Tag Archive | "Emerging markets"

Emerging Versus Developed Markets Spring 2019


Where will the best investing opportunities be next?

I have a mental and emotional bias about emerging markets. They may not be what you would imagine because the ideas were created by impressions of stock market growth in the 1960s and 1970s.

I was in the midst of things, living in Hong Kong as that market led the way when emerging markets first emerged with explosive growth.

Starting in the late 1960s the Hang Seng Share Index rose from 100 into 2,700 range over the next 20 years, while the Dow, representing the US stock market, went from the 7,000 range down into the 5,000 range.

Since then Hong Kong has rised from 2,700 to over 32,000 (a nearly 12 times increase) while the Dow rose about five times.

hang Seng

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng stock Index 1987 to April 2019.

That incredible growth in the past influences my thoughts and feelings about future investing in emerging markets today, but experiences of the past are now pretty irrelevant.

The influence of markets past is a weakness so I try to ignore trends and look at value because value is the key… not past and current performance.

For example, the Hang Seng Index rose just 11% from 29,438 in November 2007 to 32,930 in April 2018.  11% in 11 years works out to a lousy 1% per annum.  The Dow rose around 75% in those same 11 years.

What’s next?

Will the trend reverse again and Hong Kong and emerging market rise faster than the US and developed markets?

First Hong Kong is no longer considered and emerging market.  Second, most emerging markets are at very different stages of maturity, in completely different positions in a global economy that did not exist in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s.

Third, no one knows which sector will perform the best.

To overcome our inability to see the future, and to ignore my prejudices, I stick to facts relating to value.

There are only two financial reasons to own shares in a company… the dividends received… or the expectation of a rising share price.

Last week we sent Purposeful Investing Course subscribers the 79 page Keppler Asset Management Developed market analysis and the 52 page Emerging market analysis.

One powerful aspect of these studies is that they deal only with facts relating to value… not projections.

The tables below shows how the Developed and Emerging Market Top Value Model Portfolios compare to selected indices as of the end of March 2019, based on important variables (current numbers for book value, 12-months trailing numbers for price-to-earnings and dividend yields.  There are no forecasts… just facts.

The first table below shows that Emerging Top Value Markets are selling at 1.37 times book value and taht Developed Top Value Markets are selling at 1.40 times book.

keppler

Keppler says:  According to our analyses, the asset class Emerging Markets Equities is now undervalued by 23 % compared with the MSCI World Index of the developed markets.

Moreover, the Emerging Markets Top Value ModelPortfolio is undervalued by 17 % compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets (Standard) Index, by 37 % versus the MSCI World Index and by a whopping 47 % compared to the MSCI EM Growth Index.

A 47% under valuation is pretty dramatic, but the stats below for developed markets show that they are undervalued even more (56%).

keppler

The analysis shows that the all time high price-to-book of the MSCI World Index was at the end of 1999.  That all time high was 4.23 times book value.  The World Growth Index dividend yield is near an all time low.

The current MSCI World Growth Index was selling at 4.21 times book… just a fraction below the all time high.

Here are some facts we can derive from this analysis.

* Growth shares around the world are selling at near all time highs.

* Growth shares around the world are paying all time low average dividends.

* The sector with the best price-to-book value is the “Emerging Market Value Sector”.

* Top Value Emerging Markets and Top Value Developed Markets have very similar price-to- book, but the top value developed markets have a higher average dividend payout.

* All the value sectors in both developed and emerging sectors are dramatically more attractive that their growth counterparts.

Keppler says: Current annual earnings growth of the MSCI World Value Index of 19.0 % beats the earnings growth of the MSCI World Growth Index of 13.1 % by 5.9 percentage points.

This does not make sense considering that the MSCI World Growth Index now sells at a premium of 115 % to the MSCI World Value Index based on key fundamentals, e.g. book value, cash flow, earnings and dividends.

The change in favor of value strategies is now long overdue: There is no reason left to buy growth stocks!

While the average developed market—as measured by the KAM Equally Weighted World Index—is now under-valued by 23 % vs. the cap-weighted MSCI World Index based on traditional valuation measures, the Top Value Markets are undervalued by 34 % compared to the cap-weighted MSCI World Index and by a whopping 56 % compared to the MSCI World Growth Index.

Based on these fundamental relationships, our total return expectations for the Top Value Markets over the next three to five years stand at 7.7 % p.a. or 2.9 percentage points above the 4.8 % we expect for the (cap-weighted) MSCI World Index.

Based on Keppler’s statistics I have not changed the weighting calculations I use in my portfolio.  I invest equally (via country ETFs) in top value markets, giving 70% weighting to developed markets and 30% to emerging markets.  I however treat China as a developed market and, as does Keppler, have smaller positions in some of the smaller emerging markets (such as Malaysia) due to liquidity and political concerns.

Every person has beliefs based on experience.   These thoughts can be useful or not, but a common emotion is one that feels good when stock markets are up and feels bad when markets are down.

Warren Buffett wrote this about this type of thinking applied to the stock market:

“To refer to a personal taste of mine, I’m going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the ‘Hallelujah Chorus’ in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it’s the same with everything in life they will be buying — except stocks. When stocks go down and you can get more for your money, people don’t like them anymore.”

When the price of a good company or a stock market falls, the value usually goes up.  Ultimately the rising value creates opportunity for value investors and creates loss for most investors who ride share prices tides in boats of emotion rather than sturdy ships of fact.

Gary

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Canadian Investing Opportunity


Here is a stock market warning and an opportunity for profit.

I track the advice of three investment analysts.  Keppler Asset Management, Tradestops.com and ENR Asset Management in Montreal Canada.  ENR is one of the last SEC registered advisors that can help Americans set up investing accounts overseas.

Each month ENR CEO Eric Roseman sends an Advisroy extra bulletin to ENR’s largest clients.  This bulletin is only available to ENR’s special clients and to our Purposeful Investing Course subscribers.

This month Eric’s Advisory Extra delivers a stock market warning and shows an opportunity in global shares.

The Warning

Eric writes: Markets, however, have gained more than 17% off the December 24 lows based on the MSCI
World Index. Though this is the best start for investors since 1987, some pullback or deep
correction lies ahead as we approach Q1 corporate earnings season; a surging USD will make
revenues challenging this winter coupled with the disappearing effects of earlier tax changes.

Earnings aren’t going to be pretty.

The S&P 500 Index and the MSCI World Index have surged since January 4th following the
Federal Reserve’s pivot to neutral. The Fed has literally abandoned its monetary tightening
campaign since December 2015 in the face of plunging asset markets, buckling credit and
falling consumer confidence since December.

Consumer confidence has since rebounded but many important gauges tracking credit continue to deteriorate, including residential mortgage demand (now contracting); commercial real estate loan demand (contracting); credit card demand (contracting); auto loan demand (contracting) and consumer loan demand (contracting).

There’s no doubting credit demand is faltering.

It’s hard to imagine the Fed bailing on rate hikes when the U.S. unemployment rate sits at its
lowest level in 50 years. It’s unheard of.

But dig deeper underneath the surface and the credit markets have started to buckle, including the ‘bubble’ in leveraged loans, high-yield, student loans, credit card debt and collateralized loans.

Wall Street never learns from its mistakes.

It also concerns me that commercial and industrial loans are contracting year-over-year, mortgage originations are down considerably since last year and consumer auto loans are the highest on record with a good chunk of outstanding originations in the ‘junk’ category.

Again,this is typical of late-cycle economic activity when the consumer and corporations are
leveraged, and governments have issued record levels of sovereign debt.

Then there’s S&P 500 Index, which ties in to my USD concerns.

The S&P 500 Index, in my view, has already entered an earnings recession this quarter and faces big hurdles as corporations report first quarter earnings later in April. The US Dollar is too strong. The USD
Index has rallied 6% year-over-year — one of its biggest gains since 2014. With the S&P 500 Index getting about 44% of revenues overseas, the dollar has a dramatic effect on earnings.  In any given year, the dollar’s performance impacts about 45% of net earnings, according to Morgan Stanley.

The dollar is going to hurt companies this quarter. As an important side note, the dollar’s ongoing ascent might also be telling investors that perhaps the Powell Fed isn’t done raising interest rates, despite his admission to ‘pausing’ in January. If markets climb to new highs again, the Fed might raise rates later this year, and that won’t be good for stocks.

The Opportunity

These global economic circumstances are changing investing trends and another analysts we track Tradestops.com shows that value shares are starting to heat up.

tradestops.com

Eric confirms the profit opportunity in this ETF.

Eric writes: I continue to advise gradually increasing exposure to global equities with a tilt towards the
emerging markets and value-based securities.

That’s especially the case when markets decline. Stocks have enjoyed huge gains since early January with no signs of weakening, supported by strong market breadth and a Fed now on their side. Also, the individual investor, who sold U.S. stock mutual funds and ETFs in 2018 (a good call) are still net sellers in 2019.

The Fed may have given a ‘green’ light to investors to speculate, but it’s imperative
remembering this is an advanced late-cycle global expansion. Cracks in some credit markets
are bearish signs and typical of leveraged expansions. Similar stresses on credit markets
began appearing in 2007 and in 1998. Big risks lie in the investment-grade bond market where issuance went off the charts from 2012 to 2018; almost half of this market is represented by BBB-rated debt or one notch above junk.

It’s an accident waiting to happen when defaults start rising. I’d avoid all bonds, except Treasury’s and some floating rate debt.

The iShares International Value Factor ETF (NYSE-IVLU) gained 1.9% in February and is up 9% this year.  This is the only international ETF I’ve surveyed that’s selling below book-value; IVLU closed February 27 trading at a 4% discount to book and just 9.4x trailing earnings. Big geographic holdings in Japan and Europe. BUY up to $24.50.

I sit up and take extra notice when two of  my advisors tell me the same thing.  My third advisor Keppler Asset Managers, as always recommends an equally weighted portfolio of  good value markets as described below.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

motif

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

A Value Trend Emerges


Here is a quote from the introduction of our Purposeful investing Course.

Recent news about Social Security, pensions and health care shows that the US government has excessive debt.  We, as individuals, need tactics to make sure when governments, pensions and insurers weasel out of their promises, so that we can take care of ourselves.

One way to take care of our financial future is to seek value investments.  There is now extra value in Emerging Markets, and a value trend has emerged from this fact.

Our course on value investing, The Purposeful investing Course (Pi)  is a continual education program that learns by tracking model three mathematically based asset management systems to spot and understand value:  Keppler Asset Management, ENR Asset Management and Tradestops.com.

When two or three of these systems tell the same story, I pay special attention.

This is the case with emerging market valuations now.

Last week’s message Keppler’s Emerging Perspectives showed how China and India are pulling ahead of the Western World, in education for the future.

Tradestops.com’s latest review shows that emerging market stock markets are trending upwards in the here and now.

Richard Smith CEO of Tradestops.com (1) wrote:

Another Bullish Sign for Emerging Markets:

We’ve been bullish on emerging markets all year long. Now we’ve got another reason to be bullish, a reason with a 100% positive track record over the last 14 years.

Last December, we presented our bullish thesis on the emerging markets and EEM, the iShares Emerging Markets ETF.

Five weeks ago we wrote our latest article revealing why we believe the path of least resistance is to the upside – even with EEM trading at all-time highs.

EEM triggered a Stock State Indicator (SSI) Entry signal in August 2016. It twice touched just barely into the SSI Yellow Zone. The last brush was in December, but it has remained in the SSI Green Zone since then.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/37916647144/in/dateposted-public/

EEM Looks good but there is something better.

Keppler Asset Management’s October 2017 quarterly update showed that emerging markets offer better value than developed market at this time.

keppler

This chart from the Keppler Asset Management for October  2017 Emerging Market Value Analysis, shows how much better the MSCI emerging index is versus the MSCI developed market index.

EEM tracks the MSCI Emerging Markets, and we can see in the same chart that the “Top Value Portfolio” (currently 11 top value emerging markets) have an even better value than the emerging MSCI index.

Pi’s philosophy is to invest in these best value markets.  Investing equally in 11 iShare ETFs that each tracks one of the good value emerging markets which offers a better chance of the highest  long term growth than the MSCI Index for all emerging markets.

Here are the Keppler best value emerging markets.  We should note that due to political risk Keppler has reduced weighting in some emerging markets.

keppler

Here is the Emerging Market Pifolio we have tracked at Tradestops.com for the past two years.

tradestops

The Pifolio is up 23.61% since we began tracking it.  There was no position in Russia or Poland as there were no ETFs to cover these positions when we began.  New ETFs for these markets have been added in 2017.

The emerging Pifolio was equally weighted in shares-not dollar amount-so it has grown lopsided and we have created a new more equally weighted portfolio to track and learn from in 2018.

You can gain from this new Equally Weighted Emerging market Pifolio as a subscriber to the Purposeful investing Course which in this special offer the subscription is FREE.

Whether you subscribe or not, when investing, always look for value and remember that you can create special opportunity when you spot trends as they emerge.

Gary

Join The International Club for all of 2018 NOW.  Save $418.78.

Club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of numerous Model Portfolios, called Pifolio.

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

There are no secrets about this portfolio except that these mathematicians  ignore the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save $299.

Club members also receive Pi and the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip 2017” FREE.

The Pi subscription is just one small benefit of club membership.

Members receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • The course “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Self Publish & SNAP”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”
  • The course “International Business Made EZ”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”

Club members also learn ways to be be healthier and have more energy.   I have created three natural health reports about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However you’ll receive all three FREE as club member and save $59.85.

 

Save $418.78… when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Purposeful investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program including SNAP”.  Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”.  Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2017”.  Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.   All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: Plus updates and other report I release in 2018.  Free.

These reports, courses and programs would cost $767.78 so the 2018 membership saves $418.78.

The International Club membership is $499. 

To encourage our first 100 members for 2018 to join quickly so we are currently accepting discounted membership at $349. 

Save $418.78.  Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons through the rest of 2017 and all of 2018 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Click here to become a member at $89 per quarter charge automatically to your credit card

Gary

(1)  You can learn how to use Tradestops.com to improve investing discipline.

New Wealth From New Perspective


Here is some important perspective on the potential value of emerging markets versus developed markets.

This information changes my thinking about the balance of developed versus emerging markets in my portfolio.

In the 1970s through 1990s, I helped subscribers earn fortunes investing in emerging markets, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Turkey and Taiwan to name a few.

Then in the 1990s we reaped outstanding profits in the Dominican Republic and Ecuador, but in real estate… not shares.

The sentiment changed in the 2000s and investors began to favor developed markets.

I am not sure why, but the puzzle behind this fact is outlined in the Wall Street Journal article “Developed Economies’ Stock Gains Pale Beside Emerging Markets’ GDP Boom” (1).

The article says”  Divergent performances between advanced and developing worlds puzzle observers—and are unlikely to persist.

wall street Journal

There’s something about economic growth and stock markets, across the developed and emerging world, that doesn’t add up.

For most of the past decade, the stock markets of developed countries have powered higher even as their economies struggled with sluggish growth.

By contrast, emerging-market economies have grown dramatically but their stock markets have been dismal.

U.S. stocks have climbed 76% over the past decade, outperforming India’s market by more than 10 percentage points, the Brookings program calculated. Over that same period, however, India’s economy grew 89% vs. just 14% for the U.S.

Over the last decade, China’s economy has more than doubled in size while its market has declined 35%.

Recently Keppler Asset Management produced a report entitled “Perspectives”.

I have sent this entire report to Purposeful investing Course (Pi) subscribers but want to share three of the graphs from “Perspectives” with you.

The graphs show how and why economic growth of emerging markets might continue to outshine growth in developed nations.

An IMF study shows that emerging market economies now represent more than half the world’s GDP and why emerging market economies might continue outpacing developing economies.

Screen Shot 2017-11-20 at 7.30.30 AM

Success in education has shifted to emerging countries.   Half of all 25 to 34 year olds with a tertiary degree will be in India and China.

Screen Shot 2017-11-20 at 7.26.24 AM

India and China, especially, skyrocket past all other countries in science, technology, engineering and mathematics graduates.

Screen Shot 2017-11-20 at 7.26.39 AM

Yet we have not advised Purposeful investors to just jump into Chinese and Indian shares.

The perspective is important but no one can predict the future.

This is why Pi looks first and foremost at value.

Emerging markets offer better value than developed markets, but not all emerging markets are good value.

The Keppler Emerging Market Top Value Portfolio offers a better value than the Developed Market Value Portfolio.  1.43 price to book versus 1.54.  13.4 PE ratio versus 17.8.

The developed market dividend yield at 3.18% is marginally better than the 3.15%  dividend yield of emerging markets.   Perhaps the rush for yield in the low interest rate environment explains part of the developed emerging anomaly.

keppler

keppler

Keppler’s analysis over 90+ years has shown that an equal investment in  the good value markets brings the highest returns.  China deserves a position.

India, as these charts from the latest Pi update show, is a poor value market.

keppler

keppler

keppler

I have had 70% developed versus 30% emerging ratio in my portfolio.

Now I am asking, “Why favor developed markets”?

Some deeply ingrained fear from old world thinking perhaps?

Maybe concerns about political unrest in emerging markets?  Current politics in the UK, France, Germany and the US might change this sentiment.

I am thinking through this process and am likely to increase my weighting in emerging markets.

I’ll have a chat with Michael Keppler after the holiday and share the decisions I make here with Pi subscribers.  See below how to subscribe to Pi today

Gary

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

(1) www.wsj.com: Developed economies stock gains pale next to emerging markets boom

A Turkey of an Investing Lesson


Here is a turkey of a lesson about investing.

With Thanksgiving around the corner, many are focused on getting a turkey.

My thinking is on a lesson about Turkey.

The lesson affects my wealth… and can help you increase and keep yours.

The key to good value investing is to rely on mathematically based financial news instead of the guesswork and conjecture in the economic news. 

We make our investment decisions based on the value analysis of global stock markets by Keppler Asset Management.

Keppler breaks the analysis into two categories, Developed and Merging Markets.

For several years there was no change in Keppler’s emerging country ratings.  There were ten emerging markets — Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Russia and Taiwan.

According to to Keppler’s analyses, an equally weighted combination of these most attractively valued markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

Then at the beginning of 2017 Keppler added Turkey as a good value emerging market.

Over the years, I have been a big investor in Turkey. This market has performed exceedingly well.

Yet I had exited Turkey when it turned into a poor value market.

When it shifted and began offering good value again, I ignored my own good advice.  I used my conjecture based on erroneous political thought and ignored the value.

“Turkey has too many problems”, I thought.

I was worried about the way that Turkey’s constitutional referendum took place, and how the voting did not meet international standards.

Also I did not like Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s harsh response to the attempted coup, the increased arrests and the additional delegitimization of parliamentary opposition.

I worried that these changes could further destabilize Turkish politics.

So many concerns.  I did not invest in Turkey despite the value.

In Keppler’s autumn 2017 emerging market analysis he wrote:  The best performing markets so far this year were China (+44.0 %), Turkey (+34.1 %) and Peru (+29.0 %).

Despite the economic and political news coming out of Turkey, this was the second best performing emerging market this year.

I missed a big profit because I ignored the value.

The table below shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and to the MSCI World Index as of the end of September 2017, based on selected assets and earnings valuation measures:

keppler

Based on Keppler’s analyses, the asset class Emerging Markets Equities is now undervalued by 18 % compared with the MSCI World Index of the developed markets.

Furthermore, our Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is undervalued by 19 % versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and by 34% versus the MSCI World Index.

The outlook for further out performance of emerging market equities versus the developed markets in general and of the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio in particular, over the next three to five years, remains favorable.

According to Keppler’s analyses, an equally weighted combination of these most attractively valued markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

Gary

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/5909014941/in/photolist-a1afgX-a1d6vu-a1d6r7-a18iJ6-a1b61w-pVCPYm-pVKgyB-pVCNR1-b6dbJn-4XpTvn-Bu6c32-a3Ltu1-97YGzk-8AiSzK-8ogwR2-8ojuib-8ogj6x-8ogj12-8ogiQn-8ogiMB-8ojtBW-8ogi8n-8oghJT-8ojsCu-8ojsm5-8oggEt-8ojrA9-83sUQc-83sUJg-83vYgN-83vX1o-83vWFN-83vL4y-83vJp1-83sBB8-83vHnm-83sAi6-83syGk-83opmC-7ZSdvK-7ZVo8W-7VHwoi-6Vu1vH-6VtZNX-6Vy4vQ-6VtYzv-6Vy3FS-6Vy3zj-6Vy3n7-6Vy2oS/

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

Opportunity Emerging


Emerging stock markets are offering good value as developed market prices have swollen.

Here is an excerpt from the latest Purposeful investing Course (Pi) Emerging market update.

This is Keppler Asset Management’s Recent Developments & Outlook of emerging markets

After a strong performance last year, emerging markets equities have continued to perform well in the first half of 2017.

Currency movements, however, turned out to be more important than stock price changes lately.  In the second quarter, the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index (ND) gained 6.6 % in local currencies and 6.3 % in US dollars.  Due to the strong recovery of the euro, however, it lost 0.3 % in euros.

Year-to date, the global emerging markets benchmark index returned 14.8 % in local currencies, 18.4 % in US dollars and 9.5 % in euros.

Among the three regional indices, Asia returned 9.1 %; Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) gained 0.7 % and Latin America declined 0.4 % in the last three months.

In the first half of 2017, Asia gained 19.7 %, EMEA was up 0.6 % and Latin America advanced 7.2 %.  Performance is in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

Pakistan was upgraded from Frontier Market status to join the MSCI Emerging Markets Index on June 1, 2017. Since no market was downgraded, there are now 24 markets included in the MSCI EM Index.

Eighteen markets advanced in the second quarter and six markets (including Pakistan) declined.

The best performing markets were Greece (+25.5 %), Turkey (+15.4 %) and Korea (+12.8 %). Qatar (-10.4 %), Russia (-6.2 %) and Brazil (-2.6 %) performed worst last quarter.

Year-to-date, twenty-one markets advanced and three markets declined. The best performing markets in the first half of 2017 were Turkey (+32.4 %), China (+25.5 %) and Korea (+22.0 %). Russia (-16.2 %), Qatar (-8.7 %) and Pakistan (-3.9 %) came in last.

In the second quarter 2017, the Top Value Model Portfolio advanced 4.7 % in local currencies and 5.3 % in US dollars but declined 1.3 % in euros.

Year-to-date, the Top Value Model Portfolio gained 12.0 % in local currencies, 15.9 % in US dollars and 7.2 % in euros, underperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by between 2.3 and 2.8 percentage points, depending on the currency.

There was no change in our country ratings last quarter. The Top Value Model Portfolio contains eleven markets — Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Russia, Taiwan and Turkey — at equal weights.

According to our analyses, an equally weighted combination of these most attractively valued markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The table below shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and to the MSCI World Index at the end of June 2017, based on selected assets and earnings valuation measures:

keppler

Based on our analyses, the asset class Emerging Markets Equities is now undervalued by 21 % compared with the MSCI World Index of the developed markets.  Furthermore, our Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is undervalued by 20 % versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and by 37 % versus the MSCI World Index.  The outlook for further outperformance of emerging market equities versus the developed markets in general and of the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio in particular, over the next three to five years, remains favorable.

Michael Keppler
New York, July 17, 2017

That review shows that emerging markets overall are a much better value than developed markets overall.  Here’s  a more important question.  How much better value are good value emerging markets versus good value developed markets?

Let’s compare.

Price to book for emerging markets is 1.37.  Develop good markets are selling at 1.47 price to book.   The good value emerging market PE ratio is 12.9 compared to 19 for developed markets and the dividend yield 3.35% compared to 3.31% for emerging markets.

keppler

These numbers suggest that both developed and emerging good value markets are much less expensive than the overall world index and way cheaper than the bloated US index.   At a price to book of 3.13, the US market is selling at more than double the price to book of both developed and emerging good value markets.

With this in mind, I have not changed my developed market to emerging market ratios.

Gary

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

Portfolio Changes: Some Countries are Trapped


Here is an excerpt from our latest “Purposeful Investing Course” update.   Some countries are trapped in a low income situation.

st louis fed mag

Cover page from St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic reports contains article “Trapped: Few Developing Countries Can Climb the Economic Ladder or Stay There”. (1)

I am adjusting my purposeful portfolio (called a Pifolio) in two ways.

I am increasing the weighting of three emerging markets:   China, Taiwan and South Korea and reducing the weighting of Brazil, Chile and Colombia.

14 markets are equally weighted.  11 are developed markets and three are emerging markets.

Australia
Austria
Canada
China
France
Germany
Hong Kong
Italy
Japan
Norway
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan
United Kingdom

This thinking is based on part due to comments from the St. Louis Fed article “Trapped” that says:  The low or middle-income trap phenomenon has been widely studied in recent years.  Although economic growth during the postwar period has lifted many low-income economies from poverty to a middle-income level and other economies to even higher levels of income, very few countries have been able to catch up with the high per capita income levels of the developed world and stay there.  As a result, relative to the U.S. (as a representative of the developed world), most developing countries have remained, or been “trapped,” at a constant low- or middle-income level.

Such a phenomenon raises concern about the validity of the neoclassical growth theory, which predicts global economic convergence.  Specifically, economics Nobel Prize winner Robert Solow suggested in 1956 that income levels in poor economies would grow relatively faster than income in developed nations and eventually converge with the latter through capital accumulation.  He argued that this would happen as technologies in developed nations spread to the poor countries through learning, international trade, foreign direct investment, student exchange programs and other channels.

Many poor countries today have a per capita income that is 30 to 50 times smaller than that of the U.S. and sometimes even lower (less than $1,000 per year in 2014).  For such countries to catch up to U.S. living standards, it may take at least 170 to 200 years, assuming that the former could maintain a growth rate that is constantly 2 percentage points over the U.S. rate (which is about 3 percent per year). This would be difficult, if not impossible. It is even harder to imagine that such countries could reach U.S. living standards within one to two generations (40 to 50 years), similar to how North American and Western European economies caught up to Britain during the 1800s after the Industrial Revolution. To achieve that speed of convergence today, the developing countries would need to grow about 8 percentage points faster than the U.S. (or about 11 percent per year) nonstop for 40 to 50 years.  In recent history, only China came close to this; it was able to maintain a 10 percent annual growth rate (7 percentage points above the U.S. rate) for 35 years, but per capita income in China was still only one-seventh of that in the U.S. in 2014.

Hence, the lack of income convergence and the relative income traps appear to be real problems.

The most common examples of rapid and persistent relative income growth (leading to convergence) are the Asian Tigers (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan); other countries include Spain and Ireland.

st louis fed mag

My thinking has been moving this way for some time and the article could be called a tipping point of socio-economic though.

I compare the convergence of emerging markets with developed markets something like the expansion of suburbs.   When cities became overcrowded, the expedient answer was moving the growing population onto farm land that was converted into burbs.  The process of slowly converting farms lasted for 50 or so years.  Finally the burbs stretched so far and wide, that the complications of moving from the burbs to the city outweighed the benefits.

Convergence of emerging markets worked when low cost labor was available and huge increases could be made by moving farmers onto factories.  Labor intensive production from developed countries leaped outwards to low cost emerging nations:   Japan first, Hong Kong second, and on and on.

The first waves of farmers moving from farm to factory brought big jumps in the GDP of emerging countries, but the second wave, where the farmers’ children moved into a more productive occupation was much harder to achieve.  Only the emerging countries that invested heavily in education and technology were able to continue to converge.  Today we see computers from Taiwan and cars from South Korea and cell phones from China.  Colombia, Brazil and Chile have not advanced  their technological positions in the global economy in the same way.

Based on this thinking and several economic conditions, such as low oil prices, I am reducing my relative positions in Brazil, Chile and Colombia and increasing positions in China, Taiwan and South Korea.

Gary

(1) https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/october-2015/trapped-few-developing-countries-can-climb-the-economic-ladder-or-stay-there

Learn how to use good value investing to protect your savings and investments as you increase the odds of profit.

Gain From Election Volatility

Here we are again… another election on its way… all the robo calls from politicians… the dirty tricks and the innumerable amounts of nonsense this vital process brings.

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the election process.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   A market correction is due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics has created an uncertain era.  Everyone has been shaken over the past three years whether they are pleased with the government or not.

Nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third if we see rising interest rates, this will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the strong US dollar and undervalue non dollar stock markets to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies are the best way to profit long term, through good politics and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.

However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 plus years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

finance.yahoo.com chart SLV

iShares Silver Trust (symbol SLV) from www.finance.yahoo.com

Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2019 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2109”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2019” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2019” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2109” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

Another Stock Market Trigger Emerges


What stock market triggers might emerge to kick off a negative spiral.  Stock markets ultimately rise and fall based on economic fundamentals.  Share prices and value fluctuate short term based on emotions.   When markets are over bought or over sold any trigger can cause a massive positive or negative shift.   A trifecta of events in the mideast could be such a trigger.

yemen

Two ancient choke points for the global economies of times past.

yemen

These choke points remain in the modern global economy.

The US stock market is very high.  History suggests that its time for a serious pull back before the next 17 year bull market begins.  How do we survive the correction so our savings are intact and can really grow in the next bull?

We’ll look at why the value in emerging stock markets offers extra opportunity in a moment.  First, let’s look at a trifecta of oil related concerns that could cause a stock sell off.  The first concern is lower oil prices.  The drop in oil and gas triggered further strength in the Western economy and a rise in the US equity market, but this drop adds unrest in the Middle East where there are numerous triggers that could signal a downwards spiral of US share prices.

The second concern is the change of power in Saudi Arabia. King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Saudi Arabia’s new ruler, has said he will keep Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi and continue the policy of maintaining crude output.  If this is so and the flow of oil remains unrestricted, this will help keep oil prices down.  Saudi Arabia needs oil in the $90 range to balance its budget. Current prices below $50 per barrel range have been squeezing the Saudi budget and creating tension with some members of the royal family.  King Salman is already 79 years old, and the next in line, Crown Prince Muqrin, is 69 and it’s very unclear how further succession might unfold.   This transition could pressure the price of oil.

The third part of the trifecta concern the events in Yemen which could affect oil prices even more.  Yemen is an oil producing country and its strategic position on the Bab al-Mandab strait are a cause of concern.  “Bab al-Mandab” means “Gateway of Anguish”, or “Gateway of Tears”.  These names come from ancient navigation dangers but could cause tears in the global economy now.  The strait is a strategic link between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.  Millions of gallons of crude oil pass through the strait every day.

An October 23, 2014 Financial Times article “Houthi expansion threatens Yemen’s strategic Bab-al-Mandab Strait” (1) by Peter Salisbury said:  “Houthi militants are expanding their presence into western Yemen around a vital maritime corridor that controls access to the Red Sea, a potential threat for some of the 8 per cent of global trade that runs through the Suez Canal.

The Bab al-Mandab strait separates the Arabian Peninsula from east Africa and links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.  Most ships using the waterway have come from, or are going to, Egypt’s Suez Canal, which connects the Red Sea with the Mediterranean and which contributes about $5bn a year to the Egyptian economy.

About 4 per cent of the global oil supply, much of it from Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states, passes through the strait, which is 29km wide at its narrowest point.

Developments on the strait are also unnerving Saudi Arabia. Riyadh believes the Houthis are backed by Iran, and worries that its regional rival could be using its influence to disrupt Red Sea trade.  Tehran has threatened in the past to block the Straits of Hormuz, the region’s other chokepoint, through which a fifth of global oil supply passes on a daily basis.”

Yemen’s unity, law and order have been enormously stressed.  Four percent of global oil passes through the Mandab Strait.  20 percent through the Straits of Hormuz.  Iran has a growing influence over both of these choke points.  If these reports are correct, then we should watch events as they unfold in this area closely.

Should the unrest in this area restrict this amount of oil, the price of oil could skyrocket enough for investors may panic to trigger a wave of of pre-programmed algorithmic trading instructions in automated computer programs.   This could cause a sharp, sudden correction and a strong downward spiral of stock prices.

Will these triggers be pulled?  Your guess is as good as mine or anyone’s.  There is always something that we do not know, especially in Yemen now.  Ali Soufan, president of the Soufan Group, an international security firm was for years one of the FBI’s chief experts on al-Qaeda and two of its traditional power bases, Yemen and Saudi Arabia.  He was interviewed about the Yemen situation in a news.yahoo.com news article (2) and said: “It is a total mess. Anybody who can tell you they know what’s happening in Yemen and what’s going to happen in Yemen, I know one thing: They don’t know Yemen.”

Investing in situations like this calls for special attention to value. This is why we carefully follow the value analysis of Keppler Asset Management.  Here are excerpts from Michael Keppler’s quarterly good value update of global emerging equity markets.   Borrow Low-Deposit High subscribers, you can read the entire 50 page January 2105 Keppler Asset Management Emerging Market Good Value Analysis click here.

Learn how to get a multi currency update password

Recent Developments & Outlook

Emerging Markets closed out the year 2014 on a weak note. Last quarter, the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return (TR) Index (December 1988 = 100) was flat in local currencies, but due to weak local currencies it declined 4.5 % in US dollars and 0.3 % in Euros.

In 2014, the MSCI Emerging Markets TR Index was up 5.2 % and 11.4 % in Euros.  However, again due to weak local currencies and a strong US dollar, it declined 2.2 % in US dollars.

The Euro continued its recent downtrend, giving up 4.2 % versus the US dollar last quarter and now stands at 1.2101 USD/EUR, down 12.2 % in 2014. This trend of a higher US dollar and lower local currencies has continued into January 2015.

Among the three regional indices, Asia gained 2.1 % in the last quarter, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) declined 0.9 %, and Latin America lost 6.1 %.  In 2014, Asia (+7.7 %) and EMEA (+2.8 %) were up, while Latin America declined 0.9 %. Performance is in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

Seven markets advanced in the fourth quarter and sixteen markets declined.  The best performing markets were Turkey (+14.4 %), China (+7.0 %) and Taiwan (+5.6 %).  Greece (-25.6 %), the United Arab Emirates (-21.6 %) and the Czech Republic (-11.2 %) performed worst last quarter.

In 2014, sixteen markets advanced and seven markets declined.  Egypt (+33.1 %), Turkey (+29.2 %) and Indonesia (+28.8 %) performed best, while Greece (-31.6 %), Russia (-12.8 %) and Hungary (-12.2 %) came in last.

There were no changes in our country ratings last quarter.  The Top Value Model Portfolio contains twelve markets — Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Russia, Taiwan and Thailand — at equal weights.  According to our analyses, an equally-weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The table below shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and to the MSCI Developed Markets Index at the end of 2014, based on selected assets and earnings valuation measures:

keppler 2015

Click on image to enlarge.

Based on our valuation and return analyses, the asset class “Emerging Markets Equities” is now undervalued by 26 % versus the MSCI World Index.  Furthermore, our Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is now undervalued by 14 % versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and by 37 % compared to the MSCI World Index of the developed markets.  This bodes well with regard to potential out performance over the next three to five years for the emerging markets in general and for the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio in particular.

Michael Keppler New York, January 16, 2015

Emerging markets have an extra layer of safety due the undervaluation versus world markets.   Click on the chart below to see an even greater undervaluation (over 40%) of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index versus the MSCI US Index.

Screen shot 2015-01-18 at 4.55.43 PM

The Good Value Emerging Markets have an undervaluation in the 50% range.  An easy way to diversify into good value emerging markets is with the iShares ETFs shown below.

Gary

Gain From Election Volatility

Here we are again… another election on its way… all the robo calls from politicians… the dirty tricks and the innumerable amounts of nonsense this vital process brings.

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the election process.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   A market correction is due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics has created an uncertain era.  Everyone has been shaken over the past three years whether they are pleased with the government or not.

Nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third if we see rising interest rates, this will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the strong US dollar and undervalue non dollar stock markets to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies are the best way to profit long term, through good politics and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.

However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 plus years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

finance.yahoo.com chart SLV

iShares Silver Trust (symbol SLV) from www.finance.yahoo.com

Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2019 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2109”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2019” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2019” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2109” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

(1) Financial Times Houthi expansion threatens Yemen’s strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait

(2) News.yahoo.com  Yemen Chaos is a boon to al-qaeda expert and former FBI agent

Low Interest Rate Values Emerge


New investing values are emerging.  Low interest rates and overbought developed stock markets are creating new value in emerging markets and junk bonds.

WSJ image

Click on images to enlarge.

This photo shows that the new 10 year Ecuador bonds with a B rating started with a 7.95% yield.

A recent Wall Street Journal article entitled “Ecuador, Kenya Government Bonds Entice Yield Hunters” by Josie Cox and Daniel Huang (1) tells how bonds issued by these pioneer markets on the equator were oversubscribed and attracted $8 Billion in bids.

Here is an excerpt:  In the race for bigger returns, investors are clamoring for debt issued by countries with less-than-stellar credit ratings.

Ecuador sold $2 billion worth of 10-year bonds Tuesday, marking a return to international capital markets after defaulting in 2008. That deal came on the heels of Kenya’s first-ever international-bond sale, which attracted $8 billion worth of orders for two chunks of bonds totaling $2 billion. The Kenya deal was the largest-ever debt sale by an African country.

These two deals, which carry junk ratings, are the latest in a string of bond sales by countries off the beaten track. Many investors now are embracing issuers—and the hefty interest payments on their bonds—that have been shut out of global credit markets until lately. Driving the demand for this debt are the easy-money policies of the world’s major central banks, which has depressed yields on debt of wealthy nations.

Many money managers consider Ecuador and Kenya to be “frontier” markets, a loosely defined term used to refer to countries that are a step below emerging markets but often have better growth prospects.

Do we really want to invest in governments like Ecuador, Kenya, Pakistan, or Sri Lanka or Rawanda for just a bit more return?

Always look at the risk reward potential.  Equity and currency markets usually offer greater reward than bonds.  Bonds are normally safer, except junk bonds.  Junk bonds possess greater than normal risk of default and do not gain that much extra reward.

Once a quarter, we review all emerging multi currency equity markets through the Keppler Asset Management’s Global Market Value Analysis.

This analysis is especially important now because low interest and overvalued major markets are driving investors into riskier deals such as Ecuadorian, Kenyan and Rawandan bonds.

If you are a new reader learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Here is Keppler’s Summer 2014 Emerging market Value Recent Developments & Outlook.

Emerging Markets equities advanced strongly in the second quarter 2014.  The MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return (TR) Index (December 1988 = 100) gained 5.1 % in local currencies, 6.6 % in US dollars and 7.3 % in Euros, wiping out the small losses from the first quarter of this year.

In the first half 2014, the MSCI Emerging Markets TR Index was up 4.6 %, 6.1 % and 6.8 % in local currencies, US dollars and Euros, respectively.

The Euro finished the second quarter at 1.3692 USD/EUR — down 0.6 % from its year-end 2013 level of 1.3780.  Given the fact that the Equally-Weighted Emerging Markets Index is up 5.7 % in local currencies and 7.2 % in Euros, the average emerging markets currency improved about 1.5 percentage points over the Euro last quarter.  After having been more or less unchanged in the first quarter 2014, the recent strength of the emerging markets currencies indicates a reversal from 2013, when the average emerging markets’ currency declined 10.3 percentage points versus the Euro.

Among the three regional indices, Asia is up 5.5 % in the second quarter, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) advanced 4.2 % and Latin America gained 5.0 %.

In the first half, Asia gained 5.1 %, EMEA gained 4.4 % and Latin America is up 3.2 %.

Performance numbers are in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

Nineteen markets advanced and four markets declined over the last quarter.

Turkey (+14.1 %), India (+13.5 %) and Peru (+8.5 %) performed best, while last quarter’s best performer Greece came in last in the second quarter with a loss of 10.2 %.  The other two worst performing countries last quarter were the newcomers in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, the United Arab Emirates (-5.5 %) and Qatar (-5.4 %), which were added to the emerging markets benchmark on June 2nd.

Year-to-date, Turkey is leading with a 19 % gain, followed by India and Indonesia (both up 18.5 %).

Russia (-2.5 %), China (-0.7 %) and Korea (-0.2 %) came in last year-to-date.

There was no change in our country ratings last quarter. The Top Value Model Portfolio contains nine markets — Brazil, China, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Russia and Taiwan — at equal weights.

According to our analyses, an equally-weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.

The table below shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and to the MSCI Developed Markets Index at the end of the second quarter 2014, based on selected assets and earnings valuation measures:

Based on our valuation and return analyses, the asset class of emerging markets equities is now undervalued by 24 % versus the MSCI World Index.  More extreme, our Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is now undervalued by 20% versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and by 39 % compared to the MSCI World Index of the developed markets. This bodes well with regard to potential outperformance over the next three to five years for the emerging markets in general and for our Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio in particular.

Michael Keppler New York, July 15, 2014

As last quarter, Keppler is showing that emerging markets are set to outperform major markets.   However this does not mean we need to invest in junk to get good returns.

Take for example Malaysian bonds compared to Ecuador or Kenyan bonds.

ENR Asset Management is my investment adviser and their July 2104 Advisory Extra Report has a buy recommendation on the Malaysia 3.26% 01/03/18 (Symbol MYBMI1)  selling at 98.90 and providing a yield of  3.59%.

So why invest in Malaysian bond sand earn 3.59% when I can invest in Ecuador or Kenyan binds and earn 7.95%?

First, consider risk.  For S& P and Fitch, a bond is considered investment grade if its credit rating is BBB- or higher. Bonds rated BB+ and below are considered to be speculative grade, sometimes also referred to as “junk” bonds.   This means that Ecuador and Kenya are both well and truly junk bonds.  Ecuador especially has the stigma because just a few years ago they defaulted on over $3 billion worth of bonds.

Malaysia has an A rating so it is well and truly established as an investment grade bonds far above a junk ranking.

In other words, a Malaysian bond is an investment. Ecuador and Kenyan bonds are speculations.

Is the 4.36% extra yield worth the extra risk?

Next, consider the currency of the bond.  The Ecuador and Kenyan bonds are denominated in dollars. The Malaysian bond is denominated in Malaysian Ringitt.

www.finance.yahoo image

This www.fiance.yahoo.com chart (2)  shows that over the past five years the Malaysian Ringitt has appreciated 8.68% against the US dollar but after 2009 when the global recession sent the greenback on a bull rampage the Ringitt has lost almost all this gain.

ENR says: USD bull markets have been rare since 1971 when Nixon broke the gold window; the first major rally occurred in Reagan’s first term and then again in Clinton’s second term. Both periods witnessed very strong gains for the dollar against all crosses (see chart below). But they equally followed big bear markets and ultimately, new lows for the American currency. Typically, dollar strength lasts several years or more and ultimately, eventually breaks to new lows.

ENR Image

Chart from ENR

We recommend long-term investors use current dollar strength to accumulate foreign currencies and gold. However, once again we remind investors that we do expect the USD to rise for the remainder of the year. This will put pressure on those currencies that are not tightening or expected to tighten monetary policy.

Learn more about how to get the ENR Advisory Extra Reports at  ENR Asset Management

or contact Thomas Fischer at Thomas@enrasset.com

Now calculate this.   Assume over the next year that the Ringitt regains the 8% it lost during this US dollar bull.

An Ecuador bond of $100,000 pays 7,900 interest, so a year from now its value is $107,900.  The Malaysian Ringitt bond pays $3,590 and if that $103,590 appreciates 8% it is worth $111,868.

Compare the two choices.  A much safer A ranked bond that earns less income but has a currency speculative value or a junk bond that earns more income but has no currency speculative power.

Low interest rates around the world have caused many investors to increase risk.   If you plan on taking risk, look beyond bonds at currencies and equities because they offer the greatest upwards potential.

Gary

Learn about Ecuador and global earning

Global Earnings Seminar

How to Have Peace & Profit

There are still ways to reduce stress.

Prolonged exposure to stress is the # 1 root of death and disease in our modern world.

Stress can ruin your health and wealth… in many ways.

Daily stress has been magnified because we no control, no way out of the current global political and economic mess.  The news makes current problems feel like things are getting worse.

This downwards spiral leads to health problems, heart disease, hypertension, impaired immune function, infertility, and mental illness.

The health problems lead to economic problems from loss of income, poor investment decisions and high disease management costs.

farm

farm

Yet there is a way back.

I was reminded of this once when I made a horrible mistake.

The supposed error?  Letting my mind wander six decades back to an hour I spent with a girl.

Learn from this near disaster, seven most powerful sources of wealth, health, security and fulfillment in this era.

The girl was pretty and blond.  Terry was her name. My imagination spanned decades returning to my Oregon roots seeing her as if she were there.

We were 11 or 12 and had known each other since we started Rockwood grade school.  Just buddies, our non-romantic friendship lasted 12 years, from first grade till high school’s end.  Then she went off to Pepperdine College in California.  I started traveling the world.  Never saw her again.  I hope her life has gone well.  But until that reflection I’d never thought much of Terry in so many years.

What could have been the tragic error was letting that memory touch my heart.  Two kids, walking on a crisp, Pacific Northwest autumnal afternoon.

We walked down a sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt path.  Huge, fat, green Douglas firs lined the road.  Traffic was no problem, not many cars.  Crossing Stark Street we turned left, hiking three blocks to 182nd.  There we passed an old clapboard candy store.  I can still hear the wooden sidewalk of that store slap beneath my feet, felt the soggy planks sag and smelled astringent pitch from the fir trees.  Then we turned right, up 182nd for about a mile.  There was Terry’s house.

I carried on, walking through a big field, waist high grass turned straw brown by an early frost.  There were dozens of paths made by who knows what.  Animals perhaps or countless generations of other kids walking home alone from school.  I chose one following it to another wood of tall, rough-barked fir.  Crossing one more field, I climbed a rock wall, struggled through a barbed wire fence (my Mom hated that fence ripping my jeans).  I was home!

Sweet simplicity, that dream.  Two kids holding hands, walking on a dirt trail under a crisp, but blue, sunny sky.  Pure innocence.

My tragic error was looking back.  I returned to Rockwood, Oregon with Merri and my kids to show them this part of their roots.  Following the route, Terry and I had walked were the candy store, grange hall, old wooden buildings and their home spun honesty and charm.

Instead we found six lanes of fast, frantic traffic and road rage.  McDonalds, KFC, strip shopping centers.  The car radio blared warnings of local gangs and drive-by-shootings.

Beauty, innocence, sweet simplicity, replaced by drive ins and drive bys.  Gangs and drive-by shootings replacing a tender walk in the sun.

Good bye memories, good bye.

How can our kids walk in places like this?  How can we return to those old feeling of security and comfort?

How can any of us possibly keep pace in this world that’s moving so fast?

Then something inside snapped.

“There has to be an answer for honest, hard working folks to enjoy the wonderful opportunities of today and regain what we’ve lost over the past forty years”, I swore to myself.

How can we keep up, without having such a fast paced life we turn into machines?  Where do we find time for God, family, charity, and our friends?  How can we rediscover those sun filled, pine needle covered, dirt paths we want to walk?

“There has to be places that are still innocent and pure”, I thought.  “There has to be a way of life that does not pound us with stress”.

This thinking led me to begin reviewing the thousands of economic and business experiences I have shared with readers over the decades.

This started a search for a simpler way of life and a better place to earn and protect our wealth.

By digging, asking and observing, traveling and talking to investors and investment managers all over the world I found that there are true paths to real security in the here and now.  That knowledge helped me develop courses on how to have natural health, everlasting wealth and purposeful investments.

This knowledge helped Merri and me invest in stocks and real estate all over the world.  It helped us find and develop our farms in North Carolina and Florida into sanctuaries.

That almost error led us to create an entire portfolio of information on how to keep pace, get ahead, enjoy our modern society but, to enjoy life wherever you choose without having to move too fast.

This is why I am making a special “Let’s get our lives back” offer.

“What would you think in the last 30 seconds of your life if you were the richest man in the world but were unhappy?”

This quote is from the opening slide of our Value Investing Seminar, “How to Secure Your Future With a Value Breakout Plan”.   This a vital question because few investors think about the value of comfort and happiness.  Yet the truth is, those who are comfortable and happy with their investments are most likely to succeed financially.

Without comfort, no matter how much money a person has, they are more likely to lose it or kill themselves with stress from worry.

There is a way to have the perfect form of financial security.

Let’s call it the perfect pension.  To help understand how to build an unshakable economic platform, here is Part One of the report, The Pruppie Factor.

The Pruppie Factor – Seven Steps to Comfortable Living & Profits.

“May you live in interesting times”.  That’s a Chinese curse that seems to have been cast on our modern world.  We can enjoy comfort and profits in the year ahead despite this fact.

Become a Pruppie.  Integrate your earning with your investing and enjoy peak living, everlasting wealth and natural health with PIEC Investing in the year ahead.

Before we look at what PIEC means, let’s delve into Pruppieism, the new economic and social realism.  Pruppies expect everything to expand.  They take advantage of every new benefit and technology they can.  Pruppies enjoy using the fruits of our ancestor’s deliberations and labors to earn in this advanced technological world.  They also engage in activity that they love that would sustain them in case society and the incredibly intricate weave of our global economy and society should fail.

Pruppies are prepared in case everything, everywhere, or at least everything relating to their income and savings fails and the fabric that surrounds their lives disintegrates into an unknown veil.  Yet a Pruppie’s preparation is not a sacrifice, but a joy as you will see.

Hope springs eternal and it should.  One of the key themes in my first book, Passport to International Profit, (published in the 1970s) was “The Sun Always Shines Somewhere”.  This thought has been in and remains a foundation of everything I do.

Sometimes this sunshine is hard to see because the press always focuses on doom and gloom.  Current news often makes the world seem about to end.  We cannot blame the press. Bad news sells.  The majority seem to want to worry instead of learn about all that’s good.  This does not make doom and gloom right.  This is why the majority are also the rich portion of the population, but bad news is an economic fact for the press.

Yet despite all the negative headlines, we have lived through the Cold War and MAD, Y2K, GridX II, the Peak Oil Crisis, the recession of the 1970s, 1980s 2007, etc. etc. etc.  Chicken Little is always out there, selling the falling sky.  Don’t buy into this story!

History suggests that there will always be opportunity.  The sun always shines somewhere.

Brexit, global warming and the American political process are examples of how the press gravitates to negative news.   The press  make anything and just about everything seem negative.  This can blind us to the positive realities ahead, if we let it.

Don’t.

Expect that the world will remain standing and look for opportunity instead!

Our wealth and economic opportunity is pushed by supply and demand.  We are part of a growing global population.  New technology makes more people, as a whole, more productive every day.  The world has increasingly larger markets creating more supply in increasingly efficient ways.

This reality increases everyone’s wealth.  Yes there is a lot of bad news in many places.  There is inequality.  There is crime.  There is war and hate and injustice.   Despite these negatives there is even more that is positive.  Opportunity grows.

Pruppies tap into and use every bit of the good news they can.  They have a plan B if everything goes wrong, but Plan B is based on something a Pruppie wants to do we love, not just a shelter from bad news.

At the end of this report, you’ll find a special offer that can help you integrate earning and investing for the ultimate form of profit and safety.

Imagine this example of Pruppism.  The Tiffany lamp casts an amber glow, rich, ivory and warm in the grey gloom of early dusk.  The gold knobbed mahogany desk, its deep patina waxed and smooth, shines with reflections of ancient leather Chesterfields stuffed full, but rumpled with age and of maritime shots that hang in brass frames on the wall. The room speaks of settled tradition, the kind that might never end.  But thoughts instead are on the demise of the business that has supported this room.

The late Jim Slater of Slater Walker, a British industrial conglomerate turned bank in the 1970s was in that room.  I recall his bank’s collapse well as I was living in Hong Kong and Slater Walker was a huge going concern in what was a British colony in those days.  The Slater Walker crash was big news that unsettled the entire British banking system at the time.

Slater, the founder, had been a really high roller, using every modern banking tactic available including buying many assets with cheap loans.  Then in the mid 1970s banking crisis interest rates skyrocketed and his bank was unable to refinance its debt.  The company failed and Slater had to resign.  Numerous charges were brought against him and he spent considerable time defending what he had done.

In the end he was only fined a nominal sum but despite this, his banking career was well and truly dead.

However he had already moved on.

He wrote about this in his autobiography, “Return To Go”.  He had always had a hobby making puppet shows and telling stories to his children, so instead of banking, he turned his passion into profit and wrote some children’s books.  His first effort sold a respectable 35,000 copies.  His next a monster series for younger children, became a huge hit.

He had also maintained a hobby of salmon fishing so again turned his passion into profit by creating a business that bought up fishing rights and resold them as time-shares.  He had quite a success.

Some day a catastrophe beyond our control could redirect the course of our lives.  We might lose a job, learn that our pension won’t pay or that our dollars won’t buy as much as they must.

Though Jim Slater was a banker, outside economic forces beyond his control caused his business disaster.  Yet he had options because he had been doing things he loved that were not related to his banking, but could become useful income generators in difficult time.

I do not know if Slater understood Pruppism but that’s what he was practicing.

Pruppism is a positive realism based on the knowledge that much of our lives are directed by events that we do not know or expect and could not change them even if we did.  There is always something we do not know and that’s okay.

Years ago I was speaking at an investing seminar in Marbella Spain.  One of the speakers was a brilliant strategist, Johan Peter Paludan, of the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.  This institute has a large interdisciplinary staff with expertise in economics, political science, ethnography, psychology, engineering, PR and sociology.  They identify and analyze global trends that influence the future.  Paludan was speaking of these trends and answering questions that delegates had about the world’s economic future.

One delegate asked what to do if there was a global nuclear exchange.  Paludan replied that the results of some events are so unpredictable that it is not worth trying to plan for them.

This thought has stuck with me for decades because it helped me realize that no matter how cautious, how defensive and careful we are, there are events that we cannot even imagine that can turn our lives upside down, for the good or bad.  With this in mind my wife Merri and I have created a lifestyle where we turn our passions into profit but in a way that whatever happens we are likely to be in a position to spot the positive and the opportunity.

A PIEC Experience

Pruppies gain the benefits of PIEC wealth.  PIEC is an acronym for “Personal Income Earning Corridor”.  PIEC income and wealth come from doing what you do for love, rather than just the money.

Traditionally people get jobs to create income.  They work to live and support their lifestyle while attempting to spend less than they earn.  They hope, that maybe the savings will bring, sometime in the future, a lifestyle of doing something enjoyable without work.

Pruppies reverse the priorities.  Instead of working for money to save and invest, they focus their prime effort on doing something they enjoy right now.  Then they learn how to enjoy the effort in some profitable way.  They learn to create “Avenues of Abundance” that combine lifestyle with the necessary task of accumulating wealth.

If economic circumstances tie them to an existing income effort, they create hobbies that are income producers of the future.

For example, if a Pruppie loves golf; instead of working six days a week, 50 weeks a year just to golf on Sundays and during short vacations, instead he or she will create a business in some aspect of the golfing trade.

In another example, a client of mine, who loved animals became a vet.  But he learned that the vet’s lifestyle was not one he enjoyed.  He wanted to travel and move around, which is difficult for a professional who needs to stay at his office and build a practice.  So he built a business that prepares special animal foods for race horses.  Now he travels globally visiting horse breeders and makes much more money as well.

Pruppies combine money with time, energy and desires.  They generate income doing something desired.  Desire and fulfillment become at least as, if not more, important as the money.

#1: Do What You Love!

The reason PIECs work well is that when we love to do something, we do it better, for longer and with greater enthusiasm.

Effort, determination and tenacity are wealth building attributes that cannot fail.  Yet Pruppism does not mean we should suddenly abandon our jobs and try becoming golf pros, when we have never been able to break 100.  Smart Pruppies start small and gradually expand into their passion.

For example, as a writer and lecturer, I was never fully satisfied sitting behind a desk or standing on a podium all day long, even though I was making over a million bucks a year. I’m the physical, outdoors type and yearned for exercise and the wilds of the deep woods. “What good’s the money if this isn’t fun?” I often asked myself.

Rather than quit writing and teaching, I looked for ways to combine these professions with the outdoor life.  Through research I learned that many city folk like myself yearn to be in the primitive outdoors.  So I bought an isolated farm high in the Blue Ridge Mountains and an Andean plantation high in Ecuador where I developed seminar centers with charming but simple dwellings, set in rustic surroundings, with clean water and pure air.  Now I live in nature so after I finish the writing or talking, I can walk in the woods or take my axe and chop firewood or something physical.  I’ve combined my writing with physical work and have blended the life I want, with my readers’ needs in a way that makes great financial sense.

We built a series of cabins in the wild that bring more profits than most stocks or bonds could ever return.

The process took six years to shift. Now we have been at this for nearly two decades and we are far from finished.  But while doing what we love, who cares? This is one of the great benefits of PIEC investing. We can slow down and enjoy the work instead of always rushing ahead, looking for something more.

Those who work nine to five can start PIEC businesses part time if they are too uneasy to quit their jobs. Others, who like myself, already have a business can slowly shift their product or service in a sensible way and let it evolve toward their PIEC.

But where do we start?

There is a seven step process we can all use whether we have our own careers, a business or even if we are retired (PIEC investing is especially good for retired folks who have found the supposed good life flat or financially short).

The first step is to get a clear idea or vision of our dream.  This is sometimes harder to achieve than it seems.  We are so deluged with false ideals from Washington, Wall Street, Madison Avenue, etc. that we have to stop and really take stock.  What do we sincerely want?

There is a very practical economic reason to look inwards for wealth.  Warren Buffet recommends that we only invest in what we understand. What can we understand better than ourselves?

This inner search will lead us to an ideal that begins the second step which is gaining enthusiasm.  How can we be anything but enthusiastic about finally fulfilling our deepest dreams?  The enthusiasm leads to the third step; gaining an education.

We need to find out everything we can about our idea.  To succeed we must take the third step and become real experts in the product or service we offer.

Fourth, this educational process allows us to develop an intelligent, focused business plan we can act upon and the action is the fifth step which brings us the experience. Experience gives us the sixth step, a financial loss or profit.  We always profit in increased knowledge which creates the seventh step, more ideas.

Then the entire cycle starts all over again: Idea, Enthusiasm, Education, Action, Experience, Financial Profit and New Ideas.

This is a way to keep adding new opportunities into our lives.  Business is rarely static. It is an ever evolving process instead.

This seven step cycle may take days, weeks, months or years, but the moment you begin you’ll start moving into an avenue of affluence where you love your work so though money isn’t your main goal it comes more easily.

#2: Do what you love, but also be of service.  Do something for others that is meaningful and important to you.

We all have a purpose in life and when we are filling it, we feel fulfilled.  Wealth and fulfillment is the goal.  Fulfillment is important because of the law of diminishing returns.  A 2008 study that analyzed Gallup surveys of 450,000 Americans suggested that day-to-day contentment improves until income hits around $75,000 per annum.  After that, more money just brings more stuff, with far less gain in happiness.  Income beyond $75,000 does not do much for a person’s daily mood.

This is a pretty general study and regional differences in costs, inflation and life circumstances will create many fluctuations from this norm, but the point is when money is the main goal, the better you get, the harder it will be to gain satisfaction.

Giving, on the other hand, never has limitations, especially when the giving helps complete a purpose that is part of our destiny.

This is true in business and investing.  A study of investors for example found that investors with socially responsible ideals gained the best returns.  A dual goal of profit and achieving some social benefit provides a purpose beyond returns.  This brings comfort and determination to the investments and the added stick-to-it-ness helps increase profits.

The study helped define three aspects of investing that are generally ignored, purpose and habits.

Purpose.  Purpose requires some soul-searching questions about what we each want our life to be.  This purpose is more important than the investment goal.  The purpose of the money we have becomes more important than the amount in the portfolio.

Habits.  Habits come next because we need to create habits and routines that keep us on the path of our unique purpose.  The marketplace does all it can to distract us from our goals.  There is an endless stream of news, rumor, conjecture, facts figures, ideas and tactics generated by every part of every stock market aimed at getting us to act in ways that benefit the agenda of others.

Good habits help us avoid being distracted from what we are meant and want to do.  Good habits muffle the noise of Madison Avenue, the spin from Washington DC and the hidden agendas of big business.  These are among the most powerful ways to increase wealth.  Having greater fulfillment as well as more wealth is a bonus that Pruppies call “Everlasting Wealth”.

#3: Integrate your earning and investing. 

Long term success in business and investing are determined by control and comfort.

Comfort comes from feeling in control, but since there is always something we do not know, real comfort comes from knowing that we are serving a valuable purpose, the best we can, regardless of how events unfold.

Real comfort helps maintain determination, dedication and enthusiasm, all among the most vital parts in the process of succeeding in investing and business.

Our own business increases comfort because a business is simply an investment that gives us more control due to the addition of our own time and energy. 

A Personal Income Earning Corridor (PIEC) begin with a main income generator that we control.  For some this is a job with a salary.  For others it is a pension. For many it is their own business using the concepts of SNAP (Small Niche Area Publishing).

Here’s why self publishing offers such great potential.

Sam Walton… or is it Warren Buffet?  Self publishing is based on three cherished beliefs that two of the wealthiest people in the world, Sam Walton and Warren Buffet, shared.

Buffet and Walton shared several cherished business beliefs that you can gain from a special writing and publishing business that is at its very beginning stage.

Cherished Belief #1:  Small is Beautiful.  Both Sam Walton (Bentonville, Arkansas) and Warren Buffet (Omaha, Nebraska) chose America’s heartland away from the big cities as their homes.  What’s more, Walton chose to do business in these small places as well… building the largest retail operation in the world almost entirely in small towns.

Warren Buffet believes that potential in small towns offers special value.  He believes this so strongly that he has been buying newspapers in small towns.

Over the last few years Berkshire Hathaway purchased 63 small and mid-sized daily and weekly newspapers throughout the United States.

He plans to buy more and says: “I like buying individual papers at the right prices.” 

Buffet stated that Berkshire is not buying big newspapers or more newspaper shares. He is sticking with small publications because he believes in the value of local communities.

Cherished Belief #2:  Community Orientation.

Buffet is not buying big publications but is grabbing up small community focused publications.

His bet is that publications focused on local communities can withstand the shift of readers and advertisers to the Internet.

The individual papers can be really small as 10,000 circulation with tiny staffs.

He said no one has stopped reading “half-way through a story that was about them or their neighbors.”

He also noted, “Berkshire buys for keeps. I’d rather buy newspapers myself directly,” and is seeking papers that publish in cities and towns with a “Sense of  Community.”

From this vision WalMart remains committed not just to expanding the businesses but to improving the communities.

You can enjoy all these benefits through Self publishingbecause small communities can be places, ideas or ideas within places.

The factors that makes publications like this successful are its common interests.  Common interest can be focused on a geographical area or a niche idea that targets a niche of a larger market.  For example, the market for truckers is quite large, but trackers that look after their health is a much smaller niche.  One benefit of SNAP publishing is it surrounds you with people who have a common interest, so your readers are like-minded souls.

Cherished Belief #3:  Seek Good Value.

Sam Walton built one of the largest fortunes in the world… with the simple goals of providing great value and great customer service.  Warren Buffett’s belief is that the essence of value investing is buying stocks at less than their intrinsic value.  The discount is called the “Margin of Safety”.

Both Buffet and Walton shared a vision that small towns ignored by the mainstream offered good value.  You can tap into extra profit potential as a SNAP publisher who helps a small community.

Knowing BOTH successful niche magazine publishers and internet marketing geniuses is important for a reason that Buffet outlined to his publishers when he purchased their papers.  Buffet believes that small newspapers will change and that they serve an important purpose.  He said, “Papers must rethink the industry’s initial response to the Internet as focus on continuing to maintain a strong sense of community“.

His bet is that publications focused on local communities can withstand the shift of readers and advertisers to the Internet.  Buffet has said that giving news away free online is “unsustainable” and has sought papers that publish in cities and towns with a “sense of community.

We have never seen this need for a sense of community as we do know because community creates trust.  As the world has expanded on big is better, the public has lost trust.  We no longer trust big business, big government, big hospitals, big banks, etc.  Yet publications offer nothing if they do not have the reader’s trust.  Internet publishing on the big scale has reduced trust.  Anyone can say anything on the internet and thus internet information is highly suspect.  Publishers who use a small niche to create trust have an advantage.

To begin this introduction let me add one more point and outline the value of what I am about to offer.  A SNAP publication may eventually require $5,000, $10,000 or even $15,000 in start up costs but can make up to $11,835 a month… or more.  That’s value… plain and simple.

Join The International Club for all of 2018 NOW.  Learn how to wrote and publish.  Save $418.78.

Club members start by receiving seven workshops and courses on how to earn everywhere with home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • The course “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Self Publish”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”
  • The course “International Business Made EZ”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”

Club members also learn ways to be be healthier and have more energy.   I have created three natural health reports about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Recent news about Social Security, pensions and health care shows that the US government has excessive debt today and that we as individuals need tactics to make sure, when governments, pensions and insurers weasel out of their promises, that we can take care of ourselves.

One big broken promise is Social Security and Medicare.  The most recent Social Security trustee report shows that the programs will begin to spend more than they earn within just three or four years.   The Medicare hospital-insurance trust fund, could use all its reserves by 2028.  They face insolvency over the next 20 years because Social Security runs totally out of money by 2034.

My three natural health reports help learn ways to be happier, healthier and avoid much of the Western disease management (aka healthcare) expense.

Each report is available for $19.95.  However you’ll receive all three FREE as club member and save $59.85.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad. The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of numerous Model Portfolios, called Pifolio.

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

There are no secrets about this portfolio except that these mathematicians ignore the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $299.

There are two more reports I’ll send about the most exciting opportunities I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become an International Club member you’ll receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the past two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2019” updated in late 2018.   The report explained the exact conditions you need to make leveraged silver & gold speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The price of silver may offer special value later in 2019, but the price of platinum is special now.   So I want to send you the report “Platinum Dip 2019”.

Save $418.78… when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program including SNAP”.  Free.

#2: The $299 Purposeful investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”.  Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Silver Dip 2019”.  Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.   All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report.  Free.

#7: Plus updates and other report I release in the year ahead.

These reports, courses and programs would cost $767.78 so the 2018 membership saves $418.78.

The International Club membership is $499. 

To encourage our first 100 members for 2018 to join quickly so we are currently accepting discounted membership at $349. 

Save $418.78.  Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons through the rest of 2018 and all of 2019 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(1) Wall Street Journal article on junk bonds

(2) Current www.fiance.yahoo.com US dollar Malaysia Ringitt chart

Emerging Markets Oppenheimer


Consumers, (by the way, this does not have to be you and me) are losing ground.

montreal

Learn about emerging markets in Canada.

Why invest in emerging markets?

Inflation has been low.  At least this is what we are told.   Those who come up with these statistics must not have been shopping for basics.

Finally the stats are telling a different tale.

Consumer prices last month posted their sharpest increase in 15 months as inflation continued a recent acceleration from unusually low levels.  The consumer price index jumped 0.4% after rising 0.3% in April, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Economists had expected an 0.2% increase.

Over the past 12 months, prices have increased 2.1%.

The bigger problem is that essentials are hardest hit.   Food costs jumped 0.5%, the largest increase in three years.   Meat, poultry fish and eggs rose 1.4%.  Fruits and vegetables rose 1.1%.  These categories have been rising for months.

Energy costs also surged, with gasoline prices rising 0.7% and electricity costs increasing 2.3%.

Airline fares jumped a whopping 5.8%!   Medicine was more.  Prescription prices surged 0.7%.

At the same time the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  reported that the real average earnings seasonally adjusted for all employees fell 0.2 percent from April to May 2014.

Let’s sum this up.  Prices for basics are rising.  Real earnings are falling and banks won’t pay you much of anything on your savings.

This means that many people will be poorer.  We should not be surprised.  History is a never ending story of nations that rise and fall.  Nations, like everything  in the universe are ruled by the bell shaped curve.

This does not mean that everyone will be poorer.  We do not need to be.

One way to maintain purchasing power and prosper in this atmosphere is to take advantage of the bell shaped curve and invest where the economies are rising instead of falling.

royal bank of canada chart

Chart from Royal Bank of Canada website (1).

One way to add extra profits is with a diversification into emerging markets.

A Wall Street Journal article “In Emerging Markets, What Scares Most Investors Entices Oppenheimer” (2) by Landon Thomas Jr. tells why Justin M. Leverenz, who runs America’s largest emerging markets mutual fund at Oppenheimer Funds is convinced that countries such as China, Brazil, Russia and especially India have  economic and social change that won’t be reversed.

The fund he manages has used investments in internet stocks in China and Russia, to housing finance companies in India, to push up the price  by 27 percent in the last three years.

He avoids conventional market vogues and says in the article “This is where my nervousness helps me,” he said. “Just like at a party where you can make observations about people when you are not hanging out with them, you can do the same in the stock market. You can see patterns that are emerging and then you can pounce.”

yahoo chart

Major markets have risen as a whole over 56% in the past five years. (3)   (Click on images to enlarge)

yahoo chart

Emerging markets as a whole are up barely half as much, 34% in the past five years. (4)

The emergence of emerging markets is a fact.  The world has changed and the biggest economic growth is in emerging markets.  Yet since the last recession, emerging markets have not recovered as fast as major markets.   They will catch up.  This creates value and an opportunity to enhance purchasing power so we do not losing ground now.

Gary

Value Investing Webinar

Old Accord Creates New Profits – Multi Currency Investments.

Earn more with multi currency stock market breakouts.

Improve Safety – Increase Profits

Learn how to improve the safety of your savings and investments by selecting good value and diversified investments in a multi-currency portfolio.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as the value of the markets and currencies you invest in.  This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s and we have worked with and advised some of the largest currency traders in the world.

Gain Protection First – Against the Dollar’s Purchasing Power Loss.  In 1913 the The Federal Reserve Act created the Federal Reserve Bank to protect the purchasing power of the US dollar, which has since lost about 94% of its purchasing power.  Here is its price compared with gold since 1900.

priced in gold

Dollar chart from pricedingold.com (1)

The Fed has let the dollar lose most of its strength plus has allowed interest rates to fall so low, that safe investments cannot keep pace with the drop in purchasing power.

multi-currency-chart

Chart from Grandfather Economic Report (2)

Many investors have forgotten about the risk of a falling dollar because the greenback has been strong for the past five years.  This temporary dollar strength came after the great recession of 2009 just as there was temporary dollar strength after the great recession of the 1980s.  Then about six years after the recession, an agreement was made by major governments to weaken the dollar.

There was a severe global economic recession affecting much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect Europe and the UK through to at least 1985.  As a consequence between 1980 and 1985, the US dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, French franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time. Then the governments reached an agreement and exchange rate values of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987.

Now the world is again in the same place.  The recession is over.  Europe is a bit behind in recovery and the dollar is higher than before the recession.

There is no reason for the greenback to be  strong.

The agreement in 1985 was called the Plaza Accord.   Over just two years the greenback dropped nearly 50% versus other major currencies.  The next accord will generate great profits for those who know what to do while it ruins the purchasing power of dollar back investments.

The strong US dollar and low interest rates have created one of the biggest stock and multi currency breakout opportunities in history.  Learn how to create a plan to profit from multi currency shifts ahead.

One reason for the potential gains is that stock markets and currency values are cyclical.  Due to low interest rates created by the 2009 economic downturn, the US and a few other equity markets have risen to some of their highest prices, ever.  These markets offer very poor value now.  The steep valuation creates incredible profit potential but also hides some enormous risks.  Learn how to develop an investing strategy based of earnings, cash flows, dividends and book values to increase potential for profit and reduce the risks.

Next Extra Profit Created by Value Breakouts

Over the history of US equity markets, the  price of overall markets have risen about 9.1 percent, respectively, compounded annually.  Yet over more than a hundred years of stock market activity,  a majority of the profits have come from just a very few dramatic breakouts.

Equity markets are ruled in the short term by emotions that create unpredictable ups and downs.  Numerous fears of defaults, worries of double dip recessions, high unemployment, concerns about fiscal cliffs, hold investors back.  Yet global population growth and advances in production and prosperity are relentless economic fundamentals that increase value.

When fear holds back a a fundamentally rising value, rising profit potential grows.  Values increase as prices stagnate.  Then markets break free and rocket upwards creating wealth, prosperity and growth.

Find out which breakouts are likely to take place next.

Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns create war.

Here is the war stock cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WWIII) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Learn how the Cyber War (WWIV) may change the way we live and act and how this will affect currencies and investments.

Learn:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios), but his big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.  This rate of expansion by the way is called the “Golden Ratio”.  It is a mathematical formula that controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

We’ll sum the strategy, how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on your circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 (almost) years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy investing more with slow, worry free, good value investing.  Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These are major foundations of the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  The losses created by this gap grow when investors trade short term under stress.

Learn how to put meaning into your investing by creating profitable strategies that combine good value investments with unique, personal goals.

Learn how to span the behavior gap.  Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse, when they should embrace risk.  Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed.  One powerful way to overcome the behavior gap is to invest with a purpose.

Combine your needs and capabilities with the secrets and the math of our good value model portfolio.

Share ideas about my good value portfolio.  My personal investment portfolio comes from a continual analysis of international stock markets and a comparison of their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.

Markets included in this portfolio are:

• Norway
• Australia
• Hong Kong
• Japan
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Taiwan
• South Korea
• China

These markets have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

• Absolute Valuation
• Relative Valuation
• Current versus Historic Valuation
• Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

Learn how to use Country ETFs to easily construct a diversified, risk-controlled, equally weighted representative country portfolios in all of these good value countries.

To achieve this goal my portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs that track an index of shares in a specific country.  These country ETFs provide diversification into a basket of equities in the good value countries.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to pick and choose shares.  You can invest in the index which is like investing in all the shares in the index.  All you have to do is invest in an ETF that in turn invests passively in all the shares of the index.

Learn the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed a test.

The Test for Low Cost Trading

Research put every part of this portfolio in place, except knowing the best, easiest and least expensive way to buy.  A search for an optimal way to buy and hold boiled down to two methods.  One tactic to test was to use a unique online broker that appeared to offer the lowest cost deal.  The other approach was to use a community bank in Smalltown USA.  The small town bank that I use looks after my 401K trust account and their service is first class.  The benefit of small banks is that they still treat us as a human beings (instead of a number) and when we need, it’s easy to go right to the top to answer a question or get a problem resolved.  There are no call centers and the bank and the person looking after my account is just around the corner.

I created a test to see which offered the least expensive service.

Working with my banker in Smalltown USA,  I created two accounts, one at the online broker and the other at the bank. I placed $40,000 in each.

I set up the order for the country ETFs online, while my trust manager set up orders for the identical amounts of the same shares in his system.  Then we got on the phone, coordinated our timing and on a count of three each pushed the button “BUY”.

The results of this test  show how you can gain on any purchase of country ETFs.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2017” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

Gary

(1) Dollar chart from pricedingold.com

(2) Grandfather Economic Report

 

(1) Royal Bank of Canada website.

(2) In Emerging Markets, What Scares Most Investors Entices Oppenheimer

(3) http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=XWD.TO+Interactive

(4) www.finance.yahoo emerging market chart