Tag Archive | "Exchange-traded funds"

Smart Trailing Stops


“Where would the world be like if Euclid had been able to exchange ideas with Albert Einstein or Pythagoras with John Nash?”

See how this question created a powerful investing strategy that can help make sure that you always have enough.

Pythagoras

Pythagoras

Euclid, Pythagoras, Einstein and Nash were four of the greatest mathematicians in history.   They were of different eras.  Euclid and Pythagoras were great, great grandfathers of math.  Einstein and Nash, lived much later.  The latter surely were influenced by the earlier math geniuses, but what might have happened had they all been able to huddle in the same room unleashing a torrent of brilliant formulas, theorems/proofs/ideas that could be used in the economic world?

The benefits to humanity could be untold.

The idea of getting mathematical geniuses together led to a benefit for us as investors trying to cut through the fog of rapid change and a financial industry that is integrity challenged.

Euclid

Euclid

The idea of combing the brilliance of more than one math expert  started me thinking about how I find good value equity investments by following the mathematical analysis of Michael Keppler.  Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked him for over 20 years.  Michael continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Major Stock Market Strategy.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short ups and downs.

My latest report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reviews 10 good value developed markets and 12 good value emerging markets.  According to Keppler’s analyses, an equally-weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance in each of these sectors.

That report recommends dollar cost averaging into 19 ETFs, each investing in the MSCI Index of one of these markets.

einstein

Einstein

Another mathematical approach I have added to my investing armory is TradeStops created and operated by Richard Smith, a math PhD. who has created algorithms that set a Volatility Quotient (VQ) judging how much each share in its data base might rise or fall.   The VQ is used to provide suggested trailing stops.

john nash

John Nash

Thinking of  Euclid, Pythagoras. Einstein and Nash, I asked myself, “What if I combined Keppler’s analysis with Dr. Smith’s TradeStops?

This would help me and my readers using double the mathematical logic to choose when to buy and sell good value investments.

To test this theory, I used TradeStops to measure ETFs that are invested in Keppler Good Value Markets.  Two of the samples I used were iShares MSCI Germany (symbol EWG) and IShares China Large-Cap (Symbol FXI).

A part of the long term strategic trading strategy I use is to invest in low fee, diversified Index ETFs. This simplifies the search for value because it focuses research into simple, easy lumps.  These two ETFs represent investments into two of the largest, most dynamic economies in the world.

The beauty in this approach is that all we have to know is that these are large, dynamic, good value markets  You & I do not have to know much about Germany or China.  You do not have to know anything about any of the shares in these markets or how the stock markets work or are currently moving or anything like that.

What you do know is that the markets are huge players in the global scheme of things and that mathematically now is a good time to invest in them.

We’ll look at why Germany (if a good value market) below but let’s compare China first because it is the world’s second largest economy (maybe even the largest).

The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (symbol FXI) seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of large-capitalization Chinese equities that trade on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The fund generally invests 90% or more of its assets in securities in an index that tracks the performance of the 50 largest companies (that are available to international investors) in the Chinese Equity Market.

A comparison of US versus Chinese Stock Market indexes gives an example of lump research and how to spot good value, low cost, diversified portfolios that offer maximum potential for profit as they reduce risk.

China has long been the world’s largest nation in terms of population.  Its economy has been growing faster than most other large nations.  In February 2011 it formally overtook Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy.  Given China’s higher economic growth rate, it has probably overtaken the US as the world’s largest economy, though statistics have not yet caught up with this fact.

China is one of the world’s top exporters and is attracting record amounts of foreign investment.  In turn, it is investing billions of dollars abroad.  Yet when compared to US shares, Chinese share prices are cheap.

China Stock Market Ratios.  Price to Book 1.61.   Price to Earnings 11.1.  Dividend 2.85.
USA Stock Market Ratios.   Price to Book 2.86.   Price to Earnings 20.0.   Dividend 1.99.

Chinese shares cost much less, compared to the values and earnings, than US shares.  Chinese shares (surprising for an emerging economy) also pay much higher dividends as well.

This is why according to Keppler’s analysis the Chinese Market is good value.

Then I looked at these iShare ETFs via TradeStops.

The iShare Germany ETF (EWG) has a 15.07% VQ.  This means that this share is a low risk market as it is not likely to fall more than 15.07%.   The trailing stop price of this ETF share is currently $26.01.  The price is currently over $30.  If the shares of this ETF drop to $26.01, TradeStops would recommend us to lock in our profits and later recommend when it’s time to invest again.

The China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has a higher VQ of 17.68%.  This is still quite low risk for an emerging market.  The trailing stop price is  $43.39.   The price is currently over $51.  If the shares of the China Large-Cap ETF drops to  $43.39, TradeStops would recommend we lock in our profits and later recommend when its time to invest again.

TradeStops uses a new algorithm called “Smart Trailing Stops 2.0” (STS 2.0).  STS 2.0 is a step up from the typical trailing stop practice.  The difference is that STS 2.0 uses an automatically-detected “Best High Price from the Past” rather than using your entry date and entry price as the initial point from which to trail the stop.

A best high is a better indicator of value than your investing price because it relies on the dynamics of the market instead of our personal investing activity.  This is a better way to stop from buying high and selling low.

STS 2.0 sometimes “stops out” a share sooner than we might expect but having a best high, rather our investment price as the prime calculator, is a huge advance.

Dr. Smith’s smart trailing stops have always been based upon the concept of the normal expected volatility range for a stock  (the VQ).  Smart Trailing Stops 2.0 adds the benefit of automatically identifying the best high closing price from which to trail the stop.

This is valuable information!  The fact that the STS 2.0 algorithm stops out a share is a red flag that the stock is not behaving normally as it has recently suffered a relatively severe correction.  This gives us an early warning.

This allows us to maximize profits without leaving a good value platform and without having to know about or track any of the specific underlying shares!

Together, the combined mathematical expertise of Keppler and Smith give us a new powerful investing dynamic.  We can be intelligent and clever by letting mathematical wisdom aim us at good value investments and then protect our profits with mathematically sound trailing stops.

If I were given a day to spend with Pythagoras, Euclid, Einstein and Nash, I doubt that I would gain a thing, except maybe a headache.  I am no mathematician!

I am, however, an investor with almost 50 years experience and know that the best investing strategies are based on numbers rather than stories.  The most profitable long term investments are made with logic rather than emotion.

Keppler’s and Smith’s hard efforts combined with technology mean that all of us can gain from their mathematical wisdom, when it comes to investing.  All we have to do is be able to turn on our computers and let the numbers shape our investing for us.

Learn how to use TradeStops here.

Learn more about why and the best way to invest in Keppler’s good value markets below.

Gary

The Ultimate Investing Secret

The ultimate investing secret is the simple fact that investment opportunities come and go in cycles.  

Because we have been watching the trends for decades, we spot many distortions  we saw decades ago as they create repeat opportunities.  For example, our 1986 report “The Silver Dip” showed readers how to turn $250 into over $45,000 in a year.   When we spotted the same repeat distortion in silver’s price in 2015, we issued our report “Silver Dip 2015”.   Those who acted on the report made as much as 200% in 2016.

There is another phenomenal distortion that has been building for a number of years.   Here is how I (and you can as well) am cashing in on this trend.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.

Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Now I see those circumstances headed our way again.

The Dow Jones Industrial recently soared past 20,000 and reached an all time high.   So why aren’t average investors all rich?   There are several answers.  First, even though the Dow has peaked, for the last 17 years the US stock market has been in a bear trend.  You’ll see why in a moment.  Another reason why the investors have not done so well is because of currency loss.

One final reason why profits have not been so good.  Someone, probably someone you trust, has been stealing from you.

One of the biggest obstacles in profiting from the upcoming circumstances has been and remains the financial system.  The reality is that banks and brokers have been structuring investments that are sure to lose.  They sell you on these investments and then another division of the very same bank (or broker) that recommended the investment, bets against you.   The bank knows that the investment is toxic.  To add insult to injury, many of these same institutions cheat you on the way in and the way out (when you buy and sell a share) of the bad investment.  Most brokers and bankers are interested in your money making them rich, not in helping increase your wealth.

Three Patterns Create 50% profits.

Despite the predators on Wall Street who are waiting to take big gouges out of your savings and wealth, equities are still the best place to invest for the long term.  This chart from the 24 page Keppler Asset Management Asset Allocation Review shows that over the past 80+ years equities have dramatically outperformed other types of investments.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

Good investments require a relentless search for value.   Your investments have to be good enough to reap an outstanding profit even after the parasites siphon off their part.

To take advantage of the once every 17 year circumstances, I chose to track Keppler Asset Management who continually researches developed and emerging markets globally.  Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisors.  Keppler compares the value of each share in each market based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  From this study of monumental amounts of data Keppler develops a Good Value Stock Market Strategies.  The analysis is based on long term, rational, mathematical facts and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

From Keppler I learned that market timing is not the way to get these high profits.  Another graphic from the Keppler Asset Allocation Review explains why.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

A dollar invested 88 years ago in Treasury bills rose to $20.58.  The same dollar invested in U.S. stocks over the 88 years grew to be was worth $4,677, UNLESS you missed the best 43 months.  Literally all of the the Dow’s growth in 1,056 months came in 43 of those months.   Your odds have been one in 24, better than roulette perhaps, but not good enough.  Plus even after these odds, the predators are going to take their cut.  You have to ask, “Am I that good at timing?”

The better alternative to timing is to invest in long term indexing based on value.  Long term strategic investing in market indices reduces the amount of trading.  Low trading activity is important because trades are where investors are most vulnerable to predatory tactics.

A part of the long term strategic trading is to invest in low fee diversified Country Index ETFs.  This simplifies the search for value because it focuses research into lumps.

A comparison of US versus German stock market indexes gives an example of lump research and you can create good value, low cost, diversified portfolios that offer maximum potential for profit as they reduce risk.

Keppler’s research shows that Germany’s stock market is a good value market.  Keppler lumps all the shares (or at least 85% of the shares) into the calculations.  There is no attempt to select any one specific share.  Keppler’s research shows that the US stock market index (a lump of about 85% of all the US shares) is now a poor value.

Germany has the world’s fourth largest economy.  The country is the third largest exporter in the world and has recorded some of the highest trade surplus in the world making it the biggest capital exporter globally.  Yet German shares have been overlooked.  German share prices are good value.

For example, recently the German Stock Market had a relative price to book value ratio of  .78,  a relative price earnings ratio of  0.87 and a relative dividend yield of 1.12.  The US Stock Market has a much higher relative price to book value ratio of 1.29, a relative price earnings ratio of 1.07 and a relative dividend yield of 0.81.  German shares cost much less, compared to the values and earnings.  German shares pay much higher dividends as well.

Keppler predicts that the US Stock Market (which is ranked as a sell market by Keppler) will have an annual index gain for the next five years of  3.1% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 21.7%.  The same calculations for the German Market predicts an average annual index gain over the next five years of 7.5% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 47.3%.

Which would you rather buy,  a 47.3% return sold for 78 cents on the dollar or a 21.7% return sold for $1.29 on the dollar?

You can forget about any specific share in the US or Germany and invest into an index (in this case the Morgan Stanley Capital Index) which represents about 85% of all the shares traded on the exchange.

You can invest in ETFs that passively invest in all the shares of the index in stock markets that offer good value.  iShares investment company for example has  an ETF that invests in 85% of the shares traded on Wall Street.

ishres

This ETF is called the iShares USA (symbol EUSA) and in this example rose from $22.91 to $43.40 or 89% in the past five years.

iShares also offers an ETF that invests in about 85% of the stocks listed on the German Stock Exchange (Symbol EWG).  EWG rose  from $19.70 to $28.13  or 42% in the past five years.

ishares

Keppler’s lump research shows that Germany is a good value market.   One simple (even very small) investment in iShares Germany MSCI Index ETF gives you a portfolio  of almost all the shares traded on Germany’s largest stock exchange in Frankfurt.  This ETF is a share traded on the New York Stock Exchange.  The ETF invests in 85% of the shares in Germany.  This ETF is a passive fund that does not try to outperform the growth of the German Stock Market.  The managers simply track the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index.  The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the German Index which is composed of the stocks of 54 different German companies and covers about 85% of all the German equities.  Germany’s ten largest companies compose about 60% of the index.  These ten companies are:  BAYER (Health Care) composes 9.91% of the index – SIEMENS (Industrials) 7.89% – DAIMLER (Consumer Discretionary) 7.04% – BASF (Materials)  6.81% – ALLIANZ (Financials) 6.65% – SAP STAMM (Info Tech) 5.69% – DEUTSCHE TELEKOM (Telecom Srvcs) 4.46% – DEUTSCHE BANK NAMEN  (Financials) 3.66%  – VOLKSWAGEN VORZUG (Consumer Discretionary) 3.18% – BMW STAM (Consumer Discretionary)  3.15%.

You lump your research.  You lump your investment.  This makes it easy to capture the powerful economic circumstances that are unfolding now.

Just investing in Germany is not enough.  There are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.   Plus there are 11 good value emerging markets.  With even a couple of thousand dollars you can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

Investing in many stock markets through ETFs gives you opportunity in the second pattern of the falling US dollar.  Preserving the purchasing power of your savings and wealth requires currency diversification.

The strength of the US dollar over recent years is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   In 1980, the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern has been growing, is seriously overdue and could create up to 50% extra profit if you start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

For example because of fears about the euro, EWG, the German ETF dropped 9 percent in 12 months.  These declines are created by currency concerns.  When the euro regains strength, the shares have the potential to appreciate even more.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but includes links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hot the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

I look forward to the next 17 years and sharing how to have more than enough money for the rest of your life.

Gary

 

Equity Shift Nearer


The equity market shifts that value analysis have predicted may be starting to steamroll a bit.  This process will be helped by negative return European bonds.   Last week in the Wall Street Journal article, “European bond markets go down the rabbit hole” said:  Europe is no stranger to the avant-garde, the experimental and the absurd.  But until now, they have largely been the preserve of the arts. Now the financial world—and in particular the bond market—is increasingly challenging fundamental tenets of investing.  Take last week as an example. Switzerland became the first sovereign to issue a 10-year bond carrying a negative yield, raising 232.5 million Swiss francs ($237.2 million) with investors paying for the privilege of lending.  And German yields continued to grind deeper into negative territory: yields on eight-year bonds briefly dipped below zero, while the two-year yield stands at minus 0.277%.

There are some good points about European banking however, such as getting to visit great cities and great institutions like the Austrian cafes.

austrian banking

Cafe Lantmann Vienna, one of our favorite cafes.  More on this in a minute.

ENR Asset Management’s  April 2015 Market Outlook shows some additional reason why European shares offer good value and more immediate opportunity now.  The Outlook said:  “The first quarter (Q1) proved challenging for global equities. After outpacing bonds the first two months of the year, the MSCI World Index struggled the latter half of March as earnings, fears, soft U.S. economic data, Middle East tensions and interest rate uncertainty drove investors out of risk assets.

“The S&P 500 Index, red- hot over the past several years, has succumbed to more volatility and trails Europe, our prime regional recommendation heading into 2015, logged its strongest quarter in local currency terms since 2008; in dollar terms, European equities edged-out the S&P 500 Index, Over the past eighteen months, U.S. investor sentiment has remained overly exuberant, pointing to a major sell-off or an imminent correction.

“The worldwide sell-off in late March should come as no surprise. Investors should continue to purchase high quality dividend-paying global multi- nationals on any intermittent decline. The land-scape for earnings has shifted to Europe in 2015 largely because of a weak EURO and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) asset purchase program. Investors should focus on building new and existing positions in euro-zone large-caps and small-caps.

“Over the last few months we’ve made the case that European investors would gradually shift out of fixed-income securities and into stocks amid ultra-low interest rates. Europe has been the prime beneficiary of this asset allocation shift supported by an assertive ECB. Roughly 50% of the euro-zone bond market now yields a negative rate of interest on sovereign debt up to five years in some markets, including Germany.

“The U.S. Dollar Index hit a fresh 12-year high earlier in Month but has since started a modest correction. According to Wisdom Tree, European smaller companies sell at 16.8 times trailing earnings and filed about 3.5% in dividends. That’s better value than the S&P 600 Index, which has already recorded substantial profits since the financial crisis low six years ago and trades at lofty levels.

“Also, European small-caps should post better than earnings this year compared to larger companies.

“Why we like European Small-Caps now:

* Dividends are more than three times greater compared to U.S. small-caps

* U.K. small-caps have trailed other smaller company indices

* The ECB’s new QE program will boost liquidity

* Institutional investors have yet to pile into European small-caps

“We’re big fans of Wisdom Tree. The ETF (exchange- traded-fund) sponsor and manager is a value and income-based ETF specialist, focusing mainly on sectors of the global market that offer deep value, dividends or a combination of both.

“Historical studies also clearly point to value investing clearly outpacing growth strategies over time.”

The entire April 2015 ENR market Outlook is at enrassetmanagement.com

Our reports over the past year (and Merri’s and my personal investments) have focused on this European equity value.  For decades, I used three banks and brokers to execute long term value opportunities like this.  Jyske Bank (Copenhagen), Smith Williamson (London) and Valartis, (Vienna).

Regretfully last year, Smith Williamson stopped accepting US residents.  Now I regret that Jyske Bank has also announced that they will stop serving US customers this July.

I transferred my Smith and Williamson London account to a local (U.S) community bank that has the ability to buy and sell and hold overseas equities and bonds.  I have transferred my Jyske account holdings to Valartis Bank AG.

The roots of Valartis Bank AG (Austria) go back to 1890 when it opened for business in Vienna. The bank remained privately owned until 1966 when it was purchased by Nicholas Deak who changed the name to Bankhaus Deak. I began banking with Bankhaus Deak in the early 1980s and over the years watched several new owners change the name several times.  In 1988 Royal Trust Bank of Canada became the owner and the Bank became Royal Trust Bank Vienna.  The name changed again in 1995 when Anglo Irish Bank of Ireland purchased the bank.

In 2008 the Valartis Group AG., a publicly traded Swiss holding company, purchased the bank, and Anglo Irish Bank (Austria) AG was renamed Valartis Bank (Austria) AG.   The staff  during this entire time has remained truly multicultural, speaking 22 different languages.

London, Copenhagen and Vienna are three of Merri’s and my favorite European cities and we’ll deeply miss the banking connection and our banking friends in London and Copenhagen, but we are happy that Vienna is still offering to serve US clients.

The pleasures of Vienna go beyond banking.  Volartis Bank in Vienna bank is located just around the corner from Cafe Landtmann a Viennese institution since 1873. Merri and I always enjoy a sidewalk Grosser Brauner with Apple Strudel mit Schlag.  We are in good company there!  Landtmann has hosted regulars over the years such as: Peter Altenberg, Sigmund Freud, Gustav Mahler, Max Reinhardt, Marlene Dietrich, Romy Schneider, Burt Lancaster, Hans Moser, the Dutch Queen Juliane and Sir Paul McCartney.

For more information about how to use ENR Asset Management to bank with Valartis Bank in Vienna contact Thomas Fischer at Thomas@enrasset.com

There are always things we do not know, but one of the safest ways to gain profit and avoid loss is to follow value, which at this time is in European shares.

Gary

(1) WSJ.com European bond markets go down the rabbit hole

 

Not All ETFs Are Equal


Our latest report shows ways to get good low cost, global, good value diversification with ETFs.   Like all investments not all ETFs are of equal value.   As the popularity of ETFs grow, so too do the introduction of vogue ETFs that do not represent such great value.

One readers sent this excellent question about ETFs:  Hi Gary,  thanks for the interesting report.  At first glance I believed the idea of ETFs to be a great opportunity, however, after a deeper look it seems the parasites are having their way with ETF investors as well.  I am not sure about all of the ways in which the bankers fix ETFs to their favor but, for example, I see that some ETFs don’t rise as much as the index they are tracking rises, and falls further when that index falls.   Also, with an ETF your investment is only as good as the ultra leveraged derivative bets made by the investment bank that issues them.  So if that investment bank goes bust, your investment probably will too.  In other words, by purchasing an ETF issued by Morgan Stanley you are taking on some of the risk that Morgan Stanley remains solvent and that the entire derivatives market remains liquid.  Unlike holding real shares of real corps in Germany, for example, that are tied directly to the solvency and liquidity of those businesses.

The title of this message, “Not All ETFs are Created Equal” is the first answer to this question.   Four websites are linked below to help clarify this fact.  Like all investment types there are different horses for different courses.

Here are a few points to help each reader decide if ETFs are good for their financial strategy and if so, which ETFs are the right ones.

To begin we need to remember the overlying rule of all investments, “Caveat Emptor”, buyer beware.  A better phrase is “Buyer Be Aware”.   We need to be sure we understand the strategy of the specific ETFs we invest in. We need to look inside the ETF to see what shares are held in its portfolio.  ETFs are required to disclose their portfolio on a  daily basis at the fund’s website.

We need to read the prospectus carefully to understand the investment strategy of the ETF as this can have a significant impact on, income, tax and timing of profits.

Some ETFs use cap-weighted baskets of securities, others use fundamental-weighted baskets, and some even use derivative products.  There are even some now that use an active or quasi-active management style.  Each investment approach carries with it very different risk/return profiles and tax consequences.

Many index ETFs look the same, but operate very differently.  Review risks, costs and timing with your advisor to be sure that the ETFs you choose fits your specific situation.  ETFs are a hybrid of stock and mutual fund.  As a mutual fund, good ETFs have very low fees, but as stocks their price is ruled by supply and demand. ETF market prices can differ from net asset value.  We want to avoid buying ETFs at a premium (price much higher than net asset value).

The purchase of an ETF creates a brokerage commission every time it is bought or sold.  Brokerage commissions are usually fixed from a few dollars per trade to $20 a trade.  The more we buy at one time the lower the cost as a percentage of the investment.  This favors larger lump-sum investments and means that dollar cost averaging in small investments should be avoided.  The transaction costs can hurt a dollar-cost averaging in small amounts.  Larger quarterly or semi annual investments may be better than small monthly purchases.

We should consider the total costs before investing.  An expense ratio tells how much an ETF costs.   The expense ratio doesn’t include the brokerage commissions.

The average ETF has an expense ratio in the 0.50%, which means the fund will cost you $5.00 in annual fees for every $1,000 invested.  The best bet for small investors is to use online brokers that charge low or no commissions, IF the ETFs they offer fit our needs.  We look for brokers who offer what we need.  Smaller brokerage firms may have a limited selection of ETFs.

We look for the most widely-used and easy to trade ETFs for safety and to reduce buy and sell spreads.  Many ETFs that track long-standing indexes such as the S&P 500 have stood the test of time.  Many new ETFs stretch the definition of indexing.   Be careful of new indexes that track unusual segments of the market.   Avoid newfangled ETFs unless you understand them well.  Beware of leveraged ETFs. These investments are usually composed of derivative instruments and aim to provide investors with daily performance that tracks the underlying index (including leverage).  These are helpful for professional traders making bets on a daily basis, but ordinary investors should avoid them.

We need to be careful of thinly traded ETFs.  We can usually sell an ETF at any time during the trading day, but the growing number of narrowly-focused and exotic ETFs have not passed the test of time and many are more expensive.

We avoid these funds unless we really know what we are doing and the ETF specifically fits our strategy.   Passively managed ETFs are designed to track an index. Actively managed ETFs permit the fund manager to buy and sell securities and derivatives according to a stated strategy, described in  the prospectus.   A benefit of index ETFs is they are transparent and are not dependent on a fund manager who might lose his touch, retire or quit.  The exotic and managed ETFs do not provide this benefit.

ETFs can be sold short and many have related options contracts, which allow investors to control large numbers of shares with less money than if they owned the shares outright.  These positions can create short term aberrations in the ETF share price so we check them out.

Esoteric ETFs can have low trading volume and larger spreads which increases cost and volatility. Avoid a liquidity problem, by using larger funds that have proven themselves.  We avoid this problem by looking for substantial assets and large daily trading volume.

Here is a summation of what Merri and I do and you may want to do as well.  We look for two types of ETFs.  One is passive ETFs that fit into our strategy of investing in good value markets around the world.  The second are active ETFs that focus on high income, good value shares in good value markets.  We dollar cost average on a quarterly basis to keep buying commission costs down.  We buy long term positions to keep tax and selling costs down.   We look for ETFs in these two categories, that have low expense rations, large portfolios and high trying volume.

Gary

(1) New York Stock Exchange  What you should know about ETFs

(2) www.dailyfinance.com  10 rules before investing in ETFs

(3) CNCB- ETFs – what you should know

(4) Wall Street Journal How to Choose an ETF

The Ultimate Investing Secret

The ultimate investing secret is the simple fact that investment opportunities come and go in cycles.  

Because we have been watching the trends for decades, we spot many distortions  we saw decades ago as they create repeat opportunities.  For example, our 1986 report “The Silver Dip” showed readers how to turn $250 into over $45,000 in a year.   When we spotted the same repeat distortion in silver’s price in 2015, we issued our report “Silver Dip 2015”.   Those who acted on the report made as much as 200% in 2016.

There is another phenomenal distortion that has been building for a number of years.   Here is how I (and you can as well) am cashing in on this trend.

“If I Live Long Enough, I’ll really cash in next time”.    I made this promise to myself in the 1980s.   A remarkable set of economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  I invested as much as I could handle then as the profits rolled in for about 17 years.

Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffet explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Now I see those circumstances headed our way again.

The Dow Jones Industrial recently soared past 20,000 and reached an all time high.   So why aren’t average investors all rich?   There are several answers.  First, even though the Dow has peaked, for the last 17 years the US stock market has been in a bear trend.  You’ll see why in a moment.  Another reason why the investors have not done so well is because of currency loss.

One final reason why profits have not been so good.  Someone, probably someone you trust, has been stealing from you.

One of the biggest obstacles in profiting from the upcoming circumstances has been and remains the financial system.  The reality is that banks and brokers have been structuring investments that are sure to lose.  They sell you on these investments and then another division of the very same bank (or broker) that recommended the investment, bets against you.   The bank knows that the investment is toxic.  To add insult to injury, many of these same institutions cheat you on the way in and the way out (when you buy and sell a share) of the bad investment.  Most brokers and bankers are interested in your money making them rich, not in helping increase your wealth.

Three Patterns Create 50% profits.

Despite the predators on Wall Street who are waiting to take big gouges out of your savings and wealth, equities are still the best place to invest for the long term.  This chart from the 24 page Keppler Asset Management Asset Allocation Review shows that over the past 80+ years equities have dramatically outperformed other types of investments.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

Good investments require a relentless search for value.   Your investments have to be good enough to reap an outstanding profit even after the parasites siphon off their part.

To take advantage of the once every 17 year circumstances, I chose to track Keppler Asset Management who continually researches developed and emerging markets globally.  Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds such as State Street Global Advisors.  Keppler compares the value of each share in each market based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  From this study of monumental amounts of data Keppler develops a Good Value Stock Market Strategies.  The analysis is based on long term, rational, mathematical facts and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

From Keppler I learned that market timing is not the way to get these high profits.  Another graphic from the Keppler Asset Allocation Review explains why.

keppler

Click on image to enlarge.

A dollar invested 88 years ago in Treasury bills rose to $20.58.  The same dollar invested in U.S. stocks over the 88 years grew to be was worth $4,677, UNLESS you missed the best 43 months.  Literally all of the the Dow’s growth in 1,056 months came in 43 of those months.   Your odds have been one in 24, better than roulette perhaps, but not good enough.  Plus even after these odds, the predators are going to take their cut.  You have to ask, “Am I that good at timing?”

The better alternative to timing is to invest in long term indexing based on value.  Long term strategic investing in market indices reduces the amount of trading.  Low trading activity is important because trades are where investors are most vulnerable to predatory tactics.

A part of the long term strategic trading is to invest in low fee diversified Country Index ETFs.  This simplifies the search for value because it focuses research into lumps.

A comparison of US versus German stock market indexes gives an example of lump research and you can create good value, low cost, diversified portfolios that offer maximum potential for profit as they reduce risk.

Keppler’s research shows that Germany’s stock market is a good value market.  Keppler lumps all the shares (or at least 85% of the shares) into the calculations.  There is no attempt to select any one specific share.  Keppler’s research shows that the US stock market index (a lump of about 85% of all the US shares) is now a poor value.

Germany has the world’s fourth largest economy.  The country is the third largest exporter in the world and has recorded some of the highest trade surplus in the world making it the biggest capital exporter globally.  Yet German shares have been overlooked.  German share prices are good value.

For example, recently the German Stock Market had a relative price to book value ratio of  .78,  a relative price earnings ratio of  0.87 and a relative dividend yield of 1.12.  The US Stock Market has a much higher relative price to book value ratio of 1.29, a relative price earnings ratio of 1.07 and a relative dividend yield of 0.81.  German shares cost much less, compared to the values and earnings.  German shares pay much higher dividends as well.

Keppler predicts that the US Stock Market (which is ranked as a sell market by Keppler) will have an annual index gain for the next five years of  3.1% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 21.7%.  The same calculations for the German Market predicts an average annual index gain over the next five years of 7.5% and a total return (with dividends) or a total five year return of 47.3%.

Which would you rather buy,  a 47.3% return sold for 78 cents on the dollar or a 21.7% return sold for $1.29 on the dollar?

You can forget about any specific share in the US or Germany and invest into an index (in this case the Morgan Stanley Capital Index) which represents about 85% of all the shares traded on the exchange.

You can invest in ETFs that passively invest in all the shares of the index in stock markets that offer good value.  iShares investment company for example has  an ETF that invests in 85% of the shares traded on Wall Street.

ishres

This ETF is called the iShares USA (symbol EUSA) and in this example rose from $22.91 to $43.40 or 89% in the past five years.

iShares also offers an ETF that invests in about 85% of the stocks listed on the German Stock Exchange (Symbol EWG).  EWG rose  from $19.70 to $28.13  or 42% in the past five years.

ishares

Keppler’s lump research shows that Germany is a good value market.   One simple (even very small) investment in iShares Germany MSCI Index ETF gives you a portfolio  of almost all the shares traded on Germany’s largest stock exchange in Frankfurt.  This ETF is a share traded on the New York Stock Exchange.  The ETF invests in 85% of the shares in Germany.  This ETF is a passive fund that does not try to outperform the growth of the German Stock Market.  The managers simply track the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index.  The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the German Index which is composed of the stocks of 54 different German companies and covers about 85% of all the German equities.  Germany’s ten largest companies compose about 60% of the index.  These ten companies are:  BAYER (Health Care) composes 9.91% of the index – SIEMENS (Industrials) 7.89% – DAIMLER (Consumer Discretionary) 7.04% – BASF (Materials)  6.81% – ALLIANZ (Financials) 6.65% – SAP STAMM (Info Tech) 5.69% – DEUTSCHE TELEKOM (Telecom Srvcs) 4.46% – DEUTSCHE BANK NAMEN  (Financials) 3.66%  – VOLKSWAGEN VORZUG (Consumer Discretionary) 3.18% – BMW STAM (Consumer Discretionary)  3.15%.

You lump your research.  You lump your investment.  This makes it easy to capture the powerful economic circumstances that are unfolding now.

Just investing in Germany is not enough.  There are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.   Plus there are 11 good value emerging markets.  With even a couple of thousand dollars you can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these countries with Country Index ETFs.

Investing in many stock markets through ETFs gives you opportunity in the second pattern of the falling US dollar.  Preserving the purchasing power of your savings and wealth requires currency diversification.

The strength of the US dollar over recent years is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   In 1980, the dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern has been growing, is seriously overdue and could create up to 50% extra profit if you start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

For example because of fears about the euro, EWG, the German ETF dropped 9 percent in 12 months.  These declines are created by currency concerns.  When the euro regains strength, the shares have the potential to appreciate even more.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”  This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but includes links to 153 pages of Keppler Asset Stock Market and Asset Allocation Analysis so you can keep this as simple or as complex as you desire.

The report shows 22 good value investments and a really powerful tactic to use that allows you to accumulate these bargains now even in very small amounts (even $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

Research shows that most people worry about having enough money if they live long enough.   I never thought of that.   I just wanted to live long enough to see the remarkable economic opportunity that started in 1980 come again so I could hot the jackpot.  This powerful profit wave has begun.  I have made the investment myself  suggest you investigate this in my report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”

Order the report here $29.95

My Guarantee

Order now and I’ll email the online report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” in a .pdf  file right away. 

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.  If you are not totally happy, simply let me know within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

You can keep “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”  as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Order the report here $29.95

I look forward to the next 17 years and sharing how to have more than enough money for the rest of your life.

Gary

 

Contrasts Eliminate Wooden Profits


Contrasts that show value suggest we should look at investing in wood.  Here is a distortion that may lead to profit.

Since June 2008 when the US stock market crashed, the Dow Jones Industrial has risen 37.90%.

wood chart finance.yahoo

Click on charts to enlarge

The S&P 500 index has risen 37.64%

S&P chart finance.yahoo

In the same period the Wood Index has risen 7.33%

dow chart finance.yahoo

Since the price of wood is such an important element in the recovery of the global economy we should expect timber shares to rise at a rate at least similar to the Dow or S&P. If this assumption is true, then wood represents great value now.

A recent Wall Street Journal article entitled “U.S. Company Targets Australian Timber” by Daniel Stacey suggests this is true.

Here is an excerpt:  Not long ago, overseas forestry companies were snapping up businesses and entire timber districts in Australia with the glee of mythical lumberjack Paul Bunyan.

Now, San Francisco-based New Forests Pty. is planning a new wave of deals, targeting up to $1.7 billion Australian dollars (US$1.5 billion) of the country’s state-owned pine forests ahead of an expected surge in demand from China and the U.S.

The company Monday said it had closed a new A$707 million investment fund for timber assets in Australia and New Zealand. It pulled in A$490 million in a similar fundraiser four years ago that it used to buy privately owned forests and sawmills. New Forests Chief Executive David Brand told The Wall Street Journal he planned to use the new war chest to target 250,000 hectares of plantations owned by the New South Wales and Western Australia state governments—even though they may be unwilling to sell.

Most of the state-owned forests were planted after World War II, amid a panic over timber shortages after large swaths of domestic softwood were felled to build military installations, and later for reconstruction. Australian forests now provide far too much softwood for the domestic market.

Companies such as New Forests and rivals like U.S. investment fund Global Forest Partners in recent years were lured to Australia by a once-in-a-lifetime pipeline of deals after many of the nation’s private plantation companies collapsed following a disastrous flirtation with a tax-shrinking strategy.

Here are three ways to invest in wood.

iShares Global Timber & Forestry (WOOD).  This NADQ traded ETF seeks to track the S&P Global Timber & Forestry IndexTM, which is comprised of about 25 of the largest publicly-traded companies engaged in the ownership, management or upstream supply chain of forests and timber lands.  See details of S&P wood at the link below.

Guggenheim Timber ETF (CUT).  This  NYSE traded ETF invests in the shares that are in the Beacon Global Timber Index.  This index is composed of global timber companies who own or lease forested land and harvest the timber from such forested land for commercial use and sale of wood-based products, including lumber, pulp or other processed or finished goods such as paper and packaging.  See details of CUT at the link below

TFS Corp.  This is one of the few Australian plantation companies that did not collapse due to the disastrous flirtation with a tax-shrinking strategy.  TFS owns and manages East Indian Sandalwood plantations in Australia. The shares are up 605% since the company began.

tfs finance.yahoo chart

TFS Corp. shares are traded on the Australian Stock Exchange and have risen 46% since late January when we first recommended these shares and released the Sandalwood Investing Report.

tfs finance.yahoo chart

You can also order the Sandalwood Investing Report. Though the shares are up over 50% in the last month this share has plenty of built-in value with potential for a $10 price over the next 10 years.

Screen shot 2014-01-28 at 5.28.13 PM

You can learn all about the value of a TFS sandalwood share investment in the Sandalwood Investing Report at  Amazon.com

The Primer on Value Investing

“The Intelligent Investor” written by Benjamin Graham and Jason Zweig with Warren Buffet as a collaborator is the classic book on value investing.  This investment book outlines no-fail value strategies without gimmicks. The book is filled with wisdom about investing.

Intelligent Investor

You can order this at Amazon.com here.

Spotting economic contrast and trends that create value is a sure way that investments and savings can grow faster than the loss of purchasing power.  Ignore what the market is doing. Examine instead the potential value.

How to Gain With Multi Currency Value Investments

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

 

 

 

iShares Global Timber & Forestry (WOOD)

Guggenheim Timber ETF (CUT

WSJ article U.S. Company Targets Australian Timber by Daniel Stacey

Urgent Multi Currency Diversification


We looked at the urgent need for multi currency diversification in last weekend’s International Investing & Business Seminar.

gary scott seminar

One delegate wrote: Dear Gary and Merri,  Thank you for the wonderful seminar on International Investing & Business!  Every part of the weekend stimulated my thinking and understanding, and I came home inspired and ready to work.

At the seminar we looked at seven reasons why the US dollar is in a precarious position similar to five years after the 1980s recession when it suffered a tremendous fall as shown in this chart from Grandfather.com.

gary scott seminar

Chart from Grandfather.com Economic Reports.

At the seminar we looked at how to structure savings in a safer way with a Three Point Wealth Protection Posture. Here are charts we viewed at the seminar.

gary scott seminar

Finally we reviewed three ways to gain this multi currency diversification… the first being three ETFs that make it easy for any sized investor to hold a multi currency portfolio.

gary scott seminar

The first is the Vanguard Total Bond ETF for investors who want to hold non US bonds in multi currencies.

gary scott seminar

The second is the Vanguard Total International ETF which allows small investors to spread their savings into other currencies via 6000 non US equities around the world.

The third is a managed multi currency account managed by ENR Asset Management in Canada and held by Jyske Bank in Denmark.  This portfolio invests in five currencies with strong fundamentals and gold.

gary scott seminar

You can get details about these five currencies and this portfolio from Thomas Fischer at Thomas@enrasset.com

Non US investors contact Jyske’s Henrik Boellingtoft at Henrik.boellingtoft@jbpb.dk

Gary

You can learn how to develop a multi currency portfolio with our Borrow-Low Deposit High Multi Currency Report or join us at our next  International Investing & Business Seminar.

Writer’s Camps – Recorded on MP3

Learn how to learn how to wrote and self publish from our recorded Writer’s Camp…

Seven P Secrets of Self Publishing

When you write, you can work anywhere. 

gary-scott-image

Here I am working poolside in the winter, at our Florida farm.

gary scott

Here I am with our hound Ma, working during the summer at our North Carolina farm.

Learn how to earn everywhere, while living anywhere you choose.  I have been able to earn by writing in Hong Kong, England, the Isle of Man, Dominican Republic and Ecuador to name a few of the place I have lived.  Everywhere I have been… too numerous to share here, I have been able to work.

All I need is my laptop.

That’s all you need too… a laptop to be free!

Before computers, a pencil and pad did the job.

Freedom is just one benefit you can gain from writing.

Another benefit is income.   Writing has brought me both our farms, free and clear… plus a lot more.

Another good example of earning potential is my friend Hugh Howey.   He was working for $10 an hour in a book store when he self published his novel Wool, typing in a storage room during his lunch breaks.

Soon he was earning over $100,000 a month on Amazon.com.  This helped secure a six-figure book deal from Simon & Schuster, and an option for film by Ridley Scott, director of Blade Runner and Alien.

That’s what he’s doing now.

Hugh Howey

Sometimes Hugh and I get together at my  farm and play chess (he beats me badly).

Writers like High are great inspirations.

A couple of years ago Hugh  left Florida, and moved to South Africa.  He had a sailing catamaran built for him and now can sail the world while he continues to write.

Hugh explained it like this: And that’s the miracle of working as a writer: I can do it from anywhere and everywhere. The past few years, I’ve done a lot of writing from airplanes and airports while on business trips abroad.  SAND was entirely written overseas while traveling through seven different countries; I think it’s a better story because of those inspirations.  In upcoming years, I may be writing near your home port.

Hugh’s a super star writer and his success could not happen to a more deserving and talented person.  He pours enormous energy into being worthy of his readership.  But you do not have to be a million dollar a year earner or a traveler to benefit from writing.

The good news is… you do not need a huge success to have a rich and fulfilled lifestyle.  Self Publishing can bring you a life that most people only dream of, as a journeyman writer, instead of a super star.

May I hastily add that the path to stardom begins as a journeyman… so the journeyman’s path brings success without stardom… but can also lead to stardom.

What most success stories like Hugh’s rarely explain is the many hours of writing that was devoted before their self published book sales soared.   Hugh, like most writers were journeymen first.  Stardom came later.

Here are sevens secrets that can help you become a journeyman writer. 

The secrets are a writer’s armory of tools that allows almost anyone to create successful publications for income, freedom and fulfillment.

Take Merri’s and my publishing business as an example.  

Merri and I are not writing stars.  We are journeymen who have for more than 40 years, year in and year out, earned solid income writing and self publishing dozens of publications about multiple subjects.

Some years that income has been more than solid… over a million dollars.  Yet in terms of stardom, we are hardly known.

In a moment you’ll see why that’s fine for us and probably will be for you too.

First some history.

Merri became involved in self publishing over 40 years ago… first helping a veterinarian publish a book on a very specific market… animal acupuncture. Then she showed a needle point artist how to sell more books to an even more specific audience… “needle point enthusiasts”  about her needle point work to an audience larger than the population of the city she lived in.  This led Merri to eventually become Executive Editor of an award winning magazine in Florida.

My story allowed Merri and me to work and live from Hong Kong to London to Europe to Eastern Europe, then the Caribbean and then Ecuador… making millions in the process of following our adventures… having fun… while helping a large readership adapt to a rapidly changing world.

That’s what self publishing can bring, profit, adventure and fulfillment, a great feeling of worth and wonder.

Self Publishing has created exactly the lifestyle we desire allowing us to span the world and work with meaning and purpose.

Self Publishing has become a new business art form. 

The seven secrets can help you start your own self publishing business now.

Everything in publishing is new and exciting and changing.  Publishing is being recreated by the wonderful power of destructive technology.

Everything is new… except the seven secrets. 

Change in the publishing industry is disturbing many.   We love this evolution due to these seven secrets we call the 7Ps.  The 7 Ps are so fundamental to writing and publishing that new technology enhances rather than reduces their power.

The First P is Passion.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it AND create income with self publishing.  This can be your direct ticket to the kind of fulfillment you’ve always wanted.

Whether you want to travel the world or live as a recluse, work 12 hours a day or not work much at all,  you can set your schedule to succeed, if you’re willing to learn these seven secrets.

You can start part-time with any dream, passion, and budget.  Once you’ve created a product, you’ll enjoy the “multiple effect” of producing profits over and over again.

So the question is… What do you love to do?

What’s Your Passion:  An example is that thirty years ago, a client of Merri’s had a passion to help people who were in pain?  He published a series of pamphlets explaining various chiropractic disorders in very simple terms.  For example: “What Is Whiplash?”

The pamphlets contained solid information, but were simple 5″ x 7″ brochures with drawings and explanations. He sold them with a rack to chiropractors, who put them in their offices for patients to read.  These little self-published items sold year in and year out for decades.

There are thousands of ideas of this sort that can lead to big business.  It’s just a matter of defining and then acting on your passion.

Although I can work when I please and go where I wish, for me the most important reason for being a publisher is the satisfaction it brings. 

I love the projects I take on, so work doesn’t feel like, well… work.

What do you love?  If you love golf, then you can write and sell publications about golf.  Love travel, fishing, dogs, dolls, or art?  Write and sell publications in these fields.

Are you concerned about crime, war, poverty or environmental issues?  You can publish information products that help reduce these concerns.

Would you like to help the world be a more spiritual place?  Publish a newsletter, write a book (or hire someone to write it for you), record a tape… publish something that enlightens people.

Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it and earn income by publishing for ereaders, print on demand, CDs, lists, bound books, or any format you choose.

Be immersed in your passion and get paid well for it. 

This is why stardom is not the main goal for most writers and self publishers.  Extra income, more freedom and fulfillment are usually more than enough enough.

The seven Ps are:

#1: Passion

#2: Problem

#3: Person

#4: Profitably Priced Product

#5: Prospecting Pathway

#6: Promise

#7: Presentation

The first time I exposed others to the secrets in Self Publishing was in a weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.  We offered the camp for $1,500. 80 delegates enrolled.  People from all walks of life attended—chiropractors, businessmen, investors, doctors, realtors, inventors, airline pilots, engineers, and housewives.

Merri and I were so overwhelmed by the response, we decided to make it available to a larger audience.  We created a written course based on our current self publishing activity called “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.”  Then we recorded the weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.

Thousands have used the course as it has evolved over the decades.

You can receive both the written course and the recorded weekend seminar, in an MP3 file, in a special “Live Well and Free Anywhere” program I am making available to you.  The normal fee is $299 for the written course and $299 for the recorded workshop.   I’ll send you both the course and the recorded workshop and my course “International Business Made EZ (also $299) all for $299.  You save $598.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within 60 days for a full refund .

These courses are not theoretical.  They describe, step-by-step, how Merri and I built a million-dollar international business and how we are running this self publishing business right now.   We use the 7Ps today just as we did four decades ago to create a strong annual income.

This correspondence course is for those who would like their own international self publishing micro business for fun and profit. If you want fun, freedom, extra income and fulfillment with your own full or part time writing or want to build your existing business, by writing to sell you can profit from this course.  The course can help who want their own business or who want to have a business together or a family business.  This is the perfect course for those who can no longer find employment, who are looking for ways to earn abroad and who wish to retire and supplement their income.

Whether you are retired, an investor, chiropractor, doctor, dentist, professional or already own your own business, this offers another way to make money, to turn your passion into profit. We guarantee that we have shared all we know to help you start and run your own international business.  Enjoy and live a life of following your Passion to Profit… through writing.

Here is a special offer. 

We provide two emailed courses  “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell and be a Self Publisher” and “International Business Made EZ”.

We include the “Self Fulfilled Writing and Self Publishing Course” because there are two reasons to write, when you have something to say or when you have something to sell.  In this day and age many of us want to do both, make a statement that makes the world a better place and earn something extra in the process. 

Whatever your passion, however you do business, chances are you’ll be writing either to create a product or to sell a product. 

You save more than $598 because you also receive a recorded webinar conducted by our webmaster David Cross (at no extra cost).

David-cross-images tags:"2012-4-20"

David Cross

David has been our webmaster since our website began in the 1990s.  He is Merri’s and my business partner. We could not run our business as we do without him.

Learn the tactics we use in our web business that condenses 27 years of practical experience about search engine optimization, and writing for search engines.

For the last 27 years David has worked with companies large and small – IBM, Agora Publishing, AstraZeneca and many small business owners.  He has worked in 22 countries, and lived in six of them.

David’s clients span the globe and represent companies and charities both large and small.  From corporate giants to small, one-woman businesses and everything from finance, healthcare, publishing, technology, real estate, veterinarians, alternative health centers and everything in between.

David is an essential part of our web based business.

Myles Norin, CEO of Agora, Inc.  wrote:  “I have found David’s knowledge and experience unmatched in the industry.  Without David’s expertise and guidance for the past 7 years, we would not be nearly as successful as we are.”

As Senior Internet Consultant to Agora Inc. in Baltimore, MD, he worked closely with Agora’s publishers and marketers and – over a 7-year period – helped to propel Agora’s online revenues from around $20 million to well over $300 million.

David’s webinar will help you gain benefits in your micro business that large internet marketing companies use.  In this practical recorded workshop you will learn valuable skills to help your micro business.

There has never been a time when the opportunity for small businesses abroad has been so outstanding.  Expand your borders now!  Increase your economic security freedom, independence and success.

If you are not fully satisfied that this offers you enormous value simply email us for a full refund within 60 days.  You can keep all three courses as our thanks for giving our courses a try.

You also receive a report  “How to use Relaxed Concentration to Brainstorm Business Ideas” and a recorded workshop “How to Become and Remain Rich With Relaxed Concentration” at no additional cost.

Plus you get more in the program.

You receive regular writing and self publishing updates for a year.  Businesses usually need to evolve.  Merri and I continue to publish and have our independent businesses.  Some basics have remained for decades, but new strategies occur all the time throughout the year.  We’ll be sending along updates that share our most recent experiences as we learn and continue to grow our international micro business from Smalltown USA.

My special offer to you in this “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”, is that you receive:

  • “International Business Made EZ” course
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell” course
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3,
  • MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • Any updates to any of the courses, workshops, reports or recordings for a year.

We are so confident that you’ll gain from this offer that if you are not fully satisfied, simply email us within the first three months for a full refund . 

Order “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” and a quarter of update lessons $79.   Click Here.

Order “Self Fulfilled – How to Publish to Sell” and a full year of update lessons $299.  Click Here.      

See success stories from Self Publishers and a few who have attended the “Writer’s Camp” that you will receive on MP3.

 

Canada – Vietnam Multi Currency Mix


A Canada & Vietnam multi currency mix can add safety and profit to your savings and portfolio.

The huge demographic problem… plus debt and Congress’ inability to fix these problems means we need diversification out of the US dollar.

The Canadian dollar has been strong against the US dollar.

Can $ chart

Canadian dollar versus US dollar chart at www.finance.yahoo.com

Click on photo to enlarge.

Canadian investments make sense… for now.

Canada has solid banks, vast agriculture, mining operations, and energy reserves making it perhaps the most stable country in the world.

Despite the recession in 2007, the Big Five Canadian banks have booked $18.9 billion total profits while the five biggest U.S. banks had $37 billion loss.

Canada is rich in water and natural resources, fertile farmlands, aluminum, copper, gold, iron ore, nickel, uranium and the “black gold” of Albertan oil sands.

There is plenty of land, resources, a immigration policy that ensures the sustainability of social programs and cushions against the damaging effect of an aging population, the future is pretty bright.

The Canadian equity market has performed really well long term.

canada etf  share chart

The MSCI Canada Index ETF (Symbol EWC) is an easy way to cover the Canadian market.

EWC seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI Canada Index. The fund invests at least 90% of its assets in the securities of its underlying index and in depositary receipts. The underlying index consists of stocks traded primarily on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Components primarily include energy, financial and material companies.

See more on the EWC ETF at the link below.

Yet Canada’s population pyramid does not look so good.

canada population pyramid

Over the years, like most of the industrialized world… demographics get worse!

canada population pyramid

There will be almost as many at retirement age as those at working age.

So a mix with another younger country (demographically speaking) adds more long term profit potential.

Vietnam is a good example.

The market is down as this chart shows.

vietnam etf share chart

The demographics look good.

Demographic pyramid

One way to invest in this market is with the  VNM ETF

American faces a bad huge demographic problem and debt.  This could weaken the US dollar.  An 80% in Canada and 20% Vietnam mix  could provide diversification…safety now in Canada and long term profit potential in Vietnam.

Gary

Multi Currency Value Investing Seminar

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

VNM ETF at finance.yahoo on Vietnam ETF

EWC ETF at finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EWC

 

Multi Currency Risk


Multi currency risk is one reason to live in Ecuador… but just leaving the USA does not eliminate all the risk.

Ecuador’s currency is the US dollar, but the cost of living is so low that even if the dollar falls there is some protection against inflation.
The US dollar is not the only at risk currency.  Many currencies today are risky due to rising government expenditure.  Recent Multi Currency Updates, pointed out how I am totally divested in US dollars but have also have also dramatically reduced my euro holdings as well. Now I have switched my dollar loan to a euro loan. An excerpt from our multi currency updates explains why.

Jyske Global Asset Manager’s latest Market Update show how fast the world’s love affair for a currency (the euro) can end when it wrote:
The tragedy of the Greek budget deficit has now entered the 3rd act. What began as one nations budget deficit and its negative impact on the European Monetary Union (EMU), has now evolved into a multistate problem dragging the economies of the Iberian peninsula, Portugal and Spain, onto the stage. Market participants speculate that these 3 economies together will tone down the euro-zone’s overall growth in 2010 and thereby extending the current record low interest rate, making the US dollar more attractive – albeit the mighty dollar also has credibility problems.

The euro has, this far in 2010, lost 4.5% versus the US dollar, a scenery that very well could continue unless investors are convinced that these 3 troubled countries again can live up to the euro convergence criteria; demanding the euro-member nation’s “ratio of annual deficit to Gross Domestic Product (GDP)” not to exceed 3%. Greece currently has a budget deficit ratio of 12.7% to GDP, and a public debt expected to increase to 135% of GDP in 2011. A brutal consolidation plan has been approved by the European Commission, an ambitious plan to cut the Greek government spending and raise taxes in order to reduce the deficit ratio to below 3% of GDP by 2013.

Greece’s biggest labor union yesterday announced a 2nd mass strike this month, protesting against this major budget reduction, adding public pressure on the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou to soften the necessary adjustments.

The European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday left its benchmark rate unchanged at 1%, later signaling that the bank is in no rush to hike rates. The ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet later tried to restore credibility to the euro, by comparing the overall situation in the euro area to a number of industrialized countries. However, he failed to persuade the market to look at the euro-zone as a whole, rather than focusing on the individual problems in Greece, Spain and Portugal. The market is now suggesting that Greece invite the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help them getting back to fiscal responsibility, steering clear of any potential default scenery, and thereby calming the market nerves.

As it often goes in Greek tragedies, the story ends with a divine intervention, the “deus ex machina” in this case is manifested by the deep pockets of the IMF.

Recent Multi Currency Updates, pointed out how I am totally divested in US dollars but have also have also dramatically reduced my euro holdings as well.

This has a negative effect on my portfolio which had a US dollar loan protected by 5% a stop loss. Yesterday my portfolio manager at JGAM wrote:  Dear Gary   I hereby confirm that the stop loss on your USD loan has been hit. Your USD loan is now converted into Euro, at 137,78 (spot 137,99).
Monday, I’ll  look at changing that loan from euro to Swiss francs based on the thoughts of one of my advisers who wrote:  Perhaps it is better to borrow CHF instead of EURO if we are listening to the experts. They believe that the franc is overvalued. You can see this potential of a Swiss franc drop versus the euro in the five year euro Swiss franc chart (euro/chf) at yahoo.finance.com.  Two years ago a euro bought about 1.68 Swiss francs.  Last year it bought about 1.55 Swiss francs. Last week a euro bought only 1.46 Swiss francs.

multi-currency-chart
The stronger Swiss franc makes it hard for Swiss businesses to sell their products in Europe… their major trading partner.   The Swiss National Bank has repeatedly threatened to intervene to push the franc down. I had a dollar loan equal to about 5% of my portfolio.  The stronger dollar meant that as the dollar appreciated… it costs me more to repay the loan.  So I took my loss.
The impact of this problem may reach deeper than just Forex markets as explained in a New York Times news alert yesterday that said:

Sovereign Debt and Job Worries Push Stocks Down Sharply; Dow Industrials Fall 2.6%

Two of Wall Street’s biggest fears — a deteriorating employment picture and the debt woes facing foreign governments — re-emerged on Thursday, pushing stocks sharply lower. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 2.6% and briefly dipped below 10,000 before closing at 10,002.18 in preliminary figures; broader indexes slid nearly 3 percent.

Thursday’s trading brought hefty declines across the board, with a possible crisis in the European financial system overshadowing news of robust earnings for technology companies.

Read More:  http://www.nytimes.com?emc=na

Here is why this is happening.  Since 2008, wise investors have been investing in fairly risky investments expecting the world to recover from the 2007-2008 recession.

These investments though have been tentative because of fear that the basic global economic structure is taxed.
This chart from a recent article in the Economist entitled “Leviathan stirs again” shows why.
Though we know that US debt is huge… this chart helps us see that government spending as a per cent of GDP is higher in Canada,  France Britain and Germany.  Here are excerpts from this article:  The return of big government means that policymakers must grapple again with some basic questions. They are now even harder to answer.

FIFTEEN years ago it seemed that the great debate about the proper size and role of the state had been resolved. In Britain and America alike, Tony Blair and Bill Clinton pronounced the last rites of “the era of big government”. Privatising state-run companies was all the rage. The Washington consensus reigned supreme: persuade governments to put on “the golden straitjacket”, in Tom Friedman’s phrase, and prosperity would follow.

Today big government is back with a vengeance: not just as a brute fact, but as a vigorous ideology. Britain’s public spending is set to exceed 50% of GDP. (See chart above).

America’s financial capital has shifted from New York to Washington, DC, and the government has been trying to extend its control over the health-care industry. Huge state-run companies such as Gazprom and PetroChina are on the march.

Many European countries have devoted a high proportion of their GDP to public spending for years. And many governments cannot wait to get out of their new-found business of running banks and car companies. But the past decade has clearly produced changes which, taken cumulatively, have put the question of the state back at the centre of political debate.

The obvious reason for the change is the financial crisis. As global markets collapsed, governments intervened on an unprecedented scale, injecting liquidity into their economies and taking over, or otherwise rescuing, banks and other companies that were judged “too big to fail”. A few months after Lehman Brothers had collapsed, the American government was in charge of General Motors and Chrysler, the British government was running high street banks and, across the OECD, governments had pledged an amount equivalent to 2.5% of GDP.

Yet even before Lehman Brothers collapsed the state was on the march—even in Britain and America, which had supposedly done most to end the era of big government. Gordon Brown, Britain’s chancellor and later its prime minister, began his ministerial career as “Mr Prudent”. During Labour’s first three years in office public spending fell from 40.6% of GDP to 36.6%. But then he embarked on an Old Labour spending binge. He increased spending on the National Health Service by 6% a year in real terms and boosted spending on education.

In America, George Bush did not even go through a prudent phase. He ran for office believing that “when somebody hurts, government has got to move”. And he responded to the terrorist attacks of September 11th 2001 with a broad-ranging “war on terror”. The result of his guns-and-butter strategy was the biggest expansion in the American state since Lyndon Johnson’s in the mid-1960s. He added a huge new drug entitlement to Medicare. He created the biggest new bureaucracy since the second world war, the Department of Homeland Security. He expanded the federal government’s control over education and over the states. The gap between American public spending and Canada’s has tumbled from 15 percentage points in 1992 to just two percentage points today.

Another chart in that article shows how the American budget no longer makes sense.

The level of public spending is only one indication of the problem.

Looking at where the spending goes is another. In the case of America’s proposed 3.6 Trillion 2011 budget, defense and Social Security get an increased lion’s share of the money. Education… infrastructure and important activities get tiny amounts and less than before.

This suggests that despite the dollar’s current strength… long term we should be investing out of the dollar and not too much in the euro.

I have covered my dollar loan and in the process reduced my position in euro…. so my portfolio still has no dollars. It is just no longer short the greenback and has 5% (of the total portfolio) less euro.

Most portfolios should hold currencies around the world.

Sadly… US banks have little experience in helping multi currency investors.

This is why Jyske Banks upcoming Forex seminar in California may be helpful to you.

Pressures to reduce tax evasion and terrorism have stopped many overseas banks from serving US investors exactly when Americans need multi currency help them the most.

Fortunately for me and readers,  Jyske Bank in April 2008 set up Jyske Global Asset management as an Asset Management Company servicing US clients called JGAM. During the first 9 months JGAM  had to help their US clients cope with the worst financial crisis since the thirties.

They changed the investment strategy accordingly and over weighted their clinets portfolios in defensive investments.  During 2009 they became cautious optimists and began increasing the exposure towards equities and corporate bonds.

All investment decisions in JGAM are carried out by an Investment Committee who meet at least once a month.  Every member in the committee has responsibility for an asset class.

JGAM offers a number of portfolio’s depending on the size ranging from low risk to high risk… with or without leverage.

Since May of 2009 JGAM  also offers managed IRA accounts.

JGAM’s portfolios have performed very well in 2009  and the performance opf their client’s portfolios range from 10-33% depending on size and risk profile.

The IRA portfolios which were established in May 2009 has returned between 12% – 18%.

JGAM offers two types of multi currency service for US investors.

US investors can have a fully managed portfolio or have an advisory account where they make their own decisions.  For clients living in the US the advisory accounts come with many investment restrictions.

Managed portfolios are best for most US resident Americans.

Americans living outside the US can have advisory accounts without limitations regarding the investments.

Jyske Bank Copenhagen is the custodian for all JGAM accounts and for larger clients Jyske offers a VISA debit card associated with the account.

The VISA card comes with restrictions. It is a debit not credit card and normally requires a minimum balance of two times the spending limit PLUS  a minimum  investment account with JGAM of $50,000.

JGAM maintains a close relationship with its clients, makes regular visit to the US and provides a direct phone line for each client to an investment adviser.  JGAM also visits its clients in Ecuador as they participate in seminars that I and International Living conduct in Ecuador.

Beginning in 2009 JGAM also started conducting  their own seminars.

Last years seminar was in Naples Florida.

In April 2010 JGAM will conduct a Foreign Exchange seminar in Laguna Beach California.   In August JGAM will venture with Jyske Bank to conduct a seminar in Copenhagen.

JGAM is a fee based only company. Their only objective is to make money for their clients.   All JGAM employees, as with Jyske Bank,  are on a fixed salary WITHOUT BONUSES.

2009 was an extraordinary year and JGAM does not expect a repeat in 2010 as they expect central banks to begin withdrawing liquidity from the market.

JGAM does expect some interesting theme based investments in 2010. Clean energy will probably play an important role as governments across the globe focuses on the climate.  JGAM believes that the “climate aspect” has to be integrated into future investments, and that such a strategy can offer good returns.

They have already invested in iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index.

This Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) aims to track the S&P Global Clean Energy Index and offers exposure to 30 of the largest publicly listed companies around the world that are involved in clean energy related businesses.

JGAM expects many country’s to tighten monetary policy (Australia and Norway have already started) which will create tension and volatility in the currency market.

JGAM plans to take advantage of these investment possibilities also in 2010.

Merri and I will join JGAM  at their April Laguna Beach seminar where you can be introduced to foreign exchange trading and investing in general. I will speak at the seminar and review my portfolio… why… what and what if.

The Laguna Beach forex seminar will be conducted 30 April  to 2 May 2010.

You will have the opportunity to:

• find out about JGAM’s BRAND NEW upcoming Managed FX Portfolio

• find out how JGAM  use’s currencies in our portfolios

• find out how you can take advantage of the profit
opportunities available with foreign exchange trading

• learn about and ask any FX questions that you didn’t dare to ask

• discuss key foreign exchange topics in greater depth than normal

• network with currency experts and JGAM’s experts.

For more details about the seminar contact Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Subscribe to our multi currency updates here.

Gary

Join us March 11 to 14 2010. Learn how to increase your intelligence… reduce stress and speak Spanish  atSuper Thinking + Spanish Course, Mt. Dora, Fl.

Plus you can also on March 15  travel to Quito Ecuador.

March 16 Travel Quito to Cotacachi and attend one, two, three or all of of our Ecuador real estate tours.

March 17-18  North Andes, Imbabura & Cotacachi Real Estate Tour

March 19-20    Cotacachi Shamanic Tour

March 21  Travel Cotacachi to Manta

March 22-23   Manta & Mid Coast Real Estate Tour

March 24 Travel Manta to Cuenca

March 25-26 Cuenca Real Estate Tour

March 27  Travel Cuenca to Salinas

Mar. 28-29   Salinas & South Coast Real Estate Tour

The Ecuador airfare war makes it cheaper to get to Ecuador than ever before… and there is still time to enjoy great Ecuador tour savings.
You enjoy discounts by attending multiple seminars and tours. Here are our multi tour adventure discounts.Two Pack… 2 seminar courses & tours $998 Couple  $1,349 Save $149 on couple

Three Pack… 3 seminar courses & tours   $1399 Couple  $1,899 Save $98 single or $348 on a couple or more

Four Pack… 4 seminar courses & tours   $1,699 Couple $2,299 Save $98 single or $697 on a couple or more

Five Pack… 5 seminar courses & tours  $1,999 Couple $2,699 Save $496 single or $1,046 on a couple or more

Six Pack… 6 seminars courses & tours  $2,199 Couple $3,099 Save $795 single or $1,395 on a couple or more

Even Better.  Greater Savings. Our 2010 International Club membership allows you and a guest to attend as many of the 51 courses and tours we’ll sponsor and conduct in 2010  (fees would be $40,947 for all these courses individually) is only $3,500.

If you join the International Club, the entrance fee for 2010 is $3,500.  Your attendance fees at all courses will be waived. You and a guest of you choice can attend courses worth $40,947.You can calculate the savings as our schedule of all 2010 courses here.
International Club 2010 Membership $3,500 Enroll here

International Club Three Monthly Payments of $1,190

Our Spring 2010 schedule starts:

Apr. 12-15   Ecuador Export Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Apr. 17-18   Imbabura Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Apr. 20-21  Coastal Mid Coast Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Apr. 23-24  Quito & Mindo Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Apr. 26-27  Cuenca Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)

The multi tour discounts remain effective for the April tours.

Read the entire article Leviathan stirs again


Jyske Global Asset Management Seminars


Jyske Global Asset Management seminars in 2010 may help your portfolio survive and grow.

Sadly at a time when American investors need more multi currency investments and a better global view, overseas banks are increasingly restricted from helping US investors.  Anti tax evasion, money laundering and anti terrorism regulations have created so many regulations on banks that increasing numbers of overseas banks have stopped accepting US investors.

Yet at this crucial time when the US dollar has great fundamental weakness, US banks have little experience in helping its clients invest in other currencies.

This is why Jyske Banks upcoming April 2010 Forex Seminar in California may be helpful to you.

multi-currency-debt

I talked about green investing with these speakers at the Jyske 2009 Naples seminar.  Here I am with other speakers, Left to right: Samuel Rachlin,  Rich Checkan, Steve Blumenthal, Joe Cox, John Mauldin, Gary Scott, Lars Stouge. Thomas Fischer Moderating.

Fortunately for me and readers,  Jyske Bank in April 2008 set up Jyske Global Asset management as an Asset Management Company servicing US clients called JGAM.

During the first 9 months JGAM  had to help their US clients cope with the worst financial crisis since the thirties.

They changed the investment strategy accordingly and over weighted their clinets portfolios in defensive investments.  During 2009 they became cautious optimists and began increasing the exposure towards equities and corporate bonds.

All investment decisions in JGAM are carried out by an Investment Committee who meet at least once a month.  Every member in the committee has responsibility for an asset class.

JGAM offers a number of portfolio’s depending on the size ranging from low risk to high risk… with or without leverage.

Since May of 2009 JGAM  also offers managed IRA accounts.

JGAM’s portfolios have performed very well in 2009  and the performance opf their client’s portfolios range from 10-33% depending on size and risk profile.

The IRA portfolios which were established in May 2009 has returned between 12% – 18%.

JGAM offers two types of multi currency service for US investors.

US investors can have a fully managed portfolio or have an advisory account where they make their own decisions.  For clients living in the US the advisory accounts come with many investment restrictions.

Managed portfolios are best for most US resident Americans.

Americans living outside the US can have advisory accounts without limitations regarding the investments.

Jyske Bank Copenhagen is the custodian for all JGAM accounts and for larger clients Jyske offers a VISA debit card associated with the account.

The VISA card comes with restrictions. It is a debit not credit card and normally requires a minimum balance of two times the spending limit PLUS  a minimum  investment account with JGAM of $50,000.

JGAM maintains a close relationship with its clients, makes regular visit to the US and provides a direct phone line for each client to an investment adviser.  JGAM also visits its clients in Ecuador as they participate in seminars that I and International Living conduct in Ecuador.

Beginning in 2009 JGAM also started conducting  their own seminars.

Last years seminar was in Naples Florida.

The 115 delegates reported that they really gained from listening to what we had to say and…

brazilian-bond-distortion

talking among themselves during the coffee brakes and at meals.

brazilian-bond-distortion

One benefit of these seminars is talking to an overseas banker.  Here I am at the seminar  with my Jyske account executive Anders Nielsen.

brazilian-bond-distortion

In April 2010 JGAM will conduct a Foreign Exchange seminar in Laguna Beach California.   In August JGAM will venture with Jyske Bank to conduct a seminar in Copenhagen.

JGAM is a fee based only company. Their only objective is to make money for their clients.   All JGAM employees, as with Jyske Bank,  are on a fixed salary WITHOUT BONUSES.

2009 was an extraordinary year and JGAM does not expect a repeat in 2010 as they expect central banks to begin withdrawing liquidity from the market.

JGAM does expect some interesting theme based investments in 2010. Clean energy will probably play an important role as governments across the globe focuses on the climate.  JGAM believes that the “climate aspect” has to be integrated into future investments, and that such a strategy can offer good returns.

They have already invested in iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index.

This Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) aims to track the S&P Global Clean Energy Index and offers exposure to 30 of the largest publicly listed companies around the world that are involved in clean energy related businesses.

JGAM expects many country’s to tighten monetary policy (Australia and Norway have already started) which will create tension and volatility in the currency market.

JGAM plans to take advantage of these investment possibilities also in 2010.

Merri and I will join JGAM  at their Laguna Beach seminar where you can be introduced to foreign exchange trading and investing in general. I will speak at the seminar and review my portfolio… why… what and what if.

The Laguna Beach forex seminar will be conducted 30 April  to 2 May 2010.

You will have the opportunity to:

• find out about JGAM’s BRAND NEW upcoming Managed FX Portfolio

• find out how JGAM  use’s currencies in our portfolios

• find out how you can take advantage of the profit
opportunities available with foreign exchange trading

• learn about and ask any FX questions that you didn’t dare to ask

• discuss key foreign exchange topics in greater depth than normal

• network with currency experts and JGAM’s experts.

For more details about the seminar contact Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Gary

International Gold Review


This international gold review is a followup to yesterday’s message about maintaining control over your wealth.

Jyske Global Asset Management just changed its gold position so we should take a new look at gold.

Most major governments have deficits in their budget.  This forces them to borrow or print money that is not backed by productivity.  When this happens long term, the purchasing power of  money created in this way, loses purchasing power.

Any form of exchange must possess five qualities to be considered real money that will store value and purchasing power.  These five values that money must be are durable, divisible, portable, desirable and rare.

When a government creates a currency with no production to back it, then that currency loses its rarity and its purchasing power falls.

Gold is one long term way to combat the risk of a falling currency.

Gold is real money because it has all five qualities of real money.

Make no mistake… when it is rare… paper money is better money than gold… because it is more divisible and portable.   Electronic money available in a credit card is even better… the most portable and divisible of all… IF THE CURRENCY MAINTAINS ITS RARITY.

Regretfully for the dollar, euro, yen and many other major currencies, this has not been the case…  so gold still has a place in our portfolios.  Gold as a commodity fits the five standards best of all and for thousands of years has been used as a form of money.

In a moment we’ll look at what might happen to the price of gold in the months ahead.

First, because many readers have asked about bringing gold into Ecuador, I checked with out attorney Andres Cordova in Quito.  Here is his reply: Dear Gary:  After reviewing applicable legislation, we’ve found that there is no restriction on the introduction of gold or coins to Ecuador.

The introduction of such, however, does carry a tariff that is to be charged in accordance to weight or monetary amount. Furthermore, there’d need to be a customs filing in which the gold presentation is to be declared, such as ingots, jewelry, dust, etc. Furthermore, an explanation of where does such gold / coins come from needs to be consigned in such form. If gold is brought with the traveler, then such must be specified in the customs form that each passenger gets before landing in Ecuador.

Gold and coins would pay a tariff of 0.5% and 12% VAT.  However, if we could know exactly what the person intends on bringing to Ecuador we can better review applicable taxes and tariffs. Best regards,  Andres

For those that want physical gold in Ecuador, there is gold mining in Ecuador and are gold dealers. I do not know any  personally. But there are many places with signs that they buy gold. I am researching this and will post a password protected message for our Ecuador Living subscribers.  You can subscribe to Ecuador Living so you’ll receive this report when it is published.

There are three other ways to hold gold than in bullion and coins. These alternatives are less expensive than bullion and avoid the hassle and dangers of carry heavy, valuable precious metals on your person and across borders.  Plus they avoid this Ecuador tax.  We’ll review these options after we examine what might happen to gold’s price in the days ahead.

This article is from the Asset Strategies Alert:

When gold breached the $1,000/oz mark in February of 2008, the mass media were full of reports of unprecedented coin demand and long wait times for bullion buyers. You couldn’t open the paper without seeing a piece about the gold rush.

Although the press has now set gold aside for hotter stories, I can tell you demand for gold coins continues at unprecedented levels worldwide, and production is still struggling to keep up. Take a look at these recent reports:

Sales of the Austrian Philharmonic gold coin soared 544% in the first two months of 2009 (vs. the same period the year before), with production at the country’s mint running quadruple its usual volume.

The demand for Krugerrands is at its highest level since 1986. The South African refinery recently doubled production of blank gold coins to 20,000 ounces per week.

China, now the fastest-growing market for gold, saw 2008 sales (measured in dollars) rise by 50% over the year before – and total sales in January 2009 were one billion yuan (US$146 million), 30% more than all of last year.

The U.S. Mint sold 193,500 one-ounce gold Eagles in the first seven weeks of 2009 – equaling the number shipped in all of 2007 and about matching the first half of 2008.
Russia’s Sberbank says it has “never seen such strong demand for investment coins.”

Swiss banks just reported they are running out of secure storage space for gold bullion held by investors and institutions in their vaults.

I have worked with Michael Checkan at Asset Strategies International, Inc. for many decades and any time I think of gold, I think of him.

Michael’s firm offers one of the the three gold alternatives… Precious Metals Certificate Programs.

Precious metals can be purchased and stored on your behalf through the Perth Mint Certificate Program.  This program offers storage for gold, silver, and platinum at the Perth Mint in Western Australia. This is the only government guaranteed precious metals program in the world… fully backed by the government of Western Australia, and has operated continuously from the same location for over 100 years.

This is an easy and low cost way to hold metals overseas.  You can learn more about these certificates from Asset Strategies with a toll-free call 1-800-831-0007 or 301-881-8600 or visit their website www.assetstrategies.com.

See an interview with Thomas Fischer of Jyske Global Asset Management and Rich Checkan of Asset Strategies here.

Jyske Global Asset Management (JGAM) agrees that gold is a good asset now.  All of JGAM’s portfolios  were overweight in gold last time I reviewed them. . The low risk portfolio had about 5% in gold…. medium risk about 9% and the high risk portfolios were holding about 15% gold.

However JGAM does not invest in physical gold or even undivided bullion. They invest in the ETFS Physical Gold shares.  This is a share traded mainly on the London Stock Exchange  (code PHAU) but also trades on Deutsche Borse (Xetra), NYSE-Euronext, and Borsa Italiana.

The ETFS Physical Gold provides an easy, simple, cost-efficient and secure way to access the
precious metals market.  This share provides a return equivalent to movements in the
gold spot price less fees because the shares are backed by physical allocated metal held by the
Custodian (HSBC Bank USA N.A.).  All the gold held are good delivery bars.

This is a very practical way to own gold, because you can buy the shares direct from any stock broker.   The shares are transferable or sold in the market.  These shares trade on the stock markets just like an equity and their pricing and tracking operate similar to an Exchange Traded Fund except the share tracks the price of physical gold, not a portfolio of equities.

Here is the five year simulated price of these shares from the fund’s fact sheet.

gold-chart

Other ETfs that invest in physical gold are SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) listed on the New York Stock Exchange  in November of 2004, and traded on NYSE Arca since December 13, 2007, as well as  Singapore Stock Exchange, Tokyo Stock Exchange and the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong.

Here is a chart of the SPDR five year performance.

gold-shares

Another ETF that invests in gold is iShares Comex Trust (IAU).

I have just competed a full gold report for our multi currency subscribers that provides a  third alternative to gold bullion and coins.

In the multi currency gold report, I describe the recent change in JGAMs gold position, the profit they made and how Jyske Bank Private Bank and Jyske Global Asset Management can buy gold alternatives.

You can subscribe to our multi currency service and get this report here.

Deficit spending by the major governments around the world has reduced the integrity of the world’s currency system. All currencies risk losing purchasing power.  Gold long term is one way to combat this risk.

Gary

The greatest asset of all is the ability to earn wherever you live, which brings everlasting wealth.

This is why we offer our course Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business.

A clear mind and healthy body are also a vital assets… plus a second language is a powerful diversification tool.

This is why I am giving everyone who enrolls in our North Carolina or Ecuador International Business & Investing seminar in October or November our “Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business Course” (offered at $299) free.

Here are comments from a reader about the way we help:  Thank you for your inspiration and information outlining foreign banking and retirement.  Your comments and suggestions are welcome for planning the steps to evaluate the early stages of living abroad.

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Super Thinking + Spanish Course

Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Join us with Jyske. Learn more about global investing, how to have an international business and diversification in Ecuador at the seminar.

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina with our webmaster  David Cross & Thomas Fischer of JGAM

October 16-18 Ecuador Southern coastal tour (early sign up before Sept. 1, $499 per person).

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Oct. 25-26 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador Seminar

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador seminar or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799