Tag Archive | "currency trends"

Double Dollar Warning


Excerpts from our latest Purposeful investing Course update (Pi) shows a double/dollar warning.

This update looked the ENR Asset Management Portfolio that Pi created and tracks based on the recommendations of  ENR Asset Management in Montreal, Canada (1).  They are one of only a few SEC registered asset managers who manage funds in overseas banks for US clients.

The first dollar warning shows that there is US dollar weakness in the long term.  ENR made these points.

The U.S. debt ceiling remains unresolved and must be extended by the middle of October. The U.S. Treasury is already engaged in unorthodox financial engineering since the summer as it manages the nations’ monetary and debt commitments. In August 2011, Congress went down to the wire, delaying raising the debt ceiling and triggered a big sell-off in stocks – the largest decline since the financial crisis. Moody’s also downgraded America’s debt in 2011 to AA.

According to a study from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), advanced economies are increasingly responsible for imbalances in the world economy with Germany overtaking China as the world’s leading net saver. Data also confirmed the United States continues to hold title as the world’s largest current-account deficit nation. The IMF warned that rising deficits and higher savings in Germany are fanning protectionist sentiment in the United States. Germany ran a current-account surplus of 8.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016 while China’s fell to 1.7% of GDP.

The United States finished the year with a current-account deficit worth 2.4% of GDP.  The UK current account deficit also grew and is the second-largest in the world after the United States.

ENR Asset Management offers many portfolios but it’s worth noting that the Multi Currency Sandwich  Portfolio has risen 6.7% this year simply due to US dollar decline.  The ENR Economic Outlook said:

Global Currency Sandwich Rallies 6.7%

As of August 14th, the ENR Global Currency Sandwich, including gold, has rallied 6.70% this year. Excluding gold, the currency basket gained 5.70%. Top performers this year in our sandwich are gold bullion (+11.7%), the Swedish krona (+10.9%), the Norwegian krone (+8%) and the Swiss franc (+4.6%). On June 30th, we also introduced the Canadian dollar to the currency basket (+1.9%) and the EUR (+3.1%). We dropped the Brazilian real on June 30th.

2017 ENR Global Currency Sandwich (Equally-Weighted):

EUR: Added on June 30, 2017. Guggenheim Currency Shares EURO Trust (NYSE-FXE)

Canadian dollar: Added on June 30, 2017

Brazilian real: Sold on June 30, 2017

Swedish krona: Guggenheim Currency Shares Swedish Krona Trust (NYSE-FXS)

Swiss franc: Guggenheim Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust (NYSE-FXF)

Norwegian Krone

Gold Bullion (OPTIONAL)

However ENR also warns that there may be a short term US dollar correction and says:

U.S. Dollar Heavily Oversold; Beware of Big Rally

Bearish bets against the American dollar hit a three-year high this recently as more speculators believe the Federal Reserve won’t hike interest rates again this year. If going long, the dollar was a very crowded trade heading into 2017, the opposite is now true in August as traders turn increasingly negative. Declining inflation this summer in the United States has served to cool the Fed’s rate-hike ambitions. In 2017, the USD Index has shed 9% against a basket of six major currencies. The largest constituent weighting in the USD Index is the EUR at 57.6%.

enr

Recently strong export data, rising consumer confidence and strong retail sales in July might force the Fed to tighten again. The American dollar is very oversold at current levels and we’d avoid selling dollars. According to the CFTC, speculative accounts boosted their net short positions on the dollar to $7.4 billion dollars for the week ending August 11.  That’s the highest short positioning since May 2014.

Using mathematical based value and trends analysis is important because short term recoveries can confuse investors and cause them to pay too much attention to short term volatility.

For example the article “Silver ETFs slide as dollar-bounces at www.benzinga.com (3)  says:

Though it is still in the doldrums relative to other currency exchange-traded funds, the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund UUP has perked up in recent sessions. The dollar’s awakening, albeit modest, is pressuring commodities and the related ETFs, including silver funds.

However, the chart below (from Forbes) shows that the back of US dollar strength really broke back in January of 2017.

forbes

Pi double checks value trends with trending algorithms processed by Tradestops.com (4).

In the case of the US dollar, we look at the Stock State Indicator and Volatility Quotient of the PowerShares Dollar Bull ETF. Tradestops shows that the dollar is trending down and has been since May 2017.

tradestops

This mathematical analysis shows that the trend of the US dollar index shifted downwards in early May. It reached an alert stage on May 9, 2017.  The trend eroded so quickly that a stop loss warning was issued May 22, 2017 and the bear trend remains now.

This ETF has a very low volatility quotient which suggests that we will not see any quick, strong reversal in this trend.

Learn more about the Purposeful investing Course below.

Gary

Borrow Low – Deposit High

Turn $250 into $51,888… in Four Years or Less.   If someone offers you a deal like this, I would normally say “Run as fast as you can!”

Yet in 1986. This is exactly what I wrote in a report, The Silver Dip”  that told how to borrow British pounds to buy silver.  I must admit it. I was wrong. Readers who followed the report made nearly that amount ($46,299 to be exact) in only one year!

I have been updating this report since.  The last update showed how to get 2% loans that turned $39.95 into $28,185 profit.

Now is the time to borrow low and earn high again because… an amazing investing trend is taking place.

Most investors will miss it.   You do not have to lose out.

Really?  Let’s take a look why.

I have been helping readers use a little known, easy loan investing technique for over 30 years.   Almost any investor can get the loans.

The $39.95 is for a report that explains how to borrow $10,000… no loan application required.   You’ll  get the lowest interest rates in town according a Barron’s 2017 online review.

Right now the loan interest rates are between 1.41% to 2.66%.

Here is what happened the first time I issued this report over three decades ago.

The year was 1986.  The price of silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce down to $4.85 in May 1986.  

Everyone was afraid of investing in silver.

But I had been investing and writing and speaking about global investments since 1968.   When I issued the Silver Dip in 1985 I  had nearly 20 years of experience, so knew that when fear rules a market, the chance of profits are high.

As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply of silver had fallen to 449.7 million ounces.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at that time.  Secondary recovery of silver was constricted by low prices as well.

Then a “special silver pricing position” fell into place.

I showed readers how to borrow 10,000 British pounds at cheap interest rates, to invest in silver.   A British pound at that time was worth $1.86 so the loan was sufficient to buy 3,835 ounces of silver at $4.85 per ounce.

Silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  By 1987 the 3,835 ounces of silver was worth $42,185.

The profit did not stop there!

The loan was in British pounds.  By May 1987 the pound had dropped from $1.86 per pound to only $1.40 per pound.  The 10,000 pound loan that had been worth $18,600 in 1986 only required $14,000 to pay it off in 1987.

The falling pound had created an extra $4,600 profit.

Do the math: 

Silver worth $42,185

Loan payoff  $14,000

Profit             $28,185

Cash Required  Zero

All of this profit was made on the 10,000 pound loan.  No extra cash was required on the investor’s part.

The $28,185 was pure… extra profit.

Let me add that some investors had borrowed even more.  Some less.  The report showed a loan to risk  formula that investors could follow.

That was in the 1980s.  Silver’s special pricing position” does not happen often (this is why most investors miss it).

Nearly 30 years passed before the “silver’s special pricing position” fell into place again.

Conditions for the silver dip returned 30 years later in 2015.  The availability of low cost loans and silver’s price were perfect.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, most missed this important profit generating event. 

My readers did not.

I had been watching the entire 30 years for “silver’s special pricing position” to return.

I had been watching currency shifts and interest rates distortions so I knew the best currency to borrow.

From 2011 to 2015 the price of silver had once again crashed from $48.35 to below $14 an ounce.

The “special silver pricing position” reappeared.

I dusted off the “Silver Dip” and updated it to the “Silver Dip 2015”.

I prepared a “Silver Dip 2015” report and shared it immediately.  

The report paid off again.

From July 2015 to July 2016, the price of the silver ETF  iShares Silver Trust (Symbol SLV) rose from $13.92 and ounce to $18.71.  You can see the rise in the finance.yahoo.com chart below.

yahoo

A 10,000 pound loan (the pound was $1.52 per pound) purchased 1091 shares of the silver ETF SLV.   Those Shares rose to be worth $20,421 by 2016, a 34.34% additional profit.

The profit did not stop there!

The loan again was in British pounds.  From 2015 the pound dropped from $1.52 dollars per pound to only $1.39 dollars.  The 10,000 pound loan that had worth $15,200 in 2015 only required $13,900 to pay it off in 2016.

yahoo pound chart

The falling pound had created an extra $1,300 profit.

Do the math: 

Silver worth $20,421

Loan payoff  $13,900

Profit             $6,521

Cash Required  Zero

All of this profit was made on the 10,000 pound loan.  No extra cash was required.

Again this was pure… extra profit.

Some investors borrowed less… others borrowed much more so their profits were even higher.

All the extra earnings were derived from a low cost, easy to obtain loan that almost any investor can have.

I would like to help you learn how to tap into this type of profit that most investors will miss… in my newest report “The Silver Dip 2019”.

First let me answer a really important question…  that if you have not asked, you should.

Isn’t there some risk?

Yes.  There is always risk when you invest.

The first golden rule of investing outlined in the Silver Dip 2018 report is…”there is always something we do not know”.

The numbers above are what have happened.   We never know for sure what will happen.

2015 was similar to 1986.  Investors were afraid of silver.  Courage was required and this is exactly why dip investments work so well.

When most investors are afraid of a precious metal, extra good value is created!

Plus there is a way to dramatically increase the odds that your investment will be safe and that you’ll reap the type of high rewards I have described above.

The formula for increasing safety and improving the odds for profit are included in the new report, “Silver Dip 2019”.

The benefit of 50 years experience.

With so many years of experience in watching markets, metals, bonds, interest rates and currencies, I have learned many special pricing situations to watch for.

These special opportunities do not appear every day.  That’s why they are special.

Unless you have seen them come and go, it’s hard to see them coming again.

That is why I was willing to wait for years for silver to be in a special pricing position.

Our courses and reports are about finding good value and they have been helping astute readers find value investments, again and again for 50 years.

The “Silver Dip 2019” report shows a new, even bigger opportunity.  I continuously watch for aberrations in currency and precious metal markets.   Sometimes a rare quirk, such as we saw with the pound loans and the Silver Dip offer potential for profit, with very little risk of long term loss.

Investors who speculate on platinum at the correct time can make fortunes.

The time is now.

Success is almost guaranteed.  In fact an 89 year study showed a 99% change of success when sequence distortions are worked in a certain way.

We are stalking precious metal opportunity now.

The trap is set. We are waiting…

This opportunity is explained in the report “Silver Dip 2019”.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Here is why there is no risk for you.  The report is 100% guaranteed.

I do not sell book, reports and courses.  I offer benefits.  If  the Silver Dip 2019 does not bring you the benefits you expect, just let me know within 60 days and I’ll send you a quick, no questions asked, full refund.

I can’t promise that silver’s price will rise in the next 60 days.  I can guarantee you’ll be fully satisfied with the report or… you can have your money back in full.

You can order the Silver Dip 2019 here for $39.95

Gary