Tag Archive | "economic cycle"

Survive the Odd Economic Cycle


Has a quantum economic shift taken place?  If so, old, proven methods of investing no longer work?

This is the oldest chart I have in my files.  Asset allocation based on the economic cycle has been one of the most reliable ways to gauge how stock markets perform.

This message looks at why this indicator may no longer be true.

asset allocation chart

This economic guide has not been reliable since the great recession ended.  Certainly back in 2019, most of the factors were in place… the rush for liquidity, a relaxed money supply, high unemployment and uncertainty.   That was a good time to buy equities.

Now, there is falling unemployment and expanded PE multiples, but interest rates remain low and are falling… all over the world.  Rising inflation is not so sure either, at last not statistically.

Maybe it’s not such a good time to move to cash… though I am slowly moving that way personally.

What has caused the change?

Earlier in the week I recommended you read the long article “The End of Capitalism Has Begun”(1)  at the Guardian Newspaper’s website.”

The article argues that capitalism will be reshaped around new values and behaviors.

This change according to the article is possible because of three major advances that  information technology (IT) has brought about in the past 25 years.

First, IT has reduced the need for work, blurred the edges between work and free time and loosened the relationship between work and wages.

Second, IT is corroding the market’s ability to form prices correctly. Markets in the old system came from supply and demand based on scarcity. Information however has become so efficient that access to supplies are far more abundant.

Take an example of shopping in a store. You see what you need. The scarcity is that you don’t have it and want it. This creates a demand, but access to information on your phone allows you to an abundance of options. You use your phone to compare prices on the spot and order online if the product costs less elsewhere.

The existing system’s defense mechanism is to form monopolies. Giant companies, on a scale not seen in the past 200 years, have formed from Wal Mart to Amazon. They cannot last. Their business models are based around capturing and privatizing information. Today’s technology makes it almost impossible to keep information under control.

The article says: Third, we’re seeing the spontaneous rise of collaborative production: goods, services and organisations are appearing that no longer respond to the dictates of the market and the managerial hierarchy. The biggest information product in the world – Wikipedia – is made by volunteers for free, abolishing the encyclopedia business and depriving the advertising industry of an estimated $3bn a year in revenue.

New forms of ownership, new forms of lending, new legal contracts: a whole business subculture has emerged over the past 10 years, which the media has dubbed the “sharing economy”.

These three changes have created numerous catastrophic business failures. Worse than that, it has broken the 200-year pattern of industrial capitalism wherein an economic crisis spurs new forms of technological innovation that benefit everybody.

The business models of all our modern digital giants are designed to prevent the abundance of information.

The fact that information is abundant changes all the rules.  Information goods are freely replicable.  Once a thing is made, it can be copied/pasted infinitely.  A music track or the giant database you use to build an airliner has a production cost; but its cost of reproduction falls towards zero. Therefore, if the normal price mechanism of capitalism prevails over time, its price will fall towards zero, too.

In short, we need totally different visions about every aspect of the economy, including currencies.

How can we use this thought?

We can first reexamine our thinking about the normal behavior of share prices.  We can keep looking for a new normal.

Take the Wall Street Journal article “Dim Earnings Outlook Poses Peril For Stocks” (2).

wsj.com

The article says: Some companies scale back expectations as investors grow more cautious

The outlook for third-quarter corporate profits is darkening, a threat to further derail a stock market that is already off to the worst start to a quarter since 2016.

A flurry of earnings reports in coming weeks will mark the latest test for stocks after a rocky stretch of economic data exacerbated worries that a global manufacturing slowdown is trickling into the U.S.

Data last week showed domestic factory activity hit a 10-year low in September, while the services sector expanded at the slowest pace in three years. Friday’s jobs report eased some of those fears, showing that the U.S. labor market is a relative bright spot, with unemployment hitting a 50-year low.

wsj.com charts

A gloomy economic outlook isn’t the only headwind for big corporations. The U.S. dollar has rallied this year, potentially making it more difficult for companies with large international businesses to profit from shoppers abroad. Also in the mix is a prolonged trade conflict with China and worries over how it might dent an already slowing U.S. economy.

In the old scenario, a slow down in corporate profits would lead to a slow down in equity prices, especially when the market is at the end of an all time long bull market and near its all time high.

Over the last two years the US stock market has slowed.  In fact the chart below from www.finance,yahoo.com (alteration arrow is mine) shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Index is lower than it was two years ago.

Yet US markets have shown a remarkable agility for recovery.

www.finance.yahoo.com

Will a slowdown of corporate earnings lead to a slowdown of equity prices?

Maybe in the new normal, burn rate is more important than profits.  Maybe investors put more emphasis on grabbing the next big thing rather than owning part of a business that has expanding profits.

Maybe investors are simply sticking to shares because interest rates are so low.

The truth is no one really knows.

The good investment rule is to invest in value for the long haul and have staying power.  Forget short term speculations and look for really long term gains.

Charlie Munger the number two person at Berkshire Hathaway, which has one of the best, long term performance records explained why having a long term outlook is such an important rule.

Munger said (bolds are mine): Nobody has a zero incidence of bad news coming to them too late, but that’s really low at Berkshire. Warren likes to say, ‘Just tell us the bad news, the good news can wait.’ So people trust us in that, and that helps prevent mistakes from escalating into disasters. When you’re not managing for quarterly earnings and you’re managing only for the long pull, you don’t give a damn what the next quarter’s earnings look like.

Taking a long term view takes off the pressure that can otherwise lead to hurried errors.

Plus the risk of loss in broad market indices rarely lasts for extended periods.

A study of 36 bear markets since 1900 (with dividends and inflation taken into account) showed that the median recovery time for bear markets to get back to their previous level is “just” 1.9 years.

Remember the seven fundamentals below that have not changed.

#1: There is always something we do not know.

#2: Periods of high performance are followed by periods of low performance and vice versa.

#3:   Markets move short term based on emotion and are unpredictable.  Markets move long term based on value and are predictable.

#4: To attain higher growth you must either increase risk or trust luck.

#5:  Invest in inexpensive equities that are paying a reasonable return.

#6: Do not care too much about day to day volatility. The short term process of buying and selling takes too much time. This short term process leaves too little time to analyze and forecast.  Do not care too little about strategy.

#7: Do not panic when markets fall.  Turn on the auto pilot and normally add to your position.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

motif

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

(1) www.forbes.com/sites/joresablount/2019/05/31/10-blockchain-companies-to-watch-in-2019/#1d19e1c3543f

(2) www.wsj.com/articles/dim-earnings-outlook-poses-peril-for-stocks-11570370402?mod=itp_wsj&mod=&mod=djemITP_h

 

 

 

Graphic Wealth Prediction


This chart on asset allocation is the oldest graph I have ever used!

Originally, decades ago, it was a slide for overhead projectors.  Later it became digital for Power Point.  Thousands of delegates have seen it at my global investing seminars and courses.  I have published it in numerous messages at this site over the past 20 years.

The chart’s longevity comes because it reveals a vital truth we should never ignore.

Most investors do ignore this truth…some at their peril.

Don’t.  You’ll be at risk, because the pros are acting on the facts behind this graph now.  See what this can mean to your investments now.

economic cycles

This chart shares an almost absolute truth…”The best times in the economy, are the worst time to invest in shares.”

Equity investors should watch out for:

  • Rising Inflation
  • Rising Short Interest Rates
  • Rising Bond Yields
  • Falling Unemployment
  • Expanding PE Multiples

Asset allocation moves in ways that seem almost upside down.  Yet there is logic in the cycle.  When the economy is robust,  money is flowing-everyone wants to join in the party.  The market is ruled by greed.  Demand for shares increases.  As demand soars….value falls.

During an economic downturn, money is tight.  The market can be ruled by fear.  Demand for shares decreases.  As demand drops….value soars.

Now is the best of times for the economy.  This is the worst of times for equities.

This truth reveals the fact that we are at a place in the economic cycle where it’s best to build up cash.

The Wall Street Journal article: “Investors, Worried About the End of Goldilocks Market, Pare Back Riskier Bets” (1),  shows that professional investors recognize this and are reacting now.

The article says (bold is mine):  “Investors reassess their risk tolerance amid bouts of market volatility and signs of rising inflation.”

Nine years into a roaring stock bull market, fund managers are paying their last respects to Goldilocks.

Investors broadly remain bullish on stocks and other investments, aided by an upbeat U.S. Jobs Report on Friday. But repeated bouts of market volatility in 2018, and signs of a pickup in inflation have forced them for the first time in several years to reassess their tolerance for risk.  For many, that means boosting cash positions, slashing equity or diversifying portfolios.

At GAM, (Golden Asset Management), which manages 163 billion dollars, the team is moving money into long-short strategies.  These can bet both on rising as well as falling assets, and areas like emerging-market debt to reduce correlations within their portfolios.

Bank of America, Merrill Lynch’s most recent fund-manager survey, showed a record monthly climb in the percentage of fund managers taking out protection against a sharp fall in equity markets in the next three months.

For nearly a decade, Swiss private bank, Julius Baer Group , which manages $410 billion, had broadly followed the classic 60-40 equity-bond portfolio, focusing on growth-biased stocks.  That ratio offers a higher allocation to stocks but still a healthy dose of bonds, which typically offer lower but more stable returns.  “Now, we’re at an inflection point. Buy and hold won’t work anymore,” said Yves Bonzon, the group’s chief investment officer.  Mr. Bonzon is also reducing allocations to stocks and holding more cash.

“It was frustrating [last year] when everything was only going up. I thought, why would clients talk to us?” said Mr. Stein, whose firm manages $449 billion. “But now these strategies make more sense, when there are bigger disconnects in markets.”

Others are taking a different approach. For the first time in years, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab , which manages $2.9 trillion in client assets, said he has been urging his U.S. clients to diversify their portfolios internationally in order to reduce risk.

Shortly after February’s correction, Mr. Kleintop said he went on a series of meetings from California to Kentucky prepared to reassure clients that the bull market wasn’t over yet and that stocks could still do well, albeit in a more volatile climate.

To his surprise, “They were all very confident, ready to buy the dip,” he said. “It does get you worried—it’s a sign we’re late in the cycle.”

chart

The pros get it!  This is why in the long run professional investors win… emotional amateurs can lose.

Mr. Kleintop gets it!  When most investors are confident, it is late in the cycle.

Mr. Stein gets it.  When clients won’t listen and won’t talk to the pros because everything is rising… it is late in the cycle.

Another Wall Street Journal article “After Nine Years, How Long Can This Bull Live?” (2) enforces this warning when it says (bolds are mine):

Long periods of calm lead investors and companies to make silly assumptions, leaving them dangerously exposed to shifts in fundamentals.  With the economy now appearing to be in the last phase of the cycle, in which the Fed starts worrying about too much growth rather than too little, some of the easy assumptions of recent years are starting to be challenged—and could threaten the most popular stocks.

For nine years U.S. investors have had easy money, higher profit margins and—mostly—rising valuations, even as the economy had its slowest recovery since World War II.  Wall Street won, while Main Street suffered.

Now Main Street is finally starting to do better.  Jobs are plentiful, unemployment is low, wages just might, perhaps, be picking up, and the bond market is once again priced for inflation rising to the Fed’s 2% target over the next two years.

Main Street’s gain could be Wall Street’s pain. 

The stock market isn’t prepared, because it has been transformed in the past nine years.  When the S&P bottomed in March 2009, the top five constituents were Exxon, Procter & Gamble , Johnson & Johnson , AT&T and Chevron , then offering an average dividend yield of 4.2%.  Investors wanted boring, predictable companies giving them money back immediately, not hopes of a dividend some time in the distant future.

Those companies have been swept away, with their total value now just 6% of the market, down from 14%.  Instead, the market is dominated by Apple, Microsoft , Alphabet, Amazon and Facebook, yielding 0.65% and making up the same share of market capitalization that the old-school top five did at the market trough. Investors dream of disruptive long-term growth and are willing to wait for their rewards—as should be expected when bond yields are low.

As the story switches to rising yields, the shunned higher-yielding stocks offering immediate reward should come back into favor. Technology and other high-growth, high-margin, high-capital-spending stocks should be less appealing because growth will be available from cheaper stocks, too. The assumptions many investors cling to are that money will stay easy, inflation will stay low and workers will be happy to accept what they’re given—so watch out if those are proven wrong.

When markets are rising most investors are smarter than the pros… until they are not.

Successful, long term investing strategies must include two tactics.  The first tactic is a repeatable selection of value during upticks.  The second tactic is protection during downfalls.   The really professional investors rarely do as well as amateurs in rising markets.  These pros mostly win long term because they known when to shift to the second safety tactic.

The long term graphic in this message shows that investing logic is upside down.  Good times are bad for shares and vice versa.  We are in good economic times, so shift from the story of “Goldilocks” to “Alice in Wonderland”.  Jump down the rabbit hole!

You’ll gain safety if you do.

Gary

Yesterday we sent our Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) subscribers the annual 36 page “Keppler Asset Management Asset Allocation Publication”.

This year’s publication includes a 15 page Value vs. Growth comparison for the All Country World Index.  See how US value shares outperformed US growth shares by 6.16% over 90 years.

chart

See how to subscribe to Pi below.

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

motif

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com: Investors worried about end of goldilocks market pare back riskier bets

(2) www.wsj.com:  After nine years how long can this bull live

32 Year Economic Cycle


Cash in on the best economic opportunity in 32 years.  Currency diversification has always been important for safety, but right now a multi currency opportunity is brewing and has more profit potential then you have seen in over three decades.

Our “International Investing Seminars” started 32 years ago at about the best time for investors ever.  Over these decades our semi annual seminars have updated what’s going on in global investment markets and what to do.  In all those years, few times offered as much long term opportunity as in 1982.

Join us to learn the great opportunities that are just ahead.

May 1-2-3, 2015,  Mount Dora Florida. Multi Currency, Protect Against a Weak Dollar Investing Seminar. (Normally $799 or $999 for a couple)

Mt. Dora Photo

Lakeside Inn, Mount Dora. Florida

Sept 4-5-6, 2015, West Jefferson, North Carolina.  Multi Currency, Protect Against a Weak Dollar Investing Seminar. (Normally $799 or $999 for a couple)

jefferson Landing

Our summer and autumn courses are at the Jefferson Landing Country Club.

Attend the Mount Dora seminar in May and the September 2015 seminar in West Jefferson update at no added fee.  You attend two seminars for the price of one.

Finally, conditions have come full circle and the several conditions are coming together just as we saw at our first seminars in the 1980s.  The US dollar. the US stock market and the price of oil are acting almost exactly as they did in the early 1980s.  Knowing the conditions and why they have merged  and what to do about them can help you create a fortune.

One way to tap this potential (we’ll review this at the seminar) is to invest in a Good Value Country Strategy with ETFs (Country Index Exchange Traded Funds).  For example there are currently ten good value developed markets, Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.  You can easily create a diversified portfolio in each or all of these ten countries with Country Index ETFs.

The table below shows how the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI World Index, the Keppler Asset Management (KAM) Equally-Weighted World Index, the MSCI Europe Index and the MSCI US Index at the end of 2014, based on selected variables (current numbers for book value; 12-month trailing numbers for the other variables – no forecasts).  In addition, we show the MSCI World Index at its All-Time High Valuation at the end of the last Millennium and its All-Time Low Valuation at the end of 1974.

Screen shot 2015-01-18 at 4.55.43 PM

Click on chart to enlarge.

This chart shows that European market offer etxra value versus US markets now.

We review more than two dozen Country Index ETFs at the seminars.   One example is the iShares Germany MSCI Index ETF.

MSCI Germany

Click on image to enlarge.

Germany’s stock market is a good value market.  Germany has the world’s fourth largest economy.  The country is the third largest exporter in the world and in 2013 recorded the highest trade surplus in the world making it the biggest capital exporter globally.  Yet German shares have been overlooked. German share prices are cheap.

The problem most investors have is knowing which German shares to buy.  The country Index ETF solves this by investing in almost all the shares traded on Germany’s largest stock exchange in Frankfurt.  The iShares Germany MSCI Index ETF is a share traded on the New York Stock Exchange that invests in 85% of the shares in Germany.  This ETF is a passive fund that does not try to outperform the growth of the German Stock Market. The managers simply track the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index.

The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the German index is composed of the stocks of 54 different German companies and covers about 85% of all the German equities.  Germany’s ten largest companies compose about 60% of the index.  These ten companies are:  BAYER (Health Care) composes 9.91% of the index – SIEMENS (Industrials) 7.89% – DAIMLER (Consumer Discretionary) 7.04% – BASF (Materials)  6.81% – ALLIANZ (Financials) 6.65% – SAP STAMM (Info Tech) 5.69% – DEUTSCHE TELEKOM (Telecom Srvcs) 4.46% – DEUTSCHE BANK NAMEN  (Financials) 3.66%  – VOLKSWAGEN VORZUG (Consumer Discretionary) 3.18% – BMW STAM (Consumer Discretionary)  3.15%.

The iShares MSCI ETF invests in all the important sectors in the German market, so your one investment in the ETF gives you a spread of good value German shares.

MSCI Germany

The fund has over 4 billion of assets and those assets are invested mainly in the 54 German shares, so your investment gives you enormous diversification within the German stock market. What makes ETFs such easy and simple investments is that even a small investment of $1000 (at this time) will buy about 25 shares.  For just $1,000 the investment is spread into this vast powerful, good value equity market.

At our seminars we review Country Index ETFs for every good value stock market in the world. One benefit of these ETFs is that investors can invest very small amounts so it is possible to invest in all good value countries, even if your portfolio is not large.

You’ll learn an even easier way to invest in ETFs with a pooled portfolio like the ENR Global Growth ETF Portfolio.  This portfolio offers one of the easiest but least expensive ways to invest in value.  Statistics show that more than 75% of all active money managers fail to beat a bellwether index in their sector over short and longer term periods.  Most actively-managed stock funds can’t beat the stock market nor can they beat investors who use indexing.  Indexing is an investment strategy that aims to equal a specific market index as closely as possible. Traditional investment managers aim to outperform their targeted benchmark.

The ENR Global Growth ETF Portfolio is currently invested in the following ETFs:

* PowerShares Intl Dividend Achievers ETF

* SPDR S&P Dividend ETF

* Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF

* Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Sm-Cap ETF

* First Trust Dow Jones Global Sel Div ETF

* iShares MSCI ACWI

* iShares International Select Dividend

* Vanguard Total International Stock ETF.

For investors seeking a low-cost, diversified, good value portfolio, this is among the most competitive ways to gain global diversification.  You save on taxes.  Actively managed funds exert a heftier tax bill on your portfolio than passive products.  You save on reduced portfolio turnover.  Every time a manager makes a trade, there’s a cost. ETFs invest in the shares that compose the index and do not trade.  During 2013 actively managed funds in the US turned over 85% of their holdings.  Remember that this activity resulted in poorer average results than the indices for 75% of these funds.

Join me at our 2015 seminars to explain how to use ETFs and much more.  The “International Investing Seminar” looks at how to protect purchasing power and pensions with multi currency investing.  The course teaches how to add safety and create to profit from multi currency and global equity cycles.

Value Investing Outside the Box.  Here is a partial syllabus of the seminar:

* See new breakout possibilities… in global investing.

* Benefits of early investments in an oil that’s up 22.8 times in the past ten years.

* Beyond Gold.  Three hard assets that protect against all currency erosion.

* The Small Country Effect. Why small markets rise more than large ones.

* Top Value small markets and how to easily invest small or large amounts.

* The best four currencies for the year ahead.

Few decisions are as important to your wealth as WHICH CURRENCIES to invest in. This has been our area of expertise since the 1970s.  Learn how to use ETFs to gain multi currency diversification.

Details in this session also include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

*  The benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why the value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver.  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars – how interest rates at zero eliminate opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* New tax strategies.  How to create businesses that earn income and reduce tax.

The course begins with a 1000 Year Economic Review that leads us up to where markets are in 2015.

Learn how to:

* Find good investing value.

* Use Multi Currency Portfolios.

* To use multi currency for diversification-speculation & hedge.

* Earn in water and agricultural investing.

* Gain with special situations now for aggressive growth

Join Merri and me for this multi currency economic update seminar.

Gary Scott speaking to 400 delegates in Quito, Ecuador

May 1-2-3, 2015,  Mount Dora Florida. Multi Currency, Protect Against a Weak Dollar Investing Seminar. (Normally $799 or $999 for a couple)

Sept 4-5-6, 2015, West Jefferson, North Carolina.  Multi Currency, Protect Against a Weak Dollar Investing Seminar. (Normally $799 or $999 for a couple)

Attend the Mount Dora seminar in May and the September 2015 seminar in West Jefferson update at no added fee.  You attend two seminars for the price of one.

Join my wife, Merri, and me at our International Investing Seminar. Enroll here $799. Couple $999

See how to attend all our seminars in 2015 for one low fee.

Gary

Or Learn about Ecuador.

Learn About Ecuador & Speak Spanish in Three Days

Learn Spanish in Three Days ONLINE

The “Learn Spanish in Three Day Course” is now available online.

Learn Spanish in a day, or a week, month or any time frame that works for you.

I’m Gary Scott.  Over fifty years ago I started a business that has helped hundreds of thousands of subscribers learn about investing in Hong Kong (1960s and 1970s), Switzerland, London, Isle of Man (1970s and 1980s) and across Europe.  In the 1990s we took investors to Panama, Mexico and Ecuador.  That’s when we realized an incredible need for an easy way to learn Spanish.

See below how my wife Merri was able to create a program that allowed students to be speaking and understanding Spanish in just three days.

Thousands of subscribers have learned Spanish at our three day Super Spanish course.  These courses have been taught across the US, in Canada, Panama, Mexico, Ecuador, Uruguay and Spain.

spanish

A Super Spanish course in Florida.

Read below to see how and why we are now offering our Super Spanish course ONLINE for the first time.

Speaking Spanish as a second language has huge benefits.

You can become one of the rare North Americans who can get along in Spanish speaking countries.  You can be one of the special people who can communicate with 10 million non-English speakers in the USA.  Spanish is the second most used language in the USA.  There are more Spanish speakers than speakers of Chinese, French, German, Italian, Hawaiian, and the Native American languages combined.  According to the Census Bureau, Spanish is the primary language of nearly 50 million people in the US.  This is the largest Spanish-speaking community outside of Mexico. Only half of these speakers also speak English “very well,” and 19% do not speak English at all.

You become one of a leading few when you speak Spanish.  Yet there are more benefits.

An article in England’s leading newspaper, the Telegraph, entitled “Why learn a foreign language? Benefits of bilingualism” (1) sum up the biggest benefit of learning a second language and increased intelligence.  The article says (bolds are mine): “Learning a foreign language is more than just a boost to your CV or handy for traveling. 

It will make you smarter, more decisive and even better at English. 

Physiological studies have found that speaking two or more languages is a great asset to the cognitive process.  The brains of bilingual people operate differently than single language speakers, and these differences offer several mental benefits.”

The article then explains studies that show seven cognitive advantages gained from learning a foreign language.

#1:  You become smarter
#2:  You build multitasking skills
#3:  You stave off Alzheimer’s and dementia
#4:  Your memory improves
#5:  You become more perceptive
#6:  Your decision-making skills improve
#7:  You improve your English

Does it sound impossible to learn Spanish in three days?  Yes, it is impossible when you try to learn Spanish in the old, traditional way.

You may choose to take more time using the ONLINE course to learn Spanish, but thousands of our readers have learned to speak Spanish in only three days at our Spanish courses.

There is a scientific method of learning… proven and described in numerous best selling books that create educational jumps by making education natural, easy and fun.   This course works because it is education without stress!

A special method of learning (called Super Learning) was created and refined by the Bulgarian educational master, Georgi Lozanov.   Lozanov transformed the entire Soviet educational system to such a degree that this third world country beat the USA into space.

My wife Merri was lucky to be one of a handful of students outside of Bulgaria who were allowed to be taught this system in the early 1970s.  She practiced this unique and remarkable form of education for  four decades. It was a delight!

Merri and I began integrating these techniques with other shamanic and educational tactics we had gained in our global travels and then applied them to teach Spanish in three days.

The course has been proven again and again by the thousands who have used this system.  You can read a few of the many raves we have received from students who have learned from the Super Thinking Spanish course we created.

Here are a few quotes from delegates of the course.

One delegate from St. Louis wrote:  Hi Gary,  Just ended forty-five years in dentistry last week, and I’m on to a new career.  What is my new career?  Still formulating, but the eye -opening,mind expanding Super-Spanish course last weekend in St. Louis surely shows me the opportunity exists to expand my horizons.

Besides having a lot of nice people to learn our new language; the methods Merri and you developed proved to be just what you said they would be.  We all and I in particular relaxed our way to new learning.  I feel so very comfortable with the basis of my new language skills that I know I will be spitting out great Spanish sentences by the time I reach Ecuador in October.  Last year I spent six weeks in Ecuador and now I plan on conversing with the people.

Today’s excerpt of your newsletter really hit home. You do what you say you will. There are no surprises or hidden sales tricks. The only tricks are beneficial to our learning.  Thank you for a wonderful experience that I was quite unable to grasp how you would pull it off.  You did, however, and I look forward to other courses that you offer, and I have absolutely no doubt they also will work beneficially.  Best regards, Denis Molloy.

Another wrote about the Super Spanish course:   Buenos Dias, here is a testimonial for Super Thinking-Super Spanish.  Please feel free to use all or part in promotions for the course.  In addition, you may give my email address to any prospect “on the fence” about enrolling.  Yesterday, in Cotacachi, Ecuador, I finished Super Spanish.  I had high expectations for the course and they were exceeded.

After three days, I can speak Spanish in complete sentences. In simple conversations, such as buying groceries or ordering a meal, I can make myself understood. I think that’s incredible!

Although I am far from the competence level of a native speaker, I feel I’ve taken a giant step forward in learning Spanish so that I can experience the people and culture of Ecuador.  The foregoing benefits would have more than justified the time and money I invested in Super Spanish.  And learning some Spanish was not the most important benefit I got from the course.

Prior to leaving the USA, I had felt for some time that the pace of life there was unhealthy for me (and for most people) and I did nothing about it.

I’ve thought about the pace issue during the course.  One of the key elements Merri Scott designed into Super Spanish is placing the student in the optimal state for learning.  In class, the past three days, I’ve been re-introduced to guided journeys and introduced to the calming effects of Baroque music (www.sundaybaroque.org).  What a blessing! I’m inclined to make one or both a daily part of my life.   Rob Christi.  Cotacachi, Ecuador

Another attendee from a course wrote:   “I took this incredible class a few weeks ago, and I would like to tell anyone that is interested, that it is an amazing three days of learning with lots of laughs included. You leave everyday wanting to learn more and are so excited to do so.

“Other Spanish classes and tutoring made us feel like it would take forever to get to the point where we could put it into practice, but this method gave us a more fluent use for everyday life almost immediately AND the confidence to use it.  It is a fantastic way to show people how much they know and give confidence to learn and use Spanish creating a momentum.

“They made learning Spanish easy and fun in a very relaxed, comfortable atmosphere.  I would definitely recommend this course.  Even if you know some Spanish, this helps make it easier because of the less stress that no verb conjugations gives you.  This gives you more confidence in yourself to try and speak it more.

 “The stress free atmosphere and tons of interaction and participation were very conducive to learning.  The relaxation techniques alone are worth the price.  The fact that I can now feel more comfortable conversing in Spanish with my new friends and neighbors is priceless.  Muchas, muchas gracias.”

“I loved the relaxed environment.  I picked up quite a lot of new vocabulary.  I found this course very informative about how the language works, how I can make sentences and understand others better!  Muchas Gracias!  I had a call from Telcel (the local phone company) after our second class and I was able to speak and understand them for the first time. Despacio (meaning slowly) … a great word!  Everyone should take this course before they pick up bad habits.”

“I liked how simply the course was organized and the positive attitude about learning.  Thank you so much for helping me to learn Spanish!”

“I liked the laid back yet professional approach.  I highly recommend this new, relaxing method of learning Spanish,  I feel a lot more confident in the delivery of my words and sentences. It was taught in an excellent and very professional way.

“It was a very enjoyable class.”

How The Course Works

The first tactic is to use Baroque music to create Relaxed Concentration in the learning process.  At least three best selling books, “Superlearning”, the “Mozart Effect” and “Superlearning 2000” have revealed insights about how to learn and think more powerfully based on systems drawn from the Bulgarian educational master, Dr. Georgi Lozanov.  

Merri was among just a few who learned directly from Lozanov.

gary scott super thinking session

Super Spanish relaxed concentration session.

You gain six valuable ONLINE Relaxed Concentration sessions in the online course that is delivered via the internet.

The second tactic uses 17 unique lessons to provide Spanish fluency in a short time.   Let me prove to you how this tactic works by teaching you hundreds of Spanish words in less than 30 seconds.

Here is the proof.

“Most words in English that end in ION are almost identical, just pronounced differently.  For example action is accion, education-educacion, manipulation- manipulacion, etc.”

There you have it.  How long did it take you to read the sentence?  You now know hundreds of Spanish words that you will never forget.

See examples of the words you already know below.

How long would have taken you to memorize all those words?  How soon would you have forgotten them?

This is just one of seventeen Spanish lessons in the course.

The next lesson teaches how to pronounce each of the nouns.

Then, the third lesson teaches almost as many verbs, almost as quickly.

The fourth lesson shows how to avoid conjugating verbs by sticking with the infinitive (far easier than it sounds).  This simple lesson leaves a person sounding like a Spanish professor without ever conjugating a verb.

Lesson five shows how to sound infinitely polite and yet get almost anything desired in Spanish.

Lesson six gives valuable connectors and the seventh lesson triples the Spanish capacity with three words for “yesterday,” “now” and “tomorrow”.

By the end of three days you feel comfortable speaking Spanish.

Plus the system is Impro-Dynamic.  This means your Spanish keeps getting better even though you do not seem to be studying… practicing… or speaking Spanish.

I was amazed by this as I traveled back and forth from the USA to Ecuador.  The longer I was away from Ecuador… the better my Spanish became.  My second language was automatically improving The self improving feature comes because you learn to create Spanish sentences rather than remember them.  The portion of the brain that creates is more powerful than the portion that recalls.  When your mind creates something… it owns it!  You do not have to remember .

During the course you learn 4005 Spanish words that you already know.   This eliminates the need to memorize 99% of Spanish words.

You then learn how to create Spanish sentences from these words.

Throughout the course you learn how to pronounce the sentences you create.

When the course ends… the mind keeps working… and creating… so next time you begin to speak Spanish you’ll be surprised .  You improve even though you have not actively worked on your lingual skill.

Due to the difficulty of getting groups together to learn this valuable technique, we created an online program for subscribers to use the Super Spanish course at home.   The normal three day course fee is $499 ($749 for a couple).

The ONLINE course is available at the highly reduced price of $79.

I’ll be in touch personally via email with each person who signs up for this course to see how it works or what is required to make it better.  Once this test is complete, we plan to offer the program on a larger scale and at a much higher price.

The ONLINE course has our, full satisfaction or money back, guarantee.  Try Super Spanish for 60 days.  If not fully satisfied, simply let us know for a full refund.

Learn Spanish online $79 - using coupon code SPANISH70 at checkout to immediately save $70 off the regular price of $149.

Here are more testimonials from previous Super Spanish Courses.

Maggie wrote: It didn’t really seem possible that we would be speaking and understanding Spanish in only 3 days but the course made it happen in a very supportive learning environment.  I would highly recommend this course for anyone wishing to learn “practical Spanish”.  The teaching methods, use of relaxation, the use of native Spanish speakers for pronunciation and the teachers themselves who were approachable and helpful and always positive made this a very valuable class.

This course improved my self confidence in my ability to learn and retain a language.  It was presented with genuine enthusiasm, great energy and the style of learning is very effective. Gracias!  It was a great experience.

Nadine wrote: “Just spent the last 3 days in the most wonderful learning environment learning Spanish.  What an amazing learning experience!!  First day out of class and I could not stop thinking in Spanish WOW!!  I am amazed by how much I learned, retained and how much more is showing up now that I am out of class.  And the best part is THERE WAS NO STUDYING!! Indeed this is Super Thinking!!!  I would highly recommend this to anyone that has ever had a desire to learn another language or learn anything in record time.

And a few days after that ….  As I went through my day, just hanging out with my son, I could see myself starting to think in Spanish.  At first I thought it was amusing but as it continued and increased I thought “My goodness this is really remarkable amazing” It was really an effortless unfolding.  I wasn’t at any point “trying” to think in Spanish, just words I knew would fly across the screen in my mind.  And then this afternoon, my son cuddled up on the couch to watch some cartoons on his ipad and was watching Peppa Pig in Spanish…hmm coincidence?  I think not, I’m radiating Spanish so much that my son is being influenced!  Thanks a million again.  This weekend the best learning experience of my life!!

If you have ever had a desire to learn Spanish this is the way to do it!  By the end of the first day I had more confidence and more practical ability than I had from any previous courses I had taken.  It was fun and relaxed and full of laughter.  You will leave this class excited to use what you have learned.  Rather than leaving overwhelmed with how much you have yet to learn and master, you are equipped with the knowledge and know how to go out and communicate as well as the excitement to do it!”

Gary noted:  “The whole approach is positive and conducive to learning at a level that benefits ALL participants.  It is not intimidating and does not set up a pass/fail atmosphere.  The presenters are terrific and the results unbelievable.  It was relaxed, informal, friendly and effective.”

Twila said:  “This class provided a very refreshing and relaxed way of learning.  The atmosphere felt very safe to say the words you were practicing.  I learned a lot in a way that will make it easy to apply.  Starting with conversation is way more fun.  How quickly you can learn!  It was a great group, great instructors and great stories.

The atmosphere in the classroom was so relaxed that learning Spanish felt like a breeze and not like a painful task.  The relaxation exercises are really conducive to language learning.  We learned A LOT in a short time and it was fun and the environment was non-threatening.”

Brigitte sent this:  “Buenos Dias, Suzanne. su clase de espanol es excelente! Muchas Gracias!  
I have already done what you suggested and went into the program listening to the music and going over the lessons.  I know: Repetition……reinforcement…..thinking in the new language….it’s all part of it.  I loved your course and will certainly recommend it to friends.  Who knows….I might feel the urge and have the opportunity to repeat it at your beautiful place in Puerto Aventuras…..Quien sabe? Hasta otro dia y saludos a su familia.”

Marie wrote:  “I would highly recommend this course.  The amount covered in 3 days is amazing!  All with no stress.  The correlation lessons and pronunciation practice has greatly reduced my anxiety to go out and use my Spanish.  I really enjoyed the whole process and thank you for the take away tools.”

Learn Spanish online $79 - using coupon code SPANISH70 at checkout to immediately save $70 off the regular price of $149.

Here is the English translation of a few of the many Spanish words you now know and will never forget.  How long would it have taken you to memorize them?  How soon would you forget?

“Most words in English that end in ION are almost identical, just pronounced differently.  For example, action is accion, education-educacion, manipulation- manipulacion, etc.”

Some more of these words:  Combination, Attrition, Education, Vacation, Petition, Lotion, Motion, Construction, Abduction, Pronunciation, Concentration and a ton of others!

Learn Young or Old

Most Super Spanish students are all ages ,

Gary-scott-spanish-course

Super Spanish students at this course ranged from nine to over eighty years old.

Become a Spanish translator!

The wife of one couple who attended explained how after just three days her husband ended up as an accidental translator.

She wrote:  Gary,  I have sent Merri a couple of messages, and  a story of Mike being able to translate yesterday for a Spanish person  who couldn’t understand what a man was trying to tell him!

Does it sound impossible to learn Spanish in three days?  Yes, it is impossible when you try to learn Spanish in the old, traditional way.

The video below shows a super fast way to gain the basics so you can communicate in Spanish in just three days.

Gary-scott-super-spanish

Click here for FREE Super Spanish video.

Still can’t believe you can learn Spanish in a short time?

You have nothing to lose but to try.

The ONLINE Super Spanish course has our, full satisfaction or money back, guarantee. 

Try Super Spanish for 60 days.  If not fully satisfied, simply let us know for a full refund.

Learn Spanish online $79 - using coupon code SPANISH70 at checkout to immediately save $70 off the regular price of $149.

(1) www.telegraph.co.uk Benefits-of-bilingualism.html