Tag Archive | "Federal Reserve System"

Value Prevails in Three Ways


This month there has been a trifecta of value recovery for those weighted out of the US dollar.

Value investors are often a lonely lot… because value is found in unusual places… that are out of the way.   When everyone is doing something… the action becomes fashionable and prices rise too high.

The mathematical formula is easy… big crowds = poor value.

Investing in Europe and the euro has not been very fashionable for quite some time… with reason.  There has been plenty of risk in Europe and the euro.

Three events came together at about the same time so readers who have been reading this website in preparation for our October 5-6-7 Super Thinking + International Investing and Business Seminar have enjoyed a nice spurt of profit.  For those who borrowed dollars low and deposited euros high the profits have been very nice.

The three events are the Fed’s action… European Union action and more trouble in the Middle East.

To those who said we Europhiles were crazy to be investing in the Euro… here is our revenge.

Screen shot 2012-09-17 at 9.37.34 AM

www.finance.yahoo.com euro to US dollar account as of yesterday at 9:30 Eastern time.  (Click on photo to enlarge).

For those who thought we were even crazier to be investing into Britain’s recession with 10% Skipton Building Society pound denominated bonds that pay almost 10%… here is our spurt of profit as well.

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British pounds to the US dollar www.finance.yahoo.com

For those who thought we were totally nuts to invest in more Unicredit shares… here is our double profit… the share spurt… and the currency because Unicredit is denominated in Euro.

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Unicredit share chart from UK.finance.yahoo.com

10,000 unicredit shares were worth 31,470 euro a month ago.  Today they are worth 37,000 euro.

Because the euro has risen from 1.23 dollars per euro to 1.31 that means the shares were worth $38,700  a month ago. Today they are worth $41,225.

Borrow Low-Deposit High

Those who leveraged their speculations earned even more.

Those who borrowed dollars at 3% to invest in Unicredit shares $38,700 invested a month ago (plus $38,700 borrowed) is worth $82,450 now.

The 38,700 loan payoff and costs (estimated at 1.25% – about $485) would leave 43,265… a profit of  $4,565 or 11.79% in a month.

Honestly it is not fair to just grab one moment of time and look at profit or loss.  This is not a suggestion that we’ll see the same spurt this month… but these sudden profits were expected. We just did not know when.  This is the lot of a value investor… to buy good value and wait for the forces of reality to prevail.  At times the portfolio will show losses… even more if the portfolio is leveraged… but reality is on your side when you invest in value.  You stack the odds in your favor especially if you can be patient and wait for the spurts.

At our upcoming October seminar we look at how to calculate potential gains and losses and how to lock n profits after a spurt.

These three events (in the Fed, EU and Middle East) by the way did not cause profit spurts.  Events do not cause spurts.  Imbalances in value are the forces that move markets and prices.  Events just get a ball rolling.

The First Event was created by the Fed.

Last week’s New York Fed Times article entitled “New Aid to Jobs Recovery in Forceful Move by Binyamin Applebaum  shows how the Fed has started a ball rolling… one that could be a big ball that rolls for a long time.

Here is an excerpt from the articles:  The Federal Reserve opened a new chapter Thursday in its efforts to stimulate the economy, saying that it intends to buy large quantities of mortgage bonds, and potentially other assets, until the job market improves substantially.

This is the first time that the Fed has tied the duration of an aid program to its economic objectives. And, in announcing the change, the central bank made clear that its primary reason was not a deterioration in its economic outlook, but a determination to respond more forcefully — in effect, an acknowledgment that its incremental approach until now had been flawed.

I agree with part of Bernanke’s statement… that the previous approach has been flawed.  There are at least three problems n this policy.

Policy problem #1:  This makes it more attractive for banks to deal with the Fed than with businesses.   The Fed’s policy has made credit really inexpensive.  Just one problem… you can’t get these cheap loans.  Why in the world would a bank lend to a risky business when it can make great profits dealing with the Fed instead?

Policy Problem #2: The low interest rates destroy the concepts of investing and pensions as we have known them.   No supposedly safe investment gives any return at all so investors are forced to speculate instead… or risk watching the purchasing power their savings and pensions obliterated… because these policies will bring inflation eventually.

Policy Problem #3: The two problems above are being financed by accounting slights of hand.  The Fed creates money by calling debt an asset.  This eventually leads to the deterioration of the monetary system… the social promise and the stability of the nation.

Thomas Fischer at Jyske Global Asset Management JGAM) agrees.  He wrote:  Hi Gary,

Ben Bernanke has really added downwards pressure on the US dollar. Today the dollar is trading to the euro at 130.50 and I think we could easily see 135 in the near future.

With the so called fiscal cliff approaching and a presidential election much uncertainty is still expected – should be a strong case for diversifying outside the US and the US dollar.

The Second Event is Perceptions of More Stability in Europe.

JGAM wrote about this as well and said:  The waiting game is over, as the German high court, the Dutch electorate and the Fed all delivered what the financial markets have been seeking, namely clarity and stimulus.

Wednesday investors shouted “Yes” as the German high court ruled that the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) did not violate the country’s constitution. The court did, however, state that the German parliament must vote on any further increases to the ESM. Germany is currently liable for about 27 percent or 190 billion euro to the European bailout scheme of 700 billion euro.

In the Netherlands the voters shouted “Yes” to Europe and backed the two pro-European parties, while simultaneously rejecting the Freedom party, which had campaigned against an integrated Europe. The Prime Minister Mark Rutte claimed victory and said that he would seek a coalition with the Labour party that came a close second in the election.

Thursday, Ben Bernanke and the Fed did both a twist and a shout sending equities and gold higher while the US dollar (USD) took a hit against all major currencies.

The Fed announced a new round of quantitative easing (QE3) to the tune of USD 40 billion per month, indefinitely. It has furthermore extended the guidance for low interest rates through mid-2015 from 2014. Lastly, they will also continue operation Twist throughout 2013. The Fed has thus decided that improvement in the economy is more important than any concerns about possible inflation.

You can see how JGAM’s portfolios have fared below.  More importantly one can see how the higher returns have shifted towards the speculative end of the investing spectrum.

The new Fed policy guarantees that safe investments will not really be safe until at least 2015.  A more likely scenario will be that these policies which are similar to the failed policies that Japan has used for almost 15 years will keep the economy flat for three more years.  This will also almost guarantee any real return on deposits and bonds for the next several years. This will leave savings and pensions vulnerable to the inflation that is almost certain to begin when the economy comes back.

JGAM Performance Update

Jyske performance

Leveraged Portfolios

Jyske performance

Benchmark Performance

Jyske performance

The Third Event Was a Trigger in the Middle East.

The Fed’s action did not cause the dollar to fall. The Fed just pulled the trigger.  The  same can be said for the riots and deaths in the Middle East.  The recent Youtube video about Mohammad did not cause the riots.  The years of tension between the regions were the force.  The video was judge a nudge on the trigger that released this negative energy.

Such problems create more American spending on security… less on important economic issues like education, health care… innovation… all bad in the long term for the US dollar.

The US dollar won’t always fall.  America is not the only nation suffering from decades of prosperity… aging populations… weather change and the stresses of globalization.  These simply are value distortions that had accumulated in the last recession. No one knew what to do. Europe was plagued by a rich country poor country rift. Asia’s economic growth was slowing down.   The fashion was to stampede back into the greenback.  A stampede mathematically is big numbers + moving fast = stampede.   Stampede + time = fashion.  Remember  fashion = poor value.

As markets unfold and currencies shift… ignore what the markets are doing. Focus instead on how the values of the shares, markets and currencies shift.

Gary

Learn how to value currencies and when to borrow low and deposit high at our October 5-6-7 Super Thinking + International Investing and Business Seminar.

New York Times article Fed Ties New Aid to Jobs Recovery in Forceful Move

International Business & Investing Expanded


There is expanded international business and opportunity because wage earners and retirees in most of the Western world are being set up. This can create great international business and investing opportunity for you.

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In a moment see why this Ecuador property offers such good value.

Whether this “set up” is on purpose, or not, is a subject of lively contention… but the intention doesn’t really matter much.   The results… created innocently or intentionally will be the same.  Disaster for the middle class.  However opportunities in international business, investing and lifestyles mean that you do not have to share in the loss.

We can begin to understand this fact with three simple thoughts.

The first thought is that the US is currently experiencing deflation. You can see from this graph from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

small-business-statistics

The December 2008 message Multi Currency Inflation at this site, asked the question… will there be inflation or deflation.

Now we know.

The second thought is that the deflationary forces are creating inflationary fundamentals like we have never seen before. The inflation stage is set. This is a formula that means disaster for most… but this does not have to apply to you.

One reader just wrote:  I’m thinking a ‘creative way’ to fix a problem and work through one’s passion will not handle the whole situation.  I hope I’m wrong and you have an even better idea. Medicine and doctors.  Savings stripped.  Destruction of people’s lives and stability.  All done with intention.

The dollar is  going down the toilet, and the best option I see the Fed and Government taking (for themselves, not for us) is to have a debit system.  The debit system would pay people, and would pay others from the people’s account.  People would no longer research to save taxes.  Their accounts would automatically be debited with whatever the government deems able to be taken.  The funds would filter through the Central Bank to be certain the funds are going only where the government it should go.

There is no more representative republic.  There is no more self determinism.  There are no more freedoms as you can be controlled through your debit card.  If government decides you are an ‘unworthy person’ they can easily take all of your nest egg.  If Congress can so thoroughly devastate us overnight one time, they can do it again.  I have a real hard time thinking about a creative way to generate income.  I trust not a congressman.  I certainly do not trust the current administration.  I don’t think they’re through with us.  Best Wishes to you Gary.

Many readers share thoughts like this. I know that so many of you are suffering. Yet I must say: economics will get worse. Fortunately they will then get better.

This leads us to the third thought… which is “the common person who will bear the brunt of the upcoming inflation.”

Yet you do not have to suffer.

A USA Today article “Wages could hit steepest plunge in 18 years
 by Dennis Cauchon and Paul Overberg” explains the problem. Here is an excerpt:  A bad economy and low inflation are starting to drag down wages for millions of everyday workers and freeze benefits for millions of retirees.
Average weekly wages have fallen 1.4% this year for private-sector workers through September, after adjusting for inflation, to $616.11, a USA TODAY analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data found. If that trend holds, it will mark the biggest annual decline in real wages since 1991.
“Wages are usually the last thing to deteriorate in a recession,” says economist Heidi Shierholz of the liberal Economic Policy Institute. “But it’s happening now, and wages are probably going to be held down for a long time.”

Yet falling income for wage earners and retirees is meeting huge potential inflation according to the October 16, 2009  New York Times article  “$1.4 Trillion Deficit Complicates Stimulus Plans” by Jackie Calmes.

Here is an excerpt: The Obama administration said Friday that the federal budget deficit for the fiscal year that just ended was $1.4 trillion, nearly a trillion dollars greater than the year before and the largest shortfall relative to the size of the economy since 1945.  The shortfall for the fiscal year 2009, which ended Sept. 30, translates to 10 percent of the economy.  Economists generally agree that annual deficits should not exceed 3 percent of the G.D.P., and that is the level President Obama had vowed to reach by the end of his first term in 2013.  At 10 percent of the gross domestic product, the 2009 deficit is the highest since the end of World War II, when it was 21.5 percent. At the same time, many Americans are demanding further help, confronting forecasts that job losses will not peak until mid-2010.  Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the Republican minority leader in the House, rejected that position. “It is irresponsible for Democrats to continue spending taxpayers’ money we don’t have to fund an agenda that would destroy the jobs we need to get our economy moving again,” Mr. Boehner said.

The problem looks even worse according to another October 16 2009 USA Today article entitled “Obama team makes it official: Budget deficit hits record. By a lot.” Excerpts say: The Obama administration has released new deficit numbers, and they are not pretty.  The deficit for Fiscal Year 2009, which ended Sept. 30, came in at a record $1.42 trillion, more than triple the record set just last year.  In addition, future deficits are currently projected to total $9.1 trillion in the coming decade.

Yet while the wage earner suffers… others are becoming rich according to an October 17, 2009 New York Tines article entitled
“Bailout Helps Fuel a New Era of Wall Street Wealth” by Graham Bowley.

Excerpts say:  Even as the economy continues to struggle, much of Wall Street is minting money, many Americans wonder how this can possibly be. How can some banks be prospering so soon after a financial collapse, even as legions of people worry about losing their jobs and their homes?
It may come as a surprise that one of the most powerful forces driving the resurgence on Wall Street is not the banks but Washington. Many of the steps that policy makers took last year to stabilize the financial system — reducing interest rates to near zero, bolstering big banks with taxpayer money, guaranteeing billions of dollars of financial institutions’ debts — helped set the stage for this new era of Wall Street wealth.  A year after the crisis struck, many of the industry’s behemoths — those institutions deemed too big to fail — are, in fact, getting bigger, not smaller.  Now, the industry has new tools at its disposal, courtesy of the government.  With interest rates so low, banks can borrow money cheaply and put those funds to work in lucrative ways, whether using the money to make loans to companies at higher rates, or to speculate in the markets. Fixed-income trading — an area that includes bonds and currencies — has been particularly profitable
.

Here is why you do not have to suffer and can profit like the big banks.

Messages at this site have repeatedly shown that four ways to beat inflation are to invest in equities, real estate, your own business and commodities.

Commodities are riskiest in the deflationary times.

Equities have skyrocketed this year… as have bonds treated like equities.

This is as an excerpt from a recent  update in our Multi Currency course shows that 61% of my liquid portfolio is in bonds!

Here is the excerpt:

As of October, my current liquid asset allocation is:

Equities

Jyske Invest  Turkey Equity Fund          TRY-EUR        1%

Jyske Invest  European Equity                EUR-                2%

Jyske Bank Share                                       DKK                 2%

Bank of Florida                                          US$                  1%

Total Equity Position                                               6%

Emerging Bonds

Jyske Invest Emerg Bonds Fund          EMCS              8%

EuroInvest Bank Bond                             TRY               4%
Brazil Government Bond                         BRL               8%
Hungary Government Bond                    HUF              6%

EMCS (emerging market currency spread)

Emerging Bonds Total                                         26%

Bonds

Jyske Invest Danish Bond Fund                DKK            14%

Jyske Invest  European  Bond Fund          EUR           12%

Caisse D’Amort Dette Bond                        EUR             5%

Jyske Invest Swedish  Bond Fund              SEK             4%

Total Bonds                                                                 35%

Cash

US$                                                                                      15%

GBP                                                                                       8%

EUR                                                                                      7%

CAD                                                                                      2%

NZD                                                                                     2%

Total Cash                                                                 34%

Our multi currency subscribers have been able to  fight the dismal economy just like the big banks.

You can learn how to enroll in our multi currency course here.

US dollar denominated real estate also offers extra value now.  The dollar has fallen which reduces the price of real estate. This is why I am heavily invested in US and Ecuador property.

Take this acreage and farm house as an example.  This offers great value because it is an investment in real estate… a business and commodities (food)

ecuador-real-estate

Here is the farm house.  From the front porch there are…

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views of the acreage.

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including…

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animal pens…

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crops…

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storage area…

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rental unit and…

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small local canteen the owner operates.  This is a…

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great value at $79,000 asking.

Ecuador Living subscribers have been sent a full report on this property.  Learn more about Ecuador Living here.

You can see the property (until it sells) above on our Imbabura real estate tours shown below.

The greatest asset of all is the ability to labor at what you love wherever you live. This brings everlasting wealth.

This is why we are providing a special three for one offer with our  course Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business

This course can help you create your own internet business.

Our emailed course “Tangled Webs We Weave – How to Have Your Own Web Based Business” is a continuing educational program.  You receive the first 28 lessons when you enroll and a new lesson every week or two.

This course teaches how to create a web based business and is developed from the ongoing experiences that we have from our successful and profitable internet business.

This course is well worth the enrollment fee of $299… but currently you also receive two additional courses FREE.

The other two courses are #1: International Business Made EZ, and #2: Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.

These two courses have sold for $398 and thousands have paid this price. We add them to your course, at no added cost, as I believe they will help you develop a better business in these crucial times..

Even Better Get All three Courses Free

To make this offer even more compelling,  I am giving everyone who enrolls in all our seminars or tours for any one month, October, November or December, “Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business Course,”  “Self Fulfilled- How to be a Self Publisher” and “International Business Made EZ” free.

Inflation is coming and will hit wage earners and retirees hardest of all.  Yet you can succeed. We look forward to sharing ideas on how to succeed with real estate, multi currency bonds and equities and your own business.

Gary

Head south to Ecuador!

Here is the balance of our 2009 Ecuador real estate tour schedule…  plus Blaine Watson’s Beyond Logic and our last Ecuador Shaman Mingo of the year.

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

December 6-8 Blaine Watson’s  Beyond Logic & Shamanic Tour

December 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

December 11-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Join us in 2010.   Attend more than one seminar and tour and save even more plus get the three emailed courses free.

Our multi seminar-tour discounts have grown!

See the 2010 winter schedule below.

2 seminar courses & tours

3 seminar courses & tours   $1199 $1,749

4 seminar courses & tours   $1,399 $2,149

5 seminar courses & tours  $1,599 $2,499

(Be sure to show in the comments section which courses and tours you are attending)

International Club attend up to 52 courses and tours in 2010 free.

ecuador-exports

Jan.   8-11     Ecuador Export Tour ($499) Couple $749
Jan. 13-14     Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Jan. 16-17     Coastal Real Estate Tour
Jan. 19-20    Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour
Jan. 22-23    Cuenca Real Estate Tour

Feb. 11-14   Quantum Wealth Florida -International Investing & Internet Business, Mt. Dora, Florida ($749) Couple $999
Feb. 15-16   Travel to Quito and Andes
Feb  17-18   Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Feb. 20-21  Coastal Real Estate Tour
Feb. 23-24  Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour
Feb. 26-27  Cuenca Real Estate Tour

Mar. 11-14     Super Thinking + Spanish Course, Mt. Dora, Florida ($749) Couple $999
Mar. 15-16    Travel to Quito and Andes
Mar. 17-18     Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Mar. 19-20    Cotacachi Shamanic Tour
Mar. 22-23    Coastal Real Estate Tour
Mar. 25-26    Cuenca Real Estate Tour

We have been conducting Ecuador real estate tours for a decade longer than any others.   Our success has grown because we do not accept commissions on Ecuador estate shown on these tours.   Our goal is to help you know how to find the best deals on  Ecuador real estate.

The pictures below show some of the property we’ll view on the Ecuador real estate tours.

Delegates see two and three bedroom Andean condos like this.

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with views like this…

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In the $50,000 range.

Large square footage, fixer upper’s like this…

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with large gardens and …

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this view are offered at…

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$30,000… asking.

We see luxury townhouses at $75,000

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We view mansions…

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inside and…

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out.

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Gated communities are visited.

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Coastal land, houses and condos on the beach… near the beach and with views are seen.

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We see beach front penthouses with these views.

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Ultimate luxury…

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Ecuador beach properties are…

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seen.

Plus rustic houses with…

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perfect beach position are found.  I am told that a delegate purchased this house on our last tour.

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Here it that rustic house, on the right of Merri and me walking the beach with a friend and our hound.

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These brand new beach view condos are $89,000 (some of these units for sale are mine and are offered at $79,000 for Ecuador Living subscribers).

ecuador-real-estate

We see luxury condos but also rustic beach B&B opportunities like the one below at $60,000… asking.

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We’ll even see commercial Ecuador real estate opportunity like this hotel… and

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even this Ecuador golf course on a lake that is for sale with…

two restaurants.

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with 144 seats and…

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rental units on…

ECUADOR-PROPERTY

this lake.

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We hope to serve you well with Ecuador real estate.

Gary

Read the entire articles:  Wages could hit steepest plunge in 18 years

$1.4 Trillion Deficit Complicates Stimulus Plans

Obama team makes it official: Budget deficit hits record. By a lot

Bailout Helps Fuel a New Era of Wall Street Wealth  by Graham Bowley

How to Make Money in the Multi Currency Era


The US and Ecuador property market offers a rare opportunity to make money in this multi currency era. Here is an excerpt from a recent multi currency update.

Two economic forces have come together to create extra special profits.

I know because the same  combination occurred in London during the late 1970s and allowed me to increase an investment eleven times in two years by buying property then.

Earlier in 1970 I had lived in London, England for a year, then moved to Hong Kong. During that time I also maintained a home outside of San Francisco, California.

This was a time of great inflation. My homes in California and in Hong Kong appreciated greatly. In the mid 1970s, when I moved from Hong Kong back to London, I noticed that London real estate was priced about the same as it had been in 1970. This puzzled me. Why had London property prices remained flat despite inflation?

On investigation, I learned that there had been a huge real estate crash in 1970 which continued to dampen real estate prices six years later despite the rampant global inflation. I felt this was a great distortion as European property prices had risen, but London prices had not. Yet London offered the best utility as the center of the English speaking world. This, to my way of thinking, created a huge distortion.

It’s late 1976. Britain faced  a sterling crisis. In less than two years the pound has fallen from $2.40 to $1.60. Investors had no faith in the British economy, or the government that ran it. The government’s budget was a mess.  Investors  were ditching the pound.

The plummeting pound pushed the economy to breaking point. Prime Minister Callaghan, in desperation borrowed as much as possible, £2.3 billion from the IMF.

At that time, the British pound collapsed to its lowest level ever (a pound per dollar for a short time) so the distortion widened. This meant in US dollar terms London property had dropped almost 50% while property in other major cities of the western world had increased in price by three or four times.

london-house

The house I bought was right next door and very similar to this house in Bedford Park, London W4.

This house in West London was 34,000 pounds, 9,000 pounds down (then $9,000).   I took a mortgage for 25,000 pounds ($25,000).  I lived in the house and three years later the pound had recovered to 2.2 dollars per pound plus London real estate had caught up with property in other major western centers. I sold the house for 115,000 pounds or $253,000 a profit of $244,000 on a $9,000 investment.

Now it’s the US dollar that is very low.

You will have seen articles something like the the September 7, 2009 Bloomberg article “Weak Dollar? Currency, at 10-Year Low, May Fall More” by Bo Nielsen.

An excerpt says: Anyone who says the dollar is weak after it fetched a record-low $1.3681 against the euro and the fewest pence against the pound in 25 years is expressing a euphemism.

The currency may decline at least another 10 percent by the end of 2008, say Jay Bryson, an economist at Wachovia Corp., and Kenneth Rogoff, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. The dollar has only fallen 3.4 percent in the past two years to a 10-year low, according to a Federal Reserve index that weighs trade with 38 countries including China, Mexico, Canada and countries in Europe. It tumbled 30 percent in the three years ended 1988.

“Dollar weakness will be broad-based and could last for years,” said Bryson, a global economist at Charlotte, North Carolina-based Wachovia who previously analyzed currencies at the Federal Reserve.

Investors are dumping dollars, lured by higher returns elsewhere. The U.S. will grow more slowly than Europe for the first time since 2001 and Japan for the first time in 16 years, the IMF forecasts. The difference in yield between 10-year German bonds and Treasuries has shrunk to the smallest since 2004.

Those who read this site regularly or subscribe to our multi currency course know that I reported my personal portfolio and recommended getting out of the US dollar in February 2009. See that recommendation here.

I showed that my portfolio was 86% out of the greenback.

My liquid portfolio currency allocation was reported as Brazilian real  4%,
 Denmark kroner  33%
,  euro 31%
, British pound 10%
, Turkey lira 8%
, US$ 14%.

I also mentioned in February that I was going to start buying Florida real estate.

So Merri and I began looking and in our research found that there appears to be a hole in the market for Central Florida property selling in the million to $750,000 range.  There seems to be no buyers at all. We have been watching prices tumble hundreds of thousands.

We are viewing one property next week that started at $800K+. It just dropped $100,000 last week from $395,000 and is now down to $295,000.

This is about a 25% drop in that house’s price in six months. That’s pretty good!

Now look at what this means in depreciated dollar terms.

dollar-chart

Here is a chart of the euro to US dollar from yahoo.finance.com from February 2009 to September 10, 2009 when this was written.

In February a US dollar bought .80 euro so that house at $395,ooo cost 319,200 euro.  Now a US dollar buys about .68 euro so this house at $295,000 costs about 200,000 euro.

That is a drop in that house price of 37% in six months in terms of euro. That’s even better!

Here is the magic in this hidden, built-in profit.  For most of the market, the profit is hidden.  Most investors are not comparing currencies and real estate prices.  Yet these distortions will filter through. Eventually European investors…. or those like me who are holding currencies other than dollars will see this distortion and cash in.

I, and now you, just have an advantage because we are always looking at both markets… currency and real estate.

Ecuador Real Estate Cheaper as Well

This also creates better value on Ecuador real estate. Take for example one penthouse property I am selling at $139,000.

This is a perfect property for those who want peace… quiet…and instant access to miles of empty, warm Pacific beach.

ecuador beach rentals

This two room, top floor penthouse is at Palmazul and includes use of the the swimming pool, tennis courts… and spa.   You can dine here, one floor below.

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The units are fully equipped… kitchen…

Ecuador beach rentals

with full size fridge.

Living room…

Ecuador beach rentals with a view…

Ecuador beach rentals leading…

Ecuador beach rentals to large private balconies…

Ecuador beach rentals with these views…

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and sunsets to kill for.

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Long walks on the beach… you can amble at low tide for ten miles and not see a soul.

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Luxury bathrooms with bathtub…

Ecuador beach rentals

and a king size bed with view and caressed by the ocean breeze.

Ecuador beach rentals

This unit would have cost 111,000 euro in February. Now the price has dropped to 94,500 euro… just from the dollar’s fall.

The US and Ecuador property markets offers a rare opportunity to make extra profit now because of hidden added value from the US dollar’s fall. History suggests that real estate is a real asset so its price rises as the currency its counted in falls.

These corrections take time because most property owners do not calculate their property in multi currency terms.  Those of us who watch this can gain extra profit now.

The article above is an excerpt from a recent Multi Currency update. Learn more about multi currency investing. Subscribe to our multi currency course.

Gary

The greatest asset of all is the ability to earn globally in many currencies.

This is why we are providing a special three for one offer with our  course Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business. This can help you create your own internet business.

Our emailed course “Tangled Webs We Weave – How to Have Your Own Web Based Business” is a continuing educational program.  You receive the first 28 lessons when you enroll and a new lesson every week or two.

This course teaches how to create a web based business and is developed from the ongoing experiences that we have from our successful and profitable internet business.

This course is well worth the enrollment fee of $299… but currently you also receive two additional courses FREE.

The other two courses are #1: International Business Made EZ, and #2: Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.

These two courses have sold for $398 and thousands have paid this price. We add them to your course at no added cost as I believe they will help you develop a better business in these crucial times.

Even Better Get All three Courses Free

To make this offer even more compelling,  I am giving everyone who enrolls in our North Carolina or Ecuador International Business & Investing seminar in October or November all three courses, “Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business Course,”  “Self Fulfilled- How to be a Self Publisher” and “International Business Made EZ” free.

Join us with Jyske Bank and my webmaster David Cross in West Jefferson North Carolina. Learn more about global investing, how to have an international business at the seminar.

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina with our webmaster  David Cross & Thomas Fischer of JGAM

Or head south to Ecuador!

October 16-18 Ecuador Southern coastal tour

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Oct. 25-26 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Join us with Peter Laub of Jyske Global Asset Management in Ecuador. Learn more about global investing, how to have an international business at the seminar.

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador Seminar

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Join us in the mountains and at the sea. Attend more than one seminar and tour and save even more plus get the three emailed courses free.

Attend any two Ecuador seminar or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799

Read the entire articles:

Weak Dollar? Currency, at 10-Year Low, May Fall More

Dollar Is Near Lowest in Almost Year as Borrowing Costs Plunge

Ecuador Tickets


See how to save up to $658 on Ecuador tickets to the Galapagos Island tours plus one of the most important international investing thoughts you may see this year.

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First, here is an international investing thought we reviewed at our  recent International Investment and Business Course. Then we’ll look more at Ecuador tickets and how to get Galapagos cruise savings.

Yesterday’s message International Investment Gains looked at the fact that the Dow has moved in 15 to 17 year up and down cycles.  We saw that the Dow is into the twelfth year of a down cycle that started in 1998.  When we compared the Dow’s movements for the last two years to the equivalent time in the previous (1968 to 1982) down cycle, we saw that these two years had an amazing 93% correlation.

This led us to the question…What is next?  See below in blue what the Dow did between 1980 and 1982.

The chart below from Moore Research compares the Dow from 1978 through 1980 to the Dow of the last 18 months. The Blue line is what happened in the equivalent period in the 1970s for the next two years.  Ignore the black line (this is how the Dow has just moved). There should not be and is little correlation.

What is important is understanding the blue line. This what the Dow did during in the equivalent period (1978 to 1980) in the 1968 to 1982 downturn. The black line represent the Dow’s recent activity and should not matter.

This is a really important international investment thought. If history repeats,  if the Dow’s movement from now to mid 2011 has as strong a correlation as 2007 to 2009 had to 1978 to 1980, then the current uptick in the US market is simply bait leading most investors to slaughter!

This chart suggests that soon we will see a sharp correction in the market followed by a period of  very volatile sideways movement.

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Jyske Global Asset Management is suspicious of markets as as well.  Thomas Fischer, Senior VP JGAM, spoke at our July 2009 International Investment Course about the fact that the current upwards trend in the market is not supported by economic fundamentals.

He reconfirmed this when he shared market comments yesterday that said:

Another week with positive trends in global markets. The MSCI World Index is up 1.37% this week but uncertainty about the direction of the market is beginning to show. On Tuesday the Chinese stocks plunged 5% as investors became nervous about the fast share price gains in the Shanghai Composite Index of almost 80% in 2009. The banking industry has seen some very good second quarter reports, but many banks have dramatically increased their provisions against bad loans due to continued pressure on the credit environment. On Tuesday the share price for Deutsche Bank tumbled 11% even though it reported a net income of USD $1.4 billion in the second quarter as bad loan provisions of USD $1.4 billion spooked investors. Consumers are still “maxed out” and with rising unemployment and none existing wage pressures. It will probably take some time before consumers return to the shopping malls in droves as indicated in the consumer confidence number for July showing a fall from 49.3 to 46.6. The big $64,000 question is whether we will have inflation or deflation and at the moment it certainly does not look like inflation. The Fed’s latest survey (Beige Book) shows an economy that is still very weak and the so called  “green shoots” will take a long time to grow.

Jyske Bank and JGAM are one of the few truly international banks that still provides a service for Americans. Learn more about JGAM from Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

In other words… be very cautious about speculating in the equity market.

See an entire report on this as a Multi Currency Portfolios Course subscriber.

Or join us to update what is happening at at our October 9, 10,  11 IBEZ North Carolina Seminar

Here is what a delegate shared about our July seminar:

Merri, My wife and I would like to thank you and Gary for a wonderful course. We thoroughly enjoyed all the information presented by Gary, Thomas and David. And we thank you for your hospitality with having us to your lovely “piece of paradise” in Lansing. The lunch was delicious and your presentation of import/export items was quite interesting.  We look forward to visiting Ecuador in September of 2010. And we look forward to visiting and staying at your hotel in Cotocatchi. Thank you again for a truly life changing and life enhancing weekend. Best regards,

Now let’s look at how a  $119 Ecuador Living subscription can help you save up to $658 on Ecuador Galapagos tickets on one of the most luxurious Galapagos cruises on this catamaran the M/S Nina with this excerpt from the Ecuador Living article Ecuador Galapagos Tickets.

Our friend Kjetil Haugan, the largest Galapagos Ecuador cruise operator just sent us this note.

Dear Friends!  Greetings from Haugan Cruises!

I would like to remind you of the promotions on our fleet for July until December 2009. Please find our special deals below.

The M/C Nina.

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The Nina is also a 16 passenger luxury catamaran, with four main deck double or twin cabins, two single cabins and four upper deck  double cabins, with a king size bed.

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Nina King

All the cabins have a private balcony and the windows can be opened, except for the single cabins that have sealed windows, but still have a little balcony.

The Nina offers eight day cruises only and the normal cruise fee is $4,390 per person in a double cabin.

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Nina Deck

We are offering 2 x 1 deals August 25 – September 1 and Nov 24th to Dec 1st.

We are offering a $1,000 discount  + a flight ticket (Quito to the Galapagos) for August 18 – 25th and September  8 – 15th September 15th – 22nd, Oct 13th – 20th, Oct 20th – 27th and Oct 27th – Nov 03.

For additional information and added discounts see Ecuador Galapagos Tickets.

This is the ticket to the Galapagos, Ecuador!

Haugan tours pays tour operators commissions on these tours but as publishers we do not accept commissions so pass this on to our subscribers in the form of savings that amount to as much as $658.

If you are an Ecuador Living subscriber, contact us to calculate your 15% discount for your Ecuador Galapagos tour.

If you are not an Ecuador Living subscriber and want to go to the Galapagos, you can save money AND have your subscription free!  Learn how to subscribe here.

Gary

Join Merri me and Thomas Fischer of JGAM and our webmaster David Cross in North Carolina this October.

Learn more about global investing, how to have an international business and early retirement in Ecuador at the course.

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Or join us in Ecuador and learn more about living and retiring in Ecuador.

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two.

See other Ecuador tickets to Galapagos cruises here.

Otavalo & Cotacachi Ecuador Food & Pie


Otavalo & Cotacachi Ecuador food is great.

Otavalo pie is magnificent!  This is Torte de Fresa or Strawberry Pie.

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More on Otavalo & Cotacahi Ecuador food… plus a vitally important Spanish lesson (so you will never starve in Ecuador) in a moment.

When Merri and I moved from South Florida about a dozen years ago, one of our great regrets was the distance this added between us and Flora & Ella restaurant in LaBelle, Florida.   This restaurant was started in 1933, by two sisters, Flora & Ella.   The developed a simple place…soda fountain style  where families would congregate and eat good food… and unbelievable pie.  Merri and I used to drive the hour from our home just for a slice.

Though the sisters are no longer there and the establishment as moved to a new building. It still is still a great restaurant…  nothing fancy  except the pie.

Last time we were there, a slice was $2.50. I don’t know the price now. I mourn few things… but missing that pie… sigh.

Some things in America, especially in small town America, have not changed like Flora and Ella.

However much has changed in the US and has been changing since 1969 as evidenced by Don McLean’s  1972 song  “Bye-bye, Miss American pie. Drove my Chevy to the levee, But the levee was dry. And them good old boys were drinkin’ whiskey and rye .”

Prophetic words written long ago but applying to American economics today.

Regrettably the Chevy should have been left on the levy rather than rescued by the government to the tune of billions and rising.

The levy may have been dry then but now it is awash with dollars printed by the Fed without any productivity or backing behind.  However, this creates opportunity in medium and long term gold investments.

There are others ways to have your pie and eat it too.

This growing flood of dollars has reduced its purchasing power. Those of you who remember the 25 cent piece of pie and 10 cent cup of coffee have seen what this means.

Yet I am pleased to announce that you can still have American pie (and at bargain prices) even when you are in Ecuador in Otavalo at…

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Shanandoa Pie Shop on the Plaza des los Ponchos market.

There is a story here… like Flora and Ella. I do not know it… but what I do know is that the pie is almost exactly the same as in La Belle… and delicious at a buck for a huge slice.  Here is the owner and her helper.

Otavalo-cotacachi-ecuador-food

Here is the vital Spanish lesson.  Torte = Cake or Pie.  Or you can also just say “pie”.

I took some shots at The Shanandoa to help with the lesson.

Torte de Manzanilla = Apple Pie.

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Torte de Moira = Blackberry Pie.

Otavalo-cotacachi-ecuador-food

Torte de Naranjilla = Naranjilla Pie  (like lemon meringue).

Otavalo-cotacachi-ecuador-food

Torte de Chocolate = Chocolate Pie.

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Torte de Banana = Banana Creme Pie.

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Now to my way of thinking you know most of  the important Spanish words required to survive. I have discovered that enthusiastic finger pointing works as well.

You also know why it might make sense to buy gold when it is below $900 an ounce.

Until next message, may all you investments and pie be golden!

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

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There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

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However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

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Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

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Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

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Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

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The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

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Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

The American Dream Goes South at Florida Investment Seminar


I’ll focus on how the American dream is heading south at JGAM’s multi currency seminar in Florida this May.

If looked at one way… the American dream is dead. Let’s ramble through economic history for a moment to see why.

In the early 1980s the US had a challenge… a severe recession from July 1981 to November 1982.  Inflation was high so the Fed  slowed the rate of growth of the money supply and raised interest rates. The federal funds rate rose to 20% by June 1981. The prime interest rate, at the time a highly important economic measure, eventually reached 21.5% in June 1982. Businesses went broke by the drove… 50 percent over the previous year.  Especially hard hit were farmers and real estate developers.

The recession was the most serious recession since the Great Depression.

This was tough but inflation eased and the economy rebounded.  Growth took off again… real growth without bad inflation because the real estate overhang and subsequent bankruptcy of the Savings & Loan industry was dealt with by the Resolution Trust Corporation.

RTC liquidated via auction and a massive sell off to private business, the real estate that had been assets of savings and loan associations that were insolvent.

The US government had the sense then not to try and control these assets.  Entrepreneurs bought the assets for pennies on the dollar and turned the property into viable deals in ways that no government agency ever could.

Japan then had a serious recession and the same opportunity.  There was a real estate and stock bubble in Japan in the 1980s.   Then in 1989 there was a massive withdrawal of confidence. Investment collapsed, causing the Nikkei index to fall more than 60 percent.

The Japanese government however decided that it could provide a fix. the Japanese felt they could not let big Japanese businesses go broke.  Between 1992 and 1995, Japan tried six spending programs totaling 65.5 trillion yen. They cut  taxes in 1994. In 1998 they cut taxes again and launched stimulus packages worth more than 40 trillion yen.,  A year later… another stimulus program. In 2000 11 trillion yen more was spent to stimulate the economy.

Over a decade the Japanese government provided 10 stimulus packages worth more than a 100 trillion yen.   The main result was to ruin the Japanese government’s credit with public debt that exceeds 100 percent of GDP. This is the highest percent of debt of all major nations.

Any other results?  Here is evidence… the main Japanese stock index the Nikkei 225 from 1989 till 2009.  Japanese society is indebted for life and the stock exchange has fallen from over 35,000 to  7,600 in 20 years.

Wow that really worked well… so

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now the US government has decided to do the same thing.

Last week the government  offered another $30 billion in funds to A.I.G. insurance.  This is the fourth round of aid to the American International Group. The government already owns nearly 80 percent of the insurer’s holding company. How much more can they buy?

This sounds like a good investment since the insurance giant was about to report a $62 billion loss after the government has already given a $60 billion loan, a $40 billion purchase of preferred shares and purchased $50 billion of the company’s toxic assets.

Behind this, the government has invested $50 billion in Citigroup… $45 billion in Bank of America.  The Us auto bailout could cost another 100 billion. More on that in a later message.

This is all taking place as the US economy spirals down at an accelerated pace.

Yet the current administration is basing its spending on calculations that suggest vigorous rates of economic growth in years to come.

They have suggested this economic growth will come in 2010.

I wonder?

There seems to  a disconnect between the Federal projections and fiscal reality.   Current conditions are not yet at the level of the 1980s, when unemployment exceeded 10 percent, but they could be soon.

Moody’s chief economist now places the odds of “a mild depression” at 25 percent. In that view, the unemployment rate would reach 10.5 percent by the end of 2011 — up from 7.6 percent at the end of January — average home prices would fall 20 percent on top of the 27 percent they have plunged already, and losses in the financial system would more than triple, to $3.7 trillion.

Yet President Obama calls this a “once in a generation” opportunity and proposed a 10-year budget that overhauls health care, arrests global warming and expands the federal role in education.

How to pay for it?   Tax more corporations and the wealthiest taxpayers.

Wrong!  Higher tax will simply kill business or drive it abroad.  What a  good idea to chase away the last of the success.

The President said  he would shrink annual deficits.  His explanation is that he will increase revenue from rich individuals and polluting industries, reduce war costs and assume a good rate of economic growth by 2010.

The rich will stop working or leave the US.  The polluters will move to Mexico or China or wherever.   The high rate of economic growth will not appear.  Stopping the war will help… but not enough.

Technology means that politicians can no longer ignore the global market and tax its citizens to death.

Take for example what is happening in Ecuador.  Remittances sent by  Ecuadorians who work abroad fell 22 percent in the last quarter of 2008.

$643.9 million was sent from October to December 2008. This is $181.7 million less than in Oct.to Dec.2007.

A similar drop was experienced in the third quarter of 2008 and is caused by the global financial crisis and especially the economic slowdown in the United States, where it is estimated 1.5 million Ecuadorians live and work.

The U.S. employment rate has crashed especially in manufacturing and construction which employ a large number of Ecuadorians.

The same is true in  Spain – where 600,000 Ecuadorians live. this is the second-leading destination for Ecuadorians.

This means that there are more Ecuadorians to serve for less in Ecuador.  This forces the Ecuador cost of living down down.

So if you are an American who is about to be super taxed… where would you choose to live?  Our farm manager sent us this note recently, “We had 4 inches of snow in China Grove.”

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Would you rather live there and pay more tax or…

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enjoy open air dining as Merri and are doing here in our Cotacachi hotel courtyard with Dan Prescher and Suzan Haskins or…

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would you rather enjoy a mountain train ride as these…

multi-currency-investing-florida-course new Cotacachi residents are doing…  passing through green mountains  and blue skies.  Getting a sun burn.

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The is the train from Ibarra to Salinas Ecuador.  Would you rather be taxed extra to be in this pool or…

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be here on Ecuador’s coast with tax advantages?

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Which view will the rich prefer?  This in the US or…

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this… especially if this San Clemente Ecuador ocean view costs much, much less?

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Where would I prefer to walk with my hound?  Here in sub zero temperatures or

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here in Cotacachi Ecuador…especially if I am taxed less and the cost of living is much lower and government interference in my life is less?

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Technology and the global market gives us as individuals enormous power to live where and as we choose that politicians can no longer ignore.

The government’s attitude to increase taxes on those who work hard could turn the existing brain drain from the US into a brain torrent.

In short there are many reasons I see that suggest the economic mess will  last for years in the US,  just as it has in Japan.

Recently, Warren Buffett wrote in his company’s annual report that “the economy will be in shambles, throughout 2009, and, for that matter, probably well beyond.”

This is not the picture we expect of the American dream.  However the picture is not bad for all.  Not all Italians became poor when Rome fell.  Italy is still a great place to live.  There are still millions of Japanese who have thrived over the past 15 years of Japanese recession.  The end of the America dream does not have to be the end of your dream.

In the US we can expect the rich to get richer… the poor poorer.   We can see why from our study of Power Distance Index.  We looked at PDI, and what it is, in a recent message about JGAM’s multi currency seminar.

There is more about Power Distance Index at http://www.clearlycultural.com which says:

Hofstede’s Power Distance Index measures the extent to which the less powerful members of organizations and institutions (like the family) accept and expect that power is distributed unequally. This represents inequality (more versus less), but defined from below, not from above. It suggests that a society’s level of inequality is endorsed by the followers as much as by the leaders.

For example, Germany has a 35 on the cultural scale of Hofstede’s analysis. Compared to Arab countries where the power distance is very high (80) and Austria where it very low (11), Germany is somewhat in the middle. Germany does not have a large gap between the wealthy and the poor, but have a strong belief in equality for each citizen. Germans have the opportunity to rise in society.

On the other hand, the power distance in the United States scores a 40 on the cultural scale. The United States exhibits a more unequal distribution of wealth compared to German society. As the years go by it seems that the distance between the ‘have’ and ‘have-nots’ grows larger and larger.

The trick then is to not accept the PDI from the lower end. Let me explain.

Excerpts from 2007 article by a Stefan Bach , Giacomo Corneo  and Viktor Steiner at www.voxeu.org entitled German income inequality outlines an idea.  The article says:

Paul Krugman frequently mentions that America’s super rich make the 19th Century wealthy look poor. “We know what John D. Rockefeller, the richest man in Gilded Age America, made in 1894 … $1.25 million, almost 7,000 times the average per capita income in the United States at the time.” Krugman wrote. ”But that makes him a mere piker by modern standards … James Simons, a hedge fund manager, took home $1.7 billion, more than 38,000 times the average income.”

Surely such extremes cannot happen on Continental Europe with its social market economics and social solidarity. The authors of Policy Insight No. 4 shows that although income inequality in Germany is a long way from reaching US proportions, the trend is in that direction. Germany rich are getting richer, and its super-rich are getting super-richer.

In other words as a society progresses, those with power get richer while the majority of  the population become poorer.

Note above that power is determined  from below, not from above. It suggests that a society’s level of inequality is endorsed by the followers as much as by the leaders.”

Power is an illusion that keeps most investors and business people depressed while a few gain from this social falsification.

The internet destroys this illusion. The web gives us all power!  Today we have as much opportunity as the rich to gain from the changes that this economic correction will bring.

This is why Merri, our webmaster and I have created a new course on how to build a web business with a webmaster.  More on this in a moment.

First what you can do as an investor or with your own business.

One answer we saw above is to live in a better lower cost environment like Ecuador.

Another answer is to be a multi currency investor. Despite America’s government spending , the dollar has been gaining, particularly against European currencies. The euro slipped to under $1.26, nearing a two-year low and down from a high of almost $1.60. This is caused as fearful investors jump into 10-year Treasury bonds… which have been shown to be terrible long term investments.   All the US government spending means that the US dollar will fall. But against what?

The euro is not a trustworthy currency now. A March 1, 2009 New York Times article by Steven Erlanger and Stephen Castle entitled “Growing Economic Crisis Threatens the Idea of One Europe” explains why.  Here is an excerpt from that article:

The leaders of the European Union gathered Sunday in Brussels in an emergency summit meeting that seemed to highlight the very worries it was designed to calm: that the world economic crisis has unleashed forces threatening to split Europe into rival camps.

With uncertain leadership and few powerful collective institutions, the European Union is struggling with the strains this crisis has inevitably produced among 27 countries with uneven levels of development.

Whether Europe can reach across constituencies to create consensus, however, has been an open, and suddenly pressing, question.

“The European Union will now have to prove whether it is just a fair-weather union or has a real joint political destiny,” said Stefan Kornelius, the foreign editor of the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung. “We always said you can’t really have a currency union without a political union, and we don’t have one. There is no joint fiscal policy, no joint tax policy, no joint policy on which industries to subsidize or not. And none of the leaders is strong enough to pull the others out of the mud.”

Thomas Klau, Paris director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, an independent research and advocacy group, said, “This crisis affects the political union that backs the euro and of course the E.U. as a whole, and solidarity is at the heart of the debate.”

“All of that is in doubt if the cornerstone of the E.U. — its internal market, economic union and solidarity — is in question,” said Ronald D. Asmus, a former State Department official who runs the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund.

If the the euro is a good currency for diversification, which currencies are?

Our multi currency course helps you learn how to diversify into safe currencies.  Our studies currently suggest that the Danish, Swedish, Norwegian kroner and Canadian dollar make sense. For example beginning in March the Swedish kroner hit a new record low. The Eastern European problems are having an adverse impact on the Swedish banks.   Also the Norwegian currency is a good technical buy.

You can join us to understand why these currencies make sense by subscribing to our on line multi currency course.

You can also join us for a currency review at JGAM’s Naples Florida investment course May 29 to 31, 2009.  This course is $499 ($750 for two) but free to those who have subscribed to our on line multi currency course.

Another way you can attend JGAM Florida seminar free is to subscribe to our course on how to have a web based business.   You can enroll in this special course for $299 and attend the JGAM course in Naples free.

Here is a special offer on this course “Tangled Web – How to Have a Web Business“.

Or join us for an upcoming course in North Carolina or Ecuador.

Gary

Future 2009 courses

May 29-31  JGAM Multi Currency investment Seminar Naples Florida

June 12-14 Shamanic Mingo Tour
June 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
June 18-21 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 3-6 Ecuador Import Export Expedition
July 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
July 10-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two

Multi Currency Predictions Feb. 2009


We made several multi currency predictions at our February 2009 International Investing & Business Course in Cotacachi, Ecuador. The investing and business portion concluded yesterday. We are now inspecting Ecuador property.

We used many approaches to process information about how markets and economies might move.

We viewed currencies at the technical level and saw that Jyske Global Asset Management (JGAM) had closed their British pound recommendation.

This is the fine detailed view… the technical end of investing,  Peter Laub of JGAM showed how JGAM had recommended investing in pounds at 1.3750 with a stop loss at 1.3700. Peter explained how the pound dropped to 1.3703 before rising to 1.4500.  JGAM took profit on the backslide to 1.4300.

We looked at economic fundamentals and discussed the February 10, 2009 New York Times article   “Bailout Plan: $2.5 Trillion and a Strong U.S. Hand”  by Edmund  Andrews and Stephen  Labaton  which said:

WASHINGTON — The White House plan to rescue the nation’s financial system, announced on Tuesday by Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary, is far bigger than anyone predicted and envisions a far greater government role in markets and banks than at any time since the 1930s.

Administration officials committed to flood the financial system with as much as $2.5 trillion — $350 billion of that coming from the bailout fund and the rest from private investors and the Federal Reserve, making use of its ability to print money.

We compared the inflationary impact of this bailout with the deflationary impact of a 20% contraction in the $14 trillion economy.  This looks like a wash that could bring an economic balance at the cost of the US dollar’s parity to  other currencies.

We viewed how seasonality was at work. Over 30 years the Dow has frown 8.16%  overall but all of that growth and more (8.36% per annum average)  have come in in the months of November through April. The average annual growth per annum over thirty years in May  to October is only 0.37%.   In other words… history suggests that every day we move closer to May, the chances of a stock market correction in 2009 diminish.

We viewed the economic cycle and saw that we are reaching the phase of the economic cycle when we should be coming out of cash and bonds and into  shares as:

* Interest rates are down.

* There is a rush for liquidity.

* Employment is growing.

* Uncertainty is high.

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We looked at the fact that we have plenty of time… no hurry. We can wait and see.  We have time to choose and pick…  the best bargains and values.

We even looked at how the planets and full moon affect investors. There is a historic link in the general trend of world affairs and the the cycles of Jupiter and Saturn.    History suggests that when  these planets are in a good phase it is been auspicious for the world and vice verse.

The cycles of these planets are about 12 years and 30 years which ties into the market cycles we track.

The chart below shows the historical relationship.

We viewed this chart  from a Maharishi Vedic Astrology prediction by Siebelt Meyera in February 1997.

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The chart is a bit hard to see here so here is what it reads in the troughs:

1914 Start of WW I

1939 Start f WWII

1962 Cuban Crisis

1973 Yom Kippur War

1997 Economic meltdown in Asia

Since 1991, the cycle has been in their downward trends and reached its lowest in 1997 when Jupiter was debilitated, and in 1998 when Saturn will be debilitated. From 1999 onwards the value will slowly and reach a peak value again between 2012 and 2015.  This suggests a slow recovery over the next three years.

All of this confirmed that we should not expect a quick recovery and reconfirmed our recommendation to do nothing now. Maintain a defensive position and wait for opportunity to present itself.

We reviewed my personal portfolio to see how I am doing this.

Liquid Portfolio  Allocation

Cash  23%
Bonds  61%
Shares 16%

Liquid Portfolio Currency Allocation

Brazilian real              4%
Denmark kroner      33%
euro                            31%
British pound          10%
Turkey Lira                8%
US$                           14%

Total Asset Allocation

Cash  21%
Shares 2%
Emerging Shares .5%
Bonds 17.5%
Emerging Bonds  8%
Ecuador Real Estate 9%
US Agricultural Land 12%
Residential Property 10%
Commercial Property 20%

My Cash Currency Breakdown

USD   14%
GBP  4%
Norwegian kroner 1%
Swedish kroner 1%
Other 1%

My Shares

Bank of Florida  .5%
Jyske Bank  .5%
Turkey Equity Fund .5%
European Equity Fund 1%

My Bonds

Swedish Bond Fund  2%
Euro Bond Fund 4.5%
Danish Bond Fund 7%
ELF Aquitain  EUR 4.500% 23.03.2009  1.5%
Caisse D‚Amort Dette  EUR 12.07.2009  1.5%
Rabobank NL    CAD 4.250% 2009           1%

My Emerging Bonds

Hungary Gvt.    HUF 6.250%12.08.2009   1%
Hungary Gvt.    HUF 6.750%12.02.2013     1%
Emerging Market Bond fund  2.5%
European Investment BK TRY Bond  1.5%
Brazil    BRL  12.500% 05.01.2016          1%
China    EUR  1%

My US Real Estate

US Agricultural Land  12%
Residential Property  10%
Commercial Property 21%

My Ecuador Real Estate

Ecuador Andean residential 2%
Ecuador Coastal    5%
Ecuador Agricultural 2%

We also looked at the importance of investing in things we like.

We reviewed real estate investments in Cotacachi and on the Ecuador beach.

Delegates met Ecuador condo owners Bob & Barbara Humphrey. Here is Bob & Barbara at the Ecuador beach.

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Bob & Barbara live in Telluride Colorado in the summer. Bob has retired from his diving business… flies his own plane and races cars (Shelby Cobra).  Barbara is a Feng Shui expert who lectures globally on this subject.

Like many of our readers Bob & Barbara have a condo both in Cotacachi and on the beach at Vistaazul Beach Condos.

We packed incredible amounts of information into three days but had fun as well.

There was plenty of time for delegates to talk and share what they learned.  Here are several delegates talking, US, Australian and Canadian.

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Plus JGAM hosted a Valentine’s Day wine & cheese reception on Saturday night.

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Andean musicians performed.

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There was Andean music… a Conga line began.

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Andean dancers entertained.

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There is an excellent organic vineyard and Swiss cheese factory near Cotacachi.  They are both for sale (the properties) and we are viewing them on today’s real estate tour.  For the party we just enjoyed the products, three excellent Swiss cheeses…

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plus excellent wines.

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The photographers in the group were having fun.

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The youngest delegate was a bit bewildered.

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Here is the key advice from that course.   Hold off. Wait. Do Not hurry. opportunities abound but we have plenty of time to pick them up. There could be another drop in May before a gradual recovery.  Invest with care… but invest with passion. Do things fulfilling as well as profitable. Enjoy the process as well as the end results.

Regards

Gary

Join us in Cotacachi and on Ecuador Coast in March.

Merri, our webmaster and I have created a new course on how to build a web business with a webmaster.  Here is a special offer on this new course.

You can enroll in this special course for $299. However if you sign up for our three courses in March 2009, I will send it to you free. You save $299.

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 10-15 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

March 16-19 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Bob Shane will be at our March courses and will be available to provide health balancing.

Get our web based course FREE if you join us in Ecuador this February or March.

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two

Future 2009 courses

May 29-31  JGAM Global Asset Strategy Seminar

June 12-14 Shamanic Mingo Tour
June 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
June 18-21 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 3-6     Ecuador Import Export Expedition
July 8-9    Imbabura Real Estate Tour
July 10-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 9-11     IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

Nov. 6-8    IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Multi Currency Investing Primer Chpt. 1


Multi  currency investing  and diversification are vital now as a recent message about the potential 2011 economic crisis points out.

Global economic problems have led to many rumors about Ecuador’s financial health.

Regretfully these econmic woes go way beyond Ecuador.  The financial crisis and fundamental financial problems are global.

The 2008 multi currency downturn changed everything.

A 2011 crisis will make events even worse which is why I am updating a course on multi currency investing for my multi currency portfolio subscribers.

Here is an excerpt from lesson one that was sent to multi curre3cny subscribers  today.

* WHAT TO DO NOW: Be a multi currency Investor. This course updates through the year 2012 why all of us are multi currency spenders and should be multi currency investors now. See below.

* MULTI CURRENCY INVESTING SAFETY: Learn who can really protect your wealth. This primer explains important lesson about politics and currencies.

* EZ PROFIT: Increase Earnings Through Leverage.  Diversify in the right currencies first for safety. When you do, your money can gain extra growth.  At times it makes sense to leverage your potential when you borrow low and deposit high.  See why here.

Imagine the room-walnut paneled with carpeting that is deep blue, rich and plush. The table of polished oak is heavy and important, as are the men that sit around it. Tension hangs, thick. A soft hum, steady and calm, perhaps from a heating fan, goes unnoticed in the deathly silence. These men are powerful, but now they are afraid. The fear shows. They fidget, squirm, their faces tight with the tension. Many of them go pale when the man at the head of the table finally speaks. “Gentlemen, the nation is closer to a monetary collapse than we would like to believe.”

This scene sounds like one we would see in a tense melodrama at the movies. Even worse we could imagine that this was real.

Regretfully the statement came from a melodrama that was (and remains) all too real. This scene is not based on fiction but actually took place in the United States of America at the headquarters of one of the most powerful financial institutions in the world, The Federal Reserve Bank. The man speaking was the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan. The statement that the United States is closer to a monetary collapse than we would like to believe, is his and regretfully was then and is still now very, very real.

To make matters most unfortunate, this meeting did not just happen. The statement was made by Mr. Greenspan just after Black Friday, October 1987 when the U.S. stock market crashed.

At that time, Federal Reserve policy makers met and grimly speculated that a run on the dollar might trigger renewed chaos or that consumer confidence might cause a recession. Despite their reassuring public pronouncements, they confessed privately to an inability to foresee the economy’s future with any certainty. Greenspan underscored the seriousness of the situation saying at one point, “The nation is closer to a monetary collapse than we would like to believe.” So great was his concern that the meeting was kept secret, and this information was only revealed more than a decade later.

What is worse, that secret meeting was instrumental in starting a wave of global government interference in financial markets that has continued to this day. This interference dammed the normal waves of world currency and stock market.  This interference created, like a huge dam, a lake of apparent economic calm that masked the turmoil of true currents beneath the placid surface.

The interference has continued and grown into an international  affair, holding back corrections, again and again, until finally in 2008 the dam of global government interference burst.

That secret meeting and the economic rupture 20 years later can be good news for you!  This course explains why the rapids of global economic and currency correction that we are navigating now can help you enhance your wealth.

If you use the 1987 meeting and the 2008 global economic correction as warnings about the enormous currency dangers that exist right now, then that 1987 meeting will have been of great benefit to you. That warning and the lessons in this course can bring you increased safety and immense financial rewards.

My name is Gary Scott. I have been  investing and doing business and  writing about it  for nearly 41 years (I began May 1968).

Since 1971, I have known about and taken advantage of the currency risks created by the public servants who handle government finances.  As was the case with that meeting in 1987, the public is often intentionally misled and kept in the dark for fear that truth will create a negative political consequence.  This course tries to shed as much light on that darkness as it can.

Reading about that secret 1987 meeting had a profound impact on me. We, as investors all over the world, were misled about dangers that could dramatically affect our wealth! This gave me  two realizations that led to two important and urgent facts of investing.

The first realization was that my belief that the U.S. dollar and U.S. monetary system were at extreme risk and had been for nearly a decade was absolutely correct. The global currency system was being held together with little more than a confidence trick. It was clear to see that this system would eventually crash.

The second fact I learned was that we, as investors, will not be forewarned by the government or the large financial institutions. We are on our own.  We must look beyond what our political and major financial institutions tell us. The political system, big banks and brokers have too much at stake. They all fear that the truth about the world’s currency system will create a self-prophesy of doom….as it did in 2008…bringing down some of the largest financial institutions in the world.

The two realizations  led me to create this course nearly 15 years ago. The 2008 crash has led to this update.

Our currency problem is global. The dollar, though under incredible pressure, remains the reserve currency of the world. What will happen when the dollar collapses further?  What will happen to other currencies when the reserves (in dollars) of thousands of non U.S. governments/banks collapse?

This led me to see the urgent importance that exists for global currency diversification and this course will look at ways to diversify now.

Knowledge You Can Use

This course will give you an indepth understanding of currencies, but also will give you many contacts that can further your knowledge. Contacts that you can easily use!

The course format gives information to you in four different ways:

#1: Educational Text
#2: Case Studies
#3: Glossaries
#4: Contacts.

The Contact Section gives you a way to expand the knowledge you gain from the course and allows you to customize what you learn to meet your own particular needs.

In the Contact Section we introduce ways to actually invest in overseas currencies.

The investments and contacts provided in the contacts sections are not recommendations. These are shown for your review and investigation with your financial adviser.   Our goal in including them is to give you a variety of contacts so you can continue learning directly from contacts that may help you put your knowledge to use.

If you plan to do business with any of these contacts you should exercise normal care and caution.    Take the same precautions you would before choosing to do business with any firm. Check and make sure that any firm you do business with is reliable and can provide the services you need with fees that you find acceptable.

2008 taught us that there are no firms we can trust without careful investigation.

Where to Diversify and How Much

One of the main questions to answer when developing a multi currency portfolio for your needs is what percentage of the portfolio should be in cash, in bonds, in equities, in real estate and in commodities.

We’ll use Jyske Bank as our guide through this course so let’ see how they do it.

The three Jyske main portfolio breakdowns are:

Low Risk Multi Currency Portfolio: This s diverisifed Fixed Income 70%,  Equities 20%,  Alternatives 5%,  Cash 5%.

Medium Risk Multi Currency Portfolio: Fixed Income, 40%,  Equities 50%,  Alternatives 5%, Cash 5%.

High Risk Multi Currency Portfolio: Fixed Income  10%, Equities 80%,  Alternatives 5%,  Cash 5%.

So part of the difference between low and high risk is how much cash…stocks and bonds are held in a portfolio.  This is only one aspect of safety, but is an imporant one so here we begin by earnng more about how to hold multi currencies in cash.

In this first contacts section, we look at multi currency ETFs as a way to diversify in cash oriented multi currency investments. Multi currency ETFs  are among the easiest and safest ways to diversify in currencies abroad.

Multi currency ETFs  let investors choose which currencies to hold. They allow complete flexibility getting in and out. These shares also offer a high degree of safety.

In previous years the easiest way to hold cash was to simply open multi currency savings accounts in overseas banks or to invest in multi currency certificates of deposit.

Over the years, global banking regulations have become more complex and more expensive for banks to comply with.  This has forced banks to restrict accounts, raise fees and minimum accounts sizes…making this option difficult or impractical except for larger investors.

Currency ETFs have filled this void.

ETFs are exchange-traded funds. These mutual fund type stocks trade on stock exchanges like a normal stock.

An ETF holds assets such as stocks, bonds or currency deposits. ETFs Are meant to track, rather than beat, their Bellwether  so they trade at about the net asset value of the underlying assets held.

Some ETFs for example track a stock or bond index, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  A Dow Industrial ETF will not try to do better than the Dow. The ETFs role is to equal the movement of the Dow.   A Dow ETF would hold essentially the same shares in the same weighting as the Dow Industrial Index.

The manager of a managed Dow fund would try to do better than the Dow. An ETF anager is simply trying to get the fund’s performance to emulate the Dow.

ETFs are attractive and easy to use as investments because they have low costs, tax efficiency, and stock-like features.

ETFs costs are the brokerage fee to buy and sell them and a management fee.

Each buy and sell is subject to a brokerage commission depending on the broker.

Large investments pay a lower percentage then small.  Investors should compare brokerage firms to see which has the best fee arrangement for the type of investing planned.

Most ETFs also have a low expense ratio. Most charge between 0.1% to 1%.
ETFs are considered no-load investments.

ETFs are also tax efficient.   Investors sell ETFs on the stock market, as they would a stock, so usually realize capital gains when they sell.

Currency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are quite new and make it simpler to invest in multi currency cash.

Currency ETFs allow even small investors to diversify in multi currencies.

This is a great benefit.  The ETF stock-like feature means that investors can carry out the same types of trade on cash investments as they can with stock investments.   ETFs can be sold short, with limit or stop-loss orders,  bought on margin and invested with as much or as little money as desired.  There is no minimum investment.

Currency ETFs  allow investors to invest in euro, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, the Australian dollar and more as shown below.

You can receive the balance of this lesson plus much more as a multi currency investing course subscriber. See why here.

Gary

Join us at a course about multi currecny investing or Ecuador livng in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Jan. 16-21 Ecuador Spanish Course

Jan. 22-23 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

See condos like this in Cotacachi for $46,500.

Ecuador-real-estate-advertising

Jan. 24-27 Coastal Real Estate Tour

See Manta condos like this one. Delegates are inspecting the 1,000+ square foot patio.

Manta-Condo

The patio has this view.

Feb. 9-11 Beyond Logic-Shamanic Mingo

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ

Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 10-15 Ecuador Export Expedition

March 16-19 Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one$1,799 for two

Here is our Ecuador tour schedule for the balance of 2009.

Date                    Course                      Couples Fee

May 21-26  Ecuador Spanish Course         ($999)
May 27-28  Imbabura Real Estate Tour      ($749)

June 12-15  Shamanic Mingo Tour             ($999)
June 16-17  Imbabura Real Estate Tour      ($749)
June 18-21  Coastal Real Estate Tour         ($749)

July 2-7       Ecuador Import Export Expedition ($1,499)
July 8-9       Imbabura Real Estate Tour     ($749)
July 10-13   Coastal Real Estate Tour        ($749)

Sept. 17-22  Ecuador Spanish Course        ($999)
Sept. 23-24  Imbabura Real Estate Tour     ($749)
Sept. 25-28  Coastal Real Estate Tour        ($749)

Oct. 21-26   Ecuador Import Export Expedition ($1,499)

Nov. 6-8       International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador ($999)
Nov. 9-10     Imbabura Real Estate Tour          ($749)
Nov. 11-14   Coastal Real Estate Tour            ($749)

You should normally plan to arrive in Quito two
days before the course.  We will pick you up at the airport, help you
to your hotel in Quito and bring the group to Cotacachi by coach.

For coastal tours we travel as a group from Quito
to Manta by air, then tour the coast for two and a half days returning
to Quito on the evening of the third day.

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one$1,349 for two

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one$1,799 for two

Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our entire schedule of 27 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009.

The course fee includes meeting at Quito airport (day before the
course)…transportation (by group bus) to Cotacachi and back to Quito.
Course fee does not include air are. accommodations, food or individual transportation.

Multi Currency Ideas


Multi currency solutions to inflation are needed.

Inflation will certainly come from the current global economic bailout.

Every multi currency investor needs to mold a personal multi currency solution to meet their specific needs. Whatever individual tactic is used, it will normally work better if it includes multi currency diversification based on a search for multi currency value.

Yesterday’s message Multi Currency Warning looked at seven economic fundamentals that we can relay on during this downwards correction and stated:

The current rush to the US dollar and yen create a monumental opportunity! There will be a time to invest in the very currencies that are tumbling now.

Why am I sure of inflation?

One of the seven multi currency fundamentals (#2) is that: Government involvement in global economics and business may dampen the sharper acceleration of the natural financial rhythm but eventually makes the corrections worse.

A recent article in USA Today covering Alan Greenspan’s testimony to the US Congress said: that the “Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan told angry lawmakers” about his shock.

I wonder? We these angry OR frightened lawmakers? I suspect that a few weeks from election day the better word would have been SCARED.

Fear destroys reason if one is not trained to deal with it. Most of Western society is not trained to deal with fear. William James aptly put it this way.

“In civilized life it has at last become possible for large numbers of people to pass from the cradle to the grave without ever having had a pang of genuine fear. Many of us need an attack of mental disease to teach us the meaning of the word.”

Since politicians are also human beings they too lose reason when they give way to fear. They seem to definitely get a mental disease!

For example what is the cause of today’s economic crisis? Too much debt.

Yet yesterday’s BBC article entitled “Brown defending higher borrowing” says:

“Gordon Brown is defending his plans to increase government borrowing in order to tackle the economic downturn in a speech in London.

The prime minister is telling business leaders it is the right time to boost demand with government spending.

Opposition parties have attacked the current levels of debt, saying Britain is inadequately prepared for recession.

Leading economists have also criticised the government over its spending plans and called for tax cuts instead.

In a letter to a Sunday newspaper, a number of economists warned against an expansion of government spending as a way of stimulating the economy.

They described a focus on public works projects and higher spending as “misguided and discredited”.

The latest quarterly public debt figures hit a record £37.6 billion – higher than the whole of the previous year. Yet Brown said: The responsible course is to borrow now to maintain growth and output.”

I have little doubt that England’s debt will grow…as will America’s, and Europe’s and Japan’s because of…fear.

The borrowed money will be spent by government’s to, as Brown says, “kick start the economy”. The economy will recover but if the fundamental about government inefficiency remans true, it will not recover as it could and should.

The price of this borrowing will be inflation…the loss of purchasing power.

Now here is where frightened politics and politicians get involved.

The same BBC article also said:

“Over the weekend, Mr Brown paid a brief visit to Glenrothes in Scotland as part of a by-election campaign and made predictions food and fuel bills would begin to come down next year.

He also hinted falling oil prices could lead to further co-ordinated interest rate cuts.

“Now inflation is actually coming down over the next few months and that will mean that it gives scope to all the monetary authorities, including the Bank of England, round the world to make a decision about interest rates,” he told the BBC.”

Brown is probably wrong. Inflation will not come down…which is okay for those who know what to do.

Do not be misled. Chances are that Western governments will borrow more than they should. Inflation will follow.

If this belief is correct then the best investments will be shares, commodities and real estate in a diversified basket of strong currencies.

What will make a currency strong?

Fundamentals of currency value (purchasing power potential) include:

A: Interest rate.
B: Inflation rate a three levels – labor – wholesale and consumer prices.
C: Trade balance.
D: Current account.
E: Debt as % of GDP.
F: Debt as % of government income and spending.
G: Amount and velocity of direction in government deficit.

Ideally we want to invest in currencies of countries that offer an interest rate above the local inflation rate, that have a positive trade balance, current account, falling government debt and deficit versus government income.

This combination of qualities in a currency are as rare as hen’s teeth and will become even harder to find during and after this downturn.

As the Western economies stall, their imports will slow. This will slow growth in emerging economies. Governments everywhere will be pressed. Fear will grow. Reason will diminish and government borrowing will increase everywhere.

Inflation will grow. Multi currency investing will become increasingly a relative process….looking for the currencies that are least bad.

I hope to help you fight this inflation with multi currency investing!

Gary

We are studying three multi currency solutions to inflation in our multi currency course. You can subscribe to gain access to these ideas here.

Join us at one of our next to International investing courses in Cotacachi Ecuador this winter.

Learn more about economic safety this November. Join Merri, me, Steve, Kjetil Haugan or Thor Anderson of Vistazul and Peter Conradsen of Jyske Global Asset Management in Cotacachi Ecuador. We’ll review economic conditions, Ecuador real estate, my entire portfolio and investing and business ideas for the months ahead.

Nov 7-9 2008 International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/international-business-made-ez-ecuador

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ

See the wonderful balconies in the Primavera condos at for sale at $46,000 in Cotacachi.

multi-currency-Ecuador-condo-interior

Nov 10-11 Imbabura Real Estate tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-real-estat

Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Then travel to the coast. Enjoy the Vistazul swimming pool on Ecuador’s Pacific.

Picture 9

November 12-15, 2008 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour; Quito Real Estate Tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-coastal-real-estate-tour

See discounts for two or more of these courses and tours

Enjoy Ecuador’s music.

Ecuador-music

Enjoy flowers and beauty.

Ecuador-flowers

Enjoy the friendly staff at our hotel.

international-club

Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our schedule of 26 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009.

Multi Currency Survival Lessons


There are multi currency survival lessons in this last week’s news.

Look at last week’s headlines from several leading financial publications.

A New York Times September 17, 2008 article entitled: “Risk aversion sparks mass flight to bonds” by Rachel Morarjee:

“Bonds are more popular with investors than at any time during the last decade amid a huge flight to safety in turbulent markets, Merrill Lynch’s monthly survey of global fund managers has found.”

Financial Times, Friday, September 19, 2008 entitled: “Stocks soar on rescue hopes”:

“The creation of a giant US government-sponsored vehicle to take on toxic assets looked possible as Treasury secretary Hank Paulson, Fed chief Ben Bernanke and top lawmakers convened a dramatic meeting to discuss the financial crisis. The move sparked sharp stock rallies in Europe and Asia. Regulators in the US and UK moved to curb short-selling of stocks.”

Monday, Sept 22, Wall Street Journal entitled “Stocks plunge amid bailout fears”
by Francesco Guerrera, Henny Sender and Michael Mackenzie in New York and Krishna Guha in Washington:

“The US financial system was shaken by fears that a $700bn government rescue plan might not be enough to end the financial crisis on Monday as stock prices and the dollar tumbled, oil soared and once mighty Wall Street names turned to Japan to safeguard their future.”

This up and down motion in markets is what destroys most multi currency investors. Such up and down news can be hard to ignore but this is exactly what smart multi currency investors do….ignore them.

Yesterday’s message (see it at Multi Currency Trust if you missed it) reviewed the asset allocation of my portfolio.

That review showed how I made very little change in the last year except to add cash and real estate..a plan started BEFORE the crash.

Wise multi currency investors act on fundamental economic principles. Wise multi currency investors do not react to short term market fluctuations. Wise multi currency investors have a set of rules that pertain to reality and integrate reality with their individual circumstances.
Unless one is a trader (a very special occupation that should be practiced by very few) these rules should rarely change during fluctuations.

Here are seven simple multi currency rules that I use. I think they are wise…so far they have worked pretty well for me.

#1: There is always opportunity in value. Look for value in good times and bad. The best value and opportunity is normally found in bad times.

#2: Markets are efficient and dependable long term because they are ruled by universal laws.

#3: Markets are never predictable short term because they are ruled by human emotion.

#4: Times of high performance are followed by times of low performance and vice versa. The current downturn has not only been totally predictable but should have been expected by all.

#5: Always live beneath your means.

#6: Never borrow more than you can afford to lose.

#7: Everything is always in perfect order. Wise multi currency investors focus on spotting that order rather than worry about what they think the order should be.

Here is what is happening and what will happen.

Money should represent production or a change in supply and demand. When money represents production, it is money of value. If a person does something productive, creating a product or service, this creates value.

If supply and demand alters…for example if there are more people and no more land, then the land grows in value.

Money should only be created to represent production or such change.

Yet when markets are overheated, prices rise beyond reasonable value. This creates money without production. When people seemingly become rich because the price (not value) of a share they hold or a house they own skyrockets, this is the creation of money…that is without value.

If left alone, markets correct themselves (see rule #2 above). They rise…then become overpriced…then correct. However when governments intervene and do not allow the correction that should take place, to do so, by creating money without value, then the purchasing power of the money without value falls.

Both US equity and real estate markets have been overpriced. People used the imagined (but not real) value as collateral to borrow money. The borrowed money has been spent buying goods from abroad. This seemingly created more money abroad.

All of this money was not supported by value.

Now the markets are correcting and as the equities and properties return to their real value, the collateral has disappeared. The houses and equities appear to be worth less than they were before. Actually they never were really worth more.

Nevertheless the amount borrowed against them is more than the equity or property is worth. This is called negative equity.

This makes it seem as if money is disappearing. Actually the money never existed.

What should happen is that people who previously appeared to be rich just because they help a property or equity should now lose that appearance. However since these people indebted themselves with their previous appearance, they (nor their lenders) want this appearance of wealth to disappear.

Governments create money so the appearance of wealth remains. Yet no real wealth is created. The money without value that is created loses its purchasing power. This is called inflation.

If just one country is creating money without value (such as the US), a simple investing strategy is to invest into other currencies. However when many countries are creating no value money, there are three places left to invest.. products and services (equities or your own business) …raw materials for products and services (commodities)… or real estate which is required for all business.

We are looking at strategies on how to blend these investments in our Multi Currency Course now. You can subscribe here.

Some property becomes more valuable that others for a variety of reasons.

For example changes in the supply demand fundamentals of oil have enhanced demand for ethanol.  This has altered the supply and demand fundamentals of land that produces food. My belief (in which I am investing) is that this type of land will grow in value.

This is why I have been adding farm land such as our North Carolina farm (a shot of upper meadow is just below) as one of our biggest asset classes. I believe this land will increase in value because it allows those who live on it to produce their own food.

farm colors

This is also why I like land such as these condos being built on Ecuador’s coast.

multi-currency-value-beach-condos

They are very inexpensive (as little as $79,000 for a 1,200 square foot two bedroom, two bathroom unit) and have wonderful sunset views like this.

For details on these condos contact Thor Anderson at thor@sanclementeecuador.com

multi-currency-value-view

Yet I believe that their value will also increase because they are close to the fishermen who still keep their boats on the beach. These boats are right by the condos.

multi-currency-value-fishermen

So I can buy fillets from this dorado or other prime fish for $1 a pound!

multi-currency-value-fish

This is also why like property in the Andes like these 1,200 square foot two and three bedroom and two bathroom condos for as little as $46,000.

multi-currency-value-andean condos

They are surrounded by inexpensive, rich farm land, like this, tilled by low cost farmers…so good fresh food is available. I believe this will enhance the property’s value.

multi-currency-value-real estate

We will also review strategies on how to gain extra opportunity in the current turmoil at our October International Business and investing course next weekend October 3-5, 2008.

Change, as we are seeing taking place now, is not something bad, but  is part of the eternal flow of commerce, the tensions of supply and demand and the torsions created by frequencies that are life itself.   There are always times that destroy some investors and make others rich.  The old guard is aways giving as the new begins to emerge.  All that may differ now is acceleration.  As we saw in yesterday’s message maybe the market will once again bolt upwards.  Perhaps the market will slide more.  This may even become the perfect economic storm.   Whatever happens, it is likely to be choppy and fast…conditions that sink even the best sailors…and investors.

Those who plot a steady course compassed by value and anchored by a recognition of illusion and reality are those who will emerge as the next rich generation of wealth.

Until next message, may every lesson you gain be good.

Gary

I’ll review my entire portfolio and all this thinking next weekend. October 3-5 in North Carolina at our International Investing and Business Course. Why don’t you join me.

The course was fully booked but we had many late applications and have have moved to a larger meeting room so still have space.

Join me with Thomas Fischer of Denmark’s Jyske Global Asset Management, who was a currency trader for years to review our multi currency portfolio thinking for the year ahead.

To help our subscribers meet and learn, we are giving all delegates at the North Carolina course a FREE year’s subscription to our online multi currency course. This is a $249 value.

This will not be all work-no play. We selected this particular weekend as the most likely to be beautiful with the autumnal leaf change. The colors are glorious.

autumn-gold

Here delegates at a previous course chat during a coffee break.

blue-ridge-leaf-change

Gary

Join us in North Carolina next week end October 3-5 and save $249. Enroll here.

Or join us in November to inspect Ecuador property for sale

Vistazul-Ecuador-beach-condos-model

Our September 17-20 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour; Quito Real Estate Tour was sold out as was our September 28-29 Imbabura Real Estate Tour was sold out.

Our Oct 14-18 Ecuador Import Export Course only has a couple of spaces open.
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-import-and-export-tour

We still have space in November

Join us in Cotacachi at El Meson de las Flores.

cotacachi-daybreak

Nov 7-9 International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/international-business-made-ez-ecuador

See these condos at $46,000 in Cotacachi.

Nov 10-11 Imbabura Real Estate tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-real-estat

Dine with delegates at the Vistazul clubhouse.

Ecuador-fishng-view-4

November 12-15, 2008 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour; Quito Real Estate Tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-coastal-real-estate-tour