Tag Archive | "finance"

Global Investing & Major Market Value Update


We’ll see a global investing major market value update in a moment.

First, let’s look at this important data that Thomas Fischer at Jyske Global Asset Management (JGAM) just shared.

Thomas Fischer is Senior Vice President of Jyske Global Asset Management.

thomas-fischer-jyske

Thomas began his banking career in 1975. In 1978  he started in the trading room as a Foreign Exchange dealer, and spent the next 22 years trading currencies. During this trading career he spent 2 years in London and 10 years in Germany where he was head of the international currency section of a major German brokerage company.

During his time in Germany he successfully completed an MBA focusing on the external environment and corporate finance.  In 2000 he joined Jyske Bank Private Banking and was promoted to Manager of International Client Relations in 2001.

In 2008 Thomas joined the newly established Portfolio Management Company Jyske Global Asset Management (JGAM), as Senior Vice President.  He is  a member of JGAM’s Investment Committee focusing on our Foreign Exchange strategy.  He travels the world giving presentations about the markets and the investment opportunities at JGAM.

Yesterday’s message Global Investment Portfolios Focus looked at JGAM’s medium risk international investment portfolio.

This portfolio has been updated and Thomas wrote:  On July 15 JGAM’s Investment Committee held its monthly meeting, deciding on how to invest our managed portfolios. All trades agreed at the meeting have now been carried out and therefore we can publish the changes we have made.

The overall asset allocation remained at a neutral position in all asset classes except for a small overweight position on cash in low and medium risk portfolios.

However Thomas added more. Here is information on what the future that we should all be thinking about.

The markets have been caught in a verbal fight between optimists and pessimists. The latter group most prominently presented by Princeton University Economist Paul Krugman, has warned policy makers that the world is heading for the worst depression since the thirties.

Mr. Krugman has on many occasions warned that the US is in danger of falling into a deflationary trap. He is advocating for a much more aggressive stimulus plan as unemployment remains stubbornly high, with little job creation at private companies.

The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke however, has been more optimistic and recently expressed that the US economy is on track to continue to expand in 2010 and 2011. World trade is up 20% year-on-year but is recovering from extremely low levels.

The optimists also argue, that the corporate sector should start investing soon and thereby improve the employment picture. When the corporate sector increases spending, nominal growth should pick up and help improve budget deficits.

According to The Economist magazine, the recent uncertainty may be down to a fundamental battle between bond investors who benefit from a debt deflation solution to the current crisis; and equity investors who gain more from a nominal growth solution to deficits. The jury is still out and with no clear indication of where we are heading, uncertainty will rule the market. We still believe that we are heading for a recovery and a growth scenario, but as long as the “war” between optimists and pessimists are raging in the media we maintain our neutral positions.

After four consecutive quarters with rising equity prices, Global equities had their first down quarter since March 2009. In the second quarter 2010, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) declined 11.2 % in local currencies, 12.7 % in US dollars and 3.5 % in euros.

So who will win out… the optimists or the pessimists?

Personally  I am prepared for either scenario.  In our last International Investing & Business Conference we looked at seven places to inest now that can prosper in either a positive or negative economic scenario.

#1:  Value Markets

#2: Multi Currency Spreads Increase Cash

#3: Emerging Markets

#4: Wellness

#5: Water Alternate Energy

#6: Truth & Cohesion

#7: Real Estate

Value holds a special place for investors and business people… local or global because value is another way of seeing distortions.  Distortions are vacuums and nature abhors a vacuum.  Imbalances will always correct themselves. To have success in investing or business… one simply has to spot good value.

Understanding value is the tricky part. 

This is why once a quarter we look at a major equity market valuation analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

For the last quarter to the end of June 2010, Keppler points out that  year to date, the MSCI World Index lost 7.1 % in local currencies and 9.8 % in US dollars. However, due to the 14.6 percent decline of the US dollar to 1.2249 versus the euro, the world equity benchmark index gained 5.6 % during the last six months, if performance is measured in euros.

Two markets advanced in the second quarter and sixteen declined. Denmark (+4.5 %), Sweden (+0.3 %) and Singapore (-0.1 %) performed best.

Japan (-14.8 %), Austria (-14.3 %) and Italy (-13.4 %) came in at the bottom.

Year-to-date, four markets are up and fourteen markets are down. The best performing markets in the first half of 2010 were Denmark (+21.7 %), Sweden (+8.8 %) and Belgium (+1.2 %). Spain (-21.4 %), Italy (-14.8 %) and Norway (-13.7 %) performed worst year-to-date.

Performance numbers are in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

The Top Value Model Portfolio currently contains the following six “buy” rated countries at equal weights:  Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Singapore and the United Kingdom. Keppler’s current ratings suggest that a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted returns.

Keppler’s neutral value markets are now: Australia, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Spain.

The low value (sell) markets are:  Belgium,  Canada, Denmark, Hong Kong,  Sweden, Switzerland and USA.

Keppler also added:  As the chart below indicates, our implicit three-to-five-year projection for the average annual gain of the Equally-Weighted World Index now stands at 14.3 % p.a., up from 11.9 % three months ago.  The two main reasons for this increase are (1) the Index dropped by 9 % during the second quarter and (2) fundamentals have improved: Earnings are up 16.6 % — the larger part of the increase coming from disappearing write-offs — and dividends grew by 4.1 %. In addition, the low interest rate environment makes stocks look attractive.

keppler-value-equity-market-analysis

Keppler’s implicit three-to-five- year projection provides some profound clues about how to invest and conduct business ahead.

His statistics suggest to me that the economy and markets are still going to grow.  The pessimists… according to my interpretation of these numbers… lose.

This is not the only indicator I track that suggests positive days ahead… not immediately… but over the next three to five years.

From now until October offers a special micro window of opportunity…. maybe one of two before 2002… when the next 15 to 17 year bull cycle will begin.

Right now seasonality is dragging markets down until around November.  Perhaps we’ll see one more good bear pull April to November 2011.  Then the recovery will begin in earnest. From now until then, history suggests times will be bleakest… a great time to find good value.

Thomas Fischer also mentioned the beauty of Denmark’s summer and wrote:

Summer has arrived in Denmark and we are basking in glorious sunshine. We hope the weather will “perform” for the next few months and thus create a warm background for our August Copenhagen seminar.

We have a range of world class speakers and should have some really exciting presentations. We will furthermore have excursions allowing you to get a closer look at our beautiful city. We will conclude the seminar Saturday evening with a gala dinner and opera arias performed by some of the best Danish opera singers from The Royal Danish Opera. We hope you will take this opportunity to come to Copenhagen and experience some renowned Danish “hygge”/coziness. You can see the whole program and a short video at the below link at http://jgam.com/copenhagen-seminar-2010

When we forwarded the invitation in April the price was approx. $2,050 per person in a double room, but since then the USD has strengthened against the Danish Kroner and the price today is approx. $1,700. The price includes accommodation including breakfast at the Copenhagen Marriott Hotel just voted the best hotel in Denmark, reception at our offices, seminar fee, excursions, lunches and a gala dinner with entertainment and dancing.

Danes have been voted the happiest people in the world and now we also have the best restaurant in the World. The restaurant is called NOMA which is a concatenation of the two Nordic names Nordisk (Nordic) and mad (food). The chef, Rene Redzepi, uses only Scandinavian ingredients and how about this for a starter: crunchy baby carrots served with edible “soil” made from malt, hazelnuts and beer, with a cream herb emulsion beneath.

Our slogan “Global investments with a personal touch” is not just a slogan we really enjoy any opportunity to meet with our clients and friends. We sincerely hope that you will join us in August in Wonderful Copenhagen.

See details on how to join Merri and me at Jyske’s bi annual Copenhagen seminar here Global Wealth Management Seminar.

Merri and I walk  the waterfront every day when we are in Copenhagen.  We love…

investment-course

the sights, the…

investment-course

cafes and…

investment-course

open air.

Merri and I hope to meet you in Denmark in August!

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

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Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Emerging Market Value Update


Here is an emerging market value update.

Yesterday’s message looked at the importance of value in major markets and reviewed the six best value markets now.

Value is the harmonious aspect of existence that wishes to fill every void.  Value is the ecstasy that harmonizes away the agony of imbalance.

This is why once a quarter we look at a major equity market value analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset management here.

Keppler’s latest analysis shows that in the first quarter of 2010 Emerging Markets recorded their fifth consecutive quarterly gain. The
MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index (December 1988 = 100) gained 2.4 % in US dollars and 8.6 % in euros. The last time the index traded at these levels was in mid 2008. Over the last  12 (15) months, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 81.1 % (82.8 %) in US dollars and 77.7 % (87.8 %) in euros.

The euro, which stood at 1.3901 versus the U.S. dollar at year-end 2008, at 1.4348 at the end of 2009 and at
1.3531 at the end of March 2010, lost 2.7 % versus the dollar over the last 15 months and 5.7 % year-to-date.

Of the three regional indices, Asia gained 1.3 %, Europe Middle East and Africa (EMEA) advanced 6.2 % and
Latin America returned 1.6 % during the first quarter. Over the last 15 months, the respective total returns were
75.9 % for Asia, 78.1 % for EMEA and 107.1 % for Latin America. Performance numbers are in US dollars unless
mentioned otherwise.

Eighteen markets advanced and four markets declined in the first quarter.

Thailand (+13.2 %), Hungary (+12.6 %) and Egypt (+11.9 %) performed best year-to-date.

Taiwan (-3.8 %), China (-1.6 %) and the Czech Republic (-0.2 %) came in last.

Over the last fifteen months, all twenty-two markets covered here had positive total returns, even though Morocco only managed to eke out a 1 % gain during that period; fourteen markets had double-digit returns and seven markets yielded more than 100 percent.

There are nine top value (“buy”) emerging markets: Brazil, the Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey.

According to Keppler’s performance ratings, these markets offer the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted returns.

Neutral value emerging markets are: China, Colombia, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Philippines, South Africa.

Poor value markets are:  Chile, India, Indonesia and Korea.

See more on value on Ecuador here.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Noise in Value Equity Markets


Value in equity markets cuts through the noise.

See below the current best value equity markets  and why the Dow’s recent drop below 10,000 was no surprise.

Merri and I do our best to avoid pollution… in our food… water and air.

Plus we try to stay away from noise and light pollution.

This is not easy in today’s crowded, artificial and noisy world.

Avoiding noise pollution is especially hard when we travel a lot.  For example at our main gateway airport Atlanta Hartsfield  we are often subjected to three or four TV stations and/or announcements all at the same time.  I do not know about you but this throws us into a state of utter confusion!  Some would call it becoming a stumbling fool.  I would have to agree but there is actually a scientific word for this noise agitation. The phenomenon is called “limited channel capacity.”  When the mind has to process more than six or seven things at once it loses its ability to discriminate at all.

So when flying… on the plane and in the airport we wear either ear plugs or Bose noise reducing headphones (though I wonder about the electro magnetic pollution from the headphones).

Our goal is to replace the noise with Baroque music… because the wrong kinds of noise anywhere can create stress.

Most of existence can be looked at in terms of frequency. Some frequencies are harmonious and balancing. Some clash and create imbalance.

A lot of music played today has the goal of imbalancing the listener.

The noise coming off stock markets can throw us off kilter as well.

We follow many types of frequencies and have been looking how frequencies affect US stock market shifts for years.

We report on these various market frequencies often so we were not surprised after our May 2010 stock market warnings to see the Dow quickly drop below 10,000… again.

This month, this site provided numerous warnings about various market frequencies that have all come together to put downwards pressure on US stock prices.  This five day chart of the Dow from www.finance.yahoo.com shows how accurate those warnings were.

may-2010-dow-chart

If these waves represented sound.  The result? Cacophony and confusion.

We are also not surprised at the short term good news like yesterday morning’s market opening report in the New York Times.

Breaking News Alert The New York Times Thu, May 27, 2010 — 9:50 AM ET – U.S. Stocks Open Higher After Gains in Europe; S.& P. 500 Jumps Nearly 2% in First Minutes Shares on Wall Street quickly jumped at the open on Thursday, mostly on assurances by Chinese authorities that Europe would remain an important market for investment, and despite new economic data that was somewhat disappointing.

Expect the market to bounce up and down. This volatility is part of an extremely rude noise.

Yet if you see the entire score… as evidenced in this one month chart of the Dow from www.finance.yahoo.com you can see… may-2010-dow-chart

the tone is… down.

Many factors have suggested that the Dow is headed and it has been…. headed down.

Ignore the noise!

Enjoy a more powerful and harmonious economic  symphony instead.  Tune up your financial instruments with value.

Value is the harmonious aspect of existence that wishes to fill every void.  Value is the ecstasy that harmonizes away the agony of imbalance.

This is why once a quarter we look at a major equity market value analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset management here.

Keppler points out that this spring global major equity markets continued their uptrend for a fourth consecutive quarter. In the first quarter 2010, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) gained 4.7 % in local currencies, 3.2 % in US dollars and 9.5 % in euros.

Over the last twelve (fifteen) months, the total returns of the MSCI World Index were 46.3 % (31.6 %) in local currencies, 52.4 % (34.2 %) in US dollars and 49.5 % (37.9 %) in euros.

The euro declined 5.7 % to 1.3531 (USD/EUR) in the first quarter. Over the last 15 months, the euro has lost 2.7 % versus the US dollar.

Fourteen markets advanced in the first quarter and four declined.

Denmark (+16.4 %), Japan (+8.6 %) and Sweden (+8.4 %) performed best.

This year’s worst performing markets were Spain (-10.2 %), Norway (-3.8 %), Italy and Singapore (both down 1.7 %).

Over the last fifteen months, all major markets covered by Keppler achieved double digit gains. Singapore (+66.7 %), Hong Kong (+64.4 %) and Sweden (+60.7 %) fared best.

Japan (+18.5 %), Italy (+20.6 %) and Spain (+24.9 %) came in last.

The Top Value Model Portfolio that follows Keppler’s analysis currently contains the following six “buy” rated countries at equal weights: Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

Keppler’s current ratings suggest that a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted returns.

Keppler added: What a difference a year makes! In last year’s Spring edition of the Major Markets Country Selection, I wrote:  “Never in the last 20 years have our implicit 3 to 5 year return projections been as high as they are now.” I finished with the sentence “Benjamin Graham’s margin of safety indicates that much better times may lie ahead for global equity investors”. Now, one year later, we have witnessed four successive positive quarters and one of the best 12-month performances of global equities ever.

As a consequence, our current 3 to 5 year total return projections for the equally-weighted World Index have dropped more than in half from 32.7 % p.a. last year to 14.7 % p.a. as of the end of March 2010.

major-equity-market-analysis

Keppler looks at Graham’s margin off safety analysis often. This is a frequency analysis that has great meaning because it is based on solid values that in the long run an investor should expect.  Whenever the red line is below the gray line, there is good global value.   There is less that have the value now  than a year ago.   The next three to five years offer a return… but we are closing in on the danger zone so speculators must beware.

Keppler’s neutral value markets are now: Australia, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Spain and Sweden.

The low value (sell) markets are:  Belgium,  Canada, Denmark, Hong Kong,  Switzerland and USA.

Since Keppler mentions “Benjamin Graham’s margin of safety let me add a note about Benjamin Graham’s book  The Intelligent Investor.

This is why most investors in equities should be investors not speculators. The hallmark of Graham’s philosophy is not profit maximization but loss minimization. In this respect, The Intelligent Investor is a book for true investors, not speculators or day traders. He provides, “in a form suitable for the laymen, guidance in adoption and execution of an investment policy”. This policy is inherently for the longer term and requires a commitment of effort. Where the speculator follows market trends, the investor uses discipline, research, and his analytical ability to make unpopular but sound investments in bargains relative to current asset value. Graham coaches the investor to develop a rational plan for buying stocks and bonds, and he argues that this plan must be a bulwark against emotional behavior that will always be tempting during abrupt bull and bear markets.

Market trends… bull and bear markets are noise.

During good times the noise leads to bad value. This is when most speculators incorrectly buy more.  Bad times… like now, create good value as they scare away speculators and leave the best opportunity for those who seek value and ignore the noise.

There is always value… in bad times and good and in all markets…. but look hardest for good value shares in Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Singapore and the United Kingdom now.

Learn how to get good value Ecuador airfares here.

Join us in North Carolina and learn more about value markets.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Leverage Risk


We have looked at leverage multi currency investing in recent messages so I wanted to share my reply to this reader’s question.

Thanks for the info Gary. I would love to attend one of your workshops and would love to learn how to make more dollars. I used to trade in the stock market with put and call options on stocks and currency and lost a lot of money. This has left me  gun shy about “investing”.

Any suggestions of where to start? Regards,

Here is my reply.

We just completed a three day course with Jyske Global Asset Management (JGAM) showing why 80% to 90% of the people who trade futures and options lose all their money.

Those who trade options and/or futures contracts or highly leverage investments are not investing.  They are in the business of speculating.

Here are three simple facts that can help understand the difference between investing and speculating.

The first fact is that really safe investments earn about 3%.

This fact was confirmed by Alan Greenspan in his excellent book, “Age of Turbulence” when he wrote: “A major aspect of human nature-the level of human intelligence-has a great deal to do with how successful we are in gaining the sustenance for survival. As I point out at the end of this book, in economies with cutting-edge technologies, people, on average, seem unable to increase their output per hour at better than 3% percent a year over a protracted period. That is apparently the maximum rate at which human innovation can move standards of living forward. We are apparently not smarter to do better.”

That’s a huge fact to understand about investing.

Overall we should expect the global economy to grow at about 3%.

This gives us a baseline for how much an investment should grow.

If an economy rises faster than 3%, it is distorted. During early stages of excessive growth, investors will be attracted. Shares will rise faster.

If the economy remains robust, shares become overbought. Then watch out! A correction will come.

This leads us to the next fact which is “all investments have risk”.

Rather than wasting time trying to avoid risk…which cannot be done, investors should look at three risk elements instead.

#1: How much risk is there in any particular investment?

#2: What perceptions do the market have of the risk?

#3: What risk premium is due?

Bank accounts and government bonds, for example, are perceived as the safest investments (especially if government guaranteed). A look at their long term history shows that they pay about 3%. So if a bank account or government bond pays less…in the long term it’s bad. If it pays more…that’s better. Yet the idea is that bank accounts will not really make money. They will just keep up with growth…at 3%.

To get real growth requires taking risk. If an investment appears to be less safe it will pay more than 3%. This is called a risk premium.

Bonds pay more than bank accounts because they are perceived to be less safe.

Stocks pay more than bonds because they are perceived even riskier.

Over the long run, bonds issued in countries and currencies perceived to be stable pay 5% to 7%.

Stocks in major countries should pay 7% to 10% annual return in the stock market as a function of global growth, long term earnings growth plus risk premium (above bank accounts and bonds).

Emerging market stocks pay more than major market stocks. Emerging market bonds pay more than major markets bonds.

To attain higher growth than 7 to 10% investors must either increase risk, trust luck or spot distortions.

Investments that are leveraged offer even more profit potential but only at equal increased downside risk.

Finally we come to the third fact. Periods of high performance are followed by times of poor performance… and vice versa.

In the times of global panic that we have seen in recent years, all markets tend to drop.

This is good because the market is almost always wrong. Most investors always try to avoid risk. Most investors dump their wealth into investments that are perceived to be safe. This creates excessive demand and lowers value and actually makes the perception wrong.

Knowing this helps wise investors spot trends created by distortions so they can get higher paying investments without extra risk.

Recently we have looked at several reasons why the recent period of high performance investors have enjoyed in the US equity market may be followed by low performance.

One needs to beware of seasonality.

One needs to beware of the downwards pressure on equities in the upcoming economic cycle.

So if you are an investor and are tempted by the upswing in equity markets to become a speculator… beware.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.22 AM

Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Forcing a Currency Weakness


Yesterday’s message looked at how US debt and deficit spending is forcing a weakness in the US dollar’s strength.

ecuador-ocean-view

In  a moment we’ll see how this has the potential to more than double investment with ownership of this view.

First let’s see why the rumor floating around about capital controls on overseas bank accounts is not true.

Government debt and the continual government overspending  are problems globally. This runaway expenditure creates uncertainty in the global economy.

However there is one economic fact that we can see… the solution.    Most governments will need some combination of tax increases and spending cuts. We can expect taxes to go up.

That is the legacy of an era of abusive government spending led by the USA’s trillion-dollar deficits. Erasing them will be one of the great political issues of the coming decade.

Expect government programs everywhere to become less generous and to increase their tax enforcement.

We can see this in Greece right now. For example, the retirement age is being raised from 58 to 65.  Quite a jump… but reasonable… unless you are a 57 year old Greek who has been expecting to retire.

We can see other European governments preparing.

An excerpt from a recent Reuters article, “European states keep Swiss bank secrecy under siege” by Jason Rhodes and Ben Berkowitz
article shows how:  European states lined up behind German Chancellor Angela Merkel to expose tax cheats in a combined assault on the Swiss banking secrecy laws that help protect them.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble sent shivers through the large Swiss private banking industry this week when he said Berlin was prepared to pay for stolen data belonging to potential tax cheats at a Swiss bank, raising the bar in the fight against tax evasion.

Now, the Dutch, Belgian and Austrian governments have also flagged interest in obtaining a copy of a compact disc with tax-sensitive data that Berlin may soon buy from an informant.

Swiss Finance Minister Hans-Rudolf Merz said on Wednesday the Swiss would not help Germany or others hunt tax cheats on the basis of stolen Swiss bank data, but tried to defuse the escalating row by saying Berne would not retaliate.
“It is obvious that such a theft is a criminal act,” Merz said. “Switzerland should therefore not offer administrative (tax) assistance in such cases either now or in future.”

But he added that Switzerland would continue to engage in talks aimed at signing a new treaty with Germany.

Nearly $6 trillion of wealth is managed in Switzerland, with potentially almost one-third of it undeclared, analysts have said. Bankers fear the latest set of attacks could undermine the country’s entire private banking model.

Several European governments have tried to lure back some of the money hidden in tax havens by launching tax amnesties.

Wealthy Dutch savers last year declared 2.15 billion euros ($3.01 billion) under a penalty-free amnesty, with a third of the declared accounts hidden in Switzerland.

Britain has also targeted wealthy residents with hidden offshore money via a so-called voluntary disclosure program.

The most successful amnesty so far has been a Italian one, which recouped nearly 100 billion euros in three months, most of it hidden in the Italian-speaking Swiss canton of Ticino.

France and Germany, on the other hand, have not launched amnesties but have accepted stolen bank data from informants.

We can see the US  preparing to increase tax enforcement.

One of the recent economic stimulus packages, Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act, contains a section that tightens the ability of the IRS to see overseas assets.  Some writers misunderstood and thought this created capital controls that could even hinder buying real estate abroad.

I started receiving notes like this from readers:

Gary, Is this for real?  If so, how will this affect international real estate purchases? Look at what this newsletter has written!

“Americans’ ability to move their money across international borders may become restricted thanks to new legislation passed last week. Buried within Obama’s recent $17.5 billion “H.I.R.E.” Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act (H.R. 2487) is a new U.S. Federal restriction on any foreign holdings which exceed the meager amount of $50,000 and leaves the door open for a new 30% transaction or ‘holdings’ tax to be enforced by the IRS. The new law amounts to an unprecedented extension of the US Government into the global sphere.”

Here is the reply I have been sending:

We are researching this now but I believe,  as is often the case, some people make a mountain out of a molehill.

In this instance the mountain was formed over a decade ago.   A law has been in place for years requiring overseas banks to collect data on US shareholders and submitting that data to IRS and collect 30% withholding of capital under certain circumstances.

This is why most overseas banks will not accept accounts for US investors.

Every bank, if they deal in US dollars is vulnerable in New York. If a bank accepts a US investor and breaks the law the US simply attacks their US assets and or arrests their employees when they enter the US.

For years overseas banks have been required to issue W9s for US clients.

See articles in our archives that were written about this law clear back in 2001 and 2002 when we accurately predicted what would happen to banking for Americans abroad at http://www.garyascott.com/2002/01/18/789.html and http://www.garyascott.com/2001/01/03/1514.html and http://www.garyascott.com/2001/12/16/763.html and http://www.garyascott.com/2001/02/16/164.html

US legislation as for bank privacy is concerned has been all wrapped up for years.  Any changes now are just frosting on the cake.  Very few major banks will offer a US resident a bank account. Many banks have made all their US customers, even those who are resident abroad close their accounts.

Any new legislation now is just frosting on the cake and this is slightly confusing to me as I cannot see what this ads to existing legislation except a bot fo clarification of the old existing laws.  The new regs appear to be aimed at transparency… not control of asset held abroad.

We have tax attorneys researching this now and here he has said so far.

Gary: I have only the first read also.  Looks like a stronger language enforcement of what is already there.  The 30% withholding, my first take, is on US investments, US stocks and the like.

“I am waiting for some legal publications to state more accurately than the press.   The new statutes do want offshore banks to disclose US customers.  I cannot pick up on how that is to be enforced, especially banks with no US connections.  So, still waiting for more info but this is definitely not capital controls.  Total transparency of what and where your assets are is what they always have been and remain after.”

Now it appears that others who have written about this new regulation are recanting. Several readers have shared this note they received:

Capital Controls Revisited

Yesterday we ran a story published over that made the claim that capital controls are now here and fully enforced by the law. After further review, however, it appears that claim is inaccurate. The HIRE act is not about capital controls, it’s really about enforcing IRS rules. One can still legally have money in offshore accounts as long as the financial institution and the individual report it to the IRS.

The fact is that the HIRE act now signed into law makes it very costly for financial institutions not to report accounts and transactions to the IRS, and it gives the U.S. authorities ways to better enforce the requirements for U.S. citizens to report all bank and financial accounts they hold outside of the U.S. And financial institutions that do not cooperate will now see increased pressures from the U.S. government.

The law also closes a loophole that existed when a country’s banking secrecy laws (think Switzerland) did not permit foreign institutions
to turn in info about U.S. citizens to the U.S. government; it now requires that these financial institutions close these accounts or
face penalties from the U.S. government.

Consequences of this last round of tightening are:

1) More foreign financial institutions will decide to stop doing business with U.S. citizens and businesses. And it will become increasingly more difficult for Americans to open foreign bank and brokerage accounts.

2) Once the U.S. government actually decides to implement capital controls, it will have already collected all the information needed to possibly force repatriation of capital held by U.S. citizens in foreign financial accounts  (this could be the next step but it would be much harder to implement).

So, let’s recap. Capital controls are in fact not yet here, but the pressure is on and the HIRE act is another step to restrict the economic freedom of Americans.

I agree!  It will be harder now for Americans to bank abroad.

Government debt and the continual government overspending are problems globally. This runaway expenditure will lead to tax increases, spending cuts and greater tax enforcement.  Prepare for this now!

This is why I am updating my report “Borrow Low – Deposit High”.  Our emailed Borrow Low-Deposit High report can help you learn how to expand your profits with up to 400% loans just as our reports have helped thousands of readers do over the past twenty years.

You can learn why this profit is available in my new updated “Borrow Low-Deposit High–How to Use the Multi Currency Investment Sandwich” emailed report. This email report explains everything you need to know about how to create and invest in the Multi Currency Investment Sandwich.  (See details below.)

Tens of thousands of readers have purchased this report, and several updates, since it was first published in the 1980s. You however can have the most up to date edition at a $30 savings.

I am updating Borrow Low-Deposit High now. When the new update is complete it will be offered at $79.

This report will include ideas on were to invest in China and Russia (both neighbors of Japan)  now.

You do not have to wait and miss this yen opportunity, buy our report “Borrow Low-Deposit High” for $49.  I will email it to you immediately… plus when the new update is complete, I’ll email that to you also… FREE.

The report helps you see why and where to invest and learn why and how currencies and interest rates rise and or fall.

Finally, as always you are protected by our 30 day completely satisfied or your money back guarantee.

Borrow Low Deposit High – How to Use the Multi Currency Investment Sandwich… click here to get this emailed report for only $49.

This is also why we maintain close contact with Jyske Bank, Denmark’s second largest bank. Denmark is rated by Standard & Poor’s as the safest country in the world to bank in. Jyske Bank is the only bank we know that specializes in the Borrow Low Deposit High strategy. Jyske Bank is also one of the leading currency traders in the world. Unlike most banks (that trade only eight hours a day) Jyske maintains a 24 hour trading service. They have been our bank for over twenty years and help us stay informed about global equity markets, plus global currency parity and interest rate trends so we can learn from portfolios that are real time. What you learn from is actually happening as our service unfolds.

More importantly Jyske Bank  has created an entire subsidiary that provides a stable and safe institution for US investors  who wish to invest globally including a Borrow Low-Deposit High strategy.

Gary

Save $100 more. There is another important benefit you gain when you order my emailed report “Borrow Low-Deposit High”.  You can save $100 at the next Jyske seminar where I review the new H.I.R.E. overseas banking regulations.

Share strategies with me in California and Save.

I speak at the Jyske Global Asset Management’s April 30 – May 2 Foreign Exchange Investment Seminar in Laguna Beach, California.

The normal seminar fee is$499 or $750 for two.

However Jyske is providing the same discount to our premium subscribers (including those who order Borrow Low – Deposit High) as to their clients… $399 single and $599 for a couple.  You save $100…even though the emailed report “Borrow Low Deposit High” is only $49.

Order “Borrow Low-Deposit High – How to Use the Multi Currency Investment Sandwich”… click here to get this emailed report for only $49. Save $100 on JGAM’s California seminar.

See more on the JGAM California seminar here.

If you have questions about Jyske’s seminars contact Thomas Fischer of JGAM at fischer@jgam.com

Join us in North Carolina this June to learn more about how to bank abroad. June 24-27 International Investing and Business North Carolina

Gary

See how to own the view above with these sunsets.

ecuador-ocean-view

See how one person can earn $540,000 or more on an Ecuador beach view investment now.

Learn how to gain earning freedom with Ecuador exports at our Ecuador Export Expedition Tour ($499 or couple $749)

Apr. 17-18   Imbabura Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Apr. 20-21  Coastal Mid Coast Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Apr. 23-24  Quito & Mindo Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)

April 26-27 Cuenca Real Estate Tour

May 9-12       Super Thinking + Spanish Course, Cotacachi Ecuador

May  13-14    Ecuador Shamanic Minga

May  16-17    Imbabura Real Estate Tour

May  19-20    Coastal Real Estate Tour

May  22-23    Quito Real Estate Tour

May  25-26    Cuenca Real Estate Tour

You enjoy discounts by attending multiple seminars and tours.

Here are our multi tour adventure discounts.

Two Pack… 2 seminar courses & tours $998 Couple  $1,349 Save $149 on couple

Three Pack… 3 seminar courses & tours   $1399 Couple  $1,899 Save $98 single or $348 on a couple or more

Four Pack… 4 seminar courses & tours   $1,699 Couple $2,299 Save $98 single or $697 on a couple or more

Five Pack… 5 seminar courses & tours  $1,999 Couple $2,699 Save $496 single or $1,046 on a couple or more

Six Pack… 6 seminars courses & tours  $2,199 Couple $3,099 Save $795 single or $1,395 on a couple or more

Here is the balance of our 2010 schedule.

June 24-27 International Investing and Business North Carolina

June 28-29    Ecuador Travel & Andes

June 30-Jul 1 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

2010 Summer Schedule

July 3-4      Coastal Real Estate Tour
July 6-7      Quito Real Estate Tour
July 9-10     Cuenca Real Estate Tour

Sept.   3-6   Ecuador Export Tour
Sept.   8-9   Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 11-12   Coastal Real Estate Tour
Sept. 14-15   Cuenca Real Estate Tour
Sept. 17-18   Ecuador Shamanic Mingo

Oct.    7     Quantum Wealth North Carolina
Oct.   8-10   International Investing & Business North Carolina
Oct.   11-12  Travel to Quito and Andean Tour
Oct.  13-14   Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Oct.  16-17   Coastal Real Estate Tour
Oct.  19-20   Quito Real Estate Tour
Oct. 22-23    Cuenca Real Estate Tour

Nov.    4-7   Super Thinking + Spanish Course Florida
Nov.    8-9   Travel to Quito and Andean Tour
Nov. 10-11    Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 13-14    Coastal Real Estate Tour
Nov. 16-17    Quito Real Estate
Nov. 19-20    Cuenca Real Estate Tour

Dec.   3-5    Ecuador Shamanic Mingo
Dec.   7-8    Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Dec.  10-11   Coastal Real Estate Tour
Dec. 13-14    Quito Real Estate Tour
Dec. 16-17    Cuenca Real Estate Tour

Read European states keep Swiss bank secrecy under siege

Borrow Low Despoit High in Japan


This may once again be the time to borrow low in Japan to invest high elsewhere.

See how this five year chart from www.finance.yahoo.com may mean money in the bank… a fortune actually.

Multi Currency Chart

Excerpts from a recent BBC article entitled “Japan’s economic growth rate revised down” helps explain why a new fortune may be in the making with the Japanese yen…

Here is the excerpt:  Japan’s economy grew by less than first estimated in the final quarter of 2009, revised figures have shown.  The Cabinet Office said the economy expanded by 0.9% between October and December of last year, down from its initial estimate of 1.1%.\

On an annualised basis, economic growth was 3.8% in the quarter, down from the initial estimate of 4.6%.

The downward revision in economic growth is likely to increase pressure on the Bank of Japan to ease monetary policy.

However, with interest rates already down to 0.1%, it does not have much room to move. This is bad for an economy as it tends to make consumers and businesses delay major purchases in the expectation that prices will fall further in the future.

A slowing Japanese economy is just one reason why it may now make sense to borrow Japanese yen to invest elsewhere.  Borrowing low and depositing high is called the Multi Currency Sandwich and this investing technique has been a phenomenal way to invest for over 20 years.

Since the end of the US dollar’s link to gold the fluctuations between currencies have created some of the world’s greatest (such as George Soros’) fortunes.

multi-currency-seminar

See below why at our International Investing and Business Seminars we have delegates come to our house for afternoon tea or lunch.  Here I am arriving at our house with Don Childs (our US Spanish instructor) and delegates during our last Mt. Dora seminar.

This personal touch in part is because one great, very exciting Multi Currency Sandwich that lasted nearly two decades has been to borrow Japanese yen at a very low interest rate and reinvest the loan in higher yielding currencies.

Back at the end of 1988, the yen hit dizzy heights in the 120 Yen per U.S Dollar range. Yen interest rates dropped into the low 4% range. This created a classic sandwich opportunity. The yen was a strong currency at an all time high with a low interest rate. This is the formula that Multi Currency investment sandwich investors always looks for.

Now, twenty years later the yen is again a strong currency and the interest rate has fallen as low as 1.375%!

I have been writing and publishing information about international investing for nearly forty years (since May 1968 to be exact). Fortunately I stumbled across and wrote about the Borrow Low-Deposit High Strategy at an early stage so the original readers of my report “Borrow Low Deposit High–How to Use the Multi Currency Investment Sandwich” have been able to borrow yen at low rates and redeposit the loans in other currencies at much higher rates (without forex loss) for over 20 years!

This is not a fast trading technique and in fact most positions are aimed with a five year horizon…pretty sleepy compared to people who trade currencies (an entirely different approach). Yet for most of us, slow and sleepy mean SAFE! However the Borrow Low Deposit High tactic can be really profitable.

How sleepy and safe?

Imagine this. Over the past 20 years, the cost of a Japanese yen loan has averaged about 2%. The US dollar interest rate has averaged 4% over this same period.  If one invested $100,000 in safe US dollar bonds or CDS held in huge, safe banks for this period and used this loan as collateral to borrow $400,000 worth of yen to reinvest in safe US dollar CDs or bonds, they have earned an average $12,000 a year and turned a safe 4% investment into a safe 12% investment. They added an extra $144,000 of income (on a $100,000 investment) over the 20 years!

Investing for 20 years in US dollar bonds or CDs is about as sleepy and safe as one can get.

Yet many smart Multi Currency Investment Sandwich investors have done much, much better.

How much better?

Take for example one year’s review of three Borrow Low Deposit High model portfolios we created and tracked.

In 2007 these portfolios rose:

Dollar Short +48.19%
Emerging Market +122.62%
Green 266.30%

Is this enough better?

Let me hasten to add that this type of performance is not guaranteed.   Do not ignore the fact that as sleepy and safe as Borrow Low-Deposit High can be that there can also be risks.  Had we invested in these same portfolios above in 2008, they would have lost a lot of money. Here is how they performed in a bad year.

Dollar Short Portfolio -35.21%
Green Portfolio -56.08%
Emerging Market -73.79%

The price for extra performance in leverage is added volatility and risk.

Yet we saw in yesterday’s message that one portfolio in 2009 used Borrow Low tactics to invest mainly in bonds and earned 66% profit in just nine months!

Tracking these portfolios for many years has taught us some valuable lessons.

For example catch areas of likely growth where a borrowed currency is hedged to the invested currency.

For example we watched Eastern European markets enjoy great growth at a time when the Swiss franc was loosely linked to the Eastern European currencies.

In that year, the Jyske Invest Eastern European Equity Fund rose from $51,000 to $76,138, a return of nearly 50%.

Had you leveraged this loan two times with a 2.75% Swiss franc loan, the return on a $50,000 investment would have been over $225,000 in one year.

The Czech koruna was also loosely linked to the other Eastern European currencies.

The Jyske Fund above performed really well over five years, up from 110 euro to 500 euro since 2001. That was an increase of 3.54 times. If you had invested $100,000 and borrowed $200,000 more in Czech koruna at 3.75% and invested in this fund for the past five years the initial $100,000 would now be worth over a million dollars! Your loan costs would be $37,500. Your profit on $100,000 after interest would be $1,024,500 on $100,000 of cash invested.

Plus because of the loose link, your currency risk would have been reduced. How much better can we ask than that?

Now two golden Borrow Low Deposit High opportunities may be on the horizon.  Japanese yen loans invested in China and Swiss franc loans invested in Russia.

Multi Currency Chart

Japanese yen loans have been one of my favorite money making vehicles for over 20 years. I first borrowed yen at 111 around 1988.  Then  the yen strengthened (bad news for a borrower) to 79!    My paper losses looked formidable, yet I held on and watched the yen tumble all the way to 146 yen per dollar (shown in chart above) by 2002.  I exited and my forex profits were huge… plus I had been earning the positive carry (difference between the loan cost and investment return) for all the years I held the loan.

Please let me repeat. The formula that Multi Currency investment sandwich investors always considers is a strong currency at an all time high with a low interest rate.

The yen is almost there… too strong versus the US dollar in the perfect position to borrow!  Plus because the Chinese yuan is likely to rise versus the US dollar, the yuan is likely to rise versus the yen as well… which makes the idea of investments in China financed with yen loans especially strong now.

However before you make these investments, please let me remind you of several important lessons about risk we have learned in the past two decades of making and tracking Multi Currency Sandwich portfolios.  The longer you can hold a position the less likely you are to lose.

One lesson for example is that many portfolios that lost short term became profitable if held for the year. The lesson is that when a properly constructed portfolio is leveraged and diversified, it can be safe and profitable regardless of the underlying idea, if an investor sticks to his beliefs and does not panic during short term drops.

We also learned that past performance is no guarantee of future profits. The profitability of the portfolios changed dramatically based on varying entry and exit points! This reminded us that such high performance may not materialize for all and that we must plan our profit and loss potential.

These and other important lessons, plus the upcoming Japanese yen potential are why I am updating my report Borrow Low Deposit High. This report teaches how to Borrow Low & Deposit High and helps you learn the risk as well as the potential rewards.

This is also why we maintain close contact with Jyske Bank, Denmark’s second largest bank. Denmark is rated by Standard & Poor’s as the safest country in the world to bank in. Jyske Bank is the only bank we know that specializes in the Borrow Low Deposit High strategy. Jyske Bank is also one of the leading currency traders in the world. Unlike most banks (that trade only eight hours a day) Jyske maintains a 24 hour trading service. They have been our bank for over twenty years and help us stay informed about global equity markets, plus global currency parity and interest rate trends so we can learn from portfolios that are real time. What you learn from is actually happening as our service unfolds.

More importantly Jyske Bank provides a stable and safe institution for those who wish to employee a Borrow Low-Deposit High strategy based on what they learn.

Our emailed Borrow Low-Deposit High report can help you learn how to expand your profits with up to 400% loans just as our reports have helped thousands of readers do over the past twenty years.

You can learn why this profit is available in my new updated “Borrow Low-Deposit High–How to Use the Multi Currency Investment Sandwich” emailed report. This email report explains everything you need to know about how to create and invest in the Multi Currency Investment Sandwich.  (See details below.)

Tens of thousands of readers have purchased this report, and several updates, since it was first published in the 1980s. You however can have the most up to date edition at a $30 savings.

I am updating Borrow Low-Deposit High now. When the new update is complete it will be offered at $79.

This report will include ideas on were to invest in China and Russia (both neighbors of Japan)  now.

Finding the right Chinese investment requires care.  Take the WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund (Trading symbol CYB) as an example. This fund seeks to achieve total returns reflective of both money market rates in China available to foreign investors and changes in value of the Chinese Yuan relative to the U.S. dollar.

The fund invests in very short-term, investment grade instruments, so has a very low yield. However its yield since inception is 2.26% so this fund might pay the cost of the loan.

However the ideal is to borrow low-invest high, not borrow low-invest low… so we’ll be looking at Chinese investments with higher yield potential in the report.

You do not have to wait and miss this yen opportunity, buy our report “Borrow Low-Deposit High” for $49.  I will email it to you immediately… plus when the new update is complete, I’ll email that to you also… FREE.

The report helps you see why and where to invest and learn why and how currencies and interest rates rise and or fall.

Finally, as always you are protected by our 30 day completely satisfied or your money back guarantee

Borrow Low Deposit High – How to Use the Multi Currency Investment Sandwich… click here to get this emailed report for only $49.

Gary

Save $100 more. There is another important benefit you gain when you order my emailed report “Borrow Low-Deposit High”.  You can save $100 at the next Jyske seminar where I review this tactic.

Share strategies with me in California and Save.

I speak at the Jyske Global Asset Management’s April 30 – May 2 Foreign Exchange Investment Seminar in Laguna Beach, California.

The normal seminar fee is$499 or $750 for two.

However Jyske is providing the same discount to our premium subscribers (including those who order Borrow Low – Deposit High) as to their clients… $399 single and $599 for a couple.  You save $100…even though the emailed report “Borrow Low Deposit High” is only $49.

Order “Borrow Low-Deposit High – How to Use the Multi Currency Investment Sandwich”… click here to get this emailed report for only $49. Save $100 on JGAM’s California seminar.

See more on the JGAM California seminar here.

If you have questions about Jyske’s seminars contact Thomas Fischer of JGAM at fischer@jgam.com

See other ways to fight inflation here.

Read the entire article Japan’s economic growth rate revised down

Selling Your US Property for Ecuador


Here a thought on selling your US property so you can buy real estate in Ecuador… or just to get your US place sold.

One of the most frequent notes I receive from people wanting to move to Ecuador… or move at all or receive debt is… “I’ll do it as soon as I sell my place.”

There are some great property deals in Ecuador.

For example these adobe homes are…

ecuador-cash

about 1,500 square feet. This is a shot Merri took last September of me with the builder Jorge Quilambaci. Here is the front yard of this house.

ecuador-cash

The have nice interesting designs and…

ecuador-cash

are roomy… but…

ecuador-cash

the asking price is only $85,000.

That house is probably finished now, yet many people who would like to buy it cannot… unless they sell their US or Canadian house.

Here is a tip that can help you sell your property:  In tough buyer markets, we have to be creative by spotting distortions.

Here is a true story of how I helped a developer take advantage of distortions during the 1970s economic crunch.

This developer was a Brooklyn Boomer, and at that time a young real estate developer who got into international fund raising to save his neck.

He was sharp, intelligent and successful and in the 1970s he stumbled onto an exciting real estate idea that was bringing him great profits. Manhattan real estate prices were rising strongly in the 70s. The boomer saw that young professionals his age (late 20’s and early 30’s) could no longer afford to live in the better parts of this exclusive island.

He knew they needed to be close to town for their profession, wanted lots of room to raise their families and liked living in a nice setting with good architectural design and all the conveniences of modern living.He filled these needs by converting warehouses in Brooklyn into attractive and spacious condominium living units. The idea worked very well. The warehouses were only short blocks from very nice residential parts of Brooklyn and were capable of providing many large living units. This man’s business prospered and soon he started an even bigger project and then another. He was doing really well.

Then the economy bombed the boomer.  He was more than fully committed, over borrowed and needed quick cash to keep his deal going. An oil shortage, a banking crash and really high interest rates were on the verge of shutting him down.  For real estate developers the 1970s recession was almost as bad as now.

The developer was caught in a bind having already borrowed as much as he could based upon his previous successes. His financing was all in short term construction loans that were coming due, and he had to refinance at higher and higher rates.

High interest rates hit him doubly. First, his construction loan rates ruined cash flow and ate potential profits. Even worse the high rates increased mortgage payments so young professionals could no longer qualify for mortgages. His bankers were edgy.

At this stage, he consulted me about raising money from Europeans to tide him through his cash crisis.

At his request, I flew to New York and rode with him to the apartments. They were beautiful, so attractively designed that they had been featured in an architectural magazine. “Just the kind of place Europeans love” was my thought, “but how do we get quick financing?”

Perhaps, I thought that it would be better to sell apartments to Europeans rather than ask for loans!

Owning houses is something Europeans readily understand. They have confidence in owning houses. Making loans and investing in equities are not so much their deals.

So we treated the apartments as the investment and placed small, classified ads in the Netherlands, England and Germany.

Here is why.  Interest rates on the dollar at that time were at all time highs. Plus the U.S. dollar parity was at an all time low versus the British pound, German mark and Dutch guilder. These Brooklyn condos, seemed really cheap, when converted into foreign currency!

We did not try to sell the condos by mail. The sole object of our first ads was to find Dutch, German and English investors who were interested enough in investing in New York, that they would come and look at the condos.

Our sales package was aimed at getting the investors to Brooklyn, not at selling the condos direct. We wanted centers of influence. The marketing package included a copy of the famous architectural magazine showing the condos as well as details about profit potential of the property and the really low price in European and British currency terms. We kept a clear message that we were offering an investment backed by property ownership and that we wanted to meet the buyers and let them see for themselves.

The American buyers who had been buying from the Brooklyn Bomber were buying homes. These Europeans were making an investment which was very different.

We designed a package so the Europeans could buy an apartment, and immediately lease it to an American buyer – with a lease option.

This helped the Americans who wanted a place to live but currently could not qualify for a mortgage. They could immediately move into the house of their dreams and buy it later when they had a larger income (or when interest rates fell).

The lease on the other hand created immediate income for the European investor and the lease option sales price locked in a capital gain for the European.

The Europeans loved this because they earned income now, appreciation later and the entire package was secured by the real estate itself.

This was a win – win deal all made possible by distortions of currency fluctuations. The weak U.S. dollar made this property seem really cheap to Europeans. Yet the weak dollar pushed up oil prices, and interest rates made the condos really expensive for Americans.

One more point can be gained from this Case Study. The developer’s goal was to sell as many apartments to European investors for cash as fast as he could while the distortion remained. Yet we also set up a limited partnership designed for small investors who could not afford to buy an entire apartment. The partnership took title to one condo at a time and sold units of ownership for as little as U.S. $5,000.

This allowed Europeans to own a part of condo and gave the developer investment packages to sell for all ranges of investors. He sold the apartments for $125,000 to $250,000 to single investors, but with his deal could offer a $5,000 investment.

By taking advantage of this distortion this Brooklyn developer did not bomb out!  This gave the Brooklyn Boomer a plan to salvage his tight position then, but also gave him much, much more. Once he had developed a group of real estate investors in Europe he had an entirely new source of financing for the future. As interest rates fell and the leasees began to exercise their options, his European investors saw profits and had extra cash. By developing good will with these investors he maintained a steady source of equity finance that allowed him to outgun other developers in the area.

This led the developer into an international business, with an overseas sales company. He learned how to use the Circle of 100. He paid this sales company generous commissions and built an asset protected cash reserve aboard.

This is a wonderful case where the solution to a short-term problem (that could have bankrupted the developer) created a reliable long-term source of finance, solved his current problem and remained so he could also use it in the future.

He gained a source of money in many currencies and often at competitive interest rates. This source of money was available in good times AND bad, when other developers could not get money at all!

He gained an overseas company with 50% non-U.S. owners so he reduced U.S. tax liability. The assets in this overseas company were also protected from lawsuits and litigation in the U.S.

Distortions in currencies and interest rates around the world can bring an infusion of cash, buyers, different rates of interest, opportunities to reduce tax, eliminate liability. The process can also be a great deal of fun, if you learn how to understand markets abroad and adapt your plans to match the market!

Until then may all you business be good.

Gary

Join us in Ecuador or Florida or Both. See the best Ecuador property for you.  Find the best real estate offers.  Know more of Ecuador. To help you experience a bigger adventure in this wonderful nation, to broaden your horizons, to expand your awareness of all Ecuador offers, we are providing deep discounts in 2010 for those who sign up for multiple tours.

Join us at our upcoming courses and tours.

Join us in 2010. See our winter Ecuador real estate tours below.

Jan.   8-11     Ecuador Export Tour $499 Couple  $749

Jan. 13-14     Imbabura Real Estate Tour   $499 Couple $749
Jan. 15-18     Coastal Real Estate Tour $499 Couple $749
Jan. 19-20    Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour  $499 Couple $749
Jan. 21-23    Cuenca Real Estate Tour  $499 Couple $749

Join us in February or March.

Feb. 11-14   Quantum Wealth Florida -International Investing & Internet Business, Mt. Dora, Florida ($749) Couple $999

Feb. 15-16   Travel to and visit Quito
Feb  17         Travel to Manta
Feb. 18-19   Coastal Real Estate Tour   $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Feb. 20        Travel to Cotacachi
Feb. 21-22   Imbabura Real Estate Tour  $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Feb. 23-24  Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Feb. 26-27  Cuenca Real Estate Tour  $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.

Mar. 11-14     Super Thinking + Spanish Course, Mt. Dora, Florida $749 Couple $999

Mar. 15-16    Travel to Quito and Andes
Mar. 17-18     Imbabura Real Estate Tour   $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Mar. 19-20    Cotacachi Shamanic Tour      $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Mar. 22-23    Coastal Real Estate Tour        $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Mar. 25-26    Cuenca Real Estate Tour        $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.

Enjoy extra savings with a multi tour pack.

2 seminar courses & tours $998 Couple  $1,499

3 seminar courses & tours   $1399 Couple  $1,899

4 seminar courses & tours   $1,699 Couple $2,299

5 seminar courses & tours  $1,999 Couple $2,699

6 seminars courses & tours  $2,199 Couple $3,099

(Be sure to show in the comments section which courses and tours you are attending)

International Club attend up to 52 courses and tours in 2010 free.

See our entire 2010 seminar and tour schedule here

Global Business for Privacy and Asset Protection


Global Business for Privacy and Asset Protection.  Gain Opportunity, Privacy, Asset Protection and help the less fortunate all at the same time.

Here is an excerpt from the emailed international business section of our Tangled Web How to Have an Internet Business course.

A dying sun-majestic orange drops slowly, in its ancient rite, beneath the sea. The road darkens and an inky dusk shades this winding ribbon as it leads higher and higher, rising from the gloom of lush jungle into a chilled desert air.

Lome, Togo, in the dying heat of the day, on the rugged National Highway. Leading inland from the jungles of this African port, the road struggles a thousand miles upwards over five mountain chains through Togo and into the landlocked nations of Mali and Niger. Truck after truck struggles along the path, rusting, dented hulks, worn and well past their prime, but still hauling, overloaded, pushed by wearied, blurry eyed drivers. This mainstream of transportation is pushed past its limits, the trucks caked in dirt, running on cheap gas and worn out tires. They groan and grind slowly out of the jungle, up 500 miles of mountain into Dapong, Togo, half way through their journey.

There is a lesson in this African scene that explains how to gain opportunity plus increase asset protection and privacy… and in some cases can reduce tax, all at the same time.

international-adventure

There is adventure and beauty to gain in a global life as well… from Africa to Ecuador. This is our daughter, Francesca, hiking in the Drakensberg Mountains of South Africa and Lesotho.

international-adventure

Such beauty.  The key is to enjoy all this beauty globally and…

international-adventure

like Fran and Sam above… also gain opportunity and…

international-adventure

live life to its fullest. Plus she is doing good working for the UN in Africa to help the less fortunate.

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Here I am, hiking with…

international-adventure

our hound Ma and friends in…

international-adventure

the Andes near Cotacachi. Beauty is everywhere.  We enjoy it. We profit from our international adventures plus our foundation has been able to donate hundreds of thousands of dollars to help the indigenous people of Ecuador.

For an example of how international business structures can help you profit and help others we return to Lome in Africa. The National Highway through Togo is the only link to the landlocked countries of Niger and Mali. The road is rough and trucks have worn out their tires by the time they reach the city of Dapong, half way up the road. A couple developed this perfect structure because they learned that used tires would sell briskly in Dapong.

However, when they checked out shipping used tires from the U.S., they found freight costs too high. Then they realized there was also a good market in Togo for used shoes as well. They knew that Americans hardly ever wear out their shoes. They then had a brilliant idea to stuff the used tires full of used shoes! Thus, they were able to ship the used shoes inside the used tires and establish a thriving, successful business.

There is more to this story than meets the eye. First this true tale shows how many ways there are to make money abroad. Who would have thought of selling used tires and shoes from America in Africa? But second and more important this story shows that everyone can have his own international business. The story shows that anyone from any walk of life can get into a real international business. This man and his wife were not business people. They were missionaries. They started the business to raise money for their mission.

Circle of 100

This brings us to the Circle of 100. In short If you have a non U.S. business that does not do business in the U.S. that is not controlled (50% shareholders are not U.S. citizens or residents) by U.S. shareholders, that company not only has no U.S. tax liability, but does not even have a U.S. tax filing requirement. (Non U.S. citizens and residents should check their tax laws.)

So the key is to have an overseas business that is 50% owned by non U.S. residents. Yet some people don’t want a business partner. (Keep in mind if you don’t have a partner you get the IRS as your partner by default.) In this case, I recommend donating half the company to non U.S. charities. The more the better. Donate half a percent to 100 charities around the world spread around the world!

Age or circumstances don’t matter either. In fact if you are active in a business you love you will probably live longer. For example this delegate in Africa who started the business was in his 80’s and they have now set up a twenty-year business plan!

The time for having your own business has become easier and easier. Rapid improvements in technology have made right now perfect for small businesses. Low cost telephone communication, travel and transportation make global business easy. For example Merri and I now have over 20,000 readers all over the world, but still operate from our home in one of the most remote parts of North Carolina and Ecuador as well as Florida.

So if you are looking for the perfect tax shelter, one that will last and is not likely to be clobbered by Congress the minute it works well, look at doing a real international business. You can enhance your tax savings, gain enormous privacy and asset protection and improve the wealth and fulfillment in your life.

This is the simple explanation but the structure is somewhat more complex.  If this is of interest to you can learn more about our $299 emailed “Tangled Web How to Have an Internet Business course“.

Gary

Seven P Secrets of Self Publishing

When you write, you can work anywhere. 

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Here I am working poolside in the winter, at our Florida farm.

gary scott

Here I am with our hound Ma, working during the summer at our North Carolina farm.

Learn how to earn everywhere, while living anywhere you choose.  I have been able to earn by writing in Hong Kong, England, the Isle of Man, Dominican Republic and Ecuador to name a few of the place I have lived.  Everywhere I have been… too numerous to share here, I have been able to work.

All I need is my laptop.

That’s all you need too… a laptop to be free!

Before computers, a pencil and pad did the job.

Freedom is just one benefit you can gain from writing.

Another benefit is income.   Writing has brought me both our farms, free and clear… plus a lot more.

Another good example of earning potential is my friend Hugh Howey.   He was working for $10 an hour in a book store when he self published his novel Wool, typing in a storage room during his lunch breaks.

Soon he was earning over $100,000 a month on Amazon.com.  This helped secure a six-figure book deal from Simon & Schuster, and an option for film by Ridley Scott, director of Blade Runner and Alien.

That’s what he’s doing now.

Hugh Howey

Sometimes Hugh and I get together at my  farm and play chess (he beats me badly).

Writers like High are great inspirations.

A couple of years ago Hugh  left Florida, and moved to South Africa.  He had a sailing catamaran built for him and now can sail the world while he continues to write.

Hugh explained it like this: And that’s the miracle of working as a writer: I can do it from anywhere and everywhere. The past few years, I’ve done a lot of writing from airplanes and airports while on business trips abroad.  SAND was entirely written overseas while traveling through seven different countries; I think it’s a better story because of those inspirations.  In upcoming years, I may be writing near your home port.

Hugh’s a super star writer and his success could not happen to a more deserving and talented person.  He pours enormous energy into being worthy of his readership.  But you do not have to be a million dollar a year earner or a traveler to benefit from writing.

The good news is… you do not need a huge success to have a rich and fulfilled lifestyle.  Self Publishing can bring you a life that most people only dream of, as a journeyman writer, instead of a super star.

May I hastily add that the path to stardom begins as a journeyman… so the journeyman’s path brings success without stardom… but can also lead to stardom.

What most success stories like Hugh’s rarely explain is the many hours of writing that was devoted before their self published book sales soared.   Hugh, like most writers were journeymen first.  Stardom came later.

Here are sevens secrets that can help you become a journeyman writer. 

The secrets are a writer’s armory of tools that allows almost anyone to create successful publications for income, freedom and fulfillment.

Take Merri’s and my publishing business as an example.  

Merri and I are not writing stars.  We are journeymen who have for more than 40 years, year in and year out, earned solid income writing and self publishing dozens of publications about multiple subjects.

Some years that income has been more than solid… over a million dollars.  Yet in terms of stardom, we are hardly known.

In a moment you’ll see why that’s fine for us and probably will be for you too.

First some history.

Merri became involved in self publishing over 40 years ago… first helping a veterinarian publish a book on a very specific market… animal acupuncture. Then she showed a needle point artist how to sell more books to an even more specific audience… “needle point enthusiasts”  about her needle point work to an audience larger than the population of the city she lived in.  This led Merri to eventually become Executive Editor of an award winning magazine in Florida.

My story allowed Merri and me to work and live from Hong Kong to London to Europe to Eastern Europe, then the Caribbean and then Ecuador… making millions in the process of following our adventures… having fun… while helping a large readership adapt to a rapidly changing world.

That’s what self publishing can bring, profit, adventure and fulfillment, a great feeling of worth and wonder.

Self Publishing has created exactly the lifestyle we desire allowing us to span the world and work with meaning and purpose.

Self Publishing has become a new business art form. 

The seven secrets can help you start your own self publishing business now.

Everything in publishing is new and exciting and changing.  Publishing is being recreated by the wonderful power of destructive technology.

Everything is new… except the seven secrets. 

Change in the publishing industry is disturbing many.   We love this evolution due to these seven secrets we call the 7Ps.  The 7 Ps are so fundamental to writing and publishing that new technology enhances rather than reduces their power.

The First P is Passion.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it AND create income with self publishing.  This can be your direct ticket to the kind of fulfillment you’ve always wanted.

Whether you want to travel the world or live as a recluse, work 12 hours a day or not work much at all,  you can set your schedule to succeed, if you’re willing to learn these seven secrets.

You can start part-time with any dream, passion, and budget.  Once you’ve created a product, you’ll enjoy the “multiple effect” of producing profits over and over again.

So the question is… What do you love to do?

What’s Your Passion:  An example is that thirty years ago, a client of Merri’s had a passion to help people who were in pain?  He published a series of pamphlets explaining various chiropractic disorders in very simple terms.  For example: “What Is Whiplash?”

The pamphlets contained solid information, but were simple 5″ x 7″ brochures with drawings and explanations. He sold them with a rack to chiropractors, who put them in their offices for patients to read.  These little self-published items sold year in and year out for decades.

There are thousands of ideas of this sort that can lead to big business.  It’s just a matter of defining and then acting on your passion.

Although I can work when I please and go where I wish, for me the most important reason for being a publisher is the satisfaction it brings. 

I love the projects I take on, so work doesn’t feel like, well… work.

What do you love?  If you love golf, then you can write and sell publications about golf.  Love travel, fishing, dogs, dolls, or art?  Write and sell publications in these fields.

Are you concerned about crime, war, poverty or environmental issues?  You can publish information products that help reduce these concerns.

Would you like to help the world be a more spiritual place?  Publish a newsletter, write a book (or hire someone to write it for you), record a tape… publish something that enlightens people.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it and earn income by publishing for ereaders, print on demand, CDs, lists, bound books, or any format you choose.

Be immersed in your passion and get paid well for it. 

This is why stardom is not the main goal for most writers and self publishers.  Extra income, more freedom and fulfillment are usually more than enough enough.

The seven Ps are:

#1: Passion

#2: Problem

#3: Person

#4: Profitably Priced Product

#5: Prospecting Pathway

#6: Promise

#7: Presentation

The first time I exposed others to the secrets in Self Publishing was in a weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.  We offered the camp for $1,500. 80 delegates enrolled.  People from all walks of life attended—chiropractors, businessmen, investors, doctors, realtors, inventors, airline pilots, engineers, and housewives.

Merri and I were so overwhelmed by the response, we decided to make it available to a larger audience.  We created a written course based on our current self publishing activity called “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.”  Then we recorded the weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.

Thousands have used the course as it has evolved over the decades.

You can receive both the written course and the recorded weekend seminar, in an MP3 file, in a special “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program I am making available to you.  The normal fee is $299 for the written course and $299 for the recorded workshop.   I’ll send you both the course and the recorded workshop and my course “International Business Made EZ (also $299) all for $299.  You save $598.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within 60 days for a full refund .

These courses are not theoretical.  They describe, step-by-step, how Merri and I built a million-dollar international business and how we are running this self publishing business right now.   We use the 7Ps today just as we did four decades ago to create a strong annual income.

This correspondence course is for those who would like their own international self publishing micro business for fun and profit. If you want fun, freedom, extra income and fulfillment with your own full or part time writing or want to build your existing business, by writing to sell you can profit from this course.  The course can help who want their own business or who want to have a business together or a family business.  This is the perfect course for those who can no longer find employment, who are looking for ways to earn abroad and who wish to retire and supplement their income.

Whether you are retired, an investor, chiropractor, doctor, dentist, professional or already own your own business, this offers another way to make money, to turn your passion into profit. We guarantee that we have shared all we know to help you start and run your own international business.  Enjoy and live a life of following your Passion to Profit… through writing.

Here is a special offer. 

We provide two emailed courses  “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell and be a Self Publisher” and “International Business Made EZ”.

We include the “Self Fulfilled Writing and Self Publishing Course” because there are two reasons to write, when you have something to say or when you have something to sell.  In this day and age many of us want to do both, make a statement that makes the world a better place and earn something extra in the process. 

Whatever your passion, however you do business, chances are you’ll be writing either to create a product or to sell a product. 

You save more than $598 because you also receive a recorded webinar conducted by our webmaster David Cross (at no extra cost).

David-cross-images tags:"2012-4-20"

David Cross

David has been our webmaster since our website began in the 1990s.  He is Merri’s and my business partner. We could not run our business as we do without him.

Learn the tactics we use in our web business that condenses 27 years of practical experience about search engine optimization, and writing for search engines.

For the last 27 years David has worked with companies large and small – IBM, Agora Publishing, AstraZeneca and many small business owners.  He has worked in 22 countries, and lived in six of them.

David’s clients span the globe and represent companies and charities both large and small.  From corporate giants to small, one-woman businesses and everything from finance, healthcare, publishing, technology, real estate, veterinarians, alternative health centers and everything in between.

David is an essential part of our web based business.

Myles Norin, CEO of Agora, Inc.  wrote:  “I have found David’s knowledge and experience unmatched in the industry.  Without David’s expertise and guidance for the past 7 years, we would not be nearly as successful as we are.”

As Senior Internet Consultant to Agora Inc. in Baltimore, MD, he worked closely with Agora’s publishers and marketers and – over a 7-year period – helped to propel Agora’s online revenues from around $20 million to well over $300 million.

David’s webinar will help you gain benefits in your micro business that large internet marketing companies use.  In this practical recorded workshop you will learn valuable skills to help your micro business.

There has never been a time when the opportunity for small businesses abroad has been so outstanding.  Expand your borders now!  Increase your economic security freedom, independence and success.

If you are not fully satisfied that this offers you enormous value simply email us for a full refund within 60 days.  You can keep all three courses as our thanks for giving our courses a try.

You also receive a report  “How to use Relaxed Concentration to Brainstorm Business Ideas” and a recorded workshop “How to Become and Remain Rich With Relaxed Concentration” at no additional cost.

Plus you get more in the program.

You receive regular writing and self publishing updates for a year.  Businesses usually need to evolve.  Merri and I continue to publish and have our independent businesses.  Some basics have remained for decades, but new strategies occur all the time throughout the year.  We’ll be sending along updates that share our most recent experiences as we learn and continue to grow our international micro business from Smalltown USA.

My special offer to you in this “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”, is that you receive:

  • “International Business Made EZ” course
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell” course
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3,
  • MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • Any updates to any of the courses, workshops, reports or recordings for a year.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within the first three months for a full refund . 

Order “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” and a quarter of update lessons $79.   Click Here.

Order “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” and a full year of update lessons $299.  Click Here.      

See success stories from Self Publishers and a few who have attended the “Writer’s Camp” that you will receive on MP3.

 

Ecuador & the US Dollar


Ecuador and the US dollar.

A Canadian reader recently sent this question about Ecuador and the US dollar.

I am hoping our Canadian dollar gains on the US dollar so we stretch our purchasing power in Ecuador.  Could you give me a better idea of the potential for this?

An excerpt from one of our recent Multi Currency updates outlines my belief that long term the US dollar will fall. I sent my multi currency readers this note:

With my recent US dollar loans the currency allocation in my liquid portfolio is:

US$  -2.0%
CAD  6.0%
NZD  6.0%
AUD   6.0%
$ Bloc   16.0%

GBP   8.0%
DKK  10.0%
SEK   4.0%
EURO 39.0%
Euro bloc 61.0%

TRY 6.0%
HUF 7.0%
BRL 6.0%
EMCS 6.0%
Emg Curr  25.0%

This represents a large overweighting in the euro and related currencies.

A recent note from a British reader explains why I have so many euros.   The  reader sent this note:

We Europeans wake with a new President elect tomorrow: President van Rompuy (currently Belgian Prime minister).

He may not have quite the charisma of President Obama but he will now lead the European Union, the largest economic power in the world. Consider:

-The European Union’s GDP ($18.9trillion) is larger than the United States ($14.5 trillion) and China ($4.3 trillion) COMBINED
-van R represents 492 million citizens
-EU is the world’s largest aid donor
-world’s second longest coast-line helping establish it as the world’s largest importer and exporter
-Home to more global cities than any other region in the world

Yet…

We have not had a chance to vote for van Rompuy of course, no surprise as the EU is the world’s largest elite driven technocracy that is (in my humble opinion) transforming Westminster, the mother of all Parliaments into a regional Assembly and squeezing the life out of accountable democracy like a giant multi-headed serpent that speaks 145 different languages.

Consider:

-75% of new environmental law comes from the EU
-EU law is now supreme law and trumps national law in all EU countries
-Do you know who your MEP is or what they get up to in Brussels?
-The EU elite has largely refused to let its citizens vote via referenda on the relentless expansion of EU powers and effective end of national soverignty (and where there have been referenda i.e. Ireland: have refused to take no for an answer, bullying second referenda until they say Yes)

So, awake and all hail President elect van the man Rompuy, a new global Giant, the dawn of a new era. A thrilling day for the Euro Elite, a sad day for democracy.  Thanks God.  At least it wasn’t Tony Blair.

You can enroll in our Mutli Currency Course here.

I believe the Canadian dollar will appreciate against the US dollar… but not as much as emerging and European currencies.  To protect the purchasing power of one’s currency… diversify out of the US dollar.   My portfolio above shows that I am voting with my money as well as my mouth.

Here is a chart from finance.yahoo.com of the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar.

ecuador-dollar

Here is the US dollar versus the euro for the past five years.

ecuador-dollar

Whichever currencies you choose for diversification… the charts are pretty clear.  The US dollar is headed down and has not yet reached its previous low.

However to not forget that I believe that all currencies will lose purchasing power. This is why I have Ecuador houses and…

Cotacachi-Adobe-house-Rental-lounge

Ecuador office buildings…

Cotacachi-condos

Ecuador hotels…

ecuador-dollar

and Ecuador condos in my portfolio.

ecuador-dollar

There are four ways to combat the loss of global currency purchasing power.  Invest in global shares… commodities… real estate and/or have your own business.  This is why we offer our emailed course “Tangled Web… How to Have Your Own Internet Business”.

Gary

Join us in Ecuador or Florida or Both. See the best Ecuador property for you.  Find the best real estate offers.  Know more of Ecuador. To help you experience a bigger adventure in this wonderful nation, to broaden your horizons, to expand your awareness of all Ecuador offers, we are providing deep discounts in 2010 for those who sign up for multiple tours.

Join us at our upcoming courses and tours.

December 6-8 Blaine Watson’s  Beyond Logic & Shamanic Tour

December 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

December 11-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Join us in 2010. See our winter Ecuador real estate tours below.

Jan.   8-11     Ecuador Export Tour $499 Couple  $749

Jan. 13-14     Imbabura Real Estate Tour   $499 Couple $749
Jan. 15-18     Coastal Real Estate Tour $499 Couple $749
Jan. 19-20    Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour  $499 Couple $749
Jan. 21-23    Cuenca Real Estate Tour  $499 Couple $749

Enjoy extra savings with our special early bird fees (if you enroll in November 2009)

Join us in February or March.

Feb. 11-14   Quantum Wealth Florida -International Investing & Internet Business, Mt. Dora, Florida ($749) Couple $999

Feb. 15-16   Travel to and visit Quito
Feb  17         Travel to Manta
Feb. 18-19   Coastal Real Estate Tour   $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Feb. 20        Travel to Cotacachi
Feb. 21-22   Imbabura Real Estate Tour  $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Feb. 23-24  Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Feb. 26-27  Cuenca Real Estate Tour  $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.

Mar. 11-14     Super Thinking + Spanish Course, Mt. Dora, Florida $749 Couple $999

Mar. 15-16    Travel to Quito and Andes
Mar. 17-18     Imbabura Real Estate Tour   $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Mar. 19-20    Cotacachi Shamanic Tour      $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Mar. 22-23    Coastal Real Estate Tour        $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.
Mar. 25-26    Cuenca Real Estate Tour        $499 Couple $749 or discounted fee for multiple tours below.

Enjoy extra savings with our special early bird fees (if you enroll in November 2009)

2 seminar courses & tours $949 Couple  $1,399

3 seminar courses & tours   $1199 Couple  $1,749

4 seminar courses & tours   $1,399 Couple $2,149

5 seminar courses & tours  $1,599 Couple $2,499

6 seminars courses & tours  $1,999 Couple $2,999

(Be sure to show in the comments section which courses and tours you are attending)

International Club attend up to 52 courses and tours in 2010 free.

See our entire 2010 seminar and tour schedule here

Ecuador’s Season


Our belief in Ecuador, as a place to live and invest, comes in part because of its position in the seventh wave of the industrial revolution.

We conducted our International Investing & Business Course last weekend here at the Jefferson Lansing Golf resort clubhouse.

ecuador-season

We reviewed cycles and seasons… how Ecuador opportunity and business in Ecuador really pick up at about this time of the year.  Ecuador’s up season is coming up.

Seasonality is a really important factor of investing to keep in mind… especially right now… as we will see below.

First, in that course we looked at the Asset Allocation of my portfolio and…

Ecuador Property      15%
US Property                46%
Total Real Estate   61%
Equities                           3%
Emerging Bonds            9%
Bonds                             14%
Cash                                13%
Total Liquid              39%

Why I have so little in the stock market now is due to cycles, seasonality and personal values.

Regarding seasonality, October is the bewitching month of  shares.

We viewed how, since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the western economy has been moving through fifteen-year upward and downward cycles.  We saw how we are in the tenth year of a potentially 15 year downward wave.

Since the 1800s the stock market has moved in 30 year waves, peaking in bubbles and ending in troughs. Technology, warfare and politics are all related to these cycles. The phrase that coined this great social economic transformation we call the “Industrial Revolution,”  according to historian David Landes, was first in a letter of 1799 written by French envoy Louis-Guillaume Otto.

Since that time mankind has enjoyed ten boom cycles… each created by new technology. Each boom has been followed by a bust… a bear market… a down wave that lasts about 15 years…. for 310 years.

So it is appropriate that in information era up wave  (the dotcom bubble) the Dow topped at 10,336  and then crashed Oct 1, 1999… 300 years after the first revolution began.

Here is a chart of the Dow in that 10th upward period from www.finance.yahoo.com.

ecuador-season

That crash began the current 15 year side ways model that marks the downward cycle.   The peaks and valleys, consistent with the downward wave has slaughtered many investors which, I explained at the course,  is why I have so few equities now.

Seasonality is why I  am not buying equities in October as well.

We viewed how seasonality was at work. Over 30 years the Dow has grown 8.16% overall but all of that growth and more (8.36% per annum average)  has come in the months of November through April. The average annual growth per annum over thirty years in May  to October is only 0.37%.

In other words… October is a volatile month for shares.  In fact the worst days of  the US stock market have been in October.

Black Thursday was October 24th in 1929. During that frenetic day nearly 13 million shares changed hands, nearly four times the norm.  Black Tuesday was October 29, 1929.   The market was slashed again leaving the Dow 40% down in that week.

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Black Monday  was October 19, 1987, global equity markets crashed, starting in Hong Kong. Panic rushed to Europe and then knocked the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) down 22.61%, its largest one day drop ever.

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In short the good equity growth season is about to begin.

Market timing is never more important than the search for value… but it sure can help the search for value.

Seasonality studies give support to the current bear market recovery but suggest the support is best after October.

Plus watch out for a severe October market correction!

Thomas Fischer from Jyske Global Asset Management was with us and pointed out that JGAM’s  low risk portfolios have a very underweight position in equities as well.

During the course we also looked at the importance of personal values in investing by enjoying the process.

We saw some great autumnal beauty…

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in the Blue Ridge during the course.  We walked some glorious paths.

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Yet this is an El Nino year… a cold winter is predicted.  A long one maybe.

Excerpts from a 19 August 2009 UN New Center article entitled “El Niño weather pattern likely to continue into 2010, explains why: The United Nations agency dealing with weather, climate and water says an El Niño event has begun in the tropical Pacific and is likely to continue into early 2010.

El Niño and La Niña bring significant temperature fluctuations in surface waters of the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean: an El Niño event sees a rise in temperatures and La Niña witnesses a drop in normal temperatures.

These temperature changes are strongly linked to major climate fluctuations around the world, especially in Latin America, Australia and East Asia, which can last for a whole year or more. Both El Niño and La Niña can disrupt the normal weather patterns and have widespread impacts on climate in many parts of the world.

The UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said today that sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific had risen to between 0.5 and 1 degree Celsius warmer than normal by the end of June, with similar temperatures in July.

“Scientific assessments of these observations indicate that this warming resembles the early stages of an El Niño event,” the Geneva-based agency stated in a news release.

In its most recent update on the subject, WMO stated that the expectation is for El Niño conditions to very likely prevail through the remainder of 2009 and into the first quarter of 2010.

Last year our autumn paths in October turned…

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to this in November.

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Here was the weather report yesterday Oct.14 2009 at Asheweather.comRainy, cold, and raw about sums it up for today. High temperatures for the day were early this morning; We’ll slip into the lower 40s for the rest of the daytime as rather steady rain continues. Watch out for thick, dangerous fog along the Blue Ridge today through much of Thursday. And yeah, we weren’t kidding about that weekend snow shower thing. Gory details below.

Here are some weather statistics for our area that suggest what  happens in Southwest Virginia and Northwest North Carolina (where we are in the Blue Ridge) during an El Nino year.

Roanoke’s snowiest month on record was January 1966, with more than 41 inches. That was during an El Nino.

Roanoke’s coldest winter on record was that of 1977-78, which also had more than 37 inches of snow. That was during an El Nino.

Roanoke got 19 inches of snow on Feb. 10 and 11, 1983. That was during an El Nino.

Roanoke’s snowiest year of the 1950s (1957-58), second snowiest of the 1990s (1992-93) and snowiest of the 2000s (2002-03) each in the 28-to-30-inch range occurred during El Ninos.

Long term patterns in weather or stock markets are no guarantees… but by looking at the odds wouldn’t you rather invest in equities at a time that historically has shown the highest appreciation year after year.   And though snow and cold are not guaranteed up north, wouldn’t you rather have this in the dead of winter (Mt Imbabura) or…

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this?

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Ma, Merri and our friend Steve Hankins at our condos in San Clemente, Ecuador.

This is why we added three more courses and tours in December in our 2009 schedule and will have even more Ecuador courses in January though March 2010.

The remaining 2009 courses are below.

Gary

Join our Ecuador courses and tours October, November or December.

The greatest asset of all is the ability to labor at what you love wherever you live. This brings everlasting wealth.

This is why we are providing a special three for one offer with our  course Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business

This course can help you create your own internet business.

Our emailed course “Tangled Webs We Weave – How to Have Your Own Web Based Business” is a continuing educational program.  You receive the first 28 lessons when you enroll and a new lesson every week or two.

This course teaches how to create a web based business and is developed from the ongoing experiences that we have from our successful and profitable internet business.

This course is well worth the enrollment fee of $299… but currently you also receive two additional courses FREE.

The other two courses are #1: International Business Made EZ, and #2: Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.

These two courses have sold for $398 and thousands have paid this price. We add them to your course, at no added cost, as I believe they will help you develop a better business in these crucial times..

Even Better Get All three Courses Free

To make this offer even more compelling,  I am giving everyone who enrolls in all our seminars or tours for any one month, October, November or December, “Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business Course,”  “Self Fulfilled- How to be a Self Publisher” and “International Business Made EZ” free.

Head south to Ecuador!

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Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Oct. 25-26 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

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In Cotacachi the weather is always Spring like.  Here is the village plaza near our hotel Meson de las Flores.

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Let our friendly staff at Meson de las Flores serve you.

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

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This shorts weather photo was taken from our beach penthouse in February.

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Oct. 25-26 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

December 6-8 Beyond Logic Shamanic Tour

December 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

December 11-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Join us in the mountains and at the sea.  Attend more than one seminar and tour and save even more plus get the three emailed courses free.

Attend any two Ecuador seminar or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799

Read the entire UN article El Niño weather pattern likely to continue into 2010, says UN agency