Tag Archive | "investing"

An Investing Rule – Time Rules


An investment timing rule can help increase safety and avoid financial disaster.

The definition of good investing can change dramatically with time because most top investing managers are simply those who lucky when they are reckless for a short period of time.

Take for example, how some of the recent “best investment managers in the world” became… not so good.

A marketwatch.com article “Einhorn’s Greenlight fund sees wave of investor redemptions” (1) says: Billionaire hedge-fund manager David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital Inc. faced a wave of redemptions in recent months, pushing his assets below $3 billion.

Einhorn’s hedge-fund firm now manages about $2.5 billion, Greenlight told clients Tuesday evening at the firm’s annual meeting at the American Museum of Natural History in New York. That is down from about $5.5 billion as of the middle of last year.

The drop marks a new low for one of Wall Street’s most well-known hedge funds. Just five years ago, Greenlight would have counted as one of the industry’s largest hedge funds, managing $12 billion. Einhorn is one of a handful of managers, including John Paulson and William Ackman, who rose to prominence during the financial crisis, making large bets that paid off as the market crumbled.

But all three have posted weak returns and faced redemptions in recent years.

In other words when markets were falling, investment managers who took a bet as bear investors, seemed to be the world’s best investment managers.   Everything they touched turned to gold… until it didn’t.   Markets recovered.  Bear oriented investment managers “posted weak returns” or even losses.  The greater the bear philosophy, the better they did… for awhile and the worse their later returns.  The better seeming the managers… the greater the letdown.

The letdowns from this type manager often create more losses, when they are wrong, than profits they make during brief periods of time when they pick up spectacular gains.

The good investment rule is to invest for the long haul and have staying power.  Forget short term speculations and look for really long term gains.

Charlie Munger the number two person at Berkshire Hathaway, which has one of the best, long term performance records explained why having a long term outlook is such an important rule.

Munger said (bolds are mine): Nobody has a zero incidence of bad news coming to them too late, but that’s really low at Berkshire. Warren likes to say, ‘Just tell us the bad news, the good news can wait.’ So people trust us in that, and that helps prevent mistakes from escalating into disasters. When you’re not managing for quarterly earnings and you’re managing only for the long pull, you don’t give a damn what the next quarter’s earnings look like.

Taking a long term view takes off the pressure that can otherwise lead to hurried errors.

Plus the risk of loss in broad market indices rarely lasts for extended periods.

A study of 36 bear markets since 1900 (with dividends and inflation taken into account) showed that the median recovery time for bear markets to get back to their previous level is “just” 1.9 years.

There’s always something we do not know and some times recovery takes longer, but the chart below from Keppler Asset Management, based on a study of 89 years of the US market show that there is a 13% probability of loss in any one five year period.

keppler Asset Allocation chart

The 100+ year chart of the Dow below from Macrotrends.com shows that market do not collapse and remain low.  Sharp declines are almost always followed by fast recoveries.

stock chart

This means that even if an investor cannot hold on for full recovery, any loss is likely to drop quickly with each year.  Another Keppler chart shows that the maximum loss over five years if invested in the US market indices is -17.4%.  That’s not bad when one considers that most stop losses are recommended at 20% to 25%.

keppler chart

Time can really help us when we look for good investment rules.

If we take time to look at the long term picture we’ll see that every era has its own great, top investor, pretenders.  With time these reckless speculators come and go.  Yet the investing world and especially the media have short time memories, so they rave about and recommend them.  Beware of this short time, great investor allure.

If we take time to look at the long term picture we’ll also see that investing in a broad index of shares for the long term is the most dependable way to invest because time is our friend when investing.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

motif

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 118 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pi updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Keppler analysis and online access to all that analysis of the last three years.  Each update examines the current activity in  Pi, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 118 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more covering thousands of shares.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is one of two reason why my Pifolio lagged behind the S&P 500 from May 2018.

The US dollar has become overly strong.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The strong dollar gives non US shares extra profit potential.

The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away.  Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

The Time for Value is Near

Overseas, value investing is really a bargain following a dismal year in 2018.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/30789695468/in/dateposted-public/

It’s no secret that value-based equities in the United States and overseas have lagged their growth cousins since 2009.  It’s unusual for value to lag growth this long (see above chart).

Why has value so badly trailed growth in this cycle?  Investors have embraced growth because of accelerated earnings and growing revenues in sectors of the market that continue to lead the charge in this bull market: technology.

Recent declines in tech shares suggests that we’ll soon see a return to value.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrated my 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $366.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $99, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am including FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $366.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

On other bit in the bargain is that after the first year, you will continue to receive the market analysis but for only $39 a year.   You can cancel at any time, but for just over $3 a month you’ll receive all my updates on global investing.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 118 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pi updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

Gary

(1) www.marketwatch.com: Einhorns Greenlight fund sees wave of investor redemptions

(2) www.cnbc.com/2017/08/16/warren-buffetts-partner-charlie-munger-has-3-rules-for-a-career.html

Part 7- Why Half of America Cannot Sleep at Night


Stress kills and one of the top stress producers is worry about money.

Financial stress creates a self reinforcing downwards path as well.

Half of the American population cannot sleep at night because of stress.  Then the lack of sleep adds to the stress.  Our minds and bodies can’t react efficiently.  Our ability to function is hampered when we don’t sleep enough.

We start to feel trapped in a hostile world.

Remove one of the leading causes of stress.  You’ll sleep better, feel more comfortable, be healthier and more financially secure.

forbes

Image from Forbes article “Why is retirement so stressful” (1).

According to the American Psychological Association, the second most common reason for stress is worry about money.

One way to overcome the stress of financial worry is to invest in equities.

Yet stock investing is so stressful for many, it creates more tension than not having money.

One way to reduce stress is to not invest in stocks.  Put money in bonds or savings accounts or real estate.

This, however, presents the dilemma… of inflation.

asset strategies international

Image from assetstrategies.com article: “One of the best wealth insurance programs” (2)

Everyone should have some gold and or silver tucked away as insurance against hyper inflation.  The comfort of precious metals can reduce stress, but 5% to 10% of a portfolio is enough of the magic metals because they do not produce income.

On average, investing in shares is the best way to make the most highest long term return.   The chart below from Keppler Asset Management shows the historical return of a  dollar of investment in various asset types since 1920.

This graph suggests that equities are by far and away the biggest producer of gain.

Keppler Asset Allocation

Even though equities can be among the most stressful ways to invest, they still make sense, if, we use some stress reducing tactics.

One tool that can reduce the stress of investing in equities, is trailing stop loss orders. 

Stop loss orders sell your position at a pre-determined price.  Making strategic profit taking decisions in advance removes the tensions that come from the question “do I sell or should I hold” when there is dramatic market activity.

Use math-based volatility and trend based stop loss orders instead of purchase stop loss orders.

The traditional stop loss order is an order to sell a share when it reaches 20% to 25% of the price at investment.  For example if an investor buys an equity priced at $100 a share, a stop loss order would be set at $80 or $75.

If the price moves up, the stop loss order would be reset.  If the price rises to $110, the order to sell is raised to $88 or $82.50.  If the share’s price continues to rise so too does the order.

This limits the loss to 20% to 25% of the original investment and locks in profits.

Volatility – trend stop losses are math-based and more logical.

For example I use TradeStops.com (3), a 100% math-based financial technology website that helps take the stress out of investing.

They provide share analysis that allows investors to create math-based trailing stops so investors avoid pulling profits out too early or holding onto a losing stock for too long.

A one-size-fits-all trailing stop does not work for all stocks.  Some stocks are highly stable. Other stocks are highly volatile, The stop loss on any one equity should be based on the nature of the share.

Tradestops developed a program to solve this problem.  They use math to value a Volatility Quotient (VQ) that is a customized trailing stop for each stock in their database. Just like with a traditional trailing stop, the VQ stop will adjust as the market price of a stock goes up and will remain the same as the market price goes down.

Then Tradestops analysis the trend of each share’s price to create a Stock State Indicator (SSI) that suggests which way a share is likely to move (up or down).

The  SSI and VQ working together helps investors set a stop loss that is more accurate for any particular share.  A share that has a low volatility (VQ) and is trending down (SSI) may warrant a tighter stop loss, maybe 10% or 15% instead of 20% or 25%.

A highly volatile share with a high VQ that is trending up (SSI) might warrant a higher stop loss, maybe 25% or 30%.

Stop loss orders based on past performance and current trends are far more logical than just using a percent below an investment price.

Monitoring the Tradestops VQs and SSIs are just one part of of the stress reduction plan we teach in our Purposeful Investing Course(Pi) which shows how to add safety and increase long term performance while reducing stress.

You can learn more about Pi below.

There are numerous risks when it comes to investing, economic and technological shifts, market sentiment and basic economic fundamentals.   The greatest risks for most investors are the emotions that create so much stress and lead them to decisions that can ruin their lives.

Stress kills and one of the top stress producers is the erratic nature of short term share prices.  When you create your investing strategy include ways to dampen the tension building aspects of the portfolio you hold.  This will help you reduce stress in your life.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

motif

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 118 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pi updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Keppler analysis and online access to all that analysis of the last three years.  Each update examines the current activity in  Pi, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 118 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more covering thousands of shares.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is one of two reason why my Pifolio lagged behind the S&P 500 from May 2018.

The US dollar has become overly strong.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The strong dollar gives non US shares extra profit potential.

The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away.  Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

The Time for Value is Near

Overseas, value investing is really a bargain following a dismal year in 2018.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/30789695468/in/dateposted-public/

It’s no secret that value-based equities in the United States and overseas have lagged their growth cousins since 2009.  It’s unusual for value to lag growth this long (see above chart).

Why has value so badly trailed growth in this cycle?  Investors have embraced growth because of accelerated earnings and growing revenues in sectors of the market that continue to lead the charge in this bull market: technology.

Recent declines in tech shares suggests that we’ll soon see a return to value.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrated my 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $366.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $99, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am including FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $366.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

On other bit in the bargain is that after the first year, you will continue to receive the market analysis but for only $39 a year.   You can cancel at any time, but for just over $3 a month you’ll receive all my updates on global investing.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 118 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pi updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

Gary

(1) www.forbes.com: Why is retirement so stressful

(2) www.assetstrategies.com/one-of-the-best-wealth-insurance-programs

(3) www.tradestops.com

At the Gambler’s Heart


Wanna be a gambler?

Start a casino or be a pro.  These are the only way to be sure you’ll win.

There are about 1,500 casinos within the United States.  The total revenue for the gambling industry in the United States each year is about $40 billion. This means that if all casinos profited equally, they would make, on average, $26,666,666 annually. When divided by the 365 days in a year, the result is about $73,000 each day. This is only a mean number, however. Some casinos make much more, while others make much less.

These casinos don’t profit by letters gamblers win.

The casino that makes the most money in Las Vegas is said to be Wynn Las Vegas (around $500 million over a year).

The key for Wynn, is that gambling is simply a come-on to help attract guests.   67% of the company’s revenue is dominated by food and beverage, day and nightclub operations and the hotel room income.

If you listen to Steve Wynn talk about building a casino, he reinforces the fact that gambling is not the key. He says: “it’s the design of the entire resort that leads to this performance. It’s sight lines, material textures, performances, architecture, and every other decision that goes into building a great resort”.

Most of us cannot do that… build a casino and go through the myriad of hoops even to get started much less run the place.

Okay how about starting an Internet casino?

Starting a casino online still requires a big investment just to get started.  Most gambling sites lease their software from one of the big 3 casino software providers and they are expensive…  $11,000 or $12,000 a month for the software.  They also get a cut of the casinos’ winnings along with affiliates that advertise the casino in exchange for a commission on each player.  These and other expenses add up to $20,000 a month in fixed expenses, and commission that reach 40% of the revenue created by each gambler.  To just break even, an online casino needs to earn enough money so that 60% of its earnings equate to $20,000 a month.  So we’re looking at a minimum casino win of at least $33,000 a month just to break even.

The math in online gambling says that each new gambler who signs on to an Internet gambling site eventually generates $1,000 in revenue through his or her losses.

We may not want to take that risk… with all that expanse and know how required.  Nor do we want to be the gambled that loses a grand!

So can we become a professional gambler?

Think hard before quitting your day job. Only one-half of 1 percent of all gamblers fall into the professional category, according to the Council on Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey. While actual numbers are hard to come by, people in the field say the number of professional gamblers may be as few as 100,000 nationwide. Such gamblers are heavily regulated and must win a lot — and keep good records — to make the financials work.

Professional gamblers really are not gamblers, but are investing pros who cash in on the imbalances of gamblers.

Experts say that unlike compulsive gamblers, professional gamblers approach betting as a job rather than as a fulfillment of an addiction.

”Professional gamblers never go over the line,” says Kevin O’Neill, the deputy director of the Council on Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey, an affiliate of the National Council on Problem Gambling that has a prominent role because of Atlantic City’s casino industry. ”They take carefully calculated risks and know exactly when they have an edge.”

”There are only a few games you can make money on in the long run,” Mr. Miller said. ”You can’t beat the casinos. In sports betting you just have to beat the spread,” the expected point difference between the favored team and the underdog.

Professional gambling requires precision money management and meticulous record-keeping — practices in which most gamblers do not engage.

So we can’t start a casino real or online.  We probably won’t become a professional gambler.

Let’s do the stock market instead!

We find the same factors at play in stock markets as in casinos.   The big banks and brokerages are as rich (richer actually) than the casinos. They make their money taking a slice off each bet we make as investors.   They charge us to let us get in and stay in the game, often getting a share (management fee) of all the action (wins only, no sharing the losses).

On top of that the banks and brokerages hire equip and train professional investors  who often bet against their own customers!

When we invest in financial and commodity markets, we are either gamblers or pros, long term winners or losers.

Investing pros follow the same rules as professional gamblers.  Professional investing includes precision money management and meticulous record-keeping.

There are three huge advantages that investors have over gamblers.  We have many more games to choose from. We get to  make the odds. We can decide when to end the game.

When the dice stop rolling… when the wheel comes to a halt.  When the last card in flipped… the gambler’s bet is over.  Investors choose when the game ends so the bet can run for decades until the investment is a winning hand.

Investing is an activity where you can make money in the long run, but can only be sure to make money, when invested for the long run.

Professional investors never go over the line.  They take carefully calculated risks and know exactly how long they can hold an investment… when they will take a profit and when they will accept a loss.

We have enjoyed ten years where investing has been easy.  Even the stock market gamblers have looked good.  These easy conditions won’t last and when they change… the pros will make even more money… from guess who?

Earn.  Save.  Invest.  When you do, invest like a pro.

Gary

Profitable Investing Made EZ

There are only three steps to sustained, safe profits in investing.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value professional investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make professional investing EZ because you become smarter than the smartest man in the world.

newton

Sir Issac Newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market. 

Newton said: “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.”

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence in seeking value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why my Purposeful investing course (Pi) is based around mathematicians not economists.

I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline in our Pi course.

Use math and time, not emotion and timing to protect your wealth.

We need a strategy so our savings, investments & income are sufficient for a full lifetime which can be much longer than statistics suggest.  That’s really good to know but longer life expectancy is expected to worsen the shortfall in Social Security by 11 percent over the next 75 years.

What will a longer, active life do to our savings and budgets?

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed that some people, such as Warren Buffett, have a three point good value strategy that increases their wealth again and again.

What are the three tactics of this strategy?

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

A research paper that studied Warren Buffet’s investing strategy was published at Yale University’s website. This research shows that the stocks he chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power so you can let time do its work.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffet strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third, limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses value, time and leverage to buy and hold “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He uses limited leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

You can learn how to use this type of three point strategy with the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  This course is based on my 50 years of global investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Pi Model Portfolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it is based entirely on good math and uses time to take advantage of value.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 118 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pi updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Keppler analysis and online access to all that analysis of the last three years.  Each update examines the current activity in  Pi, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 118 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more covering thousands of shares.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is one of two reason why my Pifolio lagged behind the S&P 500 from May 2018.

The US dollar has become overly strong.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The strong dollar gives non US shares extra profit potential.

The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away.  Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

The Time for Value is Near

Overseas, value investing is really a bargain following a dismal year in 2018.

ENR chart

It’s no secret that value-based equities in the United States and overseas have lagged their growth cousins since 2009.  It’s unusual for value to lag growth this long (see above chart).

Why has value so badly trailed growth in this cycle?  Investors have embraced growth because of accelerated earnings and growing revenues in sectors of the market that continue to lead the charge in this bull market: technology.

Recent declines in tech shares suggests that we’ll soon see a return to value.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrated my 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $366.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $99, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am including FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $366.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

On other bit in the bargain is that after the first year, you will continue to receive the market analysis but for only $39 a year.   You can cancel at any time, but for just over $3 a month you’ll receive all my updates on global investing.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 118 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pi updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

Gary

 

The Obvious “Unbelievable”


Unbelievable

That’s the beginning title of a Wall Street Journal article “This is Unbelievable’: A Hedge Fund Star Dims, and Investors Flee” (1).

The article says: After more than a decade of winning and unconventional behavior, David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital has shrunk by half. Frustrated clients are bolting

For years, David Einhorn’s investors didn’t seem to mind his unusual ways—the aloofness toward clients, midday naps, unpopular stock picks, late nights on the town. Until the billionaire hedge-fund manager fell into a slump.

After more than a decade of winning on Wall Street, Mr. Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital Inc. has shrunk to about $5.5 billion in assets under management, his investors estimate, from a reported $12 billion in 2014, and his investments are struggling.

The value of an investment in Mr. Einhorn’s main fund was down 11.3% at the end of 2017 from 2014’s end. The S&P 500 grew 38.3%, including dividends, in the same period. The average stock-focused hedge fund gained 18.3% in the period, according to HFR, a firm that tracks hedge funds.

The fund dropped 7.7% in June and is down 18.7% for the year, compared with a rise of 2.65% for the S&P 500 and 1% for stock hedge funds.

The obvious unbelievable is not this man’s failure but the fact that investors find these losses unbelievable.

One benefit of my 50 years experience is an ever growing respect for the phrase… “past performance is no guarantee of future returns”.

The canopy of history is painted with stars who had an idea that worked well… until it did not.

These investors looked like geniuses until their investments crashed and burned.

There are a few exceptions, Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch and John Templeton, to name a few, but they would be the first to tell you that year to year, we never know how their investments will perform.

How to get investment reliability.

The only test of investment reliability that has surviveed the test of time is time.

The charts below are excerpts from our Purposeful Investing Course.  These charts reveal lessons about the effect of time horizons on risk.

keppler asset allocation study

The chart above deals with return, risk and time horizons.  This chart shows, that over the 89 year period, the best one year indices’ performance was 162.8%.   That is good.

However the worst was a -67.5% loss in one year.  That is bad.

The average return over the 89 years was 12.3%.   The story changes considerably for a five year holding period.   The highest return is down to 36.1%, but the worst loss was only – 17.1%.

After 20 years the average per annum return dropped to 12.1% but there was no risk of loss.

Time reduces risk if you have a diversified portfolio.  A potential decline in the price of a stock does not ultimately raise the risk if the decline is temporary and the probability of selling during the decline is low.

The diagrams below show that equity investments can fluctuate widely from year to year, offering potential for high returns but also high risk.  As holding periods become longer, the fluctuations decrease.  The performance between stocks and fixed interest investments also widen.

The fact that equity returns fluctuate widely in the short run and significantly outperform bonds in the long run illustrates the importance of the investment time horizon.

keppler Asset Allocation chart

keppler Asset Allocation chart

These charts show that investing in a five year period is much safer than a one year period.  If you have a 15 year time horizon, the risk of loss, even in stocks is almost negligible.

Here are questions to answer for your particular investing needs:

What is your time horizon?

What average return do your investment alternatives yield over comparable periods of time?

In addition to selecting the best class of assets with the correct time horizons for your needs, the best way to reduce risk is to apply sound margin-of-safety concepts such as purchasing securities below their intrinsic value and diversification.

Investing in indices provides the diversification and our Purposeful Investing Course teaches how to easily select good value country stock market ETFs to hold long term for the highest probability of maximum return.

When we invest, we always accept risk.  It is simply unbelievable that an investment is without risk.

Believe that there is always something we do not know.

Manage your investments accordingly.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

motif

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 118 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pi updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Keppler analysis and online access to all that analysis of the last three years.  Each update examines the current activity in  Pi, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 118 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more covering thousands of shares.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is one of two reason why my Pifolio lagged behind the S&P 500 from May 2018.

The US dollar has become overly strong.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The strong dollar gives non US shares extra profit potential.

The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away.  Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

The Time for Value is Near

Overseas, value investing is really a bargain following a dismal year in 2018.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/30789695468/in/dateposted-public/

It’s no secret that value-based equities in the United States and overseas have lagged their growth cousins since 2009.  It’s unusual for value to lag growth this long (see above chart).

Why has value so badly trailed growth in this cycle?  Investors have embraced growth because of accelerated earnings and growing revenues in sectors of the market that continue to lead the charge in this bull market: technology.

Recent declines in tech shares suggests that we’ll soon see a return to value.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrated my 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $366.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $99, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am including FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $366.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

On other bit in the bargain is that after the first year, you will continue to receive the market analysis but for only $39 a year.   You can cancel at any time, but for just over $3 a month you’ll receive all my updates on global investing.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 118 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pi updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

Gary

www.wsj.com: This is unbelievable a hedge fund star dims

 

How to Value Silver & Gold


What is the real value of gold?  Everyone should have a holding in precious metals, but as an investor who started accumulating (and speculating in) gold almost 50 years ago, I have learned (often the hard way) that precious metals should only be accumulated when their price makes them a good value.  Even then, one must expect the price to rise and fall in unexpected ways.

This begs the question, “When does gold’s price represent good value?”   Today I am sending you a deep analysis, based on these 50 years of experience, of gold’s pricing in terms of inflation that hopefully helps answer this question.   This research is part of a $39.99 report, but I am sending it to you free and without obligation.

gold

Cuban 1/10th ounce gold coins.

A collapsing US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health and wealth.  Yet there are many signs that the greenback’s strength is in serious jeopardy. 

One frightening statistic is the hundreds of billions of trade deficit that the US incurs year after year.

Many other factors such as growing federal budget deficits and low national savings mean that trade deficits are likely to widen even more.

Larger federal deficits and the huge national debt are another problems.  When the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently passed 20,000, another milestone of “20” took place that has a much darker meaning to your and my spending power.  The U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow is likely to come back down below 20,000.  National debt probably will not fall.

In the past decade US debt nearly doubled beyond all the debt of the US  Department of the Treasury since 1790.  The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the rate of  debt will continue to rise for at least ten more years.

That debt does not include state and local debt.  That debt does not include agency debt (debt issued by federal agencies and government-sponsored enterprises) which is “guesstimated” to be another $8.6 trillion or so.

These dreadful numbers do not include unfunded liabilities such as Social Security and Medicare.

Federal National Debt per person is about $60,923.   Add in all the other debt and every American owes over $100,000!

How can America pay this back?  The answer is they cannot.  Payback,  however, actually does not matter.  No one expects the US to pay back their debt.

Investors do expect the US to pay interest on its debt and this creates the really big problem of rising national debt service

During most of the last decade when the national debt was skyrocketing, interest rates were plunging and have remained really low.  Now rates are expected to rise as will the US debt service.  The chart from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows that debt service is expected to more than triple in the next ten years.

dollar charts

This is an extra half trillion dollars a year that won’t be spent on roads, on the military, on health care, the environment or schools.  That rising debt service creates a vicious cycle that can only lead to a devaluation of the US dollar so the debt can be paid, but in phony terms.  This is why investors need to own gold and precious metals.

However, because metals are commodities and markets fluctuate for many reasons,  gold is not always a good value.

Good value investors look for “ideal conditions” before they invest long term in gold.   There are times when a rare distortion in gold’s pricing occurs.   When gold’s price drops to a point of value history has shown it will “almost always” rise.  The only question is time.

The words “almost always” indicates that there is risk.  There is always risk that a basic fundamental has changed and will not correct in any targeted period of time.   Or a new fundamental has shifted dynamics to such an extent that the distortion never corrects.   There is always risk.  Profit is the reward for taking that risk, but there is always a chance of loss which is why we should always seek a price that represents good value.

The way to look for gold’s ideal price is to compare it to inflation.  

This is not as easy as inflation is hard to define.  Also gold’s price was fixed for many years at $35 an ounce.  There is confusion as to what the real price of gold should have been at the end of the war.

These factors distort the accuracy of the answer to… “How much is gold really worth now? What is its real value?”

Here are a few theories that can help us understand the relationship between the price of gold and cost of living.

First, we use gold’s 1944 price and the costs of houses and cars and wages at the same time.  Since the mid 1940s, US median income increased 29 times.  House prices rose 47 times.  The cost of cars jumped 36 times.

Gold was up 35 times in the same period from $35 to $1,235 an ounce.

If these conclusions are accurate,  it means that gold was a reasonable hedge against inflation.  Had you stored a pile of this precious metals in 1942 to buy a car, now you could do it.  A house maybe not, but the statistical house purchased today might be very different from the statistical house purchased in the mid 1940s.

The gold/cost of living relationship is true for the cost of going to a movie, up 33 times.  Apartment rentals are up 34 times as well.

But other basics have inflated far less.  Gas is up 19 times, but of course bounces around a lot.  Postage 16 times.  Bread 21 times.  Sugar 10 times. Hamburger about 13 times.  Coffee  11 times.  Eggs 13 times increase.  Milk 16 times.

Gold failed for keeping up with education.  The biggest increase is for Harvard tuition, up 107 times.  Or does this mean that a Harvard education has become a really lousy value?  (Well, that’s a question for another time.)

This first comparison suggests that gold is not necessarily badly undervalued at a price of $1,225.   If the conclusions of the inflation are correct, this first comparison suggests that anytime gold drops below $1,225 it is likely a fair value, priced about where it should be in relationship to other costs of living.

Second Comparison

inflation

Another way of looking at inflation is to lump all the price increases together.  In this instance (according to the inflation calculator website that uses the graph above)  prices overall have risen 13.7 times since the end of WWII.

This second comparison would suggest that gold, up 35 times, has risen far more than inflation and is not a good value at $1,225.  However, because the price of gold was fixed at $35 an ounce, the original price must be suspect.

Third Comparison

If we use the 1944 inflation rate and compare it to the price of gold in 1971, we see a value conclusion similar to comparison #1.  Gold is a fair value at around $1,225.

Why 1971?  That’s the year President Nixon told the Fed to stop honoring the dollar’s value in gold.  That meant foreign central banks could no longer exchange their dollars for U.S. gold, essentially taking the dollar off the gold standard.  Unhinged from the dollar, gold quickly shot up to $120 per ounce in the open market.  This $120 price is a glimpse of what the correct price of gold may have been in the mid 1940s.

If this third theory is correct, the price of gold has risen from $120 to $1,225, up about ten times, less than the 13.7 times inflation from 1945.

On the other hand, gold’s price rise from 1971 is still much higher than inflation from 1971 until now.  The inflation calculator website’s chart below shows inflation since 1971 has pushed prices up 5.8 times.  This would suggest that gold around $696 an ounce would be a good value.

inflation

However, since the $35 an ounce gold fixing obscures the true price rise, if we split the price half way between the $35 and 1971 price ($120), we get perhaps a more accurate view.  The adjusted price is $77.   If $77 was a more accurate real value for gold in the mid 1940s, then its price has risen 15 times and is in line with the 13.7 times cost of living increase.

Fourth Comparison

The fourth comparison uses a chart from Macrotrends.com that shows the price of gold since 1905 without adjusting for inflation.

inflation

The same site has this chart showing the price of gold based adjusted to the Consumer Price Index.

inflation

In this comparison, gold’s actual price is almost the same as it adjusted purchasing power price, around $1,235.

Conclusion

The comparisons above are indicators that the price of gold is likely to continue rising and falling along the cost of living increases from a current fair value of $1,225.  This is the premise we use in our good value investing course Pi.

We keep the $696 price in mind when we calculate potential draw downs, in case the assumption of a $1,225 fair gold price turns out to be horribly wrong.

These comparisons crystallize the fact that there is risk when it comes to speculating in gold.   They remind us never to speculate more than we can afford to lose or at least hold for extended periods of times.  They also remind us not to catch a gold fever when we read claims of $2,000 or $5,000 an ounce gold!  Eventually the huge American debt will fire up inflation again and that will eventually turn into mega inflation.  Then gold prices may shoot that high.  In the interim whenever gold drops below $1,225, it’s probably a good value and investors who accumulate below that price will do well.

There are other ways to cash in on precious metals.  One approach is to keep an eye on the Gold Silver ratio.  When the Gold Silver Ratio reaches 80 and gold is at or below $1,225 a speculation in silver is most likely to be a good value.

This value indicator is simple because the gold silver ratio is rarely as high as 80, only three times in 36 years as the chart below shows.

gold silver spread

Chart from www.goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html#36_year_gold_price

The spread hit 80 in 2015 and again in March 2016, but we can see from the chart above that a drop in the spread was on its way.   The trend was for a continued lowering of the spread as silver’s price rise was much stronger than gold’s throughout 2016.

This chart below from infomine.com shows the trend clearly.

silver

http://www.infomine.com/investment/price-ratios/gold-silver/10-year/

There are numerous ways to invest in gold and silver, as a short term speculation for quick profit or for long term accumulation to combat the fall of the dollar or whatever currency you hold.   America is not the only country with an overvalued currency.  Whichever approach you choose, if you apply these value principles,  your odds of increasing profit and avoiding serious loss improve.

Gary

Why Leverage Silver ETFs

 

Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less?

I first spotted an opportunity in 1986.   Two short term distortions (in the price of silver and the strength of the British pound) created potential for huge profits.  I wrote in a report (called the “Silver Dip”) that told how to borrow British pounds to speculate in silver and earn over $50,000 profit.  That’s the headline I used then in 1986, “Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less”.

The report showed how to take borrow overpriced British pounds and invest the loan in under priced silver.   $250 was required to set up the loan.  No other cash was needed to borrow the pounds.

Readers who followed the report made $46,299 on the no cash investment in only one year

Then in 2015 I spotted the same distortion again.  The British pound was overvalued.  Silver was undervalued. 

I quickly issued a report… the “Silver Dip 2015” that looked at how similar conditions to 1986 had fallen into place.  The price of silver had reached a six year low.  The British pound strength was rising.  The dollar per pound rate was $1.55 per pound, exactly the same as in 1986 and the silver/gold ratio rose over 80 just as in 1986.

That report revealed the iShares Silver Trust, a silver ETF  and during the year after issuing this report, the share price rose from $13.57 per share to $19.60 in 2015.

The rise in the silver price created a nice profit.   The currency and leverage tactics within the strategy turned the nice profit into a very nice profit.

A $10,000 (6,451 British pounds) loan purchased 736 shares at $13.57.  In 2015 the shares rose to $19.60 and were worth $14,425 (up 44.25%).

Those profits were spectacular by any stretch of the imagination but turned out even better because the profits above excluded the forex profit.

In 2015-2016 , the British pound dropped almost exactly as it did 30 years ago!  The British pound fell from $1.55 per pound to $1.33 per pound.

At $1.33 per pound, the 6,451 pound loan only required $8,575 to pay back the loan.  This created an extra $1,425 forex profit.

When the opportunity appeared again last year, I updated the report to  “Silver Dip 2018”.

The 2018 report showed how the opportunity for this speculation was even better than it was in 2015.

Yet the profits have not yet arrived.  This allows me to make an amazing no-risk guaranteed offer to you.

Silver Dip 2019 includes profit calculations for 2019 and I offer you the report “Silver Dip 2019” with a year long guarantee.

“If the profits recommended in the report don’t arrive by the end of the year, I’ll give you a complete and full refund”.

That’s right if the tactic described in Silver Dip 2019 do not hit their target, you don’t have to pay a thing for the report.

Investing in silver ETFs leveraged with margin loans may create extraordinary profits in 2019.

The “Silver Dip 2019”  shows how to easily make an ideal speculation for almost any amount.   The report shows when and how to get margin loans in dollars, British pound, Japanese yen or euro.

In fact you learn how to borrow in 23 different currencies, even Russian rubles, so you can choose the weakest currency with the lowest interest rates.

Low Interest Loans

Interest on the loan won’t eat up profits.  The “Silver Dip 2019” shows how to borrow many currencies right now for less than 2%.

The Silver Dip is only exercised when conditions are absolutely ideal.  Value investors never push this rule.  Investment and speculative markets are full of rumor, conjecture (a lot of it false) and hidden agendas.  The Silver Dip relies instead on a really simple theory… that the price of gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s price should maintain a parity with gold.  When that parity is out of balance (as it has been since August 2018) silver’s price is ready to explode.

The “Silver Dip 2019” explains how to speculate in silver ETFs plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in silver if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment:  who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons why conditions are excellent for better for a Silver Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2019” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2019” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in silver.

Learn how to beware of certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how silver profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of silver’s price with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine its real value.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of silver to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2018  $39.95

The benefit of 50 years experience in watching markets, metals, bonds, interest rates and currencies, I have learned many special pricing situations to watch for.

These special opportunities do not appear every day.  That’s why they are special.

Unless you have seen them come and go, it’s hard to see them coming again.

That is why I was willing to wait for years for silver to be in a special pricing position.

Our courses and reports are about finding good value and they have been helping astute readers find value investments, again and again for 50 years.

The “Silver Dip 2019” report shows a current huge opportunity.  I continuously watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.   Sometimes a rare quirk, such as the currency distortions, low cost loans and low silver price  offer potential for profit, with very little risk of long term loss.

Investors who speculate on these aberrations at the correct time can make fortunes.

The time is now.

Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

We are stalking precious metal opportunity now.

The trap is set. We are waiting…

This opportunity is explained in the report “Silver Dip 2019”.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Here is why there is no risk for you.  The report is 100% guaranteed.

I do not sell book, reports and courses.  I offer benefits.  If  the Silver Dip 2019 does not bring you the benefits you expect, just let me know any time in 2019 and I’ll send you a quick, no questions asked, full refund.

I can’t promise that silver’s price will rise in 2019 but  I can guarantee you’ll be fully satisfied with the report or… you can have your money back in full.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Gary

Three Investing Tips


Protect Your Wealth From Mistakes

Here are three steps to multi currency profits.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make you smarter than the smartest man in the world.

sir issac newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market.  His comment was “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence in seeking value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why two of the three exports I use in my Purposeful investing course (Pi) and mathematicians not economists.  I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline in our Pi course.

Use math, not emotion to protect your wealth.

There are time tested mathematical systems that can help you know when to take profits that maximizes gains and minimizes loss.

These systems help you seek value but also create disciplined exit strategies because one of the toughest decisions most of us have is to know when to sell a rising or falling share.

Human nature makes it harder to let winners run, than to cut loses.

Let’s look at a real time example of how purposeful investing strategies can increase profit.  In this real example, in 2002 Merri and I invested in Jyske Bank shares.  We were visiting the bank with a group of readers.  We had been in Copenhagen for several days and took the group out to the bank’s headquarters in the small charming village of Silkeborg.  We visited the CEO (who has been a friend for many years) in his new modest offices, saw the bank’s new currency trading room and visited with the Jyske Invest Fund Managers.  What impressed us was the conservative and balanced thinking throughout the bank.  There were no staff limos or corporate jets.  The CEO’s office was small with walls of glass so staff could see him at work.  The bank worked for and talked about the long term view.

TFC Corp

Jyske Bank share price since September 2002.

We invested in Jyske shares at DKK96.50 on 2nd September 2002. We sold half in April 2006 at DKK352.50.  The share price of the remaining shares we hold have never dropped below our purchase price.  Today the share price is over DKK300 again.

Could I have done better with a mathematical system?  I asked Dr. Richard Smith, CEO of Tradestops.com,  who has a PhD in mathematics and is one of the experts we use in our system, to see how his trailing stops strategy would have increased my profit.

It turns out I could have done better.  Much better.   Here is the chart of the trailing stops that his strategy would have given me had I been using it.

magci calculator

Click on image to enlarge.

Let’s look at three scenarios to show the difference in profit between using simple buy and hold with no stops, my system of taking back the original investment and the Trailing Stops strategy.  For simplicity sake, I am not including dollar to Danish kroner fluctuations.  The forex fluctuations would make a difference if calculated in US dollars performance but we’ll analyze that element of the invest in another message.

Scenario #1: DKK100,000 becomes worth DKK350,158.  Profit is DKK241,880 in 15 years.  In this scenario we assume a DKK100,000 investment.  The investment is at DKK96.50 so 1036 shares were purchased.  The assumption in this scenario is that all the shares have been held.  The price of today’s quote (April 23, 2015) is DKK330.  The value is DKK341,880 on DKK100,000 invested.

Scenario #2: DKK100,000 becomes worth DKK357,679. Profit is DKK247,840 in 15 years.  Assume again, DKK100,000 investment.  1036 shares were purchased at DKK96.50.  In this scenario, (what I actually did), 285 shares when the price reached DKK352.50.  This returned my original investment appx. DKK100,000.  The remaining 751 shares at 330 (4/22/2015 price) are still held so are worth DKK 247,840.  This represents a total profit of  247,840.  This is a little better than keeping all the shares,  except the shares sold in 2006 created new opportunity potential for nine years so this scenario is actually much better than the numbers appear.

Scenario #3: DKK 100,000 becomes worth DKK1,156,069.  Profit is DKK1,056,069 in 15 years.  As in the other two scenarios there was a DKK100,000 investment.  1036 shares were purchased at DKK96.50.

Dr. Smith, backtracked to and see what the system would have done would with this share.

Richard sent the exact dates with buy and sell numbers:

Exit @ 325.50 on 6/13/2006.  All the shares are sold bringing in DKK337,218.

Buy @ 321.98 on 10/9/2006.  The DKK337,218 buys 1047 shares.

Exit @ 404 on 6/8/2007.   This sale grosses DKK422,988

Buy @ 118.5 on 3/20/2009.  The DKK422,988 buys 3,569 shares

Exit @ 170 on 8/10/2011. This sale grosses DKK606,730

Buy @ 173.40 on 2/1/2012.  The DKK606,730 buys 3,499 shares

Still in @ 330.4 on 4/22/2015. The share value at this time is DKK1,156,069.

Wow, what a difference if one followed and used the trailing stops.  The trailing stops and re buy signals increase the investment by 11 times versus 3.5 times in the other scenario.

The Jyske shares have a volatility quotient at this time of 15.5% so would create a sell signal at around DKK287 at this time.

These scenarios are based on approximations and do not include trading costs, management fees, etc. so the real money in the bank would not be exactly this amount.  For our analytical purposes this study suggests that trailing stops help us protect the successes we gain in spurts.

This type of math creates great discipline so you know not to sell too soon and give away profit but, also know not to hold too long and give away returns already made.

Yet using trailing stops only works when you have good shares to begin.

To easily spot good value, we use Keppler Asset Management  as our first source of data.  We follow the analysis of our friend, Michael Keppler.

Michael Keppler is an expert on stock market value and I have worked with him for nearly 30 years because the best way to create long term multi currency investment profits is to get good value in the shares you buy.

Michael continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each major stock market’s history.  From this he develops his Good Value Major Stock Market Strategy, an analysis that is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short ups and downs.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Keppler.  In my opinion, Michael is one of the best market statisticians in the world.

Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds. In January, his company, Keppler Asset Management, was, for the third consecutive year, named Best Fund Company in the Fund Specialists’ category by Capital, a leading German business magazine.  Keppler’s firm was one of only six out of 100 companies tested that received the highest five-star rating based on an independent evaluation of fund quality, management, and customer service by Feri Rating & Research and Steria Mummert Consulting.

Yet you have not heard about Keppler nor can you hire his services because he only serves mutual funds and institutional investors for investors in Europe.

This is why I want to introduce you to our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) with this special offer.

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the he clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The course examines and regularly reports on the hows and whys of seven professionally managed portfolios so we can learn how managers find and invest in good value.  The Pifolios are:

  • Keppler Good Value Developed and Emerging Market Pifolios
  • State Street Global Advantage Emerging & Developed Market Pifolios
  • Gold & Silver Dip Pifolio
  • ENR Advisory Extra Pifolio
  • Tradestops.com Trailing Stops Pifiolio

tradestops

As you can see in this image (click to enlarge) the top performing Pifolio we are tracking is the State Street Global Advantage Pifolio was up 43.15%.  Here is the breakdown of that current Pifolio.

pifolio

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

State Street is one of the largest fund managers in the world and their Global Advantage funds invest in good value shares in good value markets.

In the updates we review each portfolio, what has been purchased and sold, why, the ramifications for high risk, medium risk and low risk investors.

At the beginning of 2018 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

This portfolio has outperformed the US market (S&P 500) in 2017 as the chart below shows.

My portfolio blue.  S&P 500… green.

Screen Shot 2018-06-04 at 7.39.15 AM

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2017” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2018” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

Multi Currency Miracle – 41% Gain in 6 Months With Yen


See a multi currency miracle… how readers gained over 40% in just six months by borrowing Japanese yen to invest in the Dow.

Our business has been looking for breakouts over the last 45 years.

We continually look for breakouts because economic breakouts create fortunes.

Merri and I have been able to help readers have better lives, less stress and to make fortunes during these last 17 economically depressed years.  Yet the simple fact is that the really big profits come at the start of a breakout.

We can see the power of breakouts from the last BIG ONE in 1979.   Warren Buffet saw it coming. He mentioned it in a famous 1979 Forbes article “You Pay a Very High Price in the Stock Market for a Cheery Consensus”.

Everything looked bleak.

The 1980s recession, the worst since the Great Depression, was about to begin.   Yet in 1979 Buffet said…. BUY NOW.   On August 13, 1982 the biggest global bull stock market in history began.

The Dow’s 1982 to 1999, relentless 17 year climb is just one breakout we can see.

dow-stock-chart

Click to enlarge.

1979 was the darkest hour.  The herd was thinking negatively.   The reality?  A boom was on!   Then in 1999 another economic contraction began and has been with us till now… 14 years.   The cycle is repeating.  This is the beginning of an even bigger boom.

“Its not what’s happening that counts. It’s what you do with it.”

One tactic we always review is our Borrow Low Deposit High Multi currency expectations.  This  strategy always contains two profitable breakouts… one in forex rates and one in positive carry.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as WHICH CURRENCIES to invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s… and we have worked with Jyske Bank…. one of the largest currency traders in the world  for over 25 years.  Beginning in October we are combining Jyske’s expertise with that of ENR Asset Management a Canadian investment management company that has created a program so Americans so they gain multi currency investments as well as Canadian and Danish banking safety.

Learn how to gain currency diversification and how to leverage returns with low cost multi currency loans.  

Here is an example of what this means.

We updated our December 2012 borrow Japanese yen signal at our 2013 start of the year seminar.

In the next six months the US dollar rose over 13% against the yen.

finance.yahoo  chart

Yen dollar chart at www.finance.yahoo.com

Readers who followed this call picked up a 13% forex profit plus their positive carry.

The positive carry is the return on the invested loan.  Here is when borrowed yen were invested into a Dow Jones Industrial ETF for this six month period.

yahoo finance chart

Click on charts to enlarge

On December 12, 2012 one USA dollar would buy 82 yen.

Here are the invest loan interest rates from Jyske Bank in affect in January 2013.

JGAM Loan Rates

In this example $100,000 is invested and used as collateral to borrow $100,000 worth of Japanese yen at 2.50%.   The rate was 82 yen per dollar so to get $100,000 8,200,000 yen was borrowed.

The $200,000 was invested in a Dow Jones Industrial ETF… a mutual fund traded on the New York Stock exchange.

The ETF rose, along with the Dow, 12.85%

The Dow as shown in this chart rose over 12% from January to July 2013.http://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/9225962354/

www.finance.yahoo chart

The loan cost per year is $2,500 (2.5% on $100,000).    The $200,000 portfolio rose 25,700 (12.85% of $200,000).  In other words the $100,000 originally invested grew $23,200 in six months.

That is the positive carry without the forex profit.  Plus there is a forex gain as well.

By July a dollar would buy 100 yen!

To pay off the 8,200,000 loan would have cost $82,000 at the rate of 100 yen per dollar adding another $18,000 of profit.
The portfolio is worth $223,200 less $82,000 loan payoff or $141,200. That translates into a total six month profit of 41.2%.
This return is diminished by one time, upfront loan set up costs of about $1,000, plus any trading and forex fees but the six month return in this frozen moment of time would remain around 40%.
There is still potential in this position though risk have increased.   A shift from 82 yen per dollar to 117 yen per dollar is a 35% yen drop.
That is the upside.  For a loss of the same magnitude the yen would have to rise from 82 yen per dollar to 53 yen per dollar… a highly unlikely event. However at the course you’ll learn how to calculate profit and loss potential and why you should never leverage more than you can afford to lose.
The figures above are used for illustration purposes only. These are not recommendations as recommendation portfolios would be far more diversified and values change with market and currency shifts.
The Multi Currency Sandwich is not a fast trading tactic.  Normally positions are looked at with a five year view and we have tracked this powerful long term strategy for more than 20 years.

 

A very positive evolution has now taken place.  JGAM announced the transfer of that management role to ENR Management in Montreal, Canada as of September 13, 2013.

 

Here is why I am delighted to see this new service.

 

First, before I explain why Americans gain seven benefits from this change, let me hasten to say that all managed assets will remain at Jyske Bank in Denmark… as the custodian.

 

Yet the transfer of the management role to Montreal brings these seven positive benefits.

 

Benefit #1:  Assets are now managed and regulated not only through the Securities Exchange Commission, but through two of the world’s safest banking communities in the world, Canada and Denmark.

 

Here are the Top Seven Safest countries to bank in based on the World Economic Forum’s Global ranking index.

 

World’s Soundest Bank System Rating:

 

1.    Canada
2.    Sweden
3.    Luxembourg
4.    Australia
5.    Denmark
6.     Netherlands
7.     Belgium

 

Benefit #2: Advisory clients will be able to have more control and input in their accounts and choose a larger variety of investments.

 

JGAM as a Danish company had to follow US and Danish securities regulations which inhibited the ability of JGAM to allow clients to select individual shares.  This rule will not inhibit as many investors when assets are managed from Canada.

 

Benefit #3: Minimum balances will be lower. I understand that the new minimum will be $100,000 compared to the previous minimum of $200,000.

 

Benefit #4: Fees on smaller accounts will be lower.  JGAM’s fee on smaller accounts was 2%. ENR will charge 1.5%

 

Benefit #5: The managers will be physically closer.   No matter where one lives in the USA,  Montreal is closer than Copenhagen.  Those of us on the U.S. East coast will get to visit our investment mangers without jet lag.

 

Benefit #6: Montreal is my favorite North American city. Though Copenhagen is one of my favorite European cities,  Montreal is also great… North American efficiency with European style.

 

Screen shot 2013-06-06 at 3.55.21 PM

 

Montreal skyline.

 

Benefit #7:  Great people to deal with.  Thomas Fischer will join ENR so we get to continue working with him. We get the added benefit of Eric Roseman.  I have known Eric, the head of ENR, even longer than we have worked with Jyske.   Eric is the perfect example of a student who raced ahead of his teacher.   Eric gained some of his first inspirations to be a multi currency investment manager as one of my readers in the 1980s.   He wrote to me: “You are like my Jedi Master and I’m the apprentice. Learned so much about investing from you when I first got started.

 

His investment management skills as an investment manager have evolved far beyond mine so I will be very pleased to have him help manage my multi currency retirement account with ENR.

 

Thomas Fischer will be on the ENR investment committee and available to talk with clients.

 

For more information contact Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

 

See ENR Management’s website at www.enrassetmanagement.com

 

Non US clients will continue dealing direct to Copenhagen with Jyske Bank Private Bank as always. Non US investors contact Henrik Bøllingtoft Henrik.boellingtoft@jbpb.dk

 

Wherever you live do not trust any one bank, any one country, any one currency.  A financially sound retirement depends on banking in safe countries and holding strong currencies.

 

Gary

 

How to Gain With Multi Currency Value Investments

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pursue Your Dreams In a Funky Micro Business


When you are on a correct path, it is never too late to pursue your dreams in your own micro business.  See below how to use music and light to be smarter in life, business and investing.

An August 23, 2011 New York Times article by Ruth La Ferla entitled “At 90, Fashion’s Latest Pop Star” tells the story of Iris Apfel who finally became a star at age 90.

Fwd: iris-apfel

Photo by Chester Higgins Jr. from The New York Times article.

The article:  HER spectacles, as round as soup tureens, lend Iris Apfel a startled look. If she seems surprised, she has good reason. Mrs. Apfel, the subject of a string of museum exhibitions, a coffee table book and even a fashion advertising campaign, has long been a magnet to aficionados, those devotees of fashion who dote on her style — a more-is-more mix of haute couture and hippie trimmings that appears at a glance to have been blended in a Cuisinart.
But now, at 90, she seems baffled, and clearly tickled, to find herself on the cusp of pop stardom, an unlikely celebrity whose fame has been constructed almost entirely around her look. “I’m a geriatric starlet, my dear, don’t you know,” she said the other day. Relaxing in her Park Avenue apartment, a visual feast of cabbage rose patterns, paisleys and brocades, she added, “All of a sudden, I’m hot; I’m cool; I have a ‘fan base.’ ”

How do we determine or find that correct path?   Judging by the number of questions I receive on “Where do I start?”  this question stumps a lot of  readers. 
Whether you are 20 or 90, there are many ways to create a joyful lifestyle… that pays its way…  using the intelligence beyond logic that we all have. 

One simple way to start is to get in tune with nature.

universal-frequency

For example nothing in the business books will tell you to face east and to try to be at work during the sunrise.  Yet when you do… the types of ideas you need specifically for your success… are most likely to arise.

For example here’s my office view as the sun rises in North Carolina about this time of year.

Many years ago Merri and I lived for a winter with a Taita Yatchak and his apprentices. We lived as they did, without electricity, hot water or even a roof over our heads at night. We took all the shamanic lessons as they came… and one lesson we were taught was how to attract abundance.  The Yatchak used to say visualize Golden Orange… the color of abundance.

Vedic traditions also always face the office towards the east.

Sunrise at our Florida home…

shaman-frequency

and the sunset filling our house with golden orange… frequencies of wealth… evenings and morn.

universal-frequency

Here is the view I see as I type away in our Cotacachi, Ecuador penthouse around 6 in the morn.

universal-frequency

There are message in these frequencies that we cannot easily explain through language… but what science has shown is that frequency, especially in the range we call “light” has an enormous impact on the pineal gland… which is composed of cells similar to the retina.

Looking at this in a Western scientific way we can see how frequency has an impact on our endocrine system.

One way to view everything in the universe is as a bundle of frequency.  All matter and energy differ only by the numbers of frequencies involved.  Thus everything in and out of our body impacts everything else… in major or minor ways based on tone, beat, rhythm, volume, frequency.

Take for example, the human body when it hears a lullaby at around 60 decibels and the body relaxes and shifts into a healthier state from these subtle frequency energies.

Someone who hears the same lullaby at 180 decibels goes deaf instantly and that is the least of it. The force of the sound waves would liquefy the bowels, and the listener dies in a puddle of diarrhea.

Frequencies we call light are so important to our actions because they indirectly impact the pituitary gland, often called the master gland which directs the actions of the endocrine system. Light’s circuitous route is via the hypothalamus which in turn gets its instructions from the pineal gland.

Light and the pineal are really important because the pineal gland is located in the brain between the two hemispheres. Unlike much of the rest of the mammalian brain, the pineal gland is not isolated from the body by the blood-brain barrier system but has a profuse blood flow, second only to the kidney. So the pineal’s activity affects blood and brain chemistry simultaneously.

The pineal gland is composed of cells similar to those of the retina called pinealocytes and cells of the nervous system called glial cells. The pineal gland connects the endocrine system with the nervous system in that it converts light to nerve signals from the sympathetic system of the peripheral nervous system into hormone signals.

Outside frequency… at ranges we call “sound” and/or “light” or “electro magnetic force” also entrain the hypothalamus, pituitary, and pineal glands.  The conductor of the endocrine system is our own inner intelligence (a bundle of frequencies) influenced by the outer universal intelligence (a bigger bundle of frequencies).

The endrocrine system is viewed as the biochemical key to health in the same way that the nervous system is the key to the electro. In reality, the functions of these two systems are so interrelated that they can essentially be referred to as one system: the neuroendocrine system and all electrical and chemical activity can be viewed as frequencies.

Frequencies (in ranges called sound, light or electro magnetic) simultaneously impact the nervous and endocrine system.  This creates lightening quick electrical impulses that the endocrine system quickly communicates with neurochemical hormones.

Both forms of communication can control and coordinate millions of functions in the body every second.

The manufacture of hormones by the endocrine system allows it to regulate the metabolic function of every system, organ, tissue, and cell in the body. Essentially, these hormones are chemical messengers that allow the intelligence of the body to create a balanced internal environment.

Ancient healers recognized that different glands and organs responded to different frequencies.

For example the pineal gland is activated by the highest pitch (light) than the pituitary and thyroid gland. The thymus gland, centrally located at the heart of the endocrine system, is in the midrange, while the pancreas, adrenal glands, the sex glands are activated by the lower ranges.

Cultures have recognized the importance of these ranges in music  for many centuries.   You will find high pitch plain chant music that masters developed to awaken spirituality and our connection with the higher levels of the universe.  Here is a sample of spiritual music.

But the wise people also recognized that low pitched, heavy beat music like the Sexual Earthquake in Kobe could be used to manipulate and excite the more physical aspects of our nature.

In short the endocrine system corresponds to differently to certain tonal and light frequencies. Specific musical tones… specific colors… strengthen the endocrine system and also lead to specific ranges of influence within the body created by powerful hormones that circulate the bloodstream. Much of the power and energy generated by the human body is created in the endocrine system as it transforms the inner with universal subtle energy fields.

The ancients recognized that one avenue available to humans, to activate the wiser… less limited brain waves was through the third eye (pineal gland).  It is attributed to initiating psychic powers and perceiving higher dimensions. The ancients learned that a greater field of intelligence could be unlocked when the pituitary and pineal are entrained to vibrate in unison and learned to achieve this through meditation, chanting and sungazing.

When a correct relationship is established between the personality, operating through the pituitary, and universal frequencies, operating through the pineal, a magnetic field is created. The pineal can generate its own magnetic field because it contains magnetite. This field can interact with the earth’s magnetic field. The solar wind at dawn, charging the earth’s magnetic field, stimulates the pineal gland. This is why the period between 4 and 6 am is the best time to meditate and why sunrise is the best time to sungaze. At these times, the pineal stimulates the pituitary to secrete the Human Growth Hormone. This is why watching the sun rise not only makes you more intuitive but will also enhance muscle growth, skin tone, rapid nail and hair growth, restoration of hair color and general rejuvenation.

At dawn, the negatively charged pineal and the positively charged pituitary combine their essences to create a “light in the head” while meditating. This light has been seen by mystics, initiates, prophets and shamans throughout the ages. They refer to it as the Experience of God or of a universal intelligence.

The Western scientific mind set does not focus on enhancing ourseleves in this way… though Dr. Lozanov and the Eastern bloc did. The West has used the tyranny of reason to block access to greater intuitive intelligence.

We often have to go beyond the Western educational system to shift our consciousness and lifestyle to actively exercise our full human potential and understand the path that is best for us.  One way to step beyond any social mindsets that are desined to lock us into a routine or rat race is to start our day with meditation, 60 cycle music and a sunrise.

Native and Aboriginal people have known this intuitively for thousands of years: Sound and light are very powerful. As the expression of number in space, geometry is inextricably linked to sight and sound.

Sixty cycle music and the sunrise have the power to open our pineal.  Combined they can bring you the intentions of freedom and deep harmony allowing the energy of action while erasing the lethargy of doubt.

Gary

Learn how to use meditation and sixty cycle music in business and investing.  Join us in North Carolina for our October 7-8-9 Quantum Wealth Through International Business & Investing.

We have been incorporating the ideas of using frequency for Quantum Health and Quantum Wealth into our courses and seminars for decades… but our  October 7-8-9 2011 devotes an entire workshop to this portion of the course.

These golden colors make me think of a golden rule of investing is that there is always some fact we do not know.

The uncertainty principle that is a core component of our universe… means we cannot be certain of any investment… any factany future. I guess this means we cannot even be certain of uncertainty, but I highly recommend that you expect it in forms we cannot even imagine… volcanoes shutting down the system. Greece going broke… maybe Spain, Portugal, Italy and even the USA as well.   Then expect something else unexpected to take place will have an impact… good or bad on your  savings, job, business, savings wealth and investments.

These unknowns can work in our favor!   Realize that there are millions of ways that good fortune can become bestowed up you.

Merri and I believe in uncertainty and respect the limits of logic so we use many tactics to think, act, live, do business and invest beyond logic.

First, we put our relation with our Faith, our family and our health ahead of money. Without these foundations it is hard to be grounded… to resist greed and fear and to put emphasis on service, sustainability and fulfillment ahead of cash.

Second, we make sure our main investment is on our own business. Investments in shares or bonds and such are backup.  They rely on a social contract that has been ripped to shreds by massive debt globally. This means that all investments are at risk in ways we cannot know.

In our own business we can do something about the product or service we provide.  We still cannot be certain in business… but in business we can be more certain than in investments where we are not involved.

Third, we invest in what we know…. as often as possible with people we like and trust. Investments beyond business rely on a system, an idea and the people involved. The more you know about the people and the idea… the better.

Next we look for ways to tap the infinite wisdom that is within all people… to connect with that unbounded portion of our being that’s in the cosmic state. We all spring from this infinite source… we are of it.  Our logic just cannot compute infinity in symbolic form.  To try is like processing a terabyte of data with a 16K processor (even worse actually).

One way we do this is through Vedic Astrology. Learn more about Vedic Astrology at Blaine Watson’s seminar  September 23-24-25, 2011 Investing & Business Beyond Logic. See details here.

We have to find ways to get in touch with our greater intelligence and learn how to see, hear, feel, taste and smell tiny bits of data in ways that our dimwitted brains can use.

We live in an uncertain world. I cannot be totally certain but believe that risk and the unknown are almost guaranteed. However we spring from infinite wisdom and we can let this unbelievably smart stuff we are made of filter through.  We cannot think what pops up in words. We cannot force it to make sense… but we can use tactics like wealth beyond logic tactics Merri and I use to let our innate wisdom direct us so we enjoy 300% of life… health, wealth and fulfillment.

Gary

Read At 90, Fashion’s Latest Pop Star

Seven P Secrets of Self Publishing

When you write, you can work anywhere. 

gary-scott-image

Here I am working poolside in the winter, at our Florida farm.

gary scott

Here I am with our hound Ma, working during the summer at our North Carolina farm.

Learn how to earn everywhere, while living anywhere you choose.  I have been able to earn by writing in Hong Kong, England, the Isle of Man, Dominican Republic and Ecuador to name a few of the place I have lived.  Everywhere I have been… too numerous to share here, I have been able to work.

All I need is my laptop.

That’s all you need too… a laptop to be free!

Before computers, a pencil and pad did the job.

Freedom is just one benefit you can gain from writing.

Another benefit is income.   Writing has brought me both our farms, free and clear… plus a lot more.

Another good example of earning potential is my friend Hugh Howey.   He was working for $10 an hour in a book store when he self published his novel Wool, typing in a storage room during his lunch breaks.

Soon he was earning over $100,000 a month on Amazon.com.  This helped secure a six-figure book deal from Simon & Schuster, and an option for film by Ridley Scott, director of Blade Runner and Alien.

That’s what he’s doing now.

Hugh Howey

Sometimes Hugh and I get together at my  farm and play chess (he beats me badly).

Writers like High are great inspirations.

A couple of years ago Hugh  left Florida, and moved to South Africa.  He had a sailing catamaran built for him and now can sail the world while he continues to write.

Hugh explained it like this: And that’s the miracle of working as a writer: I can do it from anywhere and everywhere. The past few years, I’ve done a lot of writing from airplanes and airports while on business trips abroad.  SAND was entirely written overseas while traveling through seven different countries; I think it’s a better story because of those inspirations.  In upcoming years, I may be writing near your home port.

Hugh’s a super star writer and his success could not happen to a more deserving and talented person.  He pours enormous energy into being worthy of his readership.  But you do not have to be a million dollar a year earner or a traveler to benefit from writing.

The good news is… you do not need a huge success to have a rich and fulfilled lifestyle.  Self Publishing can bring you a life that most people only dream of, as a journeyman writer, instead of a super star.

May I hastily add that the path to stardom begins as a journeyman… so the journeyman’s path brings success without stardom… but can also lead to stardom.

What most success stories like Hugh’s rarely explain is the many hours of writing that was devoted before their self published book sales soared.   Hugh, like most writers were journeymen first.  Stardom came later.

Here are sevens secrets that can help you become a journeyman writer. 

The secrets are a writer’s armory of tools that allows almost anyone to create successful publications for income, freedom and fulfillment.

Take Merri’s and my publishing business as an example.  

Merri and I are not writing stars.  We are journeymen who have for more than 40 years, year in and year out, earned solid income writing and self publishing dozens of publications about multiple subjects.

Some years that income has been more than solid… over a million dollars.  Yet in terms of stardom, we are hardly known.

In a moment you’ll see why that’s fine for us and probably will be for you too.

First some history.

Merri became involved in self publishing over 40 years ago… first helping a veterinarian publish a book on a very specific market… animal acupuncture. Then she showed a needle point artist how to sell more books to an even more specific audience… “needle point enthusiasts”  about her needle point work to an audience larger than the population of the city she lived in.  This led Merri to eventually become Executive Editor of an award winning magazine in Florida.

My story allowed Merri and me to work and live from Hong Kong to London to Europe to Eastern Europe, then the Caribbean and then Ecuador… making millions in the process of following our adventures… having fun… while helping a large readership adapt to a rapidly changing world.

That’s what self publishing can bring, profit, adventure and fulfillment, a great feeling of worth and wonder.

Self Publishing has created exactly the lifestyle we desire allowing us to span the world and work with meaning and purpose.

Self Publishing has become a new business art form. 

The seven secrets can help you start your own self publishing business now.

Everything in publishing is new and exciting and changing.  Publishing is being recreated by the wonderful power of destructive technology.

Everything is new… except the seven secrets. 

Change in the publishing industry is disturbing many.   We love this evolution due to these seven secrets we call the 7Ps.  The 7 Ps are so fundamental to writing and publishing that new technology enhances rather than reduces their power.

The First P is Passion.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it AND create income with self publishing.  This can be your direct ticket to the kind of fulfillment you’ve always wanted.

Whether you want to travel the world or live as a recluse, work 12 hours a day or not work much at all,  you can set your schedule to succeed, if you’re willing to learn these seven secrets.

You can start part-time with any dream, passion, and budget.  Once you’ve created a product, you’ll enjoy the “multiple effect” of producing profits over and over again.

So the question is… What do you love to do?

What’s Your Passion:  An example is that thirty years ago, a client of Merri’s had a passion to help people who were in pain?  He published a series of pamphlets explaining various chiropractic disorders in very simple terms.  For example: “What Is Whiplash?”

The pamphlets contained solid information, but were simple 5″ x 7″ brochures with drawings and explanations. He sold them with a rack to chiropractors, who put them in their offices for patients to read.  These little self-published items sold year in and year out for decades.

There are thousands of ideas of this sort that can lead to big business.  It’s just a matter of defining and then acting on your passion.

Although I can work when I please and go where I wish, for me the most important reason for being a publisher is the satisfaction it brings. 

I love the projects I take on, so work doesn’t feel like, well… work.

What do you love?  If you love golf, then you can write and sell publications about golf.  Love travel, fishing, dogs, dolls, or art?  Write and sell publications in these fields.

Are you concerned about crime, war, poverty or environmental issues?  You can publish information products that help reduce these concerns.

Would you like to help the world be a more spiritual place?  Publish a newsletter, write a book (or hire someone to write it for you), record a tape… publish something that enlightens people.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it and earn income by publishing for ereaders, print on demand, CDs, lists, bound books, or any format you choose.

Be immersed in your passion and get paid well for it. 

This is why stardom is not the main goal for most writers and self publishers.  Extra income, more freedom and fulfillment are usually more than enough enough.

The seven Ps are:

#1: Passion

#2: Problem

#3: Person

#4: Profitably Priced Product

#5: Prospecting Pathway

#6: Promise

#7: Presentation

The first time I exposed others to the secrets in Self Publishing was in a weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.  We offered the camp for $1,500. 80 delegates enrolled.  People from all walks of life attended—chiropractors, businessmen, investors, doctors, realtors, inventors, airline pilots, engineers, and housewives.

Merri and I were so overwhelmed by the response, we decided to make it available to a larger audience.  We created a written course based on our current self publishing activity called “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.”  Then we recorded the weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.

Thousands have used the course as it has evolved over the decades.

You can receive both the written course and the recorded weekend seminar, in an MP3 file, in a special “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program I am making available to you.  The normal fee is $299 for the written course and $299 for the recorded workshop.   I’ll send you both the course and the recorded workshop and my course “International Business Made EZ (also $299) all for $299.  You save $598.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within 60 days for a full refund .

These courses are not theoretical.  They describe, step-by-step, how Merri and I built a million-dollar international business and how we are running this self publishing business right now.   We use the 7Ps today just as we did four decades ago to create a strong annual income.

This correspondence course is for those who would like their own international self publishing micro business for fun and profit. If you want fun, freedom, extra income and fulfillment with your own full or part time writing or want to build your existing business, by writing to sell you can profit from this course.  The course can help who want their own business or who want to have a business together or a family business.  This is the perfect course for those who can no longer find employment, who are looking for ways to earn abroad and who wish to retire and supplement their income.

Whether you are retired, an investor, chiropractor, doctor, dentist, professional or already own your own business, this offers another way to make money, to turn your passion into profit. We guarantee that we have shared all we know to help you start and run your own international business.  Enjoy and live a life of following your Passion to Profit… through writing.

Here is a special offer. 

We provide two emailed courses  “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell and be a Self Publisher” and “International Business Made EZ”.

We include the “Self Fulfilled Writing and Self Publishing Course” because there are two reasons to write, when you have something to say or when you have something to sell.  In this day and age many of us want to do both, make a statement that makes the world a better place and earn something extra in the process. 

Whatever your passion, however you do business, chances are you’ll be writing either to create a product or to sell a product. 

You save more than $598 because you also receive a recorded webinar conducted by our webmaster David Cross (at no extra cost).

David-cross-images tags:"2012-4-20"

David Cross

David has been our webmaster since our website began in the 1990s.  He is Merri’s and my business partner. We could not run our business as we do without him.

Learn the tactics we use in our web business that condenses 27 years of practical experience about search engine optimization, and writing for search engines.

For the last 27 years David has worked with companies large and small – IBM, Agora Publishing, AstraZeneca and many small business owners.  He has worked in 22 countries, and lived in six of them.

David’s clients span the globe and represent companies and charities both large and small.  From corporate giants to small, one-woman businesses and everything from finance, healthcare, publishing, technology, real estate, veterinarians, alternative health centers and everything in between.

David is an essential part of our web based business.

Myles Norin, CEO of Agora, Inc.  wrote:  “I have found David’s knowledge and experience unmatched in the industry.  Without David’s expertise and guidance for the past 7 years, we would not be nearly as successful as we are.”

As Senior Internet Consultant to Agora Inc. in Baltimore, MD, he worked closely with Agora’s publishers and marketers and – over a 7-year period – helped to propel Agora’s online revenues from around $20 million to well over $300 million.

David’s webinar will help you gain benefits in your micro business that large internet marketing companies use.  In this practical recorded workshop you will learn valuable skills to help your micro business.

There has never been a time when the opportunity for small businesses abroad has been so outstanding.  Expand your borders now!  Increase your economic security freedom, independence and success.

If you are not fully satisfied that this offers you enormous value simply email us for a full refund within 60 days.  You can keep all three courses as our thanks for giving our courses a try.

You also receive a report  “How to use Relaxed Concentration to Brainstorm Business Ideas” and a recorded workshop “How to Become and Remain Rich With Relaxed Concentration” at no additional cost.

Plus you get more in the program.

You receive regular writing and self publishing updates for a year.  Businesses usually need to evolve.  Merri and I continue to publish and have our independent businesses.  Some basics have remained for decades, but new strategies occur all the time throughout the year.  We’ll be sending along updates that share our most recent experiences as we learn and continue to grow our international micro business from Smalltown USA.

My special offer to you in this “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”, is that you receive:

  • “International Business Made EZ” course
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell” course
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3,
  • MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • Any updates to any of the courses, workshops, reports or recordings for a year.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within the first three months for a full refund . 

Order “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” and a quarter of update lessons $79.   Click Here.

Order “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” and a full year of update lessons $299.  Click Here.      

See success stories from Self Publishers and a few who have attended the “Writer’s Camp” that you will receive on MP3.

 

 

 

Surviving International Investing Shifts Part IV


International investing shifts are taking place at an increasingly fast pace.

As the world’s faster and faster pace is stimulated by the introduction and advancement of new technologies, we are swamped by many types of inflation that we will be looking at in a series ahead.

Take real estate as an example of how great opportunity is coming but in different ways.

2007 and 2008 saw a great global recession.  The buzz word among professional investors was “we cannot waste this recession”.  They saw this as a once in a lifetime opportunity… knowing that history shows… the markets always come back.

In 2009 these investors made a killing!  They still are as markets continue to rise.

Markets dropped shortly after the triple tragedy in Japan and unrest in the Middle East but then rallied.   The U.S. stock market is now higher than the earthquake in Japan.

Real estate due to its nature… was slower to fall and has been slower to return.  I believe there will be huge profits gained… but in different ways.

Unless the global population stops growing… the demand for real estate will catch up with the overhang and prices will once again rise.

However the way real estate is used… the features that will make real estate valuable will differ.  Those who invest in real estate the old way may get slaughtered.  Those who spot trends and adapt will become the new rich.

NG photo

This picture from the April 2011 issue of National Geographic and the excerpts from an  article in that issue entitled “Miracle Above Manhattan” provides a clue of how things will change.  This article explains how a derelict railway line that ran like a ribbon 25 feet above parts of Manhattan has been turned into a park.

Here is an excerpt from that article. Bolds are mine: Until recently the High Line was, in fact, an urban relic, and a crumbling one at that. Many of its neighbors, as well as New York’s mayor for much of the 1990s, Rudolph Giuliani, couldn’t wait to tear it down. His administration, aware that Chelsea was gentrifying into a neighborhood of galleries, restaurants, and loft living, felt the surviving portion of the High Line, which winds its way roughly a mile and a half from Gansevoort Street to 34th Street (a section farther south was torn down years ago), was an ugly deadweight. They were certain this remnant of a different kind of city had to be removed for the neighborhood to realize its full potential.

Never have public officials been so wrong. Almost a decade after the  Giuliani administration tried to tear the High Line down, it has been  turned into one of the most innovative and inviting public spaces in New York City and perhaps the entire country. The black steel columns that once supported abandoned train tracks now hold up an elevated park—part promenade, part town square, part botanical garden.

This will happen at an accelerated pace…  the old school officials… the establishment getting it wrong… the opportuity for new bold thinking growing.

Consider this. Most investors think US real estate in areas such as Florida are in trouble.  Some areas are badly depressed and will stay that way for years.  Yet  some parts of Florida and other sunshine states are very different and have great potential, with abundant water and great agricultural potential and offer extra opportunity as utilities shift.

Mt. Dora Photo

We have arranged for a free real estate tour of Mt. Dora and Lake County real estate for Friday April 8, 2011 for those attending Blaine Watson’s course on Vedic Astrology. This tour will be conducted by the real estate broker who helped us find our Lake County real estate.

If you have an interest, please drop me a note at gary@garyascott.com

See my latest international investments at our June 24-26 International Investing & Business Seminar in North Carolina.

Read Miracle Above Manhattan

Prosper from Change


Prosper from change by spotting trends.

mt hood See report written by survivors of Chernobyl radiation “7 steps to protect against radiation exposure

As the world’s faster and faster pace is stimulated by the introduction and advancement of new technologies, we are swamped by many types of inflation that we will be looking at in a series ahead.

* Money Inflation

* Choice Inflation

* Opportunity Inflation

* Information Inflation

* Natural Resource Inflation

* Energy Inflation

* Technology Inflation.

Each of these inflation forms creates its own problems AND opportunities.

Parts of Florida benefit from natural resource inflation as water become scarce.

Mt. Dora Photo

Lake Dora shot from Lakeside Inn pool.  Lake County, Florida has approximately 1,400 named lakes. Near our home is Sugarloaf Mountain, the highest point in peninsular Florida, at 312 feet (95 m) above sea level.

Florida’s problems create some extra special benefits. Take for example how Florida was impacted by money inflation (causing a real estate bubble) and how today it appears to suffer today from a resource inflation… too many homes, too few people.

Excerpts from a March 18, 2011 CNNmoney.com article entitled “Nearly 20% of Florida homes are vacant” shows why when it says: On Thursday, the Census Bureau revealed that 18% — or 1.6 million — of the Sunshine State’s homes are sitting vacant. That’s a rise of more than 63% over the past 10 years.

Having this amount of oversupply on the market will keep home prices depressed and slow any recovery.

The vacancy problem is more dire in Florida than in any other bubble market: In California, only 8% of units were vacant, while Nevada, the state with the nation’s highest foreclosure rate, had about 14% sitting empty. Arizona had a vacancy rate of about 16%.

In Florida, the worst-hit county is Collier — home of Naples — with a whopping 32% of homes empty.  In Sarasota County, 23% of the housing stock sits vacant, while Lee County (Cape Coral) has a 30% vacancy rate. And Miami-Dade County has a vacancy rate of about 12%.

The housing recovery will take years, perhaps many years, to complete, according to Ingo Winzer, a housing market analyst and founder of Local Market Monitor.

Still, the 2000s saw the state population grow overall by nearly 18%, the Census Bureau reported. I

“It will take about eight years just to put the vacancy numbers back into the single digits,” said DeKaser.

The inventory overhang has sent home prices plunging. The median price for homes sold in January was just $122,000, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. That was down 7% from 12 months earlier and less than half the price at the peak of the market.

Winzer thinks prices in Florida will drop even more, another 5% in 2011 and 3% in 2012. “Even after that, they’re not going to rebound, they’ll just sit on the bottom,” he said.

Celia Chen, a housing market analyst for Moody’s Analytics, is also downbeat in her forecasts for Florida. Not only will prices fall another 11%, she said, but the bottom won’t hit until mid-2012, about a year later than the nation as a whole. Some metro areas won’t get back to their pre-recession peaks until long after the present owners are old and gray.

Here is why this problem creates opportunity.

First, most people think of Florida. I see Florida as two places… South Florida and agricultural Florida.  Note all the counties above where the big vacancy numbers are shown are southern Florida states where retirement and second home residences were the big industries. These areas along the coast attracted much more speculation than agricultural Florida (where Merri and I invested in).  Real estate prices did not fall anywhere as much nor are vacancies anywhere as high.

Plus the economy here is based on global tourism (Disney et al in and around Orlando) and agriculture.

Despite the slowdown and high vacancy rates in some parts of Florida… excerpts from a recent USA Today article entitled: “Florida’s 70-year growth streak could not be broken despite a dramatic downturn in recent years” shows that there may be pockets of special opportunity.  The article says:  Most of Florida’s largest counties and cities grew more rapidly than the nation since 2000, according to 2010 Census data released Thursday.

“It’s a story of two different half-decades,” said Stanley Smith, director of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. “The first half was so great that it made up for any decline of the past few years.”

Despite record foreclosures and high unemployment, Florida still grew 17.6 percent to 18.8 million, well above the 9.7 percent national rate.

It’s a testament to the runaway growth the state enjoyed in the early 2000s, which slowed in 2007 and came to a screeching halt in 2008. Annual growth that had peaked at 2.3 percent in 2005 fell to 0.5 percent in 2009 and 0.7 percent in 2010.

Flagler County, north of Daytona Beach, was the fastest-growing county, up 92 percent to 95,696. Sumter County, home of The Villages retirement community in central Florida, grew 75 percent to 93,420, and Osceola County, just south of Orlando, grew 56 percent to 268,685.

Lake County, where we invested, is surrounded by these fastest growing counties and has several added advantages.

One advantage is Lake County’s agricultural economy. A March 21 USA Today article entitled “Economic expert sees trouble ahead; Housing market municipalities may be in for a rough ride” by Maria Bartiromo shows how agricultural land has already become increasingly profitable.  Here is an excerpt from this article: Meredith Whitney seems to be softening her concerns about a looming muni meltdown as politicians across the country address fiscal challenges more aggressively.  She says a new area of strength is emerging in one part of the country where debt was not an issue: the agricultural belt.

There are parts of the economy that are doing very well. As a food producer, the economy in the middle part of the country’s doing well.

The ag-rich states are going to be Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Texas to a certain extent because it is a massive beneficiary of the price of oil.  It’s the central part of the U.S., you can almost draw a triangle around it, what I call the emerging markets of the U.S. It speaks to how dynamic and strong the U.S. economy really is. It’s just shifting. The U.S. is a composite of many different economies.

Indeed and Florida is a composite of many different economies as well.

florida agriculture

Map from plant medicine program at University of Florida (linked below). This map shows Lake County’s economy enriched by citrus, plants, grapes and vegetables.

The citrus economy in central Florida has a special problem that may create even more opportunity.

Excerpts from a January 19, 2011 NPR.org article entitled “Abandoned Citrus Groves Produce Problems In Fla.” by Greg Allen show another reason why there is special opportunity now. Here is an excerpt: Florida is a national leader in orange and grapefruit production.

But in the past few years, landowners have given up on more than 100,000 acres of citrus groves, which have become a threat to producers of the state’s signature crop.

The abandoned groves are breeding grounds for pests and diseases.

Dying Citrus Groves

Indian River, on Florida’s Atlantic coast, is known for its world-class grapefruits, oranges and tangelos. This time of year, many trees are still heavy with fruit.  But there are also many groves that aren’t doing so well.

Citrus growers have always had to fight disease. But in recent years, here in Florida, it has seemed that disease is getting the upper hand. Most recently, two diseases — canker and citrus greening — have been very difficult to control, requiring more care and nearly constant spraying.

Those diseases helped push many producers out of citrus. But Christine Kelly-Begazo says there’s another compelling factor: falling land prices.

Post-Housing Boom

Kelly-Begazo is an agriculture extension agent with the University of Florida in Indian River County. She says during the housing boom, speculators paid top dollar for citrus groves.

“Now, if you bought acreage at that time speculating that you were going to be able to make some money off of agriculture or development  or whatever, and the development boom busted, there’s no incentive now,” she says. “And that acreage is actually costing you money now. So they’ve abandoned the groves, but they’re not building on them either.”

Citrus producers in Indian River have begun a program to bulldoze and burn trees in abandoned groves. But it’s costly and depends on the cooperation of sometimes absentee owners.

This is the latest of many challenges for an industry that has long grown one of Florida’s most lucrative crops.

Consider this. Most investors think Florida real estate is in trouble. It is… some of it.  Yet this broad paint brush thinking masks over the fact that ag rich areas have extra potential. Ag economies are growing rich and parts of Florida are very different… because they are mainly agricultural.  Some parts of Florida have abundant water… great agricultural potential and offer extra opportunity because developers who planned to shift ag land to residential property cannot now do so.

See how I followed this advice myself and how my income on oranges doubled in two years in the story of How to Add Goodness AND Make a Profit.

This is the type of property that Merri and I invested in and now another.potential demand is on its way… German buyers.  But that’s another story for another message. Until then, good investing.

Gary

Ecuador-beach-photos

See details about Ecuador real estate prices here.

Read Abandoned Citrus Groves Produce Problems In Fla.

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