Tag Archive | "international investing"

How to Gain With Dollar Cycles


You can  gain special opportunities by taking advantage of dollar cycles.

dollar chart

The article with this dollar chart at businessinsider.com (1) is worth checking out.  Click to enlarge.

The chart shows how the US dollar rises and falls in cycles, about six years up, then ten years down.  The most recent upwards cycle began in 2010. If the trend continues, dollar investors have three more years to use the rising dollar to pick up assets, stocks, bonds, real estate at a discount because the greenback is strong.

Gary

Turn Your Passion to Profit So You Never Run Out of Money

Earn everlasting wealth and fulfillment as you reduce stress.

First earn with online self publishing.   The three stories below show how Amazon.com and self publishing has enriched the lives of three others.

Online self publishing is creating a wealthy writer’s middle class.   Read the three stories of self publishing success below to learn a secret that new self publishers can use to make life rich.

In the past, a few writers made fortunes. The rest starved.  No more!  The old way of writing and publishing was great… if you like the lottery.   Not so good if you wanted an income for sure.

There are growing numbers of great stories about beginning writers using Kindle to sell their publications.  Here are three stories of how new self publishers have used Amazon.com to make their lives better as they earned more.

Let’s start with Nickolette Goff who is retired and loves, organic gardening,  healthy cooking and visiting Ecuador.   She had never published a book and after our self publishing course she wrote and promoted her first book… a Quinoa recipe cookbook with 13 recipes she garnered from her Ecuador trips.   She had 10,000 downloads of the book in five days and obtained dozens of good reviews!

You can get 13 more great quinoa recipes in Nicki Goff’s book at the links below.

quinoa-book

You can order Nicki’s first book at Amazon.com.

She wrote:  Hi, Gary,  Book sales are actually going well, and I’m having a lot of fun with this. I’m so grateful to you and Merri  for pushing me to get some action going!

The free promos really get things going, and seem to reignite sales.

Two more in the works – both on gardening topics.  Best wishes for 2013 to you and Merri.   Love, Nicki

Nicki’s husband recently wrote:  Nicki, her sister and two nieces are visiting Ecuador for 3 weeks in January –  Her Kindle books have paid for her trip so she loves that.

Nicki’s first book sells for .99 cents and is ranked #266,764 of paid sales in the Kindle Store.    Even being ranked in the 200,000 class, Nicki has earned enough to travel to Ecuador.

Take Bob Gandt as another example.

Bob Gandt

Bob Gandt has had great writing success and has been published by numerous major publishers.  Bob’s niche is flying, war and writing.  He published his first story at age sixteen – the same year he first soloed an airplane.  Since then he has logged something over 25,000 hours, written fourteen books and published countless articles. Hearing the stories of others like Bob help me (as well as you) better understand how many different ways there are to Write to Sell.

At age 20 he was at the time the youngest aviator in the U.S. Navy. In 1965 he began his 26 year career as a pilot for Pan American World Airways.   His 1995 book, Skygods, (Wm. Morrow & Co.), recounts the meteoric descent and crash of the once-great Pan Am. His 1997 book “Bogeys and Bandits” (Viking Penguin) told of a training squadron at the same base where he had trained years before.

This book led to a CBS series Pensacola: Wings Of Gold.   Bob was the writer and technical consultant for these twenty-two-episodes, which starred James Brolin as the commander of a Marine F/A-18 training squadron. Bob’s books were previously published by the big publishing houses, but now Bob’s focus is on self publishing.  As an author whose numerous books have been published for and sold through book stores, he sees the bookstore path filled with dinosaurs.

Bob started with print but took a special step that every writer should know.  This step has helped him add Ebooks to his stable of income producing systems.  Print and Ebooks are all part of the publishing process… but Ebooks make self publishing easier than ever before. Bob’s passion is flying and the military.  His books reflect this.

Learning and sharing your passion with like minded souls is just fun.  There is no other way to say it.  This is how life should be lived and self publishing lets you live it this way.

Yet despite an offer from a major publisher, Bob self published  his latest book at Amazon.com.  We helped introduce this book last April and it has reached #1o on the Military Thrillers best sellers list several times since! See Bob’s website here.

Another great story is about Hugh Howey, a writer that every self publisher should meet and hear.   Hugh had had just a little success with publishers, a book with modest success.

Hugh Howey

Hugh whipping me badly in a game of chess.

Hugh self published his book Wool.  Hugh was a bookstore clerk.  In his spare time he wrote science fiction and began self-publishing his work on Amazon.com in 2011.  Soon he was earning him over $100,000 a month on Amazon.  His books made the New York Times best seller list.  See Hugh Howey’s Amazon.com page here.

The formula that each of these writers has used is based around building a following for their books.  They wrote more than one book.  They sell their first book at a low price (free to .99 cents).  This compares to the typical $9.99 to $12.99 for books written by top branded authors on Kindle.

The low price starts building a readership.  In Hugh Howey’s case, he offered his first book free.  After the book became a best seller at Amazon.com, his other book sales, foreign rights, six figure print deal and film rights flowed naturally.

Nicki Goff and Bob Gandt are using this formula as well…  a  low priced first book attracts readers and builds a following for more…. higher priced, followup books.

This is one secret contained in our Self Publishing Course “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher”.  

Online self publishing allows you to lower price…  increase volume and cut out a publisher, distributor and book store who normally absorb up to 88% of the income created by a book.

You can start self publishing with no printing costs, no shelf space, no inventory, no postal delivery.  Most of the publishing expenses are eliminated.

The writer keeps 70%.

Amazon keeps 30%.

A typical writer earning 12% of the wholesale book sales makes about $.60 per $9.99 book sale.  A Kindle writer makes $2.10 on a $3 sale.

Costs are reduced as well.  Nicki Goff, Bob Gandt and Hugh Howey all write at home with no office or staff overheads.  This is how most self publishers start so all the income generated is profit.

This is a new exciting era for writers.

Smart self publishers can begin earning quickly with no obstacles between their publication and the reading public.   New technology provides self publishers with the following benefits:

* Printing, shipping and disposal (of unsold books) costs eliminated.

* Shelf space unlimited and almost free with no capital costs.

* Increased sales volume. Kindle owners buy more books than print readers and will spend weekly to get new chapters rather than entire books.

Get a great head start on earning income through the the evolving online self publishing process that we reveal in our course.

Technology favors self publishers today. Portable computers, the internet, wireless access, on demand printing smart phones and electronic readers all create enormous new, quick earning potential for self publishers.

If you take advantage of this offer there is a new added benefit.   You receive the basic “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher 101”,  “Self Publishing 202… How to Publish on Kindle” and our newest course “Self Publishing 303 – Tapping into the Amazon Evolution”.

The goal of “Self Publishing 303” is to help writers take advantage of a new trends at Amazon.com.   During the initial stages these new features offer the greatest potential.

Amazon.com publishing is evolving.  I have been studying, testing and publishing at Amazon.com and applying new technology offered by Amazon.com.  The  303 sessions share what I learned.

“Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher”  teaches our proprietary step-by-step plan for getting your publishing business going… full or part-time… right away.

You learn:

* How you can start earning quickly  with a very small amount of money even if you do not write full time.

* 11 steps to creating the perfect product, including how to review ideas, test focus, and aim at markets.

* How to gain 1,000% returns on some of your publications.

* How to choose a format—book, newsletter, list, audio or video—that suits you and your audience.

* Frequently committed marketing mistakes and how to avoid them (plus, you’ll get samples of winning marketing pieces to study).

My wife, Merri, and I became multi-millionaires in our own self-publishing business over 40+ years.  Today, we have more cars than we can drive, five homes and numerous cabins in North Carolina and Ecuador.  We have a beautiful lake front home on 16 acres (with an orange grove to boot).  We have no mortgages, not a penny of debt, and plenty of money in the bank.  More importantly even though we are well past retirement age, we can remain active,  love what we do… and make contributions to society that feel are meaningful.

Gain practical publishing ideas and case studies.

For example, you’ll learn about a pilot who published a book on the best airport cafés (suddenly all his flying became tax-deductible!)… how one couple who loved an island wrote a guide on the place and made enough money to buy a home on the beach there… and how another couple made millions with a simple legal idea.

What’s Your Passion: Travel and Tourism?

A client of ours amassed a fortune by starting travel guides for cities. He started with Sarasota, Florida, publishing a simple booklet with attractions, restaurants, etc. and plenty of advertising. Then he moved onto Naples, and on and on,until the whole state of Florida was done.

He didn’t have to put much work into the booklets as he could carry over plenty of generic information from booklet to booklet. But there were plenty of advertisers and plenty of people who wanted to obtain these booklets.

You learn:

* How to set up a computerized fulfillment center even if you’re computer illiterate.

* How to turn advertising dollars into a fortune by creating winning ads, direct mail pieces, and getting thousands of dollars in free publicity.

* How to use your computer and the internet to save hundreds of thousands of dollars in printing and postage.

* How to control inventory, check ad results, and keep overhead down.

* 11 financial hazards to avoid and tricks to stay profitable without a daily accountant.

* My secret pricing strategies that will help you sell more units of your product.

* How to define and target your internet market, and start getting visits

* How to develop your website

* The top 10 internet tips to use and the top 10 traps to avoid

“In Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher” Merri and I give away every publishing secret we know to write to sell for a solid income.

Why we’ll add the Self Published Kindle addition free.

Our self publishing course has been a mainstay for almost three decades but is updated regularly.  The course is based on the trial and error experiences Merri and I have had for the past 47 years… the very experiences that have made us self-fulfilled multimillionaires.  We are continually adapting our business as the industry evolves.  Our course helps readers evolve with us.

There is more because Merri’s and my story goes beyond self publishing.  We have also always earned with travel.

The second way to get ahead is by getting ahead.  Really.

bell shaped curve

The bell shaped curve affects all trends.  The 15.75% of businesses and investors that really get ahead are the early adopters.  They gain the largest rewards.

You can get ahead because a new trend is on its way.   This is an era of rapid disruptive change that hits even the giants.  In fact the bigger they are… the more vulnerable they become.  Amazon.com for example has turned huge industries upside down… and knocked booksellers, publishers and many retail businesses to their knees, but is Amazon.com the giant that will stumble next?

Our online course “Event – Full Business, How to Profit From an Events Business” teaches how to earn by conducting seminars and tours.

Self publishing at Amazon.com is evolving.   The idea of simply publishing and just waiting for royalties to roll in, is well along the bell shaped curve.  Amazon will be with us for some time…  but new technologies that can disrupt Amazon.com are already on their way.

What’s Next? – Huge Profits For the Early Adapter

Amazon.com will change.  The firm has incredible income but small profit.   Amazon.com is the 1,000 pound  gorilla when it comes to selling books.  For how long?  Just when everyone thinks they have the system figured out… a new disruption comes along.   Ask the guys at Borders or Barnes & Noble!   Wait… that’s right. I forgot.  Borders is gone.  Barnes & Noble’s retails sales have been decreasing for years.

Be a Micro Amazon.com.  A new trend is rising… small companies with Amazon.com like capabilities.   Early adopters have a chance to get ahead of this trend by mastering the 7Ps.

Our two online courses, “Self Fulfilled – How to Self Publish” and “Event – Full Business – How to Profit From an Events Business”, both teach how to use the 7Ps.  The two courses work together in a synergistic way so you can create a micro publishing seminar business as Merri and I have.

The 7 Ps are “For Certain” principles in this uncertain world.

The 7Ps are  Passion – Problem – Person – Product – Prospecting Path – Promise – Presentation and go beyond change.

Whatever disruption new technology brings, the 7Ps create opportunity because they identify, reach, engage, focus and solidify customers at a profit.

The Ps are really important to any writer, publisher or micro business because they transcend all forms of technology.  They are a constant in an ever changing world.

The 7Ps reflect an immutable logic that worked in paper based publishing before computers.  They worked with computerized Cheshire labels.  The 7Ps worked  with jet printing on envelopes and personalized emails.  They work for websites and blogs.  Our Writer’s Camp and Online Self Fulfilled delegates and Event Full subscribers are using the 7Ps successfully right now at Amazon.com and in numerous micro businesses.

Learn how to earn extra income by combining the 7Ps in an events business that is supported by self publishing and writing to sell.

gary scott events

Merri and I speaking to over 400 delegates in Quito, Ecuador

gary scott events

Merri and I speaking to a dozen delegates at our farm office in North Carolina.

Merri and I have been using the 7Ps for over 45 years.   Since May 1968 we have been paid to travel and live exactly where we have wanted to be… because we have known how to write to sell and monetize the publishing success with events, seminars, courses and tours.

The combination of self publishing working hand in hand with an events business has allowed us to visit and to live anywhere in the world we have desired.   Many of our courses delegates are using the 7Ps to enjoy great profits and lifestyle as well.

One reader sent me this note:

“Gary,  I participated in a Home Party last week and sold $253 worth of Ecuador goods that I brought back on my trip there last November.  That makes a total of approx. $450 in random sales so far which comes real close to paying for my airline ticket.  I still have a nice inventory, so will work on selling the rest.” 

This reader is using an events based business to generate income that pays for Ecuador travel.

Our online course “Event – Full Business” shows how to start small and gradually build a larger events business (if that is your desire) as we have done.

There are many fringe benefits to an events business. For example almost all of our global travel has been tax deductible for all these years.

The pay has certainly not been bad either.  One event earned  $142,260 in three days.  In another instance we earned over $135,000 in two days.  Once our earnings exceeded $200,000 in just three days.  More often we bring in $10,000 for a weekend’s work.

Yet the income has been a small part of this adventure.  The expanded horizons… the people we have met… the adventures we have shared… the tens of thousands of delegates we have enjoyed and hopefully helped…. the poor we have served… the freedom we have felt… to be able to go where we desire and come home, when we desire, with more than when we left.

Event Full Business- How to Have a Seminar and Tour Business.

We have conducted seminars or events or spoken at them in… (alphabetical order)  Australia, Austria, Bahamas, Belgium, Belize, Canada, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, England, Ecuador, Finland, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary (before the Iron Curtain came down), Indonesia, Isle of Man, Jamaica, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Nevis, Panama, Philippines, Puerto Rico, Scotland, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand and at one time or another most of the United States and even more.

There is a possibility that  Merri and I know more about conducting events than 99.9% of the people in the world.

We share what we know about events in our emailed correspondence course:  “Event – Full Business”.

Self publishing and events go hand in hand.  Writing to sell can build an events business and events can sell self published books, reports and courses.

Here are the initial lessons you receive.

#1: How to earn millions from seminars, courses and tours. See how we have earned as much as $200,000 for three days’ work. (Once $135,000 in two days.)

#2: How to build a seminar business. See the one day Washington-Atlanta-San Francisco system that helped our courses evolve and how to use this approach to help your teaching grow.

#3: When and when not to use other speakers. Seminars for speakers… a way to get it all out as your bank accounts gets it all in.

#4: How to use other speakers. Gain the key to the room and the people within. Why the golden pen is mightier than a glib tongue, the sword and the overloaded brain.

#5: Dealing with hotels/locations. Why the marketing does not talk to catering which will not communicate with accounting and the mess this could mean for you. How to choose… arrange and survive the hotel. Forget the $11,314 coffee bill… for swill.

#6: Scheduling seminars. Magic dates and times for marketing… how far in advance to market and seminar death dates to avoid.

#7: Creating a back end business. How Merri made $12,936 dollars at a seminar in 37 minutes by just standing still.

#8: Three types of courses… delegate driven… speaker driven… third party driven.

#9: The importance of strategic partnerships for added wealth.

#10: How to market seminars, courses & tours.

#11: How to build a List.

#12: Alternative seminar and course location options.

#13: The benefits of both big seminars and small courses.

#14: How to survive the dreaded problems: What to do when enrollments are low. Handling the heckler, the takeover and the cell phone. When the hotel fails. Surviving speaker no shows and all of those types of things!

#15: How to enhance your other businesses with seminars.

Event – Full Business – How to have a seminar and tour business sells for $349, but in this special offer you receive both fully guaranteed online courses “Event – Full Business” and “Self Fulfilled” for only $299 and save $349.

Self Fulfilled-How to be A Self Publisher.  There are growing numbers of great stories about beginning writers using Kindle to sell their publications.  You saw three above.

The course includes 11 steps to creating the perfect product, including how to review ideas, test focus, and aim at markets.

* How you can start with a very small amount of money and eventually work only four hours a day (if you are operating full-time).

* How to gain 1,000% returns on some of your publications.

* How to choose a format—book, newsletter, list, audio or video—that suits you and your audience.

* Frequently committed marketing mistakes and how to avoid them (plus, you’ll get samples of winning marketing pieces to study).

* How to set up a computerized fulfillment center even if you’re computer illiterate.

* How to turn advertising dollars into a fortune by creating winning ads, direct mail pieces, and getting thousands of dollars in free publicity.

* How to use your computer and the internet to save hundreds of thousands of dollars in printing and postage.

* How to control inventory, check ad results, and keep overhead down.

* 11 financial hazards to avoid and tricks to stay profitable without a daily accountant.

* My secret pricing strategies that will help you sell more units of your product.

* Plus much, much more that I don’t have space for here!

* How to use the internet to publish

* How to define and target your internet market, and start getting visits

* How to develop your website

* The top 10 internet tips to use and the top 10 traps to avoid

To help you start, I have created a special offer… our course on how to be a self publisher, our course on how to use the internet and a website in your business  and six bonuses for you.

Bonus #1: Get the 50 minute Video Workshop worth $99 “How to Start Your Own Internet Business” presented by our webmaster David Cross,

Bonus #2: Get FREE, the $299 online course “The Tangled Webs We Weave – How to Have an Internet Business”.  To read more  about this course click here.

Bonus #3: Our Super Thinking Workshop in an MP3 file so you can listen on your computer, burn a disk or listen on you Ipod or in your car. This workshop is a $199 value.

Bonus #4: A special report only available to those who enroll in “Self Fulfilled” entitled  “Three Secrets for Creating Publishing Ideas”.

Bonus #5:  We have created a special program so you can enjoy both our guaranteed online courses “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher” and “Event Full Business – How to Have a Seminar and Tour Business”.  “Event Full Business – How to Have a Seminar and Tour Business” has been offered regularly at $349.

When you order “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher” at the regular price of $499 you receive all five bonuses at no extra cost. You save $946 total.

Self Fulfilled Special $499

GUARANTEED. We’ll Accept All the Risk!

We completely guarantee the program.

Order Self Publishing: Your Complete Business Plan for becoming a self publisher and take a full 30 days to put it through its paces.  That way you can follow my simple process and start seeing the results for yourself.

If you’re not completely convinced that this information can help you develop income through writing to sell—all you have to do is let us know and  you’ll receive a complete refund of every penny of your investment.

Fair enough?

Our publishing business has brought us more wealth, satisfaction, fun and friendship than we ever imagined possible.  We want to share our knowledge and secrets with anyone who has a desire to experience this way of life.

Whether you are an engineer, doctor, housewife, business owner, or retiree… self-publishing offers a way to create income by turning your passion into profit.

Don’t miss this special opportunity.  Order Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher today if you want to cash in on the satisfying, profitable and exciting lifestyle that publishing can bring despite and in fact because of trouble in the world.

Self Fulfilled Special $499

 

(1) article relating to businessinsider.com chart

Grounded Multi Currency Opportunity Flies


Multi currency opportunity flies high while the markets decide what to do… moving one day up and one day down.

msci-chart-bloomberg

This Bloomberg.com chart of the one week movement of the Morgan Stanley Capital Index of global stock markets shows that investors are not sure what to do. That’s a good sign as it suggests that greed and panic are balanced.  Plus your investing can soar if others are confused and you are grounded in what you want to do.

All this volatility… plus a note from a reader reminded me of the importance in the duality of investing.

The reader wrote: Good Morning Mr. Scott.  My feet refuse to touch the ground.  The universe has sent me to you and Mrs. Scott ; I am full of inspiration to FULFILL MY DREAMS. 

My reply was:   Flying high is good as long as the principles behind the flight are well grounded.  We’ll do our best to help with both… the flight and the grounding.  Regards, Gary

This is about the importance of duality with multi currency investing and business.

The challenge of international investors and business people is to see the big picture but also pay attention to the minute details.  Take for example how this duality works in answering a question for a reader who wrote this very grounded query:  Hello Mr. Scott,  I just subscribed to your online newsletter this week and I’m looking for your opinion on investing in the Canadian market.  I haven’t yet seen you address it in your newsletter, I’m hoping I didn’t miss it.

With the volatility of our stock market I have decided to pull out and thought I would use the Canadian dollar as a safe haven.  At this point I’m just not sure where else to go?  I would very much value your opinion .  HELP!!!!  Thank you.

My reply was:  We believe in value investing and the value analyst we use, Keppler Asset Management, find that the Canadian market is among the low value sell candidate markets at this time.

market-values     

Here is my the currency breakdown of my portfolio.

Dollar Bloc  46.6%

US Dollar         22.0%

Australian $      7.0%

Canadian $        6.8%

New Zealand $ 10.8%

LatAm Bloc    17.7%

Colombian peso    .8%

Mexican peso      4.5%

Brazilian real      13.4%

Euro Bloc         32.5%

Euro                    20.6%

British pound         .4%

Danish kroner      3.6%

Norwegian krn     6.5%

Polish zloty           2.0%

Asian Bloc          1.o%

Singapore $           1.0%

You’ll see in my personal portfolio that 6.8% of my portfolio is in Canadian dollars.  This is not an investment in the Canadian market but half in electricity (Brookfield Renewable Power) and half Canadian dollar bonds.

I recommend our Multi Currency Report.

I also highly recommend Jyske Bank Private Bank as they offer for Canadians Jyske Invest Global Funds which invest in a VAMOS (Value Momentum and Strength) system and have enjoyed excellent success.

René Mathys at Jyske can be reached at mathys@jbpb.dk  for non Americans.

Thomas Fischer at Jyske Global Asset Management can help Americans at fischer@jgam.com     Regards,

Our challenge as investors… as business people… as living human beings trying to evolve internally as we grapple with external events beyond our control is to integrate the established box of thought that currently maintains social economic order with wiser expanded thinking outside the box.

In this instance my investing logic uses numerous “in-the-box” processes such as the ideas about diversification… price earnings ratios and price to book valuations…. 30 year economic cycles, national debt ratios, income per capita, asset allocation, demographics, supply-demand, technology and political stability to name a few.

However there is always something one does not know. To avoid being blinded by the tyranny of reason, I also use several out of the box thought processes. One I depend on is Vedic Astrology.  There are three elements I throw into my “thought pot”.

Vedic Astrological Concept #1: My nature.  Based on the place and time of birth to minute (Oct. 14) my chart shows I am a Leo rising, Taurus moon and Virgo sun… not  a Libra as generic astrology based on day of birth suggests. The placements in my chart suggest that I will have success in publishing, communication, real estate, liquids and gases.

So when I review the investment potential of Brookfield Renewable Power, and whether it might be good in my portfolio or not, I think about the chart of this investment. I recognize that the Canadian market is a bad value market from a statistical point of view.  I look at Brookfield’s earnings and its potential future earnings. I review the demographics and potential for electricity prices to rise.

Then I ask, “Is this an investment suited to me?”  Electricity created by liquid (hydro power) and gas (wind power) is perfectly in tune with my chart.

Vedic Astrological Concept #2: My current astrological position.  Once  a year I review my chart with Blaine Watson and we discuss the portion of my chart down three levels… major, sub and sub sub cycle.   For example I have been in a major Saturn cycle for the last 19 years (ending this December).  This is a cycle that turns grain into wheat… refines and improves though grinding hard work. Because of my chart Saturn favors laying of foundations… foreign involvement… and sits in my house of wealth and fame… through great effort.  In this cycle I expect a slow grinding process and expect to thrive by having challenges.

So if I see an opportunity that looks good but will require steadfastness… I would not discard this.  I expect to have to work hard at whatever I do in this major cycle.

My sub cycle is Jupiter. This is a transformation sub cycle (for example transforming water and air into electricity which gets transformed into light and or heat and or motion).  Jupiter governs knowledge and is the teacher and dispels darkness.  Jupiter is the planet of intelligence and owns my 5th house of higher learning, spiritual, philosophical and governs the house of success in change and transformation.

Today my sub sub cycle changed from Mars… a cyle when I would gain through acts of being bold to Rahu… a cycle that will favor being busy.

Here are my notes for this sub sub cycle: Busy? You ain’t seen nothing yet. Relentless. Business rises exponetially but unpredictably so take one step at a time. Exalted. Expect to achieve other large amounts. Foreigners will be a big part of this pacture.

Warning!  You get what you want. Be cautious of your own intelligence. Be careful of illusion. If something comes to you, consider it. If it comes from you… be suspicious.

That busy element has already cranked up as these sub sub cylces often do. We are just jammed. New sales highs… increased email… more people working with us…creating more questions to answer and ideas to review… more guests than we have ever had… new grandchildren arriving… a new charity event to fulfill.. all at once.

Were this not expected… one could get discouraged.

Here is Blaine Watson’s (my astrologer)  explanation of this thinking.

There are 2 main factors to be taken in to consideration when making an investment, boiling it all down to its basics.  One is the timing and the second is what to invest in.  The birth horoscope will give us strong clues as to both.

We have had some fairly good results using the natal chart. The most frequent experience I have had in this regard is in the real estate sector.  Most people, at some time in their life, will have to buy or sell a house or land.  Using the natal chart and the timings via the cycles of the chart and the current transits of the planets we have been able to use a system of calculation called in Sanskrit, Muhurtha, to time both the sale and purchase sides of the transaction with sometimes spectacular results. A muhurtha is actually the horoscope for the moment of the transaction itself. It is calculated by the astrologer and can be done independently of a birth chart although ideally in conjunction with it.

A client in Canada emailed last year saying he was needing to sell his house and buy a larger one to accommodate his expanding family.  The market at the time was in a downslide and property values were dropping rapidly, not extremely, but enough to cause concern when selling a smaller place and moving to a larger one.  His chart and the muhurtha that was calculated gave a particular date and time to list. His real estate agent wanted to immediately put the house on the market and have an open house the day before the muhurtha. I told him it was up to him but that he had asked and his chart said this time on this date would produce good results for him. He bit the bullet and listed it on the day suggested in the 12 minute window that was given to him. He had showings the next day and house was sold the following weekend at 19% above his asking price.

Another client in Canada had listed her house a year before she approached me.  She had not had a single showing in the entire year and her real estate agent said there was no market. I told her to take the house off the market and re-list it on a particular date at a particular time. Ironically it was only 2 days from the day she got in touch with me. She suggested she should just leave it on the market since the date was so close. I told her that she had listed the house a year ago at a time that was not favourable to real estate in her chart and that it would be best to completely close out of that not favourable energy in order take advantage of the more positive cycle coming up.  She took it off the market that day and re-listed on the day and at the time suggested.  She had a showing that very day and 3 days later the house closed and she was able to move on with her life. Literally.

This approach can be used for any sector at any time.  From the chart we can know what sector to invest in, or if investment is even something that should be considered.  There are high risk investments and long term conservative investments.  There are major and minor gambles. Anyone who has invested will know this. With the knowledge of the cycles of time we can take advantage of those cycles that favour us in particular and the world in general. We can think of them as the circadian rhythms of the universe if you will.  The stock market in general is difficult to call to say the least. I know of one company on wall street that uses western astrology (I practice Indian astrology – Jyotish) to time its entries and exits and it has, statistically, a 50% success rate, which is by any standard, not too shabby. I don’t have expertise in global predictions and prefer to use the individual horoscope to choose the sector and the timing.  Unfortunately or fortunately this approach requires an absolutely precise and known birth time. If someone doesn’t know their time of birth or if the birth time has been rounded off (99% of the time it is recorded as a rounded off time) we have to find it. There are ways of doing this. Once we are confident that the birth time is 100% accurate, we can be confident of the timing.

We have this knowledge in the west that for every thing there is a season.  For growing in greater substance and stability there are tools that we can take advantage of.  One thing we cannot do though is make everyone a multi billionaire. This tool is like any other tool that we have access to.  Also, we rely on our common sense and what works and doesn’t work for us.  For example, a client’s chart might say oil is a good sector to invest in. Morally they may not want to invest in petroleum but they could just as easily and profitably invest in food oils or essential flower oils.  This is something you would decide for yourself once you knew which sector was good for you.

Basically it all boils down to taking advantage of whatever knowledge we can to make life more smooth and easy so that we can move through life consciously and less like a log floating down the river at the mercy of whatever currents seize us at the time.

When I look at Brookfield Power or any business or investing idea…  I combine this out of the box thinking with the normal economic financial thought process.  For example… yes, transforming water and air to energy made sense in my chart… and Merri’s also.  I have not touched on this but because Merri and do almost everything together, we always look at both our charts.

Brookfield made sense in all the normal reasons, a solid company with good assets, strong management, a growth record and solid footing in an industry that has growing demand.    Plus the investment fit perfectly into our asset allocation and diversification plan.

Out of the Box… Whatever

Merri and I have found that reflecting on our charts has been meaningful… accurate and helps us regularly.  Yet one can use other methods as well. I often use the Bible to get me thinking out of the box… but not in a customary way.  I open to a page or passage and read whatever I see first… then reflect on this.  Other times I use several other great books… Rumi and Gibran being two notables… depending on what’s close when the impulse to get out of the box arrives.

Everyone should use what works for them. I Ching is popular… Tarot cards could work well.  I reckon flipping a coin works also. 

There is even some evidence that a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a financial page can pick stocks as well as professional investment managers.  Excerpts from an article (linked below) at Investorhome.com explains:

In 1988 the Wall Street Journal began a contest that was inspired by Burton Malkiel’s book A Random Walk Down Wall Street. In the book, the Princeton Professor theorized that “a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts.”

The Journal set out to create an entertaining contest to test Malkiel’s theory and give its readers some new investment ideas in the process.
The contest began on October 4, 1988 and since then more than 100 contests have been completed under the current rules.

On October 7, 1998 the Journal presented the results of the 100th dartboard contest. The pros won 61 of the 100 contests versus the darts.

Researchers that have come to the defense of the darts argue that the contest has some unique circumstances that deserve elaboration.

Professor Bing Liang studied the contest over an even longer period and published a paper in the January 1999 issue of the Journal of Business titled “Price Pressure: Evidence from the Dartboard Column.”

Liang also documented a 2-day announcement effect, which reversed within 15 days. Liang found that the returns were intertwined with the pro’s track record.

Liang concluded that the pros neither outperformed the market nor the darts.

According to Liang, the pros supposed superior performance could be explained by the small sample size, the announcement effect, and the missing dividend yields. One of the strongest criticisms of the contest is the fact that the Journal measures performance by price appreciation only, despite the fact that total return is measured by both price appreciation and dividends. \

For the period that Liang studied, the pro’s stocks had an average dividend yield of 1.2% versus yields for the darts of 2.3% and 3.1% for the DJIA average.

Liang found that the pro’s stocks were riskier (they had higher betas than the market and the dart’s stocks) and had higher relative strength at the beginning of the contest. Liang also found abnormal volume in the pro’s stocks before the contest announcement. This could be coincidental or could indicate that someone knew the pro’s picks were coming and traded on them prior to the columns. Interestingly, the dartboard stocks tended to perform well after the contest ended.

Faith

The Arabic saying… “Trust in God but make sure your camels are tied up at night” summarizes the importance of grounding and thinking outside the box. The process you use to think outside the box should be one YOU have faith in.

My Quaker upbringing and experience with Chinese, Indian and Andean ancient philosophies gives me great faith in the direct connection we all have to a higher being and universal wisdom.  I have found Holy books, mystic poems, animal signs and Vedic Astrology work remarkably well for Merri and me.  So we have faith in these guides to paths that are out of the box.

Whatever works for you… whatever thought evoking process you can have faith in will help you be better at investing, business and earning in this age of declining faith in the words, honesty and order of the establishment.

History shows us in every instance that part of the population flies higher during all times good or bad.  Those who fly highest are grounded by integrating logic and a greater universal intelligence.   That’s a fact you can have faith in.

Have a good weekend.

Gary

Join Merri, me and Thomas Fischer as we enjoy the Blue Ridge leaf change and update where to invest globally and how to earn extra income with an international micro business. See  our October 7-9 International Investing Seminar.  See details here.

ecuador-tours

Join Merri, me and Blaine Watson for his Investing Beyond Logic.

Track MSCI World Stock Index at Bloomberg.com. Click here

See more on Brookfield Renewable Power

Read more about dartboard investing

International Investing & Business Seminar


International Investing & Business Made EZ
West Jefferson , North Carolina,  June 24- 16  2011

Friday, June 24:

9:00    1000 Year Economic Review’  Power of Diversified Portfolios.
10:30  Coffee Break.
11:00 Where to Invest Now? How to Cash in on the Multi Currency Evolution.
12:00  Lunch
2:00  High Value Shares.
3:00    Coffee break
3:30    Commodities Gold & Silver.
4:30:    Risk On or Off and Trading Down.  Model Portfolio Reviews… small to large.
5:00     End of Session

Saturday, June 25:

9:00 Specific Shares Now.
9:30 Cash in Currencies
10:30 Coffee Break
11:00 Water Energy & Real Estate.
12:00  Lunch
2:00  Quantum Wealth. Multi-Dimensional Ideas for Health & Wealth.
3:00  Natural Physics of Health & Wealth.
3:30 Coffee
4:00 The Ultimate Asset. Your Own International Micro Business.
5:00 End of Session

6:30 Wine & Cheese Reception at Ndew River Winery hosted by
Thomas Fischer, Jyske Global Asset Management.

Sunday, June  26:

9:00    How to Monetize Your Micro Business.
10:30  Coffee break
11:00 Seven Ps for Global at Home Business
12:00 Lunch
2:00  How to Have an Import-Export Business Anywhere.
3:00  Coffee Break.
4:00  Question & Answers

5:00 End of Seminar

 

Beat Inflation Seven Ways


There are ten days left to save $499 as you learn to beat Inflation in Seven Ways.

Exporting can beat inflation and provide freedom, tax benefits and an exciting lifestyle!  This is why we focus on helping readers to find niche products they can export.

Here are seven unusual export ideas.

Ecuador Export Report

Excellent Export Ideas

Ecuador Chocolate Exports

Export Organic

Export Bio Wash Agriculture

Export Phyto Products & Services

We will review all seven of these ideas in the Export Workshop we’ll conduct at our June 24 to 26 International Business and Investing seminar in the Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina.  Hope to see you there!

Gary

Learn about travel with ESA (Emotional Support Animals) here.

Join Merri and me this June 24 to 26 along with Thomas Fischer of Jyske Global Asset Management to see our portfolios in the next quarter.  Meet Bonnie Keough with her years of experience this field in an Ecuador export workshop.

Spotting Trends to Survive Shifts Part I


Surviving shifts by spotting trends has grown in importance in many ways.

surviving investing shifts

Real money. What can happen during economic shifts.

One huge trend… that has been covered in our seminars, newsletters and websites for 40 years… is the shift from the Old World to the New.

Emerging markets are viewed as those as the ones with risk but in reality for the past 20 years… the greatest growth has been in emerging markets.  Emerging markets have grown more and now emerging equity markets are valued higher than major markets.

Most investors miss the shift because they use Old World Views to process information about the New World, which of course the New World is the Here and Now!

Investors need to know where nations, regions, cultures, etc. are in a cycle.  Major industrialized nations… the USA, Western Europe, Japan are wealthy countries with slow growth… burdened by aging populations…unhealthy lifestyles… unfunded pensions, obligations and massive debt.  From them Phoenix will arise… but one needs to know where these nations are in the cycle.  One has to look for new, emerging economies that arise within nations like this.

Yesterday’s message which began this Surviving Shifts series looks for example at how agricultural economies within the USA are rising.

One has to determine why one is buying… an investment or a place to live.  Where one wishes to live… and what place on the investing curve one wishes to be.

We have to remember that Third World is not what it used to mean.

Third World is where the action is and has been for a very long time. Yet the mentality is that Third World is risky compared to Old World.

This incorrect mentality creates opportunity because massive repetition of an error does not make it correct!

This is why I see seeds of a great opportunity in Jyske Global Asset Managers recent Market Update.  Lars Stoege of JGAM wrote:

This week, the Portuguese government threw in the towel on the budget cuts. The Communist Party couldn’t/wouldn’t support Prime Minister Socrates who subsequently chose to resign. One of the consequences has been that Standard & Poor (S&P) downgraded the sovereign debt from A- to BBB.

Pedro Silva Pereira, the official spokesperson for the government still states that a rescue package from the EU or IMF wouldn’t be in the best interest of the nation, and expects that a new government will have to adopt some of the budget cuts that were suggested by the Socrates-government.

Speculations are currently whether Spain will be the next in line after 30 Spanish banks suffered the humiliation of being downgraded by Moody’s. Pretty much simultaneously, the EU has confirmed the new European Stability Mechanism (ESM) backed by 500 billion euro.

In the past, downgrades in Europe would have resulted in a depreciation of the EUR to the USD. This time, however, there was very little reaction on the news from Europe as well as from the crisis in North Africa and the Middle East and the catastrophe in Japan. This, however, does not indicate a change of paradigms but could be the result of poor numbers out of the US, where the New Homes sales were 19% lower than expected and Durable Goods sales were more than 2% below expectations.

In Europe, the much discussed interest rate hike-to come has caused the German business confidence to fall less than initially expected and the Bundesbank still predicts an economic growth of 2.5% following the 3.6% in 2010. A ray of sunshine is that the Bavarian automaker, BMW, aims to beat 2010’s record result this year – and this is seen in the light of the ever more expensive gasoline and the average BMW not exactly going far on the gallon.

Statoil, the Norwegian oil exploring company and distributor of gasoline is benefitting from the increasing oil prices and the share has gone up by 9.5% from 141 on January 19th when we bought it for our low risk portfolios to 154.5 today. Statoil is today part of all of our managed asset allocation portfolios.

USA citizens and residents can get  more details about where to invest from Thomas Fischer at JGAM. His email is fischer@jgam.com

Non USA investors should contact Rene Mathys at Jyske Bank mathys@jbpb.dk

The opportunity is in the fact that while the southern of Europe (Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Greece – called the PIIGS) have grown weaker economically, a number of the northern European economies have become stronger revolving around Germany. Germany has created the most competitive industrial sector of any advanced economy. German exports jumped 18.5% in 2010, far higher than most of the developed world.

This German and Northern European strength means there is a 50-50 chance the euro will split into two currencies, let’s call them the Euromark and the Eurosouth. The euromark would likely jump 20% to 30% against the eurosouth and rise 15% to 20% versus the US dollar.

This means that northern European countries that earn a major share if their income in the north of Europe are likely to see a really great bump up.

I have already invested in three such shares… Jyske Bank (which I have held for many years) and now Sky Deutscheland (TV) and Alex Springer (publishing).

surviving investing shifts

Jyske Bank staying ahead of consumer shifts wanted to be known for their good coffee and installed expresso machines in their branches.  The bank earns a substantial portion of  its income in the north parts of Europe.

Take Ecuador real estate prices as another example.

ecuador-hacienda-for-sale

Here is an Ecuador hacienda that delegates saw on Jean Marie Butterlin’s recent Imbabura Ecuador real estate tour. See more photos of the hacienda here.

A reader sent this note yesterday regarding a recent advertisement that ran at this site for Vilcabamba real estate.

Gary, These prices seem very very high for a 3rd world deal. I can buy FL properties for less. What am I missing?

What the reader was missing is the understanding that all markets move in cycles.

Old World economies are on the downside of their curve.  Florida prices are falling as Ecuador and other Latin American real estate prices rise.

New economies will arise from within the old. Northern Europe rising within Europe…. USA Agriculture rising within the US.  New emerging markets will continue to grow faster than the Old… Latin American real estate…. emerging market currencies, equities and bonds.

Spotting where each is in its curve can help investors survive and profit from these shifts.

Gary

Learn how to think outside the box.


Gold Review 2011 Summary


This gold review was scheduled for next week but I posted it today as I am guessing that the crash in gold’s price has caused some knitted brows.

I planned this Gold Review for 2011 because we entered the new year with the gold price near an all time high and all time highs always create areas of concern!

All the debt around the world and inflation over the past 25 years were bound to push up the price of gold… but has it reached a stratosphere where a bubble could burst?

gold

I began my global investing career as a gold bug. One way I have invested in gold is American Eagles… one ounce of gold.  Double boxed… inside of

gold

velvet and sealed in…

gold

plastic. Held in a safe deposit box now for about 20 years they have not been a bad investment… rising over 400% in 20 years,  but a normal investment… to me… they are not.

Many other investments were far better.  Gold has a definite place in one’s portfolio, but I have created this Gold Review because not all about gold investing is golden as you’ll see below.

Executive Summary for Gold Review 2011: To give a quick overview for those who don’t have the time for the full review, I am posting the executive summary of this report below free. (For those who want and have the time and interest, my entire Gold Review 2011 which runs many many pages can be ordered for $9.99. (Order here)

Point #1:  A series of  economic events have come together to worry investors world wide. Some of them are the staggering numbers of aging boomers in North America, Europe and Japan  – Low returns of fixed income investment – US dollars losing global reserve status – the Euro crisis – stubborn unemployment in US and Europe – North Korea  – Iran – Huge US, Japanese and European government debts.

In the past, worried investors fled to the US dollar, Swiss francs and gold.  Now the dollar and euro (which negatively affects the Swiss franc) are part of the problem.  The Swiss unemployment rate is again rising, up  0.1 percentage points in November to 3.6 percent, the latest official data showed on December 7, 2010.

Gold (and other precious metals) are left as the last guardians during dangerous economic times.

Point #2:  Stock markets globally have risen dramatically since the 2007-2008 equity collapse.

mcsi-chart

Here is the 2010 chart for the Morgan Stanley Captial Index World Index (all major markets excluding emerging markets) from www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=MXWO:IND

We can see that this is a continuance of a trend that began in 2009 after equity markets collapsed globally.  Here is the three year chart of the same index at the Bloomberg site.

mcsi-chart

Emerging markets performed even better.  Below is the Morgan Stanley Capital Index Em Index for 2010.

mcsi-chart

Here is the three year chart.

mcsi-chart

This Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index. As of May 2005, it consisted of indices in 26 emerging economies: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Jordan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and Venezuela.

Shares compete with gold to attract investors and have the advantage of much lower dealing costs and pay dividends.  This shows that gold prices have shown considerable strength to rise as high as they have despite the strong global equity price improvement.

#3: Compared to equities the rise in the price of gold for the last year has been strong.

We can see the reverse synchronicity between gold and global equity prices when we notice the spurt in gold prices in May through July 2010 when equity markets slowed.

gold-chart

In fact no matter which chart you view…

Here is a five year gold chart.

gold-chart

The rise in gold looks good especially…

gold-chart

strong in the last six months.

gold-chart

This warns us that gold’s price may be frothy. And  Tuesday’s (Jan. 4, 2011) price drop suggests that the market is now growing more nervous.

gold-spot

Three day gold pricie chart from www.goldprice.org

This chart was written before the January 5, Hong Kong market began… but those prices are included in the full gold review 2011 report.

Hong Kong’s reaction will be an important signal.

A long term chart analysis also suggests that gold’s big recovery may now be near its top.

gold-chart

Point #4:  Gold has appreciated a lot since 1942. Price comparisons show that Gold has outperformed 13 of 15 standards we reviewed. Only a Harvard tuition and housing prices have risen higher than gold.  This gives only a partial picture of gold’s true value, but should give us pause for thought.

How much is gold worth now?  This of course is THE golden question…so let’s compare prices.

Prices (1942 to 1967 source: “Remember When” by Seek Publishing 2007 to 2010: US Bureau of Labor)

gold-price-comparison

If we assume that the gold price of $33.85 an ounce (before the end of WWII and the huge inflation this conflict created), is the more accurate than the price at the end of the war,  the house, car and wage cost is one place to start a comparison.

Biggest increase: Harvard tuition 80 times increase.

House prices from 1942 until 2010 increased 67 times.

Gold has risen about 41 times.

Cars jumped 30 times.

Movies  27 times.

Wages increased 24 times.

Rentals are up 20 times.

Gas 20 times.

Postage 15 times.

Bread 15 times.

Pound of sugar 10 times.

Hamburger about 9 times.

Coffee, bacon, eggs all about 8 times increase.

Milk only five times.

Gold has risen about 41 times (4,100% or 60% per annum simple) from 1942 to 2010 at its January 4, 2011 price of  1,383.

Point #5: Unemployment is not getting better. A recent New York Times article says “Few New Jobs as Jobless Rate Rises to 9.8%”.

Another NYT article “Unemployment Rises in Europe”  By David Jolly says:  Unemployment in the euro zone rose in October to its highest level in more than 12 years, an official report showed Tuesday.

Unemployment slows inflation and favors deflation the enemy of the price of gold!

Point #6:  Gold is a good investment in some circumstances. Gold could rise even more if the economic problems could lead to a stampede in stock markets… great currency volatility and inflation.  Gold is good as insurance because it represents real money.  However a 95 year study comparing precious metals to equities, housing and bonds shows that over the long term gold is the third best performer and is especially weak during inflation..

Point # 7:  Gold has its downsides. Gold’s price is volatile and subject to great long term depressions.  If there is sustained deflation, gold prices could drop.  Gold is expensive to hold and gold does not pay dividends.

The conclusion of this report is that gold prices will rise but much more slowly and could have several short term price corrections over the next year.

You can order the full Gold Review 2011 for $9.99 here.

Our favorite bullion dealer who we have known for over 20 years is Asset Strategies. Get more information from Rich Checkan at rcheckan@assetstrategies.com

Gary

See a full review on gold investing at our February 11-12, 2011 International Investing Seminar in Mt. Dora, Fl.  See details at www.garyascott.com/catalog/international-investments-and-international-business-course

Gain ideas on how to use gold to finance your own micro business at our February 12-13, 2011 International Business Made EZ Seminar in Mt. Dora.  See details at www.garyascott.com/catalog/international-business-made-ez-seminar

Learn how to use FM Plus (Frequency Modulation) to think out of the box when investing and in business at our February 11 – 12 2011International Investing International Business Seminar or both – (saves up to $499) in Mt. Dora, Florida or both. and February 12-13, 2011.

Terror in Real Estate


There are many sparks that could ignite terror in investing markets.

See below ideas on how to earn in real estate in Ecuador or the USA.

fixer-upper-gary-scott

Real estate… imagination… research for value… creativity… and a bit of elbow grease create five powerful profitable combination… even in…

guest-house

these depressed times. See how you can use these five qualities to beat terror in the market below.

Many worry about a spark will be  European national defaults in Ireland or Greece, or Spain… but how about the US… states being the flint?

An excerpt from a recent New York Times article by Marco Garcia entitled “Mounting State Debts Stoke Fears of a Looming Crisis”

The State of Illinois is still paying off billions in bills that it got from schools and social service providers last year. Arizona recently stopped paying for certain organ transplants for people in its Medicaid program. States are releasing prisoners early, more to cut expenses than to reward good behavior. And in Newark, the city laid off 13 percent of its police officers last week.

While next year could be even worse, there are bigger, longer-term risks, financial analysts say. Their fear is that even when the economy recovers, the shortfalls will not disappear, because many state and local governments have so much debt — several trillion dollars’ worth, with much of it off the books and largely hidden from view — that it could overwhelm them in the next few years.

Municipal bankruptcies or defaults have been extremely rare — no state has defaulted since the Great Depression, and only a handful of cities have declared bankruptcy or are considering doing so.

But the finances of some state and local governments are so distressed that some analysts say they are reminded of the run-up to the subprime mortgage meltdown or of the debt crisis hitting nations in Europe.

Analysts fear that at some point — no one knows when — investors could balk at lending to the weakest states, setting off a crisis that could spread to the stronger ones, much as the turmoil in Europe has spread from country to country.

The spark that creates terror is the one that deflates confidence and such a default could create a stampede out of  stock and bond markets.

This is one reason Merri and I like investing in real estate… especially in places like Florida where prices have fallen so dramatically and created so much value.

Prices are down and may fall more, but the demographics support.

Unemployment can continue to stall Florida’s real estate recovery. Plus there was a huge wave of 5 year balloon mortgages in 2005… that may create another wave of defaults.  So real estate in Florida could take another hit.

Keep these short term facts in mind but look at the long term demographics.

A USA Today article “Where will everybody live?” By Haya El Nasser outlines three significant facts about this.

First, the American population has risen from 200 million to 300 million in 39 years. At present growth rates the next hundred million will come in only 34 years!

Second, today each American owns 20% more developed land (housing, schools, stores, roads) than 20 years ago. By the 1990s 1.7 acres of land was developed for each additional person.

Third. More people need more space.  100 million additional people will need 70 million new homes and 100 billion square feet of non residential space.

Inflation supports real estate investments.

Construction costs are not going to fall! Normal inflation and increased demand from emerging markets for cement, steel, timber and other basics assure this. Plus environmental concerns will continue to slow acceleration of supplies as well.

Another reason for real estate investments in the US is changing utility. For example my mom’s home which was once the bastion of suburban WASPs is now filled with Mexicans, Chinese and Ukrainians. Our builder friend tells me that at least half his home buyers are first time immigrants who use a family plan (the whole family comes over pitches in and buys a house). This means that a single house is once again becoming more popular as a place for two, three or even four generations to live together rather than just one.

House lots used to be 5,000 square feet minimum. Now they can be 2,500 square feet. That’s a big change in utility.

Technology is altering the concepts of time and space so…property (like the farms we live on) that was once pretty useless, or land in the desert like the dry part of the land in southeast Oregon suddenly has a new utility. This is especially true for tens of millions of boomers who will be highly mobile when they retire.

Next, we need to compare US property prices in global terms. Sometimes the forest is hard to see because of the trees and real estate values are hard to see because of local comparables.

Prices of housing in the US may seem high, when you compare them with US house prices of five or ten years ago.

What happens when we compare US real estate prices to those in other industrialized countries like France, England, Denmark and such instead? The thought. “We ain’t seen nothing yet” may arise!

There is another reason that Merri and I like investing into real estate.   There is a local fundamental utility that s easier to understand and see.

We always invest with the understand that there is always something we do not know.

A December New York Times article “11 Secretive Banking Elite Rules Trading in Derivatives”  by Louise Story explains why when it says:

On the third Wednesday of every month, the nine members of an elite Wall Street society gather in Midtown Manhattan.

The men share a common goal: to protect the interests of big banks in the vast market for derivatives, one of the most profitable — and controversial — fields in finance. They also share a common secret: The details of their meetings, even their identities, have been strictly confidential.

Drawn from giants like JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the bankers form a powerful committee that helps oversee trading in derivatives, instruments which, like insurance, are used to hedge risk.

In theory, this group exists to safeguard the integrity of the multitrillion-dollar market. In practice, it also defends the dominance of the big banks.

The banks in this group, which is affiliated with a new derivatives clearinghouse, have fought to block other banks from entering the market, and they are also trying to thwart efforts to make full information on prices and fees freely available.

Banks’ influence over this market, and over clearinghouses like the one this select group advises, has costly implications for businesses large and small.

Derivatives are also big business on Wall Street. Banks collect many billions of dollars annually in undisclosed fees associated with these instruments — an amount that almost certainly would be lower if there were more competition and transparent prices.

Just how much derivatives trading costs ordinary Americans is uncertain.

But big banks influence the rules governing derivatives through a variety of industry groups. The banks’ latest point of influence are clearinghouses like ICE Trust, which holds the monthly meetings with the nine bankers in New York.

Even when we use good investment analysts to invest in stocks and bonds, there is a lot more… going on in places we cannot see… we do not know.

We do not like real estate flipping either!

Flipping is a nice concept to buy and quickly resell for a great profit… but this is usually pure speculation. Most flippers end up broke!

We believe in value added real estate investing.

Add imagination to your real estate investment.

Combine the miracles and talents that lay within you. By all means study how to be a better investor or business person each and every day. Use the benefits of modern technology. Create a common sense approach to searching for good value in investments. Develop external disciplines. Don’t spend more than you have. Work. Save. Invest. Hire professionals to help you study the markets. Even study economics and finance if you wish.

But match each of these external steps by also looking within. You are unique. You are a fountain of wealth…get to know yourself better. Tap the incredible power, knowledge and experience you already have. Your wealth not only will grow, but will become better, an everlasting flood of abundance that makes your ordinary journey through life an extraordinary process you’ll never want to end.

Bargains in Ecuador A soft maritime breeze, cool thatch covered shade and swaying palms frame the views of the crystal clear sea. The ocean gently roars, a Pacific song, serenading our meal. The sun sets fiery orange in pure, golden skies.

“This is how you can live here in the land of the sun because Ecuador has it all,” I said to a group of International Living magazine readers who visited us in Ecuador. “Beauty, convenience, and incredible bargains. Now prices are even lower.”

The group believed me too since we were sitting at a restaurant where the Pacific stretched blue and serene from our cliff point into the horizon. Miles of empty beach lay in our view yet they had just inspected Mediterranean villas overlooking a sleepy fishing village and the sea with asking prices of only US$35,000.

This group was the first of two tours that visited with Merri and me in a whirlwind exploration across the equator.

Timing could not have been better. Ecuador is experiencing its worst economic crisis in 70 years. This has created a unique situation where one has access to every creature comfort available in the Western world and old world service at the same time. New cars (used cars cannot be imported into Ecuador to keep smog producers out), T.V., cell phones, computers, the most up to date Internet access and all modern conveniences are easily and readily available. Yet we can also have personal services no longer available in the U.S. or Europe except for the very, very multi-millionaire. With wages at 75 cents an hour and real estate costs low, every imaginable domestic service is just plain cheap.

Yet even then we did not just buy and resell.

We purchased a beat up, old hotel in a state of great deterioration.

Cotacachi progress

We spent two years making it beautiful.

We bought a broken down office building that sat empty for years and changed it from this to…

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into this…  three wonderful rental units.

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We bought seven half finished condos…

and completed them.

We bought this old farm house almost falling down… roof caved in and…

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made it beautiful.

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Our current project is in Florida where we purchased 16 acres… with orange groves… and a house in bad repair.

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The process of fixing has begun. First this garage… had a guest house that had been almost…

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abandoned.   Now it looks like…

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this.  Outside and…

Gary-Scott-guest-house

in.

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This process fills part of Merri’s and my  creative desires as it…

invest-in-real-estate-gary-scott

adds fun and value into out lives.

Real estate… imagination… research for value… creativity… about of elbow grease create a powerful, profitable combination… even in these depressed times!

There is great change in the world that is almost certain to create inflation that will ruin the finances of a huge number of people. The shift will most likely come rapidly after some economic spark creates terror that stampedes markets and economies.

There are five ways to survive and profit during this terror in investing markets.

Invest in equities.

Invest in commodities.

Invest in multi currencies.

Invest in your own micro business.

Invest in real estate.

Real estate and micro businesses are Merri’s and my favorite two solutions of the five because we can see the opportunity more clearly…. exert more control… add our imagination and build value in our own way.

Plus most of all… for us… real estate investing and fixing is fun and fulfilling.  This is the goal to pursue… earn in fun and fulfilling ways.

Gary

Read  the entire New York Times article  “11 Secretive Banking Elite Rules Trading in Derivatives

Mounting State Debts Stoke Fears of a Looming Crisis

Gary Scott Questions & Answers


Here are the Gary Scott Saturday Questions and Answers.

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Gary Scott speaking at European seminar on international investing.

Here are the Questions for today:

1: Question about the falling US dollar.

#2: Comments on beating the TSA Xray or pat down.

#3: Questions about the euro.

#4: Comments about government workers.

#5: Question on Ecuador’s offer of residence to the head of Wikileaks.

ecuador-roses

Don’t forget to order Ecuador Christmas Roses

#1: Question about the falling US dollar. Gary you keep making the statement [as the dollar falls] I keep reading every day about the dollar going up. Just wondering and ‘rwhy not be a little more positive about the U.S. Dollar and truthful, there are some pretty sound minds that believe it may rebound and if you’re that negative about it why all the assets in the U.S.?

My reply:

The dollar going up? These charts from Yahoo show…
dollar chart

that the US dollar has fallen from .85 to .75 euro over the past four years.

It has fallen even more versus the Japanese yen.

dollar chart

The dollar has even collapsed against emerging currencies like the Brazilian real.

dollar chart

Since I began writing about global investing 43 years ago, there have always been some pretty good minds who have argued that the dollar will rise. There have been short term trends (such as 1980 to 1985) but here is the long term reality shown in a chart from Grandfather.com. The dollar has been going… down… down…. down.

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In the past dozen years I have posted over 3,000 articles at my website at least a tenth of them about the falling US dollar.

Yet I just finished a report “Investing in Risk”.  Risk on what is good about investing the USA and why Merri and I love the USA.   However I do not confuse my love for the USA and Ecuador with my investments in currencies.  The US dollar is the currency of the USA and Ecuador but not my choice for investing.

My overall investment portfolio is short the US $…the only US $ investments that I have are in US and Ecuador real estate which I view as a separate currency that will rise as the US dollar falls.

If you would like these answers please start reading as you might get a better understanding of why we should expect the US dollar to fall but why investments in the US (especially made with borrowed dollars) offer great potential.

A shortcut to all the searching in my site is to order my report “Borrow Low-Deposit High” . Click here to learn more about the report.

Currently we also include the “Investing in Risk” report (a $49 value) free.

Many investors who love America have been fooled by the “Concept Conversion Trick”. I have warned against this since the 1970s. See why at the “Concept Conversion Trick” page of my International Investing basics.

#2: Comments on beating the TSA Xray or pat down.  This comment to last week’s Q & A about TSA came from a reader in Arizona. Hi! I live in Arizona. When I’ve flown to Ecuador, I’ve gone through Los Angeles or Houston. Tijuana has lots of flights to Costa Rica, which is a hub for Central and South America, as Panama is. I can get to San Diego in the same time I can get to L.A. by car. I won’t be going to Ecuador for a while again, but if the situation doesn’t change, I’m thinking about driving to San Diego, crossing the border on foot, and flying from Tijuana. I would go through U.S. Customs at the Tijuana border on foot on the way back. And I wouldn’t have to leave L.A. in the middle of the night. I see an international travel niche for Tijuana!

My comments: One can also travel by boat to the Bahamas or drive to Canada (regretfully Canada has no direct flights to Ecuador) and get a direct flight to Mexico, Costa Rica, Columbia, Panama.  Soon I expect we’ll also be able to boat to Cuba and once this happens we might see an increase in Havana-Quito flights!  But watch out. Many years ago, we lost a number of our Ecuadorian friends when a Russian built aircraft leaving Quito and bound for Havana crashed on takeoff in Quito, but hopefully a better airline with better planes will be available. Perhaps Quantas will fly some of its Airbus A380s from there.

Another Reader wrote this: For TSA-free travel, a “travel co-op” could purchase ( or lease ) passenger jets and fly out of FBO terminals security-check-free. People who fly in private jets are subject only to US Customs inspections & only on entry to the USA. Private jet passengers are never subjected to security searches. No bureaucrat would be that stupid. Just a thought.

My comments: I love and looked into the ideas of using multiple jet ownership, private jet service offering jet cards or jet taxis.

Flyers can tailor their itinerary and choose nearby airports and enjoy flying from FBOS when they choose to fly not based on the airlines schedule. Merri and I have made a couple of flights like this.  What a way to go!

This was a highly touted idea a few years ago when the VLJ (very light jet) was introduced. These smaller jets ring flight costs down… down…. down.

There were two big innovators with a lot of hype.  Eclipse Aviation claimed to have 2,500 Eclipse 500 aircraft on order and Adam Aircraft said they had an order backlog of 282 of its Adam A700 VLJ.

Airlines such as Florida-based air taxi company, DayJet, were forming based around using the VLJs and touting a new way to fly.

Regretably all three companies went bust.

Several airlines now produce VLJs such as Cessna’s  Mustang and Embraer’s Phenom 100 calling them very light personal jets or introductory class jets.  The jets carry four passengers and have a maximum range of about three hours.

Jet taxi services offer improved efficiency.  Blink Airlines for example which flies from London claims you arrive 15 minutes before you take off by avoiding check-in, inefficient security procedures, and delays reclaiming baggage.  They also offer multiple city visits in a day. Their ads says “Start in London, fly to Paris, travel on to Stuttgart and drop into Antwerp on the way home – such journeys are usually impossible if you travel with commercial airlines. With Blink, the possibilities are endless.”

Plus Blink claims to be competitive with business class travel when four people fly in their VLJs.

However they are still really expensive… about $4,000 an hour for the jet cards and private jet travel and the VLJs do not work for most overseas travel.  This is a really nice  option but limited and pretty pricey and I suspect most readers feel the same as well.

#3: Questions about the euro. Gary, hope you are well, enjoying the great daily updates as usual. As a resident of Ireland and in this crisis period, how do you see the euro performing? The greatest Euro sceptics are saying the euro would not last 20 years. Should Portugal, Spain follow suit and request help, is the euro doomed? Is it time to move your money and if so where? $ and £ look just as risky.

My reply: This is a million (trillion actually) dollar question.  The idea of the euro is rooted in Serajevo when on 28 June 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, heir apparent to the Austro-Hungarian throne, and his wife, Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg, were shot dead by Gavrilo Princip, one of a group of six Bosnian Serb assassins who were intent on breaking off Austria-Hungary’s south-Slav provinces so they could be combined into a Greater Serbia or a Yugoslavia.

That event was the spark that caused European tensions to explode into WWI.

You can enjoy a great read and understand the tensions that led to WWI and how WWI led to WWII  better reading Ken Follett’s new book Fall of Giants.

After those wars… the world was terrified that WWIII could follow, so the idea of uniting Europe began.  The euro and EU traces its origins from the original effort of some unification with the European Coal and Steel Community formed between six countries in 1951 and the Treaty of Rome formed in 1957 by the same states.

When I first started investing in and writing about multi currency investing… the formula was simple. Invest in the currencies where the governments were employing economic sanity… such as Germany and Japan.  Bet against the US dollar because the US government continued to spend more than it earned.

Then other politicians learned bad habits from the US. Germany went into debt buying East Germany and partnered up with other insane spenders gave up the DMark and joined the euro. Japan became on the the biggest spenders of all.  Yet these governments have not been as bad as Spain, Italy, Ireland and Greece.

Understanding global currency markets is so complex that unless it is one’s daily business the only way to figure out what is what is to employ the most simple, basic equations to these most complex questions.

So here is a simple view that I take.

First, see the tension. If a government has too much debt… it creates money by printing… which is inflationary. Inflation in a currency normally causes the currency to fall versus currencies in countries without so much debt. This makes goods from outside the debt ridden country more expensive.

The euro however allows overspending highly indebted nations in Europe called the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain – plus we need now to add Ireland) to have a currency (the euro) that is stronger than deserved.

The counterpoint is WWI and WWII. Plus now the difficulty of undoing the euro would be huge (though I do not think it to be as hard as many believe).

One simple measure to watch is budget balance as a percent of GDP.  The US is currently -9%,  Japan -7.6% and the euro area -6.4%.

This means long term, there is a pressure for the yen to fall versus the euro and the US dollar to fall versus both currencies.

However then look at the budget balance of  the nations who use the euro. Germany is -3.7%, France -7%, Belgium, -5.7%, Austria, -5.1%, Netherlands -5.7%, Italy, -5%, Greece, -9.1%, Spain -9.7%.  It is predicted that Ireland budget deficit could rise to -24%.

So the tension is internal to the euro and overall… from this comparison the euro is in better shape than the USA and Japan.

Ireland will announce its budget December 7, 2010 and I expect the euro to survive. However during the time it takes for the EU to sort out this mess, I also expect the euro to be volatile. So short term the euro will be bouncy… long term could be stronger than the dollar and yen.

I expect all three currencies to fall versus emerging currencies and personally have a highly diversified portfolio of currencies with an over weight in emerging market currencies.

The WisdomTree Emerging Market Debt Fund is one way to get managed diversification in these currencies.

There are many forces that could cause terror in the market including a potential Korean war, China & Russia abandoning the US dollar, Ireland’s budget falling apart, Spain needing a bailout, inflation hitting the US. Unemployment rising in the US and Western Europe, and who knows what impact the leaks at Wikileaks will create.

Global markets have been weakening throughout November.

wisdomtree chart

The symbol for the Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund is ELD.  This is an actively managed ETF.  See more on this ETF in an upcoming message.  The six month chart above from Bloomberg.com shows how this fund reflects volatility in currency markst but despite its fall (the fund quadrupled in price in a short time then corrected) its price has almost doubled in six months.

#4: Comments on government workers. Gary I work for the “gov’ment,” and I do not make the kind of wages you speak of where we make more than the private sector.  On the contrary!  I live and work in Alaska, for the State of Alaska, and I can PROMISE you that State workers in Alaska do NOT make more than the private sector, overall.  I made the trade-off for security,  because my background IS from the private sector.  I worked for Airline after Airline that went belly up, all because the government decided to remove their control and hand us the airline demise of “DEREGULATION.”  With that came the failed airline industry….one after another and people losing their jobs…they should have stayed regulated, the gov’t bailed on us….with their control there would have been more stability…  trickle down Reagan-nomics has proved to be a failed policy, where only the RICH GET RICHER and the poor get poorer….as we have proof of this after 8 years of GWBUSH and the evil Cheney…That party clearly caused the great recession….in my humble opinion, they and their stupid wars….. I would venture to say that big oil controls the gov’t not the other way around… …

So when you write your articles, please make it clear that not ALL GOV’T workers make more than the private sector…because there are people out there who will believe anything they read…. And not catch that you even said federal…. you made it sound like ALL gov’t workers make more money….which is so untrue..

We State workers lost all of our sick leave a long time ago, plus, free medical is no longer given out to retirees and neither is a defined retirement….Alaska only gives out what  you save after five years commitment along with their match up to a small percentage….plus, because state workers do not pay in to social security but in to a different account, we risk losing it as we did in the downturn….so any money we paid in to social security from all the years before we went to work for the state, guess what, we are penalized and do not get to collect on…. Also, the State of Alaska is second from the bottom in the USA for paying unemployment benefits….you pay in to it, you collect a pittance if out of work..(compared to other States – we compare to Alabama! )

I think you are a very unique individual and I so appreciate your writing, for the most part.   You cannot please all of the people all of the time, but you do a pretty good job of it.

Thank you

My reply: Oops. Just after I wrote this article on how much Federal government workers were paid I read this in the New York Times: President Obama to Announce a Pay Freeze for Most Federal Workers  – President Obama plans to announce a pay freeze for most federal workers later Monday morning, according to an administration official, the latest White House move intended to demonstrate concern over deficit spending.

The president’s announcement will effectively wipe out plans for a 1.4 percent across-the-board raise for most of the 2.1 million federal government employees in 2011. The president has frozen the salaries of his own top White House staff members since taking office 22 months ago.

Yikes, I hope my article did not cause this. Seriously… this reader has a point I am all toowell aware of.  State, city and county government employees do not have government like deals.

I know this because my dad grew up in the depression and was fanatical about job security.  He therefore worked his entire life after WWII for the City of Portland, making less than private sector.  That worked for him and when the zoo was turned over the the Zoological society, the city still had a job for him as a parks foreman.  He never made a lot of money… but back in those days the insurance… the sick days… the vacation and the steadiness were all good.   Today it is different.  Dad is gone and my mom is beginning to suffer as the City loses its ability to fill obligations and commitments to its workers.  Lucky she has Merri, our daughter, my sister and me to make sure she remains in comfort  as she nears 90! (Good goin’ mom!).

Reader’s Question #5: Would you comment on Ecuador’s offer to the head of Wikileaks.

The reader sent me this note: November 29 Associated Press Article entitled “Ecuador offers a home for founder” By GONZALO SOLANO

QUITO, Ecuador (AP) – If WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange needs a home, Ecuador’s deputy foreign minister says this Andean nation is happy to provide one.

The 39-year-old Australian, who has incensed and embarrassed Washington with the release by his online whistle-blowing organization of hundreds of sensitive diplomatic cables, had sought residency and a work permit in Sweden.

But after the release by WikiLeaks beginning in late July of thousands of sensitive documents from the Iraq and Afghan wars, a Swedish court ordered him detained for questioning on sexual assault allegations—claims Assange denies and calls part of a smear campaign.

Assange, who keeps his whereabouts secret and moves around a lot, could also face legal complications at home. Australia’s attorney general said Monday that it was studying whether he’d broken any laws there.

In contrast to the potential hostility from U.S. allies, leftist-run Ecuador provided Assange with an invitation Monday.

Deputy Foreign Minister Kintto Lucas said in audio posted online by the Ecuador Inmediato news site that “We are open to giving him residence in Ecuador, without any kind of trouble and without any kind of conditions.”

“We think it would be important not only to converse with him but to listen to him,” Lucas added, saying Ecuador wanted to invite Assange to “freely expound” and see what it’s like in “friendly countries”.

He praised people like Assange “Who are constantly investigating and trying to get light out of the dark corners of (state) information”.

Lucas said Ecuador’s government was “very concerned” by revelations that U.S. diplomats have been involved in spying in the first of the more than 250,000 U.S. diplomatic cables and directives that WikiLeaks has begun to release.

WikLeaks says it has 1,621 cables that originated in the U.S. Embassy in Quito.

Their contents have not yet been disclosed.

Ecuador expelled two U.S. diplomats in early 2009, accusing one of directing CIA operations in Ecuador and another of interferring in police affairs.

The government continues close counternarcotics cooperation with the United States, but a year ago President Rafael Correa, a U.S.-educated economist, refused to renew the lease on what had been Washington’s only base for counternarcotics flights in South America, the Manta airfield.

He said that if Washington would grant Ecuador an air base in Florida, he’d be happy to host U.S. flight operations.

My reply: I checked on this and learned that Deputy Foreign Minister Kintto Lucas is considered a loose cannon… who is out of favor in the government and may have said this to try and grab attention.  I am told that President Correa has a good realtionship with the US Ambassador and also Hilary Clinton so this sounds more like political theatrics than anything substantial.

As to Wikileaks… I have conflicting feelings but do believe this idea will change politics as we know them.  Governments have encouraged whistle blowers in private industry so why as voters should we not be entited to them as well?  Others who wish to harm us can be secretive but perhaps this will help those of us who believe in open democracy to find a way to defend ourselves and without trampling rights under the guise of “national security”.  I hope so.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

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There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

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Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

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Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Investing Terror Ahead?


Many events… weakness in Wall Street… concerns of another Euro debt crisis… recent US dollar Treasury auctions… shows that there is terror in investing markets.

msci-chart

The MSCI World Stock Market chart from Bloomberg.com reflects the feeling of terror as it has fallen so much in November that it has given up all profits from the year of 2011.

See below how to save 10% on any of our courses only today.

Yet there is even more potential for terror… the risk of a Euro collapse… the potential dollar disintegration as China and Russia drop the use of the greenback in their inter trade and the rising gloom of another theater of war in the Pacific.

In fact there is enough terror that we could see a stampede… that will create some horrible slide of something.

The question is what? Knowing the answer is the difference between extra profit and ruin.

Major investors are acting as if they believe in inflation. On Oct. 25, 2010 the U.S. Treasury sold $10 billion of five-year TIPS at a negative yield. This was the first time investors were willing to receive negative returns at a Treasury bond auction.

TIPS are inflation protected bonds. The interest rates are inflation adjusted.

November 4, 2010 the U.S. Treasury sold $10 billion more 10-year TIPS bonds at a record low yield of 0.409% after the previous low interest rate of 1.019% was set at a Sept. 2, 2010 auction.

This suggests that investors have confidence the Fed will win the battle against deflation, and create  inflation.  This is likely to cause a falling US dollar.

However if this inflation is going to take time to rise… it is really urgent to get your strategy and timing correct.

Jyske Global Asset Managers (JGAM) decided to keep their portfolios unchanged except for minor adjustments. They are underweight bonds and overweight equities but have increased protection on their leverage (borrowed US dollars) with a stop-loss.  This protection was executed on 12 November causing the loan mix to move from 100% US dollars to 50% US dollar and 50% euro.

This move was made because Jyske had a protective Stop Loss on their dollar loans so that Stop Loss was executed on the 12th of November at 1.3558. The renewed turmoil in the eurozone had spooked investors and there was a lot of volatility in the Foreign Exchange market.

As the EUR/USD cross rate is the most traded currency pair in the market there was extra volatility in this pair.

JGAM still believed in a weaker US dollar but respected their defined stop loss.

However on November 25th JGAM changed their loan mix in our leveraged portfolio back to a 100% US dollar loan.

JGAM believes the market has overreacted to the euro crisis caused by Ireland and the North Korean attack on a South Korean island.  They expect the market will soon again focus on the fiscal and monetary policies in the US. Especially, we view the aggressive US monetary policy to be a long-term weakening force on the USD.

JGAM anticipated the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing on the second quarter of 2010. They believe that much of the liquidity pumped into the system by the Fed will continue seeking more risky assets than almost zero-yielding bonds. Therefore, JGAM expects money flow out of the U.S. – causing downward pressure on the US dollar – and into global equities, corporate bonds, emerging markets and commodities, creating an on-going upward pressure on these asset prices including related currencies.

This means that money will flow away from the euro and dollar into emerging markets.

Jyske sees the potential for a significant negative scenario in a re-emerging euro crisis. Recently, they have seen a weakening of the euro and a widening of yield spreads between the German Bund and peripheral eurozone bonds.

The new RISK

I expect Jyske is now also watching Asia more closely.

I was about to expand my Asian coverage into Taiwan and Thailand based on this… but fate… and Jyske perhaps saved me.  My adviser warned that the two funds I had selected were at 52 week highs.

I had selected those two markets as they are both considered good value markets by Keppler but these high point meant I wanted to investigate further.  So I held back and then needed to visit my mom in Oregon where Merri and I focused on her… not our portfolio.

In the time we were away North Korea revealed more nuclear development and started lobbing shells at South Korea. The US has sent an aircraft carrier that way.

This means I’ll wait and watch Asia a bit.  This also reinforces other investments I recently made in Latin America… mainly in Brazil.

Here are three tips for investing in times of terror.

First, do not leverage heavily.

Second, do not speculate expecting a fast turn.  Look for special values created by the terror. For example if the Taiwanese share market tanks… because of  Korean tensions, it is already a good value market.  It could become a spectacular value.   We’ll see in an upcoming message how in terms of purchasing power parity, Taiwan has not passed Japan in per capita spending power.

Third, diversify and look for inflationary fighters that hold up during deflation.

Examples?

There are three ways that investors are being screwed.

Inflation is ruining the purchasing power of our wealth.

Western banks are keeping the money they have and the cheap money that the government gives them.  They invest it for more and keep the profits.  With this cheap government money they do not need deposits so traditional safe investments (dollar and euro bonds and CDS) don’t earn enough to protect against inflation.

Trading down keeps inflation down statistically… but means that your income and savings really buy much less.

Yet you have to take great care when you enter emerging markets.  For example I am taking the RIC out of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China).

First during a panic stampede because BRIC has been a popular theme, the herds might stampeded there.

BRIC may be a concept that too many investors are talking about now. India however is a poor value market (according to Keppler Asset Management) and has always been volatile.  China is neutral value but borders Korea.

Russia carries a law and order risk.

My Jyske advisor just sent me this note.  Gary I recommend that you keep out of Russia. Very shortly you shall sign a form, when trading in Russia, where you have all risk in regard to the custodian in Russia, if they make any kind of fraud.

I can find ishares investing in Thailand and Taiwan, quoted in the US. These are Index funds but at 52 week highs.

I am a little nervous for the eastern European markets. Poland and the Czech real estate market are still funded in CHF and EURO. There have not been focus on that for a while, but the problem is not solved yet, so be careful with these markets.

Recently I took profits and reduced my position in Turkey.  I transferred the profits into two shares added to my portfolio…   Ishares Latin America  (focused mainly in Brazil) and  Suntec Reit which invests in Singapore real estate.  I wrote about Suntec last month in the article Invest in Turmoil.

The leverage in my portfolio remained 100% in US dollars through this turmoil.

Canadians and non US investors can learn about how to buy these through Jysle Bank Private Bank from Rene Mathys at mathys@jbpb.dk

Professional US investors (portfolios over $1 million) can also buy these shares via JGAM.

US investors with smaller portfolios can invest in managed accounts.

To learn the portfolio mix and leverage of these accounts contact Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Gary

Here is how to save 10% on any of our courses only today.

We provide many online courses and seminars. Subscribe to any before 3am East coast time November 27th and we’ll knock 10% off the fee.

The shopping cart will show the entire price but we’ll process these orders manually and charge 10% less.

See our services below.

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

International Business Made EZ – Syllabus


International Business Made EZ (IBEZ) Syllabus.

IBEZ is a 1.5 day course on how to start a micro business for extra income. The course is based on Merri’s and my experience of what we have done and are doing now with our own business run from our home with over 20,000 clients in dozens of countries.

See the International Business Made EZ Syllabus below.

Our International business seminars evolve with the global economy so each is updated… based on the evolution of our own business

Join us for our international business seminars “International Business Made EZ 2011″.

Feb.  12-13  2011  Mt. Dora Florida

June 25-16 2011  Jefferson, North Carolina

October 8-9   Jefferson, North Carolina

Enroll here. $499.

Enroll here for two. $749.

See below how to attend all our 2011 International Investing seminars FREE

When you enroll in an IBEZ seminar we email a download of the previous seminar so you immediately gain the basics that apply to each seminar and will be able to pick up on the new economic conditions and where to invest.

The syllabus below was for our  Jefferson, North Carolina,  October 8 to 9, 2011 seminar.

Session #1: Why having an international micro business is easier than ever before.

Session #2: What’s Next? Trading down.  How the next imagination era affects business opportunity now.  How business will shift to the lower end and how small businesses can benefit from niche markets.

Session #3: Other forces affecting business economics.  How to get started. How to find your idea for a PIEC (Personal Income Earning Corridor). How to and & why you should start small.

Session #4: Seven ways to have a business with your idea.  Buy it – build it – sell it –  picture it – wrote about it – teach it – manage it.

Session #5: The business evolutionary process. How to grow your business in a risk free, low stress way.

Session #6:  How to use modern technology to start global micro businesses with minimal investments of time and capital

Session #7: “Seven Ps”  (Problem, Person, Place, Prospecting, Product, Promise, Presentation  Product)  How to zero in on key word phrases.

Session #8: How to figure out the problem your business will solve.

Session #9: How to figure out who are the people who have the problem.

Session #10: How to create the profitable product.

Session #11: How to figure our the place where your businesses people are.

Session #12: How to prospect for your clients.

Session #13: How to create a promise to attract your client.

Session #14: How to develop a presentation that moves your client to action.

Session #15: How to use the internet. How to set up. How to use it to prospect and to sell products. How to use the internet to create products. How to get good Google rankings.  We share in this session how we have learned to use Pay Per Click and Search Engine Optimization.  Take a look at one week of our recent message headlines.

Headline… “Global Investment Income”

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ranked #1 at Google.

“Ecuador Police Unrest”… ranked…

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ranked #3   “Extra Global Income” ranked…

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#2 and “Mindo Real Estate” ranked…  #1, #2, #3, #4 and #5!

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Plus this session look at how to build your client list.  This chart from our auto responding company Mail Chimp shows how our list grows about 800 new addresses a month.

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Session #16: How to turn words into cash.

Session #17: How & why markets are shifting from materialistic needs to emotional needs.

Session #18: Cashing in on markets in love-friendship-control-freedom-tradition-change-big answers-recognition and care.

Session #19: How to use the power of authenticity.

Session #20: How to develop the correct legal structures for asset protection and tax efficiency.

Session #21: There is a shift of emphasis from GDP to GWB  (General Wellness Barometer Happiness Factor).  Business will operate with more passion.
We’ll see how to turn these shifts into new opportunities for investment and internet business in seven areas:

Currency Distortions
Value Markets
Emerging Markets
Wellness
Water and Alternate Energy
Truth & Cohesion
Ecuador and Smalltown USA Real Estate

I call these seven areas the Magnificent Seven… these are the places where I am looking for opportunity and focusing our business efforts now.

This has really paid off:

Here is a recent ranking of just one of our five websites.

internet-success

This ranking from Alexa.com shows how our site is in the top 16,000 web sites in America, top 8,000 in Canada and top 500 in Ecuador.  There is more.  The recession caused our internet business to grow.

Our seminar helps you learn how to use the same tactics we do… with a micro business.

Our sales doubled during the recession.  Our list of readers increased over 100%.  Since the economy picked up our business growth has slowed but business is still growing. This is how good, value oriented business grow by the way…. jumping up in bad times and remaining steady when things are good. The seminar explains why this business model that seems upside down works best.

Join us for our international investing  seminars “International Business Made EZ 2011″.

Feb.  11-12  2011  Mt. Dora Florida

June 24-25 2011  Jefferson, North Carolina

October 7-8  Jefferson, North Carolina

Previous course delegates have included business people, brokers and professionals, doctors, dentists, lawyers, retirees, couples wanting to get into international business together, insurance agents and marketers who want to enhance their wealth and security through international investments.

Enroll here for two. $749.

Attend both International Investing Made EZ & International Business Made EZ seminars (Save $249 or $499 for two) on Friday Saturday and Sunday.

See International Investing Made EZ Friday and Saturday morning.

Enroll here. $749. Save $249.

Enroll in both seminars for two. $999. Save $499.

See how to attend both courses Free with International Club 2011 Membership  Enroll here

See more details about our International business seminars here.