Tag Archive | "European Union"

Ecuador Currency


Ecuador’s currency is the US dollar.

When Merri and I first arrived in Ecuador the currency was the sucre and it took 3,000 sucre to buy one dollar.  About five years after we arrived the sucre had dropped to about 8,000 sucres to buy a US dollar.  Then a decade ago the Ecuadorian economy went into self destruct and the sucre collapsed all the way to 25,000 sucres per dollar.

ecuador-real-estate-for-sale

The dollar still goes a long way in Ecuador. You can still buy beach condos like this for under $24,000.

This created incredible real estate bargains.  I began buying Ecuador real estate which is one reason I can sell Ecuador real estate now at below the market and still make a decent profit.

ecuador-real-estate

Large fixer upper houses like this in the Andes can still sell for less than $29,000.

However getting out of the sucre into the greenback was in a way like jumping out of the frying pan into the fire…. because since then the US dollar has dropped a lot in value compared to other currencies such as the euro.  Excerpts from our latest Multi Currency portfolio report show this fact.  Here is what that message said:

Since we are beginning a new decade it makes sense to look back a decade at the past multi currency action.

A reader just sent this note:  Dear Gary, I am worried by the breaking news that the “Bolivarian Alliance” is creating its own currency.

The news says:   “Countries of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA) agreed to introduce regional common currency, the SUCRE…”During the ALBA summit on Dec. 13 (In Cuba), nine member countries including Antigua and Barbuda, Bolivia, Cuba, Dominica, Ecuador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Venezuela announced the introduction of new virtual currency in January 2010.”  Thanks.

These countries have been announcing this type of stuff for quite some time.

You can see a 2007 article I wrote about this at Ecuador Currency Opportunity.

Announcements by governments are easy.  Actions not so much so.  Getting all these countries to actually do something together is not such an easy task.  Not much has happened from the 2007 announcement and I do not expect much to happen from the 2009 announcement.

Most of the countries above face enormous social and economic challenges in the decade ahead.  Keeping their own currency stable will be hard enough.  Creating a new one easy… but maintaining it hard.  Getting all these nations to work together to create one currency seems pretty unlikely.

The European Union and euro whose nations enjoyed  much greater economic success and stronger political stability, than the nations above took decades to create. The euro was driven by a real fear… a repeat of WW I and WWII.   Yet the euro has taken many decades to form.

Should we expect quick action for a union by Antigua and Barbuda, Bolivia, Cuba, Dominica, Ecuador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Venezuela? Remain watchful but do not expect anything too soon.

A better way to answer the US dollar dilemma  is to invest in the best value BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and speculate on the ups and downs of their value.

Here are excerpts from a recent Multi Currency Update I sent to our multi currency portfolio subscribers.

BRIC currencies make sense because these countries are still viewed as emerging markets… but they now are major economies.

Together, these four countries generate approximately 27% of the world´s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The BRIC economies are also growing faster than in the Western world.  The average annual GDP growth of a BRIC nation was greater than 7% before the recession, as compared to approximately 2% for a G-7 nation.

The future growth of the global economy depends largely on the BRIC economies continuing growth.

The simplest way to invest in BRIC economies is with a BRIC ETF like iShares MSCI BRIC Index Fund. This ETF tracks the MSCI BRIC Index and invests in about 260 different companies in these four countries.  Invest and leave the investment alone for long term growth.

Jyske Global Asset Management recommends BRIC allocation as below :

If you have a Low Risk profile                  : up to 5%
If you have a Medium Risk profile          : up to 10%
If you have a High Risk profile                : up to 15%

A more complicated but potentially more profitable approach is to weight your investments more heavily in the good value BRIC countries and sell shares in the BRICS with poor value.

Heavier speculation  could buy the good value BRICS and short the low value BRICS.

For example you can see below why right now may be a good time to sell investments in India and invest in China.

Learn how to read this entire update on why to sell these BRICS now as a Multi Currency subscriber.

A March 2009 report entitled “Ecuador Economic Worries” shows why the dollar’s fate is not so important to Ecuador when it says:

A number of readers have sent questions about Ecuador economic worries. One regular Ecuador economic worry I receive is that Ecuador will stop using the US dollar as its currency.

There is little doubt that Ecuador’s economy is in a mess.

Which economy is not?

We’ll look at this Ecuador economic worry in a moment, but to put this worry into perspective, may I share some other economic worries at the same time… plus post some photos from our friend, Dennis Goff… such as this shot from a boutique hotel in Manta, Ecuador where you can stay for $52 a night.

ecuador-economic-ideas

Ecuador has economic worries, yes, but are they worse than the economic worries in Europe or the US?   The photos show that while we worry we can be in paradise on a shoestring budget.

Read the entire article Ecuador Economic Worries here.

Learn more about BRICS. Join Merri and me along with Thomas Fischer and my portfolio manager, Anders Nielsen, at our February 11-14 IBEZ seminar.

Learn more at  Quantum Wealth Florida -International Investing & Internet Business, Mt. Dora, Fl.

Gary

If you plan to join us at six or more seminars and tours in Ecuador, Florida or  North Carolina in 2010 you can save as an International Club member.

See details about each of our seminar and tours below… then see our December special that allows you to attend as many of these courses you like at a huge savings.

For International Investing and Business.

For Super Thinking + Spanish

For Ecuador Shamanic Tour

For Ecuador Export

For North Andes, Imbabura & Cotacachi

For Manta & Mid Coast

For Quito & Mindo

For Salinas & South Coast

For Cuenca

You gain discounts by attending multiple seminars and tours.

Here are our multi tour adventure discounts.

Two Pack… 2 seminar courses & tours $998 Couple  $1,349 Save $149 on couple

Three Pack… 3 seminar courses & tours   $1399 Couple  $1,899 Save $98 single or $348 on a couple or more

Four Pack… 4 seminar courses & tours   $1,699 Couple $2,299 Save $98 single or $697 on a couple or more

Five Pack… 5 seminar courses & tours  $1,999 Couple $2,699 Save $496 single or $1,046 on a couple or more

Six Pack… 6 seminars courses & tours  $2,199 Couple $3,099 Save $795 single or $1,395 on a couple or more

But our 2009 International Club membership which allows you and a guest to attend as many of the 56 courses and tours we’ll sponsor and conduct in 2010  (fees would be $40,947 for all these courses individually) is only $2,999.

The International club fee rises to $3,500 in January 2010. Enroll in the International Club now at the original fee of $2,999. Save $501.

International Club 2010

Attend our 56 investment, business, Spanish, real estate and export, courses and tours in 2010 with one small enrollment fee.

International Club 2010 Membership Enroll here

Here are the 56 courses and tours you can attend free. Plus there is even one more savings you will see below.

Jan.   8-11     Ecuador Export Tour
Jan. 13-14     Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Jan. 15-18     Coastal Real Estate Tour
Jan. 19-20    Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour
Jan. 21-23    Cuenca Real Estate Tour

Join us in February or March.

Feb. 11-14   Quantum Wealth Florida -International Investing & Internet Business, Mt. Dora, Fl.

Feb. 15-16   Travel to and visit Quito
Feb  17         Travel to Manta
Feb. 18-19   Coastal Real Estate Tour
Feb. 20        Travel to Cotacachi
Feb. 21-22   Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Feb. 23-24  Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour
Feb. 26-27  Cuenca Real Estate Tour

Mar. 11-14     Super Thinking + Spanish Course, Mt. Dora, Fl.
Mar. 15-16    Travel to Quito and Andes
Mar. 17-18     Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Mar. 19-20    Cotacachi Shamanic tour
Mar. 22-23    Coastal Real Estate Tour
Mar. 25-26    Cuenca Real Estate Tour
Mar. 28-29   South Coast Real Estate Tour

Apr. 12-15   Ecuador Export Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Apr. 17-18   Imbabura Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Apr. 20-21  Coastal Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Apr. 23-24  Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Apr. 26-27  Cuenca Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)

May  13-14     Ecuador Shamanic Minga  ($499 or couple $749)
May  16-17    Imbabura Real Estate Tour  ($499 or couple $749)
May  19-20    Coastal Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
May  22-23    Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour  ($499 or couple $749)
May  25-26    Cuenca Real Estate Tour  ($499 or couple $749)
May  28-29    South Coast real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)

June 24         Quantum Wealth North Carolina
June 25-27    International Investing and Business North Carolina  ( $749 or couple $999)
June 28-29   Travel to Ecuador and Andes
June 30-Jy 1 Imbabura Real Estate Tour  ($499 or couple $749)
July 3-4          Coastal Real Estate Tour   ($499 or couple $749)
July 6-7          Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour    ($499 or couple $749)
July 9-10        Cuenca Real Estate Tour   ($499 or couple $749)

Sept.   3-6      Ecuador Export Tour  ($499 or couple $749)
Sept.   8-9      Imbabura Real Estate Tour  ($499 or couple $749)
Sept. 11-12     Coastal Real Estate Tour   ($499 or couple $749)
Sept. 14-15     Cuenca Real Estate Tour    ($499 or couple $749)
Sept. 17-18     Ecuador Shamanic Minga  ($499 or couple $749)
Sept 20-21      South Coast Real Estate tour ($499 or couple $749)

Oct.    7          Quantum Wealth North Carolina
Oct.   8-10     International Investing & Business North Carolina ($749 or couple $999)
Oct.   11-12    Travel to Quito and Andes
Oct.  13-14     Imbabura Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Oct.  16-17     Coastal Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Oct.  19-20    Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Oct. 22-23     Cuenca Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)

Nov.    4-7        Super Thinking + Spanish Course Florida ($749 or couple $999)
Nov.    8-9       Travel to Quito and Andes
Nov. 10-11       Imbabura Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Nov. 13-14      Coastal Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Nov. 16-17      Quito-Mindo Real Estate  ($499 or couple $749)
Nov. 19-20     Cuenca Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Nov  22-23      South Coast Real Estate Tour (($499 or couple $749)

Dec.   3-5       Ecuador Shamanic Mingo  ($499 or couple $749)
Dec.   7-8       Imbabura Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Dec.  10-11    Coastal Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Dec. 13-14     Quito-Mindo Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)
Dec. 16-17      Cuenca Real Estate Tour ($499 or couple $749)

If you join the International Club, the entrance fee for 2010 is $2,999 (until January 2010).  Your attendance fees at all courses will be waived. You and your guest can attend courses worth $40,947.

You can calculate the savings as our schedule of all 2010 courses is shown below.

Arrival dates are always one or two days earlier. Please double check with us before booking flights.

I invite you to be a member of the International Club which allows you and your guest of your choice to attend all of these courses which are valued at $40,947!

International Club 2010 Membership Enroll here

You may well wonder why I would make such an offer and ask why the cost is so low? Let me answer this question frankly and from the heart.

First, it helps us do a better job for you. We feel greatly enriched when we can really help our clients improve their lives. We have learned through years of experience the best way to do this is to meet with you regularly. We can best help you learn how to improve your health and wealth through continual expansion of knowledge.

Second, we gain enormous fulfillment from the many friendships we form through the years. Our friends have enriched our lives tremendously. Let me explain this in more detail.

As a member, you will be part of our international family that meets intensively over the next year to examine ways we can make our lives better. Our goal is beyond just having money. Our goal is to have quantum wealth… good health… wealth and fulfillment through service.

Though I give all course delegates my very best, I cannot help but to do a better job for those who come again and again. As we meet often; your particular wants, needs and desires become clear, and it is easier for me to point you in the right direction.

Another phenomenon is that repeat delegates help each other! They get to know one another, help each other learn, share their insights, make contacts and gain more wealth.

Out associates in Ecuador, are experienced business people who live or work and conduct our real estate and export courses.  They can also act as your local backup for the business.

Lifestyle for Two. There is more! I have learned at my courses that many repeat delegates were couples.

We want couples! As a member of the program, you are entitled to bring another person to every single course or tour. The cost for that extra person will be ZERO!  You can bring whomever you wish. Bring your spouse, a friend, son or daughter, partner, accountant, adviser. You can bring the same person each time or a different person, whomever you choose to accompany you. (Accommodations and air fares relating to the courses are not included for members, delegates or their guests.)

Won’t you join us in this exciting club and share Merri’s and my lifestyle for the next year? We look forward to seeing you at as many courses as possible and sharing this wonderful world of abundance and well being with you!

Gary

International Club 2010 Membership  Enroll here

Ecuador Residence & Triple Protection


Ecuador residence may be good idea for many… but I do not recommend investing everything in Ecuador.

Our recent article Ecuador and the US dollar outlined how I am short the US  dollar via dollar loans and hold euros, emerging currencies and Ecuador real estate.

ecuador-sunrise

The sunshine always shines somewhere.  Sunrise from our condo in Cotacachi.

After reading this, one might wonder why such a spread?

The first book I wrote in the 1970s was “Passport to International Profit”… not “Passport to Ecuador Profit”… not “Passport to US Profit”… not “Passport to European Profit”.

The core message in “Passport to International Profit” was become a one man multinational with a six point command posture which is to:

Live in one country
Bank in a second country
Invest in many countries
Earn in two or more countries
Use a company incorporated in a fifth country
Take a second residence

Let’s take this one step further. To have a fulfilling six point lifestyle posture:

Live in one country you love.
Bank in a second country that is safe and that you really enjoy.
Invest in many countries you would like to explore or feel good about.
Earn in two or more countries you would like to explore or feel good about.
Use a company incorporated in a fifth country that best fits your circumstances.
Take a second residence in a place where you love and want to be.

Merri and I have followed this advice throughout our business career.

ecuador-sunrise

The sun always shines in more than once place.  Sunset from our apartment in San Clemente Ecuador.

We have always had a place in the US…  always in small towns by the way… Naples Florida when it was a small fishing village… Murphy and Lansing North Carolina and now Mt. Dora Florida.

A recent article Smalltown USA Revisted said: Finally we get to revisit Smalltown USA. As Merri and I begin our 42nd year of international investing and business seminars and publishing, we gain great comfort and enthusiasm from the  feel of how our efforts in this last seven year cycle progressed. 

First we are excited that in this upcoming seven years we can expand our focus on Small town USA as well as global investing and Ecuador.

I doubt things will get so bad in the US that Merri and I would not want to live there anymore.

ecuador-sunrise

Follow the sun.  Sunrise from our Blue Ridge North Carolina house.

I have options because I am diversified. Yet the options fit my particular lifestyle and do not cost me anything if events where I live, as expected turn out positive.

The US is central to our family.  Our new home in Florida was chosen in part because it is near our eldest grandson who we feel at age seven can benefit from quality time with us.  The US is a country we love and know and as US citizens we have certain rights even if they have greatly diminished.  Plus the US can be a great place to be.

ecuador-sunrise

Follow your sun. Lake County Florida sunset… our newest home.

However Ecuador is wonderful as well. Ecuador is 3 hours and 45 minutes from the US and we enjoy being in Ecuador for many reasons.

Ecuador gives us great weather in the winter and we love the people and the place. Ecuador is not a bunghole we have chosen because  we dislike or fear some other place.  Ecuador is a place we love.

I doubt that things will get so bad in Ecuador that we will not want to live there.  I doubt even more that things will get so bad in BOTH Ecuador and the US that Merri and I could not stay.

There is always something we do not know, sooo…  just in case, here is a photo from my passport.  This is the stamp you get when you are allowed to reside permanently in the UK.

I can always live in the UK and from there, because of European regulations,  I can pretty well live anywhere in the European Union.

Life in Europe would be our third choice.

ecuador-sunrise

The sun does shine in England… as evidenced by this shot our son Jake took near his home in Bristol.

This also fits into our lifestyle.  Merri and I have both lived there for years. We are both multi lingual… me a bit, Merri more than me.  She can get by in Spanish, German or French.  We have children who live in England and expect to have grandchildren living there some day.

Yet if Europe is our third choice…why are euros our first choice currency that is so overweighted in our portfolio?

We do not have to invest in the country where we live.  I believe that the huge US debt and deficits will drag the US dollar down.   I have even less confidence in the Ecuadorian government’s fiscal capability.

Here is the interesting part of my currency choice. I do not particularly like the euro either.

So why so many euros?

The euro to me is the best of several bad choices.

As shown above. The euro represents the biggest economy in the world.  This is one reason for the choice.  The alternatives are BRIC currencies (Brazil, Russia, India and China).  They are represented (and are likely to increase) in the emerging portion of my portfolio.   But I cannot gain enough confidence in these countries to go beyond a 25% weighting.

So the euro wins by default.

I also like the fuddled aspect of European politics… as I do Ecuadorian politics.  Both have so many diverse interests pulling in opposite directions that the political process is slowed.

No government action seems to be much better than efficient bad activity such as we have seen in the US.

We live in a time of incredible opportunity and freedom. There are probably dozens of places where each of us could enjoy living, investing and doing business.  There is no need to look for the one perfect place.  In fact, such a Utopia probably does not exist.

There are however many places like Smalltown USA, Ecuador and Smalltown Europe where one can enjoy living full or part time and gain lifestyle diversification.

Also do not look for the perfect place to live, or the one and only business to do or the best investment of all forever.   Our circumstances and countries, institutions and relations change.

Diversification gives us a greater ability to change too.

The greatest asset for diversification is the ability to earn wherever you live and to keep your investments safe.

This is why we offer our course Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business as well as this multi currency service.

A clear mind and sound body is also a vital tool for embracing change which is why we have added an optional, extra day (at no added cost) to our upcoming International Investing and Business course. The one day Quantum wealth workshop looks at how to gain super thinking and better health to assist in making wiser investing and business decisions.

We hope you will join us.

Feb. 11-14   Quantum Wealth Florida -International Investing & Internet Business, Mt. Dora, Florida ($749) Couple $999

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

garyheadshot

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

motif

However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.51.59 AM

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.52.12 AM

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Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

tradestops

Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

tradestops

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

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The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Platinum Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Ecuador Diversified


Ecuador is a great place of diversification.

I often get letters from readers like this.

Dear Gary, I have noticed that you have mentioned (a few times) that you and Merri are not residents of Ecuador —– and you do not want to become residents. Would you be kind enough to explain what brought you to this decisions?  Thank you,

My first reply is always “grandchildren!”

Plus there is a limitation. When you become a resident you cannot be out of Ecuador more than  90 days per year during the first two years of your residency.  Merri and I have not been in one place that long for 40 years.

This is our unique quirk.  We are very mobile people… have four homes and move around a lot.

Every person has a unique set of circumstances.  Our relationship with our God, family and purpose in life should be the first determining factors that shape a lifestyle including where we live.

Yet if I did not have grandchildren in the US, I suspect that Merri and I would be living in the same way we do in the Blue Ridge and Ecuador with diversification.

If you have been reading my site for long you may know that since I wrote my first book, Passport to International Profit in the 1970s, my mantra has been to have what I call a “Six Point Command Posture” which is to:

Live in one country
Bank in a second country
Invest in many countries
Earn in two or more countries
Use a company incorporated in a fifth country
Take a second residence

Why diversify and have two places of residence?  The answer is to have options.

Things could go wrong in Ecuador. My impression is that Correa is nowhere as bad as the Western press make him out to be… yet if I am wrong… or some other bad event takes place in Ecuador that makes it unsuitable for us, Merri and I have an option.

I do not want to be stuck with everything invested in Ecuador… or any one place anywhere.

So why be in Ecuador at all?  We love the people… the year round sun… the easy way of life… the access to a holistic natural lifestyle and the low cost of living.

Plus frankly, I am as concerned that things could go wrong in the USA.

There are a number of fundamentals about America that are scary to me.

By now almost any thinking person can see raging inflation looming ahead.  They can see the US dollar falling.  Yet there are many more American problems I keep my eye on… like the loss of our basic rights.  Take for example the rule that the US military cannot operate in police actions on US soil.  This is a good rule… yet look at this.

I don’t have a lot of respect for the daily press. There is too much meaningless, bad news that seems slanted towards helping a few.

For example I have been watching the press building a Swine Flu scare since the beginning of the year.    They are at it right now with… “watch out for swine flu this fall.”   The press, knowingly or not,  is preparing the public to buy into swine flu vaccine.. good for pharmaceuticals… but maybe not so good for the individual.  Whether the press publishes this type of stuff because fear sells papers or for some hidden agenda, I do not know.  I am not a conspiracy theorist… but I do know that history suggest that no republic lasts in a state of harmony for very long.

So I read with great concern an August 8 article in the science section of the New York Times entitled “Climate Change Seen as Threat to U.S. Security”  by John Broder.

Here is an excerpt from the article:  WASHINGTON — The changing global climate will pose profound strategic challenges to the United States in coming decades, raising the prospect of military intervention to deal with the effects of violent storms, drought, mass migration and pandemics, military and intelligence analysts say.

Such climate-induced crises could topple governments, feed terrorist movements or destabilize entire regions, say the analysts, experts at the Pentagon and intelligence agencies who for the first time are taking a serious look at the national security implications of climate change.

Recent war games and intelligence studies conclude that over the next 20 to 30 years, vulnerable regions, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South and Southeast Asia, will face the prospect of food shortages, water crises and catastrophic flooding driven by climate change that could demand an American humanitarian relief or military response.

An exercise last December at the National Defense University, an educational institute that is overseen by the military, explored the potential impact of a destructive flood in Bangladesh that sent hundreds of thousands of refugees streaming into neighboring India, touching off religious conflict, the spread of contagious diseases and vast damage to infrastructure. “It gets real complicated real quickly,” said Amanda J. Dory, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy, who is working with a Pentagon group assigned to incorporate climate change into national security strategy planning.

But a growing number of policy makers say that the world’s rising temperatures, surging seas and melting glaciers are a direct threat to the national interest.

What concerns me in this article is that it could be a warning shot that more American rights are about to be violated.

The implication is that  anything to do with  climate change could be viewed as a threat to national security and that more normal, democratic rights to … privacy… presumption of innocence… right to an attorney etc.  will be reduced in the name of climatic national security.

I hope I am wrong about this.  If not, is there anything I can do about this?  Not much… but live in a positive way that is as good for as many as is possible. I can do my best to be ethical and prepare, so if living conditions shift badly in the US… there is always Ecuador.  Or vice versa. (See more on ethical investing below).

I doubt things will get so bad in the US that I would not want to live here anymore.

I doubt things will get so bad in Ecuador that I would not want to live there anymore.

If I am wrong, I doubt even more, that things will get so bad in both places that I will not want to live in one or the other of these societies.

Just in case, here is a photo from my passport.  This is the stamp you get when you are allowed to reside permanently in the UK.

I can always live in the UK and from there, anywhere in the European Union.

This also fits into our lifestyle as we have children who live in England and expect to have grandchildren living there some day.

The point is I have options because I am diversified. Yet the options fit my particular lifestyle.

The US is central to all my family.  The US is a country I love and know and as a US citizen have certain rights.

Ecuador is 3 hours and 45 minutes from the US and as mentioned we are fulfilled by being in Ecuador for many reasons.

Ecuador gives us great weather in the winter and we love the people and the place. Ecuador is not a bunghole we have chosen because  we dislike or fear some other place.

I repeat. The six point command posture is to:

Live in one country
Bank in a second country
Invest in many countries
Earn in two or more countries
Use a company incorporated in a fifth country
Take a second residence

Let’s take this one step further. To have a fulfilling six point lifestyle posture:

Live in one country you love.
Bank in a second country you really enjoy.
Invest in many countries you would like to explore or feel good about.
Earn in two or more countries you would like to explore or feel good about.
Use a company incorporated in a fifth country that best fits your circumstances.
Take a second residence in a place where you love and want to be.

We live in a time of incredible opportunity and freedom. There are probably dozens of places where each of us could enjoy living, investing and doing business.  There is no need to look for the one perfect place.  In fact, such a Utopia probably does not exist.

There are however many places like Ecuador where you can enjoy living full or part time and gain lifestyle diversification.

Also do not look for the perfect place to live, or the one and only business to do or the best investment of all forever.   Our circumstances and countries, institutions and relations change.

Diversification gives us a greater ability to change too.

The greatest asset for diversification is the ability to earn wherever you live and to keep your investments safe.

This is why we offer our course Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business.

A clear mind and healthy body are also a vital assets… plus a second language is a powerful diversification tool.

This is why I am willing to pay you $300 to attend either our Ecuador Super Thinking plus Spanish seminar in September or our North Carolina International Business & Investing seminar in October.  Sign up for either seminar and I will email you our Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business Course (offered at $299) free plus I’ll knock an extra dollar off your course fee…. to round up the $300 savings.

See details of the two courses below.

Here are delegates at a recent international investing course that I co hosted with Jyske Global Asset Management.

This is why I like banking and investing in London and Copenhagen. They are my favorite European cities.   Plus they are safe places to bank and Merri and I can visit our children when we visit our bankers.

bank-privacy

Here I am with Thomas Fischer of  JGAM at the seminar. While other banks are dumping Americans, Jyske is working harder to enhance its global service for US investors.

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Join Merri, Thomas Fischer of JGAM, our webmaster David Cross and me in North Carolina this October and enroll in our emailed course on how to have a web business free.  Save $300.

Learn more about global investing, how to have an international business and diversification in Ecuador at the course.

Here’s a comment from a Canadian delegate at our last course:  Gary: First let me thank you for an excellent course. We were so fortunate to get an overview of the currency market and the internet business both delivered in understandable language and with logic to back up the ideas.  Although the banking presentation by Thomas was American oriented we Canadians still got great information and know how to go forward with international banking.

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Or join us in Ecuador and learn more about living and retiring in Ecuador.

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two.

Learn more about the power of ethical investing and business here.

Read the full article New York Times entitled “Climate Change Seen as Threat to U.S. Security

The American Dream Goes South at Florida Investment Seminar


I’ll focus on how the American dream is heading south at JGAM’s multi currency seminar in Florida this May.

If looked at one way… the American dream is dead. Let’s ramble through economic history for a moment to see why.

In the early 1980s the US had a challenge… a severe recession from July 1981 to November 1982.  Inflation was high so the Fed  slowed the rate of growth of the money supply and raised interest rates. The federal funds rate rose to 20% by June 1981. The prime interest rate, at the time a highly important economic measure, eventually reached 21.5% in June 1982. Businesses went broke by the drove… 50 percent over the previous year.  Especially hard hit were farmers and real estate developers.

The recession was the most serious recession since the Great Depression.

This was tough but inflation eased and the economy rebounded.  Growth took off again… real growth without bad inflation because the real estate overhang and subsequent bankruptcy of the Savings & Loan industry was dealt with by the Resolution Trust Corporation.

RTC liquidated via auction and a massive sell off to private business, the real estate that had been assets of savings and loan associations that were insolvent.

The US government had the sense then not to try and control these assets.  Entrepreneurs bought the assets for pennies on the dollar and turned the property into viable deals in ways that no government agency ever could.

Japan then had a serious recession and the same opportunity.  There was a real estate and stock bubble in Japan in the 1980s.   Then in 1989 there was a massive withdrawal of confidence. Investment collapsed, causing the Nikkei index to fall more than 60 percent.

The Japanese government however decided that it could provide a fix. the Japanese felt they could not let big Japanese businesses go broke.  Between 1992 and 1995, Japan tried six spending programs totaling 65.5 trillion yen. They cut  taxes in 1994. In 1998 they cut taxes again and launched stimulus packages worth more than 40 trillion yen.,  A year later… another stimulus program. In 2000 11 trillion yen more was spent to stimulate the economy.

Over a decade the Japanese government provided 10 stimulus packages worth more than a 100 trillion yen.   The main result was to ruin the Japanese government’s credit with public debt that exceeds 100 percent of GDP. This is the highest percent of debt of all major nations.

Any other results?  Here is evidence… the main Japanese stock index the Nikkei 225 from 1989 till 2009.  Japanese society is indebted for life and the stock exchange has fallen from over 35,000 to  7,600 in 20 years.

Wow that really worked well… so

power-investing

now the US government has decided to do the same thing.

Last week the government  offered another $30 billion in funds to A.I.G. insurance.  This is the fourth round of aid to the American International Group. The government already owns nearly 80 percent of the insurer’s holding company. How much more can they buy?

This sounds like a good investment since the insurance giant was about to report a $62 billion loss after the government has already given a $60 billion loan, a $40 billion purchase of preferred shares and purchased $50 billion of the company’s toxic assets.

Behind this, the government has invested $50 billion in Citigroup… $45 billion in Bank of America.  The Us auto bailout could cost another 100 billion. More on that in a later message.

This is all taking place as the US economy spirals down at an accelerated pace.

Yet the current administration is basing its spending on calculations that suggest vigorous rates of economic growth in years to come.

They have suggested this economic growth will come in 2010.

I wonder?

There seems to  a disconnect between the Federal projections and fiscal reality.   Current conditions are not yet at the level of the 1980s, when unemployment exceeded 10 percent, but they could be soon.

Moody’s chief economist now places the odds of “a mild depression” at 25 percent. In that view, the unemployment rate would reach 10.5 percent by the end of 2011 — up from 7.6 percent at the end of January — average home prices would fall 20 percent on top of the 27 percent they have plunged already, and losses in the financial system would more than triple, to $3.7 trillion.

Yet President Obama calls this a “once in a generation” opportunity and proposed a 10-year budget that overhauls health care, arrests global warming and expands the federal role in education.

How to pay for it?   Tax more corporations and the wealthiest taxpayers.

Wrong!  Higher tax will simply kill business or drive it abroad.  What a  good idea to chase away the last of the success.

The President said  he would shrink annual deficits.  His explanation is that he will increase revenue from rich individuals and polluting industries, reduce war costs and assume a good rate of economic growth by 2010.

The rich will stop working or leave the US.  The polluters will move to Mexico or China or wherever.   The high rate of economic growth will not appear.  Stopping the war will help… but not enough.

Technology means that politicians can no longer ignore the global market and tax its citizens to death.

Take for example what is happening in Ecuador.  Remittances sent by  Ecuadorians who work abroad fell 22 percent in the last quarter of 2008.

$643.9 million was sent from October to December 2008. This is $181.7 million less than in Oct.to Dec.2007.

A similar drop was experienced in the third quarter of 2008 and is caused by the global financial crisis and especially the economic slowdown in the United States, where it is estimated 1.5 million Ecuadorians live and work.

The U.S. employment rate has crashed especially in manufacturing and construction which employ a large number of Ecuadorians.

The same is true in  Spain – where 600,000 Ecuadorians live. this is the second-leading destination for Ecuadorians.

This means that there are more Ecuadorians to serve for less in Ecuador.  This forces the Ecuador cost of living down down.

So if you are an American who is about to be super taxed… where would you choose to live?  Our farm manager sent us this note recently, “We had 4 inches of snow in China Grove.”

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Would you rather live there and pay more tax or…

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enjoy open air dining as Merri and are doing here in our Cotacachi hotel courtyard with Dan Prescher and Suzan Haskins or…

multi-currency-investing-florida-course

would you rather enjoy a mountain train ride as these…

multi-currency-investing-florida-course new Cotacachi residents are doing…  passing through green mountains  and blue skies.  Getting a sun burn.

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The is the train from Ibarra to Salinas Ecuador.  Would you rather be taxed extra to be in this pool or…

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be here on Ecuador’s coast with tax advantages?

multi-currency-investing-florida-course

Which view will the rich prefer?  This in the US or…

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this… especially if this San Clemente Ecuador ocean view costs much, much less?

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Where would I prefer to walk with my hound?  Here in sub zero temperatures or

multi-currency-investing-florida-course

here in Cotacachi Ecuador…especially if I am taxed less and the cost of living is much lower and government interference in my life is less?

multi-currency-investing-florida-course

Technology and the global market gives us as individuals enormous power to live where and as we choose that politicians can no longer ignore.

The government’s attitude to increase taxes on those who work hard could turn the existing brain drain from the US into a brain torrent.

In short there are many reasons I see that suggest the economic mess will  last for years in the US,  just as it has in Japan.

Recently, Warren Buffett wrote in his company’s annual report that “the economy will be in shambles, throughout 2009, and, for that matter, probably well beyond.”

This is not the picture we expect of the American dream.  However the picture is not bad for all.  Not all Italians became poor when Rome fell.  Italy is still a great place to live.  There are still millions of Japanese who have thrived over the past 15 years of Japanese recession.  The end of the America dream does not have to be the end of your dream.

In the US we can expect the rich to get richer… the poor poorer.   We can see why from our study of Power Distance Index.  We looked at PDI, and what it is, in a recent message about JGAM’s multi currency seminar.

There is more about Power Distance Index at http://www.clearlycultural.com which says:

Hofstede’s Power Distance Index measures the extent to which the less powerful members of organizations and institutions (like the family) accept and expect that power is distributed unequally. This represents inequality (more versus less), but defined from below, not from above. It suggests that a society’s level of inequality is endorsed by the followers as much as by the leaders.

For example, Germany has a 35 on the cultural scale of Hofstede’s analysis. Compared to Arab countries where the power distance is very high (80) and Austria where it very low (11), Germany is somewhat in the middle. Germany does not have a large gap between the wealthy and the poor, but have a strong belief in equality for each citizen. Germans have the opportunity to rise in society.

On the other hand, the power distance in the United States scores a 40 on the cultural scale. The United States exhibits a more unequal distribution of wealth compared to German society. As the years go by it seems that the distance between the ‘have’ and ‘have-nots’ grows larger and larger.

The trick then is to not accept the PDI from the lower end. Let me explain.

Excerpts from 2007 article by a Stefan Bach , Giacomo Corneo  and Viktor Steiner at www.voxeu.org entitled German income inequality outlines an idea.  The article says:

Paul Krugman frequently mentions that America’s super rich make the 19th Century wealthy look poor. “We know what John D. Rockefeller, the richest man in Gilded Age America, made in 1894 … $1.25 million, almost 7,000 times the average per capita income in the United States at the time.” Krugman wrote. ”But that makes him a mere piker by modern standards … James Simons, a hedge fund manager, took home $1.7 billion, more than 38,000 times the average income.”

Surely such extremes cannot happen on Continental Europe with its social market economics and social solidarity. The authors of Policy Insight No. 4 shows that although income inequality in Germany is a long way from reaching US proportions, the trend is in that direction. Germany rich are getting richer, and its super-rich are getting super-richer.

In other words as a society progresses, those with power get richer while the majority of  the population become poorer.

Note above that power is determined  from below, not from above. It suggests that a society’s level of inequality is endorsed by the followers as much as by the leaders.”

Power is an illusion that keeps most investors and business people depressed while a few gain from this social falsification.

The internet destroys this illusion. The web gives us all power!  Today we have as much opportunity as the rich to gain from the changes that this economic correction will bring.

This is why Merri, our webmaster and I have created a new course on how to build a web business with a webmaster.  More on this in a moment.

First what you can do as an investor or with your own business.

One answer we saw above is to live in a better lower cost environment like Ecuador.

Another answer is to be a multi currency investor. Despite America’s government spending , the dollar has been gaining, particularly against European currencies. The euro slipped to under $1.26, nearing a two-year low and down from a high of almost $1.60. This is caused as fearful investors jump into 10-year Treasury bonds… which have been shown to be terrible long term investments.   All the US government spending means that the US dollar will fall. But against what?

The euro is not a trustworthy currency now. A March 1, 2009 New York Times article by Steven Erlanger and Stephen Castle entitled “Growing Economic Crisis Threatens the Idea of One Europe” explains why.  Here is an excerpt from that article:

The leaders of the European Union gathered Sunday in Brussels in an emergency summit meeting that seemed to highlight the very worries it was designed to calm: that the world economic crisis has unleashed forces threatening to split Europe into rival camps.

With uncertain leadership and few powerful collective institutions, the European Union is struggling with the strains this crisis has inevitably produced among 27 countries with uneven levels of development.

Whether Europe can reach across constituencies to create consensus, however, has been an open, and suddenly pressing, question.

“The European Union will now have to prove whether it is just a fair-weather union or has a real joint political destiny,” said Stefan Kornelius, the foreign editor of the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung. “We always said you can’t really have a currency union without a political union, and we don’t have one. There is no joint fiscal policy, no joint tax policy, no joint policy on which industries to subsidize or not. And none of the leaders is strong enough to pull the others out of the mud.”

Thomas Klau, Paris director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, an independent research and advocacy group, said, “This crisis affects the political union that backs the euro and of course the E.U. as a whole, and solidarity is at the heart of the debate.”

“All of that is in doubt if the cornerstone of the E.U. — its internal market, economic union and solidarity — is in question,” said Ronald D. Asmus, a former State Department official who runs the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund.

If the the euro is a good currency for diversification, which currencies are?

Our multi currency course helps you learn how to diversify into safe currencies.  Our studies currently suggest that the Danish, Swedish, Norwegian kroner and Canadian dollar make sense. For example beginning in March the Swedish kroner hit a new record low. The Eastern European problems are having an adverse impact on the Swedish banks.   Also the Norwegian currency is a good technical buy.

You can join us to understand why these currencies make sense by subscribing to our on line multi currency course.

You can also join us for a currency review at JGAM’s Naples Florida investment course May 29 to 31, 2009.  This course is $499 ($750 for two) but free to those who have subscribed to our on line multi currency course.

Another way you can attend JGAM Florida seminar free is to subscribe to our course on how to have a web based business.   You can enroll in this special course for $299 and attend the JGAM course in Naples free.

Here is a special offer on this course “Tangled Web – How to Have a Web Business“.

Or join us for an upcoming course in North Carolina or Ecuador.

Gary

Future 2009 courses

May 29-31  JGAM Multi Currency investment Seminar Naples Florida

June 12-14 Shamanic Mingo Tour
June 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
June 18-21 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 3-6 Ecuador Import Export Expedition
July 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
July 10-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two

Cotacachi Tours


We have over two dozen Cotacachi & Ecuador tours and courses scheduled in 2009. Many have asked what they are like…so let’s take a tour of the tour…then I’ll share an investing tip.

Our November International Business & Investing course began yesterday…so we’ll follow this group. This is a typical schedule…beginning with a course, then followed with an Adean real estate tour and concluding with a real estate tour on the Ecuador coast.

We try to schedule three courses together like this so delegates can choose one two or all three tours…whatever works best for them and this allows us to provide substantial discounts on the second and third tour.

Most delegates arrive in Quito the night before. Alberto, Steve and a few of our staff drive up to meet everyone and deliver them to a hotel (usually Hotel Quito or Radisson – we negotiate a discount for everyone so the hotel that offers the best deal gets the business) where they spend the night.

Next morning they all meet and have a ride around Quito before heading north to Cotacachi.

Before the main group is arrives, the staff at our Inn goes into hyerdrive bringing in fresh food. Here is our manager Franklin with makings for fresh vegetable soup.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

Consuelo and her helper follow.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

They fill up the bodega. Here is our chef Santiago checking the inventory.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

while his assistant Alberto starts the soup.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

A few early arrivals are already in the courtyard waiting and talking. Here a couple are discussing economics with Peter Laub of Jyske Bank.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

Eduardo and his assistant, prepares juice and quinoa cake for everyone to enjoy.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

This time Eduardo has created a mango alfalfa drink..delicious.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

Finally the bus arrives.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

Delegates disembark and the courtyard comes alive.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

Many friendships are made. Guests dine, sit round the fireplace and discuss what they expect…what they want…what they think we’ll learn.

Tomorrow we begin next door in the Museum’s meeting room at nine.

Cotacachi tours

Our hotel, of course, is fully booked so we place delagtes at La Mirage, several hostels as well as condos near the hotel.

Subject matter in the course begins with global economics and were to invest now. We have several speakers who join me. In this case Peer Laub of Jyske Global Asset Management (JGAM).

We look at the long term economic fundamentals at work and how investors can react now.

This week JGAM pointed out:

The main attention this week was the US presidential election. Up to the election we saw markets in Asia acting with euphoria due to positive signs of improved conditions in the credit markets as well as the prospect of Obama winning office. Europe and Wall Street continued with the positive sentiment and Tuesday became the strongest presidential election day rally in history. After the election celebrations, markets woke up to the outlook of a severe economic contraction and the euphoria turned into panic selling, with declines up to -10% over two days. Bank of England (BoE) chocked the market Thursday with an aggressive cut of 150 basis points on the key interest rate. This move sparked a mid day rally for 45 minutes until the European Central Bank (ECB) disappointed the market with only a 50 basis point reduction. The EUR/USD has been very volatile over the week ranging from 1,2520 to 1,3120 now trading at 1,2797. We anticipate other central banks to follow the US and EU with reductions over the next few weeks. “

Then we looked at how this volatility and lowering interest rates would create opportunity in bond markets…my message was “a golden bond opportunity is coming.”

Today we will be lookng at this as the course continues.

Until next message good global investing.

Gary

Join us at a course in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Jan. 16-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Jan. 22-23 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Jan. 24-27 Coastal Real Estate Tour

We’ll visit the Otavalo markets.

Ecuador-Project

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ
Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Cotacachi-meeting

Courses are centered around this open air courtyard in our colonial inn El Meson de las Flores.

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
March 10-15 Ecuador Export Expedition
March 16-19 Coastal Real Estate Tour

You are also invited to tag along to the beach where we visit all types of Ecuador beach property for sale. Here is one f our previous tours enjoying a visit to Vistazul condos.

Ecuador-Project

Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our entire schedule of 26 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009.

Encore Careers


Encore Careers are Tranquil and good.

Can’t retire?

Good.

Enter stage left. Time far an encore.

Better still, time for an encore career.

There is nothing an actor loves better than a raving audience and a grand encore.

We are all actors on the stage of life and no one wants to be tired. So why re-tire. Would it not be better to re-new with an encore?

This is our self declared Anti Panic Week in part because many boomers think they can no longer retire.
We see this in the media al the time.

A July 1 USA Today article entitled “For many, golden years mean less travel, more work” by
Sandra Block says that many older Americans had long envisioned retirement as a period of adventure — a time to indulge in leisurely lifestyles, with frequent trips out of town to see relatives and explore places they’d never seen.

The article continues: “That was then. Now, with food and health care costs surging and fuel prices soaring, many retirees have been forced to downsize their dreams of travel. An airline ticket to visit the grandchildren costs about twice as much as it did a year ago, with further price increases projected. And retirees who have saved for decades for the chance to travel overseas are finding that the anemic dollar has made Europe prohibitively expensive.”

I say “So what!”

Tuesday’s message reviewed ideas stimulated by the thinking of Dr. James Ephraim Lovelock, an independent controversial scientist, author, researcher, environmentalist and futurist, the father of climate change science.

Just about everything Lovelock has predicted has come true. Some thoughts we can derive from his thinking include: – Focus on innovation not conservation – Invest in technology – Prepare to adapt to new ways of living – Crisis will bring a post consumer society – Human lives are most fulfilling when driven by a sense of purpose – We will soon be forced to live more purposeful lives – There is always reason to be optimistic – Enjoy life.

Ideas that will run the future are not found in technology of the past.

Western society has been fed…and accepted, a lot of nonsense about how to live. These bad ideas have created many problems in our lives and those of the world.

Here are seven bad ideas that the majority has probably accepted.

#1: We can eat fast food and drink carbonated sugary drinks.
#2: We must have health insurance.
#3: We should drive not walk…its more efficient. We should have a car.
#4: We need to be entertained.
#5: Respect and fulfillment come from consumption.
#6: We need to stay on top of the NEWS.
#7: Retirement is a worthy goal and good.

Numbers one and two can harm our body. Numbers three through five can also harm the world. Number six overloads our mind with uselessness and number seven leads our lives in the wrong direction.

The idea that we should work too hard and have too much just so we can have “the good life” by retiring struggles against too many of nature’s laws. Instead of benefiting retirees it’s mostly good for those who “work too hard for” and those who get the savings.
If the three Lovelock stimulated thoughts below are correct, we not only won’t want to retire, we won’t need to.

#1: Crisis will bring a post consumer society.
#2: We will soon be forced to live more purposeful lives.
#3: Human lives are most fulfilling when driven by a sense of purpose.

Consumption will be less important, and we can have a next career that is a fulfilling process filled with a sense of purposes.

We can see this already happening in a June 18, 2008 USA Today article entitled “Boomers’ new jobs give back” by Janet Kornblum.

The article says: “Baby boomers who came of age in the era of John F. Kennedy’s civic call to arms are now, in the second half of their lives, not just asking themselves what they can do for their country, but they’re actually doing it.

“A new telephone and Internet survey, touted as the first of its kind, indicates millions of boomers are either quitting their old jobs or coming out of retirement to pursue new careers that not only give them personal meaning but also contribute to society.

“The survey at civicventures.org (margin of error: plus or minus 3 percentage points) by the non-profit MetLife Foundation and San Francisco Civic Ventures, a national think tank, shows 6% to 9.5% of adults age 44 to 70 are pursuing ‘encore careers’ that give them both an income and meaning. That is 5.3 million to 8.4 million people. And half of those not already in encore careers say they are interested in moving into such jobs.”

Merri’s and my encore career allows us to help the poor in Ecuador.  Our hotel provides free lunches for Ecuador students on outings. Here is a group being fed.

free-lunch

We also feed the homeless and poor. No one goes away with an empty bowl. Here is one of our regular vistors.

Poor-Ecuador

Here is an entire small community that our hotel helps support.

poor-ecuador-family

This giving brings great joy to Merri and me.

Save $130

Inflation makes multi currency investing more important and more difficult both at the same time.

Inflation forces banks to charge more for their banking services or to raise minimums. Inflation destroys currencies which causes governments to make it harder for its citizens to to invest abroad.

This inflation problem is so acute that it is now quite a task for small American investors to invest abroad.

Non Americans should not feel complacent. The US is exporting its excess of regulations and rules.

Privacy is diminishing at a rapid pace. Do not buy into it.

A June 28, 2008 New York Times article by Charlie savage entitled “U.S. and Europe Near Agreement on Private Data” says: “The United States and the European Union are nearing completion of an agreement allowing law enforcement and security agencies to obtain private information — like credit card transactions, travel histories and Internet browsing habits — about people on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.

Read more about this at Inflation and Multi Currency Investing which also shows how to subscribe to our multi currency course at a $130 reduction.

Whether you want more tranquility through investing or through an encore business, being global will help you gain tranquil wealth from the same technology that creates stress to most others.

Until next message remember we have never had more and opportunity is greater than ever before.

I look forward to sharing it with you.

Gary

Learn how to create a happy, international, encore business.

Join us and stay at our farm for Susan Rotman’s business intuition course.
Enjoy the mountain cool and summer views as you learn.

Study our online correspondence courses:

International Business Made EZ

“Self Fulfilled”, my Self Publishing Course

Or join our Ecuador Import Export Tour this October.
Here is what a reader recently wrote about the Ecuador export course:

My name is Bonnie Keough.

In March 2006, I went to Ecuador to attend Gary and Merri’s import/export course.

I was hoping to find items to bring back to the States and sell.

I love to travel and was looking for business ideas that would enable me to do that.

I had never been to South America (never even considered it) before so it was an adventure. I didn’t know what to expect, but I had been reading Gary’s newsletter for a while and I was impressed with the Scott’s honesty and integrity. They don’t promise overnight success or try to sell you a business opportunity. They share their wealth of experiences, open doors for you and educate you on the possibilities and opportunities available. It’s up to you to implement what you learn.

I found so much more than high quality products in Ecuador, the people I deal with are kind, hard-working folks who truly appreciate my business and I appreciate their honesty and skills. I have returned to Ecuador 6 more times since my first trip and each time I leave I’m anxious to return.

I always personally select all of the items I sell. By doing this, I’ve learned a lot about quality, prices and sources and I enjoy interacting with the people. But it is hard work and not everyone enjoys that aspect of the business. You will have to decide how much you want to participate.

Don’t expect to find mass produced items in Ecuador. If you have an idea for a product, it is a great place to have items custom made. It’s possible to find high quality labor intensive pieces, such as hand knit sweaters or hand woven rugs, at very reasonable prices.

If you have a genuine interest in pursuing an import business, whether in Ecuador or elsewhere, I’m sure you will benefit from the import course. It’s a great introduction to the country and opportunities available there and provides a background on the nuts and bolts of the business. It opened a doorway to a new life for me.

Please feel free to email me if you have more questions.
Bonnie Keough, www.sunandmountains.com

Join our Ecuador Import Export Tour this October.

Feast Now Famine – Multi Currency Investments


Shots like this of an Ecuador food market and multi currency investments grow in importance…beause the world’s cupboards are getting bare!

Ecuador-Food
Multi currency investments help investors adapt to change.  Multi currency investments are especially valuable now because change is here…big time.

Change brings distortions. Distortions create problems and problems create opportunity.

Messages about multi currency investments over the last two days have looked at a problem that had been forgotten for many years…having enough food.

US debt creates a falling US dollar.  This is why multi currency investments are important.  A falling dollar creates inflation. Yesterday’s message showed us how soon twenty dollar bill will not be enough to buy a gallon of milk, a dozen eggs and a small loaf of bread.

This is the tip of the iceberg.  Beyond the greenback’s demise there is a more serious underlying supply and demand fundamental…there simply is not enough food right now.

Investors need more than just multi currency investments.

This was not the global position in past decades. In the 1980s, the U.S. Department of Agriculture was saddled with mountains of surplus cheese, corn and other foods that it socked away in warehouses and even caves.

As recently as 2003, the USDA had to buy so much powdered milk to support dairy prices that beleaguered officials shipped some to U.S. ranchers for cattle feed.
The European Union farm program had lakes of excess wine and mountains of cheese and butter stored.

Yet a recent USA Today article says: “While the previous surpluses were costly and sharply criticized, much of the food found its way to the poor, here and abroad. Today, says USDA Undersecretary Mark Keenum, “Our cupboard is bare.

“U.S. government food surpluses have evaporated because, with record high prices, farmers are selling their crops on the open market, not handing them over to the government through traditional price-support programs that make up for deficiencies in market price.

“Worldwide, food prices have risen 45% in the past nine months, posing a crisis for millions, says the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.

“Because of the current economics of food, and changes in federal farm subsidy programs designed to make farmers rely more on the markets, large U.S. reserves may be gone for a long time.

“The upshot: USDA has almost no extra food to supplement the billions in cash payments it spends to combat hunger at home and in developing nations.”

This is a huge problem and hence grand opportunity.  The solution is not simply making more money with multi currency investments…to buy enough food either.   You cannot be rich, happy, successful and full when those around you are hungry.  Not only is this inhumane…hunger and thirst are motivations that will destroy law and order faster than any other!

Investors have to put their multi currency investments in businesses that will bring fundamental changes in the way the world produces food.

I noticed this recently when at the Parsons Feed Store buying laying mash for our hens.  The phone rang and the clerk seemed exasperated. “No we do not have any,” she almost shouted in the phone.  “Seed potatoes.” she said. “Everyone is calling for them and we have been out for weeks”.   I asked, “Was the supply short this year?”   “No,” she said. “We had two shipments. Everyone is just buying more.”

There is an opportunity somewhere here.  I haven’t figured out what it is, but know it is there.

Take, as another example, shares of Vestas Wind Systems. We follow these shares in our multi currency course and they have been a huge winner.  One reason behind the food shortage is that many governments incorrectly promoted food (such as corn) as a source of alternate energy.  This helped skew the food supply down faster than demographics would have done.

Those who change, adapt and invest in solutions to problems are those who will profit.  This is why we are examining seven multi currency shares including Vestas in our multi currency course.

Until next message, may food always be abundant for you.

Gary

Learn more about multi currency investing at our multi currency portfolio course.

This is also why we are adding sessions on nutrition at our upcoming intuition course.

Here are delegates at a previous course enjoying a nutrition lesson in our teaching kitchen at the farm.

Ecuador Shamans

I love gardening.  This may become a hobby that goes beyond handy.  Folks round here still know how to feed themselves without the big city.  So do Merri and me!

Here is a previous year’s sunflower crop.  This was always for the beauty of the flowers. Now I am thinking about nutritional value instead.

Sunflowers

This course will be conducted here in Ashe county where we live on a farm in part to be sure we have enough food by growing our own.  Hopefully part of our squash crop will be ready to serve. We aways have great pumpkins and squash.  Here is a previous crop.

Squash

Learn more about the food benefits of  Ecuador travel and living.

This is one reason we love Ecuador as our second home. There is such an abundance of good food.  The rich volcanic soil, full sun and lage rural economy means that almost everyone knows how to feed themselves. Here is a shot at Cotacachi market

Ecuador-food-stall

There is an article about this at Cotacachi Market – Quality living at cheap cost

See dates for our Ecuador tours and courses below:

Coastal Real Estate Tour

Ecuador’s fishing fleet  make eating fresh seafood easy, inexpensive and good!
Cotacachi food tas;

We bring fresh seafood to our hotel as well. Here I am with Merri and our chef Santiago at El Meson de las Flores after visiting Ibarra seafood market.

Gary Scott

Super Thinking + Spanish Course

Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Ecuador Shaman Tour

Ecuador Import Export Course

See discounts for attending more than one course.