Tag Archive | "forex"

Combine Value and Forex Shifts


Here’s why I sometimes break several of my investing rules.

One rule is to invest only in good value markets.

I invest instead in country ETFs that invest in the Good Value Markets outlined in the Keppler Asset Mangement analysis of 46 stock markets around the world.

Yet I hold asset in this market, the iShares MSCI Canada (EWC) ETF.  The Canadian stock market is  a neutral , not good, value market.  I’ll explain why in a moment.

Another rule is… don’t hold individual shares. 

Yet I hold shares in the Canadian Brookfield Renewable Energy.

canada

There are two reason why I have broken from my discipline.

The first reason I depart from this routine has to do with distortions in currency.  

One way to determine the future parity of one currency versus another is to compare the nation’s federal debt.

According to ciecdata.com (1) the United State’s Government debt accounted for 125.5% of the country’s Nominal GDP in June 2020, compared with the ratio of 107.8 % in the previous quarter.

To make matters worse, as the graph bellow from Statisica.com (2) shows,  that this debt grew by over a trillion dollars in the next months, so the percentage of debt to GDP.

canada

Canada’s pubic debt is 53.3% of its GDP compared to the US debt of over 125.5%

50 years of tracking and investing in  currency distortions has been very profitable for me and one measure of a currencies potential strength (versus another) is the difference in debt per gdp.  In this case the US debt  is 135% higher than Canada’s.

This difference suggests a huge potential surge in the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar.

The chart below of the Canadian dollar versus the green back shows a history of dramatic swings in parity.  The chart also shows that this is a likely time for the loonie to rise versus the buck.

canada

In the past decade the Canadian dollar has been at a high strength, worth as much as high as US$1.07 and as week as US$.71 cents.  That’s a 50% difference and the Canadian dollar was at the all time low just over a year ago.

Since then the Canadian dollar has climbed back to US$.76 but I believe has a long way it can still rise.  To my way of thinking this adds extra value to Canadian shares.

The second reason I invest beyond country ETFs is top suport (and profit from) something I believe in.

Here’s an example of how investing in value combined with a currency distortion, into something I feel is doing good in the world, can pay off.

I have believed in green investing for many years.  In January 2009 I invested in Brookfield Renewable Power Units at C$19.75 (at that time about US$15), because this company is all about renewable energy.

Since then, the shares have paid dividends each year of about 6% as the price has risen.

The Brookfield Renewable Power Fund was later merged into a much larger Brookfield Renewable Partnership and then partnership shares were given shares in Brookfield Renewable Corp.

I made this investment because I like renewable power and thought the Brookfield shares were good value at that time, plus because I felt that there was a distortion in the US/Canadian dollar parity.

My decision to invest in Brookfield Renewable Power Fund was based on multi currency reasoning as well as my quest for good value and income producing equities.

I keep about 5% of my portfolio in Canadian dollars and in January 2009 was looking for a good Canadian equity to add to the portfolio.

I looked first for value… second a good yield… third… growth potential… fourth… safety commiserate with risk premium (or discount)… and finally for an investment in the Canadian dollar.

When I reviewed the Brookfield Renewable Power Fund, I looked at earnings and took into account the demographics and potential for electricity prices to rise.

Then I asked, “Is this an investment suited to the longer view?” Electricity created by liquid (hydro power) and gas (wind power) seemed a good environmental option.

I invested US$30,000.

This has been a good investment as all the positive forces have pushed together.

Dividends have grown dramatically.  Already this year (2020) the shares have paid US$8,848 dividend and my original US$30,000 is now worth US$350,719.75.

Always keep value in mind and stick mostly to country ETFs that represent good value markets.  But if I believe that an investment in a neutral value market can enforce a social value, I am not afraid to invest in it.

The profit does not always materialize.  That’s why it’s important to factor in value and to diversify.

Some years back I invested in an Australian company growing sandalwood plantations.  I believe in the healing nature of essential oils and this project helped make sandalwood sustainable.  I did not properly assess the company’s debt load, (nor the integrity of the management) which impacted the share’s value.  The shares more than doubled in a year before going bankrupt, so I lost the entire $50,000 invested there.

Stop loss management (shame on me for not having it) might have also helped.

This is the nature of stock markets.  They rise and fall.  Some share prices skyrocket.  Other explode.  We can gain safety from the explosions by diversifying in good value ETFs.  Yet when we see a share that represents a value we believe in, it can make sense to invest, if we are careful in assessing the mathematics of the share’s value as well as the social value.

Gary

Add Safety, Profit & Get Paid Double

The next four years will be a period of high overseas stock growth.

The chart below shows the last 26 years of real-time forecasting by the global equity analyst we track to make our portfolio decisions.

The analyst is Keppler Asset Management and the index they create The KAM Equally Weighted World Index is 15.4% below the value that the analyst forecast four years ago in September 2016.

The chart shows how in the past, two and a half decades there have been four opportunities (red Xs) when the entry levels in global markets were below or around the lower valuation band.  In the previous three low points like this, there has always been the highest growth and positive returns three to five years later.

keppler

 

So it’s good to know that if you invest in global stock markets overall, now, you’ll make capital gains over the next four or five years.

More importantly you get paid more income now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not in 2020.

This year equities have been paying a higher yield than bonds.

As of November 2020, according to Ycharts.com, (1)  AA bond yields are at 1.59%.

ycharts.com

 

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.68% as of November 2020 .  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.59% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact US shares pay one of the lousiest average yields of the 46 stock markets we, via Keppler, monitor around the world.

Eight solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay more than double the average US yield.  They pay  3.57% compared to the US yield of 1.68%.

keppler

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years.

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only five times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course uses Keppler analytics to track 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Pi teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for most stock markets around the world.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of higher performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) Ycharts.com corporate bond yields

(1) www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/government-debt–of-nominal-gdp

(2) www.statista.com/statistics/273294/public-debt-of-the-united-states-by-month/

(3) https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/Canadian dollar

Chinese Solution to a Weaker US Dollar


Here’s how to profit as the Chinese Yuan replaces the Japanese yen and the US dollar falls.

Last week, an article at this site, Inflation Fears,  shared the idea of investing in Chinese government bonds.  I wrote: The Treasury of the world’s second-largest economy has been relatively restrained in terms of stimulus. Nominal ten-year Chinese yields, currently at 3.15% according to FactSet, are around 2.45 percentage points higher than U.S. Treasurys, and the gap in real terms is even higher. If U.S. inflation accelerates, and especially if the Fed keeps rates low anyway, then that return could get an extra boost from the impact of a falling dollar relative to the yuan.

Here’s another Chinese yuan idea.

Last week we sent our Purposeful Investing course (Pi) subscribers the October 20202 special advisory produced by ENR Asset Management (1) for its largest clients.  This bulletin is only available to these large ENR clients and PI subscribers.

ENR is one of the very few SEC registered investment advisors that can help US investors bank and hold assets with non US banks.

In this issue, ENR President Eric Rosemen reviewed ideas on how to overcome the risk of a weaker US dollar and gain from a falling greenback with investments in China the Chinese yuan.

Eric wrote: Soaring deficits, plunging tax revenues because of Covid-19 shutdowns, the Fed’s determination to keep rates low and the possibility of some countries recovering before the United States in 2021, all portend to a weaker dollar. It’s also no secret the Trump administration has been calling for a weaker dollar since 2017. Let’s not forget a weaker American currency is bullish for exports, grows much needed inflation and boosts the value of stocks with foreign revenues. The S&P 500 Index would certainly benefit from a weak buck.

I think the United States wants a weaker dollar.

In my view, the Chinese yuan is a great way to play this trade. China’s currency is cheap. Even before the pandemic, the yuan was making progress versus the dollar – despite an ongoing trade war since 2017.

The economy is emerging from Covid-19 well ahead of other countries with exports, domestic consumption and PMI data all pointing to an economy gaining momentum. That should boost the yuan further.

The yuan is near a three-year high. China’s central bank has been less dovish than major counterparts and hasn’t cut any of its key policy rates since May. That makes Chinese bonds more attractive compared to other sovereigns because the rate gap remains wide. With the yield on Chinese 10-year government bonds above 3%, the yield advantage over U.S. Treasury’s has hit record highs above 2.4 percentage points. And index-based assets are piling into domestic Chinese debt markets.

Last week, FTSE Russell, a major index service-provider, decided to add China to its flagship global government bond index following similar moves by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Bloomberg LP.

I would not buy Chinese government or corporate debt at these levels. The markets have come a long way and remain overbought. Instead, buy the yuan through the Wisdom Tree Chinese Yuan Strategy Fund.

To be sure, the yuan has rallied sharply since last spring, up almost 4% against the dollar. But I think the yuan will increasingly serve to compliment or even replace the Japanese yen as Asia’s leading ‘haven’ currency, especially as trade surpluses continue to grow.

enr china

CYB trades currency forward contracts to maximize to exposure to the yuan. Over the past ten years, CYB has gained just 1% per annum – amid a secular USD bull market.

That’s not terrible, considering.

I’m expecting bigger gains as the dollar begins a bear market. The ETF charges 0.45% per annum in expenses and manages $24.7 million. BUY the Wisdom Tree Chinese Yuan Strategy Fund (NYSECYB).

The Chinese currency should be a wise investment as it represents the world’s second largest (and growing), economy.   China has artificially kept the yuan weak to support China’s export.  This tactic cannot go on forever and history shows us that the longer a government use force to represses anything of true power in the natural order, the greater the correction when the human interference no longer works.

The Chinese yuan could at some point see a break away from the US dollar and Japanese yen.  If so, those holding yaun at that time will find owning the currency like holding something better than gold.

I personally hold my yuan investments via the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (symbol FXI).

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

A model portfolio that dates back to 1969 has dramatically outperformed almost every stock market in the world.

keppler

A hundred US dollars invested in that portfolio in 1969 is now worth $44833 compared to $100 invested in an equity weighted world index being worth $11,548.

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/5969522855/in/photolist-beyJPF-pYvfe7-pYHV9r-qCX6Hq-qVmruD-pVyWxW-pUtDQy-beyJKB-be2Vea-be2V8D-bdYR62-bdYQX8-a7uRac-8PfzPQ-gskKT2-9yFhgs-jhDBN5-oY2vKG-oY2vGf-pMRzwD-pvDkXw-omJfmE-omJfjA-nbxJy3-nbxG5v-ffbJoB-sqpKWf-rZk6w1-ffqVCW-ffpgqC-fdY26b-fdXMj9-fdTFSu-fdTFR9-dnHE2V-djvnMu-cy55vQ-8k2oGJ-bzacAf-bQUepe-fdGpvM-eaKSRm-eaEf7n-a6vnfn-a6vnaR-9KPyXR-bVjboz-bVjbmK-ccFr4U-ccFr2Y

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2020.   There have been no changes since.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: China, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Germany (symbol EWG) is a Country Index ETF  that tracks the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index. The fund is at all times invested at least 80% of its assets in the securities of its underlying index that primarily consists of all the large-and mid-capitalization companies traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market in our Pifolio.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing. Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades. This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

keppler

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Save $102 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years,  right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $99 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

(1) enrassetmanagement.com

Are Trillions Too Much?


Expect costs to rise and the US dollar to fall.

The US government has added trillions of dollars in debt and this is causing the US dollar to fall.

Our good value portfolio is gaining dramatically because all shares held are in non US dollar markets.

How much money can be dumped into a national (or the global) money supply before there is rampant, runaway inflation?

Answering this questions is perhaps the most important economic question we can face in the decade ahead.

The answer can help us prepare for either a deflationary or inflationary scenario.

NYT.com

A reader recently asked this question: Here’s a quick question I’ve been puzzling about… so we’re all very aware that the US, UK and many other governments have been borrowing literally TRILLIONS of dollars to support their economies during the pandemic – but where is that money all coming from? Who, even collectively has trillions sitting around waiting to be loaned? I cant imagine banks, investors, funds etc have that just waiting around to be loaned? So where does that come from ? Sorry if its a silly Q. I presume the answer is something along the lines that money just gets moved around and pulled out of lower return investments and loaned on better rates in bulk to governments. But then I wonder how they can do that so quickly. Presumably agreements in place mean they cant just pull trillions from one sources and reinvest it in another at the drop of a hat. But seemingly they can?  Thanks!

This is a good question and the answer is not one that’s much understood, partly because it seem so outrageous.

That money is created by the Federal Reserve Bank or the Bank of England or the EU central bank, mostly by the push of a button.

The US the government gets money in three ways; tax, borrow or print (ie push a button nowadays).

When it needs more than borrowers (such as Japanese, Chinese, Middle Eastern, US investors and governments) have available, they use a technique called “Fed Accommodation”.

In simple terms the Fed just increases its balance sheet by entering that fact into its computers. In other words it says… “we have more money”.

Then with this new money it created out of thin air, it buys the government bonds.

There is more sophistication to this as the Fed also creates money by lowering reserves that banks have to have or lending the banks money (again by simply entering into their computer that they have more money). The banks then lend this on to the public which increases the money supply.

This week’s Wall Street Journal article “Behind the Vast Market Rally: A Tumbling Dollar” (1) shows how this creating of many makes the US dollar fall.

Investors are ramping up wagers on the falling currency, believing the surge in coronavirus cases will hamper U.S. business activity and drive even more government spending.  The dollar has made a sharp U-turn this summer following a long rally, confounding many traders but potentially adding fuel to this year’s surprising stock-market rebound.

The ICE Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, in July notched its worst month in nearly a decade and recently hit a two-year low. The fall extended a reversal that began in late March, spurred lately by ballooning worries that mounting coronavirus cases will stall the U.S. economic rebound, even as growth accelerates in countries from China to Germany.

wsj.com

Big-name investors such as Ray Dalio and Jeffrey Gundlach have recently said publicly that the flood of U.S. government spending being injected into the financial system could eventually stoke inflation, eroding consumers’ purchasing power. Surging budget deficits tend to make investors less likely to hold a country’s currency. Fitch Ratings on Friday revised its credit rating outlook for the U.S. to negative from stable, though it maintained its top, triple-A rating.

At the same time, the currency’s slide is adding further support to the booming market rally, lifting stocks and commodities. A weaker dollar boosts multinational companies, which see their products get more competitive abroad and can more easily convert overseas profits into dollars. It also makes products and investments that are priced in the currency cheaper for overseas investors, supporting demand for a host of financial assets. U.S. stocks have climbed near five-month highs recently, while raw materials are paring much of their 2020 decline.

“These things are denominated in dollars, and the dollar is getting crushed,” said Christopher Stanton, chief investment officer of Sunrise Capital Partners. He expects the trend to continue and is directly wagering against the currency, betting on gains in the euro against the dollar and buying gold, which some investors are using as an alternative store of value. Gold recently climbed to all-time highs for the first time since 2011.

The US is a poor value market, so all of the investments in our Good Value portfolio are in NON US dollar markets.  This is adding extra profit, that’s safer because of the value and  because this portfolio pays a much higher average dividend than the US market.

Gary

Protect Your Wealth From a US Dollar Loss

Here are three steps to multi currency profits.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve and increase our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make you smarter than the smartest man in the world.

sir issac newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market.  His comment was “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence of value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why the data we use in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) is created by  mathematicians not economists.

I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline so you can use math, not emotion to protect and increase your wealth.

There are time tested mathematical systems that can help you know when to take profits that maximizes gains and minimizes loss.

These systems help you seek value but also create disciplined exit strategies because one of the toughest decisions most of us have is to know when to sell a rising or falling share.

Human nature makes it harder to let winners run, than to cut loses.

To easily spot good value and stick to it, we use Keppler Asset Management  as our first source of data.

Keppler’s analysis begins with a continual researches of corporate information on thousands of shares in 46 major stock markets. Keppler compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Keppler explains why a Top Value Country Selection Strategy for equities is important and says in his analysis: Among the generally accepted reasons for taking a global perspective in investments is the historical fact that no nation can maintain economic and political pre-eminence ad infinitum.

Studies have shown that, regardless of the investor’s national market and currency, diversified global equity portfolios, over longer periods, offer higher returns at lower risk than investments in national markets.

Keppler Asset Management Inc. (KAM) was  founded by Michael Keppler in 1992.  KAM is an SEC–registered investment advisory firm dedicated to finding and exploiting investment opportunities in the global equity markets. Based in New York, they advise institutional investors worldwide and help manage published mutual funds with total assets exceeding two billion US dollars. Plus they advise many private pension funds by specializing in active quantitative portfolio strategies that aim to deliver superior long-term performance and seek to limit risk through a firm commitment to value.

Starting in 2009, KAM was named Best Fund Company in the Fund category, five years in a row, by Capital, a leading German business magazine.

That’s my simplicity secret for keeping track of where to invest.  Using Keppler’s data has served me well for 25 years.  This is an effective easy system that does not requires a lot of time and avoids being drowned in a sea of conflicting opinions about what investment to make next.

More good news is that Keppler does not manage individual accounts and though SEC registered and headquartered in New York, does not mange funds for US customers.  That means that not many US investors are tapped into the information we use.

That’s why I created our Purposeful Investing Course, one of the few, if not the only sources of Keppler analysis for individual investors.

Here is how to tap into this valuable information on a no risk basis right now.

The Purposeful Investing Course combines Keppler analysis with research on low cost, good value country ETFs.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 16 country ETFs, along with precious metals.   This is also why this position has hardly changed in the past five years. During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 16 shares and have traded only six times.

This portfolio above is based on stock price-to-value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of 16 country ETFs. Each ETF  covers  one of the stock markets that are undervalued.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally hold now.

70% of the equities is diversified into iShares ETFs that represent Keppler’s nine good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Austria, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the equities are invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Malaysia, Mexico and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The big bonus.  You get paid more now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not right now.

This chart from the New York Times article “The Mystery of High Stock Prices” (1) shows that equities pay a higher yield than bonds.

wsj.com

Most Important, Get Paid the Most Now!

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact the chart below shows that US shares pay one of the lousiest yields of the 46 stock markets we monitor around the world.

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.91%.  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.6% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Nine solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay 71% higher yield, 3.27% compared to the US yield of 1.91%.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years. 

This strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term dividend income right now.

In a moment, I’ll show how to push that yield to 4.07% per annum without adding additional risk.

keppler62020

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only three times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top (or neutral in the case of Canada and Australia) value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Pi strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

I am updating my plan to increase my average yield to as much as 4.07%.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The average yield of these nine markets combined was 3.27% as of June 2020.  By replacing the three lowest yielding markets, Austria (.64%), Germany (1.83%)  and Japan (2.51%)  with two better yielding neutral markets Australia (4.57%) and Canada (3.54%) the average annual yield on the entire portfolio rises to 4.07%.

4.07% is 154% higher than the 1.6% you can currently earn on AA rated corporate bonds!

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) www.nytimes.com: mystery of high stock market prices

www.wsj.com: Behind the vast market rally a tumbling dollar

New Multi Currency Sandwich Tactics


In response to last moth’s message about speculating in a Norwegian kroner multi currency sandwich, a Pi subscriber asked this question.

The question was: I also wanted to know what Gary’s thoughts were on shorting the US dollar against the Norwegian kroner  instead of buying the IShares Norwegain ETF (symbol ENOR)? And does he still like the idea of the multi-currency sandwich now that rates are all low around the globe? I know I’m not getting paid much in terms of the carry but there might be some good price appreciation or deprecation for gains. I know this is probably more of a trading question even though I was thinking longer term short US dollar and long other currencies like Chinese yuan, Norwegain and, Swedish kroner.

I’m glad the reader asked because the answer to this question make a perfect Pi lesson that gets to the roots of the Pi strategy.

norway

Five year chart iShares MSCI Norway ETF (ENOR) ETF.  Light blue line is S&P 500.

First the basic answer for short term currency trading is… beware.  Short term currency trading for most of us is not a good idea.

The root benefit of Pi is to avoid the high costs of active trading… and to avoid getting in any arena where big companies with huge reserves, high tech and top trading skills can manipulate markets (such as the currency market).

Most important, Pi aims to reduce stress and protect ourselves from our natural risk aversion bias.

Short term currency trading has all three of the obstacles (trading costs – risk of ruthless big business manipulation and risk of quick, large loss).

Most of us should avoid this.

Long term currency trading (multi currency sandwich) uses currency values and looks for a strong currency with weak fundamentals and low interest rate (US dollar) to be borrowed and invested into a weak currency with strong fundamentals (Norwegian krone) WHEN the weak currency has a higher interest rate than the strong.

The differences in the interest creates “Positive Carry”,  a position where the investor makes a positive yield for taking the forex risk. If the dollar could be borrowed at 3% and invested in krone at 5% or 6% there would be a sandwich opportunity… for those who have time to let the currency fundamentals work themselves out.  They would earn 2% or 3% per annum while they wait for the currency distortion to adjust.

At this time,  the krone has a lower interest rate than the US dollar so the sandwich requirements are not met.

That’s why the message was about borrowing dollars to invest in good value Norwegian shares, not cash or bonds.  The investor gets a high value equity investment denominated in a fundamentally strong currency that is currently weak instead of getting higher interest rates.

Investors who invest in iShares MSCI Norway ETF (ENOR), an ETF that invests in the Norwegian stock market, gets a high value investment and a forex opportunity.

There is even greater opportunity if investors borrow US dollars and invest in ENOR, but this increases short term risk.  The added leverage should  only be used by investors who have  time (maybe years) for the value equity distortions and forex tensions to resolve.

Regards,

Gary

Coronavirus and the Stock Market Round Two

Coronavirus and the stock market.  Round Two is coming.

This virus and the market faced off in the spring.  The market won.  As the chart below shows, after a huge March 2020 collapse,the DJIA is almost back to its December 2019 level.

stocks

The market’s back up, but history suggests that we’ll see volatility in the ten years ahead.

Here is a chart of the Dow Jones Index for the past three decades.  The .dotcom bubble burst just before the beginning of the 2000 decade.

microtrends.com

The market then went nowhere from 2000 to 2014.   Finally it started reaching new high levels.

Such decades long sideways movement after a severe correction is nothing new in the stock market.

So everything’s in order… except the pandemic.  The ravages of the coronavirus dramatically increase the unknown and this uncertainty is the greatest purveyor  of weakness that a stock market can have.

Such delays have profound implications for older generations who may need to cash in equities for income.  How do we maximize the return on your savings and investments during this extremely dangerous time?

For the past five years, my strategy, to protect against the next stock market crash and yet gain income and appreciation from rising share prices is to invest in an equally weighted portfolio of the value based country ETFs.

We track 46 stock markets around the world in our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) to determine which markets offer the best value so we can be in a perfect position to take advantage of stock market corrections all over the world.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) teaches an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.  Now I am updating my plan to decide when it’s best to invest more.

70% is diversified into developed markets: Austria, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide incredible diversification for safety.  For example, the iShares MSCI  Japan (symbol EWJ) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Japan Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Japan so an investment in the ETF is an investment in hundreds of different Japanese shares.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for almost every market.

You can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (Pi).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Those five decades of experience have taught me several incredibly valuable lessons.

The first lesson is that there is always something we do not know.

The second lesson is that stock market booms and busts always eventually return to value.

Third, the only sure way to succeed is to use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but during the pandemic to introduce you to this online course  I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy, diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

 

Silver Dip Reveiw


A recent lesson at our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) reminded subscribers of several commodity relationships that we should watch as value investors.

Commodities have extra value now because most stocks and bonds are priced at or near all-time highs, but commodities are priced far below their highs which peaked more than a decade ago.  In 2019, the main commodity index was 61% below its all-time high hit in 2008.

silver-price-article

On top of this, the U.S. Dollar rose against other currencies for its ninth year in a row.  The greenback is overvalued and this offers special opportunity using dollars to leverage some commodities.

The question “is gold and silver a good value now?”

Here are excerpts from our “Silver Dip 2019” report:

The value indicator the “Silver Dip” used in the 1980s and 2015 and now is simple. The strategy is based on the gold-silver ratio as a main indicator that the price of silver is a good value.

The threshold we watch for is a spread of 80. When the price of gold is 80 times (or more) higher than the price of silver history this suggests that silver is undervalued to gold and will rise faster than gold.

Rarely has the ratio been as high as 80, only five times in 36 years as the chart below shows.

In 2017 Platinum was the best option for speculation and the platinum ETF PPLT was recommended for the first time due to its ideal speculative position in 2017. That idea gold platinum ratio position remained throughout 2018 (we’ll review it later in this report), but the price trend of platinum also remained negative (and PPLT was stopped out) for the entire year.

Gold at or below $1,350 is also likely a good deal and the foundation of the Value Dip strategy is that ideal conditions are best when gold is in this price range.

As a general rule, platinum is undervalued when it sells for less than gold. As the chart below shows, platinum costs more than gold much more often than not. The fundamental reasons for platinum’s high price, including platinum’s supply scarcity, support this.

Gold was at $1551.90 an ounce Thursday morning January 17, 2020.

Silver’s price at 17.90 an ounce is at a gold silver ratio of 86 and platinum at $1004.00 an ounce is priced way below the price of gold.

This suggest that both silver and platinum will rise faster than the price of gold, but gold price may be a bit high at this time.

We’ll reexamine gold’s valuation in the “Silver Dip” 2020 update.

Gary

If you are a Pi Subscriber access the “Silver Dip” free at your lesson introduction.

Buy Silver Dip 2019 now. Get Silver Dip 2020 Update Free

Why Leverage Silver ETFs

Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less?

I first spotted an opportunity in 1986.   Two short term distortions (in the price of silver and the strength of the British pound) created potential for huge profits.  I wrote in a report (called the “Silver Dip”) that told how to borrow British pounds to speculate in silver and earn over $50,000 profit.  That’s the headline I used then in 1986, “Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less”.

The report showed how to take borrow overpriced British pounds and invest the loan in under priced silver.   $250 was required to set up the loan.  No other cash was needed to borrow the pounds.

Readers who followed the report made $46,299 on the no cash investment in only one year

Then in 2015 I spotted the same distortion again.  The British pound was overvalued.  Silver was undervalued. 

I quickly issued a report… the “Silver Dip 2015” that looked at how similar conditions to 1986 had fallen into place.  The price of silver had reached a six year low.  The British pound strength was rising.  The dollar per pound rate was $1.55 per pound, exactly the same as in 1986 and the silver/gold ratio rose over 80 just as in 1986.

That report revealed the iShares Silver Trust, a silver ETF  and during the year after issuing this report, the share price rose from $13.57 per share to $19.60 in 2015.

The rise in the silver price created a nice profit.   The currency and leverage tactics within the strategy turned the nice profit into a very nice profit.

A $10,000 (6,451 British pounds) loan purchased 736 shares at $13.57.  In 2015 the shares rose to $19.60 and were worth $14,425 (up 44.25%).

Those profits were spectacular by any stretch of the imagination but turned out even better because the profits above excluded the forex profit.

In 2015-2016 , the British pound dropped almost exactly as it did 30 years ago!  The British pound fell from $1.55 per pound to $1.33 per pound.

At $1.33 per pound, the 6,451 pound loan only required $8,575 to pay back the loan.  This created an extra $1,425 forex profit.

When the opportunity appeared again last year, I updated the report to  “Silver Dip 2018”.

The 2018 report showed how the opportunity for this speculation was even better than it was in 2015.

Yet the profits have not yet arrived.  This allows me to make an amazing no-risk guaranteed offer to you.

Silver Dip 2019 includes profit calculations for 2019 and I offer you the report “Silver Dip 2019” with a year long guarantee.

“If the profits recommended in the report don’t arrive by the end of the year, I’ll give you a complete and full refund”.

That’s right if the tactic described in Silver Dip 2019 do not hit their target, you don’t have to pay a thing for the report.

Investing in silver ETFs leveraged with margin loans may create extraordinary profits in 2019.

The “Silver Dip 2019”  shows how to easily make an ideal speculation for almost any amount.   The report shows when and how to get margin loans in dollars, British pound, Japanese yen or euro.

In fact you learn how to borrow in 23 different currencies, even Russian rubles, so you can choose the weakest currency with the lowest interest rates.

Low Interest Loans

Interest on the loan won’t eat up profits.  The “Silver Dip 2019” shows how to borrow many currencies right now for less than 2%.

The Silver Dip is only exercised when conditions are absolutely ideal.  Value investors never push this rule.  Investment and speculative markets are full of rumor, conjecture (a lot of it false) and hidden agendas.  The Silver Dip relies instead on a really simple theory… that the price of gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s price should maintain a parity with gold.  When that parity is out of balance (as it has been since August 2018) silver’s price is ready to explode.

The “Silver Dip 2019” explains how to speculate in silver ETFs plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in silver if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment:  who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons why conditions are excellent for better for a Silver Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2019” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2019” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in silver.

Learn how to beware of certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how silver profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of silver’s price with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine its real value.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of silver to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2019  $39.95

The benefit of 50 years experience in watching markets, metals, bonds, interest rates and currencies, I have learned many special pricing situations to watch for.

These special opportunities do not appear every day.  That’s why they are special.

Unless you have seen them come and go, it’s hard to see them coming again.

That is why I was willing to wait for years for silver to be in a special pricing position.

Our courses and reports are about finding good value and they have been helping astute readers find value investments, again and again for 50 years.

The “Silver Dip 2019” report shows a current huge opportunity.  I continuously watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.   Sometimes a rare quirk, such as the currency distortions, low cost loans and low silver price  offer potential for profit, with very little risk of long term loss.

Investors who speculate on these aberrations at the correct time can make fortunes.

The time is now.

Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

We are stalking precious metal opportunity now.

The trap is set. We are waiting…

This opportunity is explained in the report “Silver Dip 2019”.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Here is why there is no risk for you.  The report is 100% guaranteed.

I do not sell book, reports and courses.  I offer benefits.  If  the Silver Dip 2019 does not bring you the benefits you expect, just let me know any time in 2019 and I’ll send you a quick, no questions asked, full refund.

I can’t promise that silver’s price will rise in 2019 but  I can guarantee you’ll be fully satisfied with the report or… you can have your money back in full.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Gary

Currency Value Gift


Here’s a way to earn extra profit with the Multicurrency Sandwich.

You can invest even small amounts in the under priced currency mentioned below.

I recently sent subscribers of the Purposeful Investing Course a lesson about hidden value built into the Norwegian kroner.

That lesson included a quote from the December 2019 Market Outlook (1) from ENR Asset Management, an SEC registered investment advisor that helps US investors hold investment accounts overseas.   The Outlook provides the currency clue in its section on the Multi Currency Sandwich when it says (bolds are mine):

The NOK or Norwegian krone in October hit a record intraday low of 10.31 to the EUR. Its decline is hard to decipher. The krone is undervalued by many common measures. Norway’s economic performance is solid while budget and trade balances are in surplus.

The Norges Bank is the only European central bank hiking rates four times this year. The NOK should be strengthening, not declining. Though the NOK has long been correlated to oil prices, the export-dependency on salmon has increased markedly over the last decade. Having almost doubled since 2008, salmon prices have plunged 20% this year. Ten years ago, Norway exported about 15 times more oil than fish but that ratio has narrowed considerably to just 3.5 times, according to Nordea Bankin Oslo.

The chart below from www.finance.yahoo.com shows how the US dollar has risen continually against the Norwegian economy since 2018.

yahoo.com

The chart below from Economist.com shows that despite a weakening currency, Norway’s currency fundamentals are among the strongest in the world.

economist.com

Norway’s current account balance at +7.1% of GDP (versus -2.4% for the US) is among the highest of all developed markets.

The Norwegian government’s budget balance at a +6.6 (versus -4.7% for the US) is by far the strongest.

The kroner interest rate on ten year government bonds at 1.1% is below the US rate of 1.7%, but if the krone appreciates versus the US, the real return could be higher.

Despite these strong currency fundamentals, the kroner has fallen 8.6% against the US dollar.

This distortion creates a speculative potential in the Norwegian stock market because according to Keppler Asset Management’s top market selection strategy Norway is one of the top value developed markets.

This is where a double speculation opportunity comes in.  The Norwegian Krone is under priced and the Norwegian market is a good value market.

This adds a potential extra forex profit to investments in the Norwegian stock market.

One way to capture this potential is with an investment in the iShares country MSCI Norway ETF (symbol ENOR) (2).

Investors can buy small amounts of this ETF, or large, on US stock markets.

yahoo.com

The chart above from www.finance.yahoo.com shows how the Norwegian stock market as evidenced via the iShares MSCI Norway ETF (symbol ENOR) performed in a similar pattern to the S&P500 from 2015 to 2018, but has lagged seriously behind after.  Yet profits, earnings and yields in Norwegian shares have grown.  This has added value in this market.

I am personally going to overweight my position in ENOR.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

A model portfolio that dates back to 1969 has dramatically outperformed almost every stock market in the world.

keppler

A hundred US dollars invested in that portfolio in 1969 is now worth $44833 compared to $100 invested in an equity weighted world index being worth $11,548.

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2020.   There have been no changes since.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: China, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Germany (symbol EWG) is a Country Index ETF  that tracks the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index. The fund is at all times invested at least 80% of its assets in the securities of its underlying index that primarily consists of all the large-and mid-capitalization companies traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market in our Pifolio.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing. Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades. This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

keppler

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Save $102 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years,  right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the reports as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $99 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

(1) Read the entire December edition of ENR Asset Management’s Market Outlook here.

If prompted for a username and password, please use the following case sensitive keywords:

Username: enr

Password: Montreal

(2) See full details about the ishares.com MSCI ETF

 

Profit From Fear Part III


Time is the greatest tool for dealing with fear.

See how to use time to profit from low interest rate fear.

pixabay.com

This part three of this report that shows how to profit from investing in a scenario that I don’t think we have ever stumbled across before.

Fear is pushing the US stock market higher.

Normally fear pulls markets down and greed pushes them up.  Normally fear based appreciation only comes via hoarding… when panic is the ruling emotion.

The low interest rates paid on most currencies are making the US dollar and US stock markets increasingly poor values.

You can read part one of this report Profit From Fear  – Part II here.

In 1915, when I realized that low interst rates might hang around for awhile, I created the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) and set up my own portfolio based on the course.

From January 2016 to April 2018 my equity investing plan was simple and worked really well.

The strategy was to invest equally in ETFs that represented indices of good value, non US dollar equity markets.

The idea was based on the fact that the good value markets were selling at 1.35 times book and paid an average yield of 3.34% compared to the US market selling at 2.77 times book and paying a yield of only 2.15%.

Here were the market valuations in 2016.

keppler valuations

That strategy worked like magic through May 2018.  The logic was sound and the markets behaved as common sense said they should.  I was able to accumulate good value shares at bargain prices and have increasing capital gains potential because eventually, value always rules markets.  Plus I was being paid double the yield of the US market.

Beginning January 2018, the US dollar rose from 89 to 98 (10%) versus the US dollar Index.

enr asset management

The stronger US dollar, along with a host of other factors, attracted more demand to the US stock markets.

In 2018 markets everywhere sagged, but the rising greenback helped US markets recover more and faster at the expense of the  good value markets.

The chart of my personal Pifolio of good value markets shows that they have not recovered as well as the US market… yet.

The word YET is important and we’ll see why in a moment.

Screen Shot 2019-09-06 at 7.47.29 AM

The recovery and superb performance of the US market today is very different from the exuberance in the year 2000.

The 2000 market mania came from GREED attached to incredible increased productivity created by new technology.  The 2000 bubble was the DOTCOM bubble.  Investors paid too much for shares because they believed to strongly in the rise of internet commerce.  This was a typical overreaction to good news.

Today’s market highs are created by FEAR of low and negative returns in other forms of investment (such as bonds and CDs).

The US market and US dollar are overpriced because negative interest rates in other developed market currencies leave investors nowhere to go.

Our latest Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) lesson looked at how the collapse in global government bond yields since August 2019 is suggesting the world economy is sliding into recession over the next 12-24 months, if history is a guide.

The lesson featured the ENR Asset Management Advisory (1) that said:

An Upside-Down Sovereign Bond World

Many pundits claim the alarming trend of negative-yielding rates began in Japan. That’s not the case. The first country to sport a negative benchmark ten-year government bond yield was Switzerland back in January 2015. Japan followed in 2016, Germany and the Netherlands in the summer of 2016 and Denmark and Finland in the fall of that same year, according to David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff (Espresso with Dave, August 29). Eight other countries have followed since, including Ireland, Latvia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Belgium, Sweden, Austria and France. In the United States, benchmark 30-year Treasury bond have returned a stunning 27.6% total return in 2019 – the best calendar year since 2008 when it surged 34%.

ENR asset

An inverted yield curve, a phenomenon occurring when short-term bonds yield more than long-term bonds, has correctly predicted every recession since 1975.

Stocks can still rally amid an inversion, but eventually a bear market engulfs equities. The last such inversion occurred in 2005; by October 2007, the stock market peaked followed by a collapse in credit in mid-2008.

In late August, the 30-year Treasury bond yielded an all-time low of 1.95% — thirty basis points (0.30%) less than the Federal Funds rate. That’s unprecedented. As the dollar strengthens or at the very least, maintains its value vis-à-vis other currencies this year,
investors looking for a positive yield are heading to U.S. Treasury securities. Bonds aren’t cheap. But in a world where ‘breadcrumbs’ are the new normal for bond investors, T-bonds still look enticing compared to negative yields across most major government bond markets. In most major markets, negative-yielding bonds guarantee a capital loss at maturity as
investors pay for the privilege of lending to governments.

What are the lessons from Japan’s ultra-low bond yields since the 1990s and Switzerland more recently since 2015? The outcomes are dire. When Japanization or Swissification is shorthand for a sluggish business cycle, credit and equity investors should question the earnings outlook, recalling that Japanese stocks underperformed bonds for most of the country’s ‘lost decade.’ Combined with the ongoing yield curve inversion in the United States, investors should be wary of making bold risky bets.

In anticipation of an economic downturn, I  have moved an increasingly large share of my portfolio into US government bond ETFs.

The ENR Advisory reviews three such ETFs.

The Advisory says: Where to Find Safe Positive Yields

Outside of the global government bond market, investors still have opportunities to find a positive yield. Investment-grade corporate debt, high-yield bonds, convertible bonds and leveraged loans all continue to offer positive yields. However, with recession alarms sounding, we continue to recommend avoiding sub investment-grade securities or junk bonds. Credit spreads for riskier bonds have indeed risen over the last six weeks but still don’t provide enough yield coverage to compensate for rising credit downgrades – inevitable as this cycle ends. I’m frankly surprised we haven’t seen more credit downgrades this summer.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/48698268422/in/dateposted-public/

Another factor to consider is duration risk. Duration risk measures bond interest rate sensitivity; for example, if your average duration is ten years and rates rise 1%, you can expect to lose about 10% on your bond. With long-term Treasury bonds recording their best
annual returns since 2008, I’d reduce duration risk for new money coming into the market at these super low yields. Instead, consider an average duration in bonds no greater than seven years. The big bucks have already been made in long-term bonds, at least for now.

Emerging market USD bonds offer about 200 basis points or 2% more in effective annual yield (about 5.4%) compared to dollar-denominated intermediate-term Treasury and corporates. I don’t think that extra yield is worth the risk at this late stage of the cycle. If there’s a recession coming, you don’t want to own emerging markets.

1. Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (NYSE-VTEB). The first place to look for income is tax free, if possible. The less tax Uncle Sam and friends receive from you, the better. Vanguard does a super job with VTEB. The Fund holds over 4,200 tax exempt bonds
with an effective duration of 5.4 years. VTEB is up 7.4% this year. The expense ratio is just 0.08% per annum accompanied by a 2.34% trailing 12-month yield. With trailing 12-month U.S. CPI at 1.8%, this leaves the investor with a positive real return.

2. iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE-IEI). A safer avenue to Treasuries now is to buy a portfolio of intermediate-term securities. IEI sports an expense ratio of 0.15% per year and yields an effective 2.05%. The Fund is up 6.7% this year. The portfolio
owns 100% U.S. Treasuries harboring an effective duration of 4.45 years. This is a conservative investment for those investors looking for some income. The yield, at 2.05% currently, is now more than 90-day U.S. T-bills.

3. iShares Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE-CIU). U.S. and international corporations have near-record debt levels after binging on cheap credit over the past decade. Many U.S. companies have also borrowed to finance share buybacks. Despite
high debt levels, the largest corporations should be able to service debts in a recession.  This product provides wide diversification across U.S. investment-grade corporations with the Top Ten issuers including Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase & Co., Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Apple, Inc. The annual expenses are just 0.06% accompanied by a trailing 12-month yield of 3.60%. The Fund’s effective duration is 6.21 years. In 2019, CIU has gained 13.6%.

Bonds are expensive. There’s no arguing this point. In the past, I’ve even pegged most fixed income securities as ‘bubble’ investments following tremendous gains since 1981. Most bonds since 2013 don’t provide real returns or cover the cost of annual inflation. But my tune changed late last year as signs of economic trouble loomed. Trade wars, credit inversions, expensive asset prices for U.S. stocks and bonds, and an ageing economic cycle all point to more volatility ahead.

Many commentators have dismissed the fall in yields and rise in negative-yielding debt as proof of a bond ‘bubble.’ But it’s not a reflection of investors’ irrational exuberance and instead, symptomatic of a wake-up call for politicians to act to prevent a deflationary global economic downturn. I’m not sure central banks can deflect trade wars and the resultant consequences of tariffs. Instead, it might be time for some countries, like Germany, for example, to cut taxes. Others might consider fiscal relaxation to delay the economic reckoning. These include Canada, France, the Nordic countries and others.

Here’s My Plan

The logic of value is undeniable… a fact of reality that applies to all things of nature.

Take a wild animal walking.  It will always move along the path that requires the lowest expenditure of energy.  The animal will naturally seek level paths and avoid tangles and brush.

If a rich food source appears the animal will move off the easy track… as long as the added energy from the food exceeds the output to get it.  The animal will, in greed, even reduce its caution… as many wild things attracted to a pile of bait put out by a hunter, have learned the hard way.

If attacked by a predator the animal will move, in panic, uphill through bracken, thorns and bramble, even though a lot more energy is required.

The animal in greed and fear will expend inefficient amounts of energy, but eventually the animal will return to the  most economical path.

This is nature and the simple words that apply are:  fear… greed… value…  timing… balance.

I see the divergence of good value markets versus the US market as an opportunity but don’t have a clue when the fear of plunging stock markets will overcome the fear of low yields.

My plan is to keep five years of liquidity in top rated bond ETFs, so I can accumulate all other funds in good value investments without having to sell a thing.

This allows me to wait out the timing in the markets without disrupting the balance between my liquidity needs and the need for my investments to outpace inflation.

Each of us has our own liquidity…income… capital… appreciation formula to workout.   The numbers are not always easy to make compatible, but if you keep the three basic factors in mind,  value…  timing… balance, you’ll have a much better chance of maintaining financial stability.

I hope you have a good time, creating time for your good value investments to work.

Gary

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 52nd anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

(1) ENRAssetManagement.com

 

Free Forex Course


I have provided a link for a FREE online forex course at the end of this message.

I am making this 150 page course (the course was $149 when we published it in print) FREE online because a rare investing opportunity has presented itself.

In 1986, I first spotted this opportunity, when the gold silver ratio rose above 80 (an ounce of gold costs 80 times as much as an ounce of silver).  When this ratio exceeds 80… the odds of silver’s price rising faster than gold are good.  Really good!

I describe below how seeing that ratio in 1986 helped me make such huge profits that I wrote a report (The Silver Dip) so subscribers could make substantial, quick profits as well.

But as mentioned, the opportunity is rare and did not occur again for another 29 years.  When the gold silver ratio rose to 80 again in 2015, I updated the report.

This ten year chart of the gold silver ratio shows how the silver ratio had only risen above 80 once in the past decade, in 2015.

SILVER

Then in September 2018 the ratio shot up to all-time highs and has remained above 80 for six months now.  This is exceedingly rare and creates a huge… and potentially immediate profit potential.

SILVER

Knowing about a fast rising silver price can create excellent, fast profits in certain conditions.

See how these conditions are described in the updated Silver Dip Report and why there is so much forex and trading opportunity right now.  Then at the end of this message there is a link to the FREE 150 page course “International Currencies Made EZ”.

Why Leverage Silver ETFs

Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less?

I first spotted an opportunity in 1986.   Two short term distortions (in the price of silver and the strength of the British pound) created potential for huge profits.  I wrote in a report (called the “Silver Dip”) that told how to borrow British pounds to speculate in silver and earn over $50,000 profit.  That’s the headline I used then in 1986, “Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less”.

The report showed how to take borrow overpriced British pounds and invest the loan in under priced silver.   $250 was required to set up the loan.  No other cash was needed to borrow the pounds.

Readers who followed the report made $46,299 on the no cash investment in only one year

Then in 2015 I spotted the same distortion again.  The British pound was overvalued.  Silver was undervalued. 

I quickly issued a report… the “Silver Dip 2015” that looked at how similar conditions to 1986 had fallen into place.  The price of silver had reached a six year low.  The British pound strength was rising.  The dollar per pound rate was $1.55 per pound, exactly the same as in 1986 and the silver/gold ratio rose over 80 just as in 1986.

That report revealed the iShares Silver Trust, a silver ETF  and during the year after issuing this report, the share price rose from $13.57 per share to $19.60 in 2015.

The rise in the silver price created a nice profit.   The currency and leverage tactics within the strategy turned the nice profit into a very nice profit.

A $10,000 (6,451 British pounds) loan purchased 736 shares at $13.57.  In 2015 the shares rose to $19.60 and were worth $14,425 (up 44.25%).

Those profits were spectacular by any stretch of the imagination but turned out even better because the profits above excluded the forex profit.

In 2015-2016 , the British pound dropped almost exactly as it did 30 years ago!  The British pound fell from $1.55 per pound to $1.33 per pound.

At $1.33 per pound, the 6,451 pound loan only required $8,575 to pay back the loan.  This created an extra $1,425 forex profit.

When the opportunity appeared again last year, I updated the report to  “Silver Dip 2018”.

The 2018 report showed how the opportunity for this speculation was even better than it was in 2015.

Yet the profits have not yet arrived.  This allows me to make an amazing no-risk guaranteed offer to you.

Silver Dip 2019 includes profit calculations for 2019 and I offer you the report “Silver Dip 2019” with a year long guarantee.

“If the profits recommended in the report don’t arrive by the end of the year, I’ll give you a complete and full refund”.

That’s right if the tactic described in Silver Dip 2019 do not hit their target, you don’t have to pay a thing for the report.

Investing in silver ETFs leveraged with margin loans may create extraordinary profits in 2019.

The “Silver Dip 2019”  shows how to easily make an ideal speculation for almost any amount.   The report shows when and how to get margin loans in dollars, British pound, Japanese yen or euro.

In fact you learn how to borrow in 23 different currencies, even Russian rubles, so you can choose the weakest currency with the lowest interest rates.

Low Interest Loans

Interest on the loan won’t eat up profits.  The “Silver Dip 2019” shows how to borrow many currencies right now for less than 2%.

The Silver Dip is only exercised when conditions are absolutely ideal.  Value investors never push this rule.  Investment and speculative markets are full of rumor, conjecture (a lot of it false) and hidden agendas.  The Silver Dip relies instead on a really simple theory… that the price of gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s price should maintain a parity with gold.  When that parity is out of balance (as it has been since August 2018) silver’s price is ready to explode.

The “Silver Dip 2019” explains how to speculate in silver ETFs plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in silver if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment:  who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons why conditions are excellent for better for a Silver Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2019” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2019” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in silver.

Learn how to beware of certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how silver profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of silver’s price with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine its real value.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of silver to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2019  $39.95

The benefit of 50 years experience in watching markets, metals, bonds, interest rates and currencies, I have learned many special pricing situations to watch for.

These special opportunities do not appear every day.  That’s why they are special.

Unless you have seen them come and go, it’s hard to see them coming again.

That is why I was willing to wait for years for silver to be in a special pricing position.

Our courses and reports are about finding good value and they have been helping astute readers find value investments, again and again for 50 years.

The “Silver Dip 2019” report shows a current huge opportunity.  I continuously watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.   Sometimes a rare quirk, such as the currency distortions, low cost loans and low silver price  offer potential for profit, with very little risk of long term loss.

Investors who speculate on these aberrations at the correct time can make fortunes.

The time is now.

Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

We are stalking precious metal opportunity now.

The trap is set. We are waiting…

This opportunity is explained in the report “Silver Dip 2019”.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Here is why there is no risk for you.  The report is 100% guaranteed.

I do not sell book, reports and courses.  I offer benefits.  If  the Silver Dip 2019 does not bring you the benefits you expect, just let me know any time in 2019 and I’ll send you a quick, no questions asked, full refund.

I can’t promise that silver’s price will rise in 2019 but  I can guarantee you’ll be fully satisfied with the report or… you can have your money back in full.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Gary

Here’s a free course on international currencies for you.

A reader recently sent this note:

Gary, I have been receiving your newsletters since 2013 and really appreciate your knowledge and advice.  Do you know where I can go (website) to find out about Forex (foreign exchange)?  Someone told me about it and I wanted to research it.  I know I can goggle it but not sure what website is reputable.  If you have your own opinions, that would be good.  I know you are very busy.  Thanks so much.

Jyske-bank

I worked on forex trading for decades with Jyske Bank, one of the largest currency trading banks in Europe.  This is their trading hall.

Jyske-bank

Here I am at the bank’s huge, modern trading hall in Denmark, so of course I could help this reader.

I immediately replied: We have a course on Forex entitled “International Currencies Made EZ”.

This 150 page course provides the basics of forex and is free online to my subscribers.

To take the course “International Currencies Made EZ” free, simply click on the link below

https://www.garyascott.com/currez/index.html

Gary

 

 

 

When the Pound is Pounded – Part III


Three Reasons to be Bold on Gold, & Silver- Part III

Over the past three decades one of three profit laden distortions have appeared… occasionally.

Each of these distortions have created outstanding… almost unbelievable profits.

Never… ever… have I seen all three distortions appear at once… until now.   Thus I am rushing a three part report that looks at each distortion and explains how to cash in one them via an investing tactic I named The Silver Dip, over three decades ago.

This first segment of this report looks at the price of gold as the cornerstone of the Silver Dip.  If you missed part one, see it here.

When gold’s price is good value and silver prices are too high or low versus gold, conditions become ideal for a silver speculation.

Part II looked at why silver offers even more potential than gold right nowIf you missed prat II see it here.

In part III of this report we look at the surging  British pound.

In 1986 when I first issued The Silver Dip report it recommended borrowing British pounds at a parity of 1.55 dollars per pound.   Every $10,000 borrowed netted US$15,500 to buy 3,195 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  3,195 ounces of silver became worth $35,145.

There was even more profit because the pound crashed to $1.40 dollars per pound.

The loan which had generated $15,500 could be paid off for only $14,000, immediately creating an additional $1,500 profit.

In total, the profit was $36,645 in just a year.

The amazing part is that investors who had a safe portfolio of good value shares did not have to put up one cent of extra cash to make that profit.  Some investors in 1986 borrowed 100,000 pounds and made almost a half million in profit in just a year.

In September 2015, similar conditions fell into place.

I wrote the Silver Dip 2015 because the price of silver had again reached a six year low.

The British pound rate was again $1.55 per pound, exactly the same as in 1986!

From July 15, 2015 to July 15, 2016 the British pound fell from $1.55 per pound to $1.33 per pound.   Huge profits were reaped in silver’s prcie rise  and the pound’s fall.

Now the British pound is surging upwards versus the US dollar again.

Last week’s Wall Street Journal April 19, 2018 article “Pound Hits Post-Brexit High as Dollar Falls” (1) says:

The brighter economic picture may push the Bank of England to raise interest rates again, which could help boost the pound further

The pound hit its highest level against the dollar Tuesday since Britain voted to leave the European Union, buoyed by a weak greenback and belief a Brexit may be less punishing than investors had feared.

The pound hit $1.4377 in early London trading, its strongest since June 24, 2016, one day after the Brexit referendum.

Sterling is also benefiting from a weak dollar, which is falling given fears that a global trade war could hurt the U.S. economy, among other factors.

The pound’s performance has been less impressive against the euro. It is still 11% lower than where it traded just ahead of the EU-membership referendum.

These distortions create a trifecta of profit potential right now.  Gold’s price is a good value.  Silver is priced at an even better value than gold and the pound is reaching a stage where pound loans to invest in silver offers extra profit potential.

I urge you to study the information below.  These distortions do not come often and I have never seen all three coincide as they are now.  Such a treasure house of potential will not last long.

Gary

Turn $250 into $51,888, Guaranteed

Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less.

I first spotted an opportunity in 1986.   Two short term distortions (in the price of silver and the strength of the British pound) created potential for huge profits.  I wrote in a report (called the “Silver Dip”) that told how to borrow British pounds to speculate in silver and earn over $50,000 profit.  That’s the headline I used then in 1986, “Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less”.

The report showed how to take borrow overpriced British pounds and invest the loan in under priced silver.   $250 was required to set up the loan.  No other cash was needed to borrow the pounds.

Readers who followed the report made $46,299 on the no cash investment in only one year

Then in 2015 I spotted the same distortion again.  The British pound was overvalued.  Silver was undervalued. 

I quickly issued a report… the “Silver Dip 2015” that looked at how similar conditions to 1986 had fallen into place.  The price of silver had reached a six year low.  The British pound strength was rising.  The dollar per pound rate was $1.55 per pound, exactly the same as in 1986 and the silver/gold ratio rose over 80 just as in 1986.

That report revealed the iShares Silver Trust, a silver ETF  and during the year after issuing this report, the share price rose from $13.57 per share to $19.60 in 2015.

The rise in the silver price created a nice profit.   The currency and leverage tactics within the strategy turned the nice profit into a very nice profit.

A $10,000 (6,451 British pounds) loan purchased 736 shares at $13.57.  In 2015 the shares rose to $19.60 and were worth $14,425 (up 44.25%).

Those profits were spectacular by any stretch of the imagination but turned out even better because the profits above excluded the forex profit.

In 2015-2016 , the British pound dropped almost exactly as it did 30 years ago!  The British pound fell from $1.55 per pound to $1.33 per pound.

At $1.33 per pound, the 6,451 pound loan only required $8,575 to pay back the loan.  This created an extra $1,425 forex profit.

When the opportunity appeared again last year, I updated the report to  “Silver Dip 2018”.

The 2018 report showed how the opportunity for this speculation was even better than it was in 2015.

Yet the profits have not yet arrived.  This allows me to make an amazing no-risk guaranteed offer to you.

Silver Dip 2019 includes profit calculations for 2019 and I offer you the report “Silver Dip 2019” with a year long guarantee.

“If the profits recommended in the report don’t arrive by the end of the year, I’ll give you a complete and full refund”.

That’s right if the tactic described in Silver Dip 2019 do not hit their target, you don’t have to pay a thing for the report.

Investing in silver ETFs leveraged with margin loans may create extraordinary profits in 2019.

The “Silver Dip 2019”  shows how to easily make an ideal speculation for almost any amount.   The report shows when and how to get margin loans in dollars, British pound, Japanese yen or euro.

In fact you learn how to borrow in 23 different currencies, even Russian rubles, so you can choose the weakest currency with the lowest interest rates.

Low Interest Loans

Interest on the loan won’t eat up profits.  The “Silver Dip 2019” shows how to borrow many currencies right now for less than 2%.

The Silver Dip is only exercised when conditions are absolutely ideal.  Value investors never push this rule.  Investment and speculative markets are full of rumor, conjecture (a lot of it false) and hidden agendas.  The Silver Dip relies instead on a really simple theory… that the price of gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s price should maintain a parity with gold.  When that parity is out of balance (as it has been since August 2018) silver’s price is ready to explode.

The “Silver Dip 2019” explains how to speculate in silver ETFs plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in silver if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment:  who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons why conditions are excellent for better for a Silver Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2019” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2019” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in silver.

Learn how to beware of certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how silver profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of silver’s price with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine its real value.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of silver to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2019  $39.95

The benefit of 50 years experience in watching markets, metals, bonds, interest rates and currencies, I have learned many special pricing situations to watch for.

These special opportunities do not appear every day.  That’s why they are special.

Unless you have seen them come and go, it’s hard to see them coming again.

That is why I was willing to wait for years for silver to be in a special pricing position.

Our courses and reports are about finding good value and they have been helping astute readers find value investments, again and again for 50 years.

The “Silver Dip 2019” report shows a current huge opportunity.  I continuously watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.   Sometimes a rare quirk, such as the currency distortions, low cost loans and low silver price  offer potential for profit, with very little risk of long term loss.

Investors who speculate on these aberrations at the correct time can make fortunes.

The time is now.

Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

We are stalking precious metal opportunity now.

The trap is set. We are waiting…

This opportunity is explained in the report “Silver Dip 2019”.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Here is why there is no risk for you.  The report is 100% guaranteed.

I do not sell book, reports and courses.  I offer benefits.  If  the Silver Dip 2019 does not bring you the benefits you expect, just let me know any time in 2019 and I’ll send you a quick, no questions asked, full refund.

I can’t promise that silver’s price will rise in 2019 but  I can guarantee you’ll be fully satisfied with the report or… you can have your money back in full.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Gary

(1) wsj.com: sterling hits highest against dollar since brexit vote

Turn $250 into $51,888


Spectacular profit potential has developed with short term distortions and trends in the price of silver and the parity of the British pound.

Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less.

If someone offers you a deal like this, I would normally say “Run as fast as you can!

Yet in 1986, I spotted two short term distortions (in the price of silver and the strength of the British pound).  This is exactly what I wrote in a report (called “The Silver Dip”) that told how to borrow British pounds to buy silver.

I must admit.

I was wrong.

Readers who followed the report made nearly that amount ($46,299 to be exact) in only one year!

Then in 2015 I spotted the same distortion again.  Precious metal and British pound contrasts that had reaped huge rewards for me and many of my readers 30 years ago were repeating themselves.  I quickly issued a report… “The Silver Dip 2015”.

Now “The Silver Dip 2018” reveals that these trends have come into place again!

“The Silver Dip 2015” looked at potential profits in silver in 2015, similar conditions to 1986 fell into place. The price of silver had reached a six year low.  The British pound strength was rising.   The rate was $1.55 per pound, exactly the same as in 1986 and the silver/gold ratio rose over 80.  This ratio means that the price of silver is more likely to rise than the price of gold.

The report revealed the silver ETF, code named SLV, and it rose from $13.57 per share to $19.60 in less than a year.

This created a nice profit, but the currency and leverage tactics within the strategy turned the nice profit into a very nice profit.

$10,000 invested in shares at $13.57 purchased 736 shares (rounded down).  At $19.60 the 648 shares were worth $14,425 for a 44.25% rise in 1 year.

The report showed how the SLV speculation could be leveraged.  The leveraged performance was even better!

Take for example, an investment of $10,000 based on that report.  With no leverage, the $10,000 rose to $14,425 for a $4,425 profit or 44.25% gain on the original $10,000 invested.

One times leverage ($10,000 invested and $10,000 loan also invested) created $28,870 or a return of $18,544 after interest and loan payoff of $10,326 or 85.44% gain on the original $10,000 invested.

Two times leverage ($10,000 invested and $20,000 loan also invested) creates $43,316 or $22,664 after interest and loan payoff of $20,752 or 126.64% gain.

Three times leverage ($10,000 invested and $30,000 loan also invested) creates $57,761 or $26,783 profit after interest and loan payoff of $30,978 or 167.83% gain.

Those profits were spectacular by any stretch of the imagination but turned out even better because the profits above excluded the forex profit.

In 2015-2016 , the British pound dropped almost exactly as it did 30 years ago!  From July 15, 2015 to July 15, 2016 the British pound fell from $1.55 per pound to $1.33 per pound.

6,451 pounds borrowed in July 2015 at 1.55 converted to $10,000 to invest in SLV.

At 1.33 it only required $8,575 to pay back the loan.  This created an extra $1,425 forex profit.

Here are the profit figures of the Silver Dip from July 2015 to July 2016. (These calculations are approximate. The exact day a purchase or sale was made would change the profit or costs plus interest rates will have varied from lender to lender.  There would be also be trading costs that reduced the profits.  All are minor fluctuations compared to the profits.)

Gain on $10,000 invested.

 No leverage: $4,425 profit, a 44.25% gain.

With leverage $10,000 plus $10,000 loan invested created $9,969 profit, a 99.69% gain. 10,000 plus $20,000 loan invested created $15,514 or 155.14% gain.

10,000 plus $30,000 loan invested created $21,058 or 210.58% gain.

The Silver Dip  2018 update shows that the gold silver ratio is even higher now than it was in 2015.

Speculating in silver ETFs leveraged with British pound loans may create extraordinary profits this year.

The “Silver Dip 2018”  shows how to easily make an ideal speculation for almost any amount.  The report shows when and how to get a British pound loan.

Low Interest Loan

Interest on the loan won’t eat up profits.  The Silver Dip 2018 shows how to borrow British pounds right now for less than 2%.  The report shows another currency that can be borrowed for less than 1%.

Here is some history of the Silver Dip strategy.   “The Silver Dip” report of 1986 was the first specific investment report I ever published.  Silver had crashed in 1986, I mean really crashed, from $48 per ounce to $4.85 an ounce.  After I wrote that 1986 report, silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The 1986 Silver Dip described how to turn a $12,000 ($18,600) British pound loan (investors only had to put up $250 and no other collateral) into $42,185.

Circumstances relating to precious metals in 2015 were similar to those of 1986.  In May 1986, the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per pound.   The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit or total profit of $47,499 in just a year.

Imagine how my interest was aroused when in 2015, silver was in a similar crashed position and the British pound was again worth $1.55.  Low priced silver (compared to gold) and a 1.55 dollar per pound forex parity created an ideal condition for a speculation in silver.

The Silver Dip is only exercised when conditions are absolutely ideal.  Value investors never push this rule.  Investment and speculative markets are full of rumor, conjecture (a lot of it false) and hidden agendas.  The Silver Dip relies instead on a really simple theory… gold should rise about the same rate as other basic goods and the rise and fall of silver’s price should maintain a parity with gold.

Gold is the cornerstone of the Silver Dip.  When silver prices are too high or low versus gold, then the conditions become ideal for a silver speculation, if gold’s price is stable or too low.

Yet gold is one of the hardest assets to value.  As a gold bug who has been investing in gold since the mid 1970s, I know this is true.  I have seen too many predictions over the decades that have been wrong, and I doubt that this will change in our lifetimes.

In the spring of 2018, the ideal conditions returned. I began updating the “Silver Dip 2018” report.

Gold fits the ideal criteria for speculation.  Gold is a good value now in 2018.

The “Silver Dip 2018” explains how to speculate in silver ETFs plus outlines the following:

  • How to use the Silver Dip strategy without adding a penny of cash if you already have investments.
  • How to invest as little as a thousand dollars in silver if you do not have a current investment portfolio.
  • Why this is a speculation, not an investment and who should and should not speculate and how to limit losses and take profits.
  • Three reasons why conditions are excellent for better for a Silver Dip now.
  • Three different ways to invest and speculate in gold, silver or platinum in the US or abroad.
  • How to buy gold and silver or platinum with or without dollar leverage margin accounts.

The “Silver Dip 2018” also contains four matrices that calculate profits and losses so investors can determine cut off positions in advance to protect profits and/or losses.  The report also looks at how to switch time horizons for greater safety.

Rising interest rates make the stock market highly dangerous in the short term. “The Silver Dip 2018” shows how to create a safe, diversified good value stock portfolio and use it to generate much higher returns with a little controlled speculation in silver.

Learn how to beware of  certain brokers and trading platforms, how to choose a good bank or broker and how silver profits are taxed.

The report includes a complex comparison of gold and silver with other costs of living from 1942 to today to help determine the real value of gold, silver and platinum.

Finally, learn why and how to use advisers to manage profits from the gold and silver dips.

Current circumstances could cause the price of platinum to rise rapidly at any time.  Do not delay reading this report.

The Silver Dip sold for $79 in 1986.  Due to savings created by online publishing (we have eliminated the cost f paper and postage), we are able to offer this report for $39.95.

The silver dip may be a good investment for you or not.  You should get the facts so you can decide so I extend my no fooling around guarantee.

Order Silver Dip 2018 now.

Study it for a month.

If this is an investment that can earn extra for you, great.   If this is not the type of investment for you, just let me know and I’ll give you a full refund… no questions asked.

Gary

Order now by clicking here.  Silver Dip 2018  $39.95

Gary