Tag Archive | "Economics"

Good Micro Business Value Trends


Looking for good micro business value trends can help us be secure… and successful.

Yesterday’s message reviewed  how value should always be sought in all investments. During these times of change and likely inflation, there are five good places to invest… equities, multi currency investments, commodities, real estate and your own micro business.  Creating value in your micro business is important and the internet is one way to gain enormous value in your micro business.

This message shares three tips that can help you have or improve a micro business.

Micro Business Tip #1:  Look for a niche that is under exposed. Look for ideas that are popular… then avoid the pack. Look for opportunities on the fringe of that idea. Reduce competition.

Micro Business Tip #2:  Focus tenaciously on the fringe niche. When you have a niche that is almost popular but with little competition and remain focused on that niche, you can create good value from search engine optimization.

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Take our Ecuador rose business as an example.  Flowers are and have always been a big business.  Yet marketing flowers is highly competitive.  Roses also have always been and are big business… but this is also a highly competitive market.   Ecuador roses also have been a big business for decades.  No country grows better roses.

Yet at the fringe are “Ecuador Valentine Roses” and “Ecuador Christmas Roses” and “Ecuador Easter Roses.”  These holidays are known as the big three sales dates for Ecuador roses… by far.   Our Ecuador flower business focuses on these fringe times in our marketing.

Our websites use these holiday phrases… a lot.

This adds value to my efforts.  For example, last Thursday, I wrote about how readers can order Ecuador Valentine’s Roses.

By the next morning our two websites ranked #1, #2 and #3 for the phrases “Ecuador Valentine’s Roses” and “Ecuador Valentine Rose”.

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Almost ditto for the phrase Ecuador Valentines… our site ranked #1 and #2.

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We gained these good results because we concentrated on the fringe of the phrase “Ecuador Roses”.

That phrase “Ecuador Roses” is very competitive. We could spend a lot of time, effort and money to rank well… and still not get a good position for that phrase.

For the phrase “Ecuador Christmas Roses” seven of the first ten articles ranked at Google are for our web sites.  Google ranks our articles our articles rank #1, #2, #3 for the phrase “Ecuador Easter Roses” not to mention that articles at our websites rank #1,#2,#3,#4,#5,#6, & #7 for the phrase Ecuador Easter lilies.

So during the times when most Ecuador roses are sold… our websites provide our marketing efforts the best value.

Focusing on the fringewe have discovered allows us to even sometimes back into very competitive phrases such as “Ecuador Roses”.

Often we use photos to circumnavigate competition. There is competition in articles and ads for the phrase “Ecuador Roses”… but not so many competitors with photos.

Goggling the phrase “Ecuador Roses” brings the images of Ecuador roses on page one.  That single golden rose right in the middle of those shots is ours… and clicking there leads directly to our site.

ecuador-valentine-roses

We gain many new readers and extra business in this way.  This SES (search engine success) gives leverage to each page we post at our websites. That leverage creates extra value to each page. Each page becomes a powerful marketing tool that can lead new readers our way.

Micro business Tip #3:  Play games so the focus of your business evolves! Finding and focusing on fringe business niches is a great way to start a business. Figuring our how to reinvent the business and evolve is a great way to stay in business.

Evolutionary thinking relies on relaxed concentration.  A combination of logic… intuition… and experience dramatically enhances the chances of continual success. One way to integrate these three assets of logic… intuition and experience in a relaxed and focused way is by listening to baroque music.  Another is meditation.

Studies have shown that listening to certain beats and meditation both increase alpha and theta brain waves as well as slow the heart beat and lower blood pressure.  Meditation tends to create a state of “restful alertness”… certain types of music bring a state of “relaxed concentration”.   Each of these mental states can help your business succeed.

Another way to help a business get started or grow is through play.

Business start ups and evolution are often stalled by resistance to change.   Change is feared because there is always something we do not know.  Hence the old phrase “DANCE WITH THE DEVIL WE KNOW, RATHER THAN THE DEVIL WE DON’T“.  The logic is to stick with someone or something that is known to be bad, rather then risk something new that may be worse.

The faster the change… the worse ignoring it is as a tactic.

If we embrace change, it becomes our friend.  Change opens fields of opportunity and is always there.  We can embrace change, if we can trust our intuition and integrate it with our logic.

The advantages of change have proven themselves in our business experience.  The years that we lived and worked with shamans and wise men in numerous disciplines also revealed the fact that change is wonderful when we make adaptation a regular game.

The Ecuador yatchak we lived with continually showed us ways to embrace change through play.

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Here are photos I took during an Ecuador shamanic tour.

FM (Frequency Modulation) Thinking tactics to help our Super Thinking plus Spanish delegates learn how to absorb, retain and recall more information.  FM thinking combines intuition and logic that helps us improve our logic and think beyond logic.

Many Ecuador shamans and shamanas teach the Eagle & Condo Prophesy… a time will come when the eagle and condor fly in the skies together.   Many believe that the eagle represents logic and the condor intuition.  The prophesy says that sharing of indigenous knowledge with the technologies of science will help balance mankind.

One way to blend intuition and thinking is through intellectual play.

A game is play, with a set of rules. This is important… because when we play… we can create rules that are beyond the norm… outside the box of logic…  so our information processing and decision making can escape the tyranny of reason.

Playing is usually undertaken for enjoyment…  but nature is actually very serious about play. Play is nature’s ultimate educational hook. The fact that play is fun is really important.  When we do something fun… without risk…we do it better.  We can let our imagination soar so we can see eventualities in enjoyable, non threatening ways.

Formalized expressions of play allow us to go beyond their immediate imagination and direct physical activity to see life’s potential in different ways.

When games eliminate play… they lose impact… thus the demise of professional sports which are no longer games… but business.

Playing allows us to use disambiguation in resolving future conflicts.  This is because our future is always ambiguous… even if we think not.  Our life can take any number of  paths that lead in different directions… at any time.

This leaves us asking, “What should I do?”

Playing allows us to create a set of out-of-the-box rules that direct us in ways we would never logically reach but can imagine.  Because it is fun and without threat… we can see future opportunity in numerous expanded ways.

Playing reduces the risk of the unknown… eliminating the fear that makes it seem like the devil we do not know.

One way we can use play to get business ideas is by tapping into our deeper brain frequencies.

Here is how to unlock these higher forms of intelligence which we cannot access in lingual form.

Step #1: Write by hand for five or ten minutes everything you can about a business idea.  This connects the the mind body functions.

Step #2: Take a ten minute meditation or sit quietly for 10 minutes listening to Baroque largo music.  Relax and let your mind wander… use innocence… no expectation.

Step #3: At the end of ten minutes write down whatever is on your mind at that time. Write as much about it as you can.

That’s the game. In the thoughts…in the visions that you had at the end of the ten minute meditation or in the quiet listening, there will be an out of the box idea to dwell on… often in graphic form…a picture rather than words.  Dwell easily on this in context of your business.

This tactic was taught to me by a Buddhist Monk and the first time I tried it, the picture I had at the end of my meditation was of pink elephants.   “Man… what’s this got to do with my work?” I thought.

pink-elphants

Pink Elephants… in business?

We are connected… we are a part of infinite intelligence… that is overwhelming in relation to our ability to think… especially in terms as restrictive as language.  The universe terra, terra infinite, bytes of data.  Our logic in comparison as a processor… not even 64K.  So at the least we cannot expect to tap into the universe in English.   Symbols perhaps.

A look at Ted Andrew’s book “Animal Speak  for Symbolic Analysis”  said that the Elephant  is the “Symbol of the Highest True Self.”   This graphic relates to
Ancient Power, Strength and Royalty, Strength of the Feminine: The Child, the Woman,  and the Wise Woman (Matriarchal Head of Family). The Importance of Family, Fertility, Sexual Power, Discrimination, Clouds and Illusion, Out of Control Masculine Rage.

According to the book “Symbol Sourcebook: An Authoritative Guide to International Graphic Symbols” by Henry Dreyfus, the symbolism in the color pink usually serves two purposes.  It can be used to show childish innocence, or a characters child-like personality.  For example, Mami (the girl at the top of the page with the pink hair), very much wants to remain a child.  She gets pleasure out of very simple, and ‘childish’ things.  So, her hair is pink.  Even so, Miho-chan also would like to grow up and become an adult woman… but she’s also afraid of losing her childhood innocence.  It can also be used to show a more flirtatious personality.  Pink is normally a color associated with girls and femininity.  Pink is considered a color of good health and life – we speak of people being “in the pink” or the “freshness” of a newborn babe.

This gave me plenty of input with which to reflect on about business!

Your own micro business can help you enjoy today’s accelerating change. Three ways to improve your existing business or get started is… find a niche on the fringe. Focus on this niche and then let it evolve in a playful way.

Gary

Two for One Seminar.  Save up to $397 Extra.

We’ll look at three ways to apply Frequency Modulation Thinking in investing and business at our upcoming International Investing and Business courses in Mt. Dora Florida this  February 11-12 and 13.

You do not even have to wait to get started.  We have recordings of our International Investing and our International Business Made EZ seminars available online.  You can enroll in any of these online courses now and we’ll email them to you immediately so you can listen to the seminar now with a CD or MP3.

Order the three digital seminars in MP3.

IBEZ Course ($149): https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/digi/ibez10/
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Save $397 – Get the three digital seminars FREE now.

Enroll in our February International Investing & Business made EZ seminar and I’ll send the digital seminar to you immediatrly… no extra charge. You save $397 more.

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Save $895 Total – Attend both seminars save $498 and get the three digital seminars FREE now.

You do not even have to wait to get started.  We have recordings of our International Investing and our International Business Made EZ seminars available online.  You can enroll in any of these online courses now and we’ll email them to you immediately so you can listen to the seminar now with a CD or MP3.

When you enroll in the February Mt. Dora seminars, I’ll send recorded seminars immediately.

Don’t Be a Sitting Duck


Don’t be a sitting duck when…

gary-scott-ducks

the shooting starts.

There is a way to let the upcoming US dollar crunch increase your income.  Not by raising ducks… but by not being a sitting duck.

Merri and I raise mallards (that arrive in the mail). When they mature we put them on…

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our…

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pond at our farm.  They love it spring… summer and…

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fall.

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Then the ducks leave before the cold winter arrives. They do not want to be sitting ducks when the weather turns ill.

Neither do you.

Here is the first story in the second chapter of the first book I wrote.  The book is entitled “Passport to International Profit”.  This was written in the 1970s.  But the economic concerns still apply now.

Here is what that chapter in the book said :

Having a Harbor

Doesn’t everyone dream of having some safe harbor for the ultimate escape? A completely dependable last line of defense, so that when everything else falls to pieces, one can drop back inside this cozy little shelter and enjoy a safe snug comfortable life. Certainly it is sensible to have one. In fact, to my way of thinking, anyone who doesn’t have quite a few safe harbors is not only playing a dangerous game he doesn’t have to play, he is missing one of the greatest contentment’s of life..confidence.

Duck in the Pond Theory

We would all have our own little partnership with our own little pond if we were ducks. The pond gives us water, food, shelter and peace. We, in turn, give it ducks. For what is a pond without ducks? We clean it, eat up unnecessary plants and in general keep everything in tiptop condition. However, every once in a while the hunters arrive. Very quickly the rules of the partnership change. You see, the pond as your partner has a limited range of powers. Whether it likes it or not, a new partnership is about to be imposed upon the pond. It will be forced to join in a hunter/pond partnership and part of the rules of that relationship is that the hunters can shoot at the ducks on the pond. This not only throws you, the duck, into an unrequested, unwanted hunter/hunted partnership but threatens to terminate quickly your duck/pond partnership.

It’s possible if you are not careful that you will become a diner/dinner partner on the wrong end of the fork. Logic dictates what to do in a situation like this. Since your pond partner is no longer dependable because the rules are about to be changed, you should take the initiative. Rule #1 of the Duck in the Pond Theory is in fact “Don’t be a sitting duck when the shooting starts”, so you’ve go to decide what to do.

All too often in real life, people get too upset with change to use logic. Their first reaction instead is dismay. They sit there wallowing in disappointment, shock and anger because their pond has let them down. Or even worse, they sit there looking at the gun barrels and choose to blind themselves to the reality of the situation, saying this is some sort of joke or the hunters are really looking for rabbits or the pond won’t let this happen.

Rule #2 in this theory is “be realistic”. If you don’t accept that partnerships can change daily or ignore the limitations of your partner; you are not capable of deciding when to run for your harbor. You’ll lie to yourself and probably to your partner. This gums up the whole works. You’ll mess up a fairly clean machine by adding unwanted, useless nuts and bolts which do nothing but clog everything up.

The human mind/body partnership has an almost unlimited capacity to ignore its eyeballs, to adjust reality to match its desires. This inbred flaw causes humans to ignore reality and expect the world to revolve around them. Being realistic is accepting that no person, thing or partnership is indispensable or permanent. Realism is recognizing change and accepting it when no one is able to stop it.

If, by being realistic, you recognize that as much as you love your pond and as much as the gun barrels look harmless, that the shooting is not far away, you must act. You must get off the pond. Where do you go? Rule #3 of the theory is to be sure you have another pond to go to. I call it having a positive pond factor. The more places you have to go, the more positive your pond factor.

Today we are forced into a citizen/government partnership with a government that has borrowed way more than we can repay.

This will cause the US dollar to fall and inflation to rise… eventually.

There will be the few who are prepared to gain from this. Most could become poorer… especially those with fixed income… pensions… savings in the bank or bonds in greenbacks.

Those with salaries may be protected a bit… yet with higher unemployment the risk of their losing their job will be higher as well.

In this era of great economic change… one constant we can be quite sure of  is inflation…. which hurts those on fixed income and salaries the most.

The market of big investors is acting as if they believe in inflation. On Oct. 25, 2010 the U.S. Treasury sold $10 billion of five-year TIPS at a negative yield.  This was the first time investors were willing to receive negative returns at a Treasury bond auction.

TIPS are inflation protected bonds. The interest rates are inflation adjusted.

November 4, 2010 the U.S. Treasury sold $10 billion more 10-year TIPS bonds at a record low yield of 0.409% after the previous low interest rate of 1.019% was set at a Sept. 2, 2010 auction.

This suggests that investors have confidence the Fed will win the battle against deflation, and create  inflation.

Yet there is that pesky word… eventually.

The recent US treasury auction of TIPS bonds suggests at first sight that the market expects inflation, but it also shows that the market expects deflation first.

A WSJ guest commentator wrote:  When inflation-protected Treasury bonds, or TIPS, were sold with a negative yield recently, it was widely seen as a result of rising inflation expectations. Economics Professor Jonathan Wright of Johns Hopkins University says that the negative yield means investors expect inflation will remain too low.

What does the recent TIPS auction really say about inflation expectations?

The most recent five-year TIPS auction brought a negative real yield and elicited front page stories in the New York Times and Wall Street Journal about worries of high inflation. The TIPS auction does bring troublesome news for inflation, but it is the opposite of the news reported in the coverage: if anything, the auction suggests anemic inflation, below the Fed’s target range of 1.5% to 2%.

The standard calculation of breakeven rates of inflation based on comparing nominal and real five-year yields suggests that the TIPS bond will give the investor the same return as the nominal bond if inflation over the next five years averages 1.5% per year. That’s low to start with. But in our current situation facing some risk of ongoing deflation, this standard calculation will tend to overstate anticipated inflation. TIPS have the peculiar feature that they are a one-sided bet — while the principal is adjusted upwards for inflation, it is not adjusted downwards for deflation.

This makes TIPS more attractive when there is a risk of deflation, pushing their price up and yield down. At present, adjusting for this “insurance against deflation” would lower the implied breakeven rate of inflation to even less than 1.5%.

The five ways to combat inflation are:

#1: Move where costs are lower… such as Ecuador. See today’s message about Urcuqui Ecuador where there may be extra value in Ecuador real estate.

#2: Invest in real estate.

#3: Invest in commodities.

#4: Have your own small business.

#5: Invest in equities.

However if this inflation is going to take time to rise… it is really urgent to get your strategy and timing correct.

First, do not leverage heavily.

Second, do not speculate expecting a fast turn.

Third, diversify and look for inflationary fighters that hold up during deflation.

Examples?

Instead of pure commodities… I purchased shares in a Polish mining company that produces copper and silver. The shares pay a decent income… good for deflation but also good for inflation and I get a play on the Polish zloty which may be under valued.  I also invested in high dividend hydro energy companies.

In real estate I buy fixer uppers. In deflation, costs to fix up go down… end results are better profits when inflation returns.

I focus more on investing in our own small business as it can offer services and gain during inflation and deflation.

Hope these suggestions help!
Gary

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The Huge 2020 Risk

Here is a huge risk that could explode in 2020.

I hope I am wrong… but the numbers are clear.

According to Treasurydirect.com, (1) as of December 26, 2020 the total US public debt was 23 trillion and 845 billion dollars.

This is not a theoretical problem for the future.  This is not something that our children and grandchildren will have to deal with.  This is a problem in the here and now for you and me.

Rising interest rates create a massive problem for every American.

treasury direct

Look at how the interest costs alone have risen to over a half trillion dollars a year.

treasury direct

 

The bad news is that the (US federal debt) is getting bigger….harder to miss.  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected in 2010 (the debt then was a bit over 14 trillion) that, under law at that time, debt held by the public would exceed $16 trillion by 2020, reaching nearly 70 percent of GDP.

The $7 Trillion Error.

They sure goofed on that.  Here we are… only in 2020 and debt has shot past 23 trillion.

How could the CBO be so wrong? 

The CBO screwed up because they could never imagine that the Fed would push interest rates so low… and keep them there.  The interest rates are so low that the government has been able to borrow more than imagined and still afford the interest.

For example, US Federal government interest last year amounted to around $573 billion.  Yet in 2008 on debt of only $9 trillion +  the interest that year was $451 billion +.

Interest payments in 2017 were 27% higher than they were in 2008.  Yet the debt is over 250% higher.  

Very low interest rates have helped the government borrow.  Low interest has also helped the US stocks reach all time high prices.

The government will resist raising rates because it will ruin their budget, cause a collapse of the stock markets and destroy the US dollar.

Rising interest rates, will create an almost unimaginable debt crisis.  If government interest doubles it is like the $23+ trillion national debt  rising to 46 trillion!  Unless there are some huge tax increase the interest payments are not sustainable.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife, Merri and I, have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.

Let me share the basics of this data and how we can be of help through 2020.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.

Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life through 2020 and beyond.

A falling US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but also brings a window of huge profit as I explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average passed a record high, the U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

The double shock of money fleeing Wall Street and US debt skyrocketing, will destroy the purchasing power of the greenback.

Go to the store even now.  Statistics say inflation is low, but buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.  Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.

Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?

What can we do?

Gain a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I will celebrate our 50th year of global living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Global micro business income.

#2:  Low cost, natural health.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, investments that take little time or cost to buy and hold… so you can focus on earning more instead

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on better, easier investing.

28 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

Join us for all of 2020 NOW.

The three disciplines, earning, health and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three natural health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However you’ll receive this free as club member and save $59.85.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to you as a club member free.  You save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $2299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Platinum Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

Now there is a new distortion ready to ripen in the year ahead.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Platinum Dip 2019”.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged precious metal speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Platinum Dip 2018” offers enormous profit potential in 2018.

The report “Platinum Dip 2019” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Platinum Dip 2019”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: A year’s follow up subscription to the Purposeful investing course… Plus more.

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons 2019 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 

 

 

Read entire  Wall Street Journal blog about TIPS auction

International Investing Value in Turkey & Brazil


There is international investing value in Turkey and Brazil.

Istanbul McDonalds by SpirosK.

McDonalds in Istanbul.

Earlier this week we looked at good value major and good value emerging markets.
We also saw that emerging markets have been and continue to dramatically outperform major markets.

Two of the good value emerging markets I like and have recommended often are Turkey and Brazil.

I last recommended investing in Turkey in July 2010 and followed my own advice.

I am happy about that. The Turkey mutual fund I invested in has soared.

The chart below of the Istanbul stock market from tradingeconomics.com shows why I am taking some profits by selling some of my Turkey mutual fund shares now.

instanbul-stock-chart

I have just reduced my position in Turkey and taken some profits from this July recommendation…. but I have to be honest, I was overweighted and speculating on Turkey which is not what I do often.  I made a nice quick profit and have now sold about half my Turkey holdings.

This message has two messages. First, if you followed my July 2010 thinking… you may want to consider taking some profits now.

Yet this longer term chart shows why I am not selling all of my Turkey shares.

instanbul-stock-chart

The longer term suggestion is that the Istanbul index could well rise quite a bit more as it appears to have passed an opportunity for a head and shoulders fall. Turkey as mentioned is a good value market, plus Turkish Prospects still look good. The Economist published A special report on Turkey October 21, 2010.

Here are excerpts from this report: Turkey has made astonishing progress in the past decade, says John Peet. But how will it fare if the IMF and the EU are not there to keep it on the straight and narrow? It can take decades to change the image of a country. Yet Turkey has managed the trick in less than one.

Ten years ago it was a basket-case. Its economy was both sclerotic and erratic, its banks were bust, and inflation was dizzyingly high. It was forever calling in the International Monetary Fund for help (Turkey has run up some 18 IMF programmes, a near-record). Politics was also worryingly unstable. Even though the country was an established democracy, a string of weak and short-lived coalition governments alternated with the occasional coup staged by a powerful army.

As a member of NATO that was for many years on the front-line of the cold war, Turkey was at least a reliable ally of the West. But its regional influence in 2000 was almost as feeble as its economy. The Turks insisted that they wanted to join the European Union, but they had made almost no progress. Just over a decade ago they were humiliatingly overtaken in the race to be EU candidates by the ex-communist countries of eastern Europe.

Yet ten years on Turkey stands transformed. The economy suffered badly in the global recession of 2009, but over the previous five years it had been unusually vigorous, and it has bounced back so quickly that this year it is likely to grow faster than those of almost all other European countries.

Turkey has largely escaped the Mediterranean sickness that has taken hold in Greece, Spain, Portugal and even Italy. It is on the verge of acquiring an investment-grade credit rating, inflation is in single figures and the government has been able to dump the IMF.

The political situation has also greatly improved. These changes have not gone unnoticed. Turkey is now a vocal member of the G20 club of important economies. It held a temporary seat on the United Nations Security Council in 2009-10. It is knocking on the door of the BRICs club of emerging giants. Some forecasts suggest that during the next decade it will grow faster than any country bar India and China. Others predict it could become the world’s tenth-biggest economy by 2050.

That is partly because of Turkey’s favourable demographic outlook. The average age of its 72m people is only 29, against over 40 in the EU. By 2050 its population will have risen to almost 100m. If by then Turkey has managed to get into the EU, it will be its most populous member, far ahead of Germany, which will have a mere 70m people. (Bolds are mine) But there is more to Turkey than a flourishing economy and a young population. Whereas ten years ago it seemed a peripheral country, now it has become a pivotal one. Its geographical position, wedged between the European landmass, Russia and the Middle East, has given it a new strategic importance, especially in the energy-pipeline business. And its newly assertive foreign policy is making it count not just in neighbouring countries but as far afield as China and Africa.

turkey

Map from Economist special report on Turkey showing existing and new pipelines.

Turkey has an especially significant place in the Muslim world. Thanks to the legacy of Ataturk, it is a rare example among Muslim countries of a functioning secular democracy. Compared with much of the Arab world, it has been hugely successful in economic, diplomatic and military terms. A Turk currently serves as secretary-general of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference. And since his country’s diplomatic spat with Israel earlier this year Mr Erdogan has become a hero to the Arab street. Many Arabs compare him favourably with their own gerontocratic (and undemocratic) rulers.

Part of the report asked if Turkish entry into the EU is a fading European dream?
Turkey has had association agreement with the EEC for decades and many think of Turkey as part of Europe.

However because of Cyprus, domestic politics and the economic crisis that began in 2008 and hit Europe especially hard in 2009,  Turkey’s EU membership negotiations have all but ground to a halt.

However Turkey continues to make reforms that are good for the country and will help it qualify for membership.

Every day that passes Europe needs Turkey more and Turkey needs Europe less so Turkey’s EU aspirations may be diminished not because it cannot join but chooses not to. Turkey has begun entry negotiations and no country that has begun has not eventually been offered membership.  The process can be cumbersome however.

Britain’s application was turned down twice.  Spain took nine years to become a member and Norway was twice offered membership, before accepting.
Eventual membership is likely to be another boost to Turkey’s economy. 
The economy is currently getting a boost from sounder economic management as well.

Turkey learned from its economic meltdown in 2000-01. GDP shrank by almost 6%, the lira collapsed, most of the banks had to be rescued. The IMF had to provide support.

This left Turkey better prepared than many countries when the 2008-2009 recessions kicked in.

Despite the global economic downturn, Turkey’s GDP grew an average of 6% from 2002 to 2006 before the recession.  In inflation is down to 9%. Public debt is below 50% of GDP.

Turkey’s economy is among the OECD’d  fastest-growing and is similar to the fast rising BRICs. Turkey’s economic growth county run third behind only China and India.

Turkish business has been among the leaders to recover from the recession in construction, furniture, textiles, food-processing and car making.

Turkey is now the world’s biggest cement exporter and second-biggest jewellery exporter. Its construction order book is surpassed only by China’s. It is Europe’s leading maker of televisions and DVD players and its third-biggest maker of motor vehicles.

These are risky times and risk management is more important than before.  Part of risk management is getting better premiums such as those available in emerging markets and especially turkey.

The Istanbul Stock Market has risen dramtically.  Yet Keppler still views this as one of nine equally weighted good value markets.  Plus with its young population and growth potential, long term investments in Turkey make good sense.

Learn about how to invest in Turkey and Brazil with Jyske.

US investors contact Thomas Fischer at JGAM at fischer@jgam.com

Non US investors contact Rene Mathys at JBPB at mathys@jbpb.dk

See a win win export opportunity in Ecuador.

Gary

Learn more about investing in emerging markets… especially Brazil and Turkey, Taiwan, Thailand… plus Singapore in my $49 report “Running Risk- How to Invest in Risky Times”

Order my $79 report “Borrow Low Deposit High” and Get Running Risk Free.  Save $49
Enroll in our Feb 11-12 International Investing Seminar and get both report above free… plus an online copy of our October seminar free immediately. Save $378.

Belong to the International Club

The Huge 2020 Risk

Here is a huge risk that could explode in 2020.

I hope I am wrong… but the numbers are clear.

According to Treasurydirect.com, (1) as of December 26, 2020 the total US public debt was 23 trillion and 845 billion dollars.

This is not a theoretical problem for the future.  This is not something that our children and grandchildren will have to deal with.  This is a problem in the here and now for you and me.

Rising interest rates create a massive problem for every American.

treasury direct

Look at how the interest costs alone have risen to over a half trillion dollars a year.

treasury direct

 

The bad news is that the (US federal debt) is getting bigger….harder to miss.  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected in 2010 (the debt then was a bit over 14 trillion) that, under law at that time, debt held by the public would exceed $16 trillion by 2020, reaching nearly 70 percent of GDP.

The $7 Trillion Error.

They sure goofed on that.  Here we are… only in 2020 and debt has shot past 23 trillion.

How could the CBO be so wrong? 

The CBO screwed up because they could never imagine that the Fed would push interest rates so low… and keep them there.  The interest rates are so low that the government has been able to borrow more than imagined and still afford the interest.

For example, US Federal government interest last year amounted to around $573 billion.  Yet in 2008 on debt of only $9 trillion +  the interest that year was $451 billion +.

Interest payments in 2017 were 27% higher than they were in 2008.  Yet the debt is over 250% higher.  

Very low interest rates have helped the government borrow.  Low interest has also helped the US stocks reach all time high prices.

The government will resist raising rates because it will ruin their budget, cause a collapse of the stock markets and destroy the US dollar.

Rising interest rates, will create an almost unimaginable debt crisis.  If government interest doubles it is like the $23+ trillion national debt  rising to 46 trillion!  Unless there are some huge tax increase the interest payments are not sustainable.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife, Merri and I, have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.

Let me share the basics of this data and how we can be of help through 2020.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.

Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life through 2020 and beyond.

A falling US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but also brings a window of huge profit as I explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average passed a record high, the U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

The double shock of money fleeing Wall Street and US debt skyrocketing, will destroy the purchasing power of the greenback.

Go to the store even now.  Statistics say inflation is low, but buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.  Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.

Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?

What can we do?

Gain a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I will celebrate our 50th year of global living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Global micro business income.

#2:  Low cost, natural health.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, investments that take little time or cost to buy and hold… so you can focus on earning more instead

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on better, easier investing.

28 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

Join us for all of 2020 NOW.

The three disciplines, earning, health and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three natural health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However you’ll receive this free as club member and save $59.85.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to you as a club member free.  You save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $2299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Platinum Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

Now there is a new distortion ready to ripen in the year ahead.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Platinum Dip 2019”.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged precious metal speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Platinum Dip 2018” offers enormous profit potential in 2018.

The report “Platinum Dip 2019” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Platinum Dip 2019”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: A year’s follow up subscription to the Purposeful investing course… Plus more.

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons 2019 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 

 

 

Good Value Emerging Stock Markets


Emerging stock markets have offered better value than major markets for over a decade.

However, there are good value and bad value emerging markets.

Emerging markets are growing much faster than major markets.

This fact has created great opportunity over the past four decades.  Emerging stock markets have risen about twice as fast as stock markets in mature economies with very little extra volatility or downside.

Overall, emerging markets still offer better potential than mature markets, but one must choose the correct markets with care… because there is always something we do not know… especially in emerging markets.

This is why seeking value is so important. Value is the harmonious aspect of existence that wishes to fill every void.  Value is the ecstasy that harmonizes away the agony of imbalance.  Value means you are buying what is NOT in demand at a price lower than the object’s or share’s worth.

This is why once a quarter we look at an emerging equity market value analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new subscriber learn about Keppler Asset management here.

Keppler’s latest analysis this October says:

After their setback in the second quarter 2010, Emerging Markets equities resumed their recent uptrend, which started in March 2009.

In the third quarter 2010, the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index (December 1988 = 100) gained 12.8 % in local currencies, 18 % in US dollars and 5.9 % in Euros.

Year to date, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up 7.9 % in local currencies, 10.8 % in US dollars and 16.4 % in Euros.

Of the three regional indices, Asia was up 12.1 %, Europe Middle East and Africa (EMEA) advanced 13.3 % and Latin America gained 14.1 % last quarter.

In the last nine months ending in September 2010, the three regional indices gained 8.7 %, 9.4 % and 4.6 %, respectively. Performance numbers are in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

Twenty markets advanced and one market declined in the third quarter. Peru (+24.9 %), Colombia (+24.3 %) and  Thailand (+24 %) performed best.

Morocco (-0.9 %), the Czech Republic (+0.5 %) and Mexico (+8.4 %) came in last.

Compared with their levels at the beginning of the year, twenty markets likewise were higher and one market declined.

The biggest winners this year have been Thailand (+33.9 %), Colombia (+33.4 %) and the Philippines (+31.9 %).

The Czech Republic (-1.3 %), Brazil (+0.1 %) and Taiwan (+1.4 %) have performed worst year-to-date.

There has been no change in our performance ratings last quarter. The Top Value Model Portfolio contains the nine national MSCI markets:

Brazil,

the Czech Republic,

Egypt,

Hungary,

Poland,

Russia,

Taiwan,

Thailand,

Turkey at equal weights.

According to our performance ratings, a combination of these markets offers the highest  expectation of risk-adjusted returns.

SELL CANDIDATES (Low Value)   Chile            India           Indonesia       Korea.

NEUTRALLY RATED MARKETS China           Colombia      Malaysia      Mexico         Morocco      Peru    Philippines     South Africa.

Selecting good value stock markets is the first step in selecting good equity investments. You can find some extraordinary shares in any markets but you increase your odds when you look in markets that offer good value.

Gary

Warning!  I recommended investing in Turkey shares last July and that market has skyrocketed since (See my recommendation at International Investments in Turkey)

An October 25, Economist article says:  Economist warns investors about Turkish stock market

Investors can still make money from the İstanbul Stock Exchange but they, especially small investors, must be cautious of a bubble in the market, a senior economist warned on Monday.

Over the past couple of weeks, the İstanbul Stock Exchange had been rising to record high levels, Nurhan Toğuç, chief economist of Ata Investment, recalled.”We see a bubble at these levels in emerging markets. People can still make money but small investors must be very careful,” Toğuç said.

See how and why I have been investing in Turkey shares in my two reports on how to find value here.

Belong to the International Club

The Huge 2020 Risk

Here is a huge risk that could explode in 2020.

I hope I am wrong… but the numbers are clear.

According to Treasurydirect.com, (1) as of December 26, 2020 the total US public debt was 23 trillion and 845 billion dollars.

This is not a theoretical problem for the future.  This is not something that our children and grandchildren will have to deal with.  This is a problem in the here and now for you and me.

Rising interest rates create a massive problem for every American.

treasury direct

Look at how the interest costs alone have risen to over a half trillion dollars a year.

treasury direct

 

The bad news is that the (US federal debt) is getting bigger….harder to miss.  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected in 2010 (the debt then was a bit over 14 trillion) that, under law at that time, debt held by the public would exceed $16 trillion by 2020, reaching nearly 70 percent of GDP.

The $7 Trillion Error.

They sure goofed on that.  Here we are… only in 2020 and debt has shot past 23 trillion.

How could the CBO be so wrong? 

The CBO screwed up because they could never imagine that the Fed would push interest rates so low… and keep them there.  The interest rates are so low that the government has been able to borrow more than imagined and still afford the interest.

For example, US Federal government interest last year amounted to around $573 billion.  Yet in 2008 on debt of only $9 trillion +  the interest that year was $451 billion +.

Interest payments in 2017 were 27% higher than they were in 2008.  Yet the debt is over 250% higher.  

Very low interest rates have helped the government borrow.  Low interest has also helped the US stocks reach all time high prices.

The government will resist raising rates because it will ruin their budget, cause a collapse of the stock markets and destroy the US dollar.

Rising interest rates, will create an almost unimaginable debt crisis.  If government interest doubles it is like the $23+ trillion national debt  rising to 46 trillion!  Unless there are some huge tax increase the interest payments are not sustainable.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife, Merri and I, have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.

Let me share the basics of this data and how we can be of help through 2020.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.

Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life through 2020 and beyond.

A falling US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but also brings a window of huge profit as I explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average passed a record high, the U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

The double shock of money fleeing Wall Street and US debt skyrocketing, will destroy the purchasing power of the greenback.

Go to the store even now.  Statistics say inflation is low, but buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.  Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.

Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?

What can we do?

Gain a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I will celebrate our 50th year of global living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Global micro business income.

#2:  Low cost, natural health.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, investments that take little time or cost to buy and hold… so you can focus on earning more instead

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on better, easier investing.

28 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

Join us for all of 2020 NOW.

The three disciplines, earning, health and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three natural health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However you’ll receive this free as club member and save $59.85.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to you as a club member free.  You save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $2299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Platinum Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

Now there is a new distortion ready to ripen in the year ahead.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Platinum Dip 2019”.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged precious metal speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Platinum Dip 2018” offers enormous profit potential in 2018.

The report “Platinum Dip 2019” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Platinum Dip 2019”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: A year’s follow up subscription to the Purposeful investing course… Plus more.

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons 2019 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 

 

 


International Value Markets


Here is an update on international value markets.

The global economy is in tension as the US and Western European economies battle between inflation and deflation.

Who will win out?  Will costs rise or will they fall?  Whichever way events emerge, the best way to protect against loss is by always seeking value.

Value holds a special place for investors and business people… local or global because spotting value is another way of finding distortions.  Distortions are vacuums and nature abhors a vacuum.  Imbalances will always correct themselves. To have success in investing or business… one simply has to spot good value.

Understanding value is the tricky part.

This is why once a quarter we look at a major equity market valuation analysis by Michael Keppler.

If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.

Here are Keppler’s Comments on Major Market Value for this quarter.

After the first correction since March 2009 in the second quarter 2010, Global equities have resumed their upward trend in the third quarter.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) advanced 9.3 % in local currencies, 13.8 % in US dollars and 2.1 % in Euros.

Year to date, the MSCI World Index gained 1.6 % in local currencies, 2.6 % in US dollars and 7.8 % in Euros.

The Euro had a strong comeback in the third quarter. It soared to 1.3652 versus the US dollar, up 11.5 % from its end-of-June level but still 4.8 % shy of 1.4348 — the level at which it stood at the end of 2009.

Twenty-two markets advanced in the third quarter and two markets declined.

Hong Kong (+21.5 %), Norway  (+16.5 %) and Austria (+15.1 %) performed best.

Ireland (-13.5 %), Japan (-0.1 %) and Switzerland (+2.6 %) came in at the bottom.

Year-to-date, thirteen markets are up and eleven markets are down.

The best performing markets in the first nine months of 2010 were Denmark (+28.5 %), Hong Kong (+17.7 %) and Sweden (+17.4 %).

Greece (-35.5 %), Ireland (-19.2 %) and Spain (-10.1 %) performed worst year-to-date.

Performance numbers are in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.

The Top Value Model Portfolio currently contains the following six “buy” rated countries at equal weights:

Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Singapore and the United Kingdom. Our current ratings suggest that a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted returns.

As the chart below indicates, our implicit three-to-five-year projection for the average annual gain of the Equally-Weighted World Index now stands at 14.1 % slightly below our estimate of 14.3 % published here three months ago in our “Summer 2010 Quarterly”.

Given the 9.2 % appreciation of the Equally Weighted World Index in the third quarter, it is remarkable that our return estimates did not come down more.  The reason is fundamentals  have been improving throughout the year. Compared with their end of 2009 levels — which may have marked the bottom of the cycle — the 12-month trailing earnings and cash flows for the average equity market covered here are up 63.5 % and 24.7 %, respectively. In addition, the low interest rate environment continues to make stocks look  attractive.

keppler-chart

Keppler also shows major markets which he believes to be least statistically likely to appreciate.

SELL CANDIDATES

Belgium

Canada

Denmark

Hong Kong

Sweden

Switzerland

U.S.A.

NEUTRALLY RATED MARKETS

Australia

Finland

Greece

Ireland

Israel

Japan

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Portugal

Spain

Through good times and bad… through inflation… deflation and steady economies value rises above all.  We can never know for sure what will happen next… but we can know that when we find value our chances of a good return rise.

On the subject of value see news about real estate investing by one of the richest men in Ecuador here.

mindo

Gary

Learn about my two reports on how to find value here.

Belong to the International Club

The Huge 2020 Risk

Here is a huge risk that could explode in 2020.

I hope I am wrong… but the numbers are clear.

According to Treasurydirect.com, (1) as of December 26, 2020 the total US public debt was 23 trillion and 845 billion dollars.

This is not a theoretical problem for the future.  This is not something that our children and grandchildren will have to deal with.  This is a problem in the here and now for you and me.

Rising interest rates create a massive problem for every American.

treasury direct

Look at how the interest costs alone have risen to over a half trillion dollars a year.

treasury direct

 

The bad news is that the (US federal debt) is getting bigger….harder to miss.  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected in 2010 (the debt then was a bit over 14 trillion) that, under law at that time, debt held by the public would exceed $16 trillion by 2020, reaching nearly 70 percent of GDP.

The $7 Trillion Error.

They sure goofed on that.  Here we are… only in 2020 and debt has shot past 23 trillion.

How could the CBO be so wrong? 

The CBO screwed up because they could never imagine that the Fed would push interest rates so low… and keep them there.  The interest rates are so low that the government has been able to borrow more than imagined and still afford the interest.

For example, US Federal government interest last year amounted to around $573 billion.  Yet in 2008 on debt of only $9 trillion +  the interest that year was $451 billion +.

Interest payments in 2017 were 27% higher than they were in 2008.  Yet the debt is over 250% higher.  

Very low interest rates have helped the government borrow.  Low interest has also helped the US stocks reach all time high prices.

The government will resist raising rates because it will ruin their budget, cause a collapse of the stock markets and destroy the US dollar.

Rising interest rates, will create an almost unimaginable debt crisis.  If government interest doubles it is like the $23+ trillion national debt  rising to 46 trillion!  Unless there are some huge tax increase the interest payments are not sustainable.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife, Merri and I, have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.

Let me share the basics of this data and how we can be of help through 2020.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.

Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life through 2020 and beyond.

A falling US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but also brings a window of huge profit as I explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average passed a record high, the U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

The double shock of money fleeing Wall Street and US debt skyrocketing, will destroy the purchasing power of the greenback.

Go to the store even now.  Statistics say inflation is low, but buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.  Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.

Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?

What can we do?

Gain a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I will celebrate our 50th year of global living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Global micro business income.

#2:  Low cost, natural health.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, investments that take little time or cost to buy and hold… so you can focus on earning more instead

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on better, easier investing.

28 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

Join us for all of 2020 NOW.

The three disciplines, earning, health and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three natural health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However you’ll receive this free as club member and save $59.85.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to you as a club member free.  You save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $2299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Platinum Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

Now there is a new distortion ready to ripen in the year ahead.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Platinum Dip 2019”.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged precious metal speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Platinum Dip 2018” offers enormous profit potential in 2018.

The report “Platinum Dip 2019” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Platinum Dip 2019”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: A year’s follow up subscription to the Purposeful investing course… Plus more.

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons 2019 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 

 

 

Trading Down Part VI


Our seven part “trading down” series is looking at 11 reasons why the Unites States of America may see yet another boom in the era ahead.

Plus we’ll see that the same forces are also good for Ecuador real estate so we are viewing an Ecuador property in each message.  We’ll look at property in…

vilcabamba-real-estate

Vilcabamba.

First… back to the USA.  In the early 1990s many economist (yours truly included) were predicting the upcoming bankruptcy of America because of its wanton spending… borrowing and nearly 6 trillion dollars of national debt.

It didn’t happen. The greatest economic boom in the history of mankind… led by the United States took place.  Americans became so much richer that the rising taxes they paid actually created a government revenue surplus by the late 1990s.

Yes the government increased spending instead of reducing debt.  Yes times in the US are very different now.  Yes America has done some really… really stupid things from an economic point of view… creating a vastly expensive war in Iraq and much more. Yes there are problems with Social Security… with illegal immigration… with banks… big business… health care…. excessive government  intervention in our lives and much, much more.

So where are there not problems?

Often it is too easy to throw the baby out with the bath water.  Focusing only on the US problems and weaknesses while and ignoring its strengths does not give a balance… nor intelligent view.

I am one of the least traditionally American people one can imagine and have since the 1960s have been harping… “invest globally”…  “be a one man multi national”…  “bet against the US dollar”.

So why the change?

There is no change. My message has always been… “be global including the USA. Diversify around the world.”  The US has been one of my choices for business, investing and living for years.  I have continued to bet against the US dollar for most of that time, even when positive about the US.

One of my neighbors in Honk Kong in the 1960s was Mark Mobias who went on to fame as a great international investor.    He went to work with the late John Templeton and created some of the first international investment mutual funds and international investments ex USA mutual funds.

The ex USA funds were for those who already had US investments… not as investments to avoid the US.

Now another huge boom is taking place.  Trading down globally and increased globalization are almost certain.  The numbers are compelling…. billions of new middle class… but poorer middle class customers are on their way.

We have been looking at 11 reasons why the US may do well with this trading down.  Hence this series.

Message five in the series looked at many of the natural resources the US has.

Here we look at one of the most important resources in the USA the tenth reason is that Americans work more and are industrious

When I am not reading or writing…

gary-scott

I am always looking for something to do.  I love to work… as many Americans do.

gary-scott

As countries emerge… labor habits evolve. Usually one sign of a growing middle class is reduced work time.

In the USA this has not been so much the case.  Because America is a nation of immigrants there is always an emerging nation within this US… that keeps the population energetic and working.

In recent decades increased social benefits have hindered this energy but as impossible pension and welfare system breakdown this energy is returning.

Data from the United Nations  showing the average hours worked show the USA #3 behind only Japan and Australia.

Rank       Countries      Amount
# 1       Australia:     1,814 hours
# 2       Japan:     1,801 hours
# 3       United States:     1,792 hours
# 4       Canada:     1,718 hours
# 5       United Kingdom:     1,673 hours
# 6       Italy:     1,591 hours
# 7       Sweden:     1,564 hours
# 8       France:     1,453 hours
# 9       Norway:     1,337 hours
Weighted average:     1,638.1 hours

The same data base showing minimal paid vacation is also right at the top.

Argentina 14 days 
- Australia 28 days – Austria 35 days -
Bahamas  14 days 
- Belgium 20 days
Brazil – 30 days – Bulgaria 20 days – 
Canada  10 
days – Chile 15 
- China  Not required
  – Colombia  14 days – Costa Rica 14 days – 
Croatia  18 days – 
Czech Republic 28 days – 
Denmark  42 days  
Ecuador 14 days
 – Finland 35 days – 
France 49 days 
- Germany  28 days – 
Hong Kong  7 days
 – Hungary 20 days
 – Ireland     20 days
 – Israel  14 days
 – Italy 20 days – 
Japan 18 days – 
Korea, South  10 days – 
Latvia   28 days -
Mexico     7 days
  – Netherlands  28 days
 – New Zealand 28 days  – 
Norway  25  days – 
Paraguay 14 days – 
Peru     14 days
  Poland  20 days
 – Puerto Rico  15 days
 – Romania  20  days – 
Saudi Arabia 15  days
  – Singapore     7 days
  – South Africa 21 days – 
Spain 30 days
 – Sweden 25-32 days – 
Switzerland  28 days – 
Taiwan  7 days
 – Tunisia  30 days
 – Turkey 12 days
 – Ukraine  24 days
 – United Kingdom 20
 days – United States     7-10 days  – Uruguay 14 days – 
Venezuela 15 days – 
Vietnam  10 days.

The Breakfast Meeting

Beyond hours… there is a “let’s get down to business” attitude that comes from a nation founded on a “no aristocracy concept” where people are judged by their lineage rather than their performance.   The best way I can describe this is with the breakfast meeting.

My business career at age 18 grew up around the breakfast meeting…. the idea of an early start… getting ahead… taking advantage of the freshness of the day.

I was 19, was going to university and selling life insurance at the same time so my manager used to have me and a couple of other young salesmen get together for breakfast to discuss what we were doing etc.

The idea stuck. When I moved to Hong Kong (also a “go gettum” place), I used the same technique with my salesmen.  There was  no reason to keep them away from their selling when we could  meet early.

Then I moved to London and worked in Europe….forget having breakfast meetings, it was almost impossible to have breakfast.  When I first moved to London in 1970 in all of London I could only find one place that opened early (actually stayed open all night)… The Cavendish Hotel on Jermyn Street.  Little good this knowing did me.. because no self respecting Englishman would have a breakfast meeting. They looked at me quite weirdly when I suggested this.

I have not worked in Europe for years and I suspect this attitude has changed… but my guess is there are still far fewer breakfast meetings there or in Europe than in the US.

My guess is that the United States is the leader of the breakfast meeting.  That’s a display of genuine enthusiasm, optimism and willingness to get down to business from the get go.  This is a valuable asset that does not show up in the balance sheet…but shows up in innovation and productivity.

I have come to believe that breakfast meetings are not such a good idea.  Multi-tasking brings each task to its lowest form…so neither the business nor the breakfast are appreciated as they should be.

However on the other hand… the entire idea of trading down will not be good for the world.  A vast part of industrialization has been about quantity over quality.

More… served faster at a lower price.

This has been the working model of the global economy for several hundred years.

Trading down may not be what is  best for the world long term… for the global morality or the international spirit.  Yet who can argue that a family in China with equal skills and the same willingness to work, should not have as much as a family with the same attributes in Germany or England or Ecuador or the USA?

That’s the crunch…  those two words… as muchstuff.

Trading down is most likely. The West has set the model.  TV has sold the world and this is a model that appeals mightily to the human psyche and works… as long as there are sufficient resources and plenty of space.

The global economy is based on expanding material desires and converting the utility of natural resources to fulfill our needs and those desires.

Trading down expands on this process of consumption.

As populations increase… affluence per person grows and natural resources wane, the conflict of material reality grows.   This conflict could create another US asset because America may be in a unique position to experience a paradigm shift.

#11: The USA Has the Potential for Numerous Paradigm Shifts

Education Potential

America obviously has some educational problems… however these are very much due to organization and philosophy… not facilities. The USA still has great potential for education and due to the recession teaching has come back as a very desirable profession. Recently a friend formerly in construction applied to start teaching again. He found that for every empty position there were over 100 applicants.

This much labor availability could cause the education system to sprint ahead!

Dis-Ease Potential From Gluttony

America has another great asset… experience in gluttony.  The US is the first nation where a majority of the population has been able to have so many material possessions that stuff becomes a burden rather than an asset.  The USA has been a leader in gluttony to the point where vast numbers have been able to ask…. “What’s this stuff all about?”

This realization that striving just to have more does not equate to happiness….  the learning that things do not create much joy for long, has created a vast pool of Americans who desire to shift from quantity to quality.

America’s adventure into the laws of diminishing returns has created  a vast pool of Americans bent on sustainability.  This is the wave of the future.

As mankind shifts from a conquering to nurturing mode, the US may have an edge in leading the way.

Potential Ease From Innocence

America’s system for starting a business is still one of the easiest in the world and finally we reach the matter of innocence.

Watch an American and then a European or British TV program or movie.  The US attitude is almost always optimistic, the European pessimistic.   Americans always get the good guys and American heroes almost always fight the establishment Dirty Harry style.

I have lived and worked in many parts of the world and the term the Ugly American was coined in the late 1950s because Americans in so many ways were so innocent.

They  were (and to a degree remain) assuming and believe that things will always get better if they work hard.

A big nation… really big… with vast resources… a pretty fair democracy…  labor mobility… and easy immigration… a melting pot of hard workers… backed by a strong financial system… dramatically reduced costs due to the falling dollar available right now at bargain prices and the majority still believe in the system.

Finally, America is still in relative terms a very young nation.  Because of its immigration policy, it is not weighted down by the burden of a stagnant culture.  This will make the shift if it comes easier.

I know… as one of the original international citizens of the world, 40 years later…. Merri and I still feel it.  That is why we have increased the weighting of our portfolio in the USA.

This is the end of the excerpt from my newest emailed financial Report “Running Risk”.

Gary


Belong to the International Club

The Huge 2020 Risk

Here is a huge risk that could explode in 2020.

I hope I am wrong… but the numbers are clear.

According to Treasurydirect.com, (1) as of December 26, 2020 the total US public debt was 23 trillion and 845 billion dollars.

This is not a theoretical problem for the future.  This is not something that our children and grandchildren will have to deal with.  This is a problem in the here and now for you and me.

Rising interest rates create a massive problem for every American.

treasury direct

Look at how the interest costs alone have risen to over a half trillion dollars a year.

treasury direct

 

The bad news is that the (US federal debt) is getting bigger….harder to miss.  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected in 2010 (the debt then was a bit over 14 trillion) that, under law at that time, debt held by the public would exceed $16 trillion by 2020, reaching nearly 70 percent of GDP.

The $7 Trillion Error.

They sure goofed on that.  Here we are… only in 2020 and debt has shot past 23 trillion.

How could the CBO be so wrong? 

The CBO screwed up because they could never imagine that the Fed would push interest rates so low… and keep them there.  The interest rates are so low that the government has been able to borrow more than imagined and still afford the interest.

For example, US Federal government interest last year amounted to around $573 billion.  Yet in 2008 on debt of only $9 trillion +  the interest that year was $451 billion +.

Interest payments in 2017 were 27% higher than they were in 2008.  Yet the debt is over 250% higher.  

Very low interest rates have helped the government borrow.  Low interest has also helped the US stocks reach all time high prices.

The government will resist raising rates because it will ruin their budget, cause a collapse of the stock markets and destroy the US dollar.

Rising interest rates, will create an almost unimaginable debt crisis.  If government interest doubles it is like the $23+ trillion national debt  rising to 46 trillion!  Unless there are some huge tax increase the interest payments are not sustainable.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife, Merri and I, have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.

Let me share the basics of this data and how we can be of help through 2020.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.

Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life through 2020 and beyond.

A falling US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but also brings a window of huge profit as I explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average passed a record high, the U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

The double shock of money fleeing Wall Street and US debt skyrocketing, will destroy the purchasing power of the greenback.

Go to the store even now.  Statistics say inflation is low, but buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.  Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.

Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?

What can we do?

Gain a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I will celebrate our 50th year of global living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Global micro business income.

#2:  Low cost, natural health.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, investments that take little time or cost to buy and hold… so you can focus on earning more instead

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on better, easier investing.

28 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

Join us for all of 2020 NOW.

The three disciplines, earning, health and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three natural health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However you’ll receive this free as club member and save $59.85.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to you as a club member free.  You save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $2299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Platinum Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

Now there is a new distortion ready to ripen in the year ahead.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Platinum Dip 2019”.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged precious metal speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Platinum Dip 2018” offers enormous profit potential in 2018.

The report “Platinum Dip 2019” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Platinum Dip 2019”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: A year’s follow up subscription to the Purposeful investing course… Plus more.

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons 2019 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 

 

 

Today’s Ecuador properties are in Vilcabamba.

vilcabamba-real-estate

See the Vilcabama property here

International Investing 3% Solution


Here is the international investment three percent solution.

From 2005 into 2007 stock markets almost everywhere provided incredible returns. For example I work with Denmark ’s second largest bank. They are global equity experts and one of the portfolios (the Green Environment Portfolio) we created together rose 266.3% in one year. Another (The Emerging Market Portfolio) rose 114.2% in 2006 and 122.6% in 2007.

Yet in each case these portfolios also encountered gut wretching drops on their way up. That Green Portfolio for example in July 2007 dropped 103.22% in one month. The Emerging Market portfolio also moved like a yo-yo (see below).

In fact, over the last three years, despite impressive gains, there have been two periods of global market panic when almost every stock market dropped….like a stone….only to recover like a rocket ship.

The  in late 2007 we saw a huge wave of dumping shares.

This begged three questions.

#1: “Was this the big one?” Yes it was.

#2: “Will markets again recover…and when?”  They did.  In 2009 there was a huge recovery.

#3: This is an even more important question. “How can we as investors know what’s coming with at least a semblance of accuracy?”

The answer to this third question is  important because when a recovery comes, history suggests it will be sudden and dramatic.

You can see the recovery potential in the performance of the portfolios we created and tracked last year from November 2006 to October 2007. Equity markets collapsed in a month but recovered even faster. The portfolios utterly collapsed from July 20 to August 17. Then they rose between 40% and 128% in just two weeks.

Portfolios 2007July 20Aug 17Aug 31Oct 31
Swiss Samba45.84%15.19%26.42%53.32%
Emerging Market67.67%30.50%58.18%122.62%
Dollar Short40.31%9.14%20.29%48.19%
Dollar Neutral38.07%13.56%22.33%38.67%
Green214.15%110.93%155.84%266.30%

If the recent stock market dive is just another short term correction, some investors will make fortunes.

We saw stocks explode up from 2003 to 2007, then crash 50% in 2008 and rise almost as much in 2009.

stock-markets-index-chart

The gray line is the Morgan Stanley Global Stock Index… the green the performance of the State Street Global Advantage Fund.

Here are three simple facts can help you spot distortions in equity markets.

The first fact was confirmed by Alan Greenspan in his excellent book, “Age of Turbulence”.

“A major aspect of human nature-the level of human intelligence-has a great deal to do with how successful we are in gaining the sustenance for survival. As I point out at the end of this book, in economies with cutting-edge technologies, people, on average, seem unable to increase their output per hour at better than 3% percent a year over a protracted period. That is apparently the maximum rate at which human innovation can move standards of living forward. We are apparently not smarter to do better.”

That’s a huge fact. Overall we should expect the global economy to grow at about 3%.

This gives us a baseline for how much an investment should grow.

If an economy rises faster than 3%, it is distorted. During early stages of excessive growth, investors will be attracted. Shares will rise faster.

If the economy remains robust, shares become overbought. Then watch out! A correction will come.

This leads us to the second fact which is “all investments have risk”.

Rather than wasting time trying to avoid risk…which cannot be done, investors should look at three risk elements instead.

#1: How much risk is there in any particular investment?

#2: What perceptions doe the market have of the risk?

#3: What risk premium is due?

Bank accounts and government bonds, for example, are perceived as the safest investments (especially if government guaranteed). A look at their long term history shows that they pay about 3%. So if a bank account or government bond pays less…in the long term it’s bad. If it pays more…that’s better. Yet the idea is that bank accounts will not really make money. They will just keep up with growth…at 3%.

To get real growth requires taking risk. If an investment appears to be less safe it will pay more than 3%. This is called a risk premium.

Bonds pay more than bank accounts because they are perceived to be less safe. Stocks pay more than bonds because they are perceived even riskier. Emerging market stocks pay more than major market stocks. Emerging market bonds pay more than major markets bonds.

Over the long run, bonds issued in countries and currencies perceived to be stable pay 5% to 7%.

Stocks in major countries should pay 7% to 10% annual return in the stock market as a function of global growth, long term earnings growth plus risk premium (above bank accounts and bonds).

To attain higher growth than 7% to 10% investors must either increase risk, trust luck or spot distortions.

This is good because the market is almost always wrong. Most investors always trying to avoid risk. Most investors dump their wealth into investments that are perceived to be safe. This creates excessive demand and lowers value and actually makes the perception wrong.

Knowing this helps wise investors spot trends created by distortions.

Take, for example, the emerging market trend that has been created by an imbalance in labor costs around the world.

There are 6.6 billion people on this earth (give or take a few hundred million). 1 billion of these people live on a dollar a day. 2.5 billion live on two dollars a day. This means that there is a vast pool of cheap labor that can create goods at bargain prices. Mature economies are buying these goods at such an increased rate that 20% of all goods produced now cross a border, mostly from poor countries to the rich.

This means that emerging economies are growing much faster than 3%. They are catching up and this has caused major markets to slow down.

The global economy grew 5% last year…way ahead of 3%. Mature economies are growing only 2.3% each year on average….so there is a lot more growth in emerging economies. Thus emerging stock markets are growing faster than matured stock markets as well.

Yet emerging economies are perceived to have greater risk.

Smart investors have seen the value create by this distortion and have been cleaning up. They have been paid a huge risk premium when the risk has not been real!

The risk has been eliminated by low labor costs in poor countries and improvements in communications and transportation.

From 200o to 2010  average annual return on emerging markets was 19.81% compared to 10% for major markets.

The Emerging Markets longest down turn was six months and the biggest drop 55%.
For major markets the longest down was also six months and biggest drop 53%.
In 2009 the Morgan Stanley Major Market Index was up +32.5%. The 2009 Emerging Market Index up +79%. In the first none months of 2010  the Major Market is up + 1.3% and 2010  for Emerging Markets up 8.2%.
So there was no more risk in emerging markets than major market… plus the upside has been much better.

Finally we come to the third fact. Periods of high performance are followed by times of poor performance.

Emerging stock markets have outgrown major markets by about 7.5 times in the last seven years. Yet their economies are only growing about twice as fast.

Major markets have grown on average about 6.5% per annum for the past seven years….a little below what they should.

This means that it is probably time for emerging equity markets around the world to correct down and major markets up a bit.

Yet in times of global panic as we have recently seen, all markets tend to drop. This means that at this time major markets which may have been somewhat undervalued and should be rising are being pushed down by the drop of emerging markets (which should correct themselves).

Understanding these three facts leads us to know that a portfolio of global shares is the most likely bargain at this time.

This is why we have been recommending High Yield shares at this time. Most are major market equities that provide income and growth potential… plus make it easy to diversify.

There you have it. Understanding the 3% solution and what markets have done shows a distortion. Blue chips may be oversold more than emerging shares now.

In the long term, emerging shares will rise. Poor people remain and are willing and able to make goods that the rich will buy. This will push their economies higher faster than in major economies. Yet for now the three percent solution shows that major markets and high quality shares are more likely to recover from the current doldrums first.

Global investing has proven itself to be more profitable. Why not? Modern communications and transport coupled with a vast pool of low cost labor almost guarantees this fact. Now knowing three more facts based on the 3% solution can give you an edge when it come to taking advantage of the ups and downs in this global trend.

Study 54 High Yielding shares in my latest international investing report “Running Risk” $49.

Gary

Belong to the International Club

The Huge 2020 Risk

Here is a huge risk that could explode in 2020.

I hope I am wrong… but the numbers are clear.

According to Treasurydirect.com, (1) as of December 26, 2020 the total US public debt was 23 trillion and 845 billion dollars.

This is not a theoretical problem for the future.  This is not something that our children and grandchildren will have to deal with.  This is a problem in the here and now for you and me.

Rising interest rates create a massive problem for every American.

treasury direct

Look at how the interest costs alone have risen to over a half trillion dollars a year.

treasury direct

 

The bad news is that the (US federal debt) is getting bigger….harder to miss.  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected in 2010 (the debt then was a bit over 14 trillion) that, under law at that time, debt held by the public would exceed $16 trillion by 2020, reaching nearly 70 percent of GDP.

The $7 Trillion Error.

They sure goofed on that.  Here we are… only in 2020 and debt has shot past 23 trillion.

How could the CBO be so wrong? 

The CBO screwed up because they could never imagine that the Fed would push interest rates so low… and keep them there.  The interest rates are so low that the government has been able to borrow more than imagined and still afford the interest.

For example, US Federal government interest last year amounted to around $573 billion.  Yet in 2008 on debt of only $9 trillion +  the interest that year was $451 billion +.

Interest payments in 2017 were 27% higher than they were in 2008.  Yet the debt is over 250% higher.  

Very low interest rates have helped the government borrow.  Low interest has also helped the US stocks reach all time high prices.

The government will resist raising rates because it will ruin their budget, cause a collapse of the stock markets and destroy the US dollar.

Rising interest rates, will create an almost unimaginable debt crisis.  If government interest doubles it is like the $23+ trillion national debt  rising to 46 trillion!  Unless there are some huge tax increase the interest payments are not sustainable.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife, Merri and I, have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.

Let me share the basics of this data and how we can be of help through 2020.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.

Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life through 2020 and beyond.

A falling US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but also brings a window of huge profit as I explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average passed a record high, the U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

The double shock of money fleeing Wall Street and US debt skyrocketing, will destroy the purchasing power of the greenback.

Go to the store even now.  Statistics say inflation is low, but buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.  Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.

Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?

What can we do?

Gain a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I will celebrate our 50th year of global living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Global micro business income.

#2:  Low cost, natural health.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, investments that take little time or cost to buy and hold… so you can focus on earning more instead

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on better, easier investing.

28 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

Join us for all of 2020 NOW.

The three disciplines, earning, health and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three natural health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However you’ll receive this free as club member and save $59.85.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to you as a club member free.  You save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $2299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Platinum Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

Now there is a new distortion ready to ripen in the year ahead.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Platinum Dip 2019”.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged precious metal speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Platinum Dip 2018” offers enormous profit potential in 2018.

The report “Platinum Dip 2019” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Platinum Dip 2019”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: A year’s follow up subscription to the Purposeful investing course… Plus more.

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons 2019 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 

 

 

A Millionaire Gift


Here are three millionaire gifts.

gold-leaves

Today is my 64th birthday.  This is a shot I took from our meditation room this morning.

Years ago Merri started a family tradition… on one’s birthday we give gifts to others… it’s greater to give than receive… so here are three gifts for you.  The picture above is one of the gifts.

See why below.

We have been helping our readers make millions for nearly 30 years.  One reader confirmed this when he wrote this letter to me: “Gary, I am a long time subscriber in various media, and while cleaning out my files today I found some old “Gary A. Scotts World Reports”.  In particular the April 1988 issue provided the info that made me over a million dollars.   Just wanted to say a belated  “thank you”  and please continue the excellent work.  Warm regards,”

The first gift is a millionaire habit taught to me by the Ecuadorian Taita Yatchak we lived with for years. We took him on many trips through the USA and one day he visited us in Florida. We met his plane at Ft. Myers Airport and as we passed a roadside rest stop on the way to Naples he said, “Stop here. I want to teach you a golden word for prosperity.”

He gave us this golden word that I pass on here to you. The word is Golden Orange.

He said, Watch the sunrise every day. Then whenever you can visualize this color intensely and think GOLDEN ORANGE.

gold-leaves

The leaf change is spectacular here in our North Carolina front yard this autumn.  Visualize this golden orange every morning.

The second gift is an investment tip.

My birthday tip to readers October 2007 was inspired when one reader wrote:    “Gary I want to set up a multi currency sandwich without risk. I do not need the fantastic returns and can do fine with just 20% per annum.”

Well, here’s what I wrote back then:  “20% per annum is more than a fantastic return. If you can attain this on a long term basis you are one of the best investment managers in the world. Keep in mind that though equity markets are efficient in the long run they are not effective short term due to human behavior.

“Please remember the following rules of thumb about investing: We should expect 7% to 10% annual return in the stock market as a function of global nominal GDP growth and long term earnings growth plus risk premium over bonds. Getting higher growth comes from increased risk or luck. We have increased risks through leverage at a time of strong market growth.

“We always like to put together top performing portfolios but our mission statement is to track portfolios and learn from them as they rise and fall.  Periods of high performance are followed by times of low returns.  We never know for sure when an upwards cycle will stall.  To give our readers a better perspective, this year we are reducing leverage.”

That advice saved readers who followed it millions.

This birthday 2010, my advice is the opposite.  Avoid safety. Sell seemingly, safe long term bonds. Borrow Dollars. Invest in High Yielding Shares.
Governments have borrowed too much. Times are not about to change either.

Until social-economic evolution changes the way government debase currencies, great opportunity will exist for the alert investor who embraces risk.

Governments everywhere control currencies and most use fractional reserve banking and/or debt financing or the printing machine that debases their currencies. This is not done equally between and this inequality in currency erosion creates parity and interest rate distortions.

Currencies often follow certain cycles and we can track these cycles to spot profits from currency changes.

The cycles consists of 3 phases.

Phase 1 is when the high interest rates attract capital, which cause the currency to appreciate. This pushes down imported inflation, and the inflationary pressure in the economy diminishes.

Phase 2 follows. As a result of the lower inflation, the Central Bank cuts interest rates, boosting domestic demand. This often leads to a demand for foreign products, and exports struggle with a stronger currency. The current account deteriorates, and the interest in the currency cools down. Often rates drop low enough so the currency can be borrowed to reinvest.  In Phase 2 it is a good time to borrow.

The final Phase 3 comes when fear of interest-rate hikes begins to develop or a local shock triggers risk aversion. Most loan positions are closed.

The government raises interest rates to cool the economy. Or maybe there are political problems, and investors fear that interest rates will have to rise. Phase 3 causes the local currency to depreciate markedly, which has an adverse effect on inflation and the Central Bank raises interest rates!

At some point, interest rates are raised so high the inflation situation improves as well as the external balances and investors return. The cycle then begins with Phase 1 all over again.

This may seem slightly complicated, so study this over the weekend and send me your questions and comments. We’ll answer them in the Saturday Q&A.

The way to enhance profits from international currency trends created by these phases takes three steps.

Step #1:  Spot countries and currencies which are ending Phase 3 and returning to or starting Phase 1.

Step #2:  Invest in the countries/currencies and keep the investment until the end of Phase 2.

Step #3:  Be out of a currency when Phase 3 begins.

Here is a really neat trick when watching the phases. When a country is in Phase 3, the situation in a country is at its gloomiest. This is the time when everyone is saying “Get out stay away”.  However, this is probably the time to get ready to invest!

When the situation is at its gloomiest, it may be the start of a new upturn so look for the following signals. These are signs that a good opportunity may be near.

* A local shock or interest rate hikes

* Carry positions are closed

* The currency depreciates

* Local Central Bank raises interest rates when inflation rises

Here is the total cycle of high interest currencies again:

* High interest rates attract capital

* The currency begins to appreciate

* Inflationary pressure diminishes

* Local interest rates are cut

* Inflation declines

* Capital inflow continues

* Domestic demand rises

* Current account deteriorates

* The strength of the currency declines

Be sure to send me your questions about this. I want every reader to understand the power and importance of the Borrow Low-Deposit High strategy so feel free to ask questions that I can answer to all.

Look for currency phases, spot trends and distortions so you can borrow low and deposit high or more. This process can make millions for you.

Your third gift is a $200 Ecuador banking gift free. Get it here.

Until next message, may every phase of your investing be good.

Gary

Join us for a seminar.

Here is what one delegate from a seminar shared:

Thank you. You two are both such wondrous creatures-so wise and nurturing. You have inspired us. We are rejuvenated. Merri is a magician. Her wizardry removed six pounds of avoirdupois from Olga and three pounds from me. Your course has made us “Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise.” We love you for it.

Belong to the International Club

The Huge 2020 Risk

Here is a huge risk that could explode in 2020.

I hope I am wrong… but the numbers are clear.

According to Treasurydirect.com, (1) as of December 26, 2020 the total US public debt was 23 trillion and 845 billion dollars.

This is not a theoretical problem for the future.  This is not something that our children and grandchildren will have to deal with.  This is a problem in the here and now for you and me.

Rising interest rates create a massive problem for every American.

treasury direct

Look at how the interest costs alone have risen to over a half trillion dollars a year.

treasury direct

 

The bad news is that the (US federal debt) is getting bigger….harder to miss.  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected in 2010 (the debt then was a bit over 14 trillion) that, under law at that time, debt held by the public would exceed $16 trillion by 2020, reaching nearly 70 percent of GDP.

The $7 Trillion Error.

They sure goofed on that.  Here we are… only in 2020 and debt has shot past 23 trillion.

How could the CBO be so wrong? 

The CBO screwed up because they could never imagine that the Fed would push interest rates so low… and keep them there.  The interest rates are so low that the government has been able to borrow more than imagined and still afford the interest.

For example, US Federal government interest last year amounted to around $573 billion.  Yet in 2008 on debt of only $9 trillion +  the interest that year was $451 billion +.

Interest payments in 2017 were 27% higher than they were in 2008.  Yet the debt is over 250% higher.  

Very low interest rates have helped the government borrow.  Low interest has also helped the US stocks reach all time high prices.

The government will resist raising rates because it will ruin their budget, cause a collapse of the stock markets and destroy the US dollar.

Rising interest rates, will create an almost unimaginable debt crisis.  If government interest doubles it is like the $23+ trillion national debt  rising to 46 trillion!  Unless there are some huge tax increase the interest payments are not sustainable.

Learn how to have more freedom and time, less stress, better health care, extra income, greater safety and profit in your savings despite America’s deficits, debt and currency risk.

Fortunately there are secrets that will allow a few to live much better, free of debt and worry despite the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.   My wife, Merri and I, have traveled, lived, worked and invested around the world for nearly 50 years to gain this information.

Let me share the basics of this data and how we can be of help through 2020.

The first fact behind this secret is that things are really good in the western world.  Despite many problems, we are surrounded by more abundance and greater opportunity than almost anyone has ever enjoyed, anywhere, ever.   To enjoy a fair share of this wealth, all we have to do is understand human nature and learn how to invest in the new economy, as it changes and becomes new, again and again.

Merri and I have made seven huge transitions in the 50 years.  Each has allowed us to always stay ahead of losses that the majority of Americans suffer.  We are in another transition right now and want to share why and what to do so you can stay ahead and live a richer, independent life through 2020 and beyond.

A falling US dollar is one of the greatest risks we have to our independence, safety, health, and wealth, but also brings a window of huge profit as I explain below.   Though the greenback has been strong for a number of years, its strength is in serious jeopardy.  The growing federal deficits increase the national debt and this with rising interest rates propels a growing debt service.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average passed a record high, the U.S. national debt passed the $20 trillion mark.

The problem is that the Dow will come back down.  National debt will not fall.

The double shock of money fleeing Wall Street and US debt skyrocketing, will destroy the purchasing power of the greenback.

Go to the store even now.  Statistics say inflation is low, but buy some bread or, heaven forbid, some fresh vegetables like peppers or fruit.   Look at the cost of your prescription or hospital bills.  Do something simple like have your car serviced at an auto dealer.  Look at the dollars you spend and you’ll see what I mean.

The loss of the dollar’s purchasing power erodes our independence, our freedom and our savings and wealth as well. 

At the same time, low interest rates by big banks and higher health care costs soak up the ever diminishing income and savings we have left.  According to a Gallup poll, the most unpopular three institutions in America are big corporations & Wall Street banks, HMOs and Congress.

Yet there is little we can do because these institutions are in control.

Over the last 50 years the average income for 90 percent of the American population fell.  Our health system is restricted by a Kafka-esque maze of legislation and insurance regulations that delay, frustrate, and thwart attempts by patients and doctors from proper medical care.  Big banks and corporations restrict our freedom of choice.  The business customer relationships are no longer transactions between free equals.

Banks can trap us in indebtedness at every age from student loans to mortgages to health care costs.  They pay almost nothing on our savings.  They hide unexpected fees and payments in complex and unreadable documents.  Banks and big corporations routinely conceal vital information in small print and then cheat.  Weak regulations and lax enforcement leave consumers with few ways to fight back.  Many of these businesses ranging from cable TV to phone and internet service to health insurance have virtual monopolies that along with deceptive marketing destroys any form of free market.

These same companies control the credit-scoring agencies so if  we don’t pay unfair fees, our credit scores will plunge and we could lose the ability to borrow money, rent an apartment, even to get a job.  Many consumers are forced to accept “arbitration clauses” in lieu of  legal rights.  The alternative is to lose banking, power, and communication services.

Big business has also usurped our privacy.  Internet companies sell our personal data.  Personal information is pulled from WiFi and iPhones track and store our movements.  The government can access this information, sometimes without subpoenas.  There’s a lot that we don’t know, often withheld under the guise of “National Security.”

The glow on Western democratic capitalism has dimmed… or so it seems.  The US, leading the way, is still a superpower with economic, innovation and military might, but the institutions that should serve the people have become flawed or broken.

America’s infrastructure is in shambles.  The nation’s bridges are crumbling, many water systems are filled with toxins, yet instead of spending more to fix this, we build more prisons.  The 2.2 million people currently in  jail is a 500 percent increase over the past thirty years.  60% of the inmates belong to ethnic groups.  Not just non-white ethnic groups are suffering.  Annual death rates are falling for every group except for middle-aged white Americans.  Death rates are rising among this group driven by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse, alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids.

America’s middle class is shrinking.  Nearly  half of America’s income goes to upper-income households now.  In 1970 only 29 percent went to this group.  How can we regain our freedom, our happiness and our well being in such a world?

What can we do?

Gain a better, freer life is to combine better health, higher income and greater savings for a happier, more resilient lifestyle. 

Merri and I will celebrate our 50th year of global living, working, investing and researching to find and share ideas on how to have simpler, low stress, healthier, more affluent lifestyles.  Our courses, reports and email messages look at ways to gain:

#1:  Global micro business income.

#2:  Low cost, natural health.

#3:  Safer, more profitable, investments that take little time or cost to buy and hold… so you can focus on earning more instead

Many readers use our services for just one of these three benefits.  They focus only on health or on earning more or on better, easier investing.

28 years ago Merri and I created the International Club as a way for readers to join us and be immersed in all three of these benefits.   The International Club is a year long learning program aimed at helping members earn worry free income, have better affordable good health and gain extra safety and profits with value investments.

Join us for all of 2020 NOW.

The three disciplines, earning, health and investing, work best when coordinated together.  Regretfully the attacks on our freedom are realities of life.  There is little we can do to change this big picture.  However we can change how we care for our health, how we earn and how we save so that we are among the few who live better despite the dollar’s fall.

We start with better lower cost health care.

Club membership begins by sharing ways to be free of the “Secret Hospital Charge Master”.   Just as governments hide truth behind “National Security”, big health care businesses hide medical truths behind “Charge masters”.  Most hospital charge masters are secret because big business does not want us to know how much hospital costs have risen.  Motivations beyond our good health, like corporate greed, want to keep us in the dark about health care cost.

Despite rising health care costs, a report from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that hospitals are the last place we want to be for good health.  One report shows that hospital-acquired infections alone kills 57% more Americans every year than all car accidents and falls put together.

Often, what patients catch in the hospital can be worse than what sent them there.  Governments and health care agencies agree  – antibiotic resistance is a “nightmare.”  An antibiotic-resistant bacteria may be spreading in more hospitals than patients know.  About one in every 25 hospitalized patients gets an infection and a report from the Journal of Patient Safety showed that medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the country.

Along with the risk of hospital acquired illness and medical errors, the second huge threat to our well being… is health care costs, especially at hospitals.  This is why charge masters are so often secret.  There are few risks to our wealth that are greater than a hospital stay.

I have created three natural health reports are about:

#1: Nutrition

#2: Purification

#3: Exercise

Each report is available for $19.95.  However you’ll receive this free as club member and save $59.85.

Club members also receive seven workshops and courses on how earn everywhere with at home micro businesses.  We call this our “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”.   The program contains a series of courses and reports that show ways to earn and be free. These courses and reports are:

  • “International Business Made EZ”
  • “Self Fulfilled – How to Write to Sell”
  • Video Workshop by our webmaster David Cross,
  • The entire weekend “Writer’s Camp” in MP3
  • The report “How to Raise Money Abroad”
  • Report and MP3 Workshop “How to Gain Added Success With Relaxed Concentration”
  • The course “Event-Full – How to Earn Conducting Seminars and Tours”

This program is offered at $299, but is available to you as a club member free.  You save $299 more.

Next, club members participate in an intensive program called the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  The purpose of Pi is finding value investments that increase safety and profit.  Learn Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing.

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  These destroyers of wealth can create a Behavior Gap, that causes investors to underperform in any market good or bad.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories from economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based mainly on good math that reveals the truth through financial news.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

There are seven layers of tactics in the Pi strategy.

Pi Tactic #1: Determine purpose and good value.

Pi Tactic #2: Diversify 70% to 80% of portfolio equally in good value developed markets.

Pi Tactic #3: Invest 20% to 30% equally in good value emerging markets.

Pi Tactic  #4:  Use trending algorithms to buy sell or hold these markets.

Pi Tactic  #5:  Add spice speculating with ideal conditions.

Pi Tactic  #6: Add spice speculating with leverage.

Pi Tactic  #7:  Add spice speculating with forex potential.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return

#7:  Market history

We combine the research of several brilliant mathematicians and money managers with my years of investing experience.

This is a complete and continual study of what to do about the movement of international major and emerging stock markets.  I want to share this study throughout the next year with you.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.  The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.  This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.  Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

The Pi subscription is normally $299 per annum but as a club member you receive Pi at no charge and save an additional $2299.

Profit from the US dollar’s fall.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

Club members receive a report about opportunity in the  current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but when you become a club member you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE.

Plus get the $39.99 report, “The Platinum Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80 and has remained near this level, compared to a range of the 230s only two years ago.

Now there is a new distortion ready to ripen in the year ahead.

These two events are a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I prepared a special report “Platinum Dip 2019”.   The report explains the exact conditions you need to make leveraged precious metal speculations that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons about speculating in precious metals gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in gold and silver.

The low price of silver offers special value now so I want to send you this report because the “Platinum Dip 2018” offers enormous profit potential in 2018.

The report “Platinum Dip 2019” sells for $39.95 but club members receive it free as well.

The $39.95 new “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere Report” is also free.

There is an incredible new economy that’s opening for those who know what to do.  There are great new opportunities and many of them offer enormous income potential but also work well in disaster scenarios.

There are are specific places where you can reduce your living expenses and easily increase your income.  Scientific research has shown that being in such places actually make you smarter and healthier.  Top this off with the fact that they provide tax benefits as well and you have to ask, “Where are these places?”.

Learn about these specific places.  More important learn what makes them special.  Discover seven freedom producing steps that you can use to find other similar places of opportunity.

The report includes a tax and career plan broken into four age groups, before you finish school, from age 25 to 50 – age 50-to 65 and what to do when you reach the age where tradition wants you to re-tire.  (Another clue-you do not need to retire and probably should not!)

The report is very specific because it describes what Merri and I, our children and even my sister and thousands of our readers have done and are doing, right now.

Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere focuses on a system that takes advantage of living in Smalltown USA, but earning locally and globally.

This report is available online for $39.99 but International Club members receive it free.

Save when you become a club member.

Join the International Club and receive:

#1: The $299 Personal investing Course (Pi).   Free.

#2: The $299 “Live Well and Free Anywhere Program”. Free.

#3: The $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More”. Free.

#4: The $39.99 report “Platinum Dip 2019”. Free

#5: The three $19.99 reports “Shamanic Natural Health”.  All three free.

#6: The $39.99 “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” report. Free.

#7: A year’s follow up subscription to the Purposeful investing course… Plus more.

Join the International Club for $349 and receive all the above online now, plus all reports, course updates and Pi lessons 2019 at no additional fee.

Click here to become a member at the discounted rate of $349

Gary 

 

 

Gain Extra Global Income


Many readers can learn how to gain extra global income with a micro business at our upcoming Super thinking + International Investing and Business Seminar.

This can be easy and can also be fun.

Business-Opportunities

Saturday Market at West Jefferson brought this truck load of giant pumpkins and this cute boy enjoying the spirit of the season.

Autumn has arrived in the Blue Ridge and the ways of earning extra income here are currently…

business-opportunity

very colorful.

Ashe County Farmers Market is…

business-opportunity

packed and we enjoy driving in and visiting with our friends, the farming people like…

business-opportunity

Stephen…

business-opportunity

Jeanne and…

business-opportunity

Ann Rose who has gone totally organic… plus the many other wonderful farmers and friend we meet there who are making extra income from their sales.

Everyone’s economic  future is threatened by the prospect of inflation created by massive global government spending.

Now government efforts to avoid a double dip recession are pushing interest rates to all time lows. Investors are avoiding risk.  Thus inflation can ruin the purchasing power of pensions, investments and savings…yet low interest rates and high risk in stock markets makes it hard to protect against the loss.

This is why it is good to gain extra income with a micro business.  Businesses always adjusts against inflation so business earnings can protect purchasing power.

Buying from all the markets in Ecuador and in Smalltown USA  reminds me of how easy it is to come up with business ideas with something like a pumpkin or squash.

For example… once when our son was ill in Ecuador… the shaman cut up a squash and had him sleep with the pieces under his arm.  I am not sure why but it sure worked!  The business idea?  A book of obscure healing ideas from the shamans… or a tour.

The craftsmen of Ecuador make many musical instruments from pumpkins squash and gourds.  The business idea?  Export them.

Or export these pumpkins with intricate carvings… or create classes so people can come learn how to carve like this.

ecuador earning
One Ecuadorian in Otavalo has imported American pie!
ecuador-pie-shop

Wherever you live… in Ecuador…. Smalltown USA…. or anywhere, there are three tips to having extra income with a micro business success that can help you fight inflation and enhance your lifestyle.

Micro Business Tip #1: Get started!

Micro Business Tip #2: Practice by doing.

Micro Business Tip #3: Use the business evolutionary cycle.

We’ll look at ways to get a micro business started in a moment. First let’s talk about the importance practice by doing.

Malcolm Gladwell has written three must read books for anyone who has a business or invests…. “The Tipping Point”, “Blink” and “Outliers: The Story of Success”.

micro-business-idea

Malcom Gladwell speaking on Ted.

In the Outliers, Gladwell presents a strong argument that if you want to really succeed you have to put in 10,000 hours before your best success will come.

He says that practice makes perfect.

Gladwell acknowledges the importance of ability, work ethic, luck, a strong support base and even being born in the right year as being important parts of success.

Yet he points out that it is “learning through action” that hones one’s abilities and skills… and develops the contacts, insights etc. needed to be a top performer.

Gladwell uses the Beatles’ rise to fame in the 1960s as one example.  The Beatles performed live in Hamburg, Germany over 1,200 times from 1960 to 1964, amassing more than 10,000 hours of playing time, shaping their talent, so they were in the right place at the right time sounding like no one else when the rock boom exploded. These hours were their making.

Bill Gates is another example.  Outliers shows how Gates gained special access to a high school computer in 1968 at the age of 13, and spent 10,000 hours programming on it placing him in a position to take advantage of the programming boom and of course has become one of the world’s richest men.

“No one – not rock stars, not professional athletes, not software billionaires and not even geniuses – ever makes it alone,” writes Gladwell in Outliers: The Story of Success.

The third secret… The Business Evolutionary Cycle makes it possible for a business to continually adapt  to change as it unfolds.  See a link to the cycle below.

The first step… getting started seems to be the hardest part of all.

To begin start small with a smart business plan blended with good marketing supported by technology.

This is what Merri and I do and below I have provided some proof that we really do know what we are talking about as technology exists today.

Merri, our webmaster, David Cross, and I have been frontiering a new business concept that is the step beyond broadband.  We call it “Narrowband.”

Narrowband is about starting small and then staying focused and remaining small (but more and more profitable).   A Narrowband business uses the internet to create and unite a small band of readers with common ideals, needs and interests.

Our goal is to unite our customers with cohesion and authenticity.

Building a small Narrowband business requires three steps:

#1: Attract a steady flow of interested readers.

#2: Use a set pattern of information to weed out readers who really do not have a common need, ideal or interest.

#3: Develop an intimate relationship with the readers that are not weeded out and do have a common need, ideal or interest.

This is reflected in several ways the first being quality of communication.
Here are some reports from out emailing system as of July 29, 2012.  We have two main lists…. www.garyascott.com and www.Ecuadorliving.com that compose 31,926 readers.

Our system aims to assure that we send our daily message only to the readers most likely to benefit from what we share.

This high rating is attained by continually weeding out readers.

Sending away customers? Am I kidding?

I am not.  Bigger is not better and this is no joke.  We are selective about who are readers are and have a number of check points they have to pass through to remain readers. New readers who sign on especially have to pass certain litmus tests to remain on our list.

Now let’s look at the steady growth. Here is our list growth record for 21-12.  Each month the list grows steadily as it has for years.  If growth is too fast in a small business the consequences can spell disaster.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/7669255624/in/photostream
The next important point… is how we make these lists grow on a profitable basis.

First, because we do not push and because we are not trying to be huge, we do not have to compete in expensive ways.  We use referrals…. Google rankings and low cost Pay Per Click.
Google Rankings

Here is a list from our home page of the titles of the  last ten messages we have emailed our readers and posted at our site.
micro-business-idea
Let’s see how they rank at Google:

* Phrase for a Google Search:  “Household Toxin Report”
Google ranking #1.
high-google-ranking
* Phrase for a Google Search:  “Wisdom of the Masses”.
Google ranking #11.
micro-business-idea
* Phrase for a Google Search:  “International Investing Update”.
Google ranking #1 and #2.
micro-business-idea
* Phrase for a Google Search:  “October Investment Risk”.
Google ranking #4.
micro-business-idea
* Phrase for a Google Search:  “Micro Business Internet Income.
Google ranking #1 and #2.
micro-internet-idea
* Phrase for a Google Search:  “Ecuador First Class Home for Sale”.
Google ranking #1 and #2.  Plus note on the right hand side of the Google page that our Pay Per Click sponsored ad also kicked in here ($39,000 mountain view). This ad was #1 at the phrase Ecuador Home for sale also.

pay per click success

Seven of the ten titles of my last ten messages ranked in the top 12 at Google.
In other words we know how to make the search engines work on a micro business’s behalf… right now.

We would love to help you get started in your own micro business with the help of the internet in one (or all) of three ways.

First… we offer an emailed course The Tangled Web – How to Have Your Own Internet Business.
See details of this course here.

Second… We offer our International Club  so you can attend all our seminars for a year FREE to learn how to use super thinking and invest and use super thinking to set up your own business.

Third… Over a third of the sessions in our October 5 -6-7 seminar in North Carolina is on how to create your own global business with the help of the internet.  Get course details here.

Whether you use our services or not, a global business that brings extra income can help you overcome the inflation that the current government spending will bring.

Gary

Investments Without Debt


Here are some investments without debt.

Debt.

Merri and I abhor debt.

We always have some fixer upper or improvement project going on.  We just finished converting an office building in Ecuador into three apartments.

In Florida right now… we are converting half of a large three car garage into an apartment.

Here at the farm we are adding a…

farm-work

sauna meditation room (on the right) that…

farm-work

looks into this forest canopy.

farm-work

We are building this with sustainable wood… mostly fallen trees that we reclaimed from the land.

This white oak from an old dead tree will become a great natural floor.

farm-work

This is very satisfying… to drag the logs out… mill and prepare this wood.

Here is the financial key in our minds.

We make all our improvements from cash flow. We do not have a penny of debt.  If we cannot pay for an improvement from our pockets… we do not make it.  We just wait.

I do borrow low to invest high… but this is always liquid… a form of leverage where banks pay me to borrow… not vice versa and the loan can always be paid off by the investment (unless there is a forex loss).

We never borrow to spend and we never borrow more to invest than we can afford to lose.

When it comes to investing in shares, I like companies that do not have too much debt so I was impressed by an article entitled  “15 Companies with Zero Debt”  by Giovanny Moreano & Paul Toscano.

The article said:  Throughout the financial crisis, large debt loads weighed on company balance sheets and had serious implications for the firms that let their borrowing get out of control.

Other companies, however, have a history of operating with low debt levels, and many choose to issue no debt at all. Instead of debt, these companies hold cash and liquid investments in order to make acquisitions, investments and to run daily operations.

Although too much debt can quickly turn into a problem, zero debt does not always translate to a rising stock price, as you can see from the historical data provided in the following pages. Regardless, some companies have been successful in turning their zero-debt situation into a very favorable operating model.

With data from Capital IQ drawn from the most recent quarterly statements across the S&P 500, here are 15 companies that report having no debt on their balance sheets.

Debt allows companies to grow faster in good time… but debt can be an investment’s ruin in the bad. History suggests that it will be a couple of more years before equity markets really begin to pick up and maybe seven years before we see the next boom.  Thus companies without debt have more of their hand on power and may be a good place to store purchasing power now.

Here is the list from the article mentioned above that you could use as a place to start looking for your next stock investment.

1. Google (GOOG)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $30.059 billion
YTD stock price performance: -22.32%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, +50.17% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -55.51% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +101.52% share price

2. Apple (AAPL)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $23.155 billion
YTD stock price performance: 19.53%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, +133.47% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -56.91% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +146.90% share price

3. eBay (EBAY)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $4.528 billion
YTD stock price performance: -11.64%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $200m total debt, +10.4% share price
2008: $1b total debt, -57.94% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +68.55% share price

4. Forest Laboratories (FRX)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $3.322 billion
YTD stock price performance: -12.49%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, -27.96% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -30.12% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +26.07% share price

5. Celgene Corp (CELG)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $2.952 billion
YTD stock price performance: -6.50%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $219m total debt, -19.68% share price
2008: $26m total debt, +19.63% share price
2009: $25m total debt, +0.72% share price

6. Texas Instruments (TXN)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $2.305 billion
YTD stock price performance: -4.95%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, +15.97% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -53.53% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +67.91% share price

7. Gap Inc. (GPS)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $2.481 billion
YTD stock price performance: -11.79%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $513 million total debt, +9.13% share price
2008: $188 million total debt, -37.08% share price
2009: $50 total debt, +56.46% share price

8. Juniper Networks (JNPR)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $2.317 billion
YTD stock price performance: +0.07%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $400 million total debt, +75.29% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -47.26% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +52.31% share price

9. Broadcom Corp (BRCM)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $2.044 billion
YTD stock price performance: +17.32%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, -19.10% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -35.08% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +85.44% share price

10. Electronic Arts (ERTS)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $1.996 billion
YTD stock price performance: -13.46%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, +15.98% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -72.54% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +10.66% share price

11. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $1.644 billion
YTD stock price performance: -2.56%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, -22.86% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -13.51% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +51.89% share price

12. Cognizant Tech Solutions (CTSH)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $1.433 billion YTD stock price performance: +20.14%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, -12.03% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -46.79% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +151% share price

13. Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $1.059 billion
YTD stock price performance: +4.76%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, +22.99% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -60.51% share price
2009: $52m total debt, +29.31% share price

14. Expeditors Int’l of Washington (EXPD)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $1.042 billion
YTD stock price performance: +14.84%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, +10.32% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -25.54% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +4.51% share price

15. Novell Inc (NOVL)
Total debt: $0 
Cash & ST investments: $979.6 million 
YTD stock price performance: +48.67% 



Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year 


2007: $600m total debt, +10.81% share price  


2008: $126m total debt, -43.38% share price  


2009: $0 total debt, +6.68% share price

I have not yet researched any of these companies and do not know which, if any, will suit my or your portfolio.  What I do know is that these companies are in a strong position during these times of tight credit.  Investments in businesses without debt make good sense now.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety in 2020

The most important investment you can make in 2020, is in yourself. 

Invest in more time.  Invest in less stress. Invest in greater security.That’s why four years ago we created the Purposeful Investing Course (PI) because when it comes to finances, there are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

The core model portfolio we teach in the PI Course rarely changes, but is highly diversified in thousands of shares around the world… so there is higher long term profits, less stress and greater safety.

The portfolio consists of 19 country ETFs.  During the four years since we created the Purposeful Investing Course and set up a $40,000 real time portfolio at Motif Brokers, we have held the same 19 shares and have only traded three times.

The portfolio started with $40,000 and has risen to $53,591 ($49,015 in shares and the balance in accumulated cash).

The portfolio did really well from 2015 to 2018, better than the DJI Index.  Then as the US dollar grew in strength it fell behind.

The chart below shows the actual results of thos portfolio compared with the S&P 500.

motif

 

This good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around investing models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Canada, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Spain, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of theseall good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in all the shares of the MSCI Index in each good value market reduces long term risk.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last four years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and “Silver Dip” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2020 I celebrate my 54th anniversary in the investing business and 52nd year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal Investing Course.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Gary

Read 15 Companies with Zero Debt