Tag Archive | "Inflation"

Inflation Trivia


1983, Bryant Pond, Maine.  There was a twist… a spark… a call and then a huge piece of history was gone. 

A huge change in your life began.

You may have barely noticed it.

Susan Glines became the last switchboard operator for a hand-crank phone when that Maine telephone exchange was converted to an automatic exchange.

telephone

Before the advent of automatic telephone exchanges, in the 1970s, an operator’s assistance was required for almost all telephone calls.  Callers did not dial direct but called an operator who connected a cord to the proper circuit.

The history of hand-crank phone system’s demise is a touch of the trivia with a lesson derived from my research into innovation and inflation.

inflation

Here are some rough thoughts about inflation.  I use the word “rough” because few economic indicators that are bandied about are so politically charged and so influenced and distorted by politicians.

We could say, “There are lies, damn lies, statistics and even worse, numbers on inflation”.

War causes inflation.  This is easy to see in the chart above from the Wall Street Journal blog “A brief history of US inflation since 1775” (1).  This is a graphic display of the relationship between war and inflation.

The chart above shows the inflation spikes in 1865 (end of War Between the States),  the spike in 1917 (end of Great War) and 1945 (end of WWII).

Yet my research was looking at inflation in an entirely different way.

My study had nothing to do with war, but began with the question, “how does the mass introduction of innovation affect inflation?

I looked at the spread of US railway lines.  In 1850, there were 9000 miles of railway track in use.  By 1860 the mileage had risen to 30,000 and the transcontinental line (a really big innovation) was completed in 1869.

The transcontinental railway line was being built during the war and the pace quickened at the war’s end.  In 1869 the final spike was driven at  Promontory, Utah.   The impact was immediate and dramatic. Travel time between America’s east and west coasts was reduced from months to less than a week.

Was that 1865 inflation caused by the war, or the rail innovation, or both?

The Model T Ford was introduced in 1908 and over the next 20 years 15 million of them rolled off the production line.  That’s another huge innovation.  Again we can see the spike in 1918… but how much was innovation? How much war?

The spread of general aviation has to be a huge innovation.  This began around 1946, but in October 1958 the Boeing 707 entered service with Pan American.  The 707 is credited with ushering in the Jet Age with a huge commercial success.  We can see a little inflation spike around this time.

What other big innovation began in the 1970s?   The global connection of automatic telephone exchanges started around 1970.

Prior to automatic telephone exchanges a cross-country US call might take as long as 2 hours to request and schedule in cities that used manual switchboards for toll calls.

Overseas calls could take days to connect.  I recall that frustration when working in Hong Kong. It often took days to get a call through to the US.

Yet the next big inflation run up did not begin until 1974 (last through 1982).   What changed?

Was it that we needed another war?  Perhaps.  The cold war between the West and East certainly created a lot of defense spending and as you’ll see in the chart below from tradingeconomics.com (2) ran up some huge extra federal debt.

Then in we saw the widespread roll out of the Internet by 2004 and the mobile phone revolution begin in 2007.

Yet there has been no inflation spike.  How come?

Could it be to low interest rates and a huge build up of Federal debt.

When we look at this chart below, showing federal debt in relationship to gross domestic product, we see the connection between war and a federal debt build up.  That debt creates inflation which essentially wipes out a chunk of the debt as its paid back in devalued dollars.

federal debt

US federal debt is almost back to levels created by WWII.  This is a stunning fact!

We can see, from the next chart, that beginning in 2008, the debt buildup began without a major war, unless we consider the war on terror as another war.

 

federal debt

There is no precedent to this level of non war related debt.  The study did not look into city, county, state debt and Federal guarantees  (such as for pensions, insurance, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, mortgage guarantees, etc)  either.   I suspect this darkens the inflation picture substantially.

federal debt

This research shows that the relationship between war, innovation, federal debt and inflation is murky and hard to pin down.

What the study does show is that there is a relationship between them all.

Since 1985 we have had all the factors of inflation… huge innovation, accelerated defense spending (war on drugs, terrorism, in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and God knows where else) and a huge Federal debt build up.

There has been no inflation… statistically speaking.

Innovation can change the free market and increase productivity, but governments always seem to soak up this extra production… and a bit more and take more to provide less.

Government’s can interfere, influence and defer free market action on the basics of supply and demand, but history suggests that free market forces always, eventually play out.

If this is true… expect inflation.   Prepare for it because it is here, has been here (damn the statistics) and will cause the purchasing power of the US dollar to fall.

Gary

Earn & Do Good

Live anywhere.  Earn everywhere. Make a difference.

Here’s an old idea that offers profits in a new and different way.   This is an idea that’s good for a community you choose as well as those involved… and it can generate $11,835 a month of profit… or maybe even more.

This report shares this new “old idea”, how to gain freedom, live where you chose, be an important part of your community, have an outstanding income and do some good.

Learn how to earn high income in your own back yard.   Choose where you want that back yard to be.

You can create a lifestyle that you previously could only dream.

Gain 7 powerful benefits when you choose to become involved:

Benefit #1: Freedom.   You set your own hours.  You work when you want to, not  when you are told.   Working at home eliminates a commute unless you count the 8 seconds it takes to walk from the bedroom to your office.   You can even work in your pajamas.  One magazine publisher who helped develop this program says that this is one of his favorite benefits.  You don’t have to ask permission to take time off to attend your children’s sporting events, concerts, plays or any other event.  You have greater control over your earnings and your destiny.  If you want to earn more, give yourself a raise by increasing your revenue.  When you work hard, you are working hard for your benefit and wealth not someone else’s.  Being able to fit your business to circumstances can sometimes be the most important benefit of all.  A small niche publisher had just started their magazine when their daughter was diagnosed with bone cancer.   During their daughter’s hospitalization they were able to be there 24/7… yet continue to build the business. That publisher told me… “This is one of the BEST reasons for owning this type of business, the freedom to work from the hospital room on your laptop and be there when your child needs you the most”.

In another case a small area publisher had started a magazine and was then diagnosed with cancer.  In her darkest hours she was able to continue publishing. See why below.

#2:  You become part of the solution, not part of the problem.  There is so much bad news now all about events we are powerless to change or stop. Helping build a better positive community is something we can actually do.   Small businesses are the lifeblood of our economy and having a successful small business helps develop strong community economics.

#3:  Prestige (Near Celebrity Status).  One writer who uses this system said: We get invited to everything because people want our magazine to review their events.  Additionally, we are very well known around town.  You have PRESS Credentials.  Some big venues (like NASCAR) require official credentials which you can get by calling the press office.  Other smaller venues you can create your own “PRESS” badge and it usually gets you “behind the scenes” access.  Not to mention, everyone wants to talk to the press so they can end up in the magazine.

One publisher wrote: Being part of the press also (usually) gets you free admission into most events.  Worst case scenario, you trade/barter an ad to gain admission.  We are going to an event today called the “Big Sip”.  Not only did we get free tickets, we got free VIP tickets which gets us into the show early and gives us access to things non-VIP ticket holders will not have access to.

#4:  Service  to the Community.   You can even be philanthropic.  One of the magazines using this system chose two non-profit organizations to support.  One of the things non-profits need is press coverage and advertising.   They give about $10,000 worth of advertising a year to their non-profits and various other groups to help them get the exposure they need.  The reader told us that he gets raves about how his magazine and the content they publish really shines a positive light on the community.  He wrote: We give a voice organizations that normally wouldn’t have one.  We raise awareness to programs being hosted by the myriad of organizations here in town that most people would normally never hear of.  

Save lives.  In one issue of a hyper local magazine, there was a story about a little boy who was struggling with a rare disease that caused life-threatening seizures.  One day, while his mom was out shopping, the little boy had a seizure so she rushed him to the hospital.  She called ahead and the nurse met her at the emergency room. 

As it happened, the nurse had read the article in the magazine (which someone had brought to the nurse’s lounge) and she recognized the little boy from the article. 

Since she knew immediately what was wrong with him, no time was wasted and he was treated quickly.  The magazine publishers were told that this particular seizure was especially bad and that the article probably saved his life.  

This type of special benefit may not happen everyday, but once in a lifetime is good enough.

#5:  You are in the know.  One publisher said: Because we are part of the press, we get a tremendous amount of Press Releases e-mailed to us on a daily basis.  We are usually the first to know about something new going on in town.  If we aren’t the first, we are always included.  And, as part of the research we do for articles, we tend to uncover information people don’t know or have forgotten about.   You can have big-picture perspective without going broke.

#6: You gain respect.  Publishers are the people who bring the information to the rest of the world in an information era.  They are the ones who affect change and because of this, have a tremendous amount of power.  For this reason, people like to say they “know the publisher” and will extend all sorts of courtesies to get to know the publisher.

#7: Tremendous tax benefits.  Many after tax expenditures become tax deductible business expenses. Sometimes you can eliminate federal and state tax altogether.

Why does small niche publishing offers such great potential.

Sam Buffet… or is it Warren Walton?  Hyper local publishing is based on three cherished beliefs that Sam Walton and Warren Buffet shared.

sam buffet

Forbes Magazine listed the 10 wealthiest Americans in an article entitled “The Faces Of Wealth in America”.  Both Buffet and the Walton family were there.

sam buffet

Imagine combining the wealth Walton created with that of Warren Buffet.  You get 150.1 billions dollars… far more than the wealth created by Bill Gates and any other three of the top ten combined… by just these two men.

Sam Buffet and Warren Walton!  What a combination.

So I ask, “Whose footsteps would you like to follow?”

Buffet and Walton shared several cherished business beliefs that you can gain from a special writing and publishing business that is at its very beginning stage.

Cherished Belief #1: Small is Beautiful.  Both Sam Walton (Bentonville, Arkansas) and Warren Buffet (Omaha, Nebraska) chose America’s heartland away from the big cities as their homes.  What’s more Walton chose to do business in these small places as well… building the largest retail operation in the world almost entirely in small towns.

Warren Buffet believes that potential in small towns offers special value.  He believes this so strongly that he has been buying newspapers in small towns.

Over the last few years Buffet’s company, Berkshire Hathaway purchased 63 small and mid-sized daily and weekly newspapers throughout the United States.

He plans to buy more and says: “I like buying individual papers at the right prices.” 

Buffet stated that Berkshire is not buying big newspapers or more newspaper shares.  He is sticking with small publications because he believes in the value of local communities.

Cherished Belief #2:  Community Orientation.

Buffet is not buying big publications but is grabbing up small community focused publications.

His bet is that publications focused on local communities can withstand the shift of readers and advertisers to the Internet.

The individual papers can be really small as 10,000 circulation with tiny staffs.

He said no one has stopped reading “half-way through a story that was about them or their neighbors.”

He also noted, “Berkshire buys for keeps. I’d rather buy newspapers myself directly,” and is seeking papers that publish in cities and towns with a “Sense of  Community.”

From this vision Wal Mart remains committed not just to expanding the business but to improving the communities.

You can enjoy all these benefits through hyper local publishing because small communities can be places, ideas or ideas within places.

For example Burnie Miller, one publisher who attended a Writer’s Camp that Merri and I conducted, founded Healthtrucker.com

There are many magazines about trucking and for truckers, but Healthtrucker.com is just about trucker health and wellness.  Burnie’s business shares his  adventures losing weight, driving truck, and staying healthy on the road.

The factor that makes publications like this successful are common interests.  Common interest can be focused on a geographical area or a niche idea that targets a niche of a larger market. For example the market for truckers is quite large, but trackers that look after their health is a much smaller niche.   One benefit of this type of publishing is it surrounds you with people who have a common interest, so your readers are like minded souls.

Cherished Belief #3:  Seek Good Value.

Sam Walton built one of the largest fortunes in the world… with the simple goals of providing great value and great customer service.  Warren Buffett’s belief is that the essence of value investing is buying stocks at less than their intrinsic value.   The discount is called the “Margin of Safety”.

Both Buffet and Walton shared a vision that small towns… ignored by the mainstream offered good value.  You tap into extra profit potential as a SNAP publisher who helps a small community.

Knowing BOTH successful niche magazine publishers and internet marketing geniuses is important for a reason that Buffet outlined to his publishers when he purchased their papers.  Buffet believes that small newspapers will change and that they serve an important purpose.  He said, “Papers must rethink the industry’s initial response to the Internet as focus on continuing to maintain a strong sense of community“.

His bet is that publications focused on local communities can withstand the shift of readers and advertisers to the Internet.  Buffet has said that giving news away free online is “unsustainable” and has sought papers that publish in cities and towns with a “sense of community.

The need for a sense of community is greater than ever before.   Community creates trust.  As the world has expanded on big is better,  the public has lost trust.  We no longer trust big business, big government, big hospitals, big banks, big publications etc.  Yet publications are of little value if they do not have the reader’s trust.   Internet publishing on the big scale has reduced trust.  Anyone can say anything on the internet and thus internet information is highly suspect.   Publishers who use a small niche to create trust have an advantage.

To begin this introduction let me add one more point and outline the value of what I am about to offer.  One model of publishing in the course shows how to make up to $11,835 a month… or more for a fully guaranteed investment of just $299.  That’s value… plain and simple.

I already knew the person I call the Warren Buffet of the internet… my webmaster, David Cross.

david-cross-image tags:"2012-4-21"

David has an unparalleled, hands-on marketing experience spanning 25 years in 22 countries for companies and charities large and small. He’s guided many companies and individuals to success in business and helped them achieve their marketing goals, both online and offline.   He started working with the internet from the getgo and Merri and I have been lucky that he helped start my website in the 1990s.

He was also Senior Internet Consultant to Agora Inc. in Baltimore, MD.  David worked closely with Agora’s publishers and marketers and over an 8-year period helped to propel Agora’s online revenues to over $300 Million.

So half of Buffet’s value equation was there.

Merri’s and my lives have been involved in the second half of this equation.

Merri’s first publishing career was as executive editor of Gulfshore Life.  Gulfshore Life magazine began in 1970 and not long after Merri became executive editor.  The niche was Southwest Florida’s Gulf Coast, from Fort Myers and Cape Coral down to Naples and Marco Island.  The magazine covered local personalities and pursuits, from arts and entertainment to fashion, real estate and earned many awards for writing, design and publishing excellence, including recognition as Best Overall Magazine two years in a row from the Florida Magazine Association.

While Merri was editor she was well paid for the exciting privilege of addressing the leading edge of important issues.

Merri attacked pollution in Naples Bay with an “Our Water Dilemma.” story in 1977, and was writing about computers before they became  mainstream. One of her stories was  “Don’t let the word ‘computer’ frighten you”.

She enjoyed putting together travel stories and was invited to many places including Haiti, St.Kitts and many other exotic Caribbean ventures and to the record-breaking opening tour of the “Treasures of  Tutankhamun”.  Her ventures through the years in Haiti working with the Mellon family with leprosy changed her life forever.  She had many experiences there and wrote articles and encouraged the lepers to utilize their artistic talents through weaving and painting.  Even today, when I ask her about that period of her life (onstage or off), she always breaks into tears remembering the suffering of those people.

Merri

Merri with the artist the late Robert Rauschenberg

She was able to meet many famous people like author John D. MacDonald, Robert Rauschenberg, and Lilly Pulitzer and many others.  She became acquainted with the best selling English authoress, P.D. James, who shared many of her writing secrets which became a major influence in Merri’s writing life.

These personal examples show that a small area publishing business can help you immerse your lifestyle with like minded souls and people who have common interest from all walks of life.

Of course, there is capital gain potential as well.

The major focus of this report looks at how to earn a good income, in some instances, niche magazines can create huge capital gains.  In the case of Gulfshore Life, when the cost of Naples real estate exploded into the stratosphere, this magazine sold to Curtco, publisher  of Robb Report and several other luxury niche magazines, for a strong eight figure price.  I have been told $23 million though I have not been able to confirm this price.

In another example, Felix Dennis made $250 million on selling a few small niche area magazines.

Felix Dennis, a niche magazine publisher of small niche magazines such as Kung Fu World,  ComputerShopper, PCWorld, Maxim and The Wee sold his US small niche magazines Blender, Maxim and Stuff for a reported $250 million dollars.

That was a really healthy capital gain.

He continued to publish small niche magazines and was publishing more than 50 magazines at his passing in 2013.  Profits in that year were more than $100 million. His estate was estimated at near $1 billion dollars.

Felix did not inherit this either.  His beginnings were modest.  His grandparents raised him in a house with no electricity or indoor bathroom.  He left school at 15 to work as a gravedigger, store-window dresser, sign painter and blues drummer before getting a job as at the small magazine Oz.

He built these humble origins into a fortune that provided him with a garage full of Rolls-Royces and Bentleys, a 16th-century thatched manor on his estate near Stratford-upon-Avon, a house in London, an apartment in Manhattan and houses in Connecticut and on the Caribbean island of Mustique.

What are the odds of getting this rich?

Dennis himself shares the fact that most niche publishers will not make a hundred million dollar capital gains.  He notes that the odds are only 25 chances in a million.  Not as bad as the lottery, but not that encouraging either.

Though it is unlikely that you’ll earn this type of capital gains with a small niche publishing business, I mention this fact because the possibility does exist.

Purpose, income and lifestyle opportunities are the main reasons to be a small niche publisher.  

Dennis for example felt that his passions were more important than the money.  He had a passion for forestry conservation and used his niches to plant a large native broadleaf forest, and found a registered charity The Heart of England Forest Ltd.   Not long before his passing, Dennis planted the millionth tree, an oak sapling, at a special ceremony.

He bequeathed a reported 80% of his fortune to ensure that the project will continue. Over a thousand acres have been planted and will will continue indefinitely with the aim of eventually providing between 10,000 and 20,000 acres, the largest private forest in England opened to the public with educational facilities for schools as well as provide green burial services to the local area.

A more typical example of small niche magazine publishing are Dave and Sherry Johnson who attended one of our Self Publishing courses.  I discovered that Dave and Sherry published a couple of magazines in North Carolina when they enrolled for the course… but what I did not know was the value of what they had developed in publishing small town community magazines.

Dave started as a media marketer and has sold most media including radio, cable television, direct mail, magazine, yellow pages, newspaper and Internet.

He enjoyed great success until times turn sour during the 2007 recession as they did for so many.  Being under the gun, Dave and Sherry lost everything so they moved to Asheboro, North Carolina and started their own magazine which has risen from success to success.

Time and Place

The old adage is to be in the right time and at the right place.  Imagine this timing… 2009 with the US facing a sluggish economy and risking a double dip recession.

The place?   Forbes magazine highlighted Asheboro, North Carolina in 2008 but not in a way you would think.

Forbes’s article was entitled “In Depth: America’s Fastest-Dying Towns” and said:  Asheboro is one of the few places in North Carolina where domestic migration rates fell between 2000 and 2007, from 10.5% to 1.9%. Poverty surged from 15.7% to 26.7% as incomes declined by 9.5%. The city, built on manufacturing and heavy industry for everything from batteries to tires, has yet to find a new niche.

There they were… Dave and Sherry… starting a magazine on a shoestring… (or  perhaps a little less)… in the fourth fastest dying town in the US.  Sherry put it this way…  “Failure was not an option.  We had to make a profit before we published our first edition”.   They did and the magazine rose from success to success.

asheboro

This is the issue they published on their 5th year anniversary of Asheboro Magazine (1).

The Johnson’s hyper local business created enormous freedom as well.

When they fell in love with Ecuador, their move there was supported by a new small area magazine when they created Cuenca Expat Life (2).

snap magazine

When I heard this story and read their magazine I let no moss gather beneath my feet and began testing ways to help subscribers publish their own hyper local publication… profitably… immediately… in just a month or two.

Part of this course shows how to create income with a Small Niche publication.

Here is how we can serve you.  Merri and I have had a long career in publishing.   As mentioned after Merri’s stint as executive editor of Gulfshore Life she then joined me in publishing our newsletters and later producing our daily ezine.  Later we helped a small niche regional magazine, Natural Awakenings, which was on the verge of bankruptcy, turn itself around and become a national publication.

Today Natural Awakenings claims to be growing as they have reached 90 markets in a thriving niche community of over 3.8 million responsive readers.   Each magazine is operated by an independent small niche magazine publisher.

We also worked with a SNAP magazine in Spain that had Latin American potential.

snap

This is an English language magazine in Spain that has South American expansion possibilities.

The owner stated that this magazine is earning around $250,000 a year.

The Sentinella (3) is an English magazine on the Costa del Sol, known as the ‘little mag that fits in your bag’.  It is aimed at expats who have moved abroad for a better life. The Sentinella has been established in Spain for more than seven and a half years. There are now five magazines operating along the Costa del Sol, Costa Tropical and the coast of Almeria.

We have combined all these experiences into a 31 step checklist that can help help you publish your own small niche magazine.

Your own small magazine allows you to put your desire to profit through writing to work.

As an small niche publisher you can publish niche publications dedicated to representing, encouraging and celebrating the community (whether it is a place or an idea) you serve by focusing on the lifestyles, talents, gifts and contributions of the people who are like minded souls.

Our course is designed to show you how to earn as much as $11,835 a month.

Merri and I see hyper local magazines as one of the most important services we have been able to bring to our readers… ever.  This service helps our readers write to sell… to enjoy working with like minded souls and to bring a positive influence to communities.

We tested the market and found that the principles of this type publishing are so powerful that it is possible to achieve success even in the most adverse circumstances.  Take for example the success story that Perla Crosby has achieved in Sanford Florida.

Benny and Perla Crosby used the course to start a magazine dedicated to Sanford Florida, a small charming town on Lake Monroe, the headwaters of the St. John River.    Perla’s magazine MySanford Magazine (4) magazine began with a great success but as it started to develop, disaster struck.

Here is what Benny Crosby wrote about how the course helped  during her hardest of times:

mysanford magazine

Benny & Perla Crosby from an issue of Mysandfordmagazine.

I might add that my wife Perla, even during some dark moments during two cancer surgeries was able to continue her focus on getting the latest issue of her magazine out on time.  Her advertisers have continued to increase and I am pleased to announce that the Chamber of Commerce, The Orlando Sanford Airport Authority and National Airlines are having an event on March 29th, 2016 in Sanford (wish you both could be here) to recognize Perla and the magazine and to announce that “My Sanford Magazine” has been adopted as the official seat back magazine for the airline.

It will be available on all National airlines flights out of Sanford to Puerto Rico and British Columbia.  I thought you might be proud to know that you both have contributed to Perla’s success and we wanted to share this exciting news with you.

mysanford magazine

Read MYSANFORDMAGAZINE below.

You can earn this type of income by building a hyper local publication focused on what you love.

Hyper local does not have to focus on a place.  It can zero in on a hobby, sport, profession or common interest.  What do you love?  Rare cars?  You can make a fortune publishing to sell in the genre you love.  Do you prefer fine art?   Or do you love beautiful jewelry, coins, gems, real estate, furs, model railways, dolls, scientific equipment, war memorabilia, old and rare books, or whatever?

Do you prefer social subjects rather than objects?  Are you concerned with the environmental problems, with crimes, war, poverty?  Would you like to help wipe them out?  Each of these offers opportunity in publishing.

Are you a golfer?  Do you love to travel?  Why not make the kinds of money I’ve just mentioned publishing reports about golf courses all over the world?

Would you like to help the world be a more spiritual place, help people get along better together?  You can do something good for the world, increase your income in the process and live wherever you please!   You can make a fortune by publishing information that sells products and services that are interesting to you.

You can publish about almost anything that interests you.

Take the small area magazine Rebel Riders… “because all of us have a little renegade in us”, a perfect example of how focused on a passion one can be.

snap mag

This magazine is about closely focused as a publication can get… not just for riders, but for rebel riders… in Central Florida.   Advertisers include three full pages from attorneys… “Been in an accident – Call us”.  There are many biking events and bike fests… meets and swaps advertised.  Dozens of bars and restaurants that cater to bikers have ads.  Several motorcycle dealers, sales, repairs and custom cycle shops.  American Legion Post 35 (“For God and Country”) has an ad.  There is a full page for Twisted Tea (“True Iced Tea taste”), a couple of insurance agencies, one financial planner and Theater X (“adult novelties and DVDs”).

Small area publishing can also help you travel, even have an international lifestyle so you can live anywhere and still earn everywhere.  This is especially valuable if you love to travel.  For example, one shrewd publisher realized that Panama was a great place to live and published information on Panama that sold Panama real estate seminars.

Other publishers reaped rich rewards selling information on their own country.  Merri and I, for example, lived in Europe for years, then fell in love with Ecuador for 15 years.  We earned by publishing our experiences there.

Now in our 70s, we live in Smalltown USA.  We love the peace and quiet, are closer to my mom, our children and grandchildren.  We still write (and publish) about what we love and are doing!   In each phase of our lives, the idea of tight focus has allowed us to move and live where we desired.

Imagine what this type of business means if you love to travel.  Part of every trip you take can be tax deductible!  You can honestly write off every trip that is related to your publishing business.  Every journey can become a research oriented adventure and a tax deductible event

Many benefits come in the form of reduced tax.  As a publisher, you’ll have one of the most respected and tax protected businesses in the country.  Other benefits come in the form of legal protection.  Publishers are protected by the U.S. constitution.  You do not need a license to publish.  There is no government watchdog nor do you have bureaucratic red tape involved in publishing.  The biggest benefits are the freedom, the independence to work wherever you choose in any field you desire.

The 2018 tax law means that you can create a publishing-to-sell business where you only pay tax on 80% of your income.

We created an entire system to help our readers have their own publish to sell business.  This system is unique because my wife, Merri, and I are unique.  We started our publishing business together.  Since we’re almost recluses, we decided to do the whole business by ourselves.  We began working at home.  Today, though we have tens of thousands of readers and have made millions, we still work at home and do not employ a single person.  When we switched to online publishing to sell, we added one business partner, our webmaster, who created and runs our website.  You’ll can learn how to do this in the course I am about to introduce.

May I introduce you to our course, “SELF-FULFILLED – How to Be a Publisher to Sell”.

The course teaches all you need to know on how to start and run your own publishing-to-sell business by yourself.   The first lessons in the course answers your questions and get you started!

This course can put you well on your way to publishing to sell and give you the freedom to live wherever you choose!  It covers numerous income producing secrets:

Secret #1:  How to gain 1,000% returns.  See why some of the wealthiest families in the world today come from publishing.  Learn how margins can be so incredible that few would believe them.  This online course contains many case studies.  Case Study #3 for example shows one publisher who sold an idea delivered on one photocopied page.  His cost was only three cents, his selling price $12.50!

Secret #2:  How to create and market your product or find products to sell.  Learn 11 steps in creating the perfect product.  Understand how to review ideas, test focus, aim at markets.  See why you don’t have to write anything if you don’t want to!  Learn where and how to get your data and get others to write for you almost FREE.

For example, the course shows how one friend, before the Internet, never wanted to write and decided instead to publish on cassette tape.  He later switched to webinars.  He started part time and built a career that brought in millions and brought him to know some of the most interesting people.  Now of course publishers who do not want to write can use the internet.

Learn how marketing is the key to successful publishing and how to turn pennies into dollars with good marketing focus.  Gain samples of winning marketing pieces.  Learn 21 frequently committed marketing blunders and what to do about each.

You’ll learn how to turn advertising dollars into a fortune.  How to create your own ads.  When to use classifieds, space ads, direct mail or word of mouth.  See how to build a PR list and get thousands of dollars in free publicity.  I share my most secret results on recent mailings so you will know why sometimes you sell more units of a publication at $49 instead of $29.  I show how one couple used ads about retirement to supplement their retirement income and get free trips all over the world.

Secret #3: When to print, how to print and when to go online only.  How to print and fulfill.  Learn how to cut your printing bill in half by asking for quotes differently.  Learn tricks of the trade, how to get the best quality at the lowest price, why to avoid the biggest printer in town and why to avoid the franchise printers.

Secret #4: How to compute and use the Internet.  With an inexpensive computer, you can easily run a business from home and still have tons of time left over-even if you are computer illiterate.  Merri and I have proven this!  The secrets in the course include a step-by-step approach on what to do.   Our partner, the internet expert includes what you need to know for online publishing.

The course contains information on how to use computers and the Internet for your publishing business.  For example you will learn how I have eliminated hundreds of thousands of dollars of printing and postage by switching all of my business onto the net.

We unlock all the secrets of publishing so you can have increased lasting income and reduced taxation.  This course is perfect for those with great computer skills and can help you learn how to focus these skills into a profitable publishing business.

See how when we reached retirement age, we slowed down our self publishing business but still earned $2,404725.98, tax free, over the next ten years.

However, the course also helps computer illiterates like myself and shows how to get your computer work done with no upfront cost.

I have created this course in an easy to understand style.  Everything is explained what to do in vivid detail.  We share all, how we have done it ourselves.  The course is full of publishing ideas and case studies.  You’ll learn about a pilot who published a book on the best airport cafes.  All his flying became tax deductible!

You’ll see how one couple who loved an island wrote a guide on the place and made enough to buy a home on the beach there.

Another made millions with one simple legal idea.

I give names, resources and addresses of contacts in marketing, printing, plus attorneys, accountants, Internet whiz kids who can give help.

This course is not theoretical.  It describes on a step-by-step basis, how Merri and I built a million dollar international business in just 7 years and how you can do the same.

The course is designed so you can get your own publishing-to-sell business going, full or part time right away.  I’ll explain how and why by sharing one other amazing experience that makes this special offer available for you now so you can have the course for pennies on the dollar.

I have previously exposed this idea only to my readers and never to the general public.  We conducted a course charging $2,000.  Here are raves from delegates who have used our course.

For example, one delegate, a publisher from California said:  “Your publishing course is outstanding! Just two hours of study on Sunday alone were worth more than the price.”

An engineer from Ohio wrote, “Basically, I learned how to be a publisher, especially the selling and marketing implications. The course is absolutely worth the cost!”

A retired railway worker from Michigan said, “Your course opened my eyes to the merits, profits, and prestige of becoming a publisher, particularly the idea of publishing in Canada for distribution in the U.S. (for total tax protection).” An employed couple from New York wrote, “We found the course interesting and informative. We were inspired to start work on a booklet. When we came down, we had no idea on what to publish.” And an attorney from Germany stated, “What I like most is that it is a nuts and bolts course-not pie in the sky.” While a business woman from Atlanta exclaimed, “It was great going through your steps, being 100% honest without fear of giving trade secrets since you have paid the price (to gain this knowledge).”

Merri and I have been overwhelmed by how much the course helped so we conducted another course and recorded it.  We then reproduced it in written form so it can be delivered entirely online at a huge reduction.  Though many readers have paid up to $2,000 for this course, you can start for only $299.

Here are some of the lessons you will learn in the online course:

Lesson #1:  A Day in the Life of a Publisher.  See how you can start with only a very small amount of money, work as little as four hours a day (if you are operating full time) even less if you start part time. Learn how two of my publishing friends, one an M.D.-the other a pilot ran their own money letters.  This gave them incredible tax protection, took them on many free, exotic trips, widened their perspective and field of friendships, helped them keep the money they were making in their fields and gave them a backup business that they loved for retirement.

Lesson #2:  How to Create Your Product.  Learn 11 steps in creating the perfect product.  Understand how to review ideas, test focus, aim at markets. See why you don’t have to write anything if you don’t want to!  Learn where and how to get your data and get others to write for you almost FREE.

Lesson #3:  How to Choose Your Format.  Some ideas are timeless and can be sold in a book for years on end.  Others are better in a magazine, newsletter or other periodic publication. Some products can just be lists, simple one page photocopied ideas or names and addresses. Understand when to print, record (on audio or video) and when to transfer through the Internet. Learn how to choose the format that suits you, full or part time.

Lesson #4:  How to Publish to Sell.  Learn how marketing is the key to successful publishing and how to turn pennies into dollars with good marketing focus.  Gain samples of winning marketing pieces.  Learn 21 frequently committed marketing mistakes and what to do about each. Know where and when to advertise (such as never near Easter-Christmas is OK).

You’ll learn how to turn a few advertising dollars into a fortune.  How to write or have ads written.  When to use classifieds, space ads, direct mail or word of mouth.  See how to build a PR list and get thousands of Dollars in free publicity.  Learn the tricks of the Internet to easily focus and capture a market there.

Lesson #5:  If You Print-How to Print?  Did you know that you can reduce your printing bill by half just asking for a job in the right way?  Learn all the tricks of the trade, how to get the best quality at the lowest price, why to avoid the biggest printer in town and why to avoid the franchise printers.  Learn how to choose the right graphics, correct paper, envelope, style, letter fonts.  When on demand printing is best.  Every Secret is included.

Lesson #6:  How to Fulfill.  This session is a practical guide on how to administer your business.  How to set up a computerized fulfilment system, get local families to do all your work for you and run your business (if you wish) from your home.  Learn how and why to use low and variable overheads, yet give one day turn-around delivery.  Learn when to choose delivery services, to fulfill yourself or build your own system…or when to simply fulfill via the Internet.

Lesson #7:  How to Finance.  Learn all you’ll need about the financial end, of the business, how to control physical or online inventory, keep overheads down, check ad results, get 30 day free credit and stay on top of your business.  Learn 11 hazards to avoid and tricks to stay profitable without a daily accountant.  The course and manual contain all these secrets and more.  The computer/internet workshop personalizes the knowledge so you can get started.

Who is This Course For?

This course is for those who would like their own publishing business for fun and profit but also helps business people, brokers and professionals, insurance agents and marketers who want to enhance their existing business or build a second source of income.

Publishing can be used to shift the cost of marketing into a profit center.  If you want your own full or part time publishing business, or want to build your existing business through publishing you should sign up for this course right now with a special pennies on the dollar offer.

This course is for individuals and couples.  You can order the course but your entire immediate family has permission to use it.  We include those who want their own business or who want to have a business together or a family business.  Business people or professionals who want to add an extra profit center to their business or who want to change their business entirely will benefit.  Those who want more control over their career should take this course.  Plus those who love travel and want to turn their trips into profitable tax deductions!

Only those who really want to publish for profit or to expand their business should sign up for this course.  We have created a proposition where you cannot lose, but the course is not for idle curiosity.  We are giving away every business secret we possess and expect those who use it to reap fortunes in extra income, tax savings or expanded business. We expect this knowledge will change your life for the better.  You’ll gain extra income, more fun, adventure, friends, freedom, independence and prestige too.

You receive a complete manual provided by me, Merri and our webmaster, David Cross (who teaches the internet aspects of publishing).

Due to the enormous savings of an online course, you save over $1,700 with a full money back if not satisfied guarantee.

Though many readers have paid up to $2,000 for this course, you can have the entire program including an entire course on creating small niche publications, for only $299.

You could not duplicate the computer and Internet knowledge for $2,000.  It covers what you need to get on the Net, how to use the Web to publish, how to define your Internet market, how to develop your site, target your market and start getting visits, the top ten Internet tips to use, the top ten traps to avoid, and many other lessons our Webmaster has used in his 20+ years on the net.  In many cases your tax savings will be five to ten times the cost of the system alone, plus you will learn how to gain thousands of FREEBEES and earn hundreds of thousands a year.

Our publishing business has brought us more wealth, satisfaction, fun and friendship than I imagined possible.  It has brought so much to my life, I would like to help everyone be in publishing and I hope you are one with whom I will have the pleasure sharing this exciting and profitable way of life!

Whether you are retired, an investor, chiropractor, doctor, dentist, professional or already own your own business, this offers another way to make money, to turn your passion into profit. We guarantee to share all we know to help you start and run your own publishing business.

Don’t miss this opportunity.  Sign up with this special $299 offer.   We’ll send the full original of the course “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” and for just $299.

Here is what to do.  If you’re not sure whether you really want to have a publishing business, consider the ways that such a way of living can improve your life.

Then look at this no risk guaranteed offer.

Our Guarantee

If you are not fully satisfied, you can cancel the course any time in the first 60 days for a full refund  and there will be no additional fee.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us any time during the first two months for a full refund. 

Order “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” $299.  Click Here.      

Gary

Learn more about small area magazines.

(1) Asheboro Magazine

snap magazine

(2) Cuenca Expats Magazine

cuenca mag

(3)  The Sentinella Magazine

snap

(4) Perla Crosby publishes MySanford magazine

mysanford magazine

 

(1) blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/12/14/a-brief-history-of-u-s-inflation-since-1775/

(2) tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp

How Infrastructure Flub Ruins Pensions


Expect the world to get richer.   Supply, demand and resources are what wealth is all about.  We live in a world with a growing population (increased demand) and technology that increases productivity (increased supply).   Overall the wealth, more supply and more demand) grows.

gary scott

I use this saw to beat inflation.

However don’t expect that wealth to be equally or fairly distributed.  There are plenty of reasons why those on fixed incomes can become poorer.

Take for example, the US infrastructure spending over the next four years.   This can be a bad deal for those on a fixed income.

Current predictions are that this building, accompanied by tax reductions at the upper end, will add 6 trillion dollars of US debt.  Adding debt financed infrastructure is good only if the improvements adds enough productivity to pay off the debt.   If not, the spending creates inflation.  Rising costs are bad for those who depend on pensions.

The world is in a technology transition.  The demand that is growing fastest is virtual.  Spending is likely to be on bricks and mortar.  This is compared to developing more WalMarts when all the shopping growth is at Amazon.com or building new post offices just before the internet came into use.

Here is a real example.  When we first moved to Naples, Florida in the 1970s Merri and I had a powerful computer.  This was a big deal back then and it allowed us to become an official post office internet center.  The idea was that if someone wanted to send an email to someone without a computer, they would send it to us.  We would print it and the recipient would pick it up from us physically.  That system really missed the mark!

We do not know what new productivity innovations lay ahead and creating six trillion in debt on infrastructure of the past will not create more real wealth.   There will be some jobs created but the added income will be offset by higher costs because the incomes created will be paid for from debt.   This debt is ours, the public’s, as in you and me.   In the bigger picture, this spending is akin to borrowing money from the bank and treating the loans as if they are earnings.

Those who will prosper most are the wealthy, the owners of the big construction businesses who enjoy added tax breaks while the middle class, especially those on fixed income, pick up a greater share of the tax burden and higher cost of living for essential goods.

How do we gain protection?

We can have multiple ways to create extra income.  Try new things that you enjoy doing that can work in good times and bad.

Don’t worry about making huge profits.  Keep trying things that you want to do.  For example at our farm in NC, we added three sources of extra income Airbnb rentals, raising trout and creating wood products (using hand tools like the saw above).   Some will take off, others probably won’t but each contributes to the battle against inflation and most important, we enjoy the process.  Some of the skills developed would be really valuable if there is a big economic meltdown.  We hope that meltdown will never come, but because there are scenarios where the global economy could go south,  we sleep better having these enjoyable skills.

This is a way to become a Pruppie and turn passions into profit.

Gary

See more on Pruppieism below.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere

How to Gain Extra Freedom – While Almost Everyone Loses Theirs.  Profit from post COVID-19 trends.

I invite you to join Merri and me in expecting the world to get better… to live and earn based on that expectation but…  to also prepare for bad times as well as good.

Just in case… the world goes sideways… we will still survive and prosper.

We do not give up anything much.  We can enjoy the good parts of the new economy, as we protect ourselves from what can be bad.

For example in my report “Live Anywhere-Earn Everywhere”,  you’ll see how to make your dining room table bring you more control, more time, more income and more freedom.  After all, what can be more accessible than a dining room table?

ecuador-banks

Dining room tables we worked from (and we also sold the tables for a profit).

You’ll even learn how to turn dining room tables into income and tax deductions as we have with these dining room tables we build out of local wood.

Let me be clear.  I expect that the world will get better, at least for the few who adapt and avoid the dangers that the changes from the COVID pandemic will bring. 

The wealth of the world, albeit with inequality, will continue to grow.  This collapse of the global economy will bring an incredible new opportunity for those who know what to do.  Thes profit making avenues offer enormous income potential and even work well in disaster scenarios.

Let me provide one simple, concrete example.  Ginseng.

This is a great health root.  The demand is growing especially in China.  At times good dried Ginseng sells for $1,000 a pound!  This is an incredible and easy crop to grow.   The less care you give it, the more valuable it can become.  Yet if everything goes south, the health qualities will be good to have and make it an excellent barter item.  Once you know what to do with ginseng, it’s easy to grow in your back yard.

Even better one of the best kept secrets is that ginseng and 125 other medicinal crops that are currently unsustainable but can be grown on land  that is extraordinarily cheap.

goldenseal ginseng

Ginseng we grew in our back yard.  I know about growing ginseng through experience and explain why and how in the report “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere”.

Loquats are another example of an easy to grow crop that help promote natural health.

loquats

Here I am by one of the many loquat trees at our Florida farm.

Loquats are a great fruit for making jam and such, but the loquat leaf has amazing medicinal qualities.  Its is a registered medicine in China and due to its anti viral and respiratory system enhancing qualities has an especially  growing demand right now.   The images below from Amazon.com show that the leaves sell for about a dollar per leaf!

I have many trees on the farm but started growing loquat seedlings last year.

loquat

Loquat leaf tea has become really important during the pandemic due to its respiratory strengthening qualities.

I have been drinking a lot of home made loquat leaf tea during the pandemic.

The report “Live Anywere-Earn Everywhere” shows specific places that reduce your living expenses, easily increases your income, makes you smarter, healthier and provides tax benefits as well. 

There are specific places where property is especially inexpensive, now because previous owners do not know about the special qualities created by the pandemic.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes these places special and seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar spots of opportunity.

Here are some of the experiences this report shares:

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not).

The report is very specific because it is about what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning globally.

  • Learn about the magic of the north facing slope.   This is where Merri and I live almost half of our time.  North facing mountain land is some of the least expensive in the world but has hidden values that the report reveals.  There is a lot of this land and a lot of hidden value that you can tap.   When we bought our Blue Ridge farm (252 acres) I mentioned this to my Swiss banking friend.  “That’s bigger than the entire village where I live!” was his response.  Smalltown USA offers a last chance at having a lot of space.  By living in two Smalltown places there are enormous tax advantages as well.  One step in the system saves Merri and me over $28,345 in taxes a year.

The report shows how to buy cheap north facing slopes and create an income producing tiny home for $29,000 or less.

If you lack the $29,000 to invest, a start up using tents is even less.  These are tipis we put up at our farm before we built our first tiny home.  Learn how they can create tens of thousands of dollars in income for you.

Fwd: gary-scott-tipis

  • See ways that small businesses like Tipi rentals can be enhanced by the pandemic but also create BIG tax savings as well as extra income.  For more than 30 years Merri and I have enjoyed a strong six figure income, some years more, in the millions.  Yet there have been very few years when we had to pay federal income tax.  The report lays out a three structure program and how it is used when you are in school (up to age 30), then from 25 to 50, 50 to 70  and beyond 70.   Learn why Chapter C corporations and pensions can be better than the normally recommended Chapter S.  See how new mileage log rules gives you a possible opportunity to increase your tax deductions using IRS Form 4562.  Using a two-vehicle strategy you can gain $12,976 in new deductions even if you do not have to drive one mile further or spend one additional penny on your car.
  • See how a greenhouse can help you eat better and be healthier, plus provide income and a tax deduction and be funded by a government grant.

gary-scott-farming

Our North Carolina greenhouse.

gary scott greenhouse

Our Florida greenhouse.

  • There are similar benefits from having a second home office defined in IRS publication 463 and IRS publication 587, even if your desk is a dining room table.  The report also shows how your dining room table can become an actual income producer as its creates a huge tax deduction at the same time, not to mention a great place to eat, work and lay out plans for a brighter, safer more lucrative and enjoyable future.
  • Living in this environment is also healthier, economically as well as physically.  You’ll see in the report how researchers at Harvard found an amazing correlation between living in conditions found on north facing slopes, longevity and mental health.  The researchers were quite surprised by this strong correlation that also extended into mental health.  In addition to feeling better, reducing stress and having more Joie de Vivre the places outlined in “Live Anywhere-Earn Everywhere” can help you avoid hospitals, high cost disease management (aka health care) and BIG pharma while providing an investment opportunity in three plants that have some of the fastest growing demand in natural health care.  These three plants are just one of seven business opportunities that can create multiple streams of income.
  • How changes in cell phone and internet technology eliminated the need to be in one place.   An old law that creates new opportunity for small business in small towns is available to everyone.
  • Use the specific search and purchase guide.  Construction plans are included that show how to generate first tier income that leads to five, second tier avenues of earnings.
  • How to pay off old debt and avoid new debt by avoiding spurts and embracing value. 
  • Learn seven skills that will always have value.  See how to turn First Aid, medicinal plants, hospitality, food, trees, alternate energy and writing to sell into everlasting, low stress wealth.

merrily farms

This pond we created at our farm brought us pleasure but also helped create a safe, healthy food supply, extra income and a tax deduction as well.

My Guarantee

This may be the most important report I have written in 50 years.  The information is certainly the most urgent.  Do not delay.  The risks are upon us right now and you’ll understand how the final steps of the alliance are taking place as you read the current news.

To take any risk out of gaining this urgent information with my full satisfaction or money back guarantee.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.  I guarantee you can ask for a full refund any time within 60 days and I’ll refund your payment in full, no questions asked.

You can keep the reports as my thanks for ordering it.

Buy Live Anywhere, Earn Everywhere Report  $39.99

 

 

A Centenarian Financial Lesson


Here is an important lesson about finance from a century ago.  In 1916, a terrible war was being waged.  The Germans realizing that they had made a huge error began a peace initiative.  The British refused, and this led to an even bigger German error, open submarine warfare that brought the Americans into the war.

Another huge error was that Germany’s government had made a decision to finance that war with loans. The strategy was to pay off the loans with the repatriations and spoils of war.  That plan backfired when Germany lost the war and the new Weimar Republic was now saddled with a massive war debt that it could not afford.  The government decided to payoff the debt by printing money without the economic resources to back it up.

In 1916 five German marks were worth a US dollar.  After the Treaty of Versailles 48 paper marks  were required to buy one US dollar.  Yet Germany continued to print paper money to pay its debt.  By November 1923, one American dollar was worth 4,210,500,000,000 German marks  (that’s 4.2 trillion marks per dollar).

The lesson is when governments print too much paper money, without the economic resources to back it up, that paper loses purchasing power.  Yet the lesson has not stuck.  Governments everywhere are growing deeper and deeper in debt.

One way to overcome the consequences of this devaluation is to combine multi-dimensional businesses with writing to sell.

Merri and I aim to create multi dimensional opportunity wherever we live.

In Florida we bought a house and an orange grove next door.  Then we added a rental unit.

citrus-

(Our Florida home and grove with its heart shape.)

In North Carolina we bought a house… then added a seminar center and rental units.

little-horse-creek

Our mountain creek seminar center in North Carolina.

We have made each of our homes multi dimensional… a home AND a source of income.  This is important because multi dimensional homes help us escape governments that cannot keep their economic promises.  History is littered with stories of serious national debt and economic problems that ruined pensions and retirees.  The burdens of debt and fiscal imprudence cause governments and societies to lose their ability to keep their promises.  Multi dimensional earnings can help overcome the risks these conditions create.

A look at government, social and currency breakdowns at their worst can help us see ways to earn and invest in turbulent times.

We do not have to look back 100 years to see what excessive debt and printing of paper currency can do.  In 1992, after Ukraine declared independence from the Soviet Union, its budget deficit reached 12.2% of GDP and inflation reached 2000%.  In 1993 price growth was 10,000%.  By the time a new currency was introduced (the hryvnia) in 1996 cumulative price increases reached 100,000 times!

Inflation slowed for awhile but has skyrocketed again and Ukraine’s hryvnia lost 70 percent of its value against other currencies in just the last year.

No matter how much one earns and saves, if prices rise 100,000 times, a lifetime of thrift might not be enough for a loaf of bread.

Any fixed income, pension, Social Security or savings can become worthless.

This is why multi-dimensional micro business opportunities make sense.

One way to be multi-dimensional is by learning how to write to sell.

Writing has always been the starting point in Merri’s and my multi dimensional activity.  Whether we have been creating a seminar, a course, finding or selling real estate, or an investment or business opportunity, we have reached our clients with the written word.

When you know how to write to sell, you can live anywhere you choose and still earn.  You can choose where the sun shines best for you and still have a pinnacle career.

Many countries require work permits for certain jobs, but usually these are not required for businesses like restaurants, shops, real estate agencies, art galleries, bed-and-breakfasts and small hotels.

Self Publishing has helped Merri and me create exactly the lifestyle we desire.

Self Publishing has entered a new era as a new business art form and we want to share with you how to start your own self publishing business now at our upcoming International Club retreat.

Learn how to develop your publishing skills to turn your passion into profit!  Even if you aren’t excited about writing… you can publish.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it AND even create a six-and even seven figure income. This could be your direct ticket to the kind of fulfillment you’ve always wanted in life.  Whether you want to travel the world or live as a recluse, work 12 hours a day or not work at all, learn more about golf or feeding the hungry… it can be yours!

Here are  three basics of success in self publishing… passion… purpose… and profit.

Passion. You have to love to write to succeed in writing. This may seem a simple point but you either need to enjoy writing or love what you are writing about.

Purpose. To remain a writer for the long haul requires more than just fun.  Writers are missionaries. Your mission may be to tell a truth… reveal a secret or simply to entertain.  You’ll know what that mission is or at least feel it.  This is the driving force of writing.  If you do not understand it to begin… after you write enough that purpose will reveal itself.

Profit.  Follow your passions yes… but also stay tuned with what the majority of buyers want. Your desires may be the bull’s eye, but the entire target is THE market.

Plus the target is always moving so you should keep testing the winds of change. If the mood of your market changes and you do not keep up, your product or marketing can become out of style.

Fortunately there is a really simple way to stay tuned to your market that I learned years ago by surprise.

A friend inadvertently taught me this trick years ago when he recommended a book entitled “How to Survive the Upcoming Crash of 1995”. That book was on the NY Times best seller list and it sacred me to death as it told about how the U.S. economy would melt down in 1995 because U.S. government debt was out of control.

The book offered no solution to this dilemma.

I wrote a marketing piece with a headline “Are we 23 Months to Disaster?” that mentioned the book, outlined this problem and gave readers a way to find solutions by ordering my course on international investing.

Over the next two years this marketing piece worked unbelievably well creating millions in sales and profits.

Yet the premise was totally wrong! There was no bankruptcy of the US economy in 1995.  Instead the greatest economic boom in the history of mankind began.

This taught a valuable and simple lesson on how to see the buying public as a whole…perhaps understanding the public persona better than the public understands itself. The trick is simply to look at the best selling book lists…especially those of large newspapers… New York Times, USA Today and the Kindle Top 100.

The profits and sales from my 23 Months to Disaster piece did not arise because the product or marketing were in tune with economic markets. The disaster marketing piece was a success because it was tuned to how investors felt!   In addition the piece was fortified because it related to a book that millions of investors had read.

That book had scared millions of investors and created a problem for them, just as it had me.  My disaster marketing piece came along at just the right time…with a solution!

We can get clues about business trends by watching what everyone reads.

Best selling book lists are windows into a nation’s or the world’s soul and studying them can help you create a profitable multi dimensional business.

Merri, David and I are always testing new ways of communicating with our readers.  We know the value of embracing change.  The evolution in our business has taught us to integrate what we learn and feel with what others say.  We want to share this continuing process with you at our upcoming retreat. Details are below.

Gary

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll Really Cash In Next Time”

Periods of good investing performance are always followed by periods that are bad.

Think about this…

The US dollar has risen over 50% above its lows of 2011.   The greenback is at its highest level versus the Chinese yuan since 2008.  India’s rupee is at an all-time low against the buck.  Other Asian currencies, the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit have plunged to depths not seen since the financial crisis of 1997-98.  The euro, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar have crashed.  In other words, the US dollar is in a period of high performance.

What happens is the greenback is in a free fall.  Smart investors can cash in huge profits.

Yet there is a bigger economic problem that can ruin the purchasing power of your cash faster than you can imagine.

While the dollar was rising non US governments and businesses accumulated almost ten trillion dollars of debt denominated in US dollars.

The terror in this debt is that it acts as a destructive and very rapid financial amplifier.  Dollar debt is like a short position.  When the dollar rises, borrowers scramble to short-cover their position by selling their own currency.  This defeats the purpose of their hedging as it increases the strength of the dollar.  So they short even more.  Those short sales create an upward dollar spiral.  The buck rises higher and higher, based entirely on fear and speculation.

When that leverage energy is spent the currency stalls and plummets out of control… like now.

The last time we saw such a upwards spiral was from 1980 to 1985.  The dollar rose 50% in those five years.

Guess what?

Then it collapsed 50% in just two years.

The US dollar is in a similar position as at the beginning of Ronald Reagan’s first term in the 1970s.  This was a time of widening budget deficits, rising interest rates and a US dollar surge.  This created a problem then, as it does now, and creates huge opportunity for those in the know.

The rise of the dollar, the debt and the US stock market creates an especially dangerous conflict because Donald Trump wants to balance America’s trade.  A stronger dollar makes this impossible because it pushes up the cost of US material, US labor and US exports.

The overpriced dollar, the poor value of the US stock market (compared to other markets) create a dollar crisis and a special opportunity for you and me as investors.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.  I had wished I could have invested more.

Now those circumstances are here again.

And I have…

invested more… a lot more… betting again the dollar.

The swollen stock market prices, huge dollar denominated debt and weakening dollar are three patterns that can create a fast 50% profit.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.

There is a way to accumulate good value equities denominated in the following currencies of special strength, including the Euro, Canadian dollar, Singapore dollar, British pound, New Taiwan dollar and Chinese yuan.

The report reveals 21 special non dollar equities that have the greatest opportunity for safety and appreciation.

I kept the report short and simple, but include links to 153 pages of global stock market and asset allocation analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to inexpensively accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hit the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep the report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

Or get this report free.  Subscribe to the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) described below.

 

 

Frightening Inflation


Here is a frightening thought about inflation. 

A recent article about inflation in Japan deserves some time for reflection.

The article said:  “It’s one thing if luxury items are expensive, but if cheap things aren’t cheap anymore, it’s a real problem.”

Inflation has not come much to the forefront in the last few years.  Rising costs have been low, except for the cheap things like food, beans and rice, vegetables and fruit… nuts.

Now underlying inflation in the United States has increased more than expected as rents and medical costs maintain an upward trend.  The core Consumer Price Index rose 2.3 percent in the 12 months through February 2016.  This was the highest increase in almost five years.  In 2016 food and other costs (such as new and used cars and trucks) rose even faster.   However inflation seemed low because there was a 13 percent drop in gasoline prices, which offset both the increase in core C.P.I. and food prices.

This is an inflation danger, short term volatility in commodities such as oil can obscure rising long term prices  in other essentials that were previously not worth worrying about, such as food.

This has to leave us to wonder. “It’s one thing if luxury items are expensive, but if cheap things aren’t cheap anymore, it’s a real problem.”

Gary

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

Why We Need Slow Investing


As the world speeds up, we need to slow down.  One typical lie is the promise of something so far in the future, that the liar won’t be around when the promise needs to be kept.  Governments and businesses have been lying this way for so long that they have created quite a rat race for those now stuck with keeping the promise.  The way to avoid this rat race is to get off the treadmill and take time to observe and create your own health, earning and savings strategy.

A Wall Street Journal article “Cracks Starting to Appear in Public Pensions’ Armor” (1) reminded me that we each need to find easy practical ways to care for ourselves.

This article caught my attention because my father worked for the city of Portland. He was a zoo keeper.

Portland-zoo

(Article from Oregonian about my sister and me raising a baby lion.  We loved dad’s job.  He brought many lions and tigers home for us to care for.  At ten years old, this was so cool.)

What a great occupation for your dad to have when you are a kid!  But this is now the remains at the zoo.

Portland-zoo

Old Portland Zoo after it was abandoned… picture taken February 1960.  Will state, city and county employees be abandoned as well?

Having grown up during the depression of the 1930s, “job security and benefits” were Dad’s mantra.  He was in the right time at the right place.  His job provided a steady income and his pension benefits were fantastic.   Though he passed many years ago, my mom has received great benefits for over 30 years.

I have watched the benefits be cut and the article in the Wall Street Journal shares how all types of pensions from private to public to Social Security do less than before and are likely to do even less in the years ahead.

The article says:  “First in Detroit, then in Stockton, Calif., and now in New Jersey, judges and other top officials are challenging the widespread belief that public pensions are untouchable.”

The article tells how Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey proposed freezing that state’s public pension plans and says: The first crack came in Detroit, where a judge ruled that public pensions could, in fact, be reduced, at least in bankruptcy. Then, just a few weeks ago, an opinion by the bankruptcy judge for Stockton, which emerged from Chapter 9 on Wednesday, called California’s mighty public pension system, Calpers, a bully for insisting in court that pension cuts were wholly out of the question.

Companies can legally freeze their pension plans and now more and more states are arguing that because they are legal sovereigns, federal pension law does not apply to them.  The problem is when states, cities and other local governments reform pensions  they cannot freeze benefits for existing workers.  Statistics show that reducing benefits only for future hires does not save enough money to preserve overstretched pension plans, especially in places where retirees outnumber current workers.

This problem created by longer lifespans, swollen benefits and lowered pension earnings induces many pension managers to do exactly the wrong thing, to speed up and leverage investing and increase risk.

An article entitled “Intel Lawsuit Questions Place of Hedge Funds in Retirement Plans (2)  tells how the Intel pension places big bets on hedge funds and private equity.  The plaintiffs say that this increases risks and costs in the retirement portfolios, hurting plan participants.

A decade ago Intel had a conservative pension primarily in large-capitalization stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500. Then the company began diversifying into small-capitalization stocks, emerging-markets securities, fixed-income and alternative investments like commodities futures, hedge funds and private equity. Recently, these investments in hedge funds and private equity have grown significantly.

The answer to increased risk of default is not to increase risk, but to resolve the underlying problem of too much demand and too little contribution.  Pensions are meant to be absolute promises that their participants can depend on.  To keep their promise, they need well founded math based on reduced promises, increased contributions and slower, more dependable, good value investing.

Times are changing at an ever increasing rate.  The way to succeed in this scenario is to step off the treadmill, slow down so you can observe and create your own strategy for natural health, earning through a pinnacle career and saving with purposeful, good value investing.

Gary

www.nytimes.com – public pensions look vulnerable

www.nytimes.com – intel lawsuit questions place of hedge funds in retirement plans

Gain From Pandemics – Riots & Election Volatility

On top of the pandemic… and the riots, another election on its way… all the robo calls from politicians… the dirty tricks and the innumerable amounts of nonsense this vital process brings.

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure, there will be volatility in stock markets during the election process.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   A market correction was due regardless of the party or the person in office and COVID-19 was a pretty good excuse for it to suddenly drop.  Expect plenty more volatility.  Whether the economy recovers slowly or quickly, history suggests that the US market will do a lot of moving up and down.

Second the new politics has created an uncertain era.  Everyone has been shaken over the past three years whether they are pleased with the government or not.

Nothing frightens markets like uncertainty. 

What more could we ask for… an uncertain COVID-19 future and riots in 30 major cities.

Well interest rates could be a dark horse.  I the massive government handouts create inflation, interest rates will rise and rising interest rates will push stock market prices down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the strong US dollar and undervalued non dollar stock markets to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies are the best way to profit long term, through good politics and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.

However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 plus years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) www.nyti

 

 

How to Survive Selective Inflation


The worst kinds of inflation are unreasonable rises in the costs of basics such as  food, shelter and medicine.   There are times when due to income, inequality or legal inefficiency, inflation becomes a form of extortion.  Take the case of shelter, various anti discrimination laws are used to stop landlords from abusing their power to provide  shelter (such as asking for sex to reduce or forego rent), but the practice is all too common.

We don’t have to look far to see legal extortion in medicine.  There has been an outrage about the rise in the price of a decades-old drug called Daraprim.   A new company, Turing Pharmaceuticals, bought the drug and promptly increased the price from $13.50 per tablet to $750 per tablet — a 5,000 percent jump!  However this new company is just following the example of Valeant Pharmaceutical which has a business model of buying existing drugs and raising prices aggressively, rather than trying to develop new drugs.  In essence these companies are extorting (currently in a legal way) unreasonable profits with the threat, “Pay up or die”.

Valeant Drug Prices

This image from the New York Times article on rising drug prices (1) shows how in 2015 alone, Valeant raised prices on its brand-name drugs an average of 66 percent.

Selective inflation is likely to apply to the even more basic item-food.  Here is why I think selective inflation could hurt hundreds of millions of people, especially those on a fixed income.

I recently researched inflation beyond the Consumer Price Index for my report, “The Silver Dip 2015”.   What I found is that since 1942 US median income increased 29 times.  House prices rose from 1942 until 2015 47 times. The cost of cars jumped 36 times.  Gold is up 33 times its value in 1942.  Silver rose 38 times in the same period.

This means that gold and silver were reasonable hedges against some forms of inflation.  Had you stored a pile of the precious metals away in 1942 to buy a car  or house today, you could do it.   This is true of going to a movie, up 33 times or renting an apartment.  Apartment rentals are up 34 times.

The metals have done even better when it comes to eating.  The price of bread has risen 21 times.  Sugar is up 10 times. Hamburger about 13 times.  Coffee  11 times.  Eggs 13 times increase.  Milk 16 times.

Ideally this means that food companies have been good about not gouging consumers.  Regretfully in the face of growing income inequity, failing corporate ethics and rising food prices we might be a bit cynical and not count on this.  The more likely fact is that food processors will see the lag as an excuse to let food prices catch up.

Last May the Labor Department indicated that Americans should be prepared for food prices to remain relatively high.

Meats have seen the steepest rise in price along with dairy products.

Rising food prices can continue to a be a source of stress worldwide as internationally traded food prices rose by a steep 4.0%. Corn and wheat, in particular, contributed to the rise.  The commodities each increased 12% and 18% worldwide this year through the middle of the year despite record grain harvests.

Living standards will suffer as more is spent on grocery store bills, leaving less for discretionary spending.

According to an article at cheatsheets.com (2) The World Bank says that already high food prices have become “the new normal,” and writes that, in less developed nations, families cope with rising prices by “pulling their children out of school and eating cheaper less nutritious food, which can have severe life-long effects… one-third of all child deaths globally are attributed to under-nutrition.”

There are numerous reasons for the increasing cost of food, climate change, drought, increased demand, rising labor costs and worker shortages all which create price pressure.

The largest price pressure comes from industry consolidation.  As processors and packagers merge, reduced competition creates higher food prices.

The best way to overcome selective inequality inflation such as rising food prices is to make sure your income and savings rise faster than prices.

The price comparisons in my research show that gold has outperformed nine of 14 inflation standards reviewed.  Silver outperformed 12 of the standards.  This suggests that gold and silver have done pretty well in maintaining value as real money.

However, this comparison also suggests that gold and silver are not necessarily badly undervalued either.  Beware of claims of $2,000 or $5,000 an ounce gold!  The price of gold and silver are likely to continue rising and falling along their medians.  If the conclusions of the inflation comparison are correct, any time silver drops much below $14, it is perhaps under valued. Gold below $1,150 is also likely a good deal.

This suggests that the price of silver and gold may not rise as fast as the price of medicine or food.  This is why I have written two reports, one on value investing in currency patterns,  “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and on how to use leverage with silver, “Silver Dip 2015“.

Integrating equity and currency value investing with leverage and precious metals can increase profits to help us stay abreast of selective inequality inflation.

Gary

Gain From Pandemics – Riots & Election Volatility

On top of the pandemic… and the riots, another election on its way… all the robo calls from politicians… the dirty tricks and the innumerable amounts of nonsense this vital process brings.

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure, there will be volatility in stock markets during the election process.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   A market correction was due regardless of the party or the person in office and COVID-19 was a pretty good excuse for it to suddenly drop.  Expect plenty more volatility.  Whether the economy recovers slowly or quickly, history suggests that the US market will do a lot of moving up and down.

Second the new politics has created an uncertain era.  Everyone has been shaken over the past three years whether they are pleased with the government or not.

Nothing frightens markets like uncertainty. 

What more could we ask for… an uncertain COVID-19 future and riots in 30 major cities.

Well interest rates could be a dark horse.  I the massive government handouts create inflation, interest rates will rise and rising interest rates will push stock market prices down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the strong US dollar and undervalued non dollar stock markets to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies are the best way to profit long term, through good politics and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.

However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 plus years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) www.nyti

 

(1)  www.nytimes.com – Valeants drug price strategy

(2) www.cheatsheet.com – Price pressures from farm to table

How to Avoid Swiss Francs During Inflation


Inflation is important.  Some parts of the cost of living have been rising much faster than statistics suggest.  Anyone who visits the grocery store quickly learns this fact.

The last time this economic phenomenon happened my investments earned extra profits so I have been preparing to react to this particular type of inflation. Intelligent investments can create extra earnings that will offset the costs.  My investment will not include many Swiss francs, if any at all.

swiss franc

In the past, inflation protection was easier because other major governments were not involved in excessive government spending.  One could get out of the US dollar and invest in German marks, Japanese yen or Swiss francs and expect to make a profit.

This tactic no longer works.  The German mark is gone, so we have to invest in euro to get a German investment.  The euro has great potential versus the dollar but nothing like a German mark would have.

The Swiss franc, was a great currency for protection for many decades, but the fundamentals no longer are so strong.

First of all, Switzerland’s economy is simply too small for the franc to be a reserve currency.   In eras past, only a small portion of the world’s wealth (held by the richest) had access to Swiss francs.  In modern times, a huge population had access to investing in the franc.  Yet Switzerland’s population at 6 million people is the size of Philadelphia or Dallas, Houston or Washington, DC.

Switzerland needs to keep its currency pegged somewhere close to the euro as Germany is its largest export country.

There is good information about Switzerland’s exports at a MIT University site. (1)

mit swiss franc data

This chart from the MIT site shows Switzerland’s main exports.

Gold                                                                     $52,519,814,522     20% of all exports
Packaged Medicaments                                   $29,809,689,115     11% of all exports
Human or Animal Blood                                 $16,366,090,711        6.2% of all exports
Watches                                                              $21,895,590,400      8.3% of all exports
Orthopedic Appliances                                    $6,274,875,494         2.4% of all exports
Jewelry                                                                $5,861,875,912          2.2% of all exports
Nitrogen Heterocyclic Compounds               $4,813,692,968.35    1.8% of all exports

Some investors make the mistake of looking at the Swiss franc as it was decades ago. I have warned against this for many years.

Years ago in a different world, Switzerland was isolated and fiercely independent. Its mountainous terrain and well-organized citizen’s army gave strength to claim and enforce neutrality.

The small population (about 6 million) believed in personal and hence banking privacy. The people were incredibly conservative and highly efficient. They did not believe in government debt and demanded that their national bank keep a large amount of gold as a reserve for their currency.  This made Switzerland an ideal banking center in those days plus made Switzerland a refuge in times of turmoil. Swiss francs in a Swiss bank account were considered one of the ultimate forms of financial safety.

This all changed. The computer, new tactics in war and the global economic community turned everything upside down. The computer was like the Colt .45, a great equalizer, making bankers in England, Italy or Spain, etc. as efficient as the Swiss. New instruments of war, intercontinental and cruise missiles, nuclear weapons, etc. dramatically reduced Switzerland’s natural defences.

Most of all, the global economic community forced Swiss banks to deal in US dollars, British
pounds, Japanese yen and German marks. Swiss banks had to open centers abroad and hence became vulnerable to other country’s laws. They lost much of their independence!

Today Swiss banks are affected by what happens in the US and other countries.  More importantly, the Swiss franc can no longer be allowed to be the reserve currency of last resort. Switzerland is a poor country in terms of natural resources lacking oil, minerals and the ability to feed itself.

Switzerland is a trading nation and must have its currency at parity with other nations which allows them to export goods.  It must export to survive. A large segment of its exports go to Germany. When the Swiss franc becomes too strong, especially against the euro, the Swiss react quickly to force its parity down.

During the 1970s recession when investors began flocking to the franc, the Swiss National Bank imposed a 12% per quarter negative tax on Swiss franc accounts over 100,000 SFR held by overseas investors.

In the last five years, the Swiss franc appears to have really strengthened versus the Euro as this chart (2) from Xe.com shows.

swiss franc chart

Click on image to enlarge.

This chart shows a special risk in the Swiss franc. The Swiss National Bank protects the SFR and has a nasty habit (see 2011 and 2015) of manipulating the SFR exchange rate. The sharp drop of the franc earlier this year is like a spring ready to push the parity of the Swiss franc back down versus the euro.

This also gives a distorted view of the Swiss franc Euro relationship.  The Swiss franc has simply switched its parity with the US dollar and as the chart (3) shows.  The franc has maintained its value with the dollar now for five years.  I believe this is because someone at the Swiss National Bank is smart enoughj to know that the dollar is too strong and when it corrects, the francs parity will move back closer to the euro.

This was really bad for speculators who were long in Swiss francs, a brilliant move on the part of the Swiss National Bank.  Investors will think twice about jumping into the Swiss franc thinking they can make an automatic profit.

swiss franc chart

Since the US dollar is seriously overbought, the suggestion is that when the greenback corrects versus the euro, so too will the Swiss franc.

Switzerland is a good banking center, yes.  The Swiss franc may be a strong, stable currency, yes, but the Swiss cannot afford to let the franc rise too high and the profit potential on Swiss franc investments is extremely low.  The Swiss SNI Stock Market index has risen 33% in the last five years, compared to a rise of over 60% in the Dow Jones Index.  Since the currency parities have remained equal, investors in the SNI have earned half the profits as investors in the Dow.

Why choose a currency that is not likely to go anywhere when you are not getting paid a handsome income return?

I have shared this information for at least fifteen years warning not to invest too much in Swiss francs, especially when it is strong and overall this has been correct.  I have not changed my opinion on this.  If you find a good value investment denominated in Swiss francs, go for it, but overweighting a portfolio in this currency runs the risk of muddled returns at best.

Gary

Learn how to master inflation.

To help you gain mastery over your investments and all your important goals in life, this week only Amazon.com has a countdown special on the Kindle edition of Bob Gandt and my new book MASTERY for only $2.99.   The print list price $13.99, the Kindle regular price $6.99.  Download it directly to your Kindle reader or onto your PC, Mac or tablet on an app from the Amazon page.

mastery

Order MASTERY (this week only) at Amazon.com for $2.99

Gain From Pandemics – Riots & Election Volatility

On top of the pandemic… and the riots, another election on its way… all the robo calls from politicians… the dirty tricks and the innumerable amounts of nonsense this vital process brings.

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure, there will be volatility in stock markets during the election process.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   A market correction was due regardless of the party or the person in office and COVID-19 was a pretty good excuse for it to suddenly drop.  Expect plenty more volatility.  Whether the economy recovers slowly or quickly, history suggests that the US market will do a lot of moving up and down.

Second the new politics has created an uncertain era.  Everyone has been shaken over the past three years whether they are pleased with the government or not.

Nothing frightens markets like uncertainty. 

What more could we ask for… an uncertain COVID-19 future and riots in 30 major cities.

Well interest rates could be a dark horse.  I the massive government handouts create inflation, interest rates will rise and rising interest rates will push stock market prices down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the strong US dollar and undervalued non dollar stock markets to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies are the best way to profit long term, through good politics and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.

However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 plus years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) www.nyti

 

(1) https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/che/

(2) http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=CHF&view=5Y

(3) http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CHF&view=5Y

How to Prosper in the Worst Times


Many readers send me notes about our political system that sounds like sour grapes (frustrated).  Other notes I receive are more like the grapes of wrath (angry).   Many readers are angry, many are frustrated and most are a little afraid.

Let’s remind ourselves of some basics and remember even rotten grapes can be turned into sweet wine.  See below a way to earn extra profit with a falling US dollar.

grape pie

Concord grapes from our little vineyard at Merrily Farms.

A reader sent this note:  Hi Gary,  If the USD is replaced as the world’s “go to” currency, we’ll have a major crash in this country.  I believe it’s inevitable.  So what references can you offer to help us prepare for the worst?  Your input will be greatly appreciated.  Please tell Merri hello and give her our best.

My reply:  First, a weak dollar is not a bad thing for Americans.  Imports cost more but the US still has the largest domestic economy in the world by far.  Here are the stats from the IMF for 2014 (1).

Rank   Country                 GDP   $ Millions

1          United States           17,418,925
2         China                         10,380,380
3         Japan                          4,616,335
4         Germany                    3,859,547
5         United Kingdom      2,945,146
6         France                        2,846,889
7         Brazil                          2,353,025

Right now there is a very good case for diversifying out of the US dollar into the Euro.  This ten year chart of the Euro shows how it has been dropping in waves versus the US dollar since 2008.  The dollar’s strength since late 2013 suggests that the green back is very overbought.  The Euro zone has lower debt as a percent of GDP, a smaller deficit and a much better trade balance.  All of these fundamental strengths give the euro a good reason to surge.

US dollar

Chart from www.xe.com (1)

Our reports  “3 Economic Conditions for 50% Profits or More” and  “Silver Dip 2015”  both show how to to profit when the US dollar falls.

The loss of purchasing power of all currencies are a growing global problem.  The US dollar has been losing purchasing power since I began traveling and investing in the late 1960s.  Today almost every currency is under pressure because almost every government has used the same overspending tactics as has the US.

Winston Churchill outlined the crux of the problem when he said: “If the Almighty were to rebuild the world and asked me for advice, I would have English Channels round every country.  And the atmosphere would be such that anything which attempted to fly would be set on fire.

The opposite has evolved.  Modern communications and technology have allowed a growing population that is increasingly connected.

Technology creates greater wealth.  Communications allow even the poorest to know about (and desire) this wealth.  As always, the extra wealth is not distributed equally or fairly but in the modern world technology allows the poor to express their frustration in deadly ways, if they don’t get enough of the added affluence.

This is why no one is isolated from the Syrian problem.  This is why a very small number of people at ISIS can affect most of us wherever we are in the world.  This is why no one country can (or should) be allowed to crash.

Inflation is one way of creating soft landings to these equality distribution problems.

Here are some of the steps we have taken to reduce the effects of inflation and gain from currency fluctuations..

First, we have expanded our investments in rental real estate.   We reduced our equity position, almost totally eliminated bonds and added rental income property.  Rental property is a lot more work than investments in CDS or bonds (not enough return) or buying US shares (hard to find value).

We aimed for a sweet spot, two and three bedroom houses that rent for about $1000 a month.  Our renters are mostly working professionals, teachers, police, foremen and retired couples.  The reasoning is that these are stable renters and rents will rise with inflation and provide a sufficient income.

In stock investing we are investing in value markets outside the USA  (explained in the report “3 Economic Conditions for 50% Profits or More” and  and speculating in precious metals as in our report “Silver Dip 2015”.

Second, we have moved to remote places away from the madding crowd and more out of harms way from traffic jams, noise, pollution, riots and such.  I want to point out that this decision was not made because we think the world or the US dollar is coming to an end.  Life is just better out here in nowhere for us.  If we loved shopping and concerts, theater, socializing, dining in restaurants. etc. our decision might be different, but we do not. We love land, fresh air, lots of water and space and we like to stay at home or with our children and grandchildren.

Third, we stay away form the US medical system as much as we can and work at maintaining good natural health.  Fortunately, we really like to garden so I get good exercise growing some of our own food.  This provides a double benefit, the exercise and truly ripe, organic food picked right off the vine eaten with fish from the creek or lake.

grape pie

Finally, I am very picky about reading the news, never at night and only looking at specific items that might relate to what we are doing.  So much of the global medias is aimed at instilling and/or enhancing fear.  What a shame to live in more fear than is required!

The world, governments and the currencies they issue have changed a lot in the last 45 years that I have been multi currency investing.  The almighty may not have listened to Winston Churchill for evolutionary planning, but we have been given two key economic essentials, that are the very basics of all economics, more demand, (a growing population) and  more supply (increased productivity).

There are plenty of distortions and displacements caused by unequal distribution of wealth.  These errors remain and will remain cause of concern and of inflation.  The overall trend however is of greater wealth. When we achieve mastery at selecting currencies and live in a peaceful healthy way, we can increase our share of this wealth.

grape pie

Grape pie we recently baked from grapes off our vines at the farm.  It was not sour. Nor was there any wrath involved!

To help you gain mastery over all your important goals in life, this week only Amazon.com has a countdown special on the Kindle edition of Bob Gandt and my new book MASTERY for only $2.99.   The print list price $13.99, the Kindle regular price $6.99.  Download it directly to your Kindle reader or onto your PC, Mac or tablet on an app from the Amazon page.

mastery

Order MASTERY (this week only) at Amazon.com for $2.99

Gary

Gain From Pandemics – Riots & Election Volatility

On top of the pandemic… and the riots, another election on its way… all the robo calls from politicians… the dirty tricks and the innumerable amounts of nonsense this vital process brings.

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure, there will be volatility in stock markets during the election process.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   A market correction was due regardless of the party or the person in office and COVID-19 was a pretty good excuse for it to suddenly drop.  Expect plenty more volatility.  Whether the economy recovers slowly or quickly, history suggests that the US market will do a lot of moving up and down.

Second the new politics has created an uncertain era.  Everyone has been shaken over the past three years whether they are pleased with the government or not.

Nothing frightens markets like uncertainty. 

What more could we ask for… an uncertain COVID-19 future and riots in 30 major cities.

Well interest rates could be a dark horse.  I the massive government handouts create inflation, interest rates will rise and rising interest rates will push stock market prices down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the strong US dollar and undervalued non dollar stock markets to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies are the best way to profit long term, through good politics and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.

However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 plus years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) www.nyti

 

(1) IMF GDP Stats

(2)  Euro Dollar Chart at www.xe.com

Beat Inflation – Reduce Tax


A micro business in writing can create income that beats inflation as it reduces tax.

Money does not guarantee happiness but up to about $75,000 a year of income, money does help.  If you are turning your passion into profit, then it is even easier to be content with your labors.   The value of labor rises with inflation.  That $75,000 threshold will be worth $38,126 in ten years if inflation is 7%.  $75,000 of today’s purchasing power will require $147,536.

Good labor is not drudgery and does not have to be work.

The beauty of learning to serve in a fulfilling way is the process of earning can be fun.

Take the example of Denis Malloy’s new book  “Eat Local Anywhere”.   Our  course “Self Fulfilled How to be a Self Publisher” helped Denis write this book.

eat local anywhere

Denis’s guide is for local restaurants in different parts of the world that are not specifically designed to attract tourists.  They are restaurants featuring authentic, local cuisine for local residents.  The moderate prices on their menus and the authentic representation make these great places to eat as you travel.

Learn more about Denis Malloy’s “Eat Local Anywhere” at Amazon.com

To research this book, here are a few of the places Denis had to travel so eat in many of the restaurants there.

Brussels, Belgium

Buenos Aires, Argentina

Quito, Ecuador

Punta Del Este, Uruguay

Santiago, Chile

Montevideo, Uruguay

Paris, France

Sait Jean de Luz, Pyrenees-Atlantiques,  France

Sheboygan, Wisconsin

Del Ray Beach, Florida

Do you think his research was drudgery?  Look at the service he provided, a valuable guide to good restaurants offering great food and low prices. here is a bigger social element here.  By helping promote local restaurants that serve good local food, Denis is helping short circuit big agri business and  chains that increasingly dominate commerce and pollute our bodies and the environment.

In addition Denis gained enormous tax advantages.

Fight inflation, reduce tax, help the world, be fulfilled.  Never give up the ability to serve.

Our upcoming Value Investing Seminar features many cash savings ideas via tax reduction.

Gary

Learn Fun & Profitable Tax Secrets

Imagine this, micro businesses are such good ways to create wealth and reduce tax that even cruises can be tax deductible.

Small family owned businesses have some of the best tax benefits.

Micro businesses have huge tax savings using really conservative strategies.

conrad oertwig

Conrad Oertwig (far right) after a seminar when delegates visit our North Carolina home.

This is why I am delighted that our tax preparer, Conrad Oertwig, who is a master of tax savings information, has agreed to speak at our October 17-18, 2015 Value Investment Seminar.

Conrad Oertwig can assist you on tax matters.  IN FACT THIS FALL, Conrad will be offering a course and personal service on ways that one-person and family business owners can have more cash via tax savings.   Conrad is offering a report on seven ways to put more cash on the table when you earn and is releasing a course on how to save taxes this fall.

Conrad’s report is “7 Secrets to Paying Less Tax… for the One-Owner Business”.  He sent me this note to share with you about the report.

From: Conrad Oertwig

One hard fact of life is that taxes are cash.  It’s a mistake to think of taxes as taxes.  If you want to create more net worth, you need to think of taxes as cash.

How much tax cash are you leaving on the table? Thousands? Tens of thousands?

Here are just three of seven secrets I will share with Gary Scott readers at the October 17-18 Value Investment Seminar and in my report.   Learn how to pay less tax, have more cash, and build your net worth.

Secret # 1: Gain $12,976 by using two vehicles for business.  In the past, your tax adviser likely told you to drive one vehicle for business and the other vehicle for personal purposes. This old advice made it easier to claim the one car as a business car because no business mileage log was required back then. But that’s no longer true.

Today, tax law requires you to keep a mileage log to prove business use. That changes the game. With today’s rules, you gain nothing by using only one car. But the new mileage log rule gives you a possible opportunity to increase your tax deductions.

First, you might ask: Will the IRS allow me to use more than one vehicle for business?

Yes! The IRS official method for computing business use of a single vehicle is to divide business miles by total miles driven. IRS Form 4562, which is filed by proprietorships and corporations, contains spaces for up to six vehicles. In other words, yes, the IRS recognizes that you can drive more than one vehicle.

Here are the two basics that make the two-vehicle strategy work:
1:  You drive more miles than your spouse, and
2:  Both vehicles are somewhat close in adjusted basis.
To see if you can benefit from this two-vehicle strategy, and by how much (the minimum amount, really), apply the arithmetic from the before-and-after example below to your vehicles.

Before. You drive 2,000 personal and 28,000 business miles on your vehicle (93% business). Your spouse drives 8,000 personal miles on vehicle 2. Each vehicle has an adjusted basis of $24,000. Your maximum depreciation and/or Section 179 deduction is $22,400 (93% times $24,000) on the one vehicle you currently drive for business.

After. You switch vehicles with your spouse every week. You now have 73.7% business use of vehicle 1 and 73.7% business use of vehicle 2. This produces $35,376 in maximum depreciation and/or Section 179 deductions (73.7% x 2 x $24,000).

You gain $12,976 in new deductions ($35,376 minus $22,400). You did not have to drive one mile further or spend one additional penny. You simply had to know (as you learned here) that this strategy could work for you.

Secret #2:  Have a second office in the home.

Have you been told that because you have an office outside your home that you may not have an office in the home?  That’s wrong!

IRS publication 463 states, “You can have more than one business location, including your home, for a single trade or business.”  Learn why in the free report due to IRS publication 587 you want your office in the home to qualify as an administrative office.

Secret #3: Travel by cruise ship and deduct up to $680 a day.

When you know the rules, it’s easy to travel to a business meeting by cruise ship rather than by airplane or other mode of transportation.  Tax law provides various ways for you to deduct a cruise.  The free report shows an example of a trip to St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands from California or New York.

Learn about IRS Regulation 1.274-4 that gives you two one-owner business friendly rules that you can use to your benefit:

1:  The United States means the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
2: Transportation cost to a foreign destination for seven days or less, excluding the day of departure, is not subject to an allocation between business and personal days.

In the example if you fly to Miami, Florida, board a cruise ship that will take five days to arrive at St. Thomas your deductions will include the cost of:

1 :  Travel to Miami
2:   Cruise ship fare to St. Thomas (not to exceed tax law’s luxury boat limits that range in 2014 from a low of $566 to $680 per day, depending on the dates of travel)
3:   Food and lodging in St. Thomas
4:   Airfare to Miami
5 :  Travel from Miami to home

You have to admit, tax knowledge can be fun which is why I want to send you this free report.

I specialize in “nuts and bolts” tax strategies that bring tax law to life so that business taxpayers and professional tax advisers can put the law to work for them.  In fact, my mission is to clarify taxes so that you take control of your money.

Plucking common sense from the tax law is time consuming and difficult work.  Yet, after more than 25 years, I still get great satisfaction when I can clarify and extract tax dollars from the tax law not only for your pockets but also to add to your net worth.  In fact I have extracted over 400 tax savings tips and would like to share the most important lessons with you so am creating a course that will share seven tax secrets each month for the next year.

Sincerely,

Conrad Oertwig

Learn how to have a tax advantaged one person or family owned micro business.

Conrad has dozens of tax savings secrets he will explain at our October 17-18 Value Investment Seminar.   To help you get an early start, we will send you Conrad’s report “7 Secrets to Paying Less Tax… for the One-Owner Business”, when you enroll in the seminar.

Get seminar details here

 

Medical Inflation


What has the worst potential to ruin quality of life?   I believe it is medical inflation.  This problem of rising cost and lowered quality goes beyond just destroying our health.  The horrifying statistics below show why.

chicago tribune

Chicago Tribune 1942.

I came across this information while researching my latest report, The Silver Dip 2015.  I wanted to answer the question, “What is the real value of  silver?”

There are so many pros and cons about whether precious metals will rise or fall, that I wanted to keep the process simple.  I figured the easiest way to see real value is by comparing purchasing power.  I wanted to see how many ounces of silver it took to buy certain basics in the past compared to now.  If a hundred ounces of silver would buy a car or a tenth of a house 75 years ago, what would it buy now?  If it bought more then, it is likely undervalued.   If it bought less, then the price of silver would be too high.

My research had me looking at the cost of everything over many time periods. The goal was to get a handle on real inflation so this one article in the March 31, 1942 issue of the Chicago tribune (1) intrigued me.

The article says:  Randolph Paul, tax adviser to Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morganthau suggested that deductions be permitted for extraordinary medical excesses.  He mentioned that 5 percent of net income as a normal medical outlay .

Normal health care costs were 5% of an American family’s outlay at that time.  Today this percentage is stated to be between 18% and rising.  How could this be?

A US Bureau of Labor Statistics report entitled  “100 years of price change” (2) shows that after WWII health care was the fastest rising annualized increase of selected components in the cost of living from 1951–1968:

Food, 1.3 percent
Rent, 2.0 percent
Apparel, 1.2 percent
Medical care, 3.8 percent
Transportation, 2.1 percent
Services, 3.2 percent
Commodities, 1.1 percent
Gasoline, 1.9 percent

Medical care continued to have one of the highest rates of inflation in 1968-1983:

Food, 7.1 percent
Energy, 9.9 percent
All items less food and energy, 7.0 percent
Rent, 5.7 percent
Apparel, 4.2 percent
Medical care, 8.4 percent
Transportation, 7.3 percent
Services, 8.2 percent
Commodities, 6.6 percent
Gasoline, 9.1 percent

Then medical care costs really took off.   Here are some overall numbers from justfacts.com (3)

Between 1960 and 2009, healthcare spending in the United States increased:

• from a yearly average of $147 per person to $8,086 (by 55 times).

• from a yearly average of $1,082 per person in inflation-adjusted 2010 dollars to $8,218 (by 7.6 times).

• from 5.2% of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) to 17.8% (by 3.4 times).

Let’s think about this.  In 1942, the price for a maternity room averaged around $7.00 per day or about $100 a day if adjusted for inflation.  Today, the price for a maternity room can zoom up to $1,500 per day.

This appears to be getting worse!

A recent Finance.yahoo article shows that in 2015 there was “An eyebrow-raising jump in the prices of medical care that helped boost the Consumer Price Index” (4).   The jump was so high it surprised economists and health-care experts, who could not figure out what’s driving the large increase.

One expert told CNBC that after looking at a decade’s worth of data, and after speaking to half a dozen economists and health-care analysts about the medical care cost increase in April 2015, a major cause appeared to be hikes in the prices of hospital services.

The medical care index rose 0.7 percent in April compared to the overall Consumer Price Index rising just 0.1 percent for the month.  Hospital services rose 1.9 percent for the month which equals a nearly 24 percent annual rate of hospital services inflation.

However, rising unacceptable costs in US medical services have not brought us better medical care.  According to the Commonwealth Fund survey, US healthcare ranks dead last compared to 10 other developed countries. (5)   Americans pay more and get less.  This fact is growing worse.  This is why learning how to avoid the health care system and maintain natural good health grows in importance for a good quality of life.

Gary

Good health is a vital component in everlasting wealth.  This is why our Value Investing Seminar has one session on how to have good natural health.

Gain From Pandemics – Riots & Election Volatility

On top of the pandemic… and the riots, another election on its way… all the robo calls from politicians… the dirty tricks and the innumerable amounts of nonsense this vital process brings.

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure, there will be volatility in stock markets during the election process.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   A market correction was due regardless of the party or the person in office and COVID-19 was a pretty good excuse for it to suddenly drop.  Expect plenty more volatility.  Whether the economy recovers slowly or quickly, history suggests that the US market will do a lot of moving up and down.

Second the new politics has created an uncertain era.  Everyone has been shaken over the past three years whether they are pleased with the government or not.

Nothing frightens markets like uncertainty. 

What more could we ask for… an uncertain COVID-19 future and riots in 30 major cities.

Well interest rates could be a dark horse.  I the massive government handouts create inflation, interest rates will rise and rising interest rates will push stock market prices down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the strong US dollar and undervalued non dollar stock markets to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies are the best way to profit long term, through good politics and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.

However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 plus years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) www.nyti

 

(1)  archives.chicagotribune.com 1942 tax credit for unusual medical costs

(2) www.bls.gov One hundred years of price change

(3)  www.justfacts.com healthcare costs

(4) Finance.yahoo.com medical cost inflation hits 8 year high

(5)  www.forbes.com us healthcare ranked dead last