Tag Archive | "EUR"

Ecuador Banking & Currency Excerpts


Ecuador banking for gringos can be made easy.

You can use banks like this without even opening a bank account.  We’ll see why in a moment.  First…

Ecuador-multi-currency-atm

First this is day three in Ecuador health week.

Ecuador Health Tip #3  is to simply eat more simply and eat less.

Good nutrition is a vital part of good health. But what nutritionally is right?

Having lived around the globe, I have learned so many schools of thought on nutrition (starting with McDonald’s my primary food provider when in high school and I’m still paying for that bad habit) to shamanic Andean nutritional routines., that my head spins when I think about it. Plus Merri and I nrolled in a doctorate degree program (not for the degree but the knowledge) on holistic nutrition.

Program for Health

The problem is, the more one reads, the more the experts seem to contradict themselves! Some say eat raw, others only cooked. Some say something is good others bad and the list of conflicts goes on and on.

Many of them are right, but the crunch is they are only right part of the time, or in some instances or only if an entire program is followed. And of course, most of them don’t take into account body types, which for us is of utmost importance.

Merri’s and my program for health falls into three categories-nutrition, exercise, consciousness and purification. The three parts are so intertwined that one cannot look at any one of them totally alone.

These categories wrap around themselves in every material and consciousness aspect of health. For example, what we watch on TV is a consciousness aspect of nutrition. Our entire being has to digest what we watch, see and hear. So what we see is a type of nutrition. What we see, hear, smell, feel and taste as we eat (and even before a meal) also impacts the digestion of food. Digestion works with every sense and affects the nutrition we receive.

So the rule of KEEP IT SIMPLE seems to be one that almost all the systems I have blundered across agree on.

Certainly a secret of slowing the aging process is do not eat too much!

This sounds so simple but the fact is almost every diet book in the world tiptoes around this simple fact. Many claim you can eat as much as you want on a diet. Rubbish. The only way that scientific research has ever shown to live a longer life is by cutting back calories.

Biologist Siegfried Hekimi learned how to lengthen the average lifespan of tiny transparent worms from 15 to 20 days (the equivalent of increasing a human lifespan from 75 to 100) and confirmed what many scientific studies have found. There is a link between metabolism and lifespan. Eating less can slow the metabolism down.

Our Andean shaman stressed this fact in many ways.  As mentioned in tip #2, I once asked him his most important rule for nutrition. “Eat only on an empty stomach,” was his reply.

This is hard to do if you eat too much. Your blood sugar rockets (from all the food). This causes your adrenalin to kick in to keep the blood sugar in balance. This causes the blood sugar to plummet. This makes you hungry way before the body has had a chance to digest its meal.

There are more reasons. The body is very adept at confirming to our circumstances by creating habits. We eat a lot and the stomach is stretched. The body worries about this and grows the stomach. The bigger stomach instills the habit for more food to fill it. Habits are hard to break except because we are subject to the law of diminishing returns, we want to eat more and more and more.

That’s a universal rule. Let’s look at some specifics. The Andean nutritional system keeps a good fat, protein carbohydrate balance. The Andean shamanic health diet  does not mix sweet with salt. They avoid fermented foods and divide foods into three group: sweet, savory and neutral. You can mix sweet and neutral or salt and neutral but not sweet and savory.

Melon and pineapple are only eaten alone. The Shamanic way is to have light sweet meals morning and evening and full savory meal at noon.

Keeping life simple makes sense when it comes to Ecuador living and banking.   This excerpt of a full report on Ecuador banking, just sent to our Ecuador Living subscribers shows why. Here is the excerpt.

Ecuador’s currency is the US dollar so no currency exchange is required coming or going.  This makes banking easy to begin…but how can one operate money wise on a day to day basis.

There are several ways to bank in Ecuador without having an Ecuador bank account.

Let me add to begin.  I do not trust Ecuador banks. I  lost a fair amount of money in Ecuador banks when they crashed in 1999.  Once bitten twice shy.  plus it is hard for anyone without a resident visa (which Merri and I do not have nor desire) to open an Ecuador bank account.   There are better ways.

One way is  to use ATMs.  Merri and I never had an ATM card in the US but found that this is a good way to access cash here. We also have a safe in all our rooms in Meson de las Flores. Most  hotels  offer free safety deposit boxes so when we arrive, we just put all our cash, wallet with credit cards and passports in our safe box. Then we just have a bit of cash like $20 or so in our pockets.

Ecuador ATM’s

Merri and I live off of ATMs in Ecuador for our day to day cash needs..

ATM’s are in almost every village in Ecuador and are compatible with international credit cards.

Visa credit cards work at ATMs operated by Bank of Guayaquil, Pichincha, Produbanco and Banco Pacífico. Each ATM shows the logos of which cards can be used on that machine. We use our regular ATM cash card issued by our Florida bank at this Bank of Pichincha branch (shown above) on Cotacachi’s second smaller plaza.

Ecuador-multi-currency-plaza

The plaza is pristine because it is maintained by the bank.

Ecuador-multi-currency-atm-sign

The bank is next to the police station and the second smaller Cathedral.

Ecuador-multi-currency-atm-cathedral

Bes ure to see further on what they are doing behind the bank.  There are two Cathedrals in Cotacachi and one bank…a nice ratio.

However there are three Cotacachi ATMs. The other two are on the main street 10th of August. Here is one of them…the newest of the three.

cotacachi-road-work

We are allowed to take $500 a day from the Pichincha ATM and $300 a day from the others.

Jyske ATM Banking in Ecuador

One nifty way to combine global investment management bank and your cash needs in Ecuador is through Copenhagan with Jyske Bank’s VISA debit cards.

This card makes it easy to access cash from your Danish bank account.

Why a Danish bank?  As mentioned earlier I do not trust Ecuador banks. On the other hand Danish banks are among the safest in the world.

First let’s examine safety.  How safe?

In recent years Denmark has been rated by Standard & Poor’s as one of the safest country in the world in which to bank.

Jyske Bank is well established with a history of over 100 years. Jyske is Denmark ’s second largest bank, with 450,000 clients in Denmark and over 30,000 abroad.

Jyske Bank has over 23 billion euros in assets and also happens to be one of the leading currency traders in the world. Many other large banks use Jyske to handle their off hour currency positions. This means that Jyske is huge when it comes to multi currency activity. In fact their turnover reaches $50 billion dollars a day.

Bank Safety Point #1: A recent Yahoo Canada article shows a survey by the World Economic Forum listed five safest countries in which to bank.

Canada
Sweden
Luxembourg
Australia
Denmark

So Denmark is a safe place to bank. Now let’s look at Jyske Bank’s safety rating.

Bank Safety Point #2: On October 10 2008, Moody’s affirmed Jyske Bank’s long-term Aa2 rating. This decision came despite the deteriorated economic prospects in Denmark, particularly in respect of the property market.

Bank Safety Point #3: Also on Friday 10 October 2008, the Danish Parliament passed a bill that secured all deposits and unsecured claims against losses in Danish financial institutions. The rating of the Kingdom of Denmark is Aaa/AAA with Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s respectively.

The people at Jyske are common sense bankers. They had minimal sub prime exposure when that scandal broke. Jyske had zero Madoff exposure.

That’s safe!

How about service?  First of all,  Jyske can manage your wealth. For anyone with $50,000 or more to invest Jyske can buy, sell and hold investments from all over the world, stocks, liquid assets, bonds and commodities. They provide full managed or advisory only services.  They even lend in multiple currencies to leverage investments for investors with $100,000 or more.   Almost no bank in North or Latin America can do this.

Once you have Jyske caring for your wealth, they can then provide a steady stream of cash when you need it…via a global debit card.

Jyske Ecuador & Global Service.

Even US clients who have managed accounts at Jyske Global Asset Management  (JGAM) can have a VISA debit card.

JGAM opens a specific on demand account with Jyske Bank so funds can be made available via the card.

These cards can provide access to cash anywhere in the world…including Ecuador.

Here is Cotacachi’s third ATM.

cotacachi-road-work

Jyske offers three different cards to match different needs.   Each type of card provides considerable flexibility.

You can choose to have the card denominated in a number of currencies based on your choice.  An account is created at Jyske bank in the same currency. No matter the account currency,  the cards can be nominated in euro, US dollar,  British pound, Swiss franc, Swedish or Danish kroner.

If you have have dollars invested and are drawing dollars in Ecuador, you can eliminate forex costs by nominating your card in US dollars.

For more information US investors contact Thomas Fischer of Jyske Global Asset Management at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors contact Rene Mathys of Jyske Bank at mathys@jbpb.dk

You can read the entire report on how to protect against Ecuador banks, Ecuador bank fees and access money in Ecuador …to pay bills, live and invest  etc. as an Ecuador Living subscriber.

Keeping your investing simple in these complex and difficult times can also be easy as the excerpt below form our multi currency course explains.  Here is the excerpt.

Inflation…to be or not to de… Deflate that is. That is the question…we must answer to invest correctly in the days ahead.

I lean further towards inflation over deflation each day.  We can see it coming…governments (led by the USA) spending so much money they do not have, that currencies lose purchasing power.

Here is another inflationary note from the New York Times in an article yesterday that said:

President-elect Barack Obama plans to include about $300 billion in tax cuts for workers and businesses in his economic recovery program, advisers said Sunday, as his team seeks to win over Congressional skeptics worried that he was too focused on government spending.

The legislation Mr. Obama is developing with Congressional Democrats will devote about 40 percent of the cost to tax cuts, including his centerpiece campaign promise to provide credits up to $500 for most workers, costing roughly $150 billion. The package will also include more than $100 billion in tax incentives for businesses to create jobs and invest in equipment or factories.

This may seem like really good news for business, but bad news for the US dollar and hence inflation.   Spending that is not matched by production is inflationary.

For most people, this is bad.

Yet inflation creates fortunes for those of us who know what to do.

There are three ways to profit and stay ahead of inflation. Multi currency investments in distorted shares….distorted commodities and distorted real estate.

TO KEEP MY GLOBAL INVESTING SIMPLE, I BREAK DOWN MY INVESTMENTS INTO THREE PORTIONS, personal…pension…and property.

Yesterday’s lesson looked at my current personal investments to see how I am reacting to this scenario.  We saw that our current asset  breakdown in our personal liquid portfolio is:
Cash Accounts 36%
Bonds 64%

This cash and bonds have a currency breakdown of

Canadian dollar       9%
Euro                         18%
British pound          3%
Hungarian florin   19%
Norway Kroner        9%
NZ dollar                   9%
Sweden kroner       26%
US dollar                   8%

We asked …why all cash and bonds if I believe in inflation?

You may even wonder more when you see  my pension portfolio breakdown.
The asset breakdown of my pension liquid investments are:

This portfolio is more aggressive than my personal liquid portfolio, with shares, emerging shares and emerging currencies.

You can see my pension portfolio breakdown and why I  keep the investments with the lowest potential profit in my personal account since profits and the high risk investments in my pension as a Multi Currency Portfolio Course

Until next message, may all your money be easy to access in a simple way!

Gary

Join us at a course in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Cotacachi speeds ahead! Yesterday we saw how a new road was transformed in a day.

MERRI AND I WALKED BACK AT 6:40 AM THIS MORNING AND THEY HAD MADE ENORMOUS PROGRESS AND WERE ALREADY ON THE JOB.

cotacachi-road-work

They already have sidewalks complete and…

cotacachi-road-work

are laying the brick pavers. I expect they’ll have made a huge impact by tomorrow and will report then. he workers were tickled when I showed them their picture.

cotacachi-road-work

Jyske Gobal Asset Management will join us Feb. 13-15 for our course International Business & Investing Made EZ

Join us at a course in Cotacachi to learn more about multi currency investing or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Feb. 9-11  Beyond Logic Simple Ways to More Wealth and Better Health

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ

Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 10-15 Ecuador Export Expedition

March 16-19 Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one$1,349 for two

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one$1,799 for two

Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our entire schedule of 27 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009 and how to attend as many of them as you like FREE.

The course fee includes meeting at Quito airport (day before the
course)…transportation (by group bus) to Cotacachi and back to Quito.
Course fee does not include air are. accommodations, food or individual transportation.

Profit From the 2011 Economic Disaster


Are We 33 Months From Real Economic Disaster?

Dear International Friend,

Many investors worry about the current economic downturn…yet there is a destructive investment fundamental that is now so powerful it overwhelms all other factors that affect investing.  It has such power it could destroy most investors in North America and make the current recession pale in comparison. The frightening part is it could unleash its destruction as soon as October 2011!  I want to share what, when and when this disaster could happen.

Then I want to share how you can make a fortune from NOW THROUGH 2012 and during this crash.

Before I explain how you can reap profits never before imagined and sidestep the upcoming disaster that will wipe out so many investors…..we need to look at some facts.

These are facts, figures and statistics that will truly horrify anyone who even keeps a modest checkbook.  The figures give rise to such great concern that we can see the horrible predicament into which we are being led.

Let me prepare you by assuring you that every economic crash is simply a shifting of fortunes.  Just as the depression of the 1930s created many millionaires, so will this crash.  Once you understand the problems, you can find easy ways to protect against them and become one of those who are enriched rather than ruined during the transition.

Part of this debacle will come because the US dollar is now near a major fall…in fact an unprecedented crash is a better term what will happen to the dollar.  We now know, having seen the Dow fall 50% in a year, that US institutions are not invincible from unparalleled drops.

There may be ups for the US Dollar.  For every period of a rising dollar, there will be longer periods when dollars fall.  For every upward move, there will be an ever greater fall,  Each rising will be weaker and shorter, each fall, longer and deeper.

In this knowledge lies a fortune!  Here is why this fact is so sure.

In 1964, the year Lyndon Johnson became president, the total national debt was  $316 billion. By the time, Ronald Reagan left office that debt had climbed to $2.6 trillion.  The interest cost alone was $214 billion.  By 1990 the debt had risen to $3.2 trillion and interest costs for just the one year were $242.9 billion. Interest was the largest single government cost after Social Security, even greater than defense spending.  That was when the economic problem began as US debt moved towards a precipice where recovery becomes impossible.

Flash forward 18 years and read this excerpt from a December 2008 Washington Post article.

“President Bush has nearly doubled the national debt during his eight years in the White House.  Mr. Bush is on track to add $5 trillion to the $5.73 trillion national debt he inherited when he took office. According to Treasury Department data, the number was $10.66 trillion at the end of November, and it has been rising at an astronomical rate.”

That’s bad enough…but the future gets worse as the article says that during fiscal 2008, which ended Sept. 30, 2008 the national debt increased by more than $1 trillion, breaking the previous fiscal year record of more than $600 billion.

The government’s debt situation is about to get worse as the Post outlines that
Federal debt should increase by $2 trillion in fiscal year 2009 alone!

Given an average interest rate of 4 percent, that $5 trillion of extra debt requires extra $200 billion per year from taxpayers in interest on that debt – in perpetuity.

The Post article points out,  “During October, the first month of fiscal 2009, the national debt increased by a staggering $549 billion. That was approximately three-quarters of $1 billion every hour of every day, or more than $12 million per minute and more than $200,000 per second.”

This is a lot of debt even for America’s 14 trillion a year economy.

Then the news gets worse.

Excerpts from an August 2008 US News & World report says:  “Welcome to America’s $2 Trillion Budget Deficit.  Barack Obama has already said that America’s ‘investment deficit’ will take priority over its budget deficit.

A rough estimate of the cost of this New New Deal would be close to $500 billion a year, maybe $775 billion if Uncle Sam is to completely offset the drop in consumer spending predicted by Rosenberg. Now, as it is, the government is expected to run a $500 billion deficit next year. So the S&S plan would put that budget deficit at over $1 trillion. And if you tack on a potential $500 billion to $1 trillion bailout of the banking industry, that $1 trillion deficit could conceivably double to $2 trillion.

But a $2 trillion budget deficit would be, like, 15 percent of GDP. That would be the highest level since World War II and more than twice as high as the postwar peak of 6 percent in 1983.

I can’t believe the global bond and currency market vigilantes wouldn’t completely freak, sending U.S. financial markets into chaos. Talk about a worst—though entirely possible—case scenario.

How much worse could the situation get… a one year deficit that is 15% of Americas fourteen trillion dollar a year economy?

The answer is much worse…in fact five times worse… because…
all of these government estimates are skewed.

If US debt is now 10 trillion and Obama’s administration borrows 2 billion more in 2009, that makes the debt look like 12 trillion.

Yet according to excerpts a USA Today article, “Taxpayers on the hook for $59 trillion” by Dennis Cauchon.  The federal government’s debt is five times worse if corporate-style accounting standards are used.

The article says:  “Modern accounting requires that corporations, state governments and local governments count expenses immediately when a transaction occurs, even if the payment will be made later.

“The federal government does not follow the rule, so promises for Social Security and Medicare don’t show up when the government reports its financial condition.

“Bottom line: Taxpayers are now on the hook for a record $59.1 trillion in liabilities, a 2.3% increase from 2006. That amount is equal to $516,348 for every U.S. household.”

With such fundamentals, it is hard to be anything but pessimistic about the US dollar.  This is why, with the information I am about to share, you can reap profits again and again.

Take for example the financial power that comes from understanding the value of the US dollar to the Japanese yen.

Despite the crash of 2008, long term investors in the US stock market have done well.  January  1, 1982, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 896.  January 1, 2009 it was  8,515.  That is a rise of 9.5 times in 26 years or about 36% (9% compounded) return a year…even after the 2008 crash!   $10,000 invested has grown to $95,000.

So, it seems.

Now, let’s look at the yen.  During the first half of the 1980s, the yen failed to rise in value even though current account surpluses returned and grew quickly. From ¥221 in 1981, the average value of the yen actually dropped to ¥239 in 1985.

When the Dow was 896, a US dollar bought 230 yen.

Today, 26 years later, January 1, 2009, a dollar buys about 90 yen. Imagine this. 2,300,000 yen purchased $10,000 in 1982 which grew to $95,000.   The $95,000 buys 8,550,000 yen.

The excellent Dow profit looks downright lousy, an increase of only 3.7 times in 26 years.  61% percent of all the Dow profit in the last 26 years has been lost due to US dollar erosion.  And the dollar’s fall will grow worse!

This is powerful profit knowledge…IF…you know what to.

US government debt has passed the short term point of no return.  Three bold steps were needed two decades ago, a reduction of entitlement costs (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.), reduced defense spending and a reduction of the existing debt.  The government moved in the opposite direction… in all three cases.

There are many ill omens as our new government still does not take this incredible problem seriously. The proposed new plans might cost trillions more. These are trillions that the US government does not have.  Nor are we likely to see any increases in tax revenues during the current economic downturn.

America must borrow to spend and the deeper the US debt, the greater the dollar’s fall.

The government’s refusal to create a plan to balance the budget shows no solution is in sight.  It is menacing to see how the government plans to spend more now.

The US Treasury only has 33 months left before a tsunami of expense rushes over  the government.   By the time (if ever) the government finally recognizes this problem, for most investors, it will be too late.  If it takes a terrible crash of the US dollar to finally wake the government, it could wipe out millions of families’ saving, capital and spending power in the process.

All these facts are omens of ill winds ahead.  There are already tens of millions of Americans who have been financially wiped out….but the worst has not even begun.

We will see hyper inflation, massive unemployment and a free fall of the greenback that will affect currencies and investing everywhere.  This crash will make the current downturn…even the last great 1930s depression look like a Sunday picnic.

You do not have to be alarmed because the resolution which I am about to share is so simple, anyone can act and can prepare for this disaster without inconvenience or trouble.

You do not have to participate in the great fall of the US dollar.  All you have to do is learn how to be a multi currency investor.

The time for international investing is right.  Global diversification has already created fortunes for a few sophisticated investors because this obvious problem of the US government debt actually makes it easier to make money, if you know how to invest abroad.

Let me explain why big problems can mean big profits, then let me explain why no one has been around to tell you how to invest abroad but why there is not a solution that can make multi currency investing totally easy for you.

First, let’s look at the big problem. It’s a sad reality that US government debt has actually been ruining US investments for over 40 years.  The big bankruptcy that’s coming is just the end.  The bankruptcy really started in 1971 and has been building steadily since.

Until 1971 the US dollar was the kingpin currency for the world.  Then it was “temporarily” suspended from the gold standard.  This “temporary” move, like our debt today, was ignored by the government. Since that time (the dollar was never reinstated to the gold standard), the buck has fallen and fallen. Though you may have read about a strong dollar lately, the reality of the greenback’s slide continues.

Don’t get me wrong, the dollar has not dropped every day.  It has enjoyed some short term rises over the past 37 years, but to see the real picture all you have to do is look at the dollar’s value in any major currency in 1971 and then look at its value today.

In 1972 for example the US $ was worth over 4.25 Swiss francs, 4.00 German marks and nearly 400 Japanese yen.  Today, as you can see from the yahoo.the same dollar has dropped as low as 1 dollar per Swiss franc, .65 euro (related to the German mark) and only 90 yen.  In other words, if you had $10,000 in 1971, it was worth about 4,000,000 yen.  If you invested those dollars safely clear back in the 1970s and earned a 4% compound return, by 2008 those dollars were worth over $40,000.  You might well feel the investment had gone well.

The sad truth is those $40,000 are now worth only 3,800,000 yen!  All US dollar investments have lost over 4% compounded each and every year for the past 22 years.  Your 4% return was a real loss by hard currency standards, but this loss has been hidden and the real facts about your wealth have been kept from you.

On the other hand, had you invested in Japan, Switzerland, Germany or most other major currencies, your investment would have tripled or quadrupled in dollar terms even before you started making profits!

There is another fact that is even more spectacular.  Most stock and bond markets abroad (in addition to the currency gains) have been better than in the US.

For example had you invested in the Dow in 1978, the ow was standing at 865. Today, mid December 2008 is is 8,500.  $10,000 invested in the Dow in 1978 would have grown to about $100,000…even after the global stock market crash.

Not bad?

If instead you had invested $10,000 in an investment as simple as the Templeton World Fund which started in 1978 and invests in stock markets al over the world, the $10,000…after the 2008 global crash…is still worth $352,080.

Look at the performance of bond markets as well.

Right now you receive 1.96% on the U.S. Treasury bonds that mature 2013.

Yet good quality Danish bonds of about the same term pay 4.53%  in Danish kroner.

Norwegian kroner bonds pay 3.70%
Swedish government bonds pay 2.74%
British Treasury bonds pay 3.18%
Mexican Government US dollar bonds 5.10%
Peru Government US dollar bonds 7.57%
South African bonds in euro pay 8.61%
Indonesian bonds in US dollars pay 11.57%
Hungarian Government Florin bonds 12.35%
Brazilian Government Real bonds 14.78%

Plus all of the currencies above (though depressed lately) have appreciated as much as 50% versus the dollar in recent years.

These statistics show how US government debt has invisibly, but relentlessly, destroyed the value of our investments in North America.  These statics come from my multi currency investment course, that can help you prosper even though the US dollar falls.

I’ll explain the course but first let me explain why, even though the US dollar has fallen so dramatically over the past 37 years, no one has been knocking on your door to tell you how to invest abroad.

It is the very weakness of the US dollar that has stopped North American banks, brokers and other financial institutions from telling you about the problem. These facts have been hidden from you because they have been afraid if US investors knew how bad the dollar has been that no one would deal with them.  They have, short and simple, been afraid of losing business.

Now let me tell you about this simple easy-to-use investment course called Multi Currency Investing  (MCI) and how you can have it on a no risk basis.

First, let me explain that the course is designed for anyone.  It is even for those who have never invested abroad, even if they are small investors with only a few thousand or a small amount to invest monthly.  MCI explains how investments can be made overseas for small amounts.  It even explains how to invest out of the US dollar right her in the US and never leave your home of office.

However, MCI also gives sophisticated information that you might not know even if you have been investing all over the world.  Some of my readers and course delegates are billionaires who own dozens of companies and invest all over the world!

Sleepy, Safe Portfolios Can Earn Over 100% Per Year

Multi currency investing does not require any fast trading techniques.  Multi currency portfolios are normally slow and sleepy investments…not currency contracts or futures speculations.  Most multi currency positions are aimed with a five year horizon…pretty sleepy compared to people who trade currencies (an entirely different and far riskier technique). For most of us, slow and sleepy mean SAFE!

Yet multi currency portfolios can be really profitable as well.

How sleepy and how safe?

Let’s look first at sleepy.

In 2006 we created an Asian multi currency portfolio consisting of just five award winning mutual funds.

We did not touch the entire portfolio for an entire year. Then after one year we made just five changes…dropping two mutual funds and adding three other mutual funds. Then we did not make another single change. That’s pretty sleepy, choosing a handful of mutual funds and making only five changes in two years.

Okay. Here is the big question. How profitable?

In the first year (2006) this portfolio rose 114.16%. Then we made the five changes mentioned (two funds dropped and three added). In 2007 this portfolio rose 122.62%.  2008 was a disaster year and the portfolio lost 79%. But when your portfolio is up over 236% in two years, it takes a lot of disaster to lose…so this portfolio is well ahead even after the great 2008 crash.

Year one up 114%
Year two up 122%
Year three down 79%

Total in three years…up 157% or an average of over 52% per annum for three years…even after the 2008 crash.

May I hasten to add that the portfolios published in the portfolio are not published recommendations.  These are portfolios we study to learn why they rise or fall. More on this in a moment.

First let’s examine safety.  How safe?

The portfolios were chosen with the help of one of the world’s safest banks and the mutual funds were all subsidiaries of that bank.

That safe bank is a Danish bank. That’s good because in recent years Denmark has been rated by Standard & Poor’s as one of the safest country in the world in which to bank.

The bank is Jyske Bank…well established with a history of over 100 years. Jyske is Denmark ’s second largest bank, with 450,000 clients in Denmark and over 30,000 abroad.

Jyske Bank has over 23 billion euros in assets and also happens to be one of the leading currency traders in the world. The Danes have always been big currency traders because as a small naval country surrounded by England, Sweden, Finland, Russia, Germany, Norway and other countries…they have always had to deal in many currencies.

This historically gained expertise means that unlike most banks (that trade only eight hours a day) Jyske maintains a 24 hour global currency and commodity dealer service. Many other large banks use Jyske to handle their off hour currency positions. This means that Jyske is huge when it comes to multi currency activity. In fact their turnover reaches $50 billion dollars a day.

Let’s address this issue of safety in more detail. Normally this is a pretty moot point. Right now everyone is concerned. Is a bank safe or not? I like Jyske from a bank safety point of view because there are three bank safety points, from the top down.

Bank Safety Point #1: A recent Yahoo Canada article shows a survey by the World Economic Forum listed five safest countries in which to bank.

Canada
Sweden
Luxembourg
Australia
Denmark

So Denmark is a safe place to bank. Now let’s look at Jyske Bank’s safety rating.

Bank Safety Point #2: Jyske Bank is Denmark’s second largest bank.
On October 10 2008, Moody’s affirmed Jyske Bank’s long-term Aa2 rating stable rating. This decision came despite the deteriorated economic prospects in Denmark, particularly in respect of the property market.

Bank Safety Point #3: Also on Friday 10 October 2008, the Danish Parliament passed a bill that secured all deposits and unsecured claims against losses in Danish financial institutions. The rating of the Kingdom of Denmark is Aaa/AAA with Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s respectively.

These are common sense bankers. They had minimal sub prime exposure when that scandal broke. Jyske had zero Madoff exposure.

That’s safe!

I happen to know Jyske Bank because I began using them (as my bank) over 20 years ago. They are one of the few banks that offers a special multi currency portfolio service for investors from almost anywhere in the world…including US investors through their Jyske Global Asset Management.

I was one of the first writers and publishers to begin writing about multi currency investing. Jyske bank was one of the first banks to offer a multi currency portfolio service…and they were my bank.

Not surprising we got together and have created a symbiotic relationship that can help you learn how to create multi currency portfolios that suit you.   Jyske Bank assists by providing information that only a huge global bank trading 50 billion dollars of currencies and contracts a day (as Jyske does) can afford.   My symbiotic relationship with Jyske allows me to combine my experience with this bank’s incredible knowledge, real time information capability and expertise so you learn in a most practical way from some of the greatest multi currency experts in the world.

Now let’s look at both the up and down side of these high performing portfolios and how they work?

The goal of MCI is not to recommend investments for you, but to help you learn how to be a multi currency investor so you are better at directing your broker,  banker or investment advisor.

To accomplish this goal, the course provides three levels of education.

Part one of MCI is an extensive beginner’s guide to developing multi currency portfolios.  This entire primer is sent to you when you begin the course.  This portion of the course takes nothing for granted and walks you step by step through every part of international investing.

Take, one of the primer lessons as an example. It explains theory on some of the reasons why currencies move, but taking nothing for granted it also explains what the currencies of the world are and gives their history, so before you learn why the euro doubled versus the US dollar, you get to know these currencies and the their underlying fundamentals.

Another lesson in the primer gives case studies that are real examples of how the theory has been put to use in the past.  This lesson covers theory on why currencies move and how to spot the hot currencies months ahead of time. Then it gets down to brass tacks and explains how to open bank accounts overseas to hold the hot currencies…or even how to invest abroad through US banks and brokers.

Everything about how to bank abroad and hold the currencies is covered.  How to open accounts, how to send money abroad all the laws relating to overseas accounts, taxation, etc. plus the most important part, which is how to spend the money when you need it from overseas accounts.

Then the course gives a real, live case study that show how the theory works in reality. It tells about an investor who opened an account, got a  checkbook and credit card and how he used them both and held several currencies for higher returns that he gained with US dollars.

Finally you also get valuable contacts in the course.  These are vitally important. There are names and addresses of institutions and source of information you can use to turn your knowledge into action!

Here is the syllabus of the primer you will receive in MCI.

* Why Currencies Move.

* How to Bank Abroad.

* How to Buy Stocks and Bonds Overseas.

* How to Choose Currencies.

* Why Currencies Rise and Fall.

* How to Borrow Low and Deposit High.

* How to Buy Mutual Funds That Invest Abroad.

* ETFS. Why They are Often Better Than Managed Funds.

* How to Find Bonds that are Like and Often Better than Shares

* How and When to Capture Recoveries.

* Global Portfolio Diversification Theory.

* When Leveraged Low Risk Portfolios Are Safer and Perform Better Than High Risk Portfolios.

The primer deals with the past…but as we so vividly saw in 2008…markets are always in a state of change so…

Part two studies global markets in real time.  Your MCI course comes in regular emailed lessons usually emailed every two or three days.  Though at times you’ll get a lesson every day for many days in a row. Other times nothing will come for a week because these lessons are based on real time market activity.  MCI studies currencies and global investment markets and reports to you on their value and why that value occurs.

This portion of the course studies the current performance of portfolios that Jyske bank creates…plus examines the portfolios of several globally diversified mutual funds….for both small and large investors.   This portion of your course gives you an overall, up-to-date understanding of market and currency moves.

Part three of MCI shares my portfolio and where I invest.  This is an unusual feature…so let me explain why MCI regularly reviews my personal investment portfolio and how this can be of value to your investing.

First this is honest.nd we have fund that for us…honesty pays.

As we recently learned from the Madoff scam…investors must always be on guard.  This is our 41st year of educating about international investing.  This is all we do and our great long term success has been based on placing our readers ahead of all other considerations.   We do not sell investments. We do not give individual advice.  We have no hidden agendas that could lead investments astray.

We want you to see and know what we are doing based on our own advice so you can trust the data we share.  Otherwise the lessons do little good.  You the reader are the only way we earn.  We do not receive commissions…or any form of remuneration for selling shares or accounts etc.   We hope to work with you for life…rather than make some type of quick killing by advising you to invest in something we d not really believe in.

We feel that by letting you know how we actually invest helps accomplish this long term bond.

This is vital because we often invest exactly the opposite of the market.

Take for example the five 2007 portfolios we studied in MCI:

Portfolios             12 Month Rise
Swiss Samba           53.32%
Emerging Mkt        122.62%
Dollar Short             48.19%
Dollar Neutral          38.67%
Green                    266.30%

This is performance you will rarely see duplicated…anywhere…at any time.

Yet these were model portfolios…not meant to be yours….not meant to be mine.  I do not invest in these portfolios because…they do not suit my lifestyle and my unique personal financial needs.  One of the key lessons that MCI focuses on…again and again is “there is no perfect portfolio for you”… except one designed uniquely for you.

My portfolio is not perfect for you either…yet seeing “how” I adapt my portfolio to our virtual real time portfolio reviews can help you learn how to adapt your personal portfolio  as well.

So even though our study portfolios were enjoying world class performance, exploding upwards like rockets,  I was reducing leverage and getting out of markets.  On August 17, 2007…well before the 2008 collapse began I posted the note in an MCI lesson on why I was getting out of leverage and equities.

“Such historical measures are so inexact that we cannot predict just from them what will happen in the short term. The numbers are close enough that we could be entering the fourth sub cycle down (similar to 1976 to 1978). If so expect a sustained drop in markets for two to three years.”

Even though the portfolios MCI studied continued to rise, I sent another danger lesson to the course on September 21, 2007. “Equity markets dropped again violently last month. Now these markets have recovered again. Yet this may be a last gasp party.”

I began increasingly concerned for myself and on October 14 sent this lesson  “Periods of high performance are followed by times of low returns. We never know for sure when an upwards cycle will stall. Fundamentals look good for a bright 2008 in emerging and equity markets, but this can change quickly so to give our readers a better perspective, this year we are reducing leverage and adding a sixth portfolio with no leverage to study”.

The Oct. 15, 2007 lesson said: “Okay it’s time to turn the burner down and offered a “leverage dwindling” warning.  On Oct. 26 I explained to readers that I had eliminated even my modest leverage and wrote: “There is a final reason I liquidated my leverage now…to lead by example. Too many readers are thinking that the dollar short or dollar neutral Portfolios are only up 38% or 48% for the year. When one thinks that way they could be headed for trouble, so I hope investors will follow my lead and take greater care with their leverage.”

I did not stop. The November 8, 2007 was a Black Friday interim message that warned again about all the points above and more.

This created one plain and simple fact.   The 2008 stock market crash drop did not surprise those enrolled in MCI.

Right now at the end of 2008, I am adding leveraged bonds to my portfolio. Here is an excerpt from the December 28, 2008 MCI lesson:

There are many similarities between the US economy and the US government’s response to the downturn with Japan’s slowdown in the early 1990s and the Japanese  government’s response then.   Readers made fortunes borrowing yen as they may make fortunes borrowing dollars now.

Watch especially now for ways to borrow dollars at low rates for investing in high yield, short term dollar bonds like:

Currency                      Bond                               Yield

USD    9.125   19/05/2009    SOUTH AFRICA     6.04%

USD    10.25   17/06/2013     BRAZIL REP OF     6.24%

USD     8.25     31/03/2010     RUSSIA                   5.93%

This type of bond has no currecny risk if leveraged in US dollars.  Your only major risk is default.

Bonds denominated in euro are even more to my liking because they pay higher interest and have a potential forex gain if the dollar drops again verus the euro.

Yet our lessons are objective and provide warnings of risk as well.  This type of leveraged investment also has a chance of loss if the dollar rises verus the euro. Do not borrow more than you can afford to lose!

There is even more yield potential in bonds denominated in euro.

EUR      5.75   02/07/2010     ROMANIA             10.81%

EUR    8.5     24/09/2012     BRAZIL REP OF      7.49%

EUR    5.25     16/05/2013     SOUTH AFRICA     8.61%

These three bonds yield an average 8.97%. They represent a diversification into Europe, Latin America and Africa.   If you invest $100,000 and also invest another borrowed $100,000 at 4%, your total annual return is 13.94%  before  any forex gains or loss.

MCI provides you with bank contacts who  lend in many currencies often at very low rates, to leverage investments.

Multi Currency Investing helps you enjoy the ultimate form of financial security.

From the very first lesson, you expand your knowledge about investing abroad.  You gain contacts that can bring you solid profits and safety when most investors are being silently robbed blind by the steady deterioration of the US economy and the US dollar.

I want to give my readers an answer to relieve the anxiety they faced from this awesome dollar problem that I don’t think is going to get solved.

I originally started this course just for my readers.  Tens of thousands enrolled and we have shared how to invest globally for deades.

Now due to the 2008 global economic crash, I am rewriting the entire course.  This
crash has changed everything and I would like to share how to profit in 2009 with you.

Everyone needs to know how to have multi currency diversification. But in case this course does not help you, we provide a 30 day “completely satisfied or your money back” guarantee that we have offered our hundreds of thousands of readers for more than 20 years.

Our Multi Currency Educational Service is normally a mere $249 for a very long and educational year!

Won’t you share this exciting world of wealth accumulation with us and our readers around the world?

Subscribe here or see below how to join us in Ecuador or North Carolina and receive this course FREE.

Gary Scott

P.S.   As previously mentioned, the portfolios we tracked in 2007 had the following results:

Portfolios             12 Month Rise
Swiss Samba           53.32%
Emerging Mkt        122.62%
Dollar Short             48.19%
Dollar Neutral          38.67%
Green                    266.30%

You can imagine performance like this attracted quite a bit of attention…and it did.

However these high returns were not the important benefit our readers gained.

MCI does not recommend nor manage portfolios.  We did not suggest that readers invest in these portfolios. We created and tracked them because they were educational.

The courses is designed so you can work with your own investment manager to create your own multi currency portfolio that suits your own special, individual needs.  The multi currency investment course is designed to help you learn how to manage your manager… nothing more.  Yet this is a lot because Jyske Bank can provide a stable and safe institution for those who wish to employ a multi currency strategy.

The course will help you guide  any investment adviser or investment manager who understands how to invest in more than one currency.

The course also helps you manage risk. The incredible portfolio performance above was achieved because the portfolios were leveraged using a tactic we call a multi currency sandwich. Investors borrow low and invest in yielding or growth portfolios. The portfolios used loans in Japanese yen and Swiss francs to magnify profits in good times.

Plus we learned how leverage pushes losses faster in bad times and that leverage can help recovery at the end of bad times as well.

Here is an interesting multi currency fact that provides us with a valuable investing idea.   In 2009 we are tracking three Jyske portfolios.

Low Risk Multi Currency Portfolio invests in:  Fixed Income 70%,  Equities 20%,  Alternatives 5%,  Cash 5%.

Medium Risk Multi Currency Portfolio invests in: Fixed Income, 40%,  Equities 50%,  Alternatives 5%, Cash 5%.

High Risk Multi Currency Portfolio invests in:  Fixed Income  10%, Equities 80%,  Alternatives 5%,  Cash 5%.

Our studies to date have shown that the low risk portfolio, with some leverage, can be safer and perform better than a non leveraged high risk portfolio.

MCI continually reviews these portfolios so we can earn real time from their performance.

Subscribe here or see below how to join us in Ecuador or North Carolina and receive this course FREE.

Here is what a few others from around the world have said about our services and reports on international investing.

“ Gary , I am a long time subscriber in various media, and while cleaning out my files today I found some old ‘Gary A. Scotts World Reports’. In particular, the April 1988 issue provided the info that made me over a million dollars. Just wanted to say a belated ‘thank you’ and please continue the excellent work. Warm regards,”
From an Unknown Reader

“Dear Gary, I would like to give thanks to you for introducing me to Jyske Bank two years ago.

“I have been a long-time client of Merrill Lynch, but am in the process of re-evaluating my relationship with the largest brokerage company in the world. My problem is that when I compare Merrill to Jyske, Jyske outshines Merrill (or other major U.S. brokerage firms) in most categories as follows:

“1) Even though Jyske is much smaller, it has a much more global perspective which is critical in an evermore global investment environment.

“2) In order to maximize their own individual revenue, the brokers at Merrill prefer to outsource the day-to-day management of their accounts to various fund managers and hence, ‘manage the managers’. In contrast, I can call my Account Manager at Jyske and he can discuss every aspect of my account in detail with me.

“3) I attribute this difference in #2 to the fact that Jyske’s employees are not compensation driven, but instead are focused on satisfying their customers. That is why Jyske’s clients stay with the Bank on average for 12 years, which is phenomenal by Wall Street standards.

“4) Jyske’s security is far more stringent than that of Merrill’s. In addition to the standard account code and password, to pass through Jyske’s security one has to enter a Key Card number and also a randomly-generated 4-digit number from said Key Card.

“5) Having an account offshore allows me to sleep better given the anxious times we live in. Since I report the existence of the account and pay all taxes due, I am fully compliant with the law. However, such an account gives me and my family a ‘financial life boat’ should events in our own country ever get out of hand.

“As Dorothy Parker once said, ‘You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them THINK’. Jyske is a thinking person’s bank. My only complaint is the time zone difference since I live in California . However, since I am an early riser and my Account Manager is very responsive to my emails, this problem is very small relative to the HUGE benefits.

“Again, many thanks for introducing me to Jyske Bank. Given the ‘dumbing down’ that occurs in the popular media today, your ezine and its recommendations are ever more important. Please continue your good work to enlighten your readership.  Warm regards,”
C.M. CALIFORNIA Businessman

“I was so overwhelmed with information I received I had to spend several days reading, sorting and filing it! I have decided to move my modest investment capital overseas.”
B.W. MONTREAL CANADA Professor

“Send me your report on safe banks lending at 7% for redeposit at 13% or more.” B.V. ADDIS ABADA ETHIOPIA Economic Commission United Nations

“A number of new and significant contacts were made. It would be extremely helpful if you could supply us with WORLD REPORTS.” I.M. TORONTO , CANADA Banker

“You are as good as your word which is rare these days. I look forward to attending one of your seminars.” C.K. GENEVA , SWITZERLAND Banker

“In spite of my marketing experience, your information really got me going!” M. C. LONDON, ENGLAND Marketing Consultant

“Thanks for the three reports. They are very interesting and should find many readers here in Japan .” M.A. Tokyo , JAPAN Computer Programmer

“I would like to say how much I enjoyed the information I received.” A.B. Providenciales TURKS & CAICOS Accountant

“First let me say how much we enjoyed the investment seminar.” W.J. SAUDI ARABIA Oil Engineer

“Once again thanks for all the great information.” G.K. PERTH , AUSTRALIA Insurance Executive

“Your letter of November 8th warned me to beware of the market just a week before the 120 point crash on November 15th!” T.G. N. CAROLINA Pilot”

Yet global economics 2008 have changed everything.   So I am now offering this course to a wider audience who have indicated their concern with the state of the US economy.

Before I make this offer to a wider audience however, I want to make a special December offer to you.

This course has been and is normally offered for $249.

To begin, I am reducing that price to $175…a savings of $74…yet there is much more because you can enjoy this course FREE.

You can enroll here…now and save $74

Here is how to receive this course FREE.

In 2009 I will work with Jyske Bank to conduct four  courses  about how to be a multi currency investor.

Two of these courses will be conducted in Ecuador

February 13 -15 and Nov. 6 to 8, 2009

The other two courses will  be conducted in North Carolina.

July 24-26 and  Oct. 9-11, 2009

Simply sign up for any of the four courses above and you receive the Multi Currency Course in 2009 FREE.

Multi Currency Inflation


Multi currency inflation will have a profound  impact on  your investments and savings.

The key to understanding multi currency investing and inflation is to understand that a shrinkage of the global economy  creates deflation.

See how to determine which scenario will unfold at inflation or deflation

Here is an excerpt from that multi currency lesson.

Watch for the figures…global government debt and global economic growth or contraction.

Historically during inflation the best multi currency investments are commodities, equities and real estate.  During deflation, the best are bonds, cash (T-Bills) and real estate.

During inflation leverage works best.   During deflation it is nice to sit in a no debt multi currency situation.

Review each possible scenario with your financial adviser.  If they assure you that they know…beware.  NO one knows for sure…so adjust your portfolo to your personal circumstances and the scenario that you and your adviser agree is most likely to unfold.

Remember… statistics  are sometimes obscured for political reasons at best.   Even when they are transparant… they are often incorrect.

The best we can do is make a reasonable guess,  keep watch  and be willing to adapt.

Always look for value in distortions and trends.

There is a huge distortion growing in the trend of the US government  borrowing to fix everyone’s woes.   If  this borrowing offsets deflation but does not create runaway inflation, the dollar is likely to drop versus currencies with higher interest rates or where the government is not so deeply in debt.

This borrowing and the US economic slow down have created the perfect storm for a currency distortion…an over strong currency…that is likely to fall….and can be borrowed at a very low interest rate

There are many similarities between the US economy and the US government’s response to the downturn with Japan’s slowdown in the early 1990s and the Japanese  government’s response then.   Readers made fortunes borrowing yen as they may make fortunes borrowing dollars now.

Watch especially now for ways to borrow dollars at low rates for investing in high yield, short term dollar bonds like:

Currency                      Bond                     Yield

USD    9.125   19/05/2009    SOUTH AFRICA     6.04%

USD    10.25   17/06/2013     BRAZIL REP OF     6.24%

USD     8.25     31/03/2010     RUSSIA          5.93%

This type of bond has no currency risk if leveraged in US dollars.  Your only major risk is default.

Bonds denominated in euro are even more to my liking because they pay higher interest and have a potential forex gain if the dollar drops again verus the euro.

Yet this type of leveraged investment also has a chance of loss if the dollar rises verus the euro. Do not borrow more than you can afford to lose!

There is even more yield potential in bonds denominated in euro.

EUR      5.75   02/07/2010     ROMANIA             10.81%

EUR    8.5     24/09/2012     BRAZIL REP OF      7.49%

EUR    5.25     16/05/2013     SOUTH AFRICA     8.61%

These three bonds yield an average 8.97%. They represent a diversification into Europe, Latin America and Africa.   If you invest $100,000 and also invest another borrowed $100,000 at 4%, your total annual return is 13.94%  before  any forex gains or loss.

Until next message may all your scenarios be clear.

Gary

The bonds mentioned above are from Jyske Bank’s bond list. These are indicative rates not recommendations.

To learn more about bonds like those above diversification  and to check on current Jyske risk profiles, US investors should contact JGAM Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors contact Jyske Bank Rene Mathys at  mathys@jbpb.dk

Until next message good global investing.

Gary

Join Merri, me and Peter Laub of Jyske Global Asset Management at OUR INTERNATIONAL INVESTING & BUSINESS COURSE IN ECUADOR. We review economic conditions, Ecuador real estate, my entire portfolio plus investing and business ideas for the months ahead.

Feb. 9-11 Beyond Logic.

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ
Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our entire schedule of 27 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009 and learn how to attend them FREE.

Ecuador Bond Default


Today, December 15, 2009, we’ll know for sure if Ecuador has defaulted on some of its bonds. Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa threatened to do this once before…and did not.

This time I believe he will.

This will be good…for many…because despite the default, Ecuador’s sun will not go away.

Ecuador-bond-default

Nor will the beauty of Ecuador’s mountains like this one we climbed.

Ecuador-bond-default

Nor will it stop the smiles of Ecuador’s happy people like these potato farmers we met on the hike.

Ecuador-bond-default

Nor will the hard working energy of the crafts people in town like Otavalo (shown here) cease.

Ecuador-bond-default

Nor the richness of the land like this Intag forest go away.

Ecuador-bond-default

Nor will the wonder of the longevity valleys like this Intag plain end.Ecuador-bond-default

Ecuador’s bond default may create profits in two ways….one in the global bond market. The other gain will be in Ecuador.

Many readers have sent me a link to last week’s Bloomberg December 12, 2009 article by Stephan Kueffner which says:

Correa Defaults on Ecuador Bonds, Seeks Restructuring.  Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa halted payment on foreign bonds he calls “illegal” and “illegitimate,” putting the South American country in default for a second time in a decade.

The government won’t make a $30.6 million interest payment by Dec. 15, when a month long grace period expires, Correa told reporters in his office in Guayaquil. The $510 million bonds due in 2012 plunged to 23 cents on the dollar from 31 yesterday and 97.5 cents three months ago.

“I have given the order that interest payments not be made,” Correa said. “The country is in default.”

Though Ecuador is a small country, the size of France, with about 11 million people, its bond default may slow the recovery of the bond market during this global economic downturn.

Latin Bonds already have strong yields.  Look at the high yields on medium term denominated in US euro and US dollars!

Currency   Bond                Country             Yield

EUR     8.5  24/09/2012     BRAZIL             7.49%

EUR     7.375 03/02/2015   BRAZIL            8.38%

EUR     11.5   31/05/2011   COLOMBIA      8.17%

EUR     5.375 10/06/2013   MEXICO           7.28%

EUR         7.5  14/10/2014  PERU               9.02%

USD        10.25 17/06/2013 BRAZIL           6.24%

USD     8.25 22/12/2014      COLOMBIA     7.42%

USD     9.875  06/02/2015    PERU             7.57%

Ecuador owes about $10 billion to bondholders, multilateral lenders and other countries…not a lot by global standards…but  Ecuador’s bond default could cause a ripple down in Latin bonds and create even higher yields.  If so, I’ll buy some today.

The bonds and yields above are from Jyske Bank’s bond list of last Friday. These are indications not recommendations.    You can get up-to-date bond information from:

US investors at Jyske Global Asset Management.  Contact Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Non US Investors at Jyske Bank. Contact  Rene Mathys at mathys@jbpb.dk

The next opportunity is in Ecuador. Many readers have asked questions like:

Ecuador is defaulting on its bonds. Any problems because of this? Is this good or bad?

This is a question much like, “Is the US federal $800 billion bail out, good or bad?”

The answer is yes and no.

First, remember that Ecuador defaulted on bonds once before in 1999.   Everything fell apart. Bank’s shut down. The country ran out of gas.  Times were terrible.

The country remained a great place to live. The cost of living collapsed. Help was easy to get. You could buy real estate for a song. So the answer to “Is this good or bad?” depends on who you are, how much money you have and where it is invested.

The Bloomberg article points out that Correa says of the default:

“I couldn’t allow the continued payment of a debt that by all measures is immoral and illegitimate,” Correa said. “It is now time to bring in justice and dignity.”

A debt commission Correa formed last year said in a 172 page report in November that the global bonds due in 2012 and 2030 “show serious signs of illegality,” including issuance without proper government authorization. Correa invoked the 30- day grace period on the interest payment last month, saying he wanted to analyze the commission’s findings.

Correa, 45, said the government will present a restructuring proposal in coming days. “We want creditors to recoup part of their money,” he said.

Personally I think this is true, but is the wrong approach.  I have long been a defender of Correa.  He is much like Barrack Obama, young, smart, energetic, from a poor background, who worked his way to the top with a mandate made possible by minorities….based on promises that probably cannot be kept.

He is trying to make improvements..but can he?

Obama cannot change the previous American debt and some of that US debt, in my opinion, is as immoral and illegitimate as can be.  If previous Ecuadorian politicians broke the law and created incorrect loans…Correa and the people of Ecuador should punish them.  They should recoup what they can from those people…but to punish lenders will simply stop lenders from lending to Ecuador.   This will hurt the nation, long term, as a whole.

The Bloomberg article goes on to say:

“Ecuador is moving further into isolation,” said Vicente Albornoz, head of the Cordes research institute in Quito. “The hardliners in the government won.”

“Ecuador is a serial defaulter,” said Arturo Porzecanski, an international finance professor at American University in Washington. “They defaulted in the 1980s, 1990s and this decade. A lot of other countries have had one or two defaults, but Ecuador tops them all.”

Correa, who holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, has said he will not sacrifice spending on health and education to pay the debt. Ecuador’s foreign obligations are equal to 21 percent of its $44 billion gross domestic product. Argentina’s debt, by comparison, was equivalent to 150 percent of its GDP when it defaulted in 2001, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Oil, which has plunged 67 percent since July amid the global financial crisis, accounts for about 60 percent of Ecuador’s exports. Finance Minister, Maria Elsa Viteri, said on Nov. 18 the country’s fiscal accounts remain “strong and healthy.” Ecuador had $5.65 billion in cash reserves as of Dec. 5, according to the Central Bank.

The default was triggered by the combination of the decline in oil with “a ridiculous ideology,” said Claudio Loser, the former director of the International Monetary fund’s Western Hemisphere department, who now is a scholar at the Inter- American Dialogue. “The financial need wasn’t so great that it was forced to declare a default,” Loser said.

The South American country has defaulted six times since it separated from Gran Colombia in 1830, according to “Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises,” a book published in 2007 by Federico Sturzenegger and Jeromin Zettelmeyer.

“It’s a final blow to external investors, and particularly any energy investors that may have retained interest or had future plans to attempt an investment in Ecuador,” said Enrique Alvarez, head of Latin America fixed-income research at IDEAglobal Inc. in New York.

I believe this default will hurt Ecuador’s overall economy…and help expats who live and invest there in small ways. When economic conditions drop, prices become lower. Labor is easier to find. Everyone is more willing to serve and work hard…if you have money.

Merri and I were living in Ecuador when the sucre collapsed falling from 3,000 sucres per dollar to 24,000 sucres per dollar. This roller coaster reduced the cost of food, clothing, shelter, staff, everything local. Wages were down. Bargains were everywhere!

Merri and I were loved because we stayed. We spent. We provided jobs.

Life can actually be better in hard times…especially if you have your income and investments OUT of the depressed country.

There is a caveat. If conditions deteriorate too far, law and order can break down.  Short term this will make Ecuador’s life better. They won’t have the loan to repay…but long term, as they become more isolated from the global economy, this will hurt.

Ecuadorians are basically friendly, non violent people so I do not have any great concern about this. This is based on experience. I have lived in places where people were not quite as easy going, like Hong Kong in the 1960s when there were riots and bombing in the streets.

My belief if that Ecuador will remain a great place to be…especially for now.

Gary

Join us at a course in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Here is our latest group inspecting the hotel,which is one block from the Ecuador’s Pacific.

ecuador-real-estate-risk

We’ll view this hotel if it has not sold. It has a huge front porch.

ecuador-real-estate-risk

Large second floor veranda with ocean views.

ecuador-real-estate-risk

Beautiful flowered front yard.

ecuador-real-estate-risk

The building is really rough and needs work…but over 8,000 square feet of building. The asking price is $60,000.

We have sent our Ecuador Living paid subscribers more details on this building on this Ecuador hotel for sale. If you subscribe, you can have this report. See how to subscribe to Ecuador Living here.

Join us for our next Spanish course ad real estate tours.

Join us at a course in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Jan. 16-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Jan. 22-23 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Jan. 24-27 Coastal Real Estate Tour

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ
Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
March 10-15 Ecuador Export Expedition
March 16-19 Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one$1,349 for two

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one$1,799 for two

Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our entire schedule of 27 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009 and how to attend as many of them as you like FREE.

The course fee includes meeting at Quito airport (day before the
course)…transportation (by group bus) to Cotacachi and back to Quito.
Course fee does not include air are. accommodations, food or individual
transportation.

Cotacachi & Bonds


Recent messages looked at the potential profit that Cotacachi fixer uppers can bring. We are converting an office building into condos.

Before.

Cotacachi condos

Now…but not done.

Cotacachi-condos

One great thing about fixing up Ecuador real estate are the low prices. Yesterday for example the doors began to arrive. Great… attractive hardwood…less than $100.

Cotacachi condos

Recent messages also looked at the potential profit that is building in bonds. I have received a number of messages asking for my recommendations.

First let me repeat that now is probably not yet the time to buy the bonds.
As mentioned in a recent email the spreads are so high at this time that you receive a large loss immediately. This is a sign that dealers are very nervous and do not know what to do. For example a bond might be sold for 90 and bought for 80. You immediately lose the spread if you sell.

However on short term bonds that you do not plan to sell this may not matter much.

I have been getting questions from readers asking me to recommend…which bonds.

I cannot make a recommendation for any individual because there are many factors…such as…

How much risk can you tolerate and afford?

When would you need the funds?

Do you want income or capital gains?

We are in uncharted bond territory…hardly ever seen before and you need to look closely at each bond… with your bank or financial adviser to see how how any specific bond may rise or fall.

For example there are numerous DaimerChrysler bonds that have different yields.

Curr Bond Yield
EUR 4.25% 23/01/2009 DAIMLERCHRYS NA 2.82%
EUR 4.25 % 04/10/2011 DAIMLERCHRYS NA 5.88%

USD 6.50% 15/11/2013 DAIMLER FINANCE 12.23%
USD 8.00% 15/06/2010 DAIMLERCHRYS NA 10.82%

Questions to decide are which… why..based on rating and maturity…and do you want to be in the auto industry at all or not. Obama just asked Bush to help the US auto industry.

If so are other auto firms better?

There are many options such as:

EUR 6.25% 24/02/2010 FIAT FIN & TRADE 5.83%
EUR 6.75% 25/05/2011 FIAT FIN & TRADE 6.75%
EUR 5.625% 15/11/2011 FIAT FIN & TRADE 14.22%
EUR 6.625% 15/02/2013 FIAT FIN & TRADE 14.09%
EUR 5.75% 12/01/2009 FORD MOTOR CRED 53.63%
EUR 7.25% 03/07/2013 GENERAL MOTORS 33.66%
EUR 5.75% 27/09/2010 GMAC 39.38%
EUR 5.375% 06/06/2011 GMAC 36.27%
USD 5.8% 12/01/2009 FORD MOTOR CRED 36.93%
USD 7.375% 01/02/2011 FORD MOTOR CRED 35.56%

Finally if you are a US investor, the list is shorter. Some bonds can be owned by US investors…others not. The bonds that are available for US investors are available on a state by state basis. and are only available to residents of some states.

The bonds above come from Jyske Bank’s bond list which is their list of bonds available, not recommendations.

If these bonds are of interest to you, you should contact your account manager. If you do not have an account at Jyske, contact your banker or broker or contact Jyske for more information on how to open an account to buy these bonds…when the time is ready.

A correction in the bond market could create enormous profits and properly chosen have a high risk premium in relation to the risk taken. However there is risk…in everything at this time.

Unless you are a professional bond trader do not try this on your own. Get a professional who has bond experience to help you study the risk reward and timing.

Conditions have created the potential for a really high yield…with reduced risk…when the market turns. You need to study this carefully to be sure that the turning point and specific bonds you choose suits your risk timing parameters.

US investors can get more information from Thomas Fischer of Jyske Global Asset Management at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors can get details from Rene Mathys of Jyske Bank at mathys@jbpb.dk

Until next message good investing.

Gary

Join us at a course in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Jan. 16-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Jan. 22-23 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Jan. 24-27 Coastal Real Estate Tour

We’ll visit the Otavalo markets.

Ecuador-Project

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ
Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Cotacachi-meeting

Courses are centered around this open air courtyard in our colonial inn El Meson de las Flores.

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
March 10-15 Ecuador Export Expedition
March 16-19 Coastal Real Estate Tour

You are also invited to tag along to the beach where we visit all types of Ecuador beach property for sale. Here is one f our previous tours enjoying a visit to Vistazul condos.

Ecuador-Project

Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our entire schedule of 26 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009.

Cotacachi Morning


Our Cotacachi Ecuador economic tour continues this morning.

We start the day walking instead of talking…enjoying a hike in the fresh morning air. This is the wet season which means perfect, cool, sunny mornings with afternoon clouds and perhaps later rain.

This confuses many readers. If one looks at the Ecuador weather reports for Quito, Cotacachi and surrounds it seems to rain almost every day. This is true, it rains a bit many days. Thank goodness. Most days it is so sunny and clear and the sun so intense that without those clouds one would really burn. Learn more about this at Ecuador Weather.

I rise about 4:30, try to answer my email etc. before dawn,. Then Merri and I hit the street around 6am. This morning we were in a perfect position to watch the sun rise behind Mt. imbabrura.

ecuador-tours

This seemed appropriate because the course we are conducting is looking at how many opportunities are rising now.

On our way back we passed the local Cotacachi food store, a two story affair with a great mural from the Guayasamín school. This morning it was perfectly framed by Mt. Cotacachi in the background.

ecuador-tour

The 50+ delegates enjoyed breakfast in the hotel.

cotacachi-tours

Cotacachi loves art and there are murals everywhere in village, including in our dining room. Our mural depicts all the famous buildings in the village.

At 9 am we began speaking again. Delegates are getting seated and ready to go.

ecuador-tour

Here is Peter Laub from Jyske Global Asset Management talking about the current economic downturn.

ecuador-tour

One current condition that Peter and I reviewed was the current downturn in bonds around the world.

Some time back we reviewed at this site bonds issued by Bank TuranAlem (BTAS) the second-largest bank in Kazakhstan bank, formed in 1997 as a merger between two government-owned banks. This is a full-service bank with representative offices in Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, China, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Tajikistan and Armenia. The bank’s bonds are rated by Moody’s Ba1 and S&P: BB and it has government backing.

This bank has been offering many bonds in dollars and euro. Now while the bond market is in panic mode the yields are phenomenal.

Their 6.25% 27/09/2011 bond denominated in euro is being sold at 74.22 which creates a yield of 18.14%…in euro.

The bank has bonds in pounds yielding 36.46% and US dollars at 45.25%

You can see some of the bonds and their yields below.

GBP 7.125 21/12/2009 TURANALEM FIN BV 75.00 36.46%

USD 5.434 22/01/2009 TURANALEM FIN BV 92.75 45.25%

USD 7.875 02/06/2010 TURANALEM FIN BV 71.00 33.19%

USD 8.000 24/03/2014 TURANALEM FIN BV 50.49 25.37%

USD 8.5 10/02/2015 TURANALEM FIN BV 52.00 23.52%

Yields like this create an argumet for speculating in such bonds now.

See more about Bank TuranAlem at Multi Currency Investment Secrets.

There are plenty of other dollar, euro and pound bonds with exceptional yields now.
EUR 5.75 12/01/2009 FORD MOTOR CRED 92.52 53.63%

EUR 5.875 08/07/2013 HUTCH WHAM FIN 89.96 8.53%

EUR 8.465 15/05/2013 EUROPCAR GROUPE 43.00 34.10%

EUR 8.25 01/05/2016 NORDIC TEL CO HL 74.00 13.96%

We gave an in depth review of these bonds at the course.

Tomorrow learn about our coffee breaks and quinoa jello!

Until then may your Sunday be as bright as ours.

Gary

Join us at a course in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Jan. 16-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Jan. 22-23 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Jan. 24-27 Coastal Real Estate Tour

We’ll visit the Otavalo markets.

Ecuador-Project

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ
Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Cotacachi-meeting

Courses are centered around this open air courtyard in our colonial inn El Meson de las Flores.

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
March 10-15 Ecuador Export Expedition
March 16-19 Coastal Real Estate Tour

You are also invited to tag along to the beach where we visit all types of Ecuador beach property for sale. Here is one f our previous tours enjoying a visit to Vistazul condos.

Ecuador-Project

Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our entire schedule of 26 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009.

Multi Currency Breakdown


See the multi currency breakdown of my portfolio below.

Yesterday’s message on multi currency bank safety mentioned that multi currency safety is as important as bank safety. Investors who do not have multi currency diversification can end up holding assets in a safe bank but with a worthless currency.

This is one reason why I have such a large percentage of my portfolio in real estate…carried at cost.  All of our real estate has been purchased at prices well below even the current market. We spend a lot of time researching and searching and fixing because I love working with buildings and land. This is the most important investing lesson of all…do what you love…with those you like.

Really…I would much rather play at making land like this worth more than fiddling with stock charts.

Multi-currency-love

I receive many emails like this:

In this current and, I believe, temporary ‘strengthening’ of the US dollar, I am looking for ways to preserve my assets. I have a lot of faith in the Australian $. The 2 obvious benefits in my mind are, no capital gains if/when the US$ weakens, plus I earn interest on the Australian dollar account. I am also looking to buy silver and I am looking at coins and bullion, any suggestions in this arena would also be appreciated. Thank you,

To invest in just one currency is speculation. Nothing wrong with that, if you know and accept the consequences of speculating incorrectly.

To me, real estate is so much more interesting…a puzzle to be worked filled with mystery that beckons like our hidden horse barn tucked away in the woods…just waiting for value to be added.

multi-currency-barn

Gold is nice also…in the leaves here during the leaf change or the yellow metal…a bit for insurance …but more is speculation as well. Property however almost always has utility…like our home.

Holding several currencies for multi currency diversification is better for most.

As it happens I have not felt good about Australia’s currency as you will see in my multi currency breakdown below.  In my opinion, too many investors are betting too much on t based as a commodity currency.

Here are three trends I have been aiming my multi currency diversification towards.

#1: A return to value. Value investing has long been our philosophy. No reason to change now but other investors have been chasing the easy, fast bucks in rapid appreciation. Look for a shift towards owning high yielding, solid boring shares and bonds.

#2: Real estate. The real problem investors face is not an economic meltdown. Inflation is the genuine risk because governments have proven that they will flood markets with liquidity to avoid the meltdown. Inflation means that cement will cost more. So too will steel and labor. This means a rise in labor. I salivate when this fundamental meets a global real estate correction and am buying so much real estate I scare myself.

#3: A shift to underlying currency value. Where does an investor go when the euro is no longer trusted and the dollar is fundamentally weak but suddenly flexing muscles it should not have? My guess (and here I am overweighted ) is investors will lean towards currencies of small, economically sane, solid, established, politically sound countries…such as Norway, Sweden and Denmark. If so, these currencies will rise versus the euro and dollar. If I am wrong, they are least likely to fall.

All of this brings us to the point of this lesson. If you travel and visit currency and forex trading rooms of large established, successful trading operations, you’ll note that there are very few, old traders. Young men and young women do this job because experienced investors know that currency trading, rather than diversification requires immense capital, continual diligence, almost unlimited discipline and the ability to absorb many small losses before making a big hit. Plus traders must have the emotional stability to not let the big lead them astray! This is an error that has allowed one trader to break many a bank and major firms’ backs…..Coutts…AIG are two examples.

Here is my currency breakdown:

US & Ecuador Real Estate 50.12%

Europe EUR 16.05%

Denmark DKK 9.03%

United States US$ 8.46%

Britain GBP 4.01%

Sweden SEK 3.16%

Hungary HUF 2.37%

Turkey TRY 2.1%

Brazil BRL 1.28%

Canada CAD 1.18%

Norway NOK 1.15%

New Zealand NZD 1.09%

Australia AUD 0%

I am now readjusting this breakdown and will review why in my Multi Currency Course.

Learn how to subscribe here.

Gary

Join Merri, me and Jyske Global Asset Management at one of our courses. We review economic conditions, Ecuador real estate, my entire portfolio and our multi currency breakdown plus investing and business ideas for the months ahead.

International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/international-business-made-ez-ecuador

Stay on for the real estate tour Cotacachi and surrounding areas. We’ll see real estate for sale on this lake.

Ecuador-lake-sites

Plus we’ll see homes at San Miguel and Prima Vera II.

cotacachi-ecuador-san-miguel

Primavera II $46,000 condos.

multi-currency-Ecuador-condos

Nov 10-11 Cotacachi-Imbabura Real Estate tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-real-estate

Then travel to the coast and enjoy this Pacific surf that in November is warm!

Ecuador real estate for sale .

Salt or fresh water

Ecuador real estate for sale

November 12-15, 2008 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour; Quito Real Estate Tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-coastal-real-estate-tour

See discounts for two or more of these courses and tours

Multi Currency Seasoned Bond Yields


Multi currency seasoned bond yields offer special potential now.

One benefit of being aged 62, with 40+ years of global investing under the belt is that it is easier to spot rare opportunities that only come once in awhile, simply because I have experienced them before.

Current events in the multi currency seasoned bond market remind me of the last great credit crunch in the 1970s when you could earn high yields on multi currency bonds.

First, a quick primer on investing in seasoned multi currency bonds. A seasoned bond is a loan that was issued over six months ago. When that bond was issued, a currency, maturity date and (depending on the prevailing current interest rates at time of issue), an interest rate is set.

Take the US dollar GMAC Bond 6.875% 15/09/2011 as an example.

This means that General Motors Acceptance Corp. borrowed US dollars and promised to pay 6.875% interest until September 15, 2011 when it will repay the loan.

The bond, again depending on current interest rates and the credit rating of the company, was issued either at par or at a premium or discount.

If the bond was sold at par to begin, investors who invested $10,000 bought a $10,000 bond. If it was sold at a discount they paid less than $10,000 for a $10,000 bond. If there was a premium, investors paid more than $10,000.

Interest however is usually paid semi annually on $10,000 (though it can be quarterly or annually) so every six months (March and Sept.) the investor has received $343.75 (half the $687.50 which is 6.875% of $10,000).

This bond is seasoned because it is now offered for sale in the bond market…just like a share is sold on the stock market. However it is the interest rate, rather than potential dividend, that sets its fundamental price.

This GMAC bond above, as of September 2008, had three years until it matures (meaning when the $10,000 is paid back). Interest of $687.50 (6.875%) will be paid each year so this bond is worth in total $2,062 (6.875% interest) plus $10,000 (repaid in three years) or $12,062 over the three years. If interest rates rise to 7.5%, then the bond is worth less because a new bond offering 7.5% would be worth $12,250. The seasoned bond example would fundamentally be worth $188 less than a 7.5% bond. All other things being equal, the example seasoned bond above would sell at a discount price of about 99.

In other words, a new investor would only be willing to pay $9,900 for a $10,000 bond because $9,900 at 7.5% creates $742.50 a year of interest or $2,222.75. So the discount
makes up for the lower interest of 6.875% versus 7.500%.

That is the fundamental that drives bond prices…but just like shares, the market then has opinions based on the credit rating on how much interest rates will change, etc.
These opinions are based on the number of years to maturity, expected interest rate change and expected credit worthiness of the borrower. Just like shares on a stock market, bonds on the bond market are usually bought and sold for more or less than they are fundamentally worth based on a buyers and sellers differing opinion.

The same rule that applies to share markets applies to bond markets. “In the long term markets are efficient and can be trusted because they are ruled by fundamentals. In the short term, markets are unpredictable because they are ruled by human emotion.”

Right now bond markets appear similar where they were in the 1970s (when I made a killing by buying good quality bonds). It appears that the human emotion of fear has caused bonds to be oversold.

For example that US dollar 6.875% 15/09/2011 GMAC bond we used as an example above was for sale yesterday at 34.00. In other words an investor could have bought a $10,000 bond for $3,400. This created a yield potential of 54.27%. Investors would get back $12,062 over three years for an investment of $3,400. They nearly quadruple their money in three years.

This bond was used as an example but this lesson does not recommend this bond which has a junk bond credit rating.
The reason for this huge discount is that GMAC may not be able to repay the $10,000 in three years. Investors may lose part or all of their investment . Buying this bond is a speculation. Most of us should leave it to the gamblers and pros.

However, wise investments are available in better quality discounted seasoned bonds.

The current credit crisis has the corporate-bond market spiraling down. Corporate
bonds with low credit rating (like the GMAC above) have dropped by massive amounts. But also more secure, safer corporate bonds with a higher rating have been hit hard as well and are available at big discounts.

The spread on European euro denominated BB- rated corporate bonds has, for instance, increased sevenfold compared to the spread in the spring of 2007.

The euro spread is the extra interest earned above what a top quality major market government bond Such bonds are considered a baseline of safety. Risk premium is measured by how much more a bond will yield than these safest bonds.

The chart below shows that in 2007 investors could earn 3% more than the safest bonds. Now they can earn 7% more.

multi-currency-bond-spread

This large sell-off in reasonably safe bonds is due to investors’ search for liquidity. This falling price on these better credit corporate bonds creates a golden opportunity for long-term investors.

Take for example, a Gazprom bond denominated in euro with a 7.8% coupon (interest rate) that matures 27-09-2010 (September 27, 2010). This bond in the energy sector has a A3 / BBB but is selling at the discounted price of 97.50 which creates a 9.2% yield or 6.03% over the safety baseline.

All investments have risk…now more so than in most times. The key to good investing is to make sure you are paid an adequate premium for taking the risk.

As we look at examples above and below, remember that rates change continually so earnings an investor can actually make, may be more or less depending on rates at the time of investment.

In the Gazprom example above, a €9,750 investment on September 27, 2008 returns €11,840 over two years. €1,840 in interest and €10,000 in maturity September 27, 2010.

Let’s now look at a US dollar example of a Gazprom bond.

The 7.93% June 28, 2013 Gazprom issue is offered at the discounted price of 82.25. his creates a yield of 13.08% which is a premium of 10.64% over a US Treasury bond. Investors would pay $8,225 for the $10,000 bond in this example. The bond would then pay $793.30 per annum interest through June 2013. In 4.5 years this is a total interest earning of $3,600. Plus the bond, at maturity returns $10,000 or a total return. This creates a total return of $13,600 on the $8,225 investment. Over the four and a half years the total profit is $5,375 on $8,225 invested or 65.34% (about 14.52% per annum).

This is an excellent return for investment grade bonds.

In addition investors with $100,000 to invest can create a multi currency sandwich by borrowing up to one time the investment. US dollar loan interest is in the 4% range.

Imagine the example of an investor who invests $100,000 in December 2008, (used to make the calculation an easier 4.5 years, Dec. 2008 to June 2013) plus borrows $100,000 and invests the entire $200,000 into bonds of this type.

Assuming this same discount prevailed at that time, $200,000 would buy about $242,000 of such bonds at the discounted $82.25 price. The total interest earned from the bonds from now to June 2013 would be about $86,350 minus an interest cost of $18,000. This leaves $68,350 of net interest earned.

Plus of course $242,000 is paid back at bond maturity. The loan repayment would be $100,000 leaving $142,000. The total earnings on the original $100,000 invested would be $68,350 plus $142,000. The investor gets $210,350. This is a total net profit of $110,350 above the original $100,000 invested. This is a 110.35% total return or about 24.52% per annum over the 4.5 years.

There is no currency risk in the loan because it is in US dollars and the investment is in dollars as well.

What are the risks?

One risk is that the interest rate on the loan could rise. In this case you would normally just sell bonds to pay off the loan if the interest rate of your loan rose higher than your yield.

However there is another risk…normally one so remote we would barely mention it. With such short term bonds the capital value of good and even medium risk borrowers would hardly ever fall, unless there was some special corporate misfortune. Never would we expect all investment grade bonds to lose much capital value.

These are not normal times though. This is why we may never see such a guaranteed profit potential with such a low risk again.

However in the short term, if liquidity continues to tighten the yield on such bonds could rise even more and their capital value fall further. Be sure to review your liquidity needs with your investment advisor. You do not want to be caught having to sell at the wrong time. Plus if you leverage though a loan…never leverage more than you can afford to lose.

In a real time situation investors would also normally diversify into more than one bond for greater portfolio stability.

I have been sending my Multi Currency Course subscribers a seven chapter report about the bond potential now. This report contains a review of many bond recommendations. You can have this report as a multi currency subscriber. Learn more about how to subscribe to our multi currency course.

You can invest in the bonds mentioned above via Jyske Bank (American investors can use Jyske Global Asset Management JGAM).

I just finished a long meeting with Thomas Fischer at JGAM to review the updated services that JGAM. JGAM now has an advisory service so US investors can invest in multi currency seasoned bonds. Based on what I learned about the new services Jyske offers Americans, I am personally investing $1 million in a new program to help my multi currency course subscribers understand how to use these services.

You learn how to use this million dollar program when you subscribe to our multi currency course.

Jyske Bank’s Safety Rating

Jyske Bank is Denmark’s second largest bank and I have worked with them for over 20 years. They are my main bankers and investment advisors and have in depth multi currency investment experience.

On October 10 2008, Moody’s affirmed Jyske Bank’s long-term Aa2 rating stable rating. The affirmation of the ratings reflects Jyske Bank’s strong domestic retail and commercial banking franchise, current good asset quality, strong capitalization, and strong risk management. This decision came despite the deteriorated economic prospects in Denmark, particularly in respect of the property market.

New Danish Government Bank Guarantee

Also on Friday 10 October 2008, Jyske confirmed that it had no exposure to Iceland debt. In addition the Danish Parliament passed a bill that secured all deposits and unsecured claims against losses in Danish financial institutions. The agreement was designed to reassure both depositors and the banking community. It is up to each bank to decide to join the new guarantee scheme. Jyske Bank announced that it will join the new government guarantee scheme. During the two-year programme, banks cannot issue dividends, make share buy-backs or establish or renew share option schemes for managers. The rating of the Kingdom of Denmark is Aaa/AAA with Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s respectively.

For more details on how to buy multi currency seasoned bonds at Jyske bank aand JGAM contact:

US investors contact Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors contact Rene Mathys at mathys@jbpb.dk

Until next message, may your multi currency investing bond with high profits.

Gary

There is great beauty here in the Blue Ridge as the leaf change begins to take hold. Here is my front yard view now.

multi-currency-purpose

The salmons and gold mean its time to think SOUTH, WARM and SUNNY. This will be my Cotacachi Ecuador view soon.

Join Merri, me, Steve, Kjetil Haugan and Peter Conradsen of Jyske Global Asset Management in Cotacachi Ecuador. We’ll review economic conditions, Ecuador real estate, my entire portfolio, seasoned bonds and investing and business ideas for the months ahead.

Our delegates have a great time as they learn. Here is last week’s group enjoying an organic wine and cheese reception after the course at Bohemia Gallery and Cafe in West Jefferson North Carolina.

multi-currency-seminar-delegates

Nov 7-9 2008 International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/international-business-made-ez-ecuador

Stay on for the real estate tour Cotacachi and surrounding areas. See wonderful condos like this for sale at $46,000 in Cotacachi.

multi-currency-Ecuador-condos

Nov 10-11 Cotacachi-Imbabura Real Estate tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-real-estat

Then travel to the coast. See Vistazul condos like this for $89,000.

Ecuador-beach-condo

With this clubhouse view.

Picture 9

November 12-15, 2008 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour; Quito Real Estate Tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-coastal-real-estate-tour

See discounts for two or more of these courses and tours

Multi Currency Question – Recession


Here is a good multi currency question about the global recession.

Recessions create opportunity for multi currency investors, but not always in the short term. Good value oriented multi currency investors may even suffer more during downturns. Recessions improve value in multi currency portfolios but the profits from this value comes only when markets recover.

Value investors are not market timing investors. This is good because most market timers usually lose in the long term.

Well diversified multi currency portfolios reduce volatility but do not eradicate it totally as is explained in the answer to this good multi currency question.

Here is the multi currency question:

“HI Gary, First let me send my love to you and Merri from Israel and thank you for your sharing of info. The question I have is: With the credit problems and banks going under and reduced credit globally shouldn’t this bring down global valuations on stocks? Wouldn’t it be a risky time time to be invested in most stock markets? I read that it is the credit that is propping up the share value. I also read that it is possible for 150 banks to go under, that seems like it would be a huge ripple effect. It seems that it is not isolated to just the states, last week I read about the Danish bank in serious problems. I remember you recommending property, commodities and shares to fight inflation. Do you think the shares rewards outweigh the risk in times like these? Thanks for any insight without panic.”

Here is a reply about multi currency investing that you may find worth study.

Thanks for your question.

First, we are not advocates of market timing. Remember rule number seven of the Seven Rules of Global Investing. “Value is reflected long term. Equity markets are efficient in the long run but are not effective short term due to human behavior”.

Having said this, we do realign the weighting of our investing activity based on our beliefs of where the 30 year market cycle stands. To learn more about the thirty year cycle.

Longer term subscribers know that we began warning about equity markets in August 2007 (the 17th to be exact) when we wrote: “Such historical measures are so inexact that we cannot predict just from them what will happen in the short term. The numbers are close enough that we could be entering the fourth sub cycle down (similar to 1976 to 1978). If so expect a sustained drop in markets for two to three years.” See the entire warning here.

Our September 21, 2007, message said: “Equity markets dropped again violently last month. Now these markets have recovered again. Yet this may be a last gasp party. This drop of interest rates at a time when inflation is beginning to soar could lead to a rapidly falling US dollar. We can see from the chart here that the dollar has done almost nothing but drop for 40 years (that chart is below). Yet much more dollar dropping could be in store.”

The October 14, 2007 message stated: “Periods of high performance are followed by times of low returns. We never know for sure when an upwards cycle will stall. Fundamentals look good for a bright 2008 in emerging and equity markets, but this can change quickly so to give our readers a better perspective, this year we are reducing leverage and adding a sixth portfolio with no leverage to study”.

Oct. 15, 2007 we wrote: “Okay, it’s time to turn the burner down.”

We offered a “leverage dwindling” warning on Oct. 26 where I explained to readers that I had eliminated even my modest leverage and wrote: “There is a final reason I liquidated my leverage now…to lead by example. Too many readers are thinking that the dollar short or dollar neutral Portfolios are only up 38% or 48% for the year. When one thinks that way they could be headed for trouble, so I hope investors will follow my lead and take greater care with their leverage.”

The November 8, 2007 Black Friday interim message warned about all the points above and more. At that time I let readers know that I had reduced the equity portion of my personal portfolio to 6%.

My published portfolio at that time was.

Real Estate 43.0%
Euro 10.5%
Emerging markets 10.0%
Danish kroner 9.9%
US$ 8.2%
British pound 6.0%
Swedish kroner 4.0%
NZ$ 3.7%
Aust. $ 1.0%
Canadian $ 1.0%

The liquid portion of my portfolio was

Cash 9.7%
Equities 6.0%
Bonds 31.7%
Emerging Equities 1.5%
Emerging Bonds 8.5%

There is a chance that equities will fall further. Yesterday’s Multi Currency Portfolio update focused on why value investments tend to drop more in downturns than the norm.

However, this is the best way to make long term multi currency profits…buy good value shares on the downside. One can never predict when the market will turn and when it does turn most market timers get in too late.

I lean towards real estate rather than shares because this is fun for me.

The way each person should position the multi currency portfolio should be based on what they love, enjoy and know best…real estate, commodities or shares. All three asset classes offer more potential than any one person can capture in a lifetime. Why not go with what brings the greatest joy in your life?

Regards,

Gary

P.S. Don’t miss our offer that expires the end of July 2008 for Fresh Ecuador Roses 50 FREE

Learn how to be a better multi currency investor.

Join us and stay at our farm for Susan Rotman’s business intuition course.

Dine with Merri’s excellent home cooking served outdoors in the cool mountain air.

outdoor-cooking

See dates for our Autumn courses and tours:

Visit the San Clemente condos and real estate from Manta north and south. Here are the condos going up.

ecuador-coastal-condos

Ecuador Coastal-Quito Real Estate Tour

Ecuador Super Thinking + Spanish Course

Enjoy learning at our Cotacachi hotel

open-air-learning

Ecuador Imbabura Real Estate Tour

International Investing and Business Made EZ North Carolina

Ecuador Ecuador Import Export Course

International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador

See discounts for attending more than one course.

America Leads the Way


America Leads the way…sadly often in the wrong direction.

Though my name is Scott, I like so many Americans am also Irish, thanks to my Grandma McGee.  In fact though she lived in Oregon for more than sixty years, she never became a US citizen.

Yet I have done nothing about this and remain only a US citizen…nor do I intend to.  First, it’s a lot of work registering that Irish citizenship…getting all the documents together and such.  Yet there are other reasons…we’ll see in a moment.

In a recent discussion with a friend, who was also a dual national,  I learned that he gave up his American citizenship.

His reasons were good but for many this does not make sense.  The second reason I remain in the US…this is one of the countries I know my way around best.  I have friends and family and a terrific support system developed here.

The number one rule for good investing and business is to do what you love. Rule #2 is to do or invest in what you know.

I love the US, this magnificent country and the wonderful people so the US is a good place for me to be.

Too few people who leave the US think of this personal aspect.  They become so caught up in high taxation or the bad parts of this nation’s evolution and want to leave. I do not blame them but recommend that they are sure they know where they are going before they irrevocably leave the US.

While recently visiting friends in Seattle, I was talking with their cleaning lady and her daughter from the Czech Republic.  They told me how they had moved to America to be in the land of the free and to live the American dream.  Now they are going back for better opportunity in Eastern Europe.  Plus they feel they will have more freedom there.

For the Czech couple, this may make sense.  They know the Czech Republic and have more friends, family and support back in their original home.

This is a pretty bad commentary on America where opportunity used to be so good that to was worth giving up the old for the new.

Now maybe it’s not.  So many freedoms have been lost in America.   So many new regulations have been been born.  Life is now so complicated.  America is  burdened with an overworked tort system, a failing health and insurance system and monumental federal debt that has and continues to destroy the dollar.

Many Americans feel stifled.  Many fear things will get even worse.

There can be tax benefits to moving abroad (though new tax laws tax those who leave and any gifts they give to Americans before they leave).  It is certainly easier to open a bank account abroad if you are not a US citizen, plus if one has immigrated, a citizenship elsewhere can make life in one’s new country easier and better as well.

Plus I know from living abroad for decades how one feels out from under the eye “Big Brother”, once you live in another country.

Despite these facts, (this may seem strange for me, as one of the first proponents of being a one man multi national), I have no plans to abandon my US citizenship….nor my residence in the US.

This is a well informed choice.  I have lived for many years in Asia, Europe and Latin America as well as the US….so my choice is based on experience.

This global lifestyle has confirmed one important fact….every country has its great good points and its flaws.

If I know and like the US, have children and grandchildren here…why move?
Why spend the time and resources to make a switch?

I see nothing wrong with changing citizenships, especially for those who earn and live abroad, but except in certain cases, I wonder if the benefits are worth the effort?

Instead I devote my efforts to maintaining flexibility and utilizing options.

To me flexibility in earning and asset allocation are more important than citizenship because change is taking place everywhere.  I would rather be a US citizen and have one or two other places to go if everything goes south here, than abandon one of the places I know best, for somewhere new that could have negative changes as well.

America has problems but regrettably as the world’s biggest economy leads the way for other nations to follow.

Take federal deficit spending as an example. For many years it was easy to invest out of the US dollar. The American government was a spendthrift going deeper and deeper into a more of debt.  Other industrial, nations, especially Germany and Japan were much more fiscally prudent.  The the Japanese and German’s learned from the US how to borrow massively every time the economy slowed.

There is a great erosion of freedom in other countries also not just the US.

Let’s look at some specifics.

A July 2 USA Today article entitled “IRS gets OK to request UBS information” says:

“A federal judge in Miami authorized the Internal Revenue Service to request information from UBS about U.S. taxpayers who may be using Swiss bank accounts to evade federal income taxes,” the Justice Department said Tuesday.

“The so-called John Doe summons is used to obtain information about possible tax fraud by people whose identities are unknown. The judge granted the government’s request for a court order a day after it made what a Justice Department spokesman called an unprecedented request for the records. The order ‘directs UBS to produce records identifying U.S. taxpayers with accounts at UBS in Switzerland who elected to have their accounts remain hidden from the IRS,’ the Justice Department said in a statement.”

To me this is a horrible breach of law. How can UBS know if a taxpayer has their account hidden from the IRS?

Yet the US is not alone. Take the UK as an example. I love England was resident there for a decade in this nation and was resident there for many years…but the wonderful freedoms of the Common Law have been eroding just ike in the US.

A recent article at Telegraph.com entitled “Safety deposit box raids yield £1bn of drugs, cash and guns” by Richard Edwards, says:

“Police have seized a potential £1 billion ‘treasure trove’ of cash, drugs and guns in an unprecedented raid on concrete vaults holding 7,000 safety deposit boxes.
Police officers close Park Street in Mayfair before raiding Park Lane Safe Deposit in connection with suspected money laundering operations.”

“Members of the public who have innocently and legally stored their valuables were ‘inevitably’ going to get swept up in the disruption, it was predicted. Police said they could use a freephone number – 0800 030 4613 – to claim back their goods.”

In both cases, innocent parties who have done nothing illegal nor even irregular are going to be inconvenienced at the least.

Let’s look at Canada in another example. Many Canadians are in a fuss over the proposed C-51 laws.  WWW.stop c51 warns Canadians that Bill C-51 will allow government agents to:

* Enter private property without a warrant                    Section 23 (4)
* Confiscate your property at their discretion, at your cost     Section 23.3 a
* Dispose of your property at their discretion, at your cost     Section 23.3 c
* Seize your bank accounts without a warrant                     Section 23 (2)
* Levy fines of up to $5,000,000.00 / 2 years in jail per offense. Section 31.1
* Allow laws to be created in Canada, behind closed doors, with the assistance of foreign governments, industrial and trade organizations     Section 30.7
* Allow ‘Crack house style’ of enforcement on natural health providers
Section 23.1″
Plus the site warns more losses of freedom.

There is a government site that says this law will not create these problems but one wonders.  When income tax was first introduced in the US, it was promised it would never rise beyond 2%!

America has enormous tort problems. Every US business worries about lawsuits,
but before you move to France to escape this problem read this article:

“A French court on Monday ordered the online auction giant eBay to pay 38.6 million euros, or $61 million, in damages to the French luxury goods company LVMH, in the latest round in a long-running legal battle over the sale of counterfeit goods on the Internet.

“LVMH, a maker of high-end leather goods, perfumes and other fashion and luxury products, successfully challenged eBay for a second time in the French court, arguing that 90 percent of the Louis Vuitton bags and Dior perfumes sold on eBay are fakes.

“The court ruled that eBay, which earns a commission on the sales, was not doing enough to stamp out counterfeit sales.”

Change is everywhere.  We should always look for a balance in our living, earning and investing, that fits our lifestyle and circumstances.  We should seek flexibility and options…but remember that problems are everywhere.

Thank God for problems.  Problems are a sign of evolution and problems create opportunity.  Who wants to live in a land without opportunity?

The problems we see from eroding freedoms are not dilemmas unique to the USA.
They are problems of increased populations all trying to do and have more.  Life seems more complicated today because it is more complicated in some ways.

The more moving parts a machine has…the more likely it will break.   Our social systems have more and more people moving faster and governments working to do just that-govern. One definition of govern is: “manipulate b: to control the speed of (as a machine) especially by automatic means.”

Wherever you live…work…earn look for the problems and figure out the opportunity. If part of that opportunity comes in the form of a new residence or citizenship…that’s great. Go for it…yet realize that this is not the best solution for everyone.

Until next message, may all your freedom come from within and all your problems be good.

Gary

Learn ways to increase your earnings options though international business.

Join us on the farm.

farm pond

Enjoy our deep woods hot tub.

Little horse Creek hot tub

Join us and stay at our farm for Susan Rotman’s business intuition course.

farm-view

Enjoy the mountain cool and summer views as you learn.

See more about the farm

Study our online correspondence courses:

International Business Made EZ

“Self Fulfilled”, my Self Publishing Course

Or Join our Ecuador Import Export Tour this October.

Here is what a reader recently wrote about this course:

“We are now generating business from our Ecuador site www.retire-in-ecuador.com. People are responding to go and live in Ecuador. Our imports from Ecuador are also going well. We have only been trading for 6 weeks, and some customers (gift shops) have re-ordered four times. We only need 100 like them and we will have a sustainable business. We are currently establishing about 10 new customers per week, and are in the process of appointing agents for the other states. We will soon have an “Andes Artisans” site operating www.andes-artisans.com. So keep an eye out.”