Tag Archive | "Dow 30"

Ecuador’s Season


Our belief in Ecuador, as a place to live and invest, comes in part because of its position in the seventh wave of the industrial revolution.

We conducted our International Investing & Business Course last weekend here at the Jefferson Lansing Golf resort clubhouse.

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We reviewed cycles and seasons… how Ecuador opportunity and business in Ecuador really pick up at about this time of the year.  Ecuador’s up season is coming up.

Seasonality is a really important factor of investing to keep in mind… especially right now… as we will see below.

First, in that course we looked at the Asset Allocation of my portfolio and…

Ecuador Property      15%
US Property                46%
Total Real Estate   61%
Equities                           3%
Emerging Bonds            9%
Bonds                             14%
Cash                                13%
Total Liquid              39%

Why I have so little in the stock market now is due to cycles, seasonality and personal values.

Regarding seasonality, October is the bewitching month of  shares.

We viewed how, since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the western economy has been moving through fifteen-year upward and downward cycles.  We saw how we are in the tenth year of a potentially 15 year downward wave.

Since the 1800s the stock market has moved in 30 year waves, peaking in bubbles and ending in troughs. Technology, warfare and politics are all related to these cycles. The phrase that coined this great social economic transformation we call the “Industrial Revolution,”  according to historian David Landes, was first in a letter of 1799 written by French envoy Louis-Guillaume Otto.

Since that time mankind has enjoyed ten boom cycles… each created by new technology. Each boom has been followed by a bust… a bear market… a down wave that lasts about 15 years…. for 310 years.

So it is appropriate that in information era up wave  (the dotcom bubble) the Dow topped at 10,336  and then crashed Oct 1, 1999… 300 years after the first revolution began.

Here is a chart of the Dow in that 10th upward period from www.finance.yahoo.com.

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That crash began the current 15 year side ways model that marks the downward cycle.   The peaks and valleys, consistent with the downward wave has slaughtered many investors which, I explained at the course,  is why I have so few equities now.

Seasonality is why I  am not buying equities in October as well.

We viewed how seasonality was at work. Over 30 years the Dow has grown 8.16% overall but all of that growth and more (8.36% per annum average)  has come in the months of November through April. The average annual growth per annum over thirty years in May  to October is only 0.37%.

In other words… October is a volatile month for shares.  In fact the worst days of  the US stock market have been in October.

Black Thursday was October 24th in 1929. During that frenetic day nearly 13 million shares changed hands, nearly four times the norm.  Black Tuesday was October 29, 1929.   The market was slashed again leaving the Dow 40% down in that week.

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Black Monday  was October 19, 1987, global equity markets crashed, starting in Hong Kong. Panic rushed to Europe and then knocked the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) down 22.61%, its largest one day drop ever.

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In short the good equity growth season is about to begin.

Market timing is never more important than the search for value… but it sure can help the search for value.

Seasonality studies give support to the current bear market recovery but suggest the support is best after October.

Plus watch out for a severe October market correction!

Thomas Fischer from Jyske Global Asset Management was with us and pointed out that JGAM’s  low risk portfolios have a very underweight position in equities as well.

During the course we also looked at the importance of personal values in investing by enjoying the process.

We saw some great autumnal beauty…

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in the Blue Ridge during the course.  We walked some glorious paths.

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Yet this is an El Nino year… a cold winter is predicted.  A long one maybe.

Excerpts from a 19 August 2009 UN New Center article entitled “El Niño weather pattern likely to continue into 2010, explains why: The United Nations agency dealing with weather, climate and water says an El Niño event has begun in the tropical Pacific and is likely to continue into early 2010.

El Niño and La Niña bring significant temperature fluctuations in surface waters of the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean: an El Niño event sees a rise in temperatures and La Niña witnesses a drop in normal temperatures.

These temperature changes are strongly linked to major climate fluctuations around the world, especially in Latin America, Australia and East Asia, which can last for a whole year or more. Both El Niño and La Niña can disrupt the normal weather patterns and have widespread impacts on climate in many parts of the world.

The UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said today that sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific had risen to between 0.5 and 1 degree Celsius warmer than normal by the end of June, with similar temperatures in July.

“Scientific assessments of these observations indicate that this warming resembles the early stages of an El Niño event,” the Geneva-based agency stated in a news release.

In its most recent update on the subject, WMO stated that the expectation is for El Niño conditions to very likely prevail through the remainder of 2009 and into the first quarter of 2010.

Last year our autumn paths in October turned…

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to this in November.

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Here was the weather report yesterday Oct.14 2009 at Asheweather.comRainy, cold, and raw about sums it up for today. High temperatures for the day were early this morning; We’ll slip into the lower 40s for the rest of the daytime as rather steady rain continues. Watch out for thick, dangerous fog along the Blue Ridge today through much of Thursday. And yeah, we weren’t kidding about that weekend snow shower thing. Gory details below.

Here are some weather statistics for our area that suggest what  happens in Southwest Virginia and Northwest North Carolina (where we are in the Blue Ridge) during an El Nino year.

Roanoke’s snowiest month on record was January 1966, with more than 41 inches. That was during an El Nino.

Roanoke’s coldest winter on record was that of 1977-78, which also had more than 37 inches of snow. That was during an El Nino.

Roanoke got 19 inches of snow on Feb. 10 and 11, 1983. That was during an El Nino.

Roanoke’s snowiest year of the 1950s (1957-58), second snowiest of the 1990s (1992-93) and snowiest of the 2000s (2002-03) each in the 28-to-30-inch range occurred during El Ninos.

Long term patterns in weather or stock markets are no guarantees… but by looking at the odds wouldn’t you rather invest in equities at a time that historically has shown the highest appreciation year after year.   And though snow and cold are not guaranteed up north, wouldn’t you rather have this in the dead of winter (Mt Imbabura) or…

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this?

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Ma, Merri and our friend Steve Hankins at our condos in San Clemente, Ecuador.

This is why we added three more courses and tours in December in our 2009 schedule and will have even more Ecuador courses in January though March 2010.

The remaining 2009 courses are below.

Gary

Join our Ecuador courses and tours October, November or December.

The greatest asset of all is the ability to labor at what you love wherever you live. This brings everlasting wealth.

This is why we are providing a special three for one offer with our  course Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business

This course can help you create your own internet business.

Our emailed course “Tangled Webs We Weave – How to Have Your Own Web Based Business” is a continuing educational program.  You receive the first 28 lessons when you enroll and a new lesson every week or two.

This course teaches how to create a web based business and is developed from the ongoing experiences that we have from our successful and profitable internet business.

This course is well worth the enrollment fee of $299… but currently you also receive two additional courses FREE.

The other two courses are #1: International Business Made EZ, and #2: Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.

These two courses have sold for $398 and thousands have paid this price. We add them to your course, at no added cost, as I believe they will help you develop a better business in these crucial times..

Even Better Get All three Courses Free

To make this offer even more compelling,  I am giving everyone who enrolls in all our seminars or tours for any one month, October, November or December, “Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business Course,”  “Self Fulfilled- How to be a Self Publisher” and “International Business Made EZ” free.

Head south to Ecuador!

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Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Oct. 25-26 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

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In Cotacachi the weather is always Spring like.  Here is the village plaza near our hotel Meson de las Flores.

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Let our friendly staff at Meson de las Flores serve you.

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

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This shorts weather photo was taken from our beach penthouse in February.

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Oct. 25-26 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

December 6-8 Beyond Logic Shamanic Tour

December 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

December 11-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Join us in the mountains and at the sea.  Attend more than one seminar and tour and save even more plus get the three emailed courses free.

Attend any two Ecuador seminar or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799

Read the entire UN article El Niño weather pattern likely to continue into 2010, says UN agency

Ecuador’s Got Milk & Honey


Ecuador is the land of milk and honey for less… really.

In a moment we’ll look at some global investing ideas. Or you can skip Ecuador milk and go directly to Global Investment Thought.

First, how about some raw milk?

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Our hotel Meson de las Flores makes its own ice cream with fresh raw milk from local diaries, plus they…

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make and press their own fresh butter.

Our health is enhanced with raw milk and in Ecuador raw milk is easy to obtain. We get it for the hotel every day. The cost is about 45 cents a quart, delivered fresh daily from the local dairy.

In the US, it’s a task.  To get it in North Carolina, we have to buy it from a friend of a friend who will not say who produces the raw milk.

In Florida I noticed a health food store selling raw milk and raw organic yogurt labeled “for pet use only.”   We used to buy our French salt in a similar way “for deer licks only”!

How sad that informed adults have to play such games to get what is good that they want.

There is very little raw milk sold in America and this is sad as it’s a highly health-promoting food. The government story is that raw milk can carry disease. More to the point pasteurizing milk extends shelf life and makes it easier for big business to be more profitable.

One can become sick from any contaminated food as the nation has learned from meat, spinach and peanut butter all to well.

In California where raw milk can be sold, millions have consumed it without a single person getting sick. During the same period, there were many instances where people became so ill from pasteurized milk they died!

Raw milk provides minerals, beneficial bacteria such as lactobacillus acidolphilus, vitamins and enzymes and in Ayurved is considered one of the best foods there is. Pasteurized non organic milk is viewed as poison as the process changes the structure of the milk proteins and destroys the milk’s beneficial bacteria.

Pasteurized cow’s milk has been associated with intestinal distress, iron-deficiency anemia, allergies, osteoporosis, arthritis, heart disease, cancer and more.

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With so much sun and plenty of rain, the grass is rich, even in Cotacachi at 7,500 feet altitude for…

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these organic cows.

Raw Milk Delight

One great food made from raw milk was taught to Merri and me by a shaman here in Ecuador. I call it Sun Yogurt. Get raw milk. Boil it. Let it cool. Pour it in a green bottle. Add a bit of yogurt if you wish. Set it in the sun for the day. That night you will have a rich creamy almost custard yogurt! It’s rich and delicious.

In Ecuador we buy fresh, raw milk by the pail full… creamy to make our own butter, ice cream and yogurt.

There is great fresh, non fermented (queso fresco) cheese in the markets.

ecuador-food

Nearby our hotel there is also organic dairy and Swiss cheese factory. Here is the barnyard and…

ecuador-farm

here are their cows.

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Their equipment.

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Their cave filled with great Swiss cheese.

Ecuador-milk

We serve this Ecuador cheese at our hotel.

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Ecuador also has really great honey that creates some export income opportunity… like this honey and Macadamia nuts offered by the Ecuador Honey Company. We”ll look at this in more detail in tomorrow’s message.

ecuador-honey

Learn more about our Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour here

Global Investment Thought

Jyske Global Asset Management’s recent update points out what is becoming obvious… the global economy is picking up.  JGAM said:

*  The Case-Shiller U.S. home price index rose for the second month in a row in June.

* The German IFO business confidence survey came in above expectations, rising for a fifth month in a row.

* Australia’s leading economic indicators continue to suggest a broad recovery over the coming months.

* BCA’s (Bank Credit Analyst) Global Inflation Diffusion Index highlights that most components are falling. Furthermore, inflation typically responds to fluctuations in growth with a 1-1½ year lag, and this time around there is greater slack in the global economy.

In other words, the economy is recovering and inflation is down.

The immediate risks are that traditionally September and October are the most dangerous months for the US stock market.   Signs of a double dip recession coinciding with the traditional market dip could create a new wave of self fulfilling fear.

This will create a good buying opportunity both in equities and real estate.

What’s a Double Dip?

I rarely allow myself to eat ice cream but recently while visiting grand kids, we took them to a Creamery and can attest to the fact that a Sweet Cream and Chocolate double dip on a waffle cone is,  taste wise, pretty darn good.

Double Dips in the global economy do not bode so well, however.

A recession is a time of economic contraction and have always been followed by a return to economic expansion.  However once in awhile when economic distortions that are being sorted out are severe, when the expansion finally starts, it does not continue.   The economy contracts and dips back into recession again.

Economies now are improving globally.  Yet unemployment and foreclosures remain a problem.  Later this year  a second “double dip” recession could return as it did in 1980, then again in  1981-82.

Current conditions are quite different now than in the early 1980s, the 1980-1983 downturn was eventually turned around with major federal spending and a major tax cut.

The period 2007-2010 cannot expect the tax cut which is a shame because Federal spending tends to be less efficient than tax cuts, Federal spending is usually inefficient. Tax cuts stimulate business and inroads into new forms of productivity.

Stock markets tend to do well (as they are now) in the middle of recessions. During the worst of all 1930s depression, the Dow rose 66.7 percent in 1933 and 38.5 percent in 1935. This is because big value oriented investors look ahead.  Eventually economies recover and  grow. This is when value investors cash in.

Yet the poor employment scenario suggests that the equity recovery could be modest.  If this fact teams up with the nervousness acquired in 2008 and the autumnal downward forces… the most likely time for a market set back will be September and October.

With this in mind… values are good now for investors who can afford to buy and ride through another downturn that could last a year or so.

Until next message, may all you life be rich and delicious.

Gary

The greatest asset of all is the ability to earn wherever you live, which brings everlasting wealth.

This is why we offer our course Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business.

A clear mind and healthy body are also a vital assets… plus a second language is a powerful diversification tool.

This is why if  you attend either our Ecuador Super Thinking plus Spanish seminar in September or our North Carolina International Business & Investing seminar in October I will email you our Tangled Web… How to Have an Internet Business Course (offered at $299) free. You save $299.

Here are comments from a reader about the way we help:  Hi Merri, I wanted to thank you once again for your recommendation
 that I try Sol de Vida. I have had time for thirteen treatments but 
now it’s time for me to return home. The people there are wonderful 
and I’m happy to say there has been a dramatic improvement in my
(used-to-be) “bum” leg.  I can now walk much longer distances and
 remain pain free!
 
FYI, Sol de Vida changed to a  new facility near Meson.  

I enjoyed my stay here at Meson and in Cotacachi and hope to return
 sometime soon… thanks again for your assistance!

Join us at a seminar and tour and have a pain reduction treatment at the same time.

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Super Thinking + Spanish Course

Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Learn more about global investing, how to have an international business and diversification in Ecuador at the seminar.

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina with our webmaster  David Cross & Thomas Fischer of JGAM

October 16-18 Ecuador Southern coastal tour (early sign up before Sept. 1, $499 per person).

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Oct. 25-26 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador Seminar

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador seminar or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799

Ecuador Tickets


See how to save up to $658 on Ecuador tickets to the Galapagos Island tours plus one of the most important international investing thoughts you may see this year.

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First, here is an international investing thought we reviewed at our  recent International Investment and Business Course. Then we’ll look more at Ecuador tickets and how to get Galapagos cruise savings.

Yesterday’s message International Investment Gains looked at the fact that the Dow has moved in 15 to 17 year up and down cycles.  We saw that the Dow is into the twelfth year of a down cycle that started in 1998.  When we compared the Dow’s movements for the last two years to the equivalent time in the previous (1968 to 1982) down cycle, we saw that these two years had an amazing 93% correlation.

This led us to the question…What is next?  See below in blue what the Dow did between 1980 and 1982.

The chart below from Moore Research compares the Dow from 1978 through 1980 to the Dow of the last 18 months. The Blue line is what happened in the equivalent period in the 1970s for the next two years.  Ignore the black line (this is how the Dow has just moved). There should not be and is little correlation.

What is important is understanding the blue line. This what the Dow did during in the equivalent period (1978 to 1980) in the 1968 to 1982 downturn. The black line represent the Dow’s recent activity and should not matter.

This is a really important international investment thought. If history repeats,  if the Dow’s movement from now to mid 2011 has as strong a correlation as 2007 to 2009 had to 1978 to 1980, then the current uptick in the US market is simply bait leading most investors to slaughter!

This chart suggests that soon we will see a sharp correction in the market followed by a period of  very volatile sideways movement.

international-investments

Jyske Global Asset Management is suspicious of markets as as well.  Thomas Fischer, Senior VP JGAM, spoke at our July 2009 International Investment Course about the fact that the current upwards trend in the market is not supported by economic fundamentals.

He reconfirmed this when he shared market comments yesterday that said:

Another week with positive trends in global markets. The MSCI World Index is up 1.37% this week but uncertainty about the direction of the market is beginning to show. On Tuesday the Chinese stocks plunged 5% as investors became nervous about the fast share price gains in the Shanghai Composite Index of almost 80% in 2009. The banking industry has seen some very good second quarter reports, but many banks have dramatically increased their provisions against bad loans due to continued pressure on the credit environment. On Tuesday the share price for Deutsche Bank tumbled 11% even though it reported a net income of USD $1.4 billion in the second quarter as bad loan provisions of USD $1.4 billion spooked investors. Consumers are still “maxed out” and with rising unemployment and none existing wage pressures. It will probably take some time before consumers return to the shopping malls in droves as indicated in the consumer confidence number for July showing a fall from 49.3 to 46.6. The big $64,000 question is whether we will have inflation or deflation and at the moment it certainly does not look like inflation. The Fed’s latest survey (Beige Book) shows an economy that is still very weak and the so called  “green shoots” will take a long time to grow.

Jyske Bank and JGAM are one of the few truly international banks that still provides a service for Americans. Learn more about JGAM from Thomas Fischer at fischer@jgam.com

In other words… be very cautious about speculating in the equity market.

See an entire report on this as a Multi Currency Portfolios Course subscriber.

Or join us to update what is happening at at our October 9, 10,  11 IBEZ North Carolina Seminar

Here is what a delegate shared about our July seminar:

Merri, My wife and I would like to thank you and Gary for a wonderful course. We thoroughly enjoyed all the information presented by Gary, Thomas and David. And we thank you for your hospitality with having us to your lovely “piece of paradise” in Lansing. The lunch was delicious and your presentation of import/export items was quite interesting.  We look forward to visiting Ecuador in September of 2010. And we look forward to visiting and staying at your hotel in Cotocatchi. Thank you again for a truly life changing and life enhancing weekend. Best regards,

Now let’s look at how a  $119 Ecuador Living subscription can help you save up to $658 on Ecuador Galapagos tickets on one of the most luxurious Galapagos cruises on this catamaran the M/S Nina with this excerpt from the Ecuador Living article Ecuador Galapagos Tickets.

Our friend Kjetil Haugan, the largest Galapagos Ecuador cruise operator just sent us this note.

Dear Friends!  Greetings from Haugan Cruises!

I would like to remind you of the promotions on our fleet for July until December 2009. Please find our special deals below.

The M/C Nina.

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The Nina is also a 16 passenger luxury catamaran, with four main deck double or twin cabins, two single cabins and four upper deck  double cabins, with a king size bed.

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Nina King

All the cabins have a private balcony and the windows can be opened, except for the single cabins that have sealed windows, but still have a little balcony.

The Nina offers eight day cruises only and the normal cruise fee is $4,390 per person in a double cabin.

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Nina Deck

We are offering 2 x 1 deals August 25 – September 1 and Nov 24th to Dec 1st.

We are offering a $1,000 discount  + a flight ticket (Quito to the Galapagos) for August 18 – 25th and September  8 – 15th September 15th – 22nd, Oct 13th – 20th, Oct 20th – 27th and Oct 27th – Nov 03.

For additional information and added discounts see Ecuador Galapagos Tickets.

This is the ticket to the Galapagos, Ecuador!

Haugan tours pays tour operators commissions on these tours but as publishers we do not accept commissions so pass this on to our subscribers in the form of savings that amount to as much as $658.

If you are an Ecuador Living subscriber, contact us to calculate your 15% discount for your Ecuador Galapagos tour.

If you are not an Ecuador Living subscriber and want to go to the Galapagos, you can save money AND have your subscription free!  Learn how to subscribe here.

Gary

Join Merri me and Thomas Fischer of JGAM and our webmaster David Cross in North Carolina this October.

Learn more about global investing, how to have an international business and early retirement in Ecuador at the course.

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Or join us in Ecuador and learn more about living and retiring in Ecuador.

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Tour

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two.

See other Ecuador tickets to Galapagos cruises here.

Ecuador Property Insights


Yesterday’s message looked at insights on patience and value. If  you missed that message click here.

Patience and the never ending quest for value are vital in investing and buying real estate in Ecuador or anywhere.

Value is really hard to understand in the real estate and equity market now because the bubble of 2007 created many false illusions.  This creates the need for even more patience.

The value of a house is twofold… the value of a roof overhead and the value of whatever price it can be resold.

These are unpredictable times.   Basing a potential resale on previous inflated bubble prices can be a great error.

For example,  after months of searching, Merri and I made our first offer for property in Florida.  Our offer is half the seller’s asking price.

This was really hard for me to do, but after looking at everything I had to come in with this price.  Here is the note I sent to the broker with the offer.

We appreciate your help and attach our offer for the property.

In today’s market, value is really hard to determine because of the economic instability and uncertainty of when markets will rebound. History suggests we won’t see a full recovery for six to ten years… but there is no guarantee.   Because our offer is substantially less than the asking price, I have tried to apply some logic looking at this as a value oriented investor.  So here are the seven reasons for our offer price.

First, our main goal is as investors and we expect to buy at good value. Since there is so much uncertainty we will err on the low side rather than take risk.  We are in no hurry and there are plenty of houses we have seen that we could enjoy for our winters.  If this offer does not work we have several more houses we are ready to make an offer on.    A really fair value is an important part of our offer and in this market we expect to get one.

Second, this property is valued at an even lower by eppraisal.com at realestate.yahoo.com.

Third, we offered more than the lowest appraisal.

There are two other higher internet appraisals but we have gone with the lower of the three for the reasons above and below.

Fourth, as you can see at http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Eustis-Florida/
The median sales price in Eustis has dropped over 35% in the last year and there are 496 properties for sale.

This page says:  “Average price per square foot for Eustis FL was $71, a decrease of 45.8% compared to the same period last year. The median sales price for homes in Eustis FL for Feb 09 to Apr 09 was $122,000 based on 115 home sales. Compared to the same period one year ago, the median home sales price decreased 35.3%, or $66,600, and the number of home sales increased 42%.

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Fifth, we are buying into a market with falling prices so prices may go even lower as you can see in the zillow.com estimate below. This chart estimates the five year value of this house.

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Sixth, we are buying into a market with a large inventory.

There are currently 496 resales and new homes in Eustis according to Trulia, including 299 homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process.

All of this means that this property could be hard to sell and that any price rise could be a long period of time away.

Seventh, this offer is more than the current debt the owner holds so though it leaves them with a loss on their purchase price, it does provide a mortgage payoff and leaves them with some cash. Otherwise they could be holding this property, and all the expenses,  for quite some time.  In a year’s time the property could still be unsold with a lower value and the owners would have had to outlay more in cash.

This places the sellers’ (who bought in 2004) position in a better circumstance compared to having invested in the Dow Jones Industrial Index.
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As the chart from finance.yahoo below shows had they invested in the Dow instead of the house in 2004 the index was 10,410 then.  The Dow rose to 14,093 by late 2007.  Had they sold then in 2007 they would have gained a 40% profit. Then within a year the index fell to 6,626, 36% below the 2004 level.  A 36% loss in the Dow instead of real estate their investment would be worse then the loss they will take if they sell at the price I am offering.

This stock market comparison is important. As an investor, I have a choice. I can buy property or equities.  If I buy equities they are about 50% less than they were and they are mostly lower than five years ago. 

Now we will be patient.

Before I made the offer, I reviewed the deal with a close friend who has been a real estate broker and developer for many years.

He wrote something worth reading:

“Gary, As a realtor, I rarely find a fellow realtor who has good appraisal methods. The research and valuation methods you have employed in your study are in the 98th percentile of methods used by professional realtors.

If a seller wants to sell, there are three things that do not affect the selling price: (1)What they paid, (2)What they owe, and (3)What they want. Try to explain this to a seller though.

Please stick to your guns because as you pointed out, this is a buyer’s market. Don’t get emotionally attached.  The key is to be ready to offer on numerous properties. As you evidently are. Sometimes walking away and coming back a few weeks later puts the seller in a different frame of mind. Sometimes another property is waiting around the corner.

It is always a good idea to have a neutral party representing the transaction, if not an agent representing your interests only.

Make sure that you choose the title company, not the selling party. This will avoid many conflicts of interest.  Any deposit money should be held in escrow at that title insurance company. Do not give earnest money to any other party. Never give any money directly to the homeowner, no matter what they might request in the contract. Real estate companies should not hold the deposit money because I have seen them try to get a piece of the leftovers if a transaction fails to close. Oftentimes it is not their fault that a transaction does not close. They figure they have already done their work. They still want their fees. Don’t let that become your problem.

Whoever gets the deposit money, ask them specifically if they have any fees due if the transaction does not close. Ask what those fees are. Neither me nor any of my clients have ever paid a fee if the transaction does not close.

This is good advice when you buy property in the USA, Ecuador or anywhere!

Gary

Join us at an upcoming Ecuador or North Carolina course or tour.

July 3-6 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

July 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

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it is in a quiet place and it has a garden directly below the house.

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Here are Ecuador real estate tour delegates checking the house.

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We also look at property around Lake Quicocha for sale.

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July 10-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course

Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 9-11 IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

Nov. 6-8 IBEZ Ecuador

Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two.

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two.