Tag Archive | "income inequality"

Civil War II – The Cost of Trading Down


Over the last 52 years I have been involved in global economic activity, mostly while residing either on US or British soil.

During that time I  have never seen quite as much polarity in the USA or in the UK.

It’s like Civil War II.

Why?

boris johnson

Boris Johnson

Donald trump

Donald Trump

Could it be hairdos?

The hair is probably not the point nor should it be.

The fact that mainstream media focuses on the hair and looks and other irrelevant information is more the issue.

In both the US and Britain, huge tensions are being based around emotions created by unimportant information rather than on issues.  This makes Winston Churchill’s quote about voters all too correct.

Churchill said:  “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

Sadly politcans think this is true and try to lead through distorted stories.

Author Yuval Noah Harari, in his missive 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, clarified an important point:  “Humans think in stories rather than in facts, numbers, or equations, and the simpler the story, the better.”

This creates a problem.  Politicians think that voters have to be told a simple story, so they dumb down important, complex messages so they don’t get across enough of the tale.

I saw a prime example of this in NPR’s coverage of the recent Supreme Court hearings when one speaker spoke about the issue of allowing felons to vote.  He started off talking about how Democrats wanted to let murders and rapists vote.  That theme remained throughout the speech.  There was no mention of the fact that a majority of felons are not murders or rapists and huge numbers are solid citizens caught up in drug problems.

I felt insulted that anyone would think I would buy into such a distorted story!

I believe that one root of these tensions both in the US and UK is “Trading Down”.   Brexit and Trump are popular with the disenfranchised middle class who have seen the quality of their lifestyles erode as politicians and big businesses work together to make a few people, who prey on the middle class, rich.

One of many examples why the middle class should be angry is zero interest rates on her investments and savings.

Banks like JP Morgan Chase, pay nothing on middle class savings.  But they still charge really high interest on credit cards.  The middle class lifestyle is being whittled down by losses on their savings and high payments on their debts.  Even though banks like this have been shown (and fined billions) to cheat their customers again and again, they have been given billion dollar bailouts of public money during hard times.  The CEOs in charge are still on the job.  What is worse is they are paid huge sums that seem to increase yearly.

This trading down of values is true on the political scene as well.  Take Harry S. Truman as an example.  President Truman stated that he would never involve himself in “any transaction, however respectable, that would commercialize on the prestige and dignity of the office of the presidency.”

After his term, he lived modestly so he could get by on a $112.56 monthly Army pension and his savings.  It is said he saved as much as 20 or 25 percent of his $75,000 annual compensation (from April 1945 to January 1949, and $100,000 thereafter).

Truman’s net worth was estimated to be $750,000 so only his prudent retirement planning and modest living habits provided for an adequate retirement.

The Clinton family on the other hand who had a negative net worth when Bill Clinton left the presidency (due to legal fees related to the Monica Lewinsky affair) make tens of millions a year.

When middle class Americans (or British) see those who should be serving them, taking advantage; they become angry, especially when the middle class lifestyles are being eroded.

“Trading Down” is a great unsettling change.

The Brexit and Trump arguments are symptoms of such a change in the Western World that we could call it Civil War II.   I nor anyone knows how it will turn out, but there are practical ways to make sure that we are not ruined by the battle.

One of the most important steps is to seek value.  For example the UK and US political struggles have the potential to bring bad and good.

However the UK Stock Market reflects the risk where as the US market does not.  Look at these figures from a recent lesson about value investing in our Purposeful investing Course (Pi).

Both the US and UK face many unknown factors.  The UK market reflects these risks.  Look at the fundamentals.  According to the analysis of Keppler Asset Management shares in the US market are selling at a premium of 3.96 times book value.

The UK market is selling at 1.41 times book value.  The average dividend yield of the US market is 1.63%. The UK is more than double at 3.90%.

Compare the US and UK, as of Sep. 30, 2020 below.

keppler

Both markets offer great long term opportunity with short term risk.

The UK has a good risk reward ratio.  The US does not.

Is one guaranteed to rise more than the other? 

No one knows but the Top Value strategy we research in our Pi course shows that investing into a diversified equally-weighted combination of top value markets during times of turmoil and tension offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

This is the best way to protect against risk and increases the odds for profit.

Gary

Coronavirus and the Stock Market Round Two

Coronavirus and the stock market.  Round Two is coming.

This virus and the market faced off in the spring.  The market won.  As the chart below shows, after a huge March 2020 collapse,the DJIA is almost back to its December 2019 level.

stocks

The market’s back up, but history suggests that we’ll see volatility in the ten years ahead.

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  The .dotcom bubble burst just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

The market then went nowhere from 2000 to 2014.   Finally it started reaching new high levels.

Such decades long sideways movement after a severe correction is nothing new in the stock market.

So everything’s in order… except the pandemic.  The ravages of the coronavirus dramatically increase the unknown and this uncertainty is the greatest purveyor  of weakness that a stock market can have.

Such delays have profound implications for older generations who may need to cash in equities for income.  How do we maximize the return on your savings and investments during this extremely dangerous time?

For the past five years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain income and appreciation from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) to determine which markets offer the best value so we can be in a perfect position to take advantage of stock market corrections all over the world.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: Austria, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

You can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but during the pandemic to introduce you to this online course  I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy, diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

 

 

Profit From Income Inequality


Here is a way to profit from income inequality and eliminate it at the same time.  Income inequality isn’t all bad, IF a large percentage of the population have a chance to attain it.

gary scott

Two grandsons are visiting.  This is Leo teaching me how to read.  The young ones seem so advanced!  Being with them always sets me to thinking, “what can we do to assure that their life will be as good and better than ours”.

The US is a pretty great place from this point of view.  There is great opportunity.  Look at some of America’s wealthiest people,  Jeff Bezos, Larry Page, Mark Zuckerberg, Sergy Brin. These are young people who did not inherit their wealth.

There is a wave before them, Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, Laurene Jobs and the Waltons.  We do not see the greatest wealth still in the hands of the Carnegies, Astors, Fords and such.  Don’t get me wrong, they may still be very rich, but each generation has seen new wealth rise to the top.

A study in 2014 found that the billionaire population grew by 7% that year, 83%  were self-made businessmen and that most had attain the ten figure mark before age 50.

Seniors are seeing some benefits as well.  A Wall Street Journal article “When Older People Do Better Than Those of Working Age” (1) explains that in the past five years the gap between the incomes of those over 65 and the younger population has narrowed significantly in Europe and America.

The average person 65 and older in the U.S. earns 77% of the average income.  That an improvement from 69% in 2008, at the start of the last recession. The United Kingdom is even better, up at 89% from 78%. In Spain and France, seniors now earn about 103% and 102% of the average income.

This senior gain is in part a reflection of the overly optimistic promises given to baby boomers.

So income inequality is good for many, but a lot of statistics suggest that the wealth is not being spread around enough.

Those on the positive end of income inequality may feel good about their growing prosperity, but the growing inequality for a few is creating stress in government pension systems while highlighting the wage struggles of younger workers.   Income inequality does not work long term and eventually the system will break down.

The first step in overcoming income inequality is to find a spot in the national psyche where we can earn.   Understanding the downside of income inequality can help us earn more income ourselves as we find ways to make life better for those who have not benefited from growing wealth.

One of the best places to look is in sales.  If you look at the wealthiest in today’s generation you’ll see Jeff Bezos who created Amazon.com and drove prices down.  Take the generation before and the biggest fortune remains with the Waltons.  Add the wealth of the Waltons together and they are larger than Gates or Buffet.

This is why we focus on helping readers learn how to worte to sell.

There are two reasons to write… when you have something to say or when you have something to sell.

When the two reasons come together… magic happens… especially when you tap into the National Psyche.  Here is an excerpt from

Publishing is fun… as well as profitable… and increasingly easy when you use your competition to help you succeed.  When you are publishing online, your competition can help lead you to greater financial security and satisfaction.

Here is an excerpt from a lesson in our course on “Self Publishing… Self Fulfilled – How to Write and Self Publish”.  I hope these ideas help you find out how to profit from and eliminate income inequality.

Threading a Focus Created by Competition

Often our biggest obstacles lead us to our greatest opportunities.  Obstacles like competition are really not obstacles at all.  Successful businesses don’t see competition as a problem… they use competition for stimulation and as leverage instead.   A lot of competition is a sign that there is a big problem that many people are trying to solve.  Problems create opportunity and competition can act like a slingshot to enhance your self publishing success.

Today it is possible for anyone to have an international publishing business. The secret is simply to start, but to start slowly and grow from your existing experiences and skills.

This “go slow” approach works especially well when you start your business doing something you enjoy.  This allows you to turn your passions to profits. For example, if you love to golf, consider publishing “The Guide to the World’s Best Public Golf Courses”.  This is a publication that might even lead to organizing golf tours around the world.  We’ll look at the tour aspect a bit more in a moment.

Perhaps, your publication should be a calendar with 12 famous overseas golf courses.  A report on the best new golf clubs might be good.  If you are involved in natural health… how about “Seven Ways to Golf Yourself to Better Health”?  How about “When golf is important to you, which countries should you exclude to move to.”

The list of ideas could go on and on.   The point is you will turn pleasurable activity (to do a golf tour or a calendar, you obviously have to play those courses!) into a tax deductible expense and hopefully, make some profit as well.

This is one way to use competition to help you get ahead.  Spot two large markets… like golf and natural health.  Create a niche using both of them like perhaps “Natural Secrets that Avoid Golf Injury.”  You create a unique niche within two large areas of focus… and have two markets… the golfers and the natural health believers to tap.

This is called “A Double Niche”.  Remember the phrase because we’ll see later in the lesson how we expanded our profits and the size of our list of readers from 20,000 to 30,000 in a year in this way.

mail-chimp

Here are three simple steps, you can use to start your publishing business.

* Step #1: Become more informed.  Set a schedule. Regularly read everything you can about your area of focus. Remember, everything you read has been published by your competition!  Talk to experts (other experts if you already are) with an open mind and others involved in the area of interest.

* Step #2:  Get started in a small way.   Big is not better… especially when you start.  Make your mistakes (and you will) while your business is small. Mistakes are the magic markers in your learning curve!  Doing is a better teacher than the reading in Step #1 above.  This has been our Kindle approach using experience to help us create our plan.

For example in a moment you’ll see how one reader who attended our Writer’s Camp wrote a Quinoa Cookbook and picked up ten thousand readers in less than a week… even though the book had just 13 recipes.

* Step #3: Study your competition.  It is the confirmation that you are on the right track… that a market exists for your product, service or information.  The aspects of their service or product you hate are what you’ll avoid. What they offer that you love… you’ll make better.  The cost of their product… you’ll beat… in some way…though not necessarily with a lower price.

Let me insert an important point about pricing and profit here.   The key to maintaining profits is margin. Good margins usually mean good profits.  The way to maintaining margins is to make your product, service or publication unique.  The reason we study our competition is not to create a similar product that we sell at a lower price.  Similar products can become commodities and the only way to compete with commodities is by lowering the price.

The real reason we study competition is to understand the problem they solve and to create a unique niche within that area of focus that can be uniquely priced (with an even better margin).

Let’s review one other incredibly important point about publishing and price.  All the concepts of pricing in publishing are being thrown out the window because of epublishing.  Previously hardbound books cost $12.95 or $24.95 and  paperbacks $4.95.  With time and inflation the price doubled.  Normally 10% to 15% of this price went to the writer.  The balance was absorbed in the printing, publishing, promoting, delivery process.

When epublishing came along prices dropped in half.  You can buy most well known authors on Kindle for $12.95 or less.

This drop is not enough.  The publishing industry was dominated by the high cost of getting books to books stores. Editing, printing and shipping costs inhibited newcomers and this allowed the big publishers to be very antiquated and inefficient…. for generations.

This also left established publishers with a lack of imagination.  They were thrown into the highly competitive, rapidly evolving world of high tech… thinking like antiquated businesses spawned by Gutenberg. Cutting the price in half… when the costs of publication have dropped 80% and could drop 90% or more, is not enough.  The collapse of Borders is just the shot across the bow.  Expect more established publishers to fold!

Merri and I read fiction to relax and we like most Baldacchi and loved the Stieg Larson’s books.   I am a Reacher Creature (Lee Child) and buy most of Michael Connely’s books and get a kick out of the Wizard PI from Chicago, Harry Dresden (Jim Butcher).   However, the last three books I purchased on my Kindle were none of these names.   Chris Culver, Rick Murcer and Kate Johnson got my money instead… new names selling their books at .99 cents each. They were all good and I am increasingly hesitant to pay $12.99 for a book when I can find a good read for .99 cents.  I am betting that millions of others are feeling this way as well!

End of excerpt

This incredible drop in price is possible because in epublishing the margins are almost 100%!  Once the book is published and posted at Amazon.com, every sale is pure profit!

Amazon.com was evolutionary to spot this.  By creating their Kindle system for the new publisher they left the established author and the antiquated, established authors exposed.  The smart established authors will do okay.  They’ll simply bypass their existing publisher and go direct.

Main stream publishing was never an industry where advertising counted a lot.  Publishers threw a lot of mud…relied on word of mouth and protected that which stuck.  This is why entry via the old system was so hard.  Publishers did not know what new publication would work and were always afraid to step out…that cost too much.

The best the industry could do was put something on the shelf and at the front of the book store to try getting some buzz in the hopes that enough buyers would start a word of mouth trend.   Word of mouth remained the big marketing tool and the publishing industry again and again failed to see the next big thing coming… James Redfield (Celestine Prophesy)…  Harry Potter (JK Rowling) and the Da Vinci Code (Dan Brown) are three examples.

You do not have to be a great writer to start self publishing.  In fact no matter how golden your pen may be, being a great writer is not the key.   History is littered with great writers… and their books that were never read.

The self publishing message is this.  “Find a mission or purpose that will shake the world.  Make a big promise and deliver it!”

You do not have to be perfect to do this.  All you have to do is start.  You’ll see why in a quote from the best selling writer alive (just guess who it is) in a moment.

Where do you get the big idea?  Writing is about passion and purpose.   You won’t care what anyone says about your writing if you love to write or…  if you have a passion that writing helps you share.  The passion and purpose count. The critics and praise matter not.

You can fulfill your purpose and have a profitable writer’s career.  This mini course provides inspirational self publishing stories and shares how many beginning writers now use eCommerce to inspire and earn.  See self publishing successes below that can also be yours.

The tales in this course show how people… beginners and experienced writers alike are taking advantage of epublishing.

Yet there is a process that if you follow… you enjoy success while in pursuit of this bigger goal.

The first step in this process is to focus on a niche and create trust with the readers in that niche.  Take Merri’s and my publishing business as an example.   Our readers know that the content at our sites is about leading edge ideas related to fighting inflation, global investing, having micro businesses, natural health and being free to live anywhere.  These are all anti establishment ideas because we are both authority challenged and have always been out on the leading edge feeling our way.

Our websites create a community of like minded souls around this niche which is why we have been teaching how to self publish for over 20 years… way before Amazon.com and ebooks made the process so much easier to start.

Once a writer has become branded and has a list of readers,  it is easier to expand within the niche or to expand into others.

For example in writing about international investments, I spotted that my readers also had an interest in Ecuador and natural health.  This created two new avenues of writing for me.

Another inspiration story and lesson comes from Barry and Janae Weinhold who write only non fiction. Barry and Jane were already highly successful authors when they attended our Writer’s Camp. They wrote: We were successful authors before attending the Writer’s Camp, with our first book published in 1989 selling over 200,000 print copies. With the tips from your course last fall, we have published six new ebooks in Kindle format that are now available  at Amazon.com.

Thanks for helping us get the word out about Barry’s 2-part Breaking Family Patterns series. Janae has also released her 3-part Con Job series.

weinhold book

We’ve co-authored “How To Break Free of the Drama Triangle and Victim Consciousness.”

weinhold book

Our monthly royalty checks are now coming in and we are very pleased with the response to our new books (656 books sold and 1295 free downloads in seven months). We have six more new ebooks in the pipeline for publication.  Our goal is to publish twelve new ebooks by our one-year course anniversary. We couldn’t have published this quickly without the great support we received from your Writer’s Camp. We highly recommend it to anybody seeking the fast track to becoming independent self-publisher.

Self Publishers can also write in more than one niches.

Nickolette Goff writes non fiction in two niches.  Her first book was a Quinoa recipe cookbook with 13 recipes.  She had 10,000 downloads of the book in five days and obtained dozens of good reviews!

You can get 13 more great quinoa recipes in Nicki Goff’s book at the links below.

quinoa-book

You can order Nicki’s first book at Amazon.com.

She wrote:  Hi, Gary,  Book sales are actually going well, and I’m having a lot of fun with this. I’m so grateful to you and Merri  for pushing me to get some action going!

The free promos really get things going, and seem to reignite sales.

Two more in the works – both on gardening topics.  Best wishes for 2013 to you and Merri.   Love, Nicki

What a joy seeing how helping and connecting people helps self publishers create their own special success.  How beautiful to see friends turn their passions into profit!

Nicki learned at the camp that getting these downloads is step three in a seven step process. We (and others) have been helping Nicki and our delegates walk through these steps so they can earn income through writing and publishing again and again.

Nicki is now well on her way to wonderful self publishing success.   She just completed her fourth book in a totally different genre gardening. This book is “Under Cover Gardening”.

She used the three day free Kindle marketing program again. Read about Nicki’s new book here.

kindle book

Nicki wrote:  Gary: My book was downloaded exactly 6000 times during the 3 days, and is selling around 5 per day right now.  I’m very pleased with the results  three 5* reviews so far.  Nicki

The Process.

Chances are that most books you write will not tap into the national psyche.  However Nicki’s books show the process that you use to create a steady income as you build inventory.   She is publishing numerous books in each of the genres she loves.  This creates extra income and added inventory if one of your books becomes a big success.

Let’s look at Nicki’s example again to see these benefits. Imagine this. Nicki writes a half dozen books, three on organic gardening and three on quinoa.

Then imagine that Oprah is interested in quinoa, reads Nicki’s book and has her on the show.  Nicki’s quinoa book sales will go bananas.  So too will all her other quinoa books.   Add further to this example and say that the national psyche just happens to be focused on better nutrition when this all happens.  If so, Nicki’s organic gardening book sales will skyrocket as well.

To sum this up… write a lot.  The increased number of publications will allow you to keep your price low, but generate income that keeps you writing as you build inventory so any bigger success can grow in exponential bonds.

You can also self publish at any age.  A number of our friends who have used our writer’s course to self publish are in their 70s and 80s.  Yet college students have self published as well.

The father of the family of four wrote:  Hi Gary and Merri:  Just thought y’all would like to know that today Doss published his first book.  It is called College Confidential and it is currently listed at number 42 on amazon. com.  He would not have done it but for our experience this summer at your Writer’s Camp.

So, here is thanking you both very much.

Bill Winter

This book is written by a student, for students, College Confidential: An Insider’s Guide to Success written by Doss Winter is filled with practical tips and insider information addressing everything from Academics to getting your Zzzzs.

doss winter

Order College Confidential at Amazon.com here.

Small self publishers are in a win – win situation for many reasons.

Merri became involved in self publishing over 40 years ago… first helping a veterinarian publish a book on a very specific market… animal acupuncture. Then she showed a needle point artist how to sell more books to an even more specific audience… “needle point enthusiasts”  about her needle point work to an audience larger than the population of the city she lived in.  This led Merri to eventually become Executive Editor of an award winning magazine in Florida.  She lectured to magazine writers, editors and publishers and centered on helping them move up to award winning status as well as helping them meet their financial goals.

Our first joint book was in the early 1980s and was not a book…but a bound set of individual courses…which brought in almost a million dollars…since then we have collaborated and produced hundreds of books and reports…hoping to help others with their ideas, thoughts and projects.

My story allowed me to work and live from Hong Kong to London to Europe to Eastern Europe, then the Caribbean and then Ecuador… making millions in the process of following my adventures and having fun… while helping a large readership adapt to a rapidly changing world.

Self Publishing has created exactly the lifestyle we desire with a farm in North Carolina, orange groves and home in Florida… hotel and condos and a hacienda in Ecuador and the ability to work at what we love and enjoy.

Hard at work in Florida during the winter.

self-publishing-specific publishing

Working during the summer on our North Carolina farm.

Merri’s and my story also reflects how Self Publishing can enhance relationship.  Merri and I have not spent a night apart since we began publishing together over 30 years go.

self-publishing-specific publishing

Here we are heading up to our seminar hall at our Blue Ridge farm to speak with a group about Self Publishing.

Here’s what some of the folks who attended our self publishing seminar had to say about what they learned:

“The course fulfilled all my expectations providing all the details necessary to start a publishing business from creating the idea, through marketing including the systems necessary to implement our ideas.” — B. C., Chiropractor  California

“Gary, your system is jam packed with vital information. My head is spinning. Thank goodness this is all backed up by your manual. This is a true and cherished gift. Your tips are a blessing! Thank you once again. The value far exceeds the price.”  — B. K., Investor Pennsylvania

“The course was excellent covering all the facets of publishing. The philosophy of keeping small with no employees alone made the course invaluable. Gary and Merri, you were excellent!” — S. K., Businessman
Georgia

“Your program gave me insight on what to do with widening my client base.”
— M.E., Real Estate Broker Florida

“We found the course interesting and informative. We were inspired to start work on a booklet. When we came down, we had no idea what to publish.”
— Employed couple from New York

“Your publishing course is outstanding! Just two hours of study on Sunday alone were worth more than the course price.”
— A publisher from California

“The course helped me in three ways. #1: To realize that it is not only OK but preferable to start small. #2: A small point but with big implications was Merri’s description of how she is going to make Gary an expert in the sport’s field. #3: I feel I have a workable program to have a newsletter — my own passion!”  – T. B., Professional Washington

These are just a few of the many hundreds I’ve received from people that we have personally trained at our seminars to turn their passions into profits through publishing.

This is a special offer… our course on how to be a self publisher, 101, 202 plus our course on how to use the internet and a website in your business  and four bonuses for you.

Bonus #1: Get the 50 minute Video Workshop worth $99 “How to Start Your Own Internet Business” presented by our webmaster David Cross,

This video explains the secrets of setting up a good self publishing website.

Bonus #2: Get FREE, the $299 online course “The Tangled Webs We Weave – How to Have an Internet Business”.  To read more  about this course click here.

Bonus #3: Our Super Thinking Workshop in an MP3 file so you can listen on your computer, burn a disk or listen on you Ipod or in your car. This workshop is a recorded workshop we conducted and is a $199 value.

Bonus #4: A special report only available to those who enroll in “Self Fulfilled” entitled  “Three Secrets for Creating Publishing Ideas”.

Save $597 total Self Fulfilled Special $299   You save $200, plus if you attend a writers camp later, you’ll save $200 more.

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Order Self Publishing: Your Complete Business Plan for becoming a self publisher and take a full 30 days to put it through its paces.  That way you can follow my simple process and start seeing the results for yourself.

If you’re not completely convinced that this information is so powerful it will make your lifestyle and income soar as a self-publisher—all you have to do is let us know and  you’ll receive a complete refund of every penny of your investment.

Self Publishing has entered a new era as a new business art form and we want to share with you how to start your own  self publishing business now.

Learn how to develop your publishing skills to turn your passion into profit!  Even if you can’t write… you can publish.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it AND even create a six-figure income.  This could be your direct ticket to the kind of fulfillment you’ve always wanted in life.  Whether you want to travel the world or live as a recluse, work 12 hours a day or not work at all, learn more about golf or feeding the hungry… it can be yours if you’re willing to learn.

* How to use the internet to publish

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Despite income inequality, the Great American Dream Still Exists!

Our publishing business has brought us more wealth, satisfaction, fun and friendship than we ever imagined possible. And now we want to share our knowledge and secrets with anyone who has a desire to experience this way of life.

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Don’t miss this special opportunity. Order Self Fulfilled:  How to be a Self Publisher today if you want to cash in on the satisfying, profitable and exciting lifestyle that publishing can bring despite and in fact because of trouble in the world.

Sincerely,

Gary Scott

Writer and Self Publisher

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Civil War II – Another Reason for Trading Down


Over the last 50 years ( as of May 2016) I have been involved in global economic activity while residing either on US or British soil.  During that time I  have never seen quite as much polarity in the USA or in the UK.  It’s like Civil War II.  Why?

boris johnson

Boris Johnson

Donald trump

Donald Trump

Could it be hairdos?

The hair is probably not the point nor should it be.  The fact that mainstream media focuses on the hair and looks and other irrelevant information is more the issue.  In both the US and Britain huge tensions are being based around emotions created by unimportant information rather than on issues.  This makes Winston Churchill’s quote about voters all too correct when he said:  “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

In the UK,  could it be that Brexit is the big polarizing conversation?  Should the UK stay in or opt out of the European Union?  If they exit, the most likely new Prime Minister will be Boris Johnson (who by the way is an American but last year said he was renouncing his citizenship).  I have been watching my family who live in England argue back and forth the merits of Britain in and out of the union.  As far as I can tell, they cancel each other’s votes. We should go fishing instead.

In the US is the polarity over The Donald?  Should he be in or out?  What an incredible, huge controversy!  In fact the divide is so wide that couples are breaking up according to the Wall Street Journal article “Till Death—or Donald—Do Us Part: Couples Spar Over Trump.  Discord over GOP front-runner is making some marriages rocky”. (1)  (More on marriages in a moment.)  Brothers against brothers, husbands against wives, just like in the Civil War.

I believe that one root of these tensions both in the US and UK is “Trading Down”.   Brexit and Trump are popular with the disenfranchised middle class who have seen the quality of their lifestyles erode as politicians and big businesses work together to make a few people, who prey on the middle class, rich.

One of many examples why the middle class should be angry is zero interest.  Banks like JP Morgan Chase, pay nothing on middle class savings.  But they still charge really high interest on credit cards.  The middle class lifestyle is being whittled down by losses on their savings and high payments on their debts.  Even though banks like this have been shown (and fined billions) to cheat their customers again and again, they have been given billion dollar bailouts of public money during hard times.  The CEOs in charge are still on the job.  What is worse is they are paid huge sums that seem to increase yearly.

For example, according to the Columbus Dispatch:  From 2009 into 2015 JP Morgan Chase paid $38 billion in 22 settlements.  For example in one settlement last year the bank agreed to pay $136 million to settle charges that it used illegal tactics to go after delinquent credit-card borrowers. (2)

Despite this, according to USA Today (3) JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon received a $7 million dollar raise in 2015, even as Wall Street braced for more cuts to jobs.  Dimon, who ran Chase when he was paid $27 million in 2015, up from $20 million the year before.

This lack of accountability at the top and this type of unfair compensation makes honest, hard working Americans (and Brits) mad.

This trading down of values is true on the political scene as well.  Take Harry S. Truman as an example.  President Truman stated that he would never involve himself in “any transaction, however respectable, that would commercialize on the prestige and dignity of the office of the presidency.”

After his term, he lived modestly so he could get by on a $112.56 monthly Army pension and his savings.  It is said he saved as much as 20 or 25 percent of his $75,000 annual compensation (from April 1945 to January 1949, and $100,000 thereafter).

Truman’s net worth was estimated to be $750,000 so only his prudent retirement planning and modest living habits provided for an adequate retirement.

The Clinton family on the other hand who had a negative net worth when Bill Clinton left the presidency (due to legal fees related to the Monica Lewinsky affair) made more than $30 million since January 2014 and have, according to financial filings) between $5 million and $25 million invested in a JP Morgan Chase cash account.  They also have between $5 million and $25 million invested in a Vanguard 500 index fund.

When middle class Americans (or British) see those who should be serving them, taking advantage; they become angry, especially when the middle class lifestyles are being eroded.   This may explain why warnings about Trump from political leaders, such as Romney, do not go far.  The public simply no longer believes anyone.

A big cultural shift in marriage is another reason for “Trading Down” in the middle class.

Tension in politics may be stressing some marriages, but the changing nature of marriage is also contributing to “Trading Down”.  In the 1950s men sought homemakers, and women sought breadwinners.  But as women’s roles changed people marry others they enjoy spending time with, and that tends to be people like themselves.  An Economist article (4) provides an analogy: “In 1950s The Don Drapers of the world used to marry their secretaries. Now they marry fellow executives, who could very well earn more than they do.”  This is called “Assortative Mating”.  People marry people like themselves, with similar education and earnings potential and the values and lifestyle that come with them.

With more marriages of equals, reflecting deep changes in American families and society at large, the country is becoming more segregated by class.

“Husbands and wives had different roles in different spheres, so that was the opposites-attract view of marriage.” Today you want people with shared passions, similar interests to you, similar career goals, similar goals for the kids. People who are married tend to be more advantaged, and on top of that, more advantaged people are marrying people like themselves, so those people tend to be doubly advantaged.”

“Trading Down” is a great unsettling change.

The Brexit and Trump arguments are symptoms of such a change in the Western World that we could call it Civil War II.   I nor anyone knows how it will turn out, but there are practical ways to make sure that we are not ruined by the battle.

One of the most important steps is to seek value.  For example the UK and US political struggles have the potential to bring bad and good.  As investors, the Golden Rule of Investing #1 “There is always something we do not know” applied.

However the UK Stock Market reflects the risk where as the US market does not.  Look at these figures from a recent lesson about value investing in our Purposeful investing Course (Pi).

Both the US and UK face many unknown factors.  The UK market reflects these risks.  Look at the fundamentals.  According to the analysis of Keppler Asset Management shares in the US market are selling at a premium of 1.29 times book value. The UK market is selling at a discount of  .80 times book value.  The overall US PE ratio is 1.08 compared t0 .84 and the average dividend yield of the US market is .84%. The UK is almost double at 1.62%.

Keppler Asset Management analysis

Compare it to the UK.

Keppler Asset Management analysis

Both markets offer great long term opportunity with great short term risk.  The UK has a good risk reward ratio.  The US does not.  Is one guaranteed to rise more than the other?  No one knows but the Top Value strategy we research in our Pi course shows that investing into a diversified equally-weighted combination of top value markets during times of turmoil and tension offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.  This is the best way to protect against risk and increases the odds for profit.

Gary

(1)   http://www.wsj.com/articles/till-deathor-donalddo-us-part-couples-spar-over-trump-1456362831

(2) http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/business/2015/07/16/fine-despite-fines.html

(2) http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/01/21/jpmorgan-ceo-gets-pay-raise-35-27m/79132018/

(4) http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21595972-how-sexual-equality-increases-gap-between-rich-and-poor-households-sex-brains-and

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary