Tag Archive | "Earthquake"

What If – This Disaster?


Here’s some ideas on how to assess risk and survive… even gain and do good in a disaster?

This week, Merri and I are in Portland visiting my mom, sister, daughter and granddaughters while we work with our webmaster.

Mom’s living where she has for 95 and a half years… right beside the Columbia River, near the confluence of the Sandy and Columbia rivers.  From my bedroom, I can almost see both rivers where they merge.

Being back where I grew up is comforting in some ways…  but there has been so much change, from a sleepy semi rural suburb to a busy traffic jammed metropolis.   There is a conflict between today’s reality and my memories.  Places where I used to hike, hunt, fish, camp out, or pick beans and berries to earn back to school cash, are now bustling communities packed with commerce, traffic lights, people and cars.

Plus now I know about the Cascadia Subduction Zone.   What felt like hard rock in my youth, now feels more like quicksand and the data below shows that what seems like solid earth could well become fluid at any time.

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Could the wonderful Oregon beach, turn into this?

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Images from Oregon State University Video “Cascadia Subduction Zone – The Big One” (1).  Everyone should watch this video.

This trip to Portland has come son after the huge Indonesian disaster and another video “Indonesia Liquefaction: The Ground Was Swirling” (2), shows how

The article that goes with this video says:  Indonesia Liquefaction: The Ground Was Swirling

“Even us who experienced it find it hard to believe,” recounted a victim of liquefaction, a phenomenon that was triggered by the recent earthquake and tsunami in Indonesia. WSJ reporters investigated on the ground.

When sandy soil with shallow groundwater shakes in an earthquake, it can behave like a liquid.

Seeing the land turn to liquid is frightening enough. Knowing that the ground beneath your feet is exactly of this type, the fright meter rises.   and

This land in Indonesia is very similar to land in Portland.  As much as a third of the cities foundation could liquify during an earthquake.

Portland is at special risk for liquefaction in an earthquake, here’s according to an Oregonlive.com article Risk of region’s energy hub on the Willamette” (3).

Oregon’s energy hub on the Willamette River faces a catastrophic risk when a megaquake hits.

The areas at highest risk are those along the Willamette and Columbia rivers including the Northwest industrial area where much of our city’s fuel is stored.

Another can happen any time. Geologists now say it’s a matter of when, not if, a giant earthquake will occur along the Cascadia subduction zone off the Oregon coast. The last megaquake hit the Northwest in 1700. Researchers say that if an earthquake doesn’t strike by 2060, the region will exceed 85 percent of all known intervals of quake recurrence in 10,000 years.

The New Yorker magazine article, “The really big one” (4) explains West coast earthquake risk in more detail.

The article says (bolds are mine): An earthquake will destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest. The question is when.

Just north of the San Andreas, however, lies another fault line. Known as the Cascadia subduction zone, it runs for seven hundred miles off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, beginning near Cape Mendocino, California, continuing along Oregon and Washington, and terminating around Vancouver Island, Canada.

When the next very big earthquake hits, the northwest edge of the continent, from California to Canada and the continental shelf to the Cascades, will drop by as much as six feet and rebound thirty to a hundred feet to the west—losing, within minutes, all the elevation and compression it has gained over centuries. Some of that shift will take place beneath the ocean, displacing a colossal quantity of seawater.  The water will surge upward into a huge hill, then promptly collapse. One side will rush west, toward Japan. The other side will rush east, in a seven-hundred-mile liquid wall that will reach the Northwest coast, on average, fifteen minutes after the earthquake begins.

By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded, the region will be unrecognizable. Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”

In the Pacific Northwest, the area of impact will cover* some hundred and forty thousand square miles, including Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Eugene, Salem (the capital city of Oregon), Olympia (the capital of Washington), and some seven million people. When the next full-margin rupture happens, that region will suffer the worst natural disaster in the history of North America. Roughly three thousand people died in San Francisco’s 1906 earthquake. Almost two thousand died in Hurricane Katrina. Almost three hundred died in Hurricane Sandy. FEMA projects that nearly thirteen thousand people will die in the Cascadia earthquake and tsunami. Another twenty-seven thousand will be injured, and the agency expects that it will need to provide shelter for a million displaced people, and food and water for another two and a half million.

The Indonesian activity may be an early warning.  Almost all of the world’s most powerful earthquakes occur in the Ring of Fire, the volcanically and seismically volatile swath of the Pacific that runs from New Zealand up through Indonesia and Japan, across the ocean to Alaska, and down the west coast of the Americas to Chile. Japan, 2011, magnitude 9.0; Indonesia, 2004, magnitude 9.1; Alaska, 1964, magnitude 9.2; Chile, 1960, magnitude 9.5.

The Federal government recognize this risk.  Last week’s Wall Street Journal (5) reported that the Interior department has ordered accelerated deployment of earthquake-detection equipment on federal lands to help West Coast cities prepare for a seismic disaster that are near-certain to hit in the coming years.

Under an Oct. 5 order by Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke obtained by The Wall Street Journal, federal permitting regulations for the equipment are being streamlined so it can be rapidly installed in national parks and Bureau of Land Management properties near population centers from San Diego to Anchorage, Alaska. The order also applies to volcanic-activity monitoring equipment in Hawaii.

Later this week as Merri and I taxi along the PDX runway and head back to Florida, I’ll be aware that the land beneath our airplane was once swamp and wetlands.  This real estate was drained and a wall of levees—28 miles of dikes and berms keep the Columbia River from flooding this area.

Northeast Marine Drive, for example, runs on top of the levee that protects Portland International Airport. These levees, built on land subject to liquefaction are maintained by four tiny, obscure public agencies that can barely afford their basic upkeep.  They are at special risk in earthquakes.

How can we benefit from such a disaster?  Look first at big businesses on the West coast. Which ones will be hurt most.  Be prepared to sell.   Look at places where these big business might shift their base of operations.

Search for businesses that will help rebuild after the disaster.  Be prepared to buy.   This investing support can be profitable and do good as it helps support  commercial enterprises that will bring recovery to the worst disaster in the history of mankind.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

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The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only twice.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/46556695544/in/dateposted-public/

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

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Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 118 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pi updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Keppler analysis and online access to all that analysis of the last three years.  Each update examines the current activity in  Pi, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 118 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more covering thousands of shares.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is one of two reason why my Pifolio lagged behind the S&P 500 from May 2018.

The US dollar has become overly strong.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The strong dollar gives non US shares extra profit potential.

The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away.  Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

The Time for Value is Near

Overseas, value investing is really a bargain following a dismal year in 2018.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/garyascott/30789695468/in/dateposted-public/

It’s no secret that value-based equities in the United States and overseas have lagged their growth cousins since 2009.  It’s unusual for value to lag growth this long (see above chart).

Why has value so badly trailed growth in this cycle?  Investors have embraced growth because of accelerated earnings and growing revenues in sectors of the market that continue to lead the charge in this bull market: technology.

Recent declines in tech shares suggests that we’ll soon see a return to value.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrated my 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

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The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

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This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $366.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $99, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am including FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $366.90.

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Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

On other bit in the bargain is that after the first year, you will continue to receive the market analysis but for only $39 a year.   You can cancel at any time, but for just over $3 a month you’ll receive all my updates on global investing.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 118 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pi updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $99 and receive all the above.

Gary

(1) www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6U198ULMYo

(2) www.wsj.com: Indonesia liquefaction the ground was swirling

(3) www.oregonlive.com:  Risk of regions energy hub on the Willamette

(4) www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

(5) www.wsj.com: Government seeks to deploy earthquake sensors faster

 

Ecuador Earthquake Update


Now that the Ecuador earthquake is out of the news cycle it is time for the reality of this disaster to sink in.

First thanks to everyone who order Ecuador roses for Mother’s day.   We donated the $700 we would normally have received from those sales to the Red Cross in Ecuador.  In addition, many buyers added a $10 or $20 donation amounting to an additional $210 or a total of  $910 was donated to the Red Cross.  There was also an additional $120.00 donated to another organization at a donors request. As you can see below, that money will go a long way.

Here are emails from various friends and readers who live on Ecuador’s coast.  They tell how the earthquake is affecting them.

Hello, everyone!   For those that know me, I know I haven’t been on the internet much since I’ve moved to Ecuador, because we can’t get internet to our small town in the jungle where we live. So, I am sorry for any lack of communication.  We are only 4 miles from the town of Canoa, which was devastated 2 weeks ago by a 7.8 earthquake. Many of you might not even realize the destruction here since the U.S. news has sugar coated it.  My husband and I have been working non stop to try and secure the standing buildings that are in danger of further life loss or property damage.   After this, we have long term goals to help rebuild this wonderful fishing village and surf town so people can get back in their homes and rebuild everything they have lost.

A reader from Galapagos  wrote:

We are lifting Ecuador from the rubble.  When one of the most devastating earthquakes since 1979 hit the Pacific Coast, Ecuador did nothing but open it’s arms and continue to welcome visitors from around the world. Amidst the developing relief effort, Ecuador is the same country everyone has always fallen in love with.

The popular tourism motto, “All You Need Is Ecuador” still rings true.  If you want to be inspired, see bio-diversity and pristine wilderness and colossal giants boasting mountaineering adventures with a taste of vibrant culture and gastronomy intertwined with soul-filling foods from Andes and Coast, Ecuador is the place for you.

A reader from Bahia wrote:  I apologize for my tardy communication but there was a disturbance here that brought my house down around my ears. No power,water,internet or cold beer anywhere in Bahia. Desastre!  However I have my animal pals Ramus and Gato for company. Never thought I,d ever be camping out again but here I am lugging buckets of water from the ground cistern for bird baths in a lawn chair,filling the one toilet that survived,doing laundry and dishes,plants and animals.  And I always hated camping. Bahia was leveled by the quake,my house held but all windows,ceramic tile,cabinets,dishes, rocketed around like shrapnel in total blackness at 6:58 pm. Knocked to floor and dog paddled out the door.  That was 9 days ago,still no power, no shower, no nada.  Local mall just reopened with free wifi, my 1st contact with the other world.  Still digging out, shoveling glass,debris and tile and waging war with mosquitoes in my windowless home.  Beats sitting around a nursing home.

A developer from the coast wrote: I’m sure everyone has been watching the news and seen the devastation that has rocked this country, including Bahia.  The last week we have been helping supply people with food and water and clearing areas and streets of rubble.  It is an emotional and tough time at the moment as many families have been negatively affected through losing family members and friends.

We have visited the Las Olas site and we are very happy to say that what we have been building and working on has not been affected in anyway.  Our retaining walls are intact and our terraces have not seen any damage.  This is a testament to the effort and quality that we are building our Las Olas community to.  We will be getting back to work on Monday 25th April and will once again assess the site thoroughly to ensure that we build homes to the highest quality and specifications we can to ensure our community is safe in the event of any future natural disasters.  With home construction underway, and our golf course getting more and more grass, Las Olas is very close to being the active living community we envisioned.

Many readers have asked about making donations and we created a program where readers could match the donations Merri and I made to the Red Cross in Ecuador.

Others have asked for ways to donate more directly.

Here is a note and a donation request from our friend Floridalva Zambrano.   She is most trustworthy and over the past decades has helped hundreds of our readers.  We trust her completely so donations here are ones I feel with great confidence will be highly effective.

Flori lives in Puerto Viejo one of the hardest hit Ecuador cities.

floridalva

Floridalva Zambrano speaking to a group of investors in 2009.

Flori wrote:  As you all know, we are going through very difficult times since the 7.8 earthquake hit the coasts of Ecuador on April 16th, particularly Manabi. However, as a result, we have also experienced the compassion and solidarity of people from other provinces of Ecuador, as well as people from outside the country, just like you.  We are tremendously grateful for your concern and prayers and for the offer to help that we have received from many of you.

Zambrano & Asociados would like to inform that the building where our office is located in Portoviejo did not suffered any structural damage; however, areas around it, including buildings such as the Court House and Disctrict Attorney’s office, were seriously affected; electriciy and water supply has not been established so far. Authorities estimate that cleaning and restoring services will take at least 2 months, since the whole downtown Portoviejo was devastated by the earthquake.

Therefore, we have temporarily moved our office to my house.  Our physical files and equipment did not suffered any major damage.  Electronic files are safe and they are kept in an external backup, which we try to keep as current as possible.   

We offered to help any way we could and Flori replied:

Dear Gary:  Thank you very much for your offer.  I really appreciate your willingness to help. Since I have volunteered for over 20 years with CAS, which is a community service arm from my church;  we have been discussing the best ways to help people.  During  the emergency, we were able to provide assistance by delivering food, water, organizing rescue and cleaning teams, medical teams, etc.

Now, two weeks after this terrible event, we realize that there are other arising needs for the thousands of people that have been affected.  Official figures state that there are 660 deaths, 33 missing people, 30.073 injured, 22.421 people in shelters, 6.998 fully destroyed buildings, 2.740 damaged constructions, 13 health centers and 560 educational facilities among the affected buildings (Source: National Department of Risks), so we would like to share the needs we have identified and the solutions we have considered so that you can make a decision on how you would like to help us meet these needs:

1.  Food:
A. For people in shelters.
B. For people who, although they have a home, have lost their small businesses or means of living.

2.       Medicine:
A.      For respiratory diseases, digestive disorders, infections, ofthalmic and skin diseases. The public health system does not have the necessary coverage.
B.      For chronic diseases that require continuous treatment (high blood pressure, diabetes, etc.)

3.       Housing

4. Sustainable living resources

5.       Volunteer work

ADDRESSING THESE NEEDS:

1.-FOOD:

The supply of food to jobless people is for three months at least, since the whole commercial and administrative area of Portoviejo, around which the economic life of the city and province revolved, has disapeared. A basic menu lunch for a family of five (rice, lentils, chicken, beaf or fish) would cost approximately $7,50, thus $1,50 per person.

Our plan is to establish a dining area in CAS to provide lunch to 150 to 200 people from Monday through Friday.

How to help:

– Funds or materials to build the facility
– Funds to buy meals for a certain period of time

2.-MEDICINE

*  Living conditions in the shelters are very precarious. The environment is really contaminated by the debris of the buildings that have been destroyed, all of this originates infections, skin and eye problems, respiratory diseases, etc.

·         People that have chronic health problems, such as high blood pressure, diabetes, kidney problems, do not have the resources to get their medicines under these critical economic circumstances.

How to help:

– Funds to buy medicine locally
– Donation of medicine

3.- HOUSING:

Replacement of houses to be built either on lots of land provided by public institutions or acquired through arrangements done by church members. Some people lost their homes, but they still own a lot of land. Basic homes can be built for $1500/$2000. Blocks and cement basic houses would cost around $6000,00.

How to help:

– Donation of material or funds

4.- SUSTAINABLE LIVING RESOURCES:

Micro loans from five hundred to five thousand dollars to help people who have lost their small businesses or their jobs.

This would also be channeled through agreements with private micro loans banks to administer these funds at a very small fee and with a small interest to maintain capital value.

5.-VOLUNTEER WORK:

Psychologists, general medical practicioners, nurses, construction workers, small business experts, general volunteers for collection of donations, cooking assistants, etc.

FOCUS POPULATION:

·         The target population to be assisted: Portoviejo, Manta, Bahía, San Vicente, Canoa, Pedernales, San Isidro, El Carmen.  Our church has congregations in all of these locations and can coordinate things through the leaders, pastors and congregation members in that areas.

There are many large organizations trying to help, and although we recognize the need for such an assistance, if you would like to contribute in a very specific way, you can monitor and have the opportunity to evaluate and even get in contact with the people you are helping, we strongly encourage you to channel your help through the Alliance Metropolitan Temple, which administration is subject to national organization audit.

Please feel free to chose any way you think you can help and let us know. In case you consider a donation to CAS for any of the projects we are implementing, you can transfer the funds to the following bank account:

BENEFICIARY: BANCO DEL PICHINCHA – ECUADOR
BANK ADDRESS: CALLE OLMEDO Y BOLÍVAR, ESQUINA
CHECKING ACCOUNT #: 3498815704
SWIFT CODE: PICHECEQ
NAME OF CLIENT: IGLESIA EVANGÉLICA ECUATORIANA ALIANZA CRISTIANA Y MISIONERA
ADDRESS: Calles: Fausto Vélez y Miguel H. Alcívar.
CITY: PORTOVIEJO, MANABÍ PROVINCE

Thank you for your concern, your prayers and help.

Sincerely,  Floridala Zambrano.

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Floridalva Zambrano

Ecuador Earthquake


Ecuador was hit with a major earthquake yesterday morning, just south of Esmeraldas on the coast.  This  earthquake is estimated to have released 20 times the energy of the earlier earthquake in Japan.

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Many years ago when we first introduced Ecuador to our readers, I wrote:  There are also…like in California , earthquakes. The Andes and this region is a new geological location (in geological terms) so this area is more prone to the shakes than for example in our other home in North Carolina’s Blue Ridge which is a very ancient, very settled geological formation.

The equator is delightfully free of hurricanes and typhoons…but I guess anywhere there is a huge body of new mountains and large amounts of ocean there is some risk of natural disaster. Earthquakes are this region’s nemesis…and yes, there is earthquake insurance.

This major quake was followed by numerous  aftershocks shown at earthquake-report.com (1):

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These shocks continued for almost 7 hours.

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Click on images to enlarge.

This is not the first time that Ecuador’s coast has been hit by a double disaster of El Nino and a major earthquake.   Bahía De Caracruz is a Pacific coastal city located on a peninsula about an hour and 15 minutes north of Manta and is bordered by the Chone River.  In 1997 the “El Niño” phenomenon caused torrents of rain, flooding and washed out miles of road in, to and from Bahia and the surrounding coastal area.  Then a year later in August 1998, a strong earthquake (magnitude of seven) created a huge amount of destruction in Bahia.

Bahía had to completely reconstruct itself.  With Japanese help and funding, plus many wealthy Ecuadorians (one of Ecuador’s more successful presidents came from Bahia so it is well known in wealthy circles), Bahía rebuilt as an ecological area and has become a wonderful city.

I have written to many friends in Ecuador and have heard back from several so far.

A friend who lives in Bahia wrote: “Yes, we are OK and not in Bahia for the moment, I have very little news from our friends in Bahia; all I know is that the town has suffered a lot; Manta and Portoviejo have big damages; Pedernales is totally destroyed.”

A friend who lives in Cotacachi wrote:  “We are OK. We only felt a tremor that seemed to last a long time…no damage here in Cotacachi.”

A friend with family near Canoa wrote:  “We have gotten reports from family in Bahia and thank God we think all family are ok. But have at least a couple of friends that died.  Many buildings destroyed in Bahia, Canoa, and Pedernales. Haven’t heard anything from Coco Beach Village but not expecting it to be good.  My mother in law’s home is very badly damaged, but her other daughter and grandkids are ok. Thanks for the thoughts.”

Our friend, Kjetil Haugan, of Haugan cruises and Palmful Boutique Hotel in San Clemente wrote: “Thanks Gary.  I am in Galápagos and family in Norway.  Palmazul is OK but San Clemente badly damaged I believe.”

A friend who lives south of Manta wrote:  “Yes, we are ok, unfortunately my apartment is not so, may be unrepairable.”

Our friend Roberto Ribadeneira who lives in Quito wrote:  “Thanks Gary. Quito was not much affected.  However the coast was. Cities all around Manabi like Jama, San Clemente, Canoa, San Vicente and Manta were.  I’ll share the pictures so you can see the devastation.  Thousands are injured and to this point over 235 died. Hundreds of buildings were destroyed. This was one of the worst earthquakes in the last 25 years.

We are all trying to help by donating water and food.  Major roads are completely destroyed and the airport at Manta is heavily damaged. That has made getting the needed items to those places hard to reach.

At this point we are all waiting to see how the rescue efforts go and hope that they can save as many as possible.  I’ll send you the pics in few minutes and some news of everything that is happening later tonight.”

See a few of the images Roberto sent below.

Several readers have written offering assistance and donations. We have an account number for the Red Cross so that you can donate directly to them if you desire.

Gary

(1) earthquake-report.com strong earthquake bahia de caraquez ecuador on-april 17 2016

Click on images to enlarge

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Music and Earthly Vibrations


Music is one way we process data beyond logic.  This fact can help improve our health and wealth in numerous ways.

Our recent message The Power in Sound looked at how music creates order from chaos.  As it does so, it also helps reduce chaos in the mind and enhances mental order and increases awareness.  As in Music – So in Life!

The Power of Sound message looked at scientific studies of the sound OM… a universal sound.

Two articles in Wired magazine shows that scientists are also studying our worldly sound.

Here is an excerpt from the Wired article “Things That Make the Earth Go Hm” by Stephen Leahy.

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Photo from Wired article “Things That Make the Earth Go Hm”

The article says: The Earth hums. Although inaudible to human ears, powerful ocean waves produce a quasi-harmonic humming sound in the ground that can be detected just about anywhere with seismometers.

Long dismissed as “background noise” by seismologists, a new look at this constant hum is opening a window on ocean activity, providing insight into the Earth’s structure that may one day be used to give advance warning of earthquakes.

Microseismic data readings from a few locations allow scientists to triangulate the location of individual storms in the middle of the Pacific or Atlantic. Some researchers hope they can use the phenomena to assess the strengths of El Niño  conditions in the Pacific when little or no direct ocean data is available.

Collectively, these ocean microseisms have an annual cumulative seismic energy comparable to that generated from earthquakes, said Kedar. All that constant low-level energy has another use: detecting changes in the Earth itself.

To understand what’s going on deep in the Earth requires seismic data. Until now, only the occasional tremors from earthquakes and big explosions generated such data. Nor were seismometers designed to detect low-frequency tremors or vibrations.

“Newer digital broadband seismometers can detect the ocean microseisms,” said Rob Clayton, a geophysicist at the California Institute of Technology Seismological Laboratory.

A constant flow of seismic data from a region over a long period of time allows the detection of very subtle changes in the Earth, said Clayton. “I think we will be able to monitor a lot of things this way.”

Using data from 155 digital broadband seismometers, Clayton said they should be able to detect the seasonal cycle of the filling and pumping out of aquifers in the Los Angeles Basin. That may prove useful in monitoring groundwater levels one day.

But by far the biggest application is in learning more about earthquakes and as a possible early-warning tool. The constant stream of data from ocean microseisms may allow seismologists to detect small vibrations deep within the Earth itself.

Music and sound magnetizes mankind within and without.  Music aligns brain frequencies with natural rhythms so the brain processes more accurately or erroneously (depending on the music).  At the same time this alignment affects all who hear it and molds social behavior patterns in cultural conformity.

The study of sound can help us in many ways… to spot earthquakes… to predict weather… even to see what will happens to stock market prices.  Observing music is like watching hemlines.  The hemline theory says that the hemline goes up on women’s skirts, the stock market goes up as well.

As music becomes more discordantso too the market.

One wealth building trick is to observe what is happening to music!

Why not? Music is a reflection of society and music is all about frequency. For example we can look at the music of a society and immediately learn a lot about the society. Even better we can look at the music of the youth in a society and start to draw conclusions about how they will be…in the future.

Music has a profound impact on how a society acts. Or maybe how a society acts has a profound impact on its music. More likely it’s a bit of both. Society is the person…music the mirror.  Watching the mirror has an impact.

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Andeans, for example, have sweet energetic music and…

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sweet energetic people.

So if we watch music and how it changes we can glimpse  how this music affects our youth (who are our future).

If you are my age you may remember your high school music teacher or your folks calling Rock and Roll, “rotten roll”? They preferred Glen Miller and the twenties bands.

We of the Golden Oldies era may dislike Rap or Heavy Metal. That’s music doing its job.

Our music fought the Johnson Administration when the kids rallied for peace. Our children’s music will probably fight us now that we are the guys with mortgages and pensions trying to have some stability and peace.  We may not like the turmoil, but it is this struggle that helps us grow.

Watch music. It will help you understand how various generations will think and act.

Marketeers depend on the power of music to mold cultures. This is such a powerful truth that there is a psychological (or marketing) name for the impact of music on young people, called “Cohort Synchronization”. Cohort Synchronization says that we as age groups are affected for life by what happens to us at around the age of 18. For example Jonesers (people born 1952-1956) think differently than boomers, (born in 1946 through 1952). Boomers were promised the world and we got it. Jonesers were promised the world but came onto the job market during a recession caused by the oil crisis. Thus Jonesers have always been more conservative, price conscious buyers than Boomers until recently. Suddenly as they approach the age of 50, they can see that life is passing them by and they had better get while they still can.

Cohort synchronization also works with music. Music that was popular when we were about age 18 maintains high emotional impact. This music has a profound impact on the way we think and act our entire lives!

Retail businesses especially use cohort synchronization to choose music for their stores that will have a positive uplifting impact on their targeted buyers. If a retail outlet is trying to appeal to me, it might play music of singers such as Tommy Sands, Johnny Tillotson, Bobby Vee, the Shirelles, Brian Hyland…all music of the early 60s. Yet if they are aiming for my sister (born seven years later), a Joneser, they would do better with Funk bands like Parliament-Funkadelic, The Meters, War, The Commodores and Earth, Wind and Fire.

So to see the future better listen to the music…not just yours but that of each upcoming generation.

This wealth building trick…to observe music to understand a society is nothing new.

As in Music – So in Life! Emperors in China understood this.   According to David Tame’s book  “The Secret Power of Music” Each year in the second month Emperor Shun could be found journeying eastward to check upon his Kingdom and to assure that everything was in order in the vast land. Yet he did not do so by auditing the account books of the different regions.  Neither by observing the state of life of the populace, or by receiving petitions from them. Nor by interviewing the regional officials in authority.    According to the ancient Chinese text “Shu King” the emperor Shun went about the different territories and test the exact pitches of their note of music.

Tame goes on to say that when the Emperor wanted to measure the efficiency of his central government he listened to and checked the five note of the Chinese musical scale.

Tame says: He had the eight kinds of Chinese musical instruments brought before him and played by musicians. Then he listened to the local folk songs and the tunes which were sung in the court itself, checking that all this music was in perfect correspondence with the five tones.

According the the basic philosophy of the ancient Chinese music was the basis of everything.  In particular they believed that all civilizations are shaped and moulded according to the kinds of music performed within them.  Was a civilizations music wistful and romantic?  then the people themselves would be wistful and romantic.  Was it strong and military? Then the nation’s neighbours had better beware.

They believed that to change the type of music a nation listened to would change the nation.

See some photos from Jean Marie Butterlin, who conducts our Ecuador shamanic tours, from our recent tour that show the connection between healing and music.

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Jean Marie Butterlin.

The photos showed the relationship between frequency and…

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sound.  Here is Clemencia, Shamana of Zuleta conductng a ceremony on the tour and using the frequency of color and vegetable rattles.

On another segment of the shamanic tour the group visited the crater lake Quicocha and as they headed out to a sacred shore on the lake  for a ceremony… the Taita Yatchak used…

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pan pipe music. He played for the group.

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He used pan pipe music in the purification ceremonies. See pictures of this ceremony and take a musical emotional test at our Ecuador Living report The Power of Andean Music.

We will review how to use music to be healthier and wealthier at our upcoming Quantum Wealth course in North Carolina.

Gary

How We Can Serve You

How to Have Real Safety

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There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quick, or in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why the core Pi model portfolio (that forms the bulk of my own equity portfolio) consists of 19 shares and this position has not changed in over two years.  During these two years we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have not traded once.

The portfolio has done well in 2017, up 22.6%, better than the DJI Index.

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However one or even two year’s performance is not enough data to create a safe strategy.

The good value portfolio above is based entirely on good value financial information and mathematically based safety programs developed around models that date back 91 and 24 years.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets developed combining my 50 years of investing experience with study of the mathematical market value analysis of Keppler Asset Management and the mathematical trend analysis of Tradestops.com.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers, such as State Street Global Advisers, use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler who continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each major stock market’s history.

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Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael is a brilliant mathematician.  We have tracked his analysis for over 20 years.   He continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  He compares each stock market’s history.  From this, he develops his Good Value Stock Market Strategy and rates each market as a Buy, Neutral or Sell market.  His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each BUY market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any stock in that country is an attractive investment, so you do not have to spend hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally use.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The Pifolio consists of iShares ETFs that invested in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

Pi uses math to reveal the best value markets then protects its positions using more math created by Richard Smith founder and CEO of Tradestops.com to track each share’s trend.

We use Smith’s  algorithms that calculate momentum of the good value markets.

dr richard smith

The Stock State Indicators at Tradestops.com act as a full life-cycle measure that indicates the health of each stock. They are designed to tell you at a glance exactly where any stock stands relative to Dr. Smith’s proprietary algorithms.

Kepppler’s analysis shows the value of markets.  The SSI signal indicates the current trend of each stock (performing well, or in a period of correction, or stopped out).

The SSI tells you one of five things:

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Akey component of the Stock State Indicator (SSI) system is momentum based on the latest 521 days of trading.  A stock changes from red to green in the SSI system only after it has already gone up a healthy amount and has started a solid uptrend.

How SSI Alerts Are Triggered

If the position has already moved more than its Volatility Quotient below a recent high, the SSI Stop Loss will trigger.  This is an indicator that the position has corrected more than what is normal for this stock.  It means to take caution.

Below is an example of how SSIs work.  This example shows the Developed Market Pifolio that we track at Tradestops.com.

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Equal Weight Good Value Developed Market Pifolio.

At the time this example was copied, all the ETFs in the Developed Market Pifolio (above) currently had a green SSI.

We do not know when the US market will fall.  We only do know that it will.  We also do not know if, when the US market corrects, global markets will follow or rise instead.

The fact that the Pifilios are invested in good value markets reduces long term risk.

Additional protection is added by using trailing stops based on the 521 day momentum of each stock in the Pifolio.

Take for example the graph below from our Tradestops account that shows the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF.  This ETF had a green SSI and a Volatility Index (VQ) of 13.26%.  This means the share can move 13.26% before there is a trend shift.

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iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (Symbol EWU)

Pi purchased the share at$31.26 and in this example the share was $34.43 and rising.  Tradestop’s algorithms suggested that if the price drops to $31.69 its momentum would have stopped and it would have shifted into trading sideways.   The stop loss price is currently $29.86.  If EWU continues to rise, both the yellow warning and the stop loss price will rise as well.

When the US stock market bull ends, know one knows for sure how long or how severe the correction will be.

When the bear arrives, what will happen to global and especially good value markets?

No  one knows the answer to this question.

What we do know is that the equally weighted, good value market Pifolios have the greatest potential long term and that math based trailing stops can be used to protect against a secular global stock market correction when it comes.

My fifty years of global investing experience helps take advantage of numerous long term cycles that are part of the universal math that affects all investments.

What you get when you subscribe to Pi.

You immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Platinum Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Platinum Dip 2018” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Platinum Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

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Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

In 2018 I celebrate my 52nd anniversary in the investing business and 50th year of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

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The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

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This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2017” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

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Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

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Read Wired Articles Things That Make the Earth Go Hm

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Ecuador Earthquake Facts & Figures


Ecuador is a land of volcanoes and geological faults so Ecuador does have earthquakes. Here is an excerpt from a full report just emailed to our Ecuador Living subscribers.

The recent earthquake in Haiti sent many readers scuttling to their keyboards so they could ask about earthquakes in Ecuador.

One reader wrote:

“Since Ecuador is obviously in a earthquake zone, how many of the buildings you have recommended or mentioned over time are built to earthquake standards? It seems you never mention anything concerning this, or if you have not very often. This is putting people in possible severe danger if they are buying into a condo or home without making them aware of this very important point. Cheaper structures mean very little if a person has to risk their life in that earthquake known region.”

Another sent this missive:

Having been to Ecuador I know that Ecuador is earthquake country.  Given what’s happening now in Haiti when I read about high rise building in Ecuador I wonder what the construction is.  Is the potential for earthquakes taken into consideration re: construction?  It might interest folks considering living in Ecuador or investing there – perhaps a good topic for one of your great emails.  It would certainly interest me! Thanks!

Ask and you shall receive… so I have listed some Ecuador earthquake facts below.

We do take care to live in a healthy way.   Earthquakes are not especially healthy… but after thinking about this my conclusion is that it is cities are a bigger risk than earthquakes.   Earthquakes do not scare me.  Cities do.

This is one reason that Merri and I live in the country everywhere… Florida… North Carolina and Ecuador. Cities are more dangerous places than countrysides…  during earthquakes…  hurricanes…simply driving in traffic… or even taking a breath.

This appears to really be the case with earthquakes!

An excerpt from a  report by Geohazards International entitled Vulnerable Communities points this out when it says:

At Increasing Peril

Earthquake risk is great and growing for people in cities of developing countries. Since 1900, four of every five deaths caused by earthquakes have occurred in developing countries. In the year 1950, two of every three people living in earthquake-threatened cities lived in developing countries; by 2000, that number had increased to nine of every ten.

Little has been done to reduce the risk that these people confront. Most people living in cities of industrialized nations are aware of their earthquake risk; in developing countries, most people are not. Building codes are common in industrialized nations; in developing countries, they are not. When building codes do exist, they are often not enforced. Experts in earth science and earthquake engineering in developing countries are few in number, ill-equipped, and isolated.

Yet much can be done. Since 1900, industrialized countries have markedly improved their construction practices and emergency response capabilities. As a result, the average number of fatalities per fatal earthquake in those countries has been reduced by a factor of 10. Over the same period of time, the average number of fatalities per fatal earthquake in developing countries has remained unchanged.

The growth of Urban Earthquake Risk

If earthquakes terrify you, then you may want to avoid Ecuador and the entire ring of fire.

The US Geological survey glossary describes the Ring of FireThe “Ring of Fire”, also called the Circum-Pacific belt, is the zone of earthquakes surrounding the Pacific Ocean — about 90% of the world’s earthquakes occur there. The next most seismic region (5-6% of earthquakes) is the Alpide belt (extends from Mediterranean region, eastward through Turkey, Iran, and northern India.

Ecuador-earthquakes

If, however, you are like me… there is too much there to let the fear of earthquakes stop me… being in Oregon… California… Ecuador.

So the question is… are there places to avoid?

Let’s begin with Quito. Wikepedia says of Quito:

San Francisco de Quito, most often called Quito, is the capital city of Ecuador in northwestern South America. It is located in north-central Ecuador in the Guayllabamba river basin, on the eastern slopes of Pichincha,[1] an active stratovolcano in the Andes mountains.

The largest eruption occurred in 1660 when more than 10 inches (25 cm) of ash covered the city.[8] There were three minor eruptions in the 1800s. The latest eruption was recorded on August 23, 2006, when a few puffs of smoke and a large amount of ash were deposited on the city. Although not devastating, the eruption caused significant disruption of activities, including closing of the international airport. It is unlikely that any serious activity will occur in the near future, and the topography of the volcano is such that, even if a major eruption were to occur, lava flows would head into the almost-unpopulated areas west of the volcano, sparing Quito, which lies to the east.

An article at History.com entitled “Earthquake destroys landmarks in Quito” provides more details:

Quito, Ecuador, the site of many powerful earthquakes through the years, suffers one of its worst when a tremor kills 5,000 people and destroys some of the most famous buildings in South America, on this day in 1859.

Quito’s history of earthquakes in modern times began with a monster tremor on February 4, 1797. Not only did an estimated 40,000 people in the city perish, but the quake activated the Cotopaxi volcano. This led, in turn, to lava raining down on the town of Ambato. Sixty years later, Quito had been rebuilt and little was remembered about the devastating quake of 1797.

But, at 8:30 a.m. on March 22, nearly six full minutes of violent shaking struck the city. Buildings, churches and homes throughout the city were demolished by the tremor. Some of the area’s most prominent buildings collapsed, including the Government Palace, the Archepiscopal Palace, the Chapel of El Sagrario and the Temple of the Augustines. Despite the loss of so many structures, the death toll was not as high as it could have been. Coming at 8:30 in the morning, the quake was just late enough that most of the residents had left their homes, where they would have been most vulnerable.

Following this disaster, Quito was not hit again by a major earthquake until August 1949, when a tremor south of the city killed 6,000 and left 100,000 people homeless.

So does one avoid Quito?  That of course is your choice, but not me. There is too much I like about this city to let such a minimal risk thwart my desires.

How about avoiding tall buildings in Quito?

We don’t plan to live in a tall building anywhere…but we still love many parts of Quito.

One of my favorite places in Quito is Techo del Mundo, a restaurant on the top floor of Hotel Quito… an old 13 story building. The restaurant has great panoramic views of Quito in all directions.

Here is Techo del Mundo.

Ecuador-bed-&-breakfasts

The restaurant has great panoramic views of Quito.

Ecuador-bed-&-breakfasts

Breakfast at Techo del Mundo is one of my favorite meals and earthquake worries will not stop me from going there.
Are Ecuador skyscrapers safe?
Ecuador is no Haiti.  Inexperienced travelers, especially those who have never visited Ecuador might divide the world into two categories… developed and developing.  Such thinking creates a distorted view. There are many categories of developing countries and Ecuador falls into a much higher category and has high standards of construction and numerous construction safeguards.
My Ecuador attorney wrote:  By reviewing legal issues relating to construction in Ecuador and after talking with several architects, I found that there are no specific legal requirements, but rather very high technical standards for structural design of buildings which have to be approved by the planning departments in the municipalities prior to obtain the construction permits. They have several categories of earthquake resistance buildings thus they (municipalities) demand higher structural safety according to the use of the building: hospitals, schools, church, etc.

Geohazrad International reports:  In September 1992, an eighteen-month project began to assess the earthquake hazard and risk to Quito, and, using earthquake scenarios, to design sustainable programs to mitigate that risk.

A multi-national group of seismologists, geologists, soils engineers, structural engineers and city planners developed, assembled and analyzed the technical data. This enabled them to estimate three likely future earthquake events in Ecuador, including distribution of earthquake damage in Quito.

This information was then used to design an earthquake scenario. Vividly written in non-technical language, the scenario raised public awareness of the earthquake threat and motivated government, business and community leaders to develop mitigation projects.

A group of international and Ecuadorian specialists from business and industry, city government, urban planning, emergency services and infrastructure then developed recommendations within their fields of expertise for reducing earthquake risk in Quito.

LONG-TERM OUTCOMES:

•    An Earthquake Safety Advisory Board was established to develop, implement, monitor and regularly update a comprehensive earthquake risk reduction program for Quito.

•    The Quito School Earthquake Safety Project, initiated by GHI and Ecuador’s Escuela Politécnica Nacional in December 1994, created retrofit designs for a representative sample of high-risk public schools in Quito. The relatively inexpensive process of identifying high-risk schools and designing their retrofits generated sufficient local funding to pay for retrofit building construction.

•    Interest generated by the Earthquake Risk Management and School Retrofit Projects led to national legislation in Ecuador that significantly strengthened building codes for public and private structures.

ecuador-earthquakes

You can read the full Geohazards International report here on Quito earthquake preparedness here.

There have been other parts of Ecuador that have suffered earthquakes. You can learn about them and their codes in our full Ecuador Living Report. Learn how to subscribe here.

I have asked contacts around Ecuador to share more on what they know.

Angel Proano who is developing the Falconi homes development in Cotacachi wrote:

Dear Gary,  We are very saddened by what happened in Haiti, but it is important to inform the people coming to live in Ecuador, that in an emergency they should always make good decisions before buying a property.

Builders must take precautions before making a condo or a house, but unfortunately many of them save money by not buying the best quality materials, or constructed with the technique well suited.

The adobe building is very dangerous in case of earthquakes, also built in a loose soil, or too humid can cause cracks in the house.

Patricio Falconi knows that Ecuador is a country that is not free from earthquakes like the rest of the world is that it uses the best construction techniques as the foundation stone, iron chains at the bases of walls and other chains that melt into the walls before putting the roof. (attached sent photos as an example).

The combination of wood and brick with iron is the best building in an earthquake, our houses are very safe.

Also in the town have organized a group of emergency, to be prepared in case of danger. This group has the backing of government, the ministry of health, fire, police and local authority.  Kind Regards,  Angel Proaño

A close friend in Guayaquil wrote: “Gary,  Guayaquil has minor tremors compared to Quito but there are safety standards in all modern buildings.”

Carlos Tobar who is looking after our Quito tours wrote:  “I do not know the codes off the the top of my head but will find out more and let you know on Monday.”

Kjetil Haugan who built Palmazul and Vistazul wrote: “I know that our project is built with earthquakes in mind and the walls are almost the double the size of of normal walls but I am not sure if this is an requirement.  I’ll let you know more next week.”

I am updating Ecuador Living subscribers as replies come in.

The main reasons for choosing the areas where we live… The Blue Ridge,  Ecuador and Mt. Dora Florida… is we like the people… and the land.  Yet we gain  extra comfort from being out of cities.

Your comfort is the key as well.   Your chances of being hurt in an earthquake… hurricane, tornado… flood… an airplane crash… rattlesnake bite or being struck by lightning… are so statistically low that you should be sure to do what you love first… exercise caution against natural disasters, second.Wherever you are we hope your tsunami’s are of success and hurricanes of fulfilling activity… because it’s natural to have abundance instead of disaster.

Gary

Join us at a seminar or tour to share ways to invest, do business and live that protect as they provide joy, satisfaction, better health and enhanced wealth.

Join us in February or March.Feb. 11-14   Quantum Wealth Florida -International Investing & Internet Business, Mt. Dora, Fl.

February 15-16 Travel to Quito and tour Quito

February 17     Travel Quito to Manta

February 18-19  Manta & Mid Coast Real Estate Tour

February 20 Travel Manta to Cotacachi

February 21-22 North Andes, Imbabura & Cotacachi Real Estate Tour

February 23-24  Quito & Mindo Real Estate Tour

February 25 Travel Quito Cuenca

February 26-27  Cuenca Real Estate Tour

March 2010

March 11-14     Super Thinking + Spanish Course, Mt. Dora, Fl.

March 15    Travel to Quito

March 16 Travel Quito Cotacachi

March 17-18  North Andes, Imbabura & Cotacachi Real Estate Tour

March 19-20    Cotacachi Shamanic Tour

March 21  Travel Cotacachi to Manta

March 22-23   Manta & Mid Coast Real Estate Tour

March 24 Travel Manta to Cuenca

March 25-26 Cuenca Real Estate Tour

March 27  Travel Cuenca to Salinas

Mar. 28-29   Salinas & South Coast Real Estate Tour

There is one week left to gain the largest savings on our Ecuador tours.

The Ecuador airfare war makes it cheaper to get to Ecuador than ever before… and there is still time to enjoy great Ecuador tour savings.

You enjoy discounts by attending multiple seminars and tours. Here are our multi tour adventure discounts.

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Five Pack… 5 seminar courses & tours  $1,999 Couple $2,699 Save $496 single or $1,046 on a couple or more

Six Pack… 6 seminars courses & tours  $2,199 Couple $3,099 Save $795 single or $1,395 on a couple or more

Even Better.  Greater Savings. Our 2010 International Club membership allows you and a guest to attend as many of the 51 courses and tours we’ll sponsor and conduct in 2010  (fees would be $40,947 for all these courses individually) is only $2,999.

The International club fee rises to $3,500 January 25 2010. Enroll in the International Club now at the original fee of $2,999. Save $501 extra before January 25, 2010.

Because holiday expenses often tighten the winter cash flow, you can enroll with three monthly payments… $1,025 in January… $1,025 in February and $1,025 in March 2010.

If you join the International Club, the entrance fee for 2010 is $2,999 (until January 2010).  Your attendance fees at all courses will be waived. You and a guest of you choice can attend courses worth $40,947.You can calculate the savings as our schedule of all 2010 courses here.
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