratio (red) has spiked, 1975, 1982, 1985, 2002, 2009, shortly after the price of platinum (blue line) has skyrocketed shortly after.

The gold-platinum ratio was at an almost  historical low when this report was written and the “Silver Dip 2017” recommended a shift from speculating  in silver to speculating in platinum. The 2017 report recommended leveraging the platinum ETF “ETFS Physical Platinum Shares” (Symbol) PPLT.

The spice.  This type of speculating is not done on its own, but as an adjunct that enhances an existing equity portfolio.  The portfolio is used as collateral for a loan that is invested in the metal with an “ideal condition price”.

Let’s examine how a speculation in silver (based on a gold silver ratio’s ideal condition) increased the profits of a portfolio of good value developed and emerging market equity ETFs.

This study looks at the $100,000 invested in a portfolio we began tracking in our Pi course.  The portfolios were started September 2015 (591 days before this study or 17 months ago).  70% was invested in ten good value developed market ETFs and 30% in 10 good value emerging market ETFs.

This is a list of the shares in the Developed Market Portfolio.

Screen Shot 2017-02-19 at 12.30.18 PM

This is a list of the shares in the Emerging Market Portfolio.

Screen Shot 2017-02-19 at 12.30.55 PM

The good value portfolio was up 4.64% (a gain of $3,248) since inception and the emerging market portfolio is up 6.72% (a gain of $2,016).

A portfolio of these shares with an original investment of $100,000 invested 70%-30% after 591 days (February 2017) was worth $105,267, a 5.26% gain.

In this study we examine the change in performance when an additional $10,000 was risked on the iShares Silver ETF (Symbol SLV) beginning March 2016 when the gold silver ratio broached 80.

Image from www.macrotrends.net/1441/gold-to-silver-ratio

The price of SLV was $14.01 in March 2016 and is currently $17.06.

Screen Shot 2017-02-19 at 12.50.25 PM

Image from https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/slv?

Let’s examine profits under three different exit strategies.

Exit strategy #1:  No exit.  The $10,000 was worth $12,163 at the time of this study (February 2017).

Exit Strategy #2: Exit when Tradestops issued a Stop Loss signal November 2016 at a price of $16.07 per share.  The $10,000 was worth $11,457.

Exit Strategy #3: Exit when the Gold silver ratio dropped below 70 on January 2017.  The $10,000 was worth $11,365.

The overall portfolio performance was improved in each situation.

Exit strategy #1:  Profits increased from $5,267 to $7,430.  A 10% increase in the portfolio added a 41% increase in profit.

Exit Strategy #2: Profits increased from $5,267 to $6,724.  A 10% increase in the portfolio added a 27% increase in profit.

Exit Strategy #3: Profits increased from $5,267 to $6,632.  A 10% increase in the portfolio added a 26% increase in profit.

All of these additional profits were gained without a penny of extra investment.  All the profits came from loans that were invested in silver.

The other benefit beyond profit is safety from time.

When leveraging investments, time is most important.  Because leverage is secured by the entire portfolio rather than just the additional investment, the odds of a margin call are almost nil so the investor gets to determine how long the investment will have to mature.

Let’s take an example of the good value Pifolio above.

In this study the loan was $10,000.

The collateral is not the $10,000 investment in silver, but the entire portfolio which is now $115,267 ($105,267 plus the $10,000 in silver).

This means (if the rules of the lender requires a two to one loan ratio) that the portfolio would have to drop around 75% before there would be a margin call.  Such a loss is highly unlikely.

This margin has as much time as is needed to let fundamental forces work through the market.

Any profit gained comes without adding a penny to the portfolio.

The most important elements of making good investments are price and time.  There is always something about investments we won’t know, but the one thing we can trust is that investments purchased at the right price, and given time, have the highest odds that profits will flow.

Silver is falling. 

slv

Chart from finance.yahoo.com/chart/SLV?

Recently the silver ETF iShares Silver Trust (symbol SLV)  was priced 18.62% below the highest close of $19.60 from last August.   The mathematical system we track created a stop loss price of $16.18, showing that this precious metal moved into selling territory.  Now the share price is in the $15 per ounce range.

We Use Math to Spot Value. 

Whether one likes to trade or invest and hold, math based financial information works better than the spin, rumor and conjecture of the daily economic news.   Mathematical based investing can put us on a solid path to everlasting wealth that is not easily diverted by the daily drama that seems to be unfolding in the modern world.

For example, our Purposeful investing Course teaches three mathematically based routines that have been proven to out perform the market over time .

The first routine in the course is the quarterly examination by Keppler Asset Management of 43 equity markets and analysis of their value.  This makes it possible to create a base portfolio of Country ETFs based on basic value.  This passive approach to investing in ETFs is simply to invest in Country ETFs of good value equity markets.

For example, Keppler’s analysis in 2017 shows that the “Good Value Developed Market” Portfolio is twice the value of a US market index fund and a much better value than any of the other indices shown.  These are based on the cornerstones of value, price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield (except the European dividend yield).

The Good Value Developed Market Portfolio offers even better value than the Morgan Stanley Capital Index  Emerging Market Index.

keppler

History shows, that over the long run, math and value drive the price of markets.

Using math makes it simple, easy and inexpensive to diversify in the predictability of good value.

The second tool Pi provides is a way to actively monitor and shift the good value markets using trending and volatility algorithms.  These algorithms allow us to trade good value markets through downtrends and upticks to increase profits in a diversified even more.

These trending algorithms use the math that spotted the current condition of silver.

Use math to spot distortions that create ideal conditions for speculation.

Pi teaches the strategy of speculating in metals when speculative conditions are absolutely ideal.  The Silver Dip relies on a really simple theory… gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s and platinum’s price should maintain a parity with gold.

Our math based study has created an ideal price for gold and though its trending up it has passed the good value level we use.  Gold is still okay, but not a bargain any more.  Value investors only seek bargains.

When “Silver Dip 2017” was written profits on silver had been taken.

Platinum conditions are ideal for 2018.

Since 2014 the price of platinum has fallen below the price of gold and at the beginning of this year reached a historical low.  The distorted gold platinum spread suggests that platinum is a very good value so we are updating our dip report, and it will be the “Platinum Dip 2018”.

The report explains how to speculate in platinum plus outlines the following:

  • How to use theDip strategy in platinum without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in platinum if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment and who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons conditions are better for a Platinum Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest and speculate in gold, silver or platinum in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Platinum Dip 2018” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

The first way the Dip adds extra performance is with leverage.

The second way to enhance performance is to maintain the leverage in poor value currencies.   Choosing which currencies to borrow is almost as important as choosing which metal to invest in.  The examples in this report have shown loans made in British pounds.  Other times it has been better to borrow Japanese yen, Swiss francs, once Mexican pesos.

Currently the best currency to borrow is US dollars.

The Platinum Dip 2018 report reviews each currency and which is best to borrow now and what to watch for.  Sometimes it is best to borrow a second currency and pay off the initial loan in mid stream.

Rising interest rates make the US stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Platinum Dip 2017” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in platinum.

Learn how to get platinum loans for as low as 1.58%.  See why to beware of  certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how platinum profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of gold and silver with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine the real value of gold, silver and platinum.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from the gold and silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of platinum to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we eliminated the cost of paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2017  $39.95

Get the Silver Dip 2017 FREE when you subscribe to the Purposeful investing Course.  Act Now.

Subscribe to the first year of the Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  You also receive the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” FREE.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the first monthly issue of Pi and the three reports right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days, and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the three reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.  You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and your initial 160 page online introduction and the regular bi weekly emailed updates for a year.

Gary

 

Emerging Market Values Update – Bank Robbery in Reverse


See the Emerging Market Values update for the Spring of 2012.  First learn about the greatest bank robbery of all time… taking place… right now.

One of the biggest bank robberies in history is taking place… yet unlike with Ma Barker, John Dillinger and Bonnie and Clyde the Feds are not making a fuss.  That’s because these bank robberies are in reverse.

website shots tags:

Banks have really changed. An old bank.

website shots tags:

New Bank.  Car that promotes new bank near our home… the First Green Bank.

There is a well known saying “follow the money”.   In investing this is normally not true.  Wise investors invest where a lack of money creates value and a lack of money you receive from your bank tells all about this robbery.

Years ago I was asked to testify as an expert witness in a Federal fraud case on behalf of the defense team of one of my readers.  The reader had been a real estate developer who was unable to meet his commitments when his banks withdrew their lines of credit.   The point  I outlined was that after a great deal of expansion by the Fed… bank profits rose dramatically at the same time that bank lending slowed almost to a stop.  The case, by the way, was dismissed.

We have a similar scenario today.  Though banks were fed liquidity. Profits have risen significantly while lending by banks has stalled.

In 2011 bank profits soared but loans made by banks hardly rose at all.

In the first quarter of 2011 bank profits saw a 66.5 percent increase from the same period  2010… the best since mid 2007. By the third quarter, according to the FDIC’s quarterly report, banks earned $35.3 billion in profits in the quarter, up $11.5 billion from the same 2010 quarter.

Profits then rose $26 billion in the final three months of 2011— 23 percent gain over the final quarter of 2012.

At the same time, loans in 2011 did not rise.

The Bank for International Settlements issued a brief in November 2011 that explained why. The abstract said:   This paper examines whether the rescue measures adopted during the global financial crisis helped to sustain the supply of bank lending.  While stronger capitalisation sustains loan growth in normal times, banks during a crisis can turn additional capital into greater lending only once their capitalisation exceeds a critical threshold. This suggests that recapitalisations may not translate into greater credit supply until bank balance sheets are sufficiently strengthened.

We can see in this chart from the Federal Reserve how 2011 bank lending stalled and in the case of real estate loans, fell.

Fed-chart tags:

The fact is banks have to make money somewhere to buck up their reserves and they do so in a process called shadow banking. Shadow banking allows banks to earn money without having to increase their capital and reserves… so their funds go into shadow banking instead of loans.

Multi Currency subscribers can read more about shadow banking at their password protected site. Click here.

Learn how to get a password here.

Meanwhile depositors at banks are earning almost nothing.

This forces investors to take greater risks to make any return at all.

One place to seek higher returns is in multi currency stock markets. For the past several decades, the best place to gain these returns has been in emerging equity markets.

Good value is now harder to find in emerging markets as they mature and as more investors’ earnings (almost zero at banks) are willing to push their equity prices everywhere beyond realistic values.

This is why once a quarter we look at an emerging equity market value analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Here is Keppler’s latest emerging market value analysis for the first quarter of 2012:

Recent Developments & Outlook

Emerging Markets equities advanced again in the first quarter 2012. The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Markets Total Return Index (December 1988 = 100) gained 10.7 % in local currencies, 14.1 % in US dollars and 11.2 % in Euros. The Euro gained 2.6 % versus the US dollar in the first quarter 2012. It now stands at 1.3317 (USD/EUR) as compared to its year-end 2011 level of 1.2982.

All three regional indices advanced last quarter: Asia by 11.5 %, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) by 8.9 % and Latin America by 10.2 %.

Performance numbers are in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

All twenty-one Emerging Markets covered here,  advanced last quarter.

The three best performing markets were Egypt (+41.3 %), Turkey (+20 %) and the Philippines (+18.6 %).

Morocco (+1.7 %), the Czech Republic (+3.8 %) as well as Indonesia and Malaysia (both up 4.9 %) fared worst last quarter.

The Top Value Model Portfolio based on the Top Value Strategy (December 1988 = 100) gained 14.5 % in local currencies, 19.5 in US dollars and 16.5 % in Euros last quarter.

There was no change in our performance ratings last quarter.

The Top Value Model Portfolio contains the ten national MSCI markets Brazil, China, the Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey at equal weights.  According to our performance ratings, a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The following table shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index at the beginning of 2012 based on selected asset and earnings valuation measures:

website shots tags:

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Here is why equity investments in Euro markets may now be more attractive than in emerging markets.

keppler tags:
Last week this site reviewed the values of major equity markets

The chart above was included and you can see that European shares are currently selling at a PBV (price to book value of 1.48.   Compare this to the good value major markets at 1.09 versus the world at 1.79 and major markets at 1.72.  Europe’s PE ration (price to earnings) is also low at 12.1 compared to 11.8 for emerging markets. this is significant because emerging market pe ratios have always been low due to their capital growth rather than earnings potential.

Multi Currency Subscribers can read an in depth 48 page report on all emerging market values at their password protected site. Click here.

Learn how to get a password here.

Gary

Emerging Market Value Update – January 2012


Emerging Market Value Update – January 2012

Fwd: time-photo

Photo from Time Magazine article about China and Japan trading their currencies directly rather than through the US dollar..

There is a well know saying “follow the money”.  In investing this is normally not true.  Wise investors invest where a lack of money creates value.

Looking for emerging market value, we can see two important stories that affect value in emerging markets this quarter.  

The first story relates to emerging versus major markets. For decades emerging markets offered better value than emerging.

Now investor sentiment has changed. Modern communications provide more data about emerging markets. Investors have more confidence. In addition investors…. with great reason have lost confidence in major markets.  This is not surprising with the recent sovereign debt downgrades. Some major nations debt is now in junk status.  This has created great value in major markets.  European shares especially are oversold because of the euro worries.

Demographics in the USA favor the U.S. over nearly every other rich country n the world.  Four million people reach 21 years old each year and this will eventually return home building to its previous million houses a year (right now under 700,000).  With corporate American so lean and inventories so low… growth is very likely to set in.  The creates great value in the US now.   See more on major market values here.

The second story relates to China.  China’s expansion will be an engine that will help run the global economy in to the next decade.

Recently Japan and China have agreed to promote direct trading of the yen and yuan without using dollars. This will encourage the development of a market for companies involved in the exchanges and help Chinese-Japanese trade because direct yen- yuan settlement should reduce currency risks and trading costs.

Japan will also apply to buy Chinese bonds next year, allowing the investment of renminbi to leave China during the transaction., the Japanese and Chinese governments said.

China is now Japan’s biggest trading partner with $340 billion in two-way transactions last year.  Yet China’s equity market has suffered which creates a special value as you’ll see below.

This is why once a quarter we look at an emerging equity market value analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Here is Keppler’s latest emerging market value analysis for the third quarter of 2011 says:

Recent Developments & Outlook

Last quarter, Emerging Markets equities recovered some of the declines suffered during the first nine months of 2011. The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Markets Total Return Index (December 1988 = 100) gained 4.8 % in local currencies, 4.4 % in US dollars and 7.9 % in Euros.

In 2011, the Index lost 12.7 % in local currencies, 18.4 % in US dollars and 15.7 % in Euros. The Euro lost 3.2 % versus the US dollar both in the last quarter and in 2011. It finished the year at 1.2982 (USD/EUR) — 3.2 % below its year-end 2010 level of 1.3416.

All three regional indices advanced last quarter: Asia by 3.6 %, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) by 3.8 % and Latin America by 9.2 %.

Year to date, Asia is down 14.5 %, EMEA 9.3 % and Latin America 10 %. Performance numbers are in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

Fifteen Emerging Markets advanced and six markets declined last quarter.

The three best performing markets were Thailand (+13.1 %), Peru (+12.5 %) and Malaysia (+10.9 %).

Turkey (-14.4 %), Egypt (-10.8 %) and Morocco (-7.5 %) fared worst last quarter.

In 2011, four markets were higher and seventeen markets declined.

The biggest winners last year were Indonesia (+6.7 %), South Africa (+4.5 %) and Malaysia (+2.9 %).

Egypt (-44.9 %), India (-25.4 %) and Peru (-21.4 %) performed worst in 2011.

There was one change in our performance ratings last quarter: China was upgraded to “Buy” from “Neutral” at the end of October.

The Top Value Model Portfolio now contains the ten national MSCI markets at equal weights:

Brazil,

China,

the Czech Republic,

Egypt,

Hungary,

Poland,

Russia,

Taiwan,

Thailand,

Turkey

According to our performance ratings, a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The following table shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index at the beginning of 2012 based on selected asset and earnings valuation measures:

keppler charts

Multi Currency portfolio Subscribers can see full data on Keppler’s buy hold and sell value analysis at the Multi Currency Password Protected Site.

See how to get a Multi Currency password here

Gary

 

 

Up 26.5% in 3 months as Markets Crash


Read about my latest report for your Kindle at Amazon.com.   Amazon Prime members can borrow for Kindle free!

The data below shows how and why a good value major market was up 26.5% in a year when most stock markets crashed.

See the Global Major Market Values Update as of January 1, 2012 below.

euro

First see the major market in the euro that has skyrocketed up because it had dropped so far below reason that it offered incredible value.

The euro. Can it survive?

Excerpts from a recent article in the Financial Times question the ability of the euro to survive.  The article entitled “S&P downgrades France and Austria” by Gerrit Wiesmann in Berlin, Peter Spiegel in Brussels and Robin Wigglesworth in London says:  The eurozone debt crisis returned with a vengeance on Friday as Standard & Poor’s, the credit rating agency, downgraded France and Austria – two of the currency zone’s six triple A rated countries – as well as seven nations not in that top tier, among them Italy and Spain.

This is bad news for the euro and global economy but this is not the worst of it.  The article went on to point out:  S&P, also gave 14 of 16 countries – including France, Italy and Spain – a negative outlook, which means there is a one-in-three chance for each country of a further downgrade this year or next.

The agency downgraded France and Austria by one notch to double A plus, while it cut Italy Spain and Portugal by two notches. Portugal has now been relegated to “junk” status by the three main rating agencies following similar actions by Moody’s in July and Fitch in November. Ireland held its rating.

The downgrades reignited fears about the fiscal sustainability of the eurozone and the knock-on effect on its rescue fund, which could now lose its own triple A rating, reducing its firepower or forcing eurozone nations to increase contributions yet again.

The really bad news is that a day later S&P downgraded the eurozone bail-out fund.   This means that the eurozone’s bail-out fund without a AAA credit rating, will have a harder time containing the euro debt crisis.   The cost of holding the euro together will rise.

Deeply profound problems like this will keep economic markets in turmoil for some time.   This turmoil however makes finding value more important than ever before.

The way value can surprise us with a 26.5% jump is shown below.

Here is an update on the values of major stock markets by Keppler Asset Management.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Keppler

The global economy is in tension.  US and Western European economies are both being forced to face up to debt, aging populations and huge unfunded future obligations in pensions, medical care and who knows what, amid a disintegrating, global social cohesion evidenced by terrorism… revolution and internal strife such as the bombing and killing in Norway.   

Huge losses will occur as the dollar and euro, or whatever currency format emerges in Europe,  lose purchasing power.

The best way to protect against these losses is by always seeking value.

Understanding value is the tricky part because in these difficult times investors ALWAYS overestimate the risk and create extra value.

This is why the bad boy of European markets last quarter made investors a cool 26.5% n just three months.

This is also why once a quarter we look at a major equity market valuation analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Here are Keppler’s Comments on Major Market Value for the last quarter to January 1, 2012.

Recent Developments & Outlook

Global Equities had reached their 2011 high in April and after that declined for five consecutive months before recovering again in the last three months. The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) finished the year up 7.8 % in the fourth quarter),  (+7.6 % in US dollars and up +11.2 % in euro).

In 2011, the MSCI World Index declined 5.5 % both in local currencies and in US dollars and 2.4 % in Euros.

The Euro lost 3.2 % versus the US dollar both in the last quarter and in 2011. It finished the year at 1.2982 (USD/EUR) — 3.2 % below its year-end 2010 level of 1.3416.

Eighteen markets advanced in the final quarter 2011, six markets declined.

Ireland had the highest return (+26.5 %), followed by Denmark (+11.8 %) and the US (+11.5 %).

Greece (-25.1 %), Portugal (-6.5 %) and New Zealand (-4.2 %) performed worst last quarter.

The best performing markets in 2011 were Ireland (+17.5 %), New Zealand (+5.7 %) and the US (+1.4 %).

Greece (-61.5 %), Austria (-34.3 %) and Finland (-29.6 %) were last year’s worst performing markets. Performance is shown in local currencies, unless mentioned otherwise.

Fundamentals have improved remarkably in 2011 moving in the opposite direction of stock prices: Compared with their end of 2010 levels, book values, 12-month trailing earnings and dividends of the Equally Weighted World Index grew by 9.1 %, 9.3 % and 19.1 %, respectively, last year. In addition, opportunity costs — i.e. the low interest rate environment — continue to make stocks look attractive.

There were no changes in our performance ratings last quarter.

The Top Value Model Portfolio holds the six “Buy”-rated markets Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Norway at equal weights.

According to our analyses, a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The table below shows how the Major Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI World Index, the MSCI Europe Index and the MSCI US Index at the beginning of 2012 based on selected variables. To demonstrate the current attractiveness of global equities in general, we also show the key variables of the MSCI World Index as of December 31, 1999, when the MSCI World Index reached its all time-high both in price and in terms of valuation. Compared with those levels, the MSCI World Index is now 59.2 percent cheaper. This explains to a large extent why the developed markets had been a loser in the first decade of the new millennium.

keppler-charts

Based on their current valuation levels, I believe that the second decade should turn out just fine for global equities in general and better yet for the Major Markets

Which portfolio would you rather have? While nobody in a MSCI World Index at the valuation levels experienced at the end of the last millennium, global equity investors should ask themselves what makes more sense today:

* invest in US equities at a premium of 64 % compared to the MSCI Europe Index,

* invest in the MSCI World Index at a premium of 31 % compared to the MSCI Europe Index, or

* invest in the Top Value Markets at a discount of 10 % compared to the MSCI Europe Index.

Our implicit three-to-five-year projection for the compound annual total return of the Equally-Weighted World Index now stands at 17.6 %, down from 19.2 % last quarter — see chart below.

keppler-charts

A look at the Irish Stock Exchange ISEQ General Index shows how the shares recovered after investors paniced mid 2011 and fled this market.

irish-market-chart

Irish ETF

iShares ETF managers offers the MSCI Ireland Capped Investable Market Index Fund (Symbol EIRL NYSE) U.S.-listed ETF which provides exposure to the Irish economy.

EIRL is linked to the MSCI Ireland Investable Market 25/50 Index, a benchmark that is designed to measure the performance of stocks in the top 99% by market capitalization of equity securities listed on stock exchanges in Ireland.  The index consisted of appx. 20 securities, with large allocations to the materials (25%), consumer staples (23%), and industrials (18%) sectors.  Large holdings include  CRH PLC, an Irish building materials group, the food company Kerry Group (11%) and drug development firm Elan Corporation (9%).

Since Ireland is a neutrally ranked market (by Keppler) and has enjoyed this last quarter spurt… others markets make better value sense now.

See which markets and why the Danish market is now in sell territory at our upcoming Super Thinking + Investing and Business Seminar.

Multi Currency portfolio subscribers can see Keppler’s full analysis of major markets at the password protected site here.

Learn how to obtain a Multi Currency portfolio password here.

Gary