Tag Archive | "Bank of England"

Cotacachi Tours


We have over two dozen Cotacachi & Ecuador tours and courses scheduled in 2009. Many have asked what they are like…so let’s take a tour of the tour…then I’ll share an investing tip.

Our November International Business & Investing course began yesterday…so we’ll follow this group. This is a typical schedule…beginning with a course, then followed with an Adean real estate tour and concluding with a real estate tour on the Ecuador coast.

We try to schedule three courses together like this so delegates can choose one two or all three tours…whatever works best for them and this allows us to provide substantial discounts on the second and third tour.

Most delegates arrive in Quito the night before. Alberto, Steve and a few of our staff drive up to meet everyone and deliver them to a hotel (usually Hotel Quito or Radisson – we negotiate a discount for everyone so the hotel that offers the best deal gets the business) where they spend the night.

Next morning they all meet and have a ride around Quito before heading north to Cotacachi.

Before the main group is arrives, the staff at our Inn goes into hyerdrive bringing in fresh food. Here is our manager Franklin with makings for fresh vegetable soup.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

Consuelo and her helper follow.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

They fill up the bodega. Here is our chef Santiago checking the inventory.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

while his assistant Alberto starts the soup.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

A few early arrivals are already in the courtyard waiting and talking. Here a couple are discussing economics with Peter Laub of Jyske Bank.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

Eduardo and his assistant, prepares juice and quinoa cake for everyone to enjoy.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

This time Eduardo has created a mango alfalfa drink..delicious.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

Finally the bus arrives.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

Delegates disembark and the courtyard comes alive.

Cotacachi Ecuador Tour

Many friendships are made. Guests dine, sit round the fireplace and discuss what they expect…what they want…what they think we’ll learn.

Tomorrow we begin next door in the Museum’s meeting room at nine.

Cotacachi tours

Our hotel, of course, is fully booked so we place delagtes at La Mirage, several hostels as well as condos near the hotel.

Subject matter in the course begins with global economics and were to invest now. We have several speakers who join me. In this case Peer Laub of Jyske Global Asset Management (JGAM).

We look at the long term economic fundamentals at work and how investors can react now.

This week JGAM pointed out:

The main attention this week was the US presidential election. Up to the election we saw markets in Asia acting with euphoria due to positive signs of improved conditions in the credit markets as well as the prospect of Obama winning office. Europe and Wall Street continued with the positive sentiment and Tuesday became the strongest presidential election day rally in history. After the election celebrations, markets woke up to the outlook of a severe economic contraction and the euphoria turned into panic selling, with declines up to -10% over two days. Bank of England (BoE) chocked the market Thursday with an aggressive cut of 150 basis points on the key interest rate. This move sparked a mid day rally for 45 minutes until the European Central Bank (ECB) disappointed the market with only a 50 basis point reduction. The EUR/USD has been very volatile over the week ranging from 1,2520 to 1,3120 now trading at 1,2797. We anticipate other central banks to follow the US and EU with reductions over the next few weeks. “

Then we looked at how this volatility and lowering interest rates would create opportunity in bond markets…my message was “a golden bond opportunity is coming.”

Today we will be lookng at this as the course continues.

Until next message good global investing.

Gary

Join us at a course in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.

Jan. 16-21 Ecuador Spanish Course
Jan. 22-23 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
Jan. 24-27 Coastal Real Estate Tour

We’ll visit the Otavalo markets.

Ecuador-Project

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ
Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Cotacachi-meeting

Courses are centered around this open air courtyard in our colonial inn El Meson de las Flores.

March 8-9 Imbabura Real Estate Tour
March 10-15 Ecuador Export Expedition
March 16-19 Coastal Real Estate Tour

You are also invited to tag along to the beach where we visit all types of Ecuador beach property for sale. Here is one f our previous tours enjoying a visit to Vistazul condos.

Ecuador-Project

Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our entire schedule of 26 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009.

Multi Currency Ideas


Multi currency solutions to inflation are needed.

Inflation will certainly come from the current global economic bailout.

Every multi currency investor needs to mold a personal multi currency solution to meet their specific needs. Whatever individual tactic is used, it will normally work better if it includes multi currency diversification based on a search for multi currency value.

Yesterday’s message Multi Currency Warning looked at seven economic fundamentals that we can relay on during this downwards correction and stated:

The current rush to the US dollar and yen create a monumental opportunity! There will be a time to invest in the very currencies that are tumbling now.

Why am I sure of inflation?

One of the seven multi currency fundamentals (#2) is that: Government involvement in global economics and business may dampen the sharper acceleration of the natural financial rhythm but eventually makes the corrections worse.

A recent article in USA Today covering Alan Greenspan’s testimony to the US Congress said: that the “Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan told angry lawmakers” about his shock.

I wonder? We these angry OR frightened lawmakers? I suspect that a few weeks from election day the better word would have been SCARED.

Fear destroys reason if one is not trained to deal with it. Most of Western society is not trained to deal with fear. William James aptly put it this way.

“In civilized life it has at last become possible for large numbers of people to pass from the cradle to the grave without ever having had a pang of genuine fear. Many of us need an attack of mental disease to teach us the meaning of the word.”

Since politicians are also human beings they too lose reason when they give way to fear. They seem to definitely get a mental disease!

For example what is the cause of today’s economic crisis? Too much debt.

Yet yesterday’s BBC article entitled “Brown defending higher borrowing” says:

“Gordon Brown is defending his plans to increase government borrowing in order to tackle the economic downturn in a speech in London.

The prime minister is telling business leaders it is the right time to boost demand with government spending.

Opposition parties have attacked the current levels of debt, saying Britain is inadequately prepared for recession.

Leading economists have also criticised the government over its spending plans and called for tax cuts instead.

In a letter to a Sunday newspaper, a number of economists warned against an expansion of government spending as a way of stimulating the economy.

They described a focus on public works projects and higher spending as “misguided and discredited”.

The latest quarterly public debt figures hit a record £37.6 billion – higher than the whole of the previous year. Yet Brown said: The responsible course is to borrow now to maintain growth and output.”

I have little doubt that England’s debt will grow…as will America’s, and Europe’s and Japan’s because of…fear.

The borrowed money will be spent by government’s to, as Brown says, “kick start the economy”. The economy will recover but if the fundamental about government inefficiency remans true, it will not recover as it could and should.

The price of this borrowing will be inflation…the loss of purchasing power.

Now here is where frightened politics and politicians get involved.

The same BBC article also said:

“Over the weekend, Mr Brown paid a brief visit to Glenrothes in Scotland as part of a by-election campaign and made predictions food and fuel bills would begin to come down next year.

He also hinted falling oil prices could lead to further co-ordinated interest rate cuts.

“Now inflation is actually coming down over the next few months and that will mean that it gives scope to all the monetary authorities, including the Bank of England, round the world to make a decision about interest rates,” he told the BBC.”

Brown is probably wrong. Inflation will not come down…which is okay for those who know what to do.

Do not be misled. Chances are that Western governments will borrow more than they should. Inflation will follow.

If this belief is correct then the best investments will be shares, commodities and real estate in a diversified basket of strong currencies.

What will make a currency strong?

Fundamentals of currency value (purchasing power potential) include:

A: Interest rate.
B: Inflation rate a three levels – labor – wholesale and consumer prices.
C: Trade balance.
D: Current account.
E: Debt as % of GDP.
F: Debt as % of government income and spending.
G: Amount and velocity of direction in government deficit.

Ideally we want to invest in currencies of countries that offer an interest rate above the local inflation rate, that have a positive trade balance, current account, falling government debt and deficit versus government income.

This combination of qualities in a currency are as rare as hen’s teeth and will become even harder to find during and after this downturn.

As the Western economies stall, their imports will slow. This will slow growth in emerging economies. Governments everywhere will be pressed. Fear will grow. Reason will diminish and government borrowing will increase everywhere.

Inflation will grow. Multi currency investing will become increasingly a relative process….looking for the currencies that are least bad.

I hope to help you fight this inflation with multi currency investing!

Gary

We are studying three multi currency solutions to inflation in our multi currency course. You can subscribe to gain access to these ideas here.

Join us at one of our next to International investing courses in Cotacachi Ecuador this winter.

Learn more about economic safety this November. Join Merri, me, Steve, Kjetil Haugan or Thor Anderson of Vistazul and Peter Conradsen of Jyske Global Asset Management in Cotacachi Ecuador. We’ll review economic conditions, Ecuador real estate, my entire portfolio and investing and business ideas for the months ahead.

Nov 7-9 2008 International Investing and Business Made EZ Ecuador
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/international-business-made-ez-ecuador

Feb. 13-15 International Business & Investing Made EZ

See the wonderful balconies in the Primavera condos at for sale at $46,000 in Cotacachi.

multi-currency-Ecuador-condo-interior

Nov 10-11 Imbabura Real Estate tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-real-estat

Feb. 16-17 Imbabura Real Estate Tour

Then travel to the coast. Enjoy the Vistazul swimming pool on Ecuador’s Pacific.

Picture 9

November 12-15, 2008 Ecuador Coastal Real Estate Tour; Quito Real Estate Tour
https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-coastal-real-estate-tour

See discounts for two or more of these courses and tours

Enjoy Ecuador’s music.

Ecuador-music

Enjoy flowers and beauty.

Ecuador-flowers

Enjoy the friendly staff at our hotel.

international-club

Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our schedule of 26 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009.