Tag Archive | "Barbara Humphrey;"

Multi Currency Predictions Feb. 2009


We made several multi currency predictions at our February 2009 International Investing & Business Course in Cotacachi, Ecuador. The investing and business portion concluded yesterday. We are now inspecting Ecuador property.

We used many approaches to process information about how markets and economies might move.

We viewed currencies at the technical level and saw that Jyske Global Asset Management (JGAM) had closed their British pound recommendation.

This is the fine detailed view… the technical end of investing,  Peter Laub of JGAM showed how JGAM had recommended investing in pounds at 1.3750 with a stop loss at 1.3700. Peter explained how the pound dropped to 1.3703 before rising to 1.4500.  JGAM took profit on the backslide to 1.4300.

We looked at economic fundamentals and discussed the February 10, 2009 New York Times article   “Bailout Plan: $2.5 Trillion and a Strong U.S. Hand”  by Edmund  Andrews and Stephen  Labaton  which said:

WASHINGTON — The White House plan to rescue the nation’s financial system, announced on Tuesday by Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary, is far bigger than anyone predicted and envisions a far greater government role in markets and banks than at any time since the 1930s.

Administration officials committed to flood the financial system with as much as $2.5 trillion — $350 billion of that coming from the bailout fund and the rest from private investors and the Federal Reserve, making use of its ability to print money.

We compared the inflationary impact of this bailout with the deflationary impact of a 20% contraction in the $14 trillion economy.  This looks like a wash that could bring an economic balance at the cost of the US dollar’s parity to  other currencies.

We viewed how seasonality was at work. Over 30 years the Dow has frown 8.16%  overall but all of that growth and more (8.36% per annum average)  have come in in the months of November through April. The average annual growth per annum over thirty years in May  to October is only 0.37%.   In other words… history suggests that every day we move closer to May, the chances of a stock market correction in 2009 diminish.

We viewed the economic cycle and saw that we are reaching the phase of the economic cycle when we should be coming out of cash and bonds and into  shares as:

* Interest rates are down.

* There is a rush for liquidity.

* Employment is growing.

* Uncertainty is high.

multi-currecny-predictions

We looked at the fact that we have plenty of time… no hurry. We can wait and see.  We have time to choose and pick…  the best bargains and values.

We even looked at how the planets and full moon affect investors. There is a historic link in the general trend of world affairs and the the cycles of Jupiter and Saturn.    History suggests that when  these planets are in a good phase it is been auspicious for the world and vice verse.

The cycles of these planets are about 12 years and 30 years which ties into the market cycles we track.

The chart below shows the historical relationship.

We viewed this chart  from a Maharishi Vedic Astrology prediction by Siebelt Meyera in February 1997.

multi-currency-markets

The chart is a bit hard to see here so here is what it reads in the troughs:

1914 Start of WW I

1939 Start f WWII

1962 Cuban Crisis

1973 Yom Kippur War

1997 Economic meltdown in Asia

Since 1991, the cycle has been in their downward trends and reached its lowest in 1997 when Jupiter was debilitated, and in 1998 when Saturn will be debilitated. From 1999 onwards the value will slowly and reach a peak value again between 2012 and 2015.  This suggests a slow recovery over the next three years.

All of this confirmed that we should not expect a quick recovery and reconfirmed our recommendation to do nothing now. Maintain a defensive position and wait for opportunity to present itself.

We reviewed my personal portfolio to see how I am doing this.

Liquid Portfolio  Allocation

Cash  23%
Bonds  61%
Shares 16%

Liquid Portfolio Currency Allocation

Brazilian real              4%
Denmark kroner      33%
euro                            31%
British pound          10%
Turkey Lira                8%
US$                           14%

Total Asset Allocation

Cash  21%
Shares 2%
Emerging Shares .5%
Bonds 17.5%
Emerging Bonds  8%
Ecuador Real Estate 9%
US Agricultural Land 12%
Residential Property 10%
Commercial Property 20%

My Cash Currency Breakdown

USD   14%
GBP  4%
Norwegian kroner 1%
Swedish kroner 1%
Other 1%

My Shares

Bank of Florida  .5%
Jyske Bank  .5%
Turkey Equity Fund .5%
European Equity Fund 1%

My Bonds

Swedish Bond Fund  2%
Euro Bond Fund 4.5%
Danish Bond Fund 7%
ELF Aquitain  EUR 4.500% 23.03.2009  1.5%
Caisse D‚Amort Dette  EUR 12.07.2009  1.5%
Rabobank NL    CAD 4.250% 2009           1%

My Emerging Bonds

Hungary Gvt.    HUF 6.250%12.08.2009   1%
Hungary Gvt.    HUF 6.750%12.02.2013     1%
Emerging Market Bond fund  2.5%
European Investment BK TRY Bond  1.5%
Brazil    BRL  12.500% 05.01.2016          1%
China    EUR  1%

My US Real Estate

US Agricultural Land  12%
Residential Property  10%
Commercial Property 21%

My Ecuador Real Estate

Ecuador Andean residential 2%
Ecuador Coastal    5%
Ecuador Agricultural 2%

We also looked at the importance of investing in things we like.

We reviewed real estate investments in Cotacachi and on the Ecuador beach.

Delegates met Ecuador condo owners Bob & Barbara Humphrey. Here is Bob & Barbara at the Ecuador beach.

multi-currency-predictions

Bob & Barbara live in Telluride Colorado in the summer. Bob has retired from his diving business… flies his own plane and races cars (Shelby Cobra).  Barbara is a Feng Shui expert who lectures globally on this subject.

Like many of our readers Bob & Barbara have a condo both in Cotacachi and on the beach at Vistaazul Beach Condos.

We packed incredible amounts of information into three days but had fun as well.

There was plenty of time for delegates to talk and share what they learned.  Here are several delegates talking, US, Australian and Canadian.

multi-currency-predictions

Plus JGAM hosted a Valentine’s Day wine & cheese reception on Saturday night.

multi-currency-predictions

Andean musicians performed.

Multi-currency-predictions

There was Andean music… a Conga line began.

multi-currency-predictions

Andean dancers entertained.

multi-currency-predictions

There is an excellent organic vineyard and Swiss cheese factory near Cotacachi.  They are both for sale (the properties) and we are viewing them on today’s real estate tour.  For the party we just enjoyed the products, three excellent Swiss cheeses…

multi-currency-predictions

plus excellent wines.

multi-currency-predictions

The photographers in the group were having fun.

multi-currency-predictions

The youngest delegate was a bit bewildered.

multi-currency-predictions

Here is the key advice from that course.   Hold off. Wait. Do Not hurry. opportunities abound but we have plenty of time to pick them up. There could be another drop in May before a gradual recovery.  Invest with care… but invest with passion. Do things fulfilling as well as profitable. Enjoy the process as well as the end results.

Regards

Gary

Join us in Cotacachi and on Ecuador Coast in March.

Merri, our webmaster and I have created a new course on how to build a web business with a webmaster.  Here is a special offer on this new course.

You can enroll in this special course for $299. However if you sign up for our three courses in March 2009, I will send it to you free. You save $299.

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 10-15 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

March 16-19 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Bob Shane will be at our March courses and will be available to provide health balancing.

Get our web based course FREE if you join us in Ecuador this February or March.

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two

Future 2009 courses

May 29-31  JGAM Global Asset Strategy Seminar

June 12-14 Shamanic Mingo Tour
June 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
June 18-21 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 3-6     Ecuador Import Export Expedition
July 8-9    Imbabura Real Estate Tour
July 10-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 9-11     IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

Nov. 6-8    IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Ecuador Beach Restaurants


Ecuador beach restaurants offer wonderful variety, excellent food and really low prices.

Sunday lunch is great, so here are some of the wonderful Ecuador beach restaurants where you might find Merri and me enjoying a Sunday meal.

In Manta for a quick bite we visit the Oro Verde cafe.  The Oro Verde hotel is in the center of Manta.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

Bread and pastry, as a general rule, are not Ecuador’s best specialties. Not true at the Oro Verde!  Merri and I have lived in many countries including places with great pastry such as France, Germany, Austria, Swiaterland and Italy.

The Oro Verde has pastries as good as any we have ever enjoyed. The Sundays papers and these pastries go well together.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

Sadly the Oro Verde coffee is the terrible, machine made Nestecafe cappuccino.  I put up with it though to enjoy the croissants and especially delicious cinnamon rolls.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

For good… quickly served, fresh, no frills seafood we visit Manta’s  beach and…

ecuador-beach-restuarants

the Oh Mar restaurant.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

A great seafood meal is about $6… or for something special… like this lobster for $12.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

Moving north to Crucita… we enjoy the cafe at the top of Balsamaraqua gated community.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

Open and airy, you can spend a Sunday afternoon enjoying this incredible view.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

Further north is San Clemente where we live and stay at Vistazul.

Here restaurants range from the high quality restaurant at Palmazul…

ecuador-beach-restuarants

where a Sunday dinner can run $17… but with a view.

Right on the beach…

ecuador-beach-restuarants

for special occasions and fine dining Palmazul is the place.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

When feeling more casual we amble a couple blocks to the Submarine beach restaurant…

ecuador-beach-restuarants really on the beach.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

Where a meal is $4 to $5. You cannot beat the location.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

Here we are with our friends Bob and Barbara Humphrey…

ecuador-beach-restuarants and Ma

ecuador-beach-restuarants

After a great seafood meal we stroll two blocks back to Palmazul on this beach.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

One really excellent, evening restaurant on the San Clemente beach…right next to Vistazul is Gabriel  Graziani’s  tiny beach shack restaurant.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

He serves delicious pizza and lazagna.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

in his hand made oven.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

He collects all the fresh ingredients and makes the food while you are there.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

Gabriel is the real deal when it comes to  Italian Pizza. See him preparing at  our You Tube

Further north is Bahia and there are several great places there starting with Casa Ceibo.

ecuador-beach-restuarants Elegant but pricey…by Ecuadorian standards.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

Well worth it once in awhile.

For snacks the cafe in la Piedre hotel cannot be beat…here I am with Kjetil Haugan as we overlook the Chone Estuary on a warm breezy afternoon.

ecuador-beach-restuarants

If you like value and seafood, this part of Ecuador from Manta to Bahia will serve you well.

Until next message may you enjoy your Sunday meal.

Gary

Join us in Cotacachi and on Ecuador Coast in March.

Merri, our webmaster and I have created a new course on how to build a web business with a webmaster.  Here is a special offer on this new course.

You can enroll in this special course for $299. However if you sign up for our three courses in March 2009, I will send it to you free. You save $299.

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

March 10-15 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

March 16-19 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Bob Shane will be at our March courses and will be available to provide health balancing.

Get our web based course FREE if you join us in Ecuador this March.

Attend any two Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$949 for one.  $1,349 for two

Attend any three Ecuador courses or tours in a calendar month…$1,199 for one.  $1,799 for two

Future 2009 courses

May 29-31  JGAM Global Asset Strategy Seminar

June 12-14 Shamanic Mingo Tour
June 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
June 18-21 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 3-6     Ecuador Import Export Expedition
July 8-9    Imbabura Real Estate Tour
July 10-13 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

July 24-26 IBEZ North Carolina

Sept. 17-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Sept. 23-24 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Sept. 25-28 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

Oct. 9-11     IBEZ North Carolina

Oct. 21-24 Ecuador Import Export Expedition

Nov. 6-8    IBEZ Ecuador
Nov. 9-10 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Nov. 11-14 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour

.