Tag Archive | "Emerging Equities"

How Election Results Impact Stock Markets


What will the election results mean to the stock market?

If history is an accurate guide, “Not Much” is the answer to this question.

Last week we sent our Purposeful Investing (Pi) course subscribers, the November 2020 ENR Asset Management Market Outlook (1).   One key feature was some positive thoughts relating to the outcome of US election.

This issue of the Outlook says:   For investors worried about how the stock market will fare in the event of a divided government, history shows equities tend to rise regardless of which party controls government.

From 1929 through 2019, one party controlled both chambers of Congress and the presidency in 45 of those years.

The S&P 500 Index on average rose 7.45% during those years, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The index was up 30 times and down 15 times.

In the other 46 years when there was a split government, the index climbed 7.26% on average, rising 29 times, falling 16 times and remaining unchanged once;

According to Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, stocks have performed better under Democrats.

Since 1900, $10,000 invested in the Dow Jones Industrial Average only when Republicans were President would have grown to about $100,000 (4% annualized). The same $10,000 would have grown to nearly $430,000 if it were invested only when Democrats were President (6.1% annualized return).

The Outlook also upgraded Asia and emerging markets to BUY in November because Asian stocks are outperforming the United States by the most in ten years, according to Bloomberg and Rosenberg Research.

pixabay.com

Asia, where markets may be rising more

With the US stock markets exhibiting extreme volatility, we need international alternatives to balance our portfolios.

Once a quarter we send out Purposeful investing subscribers (Pi) a 52 page report prepared by Keppler Asset Management that looks at the value and performance of every emerging stock market in the world.  Here are short excerpts of the emerging markets report for the autumn of 2020.

 The report shows the values of the ten best value emerging markets.

keppler

We can compare these values to the high cost of the US and other overpriced markets.

keppler

Investing in a spread of the top value emerging markets at a price-to-book of 1.31 paid an average dividend of 3.78% compared to 1.63% from US markets.   Pus the price-to-book for  US shares is 3.96 more that three times higher than the average price-to-book for the top value emerging markets.

Plus investors who ignored overseas markets lost out!

Through September 2020, the US market was up  6.8%. The Taiwan market was up +14%, India +12.3.1%, China +12.0%,

After suffering one of their worst quarterly returns for the last thirty years in the first three months of this year, emerging markets equities recovered strongly.

Following double-digit returns in the second quarter, the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index (ND) climbed another  9.6% in US dollars.

Year-to-date, however, the MSCI EM TR Index is, in US dollars down 1.2% in the first nine months.

Among the three regional indices, Asia advanced 10.6%, while Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) gained 2.5% and Latin America was down 0.9%.

Year-to-date, Asia fared best, gaining 8.0% thanks to the good performance of China, while EMEA fell 10.5% and Latin America declined 17.4%.

Thirteen markets advanced last quarter, and also thirteen markets were down. Taiwan (+14%), India (+12.3.1%) and China (+12.0%) had the highest total returns last quarter, while Thailand (-11.9%), Hungary (-10.6%) and the Czech Republic (-8.6%) performed worst.

Year-to-date, however, only three out of the twenty-six markets included in the MSCI EM Index recorded a positive return.

The Top Value Model Portfolio gained 3.0% in US dollars last quarter.

There were no changes in Keppler’s country ratings last quarter. The Top Value Model Portfolio continues to hold ten markets—Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia and Taiwan—at equal weights.

According to Keppler’s analyses, an equally weighted combination of these most attractively valued markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.The table below shows how the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to selected indices as of the end of September, based on important variables (current numbers for book value, 12-months trailing numbers for the other variables—no forecasts).

keppler

According to Keppler’s analyses, the asset class Emerging Markets Equities is now undervalued by 24% compared with the MSCI World Index of the developed markets.

Moreover, the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio is undervalued by 28% compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets (Standard) Index, by 45% versus the MSCI World Index and by a whopping 61% compared to the MSCI EM Growth Index.

Therefore, the outlook for superior performance of emerging markets equities in general and the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio in particular, over the next three to five years, remains very favorable.

Note: Due to liquidity issues and geopolitical risks, Keppler assigns lower than equal weights to smaller markets in the portfolios they advise.

We live in a global economy and to keep our investments balanced with the world, we should keep a continual watch on value in all stock markets and look for international as well as local equity opportunity.

Gary

Add Safety, Profit & Get Paid Double

The next four years will be a period of high overseas stock growth.

The chart below shows the last 26 years of real-time forecasting by the global equity analyst we track to make our portfolio decisions.

The analyst is Keppler Asset Management and the index they create The KAM Equally Weighted World Index is 15.4% below the value that the analyst forecast four years ago in September 2016.

The chart shows how in the past, two and a half decades there have been four opportunities (red Xs) when the entry levels in global markets were below or around the lower valuation band.  In the previous three low points like this, there has always been the highest growth and positive returns three to five years later.

keppler

 

So it’s good to know that if you invest in global stock markets overall, now, you’ll make capital gains over the next four or five years.

More importantly you get paid more income now!

Current markets have turned economic history upside down.  Normally bonds pay the highest interest rates and add safety to a portfolio.  Not in 2020.

This year equities have been paying a higher yield than bonds.

As of November 2020, according to Ycharts.com, (1)  AA bond yields are at 1.59%.

ycharts.com

 

The US MSCI Index pays a modest 1.68% as of November 2020 .  That’s a terrible yield, but better than the 1.59% you can get in AA rated corporate bonds.

Just because US stocks pay more than dollar denominated bonds, does not mean they offer the best income deal.  In fact US shares pay one of the lousiest average yields of the 46 stock markets we, via Keppler, monitor around the world.

Eight solid, top value stock markets (shown below) not only add diversification and the best long term profit potential, they pay more than double the average US yield.  They pay  3.57% compared to the US yield of 1.68%.

keppler

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of a handful of top value share ETFs and this position has hardly changed in five years.

Let me explain why this strategy adds safety, increases long term appreciation potential and pays almost double short term income right now.

During the past five years, I have been steadily accumulating the same good value ETFs.  I have traded only five times, so my trading costs, my fuss, fiddle and time spent have been kept to an absolute minimum.

I have been investing in iShare country ETFs.  Each one invests in the MSCI Index of one of the top value markets above.

My strategy protects against stock market volatility and yet has potential for the best gains long term from rising share prices by holding an equally weighted portfolio of the best value based country ETFs.

The Purposeful Investing Course uses Keppler analytics to track 46 stock markets around the world into determine which markets offer the best value.

Since no one knows what the future will bring, investing in value makes the most long term sense.

Plus Value ETFs are Safer

The people who dominate stock markets include a pack of thieves.  This fact has always been true.  We were recently reminded of this fact when Wirecard AG, one of Europe’s most prestigious companies, listed on Germany’s premier stock-market index, the Dax 30 fooled everyone including its top grade, longtime auditor, Ernst & Young GMBH.

The shares in German fintech company Wirecard AG (symbol WDI fell 63.74% as it filed for insolvency proceedings, after revealing that more than $2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet was all a fraud.  The company’s market value fell to less than €500 million from almost €13 billion in a week.

Investors have seen this type of rip off again and again, really big scams from Enron to Bernie Madoff and these are just the tip of the iceberg.

Shares in stock markets are manipulated all the time.  Stock markets (in fact almost all types of markets) are led by sharks plain and simple.  Count on this fact.  This is the nature of the beast and the number one goal of many big businesses is to take as much of your money as they can to line their pockets.

In the Wirecard AG example many  thousands of investors have seen their hard work, their thrift, their security and hopes for the future disappear, even though they seemingly did everything right by investing in a blue chip, new era, high tech company.

A study of 92 years of investment returns shows that, despite the fraud and cheating and deceit, stock markets are still a good way to make your money grow… if you invest long term and diversify.

keppler

Our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) strategy makes it harder for cheaters to grab your wealth because it’s very hard to manipulate an entire stock market, much less a dozen or so stock markets around the world.

Manipulators have a hard time tricking an entire market, especially larger markets.  If you get the best value country ETFs, your chances of long term profits improve.

Pi teaches an an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

Sticking to math based stock market value and country ETFs eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.   Investing in an index is like investing in all the major shares of the market.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of iShare Country Index ETFs managed by Black Rock, Inc.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

My developed market portfolio has been diversified into eight developed markets: Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the good value markets.

The ETFs provide higher income and incredible diversification for safety, plus the highest long term profit potential.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for most stock markets around the world.

Here’s how you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

You also receive a 100+ page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more of all 46 markets.

This year I will celebrate my 52nd anniversary of global investing and writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in the Pi course.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of higher performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $124.50 off the subscription.

Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report and access to all the updates of the past two years, plus all new updates over the next year.

I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know in the first two months for a full no fuss full refund.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic we have cut the subscription to $174.50.  You save $124.50!

Then because this global recovery from the pandemic is going to take years, we’ll maintain your subscription at just $99 a year rather than $299.  Your subscription will be autorenewed in 2021 at $99, though you can cancel at any time.

Click here to subscribe to Pi at the discounted rate of $174.50

Subscribe to Pi today and you get a year’s subscription to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Gary

(1) Ycharts.com corporate bond yields

Multi Currency Trust


Multi currency trust is really important now. A huge multi currency stock market and property correction could be just ahead.

This correction can bring unprecedented value opportunity. But how do we know who to trust?

If our multi currency investments are in what we know and with those we trust…our investing is always one step ahead.

For example, below you will see a breakdown of my total multi currency position and why I have made money this last year when so many have lost.

One important point to note is that the largest increase in my multi currency portfolio is in Ecuador real estate. This is because I am involved in Ecuador every day and have a feel for what is going on. Plus I know people in Ecuador that I trust.

Take for example the Vitazul Ecuador beach condos built by Kjetil Haugan.

One reason I made an investment there is because I have worked with Kjetil for more than a decade and I trust him. I first met Kjetil when he had just moved to Ecuador and was beginning to develop business there. Now, just over a decade later he has one of the largest Spanish schools in Ecuador, one of the largest travel agencies in Ecuador, two boats that tour the Galapagos, a hotel and he is building 63 condos. Here is Kjetil at the condo construction.

multi-currency-condo-builder

Over the decade Kjetil has surprised me with what he gets done again and again. So when he contacted me last November and told me about the condos and the clubhouse-hotel he was building, I immediately became interested.

Last November when he contacted me the condo clubhouse looked like this.

multi-currency-condo-hotel

and the clubhouse swimming pool was…

multi-currency-condo-beach-pool

Yet he told me that he would be operational for the new year.

He was.

I drove down from our home in the Andes shortly (January 20 to be exact) after and was the first condo investor because of trust AND WHAT I KNOW ABOUT ECUADOR. This is on the record. See what I wrote in January 2008 about this project at Ecuador Beaches.

Here is the club house now…less than a year later.

multi-currency-condo-clubhouse

and the pool.

multi-currency-condo-pool

When I arrived nine months ago, the land where the condos were to be built looked like this.

multi-currency-condo-site

…just nine months ago. Here it is now.

multi-currency-condo-construction

In nine months…in Ecuador…on the coast…amazing!

Yet I was able to invest at the beginning before inflation started to really bite. Investing in what you know and in those you trust pays.

Prices have risen on these condos, but still offer an incredible value, plus until October 1, Kjetil is offering the original price (a $10,000 savings) to Ecuador Living subscribers.

For details on the units below contact Thor Anderson at thor@sanclementeecuador.com

Before you invest anywhere, however, let me please exclaim loudly…proceed with care.

We may be seeing a systemic cleansing similar to the 20s. Even if we are not, this is a time when investors can do everything, that in the past, was right and still lose. This is one reason why I like investing in real estate (US and Ecuador) now. I know and trust real estate. Real estate is a multi currency inflation hedge. Real estate is a hedge aganst a falling US dollar. Government bail outs create inflation. Real estate is an inflation hedge.

You can see the increase of real estate in the breakdown of my own portfolio this year

Many indicators suggest that this is a time when most investors believe the market will be down, but it actually will rise…perhaps a lot. So looking for value in equities and real estate make sense now.

Invest now? Does this sound crazy? Probably no crazier than in August 2007 when everything looked so fantastic and I warned readers to reduce debt and I unloaded most of my equities, moving into cash, Ecuador real estate and bonds instead.

As you can imagine I am pretty happy about this right now. I am reviewing my exact portfolio with my multi currency course subscribers at this time. Here is a portion of what they are reviewing, the breakdown of my personal portfolio a year ago and where it is right now. The percentages are rounded.

October 2007 Total Cash 9.7%

October 2008 Cash 10%

October 2008 Foreclosure Cash 3%

October 2008 Total Cash 13%

October 2007 Equities 6%

October 2007 Emerging Equities 1.5%

October 2008 Equities 5%

October 2008 Emerging Equities 1%

October 2008 Total Equities 6%

October 2007 Bonds 31.7%

October 2007 Emerging Bonds 8.5%

October 2008 Bonds 24%

October 2008 Emerging Bonds 10%

October 2008 Total Bonds 34%

October 2007 US Farmland 21%

October 2008 US Farmland 31%

October 2007 US Commercial Property 19%

October 2008 US Commercial Property 6%

October 2007 Ecuador Property 3%

October 2008 Ecuador Property 10%

First, let me clarify that this portfolio is not totally accurate. All the property is shown at cost. Much of this was purchased as long as a decade ago and could be sold for much more than shown. Both US and Ecuador property.

Second, even without trying to estimate a real estate value the portfolio rose…just a bit…about 5%. That is less then half the performance in 2007, but for this last year I am pleased. Not losing in 2008 is good! In addition to maintaining the portfolio’s capital, I feel especially well positioned to capitalize on current events. My cash position has grown and and many of the existing bonds mature this next year. This gives me plenty of liquidity to pick up bargains created by the market correction.

Third, I did little buying or selling of equities this year. The reduction of equities in the portfolio is entirely due to drops in price of the equities held.

I mostly looked for bargains in real estate…mainly in Ecuador and picked up several.

The same is true for bonds. The reduction in bonds in the portfolio is due to
maturities and the increase in emerging markets is due to currency strengthening of the bonds held.

Last year I felt a bit like a spider sitting in its web watching the fly come closer.

Now I am ready to bite! I have committed 3% of my portfolio to buying US real estate foreclosures.

Plus I am watching equities. The time to buy may be near. You can learn why as a multi currency course subscriber

Until next message may everything you believe in be worthy of your trust.

Gary

I’ll review my entire portfolio and all this thinking next weekend. October 3-5 in North Carolina at our International Investing and Business Course. Why don’t you join me.

The course was fully booked but we had many late applications and have have moved to a larger meeting room so still have space.

Join me with Thomas Fischer of Denmark’s Jyske Global Asset Management, who was a currency trader for years to review our multi currency portfolio thinking for the year ahead.

To help our subscribers meet and learn, we are giving all delegates at the North Carolina course a FREE year’s subscription to our online multi currency course. This is a $249 value.

This will not be all work-no play. We selected this particular weekend as the most likely to be beautiful with the autumnal leaf change. The colors are glorious.

autumn-gold

Here delegates at a previous course chat during a coffee break.

blue-ridge-leaf-change

Gary

Join us in North Carolina next week end October 3-5 and save $249. Enroll here.

Or join us in November to inspect Ecuador property for sale

Vistazul-Ecuador-beach-condos-model

Our September 17-20 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour; Quito Real Estate Tour was sold out as was our September 28-29 Imbabura Real Estate Tour was sold out.

Our Oct 14-18 Ecuador Import Export Course only has a couple of spaces open.
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-import-and-export-tour

We still have space in November

Join us in Cotacachi at El Meson de las Flores.

cotacachi-daybreak

Nov 7-9 International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/international-business-made-ez-ecuador

See these condos at $46,000 in Cotacachi.

Nov 10-11 Imbabura Real Estate tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-real-estat

Dine with delegates at the Vistazul clubhouse.

Ecuador-fishng-view-4

November 12-15, 2008 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour; Quito Real Estate Tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-coastal-real-estate-tour

Multi Currency Question – Recession


Here is a good multi currency question about the global recession.

Recessions create opportunity for multi currency investors, but not always in the short term. Good value oriented multi currency investors may even suffer more during downturns. Recessions improve value in multi currency portfolios but the profits from this value comes only when markets recover.

Value investors are not market timing investors. This is good because most market timers usually lose in the long term.

Well diversified multi currency portfolios reduce volatility but do not eradicate it totally as is explained in the answer to this good multi currency question.

Here is the multi currency question:

“HI Gary, First let me send my love to you and Merri from Israel and thank you for your sharing of info. The question I have is: With the credit problems and banks going under and reduced credit globally shouldn’t this bring down global valuations on stocks? Wouldn’t it be a risky time time to be invested in most stock markets? I read that it is the credit that is propping up the share value. I also read that it is possible for 150 banks to go under, that seems like it would be a huge ripple effect. It seems that it is not isolated to just the states, last week I read about the Danish bank in serious problems. I remember you recommending property, commodities and shares to fight inflation. Do you think the shares rewards outweigh the risk in times like these? Thanks for any insight without panic.”

Here is a reply about multi currency investing that you may find worth study.

Thanks for your question.

First, we are not advocates of market timing. Remember rule number seven of the Seven Rules of Global Investing. “Value is reflected long term. Equity markets are efficient in the long run but are not effective short term due to human behavior”.

Having said this, we do realign the weighting of our investing activity based on our beliefs of where the 30 year market cycle stands. To learn more about the thirty year cycle.

Longer term subscribers know that we began warning about equity markets in August 2007 (the 17th to be exact) when we wrote: “Such historical measures are so inexact that we cannot predict just from them what will happen in the short term. The numbers are close enough that we could be entering the fourth sub cycle down (similar to 1976 to 1978). If so expect a sustained drop in markets for two to three years.” See the entire warning here.

Our September 21, 2007, message said: “Equity markets dropped again violently last month. Now these markets have recovered again. Yet this may be a last gasp party. This drop of interest rates at a time when inflation is beginning to soar could lead to a rapidly falling US dollar. We can see from the chart here that the dollar has done almost nothing but drop for 40 years (that chart is below). Yet much more dollar dropping could be in store.”

The October 14, 2007 message stated: “Periods of high performance are followed by times of low returns. We never know for sure when an upwards cycle will stall. Fundamentals look good for a bright 2008 in emerging and equity markets, but this can change quickly so to give our readers a better perspective, this year we are reducing leverage and adding a sixth portfolio with no leverage to study”.

Oct. 15, 2007 we wrote: “Okay, it’s time to turn the burner down.”

We offered a “leverage dwindling” warning on Oct. 26 where I explained to readers that I had eliminated even my modest leverage and wrote: “There is a final reason I liquidated my leverage now…to lead by example. Too many readers are thinking that the dollar short or dollar neutral Portfolios are only up 38% or 48% for the year. When one thinks that way they could be headed for trouble, so I hope investors will follow my lead and take greater care with their leverage.”

The November 8, 2007 Black Friday interim message warned about all the points above and more. At that time I let readers know that I had reduced the equity portion of my personal portfolio to 6%.

My published portfolio at that time was.

Real Estate 43.0%
Euro 10.5%
Emerging markets 10.0%
Danish kroner 9.9%
US$ 8.2%
British pound 6.0%
Swedish kroner 4.0%
NZ$ 3.7%
Aust. $ 1.0%
Canadian $ 1.0%

The liquid portion of my portfolio was

Cash 9.7%
Equities 6.0%
Bonds 31.7%
Emerging Equities 1.5%
Emerging Bonds 8.5%

There is a chance that equities will fall further. Yesterday’s Multi Currency Portfolio update focused on why value investments tend to drop more in downturns than the norm.

However, this is the best way to make long term multi currency profits…buy good value shares on the downside. One can never predict when the market will turn and when it does turn most market timers get in too late.

I lean towards real estate rather than shares because this is fun for me.

The way each person should position the multi currency portfolio should be based on what they love, enjoy and know best…real estate, commodities or shares. All three asset classes offer more potential than any one person can capture in a lifetime. Why not go with what brings the greatest joy in your life?

Regards,

Gary

P.S. Don’t miss our offer that expires the end of July 2008 for Fresh Ecuador Roses 50 FREE

Learn how to be a better multi currency investor.

Join us and stay at our farm for Susan Rotman’s business intuition course.

Dine with Merri’s excellent home cooking served outdoors in the cool mountain air.

outdoor-cooking

See dates for our Autumn courses and tours:

Visit the San Clemente condos and real estate from Manta north and south. Here are the condos going up.

ecuador-coastal-condos

Ecuador Coastal-Quito Real Estate Tour

Ecuador Super Thinking + Spanish Course

Enjoy learning at our Cotacachi hotel

open-air-learning

Ecuador Imbabura Real Estate Tour

International Investing and Business Made EZ North Carolina

Ecuador Ecuador Import Export Course

International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador

See discounts for attending more than one course.