Tag Archive | "behavior gap"

Ritual of the Golden String


The Ritual of the Golden String can help you create positive routines. 

golden thread

Time and space define our existence.  That’s why the most powerful force for a fulfilling lifestyle, is being at the right time in the right place.  How can we do this?  More importantly how can we know when it’s the right time and place?

We start by being more aware of where we are when… and aware of what’s happening.

When we are aware, we can control time and space.  Awareness controls habits because habitual activity starts as an action without conscious thought.

We can become more aware of our time and our space with a piece of string.

I mean really… what can be simpler than a piece of string?   But powerful?

The Ritual of the Golden String can help create a better lifestyle using simplicity in a complex world.  Here is a simple exercise that can put awareness to work.

String is something we hardly ever think about.  Yet we use string everyday.  We use it first thing in the morning. Where would your clothes be without it?  We use string the last thing at night.  (What is the thread count in your sheets?)

What a miracle this simple thing… string!   How many simple, yet immensely important parts of our daily lives are we not aware of that are composed of or held together with string?

The technological miracles that have diminished time and space force so much noise into our awareness that the stress overloads erode our awareness of important, simple matters.  Stress clouds where we are, what we are doing and what’s going on.

So, let’s see how we can regain our awareness with a simple piece of string.

Ancient Simplicity

String and a bit of fluid have been simple tools for complex projects since ancient times.  For example, it is believed that something as simple as water and plumb bobs (string with a rock tied to the end) were used to level the highly complex Egyptian pyramids.  The builders used a water level.  Narrow trenches were cut into the bedrock and filled with water.  The waterline was marked on all the trench walls. Protrusions were cut down until all the walls were level.

The point is that the more complex the problem, the simpler the routine can be.

This thought brings us back to the complex problem of all the daily noise that masks our awareness of our own unique time and space.   How can we ignore the noise and cut to the chase of awareness of our unique right times and right places?

Here is a simple mental ritual that an Ecuador shaman taught Merri and me for raising this awareness. 

Get a spool of gold colored thread.  (Gold represents wealth, wisdom and prosperity.) 

Measure a length of this thread equal to the distance from your belt loop to the thumb of your right hand when you arm is extended (or left if you are left handed). 

Tie one end of the thread to thumb.  Tie the other end of the thread to your belt loop.

Leave this for a day and count how many times you break the thread.  Every time you break the thread, remember something you are grateful for.

This exercise helps us recover our awareness.  Not breaking the thread all day long is the ideal… but this is not a contest.  This ritual is a powerful reminder that loops you back to the quiet, efficient, simple wisdom that is uniquely YOU!

Use the ritual of the golden thread for a day, or just before or after work…  or even an hour once a week.  Simple, powerful rituals enhance your awareness and help you know when you are in the right time and right place.

Most of us lead or did lead hurried, high pressure, complex lives that shape our activity into brief time saving habits that dim our awareness.

Continual pressure and stress are not good for health in many ways.   Simple habits, such as worrying about everything, are among the hardest to break.  Simple solutions, such as the Ritual of the Golden String can restore our awareness, create better mental and emotional balance and most of all remind us to focus on our unique purpose to overcome our fears.

Gary

Be Smarter

 

Join the top 3 percent of intelligent people in the world.

Become more independent and relaxed by becoming smarter.

A study of 10,000 British people studied the pure relationship between intelligence and happiness stability.

IQ can predict the emotional ups and downs of life.   The research found that the lower the IQ,  the more stress and higher the ups and downs in life satisfaction.  The differences were not due to education, income, or jobs either, but simply IQ.

gary-scott-seminar

Delegates at a Super Thinking course relaxing in their secret rose garden.

Free yourself by becoming smarter, healthier, happier… in just weeks… hearing  a relaxation session that takes you into your secret rose garden.

Merri, David and I originally developed this session for our Super Thinking courses and have set it into an online workshop for you.

Listen… just 18 minutes day.  We guarantee your life will be better.

Inflate Your IQ.

When it comes to money… inflation is cheating.

That’s bad for you.

When it comes to intelligence… inflating is smart… fair… good for you and it’s good for the rest of the world.

Monetary inflation is a sneaky government and business trick.

What cost a dollar in 1965 can easily cost $15 now.

They promise you more.

Liars?

They devalue the currency so you get more dollars that buy less.  They can rip off your salary,  your pension…raise insurance, almost everything.

And they make you work harder… longer… for less.

Whittle, whittle, whittle.  Push, push, push.  That’s what monetary inflation does to you.

Fight back… overcome the inflation trick.  Inflate your IQ as you relax.

Gain more than IQ.

Be smarter… more energetic…. healthier… more relaxed.

That’s the way to get ahead!

Create more income opportunity.  Reduce stress.  Improve your health.  Be naturally smarter… use Super Thinking.

You can improve your IQ in just weeks.

You might well ask… How is this possible?

Here’s how the scientists say it is possible.

A Wall Street Journal article entitled “Ways to Inflate Your IQ”(1)  show how you can be smarter and actually add matter to your brainThe article says:

           Many people think of IQ as a genetic trait, like brown eyes or short legs: You’re born with it and you’re stuck with it.

Now, a growing body of research is showing that a person’s IQ can rise—and even fall—over the years.

Scores can change gradually or quickly, after as little as a few weeks of cognitive training, research shows.

British students were given IQ tests and brain scans at ages 12 to 16 and again about four years later.  9% of the students showed a significant change of 15 points or more in IQ scores.

The study published in Nature said that on a scale where 90 to 110 is considered average, one student’s IQ rose 21 points to 128 from 107, lifting the student from the 68th percentile to the 97th compared with others the same age. 

MRIs in this study showed changes in gray matter in areas corresponding to fluctuations in the kid’s skills.

There are practical steps people can take to see longer-term IQ changes.  New tasks stimulate the brain most.  Young adults given just one month of intense training in juggling, found an increase in the corresponding gray matter in the brain as early as seven days after the training began.

Fluctuations in IQ scores over time underscore the brain-boosting benefits of musical training and new experiences throughout a lifetime.

Music lessons are linked to higher IQ throughout life.  Six years’ lessons lifted children’s IQ scores an average 7.5 points.

 Improve the brain through music… without lessons.

Here’s the Super Thinking story…

The educational program Merri and I developed uses a form of brain wave integration that increases IQ.

Super Thinking uses frequency (in music and a number of other ways) to integrate brain waves so the process of absorbing, processing and recalling information is vastly accelerated.  The music creates the three C’s:  Calm, Clarity and Coherence.

This Super Thinking program is not a gimmick or trick… just advanced education.

Certain types of Baroque music are the base, and they make you smarter!

Proof?

At least four best selling books, “Psychic Discoveries Behind the Iron Curtain”,  “Superlearning”, the “Mozart Effect” and “Superlearning 2000″ showed how to learn and think more powerfully based on systems drawn from the Bulgarian educational master, Dr. Georgi Lozanov.

This Baroque music tactic alone is so powerful that Small Business Innovation Research… an official site of the US government granted over $100,000 for the specific purpose they said was: to provide a method to remove barriers which hinder or prevent the employment of blind persons.  An innovative method, the Lozanov Learning System, is proposed to help train blind persons to become computer programmers and operators of automated equipment.

Merri was among just a few who learned this technique directly from Dr. Lozanov the time he visited the USA.

Our Super Thinking workshop enhanced this system with numerous other tactics.

We added slight alterations in nutrition that create a higher IQ.   Altered nutritional tips in Super Thinking can make anyone 25% smarter!

Baroque Music and nutrition are just part of seven, easy to use, learning techniques that make you smarter.

Gain any skill, from computers to athletics to conversational languages…in less time…two-to-five times faster.

Here’s a huge bonus.  Super Thinking also relieves stress.  Super Thinking is fun.

You can use a Super Thinking focus in everything:  health… earning… education… investing.

Super Thinking works on the learner first…the data second.  This system “grows the learner” rather than the information.

If you have 4.5 inches of information flowing through a 4 inch learning pipe, the solution is not to add another inch of information.  The answer is create a six inch IQ pipe!

Share our years of experience.

For nearly 50 years, Merri and I have conducted hundreds of courses and tours for tens of thousands, in dozens of countries (even behind the Iron Curtain).  Our Super Thinking Workshop has been one of the most profound.  Now the workshop is even better online because it condenses Super Thinking so you can increase your IQ, at home… right away.

The workshop shows how these mind expanding tactics can be applied to starting and running a business for extra income, to forex trading and investing.  Athletes of all types… golfing being one common sport benefit.  Our Super Thinking plan goes far beyond Lozanov and allows you to rapidly get smarter in every part of your life.

For example, real estate broker, Suzy Kurinsky took the workshop to help her learn Spanish.

She wrote: “You are the BEST!!! Your Seminar was fantastic! I am so excited. I had procrastinated fulfilling my continuing education for my Broker’s License and then just before my surgeries, I realized by expiration date isn’t Nov. 12th – it is Sept 12th. Prior to taking your course I had only completed 3 units of the required 45 units. I thought I would take your course and then complete my remaining 42 units over the next 2 weeks. However, I took one class exam on Saturday night, August 27th. I didn’t even take the cellophane off the required Course manuals until after I saw the two of you today less than 5 hours ago! I used your techniques and completed 39 units of continuing education today. I have now completed all 45 units. All of my test scores were in the 90.6-96% range.  My course exam information is listed below. I just wanted to let you know how valuable your course was to me. Thanks again!”

Super thinking can improve almost anything you do… faster, better, more fun and with less stress.

Another attendee to the Super Thinking Workshop sent this note.

 Thank you for the wonderful workshop on Super Learning + Spanish!  I really enjoyed the workshop and getting to know you.   I can see several ways to apply what I learned in the classes I teach.

Since I returned home, I have purchased some of the CDs of Baroque music and thought about which specific pieces will work best in different parts of my classes.  I am also reading Perfect Health by Deepak Chopra.  I found your discussion of this book to be very helpful in showing how to balance one’s life.  I have adjusted my daily schedule, and I can already notice a difference in my productivity.

Super Thinking can help improve your health. Super Thinking can make you rich and add richness to your life.

However the time, travel expense and workshop cost (delegates have paid up to $999) have prohibited many from getting this benefit.

That’s why we have created the workshop in electronic form.  Get Super Thinking online for less than fifty bucks.

You can order the online Super Thinking Workshop here ($49.95)

Relax in the Secret Rose Garden.

The workshop is divided into two parts.  Part one is the application… the sessions that tell you exactly what to do, what music to use and even includes two recorded sessions based around a secret rose garden that you can use.  We have kept this portion short and simple so you can easily start immediately.

Part two is a longer portion on theory.

Part one is enough.

Super Thinking is like jogging… giving results if you simply do it!

You do not have to know why Super Thinking works to increase your IQ.   But Part Two explains why you are getting the good results from Part One, if you want to know.

You might ask…”Will it work for me”?

The Super Thinking Workshop will help increase your IQ.

Our guarantee.

I guarantee it.  Order the Super Thinking Workshop.  Use it for two months.  If you are not totally satisfied… in any way, during that time, simply let me know and I’ll send a full refund… immediately… no questions asked.

Order the online Super Thinking Workshop here ($49.95)

Another Super Thinking workshop attendee wrote: Listening to the two of you during our time together has suddenly got me to thinking, and although some of the ideas still seem foreign to me,  I am at a point in my life now where I can say, “anything is possible”.   I am now willing to embrace and allow myself to experience the world of possibility and let it take me in directions I may have in the past resisted.  I really don’t know where all this is going to lead me but I am now willing to explore, develop and grow.   Thank you again for a wonderful four days!!

Inflation is a cheat… a crime when it comes to money.  Inflating your IQ to beat inflation is simple good sense.  Learn Super Thinking now with no risk.  Begin to increase your intelligence today.

Order the online Super Thinking Workshop  $49.95.

Gary

(1) Read Wall Street Journal article Ways to Inflate Your IQ

(2) See government grant records on teaching blind persons with the Lozanov method

 

Of Bears & Health


The stress of crashing stock markets and politics can ruin both our health and health.

Investment managers specialize in knowing stocks, bonds and the economy.  Few of them understand stress.

But who needs investment advisors?

business insider

The chart above from Business Insider (1)  that shows all the US bull and bear stock markets since the 1920 reveals the fact that if we simply get in the market… hold on and do not bail out during bear markets… we come out ahead.

Way ahead.

It’s little wonder that Warren Buffet’s simple advice to the trustee for his wife: “Put 10 percent of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90 percent in very low-cost S&P 500 index fund.”

Yet we do need investment managers because most of us do not simply invest in an index and hang on.  We try to understand and time the stock market… or we take short term views that include measuring whether we are making or losing money.

When the market is up… we feel wealthier.  When it’s down we feel as if we have lost.

This interaction in the market creates a phenomenon known as “The Behavior Gap”.

The Behavior Gap is the difference between stock market averages and the returns investors achieve by moving their money around in emotional responses.

Human emotions lead to poor investing decisions.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.  Human evolution makes fear a more powerful motivator than greed.  We refuse to take profits from the fear of losing out on more.  We don’t cut our losses on crashing investments because we can’t admit our mistakes. We buy stocks when prices are high, ignoring the fact that their prices won’t keep going up forever.

The Behavior Gap affects us all!  Even the richest, most professional, highly successful investors suffer from the Behavior Gap.

An Economist article “Super-help for the super-rich – Family offices become financial titans” (2) reveals how even the uber rich also suffer from the Behavior Gap.

The article tells how the growing ranks of billionaires are creating in-house investment teams called Family Offices.  Family offices are becoming financial titans.  Their roles include managing families’ wealth, administering their assets and succession-planning.   They have financial powerhouses, capable of competing with global banks and private-equity firms on big transactions.

Because of their size, these family offices have privileged access to information, deals and tax schemes, allowing them to outperform the average investor.

Yet, according to a study of family offices, their average earnings were 16% in 2017 and 7% in 2016… less than the average growth of world stock markets.

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why many, of even the largest investors, fail.  Fear creates behavior gaps because losing motivates us more than gaining.   We need investment advisors to protect us from the Behavior Gap.

A good investment advisor can help organize stocks, bonds and show how to adapt to the economy.  Few of them understand and can help you reduce stress.

The Bigger Loss Than Money

The ups and downs of the world’s economy, politics and investment markets take an emotional toll.  Life’s continual roller coaster… hyped by the press and the news… make us sick!

A Bloomberg article “Brexit Stress is Making UK’s People Sick” (3) shows how the economy, stocks and politics are literally killing us.

The article says:  The uncertainty of the ongoing Brexit drama is taking an emotional toll on the British public.  Since the original vote in 2016, there has been a 13.7 percent increase in prescriptions for antidepressants relative to other drugs. Political chaos has consequences for public health.

Indeed, the results of a new study suggest that people subjected to long periods of intense uncertainty show levels of immune-system activity similar to that when triggered by viral or bacterial infections. The British public is certainly tired of the Brexit psychodrama, but they — and their political leaders — may in a real sense be sick as well, with a significantly reduced capacity for making wise decisions.

Humans aren’t dispassionate information-processing machines, akin to computers. Surprising news affects us not only mentally, but also physically, increasing breathing and heart rates, triggering a surge in hormones such as adrenaline and cortisol. This stress response also involves the immune system, which biologists now understand does a lot more than protect us from infectious pathogens. It also acts to reorganize our metabolism and use of energy, with both positive and negative consequences.

During an acute episode of stress, the body draws on stored energy resources to boost its innate immunity. But prolonged stress triggers the systemic release of pro-inflammatory cytokines — the key signaling proteins of the immune system — which can lead to chronic inflammation and so-called sickness behavior. People suffer from fever, generalized anxiety and depression, as well as experience social withdrawal and difficulty in feeling pleasure. They also exhibit a reduced capacity to explore new situations and take risks, even when doing so could be beneficial.

Bear market coming?

Sure there is a bear ahead… some time.  It may have started this week.  I, nor anyone, knows exactly when it will happen.   Nor does anyone know how severe this correction will be.

What we do know is that the consequences of a bear market can have a serious negative effect on our health as well as decisions making.

Death Wish

Stock market stress does kill… really.  An abstract for a medical study “Do Stock Market Fluctuations Affect Suicide Rates?” (4) tells how bear stock markets are even drive suicides.  The study found a significant inverse relationship between stock market returns and the percentage increase in suicide rates.

Why Extra Risk Now

Seventy-two percent of people say they feel some amount of stress during the holidays.  If the stock market drops during this holiday the stress can have a health impact for years.

That’s why the information below may be of special value now.

Gary

The Only 3 Reasons to Invest

garyheadshot

The stock market has always been the best place of places to protect and increase wealth over the long haul.   Yet it’s also been the worst place to lose money, a lot of it, quickly.

There are only three reasons why we should invest.  We invest for income.  We invest to resell our investments for more than we had invested.  We invest to make our world a better place.

The goal of investing should be to stabilize our security, bring feelings of comfort and elimination of stress!

We should not invest for fun, excitement or to get rich quickly. We should not divest in a panic due to market corrections.

This is why my core stock portfolio consists of 19 shares and this position has hardly changed in three years.  During this time we have been steadily accumulating the same 19 shares and have traded only three times.

motif

This portfolio is built around a strategy that’s taught in my Purposeful Investing Course (Pi).  I call these shares my Pifolio.

This portfolio more or less matched the S&P 500 until May 2018.  Then a stronger US dollar made the portfolio look like it was falling behind.   This currency illusion creates a special opportunity we’ll view in a moment.

This portfolio above is based on stock price to value analysis built around 91 years of stock market data.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pifolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You get this course when you enroll in our Purposeful Investing program (Pi) with a triple guarantee.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the 130 page basic training, a 46 stock market value report, access to all the updates I have sent in the past three years, two more reports on investing (described below) and an online Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

(1) www.businessinsider.com: Illustration of bull and bear markets

(2) www.economist.com: Family offices become financial titans

(3) www.bloomberg.com: Brexit stress is making UK’s people sicker

(4) Do Stock Market Fluctuations Affect Suicide Rates?

The Biggest Risk to Your Wealth


To be… or not to be… irrational.

That is the question.

behaviorgap.com

Image from www.behaviorgap.com (1)

Richard Thaller  won  the 2017 Nobel prize in economic science for showing that people are predictably irrational.

“How will you spend $1.1 million prize?”, he was asked.

He said: “This is quite a funny question. I will try to spend it as irrationally as possible.”

That is amusing.

Yet the essence, of Thayler’s work, the Behavior Gap, is deadly serious.

The US stock market bull is now eight years and seven months long, a record.

So why isn’t everyone rich?

A behavior gap exists.

The rates of return earned by most investors who move their money around in emotional responses is less then the average in markets.

Human emotions lead to poor investing decisions. We spend too much and save too little… then expect what little there is to generate too much income. We refuse to cut our losses on crashing investments because we can’t admit our mistakes. We buy houses and stocks when prices are high, ignoring the fact that it won’t keep going up forever.

Illogical behavior has economic consequences: Baby Boomers haven’t saved enough to retire.  Americans kept buying houses even as prices soared causing the biggest economic downturn since the 1930s.

That’s not amusing.

This is why you should learn how to use math based financial news to make investing decisions instead of relying on the conjecture and speculation of economic news that tends to stimulate our  irrationality.

Gary

(1) www.behaviorgap.com

 

 

Beware of Tomorrow December 1st


I have sent this message scheduled for tomorrow a day early because for the past 16 years, December 1st has been a significant stock market day!  Our world turned upside down when, on December 1st, 1999 the dot.com bubble burst.  As you will see below it was then not until December 1, 2010 before the Dow was back to that all time high to stay.  Or was it?  Read below:

Stock markets have their ups and downs.  After the dot.com bubble recovered, starting in late 2007, the real estate bubble popped.  Many Americans saw their homes slide underwater, their stocks plummet and the value of their savings collapse to zero return.  That financial ruin was created by banks that were “too big to fail” pushing shares that they were selling short and were poor value.

Now as stock markets reach all time highs, another debacle is rising.  The tremors have already started, aftershocks from 2009, that have potential to create another landslide of a greater magnitude.  The “Too Big to Fail” may be leading us into tragedy again.

A number of readers have been asking me if its time to sell their shares in the US stock market.

First, I remind them that no one can ever get in right at the bottom or sell right at the top, all the time.  Personally I have not been investing in US shares for years and this has served me well.

The great value investor, Benjamin Graham, devised the metaphorical figure “Mr. Market,” whose mood swings — from euphoria to misery — determined stock prices.  You don’t have to trade with Mr. Market when he wants to, but only when you want to.

I don’t want to be buying anything when the sellers are asking for top dollar as they are in the US right now.  I just keep buying into good value markets where there are bargain basement prices.  I do not care about these ups and downs in the US.  Some really good markets (like the UK and China) are selling at near half the price to book of US shares.

Shares represent ownership in real businesses. The real value of those businesses don’t change thousands of times a day.  They don’t suddenly rise dramatically just because of what people think the next President will or will not do.  The price of the shares change, but not the value so sometimes the price is a good value and sometimes not.

Eventually this reality of economic value shows through.  The question is only one of time.

Sticking to the value logic is so much easier to live with than trying to guess if the market will rise more or fall, especially since we are all at risk of a “Behavior Gap”.

The 100 year chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Index below from Macrotrends.net provides a clear warning, “No great crash has started except from an all time high market index”.

stock chart

100 year DJI chart at www.macrotrends.net

Let’s look at a more recent chart to put this in perspective.

December 1, 1999  the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI) reached an all time high of 11,497.   Then it fell into the 7000 range by August 2002.  It was not until August 31, 2006, almost seven years later, before it reached that 11,500 level again.

The roller coaster was not at an end.  Then the DJI skyrocketed and reached new highs on December 1, 2007 of 13,500 range.  By February 2009 it was back in the 7,000 range.  It was not until June 30, 2008 that the DJI returned to the 11,500 range.

The roller coaster was still not at an end.  By February 2009, it was back in the low 7000s (7,062).

It took to December 1st, 2010 before it recovered past 11,500 again (11,577).  Eleven years had past and the DJI was at the same level as December 1, 1999.  If you invested in the Dow Jones Industrial index in 1999, then left and did not return until 2010, you broke even.

The time was December 1, 2010 before it reached the 1999, 11,500 level again.  The market continued to rise and by December 1, 2012 was finally back in 13,500 range, five years later before it reached that level again.

stock chart

DJI stock chart at www.finance.yahoo.com

The question though is “How do we do individually as investors?”  Most of us don’t invest and hold for these periods. Most of us sell our winners too soon and hold our losers too long.  This is among the worst times to invest since periods of high performance are always followed by periods of low performance.

For almost ten of the 12 years of 1999 through 2011 the DJI was below the December 1, 199 high.  There were only two years where the DJI was above its 1999 high and if we look from 2007 to 2013, there was only one year where the DJI was above the 2007 high.

In 2013, US stock started to accelerate and for four years we have seen the DJI Index rise above its last all time high in the 13,500 range.   The index is up almost 50% in this period.  We must ask, “Has the real value of these businesses risen that much?” or perhaps the price has outstripped the value.

Perhaps tomorrow, since December 1st seems to be such a pivotal day, we’ll know more or at least in the month ahead.

The question that’s bigger than “how we do?” is “how we feel?”

The behavior gap means most investors get a lower return than indices because the pain of loss is about twice as motivational as the joy of gain.  Most of us are not good at investing.  Human nature seeks pleasure and avoids gain.  Because we are taught from early on that loss is painful, we react poorly when the price of investments drop.  The potential of double pleasure is needed to overcome the fear of pain, so it is natural only after seeing the prices of investments rise for an extended time.

Whatever you do as an investor, seek comfort.  Feeling good about your strategies and tactics is more important than being smart.  Feeling comfortable with your portfolio through its ups and downs is more important than intelligence, capital and access to data.

So next time you are thinking of what to invest in, instead of asking, “Will the market rise or will it fall?” ask  yourself instead, “Will I be comfortable long term with that?”

Gary

This is why we started the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  Pi shows an easy way to use Country ETFs to invest in good value markets that we can believe in and derive comfort from the safety of the investments.

Gain From Election Volatility

Here we are again… another election on its way… all the robo calls from politicians… the dirty tricks and the innumerable amounts of nonsense this vital process brings.

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the election process.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   A market correction is due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics has created an uncertain era.  Everyone has been shaken over the past three years whether they are pleased with the government or not.

Nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third if we see rising interest rates, this will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the strong US dollar and undervalue non dollar stock markets to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies are the best way to profit long term, through good politics and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.

However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 plus years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

finance.yahoo.com chart SLV

iShares Silver Trust (symbol SLV) from www.finance.yahoo.com

Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2019 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2109”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2019” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2019” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2109” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

Comfort Money


How do you value money and investments?

Do you worry that banks will shut, the markets collapse?  Is a default of Social Security or  pensions a concern?  Does the current political mayhem fill you with dread?  Are you a prepper?  Is your closet filled with buckets of freeze dried food? Do moves in the stock market fill you with dread?

When an investment goes bad or the market heads south, do you head for the freezer and ice cream, or chocolate or other forms of comfort food?   That’s normal.  Most of us, at times, seek comfort food.

Instead we need a comfort mood.  Perhaps we should consider comfort money as well.

Comfort investments and comfort money are investment we believe in.

This is why we started the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  Pi shows an easy way to use Country ETFs to invest in good value markets that we can believe in and derive comfort from the safety of the investments.

This type of  investing is a growing trend as evidenced in a recent Wall Street Journal article about Steve Edmundson the Nevada Public Employees’ Retirement System.  The article is entitled “What does Nevada’s 35 billion fund-manager do all day?  Nothing!”  (1)

Here is an excerpt.

Steve Edmundson has no co-workers, rarely takes meetings and often eats leftovers at his desk.

With that dynamic workday, the investment chief for the Nevada Public Employees’ Retirement System is out-earning pension funds that have hundreds on staff.

His daily trading strategy: Do as little as possible, usually nothing.

The Nevada system’s stocks and bonds are all in low-cost funds that mimic indexes.  Mr. Edmundson may make one change to the portfolio a year.

He generally doesn’t work outside 8 a.m.-to-5 p.m. hours.  Steve Edmundson has no co-workers, rarely takes meetings and often eats leftovers at his desk. With that dynamic workday, the investment chief for the Nevada Public Employees’ Retirement System is out-earning pension funds that have hundreds on staff.

His daily trading strategy: Do as little as possible, usually nothing.  The Nevada system’s stocks and bonds are all in low-cost funds that mimic indexes. Mr. Edmundson may make one change to the portfolio a year.

News doesn’t matter much.  Will the 2016 elections affect his portfolio?  “No.” Oil prices?  “No.”  He follows Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, but “there’s a difference between watching and acting.”

His strategy is to keep costs low and not try beating markets, he says. “We’re bare bones.”  From his one-story office building in Carson City, Mr. Edmundson commands funds whose returns over one-year, three-year, five-year and 10-year periods ending June 30 bested the nation’s largest public pension, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, or Calpers, and deeply-staffed plans of many other states.

“Doing nothing is harder than it looks,” says Ken Lambert, Mr. Edmundson’s predecessor and only outside investment-strategy consultant. Harder, he says, because of the restraint needed to practice inaction.

Most of us are not good at investing.   Human nature seeks pleasure and avoids gain.  Because we are taught from early on that loss is painful, we react poorly when the price of investments drop.   The potential of double pleasure is needed to overcome the fear of pain, so it is natural only after seeing the prices of investments rise.  This is the worst time to invest since periods of high performance are always followed by periods of low performance.  Such natural reactions lead most of us to hold our losers, sell our winners and have a lot of agony in the process.

Whatever you do as an investor, seek comfort.  Feeling good about your strategies and tactics is more important than being smart.  Feeling comfortable with your portfolio through its ups and downs is more important than intelligence, capital and access to data.

So next time you are thinking of what to invest in, ask yourself, “Will I be comfortable long term with that?”

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com “What does Nevada’s 35 billion fund-manager do all day?  Nothing!”

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking Back’s Not Good?


Looking back at our mistakes isn’t good, unless we learn.  I try to avoid going down the crooked road of regrets but when I do, I always find something interesting.

road

Coy Ham Road on the way to our farm.

Mistakes can be looked at in two ways.  Our errors can be events that caused something to be lost, or they can be seen as starting points where something was gained.  I joke about the real estate Merri and I bought and sold in London, England and Naples, Florida.  Had we kept just two of the houses, (one in London-one in Naples), we would have an extra five or six million dollars.

So did we lose, by making those deals?

When I think through the entire transaction, I see that each sale brought us something far better-other investments, adventures in new locations and a richer, fuller, more enjoyable life.

This should not come as a surprise.  Numerous scientific studies of the brain and of human behavior have found that mistakes can be as good for us as success!

One MRI study found that most chemistry in the brain is linked to gaining pleasure or avoiding punishment.  Some people expect on some level to be punished for mistakes and the brain becomes inhibited.  The brains of those who make a habit of learning from the mistakes begin to treat mistakes as rewards and performance is improved.

Another study found that mistakes improve the ability to pay attention and incorporate new information that improves learning and performance.

Researchers elsewhere discovered that memories of mistakes help us learn new tasks faster even when we make them while learning a completely different task.

There is one more reason not to have regrets or worry about mistakes. A quote from the late Muhammad Ali shows why.

“I’ve made my share of mistakes along the way, but if I have changed even one life for the better, I haven’t lived in vain”.

Gary

Regrets create the behavior gap in investing.

Protect Your Wealth From Mistakes

Here are three steps to multi currency profits.   Seek value.  Cut losses.  Take profits.

Quotes from three great value investors support this thought.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ben Graham

We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” Charlie Munger

We do not have to be brilliant to preserve our wealth.  When it comes to investing, discipline can make you smarter than the smartest man in the world.

sir issac newton

Sir Isaac Newton is widely regarded as one of the most influential scientists of all time.  His role was key in the scientific revolution.

His book “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” laid the foundations for mechanics.

He supplied a foundation to optics.

He helped develop modern calculus.

Newton formulated the laws of motion and gravitation and confirmed the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

Newton built the first practical reflecting telescope.

His theories about color and cooling and the speed of sound were spring boards in physics.

In math, Newton contributed to the study of power series, the binomial theorem to non-integer exponents, and a method for approximating the roots of a function.

He is said to have been the greatest genius who ever lived!

But Sir Issac Newton also lost his shirt in the stock market.  His comment was “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of the people.

Sir Issac forgot the intelligence in seeking value. He ignored the fact that buying and selling discipline is more important than being smart.

How can we gain this discipline?  Discipline comes from simple math which is why two of the three exports I use in my Purposeful investing course (Pi) and mathematicians not economists.  I am happy to introduce an investing math program that instills investment discipline in our Pi course.

Use math, not emotion to protect your wealth.

There are time tested mathematical systems that can help you know when to take profits that maximizes gains and minimizes loss.

These systems help you seek value but also create disciplined exit strategies because one of the toughest decisions most of us have is to know when to sell a rising or falling share.

Human nature makes it harder to let winners run, than to cut loses.

Let’s look at a real time example of how purposeful investing strategies can increase profit.  In this real example, in 2002 Merri and I invested in Jyske Bank shares.  We were visiting the bank with a group of readers.  We had been in Copenhagen for several days and took the group out to the bank’s headquarters in the small charming village of Silkeborg.  We visited the CEO (who has been a friend for many years) in his new modest offices, saw the bank’s new currency trading room and visited with the Jyske Invest Fund Managers.  What impressed us was the conservative and balanced thinking throughout the bank.  There were no staff limos or corporate jets.  The CEO’s office was small with walls of glass so staff could see him at work.  The bank worked for and talked about the long term view.

TFC Corp

Jyske Bank share price since September 2002.

We invested in Jyske shares at DKK96.50 on 2nd September 2002. We sold half in April 2006 at DKK352.50.  The share price of the remaining shares we hold have never dropped below our purchase price.  Today the share price is over DKK300 again.

Could I have done better with a mathematical system?  I asked Dr. Richard Smith, CEO of Tradestops.com,  who has a PhD in mathematics and is one of the experts we use in our system, to see how his trailing stops strategy would have increased my profit.

It turns out I could have done better.  Much better.   Here is the chart of the trailing stops that his strategy would have given me had I been using it.

magci calculator

Click on image to enlarge.

Let’s look at three scenarios to show the difference in profit between using simple buy and hold with no stops, my system of taking back the original investment and the Trailing Stops strategy.  For simplicity sake, I am not including dollar to Danish kroner fluctuations.  The forex fluctuations would make a difference if calculated in US dollars performance but we’ll analyze that element of the invest in another message.

Scenario #1: DKK100,000 becomes worth DKK350,158.  Profit is DKK241,880 in 15 years.  In this scenario we assume a DKK100,000 investment.  The investment is at DKK96.50 so 1036 shares were purchased.  The assumption in this scenario is that all the shares have been held.  The price of today’s quote (April 23, 2015) is DKK330.  The value is DKK341,880 on DKK100,000 invested.

Scenario #2: DKK100,000 becomes worth DKK357,679. Profit is DKK247,840 in 15 years.  Assume again, DKK100,000 investment.  1036 shares were purchased at DKK96.50.  In this scenario, (what I actually did), 285 shares when the price reached DKK352.50.  This returned my original investment appx. DKK100,000.  The remaining 751 shares at 330 (4/22/2015 price) are still held so are worth DKK 247,840.  This represents a total profit of  247,840.  This is a little better than keeping all the shares,  except the shares sold in 2006 created new opportunity potential for nine years so this scenario is actually much better than the numbers appear.

Scenario #3: DKK 100,000 becomes worth DKK1,156,069.  Profit is DKK1,056,069 in 15 years.  As in the other two scenarios there was a DKK100,000 investment.  1036 shares were purchased at DKK96.50.

Dr. Smith, backtracked to and see what the system would have done would with this share.

Richard sent the exact dates with buy and sell numbers:

Exit @ 325.50 on 6/13/2006.  All the shares are sold bringing in DKK337,218.

Buy @ 321.98 on 10/9/2006.  The DKK337,218 buys 1047 shares.

Exit @ 404 on 6/8/2007.   This sale grosses DKK422,988

Buy @ 118.5 on 3/20/2009.  The DKK422,988 buys 3,569 shares

Exit @ 170 on 8/10/2011. This sale grosses DKK606,730

Buy @ 173.40 on 2/1/2012.  The DKK606,730 buys 3,499 shares

Still in @ 330.4 on 4/22/2015. The share value at this time is DKK1,156,069.

Wow, what a difference if one followed and used the trailing stops.  The trailing stops and re buy signals increase the investment by 11 times versus 3.5 times in the other scenario.

The Jyske shares have a volatility quotient at this time of 15.5% so would create a sell signal at around DKK287 at this time.

These scenarios are based on approximations and do not include trading costs, management fees, etc. so the real money in the bank would not be exactly this amount.  For our analytical purposes this study suggests that trailing stops help us protect the successes we gain in spurts.

This type of math creates great discipline so you know not to sell too soon and give away profit but, also know not to hold too long and give away returns already made.

Yet using trailing stops only works when you have good shares to begin.

To easily spot good value, we use Keppler Asset Management  as our first source of data.  We follow the analysis of our friend, Michael Keppler.

Michael Keppler is an expert on stock market value and I have worked with him for nearly 30 years because the best way to create long term multi currency investment profits is to get good value in the shares you buy.

Michael continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each major stock market’s history.  From this he develops his Good Value Major Stock Market Strategy, an analysis that is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short ups and downs.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Keppler.  In my opinion, Michael is one of the best market statisticians in the world.

Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds. In January, his company, Keppler Asset Management, was, for the third consecutive year, named Best Fund Company in the Fund Specialists’ category by Capital, a leading German business magazine.  Keppler’s firm was one of only six out of 100 companies tested that received the highest five-star rating based on an independent evaluation of fund quality, management, and customer service by Feri Rating & Research and Steria Mummert Consulting.

Yet you have not heard about Keppler nor can you hire his services because he only serves mutual funds and institutional investors for investors in Europe.

This is why I want to introduce you to our Purposeful investing Course (Pi) with this special offer.

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How to Link Money with Happiness


Purposeful investing is the best investing of all. 

Purposeful investing is smarter and safer because it creates fulfillment and feelings of security that overcome fear and greed.  Real security comes from being aware of and in tune with a fulfilling, strategic investment plan that goes beyond short term dollars and cents.

Too few investors ask the question, “Why do I want to be wealthy?”

Sure we know that food has to be bought.  Rent has to be paid.  Taxes, bills, cars, gas, education, health care, entertainment all cost… some money.  We need money for all of those things.

Yet these expenses do not require that we be really wealthy.  Research shows that money’s ability to make us feel good is quite limited.

The link between having money and being happy is not strongly related because happiness comes in two ways “evaluative” and “affective”.

Evaluative happiness (a sense that we are progressing toward our life goals) keeps getting better as we earn more.

Affective happiness (how often do we experience positive emotions like joy, affection and tranquility, as opposed to negative ones?) does not rise much after a household reaches an annual income of around $75,000.

You can learn more about this from a great Wall Street Journal article “Money Only Brings Happiness Up to a Point” (1)

The research is clear.  Growing happiness comes from achieving goals, not from getting or being rich.  When the process of  making money is divorced from a long term strategy of completing fulfilling missions, the process of investing is more likely to engender fear and unhappiness, than to bring feelings of fulfillment and security.

When we invest without a personal, meaningful strategy; our investing logic can be turned upside down in numerous ways.  We might risk having a behavior gap.

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why many fail (or succeed) when investing.

Human evolution makes fear a most powerful motivator.  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire, so by nature we are risk adverse.  Warren Buffet highlights the fact that fighting fear is easier said than done. “There is no comparison between fear and greed.  Fear is instant, pervasive and intense.  Greed is slower.  Fear hits.”

So how do we overcome fear?

Here are three unique ways to overcome fear.

#1:  Have a mission.  Many investors lose because they want their investing to create exciting profits.  George Soros confirmed this fact when he said: “If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money.  Good investing is boring.” 

Since we should not try to be entertained by making big, fast profits; having a mission beyond the money in our investing allows us to remain enthusiastic and loyal to our strategies through thick and through thin.  Missions allow us to focus on rewards great enough to joyfully tolerate the effort and downturns we fear.  If we plan risks (let’s remember that all investing entails risk) that accomplish something great and profitable, then it does not have the same grip.

mastery

You can order the book I wrote with Bob Gandt “Mastery, A Mission Plan for Reclaiming a Life of Purpose, Fitness, and Achievement” at Amazon.com. Click here.

#2:  Dream away your fear.  A Washington Post article “Fear memories can be overcome during sleep, researchers say” (2) highlights a way to dream away fears.  Try this.  Identify your fear.  Get an essential oil.  Think about your fear as you apply and smell the oil.  Then apply the same essential oil before you go to sleep.  Your brain can sort out the fear in dreams so you do not have to deal with the waking terror.  

oil lady essential oil

Click here to source excellent essential oils.

#3:  Think in the here and now instead of being ruled by our imagination.

Most of us lead or did lead hurried, high pressure, complex, busy lives that shape our activity into brief, time saving habits.  This continual pressure and stress are not good for us.  The flood of demoralizing, discouraging news creates a mentality of disquiet, a precursor to fear, all too easily activated by any startling news.  Alarm creates panic.  Fear creates its own individual, panicked stampede.  Simple habits, such as reacting to the daily news or panicking when stock markets temporarily plunge are hard to break.

Fear is easy to overcome when you understand what it is.  Eliminating fear is only hard because fear is only an habit and all habits are difficult to change.  When we learn to focus on mind on the here and now instead of letting our imagination run wild, we can separate fact from fiction.  This makes it much easier to eliminate fear.

My report “Avoid Behavior Gaps with the Ritual of the Golden String” teaches a secret I learned from an Ecuadorian shaman on how to eliminate bad habits and create positive here and now thinking and rituals for better balance.

golden string

Order Secret of the Golden String here. $19.95

Why do we want money?  Most would say to feel safe and secure.  If this is your reasoning, create missions meaningful to you for purposeful investing and enjoy wealth beyond the money!

Gary

(1)  www.wsj.com Money Only Brings Happiness Up to a Point

(2) www.washingtonpost.com Fear memories can be overcome during sleep

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

Groundhogs & Fear Investing


Even when value investing there is always something to fear.  There is always something we do not know.  That’s why multi currency diversification is good.  Fear investing though, is bad.

Isn’t that what the groundhog analogy is all about?  The groundhog loses a good day because he fears a shadow.

We have always had something to fear.  In the 50s, 60, 70s, we feared nuclear annihilation. Our schools used to have air raid exercises that sent us scooting  under our desks.  People purchased nuclear shelters.  Most of us remember the fear generated by Y2K.  More recently there was a lot of fear that the world’s economic structure would come unraveled because oil production would reach maximum production, fall behind demand and the world would run out of oil.

groundhog day again

Image from Groundhog Day Again.

Now based on studies and reports by the likes of ESAI Energy and Exxon, to name a few, the fear is the global economy will be ruined by too much oil.  The ESAI report projects that China’s oil-demand growth rate between now and 2030 would be less than half that of the previous 15-year period. This is important because from 2000 to 2010, China accounted for more than 40% of the growth in demand for crude oil.

The prices of oil reached records in 2008, up to $147 a barrel.  Now the price has fallen as low as $26.65 a barrel.

For the 50 years I have been involved in the investing industry, investors have been jumping at shadows while the sun has always been shining somewhere.

This fear creates a “Behavior Gap”.

Let’s use Groundhog Day as a reminder that when we reduce investing stress, we reduce losses from the Behavior Gap. 

The first lesson of the Purposeful investment Course (Pi) looks at numerous steps that can be taken to overcome this Behavior Gap.  (Below is three of them.)

Step One is to reduce stress by decreasing the amount of economic data we have to process.

Overwhelming amounts of data increase stress.  One of the analysts we use, Keppler Asset Management, analyses all the stocks in 46 equity markets (23 developed and 23 emerging), nearly 7,000 shares in total.  Many of these markets have well over 1000 shares. 

Trying to keep up with that data load is enormously expensive and stressful so letting Keppler do this is a huge comfort.

Step Two is to know that equities have always risen and that a global weighted index of shares is highly likely to return a profit in the next four years.  A 49 year review of global stock market activity we just sent the subscribers of our Personal investing Course (Pi) shows that the longest losing streak of  an Equally-Weighted World Index of equities was eight months.

Keppler Asset Management chart

Keppler Asset Management’s January 2016 four year growth projections for an equally weighted  global equity index.  (Click on image to enlarge.)

The study above shows the rise and fall of an equally-weighted world index of shares since 1994.  The blue line is Keppler Asset Management’s total return projection for the last four years.

Keppler’s implicit three-to-five-year projection indicates that the equally-weighted world index by December 31, 2019 is expected to rise to a compound annual total return estimate of 9.3 % in local currencies — down from 10.7 % last quarter.

The upper band estimate implies a compound annual total return of 14.4 % (down from 15.8 % three months ago).

The lower band estimate corresponds to a compound annual total return of 3.4 % (down from 4.7 % three months ago). Given the current low interest and inflation environment, even the lower-band estimate is appealing.

Step Three is to invest in value markets.   The January 2016 market valuations below by Keppler show that the Price-to-Book-Value of the equally-weighted world-index of shares is 1.62, the Price-to Earnings ratio 17 and average yield 3.20.  The  ten top developed market have much better value.   The top value markets combined Price-to-Book-Value of the equally-weighted-world-index of shares is 1.35, (vs. 1.62) the Price-to Earnings ratio 15.4 (vs. 17) and average yield 3.34 (vs. 3.20).

keppler valuations

Click on image to enlarge.

According to Keppler’s analyses, an equally-weighted combination of these most attractively valued markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.  The odds favor that the compound annual total return of the top ten value developed markets will perform even better than the equally weighted-world-index over the next three to five years.

Index investing allows us to gain easy, low stress diversification.  By investing in indices instead of trying to find any one specific share within a market or sector, we gain a great deal of additional safety.   Sticking with diversified good value portfolios in specific markets or sectors helps make the investing process much easier and less stressful.  Investing in ten good value indices diversifies investments into hundreds of shares.

The groundhogs tell us, if there are shadows, there is fear!  Our world has plenty of shadows. but we can reduce the fear and the risk of the Behavior Gap by focusing on value and indices.

We wish you a bright sunny day and by the way, don’t worry about the shadows.

Gary

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns.  Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.  After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.  They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.  Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew.  We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it.  Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

  • Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.
  • Diversify based on value.
  • Rely on financial information rather than economic news.
  • Keep investing simple.
  • Keep investing costs low.
  • Trade as little as possible.
  • Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value.  These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value.  Little management and less guesswork is required.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds.  Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive. 

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster.  Simple and easy investing saves time.  How much is your time worth?  Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Fear, regret and greed are an investor’s chief problem.  Human nature causes  investors to sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing.  Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings.  The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs  that cover these markets.  This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns.  This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets.  Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2:  Cash flow to price

#3:  Earnings to price

#4:  Average dividend yield

#5:  Return on equity

#6:  Cash flow return.

#7:  Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

At the beginning of 2019 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets.  My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

Norway
Australia
Hong Kong
Germany
Japan
Singapore
United Kingdom
Taiwan
South Korea
China

Don’t give up profit to gain ease and safety!

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

  • Absolute Valuation
  • Relative Valuation
  • Current versus Historic Valuation
  • Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2019” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reduce Investing Stress


Reducing stress in the investing process helps avoid loss due to the behavior gap.   The behavior gap reduces profit because humans are hard wired to react more to fear than greed.

One study found that in a five year period when the average equity mutual fund investment gained 173%, the average equity mutual fund investor earned only 110%. This loss of 63% was created by emotions that controlled investment decisions. This is our behavior gap.

The first lesson of the Purposeful investment Course (Pi) looks at seven steps that can be taken to overcome this behavior gap.  One of these steps is to reduce stress by decreasing the amount of economic data we have to process.

Overwhelming amounts of data increase stress.  One of the analysts we use, Keppler Asset Management, analyse all the stocks in 46 equity markets (23 developed and 23 emerging).  Many of these markets have well over 1000 shares. To stay on top of all markets requires a continual update and analysis of tens of thousands of shares.  

Trying to keep up with that data load is enormously expensive and stressful.

One way to instantly reduce this task is to focus on indices and value instead of shares.  I use Keppler because he consolidates his statistics into indices.  For example I can see in Keppler’s July Developed Market Analysis that the Morgan Stanley Capital European Index offers a much better value than the Morgan Stanley Capital  US index.  Even better Keppler’s good Value Developed Markets (Top Value Portfolio) allows me to zero in on the ten best value indices.

If I want to invest in equities, I get better value investing in the European index instead of the US index.

keppler developed market analysis

Click on image to enlarge.

Index investing also allows us to gain diversification.  By investing in indices instead of trying to find any one specific share within a market or  sector, we gain a great deal of additional safety.  Sticking with diversified good value portfolios in specific markets or sectors helps make the investing process much easier and less stressful.  Investing in ten good value indices diversifies my investments into hundreds of shares.

In today’s worldwide web connected, global market place, there is so much information and so many shares and markets and currencies and economies to study, we can never do it all.  Trying to keep up can create enormous stress, not to mention errors.  Getting enough market data was the problem in the past.  Today, the problem is dealing with too much information.

Focusing on value and indices is one way to reduce the amount of data processed without reducing effectiveness.  Focusing on value and indices slows down the investing process and reduces stress.

Gary

The Secret Science of Wealth

Here is a ratio that can make us rich….1.6 to 1.  Leverage in this amount has helped build one of the greatest fortunes in history.  This ratio is one of three secrets in the science of everlasting wealth.  See how Yale University’s research on Warren Buffet’s investing strategy shows the actual science of how to borrow low and invest high.

I began thinking about the secrets of good investing over 30 years ago.  Well, actually I had thought about these secrets many times before that. “Why do some people make money again and again?  What is their secret?”

However, this thinking was super charged about 3 decades ago.  I was a speaker at an investment seminar in the Cayman Islands.  Another speaker was one of the world’s great investors, John Templeton.  Chance put us in the same room waiting to speak.  Then after we spoke chance brought us together, alone in the small departure lounge at the airport.  This was my golden chance, to speak alone, one on one, with this investing genius.  I took it.  “What’s the secret that sets you aside from the rest“,  I asked.

Mr. Templeton (he was not Sir John then) explained that he just did the same as every good investor to stay on top of trends.  But then, he added, his secret was to review everything with a black box… a form of thinking beyond logic.

Then his flight departure was called.  He flew away and I was left, more puzzled than before.  “Hmpf?”  I wondered.  “Knowing that secret doesn’t help.  What’s the science behind the black box?  That’s what I need to know.” 

I remained mystified.  Later the mystery deepened.   I was conducting a book signing for my novel “The 65th Octave”.

I was speaking at a (now defunct) Borders Bookstore about how the core of the novel was the Golden Words.  They helped reveal little known secrets for a more fulfilled life.  One attendee, burst out crying.  That was very puzzling so after the signing I asked her, “Why the tears?

She explained that she had been Warren Buffett’s personal assistant.  Buffett and Charlie Munger had used these same secrets and had encouraged her to use them.  She said those ideas had sounded too esoteric. She had ignored them and left Buffett’s employment.

That’s a clue, I thought.  “The same secrets in my novel can be applied to investing”.

This is when I realized how many secrets of everlasting wealth, may seem mystic but are simply well known mathematics of nature.  They have not been commonly applied in the science of investing.  Only a few investors have learned to apply the science of nature to finance.  This rarity has made these few investors almost unimaginably rich.

One secret that research has now proven, is a most interesting proportion of universal math called the Golden Mean or Golden Ratio.  The Golden Mean is the ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1  (1.6180339887498948482 to be more accurate, but 1 to 1.6 is usually accurate enough).  This rate of expansion is found everywhere-throughout nature.  The Golden Mean controls the growth of most natural things; trees, the shape of leaves, the spiral of shells, as well as the way economies and societies grow.

Good businesses and investments grow along the Golden Mean.  If they grow too fast or to slow beyond this rate, they face increased risk of loss.

The Golden Mean for example is regularly used in architecture.   Our house in North Carolina was built on the Golden Mean.

italian-villa

It has a base of 50 feet by 30 feet… a 1 to 1.6 dimension on purpose.

The Greeks were aware of the pleasing impact of the Golden Ratio and used it as the core of many structures, such as the Parthenon.

In fact the symbol for the Golden Ratio, the Greek letter phi, is derived from the name of Phidias, one of the three architects, who designed this amazing monument.  Iktinus and Callicrates were the other two architects.  These three used Phi beginning with the exterior of the Parthenon.  The dimensions of the façade represent the perfect golden ratio.  Then the ratio is used in many ways within.

Ancient Egyptians used the Golden Mean in the Great Pyramids of Giza.  The length of the base of the pyramid is approximately the Golden Mean.  The height is approximately Pi.

The Golden Mean ratio is in the design of Notre Dame in Paris, the headquarters for the United Nations built under the supervision of Wallace K. Harrison and French architect, Charles E. Jeannere, reflects the Golden Ratio in several ways.  The windows have the ratio and also when looking at the width of the entire building and comparing it to the height of every ten floors.

“Great”, I asked myself again and again. “The Golden Mean can be found in the human body, nature, solar systems, DNA, the stock market, the Bible, theology, music, artwork, design, and architecture.  That all well and good, but what is the exact science for applying this ratio to investing?

Finally, research about Warren Buffet’s investing strategy published at Yale University’s website shows the actual science of how to use the Golden Ratio to become and remain rich.

A research paper published on the website of Yale University’s Department of Economics pinpoints this truth.  The paper shows the methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion dollar fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the Golden Ratio to make large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.

Buffett has amassed an amazing fortune by leveraging a good strategy for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

The study found that Buffett applies a leverage of about 1.6 to 1, boosting both his risk and excess return in that proportion.  He uses the Golden Mean in his borrowing, not too little, not too much.

Thus his many accomplishments include having the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk over many decades.

The research paper shows these general features of Buffet’s portfolio:  Stocks that are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).  Even so at times his portfolio has fallen, but Buffett waits long periods for prices to recover.

This leaves the key question: What capability allows Buffett to hang on when his leveraged investments are losing value?

For example, from June 30, 1998 to February 29, 2000, Berkshire  lost 44% of its market value while the overall stock market gained 32%.  Most fund managers would have trouble surviving a shortfall of 76%.  Buffett’s reputation and structure as a corporation helped him stay the course and rebound when the internet bubble burst.  Having not leveraged too much because of the Golden Mean is a crucial part of his tenacity.

Another part of his portfolio science  is keeping finance costs low.  His company benefited from a AAA credit rating and was able to borrow funds at such low rates that Berkshire was able to issue the first ever negative interest loan in 2002.  In addition Buffet bought up insurance companies that could provide low cost finance.  Insurance float loans cost only 2.2%, three full percentage points below the average T-bill rate.

Buffet’s staying power also comes from his belief in how he invests and the companies he invests in.  Plus Buffett gets smarter by spending much of his time reading every day.

“Warren Buffet treats knowledge like daily compound interest that builds up as the hours tick away.” 

He combines this knowledge with fulfillment.  He says, “I pretty much don’t do anything I don’t like to do. I’m very fortunate in that… I’m pretty much in command of my own time, but I have a lot of fun doing it.”  He remains mostly disconnected from the busy investing world.  His success is the freedom to wake up every morning and work on something he is passionate about and that leaves him fulfilled.

These scientific facts, that many consider secrets, are one foundation of value investing course “The Purposeful investing Course” (Pi).

What will a longer, active life do to our savings and budgets?

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed that some people, such as Warren Buffett, have a three point good value strategy that increases their wealth again and again.

What are the three tactics of this strategy?

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

A research paper that studied Warren Buffet’s investing strategy was published at Yale University’s website. This research shows that the stocks he chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power so you can let time do its work.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

keppler asset management chart

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.  Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffet strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third, limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses value, time and leverage to buy and hold “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He uses limited leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

You can learn how to use this type of three point strategy with the Purposeful investing Course (Pi).  This course is based on my 50 years of global investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Pi Model Portfolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it is based entirely on good math and uses time to take advantage of value.

The value analysis is used to create a portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover  stock markets that are undervalued.  I have combined my 50 years of investing experience with the study of the mathematical market value analysis of Michael Keppler, CEO of Keppler Asset Management.

In my opinion, Keppler is one of the best market statisticians in the world.  Numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage over $2.5 billion of funds.  However because Keppler’s roots are in Germany (though he lives and operates from New York) and most of his funds registered for the European Union, Americans cannot normally access his data.

I was lucky to have crossed paths with Michael about 25 years ago, so I am one of the few Americans who receive this data and you will not find his information readily available in the US.

In a moment you’ll see how to remedy this fact.

The Pifolio analysis begins with Keppler’s research that continually monitors 46 stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return.  Then Keppler takes market’s history into account.

Fwd: keppler

Michael Kepler CEO Keppler Asset Management.

Listen to Michael Keppler explain his philosophy for 6 minutes and 43 seconds here.

Michael’s analysis is rational, mathematical and does not cause worry about short term ups and downs.  Keppler’s strategy is to diversify into an equally weighted portfolio of the MSCI Indices of each good value (BUY) market.

This is an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value because little time, management and guesswork is required.  You are investing in a diversified portfolio of good value indices.

A BUY rating for an index does NOT imply that any one stock in that country is an attractive investment.  This eliminates the need for hours of research aimed at picking specific shares.  It is not appropriate or enough to instruct a stockbroker to simply select stocks in the BUY rated countries.  Investing in the index is like investing in all the shares in the index.  You save time because all you have to do is invest in the ETF to gain the profit potential of the entire market.

To achieve this goal of diversification the Pi portfolio consists of Country Index ETFs.

Country Index ETFs are similar to an index mutual fund but are shares normally traded on a major stock exchange that tracks an index of shares in a specific country.  ETFs do not try to beat the index they represent.  The management is passive and tries to emulate the performance of the index.

A country ETF provides diversification into a basket of equities in the country covered.  The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund as well so such ETFs provide diversification and cost efficiency.

Here is the Pifolio I personally held at the beginning of 2019.

70% is diversified into Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) developed markets: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom.

30% of the Pifolio is invested in Keppler’s good value (BUY rated) emerging markets: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.

iShares Country ETFs make it easy to invest in each of the MSCI indicies of the good value BUY markets.

For example, the iShares MSCI Australia (symbol EWA) is a Country Index ETF that tracks the investment results the Morgan Stanley Capital Index MSCI Australia Index which is composed mainly of large cap and small cap stocks traded primarily on the Australian Stock Exchange mainly of companies in consumer staples, financials and materials. This ETF is non-diversified outside of Australia.

iShares is owned by Black Rock, Inc. the world’s largest asset manager with over $4 trillion in assets under management.

There is an iShares country ETF for every market.

How you can create your own good value strategy.

I would like to send you, on a no risk basis, a 130 page basic training course that teaches the good value strategy I use.   I call this strategy Purposeful Investing (PI).  You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy.   You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years.  Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets).  This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.  The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years.  The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).   The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum.   The “Silver Dip 2019” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80.  The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years.  Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend.  Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning.   You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

seminars

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 51st anniversary of writing about global investing.  Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades.  This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical.  These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong.  One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles.  Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics.  Cycles create recurring profits.  Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

stock-Charts

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity.  Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle.  Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine,  production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet.  The military technology shifts to domestic use.  A boom is created that leads to excess.  Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA.  We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver?  One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection.  We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars.  Learn how low interest rates eliminate  opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power.  The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website.  This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

Use time not timing.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%.  However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Learn how much leverage to use.  Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.  The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1.  We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money.  The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan.  See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk.  Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals  the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value.  The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother.  Plus a great savings of time.  Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year.  I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well.   For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2019” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

ecuador-seminar

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.  Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away. 

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.

Subscribe to Pi now, get the 130 page basic training, the 120 page 46 market value analysis, access to over 100 previous Pifolio updates, the “Silver Dip 2018” and “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” reports, and value investment seminar, plus begin receiving regular Pifolio updates throughout the year.

Subscribe to a Pi annual subscription for $197 and receive all the above.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

Execute or Be Executed by Investments


Yesterday’s message “The Seventh Prediction” made a bold statement. “Here are six predictions where profits are guaranteed.” 

Read the seventh prediction here.

I could afford to be bold because I made those predictions over the past 49 years.  Hindsight can be 20-20.

These predictions were correct.  Anyone who invested in them had a chance to become unbelievably rich.

The words “had a chance” leads us to the 2nd Golden Rules of Investing: “Human nature stacks the odds against us“.

This rule really struck home many years ago when Merri and I were strolling in the dawn near this wonderful old hotel, The Tampa Bay Bel Mido,  known as “The White Queen of The Gulf”.  Built in 1897, it sits high on a bluff and combines old world charm, from the antique-filled Henry Library to the Tiffany Ballroom with its priceless skylights of stained glass, to its private resort setting.

I will never forget this hotel because I learned perhaps the most valuable lesson about investing.  We were conducting an investing seminar there.  As I arrived at the hotel to check in, even before I reached the registration desk, one of the delegates, a heart surgeon, approached me and vigorously shook my hand.  “Gary,” he said, “I cannot thank you enough.  I have followed your recommendations about borrowing yen to invest in pesos and shares and have made so much money.  I have been able to buy a house on the beach in my homeland and can now retire.”

I felt a glow as I walked away headed for the check-in counter of the hotel.  (One always feels good having helped a client and friend.)  I was happy that the doctor had made a lot more profit than I did.  I am conservative with my own investments and had only borrowed two to one.  This doctor had borrowed four to one and had held on during the yen rise.

However, the warm feelings did not last. Still before I could check in another delegate, also a medical professional, collared me. “Gary,” he said, “I am not even sure if I should be here. I followed your advice borrowing the yen to invest in peso and shares and lost every single penny.”

It turned out he had chosen to borrow six to one.  When the yen appreciated and he was faced with putting up substantially more money, he decided to cut his losses.

Three investors (two doctors and myself) with similar backgrounds and exactly the same information.  All had the same investment manager yet they obtained three totally different results!

The lesson was clear.  The most important investment manager is always yourself.   In the end your other investment manager (or managers) will never make you happy unless you have a belief and purpose that guides and manages them.

With this in mind here are excerpts from the Felix Dennis poem that is at the beginning of his book, “How to Get Rich”.

Good Fortune?
The fact is
The more that you practise,
The harder you sweat,
The luckier you get.

Ideas?
We’ve had’em
Since Eve deceived Adam,
But take it from me
Execution’s the key.

This poem holds true in business and investing.

Because of this rule, most investors execute in the exactly the wrong way.  They sell their winners and keep their losers.

When we invest in the unknown, millenniums of human evolution kick in.  Doubts arrive, especially if the investment falters.  Our fears and doubts create an investor phenomenon called the “Behavior Gap”.

The behavior gap is the difference between the rate of return earned from a diversified portfolio that is rebalanced correctly and the rate of returns earned by investors who move their money around in an emotional response to market ups and downs.

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why most investors fail (and few succeed).  Hasty, emotional decisions based on fear and greed cause portfolios to significantly under perform the market in which they invest.

A large body of psychological and physiology research, including magnetic resonance imaging, shows that most human beings do not make the correct logical decisions to overcome the power of emotion when making or losing money.  Neuroscientists have even shown that making money stimulates the brain with dopamine, almost like cocaine.

Financial loss however, or even the threat of loss, is like a physical attack.  Fear, anger and grief release adrenaline and cortisol.  The heart rate and blood pressure rise.  We sweat and become alert ready to fight or flee.  These reactions are hardwired into our bodies.  We cannot change this.

We can learn how to beat the behavior gap with trailing stops.  Trailing stops use logic to create a discipline that increases emotional stability as they reduce risk and increase the potential for profit.

I have been sharing a real life example at this site based on my long term investments which have been in shares of Jyske Bank.

I worked with and believed strongly in this bank so held these shares through good times and bad.  Because I did not support those beliefs with the mathematics and use trailing stops, I gave up huge amounts of profit.  I earned 257,679 kroner instead of 1,056,069.   I lost this because of the behavior gap.

My original investment turned 100,000 Danish kroner into 357,679 Danish kroner.  This has been a great return but the investment could have grown to 1,156,069 Danish kroner instead if I had enhanced my purpose by using a system of trailing stops.

Good investing requires a relentless search for value. Look at the math instead of listening to the stories.   Then create a mathematical discipline trailing stop to overcome fear and emotions.

My newest course,  The Purposeful Investing Course Pi, examines numerous portfolios real time to learn how to create strategies based on mathematically verifiable value rather than stories.

Gary

Gain From Election Volatility

Here we are again… another election on its way… all the robo calls from politicians… the dirty tricks and the innumerable amounts of nonsense this vital process brings.

However America’s politics turn out, one thing is sure.  There will be volatility in stock markets during the election process.

The first reason markets will bounce has nothing to do with politics or policies.   A market correction is due regardless of the party or the person in office.

Second the new politics has created an uncertain era.  Everyone has been shaken over the past three years whether they are pleased with the government or not.

Nothing frightens markets like uncertainty.

Third if we see rising interest rates, this will push markets down.

Despite these pitfalls, there is a way to profit using the strong US dollar and undervalue non dollar stock markets to pick up good value shares.

During nearly five decades of global investing I have noticed found that good value strategies are the best way to profit long term, through good politics and bad.  The steps to take are simple.

The first tactic is to seek safety before profit.

We can look at Warren Buffett’s investing strategy as an example.  Buffett success is talked about a lot, but rarely does anyone explain how he make so much money.  That was the fact until some researchers really stripped his operation bare.  They looked at everything and learned the deepest of Buffett’s wealth management secrets.  Fortunately they published all in a research paper at Yale University’s website. that reveals important truths about extending wealth.

This research shows that the stocks Buffett chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price – to – book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios).

The second tactic is to maintain staying power.  At times Buffet’s portfolio has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

A 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a  good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of outperformance to 70%.

However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy.  The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio the better the odds of outstanding success.

The Buffett strategy integrates time and value for safety and profit.

A third tactic is using limited leveraging, tactic in the strategy boosts profit.  Buffett leverages his portfolio at a ratio of approximately 1.6 to 1.   The Yale published research paper shows the leveraging methods used by Warren Buffett to amass his $50 billion fortune.  The researchers found that the returns from Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, far outweighed those achieved by any rival that has operated for 30 years or more.  The research shows that neither luck nor magic are involved.  Instead, the paper shows that Buffet’s success hinges on using leverage at the rate of 1.6.

To sum up the strategy, Buffet uses limited leverage to invest in large purchases of “cheap, safe, quality stocks”.  He limits leverage so he can hold on for very long periods of time, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift.

Stated in another way buffet uses logic (buy good value) to have the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to invest with leverage over many decades.

What do we do when we are not Warren Buffett?

May I introduce the Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) for those who want to invest like Warren Buffet, but know they are not.  This course is based on my 50 plus years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Extending Wealth

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to create a three point strategy, like Buffett’s even though they do not have a lot of time for or knowledge about investing.

Pi reveals investing secrets and the sciences that make investing easy, safer, less time consuming and increases the chances of profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the cash.  One tactic as mentioned is staying power.  This means not being caught short and having to sell during a period of loss.  This also means having enough faith in a strategy that we stick to the plan.  When we invest with purpose, doing what we love, we enjoy the process more and are more likely to hold on during down times, when most poor investors panic and sell.

Slow, Worry Free, Good Value Investing

Stress, worry and fear are three of an investor’s worst enemies.  They create the Behavior Gap, a trait exhibited by most investors, that causes them to underperform any market sector they choose.  The behavior gap is created by natural human responses to fear.   Pi helps create profitable strategies that avoid losses from this gap.

Spanning the Behavior Gap

Behavior gaps are among the biggest reasons why so many investors fail.  Human evolution makes fear the second most powerful motivator.  (Greed is the third.)  Fear creates investment losses due to behavior gaps.  Fear motivates us more strongly than desire.  By nature investors are risk adverse.

Winning investors though embrace risk because they have a plan based on good value.

Purpose is the most powerful motivator,  stronger than fear and greed, so a strategy with purpose is the most powerful of all.

Combine your needs and capabilities with good value secrets and the math to back up your value selections through the Pifolio – The Pi Model Portfolio

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of a Primary Pi Model Portfolio, called the Pifolio.  There are no secrets about this portfolio except that it ignores the stories (often created by someone with vested interests) and is based entirely on good math.

The Pifolio is a theoretical portfolio of MSCI Country Benchmark Index ETFs that cover all the good value markets using my (almost) 50 years of global experience and my study of the analysis of four mathematical investing geniuses (and friends).

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of international major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1:  Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

We follow this research of a brilliant mathematician and have tracked this analysis for over 20 years.    This is a complete and continual study of international major and emerging stock markets.

This analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy.   The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.   This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use.  Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

A country ETF provides diversification and cost efficiency by spreading one simple, even small investment into a basket of equities in a good value stock market.  The costs are low and this type of ETF is one of the hardest for institutions to cheat.  Expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.

Little knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.  The investment is simply a diversified portfolio of good value indices.  Investments in an index are like investments in all the shares of a good value market.

Pi matches this mathematical certainty with my fifty years of experience. This opens insights to numerous long term cycles that most investors miss because they have not been investing long enough to see them.

For example in the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich.  Some of my readers made enough to retire.  Others picked up 50% currency gains.  Then the cycle ended.  Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview.  He said:  Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!”  Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar.

The two conditions are in place again!  There are currently ten good value (non US) developed markets,  plus 10 good value emerging markets.

Pi shows how to easily create a diversified, worry free portfolio in some of these good value markets using Country Index ETFs.

The current strength of the US dollar is a second remarkable similarity to 30 years ago.   The dollar rose along with Wall Street.  Profits came quickly over three years.  Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51%  in just two years.  A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago.  There is so much more to write and the trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More.”   This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments.  I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of  Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000).  There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but you’ll receive the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Leverage

Pi also explains when leverage provides extra potential without undo risk.  For example in 1986 I issued a report called “The Silver Dip” that showed how to borrow 12,000 British pounds (at almost 1.6 to 1 dollars per pound the loan created US$18,600) and use the loan to buy 3835 ounces of silver at around US$4.85 an ounce.

Silver had crashed, I mean really crashed from $48 per ounce.  As prices decreased from early 1983 into 1986, total supply had fallen to 449.7 million ounces in 1986.  Mine production was restricted by the low prices at this time, with silver reaching a low for this period of $4.85 in May 1986.  Secondary recovery also was constricted by these low prices.

Then silver’s price skyrocketed to over $11 an ounce within a year.  The $18,600 loan was now worth $42,185.

The loan was in pounds and in May 1986 the dollar pound rate was 1.55 dollars per pound.  So the 12,000 pound loan purchased $18,600 of silver.  The pound then crashed to 1.40 dollars per silver.  The loan could be paid off for $13,285 immediately creating an extra $5,314 profit.  The profit grew to $47,499 in just a year.

Conditions for the silver dip have returned.  The availability of low cost loans and silver are at an all time low.  The price of silver has crashed from nearly $50 an ounce to below $14 as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV).

finance.yahoo.com chart SLV

iShares Silver Trust (symbol SLV) from www.finance.yahoo.com

Imagine investing in a spike like this… with leverage!

At the same time the silver gold ratio hit 80, a strong sign to invest in precious metals.

I have updated a special report “Silver Dip 2019” about a leveraged silver speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.  The purpose of the report is to share long term lessons gained through 30 years of speculating and investing in precious metals.  While working on the report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80 and the price of silver dropped below $14 an ounce, I knew I needed to share this immediately.

I released a new report “Silver Dip 2015” so readers were able to take advantage of these conditions and leverage 1.6 times as a speculation.  That report generated profits as high as 212% and a revised 2019 issue has been produced.

“The Silver Dip 2109”  sells for $39.95 but  you receive  “Silver Dip 2019” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Save

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi).  The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription.  Plus you receive the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2019” free.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi.   Get the first monthly issue of Pi, and the report “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2019” right away.

#1:  I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free purposeful investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2:  I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3:  I guarantee you can keep “Three Currency Patterns For 50% Profits or More” and “The Silver Dip 2109” report as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear.   You have the ultimate form of financial security to gain.

Subscribe to the Pi for $197.   You Save $158.95.

Your subscription will be charged $299 a year from now, but you can cancel at any time.

Gary