Tag Archive | "gold"

How to Value Silver & Gold


US Federal National Debt per American was about $60,923  in 2017.  Today it is $82,586 and… rising by the day.

A reader sent me this note last week.

Hi Gary…I really enjoy reading your emails regarding investing and about life in general. I would like to make note of something you mentioned in this emails and others in the past. When you compare stocks to other investments over time, gold in particular, I think is more proper to compare stocks to gold from the time when we went off the gold standard in August of 1971. Prior to that, gold and our dollar were fixed to each other. When you compare stocks to gold from August 1971 to present, you will see that gold has outperformed our market. I realize you are probably aware of this and it may be splitting hairs, but I do think it is important to make that distinction. Thanks,

That reminded me of the message below last sent in 2017.  This seems like a good time to remind you of it again.

I have updated some of the most important points (and noted so when I have) but otherwise these figures relate to 2017.  The US government has in these last  three years  had the highest annual deficits in history.

What is the real value of gold?  Everyone should have a holding in precious metals, but as an investor who started accumulating (and speculating in) gold almost 50 years ago, I have learned (often the hard way) that precious metals should be mostly accumulated when their price makes them a good value.  Even then, one must expect the price to rise and fall in unexpected ways.

This begs the question, “When does gold’s price represent good value?”   Today I am sending you a deep analysis, based on these 50 years of experience, of gold’s pricing in terms of inflation that hopefully helps answer this question.   This research is part of a $39.99 report, but I am sending it to you free and without obligation.

gold

Cuban 1/10th ounce gold coins

A collapsing US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health and wealth.  There are many signs that the greenback’s strength is in serious jeopardy. 

One frightening statistic is the hundreds of billions of trade deficit that the US incurs year after year.

Many other factors such as growing federal budget deficits and low national savings mean that trade deficits are likely to widen even more.

In the past decade US debt more than doubled beyond all the debt of the US  Department of the Treasury since 1790.  The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the rate of  debt will continue to rise for at least ten more years.

2020 has seen record US government deficits. The deficit in one month alone in 2020 almost equaled the previous worst federal deficits… for a year.

That debt does not include state and local debt.  That debt does not include agency debt (debt issued by federal agencies and government-sponsored enterprises) which is “guesstimated” to be another $8.6 trillion or so.

These dreadful numbers do not include unfunded liabilities such as Social Security and Medicare.

A look at the US Debt Clock usdebtclock.org in late November 2020 shows that the Federal National Debt per person is about $82,526.   Add in all the other debt and every American owes over $100,000!

debt clock

How can America pay this back?  The answer is they cannot.  Payback,  however, actually does not matter.  No one expects the US to pay back their debt.

Investors do expect the US to pay interest on its debt and this creates the really big problem of rising national debt service

During most of the last decade when the national debt was skyrocketing, interest rates were plunging and have remained really low.  Now rates are expected to rise as will the US debt service.  The chart from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows that debt service is expected to more than triple in the next ten years.

dollar charts

This is an extra half trillion dollars a year that won’t be spent on roads, on the military, on health care, the environment or schools.  That rising debt service creates a vicious cycle that can only lead to a devaluation of the US dollar so the debt can be paid, but in phony terms.  This is why investors need to own gold and precious metals.

However, because metals are commodities and markets fluctuate for many reasons,  gold is not always a good value.

Good value investors look for “ideal conditions” before they invest long term in gold.   There are times when a rare distortion in gold’s pricing occurs.   When gold’s price drops to a point of value history has shown it will “almost always” rise.  The only question is time.

The words “almost always” indicates that there is risk.  There is always risk that a basic fundamental has changed and will not correct in any targeted period of time.   Or a new fundamental has shifted dynamics to such an extent that the distortion never corrects.   There is always risk.  Profit is the reward for taking that risk, but there is always a chance of loss which is why we should always seek a price that represents good value.

The way to look for gold’s ideal price is to compare it to inflation.  

This is not as easy as inflation is hard to define.  Also gold’s price was fixed for many years at $35 an ounce.  There is confusion as to what the real price of gold should have been at the end of the war.

These factors distort the accuracy of the answer to… “How much is gold really worth now? What is its real value?”

Here are a few theories that can help us understand the relationship between the price of gold and cost of living.

First, we use gold’s 1944 price and the costs of houses and cars and wages at the same time.  Since the mid 1940s, US median income increased 29 times.  House prices rose 47 times.  The cost of cars jumped 36 times.

Gold was up 35 times in the same period from $35 to $1,235 an ounce.

If these conclusions are accurate,  it means that gold was a reasonable hedge against inflation.  Had you stored a pile of this precious metals in 1942 to buy a car, now you could do it.  A house maybe not, but the statistical house purchased today might be very different from the statistical house purchased in the mid 1940s.

The gold/cost of living relationship is true for the cost of going to a movie, up 33 times.  Apartment rentals are up 34 times as well.

But other basics have inflated far less.  Gas is up 19 times, but of course bounces around a lot.  Postage 16 times.  Bread 21 times.  Sugar 10 times. Hamburger about 13 times.  Coffee  11 times.  Eggs 13 times increase.  Milk 16 times.

Gold failed for keeping up with education.  The biggest increase is for Harvard tuition, up 107 times.  Or does this mean that a Harvard education has become a really lousy value?  (Well, that’s a question for another time.)

This first comparison suggests that gold is not necessarily badly undervalued at a price of $1,225.   If the conclusions of the inflation are correct, this first comparison suggests that anytime gold drops below $1,225 it is likely a fair value, priced about where it should be in relationship to other costs of living.

Second Comparison

inflation

Another way of looking at inflation is to lump all the price increases together.  In this instance (according to the inflation calculator website that uses the graph above)  prices overall have risen 13.7 times since the end of WWII.

This second comparison would suggest that gold, up 35 times, has risen far more than inflation and is not a good value at $1,225.  However, because the price of gold was fixed at $35 an ounce, the original price must be suspect.

Third Comparison

If we use the 1944 inflation rate and compare it to the price of gold in 1971, we see a value conclusion similar to comparison #1.  Gold is a fair value at around $1,225.

Why 1971?  That’s the year President Nixon told the Fed to stop honoring the dollar’s value in gold.  That meant foreign central banks could no longer exchange their dollars for U.S. gold, essentially taking the dollar off the gold standard.  Unhinged from the dollar, gold quickly shot up to $120 per ounce in the open market.  This $120 price is a glimpse of what the correct price of gold may have been in the mid 1940s.

If this third theory is correct, the price of gold has risen from $120 to $1,225, up about ten times, less than the 13.7 times inflation from 1945.

On the other hand, gold’s price rise from 1971 is still much higher than inflation from 1971 until now.  The inflation calculator website’s chart below shows inflation since 1971 has pushed prices up 5.8 times.  This would suggest that gold around $696 an ounce would be a good value.

inflation

However, since the $35 an ounce gold fixing obscures the true price rise, if we split the price half way between the $35 and 1971 price ($120), we get perhaps a more accurate view.  The adjusted price is $77.   If $77 was a more accurate real value for gold in the mid 1940s, then its price has risen 15 times and is in line with the 13.7 times cost of living increase.

Fourth Comparison

The fourth comparison uses a chart from Macrotrends.com that shows the price of gold since 1905 without adjusting for inflation.

inflation

The same site has this chart showing the price of gold based adjusted to the Consumer Price Index.

inflation

In this comparison, gold’s actual price is almost the same as it adjusted purchasing power price, around $1,235.

Conclusion

The comparisons above are indicators that the price of gold is likely to continue rising and falling along the cost of living increases from a current fair value of $1,225. 

This is the premise we use in our good value investing course Pi, that it’s good to speculate in gold when it costs $1,225 an ounce or less.

We keep the $696 price in mind when we calculate potential draw downs, in case the assumption of a $1,225 fair gold price turns out to be horribly wrong.

These comparisons crystallize the fact that there is risk when it comes to speculating in gold.   They remind us never to speculate more than we can afford to lose or at least hold for extended periods of times.  They also remind us not to catch a gold fever when gold soars past $2,000 or we read about the potential of $5,000 an ounce gold!

Eventually the huge American debt will fire up inflation again and that will eventually turn into mega inflation.  Then gold prices may shoot that high.  In the interim whenever gold drops below $1,225, it’s probably a good value and investors who accumulate below that price will do well.

There are other ways to cash in on precious metals.  One approach is to keep an eye on the Gold Silver ratio.  When the Gold Silver Ratio reaches 80 and gold is at or below $1,225 a speculation in silver is most likely to be a good value.

silver

The gold silver ratio chart above shows why silver was such a good investment in 2019/2020.

This value indicator is simple because the gold silver ratio is rarely as high as 80, only three times in 36 years as the chart below shows.

gold silver spread

Chart from www.goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html#36_year_gold_price

The spread hit 80 in 2015 and again in March 2016, but we can see from the chart above that a drop in the spread was on its way.   The trend was for a continued lowering of the spread as silver’s price rise was much stronger than gold’s throughout 2016.

Then in 2019 that ratio shot to unheard of highs.

This chart below from infomine.com shows the trend clearly.

http://www.infomine.com/investment/price-ratios/gold-silver/10-year/

There are numerous ways to invest in gold and silver, as a short term speculation for quick profit or for long term accumulation to combat the fall of the dollar or whatever currency you hold.   America is not the only country with an overvalued currency.  Whichever approach you choose, if you apply these value principles,  your odds of increasing profit and avoiding serious loss improve.

Gary

Add Safety, Profit & Get Paid Double

The next four years will be a period of high overseas stock growth.

The chart below shows the last 26 years of real-time forecasting by the global equity analyst we track to make our portfolio decisions.

The analyst is Keppler Asset Management and the index they create The KAM Equally Weighted World Index is 15.4% below the value that the analyst forecast four years ago in September 2016.

The chart shows how in the past, two and a half decades there have been four opportunities (red Xs) when the entry levels in global markets were below or around the lower valuation band.  In the previous three low points like this, there has always been the highest growth and positive returns three to five years later.

keppler

 

So it’s good to know that if you invest in global stock markets overall, now, you’ll make capital gains over the next four or five years.

More importantly you get paid more income now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not in 2020.

This year equities have been paying a higher yield than bonds.

As of November 2020, according to Ycharts.com, (1)  AA bond yields are at 1.59%.

ycharts.com

 

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.68% as of November 2020 .  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.59% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact US shares pay one of the lousiest average yields of the 46 stock markets we, via Keppler, monitor around the world.

Eight solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay more than double the average US yield.  They pay  3.57% compared to the US yield of 1.68%.

keppler

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years.

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only five times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course uses Keppler analytics to track 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Pi teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for most stock markets around the world.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of higher performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) Ycharts.com corporate bond yields

 

How to Invest Now


Be careful.  Short term impact from pandemic stimulus can obscure a long term economic cloud.

Let the month of August be a reminder… to beware.

Is the year 2020 the beginning of the Roaring 20s?  Or is it the end.  The answer could have a huge and prolonged impact on your finances.

For example in August 1929 (91 years ago) the Dow Jones Industrial average soared to 5696.  Then the boom ended and that level was not reached again for nearly 30 years.  By August 1959, the Dow was 5895.

stock chart

The red Xs on this www.microtrends.net chart show the Dow fro 1929 to 1959

The Roaring 20s have a lot of similarities to recent years. The President (Warren G. Harding) came into office with a slogan much like “Make America Great Again” ( the slogan was “bring back normalcy”).

The 20s (then) had seen huge technological advancement made available to the public (automobiles, telephones, movies, radio, and electrical appliances and the beginning of aviation as a business). There was rapid industrial and economic growth, creating jobs and raising wages so a much lager public had money to save and invest.

The public decided to put a lot of that savings in the stock market because the 1920s was also the first time the public began to believe that US dollar, which had been losing purchasing power, would not gain back its value.

The consumer price index was used for the first time in 1919, to track big inflation of the previous several years after WWI. Since 1913 the cost of ordinary things had more than doubled.  The dollar had recovered from previous inflations after previous wars but this time the reduction in purchasing power stuck.

This was the first time that the dollar had not held its value in the long term. The public saw that the greenback had and would continue to lose a substantial part of its purchasing power forever.

This led to the public’s participation in stocks in the 1920s and reduced traditional forms of saving cash and coin.

pixabay

Credit for the Model T, priced at $260, was a stimulus in the roaring 20s.

The low interest rates created by the Great Recession of 2007 has created a similar push on investors to get into the stock market or other inflation fighting investments.

That stimulus has certainly been good for Merri and me.

Our hands off value stock portfolio has produced better dividends than the bank and given some great capital gains.

Our real estate investments which are more hands on have done even better.  Years ago I published the first edition of “Live Anywhere-Earn Everywhere” that recommended investing in Lake County Florida and Ashe County North Carolina.

We did as we recommended and this has turned out especially well.  In some cases the price of property we purchased has doubled. The real estate markets in both counties are super hot!

The success creates a big question. Are we at the beginning or end of the roaring 20s?

A lot of the property we have invested in no longer has a rent-price relationship that makes any sense.  Property prices have shot up much faster than rents can rise.

Everything I understand about economics… the deficits, debt, unemployment, suggests an economic downturn and inflation, but everything is so unpredictable, it is hard to answer the question, “should I buy or should I sell”.

I imagine this is how Precious Metals dealers felt during the 1970s price run up. I recall a $10 spread on the price of silver, $48 and ounce to buy and $38 an ounce to sell. The dealers could not trust conditions then no more than I trust conditions now.

On the subject of precious metals, If you have been buying or holding gold and silver, you have some tidy profits as well.   This leads to the same question “should I buy or should I sell” so I asked Rich Checkan, at Asset Strategies International, (1) my goto precious metals dealer what he thought.

Rich sent this reply.

rich checkan

Rich Checkan

Correction, or End of the Bull?

By Rich Checkan, President, Asset Strategies International
(800) 831-0007

Recently we shared a Market Update with you to catch you up to speed on the emergence of this current bull market in gold and silver and why we believe it will continue for some time.

Since then, gold and silver dipped in price. Which right away leads investors to ask… “Is that the end of the bull?”

Today, I’d like to give you an update on that dip, and share with you some sage advice from Bernard Baruch… and how I use that advice to ensure I never miss the top of a gold and silver bull market.

This is why I never fear bull market dips. I always embrace them.

First, the update…

Gold is up roughly 30% this year. Silver is up roughly 55% on the year. Much of both occurred over the past couple months… and actually higher percentages at the recent peaks.

Fueled by Covid-19 fears… It was too much, too fast.

Like any market, when it gets overheated, profit-taking brought the euphoria down a notch or two.

Remember, precious metals bull markets tend to last about a decade. We are either 1 year in or 4 years in, depending upon whom you ask. In both cases, we have a long way to go.

Also, the past bull market saw 650% gold appreciation, and 1,000% silver appreciation in 10 years. We are nowhere near those numbers. We still have a long way to go.

The pull-back needed to happen for the market to be healthy. Dips should be embraced, not feared. They are opportunities to buy well in this rising bull market.

Even after the pullback, gold is up 30% this year, and silver is up 55% this year. Both are just fractions of what they are expected to achieve in the end.

Stay the course…

Some Sage Advice

But, how will you know when it is the end? How will you know when it isn’t just a bull market dip?

Truth be told, you probably can’t know for sure. But, you don’t need to know either… if you take heed of the advice of sage investor, Bernard Baruch.

One of Bernard Baruch’s most inspirational quotes for me, led me to my technique for not missing the top. He said, and I paraphrase, “I don’t want the first 20% or last 20% of profits from any investment. All I want is my 60% in the middle.”

In other words, he did not invest until a trend was established, and he didn’t wait until the bitter end to sell… hoping to catch a top.

Here’s how I put that proven wisdom into action for myself…

Time for Action

I buy gold and silver for two reasons – wealth insurance and profit.

After 25 years of speaking with investors, I believe most fall into these two buying categories. (There are traders as well, but perhaps I can address that in the future.)

I’ve found that whether or not investors say they want wealth insurance or profit, they tend to all want both… just weighted toward their stated preference.

Wealth insurance is…

The store of purchasing power, with high liquidity, for a potential financial crisis they hope to never have.

Therefore, I treat my gold for wealth insurance a certain way. I keep my 10% allocation at that level at all times. I never sell it regardless of the gold price hitting new all-time highs or new short-term lows, unless I have a financial emergency. If I have one, I sell immediately to meet the need. Then, as soon as possible afterwards, I replenish to my 10% for the next potential crisis I hope I never have… at any price.

As you can see, my gold purchased for wealth insurance has no care at all about tops or bottoms. I need it always. I have it always. Period.

But, gold and silver for profit is a different story. For me, that’s another 10% to 15% of investible assets – but only in gold and silver bull markets.

Here is where I follow the wisdom of Mr. Baruch.

I wait for the trend to establish itself. This occurred in May of 2019 with gold’s break-out. Then, I buy.

As gold and silver climb in price in the bull market, I rebalance my position all along the way… along with all my other for-profit investments.

If gold or silver doubles, I sell half. No emotion. I just do it.

If I see dips, I add. No emotion. I just do it.

And, as you can imagine, if I do this all along the way, I am taking profits while I continue to participate in the bull market. As one of my mentors, Glen O. Kirsch, used to say, “Nobody ever went broke by taking a profit.”

The Top

The only tricky part of this strategy is recognizing the beginning of the bear market as opposed to another bull market dip.

I do this with the convergence of a few key signals…

1) I look for a bull market to end around the 10-year mark.

2) I look for gold to appreciate around 2 to 3 times it’s previous bull market high.

3) I look for a Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR) of 35-50. In other words, I look for it to take 35 to 50 ounces of silver to buy 1 ounce of gold.

4) I play close attention to sentiment. When everyone is talking about the money they are making in gold, you might want to locate the exit.

If we catch the top exactly, great.

If sell a little early, great.

If we sell a little late, great.

In any of those cases, I am pretty certain we would have already taken our 60% profits out of the middle.

This is how you can Keep What’s Yours in a gold and silver bull market, and never miss the top… or at least not miss it by enough to matter!

That’s good advice from Rich and I take a similar strategy with real estate.

Over the last two decades, Merri and I have invested in good value areas where the rent return ratio made sense.  Whenever we looked at a perspective purchase, our biggest question was, “how much can we rent it for”.

The way we take profits, but keep the money in the real estate market, is when a property has appreciated so much we can rent it for a reasonable return, we sell it and invest the proceeds in another property in an area we feel is undervalued where there is a reasonable rent return ratio.

In this way we keep our income flowing and continually build our capital gains potential.

We use the same strategy in our easy, low trade, slow trade, good value strategy explained below.  We monitor 46 stock markets around the world.  When a stock market (based on price to book, price earnings and average dividend yield) is a good value we invest in its MSCI Index through a country ETF.  When it falls in neutral or poor value territory (again based on  based on price to book, price earnings and average dividend yield) we sell and reinvest in good value markets.  This strategy provides maximum safety, the least in time and trading fees spent, and statistically yields the highest long term profit.

The Roaring Twenties introduced some great new products, Jazz and dancing for instance became popular.  There were many wonderful social and cultural advancements, cars, movies, the idea of broadcast.  These advances brought “modernity” to a large part of the population.

Everyone enjoyed the party… while it lasted.  The Great Depression that followed diminished that joy and pushed a ugh part of the population onto the bread lines into the soup kitchen.

So keep this question in mind as you invest… “are we are the beginning or end of the 20 Roaring 20s?”

Gary

(1) www.assetstrategies.com

Add Safety, Profit & Get Paid Double

The next four years will be a period of high overseas stock growth.

The chart below shows the last 26 years of real-time forecasting by the global equity analyst we track to make our portfolio decisions.

The analyst is Keppler Asset Management and the index they create The KAM Equally Weighted World Index is 15.4% below the value that the analyst forecast four years ago in September 2016.

The chart shows how in the past, two and a half decades there have been four opportunities (red Xs) when the entry levels in global markets were below or around the lower valuation band.  In the previous three low points like this, there has always been the highest growth and positive returns three to five years later.

keppler

 

So it’s good to know that if you invest in global stock markets overall, now, you’ll make capital gains over the next four or five years.

More importantly you get paid more income now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not in 2020.

This year equities have been paying a higher yield than bonds.

As of November 2020, according to Ycharts.com, (1)  AA bond yields are at 1.59%.

ycharts.com

 

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.68% as of November 2020 .  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.59% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact US shares pay one of the lousiest average yields of the 46 stock markets we, via Keppler, monitor around the world.

Eight solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay more than double the average US yield.  They pay  3.57% compared to the US yield of 1.68%.

keppler

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years.

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only five times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course uses Keppler analytics to track 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Pi teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for most stock markets around the world.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of higher performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) Ycharts.com corporate bond yields

 

Precious Metals Update


Here’s a gold and silver update.

With gold reaching an all time high price, you have not heard much at this site about the Silver Dip, a speculative opportunity that uses leverage when gold is priced at a good value and the gold silver ratio is above 80.

emp-terrorist-attack-protection-silver

In January 2020, we reviewed the Silver Dip and I reminded readers of the Dip’s premise when I wrote:

Here are excerpts from our “Silver Dip 2019” report:

The value indicator the “Silver Dip” used in the 1980s and 2015 and now is simple. The strategy is based on the gold-silver ratio as a main indicator that the price of silver is a good value.

The threshold we watch for is a spread of 80. When the price of gold is 80 times (or more) higher than the price of silver history this suggests that silver is undervalued to gold and will rise faster than gold.

Rarely has the ratio been as high as 80, only five times in 36 years as the chart below shows.

In 2017 Platinum was the best option for speculation and the platinum ETF PPLT was recommended for the first time due to its ideal speculative position in 2017. That idea gold platinum ratio position remained throughout 2018 (we’ll review it later in this report), but the price trend of platinum also remained negative (and PPLT was stopped out) for the entire year.

Gold at or below $1,350 is also likely a good deal and the foundation of the Value Dip strategy is that ideal conditions are best when gold is in this price range.

As a general rule, platinum is undervalued when it sells for less than gold. As the chart below shows, platinum costs more than gold much more often than not. The fundamental reasons for platinum’s high price, including platinum’s supply scarcity, support this.

This suggested that both silver and platinum would rise faster than the price of gold, but gold’s price was too high to use the leveraged Silver Dip strategy.

In hindsight speculators would have done very well… but the Silver Dip strategy is extremely leveraged so our pricing suggestions are overly conservative. This means we’ll wait before we are borrowing to speculate in precious metals.

However, this does not mean one should not be investing in gold and silver to protect against inflation and the fall of the US dollar.

The review below by my friend Rich Checkan, at Asset Strategies International (1) shows some of the reasons why gold could well rise higher and silver probably even more.

Gary

Gold and Silver… Just Getting Started

By Rich Checkan

The most common question we hear lately is, “Now that gold has breached all-time highs, what’s next?”

It’s a fair question.

Our long-time readers know we have been beating the drum for gold and silver loudly since the fall of 2018. Some of you have taken action by buying gold and silver. Some of you have not.

Those of you who have bought gold and silver are quite pleased. But, no doubt, you are wondering how much further this can go. After all, in a little over one year since gold broke out, gold has already surpassed all-time highs.

That’s fast.

Those of you who haven’t bought gold and silver yet are, no doubt, wondering whether or not you missed your chance to participate in this bull market in precious metals.

Gold

Take a look at the gold chart below.

 

gold

Historical gold prices 5 year chart

Gold struggled to break through exceptionally strong resistance at $1,300. This is the point where it consolidated on it’s way down from all-time highs of $1,921.17 in September of 2011.

This formidable resistance was finally and aggressively breached in May 2019… establishing with certainty the new bull market. Gold did not take a breather again until it was near $1,550 per ounce in about a month or two.

From there, gold stair-stepped higher until March of this year… when Covid-19 fears spread worldwide and governments essential shutdown business worldwide in reaction to the spread of the pandemic.

Gold was already on fire, and this was akin to pouring kerosene on the fire. Next stop, new all-time highs.

Silver Does What Silver Does

You have heard us say often that gold is the precious metals leader. It sets the direction for the trend and establishes the bear or bull move.

Once the trend is set – for either lower or higher prices – silver lags initially, but it eventually follows gold and outpaces the price movement in either direction.

So, the pendulum swing for low and high prices is wider for silver than it is for gold. This is something you want to avoid as precious metals trends turn bearish, and it is something you want to take advantage of as precious metals prices turn bullish.

And, thus far in this bull market, silver has not disappointed. It is acting out its script to perfection.

gold

Historical silver prices 5 year chart

Back in May of 2019, silver initially followed gold higher, but it soon retreated. This is no doubt due to silver’s role as an industrial metal – even though it is monetary as well… but to a lesser extent. Silver lagged gold.

And, the lag was historical. Typically, at the low point in a bear market, we tend to hit a peak Gold / Silver Ratio (GSR) of around 80. That means, it takes 80 ounces of silver to buy one once of gold. Before silver started sprinting higher, we hit a historical GSR peak of around 127 – 45% higher than normal!

You may recall, at that time, we were screaming about the amazing profit potential in silver.

Then, as gold prices started moving higher this past spring, silver started to follow it higher. And, according to script, it accelerated its pace as it caught-up to gold in percentage gain.

Right now, for the year, gold is up 32%. Silver is up 42%.

Compare that to equities. The DJIA is down 7%. The S&P 500 is up 2%. The Nasdaq is up 22%.

How High Can Gold and Silver Go?

Great question… often asked every day. Alas, we have no crystal balls either.

But, we do have a bit of history, some current considerations, and a reasonable rationale for what is possible.

Historically, bull markets in precious metals tend to be long. The previous two bull markets (1971 to 1980 and 2001 to 2011) lasted about a decade each. And, both were similar and significant in terms of gold and silver appreciation.

From 2001 to 2011, gold appreciated 650% – an average return of 65% per year for a decade. During the same period, silver appreciated 1,000% – an average per year of 100% for ten years.

Further, we would be foolish if we did not consider the future of the U.S. dollar. In response to the financial crisis of 2008 to 2009, the government expanded the money supply at unprecedented levels. So, it was no surprise to see price inflation as represented by a new all-time high gold price at $1,921.17 and a matching of the all-time high silver price at around $50.00.

This time around, the monetary expansion through stimulus already (with much more expected in addition) makes the reaction to the 2008 to 2009 crisis seem quite tame.

Rationally, it is not a stretch to see gold attain new highs somewhere between $3,000 and $4,000 per ounce. Silver should have no trouble touching previous highs at $50 per ounce.

Further, given the length of previous precious metals bull markets, it is entirely reasonable to see this market last for another eight to nine years.

Fear of Missing Out – FOMO

Again, no crystal balls. But, it would appear this particular fear is unfounded in early August 2020.

There are simply too many uncertainties…

Pandemic – and the economy’s ability to survive it
U.S. Presidential Election cycle
U.S. / Chinese tensions
Social crisis
Other lesser threats too numerous to list here

I expect to see global economies transition from deflationary pressures, to recession, to stagflation as inflationary pressures build. As that plays out, I fully expect gold and silver to cost more dollars in the future.

How can they not?

So, congratulations to those who acted since we started “screaming” in 2018.

And, for anyone looking to buy gold and silver going forward, I firmly believe…

Your wealth insurance premium for gold is still very low.
Your profit potential for silver is still very high.
Owning both gold and silver now is the best way I know for you to Keep What’s Yours!

Rich Checkan

Phone: (800) 831-0007 – email: infoasi@assetstrategies.com

Add Safety, Profit & Get Paid Double

The next four years will be a period of high overseas stock growth.

The chart below shows the last 26 years of real-time forecasting by the global equity analyst we track to make our portfolio decisions.

The analyst is Keppler Asset Management and the index they create The KAM Equally Weighted World Index is 15.4% below the value that the analyst forecast four years ago in September 2016.

The chart shows how in the past, two and a half decades there have been four opportunities (red Xs) when the entry levels in global markets were below or around the lower valuation band.  In the previous three low points like this, there has always been the highest growth and positive returns three to five years later.

keppler

 

So it’s good to know that if you invest in global stock markets overall, now, you’ll make capital gains over the next four or five years.

More importantly you get paid more income now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not in 2020.

This year equities have been paying a higher yield than bonds.

As of November 2020, according to Ycharts.com, (1)  AA bond yields are at 1.59%.

ycharts.com

 

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.68% as of November 2020 .  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.59% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact US shares pay one of the lousiest average yields of the 46 stock markets we, via Keppler, monitor around the world.

Eight solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay more than double the average US yield.  They pay  3.57% compared to the US yield of 1.68%.

keppler

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years.

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only five times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course uses Keppler analytics to track 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Pi teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for most stock markets around the world.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of higher performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) Ycharts.com corporate bond yields

(1) Asset Strategy International

Phone: (800) 831-0007 – email: infoasi@assetstrategies.com

Ecuador and Gold


There is gold and legends of vast treasure in Ecuador.

Legend also says that those who journey into certain treasure valleys either die with a stake in their heart or go mad.  I’m happy we did not know that legend when we decided to hike into the Llanganatis.

llanganatis

Merri and me with a group of medical doctors getting ready to hike into the LLanganatis.

We journeyed there, not for gold, but for the treasure of long lives as rumor has it that longevity comes from these valleys mists.

Learn about our LLanganatis journey here.

Then read Dr. Andres Cordova message that shares more about the LLanganatis, and Ecuador’s real new gold treasure in the note below.

Gary

andres cordova

Dr. Andres Cordova

THE LEGEND OF ECUADOR GOLD

ecuador

Gold mask from prehispanic Ecuador

As the price of gold rallies to a 7-year high fueled by the Covid 19 crisis with many seeking a hedge against uncertain financial markets, I have been dwelling as to how, for the past several years, Ecuador has been touted from within and without as one of the worlds next greatest frontiers for gold and other precious metals and how throughout history there’s been a lust for gold, spawning from hordes of alchemists in Medieval Europe to epic searches for the mythic El Dorado, a city of gold said to lie hidden somewhere in the New World.

One of such searches departed from Quito in 1541, crossing the majestic Andes mountains into the lush yet treacherous jungle. It was a party comprised of 340 soldiers and 4000 natives led by Spanish Conquistadores Gonzalo Pizarro and Francisco de Orellana, both of whom had taken part in the toppling of the Inca Empire.

This search for El Dorado started very near from where Hotel Quito lies. Actually, Gary Scot hosted a wonderful conference in this hotel with spectacular views several years ago.

Exhausted and demoralized after many of the soldiers and natives had died from hunger and with El Dorado nowhere to be seen, Pizarro quit while Orellana kept on keeping on going, so much so that he made it into the Atlantic Ocean, having found the mighty Amazon River along the way, so named due to the tribe of female warriors that had continualy attacked the search party by its shores.

The legends of vast troves of Inca gold in Ecuador and the region have permeated the imagination of treasure hunters, historians and archeologists since the 16th century.

As the immense Inca Empire was giving way to the European conquistadores half a millennia ago, Atahualpa, the last Inca Emperor, born in the what the Inca’s called the “Kingdom of Quito” had been captured by the Spaniards who requested a room full of gold as ransom.

As Atahualpa was becoming too much of a liability for the hopelessly outnumbered captors, he was killed before the ransom could be delivered.

Legend has it that such a breathtaking ransom treasure was therefore never delivered and buried deep in the Llanganatis region, between the Andes and the Amazon. The LLanganatis was named a National Park in Ecuador in 1996.

ecuador

Llanganatis

Search for gold has been going on in Ecuador for ages. Until very recently, mining in Ecuador, especially for gold, has been done in rather precarious conditions, with low tech, disregard for the environment and mostly under the radar.

Since some years ago, the government has been undertaking ever more sweeping and aggressive crackdowns to curtail these shoddy practices and has endeavored to usher in a new era were national and foreign companies can invest in the search and extraction of gold and other minerals with substantial investments, high standards, thorough environmental guidelines and continued control and supervision.

While in neighboring countries like Chile and Peru large scale, high-tech mining has been around for decades, in Ecuador it’s just starting. We therefore have the broadest horizons in this field.

As with most any human activity, mining has an environmental trade off and there’s been backlash from many communities, especially indigenous ones whose livelihoods and hearts are so deeply connected to nature. These are delicate matters; it’s arguable if a country like Ecuador can afford to disregard its mining potential however responsibly it may be undertaken.

I believe it is far better to have high tech, well controlled and answerable companies mining in approved areas than a constellation of under the radar operations sprouting here and there, with little to no standards.

This past March the Central Bank of Ecuador managed a short-term loan of $300 million backed by 240,000 ounces of gold from Ecuador’s reserves, to bring some relief to an embattled Government in its efforts to stem the Covid 19 outbreak.

Recently, mining authorities in Ecuador announced the discovery of gold and silver deposits in specific areas that may come to be the first and second largest in the world. One of those mines, some 60 miles from Quito, would bring a $26 billion investment to Ecuador and entail the third largest gold production in the world for Ecuador.

It appears that gold and Ecuador will be intimately intertwined for the foreseeable future. I trust that with all environmental checks in place, formal and high-tech gold extraction in Ecuador can be a source of new wealth for the country that can help palliate lingering problems and challenges in the fields of nutrition, health, education, well being and lack of opportunities for those less fortunate in Ecuador.

Stay safe,

Andrés Córdova

Spanish Words You Can Use

Legend – Leyenda
Gold – Oro
Exploration – Exploración
Richess – Riqueza
Loan – Préstamo

Why You Can Learn Spanish in Three Days

You can learn Spanish in a day, or a week, month or any time frame that works for you.

I’m Gary Scott.  Over fifty years ago I started a business that has helped hundreds of thousands of subscribers learn about investing in Hong Kong (1960s and 1970s), Switzerland, London, Isle of Man (1970s and 1980s) and across Europe. My wife Merri and I took thousands on investing tours to these countries.

In the 1990s we began taking investors to Panama, Mexico, the Dominican Republic and Ecuador.  That’s when we realized an incredible need for an easy, super fast way to learn Spanish.  Our delegates were business people with hard schedules and tight deadlines.  They did not have months, or even weeks to learn a second language.

Plus, even though these delegates were successful international business people, most did not have degrees in grammar.  When it came to sentence structure, punctuation rules, parts of speech, morphology and especially derivation of verbs, they were at a loss. They wanted good basic ways to communicate in Spanish that worked and sounded eloquent, right now, without having to become educated in grammar.

Fortunately there is a scientific method of learning (called Super Learning) that was created and refined by a Soviet educational master, Georgi Lozanov.   Lozanov transformed the entire Soviet Union’s educational system to such a degree that this third world nation beat the USA into space.

My wife Merri was lucky to be one of a handful of students outside the Soviet Union who were taught this system by Lozanov himself in the early 1970s.  She practiced this unique and remarkable form of education for decades so we used it to create a Super Spanish course that has helped thousands of subscribers learn Spanish in three days and less.

This course is now available online.

spanish

Merri teaching a Super Spanish course in Florida.

Does it sound impossible to learn Spanish in three days?  Yes, it is impossible when you try to learn Spanish in the old, traditional way, but the scientific Super Learning method of learning… proven and described in numerous best selling books creates educational jumps by making education natural, easy and fun.   This course works because it is education without stress!

How The Course Works

The first tactic is to use Baroque music to create Relaxed Concentration in the learning process.  At least three best selling books, “Superlearning”, the “Mozart Effect” and “Superlearning 2000” have revealed insights about how to learn and think more powerfully based on systems drawn from the Soviet educational master, Dr. Georgi Lozanov.

You gain six valuable ONLINE Baroque Relaxed Concentration Sessions in the online course that is delivered via the internet.

The second tactic uses 17 unique lessons to provide Spanish fluency in a short time.   Let me prove to you how this tactic works by teaching you hundreds of Spanish words in less than 30 seconds.

Here is the proof.

“Most words in English that end in ION are almost identical, just pronounced differently. 

For example action is accion.

Education-educacion.

Manipulation- manipulacion, etc.”

There you have it.  How long did it take you to read these four sentences? 

Ask yourself.  “How many words do you know that end in ION”.

You now know all these Spanish words that you will never forget.

How long would it have taken you to memorize all those words?  How soon would you have forgotten them?

The next lesson teaches how to pronounce each of the nouns.

The third lesson teaches almost as many verbs, almost as quickly.

The fourth lesson shows how to avoid conjugating verbs by sticking with the infinitive (far easier than it sounds).  This simple lesson leaves a person sounding like a Spanish professor without ever conjugating a verb.

Lesson five shows how to sound infinitely polite and yet get almost anything desired in Spanish.

Lesson six gives valuable connectors and the seventh lesson triples the Spanish capacity with three words for “yesterday,” “now” and “tomorrow”.

In an incredibly short time you feel comfortable speaking Spanish.

Plus the system is Impro-Dynamic.  This means your Spanish keeps getting better even though you do not seem to be studying… practicing… or speaking Spanish.

I was amazed by this as I traveled back and forth from the USA to Ecuador.  The longer I was away from Ecuador… the better my Spanish became.  My second language was automatically improving.  The self improving feature comes because you learn to create Spanish sentences rather than remember them.

The portion of the brain that creates is more powerful than the portion that recalls.  When your mind creates something… it owns it!  You do not have to remember .

During the course you learn 4005 Spanish words that you already know.   This eliminates the need to memorize 99% of Spanish words.

You then learn how to create Spanish sentences from these words.

Throughout the course you learn how to pronounce the sentences you create.

When the course ends… the mind keeps working… and creating… so next time you begin to speak Spanish you’ll be surprised .  You improve even though you have not actively worked on your lingual skill.

Due to the difficulty of getting groups together to learn this valuable technique, we created an online program for subscribers to use the Super Spanish course at home.   The normal three day in person course fee is $499 ($749 for a couple).

The ONLINE course is available at the highly reduced price of $149, but in this special offer we are knocking another $70 from the price so you can start now for only $79.  

The ONLINE course has our, full satisfaction or money back, guarantee.  Try Super Spanish for 60 days.  If not fully satisfied, simply let us know for a full refund.

Learn Spanish online $79 - using coupon code SPANISH70 at checkout to immediately save $70 off the regular price of $149.

Here are some testimonials from the course.

Here are a few quotes from delegates of the course.

One delegate from St. Louis wrote:  Hi Gary,  Just ended forty-five years in dentistry last week, and I’m on to a new career.  What is my new career?  Still formulating, but the eye -opening,mind expanding Super-Spanish course last weekend in St. Louis surely shows me the opportunity exists to expand my horizons.

Besides having a lot of nice people to learn our new language; the methods Merri and you developed proved to be just what you said they would be.  We all and I in particular relaxed our way to new learning.  I feel so very comfortable with the basis of my new language skills that I know I will be spitting out great Spanish sentences by the time I reach Ecuador in October.  Last year I spent six weeks in Ecuador and now I plan on conversing with the people.

Today’s excerpt of your newsletter really hit home. You do what you say you will. There are no surprises or hidden sales tricks. The only tricks are beneficial to our learning.  Thank you for a wonderful experience that I was quite unable to grasp how you would pull it off.  You did, however, and I look forward to other courses that you offer, and I have absolutely no doubt they also will work beneficially.  Best regards, Denis Molloy.

Another wrote about the Super Spanish course:   Buenos Dias, here is a testimonial for Super Thinking-Super Spanish.  Please feel free to use all or part in promotions for the course.  In addition, you may give my email address to any prospect “on the fence” about enrolling.  Yesterday, in Cotacachi, Ecuador, I finished Super Spanish.  I had high expectations for the course and they were exceeded.

After three days, I can speak Spanish in complete sentences. In simple conversations, such as buying groceries or ordering a meal, I can make myself understood. I think that’s incredible!

Although I am far from the competence level of a native speaker, I feel I’ve taken a giant step forward in learning Spanish so that I can experience the people and culture of Ecuador.  The foregoing benefits would have more than justified the time and money I invested in Super Spanish.  And learning some Spanish was not the most important benefit I got from the course.

Prior to leaving the USA, I had felt for some time that the pace of life there was unhealthy for me (and for most people) and I did nothing about it.

I’ve thought about the pace issue during the course.  One of the key elements Merri Scott designed into Super Spanish is placing the student in the optimal state for learning.  In class, the past three days, I’ve been re-introduced to guided journeys and introduced to the calming effects of Baroque music (www.sundaybaroque.org).  What a blessing! I’m inclined to make one or both a daily part of my life.   Rob Christi.  Cotacachi, Ecuador

Another attendee from a course wrote:   “I took this incredible class a few weeks ago, and I would like to tell anyone that is interested, that it is an amazing three days of learning with lots of laughs included. You leave everyday wanting to learn more and are so excited to do so.

“Other Spanish classes and tutoring made us feel like it would take forever to get to the point where we could put it into practice, but this method gave us a more fluent use for everyday life almost immediately AND the confidence to use it.  It is a fantastic way to show people how much they know and give confidence to learn and use Spanish creating a momentum.

“They made learning Spanish easy and fun in a very relaxed, comfortable atmosphere.  I would definitely recommend this course.  Even if you know some Spanish, this helps make it easier because of the less stress that no verb conjugations gives you.  This gives you more confidence in yourself to try and speak it more.

“I liked how simply the course was organized and the positive attitude about learning.  Thank you so much for helping me to learn Spanish!” Nadine Taylor

The ONLINE Super Spanish course has our, full satisfaction or money back, guarantee. Try Super Spanish for 60 days.  If not fully satisfied, simply let us know for a full refund. 

The course is available at the highly reduced price of $149, but in this special offer we are knocking another $70 from the price so you can start now for only $79.  

Learn Spanish online $79 - using coupon code SPANISH70 at checkout to immediately save $70 off the regular price of $149.

Still not sure?

Take just ten minutes to let me prove to you that this super fast way to gain the basics can let you can communicate in Spanish in an incredibly short time.

Gary

Gary-scott-super-spanish

Click here for FREE Super Spanish video.

The ONLINE Super Spanish course has our, full satisfaction or money back, guarantee. Try Super Spanish for 60 days.  If not fully satisfied, simply let us know for a full refund. 

The course is available at the highly reduced price of $149, but in this special offer we are knocking another $70 from the price so you can start now for only $79.  

Learn Spanish online $79 - using coupon code SPANISH70 at checkout to immediately save $70 off the regular price of $149.

 

Why Gold Prices Will Soar


Gold is a poor value according to my reckoning.   See here why you should own it anyhow.

I create a lot of confusion about investing in gold because there are two reasons to buy gold and silver.  So sometimes I am saying, “do not speculate in the precious metals, but invest in some”.

The first reason to invest in gold is as a speculation.  At times when gold is priced so low that it’s good value, there can be special opportunities to profit in gold, silver and platinum.

The analysis in our Report “Silver Dip 2019” suggests that once gold’s price shoots much past $1,350, its not a good value for speculation.

The current chart of gold’s price at goldprice.org shows that gold surged past it’s good value point in early 2019 long before the pandemic and stock market correction.

silver

This graph suggests that gold is a poor value in its current price range around $1,700.

In other words we should not speculate in gold at this time, but there is a second reason to own gold and silver… as insurance.   Investments in precious metals are financial insurance, a store of value.

You should already have made this part of precious metals investments long ago.  If not, bite the bullet and invest in gold or silver or both now even though their price is no bargain.

The price of gold and silver may very well rise due to inflation created by the government’s wanton spending.

Eric Roseman CEO of ENR Asset Management (1) agrees.  In the May ENR Advisory Extra bulletin he wrote:

I’m also gravely concerned about skyrocketing U.S. and foreign deficits as central banks and governments alike print trillions to finance the deep recession and soaring unemployment. This is why I’m bullish on gold. U.S. deficits are heading to the Moon. I would argue that a default cycle is looming because of the sheer size of existing and upcoming debt issuance – both sovereign and corporate. The Fed can technically print into oblivion, unlike most other nations. Yet even the Fed can’t mint money forever before compromising the dollar and the Treasury market.

GOLD: The U.S. dollar will eventually go down. The post-2011 secular USD bull market is nearing an end, lacking any fundamental support as deficits blast higher, rates crash lower and the Fed prints much more money compared to 2008-2009. The United States government expects to borrow a record $4.5 trillion this fiscal year as it steps up spending to battle what is likely to be the deepest economic downturn since the Great Depression.

Gold is only 11% below its all-time high of $1,924 an ounce in 2011 but has room to shoot past this.

Eric believes the price will “blast through that $1,900 threshold over the next 12-18 months, if not sooner.”  His advice: all portfolios should have at least 5% to 10% in physical gold.

Eric agrees with me that the world economy has a chance to slowly transition away from a highly deflationary setting and move into a more inflationary environment, probably around the middle of the 2020s.

This is another support for a long term price rise.  The world will have to keep zero interest rates.  The huge debt that’s being accumulated is unsustainable, even at low or no interest, but rising interest costs would throw almost every government budget into a tailspin.

If interest rates cannot rise to offset inflation, commodities, real estate and equities will be the main asset sectors providing protection.  However real estate and equities are more subject to currency rises and falls.

There are likely to be competitive devaluations between countries trying to make their products more affordable as major economies battle against slow growth and increasing deflationary pressures.

“Gold as a quasi-monetary standard will likely be revalued higher relative to all fiat money.”

Gary

Coronavirus and the Stock Market Round Two

Coronavirus and the stock market.  Round Two is coming.

This virus and the market faced off in the spring.  The market won.  As the chart below shows, after a huge March 2020 collapse,the DJIA is almost back to its December 2019 level.

stocks

The market’s back up, but history suggests that we’ll see volatility in the ten years ahead.

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  The .dotcom bubble burst just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

The market then went nowhere from 2000 to 2014.   Finally it started reaching new high levels.

Such decades long sideways movement after a severe correction is nothing new in the stock market.

So everything’s in order… except the pandemic.  The ravages of the coronavirus dramatically increase the unknown and this uncertainty is the greatest purveyor  of weakness that a stock market can have.

Such delays have profound implications for older generations who may need to cash in equities for income.  How do we maximize the return on your savings and investments during this extremely dangerous time?

For the past five years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain income and appreciation from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) to determine which markets offer the best value so we can be in a perfect position to take advantage of stock market corrections all over the world.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: Austria, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

You can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but during the pandemic to introduce you to this online course  I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy, diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

 

(1) Get details about ENR portfolio performance from Thomas Fischer at thomas@enrasset.com

 

Why NOT speculate in gold now?


Here’s one reason why you have not heard much about precious metal investments at my website recently.

One of the investing ideas we track for our International Club members is called the Silver Dip.  The idea is that it’s a good time to invest in when silver when three conditions exits.
The three conditions for the Silver Dip are:
#1: Gold’s price is a good value.
#2: Silver is overpriced versus gold.
#3: There is an overvalued currency with a low interest rate that can be used to leverage investments in silver ETFs.

The first reason I have not been writing about the Silver Dip right now is that gold is not currently priced at a good value.

The Silver Dip is a speculative tactic that is first and foremost based on the real value of gold.

The excerpts below from the “Silver Dip 2019” report shows why I do not feel it’s good value now.

Gold and silver also combat inflation.

The chart below shows how gold and silver have pretty much kept pace with inflation long term.

It requires about the same weight of gold or silver today to buy a car, go to a movie or rent a car as it did in 1942. Gold or silver today will buy quite a bit more coffee, sugar or milk than it did in 1942 (one reason why food prices are now accelerating).

Gold and silver have appreciated a lot since 1942. How much are they worth now? What is their
real value?

This of course is THE golden question… so let’s compare prices.

Here’s a chart I prepared for the Silver Dip 2015 report and since there has not been a lot of inflation, I have not updated it.

silver

The excerpt continues:

Gaining a true perspective is difficult because gold and silver prices were held at fixed prices for so many years. This distorts the accuracy of the picture. Statistics can also be misleading.

The chart shows that from 1942 until 2016 prices of most major items increased around 35 times.

Gold was up 33 times from its value in 1942.  Silver was up 38 times in the same period.

If these conclusions are accurate, it means that gold and silver were reasonable hedges against inflation.

This analysis suggests that when the price of gold is at or below $1,350 it is likely a good deal.   The foundation of the Silver Dip strategy is that ideal conditions are best when gold is in this price range.

There you have it.  Once gold’s price shoots much past $1,350, The Silver Dip increases in risk and loses its value protection.

The current chart of gold’s price shows that gold started to surge past it’s good value point not long after we released the Silver Dip 2019 report in early 2019.

silver

This graph suggests that gold is a poor value in its current price range over $1,700.  Even if the gold silver ratio and the gold platinum ratio indicate that silver and platinum are better value than gold, they are all poor value investments.

There are two ways to invest in gold and silver (since they do not provide any yield).  The first investment is as insurance, a store of value against inflation.  You should already have made this investment long ago.  If not, bite the bullet and invest in gold or silver or both now even though their price is no bargain.

The price of gold and silver may very well rise due to inflation created by the government’s wanton spending.

Let’s hope that our gold and silver investments do make us a fortune!   Just like insurance… this part of precious metals investing should be like comfort food, available for a warm fuzzy feeling, but not partaken.

If gold shoots to $3,000 it’s because the price of our other investments are down.

The second reason to invest in gold and silver is as a speculation.  When conditions are ripe (such as shown above) profits can be huge.  Now’s not the time though.  Gold and silver are historically overpriced and not good for speculation.

Gary

See a special COVID-19 special half price offer to the International Club below

On January 12, 2020, I asked subscribers this question:

“Will the 2020 stock market decade be more like the 2000s decade or the 2010 decade?”

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  You can see that bubble pop just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

We need to understand that the COVID-19 pandemic did not cause the collapse of global share prices.

Equity prices were too high and just waiting for an excuse to fall.  The pandemic is the excuse, not the cause.

For the past four years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course to determine which markets offer the best value and now sit in a perfect position to take advantage of the global stock market correction.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to include when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

 I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but currently we have a Pandemic offer for our International Club that as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save the $299.

Club members also receive two more reports I’ll send about the most exciting opportunities I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become an International Club member you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the past two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip” updated in late 2018.   The report explained the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

Save $598.23… when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program including SNAP”.  Free.

#2: The $299 Purposeful investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”.  Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2019”.  Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.   All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report.  Free.

#7: Plus updates and other report I release in the year ahead.

These reports, courses and programs would cost $767.73.

The International Club membership is $349 so the 2020 membership normally saves $418.78. 

However due to the COVID-19 Pandemic we have cut membership in half and are currently accepting the discounted membership of $174.50 today.  You save $598.23 instead!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your membership at just $99 a year rather than $349.  Your membership will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel membership at any time.

Save $598.23.  Join the International Club for just $174.5o.   Receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons through the rest of 2020 and into of 2021  at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $174.50

Become an International Club member today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

Pandemic & Gold


Gold and silver normally rise in price (but not in value) during times of panic.

I keep a supply of gold coins and wafers as insurance for times of panic or hyper inflation.

gold

1/10th ounce Cuban gold coins.

A recent article at this site “Pandemic Inflation” looked at why we should expect the current massive government spending to create inflation.

This does not mean that we should make a investments in gold and silver at this time.

There are two reasons we should  invest in gold and silver.

The first purpose of precious metals is to act as insurance that protects us from economic catastrophes like the one we face now.  But insurance is best purchased before the calamity.   You should already have your precious metals insurance.

If you don’t, get it, but you’ll pay a premium.  The price of gold is volatile, at a seven year high and  dealers who cannot keep up with demand are charging ridiculous premiums even for gold they cannot deliver.

If you do not have a portion of your portfolio in precious metals (I like to keep a couple of years of living expenses), bit the bullet and cover yourself now.  Gold’s price could go much higher. There is absolutely no need for you to pay exorbitant premiums for metal you cannot not receive for a month or more nor ongoing storage fees.

You can see how to get the best deal on your purchases right now at Asset Strategies International.

The second purpose of precious metals is as a speculation. I have written about powerful ways to speculate in gold, silver and platinum in my report, “The Silver Dip”.

Here’s one reason why you have not heard much about the Silver Dip recently.

A Purposeful Investing Course subscriber recently sent this question:

Gary – I have not heard much about the Silver dip since the markets have plunged and Corona virus news dominates. What is the current view?  Thanks

One of several reasons I have not been writing about the Silver Dip right now is that gold is not priced at a good value.

The Silver Dip is a speculative tactic that is first and foremost based on the real value of gold.

The excerpts below from the “Silver Dip 2019” report shows why I do not feel it’s good value now.

Gold and silver combat inflation.

The chart below shows how gold and silver have pretty much kept pace with inflation long term.

It requires about the same weight of gold or silver today to buy a car, go to a movie or rent a car as it did in 1942. Gold or silver today will buy quite a bit more coffee, sugar or milk than it did in 1942 (one reason why food prices are now accelerating).

Gold and silver have appreciated a lot since 1942. How much are they worth now? What is their real value?

This of course is THE golden question… so let’s compare prices.

Here’s a chart I prepared for the Silver Dip 2015 report and since there has not been a lot of inflation, I have not updated it.

silver

The excerpt continues:

Gaining a true perspective is difficult because gold and silver prices were held at fixed prices for so many years. This distorts the accuracy of the picture. Statistics can also be misleading.

We could spend a lot of time trying to devise a more accurate picture, but this review provides a broad understanding of the relation to the price of gold and silver and cost of living.

The gold price of $33.85 an ounce (before the end of WWII and the huge inflation this conflict created), is the more accurate than the price at the end of the war. We use this price and the costs of 1942 houses and cars and wages in this comparison. Houses, cars and wages took a big jump due to war fueled inflation.

The price of gold and silver were artificially kept low in 1947.Since 1942 US median income increased 29 times.

House prices rose from 1942 until 2016 47 times.

Cars jumped 36 times.

Gold was up 33 times from its value in 1942.

Silver was up 38 times in the same period.

If these conclusions are accurate, it means that gold and silver were reasonable hedges against inflation.

The price of gold and silver are likely to continue rising and falling along their medians. If the conclusions of the inflation comparison are correct, anytime silver drops much below $14, it is a good value.

Gold at or below $1,350 is also likely a good deal and the foundation of the Value Dip strategy is that ideal conditions are best when gold is in this price range.

There you have it.  Once gold’s price shoots much past $1,350, The Silver Dip increases in risk and loses its value protection.

The current chart of gold’s price shows that gold started to surge past it’s good value point not long after we released the Silver Dip 2019 report in early 2019.

silver

This graph suggests that gold is a poor value in its current price range over $1,700.  Even if the gold silver ratio and the gold platinum ratio indicate that silver and platinum are better value than gold, they are all poor value investments.

Gary

 

Silver Dip Reveiw


A recent lesson at our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) reminded subscribers of several commodity relationships that we should watch as value investors.

Commodities have extra value now because most stocks and bonds are priced at or near all-time highs, but commodities are priced far below their highs which peaked more than a decade ago.  In 2019, the main commodity index was 61% below its all-time high hit in 2008.

silver-price-article

On top of this, the U.S. Dollar rose against other currencies for its ninth year in a row.  The greenback is overvalued and this offers special opportunity using dollars to leverage some commodities.

The question “is gold and silver a good value now?”

Here are excerpts from our “Silver Dip 2019” report:

The value indicator the “Silver Dip” used in the 1980s and 2015 and now is simple. The strategy is based on the gold-silver ratio as a main indicator that the price of silver is a good value.

The threshold we watch for is a spread of 80. When the price of gold is 80 times (or more) higher than the price of silver history this suggests that silver is undervalued to gold and will rise faster than gold.

Rarely has the ratio been as high as 80, only five times in 36 years as the chart below shows.

In 2017 Platinum was the best option for speculation and the platinum ETF PPLT was recommended for the first time due to its ideal speculative position in 2017. That idea gold platinum ratio position remained throughout 2018 (we’ll review it later in this report), but the price trend of platinum also remained negative (and PPLT was stopped out) for the entire year.

Gold at or below $1,350 is also likely a good deal and the foundation of the Value Dip strategy is that ideal conditions are best when gold is in this price range.

As a general rule, platinum is undervalued when it sells for less than gold. As the chart below shows, platinum costs more than gold much more often than not. The fundamental reasons for platinum’s high price, including platinum’s supply scarcity, support this.

Gold was at $1551.90 an ounce Thursday morning January 17, 2020.

Silver’s price at 17.90 an ounce is at a gold silver ratio of 86 and platinum at $1004.00 an ounce is priced way below the price of gold.

This suggest that both silver and platinum will rise faster than the price of gold, but gold price may be a bit high at this time.

We’ll reexamine gold’s valuation in the “Silver Dip” 2020 update.

Gary

If you are a Pi Subscriber access the “Silver Dip” free at your lesson introduction.

Buy Silver Dip 2019 now. Get Silver Dip 2020 Update Free

Why Leverage Silver ETFs

Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less?

I first spotted an opportunity in 1986.   Two short term distortions (in the price of silver and the strength of the British pound) created potential for huge profits.  I wrote in a report (called the “Silver Dip”) that told how to borrow British pounds to speculate in silver and earn over $50,000 profit.  That’s the headline I used then in 1986, “Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less”.

The report showed how to take borrow overpriced British pounds and invest the loan in under priced silver.   $250 was required to set up the loan.  No other cash was needed to borrow the pounds.

Readers who followed the report made $46,299 on the no cash investment in only one year

Then in 2015 I spotted the same distortion again.  The British pound was overvalued.  Silver was undervalued. 

I quickly issued a report… the “Silver Dip 2015” that looked at how similar conditions to 1986 had fallen into place.  The price of silver had reached a six year low.  The British pound strength was rising.  The dollar per pound rate was $1.55 per pound, exactly the same as in 1986 and the silver/gold ratio rose over 80 just as in 1986.

That report revealed the iShares Silver Trust, a silver ETF  and during the year after issuing this report, the share price rose from $13.57 per share to $19.60 in 2015.

The rise in the silver price created a nice profit.   The currency and leverage tactics within the strategy turned the nice profit into a very nice profit.

A $10,000 (6,451 British pounds) loan purchased 736 shares at $13.57.  In 2015 the shares rose to $19.60 and were worth $14,425 (up 44.25%).

Those profits were spectacular by any stretch of the imagination but turned out even better because the profits above excluded the forex profit.

In 2015-2016 , the British pound dropped almost exactly as it did 30 years ago!  The British pound fell from $1.55 per pound to $1.33 per pound.

At $1.33 per pound, the 6,451 pound loan only required $8,575 to pay back the loan.  This created an extra $1,425 forex profit.

When the opportunity appeared again last year, I updated the report to  “Silver Dip 2018”.

The 2018 report showed how the opportunity for this speculation was even better than it was in 2015.

Yet the profits have not yet arrived.  This allows me to make an amazing no-risk guaranteed offer to you.

Silver Dip 2019 includes profit calculations for 2019 and I offer you the report “Silver Dip 2019” with a year long guarantee.

“If the profits recommended in the report don’t arrive by the end of the year, I’ll give you a complete and full refund”.

That’s right if the tactic described in Silver Dip 2019 do not hit their target, you don’t have to pay a thing for the report.

Investing in silver ETFs leveraged with margin loans may create extraordinary profits in 2019.

The “Silver Dip 2019”  shows how to easily make an ideal speculation for almost any amount.   The report shows when and how to get margin loans in dollars, British pound, Japanese yen or euro.

In fact you learn how to borrow in 23 different currencies, even Russian rubles, so you can choose the weakest currency with the lowest interest rates.

Low Interest Loans

Interest on the loan won’t eat up profits.  The “Silver Dip 2019” shows how to borrow many currencies right now for less than 2%.

The Silver Dip is only exercised when conditions are absolutely ideal.  Value investors never push this rule.  Investment and speculative markets are full of rumor, conjecture (a lot of it false) and hidden agendas.  The Silver Dip relies instead on a really simple theory… that the price of gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s price should maintain a parity with gold.  When that parity is out of balance (as it has been since August 2018) silver’s price is ready to explode.

The “Silver Dip 2019” explains how to speculate in silver ETFs plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in silver if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment:  who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons why conditions are excellent for better for a Silver Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2019” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2019” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in silver.

Learn how to beware of certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how silver profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of silver’s price with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine its real value.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of silver to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2019  $39.95

The benefit of 50 years experience in watching markets, metals, bonds, interest rates and currencies, I have learned many special pricing situations to watch for.

These special opportunities do not appear every day.  That’s why they are special.

Unless you have seen them come and go, it’s hard to see them coming again.

That is why I was willing to wait for years for silver to be in a special pricing position.

Our courses and reports are about finding good value and they have been helping astute readers find value investments, again and again for 50 years.

The “Silver Dip 2019” report shows a current huge opportunity.  I continuously watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.   Sometimes a rare quirk, such as the currency distortions, low cost loans and low silver price  offer potential for profit, with very little risk of long term loss.

Investors who speculate on these aberrations at the correct time can make fortunes.

The time is now.

Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

We are stalking precious metal opportunity now.

The trap is set. We are waiting…

This opportunity is explained in the report “Silver Dip 2019”.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Here is why there is no risk for you.  The report is 100% guaranteed.

I do not sell book, reports and courses.  I offer benefits.  If  the Silver Dip 2019 does not bring you the benefits you expect, just let me know any time in 2019 and I’ll send you a quick, no questions asked, full refund.

I can’t promise that silver’s price will rise in 2019 but  I can guarantee you’ll be fully satisfied with the report or… you can have your money back in full.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Gary

Digital Currency Backed by Gold


Some investors love crypto currencies.  Others love gold.

Now they have come together, gold and blockchain technology.

pixabay

When it comes to blockchain technology, I am a Luddite.

I have always prided myself as an early adopter.   During the 51 plus years I have been writing about global investing I have helped readers capture many trends at a most early stage.

In the 1970s I was one of the original gold & silver bugs.  I was also a leader into Japanese, German , Swiss, British, Australian and Hong Kong markets that decade.

In the 1980s I led investors to London and Isle of Man real estate.  Then in the 1990s we recommended investing and living in Ecuador long before others.

But when crypto currencies came along, I missed the boat.  More accurately I did not even try to catch its sailing.

I have always had a feel, a mental-emotional anchor of value for precious metals, real estate, global currencies and shares.  That drove me to speculate and make huge profits (along with some losses too).

That feeling has not emerged with blockchain currencies.

I’m going to London later this month, mostly to be with grandchildren, but also to consult with a blockchain expert to see if I can really grasp blockchain so it’s mine.  Unless one has such a feeling… investing in what you do not understand is dangerous.  One lacks commitment, conviction and the ability to spot distortions that create value.

I do not have that understanding of blockchain yet, but I can see why it could become a valuable economic tool.

The article “The End of Capitalism Has Begun”(1)  at the Guardian Newspaper’s website (I recommended you read this earleir this week) helped me understand why crypto currencies could become a mainstay in the world.

One paragraph in that article explained why blockchain is evolving.

The article says: Almost unnoticed, in the niches and hollows of the market system, whole swaths of economic life are beginning to move to a different rhythm. Parallel currencies, time banks, cooperatives and self-managed spaces have proliferated, barely noticed by the economics profession, and often as a direct result of the shattering of the old structures in the post-2008 crisis.

As a result, large parts of the business class have become neo-luddites. Faced with the possibility of creating gene-sequencing labs, they instead start coffee shops, nail bars and contract cleaning firms: the banking system, the planning system and late neoliberal culture reward above all the creator of low-value, long-hours jobs.

We need totally different visions about every aspect of the economy, including currencies.

We Luddites had better catch up!

forbes magazine

Image from the Forbes article “10 Blockchain Companies To Watch In 2019” (2)

The article says: This list showcases 10 companies working to make blockchain more accessible, prominent and mainstream. Some you may have heard of; others are new to the scene. The companies come from all regions of the world. Each offers something unique with the potential to disrupt traditional industries as well as gain support from legitimate entities.

One of the ten blockchain companies listed in this Forbes article is Karatbars International GmbH.

gold

The article says: Based in Germany, Karatbars International GmbH is the parent company of KaratGold Coin and a robust gold-based ecosystem of cross-border blockchain solutions. Their latest product, the IMPulse K1 Smartphone, is the first phone using Voice Over Blockchain Protocol (VOPB). Currently, KaratGold allows consumers to trade or purchase gold on more than 500,000 acceptance points worldwide. With all of the recent talk about Bitcoin versus gold, this company provides the best of both worlds.

I am still grappling with my understanding of blockchain and how this digital technology fits together with gold.  Fortunately while I am researching this, a long time friend and scientist, Bob Shane has acquired a lot of information about Karatbars.

Bob wrote: Hi Gary,  here is a summary of what I have been doing in crypto and of the gold backed crypto from Karatbars alone with some video and information links.  Keep in mind many people are only interested in getting gold and saving it for some crisis in the future.  Others are more interested in getting the gold backed coin (KBC) and passively holding for a couple of years as its value goes up.  Others are traders.

For people wanting to build a gold backed crypto business there is also a referral program where commissions are paid for introducing the program to others.

For the last few years I have been investing in cryptocurriences.   I have made some money and lost some money but am still ahead.  I’ve learned a lot and know that crypto is the wave of the future but it needs to be backed by tangible assets or could fail.  The most promising company I have found has their coin 100% backed by gold bullion from some of the largest gold mines in the world that they own or have rights to the gold.

We are told that by the next meeting of affiliates in Sao Paulo, Brazil, December 15, 2019 that Karatbars will be a public company listed on Frankfurt Stock Exchange. This will be the first regulated crypto company listed on stock exchanges.

The bank they are opening will be open and fully functional, live on blockchain as well as physical, plus the company is opening of new gold mine in Brazil.

Bob also sent me an article from the Coindesk.com website, entitled “Gold backed crypto tokens promoter investigated by Florida regulators” (3).  This article has both positive and negative comments, but should be read by anyone considering this gold back currency.

Crypto currencies are still new in the economic world and they face some major hurdles.

Perhaps the biggest hurdle of all is governments.  After all they are the biggest creators of digital currencies, (their own currency) and they are savage monopolists.

The US money supply for example is based on cash, coins (M1), and balances held in checking and savings accounts, and other near money substitutes (M2).  M2 in other words is a digital currency without any real backing.

According to data from the Federal Reserve, as of March 2019 a little over $3.7 trillion in M1 money was in circulation, while almost $14.5 trillion in M2 money was circulating in the United States.  Well over half of the American money supply is digital currency.

The Wall Street Journal article “Visa Mastercard and others reconsider involvement in Facebook’s Libra network” (4) shows how governments will be brutal to anyone, even a coalition as large as Facebook, Visa and Mastercard, if the government feels that it monopoly and control over its currency is at risk.

The article says: Some of Libra’s backers decline Facebook’s requests to publicly support the project

Cracks are forming in the coalition Facebook Inc. FB -0.43% assembled to build a global cryptocurrency-based payments network.

Visa Inc., Mastercard Inc. MA -0.68% and other financial partners that signed on to help build and maintain the Libra payments network are reconsidering their involvement following a backlash from U.S. and European government officials, according to people familiar with the matter. Wary of attracting regulatory scrutiny, executives of some of Libra’s backers have declined Facebook’s requests to publicly support the project, the people said.

At best, Karatbars and all crypto currencies are a speculation and must be approached with caution.  So too were Hong Kong shares in the 1970s, London real estate in the 1980s and Ecuador real estate in the 1990s.  Those speculations I took turned into outstanding profits.

The idea of crypto currencies is worthwhile and I love an approach that backs a blockchain currency to gold so I am continuing my research with an open mind.

While I am researching this union of blockchain and gold, you can research as well.

For more details on KARATBARS INTERNATIONAL contact Bob Share at shanebob@msn.com

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

A model portfolio that dates back to 1969 has dramatically outperformed almost every stock market in the world.

keppler

A hundred US dollars invested in that portfolio in 1969 is now worth $44833 compared to $100 invested in an equity weighted world index being worth $11,548.

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2020.   There have been no changes since.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: China, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Germany (symbol EWG) is a Country Index ETF  that tracks the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index. The fund is at all times invested at least 80% of its assets in the securities of its underlying index that primarily consists of all the large-and mid-capitalization companies traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market in our Pifolio.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing. Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades. This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

keppler

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Save $102 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years,  right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $99 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

(1) www.theguardian.com/books/2015/jul/17/postcapitalism-end-of-capitalism-begun

(2) www.forbes.com/sites/joresablount/2019/05/31/10-blockchain-companies-to-watch-in-2019/#1d19e1c3543f

(3) www.coindesk.com: Gold backed crypto tokens promoter investigated by Florida regulators

(4) www.wsj.com/articles/visa-mastercard-others-reconsider-involvement-in-facebook-s-libra-network-11569967023

New Inflation Scenario


The price of silver and gold are on the move… up!

We never know for sure if the rise will be sustained or high, but one thing is certain… there will be inflation.  That’s bad news for living, but usually good news for the price of gold.

Now a growing, global government interference in stock markets can push the cost of living up, even more.

gold

Last week we sent our Purposeful Investing (Pi) subscribers the August 2019 ENR Advisory Extra bulletin.

This advisory is for ENR’s largest clients and is only available to these large clients and PI subscribers.

ENR is one of the very few investment management companies that can help US investors bank and hold assets with non US banks.

This report looks at why inflation is coming and how to protect our wealth now.

The bulletin begins: It’s conventional wisdom in 2019 that inflation is dead, and the U.S. dollar is King.

Pundits, professional investors, market commentators and bearish advisors have been warning about looming inflation for the past 20 years, and most recently, since the advent of global quantitative easing (QE) in 2009.

Indeed, a period of unorthodox monetary policies initiated by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2009 saw more than $4.3 trillion printed to purchase U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, according to Bloomberg.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) has minted about €4.65 trillion ($5.2 trillion) and is second only to the Bank of Japan, which has pumped more money into its economy to fight deflation; in fact, the Bank of Japan’s balance-sheet is now larger than the country’s gross domestic product.

And yet, despite all the money-printing – the most on record since the 1930s – inflation failed to ignite in the United States, Europe and Japan.

Even in China, several financial stimulus packages since 2009 have failed to grow inflation (see Total Assets of Major Central Banks, page 2, courtesy of Yardeni Research). According to InflationData.com, U.S. long-term average annual inflation as measured by the CPI is 3.25% from 1913 to 2018.

Before we look further into the bulletin, let’s ask, “have we really been without inflation?”

Not entirely.  According to the price history website in 2013dollars (1)  apples priced at $20 in 2000 cost $32.06 in 2019.  All food prices moved the same.

inflation

Housing was worse.  Housing priced at $100,000 in 2000 cost $155,802.64 in 2019.

Other price rises were far worse.  Take education as an example.  Educational supplies priced at $100 in 2000 were $246.23 in 2019.
College tuition priced at $20,000 in 2000 rose to $51,793.28 in 2019.  I suspect that easy student loans luring unsuspecting students had something to do with that.

Though these price increases are disturbing,  they would have been far worse if the 200o and 2009 recessions had not kept inflation down. Those recessions created a global low interest rate economic scenario that we have not seen in our lifetime.

ENR’s Advisory explains reasons why the scenario may now lead to much worse inflation.  The first part of this inflation scenario is the aging of the population.

One potential threat looms large over the next several years: U.S. entitlement spending. Mr. James Piereson, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, published an insightful and equally alarming editorial in The Wall Street Journal on February 28, 2019 titled “How Debt Makes the Market Volatile.’ According to Mr. Piereson, global credit market debt, which includes all government, corporate and consumer debt, reached $244 trillion in 2018, compared with worldwide economic output of $85 trillion– a ratio of nearly 3 to 1.

The situation is worse in the United States: The St. Louis Fed calculates that total U.S. credit-market debt was $69 trillion in December 2017 compared to $19.4 trillion of GDP – a ratio of 3.6 to 1. Since 1980, according to Mr. Piereson, credit-market debt has risen 15-fold compared with a seven-fold increase in nominal GDP.

At more than $21.5 trillion – and growing – the federal debt is an out-of-control runaway train. Mr. Piereson poignantly depicts, interest payments continue to consume a rising share of federal spending. The U.S. government spent $315 billion in net interest payments last year, nearly 8% of its total $4 trillion in expenditures. Though the average annual interest rate on federal debt has declined from 6.6% in 2001 to 2.5% currently, the drop in per-dollar interest has encouraged the government to borrow much more. If rates were to rise, even modestly, from current levels, deficit-spending could overwhelm other spending priorities.

Entitlement spending needs to be controlled. Social Security’s costs are expected to exceed income in 2020 for the first time since 1982, forcing the program to dip into its nearly $3 trillion trust fund to cover benefits, according to The Wall Street Journal.

By 2035, the trust funds for Social Security and Medicare will be exhausted, and Social Security will no longer be able to pay its full scheduled benefits, unless Congress boosts the program. Then there’s the federal budget. Both programs are putting more pressure on the governments’ budget projections. Social Security and Medicare account for 45% of federal spending, excluding interest payments on the national debt and have contributed to larger deficits that are set to exceed $1 trillion a year beginning in 2020.

Why focus on global debt accumulation and not just America’s government borrowing?  The aging of the global population is not just an American affair.   The population boom after WWII was international.   Now, Western societies, the US, Europe and Japan are overloaded with retirees who have been promised a lot!  But the assets to deliver the promises are not there.

Importantly, at a time when fiscal hawks in Washington and globally have literally deserted fiscal prudence, deficit spending and debt-servicing are likely to trigger the most significant inflation event since the 1970s Arab oil embargo.

The last two recessions and low interest rates have added another dilemma in the new inflation scenario.

The Advisory answers this question when it says: Central Banks Shift Bias; Inflation on ‘Sale’

As the Fed, the ECB and other central banks shift to an easing bias this year and possibly reintroduce another round of QE, global risk-based assets will appreciate. The prospect of renewed easing by the ECB only stands to intensify an already distorted bond market and encourage investors to buy riskier securities. At some point, that could become a trigger for a nasty bout of financial turmoil. According to Deutsche Bank, about 25% of the world’s sovereign bond markets now have negative yields.

With a total of 35 global central banks already cutting interest rates this year, the odds increasingly favor a mad dash into global equities later this fall and into 2020. Declining rates are bullish for stocks and bonds; also bullish is the possibility of the ECB purchasing euro-zone equities, similarly to the Bank of Japan.

What if the Fed follows suit and purchases stocks? The ongoing distortions in euro-zone and Japanese bond markets might spread to stocks, if central banks launch asset purchases of said assets in Europe and the United States. The Bank of Japan, for example, owns about 75% of the country’s exchange-traded fund market and is a top ten shareholder in 40% of Japan’s listed companies, according to The Financial Times.

That’s an incredible intrusion on capital markets. A central bank has no business buying stocks.

As the world rushes into equities and credit again, financial risks will grow. And one of those risks is inflation – virtually on nobody’s radar. More money-printing, larger deficits and wider distortions in asset prices will eventually come home to roost when this incredible monetary experiment is finally exhausted.

One way to survive inflation is to invest in good value equity markets.  I explain this at Profitable Investing Made EZ

The ENR Advisory provides some inflation fighting clues and says:  Surviving Inflation: How to Invest and includes 4 inflation hedges. These include gold bullion, B2Gold Corp., Japanese yen, and the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Trust.

The Advisory says (bolds are mine) : The first inflation asset to buy now is gold bullion, preferably in physical form.

Gold ETFs are a secondary option and should be used mainly as a diversification tool for institutional investors and managed accounts because gold ownership is more expensive. You can buy gold domestically in the United States through reputable dealers like KITCO, The Hartford Gold Group, Asset Strategies International and Advantage Gold.

Americans can also tuck some gold in their IRAs.

If you must buy an ETF, I like the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE-IAU) levying just 0.25% per annum in fees.

Also, providing much less liquidity but also less expensive, is the Graniteshares Gold Trust (NYSE-BAR), charging an industry-leading 0.175% in annual fees.

Silver is also dirt-cheap, especially compared to gold.  The Gold-to-Silver ratio sits at its highest levels in more than 30 years, meaning silver is extremely undervalued compared to gold.

Though more cyclically tied to the global economy, silver is nevertheless a monetary metal and will follow gold prices higher. From its high of $48.60 an ounce in 2011, silver is down a dizzying 66% at just $16.44 an ounce. I like the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE-SLV).

No other real asset has endured a deeper bear market than commodities. From all-time highs in July 2008, commodities are still down more than 60%.

Historically, inflation tends to rise after periods of low inflation, and vice versa. Considering how conventional market wisdom has essentially ‘given up’ on rising inflation after almost four decades of falling prices coupled with the prospects of significantly higher U.S. deficit financing, real assets look like a big bargain in mid-2019.

Inflation has been held down over the last 20 years by low interest rates and increased global productivity created by the introduction of computers and the internet into commerce.

The benefits of these technological advances are likely to wane and added to the problems created by an aging  society and wanton government spending… we can logically expect a dramatic increase in inflation.

See one way to beat inflation by leveraging speculations in silver and gold with an overpriced US dollar below.

ENR Asset Management is one of the few SEC registered investing advisors that can assist American investors in banking in Austria and Switzerland.  For details send me a note with the words AUSTRIA in the subject line to gary@garyascott.com

Gary

Turn $250 into $51,888, Guaranteed

Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less.

I first spotted an opportunity in 1986.   Two short term distortions (in the price of silver and the strength of the British pound) created potential for huge profits.  I wrote in a report (called the “Silver Dip”) that told how to borrow British pounds to speculate in silver and earn over $50,000 profit.  That’s the headline I used then in 1986, “Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less”.

The report showed how to take borrow overpriced British pounds and invest the loan in under priced silver.   $250 was required to set up the loan.  No other cash was needed to borrow the pounds.

Readers who followed the report made $46,299 on the no cash investment in only one year

Then in 2015 I spotted the same distortion again.  The British pound was overvalued.  Silver was undervalued. 

I quickly issued a report… the “Silver Dip 2015” that looked at how similar conditions to 1986 had fallen into place.  The price of silver had reached a six year low.  The British pound strength was rising.  The dollar per pound rate was $1.55 per pound, exactly the same as in 1986 and the silver/gold ratio rose over 80 just as in 1986.

That report revealed the iShares Silver Trust, a silver ETF  and during the year after issuing this report, the share price rose from $13.57 per share to $19.60 in 2015.

The rise in the silver price created a nice profit.   The currency and leverage tactics within the strategy turned the nice profit into a very nice profit.

A $10,000 (6,451 British pounds) loan purchased 736 shares at $13.57.  In 2015 the shares rose to $19.60 and were worth $14,425 (up 44.25%).

Those profits were spectacular by any stretch of the imagination but turned out even better because the profits above excluded the forex profit.

In 2015-2016 , the British pound dropped almost exactly as it did 30 years ago!  The British pound fell from $1.55 per pound to $1.33 per pound.

At $1.33 per pound, the 6,451 pound loan only required $8,575 to pay back the loan.  This created an extra $1,425 forex profit.

When the opportunity appeared again last year, I updated the report to  “Silver Dip 2018”.

The 2018 report showed how the opportunity for this speculation was even better than it was in 2015.

Yet the profits have not yet arrived.  This allows me to make an amazing no-risk guaranteed offer to you.

Silver Dip 2019 includes profit calculations for 2019 and I offer you the report “Silver Dip 2019” with a year long guarantee.

“If the profits recommended in the report don’t arrive by the end of the year, I’ll give you a complete and full refund”.

That’s right if the tactic described in Silver Dip 2019 do not hit their target, you don’t have to pay a thing for the report.

Investing in silver ETFs leveraged with margin loans may create extraordinary profits in 2019.

The “Silver Dip 2019”  shows how to easily make an ideal speculation for almost any amount.   The report shows when and how to get margin loans in dollars, British pound, Japanese yen or euro.

In fact you learn how to borrow in 23 different currencies, even Russian rubles, so you can choose the weakest currency with the lowest interest rates.

Low Interest Loans

Interest on the loan won’t eat up profits.  The “Silver Dip 2019” shows how to borrow many currencies right now for less than 2%.

The Silver Dip is only exercised when conditions are absolutely ideal.  Value investors never push this rule.  Investment and speculative markets are full of rumor, conjecture (a lot of it false) and hidden agendas.  The Silver Dip relies instead on a really simple theory… that the price of gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s price should maintain a parity with gold.  When that parity is out of balance (as it has been since August 2018) silver’s price is ready to explode.

The “Silver Dip 2019” explains how to speculate in silver ETFs plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in silver if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment:  who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons why conditions are excellent for better for a Silver Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2019” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2019” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in silver.

Learn how to beware of certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how silver profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of silver’s price with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine its real value.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of silver to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2019  $39.95

The benefit of 50 years experience in watching markets, metals, bonds, interest rates and currencies, I have learned many special pricing situations to watch for.

These special opportunities do not appear every day.  That’s why they are special.

Unless you have seen them come and go, it’s hard to see them coming again.

That is why I was willing to wait for years for silver to be in a special pricing position.

Our courses and reports are about finding good value and they have been helping astute readers find value investments, again and again for 50 years.

The “Silver Dip 2019” report shows a current huge opportunity.  I continuously watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.   Sometimes a rare quirk, such as the currency distortions, low cost loans and low silver price  offer potential for profit, with very little risk of long term loss.

Investors who speculate on these aberrations at the correct time can make fortunes.

The time is now.

Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

We are stalking precious metal opportunity now.

The trap is set. We are waiting…

This opportunity is explained in the report “Silver Dip 2019”.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Here is why there is no risk for you.  The report is 100% guaranteed.

I do not sell book, reports and courses.  I offer benefits.  If  the Silver Dip 2019 does not bring you the benefits you expect, just let me know any time in 2019 and I’ll send you a quick, no questions asked, full refund.

I can’t promise that silver’s price will rise in 2019 but  I can guarantee you’ll be fully satisfied with the report or… you can have your money back in full.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Gary

(1) www.in2013dollars.com/College-tuition-and-fees/price-inflation