Tag Archive | "Jyske Bank"

Dollar Diversified Breakout Portfolio Up 490.65%


Most investors need dollar diversification.

We’ll review and update a breakout portfolio at our upcoming investing course in Montreal.   This is a portfolio of seven shares we have reviewed at our website and seminars over the past 21 months (since the end of 2012).

See why this portfolio turned a 490.65% profit in 21 months.

Beyond Water

water

Click on images to enlarge.

One reason we bought our farm because it has so much water.   We have been recommending investing in water for over 20 years.

yahoo share chart

Let me hastily add that the last 21 months has been an easy time to make money in stocks.

As the chart above shows if you simply invested in the Dow Jones Industrial Index, you earned a 31.01% profit since the end of 2012.

Even better if you invested in the MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital Index) World Index, your profits were 50.60% in that same period.

yahoo share chart

Yet this breakout portfolio rose 490.65%.  What is the difference?

The difference is created by leveraging breakout value.

There are numerous ways to spot breakouts.  One method is to see a need so great, that the value of its fulfillment has to rise.  Investments in water infrastructure are an example.   A glance at the aging of the western world’s water infrastructure shows that investments in pipes, values and such make a great deal of sense.

This is why we wrote about Aegion Corp (AEGN) (1), a water investment that was first reviewed at this site in 2007 when it was named Instutiform.  This company made sense to me because it is a leader in trenchless water line replacement.  Their process is the most widely used trench less method for restoring structural integrity to and removing infiltration from sewers.  Their technology allows their customers to avoid the extraordinary expense and extreme disruption that can result from traditional “dig and replace” method of replacing water lines.  Since its formation in 1971, the company has rehabilitated enough pipe to circle the globe.

yahoo share chart

Aegion shares up 24.10% since 2012.  Click on image to enlarge.

The New York Times article “Infrastructure Cracks as Los Angeles Defers Repairs” (2) confirms the value in this type of business.

That article tells how a torrent of water from a ruptured pipe valve on a 90-year-old water main, under Sunset Boulevard, hurled chunks of asphalt 40 feet into the air and spilled 20 million gallons during this region’s historic drought.

The story quoted a utility official as saying, “People don’t think about the fact that there are pipes under the ground that are 100 years old until one blows.” and points out the enormous water problems of delayed maintenance.

The article points out that:

* City officials estimate that it would cost at least $3.6 billion to fix the worst roads, $1.5 billion to repair the sidewalks and $3 billion to replace aging water pipes.

* More than 10 percent of the 7,200 miles of water pipes were built 90 years ago. The average age of a city pipe is 58, compared with an optimal life span of 100 years. While that may not sound so bad, at the current level of funding it would take the Department of Water and Power 315 years to replace them.

* Marcie L. Edwards, the general manager of the department, said that the pipes were not in as dire shape as those in some other cities.

Investing in water as an asset class is a no brainer.

The next way to spot value is when fear has driven prices too low.

One theme I invested in since 2012 is based on my belief that investors typically oversell bad news and that Europe has been oversold.  I wrote near the end of 2012 in a post at this site entitled “Great Global Investing Adventure” (3):  I stuck with some northern European companies (Jyske Bank and German TV company Sky Deutsch) because these companies mainly earn in Northern Europe.  I believe that Europe and the euro will either recover or the EU will create two euros… the Euro Hard and Euro Soft.  Jyske (Jysk.co) and Sky Deutsch (SkyD.DE) are companies with a big share of their earnings  in areas that would be in the hard euro (Denmark, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Finland).

You can see from the stock charts of these companies at finance.yahoo.com how the European pick up helped these shares.

yahoo share chart

Sky Deutsche up 147.6% since 2012.

Click on the photos to enlarge them.

Germany remains the powerhouse in Europe and people there  watch TV.

yahoo chart

Jyske Bank shares up  86.17% since 2102.

I have always liked the people in Jyske’s management.  Their budgets  are modest (no limos for the CEO here).  There is no bonus pay plan for staff and equal responsibility philosophy to look after employee – shareholder and customer make good sense to me.

Another way top spot value is to look for silver linings in bad news.

Take for example… the ammunition makers… Alliant Techsystems (NYSE: ATK).  The shares in this company offered good value.

yahoo share chart

Chart of ATK shares up 154.46% since 2012.

I stumbled across ATK when numerous readers began sending me copies of websites headlines like this: Fears that federal authorities are preparing for mass civil unrest have increased after it was revealed that the Department of Homeland Security is planning to buy a further 750 million rounds of ammo in addition to the 450 million rounds of hollow point bullets already purchased earlier this year.

The buzz is that the current administration is afraid of civil unrest in the USA and is arming up.

Perhaps so but my thinking focused on value instead of anarchy.  Instead of asking… is this true or not… what is the government’s intentions… I asked… who will make all that money?

For a fact… there is very little I can do about the government or its expenditures.  There is a lot I can do in my own actions and investing.

So I looked and found this news at fiance.yahoo.com:   ATK Delivers 2 Billion 7.62mm Rounds to the U.S. Army from the Lake City Army Ammunition Plant (LCAAP)ATK Delivers More than 350 Million 5.56mm Enhanced Performance Rounds Using Modernized Production Line Equipment
.   ATK Receives $131 Million in Small-Caliber Ammunition Orders

ARLINGTON, Va., Sept. 13, 2012 /PRNewswire/ — ATK (ATK) recently achieved a world-class production milestone by delivering the 2 billionth 7.62mm round of ammunition manufactured at the Lake City Army Ammunition Plant (LCAAP) in Independence, Mo.  Since assumption of LCAAP manufacturing operations in 2000, ATK has increased the production rate for 7.62mm ammunition five-fold in direct support of U.S. Army requirements.

Alliant Techsystems manufacture everything from rockets for NASA to bullets.  In fact it is the world’s largest manufacturer of bullets and much more.  So ATK shares are in the breakout portfolio.

Another way to spot value is by seeking high paying dividends.

This led me to Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust and Brookfield Renewable Energy shares (4).

yahoo share chart

Suntec REIT shares rose 25.77% since 2012 and paid 5% dividend per annum so the real return was appx. 35.77%

yahoo share chart

Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners shares (BEP) (5) appear to have dropped 2.22% over two years but paid a 5% dividend each year, plus in April 2013 issued a bonus share for each 17.42 shares held or appx 5.75% so the real return was +13.35%

Another way to find value is to spot a severe shortage in a commodity that has expanding demand.

yahoo share chart

TFS Corp. (TFS.AX) has risen 523.19% since 2012

Wall Street Journal article alerted me to sandalwood smuggling problems  and a post at our site “An Investment to Kill For” (6) said:   Trade in sandalwood dates back to the beginning of trading in India.  The trees are so valuable that no individual may own a sandalwood tree.   Sandalwood prices have skyrocketed and there is growing demand as the use of aromatheraphy and non chemical trends in the cosmetic industry toward natural products.  Plus there is ongoing research for new ways to use the bio active agents in sandalwood for modern medicine.  A vial of the oil extract costs between $400 and $1,000.

Many people, including our friends in the essential oil business, keep their sandalwood in safes just like jewelry and precious metals, after all it IS precious.  Although trade in Indian sandalwood is official restricted, smuggling remains a serious threat to the tree.  Thus it is no surprise that the only public company… listed on a stock exchange… anywhere in the world, that legally grows thousands of acres of Indian Sandalwood, has enormous profit potential.

These are the seven shares we have been tracking and will review at the investment seminar in Montreal, October 10-11-12.

Now let’s look at the performance of a portfolio built around these seven shares.

TFS Corp. an investment in Australian dollars  is up 523.19% in 21 months.

Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners  an investment in the Canadian dollar is up 13.35%.

Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust, an investment in the Singapore dollar, is up 35.77%.

ATK Corp., an investment in US dollars, is up 154.46%.

Jyske Bank, an investment in Danish Kroner, is up  86.17%.

Sky Deutsche, an investment in Euro, is up 147.60%.

Aegion Corp.,  an investment in US dollar, is up 24.10%

Average return before currency adjustment 135.55%

135.55% in two years is pretty good, but we are looking for 280%.  Where is the extra profit?

The Japanese yen

The added profit comes from leverage and the fall of the Japanese yen.  On December 12, 2012 a message entitled “Multi Currency Sandwich” (6) at this site said:   If I am correct, this is a good time to short the Japanese yen.  The way to short the yen is to borrow yen and use the loan to make investments that earn more than 3% in currencies that are likely to rise against the yen.

yahoo share chart

The US dollar/yen chart shows that the greenback has risen 34.34% versus the yen since since 2102.

If you invested $100,000 and borrowed $200,000 yen (using the shares as collateral) and invested the $300,000 equally into these seven shares, the loan cost would have been slightly below 4%.  Here is your return.

Investment ($100,000 + $200,000 loan)      $300,000

Profit at 135.55% growth on $300,000            $406,650

Loan cost  on $200,000 loan 4% PA 2 years  -$ 16,000

Loan payoff                                                            – $200,000

Portfolio Value:  $490,650 or 490.65% increase in 21 months on $100,000 invested.  That’s a 280.37% annualized rate.

Actually the profit would be slightly less, by 2% or 3% because this portfolio is diversified in six currencies, the US dollar, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, Singapore dollar, Euro and Danish kroner.

US dollar has lost 4.18% to the Danish kroner and 4.33% to the Euro since 2012 which would push up the profits a bit in US dollar terms.  The Singapore dollar has moved less than 1% versus the US dollar over these last 21 months.   However the US dollar has gained 10.33% to the Canadian dollar and 9.44% to the Australian dollar in the last 21 months which would reduce the return in US dollars terms by about 5%.

This portfolio also offers a good diversification in regions of the world, small cap to large cap and sectors.

Learn how to use “Borrow Low-Deposit High” to enhance profits and how to work more efficiently with your portfolio manager through our study of the breakout portfolio in Montreal.

Also gain the most up to date information on Ecuador Living at this seminar.

Gary

Gain From Pandemics – Riots & Election Volatility

On top of the pandemic… and the riots, another election on its way… all the robo calls from politicians… the dirty tricks and the innumerable amounts of nonsense this vital process brings.

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure, there will be volatility in stock markets during the election process.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   A market correction was due regardless of the party or the person in office and COVID-19 was a pretty good excuse for it to suddenly drop.  Expect plenty more volatility.  Whether the economy recovers slowly or quickly, history suggests that the US market will do a lot of moving up and down.

Second the new politics has created an uncertain era.  Everyone has been shaken over the past three years whether they are pleased with the government or not.

Nothing frightens markets like uncertainty. 

What more could we ask for… an uncertain COVID-19 future and riots in 30 major cities.

Well interest rates could be a dark horse.  I the massive government handouts create inflation, interest rates will rise and rising interest rates will push stock market prices down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the strong US dollar and undervalued non dollar stock markets to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies are the best way to profit long term, through good politics and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.

However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 plus years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) www.nyti

 

(1) Aegion

(2) The New York Times article “Infrastructure Cracks as Los Angeles Defers Repairs

(3)  Great Global Investing Adventure Jyske and Sky Deutsche

(3)  ATK shares

(4)  TFS. Corp.

(5) Brookfield Power

(6) An Investment to Kill For

(7) Borrow the Japanese yen

 

Multi Currency Investing Pension Tip


 Multi Currency investing can protect the purchasing power of pensions.

50 Year Investment Seminar

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

 

Here’s an interesting multi currency investment and ideas on why shifting multi currency portfolios add profit and pension protection.

There are many reasons why we should be concerned about our pensions maintaining their purchasing power.

The worst reason for the problem is that many pensions simply promise more than they can give.

For example the Wall Street Journal article “Accounting Changes Proposed for State, City Retiree-Benefit Plans” (1) by Michael Rapoport says:  States and cities could be forced to report at least half a trillion dollars of additional costs on their books under proposed rules that would shine a harsher light on the growing expense of retired workers’ health insurance and other benefits.   Several municipalities, including Detroit and Stockton, Calif., have filed for bankruptcy protection in recent years amid retiree-benefit burdens, among other issues.

According to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, a group of 150 public-employee pensions that were 72%-funded in 2013, meaning their assets were 72% of their obligations, would have been only 65%-funded under the revamped rules.

Moody’s Investors Service estimates states’ total unfunded retiree benefit liabilities at $530 billion, which would be added to governments’ balance sheets under the GASB proposals. Currently, the liabilities are reported only in the footnotes to government financial statements. The figure doesn’t include local governments’ benefit obligations, for which it is difficult to get an accurate total.  Most governments haven’t yet committed money to pay for their retiree benefits and work on a “pay as you go” basis.

The typical way pensions default on their promise is through the devaluation of purchasing  power of currencies.  Pensions will pay the dollars or pounds or euro, etc. promised. These currencies will simply buy less.

This is why we are multi currency investors.   All currencies are at risk of devaluation, but by diversifying into the strongest currencies we can profit and protect purchasing power.

ENR asset management manages a multi currency portfolio plus provides their advisory clients with multi currency advice when currencies may be good or poor value.

They recently sent me (I am an advisory client) this note:  Effective immediately, we’re recommending that investors sell the Swedish krona and swap the currency for the Canadian dollar.

swedish kroner chart

On July 3rd, the Risksbank or Swedish Central Bank cut its main lending rate to a much larger than expected half a percentage point to 0.25% as fears of deflation grow. In our view, Scandinavia’s largest economy fears spillover from the euro-zone where deflation fears have started to grip some of its northern members. Sweden is a major trading partner with Germany and the rest of Europe and needs to remain export competitive.

As a result, the SEK has declined 6.7% this year versus the dollar and 5.4% versus the EUR in 2014. The ENR Global Currency Sandwich, which holds an equally-weighted basket of six currencies and gold, has suffered just one loss on this year’s currency basket – the Swedish krona. Our other currency holdings, including gold, the New Zealand dollar, British pound and others, are up in 2014 versus the U.S. dollar.

Since last spring, major commodity currencies have begun to recover and post broad-based gains against the American dollar and the EUR. Along with a 4.5% advance in copper prices since May 31st, we believe natural resource currencies are at the cusp of renewed strength, which should accelerate for the remainder of 2014.

This means that ENR’s Multicurrency Sandwich now contains:

British pound (GBP)

Norwegian krone (NOK)

Canadian dollar (CAD)

New Zealand dollar (NZD)

Singapore dollar (SGD)

Mexican peso (MXN)

Gold (optional)

Learn more about The Multicurrency Sandwich at ENR’s website

or write to Thomas Fischer at Thomas@enrasset.com

One easy way to invest even small amounts in Canadian dollars is with Guggenheim’s “CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar ETF” (Symbol FXC).   The fund is designed to track the price of the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar.

This ETF has a low expense ratio of  0.40% and can be purchased at Charles Schwab with no commissions.  This makes this fund a cost-effective investment relative to traditional means of investing in the foreign exchange market

An ETF with greater potential but with greater risk of volatility is the ETF “iShares MSCI Canada” (symbol EWC).

This ETF tracks the MSCI Canada Index which is composed mainly of stocks traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The underlying index may include large, mid or small cap companies mainly in energy, financials and materials.

yahoo etf chart

Click on chart to enlarge.  See the current chart of at www.finance.yahoo.com

We live in an era hindered by many promises that cannot be kept.  One way to protect against the loss of purchasing power of pensions is with multi currency investing.

Gary

Multi Currency Value Investing Seminar

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

(1) Accounting Changes Proposed for State, City Retiree-Benefit Plans

Urgent Multi Currency Diversification


We looked at the urgent need for multi currency diversification in last weekend’s International Investing & Business Seminar.

gary scott seminar

One delegate wrote: Dear Gary and Merri,  Thank you for the wonderful seminar on International Investing & Business!  Every part of the weekend stimulated my thinking and understanding, and I came home inspired and ready to work.

At the seminar we looked at seven reasons why the US dollar is in a precarious position similar to five years after the 1980s recession when it suffered a tremendous fall as shown in this chart from Grandfather.com.

gary scott seminar

Chart from Grandfather.com Economic Reports.

At the seminar we looked at how to structure savings in a safer way with a Three Point Wealth Protection Posture. Here are charts we viewed at the seminar.

gary scott seminar

Finally we reviewed three ways to gain this multi currency diversification… the first being three ETFs that make it easy for any sized investor to hold a multi currency portfolio.

gary scott seminar

The first is the Vanguard Total Bond ETF for investors who want to hold non US bonds in multi currencies.

gary scott seminar

The second is the Vanguard Total International ETF which allows small investors to spread their savings into other currencies via 6000 non US equities around the world.

The third is a managed multi currency account managed by ENR Asset Management in Canada and held by Jyske Bank in Denmark.  This portfolio invests in five currencies with strong fundamentals and gold.

gary scott seminar

You can get details about these five currencies and this portfolio from Thomas Fischer at Thomas@enrasset.com

Non US investors contact Jyske’s Henrik Boellingtoft at Henrik.boellingtoft@jbpb.dk

Gary

You can learn how to develop a multi currency portfolio with our Borrow-Low Deposit High Multi Currency Report or join us at our next  International Investing & Business Seminar.

Writer’s Camps – Recorded on MP3

Learn how to learn how to wrote and self publish from our recorded Writer’s Camp…

Seven P Secrets of Self Publishing

When you write, you can work anywhere. 

gary-scott-image

Here I am working poolside in the winter, at our Florida farm.

gary scott

Here I am with our hound Ma, working during the summer at our North Carolina farm.

Learn how to earn everywhere, while living anywhere you choose.  I have been able to earn by writing in Hong Kong, England, the Isle of Man, Dominican Republic and Ecuador to name a few of the places I have lived.   Anywhere I am,  I am  able to work.

All I need is my laptop.

That’s all you need too… a laptop to be free!

Before computers, a pencil and pad did the job.

Freedom is just one benefit you can gain from a laptop business.

Another benefit is income.   Writing has brought me both our farms in Florida and North carolina, free and clear… plus a lot more.

Another good example of earning potential is my friend Hugh Howey.   He was working for $10 an hour in a book store when he self published his novel Wool, typing in a storage room during his lunch breaks.

Soon he was earning over $100,000 a month on Amazon.com.  This helped secure a six-figure book deal from Simon & Schuster, and an option for film by Ridley Scott, director of Blade Runner and Alien.

That’s what he’s doing now.

Hugh Howey

Hugh and I playing chess (he beats me badly).

Writers like Hugh are great inspirations.

A couple of years ago Hugh  left Florida, and moved to South Africa.  He had a sailing catamaran built for him and now can sail the world while he continues to write.

Hugh explained it like this: And that’s the miracle of working as a writer: I can do it from anywhere and everywhere. The past few years, I’ve done a lot of writing from airplanes and airports while on business trips abroad.  SAND was entirely written overseas while traveling through seven different countries; I think it’s a better story because of those inspirations.  In upcoming years, I may be writing near your home port.

Hugh’s a super star writer and his success could not happen to a more deserving and talented person.  He pours enormous energy into being worthy of his readership.  But you do not have to be a million dollar a year earner or a traveler to benefit from writing.

The good news is… you do not need a huge success to have a rich and fulfilled lifestyle.  Self Publishing can bring you a life that most people only dream of, as a journeyman writer, instead of a super star.

May I hastily add that the path to stardom begins as a journeyman… so the journeyman’s path brings success without stardom… but can also lead to stardom.

What most success stories like Hugh’s rarely explain is the many hours of writing that was devoted before their self published book sales soared.   Hugh, like most writers were journeymen first.  Stardom came later.

Here are sevens secrets that can help you become a journeyman writer. 

The secrets are a writer’s armory of tools that allows almost anyone to create successful publications for income, freedom and fulfillment.

Take Merri’s and my publishing business as an example.  

Merri and I are not writing stars.  We are journeymen who have for more than 40 years, year in and year out, earned solid income writing and self publishing dozens of publications about multiple subjects.

Some years that income has been more than solid… over a million dollars.  Yet in terms of stardom, we are hardly known.

In a moment you’ll see why that’s fine for us and probably will be for you too.

First some history.

Merri became involved in self publishing over 40 years ago… first helping a veterinarian publish a book on a very specific market… animal acupuncture. Then she showed a needle point artist how to sell more books to an even more specific audience… “needle point enthusiasts”  about her needle point work to an audience larger than the population of the city she lived in.  This led Merri to eventually become Executive Editor of an award winning magazine in Florida.

My story allowed Merri and me to work and live from Hong Kong to London to Europe to Eastern Europe, then the Caribbean and then Ecuador… making millions in the process of following our adventures… having fun… while helping a large readership adapt to a rapidly changing world.

That’s what self publishing can bring, profit, adventure and fulfillment, a great feeling of worth and wonder.

Self Publishing has created exactly the lifestyle we desire allowing us to span the world and work with meaning and purpose.

Self Publishing has become a new business art form. 

The seven secrets can help you start your own self publishing business now.

Everything in publishing is new and exciting and changing.  Publishing is being recreated by the wonderful power of destructive technology.

Everything is new… except the seven secrets. 

Change in the publishing industry is disturbing many.   We love this evolution due to these seven secrets we call the 7Ps.  The 7 Ps are so fundamental to writing and publishing that new technology enhances rather than reduces their power.

The First P is Passion.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it AND create income with self publishing.  This can be your direct ticket to the kind of fulfillment you’ve always wanted.

Whether you want to travel the world or live as a recluse, work 12 hours a day or not work much at all,  you can set your schedule to succeed, if you’re willing to learn these seven secrets.

You can start part-time with any dream, passion, and budget.  Once you’ve created a product, you’ll enjoy the “multiple effect” of producing profits over and over again.

So the question is… What do you love to do?

What’s Your Passion:  An example is that thirty years ago, a client of Merri’s had a passion to help people who were in pain?  He published a series of pamphlets explaining various chiropractic disorders in very simple terms.  For example: “What Is Whiplash?”

The pamphlets contained solid information, but were simple 5″ x 7″ brochures with drawings and explanations. He sold them with a rack to chiropractors, who put them in their offices for patients to read.  These little self-published items sold year in and year out for decades.

There are thousands of ideas of this sort that can lead to big business.  It’s just a matter of defining and then acting on your passion.

Although I can work when I please and go where I wish, for me the most important reason for being a publisher is the satisfaction it brings. 

I love the projects I take on, so work doesn’t feel like, well… work.

What do you love?  If you love golf, then you can write and sell publications about golf.  Love travel, fishing, dogs, dolls, or art?  Write and sell publications in these fields.

Are you concerned about crime, war, poverty or environmental issues?  You can publish information products that help reduce these concerns.

Would you like to help the world be a more spiritual place?  Publish a newsletter, write a book (or hire someone to write it for you), record a tape… publish something that enlightens people.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it and earn income by publishing for ereaders, print on demand, CDs, lists, bound books, or any format you choose.

Be immersed in your passion and get paid well for it. 

This is why stardom is not the main goal for most writers and self publishers.  Extra income, more freedom and fulfillment are usually more than enough enough.

The seven Ps are:

#1: Passion

#2: Problem

#3: Person

#4: Profitably Priced Product

#5: Prospecting Pathway

#6: Promise

#7: Presentation

The first time I exposed others to the secrets in Self Publishing was in a weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.  We offered the camp for $1,500. 80 delegates enrolled.  People from all walks of life attended—chiropractors, businessmen, investors, doctors, realtors, inventors, airline pilots, engineers, and housewives.

Merri and I were so overwhelmed by the response, we decided to make it available to a larger audience.  We created a written course based on our current self publishing activity called “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.”  Then we recorded the weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.

Thousands have used the course as it has evolved over the decades.

You can receive both the written course and the recorded weekend seminar, in an MP3 file, in a special “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program I am making available to you.  The normal fee is $299 for the written course and $299 for the recorded workshop.   I’ll send you both the course and the recorded workshop and my course on how to expand the profits of what you write called “Eventful Business” (also $299) all for $299.  You save $598.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within 60 days for a full refund .

These courses are not theoretical.  They describe, step-by-step, how Merri and I built a million-dollar international business and how we are running this self publishing business right now.   We use the 7Ps today just as we did four decades ago to create a strong annual income.

This correspondence course is for those who would like their own international self publishing micro business for fun and profit. If you want fun, freedom, extra income and fulfillment with your own full or part time writing or want to build your existing business, by writing to sell you can profit from this course.  The course can help who want their own business or who want to have a business together or a family business.  This is the perfect course for those who can no longer find employment, who are looking for ways to earn abroad and who wish to retire and supplement their income.

Whether you are retired, an investor, chiropractor, doctor, dentist, professional or already own your own business, this offers another way to make money, to turn your passion into profit. We guarantee that we have shared all we know to help you start and run your own international business.  Enjoy and live a life of following your Passion to Profit… through writing.

Here is a special offer. 

Whatever your passion, however you do business, chances are you’ll be writing either to create a product or to sell a product. 

You save more than $598 because you also receive a recorded webinar conducted by our webmaster David Cross (at no extra cost).

David-cross-images tags:"2012-4-20"

David Cross

David has been our webmaster since our website began in the 1990s.  He is Merri’s and my business partner. We could not run our business as we do without him.

Learn the tactics we use in our web business that condenses 27 years of practical experience about search engine optimization, and writing for search engines.

For the last 27 years David has worked with companies large and small – IBM, Agora Publishing, AstraZeneca and many small business owners.  He has worked in 22 countries, and lived in six of them.

David’s clients span the globe and represent companies and charities both large and small.  From corporate giants to small, one-woman businesses and everything from finance, healthcare, publishing, technology, real estate, veterinarians, alternative health centers and everything in between.

David is an essential part of our web based business.

Myles Norin, CEO of Agora, Inc.  wrote:  “I have found David’s knowledge and experience unmatched in the industry.  Without David’s expertise and guidance for the past 7 years, we would not be nearly as successful as we are.”

As Senior Internet Consultant to Agora Inc. in Baltimore, MD, he worked closely with Agora’s publishers and marketers and – over a 7-year period – helped to propel Agora’s online revenues from around $20 million to well over $300 million.

David’s webinar will help you gain benefits in your micro business that large internet marketing companies use.  In this practical recorded workshop you will learn valuable skills to help your micro business.

There has never been a time when the opportunity for small businesses abroad has been so outstanding.  Expand your borders now!  Increase your economic security freedom, independence and success.

If you are not fully satisfied that this offers you enormous value simply email us for a full refund within 60 days.  You can keep all three courses as our thanks for giving our courses a try.

You also receive a report  “How to use Relaxed Concentration to Brainstorm Business Ideas” and a recorded workshop “How to Become and Remain Rich With Relaxed Concentration” at no additional cost.

Plus you get more in the program.

You receive regular writing and self publishing updates for a year.  Businesses usually need to evolve.  Merri and I continue to publish and have our independent businesses.  Some basics have remained for decades, but new strategies occur all the time throughout the year.  We’ll be sending along updates that share our most recent experiences as we learn and continue to grow our international micro business from Smalltown USA.

My special offer to you in this “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”, is that you receive:

  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell” course
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3,
  • MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The business course “Eventful Business”
  • Any updates to any of the courses, workshops, reports or recordings for a year

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within the first three months for a full refund. 

Order “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” and a full year of update lessons $299.  Click Here.      

See success stories from Self Publishers and a few who have attended the “Writer’s Camp” that you will receive on MP3.

 

Solid Multi Currency Value in a Wobbly World


How to choose a solid currency.

Our International Investing and Business Seminar looked at numerous way to buy solid investments in currencies, shares and gold.

gary soctt seminar

Rich Checkan speaking about investing in gold at our International Investing and Business Seminar.

The main emphasis in the multi currency workshop was on how to spot value that was leading to investment breakouts.

One delegate wrote: My wife and I want to thank you both very much for allowing us to attend the weekend seminar. The information we received was fantastic. We would have had to learn the hard way had we not gone to the event. I always tell people, you will pay for your education one way or another, it is a lot cheaper to get it up front than to learn from the school of hard knocks. Thank you both again. We will put to good use what we have learned. 

Getting solid, lasting value in currencies is of extra importance now.   US Federal default looms and Congress might not get its act together.

Yesterday’s New York Times article “Many in G.O.P. Offer Theory: Default Wouldn’t Be That Bad” says (see link to entire article at end of this note – bolds are mine):  Senator Richard Burr, Republican of North Carolina, a reliable friend of business on Capitol Hill and no one’s idea of a bomb thrower, isn’t buying the apocalyptic warnings that a default on United States government debt would lead to a global economic cataclysm.

“It really is irresponsible of the president to try to scare the markets,” said Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky.

“There’s no way to default on Oct. 17. We will have enough money to make interest payments,” said Representative Justin Amash, Republican of Michigan.

“There are a lot of things that are going to affect our economy,” said Representative Paul Broun, Republican of Georgia. “The greatest threat right now is Obamacare.”

“We always have enough money to pay our debt service,” said Mr. Burr, who pointed to a stream of tax revenue flowing into the Treasury as he shrugged off fears of a cascading financial crisis. “You’ve had the federal government out of work for close to two weeks; that’s about $24 billion a month. Every month, you have enough saved in salaries alone that you’re covering three-fifths, four-fifths of the total debt service, about $35 billion a month. That’s manageable for some time.”

A surprisingly broad section of the Republican Party is convinced that a threat once taken as economic fact may not exist — or at least may not be so serious.

Congress is playing with fore and the potential results are in uncharted waters.   What we do know is that right now the dollar and stock markets globally are falling.

We reviewed how and why we follow the stock market value analysis of Michael Keppler and Keppler Asset Management.

We reviewed this chart from Keppler’s value analysis. This shows how almost all profits in the US stock market since 1925 have been made in breakouts during just 39 months… ie. only 4% of the market movements.

keppler value analysis

Click on images to enlarge.

Top Value Major Markets

Next we viewed Keppler’s value markets and looked at a practical way to zero in on his advice.  State Street Bank and Trust Co. (one of the world’s largest fund managers) manages two mutual funds based on Keppler’s value advice.  By watching where they invest we can gain clues both as to which countries and shares in those countries might offer great value now.

For example this slide at our seminar showed Keppler’s Top ten Good Value Markets at his last quarterly report.

gary scott seminar

Here is State Street’s latest report on where they have invested that fund based on this.

Keppler value Analysis

From State Street Global Advisers latest report on the State Street Global Advantage Major Market Fund.

Next we reviewed the new ENR Viking Portfolios.  These are the former Jyske Global Asset Management Portfolios and are composed of a Low risk portfolio.

thomas fischer presentation

Medium risk and…

thomas fischer presentation

and high risk.

thomas fischer presentation

Investors can let ENR Managers manage a multi currency portfolio within these portfolios or become an advisory client and instruct ENR on which shares should be purchased and held at Jyske Bank in Denmark.

You can get details about the Viking Portfolios and about advisory investing from Thomas Fischer at Thomas@enrasset.com

Non US investors contact Jyske’s Henrik Boellingtoft at Henrik.boellingtoft@jbpb.dk

As the US Congress and government lead the global economy onto shaky ground… we can protect and prosper by finding sold values in a wobbly world.

Gary

You can learn how to develop a multi currency portfolio by reading our multi currency report or by joining us at our next International Investment & Business Seminar.

Learn how to find investing and lifestyle value in Ecuador.

How to Gain With Multi Currency Value Investments

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

 

 

 

Many in G.O.P. Offer Theory: Default Wouldn’t Be That Bad

More Problems Emerge in Multi Currency Market


More Problems Emerge in Multi Currency Market.

Our multi currency message entitled Important Multi Currency Shift of two weeks ago said: We can see a huge multi currency market shift  in this Emerging Market Value Update.   There was a huge value shift of global stock markets in 2010.

Prior to the 2010 shift we weighted our recommendations toward investments in emerging markets.  They enjoyed faster growth than developed markets.  Then in 2010 we warned that values had flipped.  Developed markets offered better value than emerging markets.

Now the values have flipped again.  This update suggests that this is a good time to take profits on over weighting of developed market shares and to re calibrate one’s portfolio to an over weighting of emerging market shares.

See what that emerging market news means for this share Riocan REIT.

REIT

Up 112% since

REIT

The year’s drop in this share price creates value and a high yield.

Both images from www.ca.finance.yahoo.com

We can see the continued revaluation of emerging markets in the weekly market update at Jyske Global Asset Management which says:

Turmoil in Emerging Markets

Paradoxically, the prospect for an improving US economy, and the thereof scaling back of the extraordinary monetary measures is exhibiting the weaknesses in the Emerging countries – causing investors to flee.  

Since May, international investors have reduced their exposure to emerging markets in expectation of an imminent scaling down of QE (Quarterly Earnings).  The selloff culminated this week where especially India and Turkey got severely hit with plunging currencies and surging bond yields, bringing back memories to the Asian financial crisis in 1997/98.

In India, the rupee plunged to a record low and benchmark Indian bond yields surged to a 12-year high in a panic-response to last week’s limited domestic capital control.

India’s large current account deficit and inability to introduce substantial economic reforms have made the rupee especially vulnerable to capital outflow. Since May, the Rupee have depreciated almost 20% versus the US dollar.

Eric Roseman at ENR Asset Management, who will take over the management of the funds held by American investors at Jyske as of September, also noted the potential emerging problems in his August Outlook.

A growing conflict in Egypt risks tipping the Middle East into a wider conflict, possibly threatening Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Israel. The United States, thus far, has failed to contain the Egyptian crisis. U.S. foreign policy failure holds the cards for possibly re-balancing the actors in the Middle Eastern theater, if Egypt slides deeper into political turmoil and distances itself from the United States.

From a regional perspective, the major markets continue to offer lower relative volatility than the emerging markets and we continue to overweight advanced economies in 2013; India’s deepening economic crisis is another dose of bad news for emerging markets.

This suggests that long term opportunity is building in emerging markets.

For shorter term, especially for investors who require income, high yield shares in major markets still make sense.

Eric also wrote:  Our asset allocation still favors high quality equities that mostly pay dividends.

We still recommend Colony Financial (CLNY) sporting a yield greater than 7% and trading at a 13% discount to book-value.

Riocan REIT (REI. UN), Canada’s largest commercial REIT, has fallen sharply but trades at incredible values at this price. Riocan sells at a 52-week low, trades at 7.9 times trailing earnings and yields 5.86%

For more details, American investors should contact Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Other Investors contact Henrik Boellingtoft at Jyske Private Bank at Henrik.boellingtoft@jbpb.dk

 Which to choose?

So where should one invest, in emerging markets or good value high yielding shares like Riocan?

My reply to the reader’s question below should help answer this question.

Gary,  Your recommended stock, Hyflux, has done poorly since your call. Unfortunately, I own it.  Do you still like it??  I know emerging market stocks are down; perhaps this is in sympathy.

My reply:  Yes, we have this in our portfolio as part of our long term growth strategy.

There are three negative elements at this stage.  One is the overall emerging market downgrade.  Singapore can hardly be called an emerging market but its main business is in emerging markets.

The next negative is the strong US dollar.  Over the last year the greenback has risen versus the currency in which the Hyflux shares are denominated.  

singapore dollar

US dollar rising against Singapore www.finance.yahoo.com chart

This to me creates extra value because the fundamentals for the Singapore dollar are strong and for the US dollar weak.

US GDP Growth last year 1.4%

Singapore GDP Growth last year 3.8%

US current account balance for last year  -$425 billion or -2.7% of GDP

Singapore current account balance for last year  +$49 billion or +19% of GDP

US Budget Balance as % of GDP for last year -4.5%

Singapore Budget Balance as % of GDP for last year +0.7%

US Unemployment  7.4%

Singapore Unemployment  2.1%

US$ Interest Rate 10 year bonds  2.71%

Singapore $ Interest Rate 10 year bonds 2.45%

This is a classic indicator that it is a good time to borrow US dollars and invest in Singapore dollars.

Third, Hyflux has substantial investments in the Middle East and I believe this has been detrimental. However they are good managers and also are in China and both China and the Middle East need water… so we continue to hold for the long term.

However note in our personal portfolio breakdown that this only represents 2% of our holdings.  We see this as a long term capital opportunity, but you should work with a financial adviser to see what portion of your portfolio should be geared to income and what part capital appreciation. You could also plan what portion of your investments should be dedicated to short, medium and long term growth based on your financial position and needs.

Multi currency subscriber can see our 2103 portfolio breakdown at our password protected site.

Gary

Get a password and our multi currency portfolio report (normally $79)  free when you enroll in our October or February Investing and Business course.

Learn about the Singapore dollar breakout and when breakouts earn the greatest profits.

Multi Currency Value Investing Seminar

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

Multi Currency Sandwich


The Multi Currency Sandwich answers a question readers often ask… “Why hold assets abroad?”

Why put your savings and investments in a country where investment managers are fixated on a currency that has fallen for almost 40 years?

Instead bank where you can do multi currency investing like the multi currency sandwich.

One Easter about 20 years ago, our newsletter coined the phrase Multi Currency Sandwich.

yen chart

(click on photo to enlarge)

The Japanese yen versus the US dollar ranging from 145 yen to 79 yen per dollar.

I remember the day well because on the Easter Sunday we had invited one of our Austrian bankers and his family for an Easter breakfast.  This was also the day that daylight savings changed.  Merri and I awoke and remembered “Fall Back – Spring Forward”.  However  for some reason we fell back… when forward we should have sprang!

Thinking we had an extra hour instead of one less we were still in our pajamas when the banker and his family… all dressed in their Sunday best, knocked on our front door.

One does not forget days like that.

I also recall a comment I made that day to the banker.  I told him that we were gong to advise our readers to borrow Japanese yen… and invest the loan in Mexican pesos.  The yen had risen in value versus the US dollar from the 140 yen to the dollar range to 111 yen per US dollar.   The yen interest rate was somewhere around 4% and Mexican peso bonds were paying at 12%.

I told him… this will be the most powerful investment advice I have given… ever.

How true that was!

yen chart

The yen immediately strengthened more and rose all the way to 79 yen per dollar.  That scared the heck out of many. Those who bailed lost… in some cases a lot!

My belief was that the yen was over valued even at 111.  My studies suggested that 120 was the correct parity.  This was a yen bubble. Every day that the yen was higher than 120 per dollar was an investing opportunity.

When the bubble burst, the yen fell clear back to 145 yen per dollar.   Readers  who had held on… as I did… made a huge profit.

Yen leverage has remained a wonderful overall long term strategy for 20 years.  Yen interest rates have normally been near or under 3% for 20 years!  Any  loan that was invested for more than 3% enjoyed pure extra profit!

Now the yen is too strong again (in my humble opinion).   Plus as you see below yen interest rates now are as low as 2%.

If I am correct, this is a good time to short the Japanese yen.

There are two easy ways to make this short yen speculation… one is through ETFs.

The way to short the yen is to borrow yen and use the loan to make investments that earn more than 3% in currencies that are likely to rise against the yen.

Let’s look at this borrowing yen approach first using the Borrow Low and Invest High strategy with yen loans.   Then we’ll look at the yen short ETF. 

The recent post at this site on Leveraged Asset Allocation shows how Jyske Bank’s JGAM is leveraging asset allocation portfolios with US dollar and euro loans.  This type of leverage is called hedged leverage because it has no forex risk.   Dollars and euro are borrowed at low interest rates and invested in higher yielding dollar and euro investments.  The added profit comes only from the difference between the loan costs and the yield or capital increase of the investment.

Let’s review a simple Multi Currency sandwich example.

Here are the current invest loan interest rates from Jyske.

JGAM Loan Rates

(Click on photo to enlarge).

In this example we invest $350,000 (we’ll see how to invest smaller amounts in a moment).   We borrow $520,000 in US dollars at 2.62% and $130,000 in euro at 2.5%.  This is the loan ratio used by JGAM at this time and gives us $1 million to invest.

We invest in two bonds. $200,000 is in a bond issued by Santos denominated in euro with a coupon of 8.25%.   The bond comes due 22-09-2070. This is a medium risk bond and yields of about 6.9%.

The second investment is $800,000 in the US dollar denominated bond offered by Danske Bank with a 7.125% coupon due 21-09-2037. This is a medium risk bond yielding about 5.9%.

The return on the Santos bond is appx: $13,800

The return on the Danske bond is appx: $47,200

The total return is  $61,000.

The loan cost in euro is $3,250 (2.5% on $130,000).

The loan cost  in dollars is $13,780 (2.6% on $520,000).

The total loan cost of $17,030 leaves a positive carry (extra profit).  The total return after the loan cost $43,970 or about 12.5% return on the $350,000 invested.   That return is diminished by one time, upfront loan costs on the first year of $1,300.  Then there are no added loan costs for the five year term of the loan.

The figures above are used for illustration purposes only. These are not recommendations as a portfolio would be far more diversified.

The risk in in the bonds… not currency parities.  Euros and dollars were borrowed. Equal amounts of Euros and dollars were invested.

Now let’s look at the same example but with borrowed yen.  The yen loan creates potential forex profit… or loss.

Currently one dollar equals about 82 yen.

Assume the same multi currency sandwich was created… but with $650,000 worth of borrowed yen instead of loans in dollars and euro.

The interest rate for yen is lower… only 2.5% versus 3.125% for the US dollar.   This bumps the return up to almost 12.8%.

However the forex potential is what becomes interesting. At 82 yen per dollar this requires a 53.3 million yen.

Assume that the yen returns to the purchasing power trend of 117 as shown in the chart below.

yen chart

Chart from Bloomberg.com shows the yen at 117

(Click on chart to enlarge)

A shift from 82 yen per dollar to 117 yen per dollar is a 35% drop.   If those dollars and euros bought back yen at the 117 parity it requires only $455,555 to repay that had been worth $650,000.  The forex profit is $194,445 or an extra 29% beyond the positive carry.  If that drop took three years to happen and one held the bonds (and their value did not change)…. the total return over three years would be 67.4%.

That is the upside.  For a loss of the same magnitude the yen would have to rise from 82 yen per dollar to 53 yen per dollar… a highly unlikely event.

If this could be of value to you… be sure to review this with an investment adviser to look at a broader diversification of bonds plus the forex risks… the bond risks as well as the forex and bond purchase and management costs to make sure that such a speculation would work for you.

American investors can get more details and answers from Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors can get details from René Mathys at mathys@jbpb.dk

For Smaller Amounts

JGAM has two types of clients… managed and advisory.  Normally the minimum for US clients managed clients is $200,000 and advisory one million dollars.

With leverage the managed minimum drops to $100,000 with one time leverage and $70,000 with two times leverage.

Canadian and other non US investors have a slightly higher minimum but much greater flexibility and freedom.

JGAM makes all decisions including composition of the loan with managed accounts.  Right now managed accounts have dollars and euro loans as shown in the Leveraged Asset Allocation posting of two days ago.

Advisory clients can choose the funding currency together with their Relationship Manager. The minimum for an Advisory is  1 million unleveraged or $500,000 with one time leverage (medium risk profile) and $350,000 with two times leverage (high risk profile).

Betting Against the Yen for Even Smaller Amounts.

Lou Shinamin at Ruggie Wealth outlined how to sell the Japanese yen short using ETFs.

Lou wrote:  I am watching a very nice cup and handle pattern forming on the Japanese Yen.  Aside from Forex, the easiest way to take advantage of the dollar strengthening against the Yen would be to look at  the ETF :  YCS .  Ultra short Japanese yen.

Get more details on this ETF from Lou Shinaman at lshinaman@ruggiewealth.com

One way for those who cannot open a  JGAM account to get the high bond income and forex potential, but not the positive carry is to buy the bonds from a US broker and buy the short yen ETF.

You can get details for buying the Danske and Santos bonds from Mike McDonald at Aegeon.  Michael McDonald at mmcdonald@aegiscap.com

Multi currency investing offers five enhanced benefits… asset protection…. greater privacy… broader diversification… forex potential and positive carry potential.    Since modern technology makes it as easy to bank in Europe and Asia as next door… these benefits are available to most investors if they learn how to Borrow Low and Invest High.

Gary

Join me with Thomas Fischer, Mike McDonald and Lou Shinaman at our February 1,2,3  Super Thinking + Investing & Business seminar in Mt. Dora, Florida.   See details here.

Save $79. Enroll in the seminar before Christmas and I’ll send our report Borrow Low-Deposit High Free. See details below.

Anti Success


Anti success…history suggests…. becomes the norm.   This appears to be the state of current economic policy as well.

Is this a formula for success… a 10% loss over almost 30 years?

Jaanese Index

Japanese Nikkei from www.finance.yahoo.com

(Click on photos to enlarge)

In the late 1980s the Tokyo Stock Exchange and Japanese real estate market were hot.  Japan was THE place to be.  Michael Creighton wrote the novel “Rising Sun” about how Japan was going to buy up all… well at least a lot of the US.   The Nikkei Stock Index skyrocketed and hit an all-time high in December 1989  of 38,957.44.   Downtown Tokyo commercial property was selling for $20,000 a square foot. Real estate in Tokyo alone was reckoned to be worth more than all the land in California.

Japanese banks granted increasingly risky loans.

Sound familiar… bubbles in the stock and real estate markets sucking the bank into bad deals?

Then as the chart above shows the market inevitably crashed.  Tokyo commercial prices dropped 99%.  Japanese home prices fell 90%. The Japanese government jumped in, flooded the market with cash… dropped interest rates to almost zero to get things stimulated.

By March 10, 2009, 20 years later the Nikkei Stock Index reached a 27-year low of 7054.98.   Today almost 30 years later the Nikkei is at 9925 still 10% below its 1984 level.

Some stimulation.  That plan worked well.

This is one reason why our International Investing Seminars offer unusual ideas in out of the way places.

New River

Our Oct 5-6-7, 2012  Super Thinking + International Investing and Business Seminar will be in this remote conference center, surrounded by….

New River

a forest… at the New River community room.

We meet in out of the way places to get away from every day thinking, because despite Japan’s policy failure, Europe and the US have adopted similar policies to stimulate their economies after the 2007 – 2008 US economic crash.

Thank God for China and its economic expansion to at least keep the global financial train chugging along.

Yet Jyske Global Asset Management’s (JGAM) recent market assessment does not bode well for that continued salvation.

JGAM wrote in its latest market update:   On fundamental economic data, the past week didn’t offer news that could change the overall picture of a global economy in poor condition. Most significant were disappointing purchasing managers’ data (PMI) from China and the eurozone. PMI from China was preliminary, but indicates a slowing economy. Especially, the PMI readings suggest that the eurozone is in recession and will continue to be so for the rest of the year. Also, FedEx offered a note of caution as it cut its full-year earnings forecast. FedEx is as a global logistics company seen as many as a proxy for global economic activity.

The Japanese have not gained either because they are still holding onto their same dismal formula.

JGAM says: Therefore, it came as no surprise that Bank of Japan this week decided to join the central banks in the US and the eurozone by easing monetary policy. Tokyo said that it will boost its asset-buying and loan program. Initially, this announcement caused a drop in the value of the yen (JPY), but the effect was short-lived.

The Europeans have also followed the same failed policy as JGAM notes:  On the currency markets the euro (EUR) could not sustain the strength gained after ECB’s recent announcement of a bond-buying program and hence, EUR has fallen back below 130 US dollar (USD).

The fundamental problem remains that governments do whatever they will do poorly compared to private enterprise.  So when the government tries to stimulate the economy they do in a way that is aimed at attracting the most votes… not in a way that actually works.  Political thought is short term and this does not bode well when long term resolutions are sought.

A September 25, 2012 New York Times article “Test for Obama as Deficit Stays Over $1 Trillion”  by Jackie Calmes shows that this problem of bad government spending and interference is not over.

Here are excerpts: Four years ago, Barack Obama campaigned for president on a promise to cut annual federal budget deficits in half by the end of his term. Then came financial calamity, $1.4 trillion in stimulus measures and a maddeningly slow economic recovery.

Now, despite small annual improvements, the deficit for the fiscal year that ends on Sunday will surpass $1 trillion for the fourth straight time.

Mr. Romney is proposing to reduce the deficit and encourage economic growth by substantially shrinking the government — unrealistically so, in the judgment of many budget experts — while further cutting taxes and increasing spending on the military.

Mr. Obama wants to combine spending cuts and tax increases on upper-income households to close the fiscal hole without fundamentally reducing the role of government or altering the government guarantees at the heart of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.

But long-term projections are notoriously unreliable. And in any case, budget analysts say that if the nation’s goal — at a moment when the economy is still shaky — is to start moving seriously toward fiscal balance, neither approach is likely to prove equal to the problem.

The plans of both, analysts say, would leave the public debt continuing to rise over the next decade as a percentage of gross domestic product, the measure that economists favor.

In other words… neither Romney nor Obama can keep their pre election promises and even if they did… the efforts would not work because the entire concept is flawed.

By thinking differently, we can see ways to profit in these stagnant economies.

For example during the Japanese crash our portfolio and many at Jyske Bank made 40, 50 even 100% gains in a year because they were leveraged with Japanese yen loans. Investors borrowed low…yen at 3% and less and made extra profits  and deposited high… bonds in Brazil and Mexico paying 10%… 12%, even 14% and more.

The positive carry (difference between loan cost and interest return) was pure profit plus forex profits were made as well.

This is still possible but with other type loans… though leverage does increase the risk of volatility and loss as well as higher profits.

JGAM’s model portfolios offer opportunity from low cost loan leverage now also.

Here were the portfolios before recent additions.

Here are the portfolios. Click on the photos to enlarge.

JGAM Low Risk Portfolio

Jyske JGAM Low Risk

Jyske JGAM Low Risk

JGAM Medium Risk Portfolio

medium risk w/o leverage

JGAM Medium Risk Portfolio With Leverage
http://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/7999873414/in/photostream

Jyske JGAM Medium Risk

JGAM High Risk Portfolio

Jyske JGAM High Risk Portfolio

EUR exposure and added yield
 
During the period 6-12 September, 2012 the Investment Committee decided on a number of new investments that have now been carried out. We decided to expand our equity universe with two European equities and to re-allocate our fixed income portfolio in order to obtain a higher yield while maintaining a moderate duration.
 
Equities
SAP AG (Germany)
Prysmian SpA (Italy)
 
Bonds
6.221% Telefonica Emisiones 03.07.2017 (USD)
6.25% Vale Overseas Limited 23.01.2017 (USD)
5.55% Alcoa Inc. 01.02.2017 (USD)

You can direct questions to me or contact Thomas Fisher of JGAM at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors should contact René Mathys of Jyske Private Bank  at mathys@jbpb.dk

Or you can join Thomas Fischer and me… our Ecuador export expert, plus a tax and pension specialist at our October 5-6-7 seminar to learn unusual ideas on how to protect your savings… gain extra profit and make sure you have a never ending income.

We’ll analyze the Prysmian Group, a leading player in the industry of high-technology cables and systems for energy and telecommunications. This company has with sales of nearly 10 billion dollars in 2011.

We’ll see how the Italian connection in this global company, (subsidiaries in 50 countries, 97 plants, 17 R&D Centers and about 22,000 employees) creates special value.  In addition you’ll see how this technology creates opportunity here in Small Town USA.

The seminar will be near Scottville, North Carolina (founded by an ancestor perhaps!)

New River

on the New River.

New River

New River at the General Store

New River

General Store.

New River

House in Scottville

We’ll see why due to new technology and old regulations there is special opportunity in this part of Smalltown USA.

Those interested can view real estate in the area.

There are four places left for the seminar below so enroll asap.

New York Times article “Test for Obama as Deficit Stays Over $1 Trillion”

Times article “Ritzy Retail”

The Great Pension Robbery III


The Great Pension Robbery III

shoemaker-ashe-county-art-images

Stephen Shoemaker’s “Virginia Creeper in Lansing”

One of the great joys in Ashe County are the murals on many buildings… especially those of the old time trains painted by Stephen Shoemaker.  Ashe County’s economic rise was due to the “Virgina Creeper” a train which crept up the mountains to pick up natural resources from the mines and forest.

Stephen is a famous artist in this area (his web site is linked below) and this rendering depicts the Virginia Creeper standing in Lansing…  the town (of two or three hundred people) nearest our farm.

Every time I see those paintings I am reminded of the Great Train Robbery the name given to a 1963 robbery at Bridego Railway Bridge in Buckinghamshire, England.  Almost $6 million dollars was stolen.

How odd that such a paltry sum made the theft famous.  Trillions are being stolen in the Great Pension Robbery and not enough is said.

This three part series has looked at the three ways that pensions are being robbed.

The first chapter in this series The Great Pension Robbery reviewed the first way pensions can be robbed through underfunding from insufficient contributions.

The Great Pension Robbery II looked at pension theft from lowered return on assets.

This message shows how the purchasing power of pension can be robbed by devaluing the currency.

The great train robbery netted about 6 million dollars in 1963.  To get the same purchasing power today would require a theft of $90 million or more.

Pity the poor train thief who spends 50 years in jail and finds that his hidden money buys less than a 15th of what he expected.

Yet should pensioners be treated in the same way?  Should we toil for 5o years and then find that the promised rewards of our pensions are almost worthless?

This is a sad fact… the likeliest pension loss will come via global currency devaluation.

Rising unsustainable government deficits and ultra low interest rates create pent up, hidden inflation. 

One way to protect again this loss is to have a multi currency portfolio.

We can watch for contrasts and distortions to spot currency trends that can equalize purchasing power.

Take for example the distortions in the parity between the interest rates and parity of the Brazilian real and the US dollar.  The chart below shows how the US dollar has risen and fallen versus the Brazilian real over the past five years.

brazil-real-chart-images

US dollar versus Brazilian real chart from finance.yahoo.com.

The real has gone up and fallen down but over five years it began at about two real per dollar and today five years later it is worth about two real per dollar.

Now the real has fallen dramatically yet pays almost six times more interest.

Thomas Fischer attended our most recent Writer’s Camp and talked about Brazilian real bonds.

On June 27, 2012 Thomas wrote: The Brazilian bonds are yielding as mentioned. The KRW bond maturing in March of 2015 (AAA rated) yields 5.75%.  Jyske Bank has a buy recommendation and a 12 months currency target of 1.90 (+8%) so if that pans out you are getting around 12%.

Morgan Stanley our other research partner is not convinced that the currency will appreciate that much so if you buy the bond it will be more of a currency speculation as the carry is 5.75%

Jyske estimated a 7% forex profit over a year.   They were wrong!  The profit boost came in six days!

On July 3, 2012 Thomas wrote again:  Hi Gary, The Brazilian real has appreciated almost 7% since we discussed the potential at your seminar.

brazil-real-chart-images

Short term US dollar versus Brazilian real chart.

Gain Balance From Distortions

This profit had seemed obvious to me.   The factors that cause currencies to be weak or strong include government debt and budget deficit.  The US has a budget deficit of about 8% of GDP.  Brazil’s is 2.5%.

A look at the Economist World Debt Clock shows US debt equals 61.2% of GDP and is growing at a rate of 20.6%.  Brazil’s debt is 59.3% of GDP and growing 9.9%.

Economist-global-debt-clock-iamges

The Economist Debt Clock. See link below.

When you hold a multi currency portfolio over a sustained period, you gain a never ending series of forex profit opportunities.

Over the past five years Brazilian bonds returned as much as 14% and the currency rose and fell versus the dollar but in the end is almost where it began. Today Brazilian bonds pay 5.75% and are loaded with upwards potential.  There is a great chance that at some stage in the next several years the Brazilian real will jump versus the greenback.  In the mean time you can earn the much higher interest rate.

Currencies rise and fall versus one another in the short term based on fear and greed.  Currencies move long term based on their fundamentals.

Here is our portfolio at JYSKE this time so you can see how we have spread out.

US Dollar  10%
AUD  8%
CAD  7%
NZD  7%
Dollar Bloc  32%

LatAe Mix 5%
MXN  5%
BRL 9%
LatAm Bloc 19%

Euro   13%
GBP  2%
DKK 6%
NOK  6%
PLN  8%
TRY 3%
Euro Bloc  38%
GSD   8%  –  Asia Bloc  8%

A multi currency portfolio is protection against pension robbery from devaluing currencies.

There is a a great chance that interest rates will remain low for some time.

JGAM  (Jyske Global Asset Management) sent me this note.

Central banks take action, again

The events of the week were central bank actions and U.S. job data.

Entering the week markets had already largely priced in further policy easing by the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Eurozone data showed that factory output remained weak, purchasing managers index remained in contraction area and unemployment had hit a record. Also, recent data had confirmed that the UK economy was sliding back into recession. Therefore, Thursday it came as no surprise that both the ECB and the BoE took action.
BoE expanded its asset purchase facility by British pound (GBP) 50bn to GBP 375bn, exactly as expected.

ECB cut its refinancing rate by 25 basis point to 0.75% and lowered its deposit rate to zero. As a consequence the euro (EUR) sank below 124 US dollar (USD).
The Danish National Bank (DNB) followed suit and lowered both the lending and the deposit rate by 25 basis points. The latter now stands at minus 0.20%. It’s the first time in the history of the DNB that the deposit rate is negative and it mirrors a healthy Danish economy.

Surprisingly, the Spanish and Italian bonds reacted negatively on the rate cuts. The reason could be that the market now think it’s less likely that a third long-term refinancing operation is forthcoming.

What the market had not anticipated was an action from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). Unexpectedly, PBoC cut its interest rate for the second time in the space of a month. Possibly, an indication that Chinese policymakers are concerned that the economy has not yet found a bottom.

In the U.S. there is also speculation that a central bank action could be coming in the form of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3). Lately, we have seen a weak report from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), indicating the first contraction in manufacturing activity for nearly three years. Also, the non-farm payroll data released today showed 60,000 new jobs created in June compared to an estimate of 100,000. The initial market reaction was a weakening of the EUR vs. the USD which might indicate reduced expectations of a QE3.

For more information on how to develop a multi currency portfolio contact Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Non American investors should contact Rene Mathys at mathys@jbpb.dk

These central bank actions suggest a slowing global economy.  This risk is further confirmed by a June 2012 article entitled “Everywhere you look, economies slowing” by Paul Wiseman of the Associated Press.

Here are some excerpts (bolds are mine): “The global economy’s foundations are weakening, one by one.  Already hobbled by Europe’s debt crisis, the world now risks being hurt by slowdowns in its economic powerhouses.

“The U.S. economy, the world’s largest, had a third straight month of feeble job growth in May. High-flying economies in China, India and Brazil are slowing, too.

“Since the global recession ended in 2009, the world economy has been fueled by rising powers in the developing world led by China, India and Brazil. Now, all three are running into trouble.

“China’s manufacturing weakened in May, according to surveys out Friday. Factory output was the weakest in three months.

“Australia and other Asian countries have come to rely on Chinese markets for their exports.

“India is suffering an even sharper slowdown. Its economic growth slowed to a 5.3% annual rate in the January-March quarter, the lowest in nine years. Output from India’s factories has declined. “Its consumers have seen inflation — which has averaged 9.2% a year since the start of 2010 — devour their wages.

“In Brazil, the economy practically stalled in the first quarter of 2012. It grew at just a 0.2% annual rate from the final three months of 2011, the government said Friday. That was below expectations of 0.5% growth. Flooding punished farmers.

“But Brazilian officials, like analysts in China, also pointed to another culprit, one that shows how problems in one part of the world cause problems in another: The ongoing trouble in Europe is taking a toll on exports.

“Fears of a global economic downturn have sent investors rushing toward the safest possible investments: U.S. and German government bonds. As a result, the interest rate on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has hit a record-low 1.46% Friday. The rate on the German 10-year bond is even lower: 1.17%.

“Treasuries are at 1.46 because people are freaking out,” says Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics.

These reports suggest a slowing global economy.  The strategy for this is for governments to lower interest rates around the world.  The slow economies can hurt business so more pensions will go unfunded.   The lowered interest rates can further rob pension purchasing powers as returns fall well below estimated asset growth.

Finally the efforts to stimulate the global economy can greatly increase national debt worldwide.  This debt is pent up inflation.

Whenever investors freak out forex profit, opportunities grow.  One way to tap into these currency opportunities is with a mulit currency portfolio.

Gary

Stephen Shoemaker website

Yahoo Brazilian real US dollar chart

Economist Global Debt Clock

Everywhere you look, economies slowing

Toxic Equity Markets


Equity markets appear to be growing more toxic.  What a great opportunity this creates!  See a Singapore investing idea below.

wikipedia ratings

This chart from a Wikipedia entry (linked below) shows that there are few AAA rated borrowers left.

There are several reasons why equity markets have been falling … beyond global economic shifts… the European debacle… excessive government debt just about everywhere and the recent slowdown in US employment.

These factors are bad enough to cause a crash, but beginning in May we naturally expected a slowdown because May is the time of year when markets traditionally drop.

A statistical analysis was done some years ago by Michael Keppler. This study shows that most appreciation in most major equity markets, is achieved from the beginning of November through the end of May.

Michael wrote: “Gary, We have done extensive research on seasonality and I am proud to announce that a shortened version of a major study which I have coauthored with our Director of Research, Dr. Xing Hong Xue, will be published in the Winter Issue of the Journal of Investing. Our research shows that basically in all major equity markets, nearly all returns are achieved from the beginning of November through the end of May. All the best to you and Merri. Michael”
Keppler showed that over 30 years, the Dow grew 8.16% overall.
There was 8.36% growth in the months November through April.
There was 0.37 growth in the months May  to October.$100 invested in the Dow grew to $848 overall over the 30 years.$100 invested in the Dow grew to $1,067 if it were invested only in the months of November through April.$100 invested in the Dow dropped to $79 if it were invested only in the months of May to October. Historically the best five months with the greatest change of low growth began last month. There is no on-off switch I know of but we should be thinking more about risk aversion at this time of year.
Ruggie Wealth Management agrees.  My Florida neighbor, Morgan Hatfield, works for Ruggie Wealth Management in Central Florida and sends me regular updates.

Ruggie, like JGAM is a small firm (which manages hundreds of millions not billions) but has repeatedly been listed as a top wealth manager in numerous magazines including Registered Rep Magazine Wealth Manager Web,  Financial Advisor Magazine,  Worth Magazine and Barron’s.

I also pay attention to the data Ruggie sends me like this data Ruggie wrote (bolds are mine):

Judging by what’s happening in the bond market, it appears that some investors are more concerned about the return of their money than the return on their money.

Screen shot 2012-05-31 at 6.56.10 AM

When investors get nervous about the stock market, you often see money flow into the government securities of perceived safe haven countries such as Germany, Japan, U.K., and the U.S. This increased demand helps drive down the yield on their bonds. In fact, take a look at the following chart to see some amazingly low government securities yields:

By contrast, yields on government securities in perceived “risky” countries such as Italy (10-year yield of 5.76 percent) and Spain (10-year yield of 6.10 percent) are much higher, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Unfortunately, even the government securities of the “safe” countries may experience a loss in “purchasing power.” For example, with inflation running at 2.3 percent in the U.S. for the 12 months ending in April, investors in 10-year U.S. government securities may lose purchasing power since the yield is less than the inflation rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On top of that, if interest rates rise over time, the bonds could experience a capital loss as the price of the bond adjusts to reflect current interest rates.

IF THE WORLD WAS A LAUNDROMAT, the U.S. might be the “cleanest dirty shirt”. As new signs point to a global slowdown, we’re on the lookout for countries that might hold up better in the rinse cycle and the U.S. could be that country, according to U.S. News & World Report.

The “cleanest dirty shirt” analogy comes from Mohamed El-Arian of PIMCO who says, “When you’re on a business trip that gets extended and you don’t have any more clean shirts, you wear the one that’s least dirty.”   In our case, you invest in the country that’s ‘least bad’.

‘Least bad’ may not sound like a great way to invest, but consider this. With the U.S. fiscal situation in horrible shape, you might expect investors to shun the U.S. dollar on fear the government will print dollars and reduce its value. Well, recently, investors have been clamoring to buy dollars. For example, last week, “The ICE dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of major currencies, rose to 82.416 – its highest level since 2010,” according to MarketWatch.

In the dollar’s case, nobody is suggesting that, in isolation, it looks great. Rather, when you compare it to another currency such as the euro – which represents 17 countries in Europe – it looks relatively better because Europe’s problems seem more pressing than ours.

Just like taking a dirty shirt to the Laundromat to get it cleaned, investments over time may turn from “dirty” to “clean” as problems get worked out and situations improve. There’s money to be made during this cleansing cycle and we’re doing our best to “clean up.”

Learn more about Ruggie Wealth from Morgan Hatfield at mhatfield@ruggiewealth.com

Ruggie’s message supports a note I sent to a Multi Currency subscriber  last week when he wrote:   Hi Gary,  Moody’s Investors Service on Wednesday downgraded nine Danish financial institutions, pointing to sluggish economic growth, risks from the euro zone debt crisis and structural changes to the covered bond market, a reliable source of cash.

Other banks hit by downgrades include Jyske Bank, Spar Nord Bank, Ringkjobing Landbobank and Sydbank.  Thomas and the crew at JGAM are great.  The rating downgrades are troubling. What are your thoughts?  Warm regards,

My reply confirms the importance of risk aversion and looking for value.  I replied:  The downgrade does not affect safety much if one is holding deposits less than 100,000 euros,  the amount guaranteed by the Danish government.

The Danish government’s credit is good according to this Wikipedia entry (linked below) its the 4th best in the world.

wikipedia ratings

The high ranking along with Ecuador’s S&P B ranking (and a 5% tax on all money taken out of Ecuador) are why I invest in Ecuador real estate but do not keep much in Ecuador banks, stocks or bonds.

Investments shares, bonds and such held at Jyske are held on behalf of the investor and are not part of the bank’s balance sheet so the downgrading does not affect them.

Shares (I hold quite a few Jyske shares) and/or bonds issued by Jyske or large cash balances could be at greater risk.

Thomas Fischer at JGAM can tell you a more exact amount of the Danish guarantee at any given time.  Also Thomas has a nine page Moodys Credit Report on Jyske and a presentation on the strength of Jyske Bank that is very interesting.

His email is Fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors should contact René Mathys  at mathys@jbpb.dk

I have always liked the people in Jyske’s management, their modest budgets (no limos for the CEO here)…  their no bonus pay plan for staff and equal responsibility philosophy to look after employee – shareholder and customer.   This I believe reduces the risk of a gigantic JP Morgan type debacle and is one reason I remain a long term shareholder.

I tend to be a thematic investor taking long term positions that I do not alter unless the theme changes.  This is why I also hold shares in Unicredit.

The themes I am investing in are based on my belief that investors typically oversell bad news and that Europe will recover.

This idea is hedged with some shares (Jyske being one along with Axel Spring and Sky Deutsch) that earn mainly in North Europe.  The theme here is based on the chance that the EU will create two euros… the Euro Hard and Euro Soft.  Jyske, Axel Spring and Sky Deutsch are all companies where a big share of their earnings are in areas that would be in the hard euro (Denmark, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Finland are likely targets).

This theme is based on the belief that the troubles have made most European shares an extra good value  and European banks an even better value with the added boost of a potential potential Euro split.

I also invest in the themes of water… electricity… silver and commodities plus Singapore real estate.

gary-scott-portfolio

Note that equities make up only 29% of my liquid portfolio and the other 71% are in bonds and this represents less than half of my total portfolio… the balance being in real estate.  In other words I am very diversified.

Other messages have noted that I am shifting towards agriculture and other basics as well… ie. water, food and shelter.

I rarely watch the price of the shares I hold. This in a way is laziness, but I like to think that my time is better spent on my own business where I have more control over events.

Instead I watch the themes.

On the theme of water, one of the shares I especially like (and have written about numerous times at this site) is Hyflux Ltd.  This is listed on the New York Stock Exchange with the symbol (HYFL.SI).

Hyflux purifies water with proprietary membranes.   They began with Chinese municipalities then switched their expansion to the Middle East.

As the Hyflux share chart shows the shares were hammered during the Middle East political awakening.

hyflux chart

Did the need for water go away?  Did Hyflux’s management skills and decade of experience and contacts disappear?

Based on belief in the theme (water) and the company combined with the principle that investors oversell during times of panic, I invested in more Hyflux shares last June.  They rose 31.8% up to May 2012… plus paid a dividend.

Then a bit of bad news came along.  An excerpt from this May 3, 2012 Reuters article entitled Brokers cut Hyflux target, estimates explains:   OCBC Investment Research and Maybank Kim Eng Research lowered their price targets on Hyflux Ltd after the water treatment company reported weaker-than-expected results.  OCBC cut its price target to S$1.35 from S$1.55 and maintained its hold rating, while Kim Eng reduced its target to S$1.15 from S$1.21 and maintained its sell rating.

Hyflux shares were up 0.4 percent at S$1.44, having risen around 20 percent so far this year.

OCBC cut its earnings forecast for Hyflux’s 2012 fiscal year by 14 percent and by 11 percent for 2013 on lower margin assumptions.

Due to the geographical switch in Hyflux’s order book profile to Asia from Middle East and North Africa, its gross margin fell to 38 percent in its first quarter from 51 percent a year ago, OCBC said.

Kim Eng downgraded its 2012-2014 earnings estimate by 10-15 percent on reduced margin assumptions.

This has pushed the shares down a bit again because Hyflux is doing the correct thing… diversifying back into China.

This is a formula I seek:

#1: Theme unchanged (there is still a growing water shortage).

#2: Business fundamentals unchanged or improved.

#3: Shares pushed down by short term news.

I continue to like the water theme and Hyflux technology.   Bad short term news creates added value.

Diversification is an important part of protection when markets are toxic. .

On the subject of toxicity numerous news stories that have reported  that Bluefin tuna carrying radioactive contamination from Japan have arrived at US shores 6,000 miles away. This  is the first time a huge migrating fish has been shown to carry radioactivity such a distance.

Screen shot 2012-05-31 at 7.04.04 AM

Photo from Washington Post article on Japanese radiation and Bluefin Tuna.

The article said “We were frankly kind of startled,” said Nicholas Fisher, one of the researchers reporting the findings online Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Merri and I know a lot about the insidious effects of radiation as we suffered radiation poisoning from Chernobyl.   In this time of radiation awareness, we are being more careful.

I regrettably may know too well about the effects of radiation on health. Growing up in the 1950s and 1960s, I swam in the Columbia River every summer day, not knowing (according to the Washington State Department of Health) that for more than 40 years, the U.S. government produced plutonium for nuclear weapons at the Hanford Site so until the 1970s, the Columbia River “held the distinction of being the most radioactive river in the United States”.

Then Merri and I were exposed to excessive doses of radiation from Chernobyl.  Added to this and/or regular, frequent air travel for decades our health suffered.

Our report “Protect Against Radiation” shows seven ways we regained and even improved our health.  Order this report here $4.99.
.
Gary
.
Thomas Fischer of JGAM will join our delegates at the June 2012 Writer’s Camp to help them learn how to invest better as well as gain global economic background for better writing perspective.   Plus he will be speaking at our North Carolina leaf change October 5-6-7 Earning With Quantum Thinking in a Micro Businesses seminar.

If you are diversifying abroad see this unique condo in San Vicente with views across the Chone of Bahia asking $50,000 negotiable!

san vicente ecuador condo

Pivotal Week – International Investments: Day 1


This is a pivotal week for international investments…here is an update on the values of major stock markets by Keppler Asset Management.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Keppler

The global economy is in tension.  US and Western European economies are both being forced to face up to debt, aging populations and huge unfunded future obligations in pensions, medical care and who knows what, amid a disintegrating, global social cohesion evidenced by terrorism… revolution and internal strife such as the bombing and killing in Norway.   

Huge losses will occur as the dollar and euro lose purchasing power.

The best way to protect against these losses is by always seeking value.

Understanding value is the tricky part.

This is why once a quarter we look at a major equity market valuation analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Here are Keppler’s Comments on Major Market Value for this quarter to July 2011.

Recent Developments & Outlook

After a strong first quarter, global equity markets were little changed on balance in the last three months. The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) finished the second quarter 2011 at LC 2,255 (-0.6 %), $ 3,290 (+0.5 %) and € 1,204 (-1.7 %), respectively.

Year-to-date, the MSCI World Index was up 2.9 % in local currencies and 5.3 % in US dollars. However, due to the strong recovery of the Euro versus the US dollar, it declined 2.6 % year-to-date in Euros. The Euro gained 2.2 % versus the US dollar in the second quarter and finished the first half of the year at 1.4499 USD/EUR — 8.1 % above its year-end 2010 level of 1.3416.

Seven markets advanced in the second quarter 2011, sixteen markets declined and one market was unchanged. Ireland had the highest return (+5.3 %), followed by Germany (+4 %) and New Zealand (+2.8 %). Greece (-18.3 %), Finland    (-9.8 %) and Denmark (-8.5 %) performed worst last quarter.

The best performing markets during the last six months were New Zealand (+9.6 %), Ireland (+8.4 %), France and Spain (both up 6.9 %). Finland (-13.1 %), Israel (-11.3 %) and Greece (-11 %) were the worst performing markets in the first half of 2011. Performance is in local currencies, unless mentioned otherwise.

The Top Value Model Portfolio, based on the Top Value Strategy (December 1969 = 100) using national MSCI country indices as hypothetical investment vehicles, finished the second quarter at LC 32,361 (unchanged), $ 31,711 (+2 %) and € 11,605 (-0.2 %). Year-to-date, the Top Value Model Portfolio gained 2.1 % in local currencies, 8.2 % in US dollars and 0.1 % in Euros, underperforming the benchmark by 0.8 percentage points in local currencies but outperforming in US dollars and Euros by 2.9 and 2.7 percentage points, respectively.

There were no changes in our performance ratings last quarter. The Top Value Model Portfolio holds the six “Buy”-rated markets Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom at equal weights. According to our analyses, a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

Our implicit three-to-five-year projection for the compound annual total return of the Equally-Weighted World Index now stands at 13.1 %, up from 11.9 % three months ago.

Fwd: Keppler

JGAM warns about the turmoil in its weekly update and says:

Week 18 July – 22 July

European Monetary Fund

After days of speculations, the financial markets could finally take a sigh of relief when the European leaders last night announced the much anticipated bail-out agreement.

Earlier this week, risky assets carefully started to rebound anxiously awaiting the result, however optimism really took off Thursday as a draft proposal circulated the media.

The positive sentiment continued into Friday as the summit announcement didn’t disappoint expectations.

The European leaders last night agreed on a new EUR 109bn bail-out of Greece, with an additional commitment of EUR 37bn expected from private bondholders.

On top of that the leaders have also agreed to lower the loan costs of Greece, Ireland and Portugal by 100-200 basis points, and to prolong maturing debt and to give the temporary bail-out fund, the European financial facility stability (EFSF) additional powers as well. The bail-out fund will in the future be able to act preemptively by quickly helping countries such as Spain and Italy if needed, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) style ability. The agreement is intended to stop the European debt turmoil and to protect Spain and Italy from any contagion effects.

Since Monday, the European common currency has appreciated with as much as 3% versus the US dollar, and is currently trading in the 1.4325 to 1.4425 range. During the same period, the interest (cost of borrowing) on the Italian 10 year government bond has fallen with 85 basis points from 6% to 5.15%, and by 400 basis points from 17.8% to 13.8% on the similar Greek issuance.

The risk now is whether the new agreement is big enough and/or whether it will follow the same pattern as the previous and eventually disappoint the market.

Fitch, the rating agency, is today warning the market that they will reduce Greece to “restricted default” should the intended prolonging of the maturing Greek debt go ahead as planned.

We expect a bumpy road ahead.

The managers at JGAM responded.  On 14 July JGAM’s Investment Committee held its ordinary, monthly meeting and reported .

In the weeks leading up to the meeting we had reduced the overall risk in our portfolios by moving gold and Swiss francs (CHF).  This week, the euro crisis has escalated with the downgrading of Portugal and Ireland to junk by Moody`s.

Mr. Silvio Berlusconi, the Prime Minister of Italy, rubbed salt in the open debt wounds, when he called his Finance Minister Mr. Giulio Tremonti an idiot. The open disagreement in the Italian government immediately caused markets to doubt whether Italian austerity measures can be agreed upon.

The growth picture in the US is becoming bleak with rising unemployment and a dreaded double dip, as rare as it is, cannot be ruled out.

China is expected to continue its monetary tightening, which could also dampen growth prospects.

With so much uncertainty, it is no wonder that volatility is increasing, but we believe that our current asset allocation and overall risk reduction through our gold and CHF positions are adequate in a volatile environment.

Due to these risks, we have interviewed Thomas Fischer JGAM Sr. Vice president about multi currency diversification.

 

fischer-checkan

Thomas Fischer (right) and  Rich Checkan (left).

We also interviewed Rich Checkan of the precious metals dealers Asset Strategies International.

You can also hear both recent interviews on where to invest globally now.

We have added phone interview updates to our Global Personal Portfolio service.

Here is how the updates work.

You email me your questions.  We will review them with experts and then answer them in telephone call updates.

We’ll send you the recorded calls.

Who is eligible to ask and to listen in to the call?

This service is free for all subscribers to our annual Multi Currency Service.

Not a Multi Currency subscriber?  Learn how to enroll here.

Non Multi Currency subscribers can enroll to have their questions answered for a one time charge of $9.99.

Order here $9.99.

Gary

See this Manabi farm with organic cashew potential.

See new idea on how to earn with Ecuador agriculture and exports .


manabi-ecuador-farm

Join Merri and me as we look at ways to fight international investment turmoil in the year ahead.

Last Day of our July Special. The offer to save up to $499 expires tonight at midnight.

We have started a program to help our readers create their own micro business working with these businesses as referrers, dealers and distributors.

What a match… tens of thousands of readers, many wanting to earn globally… meeting some great… really unique global businesses tied together with our communication system that can bring all this: training…. communicating and networking.

We are starting with these five businesses first.

#1: Jyske Global Asset Management  (JGAM)
#2: Bio Wash
#3: Candace Newman Essential Oils
#4: Roses
#5: Ecuador Imbabura Export Products

After attending our International Business and investing seminar on October 7-8-9, you will be qualified to enroll for referrer, distributor and dealer programs above and any others we develop. 

Enrolling in any of our online business development courses and attending one seminar provides full qualification to apply for all programs we provide for a year.

I’ll explain the first specific way you can tap into greater power for everlasting health and wealth in a moment.

First, may I remind you of  our July special that ends in just over two days?

We provide three e-courses that can help you develop your own micro business that we designed to help you earn anywhere you live in the world.

International Business Made EZ ($299)

Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher ($499)

Event – Full How to Earn With  Your Own Seminars ($349)

July Special.

Enroll before midnight July 24, 2011 for our October International Business & Investing Seminar (plus Frequency Modulation Workshop),   October 7, 8, 9, 2010 in the Blue Ridge Mountains of NC and choose any one of the three courses above for FREE.  You Save between $299 and $499.

Early enrollment for our October 7-9 North Carolina Course click here for details.

We have started the beta program, and the good news is that we are not charging a penny more more.  Our International Business Made EZ online course and our International Business Made EZ seminars remain the same price though we’ll now offer subscribers an entrance to doing business with many turnkey businesses.

The overall service can bring you the following benefits:

#1: Connect you via our our online course “International Business Made EZ” to here and now specific business opportunities.

#2: Keep you in touch with other readers in the program, share business tips, ideas contacts and even website support in some instances.

Our first turnkey business program is Jyske global Asset Management because our activities as publishers has a synchronicity with Jyske and JGAM.   We have been able to combine our training, communications and lead generation abilities with their financial organization.

Business is always a little more complicated when it entails financial products so we have created a beta program to develop this system.

A referrer does not have to be a registered as an investment adviser but JGAM does have a due diligence requirement. JGAM will also expect a certain amount of referrals per year though this amount has not been determined… hence this beta offer.

JGAM pays a percentage of their fee to the referrer up to a maximum 25% of their fee. This not only offers an excellent income generating opportunity but creates a potential long term income stream because JGAM keeps paying the fee as long as the client remains a client. Fees are paid on a quarterly basis.

There is also potential for growing long term income because JGAM pays the referrer based on the total assets under management.  If a referred client makes additional payments, the referrer will be paid on the total amount.

For example if an referrer refers a client who invests a minimum $100,000 and the annual fee is 2%, the referrer earns $500 per annum basic fee (as long as the customer remains with JGAM)… plus if the assets grow either through portfolio growth or added deposits… so too does the referrer’s fee.

We have set our first training JGAM training session for October 10, 2012.

This program will allow subscribers to any of our  online courses who have attended an International Business Made EZ seminar to become referrers for JGAM.

We have been working with Jyske Bank for over 20 years and Jyske Global Asset Management, a Jyske Bank wholly owned subsidiary. We started talking to Thomas Fischer Senior VP about an referral program for some time.  Finally,we introduced this opportunity for the first time at our June 2011 seminar.  The response was overwhelming.

Jyske Bank employs a staff of about 4,000 and operates 116 Danish branches, which makes it the second largest independent Danish bank. They offer a full range of financial solutions to retail as well as small and medium-sized corporate clients.

We have always liked Jyske because they are one of Europe’s largest currency traders and offer very simple but sophisticated multi currency investing services.  They are one of Europe’s largest currency traders and dealers.

We have especially enjoyed our business relation with Jyske because being open and honest is one of the core values of the bank group. Traditionally, Jyske formulates and communicates its values – and the way they understand and live by them – to the surrounding world. They work hard offering shareholders, customers and employees balanced opportunity.

We especially like the fact that Jyske employees are not paid bonuses.  No multi million pay outs are in the system that might temp staff to distort earnings or take undue risks.

Here is how you can apply for this program.

To start as a referrer,  there is first the compliance process with Jyske Bank.

Once that process is complete, our IBEZ system helps educate and assist referrer.

First… once a referrer has been approved by JGAM, and the referrer has completed our online course International Business Made EZ course and attended one of our  international investing and business seminars they can attend an exclusive training seminar at our farm.

We have a…

little-horse-creek

creekside…

little-horse-creek

seminar hall where…

little-horse-creek

unless the group grows too large, we’ll meet.   We’ll have lunch  on the deck looking over Little Horse Creek.

JGAM and our company conduct this one day intensive training for agents the day after each International Investing and Business seminar.

The first such seminar will be conducted Monday, October 10, 2011 immediately after our October 7-8-9 International Investing and Business Seminar in West Jefferson, North Carolina.

Part of the JGAM program is designed so we can assist referrers by referring readers in their locale to them.  So for example if a referrer is in Miami, we will send special emails to our readers in that area, help organize mini seminars… etc.

We can zero in as close as 20 miles to a location so for example we can send a separate email to every reader within 20 miles of the address of a referrer.  And although we won’t release the names in that area, we can send them a note of the opportunity.

We will also provide a referrer communication forum and update training as well as portfolio and investing ideas.  We have general plans at this stage but find the best way to develop systems is to refine through action. We expect our beta program this year to clarify how we can best help our readers become referrers and how we can help them succeed.

Step one is to start the compliance process with JGAM.  Thomas Fischer  can send you the Introducer Questionnaire and Terms of Business.

Thomas Fischer’s email is fischer@jgam.com

This will begin the process of establishing a relationship with JGAM.  Once this relation is approved and verified, then you will be able to enroll in the referrer training.

You must complete one of the online business development courses above and attend an International Business and Investing Seminar to be eligible for the October training.

All of our readers are invited to enroll in our International Business Made EZ Online Course and our International Business and Investing Seminar at any time.

Satisfaction Guaranteed.  Three Guarantees.

There is no guarantee that JGAM will approve your application as a referrer just because you enroll in the seminar or take the online course so we make two special guarantees.

First Guarantee. Regarding the online course International Business Made EZ.  Enroll in this course. Take it and if you are not satisfied for any reason within 30 days… let us know and we’ll give you a full refund.

Second Guarantee. Enroll in our October 7-8-9 International Business & Investing Seminar.  I’ll send you a recording of the June seminar now so you better understand what these seminars are and how they help you.  If you are not happy with what you hear, let us know within 30 days and we’ll give you a full refund. You keep the recorded seminar as our thanks.

Third Guarantee.  Your earnings potential has this guarantee.  First, any time between now and October… before you attend the International Business and Investing seminar if you fail to qualify as a JGAM referrer agent or change your mind before attending the International Business and Investing seminar you can ask for a full refund.

Early enrollment for our October 7-9 North Carolina Course click here for details.